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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-11
  Good potential
  2,038 评论
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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-11
  To the moon!
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,027 1
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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-11
  Great stock
  1,972 评论
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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-11
  Nice
  Jeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这是多么危险</blockquote>
  New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or s
  Jeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这是多么危险</blockquote>
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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-11
  Like and comment pls
  Will The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote>
  In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop
  Will The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote>
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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-06
  Hope for good News
  1,120 评论
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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-05
  Good s
  1,115 评论
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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-05
  Yes you should
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-04
  Good stock
  1,050 评论
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- edwinsercledwinsercl
  ·2021-06-04
  Like and comment pls
  Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>
  Summary Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite
  Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>
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moon!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188092395","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188091060,"gmtCreate":1623415119150,"gmtModify":1634033548985,"author":{"id":"3568292500541996","authorId":"3568292500541996","name":"edwinsercl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7139200c8e6e121141ef3eec72adebae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568292500541996","idStr":"3568292500541996"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great stock","listText":"Great stock","text":"Great 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20:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这是多么危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115909292","media":"cnn","summary":"New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or s","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or sail it forever in a fleet of megayachts. He could afford to buy a the whole NFL; he could buy an archipelago for his family and friends; he could buy over 65,000 Bugatti Chirons (base price $2.9 million), even though only 500 are being built. As the world's richest person, the possibilities are endless. But Bezos appears ready to risk it all for an 11-minute ride to space.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）杰夫·贝索斯可以拥有任何东西。他可以乘坐私人飞机环游地球，或者乘坐巨型游艇永远航行。他有能力买下整个NFL；他可以为他的家人和朋友买一个群岛；他可以购买超过65,000辆布加迪Chiron（底价290万美元），尽管只生产了500辆。作为世界首富，可能性是无穷无尽的。但贝佐斯似乎准备冒着一切风险乘坐11分钟的太空之旅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Just how risky is his decision?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他的决定到底有多冒险？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer isn't what you might expect. Space travel is, historically, fraught with danger. Though the risks are not necessarily astronomical for Bezos' jaunt to the cosmos, as his space company Blue Origin has spent the better part of the last decade running the suborbital New Shepard rocket he'll be riding on through a series of successful test flights. (Also, being in space is Bezos' lifelong dream.)</p><p><blockquote>答案并不是你所期望的。从历史上看，太空旅行充满了危险。尽管对于贝佐斯的太空之旅来说，风险不一定是天文数字，因为他的太空公司蓝色起源在过去十年的大部分时间里都在运行亚轨道新谢泼德火箭，他将乘坐该火箭进行一系列成功的试飞。（还有，进入太空是贝索斯一生的梦想。）</blockquote></p><p> Still, what Bezos, his brother Mark Bezos, and the winner of an online auction, will be doing -- going on the very first crewed flight of New Shepard, a fully autonomous suborbital rocket and spacecraft system designed to take ticket holders on brief joy rides to space -- is not entirely without risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，贝佐斯、他的兄弟马克·贝佐斯以及在线拍卖的获胜者将会做什么——参加新谢泼德号的首次载人飞行，这是一个完全自主的亚轨道火箭和航天器系统，旨在带持票人进行短暂的欢乐之旅到太空——并非完全没有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what Bezos' flight will look like and the extent to which people are taking their lives in their hands when they go to outer space these days.</p><p><blockquote>以下是贝佐斯的飞行将会是什么样子，以及如今人们前往外太空时将自己的生命掌握在自己手中的程度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the flight looks like</b></p><p><blockquote><b>航班的样子</b></blockquote></p><p> When most people think about spaceflight, they think about an astronaut circling the Earth, floating in space, for at least a few days.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数人想到太空飞行时，他们会想到一名宇航员绕地球飞行，漂浮在太空中，至少几天。</blockquote></p><p> That is not what the Bezos brothers and their fellow passengers will be doing .</p><p><blockquote>贝佐斯兄弟和他们的乘客不会这么做。</blockquote></p><p> They'll be going up and coming right back down, and they'll be doing it in less time -- about 11 minutes -- than it takes most people to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>他们会上去然后马上下来，而且他们会在比大多数人上班所需的时间更短的时间内完成——大约11分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights differ greatly from orbital flights of the type most of us think of when we think of spaceflight. Blue Origin's New Shepard flights will be brief, up-and-down trips, though they will go more than 62 miles above Earth, which is widely considered to be the edge of outer space.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行与我们大多数人想到太空飞行时想到的轨道飞行有很大不同。蓝色起源的新谢泼德航班将是短暂的上下旅行，尽管它们将在地球上空62英里以上，地球被广泛认为是外太空的边缘。</blockquote></p><p> Orbital rockets need to drum up enough power to hit at least 17,000 miles per hour, or what's known as orbital velocity, essentially giving a spacecraft enough energy to continue whipping around the Earth rather than being dragged immediately back down by gravity.</p><p><blockquote>轨道火箭需要获得足够的动力才能达到至少17,000英里/小时，即所谓的轨道速度，本质上是为航天器提供足够的能量继续绕地球运行，而不是立即被重力拖回。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights require far less power and speed. That means less time the rocket is required to burn, lower temperatures scorching the outside of the spacecraft, less force and compression ripping at the spacecraft, and generally fewer opportunities for something to go very wrong.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行需要的功率和速度要小得多。这意味着火箭燃烧所需的时间更少，烧焦航天器外部的温度更低，航天器上的力和压缩撕裂更少，并且通常出现严重问题的机会更少。</blockquote></p><p> New Shepard's suborbital fights hit about about three times the speed of sound — roughly 2,300 miles per hour — and fly directly upward until the rocket expends most of its fuel. The crew capsule will then separate from the rocket at the top of the trajectory and briefly continue upward before the capsule almost hovers at the top of its flight path, giving the passengers a few minutes of weightlessness. It works sort of like an extended version of the weightlessness you experience when you reach the peak of a roller coaster hill, just before gravity brings your cart — or, in Bezos' case, your space capsule -- screaming back down toward the ground.</p><p><blockquote>新谢泼德的亚轨道战斗达到了大约三倍音速——大约每小时2300英里——并直接向上飞行，直到火箭耗尽大部分燃料。然后，乘员舱将在轨道顶部与火箭分离，并在太空舱几乎悬停在其飞行路径顶部之前短暂继续向上，为乘客提供几分钟的失重状态。它的工作原理有点像当你到达过山车山顶时所经历的失重的扩展版本，就在重力将你的手推车——或者在贝佐斯的情况下，你的太空舱——带着尖叫回到地面之前。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aeef7cd6efed45b4f08991c7c4b7be4\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The New Shepard capsule then deploys a large plume of parachutes to slow its descent to less than 20 miles per hour before it hits the ground.</p><p><blockquote>然后，新谢泼德太空舱部署大量降落伞，在落地前将其下降速度减慢到每小时20英里以下。</blockquote></p><p> The rocket, flying separately, re-ignites its engines and uses its on-board computers to execute a pinpoint, upright landing. The booster landing looks similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9 rockets, though those rockets are far more powerful than New Shepard and — yes — more prone to exploding on impact.</p><p><blockquote>火箭单独飞行，重新点燃发动机，并使用机载计算机执行精确的直立着陆。助推器着陆看起来类似于SpaceX的猎鹰9号火箭，尽管这些火箭比新谢泼德火箭强大得多，而且——是的——更容易在撞击时爆炸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How big are the risks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险有多大？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin's New Shepard capsule, which is fully autonomous and does not require a pilot, has never had an explosive mishap in 15 test flights. And the nature of Bezos' flight means it comes with some inherently lower risks than more ambitious space travel attempts. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero, either.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源的新谢泼德太空舱是完全自主的，不需要飞行员，在15次试飞中从未发生过爆炸事故。贝佐斯飞行的性质意味着它的风险比更雄心勃勃的太空旅行尝试要低。但这也不意味着风险为零。</blockquote></p><p> Because suborbital flights don't require as much speed or the intense process of trying to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, they're considered much less risky than orbital flights. With an orbital re-entry, a spacecraft's external temperatures can reach up to 3,500 degrees Fahrenheit, and astronauts can experience 4.5 Gs of force that is also placed upon the spacecraft, all while the ever-thickening atmosphere whips around the capsule.</p><p><blockquote>因为亚轨道飞行不需要那么高的速度，也不需要试图以令人难以置信的速度重返地球大气层的紧张过程，所以它们被认为比轨道飞行风险小得多。随着轨道重返，航天器的外部温度可以达到3500华氏度，宇航员可以承受4.5克的力，这种力也施加在航天器上，同时不断变厚的大气在太空舱周围跳动。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> High speeds and high altitudes come with inherent risks, and even small errors can have big consequences. Earth's atmosphere is generally not considered survivable for significant amounts of time above altitudes of 50,000 feet without a spacesuit, and Bezos will be traveling up to 350,000 feet. But the capsule he travels in will be pressurized, so he doesn't need a special suit to keep him safe, and he'll have access to an oxygen mask if the cabin loses pressure. The spacecraft is also equipped with an abort system designed to jettison the New Shepard capsule and passengers away from the rocket in case of emergency. There's also back-up safety features to help the capsule land gently even if a couple of its parachutes fail to deploy.</p><p><blockquote>高速和高海拔伴随着固有的风险，即使是很小的错误也会产生很大的后果。如果没有宇航服，地球大气层通常被认为无法在50,000英尺以上的高度生存很长时间，贝佐斯将旅行到350,000英尺。但是他乘坐的太空舱将被加压，所以他不需要特殊的宇航服来保证他的安全，如果机舱失去压力，他可以使用氧气面罩。该航天器还配备了一个中止系统，旨在在紧急情况下将新谢泼德太空舱和乘客抛离火箭。还有备用安全功能，即使几个降落伞未能展开，也可以帮助太空舱平稳着陆。</blockquote></p><p> But even still, there is no way to absolutely guarantee safety should New Shepard malfunction.</p><p><blockquote>但即便如此，如果新谢泼德出现故障，也没有办法绝对保证安全。</blockquote></p><p> Even though suborbital flights are less risky than orbital missions, they can still be deadly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚轨道飞行的风险低于轨道任务，但它们仍然可能是致命的。</blockquote></p><p> One of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space planes, for example, broke apart in 2014 when one of the vehicle's copilots prematurely deployed the feathering system designed to keep the craft stable as it made its descent. The added drag on the plane ripped it to pieces, killing one of the pilots.</p><p><blockquote>例如，维珍银河的一架亚轨道太空飞机在2014年解体，当时飞行器的一名副驾驶过早地部署了旨在保持飞行器下降时稳定的羽毛系统。飞机上增加的阻力将其撕成碎片，导致一名飞行员死亡。</blockquote></p><p> (Blue Origin competitor Virgin Galactic has since had three successful test flights of a revamped version of its SpaceShipTwo space plane.)</p><p><blockquote>（蓝色起源的竞争对手维珍银河已经对其太空飞船二号的改进型进行了三次成功的试飞。）</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin has not encountered similar tragic accidents during its testing phase, though — as an old industry adage goes — space is hard.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源在测试阶段没有遇到过类似的悲惨事故，尽管——正如一句古老的行业格言所说——太空是艰难的。</blockquote></p><p> But, Bezos has indicated, the risk is worth it.</p><p><blockquote>但是，贝佐斯表示，这个风险是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这是多么危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJeff Bezos is going to space for 11 minutes. Here's how risky that is<blockquote>杰夫·贝索斯将进入太空11分钟。这是多么危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">cnn</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 20:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or sail it forever in a fleet of megayachts. He could afford to buy a the whole NFL; he could buy an archipelago for his family and friends; he could buy over 65,000 Bugatti Chirons (base price $2.9 million), even though only 500 are being built. As the world's richest person, the possibilities are endless. But Bezos appears ready to risk it all for an 11-minute ride to space.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（CNN商业）杰夫·贝索斯可以拥有任何东西。他可以乘坐私人飞机环游地球，或者乘坐巨型游艇永远航行。他有能力买下整个NFL；他可以为他的家人和朋友买一个群岛；他可以购买超过65,000辆布加迪Chiron（底价290万美元），尽管只生产了500辆。作为世界首富，可能性是无穷无尽的。但贝佐斯似乎准备冒着一切风险乘坐11分钟的太空之旅。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Just how risky is his decision?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>他的决定到底有多冒险？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer isn't what you might expect. Space travel is, historically, fraught with danger. Though the risks are not necessarily astronomical for Bezos' jaunt to the cosmos, as his space company Blue Origin has spent the better part of the last decade running the suborbital New Shepard rocket he'll be riding on through a series of successful test flights. (Also, being in space is Bezos' lifelong dream.)</p><p><blockquote>答案并不是你所期望的。从历史上看，太空旅行充满了危险。尽管对于贝佐斯的太空之旅来说，风险不一定是天文数字，因为他的太空公司蓝色起源在过去十年的大部分时间里都在运行亚轨道新谢泼德火箭，他将乘坐该火箭进行一系列成功的试飞。（还有，进入太空是贝索斯一生的梦想。）</blockquote></p><p> Still, what Bezos, his brother Mark Bezos, and the winner of an online auction, will be doing -- going on the very first crewed flight of New Shepard, a fully autonomous suborbital rocket and spacecraft system designed to take ticket holders on brief joy rides to space -- is not entirely without risk.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，贝佐斯、他的兄弟马克·贝佐斯以及在线拍卖的获胜者将会做什么——参加新谢泼德号的首次载人飞行，这是一个完全自主的亚轨道火箭和航天器系统，旨在带持票人进行短暂的欢乐之旅到太空——并非完全没有风险。</blockquote></p><p> Here's what Bezos' flight will look like and the extent to which people are taking their lives in their hands when they go to outer space these days.</p><p><blockquote>以下是贝佐斯的飞行将会是什么样子，以及如今人们前往外太空时将自己的生命掌握在自己手中的程度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the flight looks like</b></p><p><blockquote><b>航班的样子</b></blockquote></p><p> When most people think about spaceflight, they think about an astronaut circling the Earth, floating in space, for at least a few days.</p><p><blockquote>当大多数人想到太空飞行时，他们会想到一名宇航员绕地球飞行，漂浮在太空中，至少几天。</blockquote></p><p> That is not what the Bezos brothers and their fellow passengers will be doing .</p><p><blockquote>贝佐斯兄弟和他们的乘客不会这么做。</blockquote></p><p> They'll be going up and coming right back down, and they'll be doing it in less time -- about 11 minutes -- than it takes most people to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>他们会上去然后马上下来，而且他们会在比大多数人上班所需的时间更短的时间内完成——大约11分钟。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights differ greatly from orbital flights of the type most of us think of when we think of spaceflight. Blue Origin's New Shepard flights will be brief, up-and-down trips, though they will go more than 62 miles above Earth, which is widely considered to be the edge of outer space.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行与我们大多数人想到太空飞行时想到的轨道飞行有很大不同。蓝色起源的新谢泼德航班将是短暂的上下旅行，尽管它们将在地球上空62英里以上，地球被广泛认为是外太空的边缘。</blockquote></p><p> Orbital rockets need to drum up enough power to hit at least 17,000 miles per hour, or what's known as orbital velocity, essentially giving a spacecraft enough energy to continue whipping around the Earth rather than being dragged immediately back down by gravity.</p><p><blockquote>轨道火箭需要获得足够的动力才能达到至少17,000英里/小时，即所谓的轨道速度，本质上是为航天器提供足够的能量继续绕地球运行，而不是立即被重力拖回。</blockquote></p><p> Suborbital flights require far less power and speed. That means less time the rocket is required to burn, lower temperatures scorching the outside of the spacecraft, less force and compression ripping at the spacecraft, and generally fewer opportunities for something to go very wrong.</p><p><blockquote>亚轨道飞行需要的功率和速度要小得多。这意味着火箭燃烧所需的时间更少，烧焦航天器外部的温度更低，航天器上的力和压缩撕裂更少，并且通常出现严重问题的机会更少。</blockquote></p><p> New Shepard's suborbital fights hit about about three times the speed of sound — roughly 2,300 miles per hour — and fly directly upward until the rocket expends most of its fuel. The crew capsule will then separate from the rocket at the top of the trajectory and briefly continue upward before the capsule almost hovers at the top of its flight path, giving the passengers a few minutes of weightlessness. It works sort of like an extended version of the weightlessness you experience when you reach the peak of a roller coaster hill, just before gravity brings your cart — or, in Bezos' case, your space capsule -- screaming back down toward the ground.</p><p><blockquote>新谢泼德的亚轨道战斗达到了大约三倍音速——大约每小时2300英里——并直接向上飞行，直到火箭耗尽大部分燃料。然后，乘员舱将在轨道顶部与火箭分离，并在太空舱几乎悬停在其飞行路径顶部之前短暂继续向上，为乘客提供几分钟的失重状态。它的工作原理有点像当你到达过山车山顶时所经历的失重的扩展版本，就在重力将你的手推车——或者在贝佐斯的情况下，你的太空舱——带着尖叫回到地面之前。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aeef7cd6efed45b4f08991c7c4b7be4\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"438\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The New Shepard capsule then deploys a large plume of parachutes to slow its descent to less than 20 miles per hour before it hits the ground.</p><p><blockquote>然后，新谢泼德太空舱部署大量降落伞，在落地前将其下降速度减慢到每小时20英里以下。</blockquote></p><p> The rocket, flying separately, re-ignites its engines and uses its on-board computers to execute a pinpoint, upright landing. The booster landing looks similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9 rockets, though those rockets are far more powerful than New Shepard and — yes — more prone to exploding on impact.</p><p><blockquote>火箭单独飞行，重新点燃发动机，并使用机载计算机执行精确的直立着陆。助推器着陆看起来类似于SpaceX的猎鹰9号火箭，尽管这些火箭比新谢泼德火箭强大得多，而且——是的——更容易在撞击时爆炸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How big are the risks?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险有多大？</b></blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin's New Shepard capsule, which is fully autonomous and does not require a pilot, has never had an explosive mishap in 15 test flights. And the nature of Bezos' flight means it comes with some inherently lower risks than more ambitious space travel attempts. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero, either.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源的新谢泼德太空舱是完全自主的，不需要飞行员，在15次试飞中从未发生过爆炸事故。贝佐斯飞行的性质意味着它的风险比更雄心勃勃的太空旅行尝试要低。但这也不意味着风险为零。</blockquote></p><p> Because suborbital flights don't require as much speed or the intense process of trying to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, they're considered much less risky than orbital flights. With an orbital re-entry, a spacecraft's external temperatures can reach up to 3,500 degrees Fahrenheit, and astronauts can experience 4.5 Gs of force that is also placed upon the spacecraft, all while the ever-thickening atmosphere whips around the capsule.</p><p><blockquote>因为亚轨道飞行不需要那么高的速度，也不需要试图以令人难以置信的速度重返地球大气层的紧张过程，所以它们被认为比轨道飞行风险小得多。随着轨道重返，航天器的外部温度可以达到3500华氏度，宇航员可以承受4.5克的力，这种力也施加在航天器上，同时不断变厚的大气在太空舱周围跳动。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> High speeds and high altitudes come with inherent risks, and even small errors can have big consequences. Earth's atmosphere is generally not considered survivable for significant amounts of time above altitudes of 50,000 feet without a spacesuit, and Bezos will be traveling up to 350,000 feet. But the capsule he travels in will be pressurized, so he doesn't need a special suit to keep him safe, and he'll have access to an oxygen mask if the cabin loses pressure. The spacecraft is also equipped with an abort system designed to jettison the New Shepard capsule and passengers away from the rocket in case of emergency. There's also back-up safety features to help the capsule land gently even if a couple of its parachutes fail to deploy.</p><p><blockquote>高速和高海拔伴随着固有的风险，即使是很小的错误也会产生很大的后果。如果没有宇航服，地球大气层通常被认为无法在50,000英尺以上的高度生存很长时间，贝佐斯将旅行到350,000英尺。但是他乘坐的太空舱将被加压，所以他不需要特殊的宇航服来保证他的安全，如果机舱失去压力，他可以使用氧气面罩。该航天器还配备了一个中止系统，旨在在紧急情况下将新谢泼德太空舱和乘客抛离火箭。还有备用安全功能，即使几个降落伞未能展开，也可以帮助太空舱平稳着陆。</blockquote></p><p> But even still, there is no way to absolutely guarantee safety should New Shepard malfunction.</p><p><blockquote>但即便如此，如果新谢泼德出现故障，也没有办法绝对保证安全。</blockquote></p><p> Even though suborbital flights are less risky than orbital missions, they can still be deadly.</p><p><blockquote>尽管亚轨道飞行的风险低于轨道任务，但它们仍然可能是致命的。</blockquote></p><p> One of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space planes, for example, broke apart in 2014 when one of the vehicle's copilots prematurely deployed the feathering system designed to keep the craft stable as it made its descent. The added drag on the plane ripped it to pieces, killing one of the pilots.</p><p><blockquote>例如，维珍银河的一架亚轨道太空飞机在2014年解体，当时飞行器的一名副驾驶过早地部署了旨在保持飞行器下降时稳定的羽毛系统。飞机上增加的阻力将其撕成碎片，导致一名飞行员死亡。</blockquote></p><p> (Blue Origin competitor Virgin Galactic has since had three successful test flights of a revamped version of its SpaceShipTwo space plane.)</p><p><blockquote>（蓝色起源的竞争对手维珍银河已经对其太空飞船二号的改进型进行了三次成功的试飞。）</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin has not encountered similar tragic accidents during its testing phase, though — as an old industry adage goes — space is hard.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源在测试阶段没有遇到过类似的悲惨事故，尽管——正如一句古老的行业格言所说——太空是艰难的。</blockquote></p><p> But, Bezos has indicated, the risk is worth it.</p><p><blockquote>但是，贝佐斯表示，这个风险是值得的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/10/tech/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-flight-risk-scn/index.html\">cnn</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/10/tech/jeff-bezos-blue-origin-flight-risk-scn/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115909292","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)Jeff Bezos can have anything. He could circle the globe in a private jet or sail it forever in a fleet of megayachts. He could afford to buy a the whole NFL; he could buy an archipelago for his family and friends; he could buy over 65,000 Bugatti Chirons (base price $2.9 million), even though only 500 are being built. As the world's richest person, the possibilities are endless. But Bezos appears ready to risk it all for an 11-minute ride to space.\nJust how risky is his decision?\nThe answer isn't what you might expect. Space travel is, historically, fraught with danger. Though the risks are not necessarily astronomical for Bezos' jaunt to the cosmos, as his space company Blue Origin has spent the better part of the last decade running the suborbital New Shepard rocket he'll be riding on through a series of successful test flights. (Also, being in space is Bezos' lifelong dream.)\nStill, what Bezos, his brother Mark Bezos, and the winner of an online auction, will be doing -- going on the very first crewed flight of New Shepard, a fully autonomous suborbital rocket and spacecraft system designed to take ticket holders on brief joy rides to space -- is not entirely without risk.\nHere's what Bezos' flight will look like and the extent to which people are taking their lives in their hands when they go to outer space these days.\nWhat the flight looks like\nWhen most people think about spaceflight, they think about an astronaut circling the Earth, floating in space, for at least a few days.\nThat is not what the Bezos brothers and their fellow passengers will be doing .\nThey'll be going up and coming right back down, and they'll be doing it in less time -- about 11 minutes -- than it takes most people to get to work.\nSuborbital flights differ greatly from orbital flights of the type most of us think of when we think of spaceflight. Blue Origin's New Shepard flights will be brief, up-and-down trips, though they will go more than 62 miles above Earth, which is widely considered to be the edge of outer space.\nOrbital rockets need to drum up enough power to hit at least 17,000 miles per hour, or what's known as orbital velocity, essentially giving a spacecraft enough energy to continue whipping around the Earth rather than being dragged immediately back down by gravity.\nSuborbital flights require far less power and speed. That means less time the rocket is required to burn, lower temperatures scorching the outside of the spacecraft, less force and compression ripping at the spacecraft, and generally fewer opportunities for something to go very wrong.\nNew Shepard's suborbital fights hit about about three times the speed of sound — roughly 2,300 miles per hour — and fly directly upward until the rocket expends most of its fuel. The crew capsule will then separate from the rocket at the top of the trajectory and briefly continue upward before the capsule almost hovers at the top of its flight path, giving the passengers a few minutes of weightlessness. It works sort of like an extended version of the weightlessness you experience when you reach the peak of a roller coaster hill, just before gravity brings your cart — or, in Bezos' case, your space capsule -- screaming back down toward the ground.\n\nThe New Shepard capsule then deploys a large plume of parachutes to slow its descent to less than 20 miles per hour before it hits the ground.\nThe rocket, flying separately, re-ignites its engines and uses its on-board computers to execute a pinpoint, upright landing. The booster landing looks similar to what SpaceX does with its Falcon 9 rockets, though those rockets are far more powerful than New Shepard and — yes — more prone to exploding on impact.\nHow big are the risks?\nBlue Origin's New Shepard capsule, which is fully autonomous and does not require a pilot, has never had an explosive mishap in 15 test flights. And the nature of Bezos' flight means it comes with some inherently lower risks than more ambitious space travel attempts. But that doesn't mean the risk is zero, either.\nBecause suborbital flights don't require as much speed or the intense process of trying to re-enter the Earth's atmosphere at incredible speeds, they're considered much less risky than orbital flights. With an orbital re-entry, a spacecraft's external temperatures can reach up to 3,500 degrees Fahrenheit, and astronauts can experience 4.5 Gs of force that is also placed upon the spacecraft, all while the ever-thickening atmosphere whips around the capsule.\nHigh speeds and high altitudes come with inherent risks, and even small errors can have big consequences. Earth's atmosphere is generally not considered survivable for significant amounts of time above altitudes of 50,000 feet without a spacesuit, and Bezos will be traveling up to 350,000 feet. But the capsule he travels in will be pressurized, so he doesn't need a special suit to keep him safe, and he'll have access to an oxygen mask if the cabin loses pressure. The spacecraft is also equipped with an abort system designed to jettison the New Shepard capsule and passengers away from the rocket in case of emergency. There's also back-up safety features to help the capsule land gently even if a couple of its parachutes fail to deploy.\nBut even still, there is no way to absolutely guarantee safety should New Shepard malfunction.\nEven though suborbital flights are less risky than orbital missions, they can still be deadly.\nOne of Virgin Galactic's suborbital space planes, for example, broke apart in 2014 when one of the vehicle's copilots prematurely deployed the feathering system designed to keep the craft stable as it made its descent. The added drag on the plane ripped it to pieces, killing one of the pilots.\n(Blue Origin competitor Virgin Galactic has since had three successful test flights of a revamped version of its SpaceShipTwo space plane.)\nBlue Origin has not encountered similar tragic accidents during its testing phase, though — as an old industry adage goes — space is hard.\nBut, Bezos has indicated, the risk is worth it.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188002222,"gmtCreate":1623414816066,"gmtModify":1634033554164,"author":{"id":"3568292500541996","authorId":"3568292500541996","name":"edwinsercl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7139200c8e6e121141ef3eec72adebae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568292500541996","idStr":"3568292500541996"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like and comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188002222","repostId":"1147816654","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147816654","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623411742,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147816654?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 19:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147816654","media":"The Street","summary":"In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop","content":"<p>  <b>In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop and AMC.</b>  The Reddit army is back in full force!</p><p><blockquote><b>在上次meme股票上涨中，继游戏驿站和AMC之后，贵金属成为Reddit交易者的目标。</b>Reddit大军全面回归！</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks, driven by members of the WallStreetBets forum on the site looking to short squeeze big hedge funds, first came to prominence in a major way back at the beginning of 2021. GameStop (GME) was the first stock of choice, which saw its stock price rise from around $18 a share on New Year's Day to nearly $500 at its peak. It was soon joined by names, such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR) and BlackBerry (BB). After a brief hiatus, the group is back with AMC as their stock of choice.</p><p><blockquote>在网站上WallStreetBets论坛成员寻求做空大型对冲基金的推动下，Meme股票在2021年初首次崭露头角。游戏驿站（GME）是首选股票，其股价从元旦的每股18美元左右上涨至最高点的近500美元。很快，AMC院线(AMC)、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)、Express(EXPR)和黑莓(BB)等公司也加入了进来。经过短暂的中断后，该集团重新将AMC作为他们的首选股票。</blockquote></p><p> One stock that this group went after wasn't even a stock at all. It was the<b>iShares Silver Trust (SLV)</b>. It started with, not surprisingly, aReddit postwhere one trader argued that precious metals prices have been manipulated by the big banks for years and could be an ideal target for the next big squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>这群人追逐的一只股票根本不是股票。这是<b>iShares白银信托(SLV)</b>毫不奇怪，它始于Eddit的一篇帖子，一位交易员在帖子中辩称，贵金属价格多年来一直被大银行操纵，可能是下一次大挤压的理想目标。</blockquote></p><p> So they tried it and they were successful.......for a day.</p><p><blockquote>所以他们尝试了一下，并且成功了.......一天。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1d77c395486d36223fb07516c1b28c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"308\">Silver prices (and the price of SLV) popped by about 10% on the news that the WallStreetBets crowd was going to go after it, but the rally was short-lived. The share price was back down to where it was before the spike the next day and it still hasn't come near its previous heights again.</p><p><blockquote>有消息称WallStreetBets人群将追捧白银，白银价格（以及SLV的价格）上涨了约10%，但涨势是短暂的。第二天股价回落至飙升前的水平，但仍未再次接近之前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> It turns out that moving a stock, such as AMC, and moving the price of silver are two entirely different things. While many people picture jewelry and silverware when they think of silver, in reality, the major of its demand comes from heavy industry.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，移动一只股票，比如AMC，和移动白银的价格是完全不同的两件事。虽然许多人一想到银就会想到珠宝和银器，但实际上，银的主要需求来自重工业。</blockquote></p><p> It's used in the production of solar panels, electrical components, fuses, automobiles and industrial adhesives. Silverdemandin 2020 for industrial fabrication purposes was more than triple that of the jewelry market, more than double that for silver bars &amp; coins and more than 15 times that of silverware.</p><p><blockquote>它用于生产太阳能电池板、电子元件、保险丝、汽车和工业粘合剂。2020年，用于工业制造的Silverdemandin是珠宝市场的三倍多，银条和银币的两倍多，银器的15倍多。</blockquote></p><p> With that much constant global demand for silver, which is only expected to continue growing, it's incredibly difficult to whipsaw its price around to any significant degree (especially up to the $1,000 per ounce price target that Reddit was calling for). I'm honestly a little surprised that it was able to generate a one-day 10% gain just on meme stock speculation alone.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球对白银的需求如此稳定，预计只会继续增长，因此很难大幅调整其价格（尤其是达到Reddit呼吁的每盎司1,000美元的价格目标）。老实说，我有点惊讶，仅靠模因股票投机，它就能够在一天内产生10%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks, such as AMC and GameStop, are small enough (they may not technically be considered \"small\" any more) that with enough trading volume they can be pushed pretty significantly in a fairly short amount of time. Plus, the stocks that the Reddit traders were targeting already had high short interest, meaning that any large buying activity was probably exacerbated by people short covering in order to stop the bleeding.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站等股票规模足够小（从技术上讲，它们可能不再被视为“小”），只要有足够的交易量，它们就可以在相当短的时间内大幅上涨。此外，Reddit交易员瞄准的股票已经有很高的空头兴趣，这意味着任何大规模的购买活动都可能因人们为了止血而进行空头回补而加剧。</blockquote></p><p> That's going to be difficult to pull off for silver. My guess is that the WallStreetBets group never takes a swing at silver again. It seems content to find new targets, such as Clover (CLOV), to try to push to the moon.</p><p><blockquote>对于白银来说，这将很难实现。我的猜测是，WallStreetBets集团再也不会向白银发起攻击了。它似乎满足于寻找新的目标，如三叶草（CLOV），试图向月球推进。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill The WallStreetBets Crowd Come After Silver Again?<blockquote>WallStreetBets人群会再次追逐Silver吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 19:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop and AMC.</b>  The Reddit army is back in full force!</p><p><blockquote><b>在上次meme股票上涨中，继游戏驿站和AMC之后，贵金属成为Reddit交易者的目标。</b>Reddit大军全面回归！</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks, driven by members of the WallStreetBets forum on the site looking to short squeeze big hedge funds, first came to prominence in a major way back at the beginning of 2021. GameStop (GME) was the first stock of choice, which saw its stock price rise from around $18 a share on New Year's Day to nearly $500 at its peak. It was soon joined by names, such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR) and BlackBerry (BB). After a brief hiatus, the group is back with AMC as their stock of choice.</p><p><blockquote>在网站上WallStreetBets论坛成员寻求做空大型对冲基金的推动下，Meme股票在2021年初首次崭露头角。游戏驿站（GME）是首选股票，其股价从元旦的每股18美元左右上涨至最高点的近500美元。很快，AMC院线(AMC)、Bed Bath&amp;Beyond(BBBY)、Express(EXPR)和黑莓(BB)等公司也加入了进来。经过短暂的中断后，该集团重新将AMC作为他们的首选股票。</blockquote></p><p> One stock that this group went after wasn't even a stock at all. It was the<b>iShares Silver Trust (SLV)</b>. It started with, not surprisingly, aReddit postwhere one trader argued that precious metals prices have been manipulated by the big banks for years and could be an ideal target for the next big squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>这群人追逐的一只股票根本不是股票。这是<b>iShares白银信托(SLV)</b>毫不奇怪，它始于Eddit的一篇帖子，一位交易员在帖子中辩称，贵金属价格多年来一直被大银行操纵，可能是下一次大挤压的理想目标。</blockquote></p><p> So they tried it and they were successful.......for a day.</p><p><blockquote>所以他们尝试了一下，并且成功了.......一天。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f1d77c395486d36223fb07516c1b28c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"308\">Silver prices (and the price of SLV) popped by about 10% on the news that the WallStreetBets crowd was going to go after it, but the rally was short-lived. The share price was back down to where it was before the spike the next day and it still hasn't come near its previous heights again.</p><p><blockquote>有消息称WallStreetBets人群将追捧白银，白银价格（以及SLV的价格）上涨了约10%，但涨势是短暂的。第二天股价回落至飙升前的水平，但仍未再次接近之前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> It turns out that moving a stock, such as AMC, and moving the price of silver are two entirely different things. While many people picture jewelry and silverware when they think of silver, in reality, the major of its demand comes from heavy industry.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，移动一只股票，比如AMC，和移动白银的价格是完全不同的两件事。虽然许多人一想到银就会想到珠宝和银器，但实际上，银的主要需求来自重工业。</blockquote></p><p> It's used in the production of solar panels, electrical components, fuses, automobiles and industrial adhesives. Silverdemandin 2020 for industrial fabrication purposes was more than triple that of the jewelry market, more than double that for silver bars &amp; coins and more than 15 times that of silverware.</p><p><blockquote>它用于生产太阳能电池板、电子元件、保险丝、汽车和工业粘合剂。2020年，用于工业制造的Silverdemandin是珠宝市场的三倍多，银条和银币的两倍多，银器的15倍多。</blockquote></p><p> With that much constant global demand for silver, which is only expected to continue growing, it's incredibly difficult to whipsaw its price around to any significant degree (especially up to the $1,000 per ounce price target that Reddit was calling for). I'm honestly a little surprised that it was able to generate a one-day 10% gain just on meme stock speculation alone.</p><p><blockquote>由于全球对白银的需求如此稳定，预计只会继续增长，因此很难大幅调整其价格（尤其是达到Reddit呼吁的每盎司1,000美元的价格目标）。老实说，我有点惊讶，仅靠模因股票投机，它就能够在一天内产生10%的涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks, such as AMC and GameStop, are small enough (they may not technically be considered \"small\" any more) that with enough trading volume they can be pushed pretty significantly in a fairly short amount of time. Plus, the stocks that the Reddit traders were targeting already had high short interest, meaning that any large buying activity was probably exacerbated by people short covering in order to stop the bleeding.</p><p><blockquote>AMC和游戏驿站等股票规模足够小（从技术上讲，它们可能不再被视为“小”），只要有足够的交易量，它们就可以在相当短的时间内大幅上涨。此外，Reddit交易员瞄准的股票已经有很高的空头兴趣，这意味着任何大规模的购买活动都可能因人们为了止血而进行空头回补而加剧。</blockquote></p><p> That's going to be difficult to pull off for silver. My guess is that the WallStreetBets group never takes a swing at silver again. It seems content to find new targets, such as Clover (CLOV), to try to push to the moon.</p><p><blockquote>对于白银来说，这将很难实现。我的猜测是，WallStreetBets集团再也不会向白银发起攻击了。它似乎满足于寻找新的目标，如三叶草（CLOV），试图向月球推进。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trade-ideas/will-wallstreetbets-crowd-come-after-silver\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trade-ideas/will-wallstreetbets-crowd-come-after-silver","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147816654","content_text":"In the last meme stock run up, the precious metal became a Reddit trader crowd target after GameStop and AMC.\n\nThe Reddit army is back in full force!\nMeme stocks, driven by members of the WallStreetBets forum on the site looking to short squeeze big hedge funds, first came to prominence in a major way back at the beginning of 2021. GameStop (GME) was the first stock of choice, which saw its stock price rise from around $18 a share on New Year's Day to nearly $500 at its peak. It was soon joined by names, such as AMC Entertainment (AMC), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), Express (EXPR) and BlackBerry (BB). After a brief hiatus, the group is back with AMC as their stock of choice.\nOne stock that this group went after wasn't even a stock at all. It was theiShares Silver Trust (SLV). It started with, not surprisingly, aReddit postwhere one trader argued that precious metals prices have been manipulated by the big banks for years and could be an ideal target for the next big squeeze.\nSo they tried it and they were successful.......for a day.\nSilver prices (and the price of SLV) popped by about 10% on the news that the WallStreetBets crowd was going to go after it, but the rally was short-lived. The share price was back down to where it was before the spike the next day and it still hasn't come near its previous heights again.\nIt turns out that moving a stock, such as AMC, and moving the price of silver are two entirely different things. While many people picture jewelry and silverware when they think of silver, in reality, the major of its demand comes from heavy industry.\nIt's used in the production of solar panels, electrical components, fuses, automobiles and industrial adhesives. Silverdemandin 2020 for industrial fabrication purposes was more than triple that of the jewelry market, more than double that for silver bars & coins and more than 15 times that of silverware.\nWith that much constant global demand for silver, which is only expected to continue growing, it's incredibly difficult to whipsaw its price around to any significant degree (especially up to the $1,000 per ounce price target that Reddit was calling for). I'm honestly a little surprised that it was able to generate a one-day 10% gain just on meme stock speculation alone.\nStocks, such as AMC and GameStop, are small enough (they may not technically be considered \"small\" any more) that with enough trading volume they can be pushed pretty significantly in a fairly short amount of time. Plus, the stocks that the Reddit traders were targeting already had high short interest, meaning that any large buying activity was probably exacerbated by people short covering in order to stop the bleeding.\nThat's going to be difficult to pull off for silver. My guess is that the WallStreetBets group never takes a swing at silver again. It seems content to find new targets, such as Clover (CLOV), to try to push to the moon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112786576,"gmtCreate":1622933270195,"gmtModify":1631884325695,"author":{"id":"3568292500541996","authorId":"3568292500541996","name":"edwinsercl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7139200c8e6e121141ef3eec72adebae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568292500541996","idStr":"3568292500541996"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope for good News","listText":"Hope for good News","text":"Hope for good News","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c15a95e0b4f9089b0ee073f67a9c54","width":"1080","height":"2766"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112786576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1120,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112538658,"gmtCreate":1622883842574,"gmtModify":1634097075751,"author":{"id":"3568292500541996","authorId":"3568292500541996","name":"edwinsercl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7139200c8e6e121141ef3eec72adebae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568292500541996","idStr":"3568292500541996"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good s","listText":"Good s","text":"Good s","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9837c487c2bce6ffa57fb95030eec03c","width":"1080","height":"2766"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112538658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112538330,"gmtCreate":1622883802520,"gmtModify":1634097076116,"author":{"id":"3568292500541996","authorId":"3568292500541996","name":"edwinsercl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7139200c8e6e121141ef3eec72adebae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568292500541996","idStr":"3568292500541996"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes you should","listText":"Yes you should","text":"Yes you should","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112538330","repostId":"1158897173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116253089,"gmtCreate":1622806414541,"gmtModify":1634097843821,"author":{"id":"3568292500541996","authorId":"3568292500541996","name":"edwinsercl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7139200c8e6e121141ef3eec72adebae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568292500541996","idStr":"3568292500541996"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good stock","listText":"Good stock","text":"Good stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f21fed5b36e850a25d18d1a82364fa4","width":"1080","height":"2766"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116253089","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116250703,"gmtCreate":1622806335402,"gmtModify":1634097844923,"author":{"id":"3568292500541996","authorId":"3568292500541996","name":"edwinsercl","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7139200c8e6e121141ef3eec72adebae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568292500541996","idStr":"3568292500541996"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116250703","repostId":"1122373606","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122373606","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622793373,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122373606?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 15:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122373606","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years? What To Consider<blockquote>10年后苹果股票会在哪里？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-04 15:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.</li>  <li>Apple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.</li>  <li>Shares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f2ea192ed76d9772c2c6a820098faf5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Photo by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果在过去十年中是一项伟大的投资，但下一个十年可能会大不相同。</li><li>苹果的增长在过去十年中有所放缓，未来几年也可能不会成为增长怪物。</li><li>股价具有充足的长期上涨空间，但投资者在做出决定之前应考虑当前的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Paopano/iStock社论，来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.</p><p><blockquote>苹果（AAPL）是过去十年中最好的投资之一。然而，在接下来的十年里，它的增长可能会有所不同。然而，由于大规模的股东回报计划和向服务业的转变，苹果的股价在十年后仍可能大幅上涨——尽管目前的估值相当高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Stock Price</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Over the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:</p><p><blockquote>在过去十年中，苹果公司一直是一项伟大的投资：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d29aa34bdbc5bab7d0730a4095954e6\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>在这十年中，扣除股息前，股票回报率为900%，复合年回报率约为26%，轻松击败了同期大盘的回报率。重要的是，该公司股价的涨幅远远超过了该公司的市值，而该公司的市值在过去十年中仅增长了550%。这种差异可以用该公司的大规模股票回购计划来解释，该计划在过去十年中大幅减少了股票数量。当然，过去十年对苹果来说是商业上非常成功的时期，因为该公司受益于智能手机的兴起，同时也在手表和平板电脑等新产品上取得了成功，苹果或多或少地将其作为一个新产品类别推出。目前，股价为125美元，过去12个月上涨57%，但2021年迄今下跌6%。继2020年强劲上涨之后，股价目前似乎处于盘整格局，这并不令人意外，因为苹果的估值最近已经扩大了很多，而且该公司的业务增长似乎必须赶上最近的股价上涨。目前的一致目标价为156美元，这意味着25%的上涨潜力。由于目前没有迹象表明股价会离开当前的交易区间，我个人认为苹果短期内不会突破150美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年后苹果股票会在哪里</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果2031年的股价是无法准确预测的。正如历史一次又一次地表明的那样，甚至不可能在更短的时间内准确预测股价。然而，可以设计情景来了解在某些条件下未来股价的走势，从而了解对未来的合理预期。</blockquote></p><p> To craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.</p><p><blockquote>为了构建这样的场景，我们必须考虑苹果的业务增长、苹果的股东回报计划以及股票未来可能交易的估值倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's business growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的业务增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去曾经历过多年的强劲增长和多年的疲软增长。这主要可以用新产品推出等因素来解释，例如。手表或iPad，以及各自当前iPhone型号的强度，这些型号的需求因年份而异。其他因素，如经济增长或贸易问题，也发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5b8bd8ef6cdaa13850c1380e870554c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"419\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，过去十年收入增长了154%，但正如我们在上图中看到的，收入增长相对不均衡。2010年代初，苹果凭借iPhone的“胜利之路”实现了巨大增长，而在接下来的几年里，收入增长速度放缓。甚至有一些年份的收入同比下降，例如2016年。过去十年的平均年收入增长率为10%，但当我们考虑到2011年和2012年的强劲增长推动了这一增长率时，假设苹果将增长10%可能不太合理。未来一年也是如此。投资者还应该考虑到，公司规模越大，保持高增长率就变得越困难。然而，这并不意味着苹果的收入增长将放缓至零。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in&nbsp;high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.</p><p><blockquote>在其产品价格上涨以及中国等高增长国家市场份额增长的潜力（越来越多的人将能够购买苹果价格较高的产品）的背景下，似乎有理由假设苹果将至少从其核心业务中产生一些增长。再加上服务领域的增长——人们越来越多地使用手机，这应该会导致更高的应用支出——并考虑新产品发布的潜力（尽管我认为没有一款产品会像iPhone那样庞大），苹果应该能够以稳健的速度发展其业务。我个人认为5%-7%的收入增长率可能是未来几年的现实估计，尽管一些读者当然会有不同的意见。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's shareholder returns</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的股东回报</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，苹果过去曾大幅减少其股票数量，我相信，有理由假设未来也会发生同样的情况。过去十年，苹果回购了36%的股份。如果未来十年发生同样的情况，每股剩余股票在公司价值中的份额将上涨56%，即年化4.6%。不过，由于苹果目前的估值明显高于其历史估值，回购在未来的影响可能会较小。例如，苹果去年的股票数量仅减少了2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> This is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我相信未来十年股票数量不会再下降36%。当我们将其向下调整至25%时，当我们考虑每股指标时，这将为苹果的增长带来约3%的年度推动力，而每股指标是苹果股价增长的决定性因素。结合我5%-7%的业务增长预测，我因此假设苹果的每股长期增长将达到8%-10%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's future valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的未来估值</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司过去的估值范围很广，其股票在某些时候的市盈率非常低，而投资者在其他时候愿意支付更高的价格：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be5cb8bbc04ff0e0a13ee64f6f2bd90a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.</p><p><blockquote>五年前，可以以非常低的10倍净利润购买股票，这自然是进入或扩大头寸的好时机。然而，2020年底，该公司的股价高达该公司净利润的40倍，这似乎是一个相当高的估值。目前，AAPL的往绩市盈率为28倍，远期利润约为24倍。在上图中，我们还看到了过去3年、5年、7年和10年的市盈率中位数。很明显，苹果的估值多年来一直在扩大，这就是为什么在较短的“回顾”期内中值较高。我不认为AAPL的市盈率会达到过去十年平均市盈率的15.5倍，因为对于像苹果这样拥有强大品牌、庞大规模的优质公司来说，这似乎是一个相当低的估值。、巨大的利润和堡垒般的资产负债表。另一方面，我也不相信苹果的市盈率会永远保持在24-28倍——对于一家业务增长稳健但不引人注目的中个位数的公司来说，这似乎相当昂贵。当我们考虑到十年后利率可能会更高时，尤其如此，在其他条件相同的情况下，这应该会给所有股票的估值带来压力。因此，我认为2031年净利润20倍左右的估值可能是合理的估计，这或多或少与3年市盈率中位数一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL现在是买入还是卖出</b></blockquote></p><p> Starting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.</p><p><blockquote>从2021年每股收益估计为5.15美元开始计算，并假设到2031年每年增长7%-10%，我们的每股收益范围为10.10美元至13.40美元。将市盈率定为20倍，目标价约为每股200-270美元。因此，在235美元左右的中点，股价将较当前水平上涨约90%，年化涨幅约为6.5%。这肯定是一个不错的回报，当我们加上股息时，我们将获得大约7%的年化回报率。另一方面，我相信这也不是一个惊人的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.</p><p><blockquote>我相信，苹果公司在未来十年具有巨大的上涨潜力，但这并不令人意外——许多公司将在这么长的时间内实现显着增长。我个人对7%的预期长期回报率不太兴奋。当我们考虑到，如果苹果的估值下降，例如由于利率上升，股价在未来1-3年内确实存在相当大的下行风险，目前保持观望可能是更好的选择。长期投资者在当前水平购买股票时可能不会表现不佳，但也可能不会表现出色。目前，我对苹果的评级为持有，如果其估值接近长期平均水平，则可能买入。那些对新产品发布更乐观的人可能不同意并倾向于在这里购买，但事实证明，等待更好的机会是这里的最佳选择。</blockquote></p><p> Summing it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我想说，该股在未来十年确实有巨大的上涨潜力，但上涨潜力还不足以让我以当前较高的估值购买股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4432703-apple-stock-in-10-years","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122373606","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple has been a great investment over the last decade, but the next decade may look quite different.\nApple has seen its growth slow down over the last decade, and it will likely not be a growth monster in the coming years, either.\nShares have ample long-term upside, but investors should consider the current valuation before jumping to decisions.\n\nPhoto by Paopano/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nApple (AAPL) has been one of the best investments one could have made over the last decade. Over the next decade, its growth may not be the same, however. Yet, thanks to massive shareholder return programs and a move towards services, Apple's stock will likely still be significantly higher a decade from now - even though the current valuation is rather high.\nApple Stock Price\nOver the last decade, Apple Inc. has been a great investment:\nData by YCharts\nShares have returned 900% in those ten years, before dividends, for a compounded annual return of approximately 26%, easily trouncing the returns of the broad market during that time frame. Importantly, shares have risen a lot more than the company's market capitalization, which grew by only 550% over the last decade. The difference can be explained by the company's large share repurchase programs, which have lowered the share count drastically over the last decade. The last decade, of course, was a highly successful period for Apple on a business basis, as the company benefited from the rise of smartphones while also having success with new products such as its Watch and tablets, which Apple more or less introduced as a new product category. Right now, shares trade for $125, up 57% over the last twelve months, but down 6% in 2021 to date. Following strong gains during 2020, shares seem to be in a consolidation pattern for now, which is not too much of a surprise, as Apple's valuation had expanded a lot in the recent past, and it seems that the company's business growth has to catch up to the recent share price increases now. The current consensus price target is $156, which implies an upside potential of 25%. Since there are no signs of shares leaving their current trading range right now, I personally do not think that Apple will breach $150 in the near term.\nWhere Will Apple Stock Be In 10 Years\nApple's stock price in 2031 is, of course, nothing that can be forecasted with any precision. As history has shown, again and again, it is not even possible to forecast share prices precisely over a much shorter period of time. It is, however, possible to craft scenarios to see where share prices could be in the future under certain conditions, to get a feel for what might be a reasonable expectation for the future.\nTo craft one such scenario, we have to consider Apple's business growth, Apple's shareholder return program, and the valuation multiple that shares might trade at in the future.\nApple's business growth\nApple Inc. has seen years of stronger growth and years of weaker growth in the past. This mostly can be explained by factors such as new product introductions, e.g. Watch or iPad, and by the strength of the respective current iPhone models, which see varying demand depending on the year. Other factors, such as economic growth or trade issues, play a role as well.\nData by YCharts\nOverall, revenues have grown by 154% over the last decade, but as we see in the above chart, revenue growth has been relatively uneven. During the early 2010s, Apple generated massive growth on the back of the iPhones \"road to victory\", whereas revenue growth declined to a much slower pace in the following years. There were even some years during which revenues declined on a year-over-year basis, such as 2016. The average annual revenue growth pace was 10% over the last decade, but when we factor in that this was lifted up by the very strong growth in 2011 and 2012, it may not be too reasonable to assume that Apple will grow by 10% a year in the future, too. Investors should also consider that maintaining a high growth rate becomes ever more difficult the larger a company gets. This does, however, not mean that Apple's revenue growth will slow down to zero.\nOn the back of price increases for its products and the potential for market share gains in high-growth countries such as China, where more and more people will be able to buy Apple's higher-priced products, it seems reasonable to assume that Apple will generate at least some growth from its core businesses. Add in growth in the services segment - people use their phones more and more, which should lead to higher app spending - and consider the potential for new product launches (although I assume none will be as massive as the iPhone), and Apple should be able to grow its business at a solid pace. I personally assume that a 5%-7% revenue growth rate could be a realistic estimate for the coming years, although some readers will of course have different opinions.\nApple's shareholder returns\nApple has lowered its share count massively in the past, as shown above, and it is, I believe, reasonable to assume that the same will happen going forward. Over the last decade, Apple bought back 36% of its shares. If the same were to happen over the next decade, each remaining share's portion of the company's value would rise by 56%, or 4.6% annualized. Due to the fact that Apple's current valuation is significantly higher than its historic valuation, buybacks could be less impactful in the future, though. Apple has, for example, only reduced its share count by 2.6% over the last year.\nThis is why I believe that the share count will not decline by another 36% over the coming decade. When we adjust that downward to 25%, this would result in a ~3% annual tailwind for Apple's growth when we look at per-share metrics, which are the deciding factor for Apple's share price growth. Combined with my 5%-7% business growth estimate, I thus assume that Apple will grow by 8%-10% on a per-share basis in the long term.\nApple's future valuation\nAAPL has been valued in a very wide range in the past, seeing its shares trade for very low multiples at some points, whereas investors were willing to pay significantly more at other times:\nData by YCharts\nShares could, five years ago, be bought for a very low 10x net earnings, which naturally was a great time to enter or expand positions. In late 2020, however, shares were trading for as much as 40x the company's net earnings, which seems like a quite high valuation. Right now, AAPL trades at 28x trailing earnings, and at around 24x forward profits. In the above chart, we also see the median earnings multiples over the last 3, 5, 7, and 10 years. It is pretty clear that Apple's valuation has expanded over the years, which is why the median values are higher for the shorter \"lookback\" periods. I do not believe that AAPL will trade at the 15.5x net earnings that it has traded at, on average, over the last decade, as this seems like a rather low valuation for a quality company like Apple with a strong brand, massive scale, great margins, and a fortress balance sheet. On the other hand, I also don't believe that Apple will trade at a 24-28x earnings multiple forever - for a company that generates solid but unspectacular business growth in the mid-single-digits, that seems quite expensive. This is especially true when we consider that interest rates will likely be higher a decade from now, which should pressure valuations for all equities, all else equal. I thus believe that a valuation of around 20x net earnings could be a reasonable estimate for 2031, which would be more or less in line with the 3-year median earnings multiple.\nIs AAPL A Buy Or Sell Now\nStarting our calculation with an EPS estimate of $5.15 for 2021 and assuming that this will grow by 7%-10% a year through 2031, we reach an EPS range of $10.10 to $13.40. Putting a 20x earnings multiple on that leads to a target price of around $200-$270/share. At the midpoint of around $235, shares would thus see gains of around 90% from the current level, or around 6.5% annualized. That surely is not a bad return, and when we add in the dividend, we would get to an annualized return of roughly 7%. This is, on the other hand, also not an outrageously great return, I believe.\nAAPL has, I believe, significant upside potential over the next decade, but that should not be a large surprise - many companies will see significant growth over a time span this long. I personally am not too excited about a 7% expected long-term return. When we consider that shares do have considerable downside risk in the next 1-3 years if Apple's valuation declines, e.g. due to rising interest rates, it may be a better choice to stay on the sidelines for now. Long-term investors will likely not do badly when they buy shares at current levels, but they will likely also not do great. For now, I'd rate Apple a hold, and a potential buy if its valuation comes closer to the longer-term average. Those that are more optimistic about new product launches may disagree and favor buying here, but it could turn out that waiting for a better opportunity is the best choice here.\nSumming it up, I'd say shares do have significant upside potential over the next decade, but the upside potential is not large enough to make me buy shares at current, elevated, valuations.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2318,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}