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Fanatics
Fanatics
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2021-07-25
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Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>
Summary IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.
Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>
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Fanatics
Fanatics
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2021-07-24
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非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Fanatics
Fanatics
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2021-07-08
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Fanatics
Fanatics
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2021-07-08
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Fanatics
Fanatics
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2021-07-05
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Fanatics
Fanatics
·
2021-07-03
Please like and comment on my post
Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>
As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th
Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>
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Fanatics
Fanatics
·
2021-07-02
Up up
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Fanatics
Fanatics
·
2021-07-02
huat ah
@DGSY：
Wow [开心] [开心]
Wow [开心] [开心]
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Fanatics
Fanatics
·
2021-07-02
Up up
3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>
Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.
3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>
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Fanatics
Fanatics
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2021-07-02
Please like my post and comment
Cloudflare's Moat (Why It's Better Than The Big Boys)<blockquote>Cloudflare的护城河（为什么它比大公司更好）</blockquote>
Summary After my last article, I got a lot of questions about what Cloudflare's moat is. Can it fig
Cloudflare's Moat (Why It's Better Than The Big Boys)<blockquote>Cloudflare的护城河（为什么它比大公司更好）</blockquote>
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like and comment ","listText":"Please like and comment ","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177684719","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li> <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li> <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p> For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall. Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li> <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li> <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p> For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall. Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台专为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174703867,"gmtCreate":1627134699959,"gmtModify":1633767723040,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment ","listText":"Please like and comment ","text":"Please like and 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149677888","repostId":"2149313255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149675444,"gmtCreate":1625726485188,"gmtModify":1633937961098,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment thank you ","listText":"Please like and comment thank you ","text":"Please like and comment thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149675444","repostId":"1128640650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":155656658,"gmtCreate":1625416560874,"gmtModify":1633940845580,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment please!","listText":"Please like and comment please!","text":"Please like and comment please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/155656658","repostId":"1160702483","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1678,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152261983,"gmtCreate":1625297918742,"gmtModify":1633941614476,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment on my post ","listText":"Please like and comment on my post ","text":"Please like and comment on my post","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152261983","repostId":"1188153141","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188153141","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625276221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188153141?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188153141","media":"MoneyWise","summary":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for th","content":"<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1621813427262","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Suze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSuze Orman worries about a market crash — here's what you should do<blockquote>Suze Orman担心市场崩盘——以下是您应该做的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MoneyWise</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市继续创下纪录，新冠肺炎的影响继续给经济带来问题。</blockquote></p><p> That clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.</p><p><blockquote>这场冲突让投资专家感到担忧，其中包括苏茜·欧曼(Suze Orman)，她甚至表示，她现在正在为不可避免的市场崩盘做准备。</blockquote></p><p> And a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特推广的一项著名指标——巴菲特指标——表明奥曼可能有所发现。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.</p><p><blockquote>以下解释了这种担忧的来源，以及即使市场下跌，您也可以使用一些技巧来保持投资组合的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What does Suze Orman think?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苏西·奥曼是怎么想的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8dc3ad363faad96bc575a22235562d\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Mediapunch/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>Mediapunch/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Suze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.</p><p><blockquote>几十年来，Suze Orman一直热切关注市场。她知道起起落落是意料之中的，但她所看到的像游戏驿站这样的投资时尚所发生的事情让她感到担忧。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”</p><p><blockquote>“我不喜欢现在市场上发生的事情，”奥曼在CNBC的视频中表示。“经济一直很糟糕，但股市一直在上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> While investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然现在投资就像使用智能手机应用程序一样容易，但奥曼担心我们能从这些历史高点走向何方。</blockquote></p><p> And even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.</p><p><blockquote>即使刺激支票仍在发放，房地产市场去年也打破了自己的记录，奥曼仍担心冠状病毒会带来什么——特别是在新变种不断出现的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，她觉得距离上次崩盘已经太久了，不能再保持这么高的高度了。</blockquote></p><p> “This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.</p><p><blockquote>“这让我又想起了2000年，”奥曼说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett Indicator</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特指标</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44ada32ecadcc4581fed208f4f4e4d53\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Larry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>拉里·W·史密斯/EPA/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> One metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特经常用来评估市场的一项指标，以他的名字命名，已经亮起红灯足够长的时间，以至于市场观察人士开始怀疑这是否是一个过时的工具。</blockquote></p><p> But the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.</p><p><blockquote>但衡量股市总价值与美国经济产出比率的巴菲特指标继续攀升至前所未有的水平。</blockquote></p><p> And those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士想知道这是否是我们即将看到严重下跌的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> How to prepare for a crash<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ad912a6b4611d9e39b46d2851c78c9e\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Freedomz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>如何为崩溃做好准备Freedomz/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Orman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.</p><p><blockquote>Orman提出了三个建立简单投资策略的建议，以帮助您成功应对市场的任何急转弯。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Buy low</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.低吸</b></blockquote></p><p> Part of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼对游戏驿站等模因股票的狂热感到如此不安的部分原因是，它完全违背了普通投资者的利益。</blockquote></p><p> “All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”</p><p><blockquote>“你们所有人的头都被拧到了后面，”她说。“你想要的只是这些市场不断上涨。这对你有什么好处？”</blockquote></p><p> She points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，大多数人唯一的额外资金用于投资401(k)或IRA计划的退休生活。</blockquote></p><p> Because you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.</p><p><blockquote>因为你可能几十年内都不打算碰这笔钱，所以最好的长期策略是低吸。这样，你的美元现在将走得更远，为未来20年、30年或40年留下足够的增长空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Invest on a schedule</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.按计划投资</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e4102f8a6d5002090743b1cbded32ef9\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">katjen / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>卡珍/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> While she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.</p><p><blockquote>虽然她更喜欢低价买入，但奥曼不建议你在市场上涨时完全停止投资。</blockquote></p><p> She wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.</p><p><blockquote>她希望普通投资者不要陷入市场每天的涨跌之中。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，现在为经济低迷欢呼可能是您获得更大份额利润丰厚的投资的最佳选择——就像一些幸运的投资者在2007年和2008年所做的那样。</blockquote></p><p> “When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”</p><p><blockquote>“当市场下跌、下跌、下跌时，你可以免费购买东西，”奥曼说。“现在看看15年后的它们。”</blockquote></p><p> She suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.</p><p><blockquote>她建议你建立一个平均成本策略，这意味着无论市场波动如何，你都要定期等量投资。</blockquote></p><p> This kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.</p><p><blockquote>这种方法很容易用目前可供DIY投资者使用的许多投资应用程序中的任何一个来实施。</blockquote></p><p> There are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.</p><p><blockquote>甚至有些应用程序会通过将您的借记卡和信用卡购买的金额四舍五入到最接近的美元来自动投资您的零钱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Diversify with fractional shares</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.通过零碎股份实现多元化</b></blockquote></p><p> To help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了帮助应对市场特定角落的下跌，奥曼建议您分散投资——通过投资多种不同类型的资产和经济部门来平衡您的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Orman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼特别推荐零股投资。这种方法允许你购买一家知名公司的一部分股份，否则你将买不起。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> With the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.</p><p><blockquote>在流行的股票交易工具的帮助下，任何预算的人都可以负担得起碎股策略。</blockquote></p><p> “The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”</p><p><blockquote>“你越早开始，你拥有的钱就越多，”奥曼说。“只是不要停下来，当这些市场下跌时，你应该很高兴，因为你的美元找到了更多的份额。”</blockquote></p><p> “And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”</p><p><blockquote>“你拥有的股票越多，20年、40年、50年后你拥有的钱就越多。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else you can do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你还能做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e79c6fd1f8fa6e3a7c3a6c94f1e14b5\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"293\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">goodluz / Shutterstock</p><p><blockquote>古德卢兹/Shutterstock</blockquote></p><p> Whether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.</p><p><blockquote>奥曼在CNBC视频中表示，无论大崩盘是否即将来临，距离退休还有几十年的投资者都可以利用这一点。</blockquote></p><p> First, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.</p><p><blockquote>第一，做最坏的打算，抱最好的希望。自从疫情爆发以来，奥曼现在建议每个人都有一个应急基金，可以支付他们一整年的费用。</blockquote></p><p> Then, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.</p><p><blockquote>然后，为了让自己过上舒适的退休生活，她建议您选择Roth账户，无论是401(k)还是IRA。</blockquote></p><p> That will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.</p><p><blockquote>这将帮助您在从退休账户中提取资金时避免纳税，因为您对罗斯账户的供款是税后进行的。另一方面，传统IRA在您缴款时无需纳税，因此您最终会稍后付款。</blockquote></p><p> If you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.</p><p><blockquote>如果您发现需要更多指导，与专业财务顾问合作可以帮助您指出正确的方向，以便您可以自信地度过任何市场波动。</blockquote></p><p> While everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.</p><p><blockquote>当其他人都在偏离路线或矫枉过正时，你将牢牢地坐在驾驶座上，计划好你的晚年。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html\">MoneyWise</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/suze-orman-worries-market-crash-220000108.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188153141","content_text":"As stock markets continue setting records, fallout from COVID-19 continues to create problems for the economy.\nThat clash has worried investing experts, including Suze Orman, who's gone so far as to say she’s now preparing for an inevitable market crash.\nAnd a famous measurement popularized by Warren Buffett — known as the Buffett Indicator — shows Orman might be onto something.\nHere’s an explanation of where the concern is coming from and some techniques you can use tokeep your investment portfolio growingeven if the market goes south.\nWhat does Suze Orman think?\nMediapunch/Shutterstock\nSuze Orman has avidly watched the market for decades. She knows ups and downs are to be expected, but what she’s seeing happen with investment fads like GameStop has her concerned.\n“I don’t like what I see happening in the market right now,” Orman said in a video for CNBC. “The economy has been horrible, but the stock market has been going.”\nWhile investing is as easy now asusing a smartphone app, Orman is concerned about where we can go from these record highs.\nAnd even with stimulus checks, which are still going out, and the real estate market breaking its own records last year, Orman worries about what will come with the coronavirus — especially as new variants continue to pop up.\nWhat's more, she feels it’s just been too long since the last crash to stay this high much longer.\n“This reminds me of 2000 all over again,” Orman says.\nThe Buffett Indicator\nLarry W Smith/EPA/Shutterstock\nOne metric Warren Buffett uses to assess the market so regularly that it’s been named after him has been flashing red for long enough that market watchers are starting to wonder if it’s an outdated tool.\nBut the Buffett Indicator, a measurement of the ratio of the stock market’s total value against U.S. economic output, continues to climb to previously unseen levels.\nAnd those in the know are wondering if it's a sign that we’re about to see a hard fall.\nHow to prepare for a crashFreedomz / Shutterstock\nOrman has three recommendations for setting up a simple investment strategy to help you successfully navigate any sharp turns in the market.\n1. Buy low\nPart of what upsets Orman so much about the furor over meme stocks like GameStop is it goes completely against the average investor’s interests.\n“All of you have your heads screwed on backwards,” she says. “All you want is for these markets to go up and up and up. What good is that going to do you?”\nShe points out the only extra money most people have goes towardinvesting for retirementin their 401(k) or IRA plans.\nBecause you probably don’t plan to touch that money for decades, the best long-term strategy is to buy low. That way, your dollar will go much further now, leaving plenty of room for growth over the next 20, 30 or 40 years.\n2. Invest on a schedule\nkatjen / Shutterstock\nWhile she prefers to buy low, Orman doesn’t recommend you stop investing completely when the market goes up.\nShe wants casual investors to not get caught up in the daily ups and downs of the market.\nIn fact, cheering for downturns now may be your best bet at getting a larger piece of very profitable investments — like some lucky investors were able to do back in 2007 and 2008.\n“When the market went down, down, down you could buy things at nothing,” says Orman. “And now look at them 15 years later.”\nShe suggests you set up a dollar-cost averaging strategy, which means you invest your money in equal portions at regular intervals, regardless of the market’s fluctuations.\nThis kind of approach is easy to implement with any of the many investing apps currently available to DIY investors.\nThere are even apps that willautomatically invest your spare changeby rounding up your debit and credit card purchases to the nearest dollar.\n3. Diversify with fractional shares\nTo help weather dips in specific corners of the market, Orman suggests you diversify your investments — balance your portfolio with investments in many different types of assets and sectors of the economy.\nOrman particularly recommends fractional-share investing. This approach allows you to buy a slice of a share for a big-name company that you otherwise wouldn’t be able to afford.\nWith the help of apopular stock-trading tool, anyone at any budget can afford the fractional share strategy.\n“The sooner you begin, the more money you will have,” says Orman. “Just don’t stop, and when these markets go down, you should be so happy because your dollars find more shares.”\n“And the more shares you have, the more money you’ll have 20, 40, 50 years from now.”\nWhat else you can do\ngoodluz / Shutterstock\nWhether or not a big crash is around the corner, investors who are still decades out from retirement can make that work for them, Orman said in theCNBC video.\nFirst, prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Since the onset of the pandemic, Orman now recommends everyone have an emergency fund that can cover their expenses for a full year.\nThen, to set yourself up fora comfortable retirement, she suggests you opt for a Roth account, whether that’s a 401(k) or IRA.\nThat will help you avoid paying tax when you take money out of your retirement account because your contributions to a Roth account are made after tax. Traditional IRAs, on the other hand, aren’t taxed when you make contributions, so you’ll end up paying later.\nIf you find you need a little more guidance, working with aprofessional financial adviser, can help point you in the right direction so you can confidently ride out any market volatility.\nWhile everyone else is veering off course or overcorrecting, you’ll be firmly in the driver’s seat with your sunset years planned for.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2909,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158409270,"gmtCreate":1625161237090,"gmtModify":1633943001327,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158409270","repostId":"1165885611","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158409899,"gmtCreate":1625161201011,"gmtModify":1633943001447,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"huat ah","listText":"huat ah","text":"huat ah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158409899","repostId":"128756873","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":128756873,"gmtCreate":1624533518892,"gmtModify":1634004788575,"author":{"id":"3575428816252305","authorId":"3575428816252305","name":"DGSY","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47311563f56abb27db85f8d03fdc2cad","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575428816252305","authorIdStr":"3575428816252305"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow [开心] [开心] ","listText":"Wow [开心] [开心] ","text":"Wow [开心] [开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcae49e80b23f2fd0faa421f58ea15e5","width":"1440","height":"3996"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128756873","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158409048,"gmtCreate":1625161164584,"gmtModify":1633943001889,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up","listText":"Up up","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158409048","repostId":"1199212665","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199212665","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625146084,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199212665?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 21:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199212665","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Get ready to buy Snowflake and two other hot tech stocks if this frothy market collapses.","content":"<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这次抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，保持涨幅，甚至上涨。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于那些不想为合适的公司支付错误价格的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and <b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我列出了一份昂贵科技股的购物清单，这些股票是我在下一次市场崩盘时急切购买的。让我们来看看其中三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>Twilio</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>CrowdStrike</b>（纳斯达克：CRWD）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> and <b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake是2020年最热门的科技IPO之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>和<b>salesforce.com</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入第三方数据可视化应用程序。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，使大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake的客户数量在2021财年（截至今年1月）跃升73%至4,139家，其中包括186家财富500强公司。其收入飙升124%，达到5.92亿美元，净保留率（衡量每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在2022年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长110%至2.289亿美元，客户数量增长67%至4,532人，净保留率达到168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但Snowflake尚未盈利。其GAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大至2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻了一倍多</i>2022年第一季度从9360万美元增至2.032亿美元。在非公认会计准则的基础上，它也是无利可图的，这不包括其股票薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Snowflake今年的收入将增长88%，亏损将收窄。然而，其股价仍是今年销售额的65倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长。但如果雪花在崩盘中被切成两半，我会考虑建立一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Twilio</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps <b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and <b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>的乘客联系他们的司机，并且<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，Twilio的收入增长了55%，达到17.6亿美元。其净扩张率与Snowflake的净留存率相当，达到了137%。2021年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长62%至5.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按GAAP计算，Twilio仍未盈利，但其非GAAP净利润在2020年增长了62%，达到3590万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%至960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年收入将增长44%，但由于投资增加和A2P（应用到个人）费用上涨，其非GAAP收益将再次出现亏损，现在每当应用程序访问短信网络时，运营商都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格是今年销售额近30倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持其服务，这些设备的维护成本可能很高，并且随着组织的扩展难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过提供端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性的潜力。其2021财年（截至今年1月）收入增长82%至8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%至9,896人，净留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike也在2021年实现了非GAAP盈利，净利润为6260万美元。2022年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润同比增长五倍多，达到2330万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但CrowdStrike的市盈率仍约为350倍，是今年销售额的40多倍。因此，这是另一只我不会买的股票，除非市场崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Expensive Tech Stocks to Buy in the Next Market Crash<blockquote>下一次市场崩盘时值得买入的3只昂贵科技股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 21:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心债券收益率上升、通货膨胀以及受益于疫情的公司增长放缓，许多高增长科技股在过去几个月出现了价格回调。</blockquote></p><p> That sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.</p><p><blockquote>这次抛售创造了一些买入机会，但该行业一些价格较高的股票只是小幅回调，保持涨幅，甚至上涨。这种相对实力令人钦佩，但对于那些不想为合适的公司支付错误价格的投资者来说，这有点令人沮丧。</blockquote></p><p> That's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:<b>Snowflake</b>(NYSE:SNOW),<b>Twilio</b>(NYSE:TWLO), and <b>CrowdStrike</b>(NASDAQ:CRWD).</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么我列出了一份昂贵科技股的购物清单，这些股票是我在下一次市场崩盘时急切购买的。让我们来看看其中三家公司：<b>雪花</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：SNOW），<b>Twilio</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：TWLO），以及<b>CrowdStrike</b>（纳斯达克：CRWD）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fde232ce39d9cd52a01fd6ec018cae53\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Snowflake</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.雪花</b></blockquote></p><p> Snowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from <b>Berkshire Hathaway</b> and <b>salesforce.com</b>.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake是2020年最热门的科技IPO之一，这要归功于其令人瞠目结舌的增长率和来自<b>伯克希尔哈撒韦</b>和<b>salesforce.com</b>.</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake基于云的数据仓库将公司的所有数据拉到一个平台上，然后可以将其输入第三方数据可视化应用程序。它的服务打破了不同部门和计算平台之间的孤岛，使大公司更容易做出数据驱动的决策。</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake的客户数量在2021财年（截至今年1月）跃升73%至4,139家，其中包括186家财富500强公司。其收入飙升124%，达到5.92亿美元，净保留率（衡量每个现有客户的收入同比增长）达到165%。</blockquote></p><p> That growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.</p><p><blockquote>这种增长在2022年第一季度仍在继续。其收入同比增长110%至2.289亿美元，客户数量增长67%至4,532人，净保留率达到168%。</blockquote></p><p> But Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, and<i>more than doubled</i>from $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.</p><p><blockquote>但Snowflake尚未盈利。其GAAP净亏损从2020财年的3.485亿美元扩大至2021财年的5.391亿美元，并且<i>翻了一倍多</i>2022年第一季度从9360万美元增至2.032亿美元。在非公认会计准则的基础上，它也是无利可图的，这不包括其股票薪酬费用。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计Snowflake今年的收入将增长88%，亏损将收窄。然而，其股价仍是今年销售额的65倍，这表明该股仍有太多增长。但如果雪花在崩盘中被切成两半，我会考虑建立一个大头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Twilio</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.Twilio</b></blockquote></p><p> Twilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps <b>Lyft</b>'s passengers contact their drivers, and <b>Airbnb</b>'s guests reach their hosts.</p><p><blockquote>Twilio的云平台在应用程序中处理短信、评级和视频。例如，它有助于<b>Lyft</b>的乘客联系他们的司机，并且<b>爱彼迎</b>的客人到达他们的主人。</blockquote></p><p> In the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.</p><p><blockquote>过去，开发人员从头开始构建这些工具，这通常很耗时、有缺陷且难以扩展。然而，开发人员现在只需在他们的应用程序中添加几行代码，就可以将这些功能外包给Twilio的云服务。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，Twilio的收入增长了55%，达到17.6亿美元。其净扩张率与Snowflake的净留存率相当，达到了137%。2021年第一季度，由于整合了最近收购的客户数据公司部门，其收入同比增长62%至5.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Twilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.</p><p><blockquote>按GAAP计算，Twilio仍未盈利，但其非GAAP净利润在2020年增长了62%，达到3590万美元。2021年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润再增长15%至960万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计其今年收入将增长44%，但由于投资增加和A2P（应用到个人）费用上涨，其非GAAP收益将再次出现亏损，现在每当应用程序访问短信网络时，运营商都会收取这些费用。</blockquote></p><p> That near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.</p><p><blockquote>对于一只交易价格是今年销售额近30倍的股票来说，近期前景看起来并不乐观。不过，我仍然认为Twilio具有巨大的增长潜力，我肯定会以较低的价格购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. CrowdStrike</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.CrowdStrike</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike是一家网络安全公司，在一个主要方面不同于行业同行。大多数网络安全公司安装现场设备来支持其服务，这些设备的维护成本可能很高，并且随着组织的扩展难以扩展。CrowdStrike通过提供端到端安全平台作为基于云的服务来消除这些设备。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike的增长清楚地反映了其颠覆性的潜力。其2021财年（截至今年1月）收入增长82%至8.744亿美元，订阅客户数量增长82%至9,896人，净留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p> In the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.</p><p><blockquote>2022财年第一季度，其收入同比增长70%至3.028亿美元，用户群同比增长82%至11,420人，留存率保持在120%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike也在2021年实现了非GAAP盈利，净利润为6260万美元。2022年第一季度，其非GAAP净利润同比增长五倍多，达到2330万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Those numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.</p><p><blockquote>这些数字令人印象深刻，但CrowdStrike的市盈率仍约为350倍，是今年销售额的40多倍。因此，这是另一只我不会买的股票，除非市场崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.","SNOW":"Snowflake","TWLO":"Twilio Inc"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/01/expensive-tech-stocks-to-buy-in-next-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199212665","content_text":"Many high-growth tech stocks have seen price pullbacks over the past few months, due to concerns about higher bond yields, inflation, and decelerating growth for companies that benefited from the pandemic.\nThat sell-off created some buying opportunities -- but some of the sector's pricier names merely pulled back slightly, held onto their gains, or even rallied. That relative strength is admirable, but it's a bit frustrating for investors who don't want to pay the wrong price for the right company.\nThat's why I'm making a shopping list of expensive tech stocks which I'd eagerly buy during the next market crash. Let's take a look at three of those companies:Snowflake(NYSE:SNOW),Twilio(NYSE:TWLO), and CrowdStrike(NASDAQ:CRWD).\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Snowflake\nSnowflake was one of the hottest tech IPOs of 2020, thanks to its jaw-dropping growth rates and big investments from Berkshire Hathaway and salesforce.com.\nSnowflake'scloud-baseddata warehouse pulls all of a company's data onto a single platform, where it can then be fed into third-party data visualization apps. Its service breaks down the silos between different departments and computing platforms, which makes it easier for large companies to make data-driven decisions.\nSnowflake's number of customers jumped 73% to 4,139 in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), including 186 of the Fortune 500 companies. Its revenue surged 124% to $592 million, as its net retention rate -- which gauges its year-over-year revenue growth per existing customer -- hit 165%.\nThat growth continued in the first quarter of 2022. Its revenue rose 110% year over year to $228.9 million, its number of customers increased 67% to 4,532, and it achieved a net retention rate of 168%.\nBut Snowflake isn't profitable yet. ItsGAAPnet loss widened from $348.5 million in fiscal 2020 to $539.1 million in fiscal 2021, andmore than doubledfrom $93.6 million to $203.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. It's also unprofitable on a non-GAAP basis, which excludes its stock-based compensation expenses.\nAnalysts expect Snowflake's revenue to rise 88% this year, with a narrower loss. However, its stock still trades at 65 times this year's sales -- which indicates there's still far too much growth baked into the stock. But if Snowflake gets cut in half in a crash, I'd considerstarting a big position.\n2. Twilio\nTwilio's cloud platform processes text messages, calls, and videos within apps. For example, it helps Lyft's passengers contact their drivers, and Airbnb's guests reach their hosts.\nIn the past, developers built those tools from scratch, which was generally time-consuming, buggy, and difficult to scale. However, developers can now outsource those features to Twilio's cloud service by simply adding a few lines of code to their apps.\nTwilio's revenue rose 55% to $1.76 billion in 2020. Its net expansion rate, which is comparable to Snowflake's net retention rate, reached 137%. In the first quarter of 2021, its revenue jumped 62% year over year to $590 million as it integrated its recent purchase of the customer data firm Segment.\nTwilio remains unprofitable on a GAAP basis, but its non-GAAP net income rose 62% to $35.9 million in 2020. In the first quarter of 2021, its non-GAAP net income rose another 15% to $9.6 million.\nAnalysts expect its revenue to rise 44% this year, but for its non-GAAP earnings to dip into the red again amid higher investments and rising A2P (application-to-person) fees, which are now charged by carriers whenever an app accesses an SMS network.\nThat near-term outlook doesn't look great for a stock that trades at nearly 30 times this year's sales. However, I still think Twilio has great growth potential, and I'd definitely buy its stock at a lower price.\n3. CrowdStrike\nCrowdStrike is a cybersecurity company that differs from its industry peers in one major way. Most cybersecurity companies install on-site appliances to support their services, which can be expensive to maintain and difficult to scale as an organization expands. CrowdStrike eliminates those appliances by offering its end-to-end security platform as a cloud-based service.\nCrowdStrike's growth clearly reflects its disruptive potential. Its revenue rose 82% to $874.4 million in fiscal 2021 (which ended this January), its number of subscription customers increased 82% to 9,896, and its net retention rate stayed above 120%.\nIn the first quarter of fiscal 2022, its revenue rose 70% year over year to $302.8 million, its subscriber base expanded 82% year over year to 11,420, and it kept its retention rate above 120%.\nCrowdStrike also turned profitable on a non-GAAP basis in 2021, with a net profit of $62.6 million. Its non-GAAP net income rose more than fivefold year over year to $23.3 million in the first quarter of 2022.\nThose numbers are impressive, but CrowdStrike still trades at about 350 times forward earnings and more than 40 times this year's sales. Therefore, this is another stock I won't buy unless the market crashes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRWD":0.9,"TWLO":0.9,"SNOW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2563,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158564455,"gmtCreate":1625157053777,"gmtModify":1633943028314,"author":{"id":"3575013490492928","authorId":"3575013490492928","name":"Fanatics","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/070e08d0698113575758a8b6aaf8338c","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575013490492928","authorIdStr":"3575013490492928"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like my post and comment","listText":"Please like my post and comment","text":"Please like my post and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158564455","repostId":"1148587912","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148587912","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625151495,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148587912?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 22:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare's Moat (Why It's Better Than The Big Boys)<blockquote>Cloudflare的护城河（为什么它比大公司更好）</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148587912","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAfter my last article, I got a lot of questions about what Cloudflare's moat is. Can it fig","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>After my last article, I got a lot of questions about what Cloudflare's moat is. Can it fight off the giants in this space: Amazon, Microsoft, Akamai?</li> <li>Cloudflare has a Software-Defined-Networking or SDN, which gives it a much more flexible and programmable network.</li> <li>With the Internet of Things about to explode, a huge percentage of data will never leave the edge cloud.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9052b8744f400e2a1fcd5e28c02a9fd0\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Anthony Harvey/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在我的上一篇文章之后，我收到了很多关于Cloudflare护城河是什么的问题。它能打败这个领域的巨头：亚马逊、微软、Akamai吗？</li><li>Cloudflare有一个软件定义的网络或SDN，这为它提供了一个更加灵活和可编程的网络。</li><li>随着物联网即将爆发，很大一部分数据将永远不会离开边缘云。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安东尼·哈维/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Almost two months ago,I published an article about Cloudflare (NET), in which I argued that Cloudflare was worth its premium price. The stock is up about 30% since then but for me, as a long-term investor, the story hasn't changed, so that's not the reason why I write this article.</p><p><blockquote>大约两个月前，我发表了一篇关于Cloudflare(NET)的文章，其中我认为Cloudflare值得其溢价。自那以后，该股上涨了约30%，但对我来说，作为一名长期投资者，情况并没有改变，所以这不是我写这篇文章的原因。</blockquote></p><p> After that article, I got a lot of questions about the moat of Cloudflare and a lot of people seem to think that Cloudflare can be crushed by the big players in this field. And of course, with giants like Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Akamai (AKAM) in this industry, I understand the question.</p><p><blockquote>在那篇文章之后，我收到了很多关于Cloudflare护城河的问题，很多人似乎认为Cloudflare可以被该领域的大玩家压垮。当然，这个行业有亚马逊（AMZN）、谷歌（GOOG）（GOOGL）、微软（MSFT）和Akamai（AKAM）等巨头，我理解这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> But Cloudflare is much more than just a CDN network. After 25 years, CDN has become a commodity. Cloudflare has something special to protect it from the giants in this space, though. Of course, they will be there and they will take a certain percentage of the market, together probably a majority even, but that doesn't matter with such a huge market. After all, for the edge cloud, we are about where we were more than a decade ago for the core cloud (AWS, Azure...) and that means very early. The potential is huge.</p><p><blockquote>但是Cloudflare不仅仅是一个CDN网络。25年后，CDN已经成为一种商品。不过，Cloudflare有一些特殊的东西可以保护它免受这个领域巨头的攻击。当然，他们会在那里，他们会占据一定比例的市场，甚至可能是大多数，但对于如此巨大的市场来说，这并不重要。毕竟，对于边缘云来说，我们大约是十多年前核心云（AWS、Azure...）这意味着很早。潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Before we start, just a quick thought. I think that the term 'moat' has been overused in recent years. A moat is supposed to be impenetrable and there are only very few companies who have that. Mostly they are the biggest companies in our world. So, you could argue that the title should have been Cloudflare's competitive advantage. The reason why I still used the word moat is that most people use that term.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始之前，先想一想。我认为“护城河”这个词近年来被过度使用了。护城河应该是坚不可摧的，但只有极少数公司拥有这一点。大多数情况下，他们是我们世界上最大的公司。因此，你可能会说这个头衔应该是Cloudflare的竞争优势。我仍然使用护城河这个词的原因是大多数人都使用这个词。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is developer-friendly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare对开发人员友好</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several CDN providers. Akamai is the big pure legacy player and 1,500 POPs (points-of-presence) and approximately 300,000 servers in 136 countries worldwide. If you know that Cloudflare has about 200 POPs, you could think that there is no way that it can fight Akamai.</p><p><blockquote>有几个CDN提供商。Akamai是一家大型纯传统企业，在全球136个国家/地区拥有1,500个POP（接入点）和大约300,000台服务器。如果您知道Cloudflare有大约200个POP，您可能会认为它不可能与Akamai竞争。</blockquote></p><p> But POPs and CDN in general are commodities, cutting-edge technology and that's where Cloudflare is in a league of its own.</p><p><blockquote>但总的来说，POPs和CDN都是商品、尖端技术，这就是Cloudflare独树一帜的地方。</blockquote></p><p> The difference between Cloudflare and the rest of the CDNs is that Cloudflare is really developer-focused. I know, you hear that a lot, but I will try to explain what that means in the context of Cloudflare and CDNs. We have to become a bit technical but I will try to simplify without dumbing it down.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare与其他CDN的区别在于Cloudflare真正以开发人员为中心。我知道，您经常听到这句话，但我将尝试在Cloudflare和CDN的上下文中解释这意味着什么。我们必须变得有点技术性，但我会尽量简化而不降低它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SDN</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SDN</b></blockquote></p><p> First, you have to understand what SDN means. It stands for software-defined networking and it is a way in which you can manage your network. SDN improves both the network performance as the monitoring.</p><p><blockquote>首先，你要明白SDN是什么意思。它代表软件定义的网络，是一种管理网络的方式。SDN提高了网络性能和监控能力。</blockquote></p><p> An SDN architecture separates the network control from the hardware infrastructure. In that way, it's easier to control the whole network. This differs from the older network structure, which is hierarchical. This image shows the difference between the SDN and hierarchical structure.</p><p><blockquote>SDN架构将网络控制与硬件基础设施分开。那样的话，更容易控制整个网络。这与旧的网络结构不同，旧的网络结构是分层的。此图显示了SDN和分层结构之间的区别。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/420d12a5a54ff415c3572ebeedb84abe\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the forward layer (which handles the traffic) and the control layers are separated in an SDN structure.</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，转发层（处理流量）和控制层在SDN结构中是分开的。</blockquote></p><p> Because there's so much more data being used in our society, because networks become more and more complex, and because we all expect networks to perform better, a hierarchical structure is becoming more and more something of the past.</p><p><blockquote>因为在我们的社会中有如此多的数据被使用，因为网络变得越来越复杂，因为我们都期望网络表现得更好，分层结构越来越成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> SDNs give much more flexibility and control because you can adapt centrally. This means that the whole network becomes directly programmable, instead of all the separate parts individually. This saves a lot of time, of course, and makes sure that updates can be more easily deployed. It makes SDN somewhat similar to cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>SDN提供了更大的灵活性和控制力，因为您可以集中适应。这意味着整个网络变得可直接编程，而不是所有单独的部分单独编程。当然，这节省了大量时间，并确保更新可以更容易地部署。它使得SDN有些类似于云计算。</blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare itself gives a great analogy between SDN and hierarchical networking:</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare本身对SDN和分层网络进行了很好的类比：</blockquote></p><p> Think of the difference between typing an essay on a typewriter and typing it in a word processing application: Any changes to the typewritten essay mean it has to be retyped, while a word processing document can be revised endlessly. Similarly, SDN technology lets admins reconfigure their networks from a computer, instead of continually plugging and unplugging cables and devices. <b>Edge computing</b></p><p><blockquote>想想在打字机上打字和在文字处理应用程序中打字之间的区别：对打字文章的任何更改都意味着必须重新打字，而文字处理文档可以无休止地修改。同样，SDN技术允许管理员从计算机重新配置他们的网络，而不是不断地插拔电缆和设备。<b>边缘计算</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference between Cloudflare and the competition is in how it has constructed the architecture of its POPs (points of presence, the servers that are distributed around the world) and especially the networks in between those POPs. Cloudflare has a structure that makes the network between its POPs programmable too, so-called edge computing.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare与竞争对手的区别在于它如何构建其POP（存在点，分布在世界各地的服务器）的架构，尤其是这些POP之间的网络。Cloudflare的结构使其POP之间的网络也可编程，即所谓的边缘计算。</blockquote></p><p> Edge computing is especially important for the Internet of Things or IoT. These devices generate a huge amount of data. Cloud computing as we know it works great but not for the IoT data flood. IoT devices are easily hackable for example, but there are also performance problems.</p><p><blockquote>边缘计算对于物联网或IoT尤为重要。这些设备会产生大量的数据。我们所知的云计算非常有效，但不适用于物联网数据洪流。例如，物联网设备很容易被黑客攻击，但也存在性能问题。</blockquote></p><p> Besides those problems, what do you do with the huge amount of data? One solution is to store it in huge data lakes and that's why there is so much excitement around a company like Snowflake (SNOW) for example. But edge computing is better for IoT solutions. It can handle and store the data on the device that generated it and let them interact:</p><p><blockquote>除了那些问题，你如何处理海量的数据？一种解决方案是将其存储在巨大的数据湖中，这就是为什么像Snowflake（SNOW）这样的公司如此令人兴奋。但边缘计算更适合物联网解决方案。它可以在生成数据的设备上处理和存储数据，并让它们进行交互：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125a664a9d2e846b78709093a829ffb9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare may have fewer POPs but they are built from the ground up as SDN architectures and they are much more powerful, which gives it the flexibility and customizability to have really powerful edge computing.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的POP可能较少，但它们是作为SDN架构从头开始构建的，功能更加强大，这使其具有灵活性和可定制性，可以拥有真正强大的边缘计算。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition from the big boys</b></p><p><blockquote><b>来自大男孩的竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> For the legacy players, Akamai in the first place, but also Amazon, Google, and Microsoft's it's not simple to change their whole infrastructure. Akamai, with its 1,500 POPs and 300,000 servers now has a disadvantage because of that size. It's virtually impossible to start all over again. Akamai, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are all developing their own edge computing capabilities but because of their architectural disadvantages, their edge computing won't perform like that of Cloudflare. Because of Cloudflare's SDN structure, which is much more programmable and flexible, customers have much more control over the entire network, globally, instead of the individual POPs. That's a huge competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>对于传统玩家来说，首先是Akamai，还有Amazon、Google和微软，改变他们的整个基础设施并不简单。Akamai拥有1,500个POP和300,000台服务器，现在由于其规模而处于劣势。几乎不可能从头再来。Akamai、微软、Google和Amazon都在开发自己的边缘计算能力，但由于它们的架构劣势，它们的边缘计算性能不会像Cloudflare那样。由于Cloudflare的SDN结构更具可编程性和灵活性，客户可以在全球范围内更好地控制整个网络，而不是单个POP。这是一个巨大的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare foresaw the SDN revolution in CDNs and that's why it has made its servers much more powerful and it needs much fewer POPs than the legacy players in this field. The POPs are much better interconnected too. Cloudflare's co-founder Lee Holloway,that tragic computer genius, has laid the foundations for Cloudflare's flexible architecture and that's why Cloudflare's network has the structure and capabilities it has now.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare预见到了CDN中的SDN革命，这就是为什么它使其服务器更加强大，并且比该领域的传统参与者需要更少的POP。持久性有机污染物的相互联系也更好。Cloudflare的联合创始人Lee Holloway是一位悲惨的计算机天才，他为Cloudflare的灵活架构奠定了基础，这就是Cloudflare的网络拥有现在的结构和功能的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's Jeff Bezos has been known to say: \"Your profit margin is my opportunity.\" It seems that Matthew Prince now thinks the same about Amazon's AWS and he's not afraid to show it, in this tweet for example:</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，亚马逊的杰夫·贝索斯曾说过：“你的利润率就是我的机会。”马修·普林斯(Matthew Prince)现在似乎对亚马逊的AWS也有同样的想法，而且他并不害怕表现出来，例如在这条推文中：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b2a749523fa2bc73eaea4a15efddc59\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and applications</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河和应用</b></blockquote></p><p> By being a programmable network, Cloudflare can make the typical extra applications of a CDN network faster and especially smarter. I understand that this is vague and that's why I will give some applications that are a consequence of this.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个可编程网络，Cloudflare可以使CDN网络的典型额外应用程序更快，尤其是更智能。我知道这是模糊的，这就是为什么我会给出一些应用程序，这是一个结果。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>traffic routing: the network can automatically detect and avoid problem areas, outages, DDoS attacks, etc.</li> <li>choosing the best distribution form automatically (cloud, on-prem, multi-cloud)</li> <li>making smart routing decisions based on the content form (files, pictures, video, gaming), the location of the end-user, which device is used, etc.</li> </ul> These are just some examples. There are more and with 5G on the horizon, this will only accelerate. There are so many future-oriented solutions that need high-speed internet and big data handling. Again, a few examples.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>流量路由：网络可以自动检测和避免问题区域、中断、DDoS攻击等。</li><li>自动选择最佳分发形式（云、本地、多云）</li><li>根据内容形式（文件、图片、视频、游戏）、最终用户的位置、使用的设备等做出智能路由决策。</li></ul>这些只是一些例子。还有更多，随着5G的到来，这只会加速。有如此多面向未来的解决方案需要高速互联网和大数据处理。再举几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Autonomous vehicles need to decide in a fraction of a second to stop for an unforeseen maneuver from another car. Ideally, these cars can communicate with each other to avoid collisions but you don't want latency there. Traffic could be much more distributed too, in the way that data traffic is distributed, for example.</p><p><blockquote>自动驾驶汽车需要在几分之一秒内决定停下来，以应对另一辆车的不可预见的动作。理想情况下，这些汽车可以相互通信以避免碰撞，但您不希望那里有延迟。流量也可以更加分布式，例如，以数据流量的分布式方式。</blockquote></p><p> The edge could also be crucial for health devices to have constant and fast internet. If someone is monitored for heart problems and his heart fails, every second can mean the difference between life and death. Or think of autonomous robot surgery possibilities. Faster really means better and the edge is faster (and cheaper).</p><p><blockquote>这种优势对于健康设备拥有持续快速的互联网也至关重要。如果有人被监测心脏问题，他的心脏衰竭了，每一秒都可能意味着生与死的区别。或者想想自主机器人手术的可能性。更快真的意味着更好，边缘更快（也更便宜）。</blockquote></p><p> But most of all, the edge will be used for IoT. I know from somebody who works at the computer department of Coca-Cola UK for example that all of their fridges are connected to the edge cloud. They can all be controlled centrally. If one doesn't work, if the temperature of all of them has to be adapted, if one uses more electricity, this can all be seen.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是，边缘将用于物联网。例如，我从在可口可乐英国公司计算机部门工作的人那里了解到，他们所有的冰箱都连接到边缘云。它们都可以集中控制。如果一个不工作，如果所有的温度都要适应，如果一个用电多，这都可以看到。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Cloudflare can easily shift strategies because of its lean and flexible underlying structure. Cloudflare opened up its network for 3rd party developers in June of 2017. This is how Matthew Prince, Cloudflare's CEO,announced it:</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare可以轻松转变策略，因为它具有精益和灵活的底层结构。Cloudflare于2017年6月向第三方开发者开放了其网络。Cloudflare首席执行官Matthew Prince是这样宣布的：</blockquote></p><p> Prior to today, if you wanted to write code that took full advantage of Cloudflare's global network you needed to be a Cloudflare employee. Our team is able to run code on thousands of servers in hundreds of locations around the world and modify our customers' packets as they flow through our network in order to make their web site, application, or API faster and more secure. Today, we open that access to the rest of the world. This led to edge computing. Cloudflare already rolled out Cloudflare Workers in 2017. This is what Matthew Prince, Cloudflare's CEO,wrote about Workers a year ago:</p><p><blockquote>在今天之前，如果您想编写充分利用Cloudflare全球网络的代码，您需要成为Cloudflare员工。我们的团队能够在全球数百个地点的数千台服务器上运行代码，并在客户的数据包流经我们的网络时对其进行修改，以使其网站、应用程序或API更快、更安全。今天，我们向世界其他地方开放了这一通道。这导致了边缘计算。Cloudflare已经在2017年推出了Cloudflare Workers。这是Cloudflare首席执行官Matthew Prince一年前写的关于员工的文章：</blockquote></p><p> We announced Cloudflare Workers nearly three years ago and it's been generally available for the last two years. Over that time, we've seen hundreds of thousands of developers write tens of millions of lines of code that now run across Cloudflare's network. Just last quarter, 20,000 developers deployed for the first time a new application using Cloudflare Workers. Fastly has launched Compute@Edge recently too, its edge computing platform. An edge cloud platform exists between the IoT devices and the servers<i>and</i>between the servers themselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们在大约三年前宣布了Cloudflare Workers，它在过去两年中已经普遍可用。在那段时间里，我们看到成千上万的开发人员编写了数千万行代码，这些代码现在在Cloudflare的网络中运行。就在上个季度，20,000名开发人员首次使用Cloudflare Workers部署了新应用程序。Fastly最近也推出了其边缘计算平台Compute@Edge。物联网设备和服务器之间存在边缘云平台<i>和</i>在服务器之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d4327fc2095f720864a949f6cc2fc7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> While speed was seen as the killer application at first, Matthew Prince has changed his mind from the reality that he sees. He calls it Matthew's Hierarchy of Developers' Needs:</p><p><blockquote>虽然速度起初被视为杀手级应用，但马修·普林斯已经改变了他所看到的现实的想法。他评级了Matthew的开发者需求层次：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c78a80e43fafa20827c8876af1ef3de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The beginning of a new era in computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计算新时代的开始</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the beginning of a new era of computing and there are many ways in which this could develop. CDNs aren't just meant for fast distribution and security anymore but it becomes a completely programmable network on their own.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个新的计算时代的开始，有许多方式可以发展。CDN不再仅仅意味着快速分发和安全，而是成为一个完全可编程的网络。</blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare clearly has the lead and the first-mover advantage and it is almost impossible for CDNs such as Akamai or Limelight Networks (LLNW) to overtake our Potential Multibaggers for years and years because of their hierarchical structure. Although Amazon and Akamai already have some edge computing capabilities, it won't have the powerful programming capabilities Cloudflare's edge computing because the edge servers are not directly connected to each other.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare显然具有领先优势和先发优势，由于其分层结构，Akamai或Limelight Networks(LLNW)等CDN多年来几乎不可能超越我们潜在的多包商。虽然亚马逊和Akamai已经拥有了一些边缘计算能力，但它不会拥有Cloudflare边缘计算的强大编程能力，因为边缘服务器之间没有直接连接。</blockquote></p><p> Edge computing could become, over time, as big as cloud computing now and it will probably take away a part of the market of AWS, Azure and others. Not that those will shrink. The explosion of data will make that most IoT data will never leave the edge. That will become more than half of all data. For requests, this will be even much more.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，边缘计算可能会变得像现在的云计算一样大，它可能会夺走AWS、Azure和其他公司的一部分市场。并不是说这些会缩小。数据的爆炸将使大多数物联网数据永远不会离开边缘。这将成为所有数据的一半以上。对于请求，这将会更多。</blockquote></p><p> This transforms all that Cloudflare offers right now, including CDN, into an application, one of the many to come. And that's what is so exciting about this company. The market of edge computing is impossible to calculate as we can't even imagine what the applications will be. Cloudflare will continue to roll out new applications and its customers can build new applications too, just as they can on AWS, for example.</p><p><blockquote>这将Cloudflare目前提供的所有功能（包括CDN）都转化为应用程序，这是未来众多应用程序之一。这就是这家公司令人兴奋的地方。边缘计算的市场是无法计算的，因为我们甚至无法想象应用会是什么。Cloudflare将继续推出新的应用程序，其客户也可以构建新的应用程序，就像他们在AWS上一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> In this article, I tried to explain the competitive advantage that Cloudflare has over the big players in this field. Of course, there is much more to know about the technological advancements in this space but I wanted to give you an overview of the industry and why Cloudflare has a competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我试图解释Cloudflare相对于该领域大公司的竞争优势。当然，关于这一领域的技术进步还有很多需要了解的，但我想向您概述一下该行业以及Cloudflare为何具有竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> This opportunity is simply too big and companies like Amazon, Microsoft and Google will definitely play an important role in this market. But because of its architectural advantage, Cloudflare prevails when it comes to quality and speed. The optionality of its programmable network is much higher than that of other players.</p><p><blockquote>这个机会太大了，像亚马逊、微软和谷歌这样的公司肯定会在这个市场上发挥重要作用。但由于其架构优势，Cloudflare在质量和速度方面占上风。其可编程网络的可选性远高于其他玩家。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, keep growing!</p><p><blockquote>同时，继续成长！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare's Moat (Why It's Better Than The Big Boys)<blockquote>Cloudflare的护城河（为什么它比大公司更好）</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare's Moat (Why It's Better Than The Big Boys)<blockquote>Cloudflare的护城河（为什么它比大公司更好）</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 22:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>After my last article, I got a lot of questions about what Cloudflare's moat is. Can it fight off the giants in this space: Amazon, Microsoft, Akamai?</li> <li>Cloudflare has a Software-Defined-Networking or SDN, which gives it a much more flexible and programmable network.</li> <li>With the Internet of Things about to explode, a huge percentage of data will never leave the edge cloud.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9052b8744f400e2a1fcd5e28c02a9fd0\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Anthony Harvey/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>在我的上一篇文章之后，我收到了很多关于Cloudflare护城河是什么的问题。它能打败这个领域的巨头：亚马逊、微软、Akamai吗？</li><li>Cloudflare有一个软件定义的网络或SDN，这为它提供了一个更加灵活和可编程的网络。</li><li>随着物联网即将爆发，很大一部分数据将永远不会离开边缘云。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安东尼·哈维/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Almost two months ago,I published an article about Cloudflare (NET), in which I argued that Cloudflare was worth its premium price. The stock is up about 30% since then but for me, as a long-term investor, the story hasn't changed, so that's not the reason why I write this article.</p><p><blockquote>大约两个月前，我发表了一篇关于Cloudflare(NET)的文章，其中我认为Cloudflare值得其溢价。自那以后，该股上涨了约30%，但对我来说，作为一名长期投资者，情况并没有改变，所以这不是我写这篇文章的原因。</blockquote></p><p> After that article, I got a lot of questions about the moat of Cloudflare and a lot of people seem to think that Cloudflare can be crushed by the big players in this field. And of course, with giants like Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Akamai (AKAM) in this industry, I understand the question.</p><p><blockquote>在那篇文章之后，我收到了很多关于Cloudflare护城河的问题，很多人似乎认为Cloudflare可以被该领域的大玩家压垮。当然，这个行业有亚马逊（AMZN）、谷歌（GOOG）（GOOGL）、微软（MSFT）和Akamai（AKAM）等巨头，我理解这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> But Cloudflare is much more than just a CDN network. After 25 years, CDN has become a commodity. Cloudflare has something special to protect it from the giants in this space, though. Of course, they will be there and they will take a certain percentage of the market, together probably a majority even, but that doesn't matter with such a huge market. After all, for the edge cloud, we are about where we were more than a decade ago for the core cloud (AWS, Azure...) and that means very early. The potential is huge.</p><p><blockquote>但是Cloudflare不仅仅是一个CDN网络。25年后，CDN已经成为一种商品。不过，Cloudflare有一些特殊的东西可以保护它免受这个领域巨头的攻击。当然，他们会在那里，他们会占据一定比例的市场，甚至可能是大多数，但对于如此巨大的市场来说，这并不重要。毕竟，对于边缘云来说，我们大约是十多年前核心云（AWS、Azure...）这意味着很早。潜力巨大。</blockquote></p><p> Before we start, just a quick thought. I think that the term 'moat' has been overused in recent years. A moat is supposed to be impenetrable and there are only very few companies who have that. Mostly they are the biggest companies in our world. So, you could argue that the title should have been Cloudflare's competitive advantage. The reason why I still used the word moat is that most people use that term.</p><p><blockquote>在我们开始之前，先想一想。我认为“护城河”这个词近年来被过度使用了。护城河应该是坚不可摧的，但只有极少数公司拥有这一点。大多数情况下，他们是我们世界上最大的公司。因此，你可能会说这个头衔应该是Cloudflare的竞争优势。我仍然使用护城河这个词的原因是大多数人都使用这个词。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is developer-friendly</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare对开发人员友好</b></blockquote></p><p> There are several CDN providers. Akamai is the big pure legacy player and 1,500 POPs (points-of-presence) and approximately 300,000 servers in 136 countries worldwide. If you know that Cloudflare has about 200 POPs, you could think that there is no way that it can fight Akamai.</p><p><blockquote>有几个CDN提供商。Akamai是一家大型纯传统企业，在全球136个国家/地区拥有1,500个POP（接入点）和大约300,000台服务器。如果您知道Cloudflare有大约200个POP，您可能会认为它不可能与Akamai竞争。</blockquote></p><p> But POPs and CDN in general are commodities, cutting-edge technology and that's where Cloudflare is in a league of its own.</p><p><blockquote>但总的来说，POPs和CDN都是商品、尖端技术，这就是Cloudflare独树一帜的地方。</blockquote></p><p> The difference between Cloudflare and the rest of the CDNs is that Cloudflare is really developer-focused. I know, you hear that a lot, but I will try to explain what that means in the context of Cloudflare and CDNs. We have to become a bit technical but I will try to simplify without dumbing it down.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare与其他CDN的区别在于Cloudflare真正以开发人员为中心。我知道，您经常听到这句话，但我将尝试在Cloudflare和CDN的上下文中解释这意味着什么。我们必须变得有点技术性，但我会尽量简化而不降低它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SDN</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SDN</b></blockquote></p><p> First, you have to understand what SDN means. It stands for software-defined networking and it is a way in which you can manage your network. SDN improves both the network performance as the monitoring.</p><p><blockquote>首先，你要明白SDN是什么意思。它代表软件定义的网络，是一种管理网络的方式。SDN提高了网络性能和监控能力。</blockquote></p><p> An SDN architecture separates the network control from the hardware infrastructure. In that way, it's easier to control the whole network. This differs from the older network structure, which is hierarchical. This image shows the difference between the SDN and hierarchical structure.</p><p><blockquote>SDN架构将网络控制与硬件基础设施分开。那样的话，更容易控制整个网络。这与旧的网络结构不同，旧的网络结构是分层的。此图显示了SDN和分层结构之间的区别。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/420d12a5a54ff415c3572ebeedb84abe\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"545\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the forward layer (which handles the traffic) and the control layers are separated in an SDN structure.</p><p><blockquote>如您所见，转发层（处理流量）和控制层在SDN结构中是分开的。</blockquote></p><p> Because there's so much more data being used in our society, because networks become more and more complex, and because we all expect networks to perform better, a hierarchical structure is becoming more and more something of the past.</p><p><blockquote>因为在我们的社会中有如此多的数据被使用，因为网络变得越来越复杂，因为我们都期望网络表现得更好，分层结构越来越成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> SDNs give much more flexibility and control because you can adapt centrally. This means that the whole network becomes directly programmable, instead of all the separate parts individually. This saves a lot of time, of course, and makes sure that updates can be more easily deployed. It makes SDN somewhat similar to cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>SDN提供了更大的灵活性和控制力，因为您可以集中适应。这意味着整个网络变得可直接编程，而不是所有单独的部分单独编程。当然，这节省了大量时间，并确保更新可以更容易地部署。它使得SDN有些类似于云计算。</blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare itself gives a great analogy between SDN and hierarchical networking:</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare本身对SDN和分层网络进行了很好的类比：</blockquote></p><p> Think of the difference between typing an essay on a typewriter and typing it in a word processing application: Any changes to the typewritten essay mean it has to be retyped, while a word processing document can be revised endlessly. Similarly, SDN technology lets admins reconfigure their networks from a computer, instead of continually plugging and unplugging cables and devices. <b>Edge computing</b></p><p><blockquote>想想在打字机上打字和在文字处理应用程序中打字之间的区别：对打字文章的任何更改都意味着必须重新打字，而文字处理文档可以无休止地修改。同样，SDN技术允许管理员从计算机重新配置他们的网络，而不是不断地插拔电缆和设备。<b>边缘计算</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The difference between Cloudflare and the competition is in how it has constructed the architecture of its POPs (points of presence, the servers that are distributed around the world) and especially the networks in between those POPs. Cloudflare has a structure that makes the network between its POPs programmable too, so-called edge computing.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare与竞争对手的区别在于它如何构建其POP（存在点，分布在世界各地的服务器）的架构，尤其是这些POP之间的网络。Cloudflare的结构使其POP之间的网络也可编程，即所谓的边缘计算。</blockquote></p><p> Edge computing is especially important for the Internet of Things or IoT. These devices generate a huge amount of data. Cloud computing as we know it works great but not for the IoT data flood. IoT devices are easily hackable for example, but there are also performance problems.</p><p><blockquote>边缘计算对于物联网或IoT尤为重要。这些设备会产生大量的数据。我们所知的云计算非常有效，但不适用于物联网数据洪流。例如，物联网设备很容易被黑客攻击，但也存在性能问题。</blockquote></p><p> Besides those problems, what do you do with the huge amount of data? One solution is to store it in huge data lakes and that's why there is so much excitement around a company like Snowflake (SNOW) for example. But edge computing is better for IoT solutions. It can handle and store the data on the device that generated it and let them interact:</p><p><blockquote>除了那些问题，你如何处理海量的数据？一种解决方案是将其存储在巨大的数据湖中，这就是为什么像Snowflake（SNOW）这样的公司如此令人兴奋。但边缘计算更适合物联网解决方案。它可以在生成数据的设备上处理和存储数据，并让它们进行交互：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125a664a9d2e846b78709093a829ffb9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare may have fewer POPs but they are built from the ground up as SDN architectures and they are much more powerful, which gives it the flexibility and customizability to have really powerful edge computing.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的POP可能较少，但它们是作为SDN架构从头开始构建的，功能更加强大，这使其具有灵活性和可定制性，可以拥有真正强大的边缘计算。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competition from the big boys</b></p><p><blockquote><b>来自大男孩的竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> For the legacy players, Akamai in the first place, but also Amazon, Google, and Microsoft's it's not simple to change their whole infrastructure. Akamai, with its 1,500 POPs and 300,000 servers now has a disadvantage because of that size. It's virtually impossible to start all over again. Akamai, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are all developing their own edge computing capabilities but because of their architectural disadvantages, their edge computing won't perform like that of Cloudflare. Because of Cloudflare's SDN structure, which is much more programmable and flexible, customers have much more control over the entire network, globally, instead of the individual POPs. That's a huge competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>对于传统玩家来说，首先是Akamai，还有Amazon、Google和微软，改变他们的整个基础设施并不简单。Akamai拥有1,500个POP和300,000台服务器，现在由于其规模而处于劣势。几乎不可能从头再来。Akamai、微软、Google和Amazon都在开发自己的边缘计算能力，但由于它们的架构劣势，它们的边缘计算性能不会像Cloudflare那样。由于Cloudflare的SDN结构更具可编程性和灵活性，客户可以在全球范围内更好地控制整个网络，而不是单个POP。这是一个巨大的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare foresaw the SDN revolution in CDNs and that's why it has made its servers much more powerful and it needs much fewer POPs than the legacy players in this field. The POPs are much better interconnected too. Cloudflare's co-founder Lee Holloway,that tragic computer genius, has laid the foundations for Cloudflare's flexible architecture and that's why Cloudflare's network has the structure and capabilities it has now.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare预见到了CDN中的SDN革命，这就是为什么它使其服务器更加强大，并且比该领域的传统参与者需要更少的POP。持久性有机污染物的相互联系也更好。Cloudflare的联合创始人Lee Holloway是一位悲惨的计算机天才，他为Cloudflare的灵活架构奠定了基础，这就是Cloudflare的网络拥有现在的结构和功能的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's Jeff Bezos has been known to say: \"Your profit margin is my opportunity.\" It seems that Matthew Prince now thinks the same about Amazon's AWS and he's not afraid to show it, in this tweet for example:</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，亚马逊的杰夫·贝索斯曾说过：“你的利润率就是我的机会。”马修·普林斯(Matthew Prince)现在似乎对亚马逊的AWS也有同样的想法，而且他并不害怕表现出来，例如在这条推文中：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b2a749523fa2bc73eaea4a15efddc59\" tg-width=\"584\" tg-height=\"254\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The moat and applications</b></p><p><blockquote><b>护城河和应用</b></blockquote></p><p> By being a programmable network, Cloudflare can make the typical extra applications of a CDN network faster and especially smarter. I understand that this is vague and that's why I will give some applications that are a consequence of this.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个可编程网络，Cloudflare可以使CDN网络的典型额外应用程序更快，尤其是更智能。我知道这是模糊的，这就是为什么我会给出一些应用程序，这是一个结果。</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>traffic routing: the network can automatically detect and avoid problem areas, outages, DDoS attacks, etc.</li> <li>choosing the best distribution form automatically (cloud, on-prem, multi-cloud)</li> <li>making smart routing decisions based on the content form (files, pictures, video, gaming), the location of the end-user, which device is used, etc.</li> </ul> These are just some examples. There are more and with 5G on the horizon, this will only accelerate. There are so many future-oriented solutions that need high-speed internet and big data handling. Again, a few examples.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>流量路由：网络可以自动检测和避免问题区域、中断、DDoS攻击等。</li><li>自动选择最佳分发形式（云、本地、多云）</li><li>根据内容形式（文件、图片、视频、游戏）、最终用户的位置、使用的设备等做出智能路由决策。</li></ul>这些只是一些例子。还有更多，随着5G的到来，这只会加速。有如此多面向未来的解决方案需要高速互联网和大数据处理。再举几个例子。</blockquote></p><p> Autonomous vehicles need to decide in a fraction of a second to stop for an unforeseen maneuver from another car. Ideally, these cars can communicate with each other to avoid collisions but you don't want latency there. Traffic could be much more distributed too, in the way that data traffic is distributed, for example.</p><p><blockquote>自动驾驶汽车需要在几分之一秒内决定停下来，以应对另一辆车的不可预见的动作。理想情况下，这些汽车可以相互通信以避免碰撞，但您不希望那里有延迟。流量也可以更加分布式，例如，以数据流量的分布式方式。</blockquote></p><p> The edge could also be crucial for health devices to have constant and fast internet. If someone is monitored for heart problems and his heart fails, every second can mean the difference between life and death. Or think of autonomous robot surgery possibilities. Faster really means better and the edge is faster (and cheaper).</p><p><blockquote>这种优势对于健康设备拥有持续快速的互联网也至关重要。如果有人被监测心脏问题，他的心脏衰竭了，每一秒都可能意味着生与死的区别。或者想想自主机器人手术的可能性。更快真的意味着更好，边缘更快（也更便宜）。</blockquote></p><p> But most of all, the edge will be used for IoT. I know from somebody who works at the computer department of Coca-Cola UK for example that all of their fridges are connected to the edge cloud. They can all be controlled centrally. If one doesn't work, if the temperature of all of them has to be adapted, if one uses more electricity, this can all be seen.</p><p><blockquote>但最重要的是，边缘将用于物联网。例如，我从在可口可乐英国公司计算机部门工作的人那里了解到，他们所有的冰箱都连接到边缘云。它们都可以集中控制。如果一个不工作，如果所有的温度都要适应，如果一个用电多，这都可以看到。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Cloudflare can easily shift strategies because of its lean and flexible underlying structure. Cloudflare opened up its network for 3rd party developers in June of 2017. This is how Matthew Prince, Cloudflare's CEO,announced it:</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare可以轻松转变策略，因为它具有精益和灵活的底层结构。Cloudflare于2017年6月向第三方开发者开放了其网络。Cloudflare首席执行官Matthew Prince是这样宣布的：</blockquote></p><p> Prior to today, if you wanted to write code that took full advantage of Cloudflare's global network you needed to be a Cloudflare employee. Our team is able to run code on thousands of servers in hundreds of locations around the world and modify our customers' packets as they flow through our network in order to make their web site, application, or API faster and more secure. Today, we open that access to the rest of the world. This led to edge computing. Cloudflare already rolled out Cloudflare Workers in 2017. This is what Matthew Prince, Cloudflare's CEO,wrote about Workers a year ago:</p><p><blockquote>在今天之前，如果您想编写充分利用Cloudflare全球网络的代码，您需要成为Cloudflare员工。我们的团队能够在全球数百个地点的数千台服务器上运行代码，并在客户的数据包流经我们的网络时对其进行修改，以使其网站、应用程序或API更快、更安全。今天，我们向世界其他地方开放了这一通道。这导致了边缘计算。Cloudflare已经在2017年推出了Cloudflare Workers。这是Cloudflare首席执行官Matthew Prince一年前写的关于员工的文章：</blockquote></p><p> We announced Cloudflare Workers nearly three years ago and it's been generally available for the last two years. Over that time, we've seen hundreds of thousands of developers write tens of millions of lines of code that now run across Cloudflare's network. Just last quarter, 20,000 developers deployed for the first time a new application using Cloudflare Workers. Fastly has launched Compute@Edge recently too, its edge computing platform. An edge cloud platform exists between the IoT devices and the servers<i>and</i>between the servers themselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们在大约三年前宣布了Cloudflare Workers，它在过去两年中已经普遍可用。在那段时间里，我们看到成千上万的开发人员编写了数千万行代码，这些代码现在在Cloudflare的网络中运行。就在上个季度，20,000名开发人员首次使用Cloudflare Workers部署了新应用程序。Fastly最近也推出了其边缘计算平台Compute@Edge。物联网设备和服务器之间存在边缘云平台<i>和</i>在服务器之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d4327fc2095f720864a949f6cc2fc7\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"902\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> While speed was seen as the killer application at first, Matthew Prince has changed his mind from the reality that he sees. He calls it Matthew's Hierarchy of Developers' Needs:</p><p><blockquote>虽然速度起初被视为杀手级应用，但马修·普林斯已经改变了他所看到的现实的想法。他评级了Matthew的开发者需求层次：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c78a80e43fafa20827c8876af1ef3de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>The beginning of a new era in computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计算新时代的开始</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the beginning of a new era of computing and there are many ways in which this could develop. CDNs aren't just meant for fast distribution and security anymore but it becomes a completely programmable network on their own.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个新的计算时代的开始，有许多方式可以发展。CDN不再仅仅意味着快速分发和安全，而是成为一个完全可编程的网络。</blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare clearly has the lead and the first-mover advantage and it is almost impossible for CDNs such as Akamai or Limelight Networks (LLNW) to overtake our Potential Multibaggers for years and years because of their hierarchical structure. Although Amazon and Akamai already have some edge computing capabilities, it won't have the powerful programming capabilities Cloudflare's edge computing because the edge servers are not directly connected to each other.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare显然具有领先优势和先发优势，由于其分层结构，Akamai或Limelight Networks(LLNW)等CDN多年来几乎不可能超越我们潜在的多包商。虽然亚马逊和Akamai已经拥有了一些边缘计算能力，但它不会拥有Cloudflare边缘计算的强大编程能力，因为边缘服务器之间没有直接连接。</blockquote></p><p> Edge computing could become, over time, as big as cloud computing now and it will probably take away a part of the market of AWS, Azure and others. Not that those will shrink. The explosion of data will make that most IoT data will never leave the edge. That will become more than half of all data. For requests, this will be even much more.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，边缘计算可能会变得像现在的云计算一样大，它可能会夺走AWS、Azure和其他公司的一部分市场。并不是说这些会缩小。数据的爆炸将使大多数物联网数据永远不会离开边缘。这将成为所有数据的一半以上。对于请求，这将会更多。</blockquote></p><p> This transforms all that Cloudflare offers right now, including CDN, into an application, one of the many to come. And that's what is so exciting about this company. The market of edge computing is impossible to calculate as we can't even imagine what the applications will be. Cloudflare will continue to roll out new applications and its customers can build new applications too, just as they can on AWS, for example.</p><p><blockquote>这将Cloudflare目前提供的所有功能（包括CDN）都转化为应用程序，这是未来众多应用程序之一。这就是这家公司令人兴奋的地方。边缘计算的市场是无法计算的，因为我们甚至无法想象应用会是什么。Cloudflare将继续推出新的应用程序，其客户也可以构建新的应用程序，就像他们在AWS上一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> In this article, I tried to explain the competitive advantage that Cloudflare has over the big players in this field. Of course, there is much more to know about the technological advancements in this space but I wanted to give you an overview of the industry and why Cloudflare has a competitive advantage.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我试图解释Cloudflare相对于该领域大公司的竞争优势。当然，关于这一领域的技术进步还有很多需要了解的，但我想向您概述一下该行业以及Cloudflare为何具有竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> This opportunity is simply too big and companies like Amazon, Microsoft and Google will definitely play an important role in this market. But because of its architectural advantage, Cloudflare prevails when it comes to quality and speed. The optionality of its programmable network is much higher than that of other players.</p><p><blockquote>这个机会太大了，像亚马逊、微软和谷歌这样的公司肯定会在这个市场上发挥重要作用。但由于其架构优势，Cloudflare在质量和速度方面占上风。其可编程网络的可选性远高于其他玩家。</blockquote></p><p> In the meantime, keep growing!</p><p><blockquote>同时，继续成长！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437429-cloudflares-moat-why-its-better-than-the-big-boys-net\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4437429-cloudflares-moat-why-its-better-than-the-big-boys-net","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148587912","content_text":"Summary\n\nAfter my last article, I got a lot of questions about what Cloudflare's moat is. Can it fight off the giants in this space: Amazon, Microsoft, Akamai?\nCloudflare has a Software-Defined-Networking or SDN, which gives it a much more flexible and programmable network.\nWith the Internet of Things about to explode, a huge percentage of data will never leave the edge cloud.\n\nAnthony Harvey/Getty Images Entertainment\nIntroduction\nAlmost two months ago,I published an article about Cloudflare (NET), in which I argued that Cloudflare was worth its premium price. The stock is up about 30% since then but for me, as a long-term investor, the story hasn't changed, so that's not the reason why I write this article.\nAfter that article, I got a lot of questions about the moat of Cloudflare and a lot of people seem to think that Cloudflare can be crushed by the big players in this field. And of course, with giants like Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT) and Akamai (AKAM) in this industry, I understand the question.\nBut Cloudflare is much more than just a CDN network. After 25 years, CDN has become a commodity. Cloudflare has something special to protect it from the giants in this space, though. Of course, they will be there and they will take a certain percentage of the market, together probably a majority even, but that doesn't matter with such a huge market. After all, for the edge cloud, we are about where we were more than a decade ago for the core cloud (AWS, Azure...) and that means very early. The potential is huge.\nBefore we start, just a quick thought. I think that the term 'moat' has been overused in recent years. A moat is supposed to be impenetrable and there are only very few companies who have that. Mostly they are the biggest companies in our world. So, you could argue that the title should have been Cloudflare's competitive advantage. The reason why I still used the word moat is that most people use that term.\nCloudflare is developer-friendly\nThere are several CDN providers. Akamai is the big pure legacy player and 1,500 POPs (points-of-presence) and approximately 300,000 servers in 136 countries worldwide. If you know that Cloudflare has about 200 POPs, you could think that there is no way that it can fight Akamai.\nBut POPs and CDN in general are commodities, cutting-edge technology and that's where Cloudflare is in a league of its own.\nThe difference between Cloudflare and the rest of the CDNs is that Cloudflare is really developer-focused. I know, you hear that a lot, but I will try to explain what that means in the context of Cloudflare and CDNs. We have to become a bit technical but I will try to simplify without dumbing it down.\nSDN\nFirst, you have to understand what SDN means. It stands for software-defined networking and it is a way in which you can manage your network. SDN improves both the network performance as the monitoring.\nAn SDN architecture separates the network control from the hardware infrastructure. In that way, it's easier to control the whole network. This differs from the older network structure, which is hierarchical. This image shows the difference between the SDN and hierarchical structure.\n\nAs you can see, the forward layer (which handles the traffic) and the control layers are separated in an SDN structure.\nBecause there's so much more data being used in our society, because networks become more and more complex, and because we all expect networks to perform better, a hierarchical structure is becoming more and more something of the past.\nSDNs give much more flexibility and control because you can adapt centrally. This means that the whole network becomes directly programmable, instead of all the separate parts individually. This saves a lot of time, of course, and makes sure that updates can be more easily deployed. It makes SDN somewhat similar to cloud computing.\nCloudflare itself gives a great analogy between SDN and hierarchical networking:\n\n Think of the difference between typing an essay on a typewriter and typing it in a word processing application: Any changes to the typewritten essay mean it has to be retyped, while a word processing document can be revised endlessly. Similarly, SDN technology lets admins reconfigure their networks from a computer, instead of continually plugging and unplugging cables and devices.\n\nEdge computing\nThe difference between Cloudflare and the competition is in how it has constructed the architecture of its POPs (points of presence, the servers that are distributed around the world) and especially the networks in between those POPs. Cloudflare has a structure that makes the network between its POPs programmable too, so-called edge computing.\nEdge computing is especially important for the Internet of Things or IoT. These devices generate a huge amount of data. Cloud computing as we know it works great but not for the IoT data flood. IoT devices are easily hackable for example, but there are also performance problems.\nBesides those problems, what do you do with the huge amount of data? One solution is to store it in huge data lakes and that's why there is so much excitement around a company like Snowflake (SNOW) for example. But edge computing is better for IoT solutions. It can handle and store the data on the device that generated it and let them interact:\n\nCloudflare may have fewer POPs but they are built from the ground up as SDN architectures and they are much more powerful, which gives it the flexibility and customizability to have really powerful edge computing.\nCompetition from the big boys\nFor the legacy players, Akamai in the first place, but also Amazon, Google, and Microsoft's it's not simple to change their whole infrastructure. Akamai, with its 1,500 POPs and 300,000 servers now has a disadvantage because of that size. It's virtually impossible to start all over again. Akamai, Microsoft, Google and Amazon are all developing their own edge computing capabilities but because of their architectural disadvantages, their edge computing won't perform like that of Cloudflare. Because of Cloudflare's SDN structure, which is much more programmable and flexible, customers have much more control over the entire network, globally, instead of the individual POPs. That's a huge competitive advantage.\nCloudflare foresaw the SDN revolution in CDNs and that's why it has made its servers much more powerful and it needs much fewer POPs than the legacy players in this field. The POPs are much better interconnected too. Cloudflare's co-founder Lee Holloway,that tragic computer genius, has laid the foundations for Cloudflare's flexible architecture and that's why Cloudflare's network has the structure and capabilities it has now.\nAmazon's Jeff Bezos has been known to say: \"Your profit margin is my opportunity.\" It seems that Matthew Prince now thinks the same about Amazon's AWS and he's not afraid to show it, in this tweet for example:\n\nThe moat and applications\nBy being a programmable network, Cloudflare can make the typical extra applications of a CDN network faster and especially smarter. I understand that this is vague and that's why I will give some applications that are a consequence of this.\n\ntraffic routing: the network can automatically detect and avoid problem areas, outages, DDoS attacks, etc.\nchoosing the best distribution form automatically (cloud, on-prem, multi-cloud)\nmaking smart routing decisions based on the content form (files, pictures, video, gaming), the location of the end-user, which device is used, etc.\n\nThese are just some examples. There are more and with 5G on the horizon, this will only accelerate. There are so many future-oriented solutions that need high-speed internet and big data handling. Again, a few examples.\nAutonomous vehicles need to decide in a fraction of a second to stop for an unforeseen maneuver from another car. Ideally, these cars can communicate with each other to avoid collisions but you don't want latency there. Traffic could be much more distributed too, in the way that data traffic is distributed, for example.\nThe edge could also be crucial for health devices to have constant and fast internet. If someone is monitored for heart problems and his heart fails, every second can mean the difference between life and death. Or think of autonomous robot surgery possibilities. Faster really means better and the edge is faster (and cheaper).\nBut most of all, the edge will be used for IoT. I know from somebody who works at the computer department of Coca-Cola UK for example that all of their fridges are connected to the edge cloud. They can all be controlled centrally. If one doesn't work, if the temperature of all of them has to be adapted, if one uses more electricity, this can all be seen.\nCloudflare can easily shift strategies because of its lean and flexible underlying structure. Cloudflare opened up its network for 3rd party developers in June of 2017. This is how Matthew Prince, Cloudflare's CEO,announced it:\n\n Prior to today, if you wanted to write code that took full advantage of Cloudflare's global network you needed to be a Cloudflare employee. Our team is able to run code on thousands of servers in hundreds of locations around the world and modify our customers' packets as they flow through our network in order to make their web site, application, or API faster and more secure. Today, we open that access to the rest of the world.\n\nThis led to edge computing. Cloudflare already rolled out Cloudflare Workers in 2017. This is what Matthew Prince, Cloudflare's CEO,wrote about Workers a year ago:\n\n We announced Cloudflare Workers nearly three years ago and it's been generally available for the last two years. Over that time, we've seen hundreds of thousands of developers write tens of millions of lines of code that now run across Cloudflare's network.\n\n\n Just last quarter, 20,000 developers deployed for the first time a new application using Cloudflare Workers.\n\nFastly has launched Compute@Edge recently too, its edge computing platform. An edge cloud platform exists between the IoT devices and the serversandbetween the servers themselves.\n\nWhile speed was seen as the killer application at first, Matthew Prince has changed his mind from the reality that he sees. He calls it Matthew's Hierarchy of Developers' Needs:\n\nThe beginning of a new era in computing\nThis is the beginning of a new era of computing and there are many ways in which this could develop. CDNs aren't just meant for fast distribution and security anymore but it becomes a completely programmable network on their own.\nCloudflare clearly has the lead and the first-mover advantage and it is almost impossible for CDNs such as Akamai or Limelight Networks (LLNW) to overtake our Potential Multibaggers for years and years because of their hierarchical structure. Although Amazon and Akamai already have some edge computing capabilities, it won't have the powerful programming capabilities Cloudflare's edge computing because the edge servers are not directly connected to each other.\nEdge computing could become, over time, as big as cloud computing now and it will probably take away a part of the market of AWS, Azure and others. Not that those will shrink. The explosion of data will make that most IoT data will never leave the edge. That will become more than half of all data. For requests, this will be even much more.\nThis transforms all that Cloudflare offers right now, including CDN, into an application, one of the many to come. And that's what is so exciting about this company. The market of edge computing is impossible to calculate as we can't even imagine what the applications will be. Cloudflare will continue to roll out new applications and its customers can build new applications too, just as they can on AWS, for example.\nConclusion\nIn this article, I tried to explain the competitive advantage that Cloudflare has over the big players in this field. Of course, there is much more to know about the technological advancements in this space but I wanted to give you an overview of the industry and why Cloudflare has a competitive advantage.\nThis opportunity is simply too big and companies like Amazon, Microsoft and Google will definitely play an important role in this market. But because of its architectural advantage, Cloudflare prevails when it comes to quality and speed. The optionality of its programmable network is much higher than that of other players.\nIn the meantime, keep growing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}