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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-05-13
Wow.... still don’t understand how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. Anyone care to explain?Maybe he wants to accumulate more at super low price. 😜
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-04-26
Market correction is always healthy.
Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币：繁荣、萧条和大机遇？</blockquote>
TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to dis
Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币：繁荣、萧条和大机遇？</blockquote>
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-04-01
Money, money and more money!! 😂
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-25
Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-18
Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-18
Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂
What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会中学到了什么以及没有学到什么</blockquote>
Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we l
What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会中学到了什么以及没有学到什么</blockquote>
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-17
Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅
Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>宽松货币、点阵图和美联储的困境：重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>
The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter ec
Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>宽松货币、点阵图和美联储的困境：重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-12
Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)
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YHY73
YHY73
·
2021-03-09
Correction is good and healthy.
Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>
London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's
Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>
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still don’t understand how he can link bitcoins mining to fossil fuels. 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","text":"Market correction is always healthy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/374380921","repostId":"1158968268","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158968268","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1619396796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158968268?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-26 08:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币：繁荣、萧条和大机遇？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158968268","media":"TheStreet","summary":"TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to dis","content":"<p>TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to discuss the April 'bloodbath' and what it means for investors.</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet邀请了CoinGecko的Bobby Ong和Flipside Crypto的Dave Balter两位加密货币专家来讨论4月份的“大屠杀”及其对投资者的意义。</blockquote></p><p> Did the world just witness the bitcoin bomb? Or, the chance for a bitcoin buy?</p><p><blockquote>世界刚刚目睹了比特币原子弹爆炸吗？或者，购买比特币的机会？</blockquote></p><p> The famed cryptocurrency fell sharply over the past week, sinking from its mid-month high of over $64,000 to Sunday evening, when it fell under $48,000.</p><p><blockquote>这种著名的加密货币在过去一周大幅下跌，从月中超过64,000美元的高点跌至周日晚上跌破48,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the move may prove an opportunity for longer term investors.</p><p><blockquote>但此举可能对长期投资者来说是一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bitcoin's volatility isn't a flaw, it's a gift -- especially for the up-and-coming investor class of millennials and Gen-Z,\" said Dave Balter, the chief executive of Flipside Crypto, which provides analytics and business intelligence to crypto organizations, in an email to<i>TheStreet.</i>\"The last month is a reflection of its natural cycles, but also of a maturing institutional speculation and futures market.\"</p><p><blockquote>为加密货币提供分析和商业智能的Flipside Crypto首席执行官Dave Balter表示：“比特币的波动性不是缺陷，而是一份礼物——尤其是对于千禧一代和Z世代等崭露头角的投资者群体来说。”组织，在一封电子邮件中<i>街道。</i>“上个月反映了其自然周期，也反映了机构投机和期货市场的成熟。”</blockquote></p><p> And, said Balter, any good investor \"knows there's always money to be made with volatile assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>巴尔特说，任何优秀的投资者“都知道波动性资产总能赚钱”。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the move startled some observers. Before the fall, bitcoin had been on a steady upswing, with many forecasting that it was not a question of if, but when, itwould hit $100,000. Just in the past quarter, the cryptocurrency scored several new highs and surpassed $64,000 on April 14. By that time it had also grown by over 1,000% from a year-ago, when on March 13, 2020, it crashed 40% intraday to $5,413, according to a new report by CoinGecko, one of the largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregators.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，此举还是让一些观察家感到震惊。在下跌之前，比特币一直在稳步上涨，许多人预测这不是是否会触及10万美元的问题，而是何时触及10万美元的问题。就在过去的一个季度，加密货币创下了几个新高，并于4月14日突破了64,000美元。根据最大的独立加密货币数据聚合商之一CoinGecko的一份新报告，到那时，它也比一年前增长了1,000%以上，2020年3月13日，它盘中暴跌40%，至5,413美元。</blockquote></p><p> The past week's drop also came after several months of bullish buildup on crypto that dominated financial news headlines.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周的下跌也是在几个月来主导金融新闻头条的加密货币看涨之后发生的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla had said in March that it was holding bitcoin as an investment asset and would take it as a form of payment. Visa gotfurther into cryptoand Grayscale Investmentsrevealed it planned a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And then there was the hysteria of Coinbase going public.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉曾在三月份表示，它将比特币作为投资资产持有，并将其作为一种支付形式。Visa进一步涉足加密货币和灰度投资，透露计划成立比特币交易所交易基金。然后是比特币基地上市的歇斯底里。</blockquote></p><p> \"There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase IPO,\" said Bobby Ong, CoinGecko's chief operating officer, told<i>TheStreet</i>in an email. \"The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoin’s price to hit a new all-time high of $64,804.\"</p><p><blockquote>CoinGecko首席运营官Bobby Ong表示：“由于对Coinbase IPO的预期，市场上已经存在大量杠杆。”<i>街道</i>在一封电子邮件中。“第一家加密货币公司IPO的兴奋也导致比特币的价格创下64,804美元的历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p> Further exacerbating last week's selloff was its occurrence during the weekend when there were thinner order books, said Ong. \"With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ong表示，周末订单减少，进一步加剧了上周的抛售。“在高杠杆和订单减少的情况下，即使价格小幅下跌也会引发大幅回撤，并导致价格螺旋式下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, the market needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders, said Ong, adding that bitcoin options expire toward the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility around that time.</p><p><blockquote>Ong表示，现在市场需要自我纠正，因为有许多过度杠杆化的交易者，并补充说比特币期权在每个月底到期，这通常会导致当时波动性增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Ban?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币·班？</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite bitcoin's rise through mid-April and excitement leading up to Cionbase's offering, it wasn't all glitter and gold for the digital coin in past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管比特币在4月中旬上涨，Cionbase发行前也令人兴奋，但过去几周数字硬币的表现并不全是闪光和黄金。</blockquote></p><p> Not only did coinbase's initial public offering somewhat disappoint in the days following, but star investors had been growing increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>不仅coinbase的首次公开募股在接下来的几天里有些令人失望，而且明星投资者也越来越多地表达了他们对加密货币的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> Hedgefund investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates told Yahoo News last month that he felt there was a “good probability” bitcoin could become outlawed in the U.S. He also questioned the privacy of the cryptocurrency's transactions. Then, last week, Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd told CNBC that while he's bullish on bitcoin over the long-term, bitcoin is too \"frothy\" and could fall 50%.</p><p><blockquote>Bridgewater Associates的对冲基金投资者Ray Dalio上个月告诉雅虎新闻，他认为比特币“很有可能”在美国被取缔。他还质疑加密货币交易的隐私性。然后，上周，Guggenheim Partners的Scott Minerd告诉CNBC，虽然他长期看好比特币，但比特币的“泡沫”太大，可能会下跌50%。</blockquote></p><p> The lukewarm reception from stock investors over Coinbase's direct listing and \"a lot of fear and uncertainty\" spreading on social media didn't help bitcoin, suggested Ong, noting the recent headlines of crypto bans in India and Turkey.</p><p><blockquote>Ong表示，股票投资者对Coinbase直接上市反应冷淡，社交媒体上传播的“大量恐惧和不确定性”对比特币没有帮助，并指出最近印度和土耳其加密货币禁令的头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> But aside from the technical and fundamental moves in crypto in the waning weeks of April -- much of what happened in the media was little more than hype and speculation, suggested Balter.</p><p><blockquote>但巴尔特表示，除了4月份最后几周加密货币的技术和基本面走势之外，媒体上发生的大部分事情只不过是炒作和猜测。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'd hate to go on record for ever saying Ray Dalio doesn't know what he's talking about,\" said Balter, who is also a partner with venture capital firm True Ventures. \"That said ... like any asset, there's always a great deal of speculation -- bitcoin is esteemed in that it presents both technical and financial implications, and thus magnifies that speculation immensely.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我不想公开说雷·达里奥不知道自己在说什么，”巴尔特说，他也是风险投资公司True Ventures的合伙人。“也就是说……就像任何资产一样，总是有大量的猜测——比特币因其具有技术和财务影响而受到尊重，因此极大地放大了这种猜测。”</blockquote></p><p> And, that people like Dalio and Minerd are even talking about crypto so publicly on the record, shows how far the digital currency has come, noted Balter, also responding to a recent comment by value investor Bill Miller, who told CNBC this month that he sees bitcoin establishing itself in the \"mainstream.\"</p><p><blockquote>Balter指出，像Dalio和Minerd这样的人甚至公开谈论加密货币，这表明了数字货币已经走了多远。他还回应了价值投资者Bill Miller最近的评论，Bill Miller本月告诉CNBC，他看到比特币在“主流”中确立了自己的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"The fact that all three are going on record would indicate that bitcoin is likely entering the mainstream, so hat-tip to Mr. Miller,\" said Balter. \"The volatility of bitcoin has always been part of its allure, so cutting in half isn't out of the question.... Although, I don't think we'll ever see $10,000 levels again. As for Mr. Dalio, unfortunately the concept of outlawing an asset that is conceptually decentralized is pretty much out of the question, and bitcoin transactions are hardly private, so sorry Mr. Dalio, you are pretty off the mark.\"</p><p><blockquote>Balter说：“事实上，这三家公司都被记录在案，这表明比特币很可能会进入主流，所以向Miller先生致敬。”“比特币的波动性一直是其吸引力的一部分，因此减半并非不可能……不过，我认为我们再也不会看到10,000美元的水平了。至于达里奥先生，不幸的是，宣布概念上去中心化的资产非法的概念几乎是不可能的，而且比特币交易几乎不是私人的，所以抱歉达里奥先生，你太离谱了。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币：繁荣、萧条和大机遇？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin: Boom, Bust and Big Opportunity?<blockquote>比特币：繁荣、萧条和大机遇？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-26 08:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to discuss the April 'bloodbath' and what it means for investors.</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet邀请了CoinGecko的Bobby Ong和Flipside Crypto的Dave Balter两位加密货币专家来讨论4月份的“大屠杀”及其对投资者的意义。</blockquote></p><p> Did the world just witness the bitcoin bomb? Or, the chance for a bitcoin buy?</p><p><blockquote>世界刚刚目睹了比特币原子弹爆炸吗？或者，购买比特币的机会？</blockquote></p><p> The famed cryptocurrency fell sharply over the past week, sinking from its mid-month high of over $64,000 to Sunday evening, when it fell under $48,000.</p><p><blockquote>这种著名的加密货币在过去一周大幅下跌，从月中超过64,000美元的高点跌至周日晚上跌破48,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> But the move may prove an opportunity for longer term investors.</p><p><blockquote>但此举可能对长期投资者来说是一个机会。</blockquote></p><p> \"Bitcoin's volatility isn't a flaw, it's a gift -- especially for the up-and-coming investor class of millennials and Gen-Z,\" said Dave Balter, the chief executive of Flipside Crypto, which provides analytics and business intelligence to crypto organizations, in an email to<i>TheStreet.</i>\"The last month is a reflection of its natural cycles, but also of a maturing institutional speculation and futures market.\"</p><p><blockquote>为加密货币提供分析和商业智能的Flipside Crypto首席执行官Dave Balter表示：“比特币的波动性不是缺陷，而是一份礼物——尤其是对于千禧一代和Z世代等崭露头角的投资者群体来说。”组织，在一封电子邮件中<i>街道。</i>“上个月反映了其自然周期，也反映了机构投机和期货市场的成熟。”</blockquote></p><p> And, said Balter, any good investor \"knows there's always money to be made with volatile assets.\"</p><p><blockquote>巴尔特说，任何优秀的投资者“都知道波动性资产总能赚钱”。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the move startled some observers. Before the fall, bitcoin had been on a steady upswing, with many forecasting that it was not a question of if, but when, itwould hit $100,000. Just in the past quarter, the cryptocurrency scored several new highs and surpassed $64,000 on April 14. By that time it had also grown by over 1,000% from a year-ago, when on March 13, 2020, it crashed 40% intraday to $5,413, according to a new report by CoinGecko, one of the largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregators.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，此举还是让一些观察家感到震惊。在下跌之前，比特币一直在稳步上涨，许多人预测这不是是否会触及10万美元的问题，而是何时触及10万美元的问题。就在过去的一个季度，加密货币创下了几个新高，并于4月14日突破了64,000美元。根据最大的独立加密货币数据聚合商之一CoinGecko的一份新报告，到那时，它也比一年前增长了1,000%以上，2020年3月13日，它盘中暴跌40%，至5,413美元。</blockquote></p><p> The past week's drop also came after several months of bullish buildup on crypto that dominated financial news headlines.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周的下跌也是在几个月来主导金融新闻头条的加密货币看涨之后发生的。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla had said in March that it was holding bitcoin as an investment asset and would take it as a form of payment. Visa gotfurther into cryptoand Grayscale Investmentsrevealed it planned a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And then there was the hysteria of Coinbase going public.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉曾在三月份表示，它将比特币作为投资资产持有，并将其作为一种支付形式。Visa进一步涉足加密货币和灰度投资，透露计划成立比特币交易所交易基金。然后是比特币基地上市的歇斯底里。</blockquote></p><p> \"There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase IPO,\" said Bobby Ong, CoinGecko's chief operating officer, told<i>TheStreet</i>in an email. \"The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoin’s price to hit a new all-time high of $64,804.\"</p><p><blockquote>CoinGecko首席运营官Bobby Ong表示：“由于对Coinbase IPO的预期，市场上已经存在大量杠杆。”<i>街道</i>在一封电子邮件中。“第一家加密货币公司IPO的兴奋也导致比特币的价格创下64,804美元的历史新高。”</blockquote></p><p> Further exacerbating last week's selloff was its occurrence during the weekend when there were thinner order books, said Ong. \"With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ong表示，周末订单减少，进一步加剧了上周的抛售。“在高杠杆和订单减少的情况下，即使价格小幅下跌也会引发大幅回撤，并导致价格螺旋式下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, the market needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders, said Ong, adding that bitcoin options expire toward the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility around that time.</p><p><blockquote>Ong表示，现在市场需要自我纠正，因为有许多过度杠杆化的交易者，并补充说比特币期权在每个月底到期，这通常会导致当时波动性增加。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin Ban?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币·班？</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite bitcoin's rise through mid-April and excitement leading up to Cionbase's offering, it wasn't all glitter and gold for the digital coin in past few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>尽管比特币在4月中旬上涨，Cionbase发行前也令人兴奋，但过去几周数字硬币的表现并不全是闪光和黄金。</blockquote></p><p> Not only did coinbase's initial public offering somewhat disappoint in the days following, but star investors had been growing increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the cryptocurrency.</p><p><blockquote>不仅coinbase的首次公开募股在接下来的几天里有些令人失望，而且明星投资者也越来越多地表达了他们对加密货币的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> Hedgefund investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates told Yahoo News last month that he felt there was a “good probability” bitcoin could become outlawed in the U.S. He also questioned the privacy of the cryptocurrency's transactions. Then, last week, Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd told CNBC that while he's bullish on bitcoin over the long-term, bitcoin is too \"frothy\" and could fall 50%.</p><p><blockquote>Bridgewater Associates的对冲基金投资者Ray Dalio上个月告诉雅虎新闻，他认为比特币“很有可能”在美国被取缔。他还质疑加密货币交易的隐私性。然后，上周，Guggenheim Partners的Scott Minerd告诉CNBC，虽然他长期看好比特币，但比特币的“泡沫”太大，可能会下跌50%。</blockquote></p><p> The lukewarm reception from stock investors over Coinbase's direct listing and \"a lot of fear and uncertainty\" spreading on social media didn't help bitcoin, suggested Ong, noting the recent headlines of crypto bans in India and Turkey.</p><p><blockquote>Ong表示，股票投资者对Coinbase直接上市反应冷淡，社交媒体上传播的“大量恐惧和不确定性”对比特币没有帮助，并指出最近印度和土耳其加密货币禁令的头条新闻。</blockquote></p><p> But aside from the technical and fundamental moves in crypto in the waning weeks of April -- much of what happened in the media was little more than hype and speculation, suggested Balter.</p><p><blockquote>但巴尔特表示，除了4月份最后几周加密货币的技术和基本面走势之外，媒体上发生的大部分事情只不过是炒作和猜测。</blockquote></p><p> \"I'd hate to go on record for ever saying Ray Dalio doesn't know what he's talking about,\" said Balter, who is also a partner with venture capital firm True Ventures. \"That said ... like any asset, there's always a great deal of speculation -- bitcoin is esteemed in that it presents both technical and financial implications, and thus magnifies that speculation immensely.\"</p><p><blockquote>“我不想公开说雷·达里奥不知道自己在说什么，”巴尔特说，他也是风险投资公司True Ventures的合伙人。“也就是说……就像任何资产一样，总是有大量的猜测——比特币因其具有技术和财务影响而受到尊重，因此极大地放大了这种猜测。”</blockquote></p><p> And, that people like Dalio and Minerd are even talking about crypto so publicly on the record, shows how far the digital currency has come, noted Balter, also responding to a recent comment by value investor Bill Miller, who told CNBC this month that he sees bitcoin establishing itself in the \"mainstream.\"</p><p><blockquote>Balter指出，像Dalio和Minerd这样的人甚至公开谈论加密货币，这表明了数字货币已经走了多远。他还回应了价值投资者Bill Miller最近的评论，Bill Miller本月告诉CNBC，他看到比特币在“主流”中确立了自己的地位。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"The fact that all three are going on record would indicate that bitcoin is likely entering the mainstream, so hat-tip to Mr. Miller,\" said Balter. \"The volatility of bitcoin has always been part of its allure, so cutting in half isn't out of the question.... Although, I don't think we'll ever see $10,000 levels again. As for Mr. Dalio, unfortunately the concept of outlawing an asset that is conceptually decentralized is pretty much out of the question, and bitcoin transactions are hardly private, so sorry Mr. Dalio, you are pretty off the mark.\"</p><p><blockquote>Balter说：“事实上，这三家公司都被记录在案，这表明比特币很可能会进入主流，所以向Miller先生致敬。”“比特币的波动性一直是其吸引力的一部分，因此减半并非不可能……不过，我认为我们再也不会看到10,000美元的水平了。至于达里奥先生，不幸的是，宣布概念上去中心化的资产非法的概念几乎是不可能的，而且比特币交易几乎不是私人的，所以抱歉达里奥先生，你太离谱了。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bitcoin/thestreet-taps-two-crypto-experts-bobby-ong-of-coingecko-and-dave-balter-of-flipside-crypto-to-discuss-the-april-bloodbath-and-what-it-means-for-investors\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","PYPL":"PayPal","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/bitcoin/thestreet-taps-two-crypto-experts-bobby-ong-of-coingecko-and-dave-balter-of-flipside-crypto-to-discuss-the-april-bloodbath-and-what-it-means-for-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158968268","content_text":"TheStreet taps two crypto experts, Bobby Ong of CoinGecko and Dave Balter of Flipside Crypto, to discuss the April 'bloodbath' and what it means for investors.\nDid the world just witness the bitcoin bomb? Or, the chance for a bitcoin buy?\nThe famed cryptocurrency fell sharply over the past week, sinking from its mid-month high of over $64,000 to Sunday evening, when it fell under $48,000.\nBut the move may prove an opportunity for longer term investors.\n\"Bitcoin's volatility isn't a flaw, it's a gift -- especially for the up-and-coming investor class of millennials and Gen-Z,\" said Dave Balter, the chief executive of Flipside Crypto, which provides analytics and business intelligence to crypto organizations, in an email toTheStreet.\"The last month is a reflection of its natural cycles, but also of a maturing institutional speculation and futures market.\"\nAnd, said Balter, any good investor \"knows there's always money to be made with volatile assets.\"\nStill, the move startled some observers. Before the fall, bitcoin had been on a steady upswing, with many forecasting that it was not a question of if, but when, itwould hit $100,000. Just in the past quarter, the cryptocurrency scored several new highs and surpassed $64,000 on April 14. By that time it had also grown by over 1,000% from a year-ago, when on March 13, 2020, it crashed 40% intraday to $5,413, according to a new report by CoinGecko, one of the largest independent cryptocurrency data aggregators.\nThe past week's drop also came after several months of bullish buildup on crypto that dominated financial news headlines.\nTesla had said in March that it was holding bitcoin as an investment asset and would take it as a form of payment. Visa gotfurther into cryptoand Grayscale Investmentsrevealed it planned a bitcoin exchange-traded fund. And then there was the hysteria of Coinbase going public.\n\"There was already a massive amount of leverage in the market in anticipation of the Coinbase IPO,\" said Bobby Ong, CoinGecko's chief operating officer, toldTheStreetin an email. \"The excitement of having the first crypto company IPO also led bitcoin’s price to hit a new all-time high of $64,804.\"\nFurther exacerbating last week's selloff was its occurrence during the weekend when there were thinner order books, said Ong. \"With high leverage and thin order books, even a small decrease in price will trigger a sharp drawdown and cause a downward spiral in price.\"\nNow, the market needs to correct itself, because there were many over-leveraged traders, said Ong, adding that bitcoin options expire toward the end of every month, which usually causes increased volatility around that time.\nBitcoin Ban?\nDespite bitcoin's rise through mid-April and excitement leading up to Cionbase's offering, it wasn't all glitter and gold for the digital coin in past few weeks.\nNot only did coinbase's initial public offering somewhat disappoint in the days following, but star investors had been growing increasingly vocal about their skepticism of the cryptocurrency.\nHedgefund investor Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates told Yahoo News last month that he felt there was a “good probability” bitcoin could become outlawed in the U.S. He also questioned the privacy of the cryptocurrency's transactions. Then, last week, Guggenheim Partners’ Scott Minerd told CNBC that while he's bullish on bitcoin over the long-term, bitcoin is too \"frothy\" and could fall 50%.\nThe lukewarm reception from stock investors over Coinbase's direct listing and \"a lot of fear and uncertainty\" spreading on social media didn't help bitcoin, suggested Ong, noting the recent headlines of crypto bans in India and Turkey.\nBut aside from the technical and fundamental moves in crypto in the waning weeks of April -- much of what happened in the media was little more than hype and speculation, suggested Balter.\n\"I'd hate to go on record for ever saying Ray Dalio doesn't know what he's talking about,\" said Balter, who is also a partner with venture capital firm True Ventures. \"That said ... like any asset, there's always a great deal of speculation -- bitcoin is esteemed in that it presents both technical and financial implications, and thus magnifies that speculation immensely.\"\nAnd, that people like Dalio and Minerd are even talking about crypto so publicly on the record, shows how far the digital currency has come, noted Balter, also responding to a recent comment by value investor Bill Miller, who told CNBC this month that he sees bitcoin establishing itself in the \"mainstream.\"\n\"The fact that all three are going on record would indicate that bitcoin is likely entering the mainstream, so hat-tip to Mr. Miller,\" said Balter. \"The volatility of bitcoin has always been part of its allure, so cutting in half isn't out of the question.... Although, I don't think we'll ever see $10,000 levels again. As for Mr. Dalio, unfortunately the concept of outlawing an asset that is conceptually decentralized is pretty much out of the question, and bitcoin transactions are hardly private, so sorry Mr. Dalio, you are pretty off the mark.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9,"PYPL":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"BTCmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":357185457,"gmtCreate":1617246830679,"gmtModify":1634521821979,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573824362072096","idStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Money, money and more money!! 😂","listText":"Money, money and more money!! 😂","text":"Money, money and more money!! 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/357185457","repostId":"1172735914","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351487117,"gmtCreate":1616626624139,"gmtModify":1634524899190,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573824362072096","idStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂","listText":"Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂","text":"Hahaha, Who can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future? 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351487117","repostId":"2121457670","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1490,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327128921,"gmtCreate":1616071907063,"gmtModify":1634527392484,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573824362072096","idStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?","listText":"Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?","text":"Economy pick up, good? If inflation goes up, which is better, stocks or bonds?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327128921","repostId":"2120308231","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327904493,"gmtCreate":1616045517412,"gmtModify":1703496830771,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573824362072096","idStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂","listText":"Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂","text":"Fed has stated their position, and market is happy with it. 😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327904493","repostId":"1190013109","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1190013109","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616029868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1190013109?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 09:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会中学到了什么以及没有学到什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190013109","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we l","content":"<p>Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we learned, and what we didn’t, and some of the fun we had along the way.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三新闻发布会上的一些关键要点——我们学到了什么，没有学到什么，以及我们一路上的一些乐趣。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists said that Powell conducted a master class on communication.</p><p><blockquote>有经济学家表示，鲍威尔进行了一次沟通大师课。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a004e684c5e894d50023b88db3fcbd01\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"303\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed intends to be dovish until data indicates otherwise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储打算采取鸽派立场，直到数据显示并非如此</b></blockquote></p><p> The first step for the Fed to pull back its easy policy stance will be to slow, or taper, its $120 billion-per-month in asset purchases. The Fed has said it wants to make “substantial further progress” on its twin goals of maximum employment and stable 2% inflation, but has not defined this much further.</p><p><blockquote>美联储收回宽松政策立场的第一步将是放缓或缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。美联储表示，希望在最大就业和稳定2%通胀的双重目标上取得“实质性的进一步进展”，但没有进一步定义这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said the 465,000 jobs created in the private sector in February was “a nice pick-up,” but he quickly added “you can go so much higher, though.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，2月份私营部门创造的465,000个就业岗位是“一个不错的回升”，但他很快补充道，“不过，你还可以走得更高。”</blockquote></p><p> “To achieve substantial progress from where we are is going to take some time — I don’t want to put a pin in the calendar someplace because it’s going to take some time,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“从我们目前的位置取得实质性进展需要一些时间——我不想在日历上的某个地方放一个大头针，因为这需要一些时间。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>When will the data indicate otherwise? We’ll get back to you on that</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据什么时候会显示不是这样？我们会再联系你的</b></blockquote></p><p> “Until we give a signal, you can assume we’re not there yet,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“在我们发出信号之前，你可以假设我们还没有到达那里。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bad inflation readings this year won’t upset the apple cart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>今年糟糕的通胀数据不会扰乱苹果的购物车</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s economic forecast and “dot plot” seemed almost designed to hammer home the notion that the Fed won’t be spooked by higher inflation. Despite a forecast of 2.4% headline inflation this year, the Fed ‘s “dot-plot” showed no rate hikes through the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的经济预测和“点阵图”似乎几乎旨在强调美联储不会被通胀上升吓倒的观念。尽管预计今年总体通胀率为2.4%，但美联储的“点阵图”显示到2023年底不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Powell acknowledged prices will go up when Americans decide to go out again and eat in restaurants and go on airplanes as the pandemic wanes. But this will be a one-time bulge on prices that won’t change inflation going forward. Service-sector inflation isn’t like inflation for televisions or other goods.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认，随着疫情的消退，当美国人决定再次外出、在餐馆吃饭和乘坐飞机时，价格将会上涨。但这将是价格的一次性上涨，不会改变未来的通胀。服务业的通货膨胀不像电视或其他商品的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> “You can only go out to dinner once per night,” the Fed chairman said.</p><p><blockquote>“你每晚只能出去吃一次晚餐，”美联储主席说。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d1de1c6bb04ff0208bb5b68618167c\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"381\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed officials don’t know how the economy will look in September any more than you do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储官员比你更不知道9月份经济会如何</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. “We haven’t come out of a pandemic before, we haven’t had this type of fiscal support,” he said,</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔强调，前景仍然高度不确定。“我们以前从未摆脱过大流行，我们没有得到过这种类型的财政支持，”他说，</blockquote></p><p> Some of the worst-case scenarios are receding — there had been a concern that workers would be “scarred” without the job skills to find employment after the pandemic. With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>一些最坏的情况正在消退——有人担心，在疫情之后，如果没有就业技能，工人们将会“伤痕累累”。鲍威尔说，在国会的大力支持下，“我们可能避免了那里最糟糕的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> But sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.</p><p><blockquote>但有时，鲍威尔与生俱来的乐观情绪似乎会泄露出去。</blockquote></p><p> “The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这里的数据可能会很快变得更强，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Weak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲增长疲软不会蔓延到美国。</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，他不认为欧洲经济疲软会像大衰退后那样拖累美国经济增长。“我们的处境很好，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于SLR（补充杠杆率）的决定即将出台</b></blockquote></p><p> In the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. Powell wouldn’t touch the issue — he only said that a decision was expected in a few days.</p><p><blockquote>在去年疫情危机最严重的时候，美联储暂时将国债和美联储存款排除在补充杠杆率的计算之外，这是衡量银行稳健性的关键指标。SLR要求银行在不考虑风险的情况下维持最低水平的资产资本。一些分析师担心，在所有条件相同的情况下，结束国债排除将减少大银行对国债的需求。但其他分析师认为这被夸大了。鲍威尔没有触及这个问题——他只是说预计几天后会做出决定。</blockquote></p><p> But this disheartened some experts who want the exemption to be ended. After all, if the Fed wanted the exemption to end, it didn’t have to make any announcement at all, noted Jeremy Kress, a former Fed staffer and now an assistant professor of business law at Michigan Ross business school.</p><p><blockquote>但这让一些希望终止豁免的专家感到沮丧。前美联储工作人员、现任密歇根罗斯商学院商业法助理教授杰里米·克雷斯指出，毕竟，如果美联储希望终止豁免，它根本不必发布任何公告。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3eaacf5eed71300b67824f22aff330\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"545\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Financial markets were glad to see the Fed being so unconcerned about higher inflation.</p><p><blockquote>金融市场很高兴看到美联储对通胀上升如此漠不关心。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks pushed higher Wednesday,reversing earlier losses, after Fed policy makers left the central bank’s easy money stance in place, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 33,000 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储政策制定者维持央行的宽松货币立场后，美国股市周三走高，扭转了早些时候的跌势，道琼斯工业平均指数首次收于33,000点上方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会中学到了什么以及没有学到什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat we learned — and what we didn’t — from Jerome Powell’s press conference<blockquote>我们从杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会中学到了什么以及没有学到什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-18 09:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we learned, and what we didn’t, and some of the fun we had along the way.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三新闻发布会上的一些关键要点——我们学到了什么，没有学到什么，以及我们一路上的一些乐趣。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists said that Powell conducted a master class on communication.</p><p><blockquote>有经济学家表示，鲍威尔进行了一次沟通大师课。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a004e684c5e894d50023b88db3fcbd01\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"303\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed intends to be dovish until data indicates otherwise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储打算采取鸽派立场，直到数据显示并非如此</b></blockquote></p><p> The first step for the Fed to pull back its easy policy stance will be to slow, or taper, its $120 billion-per-month in asset purchases. The Fed has said it wants to make “substantial further progress” on its twin goals of maximum employment and stable 2% inflation, but has not defined this much further.</p><p><blockquote>美联储收回宽松政策立场的第一步将是放缓或缩减每月1200亿美元的资产购买规模。美联储表示，希望在最大就业和稳定2%通胀的双重目标上取得“实质性的进一步进展”，但没有进一步定义这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Powell said the 465,000 jobs created in the private sector in February was “a nice pick-up,” but he quickly added “you can go so much higher, though.”</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，2月份私营部门创造的465,000个就业岗位是“一个不错的回升”，但他很快补充道，“不过，你还可以走得更高。”</blockquote></p><p> “To achieve substantial progress from where we are is going to take some time — I don’t want to put a pin in the calendar someplace because it’s going to take some time,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说：“从我们目前的位置取得实质性进展需要一些时间——我不想在日历上的某个地方放一个大头针，因为这需要一些时间。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>When will the data indicate otherwise? We’ll get back to you on that</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据什么时候会显示不是这样？我们会再联系你的</b></blockquote></p><p> “Until we give a signal, you can assume we’re not there yet,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔说：“在我们发出信号之前，你可以假设我们还没有到达那里。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bad inflation readings this year won’t upset the apple cart</b></p><p><blockquote><b>今年糟糕的通胀数据不会扰乱苹果的购物车</b></blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s economic forecast and “dot plot” seemed almost designed to hammer home the notion that the Fed won’t be spooked by higher inflation. Despite a forecast of 2.4% headline inflation this year, the Fed ‘s “dot-plot” showed no rate hikes through the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的经济预测和“点阵图”似乎几乎旨在强调美联储不会被通胀上升吓倒的观念。尽管预计今年总体通胀率为2.4%，但美联储的“点阵图”显示到2023年底不会加息。</blockquote></p><p> Powell acknowledged prices will go up when Americans decide to go out again and eat in restaurants and go on airplanes as the pandemic wanes. But this will be a one-time bulge on prices that won’t change inflation going forward. Service-sector inflation isn’t like inflation for televisions or other goods.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔承认，随着疫情的消退，当美国人决定再次外出、在餐馆吃饭和乘坐飞机时，价格将会上涨。但这将是价格的一次性上涨，不会改变未来的通胀。服务业的通货膨胀不像电视或其他商品的通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> “You can only go out to dinner once per night,” the Fed chairman said.</p><p><blockquote>“你每晚只能出去吃一次晚餐，”美联储主席说。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98d1de1c6bb04ff0208bb5b68618167c\" tg-width=\"762\" tg-height=\"381\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Fed officials don’t know how the economy will look in September any more than you do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储官员比你更不知道9月份经济会如何</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. “We haven’t come out of a pandemic before, we haven’t had this type of fiscal support,” he said,</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔强调，前景仍然高度不确定。“我们以前从未摆脱过大流行，我们没有得到过这种类型的财政支持，”他说，</blockquote></p><p> Some of the worst-case scenarios are receding — there had been a concern that workers would be “scarred” without the job skills to find employment after the pandemic. With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.</p><p><blockquote>一些最坏的情况正在消退——有人担心，在疫情之后，如果没有就业技能，工人们将会“伤痕累累”。鲍威尔说，在国会的大力支持下，“我们可能避免了那里最糟糕的情况”。</blockquote></p><p> But sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.</p><p><blockquote>但有时，鲍威尔与生俱来的乐观情绪似乎会泄露出去。</blockquote></p><p> “The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“这里的数据可能会很快变得更强，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Weak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲增长疲软不会蔓延到美国。</b></blockquote></p><p> Powell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示，他不认为欧洲经济疲软会像大衰退后那样拖累美国经济增长。“我们的处境很好，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于SLR（补充杠杆率）的决定即将出台</b></blockquote></p><p> In the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. Powell wouldn’t touch the issue — he only said that a decision was expected in a few days.</p><p><blockquote>在去年疫情危机最严重的时候，美联储暂时将国债和美联储存款排除在补充杠杆率的计算之外，这是衡量银行稳健性的关键指标。SLR要求银行在不考虑风险的情况下维持最低水平的资产资本。一些分析师担心，在所有条件相同的情况下，结束国债排除将减少大银行对国债的需求。但其他分析师认为这被夸大了。鲍威尔没有触及这个问题——他只是说预计几天后会做出决定。</blockquote></p><p> But this disheartened some experts who want the exemption to be ended. After all, if the Fed wanted the exemption to end, it didn’t have to make any announcement at all, noted Jeremy Kress, a former Fed staffer and now an assistant professor of business law at Michigan Ross business school.</p><p><blockquote>但这让一些希望终止豁免的专家感到沮丧。前美联储工作人员、现任密歇根罗斯商学院商业法助理教授杰里米·克雷斯指出，毕竟，如果美联储希望终止豁免，它根本不必发布任何公告。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f3eaacf5eed71300b67824f22aff330\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"545\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Financial markets were glad to see the Fed being so unconcerned about higher inflation.</p><p><blockquote>金融市场很高兴看到美联储对通胀上升如此漠不关心。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks pushed higher Wednesday,reversing earlier losses, after Fed policy makers left the central bank’s easy money stance in place, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 33,000 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储政策制定者维持央行的宽松货币立场后，美国股市周三走高，扭转了早些时候的跌势，道琼斯工业平均指数首次收于33,000点上方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-we-learned-and-what-we-didnt-from-jerome-powells-press-conference-11616022318?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-we-learned-and-what-we-didnt-from-jerome-powells-press-conference-11616022318?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1190013109","content_text":"Here are some key takeaways from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference Wednesday — what we learned, and what we didn’t, and some of the fun we had along the way.\nSome economists said that Powell conducted a master class on communication.\n\nFed intends to be dovish until data indicates otherwise\nThe first step for the Fed to pull back its easy policy stance will be to slow, or taper, its $120 billion-per-month in asset purchases. The Fed has said it wants to make “substantial further progress” on its twin goals of maximum employment and stable 2% inflation, but has not defined this much further.\nPowell said the 465,000 jobs created in the private sector in February was “a nice pick-up,” but he quickly added “you can go so much higher, though.”\n“To achieve substantial progress from where we are is going to take some time — I don’t want to put a pin in the calendar someplace because it’s going to take some time,” he said.\nWhen will the data indicate otherwise? We’ll get back to you on that\n“Until we give a signal, you can assume we’re not there yet,” Powell said.\nBad inflation readings this year won’t upset the apple cart\nThe Fed’s economic forecast and “dot plot” seemed almost designed to hammer home the notion that the Fed won’t be spooked by higher inflation. Despite a forecast of 2.4% headline inflation this year, the Fed ‘s “dot-plot” showed no rate hikes through the end of 2023.\nPowell acknowledged prices will go up when Americans decide to go out again and eat in restaurants and go on airplanes as the pandemic wanes. But this will be a one-time bulge on prices that won’t change inflation going forward. Service-sector inflation isn’t like inflation for televisions or other goods.\n“You can only go out to dinner once per night,” the Fed chairman said.\n\nFed officials don’t know how the economy will look in September any more than you do\nPowell stressed that the outlook remains highly uncertain. “We haven’t come out of a pandemic before, we haven’t had this type of fiscal support,” he said,\nSome of the worst-case scenarios are receding — there had been a concern that workers would be “scarred” without the job skills to find employment after the pandemic. With strong support from Congress, “we probably avoided the worst cases there,” Powell said.\nBut sometimes, Powell’s innate optimism seemed to leak out.\n“The data could get stronger fairly quickly here,” he said.\nWeak growth in Europe won’t spill over into U.S.\nPowell said he didn’t think the weak European economy would drag down U.S. growth, as happened after the Great Recession. “We’re in a good place,” he said.\nA decision on the SLR (supplementary leveraged ratio) will come soon\nIn the heat of the pandemic crisis last year, the Fed temporarily excluded Treasurys and deposits at the Fed from the calculation of the supplementary leverage ratio — a key metric on the soundness of a bank. The SLR requires banks to maintain a minimum level of capital against assets without factoring in risks. Some analysts worry that ending the exclusion of Treasurys will, all things being equal,reduce demand for Treasurys at big banks.But other analysts think this is way overstated. Powell wouldn’t touch the issue — he only said that a decision was expected in a few days.\nBut this disheartened some experts who want the exemption to be ended. After all, if the Fed wanted the exemption to end, it didn’t have to make any announcement at all, noted Jeremy Kress, a former Fed staffer and now an assistant professor of business law at Michigan Ross business school.\n\nFinancial markets were glad to see the Fed being so unconcerned about higher inflation.\nU.S. stocks pushed higher Wednesday,reversing earlier losses, after Fed policy makers left the central bank’s easy money stance in place, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 33,000 for the first time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324381115,"gmtCreate":1615963809237,"gmtModify":1703495596253,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573824362072096","idStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅","listText":"Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅","text":"Market is seems like depending on Fed for next move. 😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324381115","repostId":"1103121082","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103121082","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615948559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103121082?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 10:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>宽松货币、点阵图和美联储的困境：重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103121082","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter ec","content":"<p>The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.</p><p><blockquote>美联储本周面临着一个尴尬的平衡行为：它可能会立即发布更光明的经济预测，同时试图向投资者保证它仍然“不考虑考虑”加息——而且也不需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> More-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.</p><p><blockquote>对国内生产总值、失业率和通胀的更乐观估计通常会促使人们承认货币政策将反过来开始收紧。对于依赖数据的美联储来说，经济改善速度远快于预期的信息与利率将在2023年之前保持在接近零的信息不一致。随着投资者接受新的经济预测、显示最新利率预测的点阵图以及主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会，美联储的政策机构联邦公开市场委员会如何试图解决这些相互冲突的动态将成为焦点。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国金融经济学家凯西·博斯特詹西奇(Kathy Bostjancic)表示：“这对他们来说是一条微妙的界限。”随着经济数据改善、Covid-19疫苗接种和通胀担忧加剧，债券市场价格将进一步收紧，而美联储则重申其鸽派立场。“你如何在传达你不会落后的同时表现出耐心？”</blockquote></p><p> The rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.</p><p><blockquote>费率决定和更新材料将于本周三下午2点发布。东部时间，接下来是鲍威尔的问答环节。以下是华尔街正在关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Updated economic forecasts:</b>In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新的经济预测：</b>在12月份的经济预测摘要中，FOMC预计2021年GDP增长4.2%，2022年增长3.2%，到2023年底通胀预期达到2%，从而意味着利率将在2024年开始上升。</blockquote></p><p> Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)首席经济学家Aneta Markowska认为，FOMC将把未来两年的GDP预期分别上调至6%和4%左右。她表示，到2022年下半年，这将使失业率低于自然失业率（在通胀保持稳定的情况下，一个经济体可以维持的最低失业率），这意味着2%的通胀预测将提前到2022年底——因此首次加息提前到2023年。（去年12月，美联储预计今年年底通胀率为1.8%。）</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员对让通胀率高于2%的目标表示欣慰。问题是增加多少。尽管FOMC可能会重申今年之后复苏将放缓，但新的预测可能会显示2022年和2023年的通胀率都将超过2%，到2023年底失业率将达到3.5%，从而满足美联储的标准摩根大通基金首席全球策略师大卫·凯利表示，通胀率高于2%和“最大就业”。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).</p><p><blockquote>然而，一些经济学家表示，美联储可能会更多地关注更广泛的失业率，即U-6失业率，其中包括灰心丧气的工人以及那些从事兼职工作但更愿意全职工作的人等。鉴于U-6比率(11.1%)比“官方”U-3比率(6.2%)高得多，这将给政策制定者更多的喘息空间。</blockquote></p><p> Given the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院的Bostjancic表示，鉴于美联储的新政策框架将最大就业定义为“基础广泛且包容性”的就业，希望阻碍美联储下一次利率变动的投资者应该关注U-6失业率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The dot plot:</b>In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.</p><p><blockquote><b>点阵图：</b>去年12月，在提交预测的17名FOMC成员中，只有一人预计在2022年底前加息，五人预计在2023年底前加息。尽管一些经济学家表示，美联储官员可能会对解除他们的立场持谨慎态度，或者表现得更加鹰派，从而为正在进行的长期利率飙升火上浇油，但其他人表示，美联储必须在利率前景上表现出一些变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>马科夫斯卡表示：“考虑到可能的预测修正幅度，很难证明政策前景不发生变化是合理的。”“不这样做将与数据依赖性不一致，并强烈表明美联储依赖日历（美联储坚称事实并非如此）。”与此同时，她表示，美联储并没有反对最近对利率预期的重新定价，这是对已经定价的内容的含蓄认可。</blockquote></p><p> Bostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic预计预测中值将显示2023年至少加息一次0.25%，而Markowska认为2023年dot中值可能升至0.375%（她指出，只有4名成员需要提高dot，或发出更高的预期联邦基金利率到2023年底——以调整利率预测中值。债券市场已消化到2023年底加息三个四分之一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bond market action:</b>How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>债市动作：</b>国债市场对美联储新信息的反应至少和信息本身一样有趣。博斯特扬西奇表示，美联储可能不会赶上市场在利率预期方面已经达到的水平，而是即使美联储稍微提高加息预期，也可能会刺激债券市场消化更多紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Capital利率策略主管伊恩·林根(Ian Lyngen)表示，鲍威尔大幅改变近期收益率走势立场的可能性很低，他坚称，只要此举是由经济前景和通胀预期改善推动的，重新定价就是正确的原因。他表示：“不用说，收益率上升是好事，直到收益率下降，而正是这样一个拐点代表了美联储更重大的政策风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Lyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.</p><p><blockquote>Lyngen正在关注10年期债券1.64%的水平（这是上周的收益率峰值，也是2020年2月初以来基准收益率的最高水平），并将该债券的目标定为1.75%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SLR exemption extension:</b>Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.</p><p><blockquote><b>SLR豁免延期：</b>随着大流行导致的停工层出不穷，围绕美联储去年4月推出的一项受欢迎计划的任何信号都可能推动周三的债券市场行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街希望延长美联储银行的国债和银行存款对银行补充杠杆率的临时豁免，该规定要求金融机构持有的资本相对于其总杠杆敞口至少为3%的最低比率。该豁免将于三月底到期。</blockquote></p><p> The exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.</p><p><blockquote>豁免的命运有着重大影响。Bostjancic指出，过去一年，银行购买的国债数量大幅增加了8540亿美元，而银行准备金则激增了1.8万亿美元。经济学家表示，缺乏延期可能会大大降低银行对美国国债的兴趣，给收益率带来更大的上行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Further easing watch:</b>Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”</p><p><blockquote><b>进一步宽松观察：</b>华尔街普遍预计不会有更多宽松政策，除非收益率出现更无序的飙升并且金融状况有意义地收紧。林根表示，就目前而言，联邦公开市场委员会“处于相当有利的地位，可以暂时坚持到底”，“即使这样的结果涉及在投资者保持警惕（如果不是担心的话）的阶段默许进一步抛售国债的风险。”</blockquote></p><p> As for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.</p><p><blockquote>至于对收益率无序跃升的潜在反应，经济学家表示，美联储有几个选择。Bostjancic表示，最直接的是，美联储可能会选择延长当前资产购买的期限。她表示，截至12月，当前计划下的平均期限为7.4年，并补充说政策制定者可以开始购买10至30年期国债。Bostjancic表示，这样做实际上是新“扭曲行动”的一部分，另一部分涉及短期国库券的销售。</blockquote></p><p> If financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic和其他人表示，如果金融状况更加急剧收紧，并且在收益率曲线上进一步买入被证明是不够的，美联储可能会尝试控制收益率曲线。</blockquote></p><p> YCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.</p><p><blockquote>YCC由二战后的美联储、2016年的日本央行和2020年的澳大利亚储备银行实施，旨在控制收益率曲线某一部分的利率，通过对特定期限的利率施加利率上限，直接瞄准长期利率。正如圣路易斯联储经济学家所言，由于债券价格和收益率呈负相关，这也意味着目标期限的价格下限：如果目标期限的债券价格（收益率）保持在下限之上（之下），央行什么也不做。但如果价格跌（涨）低于（高于）下限，央行就会购买定向到期债券——增加需求，从而提高这些债券的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Easy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>宽松货币、点阵图和美联储的困境：重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEasy Money, the Dot Plot, and the Fed’s Dilemma: An Investor Guide to a Key Meeting<blockquote>宽松货币、点阵图和美联储的困境：重要会议的投资者指南</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 10:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.</p><p><blockquote>美联储本周面临着一个尴尬的平衡行为：它可能会立即发布更光明的经济预测，同时试图向投资者保证它仍然“不考虑考虑”加息——而且也不需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> More-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.</p><p><blockquote>对国内生产总值、失业率和通胀的更乐观估计通常会促使人们承认货币政策将反过来开始收紧。对于依赖数据的美联储来说，经济改善速度远快于预期的信息与利率将在2023年之前保持在接近零的信息不一致。随着投资者接受新的经济预测、显示最新利率预测的点阵图以及主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的新闻发布会，美联储的政策机构联邦公开市场委员会如何试图解决这些相互冲突的动态将成为焦点。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院首席美国金融经济学家凯西·博斯特詹西奇(Kathy Bostjancic)表示：“这对他们来说是一条微妙的界限。”随着经济数据改善、Covid-19疫苗接种和通胀担忧加剧，债券市场价格将进一步收紧，而美联储则重申其鸽派立场。“你如何在传达你不会落后的同时表现出耐心？”</blockquote></p><p> The rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.</p><p><blockquote>费率决定和更新材料将于本周三下午2点发布。东部时间，接下来是鲍威尔的问答环节。以下是华尔街正在关注的内容。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Updated economic forecasts:</b>In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新的经济预测：</b>在12月份的经济预测摘要中，FOMC预计2021年GDP增长4.2%，2022年增长3.2%，到2023年底通胀预期达到2%，从而意味着利率将在2024年开始上升。</blockquote></p><p> Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)首席经济学家Aneta Markowska认为，FOMC将把未来两年的GDP预期分别上调至6%和4%左右。她表示，到2022年下半年，这将使失业率低于自然失业率（在通胀保持稳定的情况下，一个经济体可以维持的最低失业率），这意味着2%的通胀预测将提前到2022年底——因此首次加息提前到2023年。（去年12月，美联储预计今年年底通胀率为1.8%。）</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员对让通胀率高于2%的目标表示欣慰。问题是增加多少。尽管FOMC可能会重申今年之后复苏将放缓，但新的预测可能会显示2022年和2023年的通胀率都将超过2%，到2023年底失业率将达到3.5%，从而满足美联储的标准摩根大通基金首席全球策略师大卫·凯利表示，通胀率高于2%和“最大就业”。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).</p><p><blockquote>然而，一些经济学家表示，美联储可能会更多地关注更广泛的失业率，即U-6失业率，其中包括灰心丧气的工人以及那些从事兼职工作但更愿意全职工作的人等。鉴于U-6比率(11.1%)比“官方”U-3比率(6.2%)高得多，这将给政策制定者更多的喘息空间。</blockquote></p><p> Given the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.</p><p><blockquote>牛津经济研究院的Bostjancic表示，鉴于美联储的新政策框架将最大就业定义为“基础广泛且包容性”的就业，希望阻碍美联储下一次利率变动的投资者应该关注U-6失业率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The dot plot:</b>In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.</p><p><blockquote><b>点阵图：</b>去年12月，在提交预测的17名FOMC成员中，只有一人预计在2022年底前加息，五人预计在2023年底前加息。尽管一些经济学家表示，美联储官员可能会对解除他们的立场持谨慎态度，或者表现得更加鹰派，从而为正在进行的长期利率飙升火上浇油，但其他人表示，美联储必须在利率前景上表现出一些变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.</p><p><blockquote>马科夫斯卡表示：“考虑到可能的预测修正幅度，很难证明政策前景不发生变化是合理的。”“不这样做将与数据依赖性不一致，并强烈表明美联储依赖日历（美联储坚称事实并非如此）。”与此同时，她表示，美联储并没有反对最近对利率预期的重新定价，这是对已经定价的内容的含蓄认可。</blockquote></p><p> Bostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic预计预测中值将显示2023年至少加息一次0.25%，而Markowska认为2023年dot中值可能升至0.375%（她指出，只有4名成员需要提高dot，或发出更高的预期联邦基金利率到2023年底——以调整利率预测中值。债券市场已消化到2023年底加息三个四分之一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Bond market action:</b>How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.</p><p><blockquote><b>债市动作：</b>国债市场对美联储新信息的反应至少和信息本身一样有趣。博斯特扬西奇表示，美联储可能不会赶上市场在利率预期方面已经达到的水平，而是即使美联储稍微提高加息预期，也可能会刺激债券市场消化更多紧缩政策。</blockquote></p><p> Ian Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>BMO Capital利率策略主管伊恩·林根(Ian Lyngen)表示，鲍威尔大幅改变近期收益率走势立场的可能性很低，他坚称，只要此举是由经济前景和通胀预期改善推动的，重新定价就是正确的原因。他表示：“不用说，收益率上升是好事，直到收益率下降，而正是这样一个拐点代表了美联储更重大的政策风险。”</blockquote></p><p> Lyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.</p><p><blockquote>Lyngen正在关注10年期债券1.64%的水平（这是上周的收益率峰值，也是2020年2月初以来基准收益率的最高水平），并将该债券的目标定为1.75%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SLR exemption extension:</b>Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.</p><p><blockquote><b>SLR豁免延期：</b>随着大流行导致的停工层出不穷，围绕美联储去年4月推出的一项受欢迎计划的任何信号都可能推动周三的债券市场行动。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街希望延长美联储银行的国债和银行存款对银行补充杠杆率的临时豁免，该规定要求金融机构持有的资本相对于其总杠杆敞口至少为3%的最低比率。该豁免将于三月底到期。</blockquote></p><p> The exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.</p><p><blockquote>豁免的命运有着重大影响。Bostjancic指出，过去一年，银行购买的国债数量大幅增加了8540亿美元，而银行准备金则激增了1.8万亿美元。经济学家表示，缺乏延期可能会大大降低银行对美国国债的兴趣，给收益率带来更大的上行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Further easing watch:</b>Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”</p><p><blockquote><b>进一步宽松观察：</b>华尔街普遍预计不会有更多宽松政策，除非收益率出现更无序的飙升并且金融状况有意义地收紧。林根表示，就目前而言，联邦公开市场委员会“处于相当有利的地位，可以暂时坚持到底”，“即使这样的结果涉及在投资者保持警惕（如果不是担心的话）的阶段默许进一步抛售国债的风险。”</blockquote></p><p> As for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.</p><p><blockquote>至于对收益率无序跃升的潜在反应，经济学家表示，美联储有几个选择。Bostjancic表示，最直接的是，美联储可能会选择延长当前资产购买的期限。她表示，截至12月，当前计划下的平均期限为7.4年，并补充说政策制定者可以开始购买10至30年期国债。Bostjancic表示，这样做实际上是新“扭曲行动”的一部分，另一部分涉及短期国库券的销售。</blockquote></p><p> If financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.</p><p><blockquote>Bostjancic和其他人表示，如果金融状况更加急剧收紧，并且在收益率曲线上进一步买入被证明是不够的，美联储可能会尝试控制收益率曲线。</blockquote></p><p> YCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.</p><p><blockquote>YCC由二战后的美联储、2016年的日本央行和2020年的澳大利亚储备银行实施，旨在控制收益率曲线某一部分的利率，通过对特定期限的利率施加利率上限，直接瞄准长期利率。正如圣路易斯联储经济学家所言，由于债券价格和收益率呈负相关，这也意味着目标期限的价格下限：如果目标期限的债券价格（收益率）保持在下限之上（之下），央行什么也不做。但如果价格跌（涨）低于（高于）下限，央行就会购买定向到期债券——增加需求，从而提高这些债券的价格。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/easy-money-the-dot-plot-and-the-feds-dilemma-an-investor-guide-to-a-key-meeting-51615905001?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103121082","content_text":"The Federal Reserve has an awkward balancing act this week: It’s likely to at once issue brighter economic forecasts while trying to assure investors that it is still “not thinking about thinking about” lifting interest rates—and that it doesn’t need to.\nMore-optimistic estimates for gross domestic product, unemployment and inflation would typically prompt an acknowledgement that monetary policy would, in turn, begin to tighten. For a data-dependent Fed, the message that the economy is improving much faster than expected is at odds with the message that rates will remain near zero through 2023. How the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed’s policy arm, tries to square those conflicting dynamics will be in focus as investors take in new economic forecasts, the dot plot showing updated rate predictions, and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference.\n“It’s a fine line for them to walk,” says Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, as the bond market prices in more tightening amid improving economic data, Covid-19 vaccinations, and building inflation concerns, while the Fed reiterates its dovish stance. “How do you telegraph patience while conveying you won’t be behind the curve?”\nThe rate decision and updated materials will be released this Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern time, with Powell’s question-and-answer session following. Here is a run down of what Wall Street is watching.\nUpdated economic forecasts:In the December Summary of Economic Projections, the FOMC projected 4.2% GDP growth for 2021 and 3.2% for 2022, bringing its inflation expectation to 2% by the end of 2023 and thus implying rates would begin to rise in 2024.\nAneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies, thinks the FOMC will raise GDP forecasts for the next two years to about 6% and 4%, respectively. This should push the unemployment rate below the natural rate (the lowest unemployment rate an economy can sustain with inflation remaining stable) by the second half of 2022, she says, meaning the 2% inflation forecast would be pulled forward to the end of 2022—and the first rate hike therefore pulled forward to 2023. (In December, the Fed projected inflation at a 1.8% rate at the end of this year.)\nFed officials have expressed comfort in letting inflation run hotter than the 2% target. The question is by how much. Even though the FOMC will likely repeat that the recovery will slow after this year, new forecasts may show inflation of over 2% in both 2022 and 2023 alongside an unemployment rate of 3.5% by the end of 2023, thereby meeting the Fed’s criteria of inflation above 2% and “maximum employment,” says David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds.\nSome economists, however, say the Fed may focus more on a broader unemployment rate, known as the U-6 rate, that includes discouraged workers plus those who are working part time but would prefer to work full time, among others. That would give policy makers more breathing room given how much higher U-6 stands (11.1%) compared with the “official” U-3 rate (6.2%).\nGiven the Fed’s new policy framework defines maximum employment as consisting of ‘broad-based and inclusive’ employment, investors looking to handicap the Fed’s next rate move should monitor the U-6 unemployment rate, says Bostjancic of Oxford Economics.\nThe dot plot:In December, only one of 17 FOMC members submitting forecasts saw a rate hike by the end of 2022 and five saw a rate hike by the end of 2023. While some economists say Fed officials may be wary of lifting their dots, or appearing more hawkish and thereby adding fuel to a surge in long-term interest rates that has been under way, others say the Fed has to show some change in its rate outlook.\n“Given the magnitude of the likely forecast revisions, it would be hard to justify no change in the policy outlook,” says Markowska. “Not doing so would be inconsistent with data-dependency and would strongly suggest that the Fed is calendar dependent (which the Fed insists it isn’t).” At the same time, she says, the Fed hasn’t pushed back against the recent repricing of rate expectations, which is an implicit endorsement of what’s already priced in.\nBostjancic expects the median forecast to show at least one 0.25% rate hike during 2023, while Markowska thinks the median 2023 dot could rise to 0.375% (she notes only 4 members need to lift their dots—or signal a higher expected Fed funds rate by the end of 2023—to move the median rate projection. The bond market has priced in three quarter-point increases by the end of 2023.\nBond market action:How the Treasury market reacts to the new Fed information will be at least as interesting as the information itself. Instead of the Fed potentially catching up to where the market already is in terms of rate expectations, Bostjancic says even a whiff of the Fed pulling forward rate hike expectations could spur the bond market to price in more tightening.\nIan Lyngen, head of rates strategy at BMO Capital, says chances are low Powell will meaningfully alter his stance on the recent yield action, maintaining that as long as the move is driven by an improving economic outlook and inflation expectations, the repricing is for the right reasons. “Needless to say, higher yields are good until they are not and it’s just such an inflection point that represents the more significant policy risk for the Fed,” he says.\nLyngen is watching the 1.64% level on the 10-year (it was last week’s yield peak as well as the highest for the benchmark since early-February 2020) and has a 1.75% target on the note.\nSLR exemption extension:Potentially contributing to bond market action on Wednesday will be any signal around the Fed’s plan for a popular program launched last April, as pandemic-driven shutdowns cascaded.\nWall Street is hoping for an extension of a temporary exemption of Treasuries and bank deposits at the Fed Reserve Banks from the banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio, which requires financial institutions hold a minimum ratio of at least 3% in capital measured against their total leverage exposure. The exemption is set to expire at the end of March.\nThe exemption’s fate has big implications. Over the past year, banks have increased their purchases of Treasuries by a large $854 billion, while bank reserves have ballooned by $1.8 trillion, Bostjancic notes. Economists say the lack of an extension could significantly lessen banks’ appetite for Treasuries, putting even more upward pressure on yields.\nFurther easing watch:Wall Street generally doesn’t expect more easing unless yields stage a more disorderly surge and financial conditions meaningfully tighten. For now, the FOMC “is reasonably well positioned to stay the course for the time being,” Lyngen says, “even if such an outcome involves the risk of tacitly endorsing a further Treasury selloff at stage when investors are wary, if not worried.”\nAs for potential responses to any disorderly jump in yields, economists say the Fed has a few options. Most immediately, the Fed could opt to lengthen the duration of its current asset purchases, says Bostjancic. As of December, the average maturity under the current program was 7.4 years, she says, adding that policy makers could start buying 10- to 30-year Treasuries. Doing so would effectively be one part of a new “operation twist,” with the other leg involving the sale of short-date Treasury bills, Bostjancic says.\nIf financial conditions tighten much more sharply and buying further out on the yield curve proves insufficient, Bostjancic and others say the Fed could attempt yield curve control.\nYCC, undertaken by the Fed after World War II, the Bank of Japan in 2016, and the Reserve Bank of Australia in 2020, aims to control interest rates along some portion of the yield curve, targeting longer-term rates directly by imposing interest rate caps on particular maturities.As economists at the St. Louis Fed put it, because bond prices and yields are inversely related, this also implies a price floor for targeted maturities: if bond prices (yields) of targeted maturities remain above (below) the floor, the central bank does nothing. But if prices fall (rise) below (above) the floor, the central bank buys targeted-maturity bonds—increasing the demand and thus the price of those bonds.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":328633897,"gmtCreate":1615518317119,"gmtModify":1703490327233,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573824362072096","idStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)","listText":"Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)","text":"Too much money, will only flow into stocks. :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328633897","repostId":"1134483939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":329575665,"gmtCreate":1615263978957,"gmtModify":1703486451394,"author":{"id":"3573824362072096","authorId":"3573824362072096","name":"YHY73","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be96a5b065c45430edc271b22e18172a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573824362072096","idStr":"3573824362072096"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Correction is good and healthy. ","listText":"Correction is good and healthy. ","text":"Correction is good and healthy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/329575665","repostId":"1177211195","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177211195","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615213425,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177211195?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-08 22:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177211195","media":"CNN Business","summary":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's","content":"<p><b>London (CNN Business) - </b>Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN商业）——</b>苹果(AAPL)股价较1月份高点下跌超过15%。亚马逊股价较2月初的近期峰值下跌11%。芯片制造商英伟达(NVDA)的股价自上个月中旬以来已暴跌近19%。</blockquote></p><p>What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>正在发生的事情：科技公司受到最近市场抛售的打击。该行业的许多股票已进入回调，较近期峰值下跌至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数可能也不甘落后。该指数周五收盘较2月12日创下的历史新高低8%以上。期货指向周一另一个艰难的交易时段。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc50317ec0fe580acd1407307915d8fa\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>分解一下：投资者越来越担心，随着人们涌向餐馆和预订假期，今年晚些时候许多大型经济体的重新开放将导致价格飙升。这可能会给美联储等央行带来压力，要求其比预期更早加息。</blockquote></p><p>Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.</p><p><blockquote>最低利率对快速增长的科技公司来说是一个福音。它们帮助将政府债券的收益率保持在极低的水平，提高了人们对风险较高的投资的兴趣，例如提供更好回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p>But now, bond yields are rising on inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，由于通胀担忧，债券收益率正在上升。这可能会让美国国债等资产开始显得更具吸引力，引发过去11个月如此受欢迎的科技股资金外流。</blockquote></p><p>Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.</p><p><blockquote>荷宝(Robeco)投资组合经理耶鲁安·布洛克兰(Jeroen Blokland)认为，随着对经济增长的预期不断改善，受益于健康经济的银行业等行业的所谓“价值”股票可能会开始受到重新审视。</blockquote></p><p>\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果你相信整个重新开放和对GDP增长的估计……这意味着增长不那么稀缺，”他告诉我。“[那么]价值板块至少有可能迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p>See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.</p><p><blockquote>请参阅此处：追踪美国顶级银行的KBW银行指数今年上涨了20%以上。与此同时，纳斯达克几乎抹去了2021年的所有涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师认为下跌是健康的，许多科技公司的股价上涨太多、太快。</blockquote></p><p>Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.</p><p><blockquote>持续抛售可能取决于未来几天我们从央行行长那里听到的消息。本周晚些时候召开会议的欧洲央行已经明确表示，如果认为债券收益率快速上升将导致金融状况收紧，将采取一些行动。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有那么明确。</blockquote></p><p>Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>布洛克兰认为，如果本周10年期美国国债收益率大幅走高，鲍威尔可能别无选择，只能强烈断言美联储将采取必要行动，确保经济复苏不受市场动荡的影响。</blockquote></p><p>\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们再有像上周那样的一周，[他]就必须做点什么，”布洛克兰说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Top tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTop tech stocks are in correction territory. Here's why<blockquote>顶级科技股正处于调整区域。原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-08 22:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>London (CNN Business) - </b>Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.</p><p><blockquote><b>伦敦（CNN商业）——</b>苹果(AAPL)股价较1月份高点下跌超过15%。亚马逊股价较2月初的近期峰值下跌11%。芯片制造商英伟达(NVDA)的股价自上个月中旬以来已暴跌近19%。</blockquote></p><p>What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>正在发生的事情：科技公司受到最近市场抛售的打击。该行业的许多股票已进入回调，较近期峰值下跌至少10%。</blockquote></p><p>The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数可能也不甘落后。该指数周五收盘较2月12日创下的历史新高低8%以上。期货指向周一另一个艰难的交易时段。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc50317ec0fe580acd1407307915d8fa\" tg-width=\"1070\" tg-height=\"651\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>分解一下：投资者越来越担心，随着人们涌向餐馆和预订假期，今年晚些时候许多大型经济体的重新开放将导致价格飙升。这可能会给美联储等央行带来压力，要求其比预期更早加息。</blockquote></p><p>Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.</p><p><blockquote>最低利率对快速增长的科技公司来说是一个福音。它们帮助将政府债券的收益率保持在极低的水平，提高了人们对风险较高的投资的兴趣，例如提供更好回报的股票。</blockquote></p><p>But now, bond yields are rising on inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>但现在，由于通胀担忧，债券收益率正在上升。这可能会让美国国债等资产开始显得更具吸引力，引发过去11个月如此受欢迎的科技股资金外流。</blockquote></p><p>Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.</p><p><blockquote>荷宝(Robeco)投资组合经理耶鲁安·布洛克兰(Jeroen Blokland)认为，随着对经济增长的预期不断改善，受益于健康经济的银行业等行业的所谓“价值”股票可能会开始受到重新审视。</blockquote></p><p>\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果你相信整个重新开放和对GDP增长的估计……这意味着增长不那么稀缺，”他告诉我。“[那么]价值板块至少有可能迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p>See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.</p><p><blockquote>请参阅此处：追踪美国顶级银行的KBW银行指数今年上涨了20%以上。与此同时，纳斯达克几乎抹去了2021年的所有涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.</p><p><blockquote>许多策略师认为下跌是健康的，许多科技公司的股价上涨太多、太快。</blockquote></p><p>Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.</p><p><blockquote>持续抛售可能取决于未来几天我们从央行行长那里听到的消息。本周晚些时候召开会议的欧洲央行已经明确表示，如果认为债券收益率快速上升将导致金融状况收紧，将采取一些行动。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有那么明确。</blockquote></p><p>Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.</p><p><blockquote>布洛克兰认为，如果本周10年期美国国债收益率大幅走高，鲍威尔可能别无选择，只能强烈断言美联储将采取必要行动，确保经济复苏不受市场动荡的影响。</blockquote></p><p>\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.</p><p><blockquote>“如果我们再有像上周那样的一周，[他]就必须做点什么，”布洛克兰说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GOOGL":"谷歌A","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊","NFLX":"奈飞","GOOG":"谷歌","MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/08/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177211195","content_text":"London (CNN Business) - Apple (AAPL) shares are down more than 15% from their January high. Amazon's stock is off 11% from a recent peak in early February. And chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has seen its shares plunge nearly 19% since the middle of last month.What's happening: Tech companies are getting hammered by the recent sell-off in markets. Many stocks in the sector have entered a correction, logging declines of at least 10% from their recent peaks.The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite may not be far behind. The index finished Friday more than 8% below the record high notched on Feb. 12. Futures point to another rough trading session on Monday.Breaking it down: Investors have become increasingly worried that the reopening of many big economies later this year will lead to a spike in prices as people rush out to restaurants and book vacations. That could put pressure on central banks like the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than expected.Rock-bottom rates have been a boon for fast-growing tech companies. They've helped keep yields on government bonds extremely low, boosting interest in riskier investments like stocks that offer better returns.But now, bond yields are rising on inflation concerns. That could make assets like US Treasuries start to appear more enticing — triggering outflows from the tech names that have been so popular over the past 11 months.Jeroen Blokland, a portfolio manager at Robeco, thinks that as estimates for economic growth continue to improve, so-called \"value\" stocks in sectors like banking — which benefit from a healthy economy — may begin to get a second look.\"If you believe in this whole reopening and estimates of GDP growth ... that means growth is less scarce,\" he told me. \"[Then the] value sector has at least the possibility to play catch up.\"See here: The KBW Bank Index, which tracks top US lenders, is up more than 20% this year. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has almost wiped out all of its 2021 gains.Many strategists think the declines are healthy, and that share prices of many tech companies shot up too much, too fast.Continued selling may hinge on what we hear from central bankers in the coming days. The European Central Bank, which meets later this week, has stated clearly that it will take some action if it believes the rapid increase in bond yields will lead to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been less explicit.Blokland thinks that if the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note marches significantly higher this week, Powell may have no choice but to strongly assert that the Fed will act as necessary to ensure the economic recovery isn't affected by market turmoil.\"If we have another week like last week, [he has] to do something,\" Blokland said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"FB":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"MSFT":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}