个人中心 - 老虎社区

VD2021

IP属地：安徽

帖子 · 20帖子 · 20
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- VD2021VD2021
  ·2023-04-04
  $AMC院线(AMC)$ 此股已经死了！散户绝对要团结！坚决不买，让狗庄自己玩！
  2,589 1
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- VD2021VD2021
  ·2022-07-22
  $特斯拉(TSLA)$全部都在跌，就特斯拉在涨，主力还在拉！下半夜肯定暴跌！
  4,602 1
  5
  分享
  举报
- VD2021VD2021
  ·2022-04-29
  美国是4.3%，比中国低0.5%
  美国GDP转负，美股为何视而不见？
  摘要：市场对GDP转负反应平淡，主要因为消费和投资仍有韧性！当前资产表现均体现出市场对美国经济增速的放缓并不担心。投资要点美国1季度GDP意外转负，库存、净出口和政府开支是主要拖累。美国1季度实际年化
  美国GDP转负，美股为何视而不见？
  2,395 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- VD2021VD2021
  ·2022-04-22
  $ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$只能长期持有了，不想割肉！
  6,329 7
  3
  分享
  举报
- VD2021VD2021
  ·2021-09-14
  $燃料电池能源(FCEL)$换手率为什么这么低？
  2,642 3
  1
  分享
  举报
- VD2021VD2021
  ·2021-08-10
  $Scworx Corp(WORX)$总算解套了！
  2,973 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- VD2021VD2021
  ·2021-08-03
  $Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.(OTLK)$上不来了，一直2.8～3之间，收盘！明天继续跌，骗炮的！
  2,985 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- VD2021VD2021
  ·2021-07-21
  $Chembio Diagnostics(CEMI)$进去就被套！
  3,165 评论
  2
  分享
  举报
- VD2021VD2021
  ·2021-06-11
  $蔚来(NIO)$应该在46左右才对！
  2,674 评论
  3
  分享
  举报
- VD2021VD2021
  ·2021-06-11
  $小鹏汽车(XPEV)$和蔚来的价格一直保持7&8美元的差距，蔚来跌了，他也快了！
  2,586 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3573806609850830","uuid":"3573806609850830","gmtCreate":1610712586286,"gmtModify":1620740939847,"name":"VD2021","pinyin":"vd2021","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":3,"headSize":96,"tweetSize":20,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":4,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2025.02.24","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.07.14","exceedPercentage":"60.88%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc-2","templateUuid":"02aa7f16703b4ce4ace6f1a7665789cc","name":"知识探索家","description":"观看学堂课程满20节","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63cc10a4789c3eaa019b225a55136cf9","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f0cbf3ae1b0a4593ddb3434df74ce0","grayImgUrl":null,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.06","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":2006},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.07%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":6,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"安徽","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":5,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":653169498,"gmtCreate":1680622947115,"gmtModify":1680622948219,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$&nbsp;</a> 此股已经死了！散户绝对要团结！坚决不买，让狗庄自己玩！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$&nbsp;</a> 此股已经死了！散户绝对要团结！坚决不买，让狗庄自己玩！","text":"$AMC院线(AMC)$ 此股已经死了！散户绝对要团结！坚决不买，让狗庄自己玩！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/653169498","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2589,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3463057643110414","authorId":"3463057643110414","name":"躺平躺到地狱了","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5631398706333ec0e71a2194d3b45cc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3463057643110414","authorIdStr":"3463057643110414"},"content":"元旦快乐！感谢支持！祝:2024年交大运，发大财！","text":"元旦快乐！感谢支持！祝:2024年交大运，发大财！","html":"元旦快乐！感谢支持！祝:2024年交大运，发大财！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":686725410,"gmtCreate":1658500319035,"gmtModify":1703748895104,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>全部都在跌，就特斯拉在涨，主力还在拉！下半夜肯定暴跌！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>全部都在跌，就特斯拉在涨，主力还在拉！下半夜肯定暴跌！","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$全部都在跌，就特斯拉在涨，主力还在拉！下半夜肯定暴跌！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686725410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":618759970,"gmtCreate":1651210147803,"gmtModify":1651210959988,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国是4.3%，比中国低0.5%","listText":"美国是4.3%，比中国低0.5%","text":"美国是4.3%，比中国低0.5%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/618759970","repostId":"2231762414","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2231762414","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1651202465,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2231762414?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-04-29 11:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国GDP转负，美股为何视而不见？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2231762414","media":"格隆汇","summary":"摘要：市场对GDP转负反应平淡，主要因为消费和投资仍有韧性！当前资产表现均体现出市场对美国经济增速的放缓并不担心。投资要点美国1季度GDP意外转负，库存、净出口和政府开支是主要拖累。美国1季度实际年化","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>摘要：市场对GDP转负反应平淡，主要因为消费和投资仍有韧性！当前资产表现均体现出市场对美国经济增速的放缓并不担心。</b></blockquote><p><b>投资要点</b></p><p><b>美国1季度GDP意外转负，库存、净出口和政府开支是主要拖累。</b></p><p>美国1季度实际年化环比增速从6.9%回落至-1.4%，不及预期1%；</p><p>主要拖累是库存（环比拉动-0.7%）和净出口（环比拉动-3.9%）；</p><p><b>哪里不及预期？净出口和库存。</b></p><p><b>净出口：</b>出口转弱叠加进口高增导致净出口环比再次转负；</p><p><b>库存：</b>批发商汽车库存去化、零售商其他库存回落；</p><p><b>市场为何反映平淡：消费和投资仍有韧性。</b></p><p><b>市场对GDP转负反应平淡：</b>数据公布后，加息预期小幅跳升，美债收益率上行，美股高开后小幅下跌，后回归上涨。</p><p><b>消费：</b>耐用品和服务拉动整体消费小幅走强，后续预期主线由商品进一步向服务切换，超额储蓄消耗殆尽后消费下行压力将进一步加大；</p><p><b>投资：</b>设备和建筑投资拉动整体投资小幅走强，企业层面产出仍在修复，且部分企业反馈正用自动化来解决劳动力短缺问题；地产层面当前供给不足仍然是销售的主要限制，后期关注房价高企及利率上行对需求的负面冲击。</p><p><b>展望：美国衰退与否，关键在于联储重回宽松时点。</b></p><p>即使不考虑联储收紧，美国经济本身也将面临“财政悬崖”；</p><p>由于本轮居民和企业资产负债表仍健康，年内衰退言之过早；</p><p>联储正以“衰退式加息”给需求降温，其政策操作重心何时转回需求（即转向宽松）将决定经济能否软着陆；</p><p>超预期下行的风险：联储收紧冲击股市进而对居民消费带来额外的负反馈、疫情扰动和俄乌冲突给中国和欧洲带来的需求下行压力。</p><p><b>风险提示：美国需求超预期回落，美国通胀持续性超预期，美联储货币政策调整超预期。</b></p><p><b>正文</b></p><h3>美国一季度GDP转负，低于市场预期</h3><p><b>美国1季度GDP意外转负，库存、净出口和政府开支是主要拖累。</b>美国2022年1季度实际GDP年化环比增速从6.9%回落至-1.4%，不及预期1%。从分项看，主要拖累来自库存（环比拉动由5.3%回落至-0.7%）、净出口（环比拉动由-0.7%进一步下探至-3.9%）。而消费和固定资产投资则较为稳健：消费环比拉动从1.7%升至1.8%，固定资产投资则由0.5%升至1.3%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5059cf7ba30b665480143a17e0c7edc\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3>哪里不及预期：净出口和库存</h3><p><b>净出口：出口转弱叠加进口高增</b></p><p><b>导致净出口环比再次转负</b></p><p><b>外需转弱叠加进口高增，净出口贡献转负。</b>美国出口环比拉动由4季度的2.4%再次转负至-0.7%，进口则继续维持高位，由于进口对净出口分项是负贡献，因此环比看维持为约-3.1%的拖累。而进口来看，受到石油等工业原材料的拉动，美国1季度进口持续保持高位，也对GDP净出口分项形成负贡献。美国1季度出口转负可能也体现在来自欧洲和中国需求的弱化，后续美国出口或继续承压。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/023cb04e653290093b3fc1f0541ab7dd\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03a72123dbea7dbd4fc404334fa4a959\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"584\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>库存：批发零售库存为主要拖累</b></p><p><b>库存变动分项转负，主要受到批发商和零售商库存去化的拖累。</b>拆分库存变化分项来看，美国1季度库存变动减少主要是由于批发商和零售商库存变动减少导致的。批发商库存的去化主要体现在耐用品库存变化的减少；而零售商库存的减少主要体现在交通工具及零部件分项以及其他零售。整体来看，美国1季度库存变化分项的拖累主要是由于以汽车为代表的耐用品去库存导致的，由于持续的芯片等原材料供应链问题，汽车等耐用品生产受到掣肘。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a003431993e17b56c809d20d8e0fcc90\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d70140b7d7b3abe8ca2f9cfdac75ac5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3>市场为何反映平淡：消费和投资仍有韧性</h3><p><b>数据公布后，加息预期跳升，美债收益率上行，美股高开。</b>虽然1季度GDP增速转负，市场对于数据却反应平淡。加息预期小幅跳升，当前期货隐含5月加息概率为203%；10年期美债小幅上行至2.88%后在高位震荡；美股高开后轻微下行，而后回归上涨。当前资产表现均体现出市场对美国经济增速的放缓并不担心。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5550133edc2281dafacc83a0fc57a4f6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"568\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>消费：财政余韵仍在，预期主线将</b></p><p><b>继续由商品向服务切换题</b></p><p><b>1季度耐用品和服务消费小幅走强，非耐用品消费拉动则转负。</b>拆分来看，1季度耐用品消费环比拉动从0.1%小幅升至0.2%，服务消费环比拉动从0.5%小幅升至0.6%，非耐用品环比拉动则从0%转负为-0.2%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0c844007cf2d634fdc02c4512e53d11\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939355d4fe297e6137474703b0c2a765\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"567\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>往后看，商品小幅预期继续回落，后续消费斜率主要取决于服务。</b>正如我们在2022年海外年报《缝缝补补又一年》中所详细阐述的，从缺口填补来看，美国商品消费已经透支，然而服务消费仍有缺口，随着美国全面放松口罩政策，出行数据，美国消费的支柱将进一步从商品切换到服务，因此，美国消费的韧性将取决于服务消费。</p><p><b>伴随着超额储蓄逐步消耗，居民消费下半年的逆风可能将更加明显。</b>本财政刺激导致美国居民收入大幅高于疫情前水平，美国居民增加超额储蓄约2.4万亿美元。考虑不同收入群体的消费偏好不同，其中约有1.2万亿美元能被用于消费，约占美国年消费额的7%，我们估算下来，超额储蓄对消费的影响可能将持续到年中。<b>一个可以观测超额储蓄消耗的数据是美国居民的信用卡消费，居民信用卡消费额自2021年年底以来，开始显著超过以往的季节性，</b>这说明虽然有的人花钱快、有的人花钱慢，但是居民口袋里的钱正在逐步消耗，而当这部分财政“余韵”消失，消费的下行压力将进一步凸显。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f7c6847ef0d93c9432b29e657c5164f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe6d209f4cc9c058203a872985ccbdd9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"576\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e25bc02e688786e622f3ed603d66421\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f165e45158879089be775f218b11e77\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>投资：企业意愿尚可，</b></p><p><b>地产仍处在供不应求的卖方市场</b></p><p><b>1季度设备投资走强，建筑投资环比拖累收窄，软件和住宅则基本持平。</b>拆分来看，1季度非住宅投资环比拉动从0.6%升至1.8%，其中设备投资环比拉动从0.3%升至1.3%，建筑投资环比拖累从-0.3%收窄至0%，软件投资拉动则由0.7%消费回落至0.6%；住宅投资环比拉动则维持在0.1%</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0df0ed9f7e9eb3248ca4eed448be8fd1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"583\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>企业目前资本开支意愿尚可，劳动力市场供不应求使得自动化投资增加。</b>企业投资层面，我们看到美国当前制造业订单需求仍然有韧性，工业产出和产能利用率仍在填坑，一季度整体企业资本开支意愿是有所修复的。尤其是，联储4月的褐皮书反映，疫情和刺激支票导致的劳动力市场招不到人的情况，使得部分企业增加了自动化的投资。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8110339f1c50f09bbb4cd9d107a5fcca\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/495ccd40721182dc94506e82c8b86e2a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"737\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4e82c40c895e505396d9fbdc664431f\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>地产仍处于供不应求的卖方市场，但关注利率上行对需求的影响。</b>地产方面来看，目前的销售制约可能还在供给端，天气、木材以及劳动力短缺限制了建筑活动，导致房屋库存持续处在低位，呈现供不应求的局面，进而导致房价高企。<b>但值得注意的是，本轮美国地产需求的修复力——居家办公以及低利率，都正在遭遇逆风，叠加高房价，这意味着，需求端未来也将降温。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d912ad3afa5c70d0eaeaf065b6aa774a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"424\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b23f27f9ce40edffdf394208c2305a6\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"529\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><h3>展望：美国衰退与否，关键在于联储重回宽松时点</h3><p><b>即使不考虑联储收紧，美国经济本身也将面临“财政悬崖”。</b>除了联储的宽松，疫后美国的复苏还来自其三轮财政刺激总额达5万亿美元的财政刺激。但根据CBO的预测，2022年多轮刺激的财政支出力度将不及2021年的一半，支出总额将在6000亿美元左右。<b>这意味着，即使不考虑美联储的快速收紧，美国经济本身也将遭遇类似2010年的“财政悬崖”。尤其是超额储蓄消耗完之后，财政的基数效应将尤为突出。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d46d1562932cc760c4ec257280230e6f\" tg-width=\"1007\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>但和此前危机相比，美国私人部门资产负债表较健康，年内衰退言之过早。</b>与2000年和2008年相比，本轮最大的不同在于没有出现金融机构的资产负债表崩塌从而陷入衰退的情况。美国当前居民和企业资产负债表相对比较健康，与此前两轮衰退相比保护垫相对较厚。从联储根据10Y-<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MMM\">3M</a>利差测算的衰退概率来看，未来一年内陷入衰退的可能性较低，目前不到10%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2f7265b806006dd9d8bde6c861c466e\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"764\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa16c92b9ccc3404b880582522645b91\" tg-width=\"1008\" tg-height=\"538\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>联储正以“衰退式加息”给需求降温，其政策操作将决定经济能否软着陆。</b>目前，联储的货币政策重心显然还在通胀层面——由于前期落后曲线，当前市场对年内超过250bp的加息预期也反映了联储纠偏的决心。对于联储而言，其无法控制供给端，因此快速上调利率也是通过给需求端降温来试图降低价格压力。从3月的联储纪要来看，联储对需求的前景并非视而不见，只是希望快速推进货币政策正常化以应对未来可能超预期下行的压力。<b>从这个角度来看，联储能否在美国经济陷入衰退之前重新转回宽松，将是本轮美国经济能否实现软着陆的关键。</b></p><p><b>超预期下行风险：股市对联储持续收紧的额外负反馈、中欧的下行压力。</b>我们此前持续提示，危机后（尤其是疫情以来）美国居民消费和政府支出对股债市场的依赖快速加深。这意味着，美股大幅回调将直接影响居民收入和消费倾向，进而可能拖累消费，这使得联储的货币政策空间实际上是压缩的。此外，中国区域疫情的反复、以及俄乌冲突对欧洲的冲击，都使得美国的外需压力实际上是上升的，这也是需要关注的风险。</p><p><b>风险提示：美国需求超预期回落，美国通胀持续性超预期，美联储货币政策调整超预期。</b></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国GDP转负，美股为何视而不见？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国GDP转负，美股为何视而不见？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-04-29 11:21 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/524196><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：市场对GDP转负反应平淡，主要因为消费和投资仍有韧性！当前资产表现均体现出市场对美国经济增速的放缓并不担心。投资要点美国1季度GDP意外转负，库存、净出口和政府开支是主要拖累。美国1季度实际年化环比增速从6.9%回落至-1.4%，不及预期1%；主要拖累是库存（环比拉动-0.7%）和净出口（环比拉动-3.9%）；哪里不及预期？净出口和库存。净出口：出口转弱叠加进口高增导致净出口环比再次转负；...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/524196\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d10c1816b9dd31519f156ff849533b8","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/524196","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2231762414","content_text":"摘要：市场对GDP转负反应平淡，主要因为消费和投资仍有韧性！当前资产表现均体现出市场对美国经济增速的放缓并不担心。投资要点美国1季度GDP意外转负，库存、净出口和政府开支是主要拖累。美国1季度实际年化环比增速从6.9%回落至-1.4%，不及预期1%；主要拖累是库存（环比拉动-0.7%）和净出口（环比拉动-3.9%）；哪里不及预期？净出口和库存。净出口：出口转弱叠加进口高增导致净出口环比再次转负；库存：批发商汽车库存去化、零售商其他库存回落；市场为何反映平淡：消费和投资仍有韧性。市场对GDP转负反应平淡：数据公布后，加息预期小幅跳升，美债收益率上行，美股高开后小幅下跌，后回归上涨。消费：耐用品和服务拉动整体消费小幅走强，后续预期主线由商品进一步向服务切换，超额储蓄消耗殆尽后消费下行压力将进一步加大；投资：设备和建筑投资拉动整体投资小幅走强，企业层面产出仍在修复，且部分企业反馈正用自动化来解决劳动力短缺问题；地产层面当前供给不足仍然是销售的主要限制，后期关注房价高企及利率上行对需求的负面冲击。展望：美国衰退与否，关键在于联储重回宽松时点。即使不考虑联储收紧，美国经济本身也将面临“财政悬崖”；由于本轮居民和企业资产负债表仍健康，年内衰退言之过早；联储正以“衰退式加息”给需求降温，其政策操作重心何时转回需求（即转向宽松）将决定经济能否软着陆；超预期下行的风险：联储收紧冲击股市进而对居民消费带来额外的负反馈、疫情扰动和俄乌冲突给中国和欧洲带来的需求下行压力。风险提示：美国需求超预期回落，美国通胀持续性超预期，美联储货币政策调整超预期。正文美国一季度GDP转负，低于市场预期美国1季度GDP意外转负，库存、净出口和政府开支是主要拖累。美国2022年1季度实际GDP年化环比增速从6.9%回落至-1.4%，不及预期1%。从分项看，主要拖累来自库存（环比拉动由5.3%回落至-0.7%）、净出口（环比拉动由-0.7%进一步下探至-3.9%）。而消费和固定资产投资则较为稳健：消费环比拉动从1.7%升至1.8%，固定资产投资则由0.5%升至1.3%。哪里不及预期：净出口和库存净出口：出口转弱叠加进口高增导致净出口环比再次转负外需转弱叠加进口高增，净出口贡献转负。美国出口环比拉动由4季度的2.4%再次转负至-0.7%，进口则继续维持高位，由于进口对净出口分项是负贡献，因此环比看维持为约-3.1%的拖累。而进口来看，受到石油等工业原材料的拉动，美国1季度进口持续保持高位，也对GDP净出口分项形成负贡献。美国1季度出口转负可能也体现在来自欧洲和中国需求的弱化，后续美国出口或继续承压。库存：批发零售库存为主要拖累库存变动分项转负，主要受到批发商和零售商库存去化的拖累。拆分库存变化分项来看，美国1季度库存变动减少主要是由于批发商和零售商库存变动减少导致的。批发商库存的去化主要体现在耐用品库存变化的减少；而零售商库存的减少主要体现在交通工具及零部件分项以及其他零售。整体来看，美国1季度库存变化分项的拖累主要是由于以汽车为代表的耐用品去库存导致的，由于持续的芯片等原材料供应链问题，汽车等耐用品生产受到掣肘。市场为何反映平淡：消费和投资仍有韧性数据公布后，加息预期跳升，美债收益率上行，美股高开。虽然1季度GDP增速转负，市场对于数据却反应平淡。加息预期小幅跳升，当前期货隐含5月加息概率为203%；10年期美债小幅上行至2.88%后在高位震荡；美股高开后轻微下行，而后回归上涨。当前资产表现均体现出市场对美国经济增速的放缓并不担心。消费：财政余韵仍在，预期主线将继续由商品向服务切换题1季度耐用品和服务消费小幅走强，非耐用品消费拉动则转负。拆分来看，1季度耐用品消费环比拉动从0.1%小幅升至0.2%，服务消费环比拉动从0.5%小幅升至0.6%，非耐用品环比拉动则从0%转负为-0.2%。往后看，商品小幅预期继续回落，后续消费斜率主要取决于服务。正如我们在2022年海外年报《缝缝补补又一年》中所详细阐述的，从缺口填补来看，美国商品消费已经透支，然而服务消费仍有缺口，随着美国全面放松口罩政策，出行数据，美国消费的支柱将进一步从商品切换到服务，因此，美国消费的韧性将取决于服务消费。伴随着超额储蓄逐步消耗，居民消费下半年的逆风可能将更加明显。本财政刺激导致美国居民收入大幅高于疫情前水平，美国居民增加超额储蓄约2.4万亿美元。考虑不同收入群体的消费偏好不同，其中约有1.2万亿美元能被用于消费，约占美国年消费额的7%，我们估算下来，超额储蓄对消费的影响可能将持续到年中。一个可以观测超额储蓄消耗的数据是美国居民的信用卡消费，居民信用卡消费额自2021年年底以来，开始显著超过以往的季节性，这说明虽然有的人花钱快、有的人花钱慢，但是居民口袋里的钱正在逐步消耗，而当这部分财政“余韵”消失，消费的下行压力将进一步凸显。投资：企业意愿尚可，地产仍处在供不应求的卖方市场1季度设备投资走强，建筑投资环比拖累收窄，软件和住宅则基本持平。拆分来看，1季度非住宅投资环比拉动从0.6%升至1.8%，其中设备投资环比拉动从0.3%升至1.3%，建筑投资环比拖累从-0.3%收窄至0%，软件投资拉动则由0.7%消费回落至0.6%；住宅投资环比拉动则维持在0.1%企业目前资本开支意愿尚可，劳动力市场供不应求使得自动化投资增加。企业投资层面，我们看到美国当前制造业订单需求仍然有韧性，工业产出和产能利用率仍在填坑，一季度整体企业资本开支意愿是有所修复的。尤其是，联储4月的褐皮书反映，疫情和刺激支票导致的劳动力市场招不到人的情况，使得部分企业增加了自动化的投资。地产仍处于供不应求的卖方市场，但关注利率上行对需求的影响。地产方面来看，目前的销售制约可能还在供给端，天气、木材以及劳动力短缺限制了建筑活动，导致房屋库存持续处在低位，呈现供不应求的局面，进而导致房价高企。但值得注意的是，本轮美国地产需求的修复力——居家办公以及低利率，都正在遭遇逆风，叠加高房价，这意味着，需求端未来也将降温。展望：美国衰退与否，关键在于联储重回宽松时点即使不考虑联储收紧，美国经济本身也将面临“财政悬崖”。除了联储的宽松，疫后美国的复苏还来自其三轮财政刺激总额达5万亿美元的财政刺激。但根据CBO的预测，2022年多轮刺激的财政支出力度将不及2021年的一半，支出总额将在6000亿美元左右。这意味着，即使不考虑美联储的快速收紧，美国经济本身也将遭遇类似2010年的“财政悬崖”。尤其是超额储蓄消耗完之后，财政的基数效应将尤为突出。但和此前危机相比，美国私人部门资产负债表较健康，年内衰退言之过早。与2000年和2008年相比，本轮最大的不同在于没有出现金融机构的资产负债表崩塌从而陷入衰退的情况。美国当前居民和企业资产负债表相对比较健康，与此前两轮衰退相比保护垫相对较厚。从联储根据10Y-3M利差测算的衰退概率来看，未来一年内陷入衰退的可能性较低，目前不到10%。联储正以“衰退式加息”给需求降温，其政策操作将决定经济能否软着陆。目前，联储的货币政策重心显然还在通胀层面——由于前期落后曲线，当前市场对年内超过250bp的加息预期也反映了联储纠偏的决心。对于联储而言，其无法控制供给端，因此快速上调利率也是通过给需求端降温来试图降低价格压力。从3月的联储纪要来看，联储对需求的前景并非视而不见，只是希望快速推进货币政策正常化以应对未来可能超预期下行的压力。从这个角度来看，联储能否在美国经济陷入衰退之前重新转回宽松，将是本轮美国经济能否实现软着陆的关键。超预期下行风险：股市对联储持续收紧的额外负反馈、中欧的下行压力。我们此前持续提示，危机后（尤其是疫情以来）美国居民消费和政府支出对股债市场的依赖快速加深。这意味着，美股大幅回调将直接影响居民收入和消费倾向，进而可能拖累消费，这使得联储的货币政策空间实际上是压缩的。此外，中国区域疫情的反复、以及俄乌冲突对欧洲的冲击，都使得美国的外需压力实际上是上升的，这也是需要关注的风险。风险提示：美国需求超预期回落，美国通胀持续性超预期，美联储货币政策调整超预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":611442723,"gmtCreate":1650606617667,"gmtModify":1650606617667,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>只能长期持有了，不想割肉！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$</a>只能长期持有了，不想割肉！","text":"$ContextLogic Inc.(WISH)$只能长期持有了，不想割肉！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/611442723","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575764178135145","authorId":"3575764178135145","name":"MaRo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c7022bbcac13197c84f0d963050133e","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3575764178135145","authorIdStr":"3575764178135145"},"content":"兄弟你多少价格上车的","text":"兄弟你多少价格上车的","html":"兄弟你多少价格上车的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886728523,"gmtCreate":1631627198462,"gmtModify":1631627198462,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$</a>换手率为什么这么低？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FCEL\">$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$</a>换手率为什么这么低？","text":"$燃料电池能源(FCEL)$换手率为什么这么低？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886728523","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2642,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":896762428,"gmtCreate":1628606069064,"gmtModify":1628606069064,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WORX\">$Scworx Corp(WORX)$</a>总算解套了！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WORX\">$Scworx Corp(WORX)$</a>总算解套了！","text":"$Scworx Corp(WORX)$总算解套了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896762428","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2973,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":807333135,"gmtCreate":1627999769427,"gmtModify":1627999769427,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OTLK\">$Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.(OTLK)$</a>上不来了，一直2.8～3之间，收盘！明天继续跌，骗炮的！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OTLK\">$Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.(OTLK)$</a>上不来了，一直2.8～3之间，收盘！明天继续跌，骗炮的！","text":"$Outlook Therapeutics, Inc.(OTLK)$上不来了，一直2.8～3之间，收盘！明天继续跌，骗炮的！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807333135","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176832274,"gmtCreate":1626875628498,"gmtModify":1626875628498,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEMI\">$Chembio Diagnostics(CEMI)$</a>进去就被套！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEMI\">$Chembio Diagnostics(CEMI)$</a>进去就被套！","text":"$Chembio Diagnostics(CEMI)$进去就被套！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176832274","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183425983,"gmtCreate":1623342807342,"gmtModify":1623342807342,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>应该在46左右才对！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>应该在46左右才对！","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$应该在46左右才对！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183425983","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":183421685,"gmtCreate":1623342651147,"gmtModify":1623342651147,"author":{"id":"3573806609850830","authorId":"3573806609850830","name":"VD2021","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/122f6165a3c4270d5fd26a001fee832f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573806609850830","authorIdStr":"3573806609850830"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>和蔚来的价格一直保持7&amp;8美元的差距，蔚来跌了，他也快了！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a>和蔚来的价格一直保持7&amp;8美元的差距，蔚来跌了，他也快了！","text":"$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$和蔚来的价格一直保持7&8美元的差距，蔚来跌了，他也快了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/183421685","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}