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- YHY73YHY73
  ·2021-05-13
  Wow.... still don’t understand how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. Anyone care to explain?Maybe he wants to accumulate more at super low price. 😜
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  457 评论
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- YHY73YHY73
  ·2021-04-26
  Market correction is always healthy.
  Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?
  TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to dis
  Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?
  717 评论
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- YHY73YHY73
  ·2021-04-01
  Money, money and more money!! 😂
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  782 评论
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- YHY73YHY73
  ·2021-03-25
  Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  607 评论
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- YHY73YHY73
  ·2021-03-18
  Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  670 评论
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- YHY73YHY73
  ·2021-03-18
  Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂
  What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference
  Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we l
  What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference
  718 评论
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- YHY73YHY73
  ·2021-03-17
  Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅
  Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting
  The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter ec
  Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting
  515 评论
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- YHY73YHY73
  ·2021-03-12
  Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- YHY73YHY73
  ·2021-03-09
  Correction is good and healthy.
  Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why
  London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's
  Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why
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still don’t understand&nbsp;how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. Anyone care to explain?Maybe he wants to accumulate more at super low price. 😜","listText":"Wow.... still don’t understand&nbsp;how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. Anyone care to explain?Maybe he wants to accumulate more at super low price. 😜","text":"Wow.... still don’t understand how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. Anyone care to explain?Maybe he wants to accumulate more at super low price. 😜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191217340","repostId":"1123539919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":374380921,"gmtCreate":1619418749163,"gmtModify":1634273631761,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market correction is always healthy.&nbsp;","listText":"Market correction is always healthy.&nbsp;","text":"Market correction is always healthy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374380921","repostId":"1158968268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158968268","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619396796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158968268?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 08:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158968268","media":"TheStreet","summary":"TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to dis","content":"<p>TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to discuss the April 'bloodbath' and what it means for investors.</p>\n<p>Did the world just witness the bitcoin bomb? Or, the chance for a bitcoin buy?</p>\n<p>The famed cryptocurrency&nbsp;fell sharply&nbsp;over the past week, sinking from its mid-month high of over $64,000 to Sunday evening, when it fell under $48,000.</p>\n<p>But the move may prove an opportunity for longer term investors.</p>\n<p>\"Bitcoin's volatility isn't a flaw, it's a gift -- especially for the up-and-coming investor class of millennials and Gen-Z,\" said Dave Balter, the chief executive of Flipside Crypto, which provides analytics and business intelligence to crypto organizations, in an email to<i>TheStreet.</i>\"The last month is a reflection of its natural cycles, but also of a maturing institutional speculation and futures market.\"</p>\n<p>And, said Balter, any good investor \"knows there's always money to be made with volatile assets.\"</p>\n<p>Still, the move startled some observers. Before the fall, bitcoin had been on a steady upswing, with&nbsp;many forecasting that it was not a question of if, but when, itwould hit $100,000.&nbsp;Just in the past quarter, the cryptocurrency scored several new highs and surpassed $64,000 on April 14. By that time it had also grown by over 1,000% from a year-ago, when on March 13, 2020, it crashed 40% intraday to $5,413, according to a new&nbsp;report by CoinGecko, &nbsp;one of the largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregators.</p>\n<p>The past week's drop also came after several months of bullish buildup on crypto that dominated financial news headlines.</p>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;had said in March that it was holding bitcoin as an investment asset and would take it as a form of payment. Visa&nbsp;gotfurther into cryptoand Grayscale Investmentsrevealed it planned a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And then there was the hysteria of Coinbase&nbsp;going public.</p>\n<p>\"There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase IPO,\" said&nbsp;Bobby Ong, CoinGecko's chief operating officer, told<i>TheStreet</i>in an email. \"The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoin’s price to hit a new all-time high of $64,804.\"</p>\n<p>Further exacerbating last week's selloff was its occurrence during the weekend when there were thinner order books, said Ong.&nbsp;\"With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price.\"</p>\n<p>Now, the market needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders, said Ong, adding that bitcoin options expire toward the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility around that time.</p>\n<p><b>Bitcoin Ban?</b></p>\n<p>Despite bitcoin's rise through mid-April and excitement leading up to Cionbase's offering, it wasn't all glitter and gold for the digital coin in past few weeks.</p>\n<p>Not only did coinbase's initial public offering somewhat disappoint in the days following, but star investors had been growing increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the cryptocurrency.</p>\n<p>Hedgefund investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates told&nbsp;Yahoo News&nbsp;last month that he felt there was a “good probability” bitcoin could become outlawed in the U.S. He also questioned the privacy of the cryptocurrency's transactions. Then, last week, Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd&nbsp;told CNBC&nbsp;that while he's bullish on bitcoin over the long-term, bitcoin is too \"frothy\" and could fall 50%.</p>\n<p>The lukewarm reception from stock investors over Coinbase's direct listing and&nbsp;\"a lot of fear and uncertainty\" spreading on social media didn't help bitcoin, suggested Ong, noting the recent headlines of crypto bans in India and Turkey.</p>\n<p>But aside from the technical and fundamental moves in crypto in the waning weeks of April -- much of what happened in the media was little more than hype and speculation, suggested Balter.</p>\n<p>\"I'd hate to go on record for ever saying Ray Dalio doesn't know what he's talking about,\" said Balter,&nbsp;who is also a partner with venture capital firm True Ventures. \"That said ... like any asset, there's always a great deal of speculation -- bitcoin is esteemed in that it presents both technical and financial implications, and thus magnifies that speculation immensely.\"</p>\n<p>And, that people like Dalio and Minerd are even talking about crypto so publicly on the record, shows how far the digital currency has come, noted Balter, also responding to a recent comment by value investor Bill Miller, who&nbsp;told CNBC&nbsp;this month that he sees bitcoin establishing itself in the \"mainstream.\"</p>\n<p>\"The fact that all three are going on record would indicate that bitcoin is likely entering the mainstream, so hat-tip to Mr. Miller,\" said Balter. \"The volatility of bitcoin has always been part of its allure, so cutting in half isn't out of the question.... Although, I don't think we'll ever see $10,000 levels again. As for Mr. Dalio, unfortunately the concept of outlawing an asset that is conceptually decentralized is pretty much out of the question, and bitcoin transactions are hardly private, so sorry Mr. Dalio, you are pretty off the mark.\"</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-26 08:26 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bitcoin/thestreet-taps-two-crypto-experts-bobby-ong-of-coingecko-and-dave-balter-of-flipside-crypto-to-discuss-the-april-bloodbath-and-what-it-means-for-investors><strong>TheStreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to discuss the April 'bloodbath' and what it means for investors.\nDid the world just witness the bitcoin ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bitcoin/thestreet-taps-two-crypto-experts-bobby-ong-of-coingecko-and-dave-balter-of-flipside-crypto-to-discuss-the-april-bloodbath-and-what-it-means-for-investors\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bitcoin/thestreet-taps-two-crypto-experts-bobby-ong-of-coingecko-and-dave-balter-of-flipside-crypto-to-discuss-the-april-bloodbath-and-what-it-means-for-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158968268","content_text":"TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to discuss the April 'bloodbath' and what it means for investors.\nDid the world just witness the bitcoin bomb? Or, the chance for a bitcoin buy?\nThe famed cryptocurrency fell sharply over the past week, sinking from its mid-month high of over $64,000 to Sunday evening, when it fell under $48,000.\nBut the move may prove an opportunity for longer term investors.\n\"Bitcoin's volatility isn't a flaw, it's a gift -- especially for the up-and-coming investor class of millennials and Gen-Z,\" said Dave Balter, the chief executive of Flipside Crypto, which provides analytics and business intelligence to crypto organizations, in an email toTheStreet.\"The last month is a reflection of its natural cycles, but also of a maturing institutional speculation and futures market.\"\nAnd, said Balter, any good investor \"knows there's always money to be made with volatile assets.\"\nStill, the move startled some observers. Before the fall, bitcoin had been on a steady upswing, with many forecasting that it was not a question of if, but when, itwould hit $100,000. Just in the past quarter, the cryptocurrency scored several new highs and surpassed $64,000 on April 14. By that time it had also grown by over 1,000% from a year-ago, when on March 13, 2020, it crashed 40% intraday to $5,413, according to a new report by CoinGecko,  one of the largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregators.\nThe past week's drop also came after several months of bullish buildup on crypto that dominated financial news headlines.\nTesla had said in March that it was holding bitcoin as an investment asset and would take it as a form of payment. Visa gotfurther into cryptoand Grayscale Investmentsrevealed it planned a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And then there was the hysteria of Coinbase going public.\n\"There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase IPO,\" said Bobby Ong, CoinGecko's chief operating officer, toldTheStreetin an email. \"The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoin’s price to hit a new all-time high of $64,804.\"\nFurther exacerbating last week's selloff was its occurrence during the weekend when there were thinner order books, said Ong. \"With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price.\"\nNow, the market needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders, said Ong, adding that bitcoin options expire toward the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility around that time.\nBitcoin Ban?\nDespite bitcoin's rise through mid-April and excitement leading up to Cionbase's offering, it wasn't all glitter and gold for the digital coin in past few weeks.\nNot only did coinbase's initial public offering somewhat disappoint in the days following, but star investors had been growing increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the cryptocurrency.\nHedgefund investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates told Yahoo News last month that he felt there was a “good probability” bitcoin could become outlawed in the U.S. He also questioned the privacy of the cryptocurrency's transactions. Then, last week, Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd told CNBC that while he's bullish on bitcoin over the long-term, bitcoin is too \"frothy\" and could fall 50%.\nThe lukewarm reception from stock investors over Coinbase's direct listing and \"a lot of fear and uncertainty\" spreading on social media didn't help bitcoin, suggested Ong, noting the recent headlines of crypto bans in India and Turkey.\nBut aside from the technical and fundamental moves in crypto in the waning weeks of April -- much of what happened in the media was little more than hype and speculation, suggested Balter.\n\"I'd hate to go on record for ever saying Ray Dalio doesn't know what he's talking about,\" said Balter, who is also a partner with venture capital firm True Ventures. \"That said ... like any asset, there's always a great deal of speculation -- bitcoin is esteemed in that it presents both technical and financial implications, and thus magnifies that speculation immensely.\"\nAnd, that people like Dalio and Minerd are even talking about crypto so publicly on the record, shows how far the digital currency has come, noted Balter, also responding to a recent comment by value investor Bill Miller, who told CNBC this month that he sees bitcoin establishing itself in the \"mainstream.\"\n\"The fact that all three are going on record would indicate that bitcoin is likely entering the mainstream, so hat-tip to Mr. Miller,\" said Balter. \"The volatility of bitcoin has always been part of its allure, so cutting in half isn't out of the question.... Although, I don't think we'll ever see $10,000 levels again. As for Mr. Dalio, unfortunately the concept of outlawing an asset that is conceptually decentralized is pretty much out of the question, and bitcoin transactions are hardly private, so sorry Mr. Dalio, you are pretty off the mark.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357185457,"gmtCreate":1617246830679,"gmtModify":1634521821979,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Money, money and more money!! 😂","listText":"Money, money and more money!! 😂","text":"Money, money and more money!! 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357185457","repostId":"1172735914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351487117,"gmtCreate":1616626624139,"gmtModify":1634524899190,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahaha,&nbsp;Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂","listText":"Hahaha,&nbsp;Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂","text":"Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351487117","repostId":"2121457670","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327128921,"gmtCreate":1616071907063,"gmtModify":1634527392484,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?","listText":"Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?","text":"Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327128921","repostId":"2120308231","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327904493,"gmtCreate":1616045517412,"gmtModify":1703496830771,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fed has stated&nbsp;their position, and market is happy with it. 😂","listText":"Fed has stated&nbsp;their position, and market is happy with it. 😂","text":"Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327904493","repostId":"1190013109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190013109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616029868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190013109?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 09:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190013109","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we l","content":"<p>Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we learned, and what we didn’t, and some of the fun we had along the way.</p>\n<p>Some economists said that&nbsp;Powell conducted a master class on communication.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a004e684c5e894d50023b88db3fcbd01\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"303\"></p>\n<p><b>Fed intends to be dovish until data indicates otherwise</b></p>\n<p>The first step for the Fed to pull back its easy policy stance will be to slow, or taper, its $120 billion-per-month in asset purchases. The Fed has said it wants to make “substantial further progress” on its twin goals of maximum employment and stable 2% inflation, but has not defined this much further.</p>\n<p>Powell said the 465,000 jobs created in the private sector in February was “a nice pick-up,” but he quickly added “you can go so much higher, though.”</p>\n<p>“To achieve substantial progress from where we are is going to take some time — I don’t want to put a pin in the calendar someplace because it’s going to take some time,” he said.</p>\n<p><b>When will the data indicate otherwise? We’ll get back to you on that</b></p>\n<p>“Until we give a signal, you can assume we’re not there yet,” Powell said.</p>\n<p><b>Bad inflation readings this year won’t upset the apple cart</b></p>\n<p>The Fed’s economic forecast and “dot plot” seemed almost designed to hammer home the notion that the Fed won’t be spooked by higher inflation. Despite a forecast of 2.4% headline inflation this year, the Fed ‘s “dot-plot” showed no rate hikes through the end of 2023.</p>\n<p>Powell acknowledged prices will go up when Americans decide to go out again and eat in restaurants and go on airplanes as the pandemic wanes. But this will be a one-time bulge on prices that won’t change inflation going forward. Service-sector inflation isn’t like inflation for televisions or other goods.</p>\n<p>“You can only go out to dinner once per night,” the Fed chairman said.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d1de1c6bb04ff0208bb5b68618167c\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"381\"></p>\n<p><b>Fed officials don’t know how the economy will look in September any more than you do</b></p>\n<p>Powell stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. “We haven’t come out of a pandemic before, we haven’t had this type of fiscal support,” he said,</p>\n<p>Some of the worst-case scenarios are receding — there had been a concern that workers would be “scarred” without the job skills to find employment after the pandemic. With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.</p>\n<p>But sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.</p>\n<p>“The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.</p>\n<p><b>Weak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.</b></p>\n<p>Powell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.</p>\n<p><b>A decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon</b></p>\n<p>In the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. Powell wouldn’t touch the issue — he only said that a decision was expected in a few days.</p>\n<p>But this disheartened some experts who want the exemption to be ended. After all, if the Fed wanted the exemption to end, it didn’t have to make any announcement at all, noted Jeremy Kress, a former Fed staffer and now an assistant professor of business law at Michigan Ross business school.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3eaacf5eed71300b67824f22aff330\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"545\"></p>\n<p>Financial markets were glad to see the Fed being so unconcerned about higher inflation.</p>\n<p>U.S. stocks pushed higher Wednesday,reversing earlier losses, after Fed policy makers left the central bank’s easy money stance in place, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;closing above 33,000 for the first time.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 09:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-we-learned-and-what-we-didnt-from-jerome-powells-press-conference-11616022318?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we learned, and what we didn’t, and some of the fun we had along the way.\nSome economists said that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-we-learned-and-what-we-didnt-from-jerome-powells-press-conference-11616022318?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-we-learned-and-what-we-didnt-from-jerome-powells-press-conference-11616022318?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1190013109","content_text":"Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we learned, and what we didn’t, and some of the fun we had along the way.\nSome economists said that Powell conducted a master class on communication.\n\nFed intends to be dovish until data indicates otherwise\nThe first step for the Fed to pull back its easy policy stance will be to slow, or taper, its $120 billion-per-month in asset purchases. The Fed has said it wants to make “substantial further progress” on its twin goals of maximum employment and stable 2% inflation, but has not defined this much further.\nPowell said the 465,000 jobs created in the private sector in February was “a nice pick-up,” but he quickly added “you can go so much higher, though.”\n“To achieve substantial progress from where we are is going to take some time — I don’t want to put a pin in the calendar someplace because it’s going to take some time,” he said.\nWhen will the data indicate otherwise? We’ll get back to you on that\n“Until we give a signal, you can assume we’re not there yet,” Powell said.\nBad inflation readings this year won’t upset the apple cart\nThe Fed’s economic forecast and “dot plot” seemed almost designed to hammer home the notion that the Fed won’t be spooked by higher inflation. Despite a forecast of 2.4% headline inflation this year, the Fed ‘s “dot-plot” showed no rate hikes through the end of 2023.\nPowell acknowledged prices will go up when Americans decide to go out again and eat in restaurants and go on airplanes as the pandemic wanes. But this will be a one-time bulge on prices that won’t change inflation going forward. Service-sector inflation isn’t like inflation for televisions or other goods.\n“You can only go out to dinner once per night,” the Fed chairman said.\n\nFed officials don’t know how the economy will look in September any more than you do\nPowell stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. “We haven’t come out of a pandemic before, we haven’t had this type of fiscal support,” he said,\nSome of the worst-case scenarios are receding — there had been a concern that workers would be “scarred” without the job skills to find employment after the pandemic. With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.\nBut sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.\n“The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.\nWeak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.\nPowell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.\nA decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon\nIn the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. Powell wouldn’t touch the issue — he only said that a decision was expected in a few days.\nBut this disheartened some experts who want the exemption to be ended. After all, if the Fed wanted the exemption to end, it didn’t have to make any announcement at all, noted Jeremy Kress, a former Fed staffer and now an assistant professor of business law at Michigan Ross business school.\n\nFinancial markets were glad to see the Fed being so unconcerned about higher inflation.\nU.S. stocks pushed higher Wednesday,reversing earlier losses, after Fed policy makers left the central bank’s easy money stance in place, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 33,000 for the first time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324381115,"gmtCreate":1615963809237,"gmtModify":1703495596253,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅","listText":"Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅","text":"Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324381115","repostId":"1103121082","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103121082","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615948559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103121082?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 10:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103121082","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter ec","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.</p>\n<p>More-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.</p>\n<p>“It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”</p>\n<p>The rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.</p>\n<p><b>Updated economic forecasts:</b>In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.</p>\n<p>Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)</p>\n<p>Fed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.</p>\n<p>Some economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).</p>\n<p>Given the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.</p>\n<p><b>The dot plot:</b>In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.</p>\n<p>“Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.</p>\n<p>Bostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.</p>\n<p><b>Bond market action:</b>How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.</p>\n<p>Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.</p>\n<p>Lyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.</p>\n<p><b>SLR exemption extension:</b>Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.</p>\n<p>Wall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.</p>\n<p>The exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.</p>\n<p><b>Further easing watch:</b>Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”</p>\n<p>As for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.</p>\n<p>If financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.</p>\n<p>YCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEasy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 10:35 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103121082","content_text":"The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.\nMore-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.\n“It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”\nThe rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.\nUpdated economic forecasts:In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.\nAneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)\nFed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.\nSome economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).\nGiven the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.\nThe dot plot:In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.\n“Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.\nBostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.\nBond market action:How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.\nIan Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.\nLyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.\nSLR exemption extension:Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.\nWall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.\nThe exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.\nFurther easing watch:Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”\nAs for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.\nIf financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.\nYCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328633897,"gmtCreate":1615518317119,"gmtModify":1703490327233,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)","listText":"Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)","text":"Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328633897","repostId":"1134483939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329575665,"gmtCreate":1615263978957,"gmtModify":1703486451394,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573824362072096","authorIdStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correction is good and healthy.&nbsp;","listText":"Correction is good and healthy.&nbsp;","text":"Correction is good and healthy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329575665","repostId":"1177211195","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177211195","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615213425,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177211195?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 22:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177211195","media":"CNN Business","summary":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's","content":"<p><b>London (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>Apple&nbsp;(AAPL)&nbsp;shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker&nbsp;Nvidia&nbsp;(NVDA)&nbsp;has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.</p><p>What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent&nbsp;sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.</p><p>The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc50317ec0fe580acd1407307915d8fa\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p>Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.</p><p>But now, bond yields are rising on&nbsp;inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.</p><p>Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.</p><p>\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"</p><p>See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.</p><p>Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.</p><p>Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.</p><p>Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.</p><p>\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-08 22:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html><strong>CNN Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A","AAPL":"苹果","NVDA":"英伟达",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","AMZN":"亚马逊","MSFT":"微软","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177211195","content_text":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.But now, bond yields are rising on inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}