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- 哇哇咔咔哇哇咔咔
  ·2024-12-09
  回头再看，人家有内幕啊
  神秘资金，巨额期权做多中国
  今天海外热议“突然出现1.34亿美金期权做多中国”，国内媒体戏称为《这是谁家的儿子，又是谁家的孙子》....某行交易台进行了专业解读：两个做多中国的杠杆ETF吸引了注意力。自上周五，这两支ETF上出现了大量入平值看涨期权交易：港股标的– YINN：15万手 2026年1月 $27 看涨期权。而当FXI的波动率高达50%时，持有YINN一年需要FXI上涨30%才能回本。总的来说，看涨杠杆ETF在一个低波动率环境，即股价缓慢上涨中表现最好。
  神秘资金，巨额期权做多中国
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- 哇哇咔咔哇哇咔咔
  ·2024-07-17
  $(XPEV)$ 销量差的连国内新能源前十都进不去了，涨的莫名其妙。
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- 哇哇咔咔哇哇咔咔
  ·2024-05-10
  $极氪(ZK)$ 申购10000股，只给了20。我真的醉了。
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回头再看，人家有内幕啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379707310358784","repostId":"1150969365","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150969365","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1733494966,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150969365?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-12-06 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ETF</strong>。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\">其实，这两个ETF的看涨期权交易量和持仓量在九月份的上涨期间已经有了一波很大的提升，<strong><u>而这笔交易是九月/十月行情以来，出现的最大买量。</u></strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><em>（*富时中国50指数并非大家熟悉的富时中国A50指数，它追踪的是在港上市中国大盘股，其成分与恒生国企指数（HSCEI）相近）</em></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/896b74267a8187265ac676b240798939\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><u><br/></u>什么情形下杠杆ETF的表现最好？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">一支杠杆ETF在一段时间内的损益由三个部分组成：<strong>1）标的上涨下跌乘以杠杆倍数；2）杠杆的融资成本；3）每日再平衡带来的波动率成本。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">以YINN为例，其1年的融资成本估计为3.8%（部分可以被股息抵消）。假设其对应的无杠杆ETF – FXI在未来一年的波动率为28%（当前的1y IV），波动率拖累带来的成本为27.3%，加上融资成本，总持有成本为年化31.1%。也就是说，持有YINN一年的投资人需要FXI上涨近10%才能回本。而当FXI的波动率高达50%时，持有YINN一年需要FXI上涨30%才能回本。总的来说，<strong>看涨杠杆ETF在一个低波动率环境，即股价缓慢上涨中表现最好</strong>。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06ad883e7ac571c82424aca99ace9913\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>什么情形下杠杆做多ETF的表现会好过直接加杠杆买入多倍标的？</strong></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">杠杆ETF的每日再平衡，让其在一段时间的总损益呈非线性分布。<strong>在标的大幅上涨和大幅下跌时，杠杆做多ETF的损益会好过通过加固定杠杆买入多倍标的</strong>。即两者之差与标的的表现存在凹性，上、下各有一个盈亏平衡点（下图）</p></li><li><p style=\"text-align: start;\">以持有1年YINN和3倍固定杠杆FXI为例。参考2014年以来FXI的表现和波动率，YINN在2020年之前的FXI上涨中可以大幅跑赢3倍杠杆买入FXI，但是其很难在2020年之后的上涨中胜过FXI。这是因为2020年后有不少高波动率的回港中概股（主要是互联网）被纳入FXI追踪的富时中国50指数。科网股在2018年时只占FXI的10%，现在则占到43%，更多的高波动率科网股抬高了FXI的波动率。但是2020年以后，FXI在1年期间下跌的幅度明显增大，这时持有YINN的表现好过持有加杠杆的FXI，这主要也是受益于下方的盈亏平衡点对波动率不如上方的盈亏平衡点敏感</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22b5b18c74096d5ee81ba5086132bb46\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"318\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong>总结 – 中长期看好中国股票，应该买杠杆做多ETF的看涨期权，还是无杠杆ETF的看涨期权？</strong></p><ul style=\"list-style-type: disc;\"><li><p>港股 - YINN vs FXI：以当前期权价格对比历史标的价格变化，上一次YINN看涨期权跑赢是在2017年。即使2017年的牛市可以重现，因为科网股的加入，现在的FXI波动率已经高于8年前它还几乎全是国有银行、保险股时的波动率。在同样的杠杆下， 较高的波动率将让YINN更难如2017年时跑赢FXI。因此，除了超短线行情，<strong>对于看涨港股的投资人来说，FXI的Call Spread（看涨价差期权）可能是一个更好的工具</strong>。</p></li><li><p>A股 – CHAU vs ASHR：基于当前的价格，CHAU的看涨期权在历史上很少跑赢ASHR的看涨期权。可能是因为当前CHAU：ASHR的IV比值很高，<strong><u>让</u>CHAU的期权显得相对昂贵。</strong></p></li></ul></body></html>","source":"lsy1709533022050","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>神秘资金，巨额期权做多中国</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n神秘资金，巨额期权做多中国\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-12-06 22:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pIOmGXD8ydibBlXfuolHuQ><strong>信息平权</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今天海外热议“突然出现1.34亿美金期权做多中国”，国内媒体戏称为《这是谁家的儿子，又是谁家的孙子》....某行交易台进行了专业解读：两个做多中国的杠杆ETF吸引了注意力。自上周五，这两支ETF上出现了大量入平值（ATM）看涨期权交易：港股标的 – YINN（3倍做多富时中国50指数*ETF）：15万手 2026年1月 $27 看涨期权（权利金和行权价均值 – Premium：33.9%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pIOmGXD8ydibBlXfuolHuQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d8fb95e65f042f352c6313989391357","relate_stocks":{"YINN":"三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion","CHAU":"二倍做多沪深300(Direxion)"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pIOmGXD8ydibBlXfuolHuQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150969365","content_text":"今天海外热议“突然出现1.34亿美金期权做多中国”，国内媒体戏称为《这是谁家的儿子，又是谁家的孙子》....某行交易台进行了专业解读：两个做多中国的杠杆ETF吸引了注意力。自上周五，这两支ETF上出现了大量入平值（ATM）看涨期权交易：港股标的 – YINN（3倍做多富时中国50指数*ETF）：15万手 2026年1月 $27 看涨期权（权利金和行权价均值 – Premium：33.9%，Strike：97.6%）。美股市场上与之对应的非杠杆ETF是FXI – 中国大盘ETF。A股标的 – CHAU（2倍做多沪深300指数ETF）：20万手 2026年5月 $15 看涨期权 （权利金和行权价均值 – Premium：17.1%，Strike：97.3%）。美股市场上与之对应的非杠杆ETF是ASHR – 沪深300 ETF。其实，这两个ETF的看涨期权交易量和持仓量在九月份的上涨期间已经有了一波很大的提升，而这笔交易是九月/十月行情以来，出现的最大买量。（*富时中国50指数并非大家熟悉的富时中国A50指数，它追踪的是在港上市中国大盘股，其成分与恒生国企指数（HSCEI）相近）什么情形下杠杆ETF的表现最好？一支杠杆ETF在一段时间内的损益由三个部分组成：1）标的上涨下跌乘以杠杆倍数；2）杠杆的融资成本；3）每日再平衡带来的波动率成本。以YINN为例，其1年的融资成本估计为3.8%（部分可以被股息抵消）。假设其对应的无杠杆ETF – FXI在未来一年的波动率为28%（当前的1y IV），波动率拖累带来的成本为27.3%，加上融资成本，总持有成本为年化31.1%。也就是说，持有YINN一年的投资人需要FXI上涨近10%才能回本。而当FXI的波动率高达50%时，持有YINN一年需要FXI上涨30%才能回本。总的来说，看涨杠杆ETF在一个低波动率环境，即股价缓慢上涨中表现最好。什么情形下杠杆做多ETF的表现会好过直接加杠杆买入多倍标的？杠杆ETF的每日再平衡，让其在一段时间的总损益呈非线性分布。在标的大幅上涨和大幅下跌时，杠杆做多ETF的损益会好过通过加固定杠杆买入多倍标的。即两者之差与标的的表现存在凹性，上、下各有一个盈亏平衡点（下图）以持有1年YINN和3倍固定杠杆FXI为例。参考2014年以来FXI的表现和波动率，YINN在2020年之前的FXI上涨中可以大幅跑赢3倍杠杆买入FXI，但是其很难在2020年之后的上涨中胜过FXI。这是因为2020年后有不少高波动率的回港中概股（主要是互联网）被纳入FXI追踪的富时中国50指数。科网股在2018年时只占FXI的10%，现在则占到43%，更多的高波动率科网股抬高了FXI的波动率。但是2020年以后，FXI在1年期间下跌的幅度明显增大，这时持有YINN的表现好过持有加杠杆的FXI，这主要也是受益于下方的盈亏平衡点对波动率不如上方的盈亏平衡点敏感总结 – 中长期看好中国股票，应该买杠杆做多ETF的看涨期权，还是无杠杆ETF的看涨期权？港股 - YINN vs FXI：以当前期权价格对比历史标的价格变化，上一次YINN看涨期权跑赢是在2017年。即使2017年的牛市可以重现，因为科网股的加入，现在的FXI波动率已经高于8年前它还几乎全是国有银行、保险股时的波动率。在同样的杠杆下， 较高的波动率将让YINN更难如2017年时跑赢FXI。因此，除了超短线行情，对于看涨港股的投资人来说，FXI的Call Spread（看涨价差期权）可能是一个更好的工具。A股 – CHAU vs ASHR：基于当前的价格，CHAU的看涨期权在历史上很少跑赢ASHR的看涨期权。可能是因为当前CHAU：ASHR的IV比值很高，让CHAU的期权显得相对昂贵。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CHAU":1.1,"YINN":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328424536350728,"gmtCreate":1721210079552,"gmtModify":1721210175197,"author":{"id":"3566778785473291","authorId":"3566778785473291","name":"哇哇咔咔","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566778785473291","authorIdStr":"3566778785473291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$(XPEV)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 销量差的连国内新能源前十都进不去了，涨的莫名其妙。","listText":"<a 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销量差的连国内新能源前十都进不去了，涨的莫名其妙。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328424536350728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"32078873287423","authorId":"32078873287423","name":"锁侠","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/tiger_upload_file_1448529390.png","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"32078873287423","authorIdStr":"32078873287423"},"content":"有没有可能是因为它叠加了低空飞行概念呢","text":"有没有可能是因为它叠加了低空飞行概念呢","html":"有没有可能是因为它叠加了低空飞行概念呢"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":304384569921616,"gmtCreate":1715347149167,"gmtModify":1715348023570,"author":{"id":"3566778785473291","authorId":"3566778785473291","name":"哇哇咔咔","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566778785473291","authorIdStr":"3566778785473291"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZK\">$极氪(ZK)$</a> 申购10000股，只给了20。我真的醉了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZK\">$极氪(ZK)$</a> 申购10000股，只给了20。我真的醉了。","text":"$极氪(ZK)$ 申购10000股，只给了20。我真的醉了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6712566bafc9315ed086cd984acda63","width":"990","height":"1545"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304384569921616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}