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yapyap168
yapyap168
·
2021-11-08
Lol 😂 it will be a giant soon people who belittle them... To bad...
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yapyap168
yapyap168
·
2021-09-13
Continue buy and buy.. Hha we like the stock
AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment
AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX. I’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m sk
AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment
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yapyap168
yapyap168
·
2021-09-11
$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$
buy n holddd
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yapyap168
yapyap168
·
2021-09-10
$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$
buy n Hold wooook
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yapyap168
yapyap168
·
2021-09-02
If it is so lousy as it is.. Pls push it to 0.10 lol i also will..Not sell...
Why AMC Is The 'Riskier' Investment In Movie Theaters: 'Fundamentals Are Nowhere Near Where Shares Are Trading'
Macquarie Capital Managing Director and Senior Analyst Chad Beynon on Wednesday downgraded AMC Enter
Why AMC Is The 'Riskier' Investment In Movie Theaters: 'Fundamentals Are Nowhere Near Where Shares Are Trading'
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yapyap168
yapyap168
·
2021-08-16
Propganda 😂 we buy n hold lol
3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street
Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth. Key Points The pandemic and/o
3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street
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yapyap168
yapyap168
·
2021-08-05
Let his have the minor victory lure him in.. Then make him bankrupt why HF like to bully retailor Investor and alway think their way is right wtf... We should keep buying and show u true color...
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yapyap168
yapyap168
·
2021-08-03
Alot of rubbish writer trying to bash amc but lol if it is stock cmi the ape will not buy and hold.. The HF as usual propganda engage writer lol
AMC Stock May Fall Hard if Momentum Fades
Momentum rapidly fading for AMC
AMC Stock May Fall Hard if Momentum Fades
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yapyap168
yapyap168
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2021-08-02
Wohoo
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yapyap168
yapyap168
·
2021-07-22
Lol propganda lol
Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction
In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted -
Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction
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To bad... ","listText":"Lol 😂 it will be a giant soon people who belittle them... To bad... ","text":"Lol 😂 it will be a giant soon people who belittle them... To bad...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844007553","repostId":"2180757875","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886989281,"gmtCreate":1631543582943,"gmtModify":1631890345214,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Continue buy and buy.. Hha we like the stock","listText":"Continue buy and buy.. Hha we like the stock","text":"Continue buy and buy.. Hha we like the stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886989281","repostId":"1105230157","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105230157","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631284349,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1105230157?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 22:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105230157","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.\n\nI’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m sk","content":"<blockquote>\n <b>AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>I’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m skepticalof investing in the movie theater business. But even if you assume movie theaters are a sound long-term investment,<b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:<b><u>AMC</u></b>) stock isn’t the best stock to buy.</p>\n<p>If you want to gamble on meme stocks, AMC stock will certainly be a fun time. The AMC “ape army” is large, very funny and extremely active on social media.</p>\n<p>But if you want to make a smart, long-term investment in a movie theater recovery,<b>IMAX</b>(NYSE:<b><u>IMAX</u></b>) is your best bet.</p>\n<p><b>Movie Theater Numbers</b></p>\n<p>It doesn’t take much time to make the case that the movie theater business is a bad investment. Forget the pandemic. U.S. total domestic box office sales in 2019 were $11.32 billion. In 2016, total U.S. domestic box office sales were$11.37 billion. From 2016 through 2019, AMC averaged an annual net loss of $103.6 million.</p>\n<p>Movie theaters will not be disappearing. Going to the movies is a fun experience from time to time. The problem is that people have increasingly impressive HD smart TVs at home. There are more streaming platforms releasing original content than ever before.</p>\n<p>AMC stock bulls believe in a comeback of movie theaters. I’m certain movie theaters have and will continue to rebound from pandemic-level numbers. The million-dollar question is will they continue to grow over time? What they ever make it back to 2016 levels?</p>\n<p>Sure, people will continue to go out to the movies. People who went to see four movie theater movies per month may see two or three per month by 2023 or 2024. I’m not predicting an end to the movie theater industry. But a 25% to 50% drop in revenue is a major problem for AMC stock investors.</p>\n<p><b>IMAX Over AMC Stock</b></p>\n<p>Let’s assume for a minute that you ignore<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:<b><u>NFLX</u></b>),<b>Disney</b>(NYSE:<b><u>DIS</u></b>) and all the other streaming services. Let’s assume you want to bet on movie theaters. To me, that’s akin to ignoring Netflix in 2016 and betting on Blockbuster Video. But let’s assume that you believe the future of the entertainment industry is movie theaters.</p>\n<p>Macquarie Research analystChad Beynonrecently released a note that included a deep dive into the entire movie theater industry.</p>\n<p>In the note, Beynon downgraded AMC stock and had some harsh words about its valuation. He pointed out that AMC shares are up more than 500% in the past 12 months, while the movie theater group as a whole is up just 11%.</p>\n<p>Beynon also said AMC will not be free cash flow positive until 2023.</p>\n<p>“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn; normalized maintenance capex is ~$140m, and annual interest is ~$420m,” Beynon says.</p>\n<p>Macquarie has an “underperform” rating and $6 price target for AMC stock.</p>\n<p>Instead, Baynon named IMAX as his top movie theater stock pick. IMAX is growing, it has a much healthier balance sheet than AMC and it is a much better value. In the past seven years, IMAX has grown its total number of screens from 863 to 1,654, Beynon said.</p>\n<p>“Additionally, we believe the company’s leading margins and well-capitalized balance sheet support our positive view,” he says.</p>\n<p>Macquarie has an “outperform” rating and $26 price target for IMAX stock.</p>\n<p><b>Don’t Pair Trade</b></p>\n<p>AMC stock apes won’t care about anything Macquarie has to say. They certainly don’t care what I haveto say. They like the stock.</p>\n<p>But for people that want to make sound long-term investments, AMC stock is not the way to play a movie theater recovery. AMC stock trades at 28.2x sales. IMAX trades at 5.2x sales. AMC stock has $3.7 billion in net debt. IMAX has $11.8 million in net debt.</p>\n<p>In 2019, AMC generated a net loss of $149 million. IMAX generated a net profit of $46.8 million.</p>\n<p>To be clear, I wouldn’t and haven’t invested in either of these stocks. I believe movie theater ticket sales were likely insecular declineeven before the pandemic. But IMAX is clearly more appealing as a movie theater rebound investment in virtually every way compared to AMC stock.</p>\n<p>Before I wrap up, I want to add one warning. Normally, I’d recommend a pair trade in which investors go long IMAX stock and short AMC stock. In this case, I would never short AMC stock under any circumstances. AMC stock price disconnected from reality a long time ago. It is now the ultimate cult stock.</p>\n<p>AMC stock trading at a $24.5 billion market cap is just as insane as it trading at a $245 billion market cap. Once a stock is disconnected from fundamentals, it can go anywhere in the near term. Do not short AMC stock unless you are prepared to endure very heavy losses.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock Isn’t The Best Movie Theater Recovery Investment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-10 22:32 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/09/amc-stock-isnt-the-best-movie-theater-recovery-investment/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.\n\nI’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m skepticalof investing in the movie theater business. But even if you assume movie theaters are a sound...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/amc-stock-isnt-the-best-movie-theater-recovery-investment/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/09/amc-stock-isnt-the-best-movie-theater-recovery-investment/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105230157","content_text":"AMC stock investors would be better off with IMAX.\n\nI’ve repeatedly summarized all the reasonsI’m skepticalof investing in the movie theater business. But even if you assume movie theaters are a sound long-term investment,AMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC) stock isn’t the best stock to buy.\nIf you want to gamble on meme stocks, AMC stock will certainly be a fun time. The AMC “ape army” is large, very funny and extremely active on social media.\nBut if you want to make a smart, long-term investment in a movie theater recovery,IMAX(NYSE:IMAX) is your best bet.\nMovie Theater Numbers\nIt doesn’t take much time to make the case that the movie theater business is a bad investment. Forget the pandemic. U.S. total domestic box office sales in 2019 were $11.32 billion. In 2016, total U.S. domestic box office sales were$11.37 billion. From 2016 through 2019, AMC averaged an annual net loss of $103.6 million.\nMovie theaters will not be disappearing. Going to the movies is a fun experience from time to time. The problem is that people have increasingly impressive HD smart TVs at home. There are more streaming platforms releasing original content than ever before.\nAMC stock bulls believe in a comeback of movie theaters. I’m certain movie theaters have and will continue to rebound from pandemic-level numbers. The million-dollar question is will they continue to grow over time? What they ever make it back to 2016 levels?\nSure, people will continue to go out to the movies. People who went to see four movie theater movies per month may see two or three per month by 2023 or 2024. I’m not predicting an end to the movie theater industry. But a 25% to 50% drop in revenue is a major problem for AMC stock investors.\nIMAX Over AMC Stock\nLet’s assume for a minute that you ignoreNetflix(NASDAQ:NFLX),Disney(NYSE:DIS) and all the other streaming services. Let’s assume you want to bet on movie theaters. To me, that’s akin to ignoring Netflix in 2016 and betting on Blockbuster Video. But let’s assume that you believe the future of the entertainment industry is movie theaters.\nMacquarie Research analystChad Beynonrecently released a note that included a deep dive into the entire movie theater industry.\nIn the note, Beynon downgraded AMC stock and had some harsh words about its valuation. He pointed out that AMC shares are up more than 500% in the past 12 months, while the movie theater group as a whole is up just 11%.\nBeynon also said AMC will not be free cash flow positive until 2023.\n“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn; normalized maintenance capex is ~$140m, and annual interest is ~$420m,” Beynon says.\nMacquarie has an “underperform” rating and $6 price target for AMC stock.\nInstead, Baynon named IMAX as his top movie theater stock pick. IMAX is growing, it has a much healthier balance sheet than AMC and it is a much better value. In the past seven years, IMAX has grown its total number of screens from 863 to 1,654, Beynon said.\n“Additionally, we believe the company’s leading margins and well-capitalized balance sheet support our positive view,” he says.\nMacquarie has an “outperform” rating and $26 price target for IMAX stock.\nDon’t Pair Trade\nAMC stock apes won’t care about anything Macquarie has to say. They certainly don’t care what I haveto say. They like the stock.\nBut for people that want to make sound long-term investments, AMC stock is not the way to play a movie theater recovery. AMC stock trades at 28.2x sales. IMAX trades at 5.2x sales. AMC stock has $3.7 billion in net debt. IMAX has $11.8 million in net debt.\nIn 2019, AMC generated a net loss of $149 million. IMAX generated a net profit of $46.8 million.\nTo be clear, I wouldn’t and haven’t invested in either of these stocks. I believe movie theater ticket sales were likely insecular declineeven before the pandemic. But IMAX is clearly more appealing as a movie theater rebound investment in virtually every way compared to AMC stock.\nBefore I wrap up, I want to add one warning. Normally, I’d recommend a pair trade in which investors go long IMAX stock and short AMC stock. In this case, I would never short AMC stock under any circumstances. AMC stock price disconnected from reality a long time ago. It is now the ultimate cult stock.\nAMC stock trading at a $24.5 billion market cap is just as insane as it trading at a $245 billion market cap. Once a stock is disconnected from fundamentals, it can go anywhere in the near term. Do not short AMC stock unless you are prepared to endure very heavy losses.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":962,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881369097,"gmtCreate":1631294134119,"gmtModify":1631884398047,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a> buy n holddd","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a> buy n holddd","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ buy n holddd","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ee5e5aa5a5469357b921f3d3176701f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881369097","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881901036,"gmtCreate":1631283587825,"gmtModify":1631884398233,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a> buy n Hold wooook","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a> buy n Hold wooook","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ buy n Hold wooook","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/827bacf889a5dab239f91a7bc1eb1dcc","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881901036","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812545881,"gmtCreate":1630596963743,"gmtModify":1631890345216,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"If it is so lousy as it is.. Pls push it to 0.10 lol i also will..Not sell...","listText":"If it is so lousy as it is.. Pls push it to 0.10 lol i also will..Not sell...","text":"If it is so lousy as it is.. Pls push it to 0.10 lol i also will..Not sell...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812545881","repostId":"1158045928","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1158045928","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1630563226,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1158045928?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 14:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Is The 'Riskier' Investment In Movie Theaters: 'Fundamentals Are Nowhere Near Where Shares Are Trading'","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158045928","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Macquarie Capital Managing Director and Senior Analyst Chad Beynon on Wednesday downgraded AMC Enter","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">Macquarie</a> Capital Managing Director and Senior Analyst Chad Beynon on Wednesday downgraded <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc.</b></p>\n<p>AMC-7.28% from Neutral to Underperform and maintained a $6 price target.</p>\n<p><b>The Logic Behind The Downgrade:</b> In a new note, Beynon observed that U.S. theatrical box office performance has yet to recover its pre-pandemic levels. While expressing confidence in the theater chains <b>IMAX Corp.</b></p>\n<p>IMAX-1.21%and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNK\">Cinemark</a> Holdings Inc.</b>, Beynon had less enthusiasm for AMC’s prospects in the current market.</p>\n<p>“AMC remains a riskier investment, given rent obligations, higher leverage and a difficult margin trajectory following a more normalized recovery,” he said.</p>\n<p>Beynon observed <b>AMC’s stock performance is still being “heavily influenced” by retail investors</b>, particularly the members of the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit. He noted this created a conspicuous imbalance “with shares still up ~526% L12M (vs. theatre space +11 % and S&P500 +29%). However, shares are trading at ~58x ’22E cons estimates, whereas we generally see this business trading in the 6-9x EBITDA range.”</p>\n<p>He added that while AMC avoided a bankruptcy filing during the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to its ability to raise additional capital and refinance some of its debt, he questioned whether its near-term future was copacetic.</p>\n<p>“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn,” he wrote, adding that he could foresee how AMC would generate positive free cash flow until 2023.</p>\n<p><b>The Competition’s Viability:</b> While downgrading AMC, Beynon hailed IMAX as being “more insulated than peers given recovering trends in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a>, leading margins and a well-capitalized balance sheet” and maintained an Outperform rating while adding a dollar to raise its target price to $26.</p>\n<p>With Cinemark, Beynon ranked it as “a close #2, given its superior balance sheet (we’re projecting 3.3x YE22 leverage), superior margins (860bps higher than AMC in 2019) and more suburban locations (lower rent),” adding its balance sheet could encourage “opportunistic M&A.”</p>\n<p>He maintained its Outperform rating and added a dollar to raise its target price to $24.</p>\n<p>Also under analysis was <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDI\">Reading</a> International Inc.</b> RDI, which operates art house venues primarily in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, Australia and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Zealand. Beynon noted that while these specialty theaters were strong performers before the pandemic, they now face higher rents, a content inventory challenge and greater competition from other entertainment channels. As a result, he downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral and lowered the price target from $8 to $6.</p>\n<p><b>AMC Price Action</b>: AMC's stock is trading down 2.8% to $45.77 at publication time.</p>\n<p>Cinemark is down 3% to $17.30, while IMAX is down 1% to $15.55.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Is The 'Riskier' Investment In Movie Theaters: 'Fundamentals Are Nowhere Near Where Shares Are Trading'</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Is The 'Riskier' Investment In Movie Theaters: 'Fundamentals Are Nowhere Near Where Shares Are Trading'\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-02 14:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MQG.AU\">Macquarie</a> Capital Managing Director and Senior Analyst Chad Beynon on Wednesday downgraded <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> Holdings Inc.</b></p>\n<p>AMC-7.28% from Neutral to Underperform and maintained a $6 price target.</p>\n<p><b>The Logic Behind The Downgrade:</b> In a new note, Beynon observed that U.S. theatrical box office performance has yet to recover its pre-pandemic levels. While expressing confidence in the theater chains <b>IMAX Corp.</b></p>\n<p>IMAX-1.21%and<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CNK\">Cinemark</a> Holdings Inc.</b>, Beynon had less enthusiasm for AMC’s prospects in the current market.</p>\n<p>“AMC remains a riskier investment, given rent obligations, higher leverage and a difficult margin trajectory following a more normalized recovery,” he said.</p>\n<p>Beynon observed <b>AMC’s stock performance is still being “heavily influenced” by retail investors</b>, particularly the members of the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit. He noted this created a conspicuous imbalance “with shares still up ~526% L12M (vs. theatre space +11 % and S&P500 +29%). However, shares are trading at ~58x ’22E cons estimates, whereas we generally see this business trading in the 6-9x EBITDA range.”</p>\n<p>He added that while AMC avoided a bankruptcy filing during the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to its ability to raise additional capital and refinance some of its debt, he questioned whether its near-term future was copacetic.</p>\n<p>“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn,” he wrote, adding that he could foresee how AMC would generate positive free cash flow until 2023.</p>\n<p><b>The Competition’s Viability:</b> While downgrading AMC, Beynon hailed IMAX as being “more insulated than peers given recovering trends in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a>, leading margins and a well-capitalized balance sheet” and maintained an Outperform rating while adding a dollar to raise its target price to $26.</p>\n<p>With Cinemark, Beynon ranked it as “a close #2, given its superior balance sheet (we’re projecting 3.3x YE22 leverage), superior margins (860bps higher than AMC in 2019) and more suburban locations (lower rent),” adding its balance sheet could encourage “opportunistic M&A.”</p>\n<p>He maintained its Outperform rating and added a dollar to raise its target price to $24.</p>\n<p>Also under analysis was <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RDI\">Reading</a> International Inc.</b> RDI, which operates art house venues primarily in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHCO\">City</a>, Australia and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">New</a> Zealand. Beynon noted that while these specialty theaters were strong performers before the pandemic, they now face higher rents, a content inventory challenge and greater competition from other entertainment channels. As a result, he downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral and lowered the price target from $8 to $6.</p>\n<p><b>AMC Price Action</b>: AMC's stock is trading down 2.8% to $45.77 at publication time.</p>\n<p>Cinemark is down 3% to $17.30, while IMAX is down 1% to $15.55.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158045928","content_text":"Macquarie Capital Managing Director and Senior Analyst Chad Beynon on Wednesday downgraded AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.\nAMC-7.28% from Neutral to Underperform and maintained a $6 price target.\nThe Logic Behind The Downgrade: In a new note, Beynon observed that U.S. theatrical box office performance has yet to recover its pre-pandemic levels. While expressing confidence in the theater chains IMAX Corp.\nIMAX-1.21%andCinemark Holdings Inc., Beynon had less enthusiasm for AMC’s prospects in the current market.\n“AMC remains a riskier investment, given rent obligations, higher leverage and a difficult margin trajectory following a more normalized recovery,” he said.\nBeynon observed AMC’s stock performance is still being “heavily influenced” by retail investors, particularly the members of the WallStreetBets forum on Reddit. He noted this created a conspicuous imbalance “with shares still up ~526% L12M (vs. theatre space +11 % and S&P500 +29%). However, shares are trading at ~58x ’22E cons estimates, whereas we generally see this business trading in the 6-9x EBITDA range.”\nHe added that while AMC avoided a bankruptcy filing during the COVID-19 pandemic thanks to its ability to raise additional capital and refinance some of its debt, he questioned whether its near-term future was copacetic.\n“Looking forward, fundamentals are nowhere near where shares are trading given the company carries deferred rent of $420m (2Q21) in addition to its annual rent expense of $1bn,” he wrote, adding that he could foresee how AMC would generate positive free cash flow until 2023.\nThe Competition’s Viability: While downgrading AMC, Beynon hailed IMAX as being “more insulated than peers given recovering trends in China, leading margins and a well-capitalized balance sheet” and maintained an Outperform rating while adding a dollar to raise its target price to $26.\nWith Cinemark, Beynon ranked it as “a close #2, given its superior balance sheet (we’re projecting 3.3x YE22 leverage), superior margins (860bps higher than AMC in 2019) and more suburban locations (lower rent),” adding its balance sheet could encourage “opportunistic M&A.”\nHe maintained its Outperform rating and added a dollar to raise its target price to $24.\nAlso under analysis was Reading International Inc. RDI, which operates art house venues primarily in New York City, Australia and New Zealand. Beynon noted that while these specialty theaters were strong performers before the pandemic, they now face higher rents, a content inventory challenge and greater competition from other entertainment channels. As a result, he downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral and lowered the price target from $8 to $6.\nAMC Price Action: AMC's stock is trading down 2.8% to $45.77 at publication time.\nCinemark is down 3% to $17.30, while IMAX is down 1% to $15.55.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1233,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839161349,"gmtCreate":1629127294681,"gmtModify":1631890345220,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Propganda 😂 we buy n hold lol","listText":"Propganda 😂 we buy n hold lol","text":"Propganda 😂 we buy n hold lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839161349","repostId":"1137437693","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137437693","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629116844,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1137437693?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 20:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137437693","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n\nKey Points\n\nThe pandemic and/o","content":"<blockquote>\n Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>The pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.</li>\n <li>Though Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>It's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">S&P 500</a></b> bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.</p>\n<p>However, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.</p>\n<p><b>Moderna: Implied downside of 53%</b></p>\n<p>First up is skyrocketing biotech stock <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a></b>, which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.</p>\n<p>As you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the<b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>/</b><b>BioNTech</b> vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.</p>\n<p>The rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.</p>\n<p>Ultimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.</p>\n<p>However, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFBC\">First</a>, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing. <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b> is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JNJ\">Johnson & Johnson</a></b> shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.</p>\n<p>The other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.</p>\n<p><b>Dillard's: Implied downside of 55%</b></p>\n<p>The next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDS\">Dillard's</a></b>. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.</p>\n<p>If you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.</p>\n<p>Dillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.</p>\n<p>It's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.</p>\n<p>Despite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.</p>\n<p>Though Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.</p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>: Implied downside of 84%</b></p>\n<p>Sporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a></b>. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.</p>\n<p>AMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.</p>\n<p>Today, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.</p>\n<p>The problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.</p>\n<p>The balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.</p>\n<p>The icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&T Inc</a>'s Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.</p>\n<p>It may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 High-Flying Stocks That May Fall 53% to 84%, According to Wall Street\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-16 20:27 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/3-high-flying-stocks-may-fall-53-to-84-wall-street/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n\nKey Points\n\nThe pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.\nThough Wall Street's price ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/3-high-flying-stocks-may-fall-53-to-84-wall-street/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DDS":"狄乐百货","JNJ":"强生","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/16/3-high-flying-stocks-may-fall-53-to-84-wall-street/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137437693","content_text":"Analysts expect these soaring stocks to come crashing back to Earth.\n\nKey Points\n\nThe pandemic and/or short squeezes have treated these three companies very well in 2021.\nThough Wall Street's price targets can often be taken with a grain of salt, these are likely on point.\n\nIt's a great time to be an investor. In the close to 17 months since the widely followed S&P 500 bottomed out during the coronavirus crash in March 2020, the index has doubled in value. Time and again, patience begets profits on Wall Street.\nHowever, it's also common knowledge that not every stock is going to be a winner. According to Wall Street analysts and investment firms, there are three high-flying stocks that could lose anywhere from 53% to 84% of their value over the coming year, based on the consensus price target for each company.\nModerna: Implied downside of 53%\nFirst up is skyrocketing biotech stock Moderna, Inc., which has gained almost 1,900% since the beginning of 2020. Even after pulling back more than 20% from its intraday high last week, Moderna's share price would have to fall by another 53% just to hit the consensus price target of $184.92.\nAs you can probably guess, the reason Moderna has ascended to the heavens is the success of its emergency-use authorized (EUA) coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine, mRNA-1273. In clinical trials, Moderna's vaccine candidate led to a vaccine efficacy (VE) of about 94%. With the exception of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, which presented with a 95% VE, no other EUA vaccines have come close on the efficacy front.\nThe rise of the COVID-19 delta variant has been another major boon for Moderna. The transmissibility of delta has lifted vaccination rates in a number of developed countries, and it encouraged the U.S. Food and Drug Administration toauthorize a booster shotfor those people with compromised immune systems.\nUltimately, Moderna's skyrocketing share price appears to indicate that things could worsen before they get better on the COVID-19 front, and that booster shots will offer a beefier stream of revenue than once predicted.\nHowever, the issue with Moderna's valuation is twofold. First, competition for COVID-19 vaccinations is increasing, not decreasing. Novavax is a good bet to receive EUA within the coming months, and Johnson & Johnson shouldn't have any trouble ramping up production of its single-dose vaccine. We'reprobably looking at Moderna's peak revenue year in 2021.\nThe other issue is mRNA-1273 is Moderna's only marketable drug. A $157 billion market cap based on a single therapy that may or may not have staying powersounds very risky.\nDillard's: Implied downside of 55%\nThe next high-flying stock might come as a bit of a surprise... department store chain Dillard's. Shares of Dillard's hit an all-time closing high of $196 on Friday, Aug. 13, pushing its market cap north of $4 billion. But according to analysts, which have a consensus price target of $87.33 on the company, this department store could be hitting the clearance rack with a 55% haircut over the next year.\nIf you're wondering why Dillard's stock is up 625% over the trailing year, itsoperating performance would be a good place to start. The company drastically cut costs in the wake of the pandemic, strongly pushed direct-to-consumer sales, and has tightly managed its inventory. Without these burdensome overhead costs, profits have absolutely skyrocketed over the past two quarters as pent-up demand encouraged consumers to get out of their homes and into retail stores.\nDillard's has done a good job of attempting to boost shareholder value, too. In the 26 weeks, ended July 31, the company repurchased about 1.4 million shares totaling $171 million. This may not sound like a lot, but it reduced the company's outstanding share count by more than 6%.\nIt's also worth pointing out that Dillard's has a relatively small tradable float, and it's been a fairly heavily short-sold stock. This combination made it the perfect target for a short squeeze.\nDespite all these positives, it's important for investors to recognize that retail department stores are generally slow-growing and cyclical. Even though Dillard's year-over-year comparisons are lights-out impressive, its 26-week retail sales for 2021 are only 1% higher than its 26-week retail sales for the comparable period in 2019. Further, comparable-store sales are only 4% higher in 2021 compared to 2019. While gross margin is notably higher, this has more to do with cost-cutting than significant sales traction.\nThough Dillard's might defy Wall Street for a bit longer than expected, history suggestsit has no chance to keep up this pace. More than likely, Wall Street's price target will eventually become a reality.\nAMC Entertainment: Implied downside of 84%\nSporting the most potential downside, according to Wall Street's consensus price target, is movie theater stock AMC Entertainment. Although it's one of the year's top-performing stocks, AMC would need to decline by 84% from its current share price to hit the consensus target of $5.25 a share.\nAMC received a huge boost in January, when the company was able to save itself from bankruptcy by issuing common stock and debt. Short-sellers who'd been betting on additional downside in the company were caught off-guard by AMC's capital raise, which effected a viciousshort squeeze.\nToday, AMC's impassioned retail investors share the same goal -- i.e., to see another short squeeze take place. As of July 30, 85.85 million shares were held short, representing almost 17% of the float.\nThe problem for AMC and its retail investors is that fundamentals always matter, and AMC's operating performance and balance sheet arenothing short of a horror movie. While having increased capacity in its theaters drove sequential quarterly sales higher in the second quarter, it doesn't excuse the fact that AMC has burned through $576.5 million in cash over the past six months or that it's a long way from being profitable.\nThe balance sheet is a bigger concern. AMC ended June with $5.5 billion in corporate borrowing and had an additional $420 million in deferred rent that needs to be paid. With the company effectively maxing out its share issuances, AMC will be forced to rely on its $1.81 billion in cash and $212 million revolving credit facility to make good on its rent obligations and pay off its debt. With its 2026 and 2027 bonds going for 58% and 62% of par value, the clear implication from bondholders isthere's concern AMC won't remain solvent.\nThe icing on the cake is we'vewitnessed theatrical exclusivity dwindle. For instance, AMC's agreement with AT&T Inc's Warner Bros. offers only a 45-day exclusivity window, which is down from the traditional 75-day to 90-day period of exclusivity prior to the pandemic.\nIt may take longer than 12 months, but AMC does look to beheaded back to its February low.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"DDS":0.9,"JNJ":0.9,"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899612204,"gmtCreate":1628177610308,"gmtModify":1631890345224,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let his have the minor victory lure him in.. Then make him bankrupt why HF like to bully retailor Investor and alway think their way is right wtf... We should keep buying and show u true color... ","listText":"Let his have the minor victory lure him in.. Then make him bankrupt why HF like to bully retailor Investor and alway think their way is right wtf... We should keep buying and show u true color... ","text":"Let his have the minor victory lure him in.. Then make him bankrupt why HF like to bully retailor Investor and alway think their way is right wtf... We should keep buying and show u true color...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899612204","repostId":"1158295123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804767548,"gmtCreate":1627981465384,"gmtModify":1631890345226,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alot of rubbish writer trying to bash amc but lol if it is stock cmi the ape will not buy and hold.. The HF as usual propganda engage writer lol ","listText":"Alot of rubbish writer trying to bash amc but lol if it is stock cmi the ape will not buy and hold.. The HF as usual propganda engage writer lol ","text":"Alot of rubbish writer trying to bash amc but lol if it is stock cmi the ape will not buy and hold.. The HF as usual propganda engage writer lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804767548","repostId":"1148437644","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148437644","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627967066,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1148437644?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 13:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Stock May Fall Hard if Momentum Fades","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148437644","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"Momentum rapidly fading for AMC","content":"<p>Now that daily trading volume is drying up, markets will look at<b>AMC Entertainment’s</b>(NYSE:<b><u>AMC</u></b>) fundamentals more closely. AMC stock enjoyed a “meme stock” following as short float at 16.8% remained high.</p>\n<p>Does AMC have enough positive catalysts to stock the stock from falling back to the $10 range?</p>\n<p><b>Movie Attendance a Catalyst for AMC Stock</b></p>\n<p>AMC posted a press release on July 12 that it set another post-reopening weekend attendance. Between July 8 and June 11, 3.2 million peoplewatched movies at AMC’s theatres globally.<i>Black Widow</i> opened to around $80 million in North America. This amounts to the first $100 million-plus domestic box office weekend since before the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Shareholders will not know the volume of concession sales associated with the increased attendance. They will have to wait until AMC’s next quarterly earnings report. Investors may assume popcorn ($8.00) and a medium soft drink ($5.00) for at least half of the 3.2 million in attendance that weekend. The $20.8 million in additional revenue per weekend for 13 weeks would total $270 million in quarterly revenue. Since the opening weekend is not a good indicator for total sales, the above-mentioned scenario is unlikely.</p>\n<p>When AMC shares traded at around $37 last week at a $19.11 billion market capitalization, bulls will have trouble justifying the over 40 times price-to-sales valuation.</p>\n<p><b>Competition From Streaming</b></p>\n<p>AMC’s 3.2 million weekend attendance is a modest start for now. The theatre chain has to contend with its audience preferring to watch blockbusters through streaming services. For example, when Disney+ released <i>Black Widow</i>simultaneously, it competed for box office revenue. In August,<b>AT&T’s</b>(NYSE:<b><u>T</u></b>)<i>The Suicide Squad</i> will debut simultaneously on HBO Max.Hot titles like <i>Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, Due, and Eternals</i> will not arrive until October at the earliest.</p>\n<p>Movie studios will need to decide if they will continue with releasing blockbusters online and in theatres simultaneously. In doing so, AMC loses out on attracting a bigger audience. Studios have more to lose. Profits are higher from theatre ticket sales plus fans buying a copy of the movie for home viewing later.</p>\n<p><b>No More Share Dilution</b></p>\n<p>On July 6, Chief Executive Officer Adam Aron tweeted that AMC canceled plans to sell another 25 million shares. CEO Aron said, “I think shareholders should authorize 25 million more AMC shares. But what YOU think is important to us. Many yes, many no. AMC does not want to proceed with such a split. So, we’re canceling the July vote on more shares. And no more such requests in 2021.”</p>\n<p>Since insiders already dumped shares in the last few months (per Tipranks), selling more shares will not matter. Ironically, AMC Entertainment is better off selling more shares to raise as much cash as it can. It could have used the funds to retire $5.4 billion in debt. Furthermore, it is cash flow negative each quarter. It could have used the extra cash to pay for leases.</p>\n<p>AMC may issue a convertible offering within the next 12 months. It will not need to seek investor authorization. Unsuspecting shareholders may believe the offering is not an issuance of shares. This would prevent a massive sell-off, at least temporarily. Momentum investors did not fret because the stock price would not fall suddenly. Short-sellers will not mind waiting longer for AMC shares to fall slowly.</p>\n<p><b>Price Target and Your Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Only one analyst rates AMC stock as a “buy.” The highest price target is $16 and the average is $5.84,according to Tipranks. Still, AMC’s stock price movement is unpredictable on a daily basis. The stock direction shifts as market opinion changes intraday. The volatility may attract day traders but investors seeking an undervalued business with profit growth upside for the future. Investors should leave the trading to speculators, particularly those who play on momentum.</p>\n<p>Even in the best-case scenario, fundamentals are not getting better enough to justify buying the stock at this time. Speculators are taking high risks, too. As with nearly all meme stocks in the last year, momentum fades. When trading volume dries up, the stock often falls permanently.</p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Stock May Fall Hard if Momentum Fades</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Stock May Fall Hard if Momentum Fades\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-03 13:04 GMT+8 <a href=https://investorplace.com/2021/08/amc-stock-may-fall-hard-if-momentum-fades/><strong>InvestorPlace</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Now that daily trading volume is drying up, markets will look atAMC Entertainment’s(NYSE:AMC) fundamentals more closely. AMC stock enjoyed a “meme stock” following as short float at 16.8% remained ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/08/amc-stock-may-fall-hard-if-momentum-fades/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/08/amc-stock-may-fall-hard-if-momentum-fades/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148437644","content_text":"Now that daily trading volume is drying up, markets will look atAMC Entertainment’s(NYSE:AMC) fundamentals more closely. AMC stock enjoyed a “meme stock” following as short float at 16.8% remained high.\nDoes AMC have enough positive catalysts to stock the stock from falling back to the $10 range?\nMovie Attendance a Catalyst for AMC Stock\nAMC posted a press release on July 12 that it set another post-reopening weekend attendance. Between July 8 and June 11, 3.2 million peoplewatched movies at AMC’s theatres globally.Black Widow opened to around $80 million in North America. This amounts to the first $100 million-plus domestic box office weekend since before the pandemic.\nShareholders will not know the volume of concession sales associated with the increased attendance. They will have to wait until AMC’s next quarterly earnings report. Investors may assume popcorn ($8.00) and a medium soft drink ($5.00) for at least half of the 3.2 million in attendance that weekend. The $20.8 million in additional revenue per weekend for 13 weeks would total $270 million in quarterly revenue. Since the opening weekend is not a good indicator for total sales, the above-mentioned scenario is unlikely.\nWhen AMC shares traded at around $37 last week at a $19.11 billion market capitalization, bulls will have trouble justifying the over 40 times price-to-sales valuation.\nCompetition From Streaming\nAMC’s 3.2 million weekend attendance is a modest start for now. The theatre chain has to contend with its audience preferring to watch blockbusters through streaming services. For example, when Disney+ released Black Widowsimultaneously, it competed for box office revenue. In August,AT&T’s(NYSE:T)The Suicide Squad will debut simultaneously on HBO Max.Hot titles like Top Gun: Maverick, No Time to Die, Due, and Eternals will not arrive until October at the earliest.\nMovie studios will need to decide if they will continue with releasing blockbusters online and in theatres simultaneously. In doing so, AMC loses out on attracting a bigger audience. Studios have more to lose. Profits are higher from theatre ticket sales plus fans buying a copy of the movie for home viewing later.\nNo More Share Dilution\nOn July 6, Chief Executive Officer Adam Aron tweeted that AMC canceled plans to sell another 25 million shares. CEO Aron said, “I think shareholders should authorize 25 million more AMC shares. But what YOU think is important to us. Many yes, many no. AMC does not want to proceed with such a split. So, we’re canceling the July vote on more shares. And no more such requests in 2021.”\nSince insiders already dumped shares in the last few months (per Tipranks), selling more shares will not matter. Ironically, AMC Entertainment is better off selling more shares to raise as much cash as it can. It could have used the funds to retire $5.4 billion in debt. Furthermore, it is cash flow negative each quarter. It could have used the extra cash to pay for leases.\nAMC may issue a convertible offering within the next 12 months. It will not need to seek investor authorization. Unsuspecting shareholders may believe the offering is not an issuance of shares. This would prevent a massive sell-off, at least temporarily. Momentum investors did not fret because the stock price would not fall suddenly. Short-sellers will not mind waiting longer for AMC shares to fall slowly.\nPrice Target and Your Takeaway\nOnly one analyst rates AMC stock as a “buy.” The highest price target is $16 and the average is $5.84,according to Tipranks. Still, AMC’s stock price movement is unpredictable on a daily basis. The stock direction shifts as market opinion changes intraday. The volatility may attract day traders but investors seeking an undervalued business with profit growth upside for the future. Investors should leave the trading to speculators, particularly those who play on momentum.\nEven in the best-case scenario, fundamentals are not getting better enough to justify buying the stock at this time. Speculators are taking high risks, too. As with nearly all meme stocks in the last year, momentum fades. When trading volume dries up, the stock often falls permanently.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":847,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805557627,"gmtCreate":1627893738469,"gmtModify":1631890345232,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wohoo ","listText":"Wohoo ","text":"Wohoo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805557627","repostId":"2156161819","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":914,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172887967,"gmtCreate":1626951880359,"gmtModify":1631890345233,"author":{"id":"3572768958430460","authorId":"3572768958430460","name":"yapyap168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e16b1f5ac1a71bd9a637c2c1b184d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572768958430460","idStr":"3572768958430460"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lol propganda lol ","listText":"Lol propganda lol ","text":"Lol propganda lol","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172887967","repostId":"1192458370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192458370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626938362,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1192458370?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 15:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192458370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - ","content":"<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7dc88222112e4655f492c56509f9d64\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"467\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.</p>\n<p>His note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.</p>\n<p>So without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"<b><i>11 point checklist for an August correction\"</i></b>, starting by noting that \"<i>the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?</i>\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.</i> \n <i><b>“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><u><b>1. Weak Seasonals</b></u>- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.<b>August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year</b>. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41d55d3d45aecb40b0f24e53de17363\" tg-width=\"694\" tg-height=\"499\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>2. Largest outflows of the year</b></u>- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d67c2e0a1590d44ff3be03c2c86c88e\" tg-width=\"645\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a58d02645303f22b7e53b58698e11f56\" tg-width=\"508\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>3. Reversal of flows predicted for August</b></u>- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,<b>August typically sees the largest outflows of the year</b>. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3308ac184f4fde82ba6c27fbcfbdd86f\" tg-width=\"579\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/005f51048f49a72597db950884245e8c\" tg-width=\"563\" tg-height=\"351\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>4. Outflows cont.</u></b>To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d98939cb6e06e80bc643fdca6801fb0a\" tg-width=\"268\" tg-height=\"474\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps</b></u>- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,<b>but what if this dynamic fades.</b>Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.<b>Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.</b></p>\n<p>Just how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Global Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T</li>\n <li>Global Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T</li>\n <li>Current Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72aadadcd243a659f1e3cc9fc8f75c1b\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5419e040f7d023061743d473ffef59d1\" tg-width=\"666\" tg-height=\"375\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fff3382eec0b783b12411fb653c6718\" tg-width=\"663\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i>Side note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?</i></p>\n<p><u><b>6. Single Stock Calls</b></u>- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Option notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.</li>\n <li>\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"</li>\n <li>\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”</li>\n <li>This is an important dynamic to monitor.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be539bca2d8b556e65d32bbe28f2abb4\" tg-width=\"676\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>7. Call Options cont.</b></u>- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.<b>Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).</b></p>\n<p>$181bln/day AMZN</p>\n<p>$ 82bln/day TSLA</p>\n<p>$ 36bln/day AAPL</p>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 26bln/day NVDA</li>\n <li>$ 14bln/day GOOGL</li>\n <li>$ 11bln/day FB</li>\n <li>$ 10bln/day MSFT</li>\n <li>$ 8bln/day SHOP</li>\n <li>$ 8bln/day GOOG</li>\n <li>$ 8bln/day NFLX</li>\n <li>$ 7bln/day BABA</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$ 4bln/day AMC</li>\n <li>$ 2bln/day GME</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------</p>\n<p><b>TOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.</b></p>\n<p>All other underlyings: $141bln/day</p>\n<p><u><i><b>Total single stock option market:</b></i></u></p>\n<ul>\n <li>$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL</li>\n <li>$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA</li>\n <li>$ 6bln/day AMC/GME</li>\n <li>$141bln/day All other underlyings</li>\n</ul>\n<p>--------------------</p>\n<p><b>$537bln/day Total</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f5678ad5b66dd918c2cbb51263c9df0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b><u>8. Option Gamma Unwinds</u></b>- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Wednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B</li>\n <li>Thursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B</li>\n <li>Friday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B</li>\n <li>Monday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B</li>\n <li>Tuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>the Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.</b>This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b78215d53696f99f4c746f296ae2d225\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>9. Systematic</b></u>- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>CTA</b>- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.</li>\n <li><b>GS models</b>-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.</li>\n <li><b>GS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level</b>= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3efe5f0b54f671b5c1b366ff5514cf5c\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/232a48ec7525cb179f6cd8bc285b7e55\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>b) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5553785fd8a0a66e717f5579ba6ee91\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>c) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9be4d94aa1cd38dad335c1424d3be626\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>d) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4068fa4e9a8c6c06f77627c9ee6e07b8\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>10. Liquidity</b></u>- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.</p>\n<ol>\n <li>next few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.</li>\n <li>Jackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.</li>\n <li>Labor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year</li>\n <li>approximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)</li>\n <li>Liquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.</li>\n</ol>\n<p>*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60db9087f28d7496be38eafbc0fa755e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><u><b>11. Buybacks</b></u>: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.</p>\n<p><i>“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“</i></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Last week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.</li>\n <li>Last week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.</li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b680be938f506ba528c382fdb7d805ba\" tg-width=\"897\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><i><b>Bottom Line:</b></i><i>Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August</i><i><b>. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.</b></i><i>The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.</i><i><b>Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short</b></i><i>. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.</i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Entering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEntering The Worst Seasonal Period Of The Year, And 10 Other Reasons Why Goldman Braces For An August Correction\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 15:19 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entering-worst-seasonal-period-year-and-10-other-reasons-why-goldman-braces-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192458370","content_text":"In a stark reversal to its bullish sentiment at the start of the month, when the bank first noted - correctly - that the S&P was entering itsbest 2-week seasonal period of the yearwhich it did between July 1 and 15 when it posted a series of new all time highs (before dumping on the 16th and the 19th)...\n\n... followed by a lengthy rationalization why \"the shorts will have to cover\", Goldman has been turning surprisingly bearish in recent days, and two days after Goldman flow trader John Flood urged Goldman clients \"not to buy this dip\" on Monday (spoiler alert: they did) his trading desk colleague Scott Rubner has published a report previewing why he anticipates a correction in the coming days and continuing through the Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August.\nHis note, from which we excerpt below, contains the key arguments behind Goldman's August \"correction\" thesis, including tactical flow of funds, an acceleration of sellers, and feedback from the GS equity trading floor.\nSo without further ado, here is Rubner, who lays out his \"11 point checklist for an August correction\", starting by noting that \"the #1 question that has hit my inbox/IB in the past 48 hours. What happens to the equity market when there is an outflow and buy demand slows?\" As we read below, the most appropriate answer is \"nothing good.\"\n\n11 point Checklist - Consensus client feedback for a quick equity risk reduction into potentially lower buy demand into Jackson hole. The consensus feedback seems to be calling for a -5% correction, which really gets to -4%. This is a recap of the talking points about to hit your inbox this week. I think this morning’s rally gets faded as buy tickets are completed early in the day.\n“Selling rallies” is the new dynamic vs. buying dips.\n\n1. Weak Seasonals- Since 1928, we just exited the best two-week period of the year. Friday’s option expiry ended the best seasonal period of the year.August seasonals are not market friendly and trend lower all of August, for the 4th worst two-week seasonal period of the year. Today you are here and Jackson hole is the low point of this chart. Since 1950, there have been 19 times in 72 years that the S&P is up at least >10% through the first half of the year. The median return for August specifically, following a strong 1H is typically down -51bps, before rallying higher.\n\n2. Largest outflows of the year- Investors allocate capital into the market in July and we have seen these record inflows. This is the biggest dynamic in the equity market this year period. Inflows continue at a record pace, annualizing at $1.2 trillion inflows for 2021. 401k inflows predominately flowed in S&P and NDX rather than ROW.\n\n3. Reversal of flows predicted for August- Equity inflows are not common in August. Over the last 30 years,August typically sees the largest outflows of the year. -15bps of AUM typically leaves stock market funds in August, on ~22 Trillion, we model -$33B worth of equities for sale.\n\n4. Outflows cont.To be clear, -$33B is not a significant $ figure when adjusted for market cap, however more important is that it’s not an inflow. The index level has remained at ATHs given inflows bid up the largest and biggest market cap index weights. On Monday we saw a large MOC imbalance for sale, this was unusual.\n\n5. Passive flows drive largest marketcaps- Passive ETFs logged the best full year of inflows on record, in just the first half of the year. (+500b). I watch the tape every day register large MOC imbalances to buy at 3:50pm EST,but what if this dynamic fades.Remember $1 inflow into SPY flows $.23 cents into top 5 companies and $1 inflow into QQQ flows $.41 cents into top 5. If inflows flip to outflows you will no longer see broad index dynamic.Then investors need to decide which sector becomes the funding source for outflows.\nJust how important has this been for the S&P 500? Important!\n\nGlobal Equity: 1-year: +$600B passive (IN) vs. $0.0B active (OUT) = >$600B.\nGlobal Equity: 5-year: +$2.30T passive (IN) vs. -$1.90T active (OUT) = >$4.2T\nGlobal Equity: 10-year: +$4T passive (IN) vs. -$3.0T active (OUT) = >$7.0T\nCurrent Global Equity Active AUM of $10.099T exceeds > Current Global Equity Passive AUM $7.225 T.\n\n\nSide note: ETFs represented 36% of the notional executed volumes, last levels since in March/April 2020. (YTD average) = 24%. Did you see the massive volumes in SQQQ Monday (3x short QQQ)?\n6. Single Stock Calls- This is set up is very similar to July and August 2020 blow-off top as a result of call option trading. Reminder, S&P sold off -392bps in September 2020 after call option volumes started to fade.\n\nOption notional has averaged an all-time record of +$550B per day in July. The top 3 traded stocks (AAPL, AMZN, and TSLA) make up $300B of daily volumes. Breadth in both options and stocks is low.\n\"Of 4000 Tradeable Single Stock options, the top 3 names make up 56% of the daily avg notional traded. Adding in the next 7, that ratio jumps to 72%.\"\n\"Said another way the top 10 underliers trade 3x more notional on an average day than the bottom 3990”\nThis is an important dynamic to monitor.\n\n\n7. Call Options cont.- Retail has pivoted from trading weekly call options on GME and AMC - only $6B combined notional per day to the stay-at-home playbook. The names with the highest daily option trading are also the largest index weights. In addition to ETF flows, the retail call option buying frenzy also takes the street short weekly gamma on single names. 75% of single stock options traded today have an expiry of two weeks or less.Said another way, given GS YOLO risk sentiment basket has rolled over, does AAPL need to catch down next (or at least not see YOLO flows).\n$181bln/day AMZN\n$ 82bln/day TSLA\n$ 36bln/day AAPL\n--------------\nTOTAL TSLA/AMZN/AAPL: $299bln/day ------- What happens if call volume in mega cap tech declines?\n\n$ 26bln/day NVDA\n$ 14bln/day GOOGL\n$ 11bln/day FB\n$ 10bln/day MSFT\n$ 8bln/day SHOP\n$ 8bln/day GOOG\n$ 8bln/day NFLX\n$ 7bln/day BABA\n\n--------------\nTOTAL GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA: $90bln/day\n\n$ 4bln/day AMC\n$ 2bln/day GME\n\n--------------\nTOTAL AMC/GME: $6bln/day ------- No Mo’ Yolo? See chart below.\nAll other underlyings: $141bln/day\nTotal single stock option market:\n\n$299bln/day TSLA/AMZN/AAPL\n$ 90bln/day GOOG/GOOGL/MSFT/FB/NFLX/NVDA/SHOP/BABA\n$ 6bln/day AMC/GME\n$141bln/day All other underlyings\n\n--------------------\n$537bln/day Total\n\n8. Option Gamma Unwinds- Option Expiry just rolled off -85% of the market long gamma. The market now has the ability to move more freely and trade less long gamma. Everyday last week the market would rally into the bell as dealers re-hedge their gamma (buying the dips). I get worried about summer end-of-day liquidity without gamma hedging and passive demand. I think there will be also a “institutional” demand to buy hedges into Jackson Hole fulling removing the long gamma taking the street short to hedge downside. We have seen more puts and put spreads on the desk this week than any week of 2021.\n\nWednesday (7/14) SPX gamma = +$4,625B\nThursday (7/15) SPX gamma = +$3,620B\nFriday (7/16) SPX gamma = +$3,136B\nMonday (7/19) SPX gamma = +$2,698B\nTuesday (7/20) SPX Gamma = +$713B.\n\nthe Long S&P 500 gamma has been reduced by -85% in the past 5 days taking dealers less long gamma.This dynamic changes market behavior and we are seeing little demand to systematically overwrite from here even despite the move higher in vols. This is new.\n\n9. Systematic- Non-economic is already near the max exposure and have little scope to add further from here. No threshold levels have triggered so far, but it is important to note the lack of ability to add from here, which asymmetrically skews the downside.\n\nCTA- 90% percentile on 1-year rank, 84% percentile on 3-yr rank.\nGS models-$9B of equities for sale over the next week. CTA’s are sellers in an up tape, down tape, down big tape. That’s not common. Check out big asymmetry to the downside over the next 1 month.\nGS short term CTA ES1 Flip Level= $4,257.90. We tripped this circuit breaker yesterday, but are higher this am. I expect GS sell expectations to increase.\n\n\nb) Vol Control - 86% percentile on 1-year rank, 75% percentile on 3-yr rank. FYI. SPX Put/Call Ratio hit a fresh 1 year high yesterday.\n\nc) Risk Parity - 100% percentile on 1-year rank, 53% percentile on 3-yr rank.\n\nd) Total Systematic - 92% percentile on 1-year rank, 80% percentile on 3-yr rank. This is important. This non-emotional demand is at the max and will be sellers lower.\n\n10. Liquidity- The unofficial Rubner out of office outlook (OOO) reply meter. My note last week has week had the largest out of office kickbacks to the tune of “see you in a few weeks” or “gone fishing”. The upcoming calendar into Jackson Hole is important.\n\nnext few weeks, extended vacation schedule first time in 12 months, etc, moved forward because Jackson hole.\nJackson Hole, August 26 (Thursday) - August 28 (Saturday) – Friday is the likely the key calendar, but potentially Saturday will be important. This moves hedges to the following week.\nLabor Day, September 6 (Monday exchange holiday) - late this year\napproximate First day of Children’s school, September 7 (Tuesday)\nLiquidity = August Summer – ZZZZ. Top book liquidity declined SUBSTANTIALLY into the sell off yesterday.\n\n*** despite being ranked 10 in the checklist. This is really chart #1. Liquidity dried up substantially yesterday on the screens. This chart peaked at $36M last Monday to $10.810M yesterday. This is a drop of $25M $ or ~70% in on screws liquidity in 1 week.\n\n11. Buybacks: Buybacks are here, but so is equity issuance, which neutralizes the buyback impulse. As corporates meet corporates. From Sales and trading colleague, John Flood in his most recent trading note.\n“It has been a paper party and this paper is getting harder to place. Last week we priced 11 registered deals in the U.S. ($3b notional) and this week already working on another 18 ($10b). This is especially noteworthy while in the depths of July.“\n\nLast week there was $6.2 billion in equity issuance, compared with the July weekly average of $3.4 billion since 2000.\nLast week there were 27 equity deals brought to market, compared with the July average of 15 deals per week since 2000.\n\n\nBottom Line:Keep Tactical Flow of Funds Checklist on your radar for August. The technical market structure dynamics changes substantially during August. I think there will be a dip (-5%) and it is meant to be bought heading late into Jackson Hole.The consensus is calling for a larger equity market correction, I do not see it given the amount of capital in the system. I change my tone if we trigger key levels to the downside as sellers are lower. If August outflows actually happen, I think tech underperforms cyclical value reopen given high concentration and largest passive impact.Once we see the first outflow in August, this will be the macro trigger for a tactical short. Stay tuned and keep an eye on liquidity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1146,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}