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JR93
be disciplined, don't FOMO
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-18
[流泪]
Some Commodities Have Now Wiped Out All of Their 2021 Rally<blockquote>一些大宗商品现已抹去2021年的所有涨势</blockquote>
(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk of a commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the
Some Commodities Have Now Wiped Out All of Their 2021 Rally<blockquote>一些大宗商品现已抹去2021年的所有涨势</blockquote>
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-18
[呆住]
Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>
A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla
Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-17
[财迷]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-17
[呆住]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-16
[财迷]
General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading<blockquote>通用汽车股价早盘飙升逾3%</blockquote>
General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading. General Motors said on Wednesday it wil
General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading<blockquote>通用汽车股价早盘飙升逾3%</blockquote>
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-16
Be strong and improve please, otherwise Tesla will be slack.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
FSD
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-16
[呆住]
S&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote>
U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy. Th
S&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote>
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-16
SPACs without fundamental will be crash into ground one day
SPACs could stage a summer comeback<blockquote>SPAC可能会在夏季卷土重来</blockquote>
London (CNN Business) - Special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, were one of the stock marke
SPACs could stage a summer comeback<blockquote>SPAC可能会在夏季卷土重来</blockquote>
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-16
Dividends stock could be a death end too
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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JR93
JR93
·
2021-06-16
US market always the great investment
Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在2021年底走高的可能性很大，125年的历史支持了这一点</blockquote>
Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks GETTY IMAGES Odds are good that the U.S.
Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在2021年底走高的可能性很大，125年的历史支持了这一点</blockquote>
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","listText":"[流泪] ","text":"[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166624390","repostId":"1133723804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133723804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133723804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 16:51","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Some Commodities Have Now Wiped Out All of Their 2021 Rally<blockquote>一些大宗商品现已抹去2021年的所有涨势</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133723804","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk of a commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk of a commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the year and several more are close to doing so.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——尽管人们都在谈论大宗商品繁荣，但一些市场现在已经抹去了今年的涨幅，还有几个市场即将抹去。</blockquote></p><p> Soybean futures have erased their 2021 advance, sliding more than 20% from an eight-year high reached in May, while corn and wheat have also tumbled. The Bloomberg Grains Spot Subindex slid the most since 2009 on Thursday, before edging higher on Friday as markets recovered some losses. Other commodities that have seen their big rallies evaporate include platinum, while once-surging nickel, sugar and even lumber have faltered.</p><p><blockquote>大豆期货抹去了2021年的涨幅，较5月份触及的八年高点下滑了20%以上，而玉米和小麦也大幅下跌。彭博谷物现货分类指数周四出现2009年以来最大跌幅，周五随着市场收复部分失地而小幅走高。其他大幅上涨的大宗商品包括铂金，而一度飙升的镍、糖甚至木材都出现了动摇。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that some markets are falling while others -- including crude oil and tin -- are holding gains underscores how unevenly the complex is responding to economies reopening and expanding once again. While those materials have climbed on strong demand fundamentals, others face their own unique headwinds, such as an easing supply worries in soybeans and monetary policy uncertainty in the case of gold and silver.</p><p><blockquote>一些市场正在下跌，而包括原油和锡在内的其他市场则保持上涨，这一事实凸显了该综合体对经济重新开放和再次扩张的反应是多么不平衡。虽然这些材料因强劲的需求基本面而上涨，但其他材料也面临着自己独特的阻力，例如大豆供应担忧缓解以及黄金和白银货币政策的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Some materials also took a hit this week on the Federal Reserve’s signals for interest-rate increases, a rising dollar and China’s efforts to slow inflation. The Asian country has said it will release metals from state reserves in a timely manner to push prices back to a normal range, ramping up efforts to cool the surge in commodities.</p><p><blockquote>本周，一些材料也因美联储加息信号、美元升值以及中国减缓通胀的努力而受到打击。这个亚洲国家表示，将及时从国家储备中释放金属，以推动价格回到正常范围，加大力度为大宗商品的飙升降温。</blockquote></p><p> “Risk-off is front and center thanks to the hawkish words from the Fed, which came on the back of the Chinese government-led directives over prior weeks,” said Michael Cuoco, head of hedge-fund sales for metals and bulk materials at StoneX Group. “Central-bank stimulus helped the markets gather steam in the spring of 2020, and now there is a bit of a macro reset.”</p><p><blockquote>StoneX集团金属和大宗材料对冲基金销售主管迈克尔·库柯(Michael Cuoco)表示：“由于美联储在前几周中国政府主导的指令的支持下发表了鹰派言论，避险情绪占据了主导地位。”“央行的刺激措施帮助市场在2020年春季积聚动力，现在宏观上出现了一些重置。”</blockquote></p><p> Even some of the markets that are clearly benefiting from the reopening are seeing a pullback, with copper heading for its worst week in more than a year. A big backwardation in many commodities and seasonality accounts for some of the recent slump as futures contracts roll over, while improving weather is hurting prices of many agricultural products.</p><p><blockquote>甚至一些明显受益于重新开放的市场也出现了回调，铜价将迎来一年多来最糟糕的一周。随着期货合约的展期，许多大宗商品的大幅现货溢价和季节性是近期暴跌的部分原因，而天气的改善正在损害许多农产品的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Soybean futures in Chicago bounced more than 2% on Friday, but are still heading for a weekly loss of about 11%, the worst performance in seven years. Corn and wheat also recovered a part of Thursday’s declines.Base metals were mixed following losses on Thursday. Copper fell 0.8% on the London Metal Exchange and headed for its biggest weekly loss since March 2020. Nickel rose 0.9%. Iron ore slid 1.2% in Singapore.Precious metals rebounded, after substantial declines. Gold added 1.1%, while palladium rose about 3% after Thursday’s 11% slump.Chinese futures caught up with the overnight rout. Rapeseed and soybean oil slid, and copper and zinc dropped.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥大豆期货周五反弹逾2%，但仍向周跌幅约11%迈进，创七年来最差表现。玉米和小麦也收复了周四的部分跌幅。基本金属在周四下跌后涨跌互现。伦敦金属交易所铜价下跌0.8%，创2020年3月以来最大单周跌幅。镍涨0.9%。新加坡铁矿石下跌1.2%。贵金属在大幅下跌后反弹。黄金上涨1.1%，钯金在周四暴跌11%后上涨约3%。中国期货赶上了隔夜的溃败。菜籽、豆油下滑，铜、锌走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some Commodities Have Now Wiped Out All of Their 2021 Rally<blockquote>一些大宗商品现已抹去2021年的所有涨势</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome Commodities Have Now Wiped Out All of Their 2021 Rally<blockquote>一些大宗商品现已抹去2021年的所有涨势</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 16:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk of a commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the year and several more are close to doing so.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——尽管人们都在谈论大宗商品繁荣，但一些市场现在已经抹去了今年的涨幅，还有几个市场即将抹去。</blockquote></p><p> Soybean futures have erased their 2021 advance, sliding more than 20% from an eight-year high reached in May, while corn and wheat have also tumbled. The Bloomberg Grains Spot Subindex slid the most since 2009 on Thursday, before edging higher on Friday as markets recovered some losses. Other commodities that have seen their big rallies evaporate include platinum, while once-surging nickel, sugar and even lumber have faltered.</p><p><blockquote>大豆期货抹去了2021年的涨幅，较5月份触及的八年高点下滑了20%以上，而玉米和小麦也大幅下跌。彭博谷物现货分类指数周四出现2009年以来最大跌幅，周五随着市场收复部分失地而小幅走高。其他大幅上涨的大宗商品包括铂金，而一度飙升的镍、糖甚至木材都出现了动摇。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that some markets are falling while others -- including crude oil and tin -- are holding gains underscores how unevenly the complex is responding to economies reopening and expanding once again. While those materials have climbed on strong demand fundamentals, others face their own unique headwinds, such as an easing supply worries in soybeans and monetary policy uncertainty in the case of gold and silver.</p><p><blockquote>一些市场正在下跌，而包括原油和锡在内的其他市场则保持上涨，这一事实凸显了该综合体对经济重新开放和再次扩张的反应是多么不平衡。虽然这些材料因强劲的需求基本面而上涨，但其他材料也面临着自己独特的阻力，例如大豆供应担忧缓解以及黄金和白银货币政策的不确定性。</blockquote></p><p> Some materials also took a hit this week on the Federal Reserve’s signals for interest-rate increases, a rising dollar and China’s efforts to slow inflation. The Asian country has said it will release metals from state reserves in a timely manner to push prices back to a normal range, ramping up efforts to cool the surge in commodities.</p><p><blockquote>本周，一些材料也因美联储加息信号、美元升值以及中国减缓通胀的努力而受到打击。这个亚洲国家表示，将及时从国家储备中释放金属，以推动价格回到正常范围，加大力度为大宗商品的飙升降温。</blockquote></p><p> “Risk-off is front and center thanks to the hawkish words from the Fed, which came on the back of the Chinese government-led directives over prior weeks,” said Michael Cuoco, head of hedge-fund sales for metals and bulk materials at StoneX Group. “Central-bank stimulus helped the markets gather steam in the spring of 2020, and now there is a bit of a macro reset.”</p><p><blockquote>StoneX集团金属和大宗材料对冲基金销售主管迈克尔·库柯(Michael Cuoco)表示：“由于美联储在前几周中国政府主导的指令的支持下发表了鹰派言论，避险情绪占据了主导地位。”“央行的刺激措施帮助市场在2020年春季积聚动力，现在宏观上出现了一些重置。”</blockquote></p><p> Even some of the markets that are clearly benefiting from the reopening are seeing a pullback, with copper heading for its worst week in more than a year. A big backwardation in many commodities and seasonality accounts for some of the recent slump as futures contracts roll over, while improving weather is hurting prices of many agricultural products.</p><p><blockquote>甚至一些明显受益于重新开放的市场也出现了回调，铜价将迎来一年多来最糟糕的一周。随着期货合约的展期，许多大宗商品的大幅现货溢价和季节性是近期暴跌的部分原因，而天气的改善正在损害许多农产品的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Soybean futures in Chicago bounced more than 2% on Friday, but are still heading for a weekly loss of about 11%, the worst performance in seven years. Corn and wheat also recovered a part of Thursday’s declines.Base metals were mixed following losses on Thursday. Copper fell 0.8% on the London Metal Exchange and headed for its biggest weekly loss since March 2020. Nickel rose 0.9%. Iron ore slid 1.2% in Singapore.Precious metals rebounded, after substantial declines. Gold added 1.1%, while palladium rose about 3% after Thursday’s 11% slump.Chinese futures caught up with the overnight rout. Rapeseed and soybean oil slid, and copper and zinc dropped.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥大豆期货周五反弹逾2%，但仍向周跌幅约11%迈进，创七年来最差表现。玉米和小麦也收复了周四的部分跌幅。基本金属在周四下跌后涨跌互现。伦敦金属交易所铜价下跌0.8%，创2020年3月以来最大单周跌幅。镍涨0.9%。新加坡铁矿石下跌1.2%。贵金属在大幅下跌后反弹。黄金上涨1.1%，钯金在周四暴跌11%后上涨约3%。中国期货赶上了隔夜的溃败。菜籽、豆油下滑，铜、锌走低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amid-talk-supercycle-commodities-wipe-181326277.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amid-talk-supercycle-commodities-wipe-181326277.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133723804","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- For all the talk of a commodities boom, some markets have now wiped out gains for the year and several more are close to doing so.\nSoybean futures have erased their 2021 advance, sliding more than 20% from an eight-year high reached in May, while corn and wheat have also tumbled. The Bloomberg Grains Spot Subindex slid the most since 2009 on Thursday, before edging higher on Friday as markets recovered some losses. Other commodities that have seen their big rallies evaporate include platinum, while once-surging nickel, sugar and even lumber have faltered.\nThe fact that some markets are falling while others -- including crude oil and tin -- are holding gains underscores how unevenly the complex is responding to economies reopening and expanding once again. While those materials have climbed on strong demand fundamentals, others face their own unique headwinds, such as an easing supply worries in soybeans and monetary policy uncertainty in the case of gold and silver.\nSome materials also took a hit this week on the Federal Reserve’s signals for interest-rate increases, a rising dollar and China’s efforts to slow inflation. The Asian country has said it will release metals from state reserves in a timely manner to push prices back to a normal range, ramping up efforts to cool the surge in commodities.\n“Risk-off is front and center thanks to the hawkish words from the Fed, which came on the back of the Chinese government-led directives over prior weeks,” said Michael Cuoco, head of hedge-fund sales for metals and bulk materials at StoneX Group. “Central-bank stimulus helped the markets gather steam in the spring of 2020, and now there is a bit of a macro reset.”\nEven some of the markets that are clearly benefiting from the reopening are seeing a pullback, with copper heading for its worst week in more than a year. A big backwardation in many commodities and seasonality accounts for some of the recent slump as futures contracts roll over, while improving weather is hurting prices of many agricultural products.\nSoybean futures in Chicago bounced more than 2% on Friday, but are still heading for a weekly loss of about 11%, the worst performance in seven years. Corn and wheat also recovered a part of Thursday’s declines.Base metals were mixed following losses on Thursday. Copper fell 0.8% on the London Metal Exchange and headed for its biggest weekly loss since March 2020. Nickel rose 0.9%. Iron ore slid 1.2% in Singapore.Precious metals rebounded, after substantial declines. Gold added 1.1%, while palladium rose about 3% after Thursday’s 11% slump.Chinese futures caught up with the overnight rout. Rapeseed and soybean oil slid, and copper and zinc dropped.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166626119,"gmtCreate":1624007206931,"gmtModify":1631890620407,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","idStr":"3567160588479542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] ","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166626119","repostId":"1138044913","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138044913","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624006819,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138044913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 17:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138044913","media":"wsj","summary":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dolla","content":"<p>A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote></p><p> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.</p><p><blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote></p><p> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.</p><p><blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote></p><p> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.</p><p><blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote></p><p> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.</p><p><blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.</p><p><blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.</p><p><blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.</p><p><blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.</p><p><blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote></p><p> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.</p><p><blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote></p><p> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.</p><p><blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.</p><p><blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.</p><p><blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote></p><p> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote></p><p> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.</p><p><blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.</p><p><blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote></p><p> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote></p><p> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Red-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRed-Hot U.S. Economy Drives Global Inflation, Forcing Foreign Banks to Act<blockquote>炙手可热的美国经济推动全球通胀，迫使外资银行采取行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">wsj</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 17:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Covid-19感染水平仍然很高且本国经济复苏不完全，但蓬勃发展的美国经济正在推高全球通胀并推高美元，这正迫使一些央行加息。</blockquote></p><p> The world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.</p><p><blockquote>世界各国央行都在关注美联储将如何应对通胀上升，担心陷入美国经济异常扩张的逆流中。全球股市周四下跌，此前美联储官员表示，随着美国经济升温，他们预计将在2023年底前加息，早于3月份的预期。</blockquote></p><p> A global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.</p><p><blockquote>以美联储为中心的全球加息可能会扼杀一些地方的经济复苏，尤其是在新兴市场债务上升之际。</blockquote></p><p> The size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美国经济规模占世界国内生产总值的近四分之一，其金融市场的重要性长期以来对全球政策制定产生了巨大的影响。但美国今年异常强劲的增长对于仍在从去年的冲击中复苏的世界经济至关重要。根据周三发布的预测，美联储官员预计美国经济今年将增长7%。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.</p><p><blockquote>俄罗斯、巴西和土耳其的央行最近几周提高了利率，部分原因是为了抑制今年大宗商品价格飙升引发的通胀。随着世界各地的工厂努力满足美国的需求，从锡到铜等大宗商品的价格飙升。</blockquote></p><p> “With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦牛津经济研究院经济学家塔玛拉·基础·瓦西里耶夫表示：“考虑到疫情带来的所有后果，这些国家现在最不需要的就是收紧政策。”</blockquote></p><p> A U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.</p><p><blockquote>美国经济繁荣通过增加美国进口和汇款来支持世界各地的经济。但它也推高了借贷成本和通胀，并使美元走强，从而收紧了全球金融状况，抑制了经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> The pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.</p><p><blockquote>疼痛感觉不均匀。美元走强损害了以美元借款的新兴市场经济体，同时帮助了欧洲和东亚的大型出口商，这些出口商的产品相对于美国出口更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> In advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.</p><p><blockquote>在发达经济体，央行行长们大多认为，除非消费者预计通胀将持续并要求更高的工资，否则通胀上升将是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> While central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.</p><p><blockquote>虽然央行认为这种情况不会很快发生，但一些经济学家认为他们可能会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.</p><p><blockquote>法国巴黎银行首席全球经济学家路易吉·斯佩兰萨表示：“我认为这种暂时的价格冲击很可能会变得更加持久。”斯佩兰萨指出，当下一轮薪酬谈判于今年年底开始时，德国的通胀率可能在4%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，欧洲和日本央行需要配合美联储的鸽派立场，以免本币飙升，从而破坏经济复苏。如果通胀比预期更持久，围绕美联储的微妙舞蹈可能会被打破，这可能会引发加息的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> “To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德宏观研究主管埃尔加·巴奇(Elga Bartsch)表示：“为了防止欧元走强，[欧洲央行]需要像美联储一样采取鸽派立场，由于通胀和增长动态不同，这可能是一场斗争。”</blockquote></p><p> Emerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.</p><p><blockquote>然而，新兴市场经济体往往没有等待的奢侈。即使是短暂的通胀爆发也会对其货币造成沉重压力，并损害公司和家庭偿还通常以美元或欧元计价的债务的能力。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.</p><p><blockquote>美联储已表示，将注意避免重演2013年的“缩减恐慌”，当时发展中国家的央行被迫对外国投资的突然撤出做出反应，此前美联储表示正在考虑缩减刺激计划，令投资者感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> “So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示：“因此，我们对这一过程的意图是有序、有条不紊和透明。”“我可以告诉你，我们看到提前沟通我们的想法是有价值的。我们会尽量说清楚。”</blockquote></p><p> But with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.</p><p><blockquote>但随着全球通胀加速以及美联储开始改变方针，一些央行的考量正在发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> Brazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.</p><p><blockquote>巴西央行周三宣布连续第三次加息0.75个百分点，并暗示未来可能会更大幅度加息，因为它正在努力应对8%以上的通胀。</blockquote></p><p> The Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>俄罗斯央行今年已三次上调基准利率至5.5%，此前本月通胀率加速至6%以上，为近五年来的最高水平。周二，俄罗斯州长埃尔维拉·纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)表示，俄罗斯将继续加息，预计这不会阻碍经济增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”</p><p><blockquote>纳比乌林娜在俄罗斯议会下院发表讲话时表示：“我们在相当长一段时间内一直保持低利率，以确保不会扼杀经济复苏的翅膀。”“现在是加息以应对环境变化和通胀上升的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> Turkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.</p><p><blockquote>土耳其央行3月份将主要利率大幅提高至19%，以应对两位数的通胀和里拉贬值。但土耳其里拉最近几周再次面临压力，投资者试图评估央行是否会听从总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安的降息要求。</blockquote></p><p> Recent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>最近新鲜农产品的价格上涨提高了所谓的罗宋汤套餐——俄罗斯深受喜爱的汤所需的蔬菜——这是许多俄罗斯人的风向标。自年初以来，土豆、卷心菜和胡萝卜的价格上涨了60%至80%。</blockquote></p><p> In poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.</p><p><blockquote>在贫穷国家，更大份额的支出通常用于食品和能源等必需品，因此当这些价格上涨时，政策制定者会更快地抑制通胀。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.</p><p><blockquote>斯堪的纳维亚和韩国央行已暗示计划收紧货币政策，以抑制可能出现的资产泡沫，尤其是房地产泡沫。挪威央行周四暗示将在9月加息。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.</p><p><blockquote>包括匈牙利和捷克共和国在内的中欧央行预计也将很快加息。在大流行期间，它们没有遭受与法国和西班牙等欧洲大国相同规模的收缩，但通胀正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> Iain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司固定收益首席投资官Iain Stealey表示，美联储可能会设法避免“缩减恐慌”重演。</blockquote></p><p> “It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个非常漫长、缓慢的过程……考虑到通胀的意外上行，很难不这样做，”斯蒂利先生说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，尽管如此，耐心的方法还是存在问题。</blockquote></p><p> “This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行首席全球经济学家克劳斯·巴德尔表示：“这种让通胀升温的想法……意味着只有当你已经存在通胀问题时，你才会意识到自己存在通胀问题。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6\">wsj</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-hot-u-s-economy-drives-global-inflation-forcing-foreign-banks-to-act-11623933343?mod=hp_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138044913","content_text":"A booming U.S. economy that isdriving inflation higheraround the world and pushing up the U.S. dollar is pressing some central banks to increase interest rates, despite still-high levels of Covid-19 infections and incomplete economic recoveries in their own countries.\nThe world’s central banks are hanging on how the U.S. Federal Reserve will respond to a rise in inflation, wary of being caught in the crosscurrents of an extraordinary U.S. economic expansion. Globalstock markets fellon Thursday after Fed officials signaled they expect toraise interest rates by late 2023, sooner than they anticipated in March, as the U.S. economy heats up.\nA global march toward higher interest rates, with the Fed at the center, risks stifling the economic recovery in some places, especially at a time when emerging-market debt has risen.\nThe size of the U.S. economy, accounting for almost a quarter of world gross domestic product, and the importance of its financial markets have long exerted an outsize pull on global policy-making. But unusually brisk U.S. growth this year is critical to a world economy still recovering from last year’s shocks. Fed officials expect the U.S. economy to grow 7% this year, according to projections released Wednesday.\nCentral banks in Russia, Brazil and Turkey have raised interest rates in recent weeks, in part to tamp down inflation stemming from the surge in commodities prices this year. As factories around the world strain to satisfy U.S. demand, commodities’ prices ranging from tin to copper have soared.\n“With all the consequences of the pandemic, the last thing these countries need now is policy tightening,” said Tamara Basic Vasiljev, an economist with Oxford Economics in London.\nA U.S. economic boom supports economies around the world by boosting U.S. imports and remittances. But it also drives up borrowing costs and inflation and strengthens the dollar, which tightens global financial conditions and acts as a restraint on the recovery.\nThe pain is felt unevenly. A stronger dollarhurts emerging-market economiesthat have borrowed in dollars, while helping larger exporters in Europe and East Asia whose products become more competitive relative to U.S. exports.\nIn advanced economies, central bankers mostly believe that the period of rising inflation will prove temporary unless consumers come to expect it to continue and demand higher wages.\nWhile central banks don’t see that happening soon, some economists think they may be surprised.\n“I think there is a high chance that this temporary shock to prices could become more enduring,” said Luigi Speranza, chief global economist at BNP Paribas. Mr. Speranza noted that inflation in Germany is likely to be around 4% when the next round of pay bargaining starts toward the end of this year.\nCentral banks in Europe and Japanneed to match the Fed’s dovishnessor risk a spike in their currencies that could undermine economic recovery, economists said. The delicate dance around the Fed could come undone if inflation proves more persistent than expected, which would likely trigger a chain reaction of interest-rate increases.\n“To prevent the euro strengthening the [European Central Bank] would need to be similarly dovish as the Federal Reserve, which might be a struggle due to different inflation and growth dynamics,” said Elga Bartsch, head of macro research atBlackRock.\nEmerging-market economies often don’t have the luxury of waiting, however. Even a short burst of inflation can weigh heavily on their currencies and hurt companies’ and households’ ability to service debt that is often denominated in dollars or euros.\nThe Fed has signaled that it will take care to avoid a repeat of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” in which central banks in developing countries were forced to respond to a sudden withdrawal of foreign investment after the U.S. central bank surprised investors by saying it was considering a reduction in its stimulus programs.\n“So our intention for this process is that it will be orderly, methodical, and transparent,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday. “And I can just tell you, we see real value in communicating well in advance what our thinking is. And we’ll try to be clear.”\nBut with global inflation accelerating and the Fed starting to shift course, the calculus for some central banks is changing.\nBrazil’s central bank unveileda third consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increaseon Wednesday and signaled possible larger increases ahead, as it wrestles with inflation above 8%.\nThe Bank of Russia has raised its benchmark rate three times this year to 5.5%, after inflation accelerated to over 6% this month, its highest level in almost five years. On Tuesday, Gov. Elvira Nabiullina said that Russia will continue raising interest rates and doesn’t expect this to hinder economic growth.\n“We have kept rates low for quite some time to make sure we don’t clip the wings of a recovering economy,” Ms. Nabiullina said in a speech at Russia’s lower house of parliament. “Now is the time to raise rates in response to changed circumstances and rising inflation.”\nTurkey’s central bank sharply increased its main interest rate to 19% in March to counter double-digit inflation and a depreciating lira. But the Turkish lira has again come under pressure in recent weeksas investors try to assess whether the central bank will heed the demandsof President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to cut rates.\nRecent price increases on fresh produce have raised the so-called borscht set—the vegetables needed for Russia’s beloved soup—which is a bellwether indicator for many Russians. Since the start of the year, the price of potatoes, cabbage and carrots have risen by 60% to 80%.\nIn poor countries, a larger share of spending usually goes to essentials such as food and energy, so policy makers are quicker to tamp down on inflation when those prices rise.\nCentral banks in Scandinavia and South Korea have signaled plans to tighten monetary policy to restrain possible asset bubbles, particularly in property. Norway’s central bank signaled Thursday that it will increase interest rates in September.\nCentral banks in central Europe, and including Hungary and the Czech Republic, are also expected to lift rates soon. They didn’t suffer contractions on the same scale as larger European countries such as France and Spain during the pandemic, but are seeing inflation rise.\nIain Stealey, chief investment officer of fixed income at JP Morgan Asset Management, said the Fed will likely manage to avoid a repeat of the “taper tantrum.”\n“It is a very long, slow process…it’s very difficult not to do this given upside surprises in inflation,” Mr. Stealey said.\nStill, there are problems with the patient approach, economists said.\n“This idea of letting inflation run hot…means that you’re only going to realize you have an inflation problem when you already have an inflation problem,” said Klaus Baader, chief global economist at Société Générale.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2087,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163747926,"gmtCreate":1623894780665,"gmtModify":1631890620421,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","idStr":"3567160588479542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163747926","repostId":"2143379379","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163744243,"gmtCreate":1623894762882,"gmtModify":1631890620435,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","idStr":"3567160588479542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] ","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163744243","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":169785727,"gmtCreate":1623851116869,"gmtModify":1631890620450,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","idStr":"3567160588479542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[财迷] ","listText":"[财迷] ","text":"[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169785727","repostId":"1138545791","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138545791","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623850706,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138545791?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading<blockquote>通用汽车股价早盘飙升逾3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138545791","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading.\nGeneral Motors said on Wednesday it wil","content":"<p>General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车股价在早盘交易中飙升超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c4e8e4eca776efaebd98402c5b199b\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">General Motors said on Wednesday it will increase spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025, a 30% increase from plans announced late last year. It also said it is raising its earnings guidance for the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车周三表示，到2025年，将把电动和自动驾驶汽车的支出增加到350亿美元，比去年年底宣布的计划增加30%。该公司还表示，将上调今年上半年的盈利指引。</blockquote></p><p> The additional money will be used to expand its rollout of EVs and accelerate production of its battery and fuel cell technologies, including two new U.S. battery plants in addition to two that are currently under construction.</p><p><blockquote>额外的资金将用于扩大其电动汽车的推出并加速其电池和燃料电池技术的生产，除了目前正在建设的两家电池工厂之外，还包括两家新的美国电池工厂。</blockquote></p><p> America's largest automaker is racing to catch up to EV leaderTeslaand compete for a leadership position against other well-established automakers such asVolkswagen. GM plans to sell more than 1 million EVs annually by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的汽车制造商正在竞相追赶电动汽车领导者特斯拉，并与大众汽车等其他知名汽车制造商争夺领导地位。通用汽车计划到2025年每年销售超过100万辆电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are investing aggressively in a comprehensive and highly-integrated plan to make sure that GM leads in all aspects of the transformation to a more sustainable future,\" GM CEOMary Barrasaid in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉在一份声明中表示：“我们正在积极投资一项全面且高度整合的计划，以确保通用汽车在向更可持续未来转型的各个方面处于领先地位。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading<blockquote>通用汽车股价早盘飙升逾3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGeneral Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading<blockquote>通用汽车股价早盘飙升逾3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 21:38</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车股价在早盘交易中飙升超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62c4e8e4eca776efaebd98402c5b199b\" tg-width=\"801\" tg-height=\"594\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">General Motors said on Wednesday it will increase spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025, a 30% increase from plans announced late last year. It also said it is raising its earnings guidance for the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车周三表示，到2025年，将把电动和自动驾驶汽车的支出增加到350亿美元，比去年年底宣布的计划增加30%。该公司还表示，将上调今年上半年的盈利指引。</blockquote></p><p> The additional money will be used to expand its rollout of EVs and accelerate production of its battery and fuel cell technologies, including two new U.S. battery plants in addition to two that are currently under construction.</p><p><blockquote>额外的资金将用于扩大其电动汽车的推出并加速其电池和燃料电池技术的生产，除了目前正在建设的两家电池工厂之外，还包括两家新的美国电池工厂。</blockquote></p><p> America's largest automaker is racing to catch up to EV leaderTeslaand compete for a leadership position against other well-established automakers such asVolkswagen. GM plans to sell more than 1 million EVs annually by 2025.</p><p><blockquote>美国最大的汽车制造商正在竞相追赶电动汽车领导者特斯拉，并与大众汽车等其他知名汽车制造商争夺领导地位。通用汽车计划到2025年每年销售超过100万辆电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> \"We are investing aggressively in a comprehensive and highly-integrated plan to make sure that GM leads in all aspects of the transformation to a more sustainable future,\" GM CEOMary Barrasaid in a statement.</p><p><blockquote>通用汽车首席执行官玛丽·巴拉在一份声明中表示：“我们正在积极投资一项全面且高度整合的计划，以确保通用汽车在向更可持续未来转型的各个方面处于领先地位。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138545791","content_text":"General Motors shares surges more than 3% in moring trading.\nGeneral Motors said on Wednesday it will increase spending on electric and autonomous vehicles to $35 billion through 2025, a 30% increase from plans announced late last year. It also said it is raising its earnings guidance for the first half of the year.\nThe additional money will be used to expand its rollout of EVs and accelerate production of its battery and fuel cell technologies, including two new U.S. battery plants in addition to two that are currently under construction.\nAmerica's largest automaker is racing to catch up to EV leaderTeslaand compete for a leadership position against other well-established automakers such asVolkswagen. GM plans to sell more than 1 million EVs annually by 2025.\n\"We are investing aggressively in a comprehensive and highly-integrated plan to make sure that GM leads in all aspects of the transformation to a more sustainable future,\" GM CEOMary Barrasaid in a statement.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":169786892,"gmtCreate":1623851077016,"gmtModify":1631890620460,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","idStr":"3567160588479542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Be strong and improve please, otherwise Tesla will be slack. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>FSD","listText":"Be strong and improve please, otherwise Tesla will be slack. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>FSD","text":"Be strong and improve please, otherwise Tesla will be slack. $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$FSD","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169786892","repostId":"2143912677","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169792794,"gmtCreate":1623850393618,"gmtModify":1631890620472,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","idStr":"3567160588479542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[呆住] ","listText":"[呆住] ","text":"[呆住]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169792794","repostId":"1118154026","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118154026","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1623850220,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118154026?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118154026","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.\nTh","content":"<p>U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储更新货币政策之前，周三美国股市基本持平。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 20 points higher. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, sitting just a few points below an all-time high reached in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨20点。标普500小幅上涨0.1%，仅比前一交易日创下的历史高点低几个点。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Large tech shares like Tesla and Nvidia were slightly lower, while shares of economic reopening plays Royal Caribbean and Carnival gained 1% each.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和英伟达等大型科技股小幅走低，而经济重新开放公司皇家加勒比和嘉年华的股价分别上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks pulled back from record levels duringTuesday’s trading session, with the S&P 500 closing 0.2% lower after hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow slid nearly 100 points and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.7% amid weakness in shares of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>周二交易时段，股市从创纪录水平回落，标普500在当天早些时候触及盘中历史高点后收盘下跌0.2%。由于大型科技股疲软，道琼斯指数下跌近100点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think abouteasing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周二开始了为期两天的会议。预计央行不会采取任何政策举措，但这可能表明它开始考虑使用债券购买政策。美联储还将于周三发布新的预测，这可能表明可能在2023年首次加息。此前，美联储官员尚未就2023年之前的加息达成共识。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明和预测将于美国东部时间下午2点发布，30分钟后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting comes as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀正在升温，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> \"I still think equities are going higher,\" BlackRock global bond chief Rick Rieder said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Wednesday. \"If we don't hear anything different, then I worry a little bit about risk the system creates — you can create asset bubbles you can create leverage. We've seen markets that are a little bit concerning with literally zero spread to them for risk assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德全球债券主管Rick Rieder周三在CNBC的“Squawk Box”节目中表示：“我仍然认为股市会走高。如果我们没有听到任何不同的消息，那么我有点担心这个系统会产生风险——你可以制造资产泡沫，你可以制造杠杆。我们已经看到一些市场对风险资产的利差几乎为零感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Minutes from the central bank's last meeting showed that some Fed officials said it could be appropriate to start discussing adjustments to the bond-buying program should the economy continue to recover. Economists predict that while some of these discussions could begin, concrete details will not be revealed until later this year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上次会议纪要显示，一些美联储官员表示，如果经济继续复苏，开始讨论调整债券购买计划可能是合适的。经济学家预测，虽然其中一些讨论可能会开始，但具体细节要到今年晚些时候才会披露。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 is flat near a record with all eyes on Federal Reserve’s update<blockquote>标普500持平于创纪录水平，所有人都在关注美联储的最新消息</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-16 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储更新货币政策之前，周三美国股市基本持平。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 20 points higher. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, sitting just a few points below an all-time high reached in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨20点。标普500小幅上涨0.1%，仅比前一交易日创下的历史高点低几个点。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Large tech shares like Tesla and Nvidia were slightly lower, while shares of economic reopening plays Royal Caribbean and Carnival gained 1% each.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉和英伟达等大型科技股小幅走低，而经济重新开放公司皇家加勒比和嘉年华的股价分别上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks pulled back from record levels duringTuesday’s trading session, with the S&P 500 closing 0.2% lower after hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow slid nearly 100 points and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.7% amid weakness in shares of Big Tech.</p><p><blockquote>周二交易时段，股市从创纪录水平回落，标普500在当天早些时候触及盘中历史高点后收盘下跌0.2%。由于大型科技股疲软，道琼斯指数下跌近100点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think abouteasing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储周二开始了为期两天的会议。预计央行不会采取任何政策举措，但这可能表明它开始考虑使用债券购买政策。美联储还将于周三发布新的预测，这可能表明可能在2023年首次加息。此前，美联储官员尚未就2023年之前的加息达成共识。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明和预测将于美国东部时间下午2点发布，30分钟后主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p> The meeting comes as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.</p><p><blockquote>周二的一份报告显示，此次会议召开之际，通胀正在升温，5月份生产者价格以近11年来最快的年增长率上涨。这促使包括保罗·都铎·琼斯在内的一些人呼吁央行重新考虑其宽松的货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> \"I still think equities are going higher,\" BlackRock global bond chief Rick Rieder said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Wednesday. \"If we don't hear anything different, then I worry a little bit about risk the system creates — you can create asset bubbles you can create leverage. We've seen markets that are a little bit concerning with literally zero spread to them for risk assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德全球债券主管Rick Rieder周三在CNBC的“Squawk Box”节目中表示：“我仍然认为股市会走高。如果我们没有听到任何不同的消息，那么我有点担心这个系统会产生风险——你可以制造资产泡沫，你可以制造杠杆。我们已经看到一些市场对风险资产的利差几乎为零感到担忧。”</blockquote></p><p> The central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济继续从冠状病毒大流行中复苏，央行每月购买价值1200亿美元的债券。</blockquote></p><p> \"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>联邦金融网络首席信息官布拉德·麦克米兰表示：“本周的戏剧性事件将是美联储是按兵不动，还是承认通胀正在上升，美联储需要收紧政策。”“由于美联储有双重使命——失业和通胀——这表明它确实应该将重点放在失业上，而不是通胀上。”</blockquote></p><p> Minutes from the central bank's last meeting showed that some Fed officials said it could be appropriate to start discussing adjustments to the bond-buying program should the economy continue to recover. Economists predict that while some of these discussions could begin, concrete details will not be revealed until later this year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储上次会议纪要显示，一些美联储官员表示，如果经济继续复苏，开始讨论调整债券购买计划可能是合适的。经济学家预测，虽然其中一些讨论可能会开始，但具体细节要到今年晚些时候才会披露。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>周三，中国表示将从国家储备中释放铜、铝和锌等工业金属，以抑制大宗商品价格。铜价较历史高点下跌逾10%，周二跌入回调区间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118154026","content_text":"U.S. stocks were mostly flat on Wednesday ahead of theFederal Reserve’s updateon monetary policy.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 20 points higher. The S&P 500 inched up 0.1%, sitting just a few points below an all-time high reached in the previous session. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.2%.\nLarge tech shares like Tesla and Nvidia were slightly lower, while shares of economic reopening plays Royal Caribbean and Carnival gained 1% each.\nStocks pulled back from record levels duringTuesday’s trading session, with the S&P 500 closing 0.2% lower after hitting an all-time intraday high earlier in the day. The Dow slid nearly 100 points and the Nasdaq Composite dipped 0.7% amid weakness in shares of Big Tech.\nThe Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is not expected to make any policy moves, but it could signal that it’s beginning to think abouteasing its bond-buying policy. The Fed will also release new forecasts on Wednesday, which could indicate a possible first rate hike penciled in for 2023. Previously, Fed officials hadn’t come to a consensus for a rate hike through 2023.\nThe Fed’s statement and forecasts will come out at 2 p.m. ET followed by a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell 30 minutes later.\nThe meeting comes as inflation heats up, with producer prices rising at their fastest annual rate in nearly 11 years duringMay, a report on Tuesday showed. This has prompted some, including Paul Tudor Jones, to call for the central bank to re-think its easy monetary policy.\n\"I still think equities are going higher,\" BlackRock global bond chief Rick Rieder said on CNBC's \"Squawk Box\" on Wednesday. \"If we don't hear anything different, then I worry a little bit about risk the system creates — you can create asset bubbles you can create leverage. We've seen markets that are a little bit concerning with literally zero spread to them for risk assets.\"\nThe central bank has been buying $120 billion worth of bonds each month as the economy continues to recover from the coronavirus pandemic.\n\"The drama this week will be whether the Fed sits tight or admits that inflation is rising and that the Fed needs to tighten,\" said Brad McMillan, CIO at Commonwealth Financial Network. \"Since the Fed has a dual mandate—unemployment and inflation—that suggests it should indeed keep its focus on unemployment, rather than inflation.\"\nMinutes from the central bank's last meeting showed that some Fed officials said it could be appropriate to start discussing adjustments to the bond-buying program should the economy continue to recover. Economists predict that while some of these discussions could begin, concrete details will not be revealed until later this year.\nOn Wednesday,China said it will release industrial metalsincluding copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves to curb commodity prices. Copper price has fallen more than 10% from its record high, dipping into correction territory on Tuesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":169474490,"gmtCreate":1623849667210,"gmtModify":1631883987025,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","idStr":"3567160588479542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SPACs without fundamental will be crash into ground one day","listText":"SPACs without fundamental will be crash into ground one day","text":"SPACs without fundamental will be crash into ground one day","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169474490","repostId":"1180909583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180909583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623812789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180909583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPACs could stage a summer comeback<blockquote>SPAC可能会在夏季卷土重来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180909583","media":"CNN Business","summary":"London (CNN Business) - Special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, were one of the stock marke","content":"<p><b>London (CNN Business) - </b>Special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, were one of the stock market's hottest trends in early 2021, drawing in billionaires, celebrities and athletes.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN商业）——</b>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是2021年初股市最热门的趋势之一，吸引了亿万富翁、名人和运动员。</blockquote></p><p> Then, in early spring, enthusiasm began to wane, as \"blank check\" firms — which raise money from investors and then go hunting for takeover targets — started to receive greater scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>然后，在早春，热情开始消退，因为“空白支票”公司——从投资者那里筹集资金，然后寻找收购目标——开始受到华盛顿立法者和监管机构的更严格审查。</blockquote></p><p> \"I have deep concerns about the lack of transparency and accountability that is a hallmark of the SPAC process,\" Rep. Maxine Waters, the chair of the House Financial Services Committee, said at a hearing last month.</p><p><blockquote>众议院金融服务委员会主席、众议员玛克辛·沃特斯(Maxine Waters)在上个月的听证会上表示：“我对SPAC流程缺乏透明度和问责制深感担忧，这是SPAC流程的标志。”</blockquote></p><p> But SPACs could be coming back into vogue. Nine new SPACs raised $1.4 billion last week, according to Bill Smith of Renaissance Capital, making it the busiest week since March.</p><p><blockquote>但SPAC可能会重新流行起来。据Renaissance Capital的Bill Smith称，上周有9家新的SPAC筹集了14亿美元，这是自3月份以来最繁忙的一周。</blockquote></p><p> More data: It's clear there's been a marked slowdown. So far this quarter, just 50 new SPACs have listed globally, raising $10.9 billion, according to Dealogic data provided to CNN Business. That's compared to 304 listings that raised $98.4 billion between January and March.</p><p><blockquote>更多数据：很明显，经济增速明显放缓。根据Dealogic向CNN Business提供的数据，本季度迄今为止，全球仅有50家新SPAC上市，筹集了109亿美元。相比之下，1月至3月期间有304家上市公司筹集了984亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Activity could pick back up, however, as investors continue to hunt for creative places to park their money. According to a Bank of America survey published Tuesday, 18% of global fund managers say they are taking higher-than-normal risks, up 4 percentage points compared to the previous month.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着投资者继续寻找有创意的地方来存放资金，活动可能会回升。美国银行周二公布的一项调查显示，18%的全球基金经理表示，他们承担的风险高于正常水平，较上月上升4个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Watch this space: While there is still skepticism among some startups that merging with a SPAC is the best way to go public, there are firms willing to take this route instead of pursuing a traditional initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>关注这个领域：虽然一些初创公司仍然怀疑与SPAC合并是上市的最佳方式，但也有公司愿意走这条路，而不是追求传统的首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, online grocery shop Boxed announced it was going public in an $887 million deal with a SPAC called Seven Oaks Acquisition Corp.</p><p><blockquote>周一，在线杂货店Boxed宣布将与一家名为Seven Oaks Acquisition Corp.的SPAC进行8.87亿美元的交易。</blockquote></p><p> And last week, Vertical Aerospace, a UK electric aircraft manufacturer, said it wouldgo publicby merging with the New York SPAC Broadstone Acquisition Corp., while the banking app Dave said it would merge with a SPAC sponsored by the investment firm Victory Park Capital.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英国电动飞机制造商Vertical Aerospace表示将与纽约SPAC Broadstone Acquisition Corp.合并上市，而银行应用程序Dave表示将与投资公司Victory Park Capital赞助的SPAC合并。</blockquote></p><p> Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman's SPAC is also said to be nearing a complex deal with Universal Music Group that would value the business at $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>据称，对冲基金亿万富翁比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)的SPAC也即将与环球音乐集团(Universal Music Group)达成一项复杂的交易，该交易的估值将达到400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The success of these arrangements may dictate whether other SPACs searching for companies to take public can do so with ease.So far this quarter, there have been 63 SPAC merger announcements globally, with deal value topping $140.6 billion, according to Dealogic. That's down from 100 SPAC deals worth $227 billion in the first three months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这些安排的成功可能决定其他寻找公司上市的SPAC是否能够轻松做到这一点。Dealogic的数据显示，本季度迄今为止，全球已有63起SPAC合并公告，交易价值超过1406亿美元。这低于今年前三个月价值2270亿美元的100笔SPAC交易。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPACs could stage a summer comeback<blockquote>SPAC可能会在夏季卷土重来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPACs could stage a summer comeback<blockquote>SPAC可能会在夏季卷土重来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>London (CNN Business) - </b>Special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, were one of the stock market's hottest trends in early 2021, drawing in billionaires, celebrities and athletes.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN商业）——</b>特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是2021年初股市最热门的趋势之一，吸引了亿万富翁、名人和运动员。</blockquote></p><p> Then, in early spring, enthusiasm began to wane, as \"blank check\" firms — which raise money from investors and then go hunting for takeover targets — started to receive greater scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators in Washington.</p><p><blockquote>然后，在早春，热情开始消退，因为“空白支票”公司——从投资者那里筹集资金，然后寻找收购目标——开始受到华盛顿立法者和监管机构的更严格审查。</blockquote></p><p> \"I have deep concerns about the lack of transparency and accountability that is a hallmark of the SPAC process,\" Rep. Maxine Waters, the chair of the House Financial Services Committee, said at a hearing last month.</p><p><blockquote>众议院金融服务委员会主席、众议员玛克辛·沃特斯(Maxine Waters)在上个月的听证会上表示：“我对SPAC流程缺乏透明度和问责制深感担忧，这是SPAC流程的标志。”</blockquote></p><p> But SPACs could be coming back into vogue. Nine new SPACs raised $1.4 billion last week, according to Bill Smith of Renaissance Capital, making it the busiest week since March.</p><p><blockquote>但SPAC可能会重新流行起来。据Renaissance Capital的Bill Smith称，上周有9家新的SPAC筹集了14亿美元，这是自3月份以来最繁忙的一周。</blockquote></p><p> More data: It's clear there's been a marked slowdown. So far this quarter, just 50 new SPACs have listed globally, raising $10.9 billion, according to Dealogic data provided to CNN Business. That's compared to 304 listings that raised $98.4 billion between January and March.</p><p><blockquote>更多数据：很明显，经济增速明显放缓。根据Dealogic向CNN Business提供的数据，本季度迄今为止，全球仅有50家新SPAC上市，筹集了109亿美元。相比之下，1月至3月期间有304家上市公司筹集了984亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Activity could pick back up, however, as investors continue to hunt for creative places to park their money. According to a Bank of America survey published Tuesday, 18% of global fund managers say they are taking higher-than-normal risks, up 4 percentage points compared to the previous month.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着投资者继续寻找有创意的地方来存放资金，活动可能会回升。美国银行周二公布的一项调查显示，18%的全球基金经理表示，他们承担的风险高于正常水平，较上月上升4个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Watch this space: While there is still skepticism among some startups that merging with a SPAC is the best way to go public, there are firms willing to take this route instead of pursuing a traditional initial public offering.</p><p><blockquote>关注这个领域：虽然一些初创公司仍然怀疑与SPAC合并是上市的最佳方式，但也有公司愿意走这条路，而不是追求传统的首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, online grocery shop Boxed announced it was going public in an $887 million deal with a SPAC called Seven Oaks Acquisition Corp.</p><p><blockquote>周一，在线杂货店Boxed宣布将与一家名为Seven Oaks Acquisition Corp.的SPAC进行8.87亿美元的交易。</blockquote></p><p> And last week, Vertical Aerospace, a UK electric aircraft manufacturer, said it wouldgo publicby merging with the New York SPAC Broadstone Acquisition Corp., while the banking app Dave said it would merge with a SPAC sponsored by the investment firm Victory Park Capital.</p><p><blockquote>上周，英国电动飞机制造商Vertical Aerospace表示将与纽约SPAC Broadstone Acquisition Corp.合并上市，而银行应用程序Dave表示将与投资公司Victory Park Capital赞助的SPAC合并。</blockquote></p><p> Hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman's SPAC is also said to be nearing a complex deal with Universal Music Group that would value the business at $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>据称，对冲基金亿万富翁比尔·阿克曼(Bill Ackman)的SPAC也即将与环球音乐集团(Universal Music Group)达成一项复杂的交易，该交易的估值将达到400亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The success of these arrangements may dictate whether other SPACs searching for companies to take public can do so with ease.So far this quarter, there have been 63 SPAC merger announcements globally, with deal value topping $140.6 billion, according to Dealogic. That's down from 100 SPAC deals worth $227 billion in the first three months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>这些安排的成功可能决定其他寻找公司上市的SPAC是否能够轻松做到这一点。Dealogic的数据显示，本季度迄今为止，全球已有63起SPAC合并公告，交易价值超过1406亿美元。这低于今年前三个月价值2270亿美元的100笔SPAC交易。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180909583","content_text":"London (CNN Business) - Special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, were one of the stock market's hottest trends in early 2021, drawing in billionaires, celebrities and athletes.\nThen, in early spring, enthusiasm began to wane, as \"blank check\" firms — which raise money from investors and then go hunting for takeover targets — started to receive greater scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators in Washington.\n\"I have deep concerns about the lack of transparency and accountability that is a hallmark of the SPAC process,\" Rep. Maxine Waters, the chair of the House Financial Services Committee, said at a hearing last month.\nBut SPACs could be coming back into vogue. Nine new SPACs raised $1.4 billion last week, according to Bill Smith of Renaissance Capital, making it the busiest week since March.\nMore data: It's clear there's been a marked slowdown. So far this quarter, just 50 new SPACs have listed globally, raising $10.9 billion, according to Dealogic data provided to CNN Business. That's compared to 304 listings that raised $98.4 billion between January and March.\nActivity could pick back up, however, as investors continue to hunt for creative places to park their money. According to a Bank of America survey published Tuesday, 18% of global fund managers say they are taking higher-than-normal risks, up 4 percentage points compared to the previous month.\nWatch this space: While there is still skepticism among some startups that merging with a SPAC is the best way to go public, there are firms willing to take this route instead of pursuing a traditional initial public offering.\nOn Monday, online grocery shop Boxed announced it was going public in an $887 million deal with a SPAC called Seven Oaks Acquisition Corp.\nAnd last week, Vertical Aerospace, a UK electric aircraft manufacturer, said it wouldgo publicby merging with the New York SPAC Broadstone Acquisition Corp., while the banking app Dave said it would merge with a SPAC sponsored by the investment firm Victory Park Capital.\nHedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman's SPAC is also said to be nearing a complex deal with Universal Music Group that would value the business at $40 billion.\nThe success of these arrangements may dictate whether other SPACs searching for companies to take public can do so with ease.So far this quarter, there have been 63 SPAC merger announcements globally, with deal value topping $140.6 billion, according to Dealogic. That's down from 100 SPAC deals worth $227 billion in the first three months of the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169475346,"gmtCreate":1623849602485,"gmtModify":1631890620484,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","idStr":"3567160588479542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dividends stock could be a death end too","listText":"Dividends stock could be a death end too","text":"Dividends stock could be a death end too","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169475346","repostId":"2143975182","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169478747,"gmtCreate":1623849536089,"gmtModify":1631890620493,"author":{"id":"3567160588479542","authorId":"3567160588479542","name":"JR93","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09000967c3d6b1e608bc9e2703f4bdb1","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3567160588479542","idStr":"3567160588479542"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"US market always the great investment","listText":"US market always the great investment","text":"US market always the great investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169478747","repostId":"1114934376","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114934376","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623823279,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114934376?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 14:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在2021年底走高的可能性很大，125年的历史支持了这一点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114934376","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks\nGETTY IMAGES\nOdds are good that the U.S. ","content":"<p>Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks</p><p><blockquote>美股下半年往往走强</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa48171959ef33c4e5ded6b6a1dac2df\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Odds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.</p><p><blockquote>12月底美国股市走高的可能性很大。不要太兴奋；这些赔率与美国经济目前的强劲程度或股市今年迄今为止令人印象深刻的回报无关。事实上，即使股市处于熊市或经济衰退，2021年下半年获胜的机会也是一样的。</blockquote></p><p> The reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.</p><p><blockquote>其原因与股票市场的效率有关。它在任何给定点的水平反映了截至该点的所有可用信息。例如，如果6月30日股市在六个月内走高的可能性比平时更大，交易者就会抬高价格以考虑到这些更大的可能性。他们不会等到今年晚些时候才加大赌注。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场走高的可能性比平时更差，情况也是如此。如果处于年中关口的交易者知道六个月后市场很可能会走低，他们会立即抛售，而不是等待。</blockquote></p><p> The net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.</p><p><blockquote>他们在这两种情况下的行动的最终结果是，市场在今年下半年上涨的几率大致相同。根据19世纪90年代末创立的道琼斯工业平均指数，这一可能性为66.9%（约三分之二）。</blockquote></p><p> Notice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，从下图中可以看出，无论道琼斯指数在年中发生了什么变化，这些赔率基本相同。在道琼斯指数前六个月上涨的历年中，下半年有72.4%的时间上涨。从66.9%到72.4%的增长在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平上并不显著。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727712f5fc7e02a4333de6df26576024\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Or take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.</p><p><blockquote>或者以总统四年任期的头几年为例，也就是我们现在所处的这一年。在那些年的下半年，股市上涨了64.5%。这与适用于所有年份的几率在统计上没有显著差异。</blockquote></p><p> You may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会失望，强劲的上半场并没有增加强劲下半场的几率。然而，一年前，当相同的统计分析表明股市有三分之二的可能性在2020年底走高时，没有人抱怨。果然如此：继去年上半年下跌9.6%后，道琼斯指数下半年上涨18.6%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.</p><p><blockquote>正是由于市场的效率，从长远来看，买入并持有策略很难被击败。当你偏离这种买入并持有的方法时，你实际上是在打赌你比数百万其他股市投资者的集体智慧知道得更多，拥有更强的洞察力。你这样做并非不可能，但是——正如历史多次表明的那样——这是一个低概率的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Odds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在2021年底走高的可能性很大，125年的历史支持了这一点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOdds favor the Dow being higher at the end of 2021 and 125 years of history supports this<blockquote>道琼斯指数在2021年底走高的可能性很大，125年的历史支持了这一点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 14:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks</p><p><blockquote>美股下半年往往走强</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa48171959ef33c4e5ded6b6a1dac2df\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>盖蒂图片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Odds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.</p><p><blockquote>12月底美国股市走高的可能性很大。不要太兴奋；这些赔率与美国经济目前的强劲程度或股市今年迄今为止令人印象深刻的回报无关。事实上，即使股市处于熊市或经济衰退，2021年下半年获胜的机会也是一样的。</blockquote></p><p> The reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.</p><p><blockquote>其原因与股票市场的效率有关。它在任何给定点的水平反映了截至该点的所有可用信息。例如，如果6月30日股市在六个月内走高的可能性比平时更大，交易者就会抬高价格以考虑到这些更大的可能性。他们不会等到今年晚些时候才加大赌注。</blockquote></p><p> That’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场走高的可能性比平时更差，情况也是如此。如果处于年中关口的交易者知道六个月后市场很可能会走低，他们会立即抛售，而不是等待。</blockquote></p><p> The net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.</p><p><blockquote>他们在这两种情况下的行动的最终结果是，市场在今年下半年上涨的几率大致相同。根据19世纪90年代末创立的道琼斯工业平均指数，这一可能性为66.9%（约三分之二）。</blockquote></p><p> Notice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，从下图中可以看出，无论道琼斯指数在年中发生了什么变化，这些赔率基本相同。在道琼斯指数前六个月上涨的历年中，下半年有72.4%的时间上涨。从66.9%到72.4%的增长在统计学家在确定模式是否真实时经常使用的95%置信水平上并不显著。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/727712f5fc7e02a4333de6df26576024\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"849\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Or take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.</p><p><blockquote>或者以总统四年任期的头几年为例，也就是我们现在所处的这一年。在那些年的下半年，股市上涨了64.5%。这与适用于所有年份的几率在统计上没有显著差异。</blockquote></p><p> You may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.</p><p><blockquote>你可能会失望，强劲的上半场并没有增加强劲下半场的几率。然而，一年前，当相同的统计分析表明股市有三分之二的可能性在2020年底走高时，没有人抱怨。果然如此：继去年上半年下跌9.6%后，道琼斯指数下半年上涨18.6%。</blockquote></p><p> It’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.</p><p><blockquote>正是由于市场的效率，从长远来看，买入并持有策略很难被击败。当你偏离这种买入并持有的方法时，你实际上是在打赌你比数百万其他股市投资者的集体智慧知道得更多，拥有更强的洞察力。你这样做并非不可能，但是——正如历史多次表明的那样——这是一个低概率的赌注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-odds-of-the-dow-being-higher-at-the-end-of-2021-are-about-two-in-three-11623737505?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-odds-of-the-dow-being-higher-at-the-end-of-2021-are-about-two-in-three-11623737505?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114934376","content_text":"Second half of the year tends to be strong for U.S. stocks\nGETTY IMAGES\nOdds are good that the U.S. stock market will be higher at the end of December. Don’t get too excited; these odds have nothing to do with how strong the U.S. economy is right now or the stock market’s impressive returns so far this year. In fact, the chance of a winning second half of 2021 would be the same even if stocks were in a bear market or the economy was in recession.\nThe reason why has to do with the stock market’s efficiency. Its level at any given point reflects all available information up to that point. For example, if on June 30 the odds were better-than-usual that stocks would be higher in six months’ time, traders would have already bid up prices to take those better odds into account. They wouldn’t wait until later in the year to up their bets.\nThat’s also true if the odds of a higher market were worse than usual. If traders at the midyear mark knew that the market would most likely be lower in six months’ time, they would sell immediately rather than wait.\nThe net result of their actions in both cases would that the market’s odds of rising in the second half of the year are more or less the same. Those odds are 66.9% — about two out of three — based on the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to its creation in the late 1890s.\nNotice from the chart below that these odds are largely the same regardless of what has happened with the Dow through mid-year. In those calendar years in which the Dow rose over the first six months, it in the second half rose 72.4% of the time. The increase from 66.9% to 72.4% is not significant at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine.\n\nOr take the first years of the presidential four-year term, which is the year we’re in now. Over the second halves of those years, the stock market has risen 64.5% of the time. That is not statistically significantly different than the odds that apply to all years.\nYou may be disappointed that a strong first half doesn’t increase the odds of a strong second half. Yet no one complained a year ago when the identical statistical analysis suggested that there was a two-out-of-three chance the stock market would be higher at the end of 2020. Sure enough, it was: Following a 9.6% decline for the first half of last year, the Dow rose 18.6% in the second.\nIt’s because of the market’s efficiency that a buy-and-hold strategy is so hard to beat over the long term. When you deviate from that buy-and-hold approach, you’re in effect betting that you know more and have greater insight than the collective wisdom of millions of other stock market investors. It’s not out of the question that you do, but — as history has shown numerous times — it’s a low probability bet.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1260,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}