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MrMrsBean
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2021-09-10
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2021-09-10
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2021-09-10
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MrMrsBean
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2021-09-07
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Jerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote>
When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no d
Jerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote>
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MrMrsBean
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2021-09-07
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Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于2021年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>
Commodities Tie the Year Together 2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline i
Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于2021年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>
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MrMrsBean
MrMrsBean
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2021-09-07
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GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>
U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then feat
GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>
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MrMrsBean
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2021-09-07
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Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么2021年是消除9月股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>
Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like
Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么2021年是消除9月股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>
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Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817207352","repostId":"1138372877","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138372877","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138372877?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138372877","media":"zerohedge","summary":"When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no d","content":"<p>When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no different with Jerome Powell’s virtual address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What they got is what Harry Truman complained about when hearing from his economic advisors:<i><b>“On the one hand, ‘this,’ but on the other hand, ‘that’.”</b></i>Truman said that he desperately wanted a one-handed economist.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席发表讲话时，金融市场都会倾听，这与杰罗姆·鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行行长年会上的虚拟讲话没有什么不同。他们得到的是哈里·杜鲁门在听取他的经济顾问的意见时所抱怨的：<i><b>“一方面是‘这个’，另一方面是‘那个’。”</b></i>杜鲁门说，他非常想要一个单手经济学家。</blockquote></p><p> After a decade of general economic calm most of the time, with modest to reasonable growth, relatively low price inflation, and, at the beginning of 2020 before the Coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment at its lowest level in half a century,<b>everyone is now worried about what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary and interest rate policy in the months and years ahead in the face of all that has been happening for the last year and a half.</b></p><p><blockquote>在经历了十年大部分时间经济总体平静、适度至合理的增长、相对较低的物价通胀，以及在2020年初冠状病毒封锁之前，失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低水平，<b>面对过去一年半发生的一切，每个人现在都在担心美联储在未来几个月和几年的货币和利率政策方面会发生什么。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Whipsaw GDP and Huge Government Expenditures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大幅增长的GDP和巨额政府支出</b></blockquote></p><p> After a staggering decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $19.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $17.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, or a 9 percent decrease of real GDP in a matter of a few months, the latest revised estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the second quarter of 2021 is that real GDP reached $19.36 trillion. This was a 12.5 percent increase over its 2020 low, and a level now above its pre-Coronavirus high.</p><p><blockquote>在实际国内生产总值（GDP）从2019年第四季度的19.2万亿美元惊人下降到2020年第二季度的17.2万亿美元，即实际GDP在几个月内下降了9%之后，经济分析局（BEA）对2021年第二季度的最新修订估计为实际GDP达到19.36万亿美元。这比2020年的低点增长了12.5%，目前高于冠状病毒爆发前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is worth keeping in mind, however, that all of these numbers are exaggerated in terms of real private sector vibrancy because in 2019, federal government expenditures came to $4.45 trillion, or 23 percent of that $19.2 trillion GDP total.</b>By the end of 2020, due to the relaxing of the federal and state lockdown and shutdown mandates over much of the U.S. economy in the second half of last year, real GDP had recovered to $18.76 trillion, but federal government expenditures came to $6.6 trillion, or 35 percent of that total GDP. And just in the first half of 2021, out of that $19.36 trillion GDP, federal spending has already been $5.86 trillion of that total, or 30.2 percent.</p><p><blockquote><b>然而，值得记住的是，就私营部门的实际活力而言，所有这些数字都被夸大了，因为2019年，联邦政府支出达到4.45万亿美元，占19.2万亿美元GDP总额的23%。</b>到2020年底，由于去年下半年联邦和州对美国经济大部分地区的封锁和关闭命令放松，实际GDP已恢复至18.76万亿美元，但联邦政府支出达到6.6万亿美元，占GDP总量的35%。就在2021年上半年，在19.36万亿美元的GDP中，联邦支出已经占了5.86万亿美元，占30.2%。</blockquote></p><p> If government spending is even partly discounted from GDP as a false indicator of the economic “health” of the U.S., since Uncle Sam has nothing to spend other than what it either first taxes away from the private sector or has borrowed from the financial markets, the private economy is far from doing as well as the GDP numbers suggest.</p><p><blockquote>如果政府支出甚至部分从GDP中扣除，作为美国经济“健康”的错误指标，因为山姆大叔除了首先从私营部门征税或从金融市场借款之外没有什么可花的，私营经济远没有GDP数据显示的那么好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lagging Unemployment and Rising Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>滞后的失业和不断上升的物价通胀</b></blockquote></p><p> After unemployment had reached a low of 3.5 percent of the labor force at the start of 2020, it rose to almost 15 percent in April of last year, due to the government-commanded halt of a huge amount of economic activity. In July 2021, unemployment had declined to 5.4 percent of the labor force; but this still left it almost 55 percent above its low at the beginning of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年初达到劳动力3.5%的低点后，由于政府下令停止大量经济活动，失业率在去年4月升至近15%。2021年7月，失业率已降至劳动力的5.4%；但这仍使其比2020年初的低点高出近55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>After the Consumer Price Index (CPI) mostly fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of between one and two percent, annually, over the last ten years, 2021 has seen the CPI increase to 5.4 percent in July of this year. Certain subgroups, such as energy and used car automotive sectors increased in double digit ranges on an annualized basis.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在过去十年中，消费者价格指数（CPI）每年大多在1%至2%的相对狭窄范围内波动后，2021年CPI在今年7月上涨至5.4%。某些子组，例如能源和二手车汽车行业，年化增长幅度达到两位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> With unemployment still considered high, with the CPI increasing noticeably above the decade-long annual average, and question marks concerning how GDP will grow for the remainder of this year, given continuing supply-chain disruptions and uncertainties about the impact of variations and new mutations of the Coronavirus, all eyes and ears turned to Jerome Powell’s pronouncements about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy.</p><p><blockquote>由于失业率仍然很高，CPI涨幅明显高于十年来的年平均水平，鉴于供应链持续中断以及变异和新变异影响的不确定性，今年剩余时间GDP将如何增长也存在问号冠状病毒，所有的眼睛和耳朵都转向了杰罗姆·鲍威尔关于美联储货币和利率政策未来方向的声明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Maybe This, Maybe That, Policy Pronouncement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的政策声明也许是这个，也许是那个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>And what he said was that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has not decided what to do!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>而他说的是，美联储理事会还没有决定该怎么做！</b></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the economy is improving so, perhaps, before the end of the year, the Fed will reduce its current monthly purchase of $120 billion worth of assets – $80 billion of U.S. government securities, and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. And it may decide that it is time to no longer use its policy tools to keep key interest rates close to zero.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，经济正在改善，因此，也许在今年年底之前，美联储将减少目前每月购买价值1200亿美元的资产——800亿美元的美国政府证券和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。它可能会决定，是时候不再使用其政策工具将关键利率保持在接近零的水平了。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, recent price inflation may only be a transitory spurt due to supply-side problems, so the concern about accelerating price increases may be misplaced. Therefore, it may be premature to reduce asset purchases too quickly and certainly it is necessary to be cautious in any nudging up of interest rates that might cut short the national economic recovery before unemployment has been reduced, once again, to a level closer to standard benchmarks of “full employment.”</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，近期的价格通胀可能只是供给侧问题造成的短暂井喷，因此对价格加速上涨的担忧可能是错位的。因此，过快减少资产购买可能还为时过早，当然，在失业率再次降至更接近“充分就业”标准基准的水平之前，任何可能缩短国民经济复苏的加息都需要谨慎。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the one hand, the worst of the Coronavirus may have passed, so there may be no new shutdown hurdles in the way of continuing improvement as reflected in the usual macroeconomic measurements. On the other hand, virus variants may prevent a smooth path to a fully restored and growing economy. So, it may be too soon to really specify when and by how much asset purchases will be reduced or by how much those interest rates will be raised from their current near zero levels.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，冠状病毒最糟糕的时期可能已经过去，因此在持续改善的道路上可能不会出现新的停工障碍，正如通常的宏观经济指标所反映的那样。另一方面，病毒变种可能会阻碍通往全面恢复和增长的经济的顺利道路。因此，现在真正确定何时减少资产购买以及减少多少，或者这些利率将从目前接近零的水平上调多少，可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed Chairman also said that, on the one hand, the Fed leadership has plenty of experience and policy tools to keep the economy on a sound and even path. On the other hand, such things as the impact of the Coronavirus and the threats facing the world from global warming are unique, making charting the Fed policy course a distinct challenge.</p><p><blockquote>这位美联储主席还表示，一方面，美联储领导层拥有丰富的经验和政策工具，可以让经济保持在稳健、平稳的道路上。另一方面，冠状病毒的影响和全球变暖对世界的威胁是独特的，这使得制定美联储的政策路线成为一个明显的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Reticence and the Political Business Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的沉默与政治商业周期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>In other words, Jerome Powell evaded any straightforward policy program, and therefore offered something for almost everyone, in terms of easing fears and concerns that either the policy foot will stay too long where it is on the accelerator or will start putting on the brakes too quickly.</b>Either he is being reticent due to honest doubts about what he thinks is ahead for the economy, or he knows how to play to the audience in the White House and in Congress who will decide whether or not he is appointed for a second term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. After all, you don’t want to seem to be planning any clear policy moves that might threaten the reelection of Senators or Congressmen in the 2022 elections, or antagonize a president who does not want to lose his thin majority in the national legislature.</p><p><blockquote><b>换句话说，杰罗姆·鲍威尔回避了任何直截了当的政策计划，因此为几乎所有人提供了一些东西，缓解了人们的恐惧和担忧，即政策要么会在油门上停留太久，要么会开始踩刹车太快。</b>要么他是因为对他认为的经济前景的诚实怀疑而保持沉默，要么他知道如何迎合白宫和国会的观众，他们将决定他是否被任命为美联储系统理事会主席的第二个任期。毕竟，你不想看起来正在计划任何可能威胁参议员或众议员在2022年选举中连任的明确政策举措，或者激怒一位不想失去在国家立法机构中微弱多数的总统。</blockquote></p><p> That politicians and central bankers are sensitive to the phases of the business cycle as they may impact the political electoral cycle in thinking about their policy decisions and directions has been understood by some economists at least since Johan Akerman’s (1896-1982) analysis of the “Political Economic Cycle” (<i>Kyklos</i>, May 1947), in which he traced out observed changes in those running governments in democratic societies resulting from the phases in the business cycle, and how those in government attempt to manage public policy to maintain their political positions.</p><p><blockquote>至少自约翰·阿克曼（Johan Akerman，1896-1982）对“政治经济周期”（<i>基克洛斯</i>在这篇文章中，他追溯了在民主社会中由商业周期的各个阶段引起的政府管理者的变化，以及政府中的那些人如何试图管理公共政策以维持他们的政治地位。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, Akerman said, looking over the period from the mid-19th century to 1945 in countries like Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Sweden, the result of the analysis could be summarized in the following way: “All general economic depressions in England . . . lead to cabinet crises and a change of the party in power . . . In the United States the presidential elections as a rule involve a change in party control when votes are cast during a depression and a maintenance of the party in office when the votes are cast during periods of prosperity,” in sixteen of the twenty elections between 1865 and 1945.</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼说，从历史上看，纵观19世纪中期至1945年期间的英国、美国、德国和瑞典等国家，分析结果可以总结如下：“英国所有普遍的经济萧条……都会导致内阁危机和执政党的更迭……在美国，总统选举通常涉及在萧条时期投票时改变政党控制，在繁荣时期投票时维持政党执政”，在1865年至1945年的20次选举中有16次。</blockquote></p><p> Governments, Akerman also pointed out, try “to stabilize financial and economic conditions, and for a brief period may succeed in doing so.” While not pursuing it in his article, the fact is that the underlying circumstances that create “booms” that result in “busts” are usually of the government’s own policy. making. The “good times” monetary and fiscal policies finally create the economic crises that threaten the political policy-makers’ positions in authority. Hence, a government’s frequent demise in the next election when a recession or depression finally occurs. (p. 107)</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼还指出，各国政府试图“稳定金融和经济状况，在短时间内可能会成功。”虽然他的文章没有追究这一点，但事实是，造成“繁荣”导致“萧条”的潜在环境通常是政府自己的政策。制作。“好时代”的货币和财政政策最终造成了经济危机，威胁到政治决策者的权威地位。因此，当经济衰退或萧条最终发生时，政府往往会在下一次选举中垮台。（第107页）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Interest Rates Should Coordinate Savings and Investment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利率应协调储蓄和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> But this gets to the real essence of the dilemma in Jerome Powell’s statement of Federal Reserve policy and its possible future direction. The underlying presumption is that a central bank can and should be attempting to manage the monetary system and the level of interest rates in the financial markets and, therefore, trying to macro-manage the society as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>但这触及了杰罗姆·鲍威尔美联储政策声明中困境的真正本质及其未来可能的方向。潜在的假设是，中央银行可以也应该试图管理货币体系和金融市场的利率水平，因此，试图对整个社会进行宏观管理。</blockquote></p><p> Let us start with interest rates. The role of market prices is to bring into coordinated balance the two sides of demand and supply. Prices do so by effectively informing those needing to know on the supply side what is it that demanders want and the value they place upon it in terms of what they are willing to pay to get it; prices, at the same time, inform demanders what suppliers can and are willing to produce and offer for sale, and at what price reflecting the producer’s opportunity costs of bringing a particular good or service to market. The competitive interaction of those two sides of the market brings about the balance between them.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从利率开始。市场价格的作用是使供求双方达到协调平衡。价格通过有效地告知那些在供应方需要知道需求者想要什么以及他们愿意支付什么来获得它的价值来做到这一点；与此同时，价格告诉需求者供应商能够并且愿意生产和出售什么，以及以什么价格反映了生产者将特定商品或服务推向市场的机会成本。市场双方的竞争互动带来了它们之间的平衡。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The role of interest rates is to do the same for borrowers and lenders. It is the trading of the use of resources across time between those who are interested and willing to defer the more immediate use of resources (expressed in money) in their possession or under their control, in return for a premium in the future from those interested in more immediate uses of those resources beyond their own capacity in exchange for paying such a premium in the future. That premium is the rate of interest, which may vary with the duration of the loan and risk elements in extending it.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是为借款人和贷款人做同样的事情。它是那些有兴趣并愿意推迟更直接地使用其拥有或控制的资源（以货币表示）的人之间对资源使用的交易，以换取那些有兴趣更直接地使用超出其自身能力的资源的人在未来支付这种溢价。该溢价就是利率，它可能会随着贷款期限和延长贷款的风险因素而变化。</blockquote></p><p> The role of the rate of interest is to coordinate the willingness of savers with the desires of borrowers. Any rate of interest above or below this results in, respectively, an excess of savings over investment demand or an excess of investment demand over available savings.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是协调储户的意愿和借款人的意愿。高于或低于这一利率的任何利率分别导致储蓄超过投资需求或投资需求超过可用储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manipulating Interests Rates Distorts Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>操纵利率扭曲市场</b></blockquote></p><p> The crucial difference between a price, say, for hats that is set below the market-clearing, or coordinating, level is that a shortage results with some willing buyers leaving the market empty-handed; but when the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, wishes to manipulate interest rates below the market coordinating level, it fills the gap with newly created money with which loans may be extended in excess of actual savings in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>比如说，低于市场清算或协调水平的帽子价格之间的关键区别在于，短缺会导致一些有意愿的买家空手离开市场；但是，当美联储或任何中央银行希望将利率操纵到市场协调水平以下时，它就会用新创造的货币来填补缺口，这些货币可以用来发放超过经济实际储蓄的贷款。</blockquote></p><p> This not only results in an increase in the number of units of the medium of exchange through which buyers can express their greater demand for desired goods and services, tending, in general, to place upward pressure on overall market prices. It also influences the structure of relative prices and wages, since increases in the supply of money can only enter the economy through the increased demand for the particular goods, resources, and services those borrowers of that new money wish to purchase and use. But the money is then passed to another group of hands; that is, those who have sold those goods, resources and services to the borrowers. This second group, in turn, spends the new money that they have received from sales on other goods, resources and services for which they wish to increase their demand.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅导致交换媒介单位数量的增加，购买者可以通过这种媒介表达他们对所需商品和服务的更大需求，通常倾向于对总体市场价格施加上行压力。它还影响相对价格和工资的结构，因为货币供应量的增加只能通过对新货币的借款人希望购买和使用的特定商品、资源和服务的需求增加而进入经济。但是这些钱随后被传递到另一组人手中；即那些向借款人出售这些商品、资源和服务的人。反过来，第二组人将他们从销售中获得的新钱花在他们希望增加需求的其他商品、资源和服务上。</blockquote></p><p> Step-by-step, in a patterned sequence through time, the newly created money increases the demands and the prices of one set of goods and services, and then another, and then another, until, finally, in principle, all prices for finished goods and the factors of production will have been impacted to one degree or another, at different times in the sequence, with changes in relative profit margins and employment opportunities for as long as the monetary inflationary process continues.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，新创造的货币一步一步地增加了一套商品和服务的需求和价格，然后是另一套，然后是另一套，直到最后，原则上，成品和生产要素的所有价格都会在序列的不同时间受到某种程度的影响，只要货币通货膨胀过程继续，相对利润率和就业机会就会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that whenever the monetary expansion stops or slows down, or even, perhaps, fails to accelerate, the resulting patterned use of labor, resources, and capital equipment brought into existence due to the way the money has entered into the economy and is being spent, period-after-period, begins to fall apart. This precipitates a readjustment process during which it is discovered that labor, capital and resources have been directed into allocated and applied for uses that are unsustainable once the inflationary process comes to an end.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着，每当货币扩张停止或放缓，甚至可能未能加速时，由于货币进入经济和支出的方式而产生的劳动力、资源和资本设备的模式使用就开始分崩离析。这引发了一个重新调整过程，在此过程中，人们发现，一旦通货膨胀过程结束，劳动力、资本和资源已被分配和应用于不可持续的用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Monetary Expansion and Bank Reserve Tricks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的货币扩张和银行准备金技巧</b></blockquote></p><p> For over ten years, since the financial and housing crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve has been dramatically expanding the money supply. In January 2008, the Monetary Base (loanable reserves in the banking system plus currency in general circulation) equaled $837 billion; by August 2014, the Monetary Base had been expanded to over $4 trillion. In February 2020, just before the Coronavirus crisis impacted the U.S. in terms of the government mandated lockdowns and shutdowns, it still was historically high at $3.45 trillion; but by July 2021, the Monetary Base stood at $6.13 trillion, or a nearly 78 percent increase just in the last year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>自2008-2009年金融和房地产危机以来的十多年里，美联储一直在大幅扩大货币供应。2008年1月，货币基础（银行体系可供借贷储备加上一般流通货币）为8,370亿元；到2014年8月，货币基础已扩大到超过4万亿美元。2020年2月，就在冠状病毒危机影响美国政府强制封锁和停工之前，仍处于3.45万亿美元的历史高位；但到2021年7月，基础货币为6.13万亿美元，仅在过去一年半内就增长了近78%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why has there not been the expected general price inflation from such a huge increase in the money supply through the banking system? Because the Federal Reserve has been paying banks not to fully lend the loanable reserves at their disposal.</b>As a result, as of July 2021, banks were holding “excess reserves,” (that is, reserves above the minimum Federal Reserve rules require banks to hold against possible cash withdrawals by their depositors), of around $3.9 trillion, upon which the Federal Reserve pays those banks an interest rate of 0.15 percent. In other words, 63 percent of the Monetary Base is being held off the active loan market.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么通过银行系统如此巨大的货币供应增加没有出现预期的普遍价格通胀？因为美联储一直在付钱给银行，让他们不要完全借出他们可以支配的可贷准备金。</b>因此，截至2021年7月，银行持有约3.9万亿美元的“超额准备金”（即高于美联储规则要求银行为储户可能提取现金而持有的最低准备金），美联储向这些银行支付0.15%的利率。换句话说，63%的基础货币被活跃的贷款市场拒之门外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Given that real GDP in the United States has increased by over 25 percent since 2010, and the velocity of circulation of money (number of times money turns over in transactions per period of time), has decreased by almost 40 percent over the last ten years or so, it is not too surprising that prices in general have not been rising more, or more rapidly, given these countervailing factors, plus the Federal Reserve’s “trick” of paying banks to not lend all the huge amount of bank reserves their open market operations have created during the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美国的实际GDP自2010年以来增长了25%以上，而货币流通速度（每段时间内货币在交易中周转的次数）在过去十年左右下降了近40%，鉴于这些抵消因素，再加上美联储付钱给银行不要将其公开市场操作在过去十年中创造的所有巨额银行准备金放贷的“伎俩”，价格总体上没有上涨更多或更快也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Markets Still Distorted, Even with Low Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即使价格通胀较低，市场仍然扭曲</b></blockquote></p><p> It is nonetheless the case, that through its continuing large purchases of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, market interest rates have been artificially pushed significantly below any rates of interest that would prevail on financial markets not manipulated in this manner.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事实是，通过持续大量购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，市场利率被人为地大幅推低到不以这种方式操纵的金融市场的任何利率以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is not unreasonable to ask what informational role market interest rates have been even playing about the real underlying savings and investment borrowing relationship in the economy in such a setting. Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy has undermined any reasonably accurate intertemporal price to coordinate saving with borrowing.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在这种情况下，人们不禁要问，市场利率在经济中真正的潜在储蓄和投资借贷关系中发挥了什么信息作用。美联储的货币和利率政策破坏了任何合理准确的跨期价格来协调储蓄和借贷。</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way of saying this is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary central planning has virtually abolished a market-based pricing system for the allocation and use of resources across time. How can anyone easily know what real savings is available to fund investment and other loan uses in a way that is not throwing the economy out of serious balance?</p><p><blockquote>另一种说法是，美联储的货币中央计划实际上废除了跨时间资源分配和使用的基于市场的定价体系。任何人怎么能轻易地知道有哪些真正的储蓄可以用来为投资和其他贷款用途提供资金，而不会使经济严重失衡？</blockquote></p><p> In the name of trying to steer the economic “ship” to assure growing GDP, moderate price inflation, and “full employment” of the labor force, Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed Board members are, in fact, setting the stage for an eventual economic downturn by distorting a series of interconnected “microeconomic” relationships in the name of “macroeconomic” stability.</p><p><blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和他的美联储董事会成员以试图驾驭经济“船”以确保GDP增长、温和的价格通胀和劳动力“充分就业”的名义，实际上是在通过以“宏观经济”稳定的名义扭曲一系列相互关联的“微观经济”关系，为最终的经济衰退埋下伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed chairman cautiously suggests that the American central bankers are not sure what they are going to do, it is because they cannot do what they say they want to do.<b>By trying to pursue their declared goals through the monetary and interest rate policy tools at their disposal, they are, in fact, continuing to imbalance and wrongly “twist” the real economy in ways that will result in the instability, and the eventual recession and likely price inflation they say they wish to prevent.</b></p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席谨慎地暗示美国央行行长们不确定他们要做什么时，那是因为他们不能做他们说想做的事情。<b>通过试图通过他们所掌握的货币和利率政策工具来追求他们宣称的目标，他们实际上是在继续失衡和错误地“扭曲”实体经济，从而导致不稳定、最终的衰退和他们所说的他们希望防止的可能的价格通胀。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 20:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no different with Jerome Powell’s virtual address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What they got is what Harry Truman complained about when hearing from his economic advisors:<i><b>“On the one hand, ‘this,’ but on the other hand, ‘that’.”</b></i>Truman said that he desperately wanted a one-handed economist.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席发表讲话时，金融市场都会倾听，这与杰罗姆·鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行行长年会上的虚拟讲话没有什么不同。他们得到的是哈里·杜鲁门在听取他的经济顾问的意见时所抱怨的：<i><b>“一方面是‘这个’，另一方面是‘那个’。”</b></i>杜鲁门说，他非常想要一个单手经济学家。</blockquote></p><p> After a decade of general economic calm most of the time, with modest to reasonable growth, relatively low price inflation, and, at the beginning of 2020 before the Coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment at its lowest level in half a century,<b>everyone is now worried about what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary and interest rate policy in the months and years ahead in the face of all that has been happening for the last year and a half.</b></p><p><blockquote>在经历了十年大部分时间经济总体平静、适度至合理的增长、相对较低的物价通胀，以及在2020年初冠状病毒封锁之前，失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低水平，<b>面对过去一年半发生的一切，每个人现在都在担心美联储在未来几个月和几年的货币和利率政策方面会发生什么。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Whipsaw GDP and Huge Government Expenditures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大幅增长的GDP和巨额政府支出</b></blockquote></p><p> After a staggering decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $19.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $17.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, or a 9 percent decrease of real GDP in a matter of a few months, the latest revised estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the second quarter of 2021 is that real GDP reached $19.36 trillion. This was a 12.5 percent increase over its 2020 low, and a level now above its pre-Coronavirus high.</p><p><blockquote>在实际国内生产总值（GDP）从2019年第四季度的19.2万亿美元惊人下降到2020年第二季度的17.2万亿美元，即实际GDP在几个月内下降了9%之后，经济分析局（BEA）对2021年第二季度的最新修订估计为实际GDP达到19.36万亿美元。这比2020年的低点增长了12.5%，目前高于冠状病毒爆发前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is worth keeping in mind, however, that all of these numbers are exaggerated in terms of real private sector vibrancy because in 2019, federal government expenditures came to $4.45 trillion, or 23 percent of that $19.2 trillion GDP total.</b>By the end of 2020, due to the relaxing of the federal and state lockdown and shutdown mandates over much of the U.S. economy in the second half of last year, real GDP had recovered to $18.76 trillion, but federal government expenditures came to $6.6 trillion, or 35 percent of that total GDP. And just in the first half of 2021, out of that $19.36 trillion GDP, federal spending has already been $5.86 trillion of that total, or 30.2 percent.</p><p><blockquote><b>然而，值得记住的是，就私营部门的实际活力而言，所有这些数字都被夸大了，因为2019年，联邦政府支出达到4.45万亿美元，占19.2万亿美元GDP总额的23%。</b>到2020年底，由于去年下半年联邦和州对美国经济大部分地区的封锁和关闭命令放松，实际GDP已恢复至18.76万亿美元，但联邦政府支出达到6.6万亿美元，占GDP总量的35%。就在2021年上半年，在19.36万亿美元的GDP中，联邦支出已经占了5.86万亿美元，占30.2%。</blockquote></p><p> If government spending is even partly discounted from GDP as a false indicator of the economic “health” of the U.S., since Uncle Sam has nothing to spend other than what it either first taxes away from the private sector or has borrowed from the financial markets, the private economy is far from doing as well as the GDP numbers suggest.</p><p><blockquote>如果政府支出甚至部分从GDP中扣除，作为美国经济“健康”的错误指标，因为山姆大叔除了首先从私营部门征税或从金融市场借款之外没有什么可花的，私营经济远没有GDP数据显示的那么好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lagging Unemployment and Rising Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>滞后的失业和不断上升的物价通胀</b></blockquote></p><p> After unemployment had reached a low of 3.5 percent of the labor force at the start of 2020, it rose to almost 15 percent in April of last year, due to the government-commanded halt of a huge amount of economic activity. In July 2021, unemployment had declined to 5.4 percent of the labor force; but this still left it almost 55 percent above its low at the beginning of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年初达到劳动力3.5%的低点后，由于政府下令停止大量经济活动，失业率在去年4月升至近15%。2021年7月，失业率已降至劳动力的5.4%；但这仍使其比2020年初的低点高出近55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>After the Consumer Price Index (CPI) mostly fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of between one and two percent, annually, over the last ten years, 2021 has seen the CPI increase to 5.4 percent in July of this year. Certain subgroups, such as energy and used car automotive sectors increased in double digit ranges on an annualized basis.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在过去十年中，消费者价格指数（CPI）每年大多在1%至2%的相对狭窄范围内波动后，2021年CPI在今年7月上涨至5.4%。某些子组，例如能源和二手车汽车行业，年化增长幅度达到两位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> With unemployment still considered high, with the CPI increasing noticeably above the decade-long annual average, and question marks concerning how GDP will grow for the remainder of this year, given continuing supply-chain disruptions and uncertainties about the impact of variations and new mutations of the Coronavirus, all eyes and ears turned to Jerome Powell’s pronouncements about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy.</p><p><blockquote>由于失业率仍然很高，CPI涨幅明显高于十年来的年平均水平，鉴于供应链持续中断以及变异和新变异影响的不确定性，今年剩余时间GDP将如何增长也存在问号冠状病毒，所有的眼睛和耳朵都转向了杰罗姆·鲍威尔关于美联储货币和利率政策未来方向的声明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Maybe This, Maybe That, Policy Pronouncement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的政策声明也许是这个，也许是那个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>And what he said was that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has not decided what to do!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>而他说的是，美联储理事会还没有决定该怎么做！</b></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the economy is improving so, perhaps, before the end of the year, the Fed will reduce its current monthly purchase of $120 billion worth of assets – $80 billion of U.S. government securities, and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. And it may decide that it is time to no longer use its policy tools to keep key interest rates close to zero.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，经济正在改善，因此，也许在今年年底之前，美联储将减少目前每月购买价值1200亿美元的资产——800亿美元的美国政府证券和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。它可能会决定，是时候不再使用其政策工具将关键利率保持在接近零的水平了。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, recent price inflation may only be a transitory spurt due to supply-side problems, so the concern about accelerating price increases may be misplaced. Therefore, it may be premature to reduce asset purchases too quickly and certainly it is necessary to be cautious in any nudging up of interest rates that might cut short the national economic recovery before unemployment has been reduced, once again, to a level closer to standard benchmarks of “full employment.”</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，近期的价格通胀可能只是供给侧问题造成的短暂井喷，因此对价格加速上涨的担忧可能是错位的。因此，过快减少资产购买可能还为时过早，当然，在失业率再次降至更接近“充分就业”标准基准的水平之前，任何可能缩短国民经济复苏的加息都需要谨慎。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the one hand, the worst of the Coronavirus may have passed, so there may be no new shutdown hurdles in the way of continuing improvement as reflected in the usual macroeconomic measurements. On the other hand, virus variants may prevent a smooth path to a fully restored and growing economy. So, it may be too soon to really specify when and by how much asset purchases will be reduced or by how much those interest rates will be raised from their current near zero levels.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，冠状病毒最糟糕的时期可能已经过去，因此在持续改善的道路上可能不会出现新的停工障碍，正如通常的宏观经济指标所反映的那样。另一方面，病毒变种可能会阻碍通往全面恢复和增长的经济的顺利道路。因此，现在真正确定何时减少资产购买以及减少多少，或者这些利率将从目前接近零的水平上调多少，可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed Chairman also said that, on the one hand, the Fed leadership has plenty of experience and policy tools to keep the economy on a sound and even path. On the other hand, such things as the impact of the Coronavirus and the threats facing the world from global warming are unique, making charting the Fed policy course a distinct challenge.</p><p><blockquote>这位美联储主席还表示，一方面，美联储领导层拥有丰富的经验和政策工具，可以让经济保持在稳健、平稳的道路上。另一方面，冠状病毒的影响和全球变暖对世界的威胁是独特的，这使得制定美联储的政策路线成为一个明显的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Reticence and the Political Business Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的沉默与政治商业周期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>In other words, Jerome Powell evaded any straightforward policy program, and therefore offered something for almost everyone, in terms of easing fears and concerns that either the policy foot will stay too long where it is on the accelerator or will start putting on the brakes too quickly.</b>Either he is being reticent due to honest doubts about what he thinks is ahead for the economy, or he knows how to play to the audience in the White House and in Congress who will decide whether or not he is appointed for a second term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. After all, you don’t want to seem to be planning any clear policy moves that might threaten the reelection of Senators or Congressmen in the 2022 elections, or antagonize a president who does not want to lose his thin majority in the national legislature.</p><p><blockquote><b>换句话说，杰罗姆·鲍威尔回避了任何直截了当的政策计划，因此为几乎所有人提供了一些东西，缓解了人们的恐惧和担忧，即政策要么会在油门上停留太久，要么会开始踩刹车太快。</b>要么他是因为对他认为的经济前景的诚实怀疑而保持沉默，要么他知道如何迎合白宫和国会的观众，他们将决定他是否被任命为美联储系统理事会主席的第二个任期。毕竟，你不想看起来正在计划任何可能威胁参议员或众议员在2022年选举中连任的明确政策举措，或者激怒一位不想失去在国家立法机构中微弱多数的总统。</blockquote></p><p> That politicians and central bankers are sensitive to the phases of the business cycle as they may impact the political electoral cycle in thinking about their policy decisions and directions has been understood by some economists at least since Johan Akerman’s (1896-1982) analysis of the “Political Economic Cycle” (<i>Kyklos</i>, May 1947), in which he traced out observed changes in those running governments in democratic societies resulting from the phases in the business cycle, and how those in government attempt to manage public policy to maintain their political positions.</p><p><blockquote>至少自约翰·阿克曼（Johan Akerman，1896-1982）对“政治经济周期”（<i>基克洛斯</i>在这篇文章中，他追溯了在民主社会中由商业周期的各个阶段引起的政府管理者的变化，以及政府中的那些人如何试图管理公共政策以维持他们的政治地位。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, Akerman said, looking over the period from the mid-19th century to 1945 in countries like Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Sweden, the result of the analysis could be summarized in the following way: “All general economic depressions in England . . . lead to cabinet crises and a change of the party in power . . . In the United States the presidential elections as a rule involve a change in party control when votes are cast during a depression and a maintenance of the party in office when the votes are cast during periods of prosperity,” in sixteen of the twenty elections between 1865 and 1945.</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼说，从历史上看，纵观19世纪中期至1945年期间的英国、美国、德国和瑞典等国家，分析结果可以总结如下：“英国所有普遍的经济萧条……都会导致内阁危机和执政党的更迭……在美国，总统选举通常涉及在萧条时期投票时改变政党控制，在繁荣时期投票时维持政党执政”，在1865年至1945年的20次选举中有16次。</blockquote></p><p> Governments, Akerman also pointed out, try “to stabilize financial and economic conditions, and for a brief period may succeed in doing so.” While not pursuing it in his article, the fact is that the underlying circumstances that create “booms” that result in “busts” are usually of the government’s own policy. making. The “good times” monetary and fiscal policies finally create the economic crises that threaten the political policy-makers’ positions in authority. Hence, a government’s frequent demise in the next election when a recession or depression finally occurs. (p. 107)</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼还指出，各国政府试图“稳定金融和经济状况，在短时间内可能会成功。”虽然他的文章没有追究这一点，但事实是，造成“繁荣”导致“萧条”的潜在环境通常是政府自己的政策。制作。“好时代”的货币和财政政策最终造成了经济危机，威胁到政治决策者的权威地位。因此，当经济衰退或萧条最终发生时，政府往往会在下一次选举中垮台。（第107页）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Interest Rates Should Coordinate Savings and Investment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利率应协调储蓄和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> But this gets to the real essence of the dilemma in Jerome Powell’s statement of Federal Reserve policy and its possible future direction. The underlying presumption is that a central bank can and should be attempting to manage the monetary system and the level of interest rates in the financial markets and, therefore, trying to macro-manage the society as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>但这触及了杰罗姆·鲍威尔美联储政策声明中困境的真正本质及其未来可能的方向。潜在的假设是，中央银行可以也应该试图管理货币体系和金融市场的利率水平，因此，试图对整个社会进行宏观管理。</blockquote></p><p> Let us start with interest rates. The role of market prices is to bring into coordinated balance the two sides of demand and supply. Prices do so by effectively informing those needing to know on the supply side what is it that demanders want and the value they place upon it in terms of what they are willing to pay to get it; prices, at the same time, inform demanders what suppliers can and are willing to produce and offer for sale, and at what price reflecting the producer’s opportunity costs of bringing a particular good or service to market. The competitive interaction of those two sides of the market brings about the balance between them.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从利率开始。市场价格的作用是使供求双方达到协调平衡。价格通过有效地告知那些在供应方需要知道需求者想要什么以及他们愿意支付什么来获得它的价值来做到这一点；与此同时，价格告诉需求者供应商能够并且愿意生产和出售什么，以及以什么价格反映了生产者将特定商品或服务推向市场的机会成本。市场双方的竞争互动带来了它们之间的平衡。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The role of interest rates is to do the same for borrowers and lenders. It is the trading of the use of resources across time between those who are interested and willing to defer the more immediate use of resources (expressed in money) in their possession or under their control, in return for a premium in the future from those interested in more immediate uses of those resources beyond their own capacity in exchange for paying such a premium in the future. That premium is the rate of interest, which may vary with the duration of the loan and risk elements in extending it.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是为借款人和贷款人做同样的事情。它是那些有兴趣并愿意推迟更直接地使用其拥有或控制的资源（以货币表示）的人之间对资源使用的交易，以换取那些有兴趣更直接地使用超出其自身能力的资源的人在未来支付这种溢价。该溢价就是利率，它可能会随着贷款期限和延长贷款的风险因素而变化。</blockquote></p><p> The role of the rate of interest is to coordinate the willingness of savers with the desires of borrowers. Any rate of interest above or below this results in, respectively, an excess of savings over investment demand or an excess of investment demand over available savings.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是协调储户的意愿和借款人的意愿。高于或低于这一利率的任何利率分别导致储蓄超过投资需求或投资需求超过可用储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manipulating Interests Rates Distorts Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>操纵利率扭曲市场</b></blockquote></p><p> The crucial difference between a price, say, for hats that is set below the market-clearing, or coordinating, level is that a shortage results with some willing buyers leaving the market empty-handed; but when the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, wishes to manipulate interest rates below the market coordinating level, it fills the gap with newly created money with which loans may be extended in excess of actual savings in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>比如说，低于市场清算或协调水平的帽子价格之间的关键区别在于，短缺会导致一些有意愿的买家空手离开市场；但是，当美联储或任何中央银行希望将利率操纵到市场协调水平以下时，它就会用新创造的货币来填补缺口，这些货币可以用来发放超过经济实际储蓄的贷款。</blockquote></p><p> This not only results in an increase in the number of units of the medium of exchange through which buyers can express their greater demand for desired goods and services, tending, in general, to place upward pressure on overall market prices. It also influences the structure of relative prices and wages, since increases in the supply of money can only enter the economy through the increased demand for the particular goods, resources, and services those borrowers of that new money wish to purchase and use. But the money is then passed to another group of hands; that is, those who have sold those goods, resources and services to the borrowers. This second group, in turn, spends the new money that they have received from sales on other goods, resources and services for which they wish to increase their demand.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅导致交换媒介单位数量的增加，购买者可以通过这种媒介表达他们对所需商品和服务的更大需求，通常倾向于对总体市场价格施加上行压力。它还影响相对价格和工资的结构，因为货币供应量的增加只能通过对新货币的借款人希望购买和使用的特定商品、资源和服务的需求增加而进入经济。但是这些钱随后被传递到另一组人手中；即那些向借款人出售这些商品、资源和服务的人。反过来，第二组人将他们从销售中获得的新钱花在他们希望增加需求的其他商品、资源和服务上。</blockquote></p><p> Step-by-step, in a patterned sequence through time, the newly created money increases the demands and the prices of one set of goods and services, and then another, and then another, until, finally, in principle, all prices for finished goods and the factors of production will have been impacted to one degree or another, at different times in the sequence, with changes in relative profit margins and employment opportunities for as long as the monetary inflationary process continues.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，新创造的货币一步一步地增加了一套商品和服务的需求和价格，然后是另一套，然后是另一套，直到最后，原则上，成品和生产要素的所有价格都会在序列的不同时间受到某种程度的影响，只要货币通货膨胀过程继续，相对利润率和就业机会就会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that whenever the monetary expansion stops or slows down, or even, perhaps, fails to accelerate, the resulting patterned use of labor, resources, and capital equipment brought into existence due to the way the money has entered into the economy and is being spent, period-after-period, begins to fall apart. This precipitates a readjustment process during which it is discovered that labor, capital and resources have been directed into allocated and applied for uses that are unsustainable once the inflationary process comes to an end.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着，每当货币扩张停止或放缓，甚至可能未能加速时，由于货币进入经济和支出的方式而产生的劳动力、资源和资本设备的模式使用就开始分崩离析。这引发了一个重新调整过程，在此过程中，人们发现，一旦通货膨胀过程结束，劳动力、资本和资源已被分配和应用于不可持续的用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Monetary Expansion and Bank Reserve Tricks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的货币扩张和银行准备金技巧</b></blockquote></p><p> For over ten years, since the financial and housing crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve has been dramatically expanding the money supply. In January 2008, the Monetary Base (loanable reserves in the banking system plus currency in general circulation) equaled $837 billion; by August 2014, the Monetary Base had been expanded to over $4 trillion. In February 2020, just before the Coronavirus crisis impacted the U.S. in terms of the government mandated lockdowns and shutdowns, it still was historically high at $3.45 trillion; but by July 2021, the Monetary Base stood at $6.13 trillion, or a nearly 78 percent increase just in the last year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>自2008-2009年金融和房地产危机以来的十多年里，美联储一直在大幅扩大货币供应。2008年1月，货币基础（银行体系可供借贷储备加上一般流通货币）为8,370亿元；到2014年8月，货币基础已扩大到超过4万亿美元。2020年2月，就在冠状病毒危机影响美国政府强制封锁和停工之前，仍处于3.45万亿美元的历史高位；但到2021年7月，基础货币为6.13万亿美元，仅在过去一年半内就增长了近78%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why has there not been the expected general price inflation from such a huge increase in the money supply through the banking system? Because the Federal Reserve has been paying banks not to fully lend the loanable reserves at their disposal.</b>As a result, as of July 2021, banks were holding “excess reserves,” (that is, reserves above the minimum Federal Reserve rules require banks to hold against possible cash withdrawals by their depositors), of around $3.9 trillion, upon which the Federal Reserve pays those banks an interest rate of 0.15 percent. In other words, 63 percent of the Monetary Base is being held off the active loan market.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么通过银行系统如此巨大的货币供应增加没有出现预期的普遍价格通胀？因为美联储一直在付钱给银行，让他们不要完全借出他们可以支配的可贷准备金。</b>因此，截至2021年7月，银行持有约3.9万亿美元的“超额准备金”（即高于美联储规则要求银行为储户可能提取现金而持有的最低准备金），美联储向这些银行支付0.15%的利率。换句话说，63%的基础货币被活跃的贷款市场拒之门外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Given that real GDP in the United States has increased by over 25 percent since 2010, and the velocity of circulation of money (number of times money turns over in transactions per period of time), has decreased by almost 40 percent over the last ten years or so, it is not too surprising that prices in general have not been rising more, or more rapidly, given these countervailing factors, plus the Federal Reserve’s “trick” of paying banks to not lend all the huge amount of bank reserves their open market operations have created during the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美国的实际GDP自2010年以来增长了25%以上，而货币流通速度（每段时间内货币在交易中周转的次数）在过去十年左右下降了近40%，鉴于这些抵消因素，再加上美联储付钱给银行不要将其公开市场操作在过去十年中创造的所有巨额银行准备金放贷的“伎俩”，价格总体上没有上涨更多或更快也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Markets Still Distorted, Even with Low Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即使价格通胀较低，市场仍然扭曲</b></blockquote></p><p> It is nonetheless the case, that through its continuing large purchases of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, market interest rates have been artificially pushed significantly below any rates of interest that would prevail on financial markets not manipulated in this manner.</p><p><blockquote>然而，事实是，通过持续大量购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，市场利率被人为地大幅推低到不以这种方式操纵的金融市场的任何利率以下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is not unreasonable to ask what informational role market interest rates have been even playing about the real underlying savings and investment borrowing relationship in the economy in such a setting. Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy has undermined any reasonably accurate intertemporal price to coordinate saving with borrowing.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在这种情况下，人们不禁要问，市场利率在经济中真正的潜在储蓄和投资借贷关系中发挥了什么信息作用。美联储的货币和利率政策破坏了任何合理准确的跨期价格来协调储蓄和借贷。</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way of saying this is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary central planning has virtually abolished a market-based pricing system for the allocation and use of resources across time. How can anyone easily know what real savings is available to fund investment and other loan uses in a way that is not throwing the economy out of serious balance?</p><p><blockquote>另一种说法是，美联储的货币中央计划实际上废除了跨时间资源分配和使用的基于市场的定价体系。任何人怎么能轻易地知道有哪些真正的储蓄可以用来为投资和其他贷款用途提供资金，而不会使经济严重失衡？</blockquote></p><p> In the name of trying to steer the economic “ship” to assure growing GDP, moderate price inflation, and “full employment” of the labor force, Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed Board members are, in fact, setting the stage for an eventual economic downturn by distorting a series of interconnected “microeconomic” relationships in the name of “macroeconomic” stability.</p><p><blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和他的美联储董事会成员以试图驾驭经济“船”以确保GDP增长、温和的价格通胀和劳动力“充分就业”的名义，实际上是在通过以“宏观经济”稳定的名义扭曲一系列相互关联的“微观经济”关系，为最终的经济衰退埋下伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed chairman cautiously suggests that the American central bankers are not sure what they are going to do, it is because they cannot do what they say they want to do.<b>By trying to pursue their declared goals through the monetary and interest rate policy tools at their disposal, they are, in fact, continuing to imbalance and wrongly “twist” the real economy in ways that will result in the instability, and the eventual recession and likely price inflation they say they wish to prevent.</b></p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席谨慎地暗示美国央行行长们不确定他们要做什么时，那是因为他们不能做他们说想做的事情。<b>通过试图通过他们所掌握的货币和利率政策工具来追求他们宣称的目标，他们实际上是在继续失衡和错误地“扭曲”实体经济，从而导致不稳定、最终的衰退和他们所说的他们希望防止的可能的价格通胀。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jerome-powells-quest-economic-stability-destabilizing\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jerome-powells-quest-economic-stability-destabilizing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138372877","content_text":"When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no different with Jerome Powell’s virtual address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What they got is what Harry Truman complained about when hearing from his economic advisors:“On the one hand, ‘this,’ but on the other hand, ‘that’.”Truman said that he desperately wanted a one-handed economist.\nAfter a decade of general economic calm most of the time, with modest to reasonable growth, relatively low price inflation, and, at the beginning of 2020 before the Coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment at its lowest level in half a century,everyone is now worried about what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary and interest rate policy in the months and years ahead in the face of all that has been happening for the last year and a half.\nWhipsaw GDP and Huge Government Expenditures\nAfter a staggering decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $19.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $17.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, or a 9 percent decrease of real GDP in a matter of a few months, the latest revised estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the second quarter of 2021 is that real GDP reached $19.36 trillion. This was a 12.5 percent increase over its 2020 low, and a level now above its pre-Coronavirus high.\nIt is worth keeping in mind, however, that all of these numbers are exaggerated in terms of real private sector vibrancy because in 2019, federal government expenditures came to $4.45 trillion, or 23 percent of that $19.2 trillion GDP total.By the end of 2020, due to the relaxing of the federal and state lockdown and shutdown mandates over much of the U.S. economy in the second half of last year, real GDP had recovered to $18.76 trillion, but federal government expenditures came to $6.6 trillion, or 35 percent of that total GDP. And just in the first half of 2021, out of that $19.36 trillion GDP, federal spending has already been $5.86 trillion of that total, or 30.2 percent.\nIf government spending is even partly discounted from GDP as a false indicator of the economic “health” of the U.S., since Uncle Sam has nothing to spend other than what it either first taxes away from the private sector or has borrowed from the financial markets, the private economy is far from doing as well as the GDP numbers suggest.\nLagging Unemployment and Rising Price Inflation\nAfter unemployment had reached a low of 3.5 percent of the labor force at the start of 2020, it rose to almost 15 percent in April of last year, due to the government-commanded halt of a huge amount of economic activity. In July 2021, unemployment had declined to 5.4 percent of the labor force; but this still left it almost 55 percent above its low at the beginning of 2020.\nAfter the Consumer Price Index (CPI) mostly fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of between one and two percent, annually, over the last ten years, 2021 has seen the CPI increase to 5.4 percent in July of this year. Certain subgroups, such as energy and used car automotive sectors increased in double digit ranges on an annualized basis.\nWith unemployment still considered high, with the CPI increasing noticeably above the decade-long annual average, and question marks concerning how GDP will grow for the remainder of this year, given continuing supply-chain disruptions and uncertainties about the impact of variations and new mutations of the Coronavirus, all eyes and ears turned to Jerome Powell’s pronouncements about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy.\nPowell’s Maybe This, Maybe That, Policy Pronouncement\nAnd what he said was that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has not decided what to do!\nOn the one hand, the economy is improving so, perhaps, before the end of the year, the Fed will reduce its current monthly purchase of $120 billion worth of assets – $80 billion of U.S. government securities, and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. And it may decide that it is time to no longer use its policy tools to keep key interest rates close to zero.\nOn the other hand, recent price inflation may only be a transitory spurt due to supply-side problems, so the concern about accelerating price increases may be misplaced. Therefore, it may be premature to reduce asset purchases too quickly and certainly it is necessary to be cautious in any nudging up of interest rates that might cut short the national economic recovery before unemployment has been reduced, once again, to a level closer to standard benchmarks of “full employment.”\nOn the one hand, the worst of the Coronavirus may have passed, so there may be no new shutdown hurdles in the way of continuing improvement as reflected in the usual macroeconomic measurements. On the other hand, virus variants may prevent a smooth path to a fully restored and growing economy. So, it may be too soon to really specify when and by how much asset purchases will be reduced or by how much those interest rates will be raised from their current near zero levels.\nThe Fed Chairman also said that, on the one hand, the Fed leadership has plenty of experience and policy tools to keep the economy on a sound and even path. On the other hand, such things as the impact of the Coronavirus and the threats facing the world from global warming are unique, making charting the Fed policy course a distinct challenge.\nPowell’s Reticence and the Political Business Cycle\nIn other words, Jerome Powell evaded any straightforward policy program, and therefore offered something for almost everyone, in terms of easing fears and concerns that either the policy foot will stay too long where it is on the accelerator or will start putting on the brakes too quickly.Either he is being reticent due to honest doubts about what he thinks is ahead for the economy, or he knows how to play to the audience in the White House and in Congress who will decide whether or not he is appointed for a second term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. After all, you don’t want to seem to be planning any clear policy moves that might threaten the reelection of Senators or Congressmen in the 2022 elections, or antagonize a president who does not want to lose his thin majority in the national legislature.\nThat politicians and central bankers are sensitive to the phases of the business cycle as they may impact the political electoral cycle in thinking about their policy decisions and directions has been understood by some economists at least since Johan Akerman’s (1896-1982) analysis of the “Political Economic Cycle” (Kyklos, May 1947), in which he traced out observed changes in those running governments in democratic societies resulting from the phases in the business cycle, and how those in government attempt to manage public policy to maintain their political positions.\nHistorically, Akerman said, looking over the period from the mid-19th century to 1945 in countries like Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Sweden, the result of the analysis could be summarized in the following way: “All general economic depressions in England . . . lead to cabinet crises and a change of the party in power . . . In the United States the presidential elections as a rule involve a change in party control when votes are cast during a depression and a maintenance of the party in office when the votes are cast during periods of prosperity,” in sixteen of the twenty elections between 1865 and 1945.\nGovernments, Akerman also pointed out, try “to stabilize financial and economic conditions, and for a brief period may succeed in doing so.” While not pursuing it in his article, the fact is that the underlying circumstances that create “booms” that result in “busts” are usually of the government’s own policy. making. The “good times” monetary and fiscal policies finally create the economic crises that threaten the political policy-makers’ positions in authority. Hence, a government’s frequent demise in the next election when a recession or depression finally occurs. (p. 107)\nInterest Rates Should Coordinate Savings and Investment\nBut this gets to the real essence of the dilemma in Jerome Powell’s statement of Federal Reserve policy and its possible future direction. The underlying presumption is that a central bank can and should be attempting to manage the monetary system and the level of interest rates in the financial markets and, therefore, trying to macro-manage the society as a whole.\nLet us start with interest rates. The role of market prices is to bring into coordinated balance the two sides of demand and supply. Prices do so by effectively informing those needing to know on the supply side what is it that demanders want and the value they place upon it in terms of what they are willing to pay to get it; prices, at the same time, inform demanders what suppliers can and are willing to produce and offer for sale, and at what price reflecting the producer’s opportunity costs of bringing a particular good or service to market. The competitive interaction of those two sides of the market brings about the balance between them.\nThe role of interest rates is to do the same for borrowers and lenders. It is the trading of the use of resources across time between those who are interested and willing to defer the more immediate use of resources (expressed in money) in their possession or under their control, in return for a premium in the future from those interested in more immediate uses of those resources beyond their own capacity in exchange for paying such a premium in the future. That premium is the rate of interest, which may vary with the duration of the loan and risk elements in extending it.\nThe role of the rate of interest is to coordinate the willingness of savers with the desires of borrowers. Any rate of interest above or below this results in, respectively, an excess of savings over investment demand or an excess of investment demand over available savings.\nManipulating Interests Rates Distorts Markets\nThe crucial difference between a price, say, for hats that is set below the market-clearing, or coordinating, level is that a shortage results with some willing buyers leaving the market empty-handed; but when the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, wishes to manipulate interest rates below the market coordinating level, it fills the gap with newly created money with which loans may be extended in excess of actual savings in the economy.\nThis not only results in an increase in the number of units of the medium of exchange through which buyers can express their greater demand for desired goods and services, tending, in general, to place upward pressure on overall market prices. It also influences the structure of relative prices and wages, since increases in the supply of money can only enter the economy through the increased demand for the particular goods, resources, and services those borrowers of that new money wish to purchase and use. But the money is then passed to another group of hands; that is, those who have sold those goods, resources and services to the borrowers. This second group, in turn, spends the new money that they have received from sales on other goods, resources and services for which they wish to increase their demand.\nStep-by-step, in a patterned sequence through time, the newly created money increases the demands and the prices of one set of goods and services, and then another, and then another, until, finally, in principle, all prices for finished goods and the factors of production will have been impacted to one degree or another, at different times in the sequence, with changes in relative profit margins and employment opportunities for as long as the monetary inflationary process continues.\nThis also means that whenever the monetary expansion stops or slows down, or even, perhaps, fails to accelerate, the resulting patterned use of labor, resources, and capital equipment brought into existence due to the way the money has entered into the economy and is being spent, period-after-period, begins to fall apart. This precipitates a readjustment process during which it is discovered that labor, capital and resources have been directed into allocated and applied for uses that are unsustainable once the inflationary process comes to an end.\nThe Fed’s Monetary Expansion and Bank Reserve Tricks\nFor over ten years, since the financial and housing crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve has been dramatically expanding the money supply. In January 2008, the Monetary Base (loanable reserves in the banking system plus currency in general circulation) equaled $837 billion; by August 2014, the Monetary Base had been expanded to over $4 trillion. In February 2020, just before the Coronavirus crisis impacted the U.S. in terms of the government mandated lockdowns and shutdowns, it still was historically high at $3.45 trillion; but by July 2021, the Monetary Base stood at $6.13 trillion, or a nearly 78 percent increase just in the last year and a half.\nWhy has there not been the expected general price inflation from such a huge increase in the money supply through the banking system? Because the Federal Reserve has been paying banks not to fully lend the loanable reserves at their disposal.As a result, as of July 2021, banks were holding “excess reserves,” (that is, reserves above the minimum Federal Reserve rules require banks to hold against possible cash withdrawals by their depositors), of around $3.9 trillion, upon which the Federal Reserve pays those banks an interest rate of 0.15 percent. In other words, 63 percent of the Monetary Base is being held off the active loan market.\nGiven that real GDP in the United States has increased by over 25 percent since 2010, and the velocity of circulation of money (number of times money turns over in transactions per period of time), has decreased by almost 40 percent over the last ten years or so, it is not too surprising that prices in general have not been rising more, or more rapidly, given these countervailing factors, plus the Federal Reserve’s “trick” of paying banks to not lend all the huge amount of bank reserves their open market operations have created during the past decade.\nMarkets Still Distorted, Even with Low Price Inflation\nIt is nonetheless the case, that through its continuing large purchases of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, market interest rates have been artificially pushed significantly below any rates of interest that would prevail on financial markets not manipulated in this manner.\nIt is not unreasonable to ask what informational role market interest rates have been even playing about the real underlying savings and investment borrowing relationship in the economy in such a setting. Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy has undermined any reasonably accurate intertemporal price to coordinate saving with borrowing.\nAnother way of saying this is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary central planning has virtually abolished a market-based pricing system for the allocation and use of resources across time. How can anyone easily know what real savings is available to fund investment and other loan uses in a way that is not throwing the economy out of serious balance?\nIn the name of trying to steer the economic “ship” to assure growing GDP, moderate price inflation, and “full employment” of the labor force, Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed Board members are, in fact, setting the stage for an eventual economic downturn by distorting a series of interconnected “microeconomic” relationships in the name of “macroeconomic” stability.\nWhen the Fed chairman cautiously suggests that the American central bankers are not sure what they are going to do, it is because they cannot do what they say they want to do.By trying to pursue their declared goals through the monetary and interest rate policy tools at their disposal, they are, in fact, continuing to imbalance and wrongly “twist” the real economy in ways that will result in the instability, and the eventual recession and likely price inflation they say they wish to prevent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817204433,"gmtCreate":1630965777822,"gmtModify":1631891649785,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817204433","repostId":"1183504703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183504703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932846,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183504703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:54","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于2021年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183504703","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Commodities Tie the Year Together\n2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline i","content":"<p><u><b>Commodities Tie the Year Together</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>大宗商品将一年联系在一起</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply</b>. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation. Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.</p><p><blockquote><b>对于许多投资者来说，2021年是比总体指数所暗示的更艰难的一年</b>今年，“ESG”和“量化”仍然是投资界的关键结构性趋势。在过去的一年里，关于增长和通胀前景的辩论几乎持续不断。碰巧的是，大宗商品发现自己处于所有这些故事的中心。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s start with the challenging year. <b>The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.</b></p><p><blockquote>让我们从充满挑战的一年开始。<b>不经意的观察者认为2021年是在公园散步，截至9月1日，全球股市回报率为16%，波动性处于历史低位，这是情有可原的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>But under the surface, it’s been hard</b>. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote><b>但在表面之下，这很难</b>.在像美国股市这样的“良好”市场中，这很难，因为主要的轮动导致相对表现大幅波动（美国小盘股截至3月中旬上涨了+20%，此后一直走低）。全球股市也很艰难，自2月14日以来，MSCI中国股市下跌了26%，而MSCI欧洲股市同期上涨了14%。许多主动型基金经理落后于他们的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Yet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从数量上看，今年在利率和外汇方面可能会更加艰难。我们运行跨资产系统交易工具（CAST），旨在确定哪些因素对跨资产表现至关重要，并根据这些因素在给定时刻的表现进行系统投资。CAST问“如果我做了市场上历史上有效的事情，给定当前的信息，我应该做什么？”.</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes. Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，与所有其他资产类别相比，遵循这些历史模式导致利率和外汇表现较差。历史模式在哪里做得更好？商品。好多了。</blockquote></p><p> Investing systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:</p><p><blockquote>基于有吸引力的因素（利差、动量、估值、支持性基本面）进行系统投资，在大宗商品中的效果比任何其他资产类别都好（信贷位居第二）。为什么？我们有几种理论：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Natural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>商品市场的自然低效率会产生风险溢价。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>The tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.</p><p><blockquote><li>大宗商品在更长周期内波动的趋势意味着动量更有效。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Central banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.</b></p><p><blockquote><li><b>各国央行没有干预这些市场（投资者流量也更加平静），从而允许更多“正常”的动态发挥作用。</b></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Given the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于量化和系统投资作为投资管理主题的突出地位，这一点非常重要。尽你所能，去这些类型的策略有效的地方。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG. The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品还与第二大投资主题ESG相关。气候变化的潜在现实和严重性保持不变，事实上，在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布报告后，看起来更加紧迫。然而，尽管ESG相关股票在2021年出现了明显波动，但大宗商品市场却传递了更加一致的信息。</blockquote></p><p> The price for EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>例如，欧盟碳排放价格(MO1 Comdty)今年迄今已上涨88%。我的同事罗伯特·普林(Robert Pulleyn)一直看好这样一种信念，即更高的排放价格对于实现欧盟的气候目标至关重要。从短期来看，鉴于最近的上涨，他认为价格在2027年恢复上涨趋势至€102/吨之前存在下跌风险（参见公用事业：碳：未来的疲软风险？在3月恢复上涨之前，2021年8月9日）。</blockquote></p><p> Wait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>等等，你可能会说。如果大宗商品市场如此关注气候变化的现实，为什么今年油价会上涨而不是下跌？同样，我们认为市场实际上是相当理性的。股东压力和未来电动汽车采用的威胁正在导致石油生产商大幅减少资本支出计划，我的同事Martijn Rats认为这一发展将有助于限制供应并保持价格高位（参见播客|市场思考：挪威的奇怪案例，电动汽车和石油，2021年9月2日）。</blockquote></p><p> ESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?</p><p><blockquote>ESG和系统性投资是主要的行业主题。我们都知道，2021年将比总体指数显示的更加困难。但今年最大的新闻是围绕增长和通胀的辩论。公平地说，大宗商品对此有何看法？</blockquote></p><p> While commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,<b>recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022</b>.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大宗商品价格通常是通货膨胀的同义词，但我们的预测表明，它们现在发挥的作用将较小。价格最大的下行风险可能来自核心商品（需求远高于趋势），而最大的上行风险可能来自租金增长（在篮子中占很大份额，而且强劲）。尽管如此，<b>近期大宗商品价格的企稳应该会强化总体通胀的暂时性，我们的经济学家预计通胀将在2022年中期放缓</b>.</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.<b>Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the US and China</b>(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在增长辩论中，大宗商品是前沿和中心。<b>我们的经济学家预计美国和中国第三季度经济都会放缓</b>（但不是欧洲，这是另一个时间的故事）。铜价和CRB RIND指数这两个周期性走强的关键先兆仍然居高不下，这与经济疲软将是暂时的观点一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addcaef8407fdc8cf9f4efb87956bf0d\" tg-width=\"1258\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.</p><p><blockquote>我们将关注这些指标的弹性，因为9月份报告的8月份数据可能看起来不佳，并测试市场的决心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于2021年最重要故事的中心</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于2021年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 20:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><u><b>Commodities Tie the Year Together</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>大宗商品将一年联系在一起</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply</b>. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation. Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.</p><p><blockquote><b>对于许多投资者来说，2021年是比总体指数所暗示的更艰难的一年</b>今年，“ESG”和“量化”仍然是投资界的关键结构性趋势。在过去的一年里，关于增长和通胀前景的辩论几乎持续不断。碰巧的是，大宗商品发现自己处于所有这些故事的中心。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s start with the challenging year. <b>The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.</b></p><p><blockquote>让我们从充满挑战的一年开始。<b>不经意的观察者认为2021年是在公园散步，截至9月1日，全球股市回报率为16%，波动性处于历史低位，这是情有可原的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>But under the surface, it’s been hard</b>. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote><b>但在表面之下，这很难</b>.在像美国股市这样的“良好”市场中，这很难，因为主要的轮动导致相对表现大幅波动（美国小盘股截至3月中旬上涨了+20%，此后一直走低）。全球股市也很艰难，自2月14日以来，MSCI中国股市下跌了26%，而MSCI欧洲股市同期上涨了14%。许多主动型基金经理落后于他们的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Yet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从数量上看，今年在利率和外汇方面可能会更加艰难。我们运行跨资产系统交易工具（CAST），旨在确定哪些因素对跨资产表现至关重要，并根据这些因素在给定时刻的表现进行系统投资。CAST问“如果我做了市场上历史上有效的事情，给定当前的信息，我应该做什么？”.</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes. Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，与所有其他资产类别相比，遵循这些历史模式导致利率和外汇表现较差。历史模式在哪里做得更好？商品。好多了。</blockquote></p><p> Investing systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:</p><p><blockquote>基于有吸引力的因素（利差、动量、估值、支持性基本面）进行系统投资，在大宗商品中的效果比任何其他资产类别都好（信贷位居第二）。为什么？我们有几种理论：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Natural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>商品市场的自然低效率会产生风险溢价。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>The tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.</p><p><blockquote><li>大宗商品在更长周期内波动的趋势意味着动量更有效。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li><b>Central banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.</b></p><p><blockquote><li><b>各国央行没有干预这些市场（投资者流量也更加平静），从而允许更多“正常”的动态发挥作用。</b></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Given the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于量化和系统投资作为投资管理主题的突出地位，这一点非常重要。尽你所能，去这些类型的策略有效的地方。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG. The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品还与第二大投资主题ESG相关。气候变化的潜在现实和严重性保持不变，事实上，在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布报告后，看起来更加紧迫。然而，尽管ESG相关股票在2021年出现了明显波动，但大宗商品市场却传递了更加一致的信息。</blockquote></p><p> The price for EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>例如，欧盟碳排放价格(MO1 Comdty)今年迄今已上涨88%。我的同事罗伯特·普林(Robert Pulleyn)一直看好这样一种信念，即更高的排放价格对于实现欧盟的气候目标至关重要。从短期来看，鉴于最近的上涨，他认为价格在2027年恢复上涨趋势至€102/吨之前存在下跌风险（参见公用事业：碳：未来的疲软风险？在3月恢复上涨之前，2021年8月9日）。</blockquote></p><p> Wait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>等等，你可能会说。如果大宗商品市场如此关注气候变化的现实，为什么今年油价会上涨而不是下跌？同样，我们认为市场实际上是相当理性的。股东压力和未来电动汽车采用的威胁正在导致石油生产商大幅减少资本支出计划，我的同事Martijn Rats认为这一发展将有助于限制供应并保持价格高位（参见播客|市场思考：挪威的奇怪案例，电动汽车和石油，2021年9月2日）。</blockquote></p><p> ESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?</p><p><blockquote>ESG和系统性投资是主要的行业主题。我们都知道，2021年将比总体指数显示的更加困难。但今年最大的新闻是围绕增长和通胀的辩论。公平地说，大宗商品对此有何看法？</blockquote></p><p> While commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,<b>recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022</b>.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大宗商品价格通常是通货膨胀的同义词，但我们的预测表明，它们现在发挥的作用将较小。价格最大的下行风险可能来自核心商品（需求远高于趋势），而最大的上行风险可能来自租金增长（在篮子中占很大份额，而且强劲）。尽管如此，<b>近期大宗商品价格的企稳应该会强化总体通胀的暂时性，我们的经济学家预计通胀将在2022年中期放缓</b>.</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.<b>Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the US and China</b>(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在增长辩论中，大宗商品是前沿和中心。<b>我们的经济学家预计美国和中国第三季度经济都会放缓</b>（但不是欧洲，这是另一个时间的故事）。铜价和CRB RIND指数这两个周期性走强的关键先兆仍然居高不下，这与经济疲软将是暂时的观点一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addcaef8407fdc8cf9f4efb87956bf0d\" tg-width=\"1258\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.</p><p><blockquote>我们将关注这些指标的弹性，因为9月份报告的8月份数据可能看起来不佳，并测试市场的决心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-commodities-find-themselves-center-all-2021s-most-important-stories\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-commodities-find-themselves-center-all-2021s-most-important-stories","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183504703","content_text":"Commodities Tie the Year Together\n2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation. Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.\nLet’s start with the challenging year. The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.\nBut under the surface, it’s been hard. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.\nYet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.\nYear-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes. Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.\nInvesting systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:\n\nNatural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.\nThe tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.\nCentral banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.\n\nGiven the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.\nCommodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG. The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.\nThe price for EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).\nWait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).\nESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?\nWhile commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022.\nOn the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the US and China(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.\n\nWe’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817204674,"gmtCreate":1630965750398,"gmtModify":1631891649793,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817204674","repostId":"1143325200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143325200","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630882610,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143325200?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 06:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143325200","media":"Barrons","summary":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then feat","content":"<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债市周一因劳动节休市。假期缩短的一周将发布几个值得注意的公司更新和经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica将于周三发布季度业绩，国际纸业将于周四发布季度业绩，克罗格将于周五发布季度业绩。Analog Devices刚刚以210亿美元收购Maxim Integrated Products，将于周三举办投资者日。Moderna、丹纳赫和家得宝管理层也将于周四与投资者交谈。最后，雅宝将于周五举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p><p><blockquote>本周的经济数据亮点将是周五美国劳工统计局公布的8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家的普遍预期是总体指数月度上涨0.6%，核心PPI上涨0.5%——这还不包括波动更大的食品和能源价格。7月份核心指数和整体指数均上涨1%。8月份消费者价格指数将于下周9月14日公布。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，美联储将发布最新的褐皮书，其中包含十几个中央银行区的经济、招聘和商业状况的最新信息。欧洲央行也将于周四宣布货币政策决定，但市场普遍预计将把目标利率维持在目前负0.5%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/6</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote>股票和固定收益市场因劳动节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey’s General Stores和Coupa Software公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>ADI公司召开电话会议，讨论其资本配置计划并更新2021财年展望。该公司最近完成了对Maxim Integrated Products的210亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际和ResMed举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote>劳工统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，有1010万个职位空缺，连续第四个月创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote>美联储公布7月份消费者信贷数据。6月份未偿消费者债务总额增加377亿美元，达到创纪录的4.32万亿美元。第二季度，消费信贷经季节调整后的年率增长8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今年八次发布褐皮书中的第六次。该报告总结了12个美联储地区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝召开电话会议讨论其ESG战略，由公司首席可持续发展官Ron Jarvis主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司在研疫苗。首席执行官Stéphane Bancel将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由首席执行官Rainer Blair主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、同步金融和威利斯韬睿惠悦举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲中央银行宣布其货币政策决定。预计欧洲央行将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至9月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8月份，平均每周申请失业救济人数为35.5万人，为疫情爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦强化失业救济金额外发放300美元的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/10</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS报告8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心生产者价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）月度上涨0.6%，核心生产者价格指数将上涨0.5%。7月份两者均上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 06:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债市周一因劳动节休市。假期缩短的一周将发布几个值得注意的公司更新和经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica将于周三发布季度业绩，国际纸业将于周四发布季度业绩，克罗格将于周五发布季度业绩。Analog Devices刚刚以210亿美元收购Maxim Integrated Products，将于周三举办投资者日。Moderna、丹纳赫和家得宝管理层也将于周四与投资者交谈。最后，雅宝将于周五举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p><p><blockquote>本周的经济数据亮点将是周五美国劳工统计局公布的8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家的普遍预期是总体指数月度上涨0.6%，核心PPI上涨0.5%——这还不包括波动更大的食品和能源价格。7月份核心指数和整体指数均上涨1%。8月份消费者价格指数将于下周9月14日公布。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，美联储将发布最新的褐皮书，其中包含十几个中央银行区的经济、招聘和商业状况的最新信息。欧洲央行也将于周四宣布货币政策决定，但市场普遍预计将把目标利率维持在目前负0.5%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/6</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote>股票和固定收益市场因劳动节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey’s General Stores和Coupa Software公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>ADI公司召开电话会议，讨论其资本配置计划并更新2021财年展望。该公司最近完成了对Maxim Integrated Products的210亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际和ResMed举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote>劳工统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，有1010万个职位空缺，连续第四个月创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote>美联储公布7月份消费者信贷数据。6月份未偿消费者债务总额增加377亿美元，达到创纪录的4.32万亿美元。第二季度，消费信贷经季节调整后的年率增长8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今年八次发布褐皮书中的第六次。该报告总结了12个美联储地区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝召开电话会议讨论其ESG战略，由公司首席可持续发展官Ron Jarvis主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司在研疫苗。首席执行官Stéphane Bancel将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由首席执行官Rainer Blair主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、同步金融和威利斯韬睿惠悦举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲中央银行宣布其货币政策决定。预计欧洲央行将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至9月4日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8月份，平均每周申请失业救济人数为35.5万人，为疫情爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦强化失业救济金额外发放300美元的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/10</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS报告8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心生产者价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）月度上涨0.6%，核心生产者价格指数将上涨0.5%。7月份两者均上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论收益。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HD":"家得宝",".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站","KR":"克罗格",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143325200","content_text":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.\nGameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.\nThe economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.\nOn Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.\nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"KR":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GME":0.9,"HD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817204160,"gmtCreate":1630965730550,"gmtModify":1631891649799,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817204160","repostId":"1158349328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158349328","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630913486,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158349328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么2021年是消除9月股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158349328","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like","content":"<p>Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，9月份股市表现不佳。但在2021年这样的年份，情况可能不一定如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1928, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>自1928年以来，标普500 9月份的平均回报率为0.99%。这使得本月比5月份要糟糕得多，5月份在投资者悲观情绪中排名第二，平均跌幅为0.11%。但这里有一个警告。历史还发现，今年早些时候强劲上涨后的9月份往往会有正回报。根据Fundstrat的数据，当标普500在前六个月上涨超过13%时，自1928年以来9月份的涨幅中位数为1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Over that 93-year span, the S&P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&P 500 rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>在这93年的时间里，标准普尔指数在9月份下跌了54%。但当市场从1月到6月上涨时，63%的9月份出现了正收益。截至今年6月，标普500上涨了14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b7962b08fe42d27d182d586cf20e4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.</p><p><blockquote>类似的趋势也适用于这一年。富国银行的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至较当前价格上涨6%以上的水平。他们利用1990年的数据表示，在标普指数前八个月出现两位数百分比涨幅的年份，年底又会上涨8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23718a745d8c03556be0411afdf1af64\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The S&P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收于4523点，以今年迄今20.4%的涨幅结束8月份。但请注意一件事：旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度从未超过5%。随着德尔塔变异毒株、通货膨胀、高估值，甚至公司税增加等风险的出现，股市很容易调整。Fundstrat研究主管汤姆·李(Tom Lee)写道：“市场‘超买’，即将回调。”也许吧，但如果这个市场逆着九月的忧郁，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week </b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/6</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock and fixed-income</b> markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票和固定收益</b>市场因劳动节而关闭。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey’s General Stores和Coupa Software公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>ADI公司召开电话会议，讨论其资本配置计划并更新2021财年展望。该公司最近完成了对Maxim Integrated Products的210亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际和ResMed举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b> Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，有1010万个职位空缺，连续第四个月创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>报告7月份消费者信贷数据。6月份未偿消费者债务总额增加377亿美元，达到创纪录的4.32万亿美元。第二季度，消费信贷经季节调整后的年率增长8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>今年八次发布褐皮书中的第六次。该报告总结了12个美联储地区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝召开电话会议讨论其ESG战略，由公司首席可持续发展官Ron Jarvis主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司在研疫苗。首席执行官Stéphane Bancel将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由首席执行官Rainer Blair主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、同步金融和威利斯韬睿惠悦举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The European Central</b> Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲中部</b>银行宣布其货币政策决定。预计欧洲央行将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至9月4日当周首次申请失业救济人数。8月份，平均每周申请失业救济人数为35.5万人，为疫情爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦强化失业救济金额外发放300美元的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/10</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b>the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心生产者价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）月度上涨0.6%，核心生产者价格指数将上涨0.5%。7月份两者均上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings. Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论收益。Albemarle和Bio-Techne举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么2021年是消除9月股市忧郁的一年</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么2021年是消除9月股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，9月份股市表现不佳。但在2021年这样的年份，情况可能不一定如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1928, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>自1928年以来，标普500 9月份的平均回报率为0.99%。这使得本月比5月份要糟糕得多，5月份在投资者悲观情绪中排名第二，平均跌幅为0.11%。但这里有一个警告。历史还发现，今年早些时候强劲上涨后的9月份往往会有正回报。根据Fundstrat的数据，当标普500在前六个月上涨超过13%时，自1928年以来9月份的涨幅中位数为1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Over that 93-year span, the S&P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&P 500 rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>在这93年的时间里，标准普尔指数在9月份下跌了54%。但当市场从1月到6月上涨时，63%的9月份出现了正收益。截至今年6月，标普500上涨了14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b7962b08fe42d27d182d586cf20e4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.</p><p><blockquote>类似的趋势也适用于这一年。富国银行的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至较当前价格上涨6%以上的水平。他们利用1990年的数据表示，在标普指数前八个月出现两位数百分比涨幅的年份，年底又会上涨8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23718a745d8c03556be0411afdf1af64\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The S&P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收于4523点，以今年迄今20.4%的涨幅结束8月份。但请注意一件事：旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度从未超过5%。随着德尔塔变异毒株、通货膨胀、高估值，甚至公司税增加等风险的出现，股市很容易调整。Fundstrat研究主管汤姆·李(Tom Lee)写道：“市场‘超买’，即将回调。”也许吧，但如果这个市场逆着九月的忧郁，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This Week </b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一9/6</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock and fixed-income</b> markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票和固定收益</b>市场因劳动节而关闭。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey’s General Stores和Coupa Software公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>ADI公司召开电话会议，讨论其资本配置计划并更新2021财年展望。该公司最近完成了对Maxim Integrated Products的210亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际和ResMed举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b> Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，有1010万个职位空缺，连续第四个月创下纪录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>报告7月份消费者信贷数据。6月份未偿消费者债务总额增加377亿美元，达到创纪录的4.32万亿美元。第二季度，消费信贷经季节调整后的年率增长8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>今年八次发布褐皮书中的第六次。该报告总结了12个美联储地区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝召开电话会议讨论其ESG战略，由公司首席可持续发展官Ron Jarvis主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司在研疫苗。首席执行官Stéphane Bancel将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由首席执行官Rainer Blair主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、同步金融和威利斯韬睿惠悦举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The European Central</b> Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲中部</b>银行宣布其货币政策决定。预计欧洲央行将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至9月4日当周首次申请失业救济人数。8月份，平均每周申请失业救济人数为35.5万人，为疫情爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦强化失业救济金额外发放300美元的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五9/10</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b>the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心生产者价格指数（不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格）月度上涨0.6%，核心生产者价格指数将上涨0.5%。7月份两者均上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings. Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论收益。Albemarle和Bio-Techne举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/september-stock-market-outlook-51630703979?mod=markets\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/september-stock-market-outlook-51630703979?mod=markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158349328","content_text":"Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.\nSince 1928, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.\nOver that 93-year span, the S&P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&P 500 rallied 14%.\nA similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.\nThis Week \nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reportsthe producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings. Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2034,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817204982,"gmtCreate":1630965710946,"gmtModify":1631891649797,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817204982","repostId":"1121396906","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}