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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2022-01-20
  $小米集团-W(01810)$涨比被人少，跌比别人多
  1,684 评论
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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2021-12-08
  [微笑]
  港股2022年会有哪些机遇和挑战？机构预计迎估值修复
  2021年临近尾声，在这一年中，全球金融市场持续动荡，A股不断演绎结构性行情，港股自今年以来出现大面积回调。从全球大类资产的表现来看，今年大宗商品原油、农产品的表现领涨大类资产，在发达市场尤其是美国市场的表现较为强劲，但对于国内，港股与A股之间分化较大，A股创业板指数表现较强，而港股以恒生科技指数为代表的成长股受影响较大，估值与盈利下探幅度较高。
  港股2022年会有哪些机遇和挑战？机构预计迎估值修复
  1,178 评论
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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2021-12-08
  $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$熟悉的港觉，熟悉的味道
  917 评论
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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2021-09-10
  Futu最近在新马一带很火，多用点心吧
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,133 评论
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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2021-08-19
  $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$巨头上市还是有先见之明，股票代号说明一切
  1,118 评论
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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2021-07-29
  $老虎證券(TIGR)$又是熟悉的套路，熟悉的味道
  1,166 评论
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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2021-07-27
  $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$跌破发行价了~价值投资在铁拳下就是渣渣
  1,130 评论
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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2021-07-13
  呵呵
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,460 评论
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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2021-06-07
  教主在上面看着一群小孩玩呢
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,098 评论
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- KT1535KT1535
  ·2021-06-04
  原来不是念甲普甲普
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,202 评论
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11:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"港股2022年会有哪些机遇和挑战？机构预计迎估值修复","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2189651410","media":"银柿财经","summary":"2021年临近尾声，在这一年中，全球金融市场持续动荡，A股不断演绎结构性行情，港股自今年以来出现大面积回调。从全球大类资产的表现来看，今年大宗商品原油、农产品的表现领涨大类资产，在发达市场尤其是美国市场的表现较为强劲，但对于国内，港股与A股之间分化较大，A股创业板指数表现较强，而港股以恒生科技指数为代表的成长股受影响较大，估值与盈利下探幅度较高。","content":"<p>2021年临近尾声，在这一年中，全球金融市场持续动荡，A股不断演绎结构性行情，港股自今年以来出现大面积回调。</p>\n<p>从全球大类资产的表现来看，今年大宗商品原油、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>的表现领涨大类资产，在发达市场尤其是美国市场的表现较为强劲，但对于国内，港股与A股之间分化较大，A股创业板指数表现较强，而港股以恒生科技指数为代表的成长股受影响较大，估值与盈利下探幅度较高。</p>\n<p>财经记者在建银国际2022年投资策略会上获悉，公司研究部董事总经理兼首席策略师赵文利表示，“明年政策的稳定性和可见度预计比今年要好，今年受政策影响比较大的行业，明年在政策的边际影响上应该比今年要弱化许多。”</p>\n<h3>港股2022年会有哪些机遇和挑战？</h3>\n<p>赵文利指出，从环境来讲，随着中央的惠港政策加码，香港未来将更好融入国家发展大局并开启经济发展新阶段，对港股有诸多利好。</p>\n<p>流动性方面，港元的流动性在绝对数量上变动并不会太大，但如果明年加息预期强化，港元的汇率有可能由目前的接近7.80回跌至6.85。</p>\n<p>估值方面，2021年港股遭遇了估值和盈利“双杀”，但目前恒指12倍市盈率的情况下，预测下行空间已十分有限。</p>\n<p>港股在经历过痛苦的一年后，相信明年上半年可见到“曙光”，有望迎来估值修复的窗口，预计全年恒指波动区间在22000~28600点，国指波动区间在7600~10500点，科指波动区间在5800~7500点。</p>\n<h3>2022年全球滞涨的风险有多大？</h3>\n<p>赵文利分析，明年上半年，全球经济类滞涨特征或继续强化。相比之下，中国经济面临的短期经济下行风险或将多于通胀压力，宏观政策上更具自主性，跨周期设计的财政货币政策有适度发力和放松空间。</p>\n<p>从全球经济的滞涨风险来看，尽管通胀水平还未达到上世纪70年代水平，但这一次的通胀上升速度更快，对市场的冲击非常强，预计明年上半年通胀还是大概率向上。</p>\n<p>在经济指标低预期方面，经济意外指数在全球都是不断向下，而经济通胀的意外指数则是不断超预期。从经济本身的运行指标看，短期内增速放缓的压力还是比较大的。同时，通胀结构性推升的压力也比较强。</p>\n<p>从推升通胀的主要影响因素来看，短期看来，疫情影响了全球供应链，造成航运运费增加，劳动力短缺，成本上升，而原油和农产品存在涨价预期。</p>\n<p>赵文利表示，从全球的货币政策和流动性的角度来看，美国紧缩的货币政策速度可能比以往快，但对全球的影响力会逐渐减弱。从美元指数的波动区间来看，2022年，美元汇率在上半年进一步走强的可能性较大，但是到下半年，如果美国经济继续放缓，美国的通胀短时间内有一定回调，美元可能会重新向下走，所以全年的波动期间可能是在92~102之间。</p>\n<h3>中国经济及宏观政策有哪些新看点？</h3>\n<p>相比之下，中国的滞涨风险反而不大，只是在工业品方面体现较多，但PPI向CPI的传导始终是没有之前2008年的几次传导强烈。</p>\n<p>此外，目前猪肉价格整体上处于低位，预计明年下半年才会缓慢回升，但这一次的上涨斜率可能没之前那么快，所以中国在明年上半年面临的通胀压力是非常低的。</p>\n<p>赵文利指出，未来中国将为经济高质量发展营造更好的政策环境，新发展格局下政策能见度不断提升。反垄断市场监管进入常态化阶段，监管政策对有关行业的边际影响将会减弱。</p>\n<p>展望明年，人民币进一步升值空间应该是比较小的，特别是美国开始强化加息的情况下，美元还有进一步上升的可能性，所以预计明年人民币对美元的汇率在6.3~6.4之间，整体来讲波动幅度不是很大。此外在息差收窄之后，流入中国债券市场、股票市场的资金量可能也比以前要少一些。</p>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股2022年会有哪些机遇和挑战？机构预计迎估值修复\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-08 11:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202112082206476032_0.html><strong>银柿财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2021年临近尾声，在这一年中，全球金融市场持续动荡，A股不断演绎结构性行情，港股自今年以来出现大面积回调。\n从全球大类资产的表现来看，今年大宗商品原油、农产品的表现领涨大类资产，在发达市场尤其是美国市场的表现较为强劲，但对于国内，港股与A股之间分化较大，A股创业板指数表现较强，而港股以恒生科技指数为代表的成长股受影响较大，估值与盈利下探幅度较高。\n财经记者在建银国际2022年投资策略会上获悉，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202112082206476032_0.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a106188796ec9abb78b8a3cfbae334a5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202112082206476032_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2189651410","content_text":"2021年临近尾声，在这一年中，全球金融市场持续动荡，A股不断演绎结构性行情，港股自今年以来出现大面积回调。\n从全球大类资产的表现来看，今年大宗商品原油、农产品的表现领涨大类资产，在发达市场尤其是美国市场的表现较为强劲，但对于国内，港股与A股之间分化较大，A股创业板指数表现较强，而港股以恒生科技指数为代表的成长股受影响较大，估值与盈利下探幅度较高。\n财经记者在建银国际2022年投资策略会上获悉，公司研究部董事总经理兼首席策略师赵文利表示，“明年政策的稳定性和可见度预计比今年要好，今年受政策影响比较大的行业，明年在政策的边际影响上应该比今年要弱化许多。”\n港股2022年会有哪些机遇和挑战？\n赵文利指出，从环境来讲，随着中央的惠港政策加码，香港未来将更好融入国家发展大局并开启经济发展新阶段，对港股有诸多利好。\n流动性方面，港元的流动性在绝对数量上变动并不会太大，但如果明年加息预期强化，港元的汇率有可能由目前的接近7.80回跌至6.85。\n估值方面，2021年港股遭遇了估值和盈利“双杀”，但目前恒指12倍市盈率的情况下，预测下行空间已十分有限。\n港股在经历过痛苦的一年后，相信明年上半年可见到“曙光”，有望迎来估值修复的窗口，预计全年恒指波动区间在22000~28600点，国指波动区间在7600~10500点，科指波动区间在5800~7500点。\n2022年全球滞涨的风险有多大？\n赵文利分析，明年上半年，全球经济类滞涨特征或继续强化。相比之下，中国经济面临的短期经济下行风险或将多于通胀压力，宏观政策上更具自主性，跨周期设计的财政货币政策有适度发力和放松空间。\n从全球经济的滞涨风险来看，尽管通胀水平还未达到上世纪70年代水平，但这一次的通胀上升速度更快，对市场的冲击非常强，预计明年上半年通胀还是大概率向上。\n在经济指标低预期方面，经济意外指数在全球都是不断向下，而经济通胀的意外指数则是不断超预期。从经济本身的运行指标看，短期内增速放缓的压力还是比较大的。同时，通胀结构性推升的压力也比较强。\n从推升通胀的主要影响因素来看，短期看来，疫情影响了全球供应链，造成航运运费增加，劳动力短缺，成本上升，而原油和农产品存在涨价预期。\n赵文利表示，从全球的货币政策和流动性的角度来看，美国紧缩的货币政策速度可能比以往快，但对全球的影响力会逐渐减弱。从美元指数的波动区间来看，2022年，美元汇率在上半年进一步走强的可能性较大，但是到下半年，如果美国经济继续放缓，美国的通胀短时间内有一定回调，美元可能会重新向下走，所以全年的波动期间可能是在92~102之间。\n中国经济及宏观政策有哪些新看点？\n相比之下，中国的滞涨风险反而不大，只是在工业品方面体现较多，但PPI向CPI的传导始终是没有之前2008年的几次传导强烈。\n此外，目前猪肉价格整体上处于低位，预计明年下半年才会缓慢回升，但这一次的上涨斜率可能没之前那么快，所以中国在明年上半年面临的通胀压力是非常低的。\n赵文利指出，未来中国将为经济高质量发展营造更好的政策环境，新发展格局下政策能见度不断提升。反垄断市场监管进入常态化阶段，监管政策对有关行业的边际影响将会减弱。\n展望明年，人民币进一步升值空间应该是比较小的，特别是美国开始强化加息的情况下，美元还有进一步上升的可能性，所以预计明年人民币对美元的汇率在6.3~6.4之间，整体来讲波动幅度不是很大。此外在息差收窄之后，流入中国债券市场、股票市场的资金量可能也比以前要少一些。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606744459,"gmtCreate":1638932956941,"gmtModify":1638933039993,"author":{"id":"3574856489046861","authorId":"3574856489046861","name":"KT1535","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4019d4b7036c57a0fd7ca4520ad6e1ea","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574856489046861","authorIdStr":"3574856489046861"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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