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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-10-27
  OK
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-07-07
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-07-05
  坑
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-06-16
  任务
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-04-17
  Good
  买房还是买股票？美国居民当前这么看
  2021年，美国家庭更加青睐房地产。
  买房还是买股票？美国居民当前这么看
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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-03-18
  TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT,累
  2,069 评论
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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-03-18
  $新石文化(01740)$试了一试仙股
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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-03-18
  泡泡吹大一点，韭菜再套多一点。
  昨夜，美联储说了哪些要点？
  美联储大幅上调了对今年的经济预期，小幅上调了对未来两年的预期。　　预计今年通胀将触达2.4%，但鲍威尔认为通胀的上行是短暂的。　　对银行业监管以及SLR指标问题不予置评，因为未来几天马上就会公布结果。　　综合鲍威尔在发布会上的表态来看，本次会议倾向整体偏鸽派，安抚了之前敏感的市场。　　投资者需要关注三个要点，第一是联储重新拥抱了“数据依赖性”，并不断强调自己将按照新的平均通胀目标框架行事。
  昨夜，美联储说了哪些要点？
  2,065 评论
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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-03-17
  被套住了，还要等多久
  2,072 评论
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- HHYFHHSFHHYFHHSF
  ·2021-03-17
  $中芯国际(00981)$慢慢来
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14:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"买房还是买股票？美国居民当前这么看","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2128537854","media":"格隆汇","summary":"2021年，美国家庭更加青睐房地产。","content":"<p>疫情冲击下居民储蓄大幅增加几乎是全球面临的共同问题。除了消费外，如何合理进行投资布局？纽约联储的这篇报告可能给我一些线索。美国房地产的部分数据在今年第一季度有所放缓，但从微观层面来看，我们不妨乐观一点。</p>\n<p><b>正文</b></p>\n<p><b>住房是大多数家庭拥有的最大额资产，并且是财富积累的主要手段，对于中产阶级尤其如此</b>。然而，对于家庭如何看待和比较房地产投资和金融投资我们了解很有限，这部分是因为它们的差异超出了常见的风险和收益标准。一方面，住房是家庭加杠杆的重要来源，同时也是可靠的储蓄保值工具。自住住宅还可以为住房成本上涨提供稳定性和有效对冲。另一方面，住房的流动性远低于金融资产，并且需要更多的时间来管理。</p>\n<p>在这篇文章中，我们使用来自刚刚发布的SCE住房调查的数据来回答有关家庭如何看待房地产的几个相关问题：与金融资产（例如股票）相比，家庭是否将住房视为一种良好的投资选择？不同人群是否对住房投资的偏好存在差异？家庭选择房市还是股市时会考虑哪些因素？</p>\n<h3><b>调查数据的设计</b></h3>\n<p>SCE住房调查中最近推出一项新调查，针对性调研住户对房地产和股市的偏好及背后的原因。在调查中，受访者将在假想自己为本地区一对30多岁的夫妇提供理财建议：买房子还是买股票，这对夫妇正好刚获得一笔可以足额支付购房预付款的馈赠资金。问题有两种场景：一种是问这对年轻夫妇是购买自住住宅还是投资于股票市场，另一种是假设这对夫妇已经拥有住房，他们是该投资租赁地产还是股票。</p>\n<p>每个受访者随机回答上述某一问题。在给出建议后，受访者还需从一系列因素中选择作出该项建议的理由，这些因素包括股票收益更高，房地产收益波动更小，是不是可靠的储蓄保值工具等，或者也可以提供自己的理由。这一调查分别在2020年2月（主要是在美国COVID-19爆发之前），2020年10月和2021年2月进行，结果报告如下：</p>\n<h3><b>住房是一种很好的投资</b></h3>\n<p>下表列出了不同阶段房市股市理财建议的结果分布情况。一般而言，<b>与股市相比，家庭普遍认为住房是一种好的投资</b>。当被问及是投资租赁房地产还是投资股市时，超过50%的调查家庭都推荐了住房。在首套住宅与股票的选择场景中，超过90%的受访者选择住房，对住房的偏好更为强烈。</p>\n<p>一个有趣的发现是，<b>人们对房地产的偏好在2020年10月有所下降，到2021年2月又回到了疫情前的水平</b>。通过考察这些选择的理由，我们发现2020年10月，这种从房地产偏好的转变并不是由较低的房价预期推动，而是反映了其他原因。例如，投资者更担心空置出租房屋的风险。对于购买自住住宅，疫情爆发后调查对象更少在意自住住宅提供的稳定性，这可能是因为担心无法支付抵押贷款导致在当前房屋中居住的期限会缩短。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7446f0bfef91d753b549564a8bb711bb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"832\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847eb2c2296ba22d4e737a7120244700\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<h3><b>不同人群看待房地产投资有什么差异？</b></h3>\n<p>接下来我们研究了不同人群对房地产投资的看法差异。<b>影响问卷回答的两个重要因素是性别和教育</b>。在这一分析中，我们将重点放在租赁住房与股票的比较上。下一张图表显示，<b>女性和非大学毕业生比其他人更青睐住房</b>。</p>\n<p>对于性别差异，部分解释是在我们的样本中，男性比女性更愿意承担风险，更愿意投资股市，因为股市的回报率波动性更大。对于教育差距，大学毕业生倾向于认为股市的回报高于住房市场，并将“管理租赁房产耗时”作为选择股市的理由之一。</p>\n<p>我们还注意到，在2020年10月的调查中，由于女性和非大学毕业生暂时降低对房地产的偏好，这些性别和教育方面的差距大大缩小。在未来的研究中，我们打算研究性别和教育差距背后的因素，以及为什么他们在疫情爆发期间暂时降低对房市的青睐。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f2d9bb4a87ab766c9b9efd11c4e9187\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<h3><b>选择住房的原因</b></h3>\n<p>谈到选择住房的原因，下图显示了受访者推荐选择购买首套住宅而不是投资股市的各个原因的比例。受访者可以选择多个原因。可以看到每个理由的选择比例都很合理。\"理想稳定的生活环境 \"和 \"房价波动较小 \"是最常见的原因。与2020年的回答相比，<b>2021年有更多的调查对象选择了更高的住房回报、波动性较小这两个原因</b>，而选择其他原因的调查对象则较少，包括例如节省租金、稳定、锁定住房成本、有效的储蓄手段等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b5e4a78e93e5b919a8ccf14824ba5c6\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<h3><b>结论</b></h3>\n<p>房地产是中产阶级家庭的重要资产类别。疫情爆发前和期间进行的调查表明，相对于股票市场而言，投资者认为住房（包括租赁房产和自住住宅）是一项良好的投资。不同人群对住房的偏好存在重要差异，女性和非大学毕业生更偏好住房。与疫情爆发前相比，现在有更多的家庭将较高的回报和较低的波动性作为进入房市的理由。</p>\n<p><i>本文译自纽约联储近日发表的《</i><b><i>Do People View Housing as a Good Investment and Why?</i></b><i>》，Andrew Haughwout, Haoyang Liu, Dean Parker, and Xiaohan Zhang</i></p>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>买房还是买股票？美国居民当前这么看</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n买房还是买股票？美国居民当前这么看\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-17 14:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/460858><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>疫情冲击下居民储蓄大幅增加几乎是全球面临的共同问题。除了消费外，如何合理进行投资布局？纽约联储的这篇报告可能给我一些线索。美国房地产的部分数据在今年第一季度有所放缓，但从微观层面来看，我们不妨乐观一点。\n正文\n住房是大多数家庭拥有的最大额资产，并且是财富积累的主要手段，对于中产阶级尤其如此。然而，对于家庭如何看待和比较房地产投资和金融投资我们了解很有限，这部分是因为它们的差异超出了常见的风险和收益...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/460858\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b88e2fdae8e5bd88881023c7c82026ea","relate_stocks":{"09979":"绿城管理控股"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/460858","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2128537854","content_text":"疫情冲击下居民储蓄大幅增加几乎是全球面临的共同问题。除了消费外，如何合理进行投资布局？纽约联储的这篇报告可能给我一些线索。美国房地产的部分数据在今年第一季度有所放缓，但从微观层面来看，我们不妨乐观一点。\n正文\n住房是大多数家庭拥有的最大额资产，并且是财富积累的主要手段，对于中产阶级尤其如此。然而，对于家庭如何看待和比较房地产投资和金融投资我们了解很有限，这部分是因为它们的差异超出了常见的风险和收益标准。一方面，住房是家庭加杠杆的重要来源，同时也是可靠的储蓄保值工具。自住住宅还可以为住房成本上涨提供稳定性和有效对冲。另一方面，住房的流动性远低于金融资产，并且需要更多的时间来管理。\n在这篇文章中，我们使用来自刚刚发布的SCE住房调查的数据来回答有关家庭如何看待房地产的几个相关问题：与金融资产（例如股票）相比，家庭是否将住房视为一种良好的投资选择？不同人群是否对住房投资的偏好存在差异？家庭选择房市还是股市时会考虑哪些因素？\n调查数据的设计\nSCE住房调查中最近推出一项新调查，针对性调研住户对房地产和股市的偏好及背后的原因。在调查中，受访者将在假想自己为本地区一对30多岁的夫妇提供理财建议：买房子还是买股票，这对夫妇正好刚获得一笔可以足额支付购房预付款的馈赠资金。问题有两种场景：一种是问这对年轻夫妇是购买自住住宅还是投资于股票市场，另一种是假设这对夫妇已经拥有住房，他们是该投资租赁地产还是股票。\n每个受访者随机回答上述某一问题。在给出建议后，受访者还需从一系列因素中选择作出该项建议的理由，这些因素包括股票收益更高，房地产收益波动更小，是不是可靠的储蓄保值工具等，或者也可以提供自己的理由。这一调查分别在2020年2月（主要是在美国COVID-19爆发之前），2020年10月和2021年2月进行，结果报告如下：\n住房是一种很好的投资\n下表列出了不同阶段房市股市理财建议的结果分布情况。一般而言，与股市相比，家庭普遍认为住房是一种好的投资。当被问及是投资租赁房地产还是投资股市时，超过50%的调查家庭都推荐了住房。在首套住宅与股票的选择场景中，超过90%的受访者选择住房，对住房的偏好更为强烈。\n一个有趣的发现是，人们对房地产的偏好在2020年10月有所下降，到2021年2月又回到了疫情前的水平。通过考察这些选择的理由，我们发现2020年10月，这种从房地产偏好的转变并不是由较低的房价预期推动，而是反映了其他原因。例如，投资者更担心空置出租房屋的风险。对于购买自住住宅，疫情爆发后调查对象更少在意自住住宅提供的稳定性，这可能是因为担心无法支付抵押贷款导致在当前房屋中居住的期限会缩短。\n\n\n不同人群看待房地产投资有什么差异？\n接下来我们研究了不同人群对房地产投资的看法差异。影响问卷回答的两个重要因素是性别和教育。在这一分析中，我们将重点放在租赁住房与股票的比较上。下一张图表显示，女性和非大学毕业生比其他人更青睐住房。\n对于性别差异，部分解释是在我们的样本中，男性比女性更愿意承担风险，更愿意投资股市，因为股市的回报率波动性更大。对于教育差距，大学毕业生倾向于认为股市的回报高于住房市场，并将“管理租赁房产耗时”作为选择股市的理由之一。\n我们还注意到，在2020年10月的调查中，由于女性和非大学毕业生暂时降低对房地产的偏好，这些性别和教育方面的差距大大缩小。在未来的研究中，我们打算研究性别和教育差距背后的因素，以及为什么他们在疫情爆发期间暂时降低对房市的青睐。\n\n选择住房的原因\n谈到选择住房的原因，下图显示了受访者推荐选择购买首套住宅而不是投资股市的各个原因的比例。受访者可以选择多个原因。可以看到每个理由的选择比例都很合理。\"理想稳定的生活环境 \"和 \"房价波动较小 \"是最常见的原因。与2020年的回答相比，2021年有更多的调查对象选择了更高的住房回报、波动性较小这两个原因，而选择其他原因的调查对象则较少，包括例如节省租金、稳定、锁定住房成本、有效的储蓄手段等。\n\n结论\n房地产是中产阶级家庭的重要资产类别。疫情爆发前和期间进行的调查表明，相对于股票市场而言，投资者认为住房（包括租赁房产和自住住宅）是一项良好的投资。不同人群对住房的偏好存在重要差异，女性和非大学毕业生更偏好住房。与疫情爆发前相比，现在有更多的家庭将较高的回报和较低的波动性作为进入房市的理由。\n本文译自纽约联储近日发表的《Do People View Housing as a Good Investment and Why?》，Andrew Haughwout, Haoyang Liu, Dean Parker, and Xiaohan Zhang","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09979":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1400,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327630953,"gmtCreate":1616079003472,"gmtModify":1634527334495,"author":{"id":"3574844095863997","authorId":"3574844095863997","name":"HHYFHHSF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792480317c9c350a1fb4676d7885126d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574844095863997","authorIdStr":"3574844095863997"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT,累","listText":"TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT,累","text":"TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT,累","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/457715e0dc658a3663cba3eb8bb72edb","width":"1080","height":"2866"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327630953","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327935444,"gmtCreate":1616048013188,"gmtModify":1703496856123,"author":{"id":"3574844095863997","authorId":"3574844095863997","name":"HHYFHHSF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792480317c9c350a1fb4676d7885126d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574844095863997","authorIdStr":"3574844095863997"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01740\">$新石文化(01740)$</a>试了一试仙股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01740\">$新石文化(01740)$</a>试了一试仙股","text":"$新石文化(01740)$试了一试仙股","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6594b4581a250600458d11e7012cfa0b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327935444","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":327030276,"gmtCreate":1616037148395,"gmtModify":1703496709339,"author":{"id":"3574844095863997","authorId":"3574844095863997","name":"HHYFHHSF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792480317c9c350a1fb4676d7885126d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574844095863997","authorIdStr":"3574844095863997"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"泡泡吹大一点，韭菜再套多一点。","listText":"泡泡吹大一点，韭菜再套多一点。","text":"泡泡吹大一点，韭菜再套多一点。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327030276","repostId":"2120139461","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2120139461","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616028241,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2120139461?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-18 08:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"昨夜，美联储说了哪些要点？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2120139461","media":"智堡Wisburg","summary":"美联储大幅上调了对今年的经济预期，小幅上调了对未来两年的预期。　　预计今年通胀将触达2.4%，但鲍威尔认为通胀的上行是短暂的。　　对银行业监管以及SLR指标问题不予置评，因为未来几天马上就会公布结果。　　综合鲍威尔在发布会上的表态来看，本次会议倾向整体偏鸽派，安抚了之前敏感的市场。　　投资者需要关注三个要点，第一是联储重新拥抱了“数据依赖性”，并不断强调自己将按照新的平均通胀目标框架行事。","content":"<p>美联储大幅上调了对今年的经济预期，小幅上调了对未来两年的预期。（经济预测上调，失业率预测下调，通胀预测上调）<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider2021318/145/w1080h665/20210318/0046-kmkptxe4961757.png\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>预计今年通胀将触达2.4%，但鲍威尔认为通胀的上行是短暂的。新框架下的联储希望看到通胀小幅超调，但仍希望保持稳定的长期通胀预期。</p><p>对银行业监管以及SLR指标问题不予置评，因为未来几天马上就会公布结果。</p><p>对于退出资产购买，鲍威尔给出了晦涩的触发条件，即“substantial further progress toward our goals”。</p><p>调整了隔夜逆回购工具的用量，但似乎市场并不当件事儿（本来就几乎没有用量）。</p><p>Mikko的点评</p><p>综合鲍威尔在发布会上的表态来看，本次会议倾向整体偏鸽派，安抚了之前敏感的市场。</p><p>投资者需要关注三个要点，第一是联储重新拥抱了“数据依赖性”，并不断强调自己将按照新的平均通胀目标框架行事。整场发布会的交流内容的很大一部分都围绕经济预测展开，虽然不少记者仍然抓着点阵图几位官员的点不放，但鲍威尔很快将之解读为FOMC内部少数的不同意见，并强调了FOMC整体仍预期维持利率水平不变，以遏制市场加息预期前移。</p><p>图：有4位官员预计2022年就得开始加息</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider2021318/472/w1080h992/20210318/561d-kmkptxe4961756.png\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"992\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>第二是联储虽然对今年的经济前景比较乐观，但是对于未来两年的经济走向仍然比较保守，从经济预测上也能看出这一点。FOMC成员并不确定今年的复苏力度是否可以延续。这和目前的市场预期是有较大分歧的（动不动就过热、大周期和高通胀），鲍威尔营造出的政策当局与市场参与者的预期差也带来了“鸽派”的效果。</p><p>第三是联储现阶段对市场认知的金融稳定风险嗤之以鼻，联储对金融稳定风险的考量是一个框架，而不是某个单一市场的表现。因此，各种基于单一市场表现“要糖吃”的预期都是市场自身的意淫（鲍叔对记者OT的问题的态度很不屑）。</p><p>发布会亮点</p><p>问题1：有关Taper，点阵图</p><p>鲍叔傻笑！Not yet！</p><p>We also understand that we will want to provide as much advance notice of any potential taper as possible． So when we see that we are on track， when we see actual data coming in that suggests that we are on track to perhaps achieve substantial further progress， then we‘ll say so． And we’ll say so well in advance of any decision to actually taper．</p><p>如果做Taper会很提前跟大家做沟通，不要慌。</p><p>点阵图的前移只是一部分官员有改变</p><p>part of that is wanting to see actual data rather than just a forecast at this point</p><p>问题2：SLR，是否影响了货币政策实施。</p><p>未来几天马上会公布结果，拒绝回答</p><p>问题3：失业预测看什么指标？</p><p>看一系列指标。（建议重读Brainard的演讲）</p><p>强调经济预测（SEP）中并不包含所有联储官员参考的经济指标</p><p>问题4：经济预测的调整问题，对未来经济很乐观，为什么却不暗示加息呢？</p><p>SEP只是大家预测的集合而已，这份SEP忠于我们刚刚调整的框架。</p><p>The state of the economy in two or three years is highly uncertain， and I wouldn‘t want to focus too much on the exact timing of a potential rate increase that far into the future． So that’s how I would think about the SEP．</p><p>未来两三年的经济前景不确定性很大，现在没必要太早考虑加息的确切时间节点。</p><p>问题5：多少的通胀会让你感到舒适？你的目标很晦涩，会不会让市场定价对通胀更低的容忍？</p><p>is talking about inflation is <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE\">one</a> thing． Actually having inflation run above 2% is the real thing．</p><p>谈论通胀是一回事，真实的通胀又是另一回事……</p><p>That‘s what we’d really like to do is to get inflation moderately above 2%． I don‘t want to be too specific about what that means because I think it’s hard to do that． And we haven‘t done it yet．</p><p>鲍叔看上去好像对通胀没什么自信。</p><p>So over the years， we‘ve talked about 2% inflation as a goal， but we haven’t achieved it．</p><p>问题6：群体免疫会导致就业快速复苏，为什么联储的预测还是那么保守？</p><p>There will still be some social distancing．</p><p>让1000万人重返就业岗位不可能在一夜之间完成。</p><p>问题7：10年期国债收益率的问题，其他央行表态担心。OT的问题</p><p>I would be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or by a persistent tightening of financial conditions that threaten the achievement of our goals．</p><p>The tools we have are the tools we have． 对OT的回答挺敷衍的，显然没当回事。</p><p>简单来说就是可以，但没必要。</p><p>问题8：就业市场族裔问题看什么指标？疫苗注射问题</p><p>没啥意思，看我们Brainard的那篇译文就好。</p><p>问题9：财政政策的问题，如何影响长期经济增长？</p><p>对短期：快速就业复苏和保障</p><p>长期：长期投资、生产率、劳工技术</p><p>看起来鲍叔和耶伦和拜登的基建政策看似一条心了……</p><p>问题10：欧元区经济似乎没跟上美国，你担心这种分化吗？会不会拖累美国经济增长？</p><p>复苏确实分化了，就像上次危机后那样。本土目标优先。</p><p>And we conduct policy， of course， here． Our focus is on -- our objectives are domestic ones．</p><p>We monitor developments abroad because we know that those can affect our outcomes．</p><p>记者问得不错，是做过功课的记者……</p><p>鲍叔回答的表态和2017年耶伦和费希尔的论调几乎一模一样，即联储考虑外部风险的前提是外部风险会冲击本土的政策目标。</p><p>问题11：银行业监管问题</p><p>日后再说</p><p>问题12：加息的问题，点阵图有人提前了加息预期，有争论吗？</p><p>加息的标准很明晰——双重使命</p><p>people on the Committee broadly say that uncertainty about the forecast is very high compared to the normal level．</p><p>强调不确定性。</p><p>So you are going to have different perspectives from Committee participants about how fast growth will be， how fast the labor market will heal， how fast inflation will move up， and those things are going to dictate where people write down an estimate of liftoff．</p><p>大家预测不一样。</p><p>It isn‘t meant to actually pin down a time when we might or might not lift off．</p><p>点阵图不是告诉你说那个时点就要加息了。</p><p>That will be very much dependent on economic outcomes， which are highly uncertain．</p><p>再强调不确定性和数据依赖性。</p><p>问题13：财政政策后续</p><p>联储决定不了财政支出，财政政策侧重于长期投资，这是货币政策做不到的，财政政策可以提高潜在产出。</p><p>问题14：金融稳定风险问题</p><p>是一个框架，不是一个市场的表现，记者显然没做过功课，根本不知道联储的金融稳定框架在其金融稳定报告里已经写得很清楚了。</p><p>问题15：SEP的问题，为什么到了合意的紧急状态还不加息？日本化？19年嫌利率太低现在怎么又那么鸽派了？</p><p>I would point out that over the long expansion， longest in U.S． history， ten years and eight months， rates were very low for -- they were at zero for seven years， and then never got above， you know， 2.4%， roughly．</p><p>美国刚经历一轮超长的扩张期，利率维持在0的水平有7年了，即便加了息也没超过2.4%</p><p>During that， we didn‘t see， actually， excess buildup of debt． We didn’t see asset prices form into bubbles that would threaten the progress of the economy． We didn‘t see the things -- we didn’t see a housing bubble． The things that have tended to really hurt an economy and have， in recent history， hurt the U.S． we didn‘t see them build up despite very low rates． Part of that just is that you are in a low-rate environment． You are a much lower rate environment．</p><p>这一段挺有趣的，言下之意低利率根本没有构成任何联储担心的金融稳定问题——比如资产泡沫和债务积压。（可能政府债务反正不用还？）</p><p>The connection between low rates and the kind of financial instability issues is just not as tight as people think it is． That‘s not to say we ignore it． We don’t ignore it． We watch it very carefully． And we think there is a connection． I would say there is， but it‘s not quite so clear． We actually monitor financial conditions very， very broadly and carefully， and we didn’t do that before the global financial crisis 12 years ago． Now we do． And we‘ve also put a lot of time and effort into strengthening the large financial institutions that form the core of our financial system are much stronger， much more resilient．</p><p>话说得更死了，低利率和金融不稳定的关系没人们想的那么紧密。但很快鲍叔又太极了一波说我们现在也在时刻关注不稳定风险的。</p><p>问题16：就业和通胀的关系</p><p>There is a relationship between wage inflation and unemployment． But that has not -- what happens is that when wages move up because unemployment is low， companies have been absorbing that increase into their margins rather than raising prices． And that seems to be a feature of late-cycle behavior．</p><p>问题17：Taper的问题</p><p>What we are saying is substantial further progress toward our goals． We will tell people when we think -- until we say -- until we give a signal， you can assume we are not there yet． And as we approach it， well in advance， well in advance， we will give a signal that， yes， we are on a path to possibly achieve that， to consider tapering． So that‘s how we are planning to handle it． It’s not different， really， from QE3， and I think we‘ve learned what we’ve learned from the experience of these last dozen years is to communicate very carefully， very clearly， well in advance， and then follow through with your communications． In this case， it‘s an outcome-based set of guidance， as our rate guidance is， and it’s going to depend on the progress of the economy． That‘s why it’s not appropriate to start pointing at dates yet．</p><p>别怕Taper，会提前跟你们说！</p><p>问题18：居民部门储蓄释放会影响通胀吗？</p><p>大家出门消费了以后，供给又有瓶颈，就会出现价格小幅提升，但是供给会动态调整。所以是一次性的通胀拉升。</p>","source":"lsy1568282935039","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜，美联储说了哪些要点？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜，美联储说了哪些要点？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-18 08:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexinfo/2021-03-18/doc-ikknscsi7668802.shtml><strong>智堡Wisburg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储大幅上调了对今年的经济预期，小幅上调了对未来两年的预期。（经济预测上调，失业率预测下调，通胀预测上调）预计今年通胀将触达2.4%，但鲍威尔认为通胀的上行是短暂的。新框架下的联储希望看到通胀小幅超调，但仍希望保持稳定的长期通胀预期。对银行业监管以及SLR指标问题不予置评，因为未来几天马上就会公布结果。对于退出资产购买，鲍威尔给出了晦涩的触发条件，即“substantial further ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexinfo/2021-03-18/doc-ikknscsi7668802.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a1de7aced7748879f251930783a3cb1","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DOG":"道指反向ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/forex/forexinfo/2021-03-18/doc-ikknscsi7668802.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2120139461","content_text":"美联储大幅上调了对今年的经济预期，小幅上调了对未来两年的预期。（经济预测上调，失业率预测下调，通胀预测上调）预计今年通胀将触达2.4%，但鲍威尔认为通胀的上行是短暂的。新框架下的联储希望看到通胀小幅超调，但仍希望保持稳定的长期通胀预期。对银行业监管以及SLR指标问题不予置评，因为未来几天马上就会公布结果。对于退出资产购买，鲍威尔给出了晦涩的触发条件，即“substantial further progress toward our goals”。调整了隔夜逆回购工具的用量，但似乎市场并不当件事儿（本来就几乎没有用量）。Mikko的点评综合鲍威尔在发布会上的表态来看，本次会议倾向整体偏鸽派，安抚了之前敏感的市场。投资者需要关注三个要点，第一是联储重新拥抱了“数据依赖性”，并不断强调自己将按照新的平均通胀目标框架行事。整场发布会的交流内容的很大一部分都围绕经济预测展开，虽然不少记者仍然抓着点阵图几位官员的点不放，但鲍威尔很快将之解读为FOMC内部少数的不同意见，并强调了FOMC整体仍预期维持利率水平不变，以遏制市场加息预期前移。图：有4位官员预计2022年就得开始加息第二是联储虽然对今年的经济前景比较乐观，但是对于未来两年的经济走向仍然比较保守，从经济预测上也能看出这一点。FOMC成员并不确定今年的复苏力度是否可以延续。这和目前的市场预期是有较大分歧的（动不动就过热、大周期和高通胀），鲍威尔营造出的政策当局与市场参与者的预期差也带来了“鸽派”的效果。第三是联储现阶段对市场认知的金融稳定风险嗤之以鼻，联储对金融稳定风险的考量是一个框架，而不是某个单一市场的表现。因此，各种基于单一市场表现“要糖吃”的预期都是市场自身的意淫（鲍叔对记者OT的问题的态度很不屑）。发布会亮点问题1：有关Taper，点阵图鲍叔傻笑！Not yet！We also understand that we will want to provide as much advance notice of any potential taper as possible． So when we see that we are on track， when we see actual data coming in that suggests that we are on track to perhaps achieve substantial further progress， then we‘ll say so． And we’ll say so well in advance of any decision to actually taper．如果做Taper会很提前跟大家做沟通，不要慌。点阵图的前移只是一部分官员有改变part of that is wanting to see actual data rather than just a forecast at this point问题2：SLR，是否影响了货币政策实施。未来几天马上会公布结果，拒绝回答问题3：失业预测看什么指标？看一系列指标。（建议重读Brainard的演讲）强调经济预测（SEP）中并不包含所有联储官员参考的经济指标问题4：经济预测的调整问题，对未来经济很乐观，为什么却不暗示加息呢？SEP只是大家预测的集合而已，这份SEP忠于我们刚刚调整的框架。The state of the economy in two or three years is highly uncertain， and I wouldn‘t want to focus too much on the exact timing of a potential rate increase that far into the future． So that’s how I would think about the SEP．未来两三年的经济前景不确定性很大，现在没必要太早考虑加息的确切时间节点。问题5：多少的通胀会让你感到舒适？你的目标很晦涩，会不会让市场定价对通胀更低的容忍？is talking about inflation is one thing． Actually having inflation run above 2% is the real thing．谈论通胀是一回事，真实的通胀又是另一回事……That‘s what we’d really like to do is to get inflation moderately above 2%． I don‘t want to be too specific about what that means because I think it’s hard to do that． And we haven‘t done it yet．鲍叔看上去好像对通胀没什么自信。So over the years， we‘ve talked about 2% inflation as a goal， but we haven’t achieved it．问题6：群体免疫会导致就业快速复苏，为什么联储的预测还是那么保守？There will still be some social distancing．让1000万人重返就业岗位不可能在一夜之间完成。问题7：10年期国债收益率的问题，其他央行表态担心。OT的问题I would be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or by a persistent tightening of financial conditions that threaten the achievement of our goals．The tools we have are the tools we have． 对OT的回答挺敷衍的，显然没当回事。简单来说就是可以，但没必要。问题8：就业市场族裔问题看什么指标？疫苗注射问题没啥意思，看我们Brainard的那篇译文就好。问题9：财政政策的问题，如何影响长期经济增长？对短期：快速就业复苏和保障长期：长期投资、生产率、劳工技术看起来鲍叔和耶伦和拜登的基建政策看似一条心了……问题10：欧元区经济似乎没跟上美国，你担心这种分化吗？会不会拖累美国经济增长？复苏确实分化了，就像上次危机后那样。本土目标优先。And we conduct policy， of course， here． Our focus is on -- our objectives are domestic ones．We monitor developments abroad because we know that those can affect our outcomes．记者问得不错，是做过功课的记者……鲍叔回答的表态和2017年耶伦和费希尔的论调几乎一模一样，即联储考虑外部风险的前提是外部风险会冲击本土的政策目标。问题11：银行业监管问题日后再说问题12：加息的问题，点阵图有人提前了加息预期，有争论吗？加息的标准很明晰——双重使命people on the Committee broadly say that uncertainty about the forecast is very high compared to the normal level．强调不确定性。So you are going to have different perspectives from Committee participants about how fast growth will be， how fast the labor market will heal， how fast inflation will move up， and those things are going to dictate where people write down an estimate of liftoff．大家预测不一样。It isn‘t meant to actually pin down a time when we might or might not lift off．点阵图不是告诉你说那个时点就要加息了。That will be very much dependent on economic outcomes， which are highly uncertain．再强调不确定性和数据依赖性。问题13：财政政策后续联储决定不了财政支出，财政政策侧重于长期投资，这是货币政策做不到的，财政政策可以提高潜在产出。问题14：金融稳定风险问题是一个框架，不是一个市场的表现，记者显然没做过功课，根本不知道联储的金融稳定框架在其金融稳定报告里已经写得很清楚了。问题15：SEP的问题，为什么到了合意的紧急状态还不加息？日本化？19年嫌利率太低现在怎么又那么鸽派了？I would point out that over the long expansion， longest in U.S． history， ten years and eight months， rates were very low for -- they were at zero for seven years， and then never got above， you know， 2.4%， roughly．美国刚经历一轮超长的扩张期，利率维持在0的水平有7年了，即便加了息也没超过2.4%During that， we didn‘t see， actually， excess buildup of debt． We didn’t see asset prices form into bubbles that would threaten the progress of the economy． We didn‘t see the things -- we didn’t see a housing bubble． The things that have tended to really hurt an economy and have， in recent history， hurt the U.S． we didn‘t see them build up despite very low rates． Part of that just is that you are in a low-rate environment． You are a much lower rate environment．这一段挺有趣的，言下之意低利率根本没有构成任何联储担心的金融稳定问题——比如资产泡沫和债务积压。（可能政府债务反正不用还？）The connection between low rates and the kind of financial instability issues is just not as tight as people think it is． That‘s not to say we ignore it． We don’t ignore it． We watch it very carefully． And we think there is a connection． I would say there is， but it‘s not quite so clear． We actually monitor financial conditions very， very broadly and carefully， and we didn’t do that before the global financial crisis 12 years ago． Now we do． And we‘ve also put a lot of time and effort into strengthening the large financial institutions that form the core of our financial system are much stronger， much more resilient．话说得更死了，低利率和金融不稳定的关系没人们想的那么紧密。但很快鲍叔又太极了一波说我们现在也在时刻关注不稳定风险的。问题16：就业和通胀的关系There is a relationship between wage inflation and unemployment． But that has not -- what happens is that when wages move up because unemployment is low， companies have been absorbing that increase into their margins rather than raising prices． And that seems to be a feature of late-cycle behavior．问题17：Taper的问题What we are saying is substantial further progress toward our goals． We will tell people when we think -- until we say -- until we give a signal， you can assume we are not there yet． And as we approach it， well in advance， well in advance， we will give a signal that， yes， we are on a path to possibly achieve that， to consider tapering． So that‘s how we are planning to handle it． It’s not different， really， from QE3， and I think we‘ve learned what we’ve learned from the experience of these last dozen years is to communicate very carefully， very clearly， well in advance， and then follow through with your communications． In this case， it‘s an outcome-based set of guidance， as our rate guidance is， and it’s going to depend on the progress of the economy． That‘s why it’s not appropriate to start pointing at dates yet．别怕Taper，会提前跟你们说！问题18：居民部门储蓄释放会影响通胀吗？大家出门消费了以后，供给又有瓶颈，就会出现价格小幅提升，但是供给会动态调整。所以是一次性的通胀拉升。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2065,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324868182,"gmtCreate":1615983647846,"gmtModify":1703495904273,"author":{"id":"3574844095863997","authorId":"3574844095863997","name":"HHYFHHSF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792480317c9c350a1fb4676d7885126d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574844095863997","authorIdStr":"3574844095863997"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"被套住了，还要等多久","listText":"被套住了，还要等多久","text":"被套住了，还要等多久","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d38665aa8c92cd99ec8b4d943e5f917","width":"1080","height":"3209"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324868182","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2072,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":324860427,"gmtCreate":1615983381469,"gmtModify":1703495899737,"author":{"id":"3574844095863997","authorId":"3574844095863997","name":"HHYFHHSF","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792480317c9c350a1fb4676d7885126d","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574844095863997","authorIdStr":"3574844095863997"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>慢慢来","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>慢慢来","text":"$中芯国际(00981)$慢慢来","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02071c922a34183ee05be34c1a873970","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324860427","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}