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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-06-12
  Bfgghg
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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-06-12
  Hi
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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-06-11
  I want to win money
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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-06-11
  Hdjdjdjdjdjsjsjsjjsjsjs
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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-06-11
  Hi
  How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote>
  Summary Down over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in
  How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote>
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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-06-11
  Great
  Inflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote>
  Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience
  Inflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote>
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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-04-30
  Vcf
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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-04-30
  Wow
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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-04-30
  Nice
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- s3nGzs3nGz
  ·2021-04-30
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17:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180091968","media":"Seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nDown over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Down over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.</li>  <li>Alibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.</li>  <li>The valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.</li> </ul> E-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&amp;P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW股价在过去一年下跌后，并未参与市场的普遍上涨。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一家实力强劲的企业，拥有加速的自由现金流生成和干净的资产负债表。该公司财力雄厚，可以继续发展。</li><li>股票交易估值被压缩，但似乎有望反弹。基本面最终会引导股价。</li></ul>在整个疫情，电子商务一直是一个强有力的投资主题。尽管许多通过互联网销售的股票一直蓬勃发展，但中国企业集团阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（BABA）却明显落后。阿里巴巴-SW的股价在过去一年中一直处于亏损状态，而标普500则大幅上涨，上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.</p><p><blockquote>围绕蚂蚁集团及其创始人马云的IPO失败，阿里巴巴-SW陷入了一些争议。虽然市场关注这些干扰因素，但阿里巴巴-SW的实际基础业务表现却很高。凭借强劲的基本面和快速增长的自由现金流，市场开始关注重要的事情只是时间问题……业务。我们将在下面概述我们的投资论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流增长惊人</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是Seeking Alpha上经常报道的业务，因此我不会重复该业务的基础知识，也不会深入探讨困扰该股的政治争议。相反，我想重点谈谈阿里巴巴-SW最近遇到的金融拐点。</blockquote></p><p> The company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于三月底结束了财年。我们看到的是一个多元化的业务，有几个不断增长的细分市场与宏观经济趋势保持一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862988aec2c33c72dc1786de483f952a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</blockquote></p><p> The largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最大的收入贡献者是公司的零售业务。虽然其商业部门继续实现收入增长（2020年核心商业总收入增长42%，而公司收入增长41%），但一些较小的部门也显示出强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>例如，阿里巴巴-SW的云计算业务在2020年增长了50%，新零售和直销业务同比增长了94%。最有希望的是，阿里巴巴-SW近年来正在加速其自由现金流的增长。该公司2021年自由现金流为263.5亿美元，较2020年同比增长29%。从2019年到2020年，阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流增长了25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9d4b224eedbd99d8d22f0a2092b204\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Holding Group Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW控股集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> With $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&amp;A or other developments.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，阿里巴巴-SW手头现金为720亿美元，该业务产生了超过260亿美元的自由现金流，拥有雄厚的财力来发展其不断增长的业务部门，并寻找机会通过并购或其他发展创造新的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW还能“便宜”多久？</b></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>除非你从自由现金流的角度看待问题，否则很难理解阿里巴巴-SW的股票有多下跌。阿里巴巴-SW目前的自由现金流收益率接近6%。相比之下，FCF收益率第二高的是亚马逊（AMZN），收益率仅为1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3423f615c0dc856b040442e4ff17b78f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: YCharts</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote></p><p> This is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流正在加速增长并且手头拥有大量现金，但这对该公司的同行来说是一个巨大的折扣。由于阿里巴巴-SW是一家健康且不断增长的公司，该股的估值将变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76517c900c76b94c5bd4aaf02ec91a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p> The company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司的收入将继续快速增长，未来三年收入将接近2100亿美元。如果我们将公司24%的收入转化率应用于FCF，那么2024年FCF将达到500亿美元。换句话说，按今天的股价计算，FCF收益率为8.6%。对于一家公司的股票在规模如此之大的情况下增长如此之快，这是你不常见到的。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.</p><p><blockquote>该股显然因阿里巴巴-SW过去一年面临的一些戏剧性事件以及当前中美之间的一些紧张局势而受到惩罚。这是投资者需要牢记的风险，因为任何事情都可能发生，阿里巴巴-SW可能成为政治冲突的附带损害。然而，如果市场清楚地看到前景看好，阿里巴巴-SW可能会大幅重新评级。即使阿里巴巴-SW的FCF收益率跌至3%左右，也意味着股价上涨46%。这将使阿里巴巴-SW的企业价值超过8000亿美元，但我相信该公司肯定可以填补这些空缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是一个奇妙的企业，却陷入了一些政治戏剧。尽管规模很大，但该公司发展迅速，盈利，并产生大量自由现金流。投资者不能忽视政治风险，但对于勇敢和耐心的投资者来说，上行空间是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Much Longer Will Alibaba Stay Cheap?<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW还会保持便宜多久？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 17:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Down over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.</li>  <li>Alibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.</li>  <li>The valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.</li> </ul> E-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&amp;P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW股价在过去一年下跌后，并未参与市场的普遍上涨。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW是一家实力强劲的企业，拥有加速的自由现金流生成和干净的资产负债表。该公司财力雄厚，可以继续发展。</li><li>股票交易估值被压缩，但似乎有望反弹。基本面最终会引导股价。</li></ul>在整个疫情，电子商务一直是一个强有力的投资主题。尽管许多通过互联网销售的股票一直蓬勃发展，但中国企业集团阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（BABA）却明显落后。阿里巴巴-SW的股价在过去一年中一直处于亏损状态，而标普500则大幅上涨，上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.</p><p><blockquote>围绕蚂蚁集团及其创始人马云的IPO失败，阿里巴巴-SW陷入了一些争议。虽然市场关注这些干扰因素，但阿里巴巴-SW的实际基础业务表现却很高。凭借强劲的基本面和快速增长的自由现金流，市场开始关注重要的事情只是时间问题……业务。我们将在下面概述我们的投资论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Free Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>自由现金流增长惊人</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是Seeking Alpha上经常报道的业务，因此我不会重复该业务的基础知识，也不会深入探讨困扰该股的政治争议。相反，我想重点谈谈阿里巴巴-SW最近遇到的金融拐点。</blockquote></p><p> The company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.</p><p><blockquote>该公司于三月底结束了财年。我们看到的是一个多元化的业务，有几个不断增长的细分市场与宏观经济趋势保持一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862988aec2c33c72dc1786de483f952a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Group Holding Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</blockquote></p><p> The largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最大的收入贡献者是公司的零售业务。虽然其商业部门继续实现收入增长（2020年核心商业总收入增长42%，而公司收入增长41%），但一些较小的部门也显示出强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> For example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>例如，阿里巴巴-SW的云计算业务在2020年增长了50%，新零售和直销业务同比增长了94%。最有希望的是，阿里巴巴-SW近年来正在加速其自由现金流的增长。该公司2021年自由现金流为263.5亿美元，较2020年同比增长29%。从2019年到2020年，阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流增长了25%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba9d4b224eedbd99d8d22f0a2092b204\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"98\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Alibaba Holding Group Limited</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：阿里巴巴-SW控股集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> With $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&amp;A or other developments.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月31日，阿里巴巴-SW手头现金为720亿美元，该业务产生了超过260亿美元的自由现金流，拥有雄厚的财力来发展其不断增长的业务部门，并寻找机会通过并购或其他发展创造新的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴-SW还能“便宜”多久？</b></blockquote></p><p> It's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>除非你从自由现金流的角度看待问题，否则很难理解阿里巴巴-SW的股票有多下跌。阿里巴巴-SW目前的自由现金流收益率接近6%。相比之下，FCF收益率第二高的是亚马逊（AMZN），收益率仅为1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3423f615c0dc856b040442e4ff17b78f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: YCharts</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：YCharts</blockquote></p><p> This is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW的自由现金流正在加速增长并且手头拥有大量现金，但这对该公司的同行来说是一个巨大的折扣。由于阿里巴巴-SW是一家健康且不断增长的公司，该股的估值将变得更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d76517c900c76b94c5bd4aaf02ec91a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"226\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">source: Seeking Alpha</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</blockquote></p><p> The company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.</p><p><blockquote>预计该公司的收入将继续快速增长，未来三年收入将接近2100亿美元。如果我们将公司24%的收入转化率应用于FCF，那么2024年FCF将达到500亿美元。换句话说，按今天的股价计算，FCF收益率为8.6%。对于一家公司的股票在规模如此之大的情况下增长如此之快，这是你不常见到的。</blockquote></p><p> The stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.</p><p><blockquote>该股显然因阿里巴巴-SW过去一年面临的一些戏剧性事件以及当前中美之间的一些紧张局势而受到惩罚。这是投资者需要牢记的风险，因为任何事情都可能发生，阿里巴巴-SW可能成为政治冲突的附带损害。然而，如果市场清楚地看到前景看好，阿里巴巴-SW可能会大幅重新评级。即使阿里巴巴-SW的FCF收益率跌至3%左右，也意味着股价上涨46%。这将使阿里巴巴-SW的企业价值超过8000亿美元，但我相信该公司肯定可以填补这些空缺。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>包装</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Alibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW是一个奇妙的企业，却陷入了一些政治戏剧。尽管规模很大，但该公司发展迅速，盈利，并产生大量自由现金流。投资者不能忽视政治风险，但对于勇敢和耐心的投资者来说，上行空间是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434229-how-much-longer-will-alibaba-stay-cheap\">Seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434229-how-much-longer-will-alibaba-stay-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180091968","content_text":"Summary\n\nDown over the past year, shares of Alibaba have not participated with the general rally in the markets.\nAlibaba is a strong business with accelerating free cash flow generation and a clean balance sheet. The company has deep pockets to continue growing.\nThe valuation that shares trade at is compressed, but seems poised to rebound. Fundamentals eventually steer the share price.\n\nE-commerce has been a powerful investing theme throughout the pandemic. While many stocks that sell over the internet have been thriving, Chinese conglomerate Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA) has been a notable laggard. Shares of Alibaba are in the red over the past year, while the S&P 500 has ripped higher, gaining 32%.\nAlibaba has been caught in some controversy surrounding thefailed IPOof Ant Group and its founderJack Ma. While the market has focused on these distractions, the actual underlying business of Alibaba is performing at a high level. With strong fundamentals and rapidly growing free cash flow, it's only a matter of time before the market begins to focus on what matters...the business. We will outline our investment thesis below.\nFree Cash Flow Growth Is Stellar\nAlibaba is a frequently covered business on Seeking Alpha, so I won't rehash the basics about the business or dive into the political controversy that has plagued the stock. Instead, I want to focus on the financial inflection point that Alibaba has recently hit.\nThe company ended its fiscal year at the end of March. What we see is a diversified business with several growing segments that align with macroeconomic trends.\nsource: Alibaba Group Holding Limited\nThe largest revenue contributor, of course, is the company's retail operations. While its commerce segment continues to narrate revenue growth (total core commerce grew 2020 revenues 42% versus company revenues growing 41%), some smaller segments are showing strong growth.\nFor example, Alibaba's cloud computing operations grew 50% in 2020, and its new retail and direct sales businesses grew 94% year-over-year. What is most promising is that Alibaba is accelerating its free cash flow growth in recent years. The company's $26.35 billion in 2021 FCF is a 29% year-over-year jump from 2020. Alibaba grew FCF 25% from 2019 to 2020.\nsource: Alibaba Holding Group Limited\nWith $72 billion in cash on hand as of March 31st and the business generating more than $26 billion in free cash flow, Alibaba has deep pockets to develop its growing business segments and seek out opportunities to create new growth with M&A or other developments.\nHow Long Can Alibaba Stay \"Cheap\"?\nIt's hard to understand just how beaten down Alibaba's stock is until you look at things from a free cash flow perspective. Alibaba is currently trading with an FCF yield approaching 6%. By comparison, the next highest FCF yield is Amazon (AMZN), with a yield of just 1.3%.\nsource: YCharts\nThis is a tremendous discount to Alibaba's peer group, despite the company accelerating FCF growth and having a ton of cash on hand. And because Alibaba is a healthy and growing company, the stock is poised to become even more attractively valued.\nsource: Seeking Alpha\nThe company is estimated to continue growing revenues at a swift clip, approaching $210 billion in annual revenue over the next three years. If we apply the company's 24% conversion rate of revenue to FCF, that will give us 2024 FCF of $50 billion. In other words, an FCF yield of 8.6% on today's share price. This is simply something you don't often see for a company's stock growing so rapidly at such an already large size.\nThe stock is clearly being punished for some of the drama that Alibaba has faced over the past year and some of the current tension between the United States and China. This is a risk that investors need to keep in mind, as anything can happen, and Alibaba may become collateral damage of political conflict. However, if it becomes clear to the market that the outlook is promising, Alibaba could aggressively rerate. Even if Alibaba saw its FCF yield fall to around 3%, it would imply an upside in shares of 46%. This would put Alibaba at an enterprise value of more than $800 billion, but I believe those shoes the company could certainly fill.\nWrapping Up\nAlibaba is a fantastic business that has been caught up in some political drama. Despite its size, the company is growing rapidly, is profitable, and generates tons of free cash flow. Investors cannot ignore the political risks, but the upside is tremendous for brave and patient investors.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181497789,"gmtCreate":1623405672941,"gmtModify":1634033680478,"author":{"id":"3571036752907389","authorId":"3571036752907389","name":"s3nGz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c929cbe961a8fd811e48f9d875c5796c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571036752907389","idStr":"3571036752907389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181497789","repostId":"1114956060","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114956060","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623403683,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114956060?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-11 17:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114956060","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience","content":"<p>  Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience.  WASHINGTON—The recent inflation surge gives Federal Reserve officials further reason to begin discussing an eventual wind-down of their pandemic-driven easy-money policies at their meeting next week.</p><p><blockquote>随着物价飙升考验耐心，央行行长们将开始讨论放松债券购买。华盛顿——最近的通胀飙升让美联储官员有更多理由在下周的会议上开始讨论最终结束由大流行驱动的宽松货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> A growing number of economists are becoming concerned that the Fed could fall behind the curve on inflation as it seeks to aid the labor market’s recovery. If that happened, the central bank would have to tighten policy more abruptly than economists and market participants currently anticipate, dealing a potential blow to the economy and fueling market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>越来越多的经济学家开始担心，美联储在寻求帮助劳动力市场复苏时可能会落后于通胀曲线。如果发生这种情况，央行将不得不比经济学家和市场参与者目前预期的更突然地收紧政策，这可能会对经济造成打击，并加剧市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> “The intensity of the current inflation and the current bottlenecks in supply chains and labor markets is greater than I had anticipated,” said former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, adding that he still shares the central bank’s belief that the inflation pickup is temporary. “But it also could be that the underlying demand-supply balance will not correct as readily or as comfortably as the Fed and I had expected earlier. It’s got my inflation antenna quivering.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储前副主席唐纳德·科恩表示：“当前通胀的强度以及当前供应链和劳动力市场的瓶颈比我预期的要大。”他补充说，他仍然同意央行的观点，即通胀回升是暂时的。“但也有可能潜在的供需平衡不会像美联储和我之前预期的那样容易或轻松地纠正。这让我的通胀天线颤抖。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49af371440294f4e99311c66545c2930\" tg-width=\"333\" tg-height=\"417\">The first step in what is expected to be a gradual process of scaling back easy money would be to slow Fed purchases of mortgage and government bonds, something Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he’s not in a hurry to do.</p><p><blockquote>预计逐步缩减宽松货币政策的第一步将是减缓美联储购买抵押贷款和政府债券的速度，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，他并不急于这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Consumerprices rose 5% in Mayfrom a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, rose 3.8%, the largest annual jump since 1992. That followed strong price increases in April as well. The Fed seeks 2% inflation over the medium term, though it uses a different index as a gauge.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四表示，5月份消费者价格同比上涨5%。所谓的核心价格（不包括波动较大的食品和能源成分）上涨了3.8%，为1992年以来的最大年度涨幅。此前，四月份价格也出现了强劲上涨。美联储寻求中期通胀率达到2%，尽管它使用不同的指数作为衡量标准。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers note that the recent increase in inflation has been powered by an unusual combination of supply bottlenecks and pent-up demand from consumers emerging from their homes—pressures that should ease on their own later this year.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们指出，近期通胀上升是由供应瓶颈和消费者从家中出现的被压抑需求的不同寻常的组合推动的——这种压力应该会在今年晚些时候自行缓解。</blockquote></p><p> But Thursday’s data raise the stakes for the Fed as it begins to weigh pulling back on stimulative policies rolled out early in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>但周四的数据增加了美联储的风险，因为美联储开始权衡撤回疫情初期推出的刺激政策。</blockquote></p><p> Since last year, the Fed has held its key overnight interest rate near zero and has been buying at least $120 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds. Its goal is to fuel the economy’s recovery by providing cheap credit.</p><p><blockquote>自去年以来，美联储一直将关键隔夜利率维持在接近零的水平，并每月购买至少1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款债券。其目标是通过提供廉价信贷来推动经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Economists say the easy money is likely exacerbating some of the imbalances that are pushing up prices, since it fuels demand without directly boosting the supply of workers, cars or airplane tickets. A key risk is that price increases become large or persistent enough that consumers and businesses begin to expect and accept higher inflation. If that happens, the Fed would likely have to raise interest rates more than it currently anticipates to bring down those expectations.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，宽松货币政策可能会加剧一些推高物价的失衡，因为它刺激了需求，但没有直接增加工人、汽车或机票的供应。一个关键的风险是，价格上涨变得足够大或持续，以至于消费者和企业开始预期并接受更高的通胀。如果发生这种情况，美联储可能不得不加息超过目前预期的幅度才能降低这些预期。</blockquote></p><p> For decades, the Fed relied on forecasts of inflation to guide its monetary policy, knowing that interest-rate increases or cuts can take months or years to filter through the economy. If the forecasts showed excessive inflation looming, the Fed tightened policy to prevent inflation from rising that much.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，美联储一直依靠通胀预测来指导其货币政策，因为它知道加息或降息可能需要数月或数年的时间才能渗透到经济中。如果预测显示过度通胀迫在眉睫，美联储就会收紧政策以防止通胀上升那么多。</blockquote></p><p> But last August, after more than a decade of below-target inflation, the Fed scrapped that strategy for one that prioritizes a strong labor market. Under the new strategy, if the economy is below full employment, the Fed will wait until it sees evidence of persistently above-target inflation before tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote>但去年8月，在经历了十多年低于目标的通胀后，美联储放弃了这一战略，转而优先考虑强劲的劳动力市场。在新策略下，如果经济低于充分就业，美联储将等到看到通胀持续高于目标的证据后再收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have said since December that they won’t raise interest rates until the labor market has returned to maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to rise moderately higher for some time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员自去年12月以来一直表示，在劳动力市场恢复到最大就业水平、通胀率升至2%并有望在一段时间内温和走高之前，他们不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> They haven’t said how high they would be comfortable letting inflation go or for how long, but the sheer size of the recent price increases suggests it is on track to meet or exceed the Fed’s target sooner than was expected just a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>他们没有说他们愿意让通胀上升到多高或持续多长时间，但最近物价上涨的规模表明，美联储有望比几个月前的预期更快地达到或超过美联储的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers have warned in recent remarks that they would act sooner if inflation becomes a problem.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们在最近的讲话中警告说，如果通胀成为一个问题，他们将更快采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> Julia Coronado, a former Fed economist and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, said she doesn’t think recent inflation data call for the Fed to change course.</p><p><blockquote>前美联储经济学家、MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC总裁Julia Coronado表示，她不认为最近的通胀数据是美联储改变路线的看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> “These price pressures are very narrowly focused on things that seem like they will be obviously transitory,” Ms. Coronado said. “Think about this: We are at the most intense moment. It will not get more intense than this. We are reopening. We are blasting stimulus into the economy with a fire hose. We’ve got monetary policy at maximum stimulation.”</p><p><blockquote>科罗纳多女士说：“这些价格压力非常狭隘地集中在那些似乎显然是暂时的事情上。”“想想看：我们正处于最激烈的时刻。不会比这更激烈了。我们正在重新开放。我们正在用消防水管向经济注入刺激措施。我们已经采取了最大程度的刺激货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p> Mark Carney, a veteran central banker who led the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020 and the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, said he sees growing evidence that the tightness in the U.S. labor market and related price pressures could extend beyond the short term.</p><p><blockquote>曾在2013年至2020年领导英国央行和2008年至2013年领导加拿大央行的资深央行行长马克·卡尼表示，他看到越来越多的证据表明，美国劳动力市场的紧张和相关的价格压力可能会超出短期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “The prospect of inflation being above target for longer than the makeup of the past undershoot—I think the balance of risks is headed in that direction at this stage,” Mr. Carney said in a Brookings Institution event Monday.</p><p><blockquote>卡尼周一在布鲁金斯学会的一次活动中表示：“通胀高于目标的时间比过去低于目标的时间还要长——我认为现阶段风险平衡正在朝着这个方向发展。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Rate Climb Adds Impetus to Fed Policy Shift<blockquote>通胀率攀升为美联储政策转向增添动力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-11 17:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience.  WASHINGTON—The recent inflation surge gives Federal Reserve officials further reason to begin discussing an eventual wind-down of their pandemic-driven easy-money policies at their meeting next week.</p><p><blockquote>随着物价飙升考验耐心，央行行长们将开始讨论放松债券购买。华盛顿——最近的通胀飙升让美联储官员有更多理由在下周的会议上开始讨论最终结束由大流行驱动的宽松货币政策。</blockquote></p><p> A growing number of economists are becoming concerned that the Fed could fall behind the curve on inflation as it seeks to aid the labor market’s recovery. If that happened, the central bank would have to tighten policy more abruptly than economists and market participants currently anticipate, dealing a potential blow to the economy and fueling market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>越来越多的经济学家开始担心，美联储在寻求帮助劳动力市场复苏时可能会落后于通胀曲线。如果发生这种情况，央行将不得不比经济学家和市场参与者目前预期的更突然地收紧政策，这可能会对经济造成打击，并加剧市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> “The intensity of the current inflation and the current bottlenecks in supply chains and labor markets is greater than I had anticipated,” said former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, adding that he still shares the central bank’s belief that the inflation pickup is temporary. “But it also could be that the underlying demand-supply balance will not correct as readily or as comfortably as the Fed and I had expected earlier. It’s got my inflation antenna quivering.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储前副主席唐纳德·科恩表示：“当前通胀的强度以及当前供应链和劳动力市场的瓶颈比我预期的要大。”他补充说，他仍然同意央行的观点，即通胀回升是暂时的。“但也有可能潜在的供需平衡不会像美联储和我之前预期的那样容易或轻松地纠正。这让我的通胀天线颤抖。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49af371440294f4e99311c66545c2930\" tg-width=\"333\" tg-height=\"417\">The first step in what is expected to be a gradual process of scaling back easy money would be to slow Fed purchases of mortgage and government bonds, something Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he’s not in a hurry to do.</p><p><blockquote>预计逐步缩减宽松货币政策的第一步将是减缓美联储购买抵押贷款和政府债券的速度，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，他并不急于这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Consumerprices rose 5% in Mayfrom a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, rose 3.8%, the largest annual jump since 1992. That followed strong price increases in April as well. The Fed seeks 2% inflation over the medium term, though it uses a different index as a gauge.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四表示，5月份消费者价格同比上涨5%。所谓的核心价格（不包括波动较大的食品和能源成分）上涨了3.8%，为1992年以来的最大年度涨幅。此前，四月份价格也出现了强劲上涨。美联储寻求中期通胀率达到2%，尽管它使用不同的指数作为衡量标准。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers note that the recent increase in inflation has been powered by an unusual combination of supply bottlenecks and pent-up demand from consumers emerging from their homes—pressures that should ease on their own later this year.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们指出，近期通胀上升是由供应瓶颈和消费者从家中出现的被压抑需求的不同寻常的组合推动的——这种压力应该会在今年晚些时候自行缓解。</blockquote></p><p> But Thursday’s data raise the stakes for the Fed as it begins to weigh pulling back on stimulative policies rolled out early in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>但周四的数据增加了美联储的风险，因为美联储开始权衡撤回疫情初期推出的刺激政策。</blockquote></p><p> Since last year, the Fed has held its key overnight interest rate near zero and has been buying at least $120 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds. Its goal is to fuel the economy’s recovery by providing cheap credit.</p><p><blockquote>自去年以来，美联储一直将关键隔夜利率维持在接近零的水平，并每月购买至少1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款债券。其目标是通过提供廉价信贷来推动经济复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Economists say the easy money is likely exacerbating some of the imbalances that are pushing up prices, since it fuels demand without directly boosting the supply of workers, cars or airplane tickets. A key risk is that price increases become large or persistent enough that consumers and businesses begin to expect and accept higher inflation. If that happens, the Fed would likely have to raise interest rates more than it currently anticipates to bring down those expectations.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，宽松货币政策可能会加剧一些推高物价的失衡，因为它刺激了需求，但没有直接增加工人、汽车或机票的供应。一个关键的风险是，价格上涨变得足够大或持续，以至于消费者和企业开始预期并接受更高的通胀。如果发生这种情况，美联储可能不得不加息超过目前预期的幅度才能降低这些预期。</blockquote></p><p> For decades, the Fed relied on forecasts of inflation to guide its monetary policy, knowing that interest-rate increases or cuts can take months or years to filter through the economy. If the forecasts showed excessive inflation looming, the Fed tightened policy to prevent inflation from rising that much.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，美联储一直依靠通胀预测来指导其货币政策，因为它知道加息或降息可能需要数月或数年的时间才能渗透到经济中。如果预测显示过度通胀迫在眉睫，美联储就会收紧政策以防止通胀上升那么多。</blockquote></p><p> But last August, after more than a decade of below-target inflation, the Fed scrapped that strategy for one that prioritizes a strong labor market. Under the new strategy, if the economy is below full employment, the Fed will wait until it sees evidence of persistently above-target inflation before tightening policy.</p><p><blockquote>但去年8月，在经历了十多年低于目标的通胀后，美联储放弃了这一战略，转而优先考虑强劲的劳动力市场。在新策略下，如果经济低于充分就业，美联储将等到看到通胀持续高于目标的证据后再收紧政策。</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have said since December that they won’t raise interest rates until the labor market has returned to maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to rise moderately higher for some time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员自去年12月以来一直表示，在劳动力市场恢复到最大就业水平、通胀率升至2%并有望在一段时间内温和走高之前，他们不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> They haven’t said how high they would be comfortable letting inflation go or for how long, but the sheer size of the recent price increases suggests it is on track to meet or exceed the Fed’s target sooner than was expected just a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>他们没有说他们愿意让通胀上升到多高或持续多长时间，但最近物价上涨的规模表明，美联储有望比几个月前的预期更快地达到或超过美联储的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Central bankers have warned in recent remarks that they would act sooner if inflation becomes a problem.</p><p><blockquote>央行行长们在最近的讲话中警告说，如果通胀成为一个问题，他们将更快采取行动。</blockquote></p><p> Julia Coronado, a former Fed economist and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, said she doesn’t think recent inflation data call for the Fed to change course.</p><p><blockquote>前美联储经济学家、MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC总裁Julia Coronado表示，她不认为最近的通胀数据是美联储改变路线的看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> “These price pressures are very narrowly focused on things that seem like they will be obviously transitory,” Ms. Coronado said. “Think about this: We are at the most intense moment. It will not get more intense than this. We are reopening. We are blasting stimulus into the economy with a fire hose. We’ve got monetary policy at maximum stimulation.”</p><p><blockquote>科罗纳多女士说：“这些价格压力非常狭隘地集中在那些似乎显然是暂时的事情上。”“想想看：我们正处于最激烈的时刻。不会比这更激烈了。我们正在重新开放。我们正在用消防水管向经济注入刺激措施。我们已经采取了最大程度的刺激货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p> Mark Carney, a veteran central banker who led the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020 and the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, said he sees growing evidence that the tightness in the U.S. labor market and related price pressures could extend beyond the short term.</p><p><blockquote>曾在2013年至2020年领导英国央行和2008年至2013年领导加拿大央行的资深央行行长马克·卡尼表示，他看到越来越多的证据表明，美国劳动力市场的紧张和相关的价格压力可能会超出短期。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “The prospect of inflation being above target for longer than the makeup of the past undershoot—I think the balance of risks is headed in that direction at this stage,” Mr. Carney said in a Brookings Institution event Monday.</p><p><blockquote>卡尼周一在布鲁金斯学会的一次活动中表示：“通胀高于目标的时间比过去低于目标的时间还要长——我认为现阶段风险平衡正在朝着这个方向发展。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-rate-climb-adds-impetus-to-fed-policy-shift-11623341429?mod=markets_lead_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-rate-climb-adds-impetus-to-fed-policy-shift-11623341429?mod=markets_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114956060","content_text":"Central bankers are set to begin talking about easing bond purchases as soaring prices test patience.\n\nWASHINGTON—The recent inflation surge gives Federal Reserve officials further reason to begin discussing an eventual wind-down of their pandemic-driven easy-money policies at their meeting next week.\nA growing number of economists are becoming concerned that the Fed could fall behind the curve on inflation as it seeks to aid the labor market’s recovery. If that happened, the central bank would have to tighten policy more abruptly than economists and market participants currently anticipate, dealing a potential blow to the economy and fueling market volatility.\n“The intensity of the current inflation and the current bottlenecks in supply chains and labor markets is greater than I had anticipated,” said former Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, adding that he still shares the central bank’s belief that the inflation pickup is temporary. “But it also could be that the underlying demand-supply balance will not correct as readily or as comfortably as the Fed and I had expected earlier. It’s got my inflation antenna quivering.”\nThe first step in what is expected to be a gradual process of scaling back easy money would be to slow Fed purchases of mortgage and government bonds, something Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has said he’s not in a hurry to do.\nConsumerprices rose 5% in Mayfrom a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. So-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy components, rose 3.8%, the largest annual jump since 1992. That followed strong price increases in April as well. The Fed seeks 2% inflation over the medium term, though it uses a different index as a gauge.\nCentral bankers note that the recent increase in inflation has been powered by an unusual combination of supply bottlenecks and pent-up demand from consumers emerging from their homes—pressures that should ease on their own later this year.\nBut Thursday’s data raise the stakes for the Fed as it begins to weigh pulling back on stimulative policies rolled out early in the pandemic.\nSince last year, the Fed has held its key overnight interest rate near zero and has been buying at least $120 billion a month of Treasury and mortgage bonds. Its goal is to fuel the economy’s recovery by providing cheap credit.\nEconomists say the easy money is likely exacerbating some of the imbalances that are pushing up prices, since it fuels demand without directly boosting the supply of workers, cars or airplane tickets. A key risk is that price increases become large or persistent enough that consumers and businesses begin to expect and accept higher inflation. If that happens, the Fed would likely have to raise interest rates more than it currently anticipates to bring down those expectations.\nFor decades, the Fed relied on forecasts of inflation to guide its monetary policy, knowing that interest-rate increases or cuts can take months or years to filter through the economy. If the forecasts showed excessive inflation looming, the Fed tightened policy to prevent inflation from rising that much.\nBut last August, after more than a decade of below-target inflation, the Fed scrapped that strategy for one that prioritizes a strong labor market. Under the new strategy, if the economy is below full employment, the Fed will wait until it sees evidence of persistently above-target inflation before tightening policy.\nFed officials have said since December that they won’t raise interest rates until the labor market has returned to maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to rise moderately higher for some time.\nThey haven’t said how high they would be comfortable letting inflation go or for how long, but the sheer size of the recent price increases suggests it is on track to meet or exceed the Fed’s target sooner than was expected just a few months ago.\nCentral bankers have warned in recent remarks that they would act sooner if inflation becomes a problem.\nJulia Coronado, a former Fed economist and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC, said she doesn’t think recent inflation data call for the Fed to change course.\n“These price pressures are very narrowly focused on things that seem like they will be obviously transitory,” Ms. Coronado said. “Think about this: We are at the most intense moment. It will not get more intense than this. We are reopening. We are blasting stimulus into the economy with a fire hose. We’ve got monetary policy at maximum stimulation.”\nMark Carney, a veteran central banker who led the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020 and the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, said he sees growing evidence that the tightness in the U.S. labor market and related price pressures could extend beyond the short term.\n“The prospect of inflation being above target for longer than the makeup of the past undershoot—I think the balance of risks is headed in that direction at this stage,” Mr. Carney said in a Brookings Institution event Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103916633,"gmtCreate":1619742715622,"gmtModify":1634210288708,"author":{"id":"3571036752907389","authorId":"3571036752907389","name":"s3nGz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c929cbe961a8fd811e48f9d875c5796c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571036752907389","idStr":"3571036752907389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Vcf","listText":"&nbsp;Vcf","text":"Vcf","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103916633","repostId":"2131534297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103916061,"gmtCreate":1619742691453,"gmtModify":1634210289068,"author":{"id":"3571036752907389","authorId":"3571036752907389","name":"s3nGz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c929cbe961a8fd811e48f9d875c5796c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571036752907389","idStr":"3571036752907389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103916061","repostId":"1153490597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103918632,"gmtCreate":1619742677026,"gmtModify":1634210289308,"author":{"id":"3571036752907389","authorId":"3571036752907389","name":"s3nGz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c929cbe961a8fd811e48f9d875c5796c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571036752907389","idStr":"3571036752907389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103918632","repostId":"2131402534","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103911548,"gmtCreate":1619742650984,"gmtModify":1634210290149,"author":{"id":"3571036752907389","authorId":"3571036752907389","name":"s3nGz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c929cbe961a8fd811e48f9d875c5796c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571036752907389","idStr":"3571036752907389"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dfgggff","listText":"Dfgggff","text":"Dfgggff","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103911548","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}