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Freshpie
IP属地:浙江
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2021-05-01
本人被迫长持……如今解套,还是再捏一下,就怕由跌回去
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2021-02-11
$Transenterix Inc(TRXC)$
哇,平生第一次三倍股,趁着没回落先发一下。
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8
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10
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2021-01-22
$Nano Dimension Ltd.(NNDM)$
终于
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1
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2021-01-22
$Foley Trasimene Acquisition II Corp(BFT)$
还行啊,以为你没气了
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2021-01-20
$Transenterix Inc(TRXC)$
太疯狂了
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2021-01-09
$蔚来(NIO)$
有生以来第一次的翻倍股
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3
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20
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2021-01-08
$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$
为啥多了不少英文评论? Where are all these English comments coming from?
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7
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1
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2020-12-29
……我还以为是高盛预测的。这是公众号自己预测?
美股暴跌,只剩6个月?
2000年、2008年和2018年,这个风险指数都分别达到了10年来的最高水平,美股随后都遭遇了暴跌。结果,就是疫情袭击之下,2020年3月份的暴跌,高盛惨遭打脸。现在,2020年即将过去,美股不仅反弹至前高,还远超出前高,高盛这个“美股风险模型”的高度预见性,由此可略见一斑。就用美股估值、失业率、通胀率、ISM指数和收益率曲线扁平程度这5个指标来进行平均,目前的美股风险指数大约是68%。
美股暴跌,只剩6个月?
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2020-12-04
$一起教育科技(YQ)$
中了十股,当开观察仓
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3,036
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2
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Freshpie
Freshpie
·
2020-11-25
云集跟抖音开始合作是十月份的事情好吗。
盘前:理想小鹏蔚来暴跌!与抖音合作云集暴涨超40%
11月25日,美国股指期货涨跌不一,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.17%;标普500指数期货跌0.04%;纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.31%。中概造车新势力盘前跌幅扩大,理想汽车跌12%,小鹏汽车跌近10%
盘前:理想小鹏蔚来暴跌!与抖音合作云集暴涨超40%
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Inc(TRXC)$哇,平生第一次三倍股,趁着没回落先发一下。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929536bc2ff16a33b5e57f20bde49070","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381473400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5017,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544572238091832","authorId":"3544572238091832","name":"zeroxu666","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3544572238091832","authorIdStr":"3544572238091832"},"content":"诶,1.9卖了","text":"诶,1.9卖了","html":"诶,1.9卖了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":310209523,"gmtCreate":1611327721362,"gmtModify":1703749791640,"author":{"id":"3565659373109967","authorId":"3565659373109967","name":"Freshpie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bb15c356d6801c4ea4e6717737541b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565659373109967","authorIdStr":"3565659373109967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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Acquisition II Corp(BFT)$</a>还行啊,以为你没气了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BFT\">$Foley Trasimene Acquisition II Corp(BFT)$</a>还行啊,以为你没气了","text":"$Foley Trasimene Acquisition II Corp(BFT)$还行啊,以为你没气了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95279c8a09b34e1fb49972f97e0dbe35","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/310111040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337623758,"gmtCreate":1611137603274,"gmtModify":1703748259010,"author":{"id":"3565659373109967","authorId":"3565659373109967","name":"Freshpie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bb15c356d6801c4ea4e6717737541b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565659373109967","authorIdStr":"3565659373109967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRXC\">$Transenterix Inc(TRXC)$</a>太疯狂了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRXC\">$Transenterix Inc(TRXC)$</a>太疯狂了","text":"$Transenterix Inc(TRXC)$太疯狂了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/269e59044f22a424efc0b725526b57ce","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337623758","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336462184,"gmtCreate":1610124378448,"gmtModify":1703743008282,"author":{"id":"3565659373109967","authorId":"3565659373109967","name":"Freshpie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bb15c356d6801c4ea4e6717737541b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565659373109967","authorIdStr":"3565659373109967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>有生以来第一次的翻倍股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>有生以来第一次的翻倍股","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$有生以来第一次的翻倍股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3ab91319a9b66acc106c3fa7201c992","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":20,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336462184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"148517032854539","authorId":"148517032854539","name":"包大人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3907671502f1c301a4d36e44cf7ab2d","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"148517032854539","authorIdStr":"148517032854539"},"content":"怎么弄出这个图啊?","text":"怎么弄出这个图啊?","html":"怎么弄出这个图啊?"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336559652,"gmtCreate":1610118597376,"gmtModify":1703742888203,"author":{"id":"3565659373109967","authorId":"3565659373109967","name":"Freshpie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bb15c356d6801c4ea4e6717737541b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565659373109967","authorIdStr":"3565659373109967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$</a> 为啥多了不少英文评论? Where are all these English comments coming from?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$</a> 为啥多了不少英文评论? Where are all these English comments coming from?","text":"$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$ 为啥多了不少英文评论? Where are all these English comments coming from?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336559652","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436825511","authorId":"3562670436825511","name":"上了飞机老师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f05edd9e1dfe2801c7d5b00683313e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562670436825511","authorIdStr":"3562670436825511"},"content":"地推?","text":"地推?","html":"地推?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":333607491,"gmtCreate":1609250537613,"gmtModify":1703738413024,"author":{"id":"3565659373109967","authorId":"3565659373109967","name":"Freshpie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bb15c356d6801c4ea4e6717737541b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565659373109967","authorIdStr":"3565659373109967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"……我还以为是高盛预测的。这是公众号自己预测?","listText":"……我还以为是高盛预测的。这是公众号自己预测?","text":"……我还以为是高盛预测的。这是公众号自己预测?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/333607491","repostId":"2095573820","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2095573820","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1609245600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2095573820?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-12-29 20:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"美股暴跌,只剩6个月?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2095573820","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"2000年、2008年和2018年,这个风险指数都分别达到了10年来的最高水平,美股随后都遭遇了暴跌。结果,就是疫情袭击之下,2020年3月份的暴跌,高盛惨遭打脸。现在,2020年即将过去,美股不仅反弹至前高,还远超出前高,高盛这个“美股风险模型”的高度预见性,由此可略见一斑。就用美股估值、失业率、通胀率、ISM指数和收益率曲线扁平程度这5个指标来进行平均,目前的美股风险指数大约是68%。","content":"<p>在2017年9月份的时候,顶级投行<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>出了一份报告,报告的题目,叫做:<b>熊市的必要条件(Bear Necessities)。</b></p><p>具体的内容呢,就是分析了美股过去200年来的30次股票市场大跌的情况,找出他们之间最大的共同点。</p><p>报告分析了40个宏观指标、市场指标和技术指标,结果发现,并没有任何一个指标能包打天下,每一次都准确指示股市即将大跌,但的确有一些指标还是非常有指示性——例如,从宏观经济来看,熊市基本都发生在经济增长变缓、股市高估值且央行即将升息的环境中。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffff917a9aaa41a3acaa22c3f0ea8bbb\" tg-width=\"607\" tg-height=\"370\"></p><p>为此,该报告提出了5个股市即将大跌的必要指标异常:</p><p><b>1)估值水平(一般用Shiller PE表示)</b></p><p>如果股市本身在低位,跌也跌不了多少,所以股市估值高位是大跌的一个必要条件,但,反过来并不成立——股市估值高,并不一定马上引发大跌,高估值可以持续很久。</p><p><b>2)失业率</b></p><p>如果经济遭遇衰退,企业利润受到打击,一定会造成失业率大幅度上升,所以,在股市大跌之前,失业率一定有一个不断走低的过程,然后才会出现上升。</p><p><b>3)通胀率</b></p><p>通货膨胀上升,通常是经济繁荣周期末的信号,而且可能促使央行收紧货币政策,引发经济融资成本上升,造成经济衰退和熊市——不过,由于央行对利率的操纵,导致利率变化滞后于经济中的自然利率,通货膨胀在走高的时候,股市通常就已经先跌为敬,通胀高点是大跌的滞后指标。</p><p><b>4)ISM指数</b></p><p>ISM的全称是“美国供应管理协会(Instituteof Supply Management)”,其每月公布的采购经理人指数(PMI)及制造业指数(通常被简称为ISM指数),代表着着美国乃至全球经济在生产领域的状态,当这两个指标由高点开始回落的时候,通常意味着经济开始变差,公司的盈利减少,是非常明显的经济领先指标。</p><p><b>5)收益率曲线</b></p><p>“收益率曲线(YC)”概念,我以往曾多次普及过,而在股市大跌之前,通常都会出现收益率曲线扁平化的现象——长期利率(通常用10年期国债收益率)与短期利率(2年或3个月国债收益率)趋同甚至倒挂,通常是短期的国债收益率上升(央行加息),而长期的国债收益率下降(避险资金涌入抬高国债价格),收益率扁平化会让商业银行丧失向经济体投放信贷的动力,所以预示着经济短期内的回落,股市可能面临大跌。</p><p>到了2019年,高盛又对这个报告进行了补充,特意补充了一个指标:</p><p><b>6)私营部门的收支平衡,</b>通过计算居民及企业收入与支出差额,衡量金融过热风险。</p><p> 然后,对上述6项指标所处的历史百分位数取平均值,就可以得到美股的<b>“风险指数”</b>了。</p><p>下图,就是1955-2019年底65年的美股风险指数(灰色竖条为美股暴跌期)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65fac8e477374a5b945fed4520731154\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"594\"></p><p>一般而言,这个风险指数高于60%,那么回撤的风险会明显加大,风险指数越高,回撤幅度通常也越大,如果到达顶点(通常在70%以上),基本意味着大跌在即;当风险指数低于40%时,股市上涨的可能性更大,而且其值越低,股市的上涨的空间也越大。</p><p>高盛的报告,还将美股暴跌分为突发事件类熊市(半年即可恢复)、经济衰退类熊市(2年左右才能恢复)、结构错位类熊市(超预期的经济深度衰退,恢复时间可长达10年),而高盛所发明的这个美股风险指标,除个别突发事件类熊市之外,对于所有类型的美股暴跌,都具有良好的指示作用。</p><p>2000年、2008年和2018年,这个风险指数都分别达到了10年来的最高水平,美股随后都遭遇了暴跌。2018年大跌之后,由于2019年该指数持续下降,所以,高盛2019年底大胆预测,2020年美国不会遭遇经济衰退,美股牛市将延续……</p><p>结果,就是疫情袭击之下,2020年3月份的暴跌,高盛惨遭打脸。</p><p>但是,我并不想说这个指标无效——恰恰相反的是,我认为这个指数非常有效,2020年的疫情袭击叠加沙特原油价格战叠加美国公司债危机,才使得2020年3月份的暴跌如此迅猛。</p><p>然而,就在美股暴跌至最低点的时候,根据上述模型,高盛又发出了明确的预测,声称2020年结束的时候,美股标普500的点位将恢复到3200点左右,我特意还将那张图保留下来(见下图)。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5924125783b94574bb5f36676130a503\" tg-width=\"774\" tg-height=\"587\"></p><p>现在,2020年即将过去,美股不仅反弹至前高,还远超出前高,高盛这个“美股风险模型”的高度预见性,由此可略见一斑。</p><p>目前,高盛并没有公布,最新的美股风险值到底是多少,但我们可以通过分解指标来测算一下。</p><p>1)美股当前的估值水平,按照席勒市盈率,仅次于2000年科技股泡沫,在Shiller PE所处的历史百分位为95%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73c43ae1b1a4438ba190d2df0a899015\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"474\"></p><p>2)美国失业率:处于疫情爆发以来的低点,约处于近10年40%分位的水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e118d8a1a2574259a4dc3ae4e582a7f0\" tg-width=\"1013\" tg-height=\"579\"></p><p>3)美元通货膨胀率:目前正在抬升,处于过去10年40%历史分位水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e60f46d4eaec42378fe64529d1ef773a\" tg-width=\"1046\" tg-height=\"589\"></p><p>4)ISM指数:受益于美国疫情救助法案,美国的中小企业和居民收入暴增,美国人民有了钱,当然是买买买了,企业生产自然要迎合这种消费,所以目前美国的PMI,基本已经抬升到了近10年来的最高点,处于过去10年历史93%分位的水平。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c6bff4af22a49dea04d93f615abd380\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"530\"></p><p>5)收益率曲线扁平程度,用10年期-2年期国债收益率表示,其扁平程度在2019年底到达顶点,在美联储将基准利率降至0之后,基差有所恢复,目前的长短利率差,约处于70%的历史低位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bd7affdf8ef4739966f16e4e7618e84\" tg-width=\"813\" tg-height=\"581\"></p><p>6)私营部门收支平衡:这个指标我无法获取历史数据,暂且放弃。</p><p><b>就用美股估值、失业率、通胀率、ISM指数和收益率曲线扁平程度这5个指标来进行平均,目前的美股风险指数大约是68%。</b></p><p>68%的指标值,已经明显高于2019年底的61%,接近2018年底69%的水平。</p><p>就在这两天,美国又推出了9000亿美元的财政刺激计划,这必将进一步推升美国的通胀率,而美国的PMI已经处于高位下滑中,而长短债利差在美联储购买国债的操纵之下,也很难有效抬升,如果美国的失业率开始稳定,那么——<b>美股的大跌时刻,很快就会来临。</b></p><p>跳一次大神的话,我个人判断,如果美股在未来半年内继续上涨,并且上半年标普指数就涨至4000点左右的话,暴跌发生的时段,很可能在2021年年中前后。</p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股暴跌,只剩6个月?</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股暴跌,只剩6个月?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-12-29 20:40 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-8SHIdpI44aF8KfuN0mD3g><strong>财主家的余粮</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在2017年9月份的时候,顶级投行高盛出了一份报告,报告的题目,叫做:熊市的必要条件(Bear Necessities)。具体的内容呢,就是分析了美股过去200年来的30次股票市场大跌的情况,找出他们之间最大的共同点。报告分析了40个宏观指标、市场指标和技术指标,结果发现,并没有任何一个指标能包打天下,每一次都准确指示股市即将大跌,但的确有一些指标还是非常有指示性——例如,从宏观经济来看,熊市基本...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-8SHIdpI44aF8KfuN0mD3g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31992235e2d733c9c23402f8622ffd51","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/-8SHIdpI44aF8KfuN0mD3g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2095573820","content_text":"在2017年9月份的时候,顶级投行高盛出了一份报告,报告的题目,叫做:熊市的必要条件(Bear Necessities)。具体的内容呢,就是分析了美股过去200年来的30次股票市场大跌的情况,找出他们之间最大的共同点。报告分析了40个宏观指标、市场指标和技术指标,结果发现,并没有任何一个指标能包打天下,每一次都准确指示股市即将大跌,但的确有一些指标还是非常有指示性——例如,从宏观经济来看,熊市基本都发生在经济增长变缓、股市高估值且央行即将升息的环境中。为此,该报告提出了5个股市即将大跌的必要指标异常:1)估值水平(一般用Shiller PE表示)如果股市本身在低位,跌也跌不了多少,所以股市估值高位是大跌的一个必要条件,但,反过来并不成立——股市估值高,并不一定马上引发大跌,高估值可以持续很久。2)失业率如果经济遭遇衰退,企业利润受到打击,一定会造成失业率大幅度上升,所以,在股市大跌之前,失业率一定有一个不断走低的过程,然后才会出现上升。3)通胀率通货膨胀上升,通常是经济繁荣周期末的信号,而且可能促使央行收紧货币政策,引发经济融资成本上升,造成经济衰退和熊市——不过,由于央行对利率的操纵,导致利率变化滞后于经济中的自然利率,通货膨胀在走高的时候,股市通常就已经先跌为敬,通胀高点是大跌的滞后指标。4)ISM指数ISM的全称是“美国供应管理协会(Instituteof Supply Management)”,其每月公布的采购经理人指数(PMI)及制造业指数(通常被简称为ISM指数),代表着着美国乃至全球经济在生产领域的状态,当这两个指标由高点开始回落的时候,通常意味着经济开始变差,公司的盈利减少,是非常明显的经济领先指标。5)收益率曲线“收益率曲线(YC)”概念,我以往曾多次普及过,而在股市大跌之前,通常都会出现收益率曲线扁平化的现象——长期利率(通常用10年期国债收益率)与短期利率(2年或3个月国债收益率)趋同甚至倒挂,通常是短期的国债收益率上升(央行加息),而长期的国债收益率下降(避险资金涌入抬高国债价格),收益率扁平化会让商业银行丧失向经济体投放信贷的动力,所以预示着经济短期内的回落,股市可能面临大跌。到了2019年,高盛又对这个报告进行了补充,特意补充了一个指标:6)私营部门的收支平衡,通过计算居民及企业收入与支出差额,衡量金融过热风险。 然后,对上述6项指标所处的历史百分位数取平均值,就可以得到美股的“风险指数”了。下图,就是1955-2019年底65年的美股风险指数(灰色竖条为美股暴跌期)。一般而言,这个风险指数高于60%,那么回撤的风险会明显加大,风险指数越高,回撤幅度通常也越大,如果到达顶点(通常在70%以上),基本意味着大跌在即;当风险指数低于40%时,股市上涨的可能性更大,而且其值越低,股市的上涨的空间也越大。高盛的报告,还将美股暴跌分为突发事件类熊市(半年即可恢复)、经济衰退类熊市(2年左右才能恢复)、结构错位类熊市(超预期的经济深度衰退,恢复时间可长达10年),而高盛所发明的这个美股风险指标,除个别突发事件类熊市之外,对于所有类型的美股暴跌,都具有良好的指示作用。2000年、2008年和2018年,这个风险指数都分别达到了10年来的最高水平,美股随后都遭遇了暴跌。2018年大跌之后,由于2019年该指数持续下降,所以,高盛2019年底大胆预测,2020年美国不会遭遇经济衰退,美股牛市将延续……结果,就是疫情袭击之下,2020年3月份的暴跌,高盛惨遭打脸。但是,我并不想说这个指标无效——恰恰相反的是,我认为这个指数非常有效,2020年的疫情袭击叠加沙特原油价格战叠加美国公司债危机,才使得2020年3月份的暴跌如此迅猛。然而,就在美股暴跌至最低点的时候,根据上述模型,高盛又发出了明确的预测,声称2020年结束的时候,美股标普500的点位将恢复到3200点左右,我特意还将那张图保留下来(见下图)。现在,2020年即将过去,美股不仅反弹至前高,还远超出前高,高盛这个“美股风险模型”的高度预见性,由此可略见一斑。目前,高盛并没有公布,最新的美股风险值到底是多少,但我们可以通过分解指标来测算一下。1)美股当前的估值水平,按照席勒市盈率,仅次于2000年科技股泡沫,在Shiller PE所处的历史百分位为95%。2)美国失业率:处于疫情爆发以来的低点,约处于近10年40%分位的水平。3)美元通货膨胀率:目前正在抬升,处于过去10年40%历史分位水平。4)ISM指数:受益于美国疫情救助法案,美国的中小企业和居民收入暴增,美国人民有了钱,当然是买买买了,企业生产自然要迎合这种消费,所以目前美国的PMI,基本已经抬升到了近10年来的最高点,处于过去10年历史93%分位的水平。5)收益率曲线扁平程度,用10年期-2年期国债收益率表示,其扁平程度在2019年底到达顶点,在美联储将基准利率降至0之后,基差有所恢复,目前的长短利率差,约处于70%的历史低位。6)私营部门收支平衡:这个指标我无法获取历史数据,暂且放弃。就用美股估值、失业率、通胀率、ISM指数和收益率曲线扁平程度这5个指标来进行平均,目前的美股风险指数大约是68%。68%的指标值,已经明显高于2019年底的61%,接近2018年底69%的水平。就在这两天,美国又推出了9000亿美元的财政刺激计划,这必将进一步推升美国的通胀率,而美国的PMI已经处于高位下滑中,而长短债利差在美联储购买国债的操纵之下,也很难有效抬升,如果美国的失业率开始稳定,那么——美股的大跌时刻,很快就会来临。跳一次大神的话,我个人判断,如果美股在未来半年内继续上涨,并且上半年标普指数就涨至4000点左右的话,暴跌发生的时段,很可能在2021年年中前后。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":396825231,"gmtCreate":1607092043823,"gmtModify":1703846387733,"author":{"id":"3565659373109967","authorId":"3565659373109967","name":"Freshpie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bb15c356d6801c4ea4e6717737541b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565659373109967","authorIdStr":"3565659373109967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YQ\">$一起教育科技(YQ)$</a>中了十股,当开观察仓","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YQ\">$一起教育科技(YQ)$</a>中了十股,当开观察仓","text":"$一起教育科技(YQ)$中了十股,当开观察仓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/396825231","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":393291376,"gmtCreate":1606310316795,"gmtModify":1703842467507,"author":{"id":"3565659373109967","authorId":"3565659373109967","name":"Freshpie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93bb15c356d6801c4ea4e6717737541b","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3565659373109967","authorIdStr":"3565659373109967"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"云集跟抖音开始合作是十月份的事情好吗。","listText":"云集跟抖音开始合作是十月份的事情好吗。","text":"云集跟抖音开始合作是十月份的事情好吗。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/393291376","repostId":"1169080463","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169080463","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1606309496,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169080463?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-25 21:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前:理想小鹏蔚来暴跌!与抖音合作云集暴涨超40%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169080463","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"11月25日,美国股指期货涨跌不一,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.17%;标普500指数期货跌0.04%;纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.31%。中概造车新势力盘前跌幅扩大,理想汽车跌12%,小鹏汽车跌近10%","content":"<p>11月25日,美国股指期货涨跌不一,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.17%;标普500指数期货跌0.04%;纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.31%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b6832fb9112cc185a4b0a7fe957661\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"257\"></p><p>中概造车新势力盘前跌幅扩大,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌近10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车跌近8%。</p><p>部分热门中概股盘前走低,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNK\">蛋壳公寓</a>盘前跌超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌近3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>均跌超2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>盘前涨超44%,前一交易日大涨90%。云集于11月25日宣布,公司已经与字节跳动旗下的直播平台抖音签署了一项合作框架协议。通过双方合作,云集将利用其在线商店和抖音视频账号,介绍和推广更多来自其差异化供应链的优质产品。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUHN\">如涵控股</a>盘前涨近4%,公司今日收到来自三位创始人组成的买方团发出的初步非约束性私有化要约,计划以每股0.68美元(每ADS 3.4美元)收购目前所有流通A类股和B类股。董事会目前已组建特别委员会评估本要约。私有化价格较昨日收盘价存在12.2%的潜在升幅。但值得注意的是,如涵控股2019年上市时的IPO价为12.5美元,而私有化价格仅为3.4美元,较IPO价累计蒸发72.8%,而历史上私有化价格较招股价大幅折扣的私有化之路并不顺利。</p><p>Gap盘前跌近10%,Q3净利润同比下降32%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">蘑菇街</a>盘前涨近10%,将于11月30日公布其2021财年第二季度财报。</p><p>卡车界的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>Nikola盘前跌超15%,昨日收涨17%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普</a>涨近6%,第四财季个人电脑出货量创新高,并计划在2021财年将股息提高10%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNET\">世纪互联</a>盘前涨超21%,财报显示,世纪互联Q3净营收为12.458亿元,同比增长27%;归属股东的净利润为9714万元,相较去年同期净亏损为6946万元。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指涨跌不一,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数跌0.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.66%、法国CAC40涨0.14%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8074a60cac93ee15512028ba710899d8\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"351\"><b>原油</b></p><p>美、布两油上涨,截止发稿,WTI原油涨0.76%,报45.23美元/桶;布伦特原油涨0.73%,报48.14美元/桶。</p><p>新冠疫苗乐观消息的影响仍在发酵,美国股市再创记录新高,改善原油需求前景;而且特朗普同意向拜登团队交接,降低了市场对美国政局混乱的担忧情绪,拜登将全力抗击疫情,而且会为推出更大规模刺激计划努力,这些都有助于原油需求的回升。</p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>现货黄金微涨,截止发稿上涨0.40%,报1811.90美元/盎司。</p><p>因积极的疫苗消息、强劲的经济数据以及美国当选总统拜登开始正式过渡削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。美银的分析师团队下调了其对现货金价的预期,当前预计国际现货黄金价格在2020年底将跌至1775美元。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前:理想小鹏蔚来暴跌!与抖音合作云集暴涨超40%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n盘前:理想小鹏蔚来暴跌!与抖音合作云集暴涨超40%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-11-25 21:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月25日,美国股指期货涨跌不一,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.17%;标普500指数期货跌0.04%;纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.31%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b6832fb9112cc185a4b0a7fe957661\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"257\"></p><p>中概造车新势力盘前跌幅扩大,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌12%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌近10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车跌近8%。</p><p>部分热门中概股盘前走低,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DNK\">蛋壳公寓</a>盘前跌超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌近3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>均跌超2%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YJ\">云集</a>盘前涨超44%,前一交易日大涨90%。云集于11月25日宣布,公司已经与字节跳动旗下的直播平台抖音签署了一项合作框架协议。通过双方合作,云集将利用其在线商店和抖音视频账号,介绍和推广更多来自其差异化供应链的优质产品。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RUHN\">如涵控股</a>盘前涨近4%,公司今日收到来自三位创始人组成的买方团发出的初步非约束性私有化要约,计划以每股0.68美元(每ADS 3.4美元)收购目前所有流通A类股和B类股。董事会目前已组建特别委员会评估本要约。私有化价格较昨日收盘价存在12.2%的潜在升幅。但值得注意的是,如涵控股2019年上市时的IPO价为12.5美元,而私有化价格仅为3.4美元,较IPO价累计蒸发72.8%,而历史上私有化价格较招股价大幅折扣的私有化之路并不顺利。</p><p>Gap盘前跌近10%,Q3净利润同比下降32%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOGU\">蘑菇街</a>盘前涨近10%,将于11月30日公布其2021财年第二季度财报。</p><p>卡车界的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>Nikola盘前跌超15%,昨日收涨17%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普</a>涨近6%,第四财季个人电脑出货量创新高,并计划在2021财年将股息提高10%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNET\">世纪互联</a>盘前涨超21%,财报显示,世纪互联Q3净营收为12.458亿元,同比增长27%;归属股东的净利润为9714万元,相较去年同期净亏损为6946万元。</p><p><b>欧洲市场</b></p><p>欧洲主要股指涨跌不一,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数跌0.23%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VUKE.UK\">英国富时100</a>跌0.66%、法国CAC40涨0.14%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8074a60cac93ee15512028ba710899d8\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"351\"><b>原油</b></p><p>美、布两油上涨,截止发稿,WTI原油涨0.76%,报45.23美元/桶;布伦特原油涨0.73%,报48.14美元/桶。</p><p>新冠疫苗乐观消息的影响仍在发酵,美国股市再创记录新高,改善原油需求前景;而且特朗普同意向拜登团队交接,降低了市场对美国政局混乱的担忧情绪,拜登将全力抗击疫情,而且会为推出更大规模刺激计划努力,这些都有助于原油需求的回升。</p><p><b>黄金</b></p><p>现货黄金微涨,截止发稿上涨0.40%,报1811.90美元/盎司。</p><p>因积极的疫苗消息、强劲的经济数据以及美国当选总统拜登开始正式过渡削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。美银的分析师团队下调了其对现货金价的预期,当前预计国际现货黄金价格在2020年底将跌至1775美元。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed4ee39e6b0f45214393093d70ba81a8","relate_stocks":{"MOGU":"蘑菇街",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","RUHN":"如涵控股","JD":"京东","NIO":"蔚来",".DJI":"道琼斯","BABA":"阿里巴巴","YJ":"云集",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PDD":"拼多多","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","LI":"理想汽车","DNK":"蛋壳公寓"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169080463","content_text":"11月25日,美国股指期货涨跌不一,截至发稿,道指期货跌0.17%;标普500指数期货跌0.04%;纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.31%。中概造车新势力盘前跌幅扩大,理想汽车跌12%,小鹏汽车跌近10%,蔚来汽车跌近8%。部分热门中概股盘前走低,蛋壳公寓盘前跌超6%,拼多多跌超3%,贝壳跌近3%,京东、阿里巴巴均跌超2%。云集盘前涨超44%,前一交易日大涨90%。云集于11月25日宣布,公司已经与字节跳动旗下的直播平台抖音签署了一项合作框架协议。通过双方合作,云集将利用其在线商店和抖音视频账号,介绍和推广更多来自其差异化供应链的优质产品。如涵控股盘前涨近4%,公司今日收到来自三位创始人组成的买方团发出的初步非约束性私有化要约,计划以每股0.68美元(每ADS 3.4美元)收购目前所有流通A类股和B类股。董事会目前已组建特别委员会评估本要约。私有化价格较昨日收盘价存在12.2%的潜在升幅。但值得注意的是,如涵控股2019年上市时的IPO价为12.5美元,而私有化价格仅为3.4美元,较IPO价累计蒸发72.8%,而历史上私有化价格较招股价大幅折扣的私有化之路并不顺利。Gap盘前跌近10%,Q3净利润同比下降32%。蘑菇街盘前涨近10%,将于11月30日公布其2021财年第二季度财报。卡车界的特斯拉Nikola盘前跌超15%,昨日收涨17%。惠普涨近6%,第四财季个人电脑出货量创新高,并计划在2021财年将股息提高10%。世纪互联盘前涨超21%,财报显示,世纪互联Q3净营收为12.458亿元,同比增长27%;归属股东的净利润为9714万元,相较去年同期净亏损为6946万元。欧洲市场欧洲主要股指涨跌不一,截至发稿,德国DAX30指数跌0.23%,英国富时100跌0.66%、法国CAC40涨0.14%。原油美、布两油上涨,截止发稿,WTI原油涨0.76%,报45.23美元/桶;布伦特原油涨0.73%,报48.14美元/桶。新冠疫苗乐观消息的影响仍在发酵,美国股市再创记录新高,改善原油需求前景;而且特朗普同意向拜登团队交接,降低了市场对美国政局混乱的担忧情绪,拜登将全力抗击疫情,而且会为推出更大规模刺激计划努力,这些都有助于原油需求的回升。黄金现货黄金微涨,截止发稿上涨0.40%,报1811.90美元/盎司。因积极的疫苗消息、强劲的经济数据以及美国当选总统拜登开始正式过渡削弱了黄金的避险吸引力。美银的分析师团队下调了其对现货金价的预期,当前预计国际现货黄金价格在2020年底将跌至1775美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}