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没有人比我更懂韭菜
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-31
早呢，今年比22年只会多不会少
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-28
是技术性调整？[开心] [开心] [开心]
高盛：现阶段不宜做空美股，抛售压力已近尾声，利好消息或触发“逼空”
这一轮系统性抛售“已接近尾声”。
高盛：现阶段不宜做空美股，抛售压力已近尾声，利好消息或触发“逼空”
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-26
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
大概率被比亚迪带下来 财报跳票了
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-24
[龇牙]其实也没跌多少啊10%不到
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-17
我信你个鬼 糟老头子坏得很 [黑眼圈]
白宫经济顾问哈塞特：油轮开始通过霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗冲突将在短期内结束
不会拖上几个月。
白宫经济顾问哈塞特：油轮开始通过霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗冲突将在短期内结束
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-09
$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$
短期内劳合社和ig根本不给你开p&i 就算战争风险结束金融风险依然还在 油价根本下不来
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-09
[开心] 但是保险不会立刻回复 油价几个月内都下不来
特朗普称将在“适当时机”作出结束对伊朗军事行动决定
3月9日，央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普8日对以色列媒体说，将在“适当时机”作出结束对伊朗军事行动的最终决定。
特朗普称将在“适当时机”作出结束对伊朗军事行动决定
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-07
[开心] 这次可能不会加息了 但是会超级qt噢
油价美元涨、股价下跌！市场开始“施压”特朗普
美伊冲突引爆金融市场连锁反应——油价单周暴涨逾10%、美债收益率跳升20基点、美元全线走强，三重压力同步重创特朗普苦心维护的三大经济晴雨表。降息预期降温、强势美元反噬出口、债务利息压力骤升，昔日政策红利正在加速瓦解，2022年俄乌冲突式的通胀噩梦阴影隐现。
油价美元涨、股价下跌！市场开始“施压”特朗普
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-04
不可能长期封锁 伊朗没有那么多子弹和外汇储备…只不过我依然不看好…美债收益率下不来这是最核心的[无语]
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没有人比我更懂韭菜
没有人比我更懂韭菜
·
03-04
[傲娇]时间节点不对而已 流动性危机黄金都是跌的 等杠杠资金出的差不多才会开始涨
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[开心] [开心] ","listText":"是技术性调整？[开心] [开心] [开心] ","text":"是技术性调整？[开心] [开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/547425134338312","repostId":"2622809814","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2622809814","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774652400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2622809814?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-28 07:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛：现阶段不宜做空美股，抛售压力已近尾声，利好消息或触发“逼空”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622809814","media":"智通财经","summary":"这一轮系统性抛售“已接近尾声”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在地缘政治风险加剧、市场波动明显上升之际，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易部门发出警示，建议投资者不要贸然转向看空美股，当前市场结构反而更容易在利好消息出现时触发“逼空行情”。</p><p>从市场表现来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数正迈向自2022年以来最差单月表现，而纳指已进入技术性回调区间。尽管高盛并未看到短期内明确的上涨路径，其交易团队认为，当前抛售压力已接近尾声，在此背景下继续加码空头仓位风险较大。高盛策略团队在报告中指出，市场需要保持对冲和灵活操作，但“鉴于当前持仓结构对逼空风险较为敏感，不建议转向做空”。</p><p>数据显示，趋势跟踪资金(CTA)本月已累计抛售约550亿美元美股，目前净空头规模达184亿美元。高盛认为，除非出现新的宏观冲击，这一轮系统性抛售“已接近尾声”，而市场风险收益结构正逐步向上倾斜。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79caf824e4a2025ae1fa1b4fbbdbe798\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p>与此同时，风险平价与波动控制策略也在持续降低股票敞口，其中风险平价策略已在全球范围内减持超过200亿美元，约占其总多头仓位的六分之一。</p><p>不过，从资金面来看，市场并未出现明显“撤退”。股票型基金资金流入依然稳健，家庭投资者几乎未显著降低持股比例，基本面投资者整体仓位仍接近历史高位。这意味着，一旦出现地缘局势缓和等利好消息，市场可能出现放大式反弹。</p><p>在地缘政治方面，美国与以色列近期对伊朗多个核设施及钢铁目标实施打击，而伊朗则持续在波斯湾地区发动反击，并拒绝美国总统特朗普提出的停火要求，令市场不确定性进一步上升。</p><p>此外，高盛预计，月末养老金资金将为美股带来约140亿美元的净流入，对市场形成一定支撑。此外，散户投资者仅较高点小幅降低约1%的股票配置，显示出对美股的长期信心仍在。</p><p>高盛指出，尽管短期不确定性仍存，随着月末资金流动因素逐步释放，市场进入4月后或迎来更清晰的运行路径。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛：现阶段不宜做空美股，抛售压力已近尾声，利好消息或触发“逼空”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1421272.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在地缘政治风险加剧、市场波动明显上升之际，高盛交易部门发出警示，建议投资者不要贸然转向看空美股，当前市场结构反而更容易在利好消息出现时触发“逼空行情”。从市场表现来看，标普500指数正迈向自2022年以来最差单月表现，而纳指已进入技术性回调区间。尽管高盛并未看到短期内明确的上涨路径，其交易团队认为，当前抛售压力已接近尾声，在此背景下继续加码空头仓位风险较大。高盛策略团队在报告中指出，市场需要保持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1421272.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a641ba689741f1e38c3545add5626d8e","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 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19:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"白宫经济顾问哈塞特：油轮开始通过霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗冲突将在短期内结束","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1160002539","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"不会拖上几个月。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>白宫经济顾问哈塞特：<strong>油轮开始通过霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗冲突将在短期内结束。这事几周内就能结束，不会拖上几个月。</strong>在把这件事（对伊朗的行动）完成之前，美国总统特朗普绝不会退缩。</p><p>哈塞特：期货显示油价将在今年晚些时候回到50多美元/桶。如有必要可以进一步释放石油储备。</p><p>哈塞特：我们已经为每个季度的混乱局面制定了计划。计划包括化肥和向西海岸运送燃料。眼下几乎到了播种季节，因此化肥至关重要。我们一直在寻找化肥的其他来源。曾与委内瑞拉、摩洛哥就化肥问题开展合作。成功找到其他肥料来源。我们的重点是帮助美国农民获得化肥。</p><p>哈塞特：美国经济依然“基本面强劲”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>白宫经济顾问哈塞特：油轮开始通过霍尔木兹海峡，伊朗冲突将在短期内结束</title>\n<style 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19:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>白宫经济顾问哈塞特：<strong>油轮开始通过霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗冲突将在短期内结束。这事几周内就能结束，不会拖上几个月。</strong>在把这件事（对伊朗的行动）完成之前，美国总统特朗普绝不会退缩。</p><p>哈塞特：期货显示油价将在今年晚些时候回到50多美元/桶。如有必要可以进一步释放石油储备。</p><p>哈塞特：我们已经为每个季度的混乱局面制定了计划。计划包括化肥和向西海岸运送燃料。眼下几乎到了播种季节，因此化肥至关重要。我们一直在寻找化肥的其他来源。曾与委内瑞拉、摩洛哥就化肥问题开展合作。成功找到其他肥料来源。我们的重点是帮助美国农民获得化肥。</p><p>哈塞特：美国经济依然“基本面强劲”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fec5acb98dc4d78fbd636373bf28956e","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1160002539","content_text":"白宫经济顾问哈塞特：油轮开始通过霍尔木兹海峡。伊朗冲突将在短期内结束。这事几周内就能结束，不会拖上几个月。在把这件事（对伊朗的行动）完成之前，美国总统特朗普绝不会退缩。哈塞特：期货显示油价将在今年晚些时候回到50多美元/桶。如有必要可以进一步释放石油储备。哈塞特：我们已经为每个季度的混乱局面制定了计划。计划包括化肥和向西海岸运送燃料。眼下几乎到了播种季节，因此化肥至关重要。我们一直在寻找化肥的其他来源。曾与委内瑞拉、摩洛哥就化肥问题开展合作。成功找到其他肥料来源。我们的重点是帮助美国农民获得化肥。哈塞特：美国经济依然“基本面强劲”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":2,"ESmain":2,"NQmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":540725764379248,"gmtCreate":1773031184621,"gmtModify":1773031186989,"author":{"id":"3568099945700012","authorId":"3568099945700012","name":"没有人比我更懂韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15391474b6bf8712ad5c17ea6bad5690","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568099945700012","authorIdStr":"3568099945700012"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特朗普称将在“适当时机”作出结束对伊朗军事行动决定</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普称将在“适当时机”作出结束对伊朗军事行动决定\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-09 09:51</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月9日，央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普8日对以色列媒体说，将在“适当时机”作出结束对伊朗军事行动的最终决定。</p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab1b9e3f5fc34a9d2d84e9a9fac6d47c","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109784983","content_text":"3月9日，央视新闻报道，美国总统特朗普8日对以色列媒体说，将在“适当时机”作出结束对伊朗军事行动的最终决定。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539906942992984,"gmtCreate":1772831276818,"gmtModify":1772831279346,"author":{"id":"3568099945700012","authorId":"3568099945700012","name":"没有人比我更懂韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15391474b6bf8712ad5c17ea6bad5690","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568099945700012","authorIdStr":"3568099945700012"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[开心] 这次可能不会加息了 但是会超级qt噢 ","listText":"[开心] 这次可能不会加息了 但是会超级qt噢 ","text":"[开心] 这次可能不会加息了 但是会超级qt噢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539906942992984","repostId":"2617065435","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2617065435","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1772766644,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2617065435?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-06 11:10","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"油价美元涨、股价下跌！市场开始“施压”特朗普","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2617065435","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美伊冲突引爆金融市场连锁反应——油价单周暴涨逾10%、美债收益率跳升20基点、美元全线走强，三重压力同步重创特朗普苦心维护的三大经济晴雨表。降息预期降温、强势美元反噬出口、债务利息压力骤升，昔日政策红利正在加速瓦解，2022年俄乌冲突式的通胀噩梦阴影隐现。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美伊冲突引爆金融市场连锁反应——油价单周暴涨逾10%、美债收益率跳升20基点、美元全线走强，三重压力同步重创特朗普苦心维护的三大经济晴雨表。降息预期降温、强势美元反噬出口、债务利息压力骤升，昔日政策红利正在加速瓦解，2022年俄乌冲突式的通胀噩梦阴影隐现。</p></blockquote><p>美伊冲突正在瓦解特朗普在金融市场上苦心经营的政策成果。油价飙升、美债收益率跳涨、美元强势回归，三重压力叠加，令通胀预期升温、降息路径受阻，直接威胁到特朗普最看重的几项经济"晴雨表"。</p><p>美国与以色列对伊朗发动空袭后，国际油价本周累计涨幅超过10%，通胀担忧随之重燃。交易员已开始下调对美联储今年降息幅度的预期——此前市场一度押注年内降息三次，如今连两次都难以确定。与此同时，彭博美元即期指数本周上涨逾1%，10年期美债收益率攀升约20个基点。</p><p>股市方面，美股本周整体尚能维稳，但局势仍在演变。周四，随着冲突进入第六天，油价、收益率和美元再度走高，股市随之下跌。</p><p>Schroder Investment投资组合经理Mina Krishnan警告称，</p><blockquote><p>这些意外后果对特朗普能够实现的目标构成制动，在中期选举年尤为如此。他所关注的晴雨表是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数、汽油价格和抵押贷款利率。他将自己的成功归因于这些指标，这意味着他现在也要为任何失败承担责任。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2427076658\">三大市场目标同步受损</h2><p>在与伊朗冲突爆发之前，特朗普正在收获——无论是有意为之还是机缘巧合——他在三个关键金融市场上所期望的结果：油价下行、美债收益率走低、美元走弱。</p><p>今年1月，特朗普曾公开表示对美元近期贬值感到满意，强化了市场对白宫希望弱势美元以提振出口的预期。美元随即应声下跌，直至财政部长贝森特重申强势美元政策后才有所回稳。</p><p><strong>然而此番冲突爆发，美元迅速重拾避险货币地位，几乎对所有主要货币全线走强。若</strong>这一趋势持续，将削弱美国出口竞争力，与特朗普振兴制造业的核心议程背道而驰。</p><p><strong>美债市场同样遭受冲击。</strong>10年期美债收益率是企业贷款和住房抵押贷款的重要基准，特朗普政府明确希望压低这一利率，以减轻每年约1万亿美元的联邦债务利息负担。</p><p><strong>然而冲突爆发当日，10年期美债单日跌幅创下去年10月以来最大，令贝森特最为看重的债市指标承压。</strong>Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni直言，"市场走势反映的是地缘政治现实，而这与国内政策目标并不总是一致。"</p><h2 id=\"id_1203160205\">2022年噩梦重现风险几何？</h2><p>投资者已开始援引2022年的惨痛先例。彼时俄乌冲突爆发后，国际油价一度突破每桶100美元，推高通胀，迫使美联储激进加息，美元随之大幅走强，债市和股市双双遭受重创。</p><p><strong>目前，交易员将这一情景视为尾部风险而非基准预期。Horizon Investments首席投资官Scott Ladner表示，当前资产价格走势"与市场对伊朗局势'冲突持续时间相对较短'的定价逻辑相符"。</strong></p><p>值得注意的是，作为石油净出口国，美国资产本周表现优于高度依赖能源进口的欧洲和亚洲市场，美股相对全球其他市场的超额收益创下4月以来最大单周差距。</p><p>然而，若冲突旷日持久，能源价格长期高企，消费者信心和企业投资前景将同步承压。特朗普上月在国情咨文中还在高调宣称汽油价格下降、通胀"急剧回落"，如今油价的骤然反弹令这一叙事面临严峻考验。</p><p>Wealth Enhancement Group董事兼高级投资策略师Ayako Yoshioka指出，"这场战争可能会打击市场对通胀下行和利率走低的预期。"</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>油价美元涨、股价下跌！市场开始“施压”特朗普</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n油价美元涨、股价下跌！市场开始“施压”特朗普\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-06 11:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美伊冲突引爆金融市场连锁反应——油价单周暴涨逾10%、美债收益率跳升20基点、美元全线走强，三重压力同步重创特朗普苦心维护的三大经济晴雨表。降息预期降温、强势美元反噬出口、债务利息压力骤升，昔日政策红利正在加速瓦解，2022年俄乌冲突式的通胀噩梦阴影隐现。</p></blockquote><p>美伊冲突正在瓦解特朗普在金融市场上苦心经营的政策成果。油价飙升、美债收益率跳涨、美元强势回归，三重压力叠加，令通胀预期升温、降息路径受阻，直接威胁到特朗普最看重的几项经济"晴雨表"。</p><p>美国与以色列对伊朗发动空袭后，国际油价本周累计涨幅超过10%，通胀担忧随之重燃。交易员已开始下调对美联储今年降息幅度的预期——此前市场一度押注年内降息三次，如今连两次都难以确定。与此同时，彭博美元即期指数本周上涨逾1%，10年期美债收益率攀升约20个基点。</p><p>股市方面，美股本周整体尚能维稳，但局势仍在演变。周四，随着冲突进入第六天，油价、收益率和美元再度走高，股市随之下跌。</p><p>Schroder Investment投资组合经理Mina Krishnan警告称，</p><blockquote><p>这些意外后果对特朗普能够实现的目标构成制动，在中期选举年尤为如此。他所关注的晴雨表是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数、汽油价格和抵押贷款利率。他将自己的成功归因于这些指标，这意味着他现在也要为任何失败承担责任。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_2427076658\">三大市场目标同步受损</h2><p>在与伊朗冲突爆发之前，特朗普正在收获——无论是有意为之还是机缘巧合——他在三个关键金融市场上所期望的结果：油价下行、美债收益率走低、美元走弱。</p><p>今年1月，特朗普曾公开表示对美元近期贬值感到满意，强化了市场对白宫希望弱势美元以提振出口的预期。美元随即应声下跌，直至财政部长贝森特重申强势美元政策后才有所回稳。</p><p><strong>然而此番冲突爆发，美元迅速重拾避险货币地位，几乎对所有主要货币全线走强。若</strong>这一趋势持续，将削弱美国出口竞争力，与特朗普振兴制造业的核心议程背道而驰。</p><p><strong>美债市场同样遭受冲击。</strong>10年期美债收益率是企业贷款和住房抵押贷款的重要基准，特朗普政府明确希望压低这一利率，以减轻每年约1万亿美元的联邦债务利息负担。</p><p><strong>然而冲突爆发当日，10年期美债单日跌幅创下去年10月以来最大，令贝森特最为看重的债市指标承压。</strong>Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni直言，"市场走势反映的是地缘政治现实，而这与国内政策目标并不总是一致。"</p><h2 id=\"id_1203160205\">2022年噩梦重现风险几何？</h2><p>投资者已开始援引2022年的惨痛先例。彼时俄乌冲突爆发后，国际油价一度突破每桶100美元，推高通胀，迫使美联储激进加息，美元随之大幅走强，债市和股市双双遭受重创。</p><p><strong>目前，交易员将这一情景视为尾部风险而非基准预期。Horizon Investments首席投资官Scott Ladner表示，当前资产价格走势"与市场对伊朗局势'冲突持续时间相对较短'的定价逻辑相符"。</strong></p><p>值得注意的是，作为石油净出口国，美国资产本周表现优于高度依赖能源进口的欧洲和亚洲市场，美股相对全球其他市场的超额收益创下4月以来最大单周差距。</p><p>然而，若冲突旷日持久，能源价格长期高企，消费者信心和企业投资前景将同步承压。特朗普上月在国情咨文中还在高调宣称汽油价格下降、通胀"急剧回落"，如今油价的骤然反弹令这一叙事面临严峻考验。</p><p>Wealth Enhancement Group董事兼高级投资策略师Ayako Yoshioka指出，"这场战争可能会打击市场对通胀下行和利率走低的预期。"</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/6067c7c88e5ec581ecc6d3b95459428f","relate_stocks":{"NDX":"纳斯达克100指数",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3766867","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2617065435","content_text":"美伊冲突引爆金融市场连锁反应——油价单周暴涨逾10%、美债收益率跳升20基点、美元全线走强，三重压力同步重创特朗普苦心维护的三大经济晴雨表。降息预期降温、强势美元反噬出口、债务利息压力骤升，昔日政策红利正在加速瓦解，2022年俄乌冲突式的通胀噩梦阴影隐现。美伊冲突正在瓦解特朗普在金融市场上苦心经营的政策成果。油价飙升、美债收益率跳涨、美元强势回归，三重压力叠加，令通胀预期升温、降息路径受阻，直接威胁到特朗普最看重的几项经济\"晴雨表\"。美国与以色列对伊朗发动空袭后，国际油价本周累计涨幅超过10%，通胀担忧随之重燃。交易员已开始下调对美联储今年降息幅度的预期——此前市场一度押注年内降息三次，如今连两次都难以确定。与此同时，彭博美元即期指数本周上涨逾1%，10年期美债收益率攀升约20个基点。股市方面，美股本周整体尚能维稳，但局势仍在演变。周四，随着冲突进入第六天，油价、收益率和美元再度走高，股市随之下跌。Schroder Investment投资组合经理Mina Krishnan警告称，这些意外后果对特朗普能够实现的目标构成制动，在中期选举年尤为如此。他所关注的晴雨表是标普500指数、汽油价格和抵押贷款利率。他将自己的成功归因于这些指标，这意味着他现在也要为任何失败承担责任。三大市场目标同步受损在与伊朗冲突爆发之前，特朗普正在收获——无论是有意为之还是机缘巧合——他在三个关键金融市场上所期望的结果：油价下行、美债收益率走低、美元走弱。今年1月，特朗普曾公开表示对美元近期贬值感到满意，强化了市场对白宫希望弱势美元以提振出口的预期。美元随即应声下跌，直至财政部长贝森特重申强势美元政策后才有所回稳。然而此番冲突爆发，美元迅速重拾避险货币地位，几乎对所有主要货币全线走强。若这一趋势持续，将削弱美国出口竞争力，与特朗普振兴制造业的核心议程背道而驰。美债市场同样遭受冲击。10年期美债收益率是企业贷款和住房抵押贷款的重要基准，特朗普政府明确希望压低这一利率，以减轻每年约1万亿美元的联邦债务利息负担。然而冲突爆发当日，10年期美债单日跌幅创下去年10月以来最大，令贝森特最为看重的债市指标承压。Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni直言，\"市场走势反映的是地缘政治现实，而这与国内政策目标并不总是一致。\"2022年噩梦重现风险几何？投资者已开始援引2022年的惨痛先例。彼时俄乌冲突爆发后，国际油价一度突破每桶100美元，推高通胀，迫使美联储激进加息，美元随之大幅走强，债市和股市双双遭受重创。目前，交易员将这一情景视为尾部风险而非基准预期。Horizon Investments首席投资官Scott Ladner表示，当前资产价格走势\"与市场对伊朗局势'冲突持续时间相对较短'的定价逻辑相符\"。值得注意的是，作为石油净出口国，美国资产本周表现优于高度依赖能源进口的欧洲和亚洲市场，美股相对全球其他市场的超额收益创下4月以来最大单周差距。然而，若冲突旷日持久，能源价格长期高企，消费者信心和企业投资前景将同步承压。特朗普上月在国情咨文中还在高调宣称汽油价格下降、通胀\"急剧回落\"，如今油价的骤然反弹令这一叙事面临严峻考验。Wealth Enhancement Group董事兼高级投资策略师Ayako Yoshioka指出，\"这场战争可能会打击市场对通胀下行和利率走低的预期。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"YMmain":2,"ESmain":2,"NQmain":2,".SPX":2,"NDX":2,".DJI":2,"MNQ2612":2,"MNQmain":2,".IXIC":2,"MNQ2603":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539083537753608,"gmtCreate":1772633143651,"gmtModify":1772633146979,"author":{"id":"3568099945700012","authorId":"3568099945700012","name":"没有人比我更懂韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15391474b6bf8712ad5c17ea6bad5690","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568099945700012","authorIdStr":"3568099945700012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不可能长期封锁 伊朗没有那么多子弹和外汇储备…只不过我依然不看好…美债收益率下不来这是最核心的[无语]","listText":"不可能长期封锁 伊朗没有那么多子弹和外汇储备…只不过我依然不看好…美债收益率下不来这是最核心的[无语]","text":"不可能长期封锁 伊朗没有那么多子弹和外汇储备…只不过我依然不看好…美债收益率下不来这是最核心的[无语]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539083537753608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000462","authorId":"9000000000000462","name":"MyrnaNorth","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58e77982f280b570830d1b8273d6de7e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000462","authorIdStr":"9000000000000462"},"content":"美债压不住，心累死了！","text":"美债压不住，心累死了！","html":"美债压不住，心累死了！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":539075240781256,"gmtCreate":1772631060072,"gmtModify":1772631062802,"author":{"id":"3568099945700012","authorId":"3568099945700012","name":"没有人比我更懂韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15391474b6bf8712ad5c17ea6bad5690","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568099945700012","authorIdStr":"3568099945700012"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[傲娇]时间节点不对而已 流动性危机黄金都是跌的 等杠杠资金出的差不多才会开始涨","listText":"[傲娇]时间节点不对而已 流动性危机黄金都是跌的 等杠杠资金出的差不多才会开始涨","text":"[傲娇]时间节点不对而已 流动性危机黄金都是跌的 等杠杠资金出的差不多才会开始涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/539075240781256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}