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向巴老致敬
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-11-04
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-10-24
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-10-17
哎，立不起来
纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌超3%，昨日暴涨的房多多跌超27%
中概股盘初时段整体走弱。
纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌超3%，昨日暴涨的房多多跌超27%
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-10-16
不在，一直调整。。。。。不乐观
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-10-14
我不做空，只做多。80多一直持有
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-09-02
这票基本面怎么样？
@百万手速王：
$3M(MMM)$ 换手率太低了，还得继续涨。毕竟5%的股息在这里，光持有就已经跑赢无风险利率了。
$3M(MMM)$ 换手率太低了，还得继续涨。毕竟5%的股息在这里，光持有就已经跑赢无风险利率了。
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-08-23
$哥伦比亚国家石油(EC)$
垃圾票吗？
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-08-05
$苹果(AAPL)$
会跟，说明美股整体高估，我也抛
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-05-23
为什么都要发可转债？缺钱了？
可转债，京东发了！阿里要发？腾讯、美团“最可能”发？
之后可能是谁？
可转债，京东发了！阿里要发？腾讯、美团“最可能”发？
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向巴老致敬
向巴老致敬
·
2024-04-02
美联储的话能信吗？ 高筑墙广积粮才是正道
美联储：非必要，不降息
联储在大选年会避免干扰选情，可能更倾向于“谋定而后动”。
美联储：非必要，不降息
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21:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周四，中概股盘初时段整体走弱。截至发稿，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌幅超3%，昨日暴涨的房多多暴跌超27%，贝壳跌12%，哔哩哔哩跌超7%，蔚来跌超5%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车、京东跌超4%，拼多多跌3.87%，阿里巴巴跌超2%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88b76132db4c39d91668701e4c018375\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/512107c40376e1a26e3d3cf3914d849a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b823fa6c7d674b719a54def9b76b7c88","relate_stocks":{"HXC":"纳斯达克中国金龙指数","DUO":"房多多"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103596723","content_text":"周四，中概股盘初时段整体走弱。截至发稿，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌幅超3%，昨日暴涨的房多多暴跌超27%，贝壳跌12%，哔哩哔哩跌超7%，蔚来跌超5%，小鹏汽车、理想汽车、京东跌超4%，拼多多跌3.87%，阿里巴巴跌超2%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DUO":1.1,"HXC":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1796,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360438396985568,"gmtCreate":1729038156107,"gmtModify":1729038158042,"author":{"id":"3565127729443109","authorId":"3565127729443109","name":"向巴老致敬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e694ef4aca4595a70ad820fb8832cf6c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565127729443109","authorIdStr":"3565127729443109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不在，一直调整。。。。。不乐观","listText":"不在，一直调整。。。。。不乐观","text":"不在，一直调整。。。。。不乐观","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360438396985568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359957829533824,"gmtCreate":1728912087871,"gmtModify":1728912089627,"author":{"id":"3565127729443109","authorId":"3565127729443109","name":"向巴老致敬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e694ef4aca4595a70ad820fb8832cf6c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565127729443109","authorIdStr":"3565127729443109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我不做空，只做多。80多一直持有","listText":"我不做空，只做多。80多一直持有","text":"我不做空，只做多。80多一直持有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359957829533824","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":345065395933464,"gmtCreate":1725236791055,"gmtModify":1725236792853,"author":{"id":"3565127729443109","authorId":"3565127729443109","name":"向巴老致敬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e694ef4aca4595a70ad820fb8832cf6c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565127729443109","authorIdStr":"3565127729443109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这票基本面怎么样？","listText":"这票基本面怎么样？","text":"这票基本面怎么样？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/345065395933464","repostId":"331770398740520","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":331770398740520,"gmtCreate":1722005687490,"gmtModify":1722005688829,"author":{"id":"3442881788388879","authorId":"3442881788388879","name":"百万手速王","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/bb3291853da6afb3ac7acb6f16c40903","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3442881788388879","authorIdStr":"3442881788388879"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMM\">$3M(MMM)$ </a> 换手率太低了，还得继续涨。毕竟5%的股息在这里，光持有就已经跑赢无风险利率了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMM\">$3M(MMM)$ </a> 换手率太低了，还得继续涨。毕竟5%的股息在这里，光持有就已经跑赢无风险利率了。","text":"$3M(MMM)$ 换手率太低了，还得继续涨。毕竟5%的股息在这里，光持有就已经跑赢无风险利率了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331770398740520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341442710429992,"gmtCreate":1724380588485,"gmtModify":1724381389056,"author":{"id":"3565127729443109","authorId":"3565127729443109","name":"向巴老致敬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e694ef4aca4595a70ad820fb8832cf6c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565127729443109","authorIdStr":"3565127729443109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EC\">$哥伦比亚国家石油(EC)$ </a> 垃圾票吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EC\">$哥伦比亚国家石油(EC)$ </a> 垃圾票吗？","text":"$哥伦比亚国家石油(EC)$ 垃圾票吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341442710429992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335025369493664,"gmtCreate":1722826246629,"gmtModify":1722826248016,"author":{"id":"3565127729443109","authorId":"3565127729443109","name":"向巴老致敬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e694ef4aca4595a70ad820fb8832cf6c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565127729443109","authorIdStr":"3565127729443109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 会跟，说明美股整体高估，我也抛","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> 会跟，说明美股整体高估，我也抛","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 会跟，说明美股整体高估，我也抛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335025369493664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308990259204280,"gmtCreate":1716464820037,"gmtModify":1716464822071,"author":{"id":"3565127729443109","authorId":"3565127729443109","name":"向巴老致敬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e694ef4aca4595a70ad820fb8832cf6c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565127729443109","authorIdStr":"3565127729443109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"为什么都要发可转债？缺钱了？","listText":"为什么都要发可转债？缺钱了？","text":"为什么都要发可转债？缺钱了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308990259204280","repostId":"1114056708","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1114056708","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1716456132,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114056708?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-05-23 17:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"可转债，京东发了！阿里要发？腾讯、美团“最可能”发？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114056708","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"之后可能是谁？","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>汇丰分析认为，之后美团、腾讯、网易和拼多多可能跟进可转债发行，其中腾讯、美团可能性最大。</strong></p></blockquote><p>京东发行可转债，阿里也要跟进，之后可能是谁？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">周三，知情人士称阿里考虑发行可转债，拟募集约50亿美元资金，之后阿里港股跌超5%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3f9d27c4953dba1e1c55885cb72a44a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此前，5月21日京东宣布拟发行总规模达17.5亿美元可转债，此后京东港股连跌三日，今日再度跌超4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc7336435cb50981af480be47603457e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">京东表示，此次可转债发行将使其能够利用低融资成本（0.25%的票息率）加速当前股价的股票回购过程，转股价是45.7%，市价溢价大约35%。<br/>对此，汇丰表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">互联网公司利用债券市场来增强股东回报并不意外，当前高利率环境下，可转债相比普通债券提供了更好融资选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">京东下跌也不意外，历史上互联网公司发行可转债后，股价短期内往往会出现下跌。<strong>过去三年中，公告后的第一天股价平均下跌8%，到第30天下跌23%。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">谁将可能继续跟进？汇丰认为：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>偏好美团、腾讯、网易和拼多多，我们估计美团和腾讯是最有可能发行可转债的公司，网易则可能保持更多的防御性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在分析谁会跟进时投资者应该关注四大指标：<strong>1）股价表现：</strong>B站、京东和腾讯音乐在过去一个月中表现最好；<strong>2）离岸流动性：</strong>腾讯、爱奇艺、B站、百度和美团有美元净债务；<strong>3）股东回报与现金头寸</strong>：腾讯今年股票回购和股息预计将占净现金头寸140%或更多，其次是京东42%、微博35%；<strong>4）历史可转债发行</strong>：过去五年中爱奇艺发行四次，B站三次，拼多多两次。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>可转债，京东发了！阿里要发？腾讯、美团“最可能”发？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n可转债，京东发了！阿里要发？腾讯、美团“最可能”发？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-05-23 17:22 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715596><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>汇丰分析认为，之后美团、腾讯、网易和拼多多可能跟进可转债发行，其中腾讯、美团可能性最大。京东发行可转债，阿里也要跟进，之后可能是谁？周三，知情人士称阿里考虑发行可转债，拟募集约50亿美元资金，之后阿里港股跌超5%。此前，5月21日京东宣布拟发行总规模达17.5亿美元可转债，此后京东港股连跌三日，今日再度跌超4%。京东表示，此次可转债发行将使其能够利用低融资成本（0.25%的票息率）加速当前股价的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715596\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8d19411b72336a96ec6d1727be13e1","relate_stocks":{"JD":"京东","03690":"美团-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴","00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3715596","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1114056708","content_text":"汇丰分析认为，之后美团、腾讯、网易和拼多多可能跟进可转债发行，其中腾讯、美团可能性最大。京东发行可转债，阿里也要跟进，之后可能是谁？周三，知情人士称阿里考虑发行可转债，拟募集约50亿美元资金，之后阿里港股跌超5%。此前，5月21日京东宣布拟发行总规模达17.5亿美元可转债，此后京东港股连跌三日，今日再度跌超4%。京东表示，此次可转债发行将使其能够利用低融资成本（0.25%的票息率）加速当前股价的股票回购过程，转股价是45.7%，市价溢价大约35%。对此，汇丰表示：互联网公司利用债券市场来增强股东回报并不意外，当前高利率环境下，可转债相比普通债券提供了更好融资选择。京东下跌也不意外，历史上互联网公司发行可转债后，股价短期内往往会出现下跌。过去三年中，公告后的第一天股价平均下跌8%，到第30天下跌23%。谁将可能继续跟进？汇丰认为：偏好美团、腾讯、网易和拼多多，我们估计美团和腾讯是最有可能发行可转债的公司，网易则可能保持更多的防御性。在分析谁会跟进时投资者应该关注四大指标：1）股价表现：B站、京东和腾讯音乐在过去一个月中表现最好；2）离岸流动性：腾讯、爱奇艺、B站、百度和美团有美元净债务；3）股东回报与现金头寸：腾讯今年股票回购和股息预计将占净现金头寸140%或更多，其次是京东42%、微博35%；4）历史可转债发行：过去五年中爱奇艺发行四次，B站三次，拼多多两次。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1.1,"03690":1.1,"BABA":1.1,"JD":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":290863466746104,"gmtCreate":1712037474735,"gmtModify":1712037739808,"author":{"id":"3565127729443109","authorId":"3565127729443109","name":"向巴老致敬","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e694ef4aca4595a70ad820fb8832cf6c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565127729443109","authorIdStr":"3565127729443109"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美联储的话能信吗？ 高筑墙广积粮才是正道","listText":"美联储的话能信吗？ 高筑墙广积粮才是正道","text":"美联储的话能信吗？ 高筑墙广积粮才是正道","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/290863466746104","repostId":"1165975250","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1165975250","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1712033238,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165975250?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-04-02 12:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储：非必要，不降息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165975250","media":"雪涛宏观笔记","summary":"联储在大选年会避免干扰选情，可能更倾向于“谋定而后动”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储“没必要、没空间、没动力”降息，也会尽量避免货币政策干扰大选，用“口头降息”代替实际调整是现实选择，市场降息预期将继续推迟和下调。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f584753c03dbafbf683e0a9eaf66606\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"529\"/></p><blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1930233551\">前言：</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前美国经济从各个方面看均并未表现出疲态——新增就业持续修复，薪资增速稳定，居民实际收入持续改善，企业端盈利强劲，非住宅投资高增势头不减——降息的内在紧迫性不足，年内75bp的市场降息预期或继续下调。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，疫后通胀预期明显高于疫情前水平，叠加潜在增速推升实际中性利率，美联储可能系统性低估了名义中性利率，导致当前加息水平的限制性不足。未来如果油价快速上升推高通胀预期，不排除联储转向极度鹰派甚至再加息的可能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">联储在大选年会避免干扰选情，可能更倾向于“谋定而后动”，尽量用“口头加/降息”代替实际的货币政策调整，美债利率将继续在高位维持较长时间。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_4145155316\" style=\"text-align: start;\">（一）降息，没必要</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美国经济基本面健康，近期通胀水平持续反弹，减弱了美联储降息的必要性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美国劳动力市场依然紧平衡。</strong>职位空缺数自2023年中开始便维持在约880万人水平，并未随着高利率的维持而进一步放缓。<strong>失业率连续25个月低于4%水平，是1969年以来的最长纪录</strong>；就业扩散指数进入2024年后也有所回升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2336f8dae620e565337ca3f168e2762\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"679\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>三个月月均非农新增就业持续反弹</strong>，总就业人数已高于疫情前约550万人，回归至疫情前的趋势水平。<strong>各类薪资增速指标同比均保持在4%左右，居民实际购买力持续修复</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1ed7ba5b4bc60a1579b84fae80f73c6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"686\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>非住宅投资与制造业投资保持高增，企业税后收入连续四个季度反弹，与固定投资保持良性增长</strong>。反映美国中小企业情况的Markit制造业与服务业PMI均升至荣枯线以上水平，<strong>企业盈利与居民薪资增长的良性循环仍在延续</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/032090a467fc563b33f6b047af1b5a57\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0a86d710ebfac51ffd0ced0e070b328\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"730\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前美国的新增就业持续修复，薪资同比增速稳定在4%，居民实际收入持续改善。企业端盈利保持强劲，非住宅投资高增势头不减。<strong>从各个方面看，美国经济都未表现出疲态，联储没有急于降息的必要。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_218916626\" style=\"text-align: start;\">（二）降息，没空间</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近半年来，美国通胀下降速率趋缓，<strong>核心CPI三个月平均环比折年率持续反弹，并有进一步上升的趋势；超级核心CPI亦连续反弹，环比稳定在0.4%左右水平</strong>。核心商品已结束去通胀并随库存周期进入反弹，而核心服务依然颇具粘性。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264c5fb0b29e4514e401430bd434b54d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"683\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2022年以来房租和房价的去通胀程度并未完全反映房价回落，未来住房通胀或将随着房价的反弹带来新的通胀压力。<strong>火热的就业市场与难弥合的劳动力供需缺口或将推动美国超级核心通胀的二次反弹。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">疫后通胀预期明显高于疫情前水平，叠加潜在增速推升实际中性利率，<strong>美联储或系统性低估名义中性利率，导致当前利率水平的限制性十分有限。这也是美国经济和劳动力市场在高利率下依然具备较强韧性的原因。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">名义中性利率是一个复杂的度量，最直接的参考来自于美联储每季度更新的SEP中对长期名义利率的估计，<strong>24年3月会议提高10bp至2.6%</strong>，是2019年底以来该预测首次高于2.5%水平。而过去一年间，联储官员模糊地表示中性利率在<strong>2.5%-3%附近</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6c45da257d6c733a94c2aaba45c05f5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"392\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>无论是2.6%还是3%的名义中性利率水平，可能都是被低估的，当前名义中性利率或在3.8%。</strong>其中，实际中性利率应大于疫情前<strong>1%</strong>的水平。从HLW模型外推，中性利率应该在<strong>1.2%</strong>。而布鲁金斯学会相对激进的模型测算认为当前美国实际中性利率在<strong>1.7%</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/310567ad7d858b7da75465ae536c5db5\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"871\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>其次，疫情后美国通胀预期明显上升，而非美联储所认为的保持不变。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>消费者视角下</strong>的通胀预期调查（密歇根大学通胀预期调查、纽约联储SCE与亚特兰大联储的企业通胀预期调查），均显示当前美国通胀预期已小幅高于疫情前水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91e0a10c1fde9bc2b854f3fd197a19f8\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"622\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而<strong>投资者视角下</strong>的通胀预期也明显抬升，无论是5y5y的相对远期通胀预期，还是各期限的盈亏平衡通胀率都高于疫情前平均水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3af119c4b5067496e14cbd92e67f1415\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"733\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">即使取实际利率和通胀预期的平均值计算，<strong>当前美国名义中性利率也在3.8%左右（实际利率1.2%+通胀预期2.6%），与当前3-5年期美债利率4.2%左右相比，利率对经济和通胀的限制性并不明显。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前地缘政治格局复杂多变，俄乌冲突悬而未决。<strong>若出现地缘政治冲突加剧引发油价快速上升，将进一步推升通胀预期，不排除在油价大幅上涨的极端情形下，联储转向极度鹰派甚至再加息的可能。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_1870146346\" style=\"text-align: start;\">（三）降息，没动力</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>除了美国基本面依然强劲外，美联储“谋定而后动”的另一考量是避免介入美国大选。</strong>美联储若开启降息周期，会将本就焦灼的选情推向更复杂维度，增加选举不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美联储若降息，可能会进一步推高通胀预期；特别是认为降息有助于拜登的看法，可能适得其反。</strong>根据Gallup统计，高达30%的选民将经济前景列为最关心的大选议题，通胀预期的脱锚将会导致居民实际购买力的恶化，反而不利于拜登选情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">我们预计<strong>联储将继续以“口头加/降息”为主，代替实际的货币政策调整</strong>，正如去年7月起所做的那样。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">去年7月，联储开启口头加息，先于7月FOMC会议纪要中指出“需要进一步证据确认通胀回落”，后于9月FOMC记者会表示“准备在适当的时候进一步加息”，将美债利率推升至5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而后联储又口头降息，在美债利率达到5%的当晚，鲍威尔在演讲中提到“收益率上升会降低加息的必要性”。随后，11月与12月FOMC声明中特意提到“金融条件已经收紧”，美债利率与金融条件此后迅速回落，带动各类信贷标准边际修复。美债利率回到起点，金融条件降至22年9月以来新低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>当前联储降息的必要性、空间和动力都不足，如果口头加息/降息还有用，又何必实质性调整。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>对于联储来说，“一动不如一静”可能是最好的选择，如果经济继续平稳前行，等大选尘埃落定后再做调整也不迟。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a68a1adf7935041af07b4c283aef5c29\" tg-width=\"982\" tg-height=\"619\"/></p></body></html>","source":"xthgbj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储：非必要，不降息</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储：非必要，不降息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-04-02 12:47 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzMzNzczNQ==&mid=2247507639&idx=1&sn=acf95d10ab0168b1df859ee54dfe9b93&chksm=e8867d45746223149f8f3cb80ce85c318c6982f26cc926fe6bad7282a106d972edcad47b4f62&scene=0&xtrack=1><strong>雪涛宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储“没必要、没空间、没动力”降息，也会尽量避免货币政策干扰大选，用“口头降息”代替实际调整是现实选择，市场降息预期将继续推迟和下调。前言：当前美国经济从各个方面看均并未表现出疲态——新增就业持续修复，薪资增速稳定，居民实际收入持续改善，企业端盈利强劲，非住宅投资高增势头不减——降息的内在紧迫性不足，年内75bp的市场降息预期或继续下调。另一方面，疫后通胀预期明显高于疫情前水平，叠加潜在增速推升...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzMzNzczNQ==&mid=2247507639&idx=1&sn=acf95d10ab0168b1df859ee54dfe9b93&chksm=e8867d45746223149f8f3cb80ce85c318c6982f26cc926fe6bad7282a106d972edcad47b4f62&scene=0&xtrack=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzI0MzMzNzczNQ==&mid=2247507639&idx=1&sn=acf95d10ab0168b1df859ee54dfe9b93&chksm=e8867d45746223149f8f3cb80ce85c318c6982f26cc926fe6bad7282a106d972edcad47b4f62&scene=0&xtrack=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165975250","content_text":"美联储“没必要、没空间、没动力”降息，也会尽量避免货币政策干扰大选，用“口头降息”代替实际调整是现实选择，市场降息预期将继续推迟和下调。前言：当前美国经济从各个方面看均并未表现出疲态——新增就业持续修复，薪资增速稳定，居民实际收入持续改善，企业端盈利强劲，非住宅投资高增势头不减——降息的内在紧迫性不足，年内75bp的市场降息预期或继续下调。另一方面，疫后通胀预期明显高于疫情前水平，叠加潜在增速推升实际中性利率，美联储可能系统性低估了名义中性利率，导致当前加息水平的限制性不足。未来如果油价快速上升推高通胀预期，不排除联储转向极度鹰派甚至再加息的可能。联储在大选年会避免干扰选情，可能更倾向于“谋定而后动”，尽量用“口头加/降息”代替实际的货币政策调整，美债利率将继续在高位维持较长时间。（一）降息，没必要美国经济基本面健康，近期通胀水平持续反弹，减弱了美联储降息的必要性。美国劳动力市场依然紧平衡。职位空缺数自2023年中开始便维持在约880万人水平，并未随着高利率的维持而进一步放缓。失业率连续25个月低于4%水平，是1969年以来的最长纪录；就业扩散指数进入2024年后也有所回升。三个月月均非农新增就业持续反弹，总就业人数已高于疫情前约550万人，回归至疫情前的趋势水平。各类薪资增速指标同比均保持在4%左右，居民实际购买力持续修复。非住宅投资与制造业投资保持高增，企业税后收入连续四个季度反弹，与固定投资保持良性增长。反映美国中小企业情况的Markit制造业与服务业PMI均升至荣枯线以上水平，企业盈利与居民薪资增长的良性循环仍在延续。当前美国的新增就业持续修复，薪资同比增速稳定在4%，居民实际收入持续改善。企业端盈利保持强劲，非住宅投资高增势头不减。从各个方面看，美国经济都未表现出疲态，联储没有急于降息的必要。（二）降息，没空间近半年来，美国通胀下降速率趋缓，核心CPI三个月平均环比折年率持续反弹，并有进一步上升的趋势；超级核心CPI亦连续反弹，环比稳定在0.4%左右水平。核心商品已结束去通胀并随库存周期进入反弹，而核心服务依然颇具粘性。2022年以来房租和房价的去通胀程度并未完全反映房价回落，未来住房通胀或将随着房价的反弹带来新的通胀压力。火热的就业市场与难弥合的劳动力供需缺口或将推动美国超级核心通胀的二次反弹。疫后通胀预期明显高于疫情前水平，叠加潜在增速推升实际中性利率，美联储或系统性低估名义中性利率，导致当前利率水平的限制性十分有限。这也是美国经济和劳动力市场在高利率下依然具备较强韧性的原因。名义中性利率是一个复杂的度量，最直接的参考来自于美联储每季度更新的SEP中对长期名义利率的估计，24年3月会议提高10bp至2.6%，是2019年底以来该预测首次高于2.5%水平。而过去一年间，联储官员模糊地表示中性利率在2.5%-3%附近。无论是2.6%还是3%的名义中性利率水平，可能都是被低估的，当前名义中性利率或在3.8%。其中，实际中性利率应大于疫情前1%的水平。从HLW模型外推，中性利率应该在1.2%。而布鲁金斯学会相对激进的模型测算认为当前美国实际中性利率在1.7%。其次，疫情后美国通胀预期明显上升，而非美联储所认为的保持不变。消费者视角下的通胀预期调查（密歇根大学通胀预期调查、纽约联储SCE与亚特兰大联储的企业通胀预期调查），均显示当前美国通胀预期已小幅高于疫情前水平。而投资者视角下的通胀预期也明显抬升，无论是5y5y的相对远期通胀预期，还是各期限的盈亏平衡通胀率都高于疫情前平均水平。即使取实际利率和通胀预期的平均值计算，当前美国名义中性利率也在3.8%左右（实际利率1.2%+通胀预期2.6%），与当前3-5年期美债利率4.2%左右相比，利率对经济和通胀的限制性并不明显。当前地缘政治格局复杂多变，俄乌冲突悬而未决。若出现地缘政治冲突加剧引发油价快速上升，将进一步推升通胀预期，不排除在油价大幅上涨的极端情形下，联储转向极度鹰派甚至再加息的可能。（三）降息，没动力除了美国基本面依然强劲外，美联储“谋定而后动”的另一考量是避免介入美国大选。美联储若开启降息周期，会将本就焦灼的选情推向更复杂维度，增加选举不确定性。美联储若降息，可能会进一步推高通胀预期；特别是认为降息有助于拜登的看法，可能适得其反。根据Gallup统计，高达30%的选民将经济前景列为最关心的大选议题，通胀预期的脱锚将会导致居民实际购买力的恶化，反而不利于拜登选情。我们预计联储将继续以“口头加/降息”为主，代替实际的货币政策调整，正如去年7月起所做的那样。去年7月，联储开启口头加息，先于7月FOMC会议纪要中指出“需要进一步证据确认通胀回落”，后于9月FOMC记者会表示“准备在适当的时候进一步加息”，将美债利率推升至5%。而后联储又口头降息，在美债利率达到5%的当晚，鲍威尔在演讲中提到“收益率上升会降低加息的必要性”。随后，11月与12月FOMC声明中特意提到“金融条件已经收紧”，美债利率与金融条件此后迅速回落，带动各类信贷标准边际修复。美债利率回到起点，金融条件降至22年9月以来新低。当前联储降息的必要性、空间和动力都不足，如果口头加息/降息还有用，又何必实质性调整。对于联储来说，“一动不如一静”可能是最好的选择，如果经济继续平稳前行，等大选尘埃落定后再做调整也不迟。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}