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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-12-21
$TSLA(TSLA)$
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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-10-25
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
他们回来了
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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-04-04
Hoping for the best
How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>
You may not like the answer. For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b
How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>
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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-04-04
That is nice
U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>
(April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic grow
U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>
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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-03-31
🤪🤪🤙🏼🤙🏼🤙🏼
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-03-31
Get better soon..
Global chip shortage could cost automakers 1.3M production vehicles in Q2<blockquote>全球芯片短缺可能导致汽车制造商第二季度损失130万辆量产车</blockquote>
A recent winter storm in Texas and fire at a Renesas (OTCPK:RNECF,OTCPK:RNECY) chip fab have left Q2
Global chip shortage could cost automakers 1.3M production vehicles in Q2<blockquote>全球芯片短缺可能导致汽车制造商第二季度损失130万辆量产车</blockquote>
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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-03-30
Thoughts?l on this?
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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-03-29
Great!
ARK Innovation Fund Has Reshuffled Its Holdings. What That Means for Investors<blockquote>方舟创新基金进行了持仓洗牌。这对投资者意味着什么</blockquote>
Pretty much everything changed in 2020—some things more than others.The ARK Innovation exchange-trad
ARK Innovation Fund Has Reshuffled Its Holdings. What That Means for Investors<blockquote>方舟创新基金进行了持仓洗牌。这对投资者意味着什么</blockquote>
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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-03-29
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$
Hold on
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JTROMEO
JTROMEO
·
2021-03-28
Potential?
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$TSLA(TSLA)$</a>100","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$TSLA(TSLA)$</a>100","text":"$TSLA(TSLA)$100","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/844cd0488fffd2158fe6879bd6cf0425","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691040104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856689288,"gmtCreate":1635173297670,"gmtModify":1635173297774,"author":{"id":"3571546824730665","authorId":"3571546824730665","name":"JTROMEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa5a6831351c945a620caefdd96646e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571546824730665","idStr":"3571546824730665"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>他们回来了","listText":"<a 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best","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349044104","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p> You may not like the answer. For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> You may not like the answer. For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":349044030,"gmtCreate":1617510553820,"gmtModify":1634520706926,"author":{"id":"3571546824730665","authorId":"3571546824730665","name":"JTROMEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa5a6831351c945a620caefdd96646e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571546824730665","idStr":"3571546824730665"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That is nice ","listText":"That is nice ","text":"That is nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/349044030","repostId":"1176602902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176602902","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617366683,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176602902?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176602902","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic grow","content":"<p>(April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort pushed companies to step up hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.</p><p><blockquote>（4月2日）美国劳工部周五报告称，由于强劲的经济增长和积极的疫苗接种工作推动企业加大招聘力度，3月份就业增长以去年夏天以来的最快速度增长。</blockquote></p><p>Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6%.</p><p><blockquote>当月非农就业人数增加91.6万人，失业率降至6%。</blockquote></p><p>Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.</p><p><blockquote>接受道琼斯调查的经济学家一直预计增加675,000人，失业率为6%。</blockquote></p><p>The report comes amid a slew of other indicators pointing to stronger growth as the U.S. tries to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. States and municipalities across the country continue to reopen after a year of operating at reduced capacity.</p><p><blockquote>该报告发布之际，一系列其他指标表明，随着美国试图摆脱Covid-19大流行的影响，经济增长将更加强劲。在经历了一年的产能减少后，全国各地的州和市继续重新开放。</blockquote></p><p>Business activity has returned to close to normal levels in much of the company despite the restrictions, with a tracker by Jeffries indicating that activity is at 93.5% of its pre-pandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管受到限制，该公司大部分地区的业务活动已恢复到接近正常水平，Jeffries的跟踪显示，业务活动为大流行前水平的93.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Data from Homebase shows that employees working and hours worked both gained sharply over the past month, with significant improvements in both hospitality and entertainment. Those have been the hardest-hit sectors, but have improved over the past two months as governments have loosened up on some of the harshest restrictions on activity.</p><p><blockquote>Homebase的数据显示，过去一个月，员工的工作时间和工作时间都大幅增加，接待和娱乐方面都有显着改善。这些是受打击最严重的行业，但随着政府放松了一些最严厉的活动限制，过去两个月有所改善。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, manufacturing is enjoying a boom, with an Institute for Supply Management gauge of activity in the sector hitting its highest level since late 1983 in March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，制造业正在蓬勃发展，供应管理协会对该行业活动的衡量在3月份达到了1983年底以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The pace of gains combined with the unprecedented level of government stimulus has kindled worries about inflation, though Federal Reserve officials say any increases will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员表示，任何加息都将是暂时的，但加息速度加上政府前所未有的刺激措施引发了人们对通胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keeping a close eye on the jobs data, but policymakers have said repeatedly that even with the recent improvements the labor market is nowhere near a point that would push the central bank into raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在密切关注就业数据，但政策制定者一再表示，即使最近有所改善，劳动力市场也远未达到推动央行加息的程度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-02 20:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort pushed companies to step up hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.</p><p><blockquote>（4月2日）美国劳工部周五报告称，由于强劲的经济增长和积极的疫苗接种工作推动企业加大招聘力度，3月份就业增长以去年夏天以来的最快速度增长。</blockquote></p><p>Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6%.</p><p><blockquote>当月非农就业人数增加91.6万人，失业率降至6%。</blockquote></p><p>Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.</p><p><blockquote>接受道琼斯调查的经济学家一直预计增加675,000人，失业率为6%。</blockquote></p><p>The report comes amid a slew of other indicators pointing to stronger growth as the U.S. tries to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. States and municipalities across the country continue to reopen after a year of operating at reduced capacity.</p><p><blockquote>该报告发布之际，一系列其他指标表明，随着美国试图摆脱Covid-19大流行的影响，经济增长将更加强劲。在经历了一年的产能减少后，全国各地的州和市继续重新开放。</blockquote></p><p>Business activity has returned to close to normal levels in much of the company despite the restrictions, with a tracker by Jeffries indicating that activity is at 93.5% of its pre-pandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管受到限制，该公司大部分地区的业务活动已恢复到接近正常水平，Jeffries的跟踪显示，业务活动为大流行前水平的93.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Data from Homebase shows that employees working and hours worked both gained sharply over the past month, with significant improvements in both hospitality and entertainment. Those have been the hardest-hit sectors, but have improved over the past two months as governments have loosened up on some of the harshest restrictions on activity.</p><p><blockquote>Homebase的数据显示，过去一个月，员工的工作时间和工作时间都大幅增加，接待和娱乐方面都有显着改善。这些是受打击最严重的行业，但随着政府放松了一些最严厉的活动限制，过去两个月有所改善。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, manufacturing is enjoying a boom, with an Institute for Supply Management gauge of activity in the sector hitting its highest level since late 1983 in March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，制造业正在蓬勃发展，供应管理协会对该行业活动的衡量在3月份达到了1983年底以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The pace of gains combined with the unprecedented level of government stimulus has kindled worries about inflation, though Federal Reserve officials say any increases will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员表示，任何加息都将是暂时的，但加息速度加上政府前所未有的刺激措施引发了人们对通胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keeping a close eye on the jobs data, but policymakers have said repeatedly that even with the recent improvements the labor market is nowhere near a point that would push the central bank into raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在密切关注就业数据，但政策制定者一再表示，即使最近有所改善，劳动力市场也远未达到推动央行加息的程度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176602902","content_text":"(April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort pushed companies to step up hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6%.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.The report comes amid a slew of other indicators pointing to stronger growth as the U.S. tries to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. States and municipalities across the country continue to reopen after a year of operating at reduced capacity.Business activity has returned to close to normal levels in much of the company despite the restrictions, with a tracker by Jeffries indicating that activity is at 93.5% of its pre-pandemic level.Data from Homebase shows that employees working and hours worked both gained sharply over the past month, with significant improvements in both hospitality and entertainment. Those have been the hardest-hit sectors, but have improved over the past two months as governments have loosened up on some of the harshest restrictions on activity.At the same time, manufacturing is enjoying a boom, with an Institute for Supply Management gauge of activity in the sector hitting its highest level since late 1983 in March.The pace of gains combined with the unprecedented level of government stimulus has kindled worries about inflation, though Federal Reserve officials say any increases will be temporary.The Fed is keeping a close eye on the jobs data, but policymakers have said repeatedly that even with the recent improvements the labor market is nowhere near a point that would push the central bank into raising interest rates.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357096942,"gmtCreate":1617205457286,"gmtModify":1634522045226,"author":{"id":"3571546824730665","authorId":"3571546824730665","name":"JTROMEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa5a6831351c945a620caefdd96646e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571546824730665","idStr":"3571546824730665"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🤪🤪🤙🏼🤙🏼🤙🏼","listText":"🤪🤪🤙🏼🤙🏼🤙🏼","text":"🤪🤪🤙🏼🤙🏼🤙🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357096942","repostId":"2123327327","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357098775,"gmtCreate":1617205442997,"gmtModify":1634522045347,"author":{"id":"3571546824730665","authorId":"3571546824730665","name":"JTROMEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa5a6831351c945a620caefdd96646e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571546824730665","idStr":"3571546824730665"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Get better soon..","listText":"Get better soon..","text":"Get better soon..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357098775","repostId":"1121324187","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121324187","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617203600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121324187?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-31 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Global chip shortage could cost automakers 1.3M production vehicles in Q2<blockquote>全球芯片短缺可能导致汽车制造商第二季度损失130万辆量产车</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121324187","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"A recent winter storm in Texas and fire at a Renesas (OTCPK:RNECF,OTCPK:RNECY) chip fab have left Q2","content":"<p>A recent winter storm in Texas and fire at a Renesas (OTCPK:RNECF,OTCPK:RNECY) chip fab have left Q2 automotive output \"asexposed\" to the global chip quarter as Q1, according toIHS Markit. Semi supplies might not stabilize until Q4.</p><p><blockquote>根据IHS Markit的数据，最近德克萨斯州的冬季风暴和瑞萨（OTCPK：RNECF，OTCPK：RNECY）芯片工厂的火灾导致第二季度汽车产量与第一季度一样“暴露”在全球芯片季度中。半成品供应可能要到第四季度才能稳定下来。</blockquote></p><p> The shortage could cost automakers 1.3M production vehicles during the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这种短缺可能会使汽车制造商在第二季度损失130万辆量产车。</blockquote></p><p> Early last month, IHS Markit said the shortage could impact 672,000 light vehicle production units in Q1, and predicted that the chip shortage wouldstretch until Q3.</p><p><blockquote>上月初，IHS Markit表示，芯片短缺可能会影响第一季度672,000辆轻型汽车产量，并预测芯片短缺将持续到第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry giant TSMC(TSM+1.9%) and semiconductor equipment makers Lam Research(LRCX+3.6%), Applied Materials(AMAT+4.4%), and KLA (KLAC+3.4%) are all trading up. Lam reports earnings after the bell today.</p><p><blockquote>代工巨头台积电(TSM+1.9%)和半导体设备制造商泛林研究(LRCX+3.6%)、应用材料(AMAT+4.4%)和KLA(KLAC+3.4%)均上涨。林郑月娥今天盘后公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Auto chip supplier stocks in the green include Texas Instruments(TXN+1.2%), ON Semi(ON+2.7%), and STMicroelectronics(STM+2.2%).</p><p><blockquote>绿色的汽车芯片供应商股票包括德州仪器(TXN+1.2%)、安森美(ON+2.7%)和意法半导体(STM+2.2%)。</blockquote></p><p> Yesterday, Renesas said it would likely take up to three months to return to pre-fire production levels at the affected fab.</p><p><blockquote>昨天，瑞萨表示，受影响工厂可能需要长达三个月的时间才能恢复到火灾前的生产水平。</blockquote></p><p> Samsung's foundry said its operations in Austin, which were paused last month during a weather-related power outage, have returned to nearly normal levels.</p><p><blockquote>三星代工厂表示，其在奥斯汀的运营上个月因天气原因停电而暂停，现已恢复到接近正常水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global chip shortage could cost automakers 1.3M production vehicles in Q2<blockquote>全球芯片短缺可能导致汽车制造商第二季度损失130万辆量产车</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal chip shortage could cost automakers 1.3M production vehicles in Q2<blockquote>全球芯片短缺可能导致汽车制造商第二季度损失130万辆量产车</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-31 23:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A recent winter storm in Texas and fire at a Renesas (OTCPK:RNECF,OTCPK:RNECY) chip fab have left Q2 automotive output \"asexposed\" to the global chip quarter as Q1, according toIHS Markit. Semi supplies might not stabilize until Q4.</p><p><blockquote>根据IHS Markit的数据，最近德克萨斯州的冬季风暴和瑞萨（OTCPK：RNECF，OTCPK：RNECY）芯片工厂的火灾导致第二季度汽车产量与第一季度一样“暴露”在全球芯片季度中。半成品供应可能要到第四季度才能稳定下来。</blockquote></p><p> The shortage could cost automakers 1.3M production vehicles during the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>这种短缺可能会使汽车制造商在第二季度损失130万辆量产车。</blockquote></p><p> Early last month, IHS Markit said the shortage could impact 672,000 light vehicle production units in Q1, and predicted that the chip shortage wouldstretch until Q3.</p><p><blockquote>上月初，IHS Markit表示，芯片短缺可能会影响第一季度672,000辆轻型汽车产量，并预测芯片短缺将持续到第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> Foundry giant TSMC(TSM+1.9%) and semiconductor equipment makers Lam Research(LRCX+3.6%), Applied Materials(AMAT+4.4%), and KLA (KLAC+3.4%) are all trading up. Lam reports earnings after the bell today.</p><p><blockquote>代工巨头台积电(TSM+1.9%)和半导体设备制造商泛林研究(LRCX+3.6%)、应用材料(AMAT+4.4%)和KLA(KLAC+3.4%)均上涨。林郑月娥今天盘后公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Auto chip supplier stocks in the green include Texas Instruments(TXN+1.2%), ON Semi(ON+2.7%), and STMicroelectronics(STM+2.2%).</p><p><blockquote>绿色的汽车芯片供应商股票包括德州仪器(TXN+1.2%)、安森美(ON+2.7%)和意法半导体(STM+2.2%)。</blockquote></p><p> Yesterday, Renesas said it would likely take up to three months to return to pre-fire production levels at the affected fab.</p><p><blockquote>昨天，瑞萨表示，受影响工厂可能需要长达三个月的时间才能恢复到火灾前的生产水平。</blockquote></p><p> Samsung's foundry said its operations in Austin, which were paused last month during a weather-related power outage, have returned to nearly normal levels.</p><p><blockquote>三星代工厂表示，其在奥斯汀的运营上个月因天气原因停电而暂停，现已恢复到接近正常水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678125-global-chip-shortage-could-cost-automakers-13m-production-vehicles-in-q2\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11fb5ef0b1cb032e12ea701b85e5650d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3678125-global-chip-shortage-could-cost-automakers-13m-production-vehicles-in-q2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121324187","content_text":"A recent winter storm in Texas and fire at a Renesas (OTCPK:RNECF,OTCPK:RNECY) chip fab have left Q2 automotive output \"asexposed\" to the global chip quarter as Q1, according toIHS Markit. Semi supplies might not stabilize until Q4.\nThe shortage could cost automakers 1.3M production vehicles during the second quarter.\nEarly last month, IHS Markit said the shortage could impact 672,000 light vehicle production units in Q1, and predicted that the chip shortage wouldstretch until Q3.\nFoundry giant TSMC(TSM+1.9%) and semiconductor equipment makers Lam Research(LRCX+3.6%), Applied Materials(AMAT+4.4%), and KLA (KLAC+3.4%) are all trading up. Lam reports earnings after the bell today.\nAuto chip supplier stocks in the green include Texas Instruments(TXN+1.2%), ON Semi(ON+2.7%), and STMicroelectronics(STM+2.2%).\nYesterday, Renesas said it would likely take up to three months to return to pre-fire production levels at the affected fab.\nSamsung's foundry said its operations in Austin, which were paused last month during a weather-related power outage, have returned to nearly normal levels.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":354048875,"gmtCreate":1617114422197,"gmtModify":1634522576468,"author":{"id":"3571546824730665","authorId":"3571546824730665","name":"JTROMEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa5a6831351c945a620caefdd96646e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571546824730665","idStr":"3571546824730665"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thoughts?l on this? ","listText":"Thoughts?l on this? ","text":"Thoughts?l on this?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80e6f7b7519c0596c9f083ae200e56a3","width":"1125","height":"2537"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/354048875","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355369047,"gmtCreate":1617029077689,"gmtModify":1634523027790,"author":{"id":"3571546824730665","authorId":"3571546824730665","name":"JTROMEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa5a6831351c945a620caefdd96646e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571546824730665","idStr":"3571546824730665"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355369047","repostId":"1192930137","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192930137","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617021734,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192930137?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-29 20:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ARK Innovation Fund Has Reshuffled Its Holdings. What That Means for Investors<blockquote>方舟创新基金进行了持仓洗牌。这对投资者意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192930137","media":"Barron's","summary":"Pretty much everything changed in 2020—some things more than others.The ARK Innovation exchange-trad","content":"<p>Pretty much everything changed in 2020—some things more than others.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，几乎所有事情都发生了变化——有些事情比其他事情变化更大。</blockquote></p><p>The ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund (ticker: ARKK) went from a somewhat sleepy actively managed fund that returned 36% in 2019, to the top performer in 2020, returning 153% and making its manager,ARK Investment founder Cathie Wood, a household name. But ARK Innovation ishaving a rough 2021: After rising another 26% by mid-February, the $22 billion ETF has tumbled over the past six weeks, and is now down 9% year to date. Investors need to understand the dramatic portfolio changes that have occurred in the past year to see what they own and determine the fund’s role in their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>ARK Innovation交易所交易基金（股票代码：ARKK）从2019年回报率为36%的有点沉睡的主动管理基金，成为2020年表现最好的基金，回报率为153%，使其经理、ARK Investment创始人Cathie Wood成为家喻户晓的名字。但ARK Innovation 2021年的日子很艰难：这只价值220亿美元的ETF在2月中旬又上涨26%后，在过去六周内暴跌，今年迄今已下跌9%。投资者需要了解过去一年发生的巨大投资组合变化，以了解他们拥有什么并确定基金在其投资组合中的作用。</blockquote></p><p>For starters: A year ago, ARK Innovation was a small-company fund. Today, it’s solidly mid-cap, with 51% of its assets in large-company stocks. The average market cap of its holdings has increased from $5 billion last March to $39 billion by the end of February. That, in large part, is due to how much many holdings have run up. Notably, top holdingTesla(TSLA) has returned 500% in the past year even after the recent pullback.</p><p><blockquote>首先：一年前，方舟创新还是一只小公司基金。如今，它已成为稳定的中型股，51%的资产投资于大公司股票。其持有的平均市值已从去年3月的50亿美元增至2月底的390亿美元。这在很大程度上是由于持有量增加了多少。值得注意的是，即使在最近的回调之后，顶级控股特斯拉(TSLA)在过去一年中的回报率仍为500%。</blockquote></p><p>Many active funds have limitations on the size of companies they can buy and continue to own. ARK Innovation doesn’t have such constraints. It’s open to stocks up and down the capitalization spectrum—from the $594 billion Tesla to the $1 billionCerus(CERS). “We don’t really look at market caps. We are pretty agnostic to that,” says Ren Leggi, ARK’s client portfolio manager. “We’re looking at where innovation takes us.”</p><p><blockquote>许多主动型基金对其可以购买和继续拥有的公司规模都有限制。方舟创新没有这样的约束。它向市值范围内上下波动的股票开放——从5,940亿美元的特斯拉到10亿美元的Cerus(CERS)。ARK的客户投资组合经理Ren Leggi表示：“我们并不真正关注市值。我们对此非常不可知。”“我们正在研究创新将带我们走向何方。”</blockquote></p><p>The growth of its existing holdings only partially explains the fund’s tilt toward larger stocks. Over the past few months, ARK Innovation has also been selling shares in smaller-cap firms, many in biotech, includingOrganovo Holdings(ONVO),Seres Therapeutics(MCRB), Compugen(CGEN), andEditas Medicine(EDIT).</p><p><blockquote>其现有持股的增长只能部分解释该基金倾向于大型股票的原因。在过去的几个月里，ARK Innovation还一直在出售小型公司的股票，其中许多是生物技术公司，包括Organovo Holdings(ONVO)、Seres Therapeutics(MCRB)、Compugen(CGEN)和Editas Medicine(EDIT)。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, the fund has added a significant amount of large-cap internet stocks likePayPal Holdings(PYPL), Shopify(SHOP),Zoom Video Communications(ZM); and foreign firms such as Tencent Holdings(TCEHY), Baidu(BIDU),Sea(SE), and Nintendo(NTDOY). The ETF owned none of those names last July.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该基金增持了大量大型互联网股票，如PayPal Holdings(PYPL)、Shopify(SHOP)、Zoom Video通信(ZM)；以及腾讯控股控股(TCEHY)、百度(BIDU)、Sea(SE)和任天堂(NTDOY)等外国公司。去年7月，该ETF没有拥有这些名字。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1bf566255ea478e6111c62695a5ade\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The recent trading has shifted ARK Innovation’s sector composition as well. In March 2020, biotech and diagnostics were the largest industries in the fund, making up 22% and 15% of the portfolio, respectively. By the end of February, biotech only made up 14%, and diagnostics, 8%.</p><p><blockquote>最近的交易也改变了方舟创新的行业构成。2020年3月，生物技术和诊断是该基金最大的行业，分别占投资组合的22%和15%。截至2月底，生物技术仅占14%，诊断技术仅占8%。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, ARK Innovation has increased assets in internet and software stocks—from 6% of each in March 2020, to 15% and 9% as of February. Shopify, which wasn’t in ARK Innovation as of last October, is now the eighth-largest stock in the fund with a 3.1% weight.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，方舟创新增加了互联网和软件股票的资产——从2020年3月各占6%，增加到2月份的15%和9%。截至去年10月，Shopify尚未纳入ARK Innovation，但现在是该基金第八大股票，权重为3.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Still, compared to its peers in the mid-cap growth category, ARK Innovation is relatively heavy on healthcare and light on technology, says Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist at Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司投资组合策略师艾米·阿诺特(Amy Arnott)表示，尽管如此，与中型成长类同行相比，方舟创新相对偏重医疗保健，轻科技。</blockquote></p><p>Some suspect the shift toward bigger companies is the result of ARK Innovation’s unprecedented growth. The fund attracted $16 billion in new assets in the past year. If that money was invested in smaller companies, it couldquickly bump up ARK’s stakein them to perilous levels. From that perspective, putting that money in more liquid large-cap stocks seems a safer option. “The bigger they get, the more difficult it is for them to establish meaningful positions in smaller-cap stocks,” Arnott says.</p><p><blockquote>一些人怀疑向大公司的转变是方舟创新前所未有的增长的结果。该基金在过去一年吸引了160亿美元的新资产。如果这笔钱投资于规模较小的公司，方舟在这些公司的股份可能会迅速增加到危险的水平。从这个角度来看，将资金投入流动性更强的大盘股似乎是一个更安全的选择。“他们的规模越大，就越难在小盘股中建立有意义的头寸，”阿诺特说。</blockquote></p><p>ARK denies that recent trading decisions have anything to do with capacity, saying those moves are driven by conviction, valuation, and tactical considerations. For example, ARK Innovation exited DNA sequencing firmIllumina(ILMN)—once its second-largest holding behind Tesla—and added rivalPacific Biosciences of California(PACB), because it sees a shift of disruption from short-read to long-read genomic sequencing, says Leggi. It sold other names because they’d become too expensive compared to peers.</p><p><blockquote>ARK否认最近的交易决策与产能有任何关系，称这些举措是由信念、估值和战术考虑驱动的。例如，ARK Innovation退出了DNA测序公司Millumina(ILMN)（曾经是仅次于特斯拉的第二大控股公司），并增加了竞争对手加州太平洋生物科学公司(PACB)，因为它看到了从短阅读到长阅读基因组测序的颠覆性转变，莱吉说。它出售了其他品牌，因为与同行相比，它们变得太贵了。</blockquote></p><p>The firm has also been preparing for a market correction since last year, says Leggi, and large-cap additions were meant to offer downside protection and cash-like reserves to buy high-conviction names at low prices during a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>莱吉表示，该公司自去年以来也一直在为市场调整做准备，增持大盘股的目的是提供下行保护和类似现金的储备，以便在经济低迷时期以低价购买信誉良好的股票。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c6368f23c2e33e58f63f2868e48ee2b\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A shift in portfolio characteristics—from small-cap to mid-cap, more healthcare to more internet—means ARK Innovation will likely have less volatility down the road. Many biotechs lack cash flow or revenue until they get a product approved, while internet companies usually have some products or services on the market.</p><p><blockquote>投资组合特征的转变——从小盘股到中盘股，更多的医疗保健到更多的互联网——意味着方舟创新未来的波动性可能会更小。许多生物技术公司在产品获得批准之前缺乏现金流或收入，而互联网公司通常在市场上有一些产品或服务。</blockquote></p><p>This could mean ARK’s performance this year will look a lot more like 2019 than 2020. “It’s still a very aggressive growth fund,” says Arnott, “But it can be more difficult for a fund to sustain its performance edge as it gains assets.”</p><p><blockquote>这可能意味着ARK今年的表现看起来更像2019年，而不是2020年。阿诺特表示：“它仍然是一只非常激进的增长基金，但随着资产的增加，基金可能更难维持其业绩优势。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Leggi says larger companies don’t necessarily mean less growth: ARK just released its updatedprice target for Tesla at $3,000 by 2025, 385% higher than today’s price. In fact, in certain industries where earlier and larger disruptors have already established themselves, it would be hard for small rivals to compete, says Leggi.</p><p><blockquote>Leggi表示，规模更大的公司并不一定意味着增长更少：ARK刚刚发布了到2025年特斯拉的更新价格目标，为3,000美元，比目前的价格高出385%。莱吉表示，事实上，在某些行业，更早、更大的颠覆者已经站稳脚跟，小竞争对手很难竞争。</blockquote></p><p>“There have been a number of smaller EV [electric vehicle] manufacturers going public through SPACs,” he says, referring to special purpose acquisition companies, essentially shell companies used to bring private companies public. “We don’t invest in them, because we don’t think they’re well-positioned to be the new leader because of how capital-intensive it is. Tesla is far ahead. It’s unlikely to see as much small-cap exposure in our portfolios as you had a few years back.”</p><p><blockquote>“已经有许多规模较小的电动汽车制造商通过SPAC上市，”他说，他指的是特殊目的收购公司，本质上是用来让私营公司上市的空壳公司。“我们不投资它们，因为我们认为它们不适合成为新的领导者，因为它们的资本密集型程度很高。特斯拉遥遥领先。我们的投资组合中不太可能出现那么多小盘股敞口。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ARK Innovation Fund Has Reshuffled Its Holdings. What That Means for Investors<blockquote>方舟创新基金进行了持仓洗牌。这对投资者意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nARK Innovation Fund Has Reshuffled Its Holdings. What That Means for Investors<blockquote>方舟创新基金进行了持仓洗牌。这对投资者意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-29 20:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pretty much everything changed in 2020—some things more than others.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，几乎所有事情都发生了变化——有些事情比其他事情变化更大。</blockquote></p><p>The ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund (ticker: ARKK) went from a somewhat sleepy actively managed fund that returned 36% in 2019, to the top performer in 2020, returning 153% and making its manager,ARK Investment founder Cathie Wood, a household name. But ARK Innovation ishaving a rough 2021: After rising another 26% by mid-February, the $22 billion ETF has tumbled over the past six weeks, and is now down 9% year to date. Investors need to understand the dramatic portfolio changes that have occurred in the past year to see what they own and determine the fund’s role in their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>ARK Innovation交易所交易基金（股票代码：ARKK）从2019年回报率为36%的有点沉睡的主动管理基金，成为2020年表现最好的基金，回报率为153%，使其经理、ARK Investment创始人Cathie Wood成为家喻户晓的名字。但ARK Innovation 2021年的日子很艰难：这只价值220亿美元的ETF在2月中旬又上涨26%后，在过去六周内暴跌，今年迄今已下跌9%。投资者需要了解过去一年发生的巨大投资组合变化，以了解他们拥有什么并确定基金在其投资组合中的作用。</blockquote></p><p>For starters: A year ago, ARK Innovation was a small-company fund. Today, it’s solidly mid-cap, with 51% of its assets in large-company stocks. The average market cap of its holdings has increased from $5 billion last March to $39 billion by the end of February. That, in large part, is due to how much many holdings have run up. Notably, top holdingTesla(TSLA) has returned 500% in the past year even after the recent pullback.</p><p><blockquote>首先：一年前，方舟创新还是一只小公司基金。如今，它已成为稳定的中型股，51%的资产投资于大公司股票。其持有的平均市值已从去年3月的50亿美元增至2月底的390亿美元。这在很大程度上是由于持有量增加了多少。值得注意的是，即使在最近的回调之后，顶级控股特斯拉(TSLA)在过去一年中的回报率仍为500%。</blockquote></p><p>Many active funds have limitations on the size of companies they can buy and continue to own. ARK Innovation doesn’t have such constraints. It’s open to stocks up and down the capitalization spectrum—from the $594 billion Tesla to the $1 billionCerus(CERS). “We don’t really look at market caps. We are pretty agnostic to that,” says Ren Leggi, ARK’s client portfolio manager. “We’re looking at where innovation takes us.”</p><p><blockquote>许多主动型基金对其可以购买和继续拥有的公司规模都有限制。方舟创新没有这样的约束。它向市值范围内上下波动的股票开放——从5,940亿美元的特斯拉到10亿美元的Cerus(CERS)。ARK的客户投资组合经理Ren Leggi表示：“我们并不真正关注市值。我们对此非常不可知。”“我们正在研究创新将带我们走向何方。”</blockquote></p><p>The growth of its existing holdings only partially explains the fund’s tilt toward larger stocks. Over the past few months, ARK Innovation has also been selling shares in smaller-cap firms, many in biotech, includingOrganovo Holdings(ONVO),Seres Therapeutics(MCRB), Compugen(CGEN), andEditas Medicine(EDIT).</p><p><blockquote>其现有持股的增长只能部分解释该基金倾向于大型股票的原因。在过去的几个月里，ARK Innovation还一直在出售小型公司的股票，其中许多是生物技术公司，包括Organovo Holdings(ONVO)、Seres Therapeutics(MCRB)、Compugen(CGEN)和Editas Medicine(EDIT)。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, the fund has added a significant amount of large-cap internet stocks likePayPal Holdings(PYPL), Shopify(SHOP),Zoom Video Communications(ZM); and foreign firms such as Tencent Holdings(TCEHY), Baidu(BIDU),Sea(SE), and Nintendo(NTDOY). The ETF owned none of those names last July.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，该基金增持了大量大型互联网股票，如PayPal Holdings(PYPL)、Shopify(SHOP)、Zoom Video通信(ZM)；以及腾讯控股控股(TCEHY)、百度(BIDU)、Sea(SE)和任天堂(NTDOY)等外国公司。去年7月，该ETF没有拥有这些名字。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1bf566255ea478e6111c62695a5ade\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The recent trading has shifted ARK Innovation’s sector composition as well. In March 2020, biotech and diagnostics were the largest industries in the fund, making up 22% and 15% of the portfolio, respectively. By the end of February, biotech only made up 14%, and diagnostics, 8%.</p><p><blockquote>最近的交易也改变了方舟创新的行业构成。2020年3月，生物技术和诊断是该基金最大的行业，分别占投资组合的22%和15%。截至2月底，生物技术仅占14%，诊断技术仅占8%。</blockquote></p><p>Meanwhile, ARK Innovation has increased assets in internet and software stocks—from 6% of each in March 2020, to 15% and 9% as of February. Shopify, which wasn’t in ARK Innovation as of last October, is now the eighth-largest stock in the fund with a 3.1% weight.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，方舟创新增加了互联网和软件股票的资产——从2020年3月各占6%，增加到2月份的15%和9%。截至去年10月，Shopify尚未纳入ARK Innovation，但现在是该基金第八大股票，权重为3.1%。</blockquote></p><p>Still, compared to its peers in the mid-cap growth category, ARK Innovation is relatively heavy on healthcare and light on technology, says Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist at Morningstar.</p><p><blockquote>晨星公司投资组合策略师艾米·阿诺特(Amy Arnott)表示，尽管如此，与中型成长类同行相比，方舟创新相对偏重医疗保健，轻科技。</blockquote></p><p>Some suspect the shift toward bigger companies is the result of ARK Innovation’s unprecedented growth. The fund attracted $16 billion in new assets in the past year. If that money was invested in smaller companies, it couldquickly bump up ARK’s stakein them to perilous levels. From that perspective, putting that money in more liquid large-cap stocks seems a safer option. “The bigger they get, the more difficult it is for them to establish meaningful positions in smaller-cap stocks,” Arnott says.</p><p><blockquote>一些人怀疑向大公司的转变是方舟创新前所未有的增长的结果。该基金在过去一年吸引了160亿美元的新资产。如果这笔钱投资于规模较小的公司，方舟在这些公司的股份可能会迅速增加到危险的水平。从这个角度来看，将资金投入流动性更强的大盘股似乎是一个更安全的选择。“他们的规模越大，就越难在小盘股中建立有意义的头寸，”阿诺特说。</blockquote></p><p>ARK denies that recent trading decisions have anything to do with capacity, saying those moves are driven by conviction, valuation, and tactical considerations. For example, ARK Innovation exited DNA sequencing firmIllumina(ILMN)—once its second-largest holding behind Tesla—and added rivalPacific Biosciences of California(PACB), because it sees a shift of disruption from short-read to long-read genomic sequencing, says Leggi. It sold other names because they’d become too expensive compared to peers.</p><p><blockquote>ARK否认最近的交易决策与产能有任何关系，称这些举措是由信念、估值和战术考虑驱动的。例如，ARK Innovation退出了DNA测序公司Millumina(ILMN)（曾经是仅次于特斯拉的第二大控股公司），并增加了竞争对手加州太平洋生物科学公司(PACB)，因为它看到了从短阅读到长阅读基因组测序的颠覆性转变，莱吉说。它出售了其他品牌，因为与同行相比，它们变得太贵了。</blockquote></p><p>The firm has also been preparing for a market correction since last year, says Leggi, and large-cap additions were meant to offer downside protection and cash-like reserves to buy high-conviction names at low prices during a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>莱吉表示，该公司自去年以来也一直在为市场调整做准备，增持大盘股的目的是提供下行保护和类似现金的储备，以便在经济低迷时期以低价购买信誉良好的股票。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c6368f23c2e33e58f63f2868e48ee2b\" tg-width=\"644\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A shift in portfolio characteristics—from small-cap to mid-cap, more healthcare to more internet—means ARK Innovation will likely have less volatility down the road. Many biotechs lack cash flow or revenue until they get a product approved, while internet companies usually have some products or services on the market.</p><p><blockquote>投资组合特征的转变——从小盘股到中盘股，更多的医疗保健到更多的互联网——意味着方舟创新未来的波动性可能会更小。许多生物技术公司在产品获得批准之前缺乏现金流或收入，而互联网公司通常在市场上有一些产品或服务。</blockquote></p><p>This could mean ARK’s performance this year will look a lot more like 2019 than 2020. “It’s still a very aggressive growth fund,” says Arnott, “But it can be more difficult for a fund to sustain its performance edge as it gains assets.”</p><p><blockquote>这可能意味着ARK今年的表现看起来更像2019年，而不是2020年。阿诺特表示：“它仍然是一只非常激进的增长基金，但随着资产的增加，基金可能更难维持其业绩优势。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Leggi says larger companies don’t necessarily mean less growth: ARK just released its updatedprice target for Tesla at $3,000 by 2025, 385% higher than today’s price. In fact, in certain industries where earlier and larger disruptors have already established themselves, it would be hard for small rivals to compete, says Leggi.</p><p><blockquote>Leggi表示，规模更大的公司并不一定意味着增长更少：ARK刚刚发布了到2025年特斯拉的更新价格目标，为3,000美元，比目前的价格高出385%。莱吉表示，事实上，在某些行业，更早、更大的颠覆者已经站稳脚跟，小竞争对手很难竞争。</blockquote></p><p>“There have been a number of smaller EV [electric vehicle] manufacturers going public through SPACs,” he says, referring to special purpose acquisition companies, essentially shell companies used to bring private companies public. “We don’t invest in them, because we don’t think they’re well-positioned to be the new leader because of how capital-intensive it is. Tesla is far ahead. It’s unlikely to see as much small-cap exposure in our portfolios as you had a few years back.”</p><p><blockquote>“已经有许多规模较小的电动汽车制造商通过SPAC上市，”他说，他指的是特殊目的收购公司，本质上是用来让私营公司上市的空壳公司。“我们不投资它们，因为我们认为它们不适合成为新的领导者，因为它们的资本密集型程度很高。特斯拉遥遥领先。我们的投资组合中不太可能出现那么多小盘股敞口。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/ark-innovation-fund-has-reshuffled-its-holdings-what-that-means-for-investors-51616800226?mod=mw_more_headlines\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/ark-innovation-fund-has-reshuffled-its-holdings-what-that-means-for-investors-51616800226?mod=mw_more_headlines","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192930137","content_text":"Pretty much everything changed in 2020—some things more than others.The ARK Innovation exchange-traded fund (ticker: ARKK) went from a somewhat sleepy actively managed fund that returned 36% in 2019, to the top performer in 2020, returning 153% and making its manager,ARK Investment founder Cathie Wood, a household name. But ARK Innovation ishaving a rough 2021: After rising another 26% by mid-February, the $22 billion ETF has tumbled over the past six weeks, and is now down 9% year to date. Investors need to understand the dramatic portfolio changes that have occurred in the past year to see what they own and determine the fund’s role in their portfolios.For starters: A year ago, ARK Innovation was a small-company fund. Today, it’s solidly mid-cap, with 51% of its assets in large-company stocks. The average market cap of its holdings has increased from $5 billion last March to $39 billion by the end of February. That, in large part, is due to how much many holdings have run up. Notably, top holdingTesla(TSLA) has returned 500% in the past year even after the recent pullback.Many active funds have limitations on the size of companies they can buy and continue to own. ARK Innovation doesn’t have such constraints. It’s open to stocks up and down the capitalization spectrum—from the $594 billion Tesla to the $1 billionCerus(CERS). “We don’t really look at market caps. We are pretty agnostic to that,” says Ren Leggi, ARK’s client portfolio manager. “We’re looking at where innovation takes us.”The growth of its existing holdings only partially explains the fund’s tilt toward larger stocks. Over the past few months, ARK Innovation has also been selling shares in smaller-cap firms, many in biotech, includingOrganovo Holdings(ONVO),Seres Therapeutics(MCRB), Compugen(CGEN), andEditas Medicine(EDIT).Meanwhile, the fund has added a significant amount of large-cap internet stocks likePayPal Holdings(PYPL), Shopify(SHOP),Zoom Video Communications(ZM); and foreign firms such as Tencent Holdings(TCEHY), Baidu(BIDU),Sea(SE), and Nintendo(NTDOY). The ETF owned none of those names last July.The recent trading has shifted ARK Innovation’s sector composition as well. In March 2020, biotech and diagnostics were the largest industries in the fund, making up 22% and 15% of the portfolio, respectively. By the end of February, biotech only made up 14%, and diagnostics, 8%.Meanwhile, ARK Innovation has increased assets in internet and software stocks—from 6% of each in March 2020, to 15% and 9% as of February. Shopify, which wasn’t in ARK Innovation as of last October, is now the eighth-largest stock in the fund with a 3.1% weight.Still, compared to its peers in the mid-cap growth category, ARK Innovation is relatively heavy on healthcare and light on technology, says Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist at Morningstar.Some suspect the shift toward bigger companies is the result of ARK Innovation’s unprecedented growth. The fund attracted $16 billion in new assets in the past year. If that money was invested in smaller companies, it couldquickly bump up ARK’s stakein them to perilous levels. From that perspective, putting that money in more liquid large-cap stocks seems a safer option. “The bigger they get, the more difficult it is for them to establish meaningful positions in smaller-cap stocks,” Arnott says.ARK denies that recent trading decisions have anything to do with capacity, saying those moves are driven by conviction, valuation, and tactical considerations. For example, ARK Innovation exited DNA sequencing firmIllumina(ILMN)—once its second-largest holding behind Tesla—and added rivalPacific Biosciences of California(PACB), because it sees a shift of disruption from short-read to long-read genomic sequencing, says Leggi. It sold other names because they’d become too expensive compared to peers.The firm has also been preparing for a market correction since last year, says Leggi, and large-cap additions were meant to offer downside protection and cash-like reserves to buy high-conviction names at low prices during a downturn.A shift in portfolio characteristics—from small-cap to mid-cap, more healthcare to more internet—means ARK Innovation will likely have less volatility down the road. Many biotechs lack cash flow or revenue until they get a product approved, while internet companies usually have some products or services on the market.This could mean ARK’s performance this year will look a lot more like 2019 than 2020. “It’s still a very aggressive growth fund,” says Arnott, “But it can be more difficult for a fund to sustain its performance edge as it gains assets.”Leggi says larger companies don’t necessarily mean less growth: ARK just released its updatedprice target for Tesla at $3,000 by 2025, 385% higher than today’s price. In fact, in certain industries where earlier and larger disruptors have already established themselves, it would be hard for small rivals to compete, says Leggi.“There have been a number of smaller EV [electric vehicle] manufacturers going public through SPACs,” he says, referring to special purpose acquisition companies, essentially shell companies used to bring private companies public. “We don’t invest in them, because we don’t think they’re well-positioned to be the new leader because of how capital-intensive it is. Tesla is far ahead. It’s unlikely to see as much small-cap exposure in our portfolios as you had a few years back.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":355318765,"gmtCreate":1617028208757,"gmtModify":1634523035224,"author":{"id":"3571546824730665","authorId":"3571546824730665","name":"JTROMEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa5a6831351c945a620caefdd96646e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571546824730665","idStr":"3571546824730665"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Hold on","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Hold on","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Hold on","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be850297955cd511710211a8fd3709f","width":"1242","height":"2151"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355318765","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":352101677,"gmtCreate":1616901408399,"gmtModify":1634523603915,"author":{"id":"3571546824730665","authorId":"3571546824730665","name":"JTROMEO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8aa5a6831351c945a620caefdd96646e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571546824730665","idStr":"3571546824730665"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Potential?","listText":"Potential?","text":"Potential?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88bcde8dc92bfd8cac64338982e6ac4","width":"1125","height":"2469"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352101677","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}