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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-09-18
  $诺基亚(NOK)$也就把老诺成功卖在了高点
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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-09-11
  $Synthetic Biologics Inc(SYN)$应该做个T
  3,490 评论
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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-08-09
  $Nxt-ID Inc.(NXTD)$慌毛，睡过了，忘了挂，错过两次行情了[愤怒]
  4,661 1
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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-07-24
  说白了，老外太实诚，不刷单，没气氛，而国人恰恰又是喜欢看热闹的，就这样水土不服
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,407 评论
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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-07-07
  $理想汽车(LI)$从最大跌幅强势V回成本，继续持有
  3,312 评论
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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-06-01
  明显不看好韭菜反应[笑哭] [笑哭]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  3,179 评论
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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-05-14
  $诺基亚(NOK)$没有补货，之前赔的最多的，现在居然是最少的？！[晕]
  5,496 4
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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-04-30
  当下看，在国内一线限购，三四线房地产市场趋近饱和的状态下，最好的投资渠道还真就只有股债市这些权益类资产投资了，加上未来几年国内资本市场会加速改革，理论上会有一波红利
  股票的投资回报一定更好么？
  在所有可投资的资产中，哪个资产能给你最好的回报？绝大部分读者朋友，很可能会告诉你：那还用说，当然是股票啦。举例来说，美国股市在1900到2020年的真实回报（扣除通胀后）为每年6.6%，同期的长期政
  股票的投资回报一定更好么？
  3,499 评论
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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-04-16
  4月初这一轮指数大涨所持个股大跌[捂脸] 亏损远远超出3月纳指调整阶段，市场风口已变该🈹️的🈹️该等的等
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- 再见猫王再见猫王
  ·2021-04-07
  $Churchill Capital Corp IV(CCIV)$这种涨指数不涨个股的行情只能等
  1,717 评论
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水土不服","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174225871","repostId":"2153933726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140197090,"gmtCreate":1625635536810,"gmtModify":1625635536810,"author":{"id":"3572932824677354","authorId":"3572932824677354","name":"再见猫王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bc3a6dc6d81facc3f689ef7d816057","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572932824677354","authorIdStr":"3572932824677354"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>从最大跌幅强势V回成本，继续持有","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOK\">$诺基亚(NOK)$</a>没有补货，之前赔的最多的，现在居然是最少的？！[晕]&nbsp;","text":"$诺基亚(NOK)$没有补货，之前赔的最多的，现在居然是最少的？！[晕]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9482332f52ac5887cae32e514ab6853","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198645010","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5496,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3468131483207819","authorId":"3468131483207819","name":"djNip","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3468131483207819","authorIdStr":"3468131483207819"},"content":"半仓诺基亚，过年前一直骂这货不争气，后来科技股开始崩盘，多亏这货几乎没怎么亏","text":"半仓诺基亚，过年前一直骂这货不争气，后来科技股开始崩盘，多亏这货几乎没怎么亏","html":"半仓诺基亚，过年前一直骂这货不争气，后来科技股开始崩盘，多亏这货几乎没怎么亏"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":103856483,"gmtCreate":1619770400042,"gmtModify":1619770400042,"author":{"id":"3572932824677354","authorId":"3572932824677354","name":"再见猫王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bc3a6dc6d81facc3f689ef7d816057","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572932824677354","authorIdStr":"3572932824677354"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当下看，在国内一线限购，三四线房地产市场趋近饱和的状态下，最好的投资渠道还真就只有股债市这些权益类资产投资了，加上未来几年国内资本市场会加速改革，理论上会有一波红利","listText":"当下看，在国内一线限购，三四线房地产市场趋近饱和的状态下，最好的投资渠道还真就只有股债市这些权益类资产投资了，加上未来几年国内资本市场会加速改革，理论上会有一波红利","text":"当下看，在国内一线限购，三四线房地产市场趋近饱和的状态下，最好的投资渠道还真就只有股债市这些权益类资产投资了，加上未来几年国内资本市场会加速改革，理论上会有一波红利","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103856483","repostId":"1142861075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142861075","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619752830,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1142861075?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 11:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"股票的投资回报一定更好么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142861075","media":"伍治坚证据主义","summary":"在所有可投资的资产中，哪个资产能给你最好的回报？绝大部分读者朋友，很可能会告诉你：那还用说，当然是股票啦。\n举例来说，美国股市在1900到2020年的真实回报（扣除通胀后）为每年6.6%，同期的长期政","content":"<p>在所有可投资的资产中，哪个资产能给你最好的回报？绝大部分读者朋友，很可能会告诉你：那还用说，当然是股票啦。</p>\n<p>举例来说，美国股市在1900到2020年的真实回报（扣除通胀后）为每年6.6%，同期的长期政府债券回报为2.1%。英国股市在1900到2020年的真实回报为每年5.4%，同期的长期政府债券回报为2%。中国股市在1993到2020年的真实回报为每年5.3%，同期的长期政府债券回报为2.2%。也就是说，在中、美、英这样的大国金融历史上，股票回报都明显超过债券。</p>\n<p>1985年，美国的两位学者（Mehra and Prescott, 1985）发现美国历史上的股票回报要远远高于短期和长期政府债券的回报，并将之称为股权溢价（Equity Risk Premium）。而他们对于股权溢价的解释，是股票的风险更高。</p>\n<p>股票和债券的最大区别在于，债券的回报是有上限的，也就是利息回报，而股票的回报在理论上则没有上限。与之对应的，如果购买了投资级别的债券，那么投资者损失本金的概率是很小的。而任何一家公司，哪怕像微软、苹果这样的巨无霸，其股价也是高度波动的。股民在几个月内损失30%甚至更多是很正常的。也就是说，跟债券相比，股票的风险更高，因此需要给予投资者更高的投资回报，否则大家都去买债券，就没有人购买股票了。</p>\n<p>这样的解释逻辑，乍一看似乎挺有道理。正所谓天下没有免费的午餐。只有承担了更高的风险，才可能获得更大的回报。如果想要得到高回报，就需要承担更大的风险。在这里，回报和风险就像一对孪生兄弟，互不分离。</p>\n<p>问题在于，风险和回报成正比的逻辑，并不一定是普世真理。比如研究（Jorion and Goetzmann, 2002）显示，股票回报远比债券回报好，只是在某些国家中存在的现象，而非全球各国的普遍情况。比如在1921到1996年的75年间，美国的股票比债券的年回报好上5%左右（即所谓的股权溢价），但其他国家的股权溢价则没有那么高。比如同期法国的股票年回报，仅比债券好上1%。而日本、比利时和西班牙在那75年间，股票的回报反而不如债券。</p>\n<p>遍观全世界，股权溢价为负的例子，比比皆是。比如截止1996年的60年左右，哥伦比亚股票的年回报比债券差4%，印度和委内瑞拉股票的年回报比债券差2%。类似的情况还包括菲律宾、阿根廷、波兰等国家。</p>\n<p>简而言之，并不是每个国家的股票表现都那么好。在很多国家，股票的回报甚至不如债券。风险又高，回报还差，完全不符合“回报和风险匹配”的逻辑。也就是说，当我们说股票的投资回报更好时，还需要加上一个定语：在某些国家。</p>\n<p>什么样的国家，其股票回报比其他资产更好呢？答案是“赢家”。深入来看，上市公司的股票价格，在短期可能受到投机因素的影响，但是长期来看，主要体现了公司的生产效率和竞争力。能够在全球市场打败竞争对手，成为行业领头羊的公司，背后必定有一个充满活力和竞争力的政府。通常来说，这样的国家没有遭受太大的政治动荡和战争破坏，或者有能力迅速从战争创伤中恢复过来。她有一定的科技和生产力优势，国内有运作高效的资本市场，相对透明和公平的法律体系，确保各种投资者的利益受到保护。很多人认同“买股票就是赌国运”的道理，背后也是相同的逻辑。</p>\n<p>如果我们回顾过去100多年的近代史，美国恰恰是最大的赢家。她是唯一一个在两次大战中本土没有遭受攻击的大国，其科技、军事实力和生产力在两次世界大战后反而大幅度提升。二战结束后，美国的军事和科技优势延展到经济领域，在全世界范围确定了以美元为核心的国际贸易和金融体系规则。而在苏联解体后，世界格局从美苏争霸变为美国一家独大，其领先优势一直持续到今天。因此在这段历史中，美国股市的回报最好，并不是偶然的，而是有很大的必然性。与其说股票能给予投资者更好的回报，不如说美国公司在背后强有力的政府的支持下，在全世界范围的商业竞争中成为最大的赢家，同时也给了这些公司大股东最好的投资回报。</p>\n<p>把时钟调回到100多年前的1900年，如果投资者押中了美国股票，那么他会收到巨大的投资回报。但是他如果看走眼，去押了日本、德国、或者拉丁美洲国家的股票，那么他的投资回报就会差很多，甚至血本无归。研究（Golez and Koudijs, 2016）发现，从1871到2015年的144年间，美国股票的股权溢价为6%左右。而从1825到1870年的45年间，英国股票的股权溢价为3.5%左右。这些统计发现进一步证实：只有那些“赢”的国家，其股票回报才会明显好于债券。而国家的竞争优势越大，其股权溢价也就越大。</p>\n<p>从长期来看，股票可以给投资者更好的投资回报。但前提是，股市所在的国家需要成为国际竞争中的赢家，才能向投资者提供更好的回报。如果不幸买到输家的股票，那么投资者的回报就会很糟糕，甚至很可能不如债券。对于股票投资者来说，我们需要有长期持有股票的耐心，但同时也需要确保自己持有“对”的股票，才可能获得一开始期望的更好的投资回报。</p>","source":"lsy1587655791830","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股票的投资回报一定更好么？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股票的投资回报一定更好么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-30 11:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q7nFE8HFs28Ve4pMEbJsNg><strong>伍治坚证据主义</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在所有可投资的资产中，哪个资产能给你最好的回报？绝大部分读者朋友，很可能会告诉你：那还用说，当然是股票啦。\n举例来说，美国股市在1900到2020年的真实回报（扣除通胀后）为每年6.6%，同期的长期政府债券回报为2.1%。英国股市在1900到2020年的真实回报为每年5.4%，同期的长期政府债券回报为2%。中国股市在1993到2020年的真实回报为每年5.3%，同期的长期政府债券回报为2.2%。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q7nFE8HFs28Ve4pMEbJsNg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9153adf328cdbdfbb656ed3026a6175","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q7nFE8HFs28Ve4pMEbJsNg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142861075","content_text":"在所有可投资的资产中，哪个资产能给你最好的回报？绝大部分读者朋友，很可能会告诉你：那还用说，当然是股票啦。\n举例来说，美国股市在1900到2020年的真实回报（扣除通胀后）为每年6.6%，同期的长期政府债券回报为2.1%。英国股市在1900到2020年的真实回报为每年5.4%，同期的长期政府债券回报为2%。中国股市在1993到2020年的真实回报为每年5.3%，同期的长期政府债券回报为2.2%。也就是说，在中、美、英这样的大国金融历史上，股票回报都明显超过债券。\n1985年，美国的两位学者（Mehra and Prescott, 1985）发现美国历史上的股票回报要远远高于短期和长期政府债券的回报，并将之称为股权溢价（Equity Risk Premium）。而他们对于股权溢价的解释，是股票的风险更高。\n股票和债券的最大区别在于，债券的回报是有上限的，也就是利息回报，而股票的回报在理论上则没有上限。与之对应的，如果购买了投资级别的债券，那么投资者损失本金的概率是很小的。而任何一家公司，哪怕像微软、苹果这样的巨无霸，其股价也是高度波动的。股民在几个月内损失30%甚至更多是很正常的。也就是说，跟债券相比，股票的风险更高，因此需要给予投资者更高的投资回报，否则大家都去买债券，就没有人购买股票了。\n这样的解释逻辑，乍一看似乎挺有道理。正所谓天下没有免费的午餐。只有承担了更高的风险，才可能获得更大的回报。如果想要得到高回报，就需要承担更大的风险。在这里，回报和风险就像一对孪生兄弟，互不分离。\n问题在于，风险和回报成正比的逻辑，并不一定是普世真理。比如研究（Jorion and Goetzmann, 2002）显示，股票回报远比债券回报好，只是在某些国家中存在的现象，而非全球各国的普遍情况。比如在1921到1996年的75年间，美国的股票比债券的年回报好上5%左右（即所谓的股权溢价），但其他国家的股权溢价则没有那么高。比如同期法国的股票年回报，仅比债券好上1%。而日本、比利时和西班牙在那75年间，股票的回报反而不如债券。\n遍观全世界，股权溢价为负的例子，比比皆是。比如截止1996年的60年左右，哥伦比亚股票的年回报比债券差4%，印度和委内瑞拉股票的年回报比债券差2%。类似的情况还包括菲律宾、阿根廷、波兰等国家。\n简而言之，并不是每个国家的股票表现都那么好。在很多国家，股票的回报甚至不如债券。风险又高，回报还差，完全不符合“回报和风险匹配”的逻辑。也就是说，当我们说股票的投资回报更好时，还需要加上一个定语：在某些国家。\n什么样的国家，其股票回报比其他资产更好呢？答案是“赢家”。深入来看，上市公司的股票价格，在短期可能受到投机因素的影响，但是长期来看，主要体现了公司的生产效率和竞争力。能够在全球市场打败竞争对手，成为行业领头羊的公司，背后必定有一个充满活力和竞争力的政府。通常来说，这样的国家没有遭受太大的政治动荡和战争破坏，或者有能力迅速从战争创伤中恢复过来。她有一定的科技和生产力优势，国内有运作高效的资本市场，相对透明和公平的法律体系，确保各种投资者的利益受到保护。很多人认同“买股票就是赌国运”的道理，背后也是相同的逻辑。\n如果我们回顾过去100多年的近代史，美国恰恰是最大的赢家。她是唯一一个在两次大战中本土没有遭受攻击的大国，其科技、军事实力和生产力在两次世界大战后反而大幅度提升。二战结束后，美国的军事和科技优势延展到经济领域，在全世界范围确定了以美元为核心的国际贸易和金融体系规则。而在苏联解体后，世界格局从美苏争霸变为美国一家独大，其领先优势一直持续到今天。因此在这段历史中，美国股市的回报最好，并不是偶然的，而是有很大的必然性。与其说股票能给予投资者更好的回报，不如说美国公司在背后强有力的政府的支持下，在全世界范围的商业竞争中成为最大的赢家，同时也给了这些公司大股东最好的投资回报。\n把时钟调回到100多年前的1900年，如果投资者押中了美国股票，那么他会收到巨大的投资回报。但是他如果看走眼，去押了日本、德国、或者拉丁美洲国家的股票，那么他的投资回报就会差很多，甚至血本无归。研究（Golez and Koudijs, 2016）发现，从1871到2015年的144年间，美国股票的股权溢价为6%左右。而从1825到1870年的45年间，英国股票的股权溢价为3.5%左右。这些统计发现进一步证实：只有那些“赢”的国家，其股票回报才会明显好于债券。而国家的竞争优势越大，其股权溢价也就越大。\n从长期来看，股票可以给投资者更好的投资回报。但前提是，股市所在的国家需要成为国际竞争中的赢家，才能向投资者提供更好的回报。如果不幸买到输家的股票，那么投资者的回报就会很糟糕，甚至很可能不如债券。对于股票投资者来说，我们需要有长期持有股票的耐心，但同时也需要确保自己持有“对”的股票，才可能获得一开始期望的更好的投资回报。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":0.9,"399006":0.9,"000001.SH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":347774357,"gmtCreate":1618533723479,"gmtModify":1618533723479,"author":{"id":"3572932824677354","authorId":"3572932824677354","name":"再见猫王","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bc3a6dc6d81facc3f689ef7d816057","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572932824677354","authorIdStr":"3572932824677354"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"4月初这一轮 指数大涨 所持个股大跌[捂脸]&nbsp;亏损远远超出3月纳指调整阶段，市场风口已变该🈹️的🈹️该等的等","listText":"4月初这一轮 指数大涨 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