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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-27
  Ok
  Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed
  Summary We continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth i
  Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed
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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-26
  Ok
  Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.
  Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report. The
  Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.
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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-21
  ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,703 1
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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-19
  Ok
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
  This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
  1,164 评论
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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-15
  Ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,451 评论
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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-14
  Ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-13
  Ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  977 评论
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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-11
  Pls like n comment
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-10
  Like n comment pls
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- tomatomashytomatomashy
  ·2021-07-09
  Like n comment pls
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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15:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139478455","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth i","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>We continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</li>\n <li>Our analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</li>\n <li>The dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ce2494cb75075c64622ebd6b351e43d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1155\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images News</span></p>\n<p>Palantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.</p>\n<p><b>There Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore</b></p>\n<p>Palantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.</p>\n<p>In addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.</p>\n<p>Another downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.</p>\n<p>For that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facca499bd702a4193cac4eabbe4a9a2\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p>\n<p>Another reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.</p>\n<p><b>Valuation</b></p>\n<p>We created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb588ed877784db58cfe10b7d49d6dae\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ, Own estimates</span></p>\n<p>After doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9988abd16861dfad80d5febd22b2c1fb\" tg-width=\"404\" tg-height=\"368\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p>\n<p>For relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70de8f9f7b52ae29d77492ed21083982\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"335\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05db90bdfb26c691331c9cdede01a87b\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"297\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Own estimates</span></p>\n<p><b>Takeaway</b></p>\n<p>Despite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.</p>\n<p>While we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Prepare To Be Disappointed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 15:23 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441334-palantir-prepare-to-be-disappointed><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nWe continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.\nOur analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441334-palantir-prepare-to-be-disappointed\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441334-palantir-prepare-to-be-disappointed","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139478455","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe continue to believe that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.\nOur analysis shows that Palantir’s fair value is $8.22 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.\nThe dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of Palantir’s stock anytime soon.\n\nKevin Dietsch/Getty Images News\nPalantir (PLTR) has been underperforming the market in recent weeks and we believe that its stock still has more room to fall. Our analysis shows that Palantir is extremely overvalued at the current levels and several issues are likely going to prevent its stock from appreciating further anytime soon. For that reason, we continue to believe that it’s better to avoid Palantir at the current price, as its upside appears to be limited.\nThere Are Several Red Flags, Which You Shouldn’t Ignore\nPalantir specializes in creating custom software solutions for collecting data for its clients, who are mostly government agencies and public companies. While some might think that Palantir is a young company with lots of potential, the reality is that it’s not a startup, as it has been in the business for almost two decades already, and since that time it has managed to add less than 200 customers. As a result, the company is exposed to a limited pool of organizations, who generate most of the revenues. This is mostly because Palantir doesn’t have a scalable business. The value of the company’s average contract ranges from $5 million to $6 million, which prevents small and medium businesses from using its services. While Palantir tries to tackle this issue by offering its Foundry platform for the commercial sector at attractive terms, it’s still too soon to tell whether it will improve its affordability to most of the third parties and have any major impact on its financials in the long run.\nIn addition, while bulls might want to deny this, but Palantir operates like a consulting company. The company has a special position of a forward-deployed engineer, who analyzes different processes of potential clients and then explains how Palantir’s software could help them improve their operations. Considering this, it’s safe to say that Palantir doesn’t have a unique business model since its whole proposition is that it can analyze the available data better than others. However, nothing stops new entrants from entering the field and offering similar solutions, and nothing stops organizations' internal IT departments from developing better tools to analyze all of the processes at a more affordable price.\nAnother downside of Palantir is that despite the increase in margins and gross profit in recent quarters, it never made a profit in its history after being so long in the business. Its operating loss has onlywidenedin recent years from -$600 million in 2018 to -$1.17 billion in 2020, to -$1.22 billion in the last twelve months. This is due to the excessive stock-based compensation program that results in increased expenses and massive dilution, which is something that a lot of bulls tend to ignore. Let’s not forget that the company’s expenses relating to the SBC program increased by around 257% year over year last quarter and were $193 million. At the same time, Palantir already has 1.8 billion shares outstanding, an increase from 1.52 billion shares, which were outstanding at the end of last year. The problem is that the excessive SBC program will continue to be a major issue for the company’s investors since there are still 477 million optionsoutstanding, which will dilute the current shareholders by more than 20% if fully exercised.\nFor that reason, we continue to believe that Palantir’s stock will continue to be an unattractive investment and it’ll likely continue to underperform the market. It’s already down ~15% since our bearisharticlewas published a month ago and we believe that there’s more room for a depreciation.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nAnother reason to be bearish about Palantir is due to the fact that there’s an extreme selling pressure, which is created by the company’s insiders and its CEO in particular, who are constantly dumping their shares on an open market. In July alone insiderssoldin total $63 million worth of Palantir shares, which is only $31 million slightly less than what they sold in Q1 when the lockup period expired. Considering this and the fact that they still have ~10% ownership stake in the company, it’s safe to assume they’ll continue to sell their shares and create an even greater selling pressure, which is likely going to prevent the stock from significantly appreciating from the current levels.\nValuation\nWe created a discounted cash flow model to find Palantir’s fair value. The weighted average cost of capital in our model is 6%, while the terminal growth rate is 3%.\nSource: Capital IQ, Own estimates\nAfter doing all the necessary calculations, our DCF model showed that Palantir’s fair value is $8.47 per share, which represents a downside of over 60% from the current market price.\nSource: Own estimates\nFor relative valuation, we compared Palantir to eight other companies from the tech industry and the SaaS niche in particular. By looking at the numbers below, we could safely say that Palantir is extremely overvalued to others, especially since its EBITDA margin of -72.8% is the worst among its peers, and at a market cap of ~$40 billion, its stock is overpriced.\nSource: Capital IQ\nBy consolidating the DCF model and the relative valuation method and giving the former 75% weight in the final analysis, while giving the latter 25$ weight in the final analysis, we concluded that Palantir’s final fair value is $8.22 per share, which is significantly below its current market price of ~$22 per share.\nSource: Own estimates\nTakeaway\nDespite its advanced data software solutions, Palantir continues to be an unattractive investment in our opinion and its stock is unlikely to move significantly higher anytime soon. The company doesn’t have a unique proposition at an affordable price on the market and there’s every reason to believe that its expenses will continue to increase in the following years due to the higher inflation and increased competition, while its bottom line will continue to suffer. As a result, despite signing new multi-million contracts from time to time, it’s still hard to justify its ~$40 billion market cap. Considering this, we strongly believe that Palantir is not a value investment at this stage, and not a growth play as well since the dilution risk and the continuous selling pressure are likely going to prevent the appreciation of its stock anytime soon.\nWhile we don’t expect the stock to depreciate to its fair value of $8.22 per share in the foreseeable future, a decent decline from the current market price is more than possible, especially since the company already trades at 28 times its revenues and is considered to be overvalued. For that reason, we stick to our opinion that Palantir’s upside appears to be limited and its future growth is already priced in.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800607426,"gmtCreate":1627295527965,"gmtModify":1631890360309,"author":{"id":"3575037711303784","authorId":"3575037711303784","name":"tomatomashy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ef93593819bb14a7f75712dc04c3a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575037711303784","authorIdStr":"3575037711303784"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800607426","repostId":"1151724613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151724613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627292512,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151724613?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151724613","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe ","content":"<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.</p>\n<p>The EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.</p>\n<p>There will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable&nbsp;car company&nbsp;and its iconoclast CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk.</p>\n<p>Factors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global&nbsp;semiconductor&nbsp;shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d908f359ce3333ed256684e007ff74d0\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"580\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Tesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.</p>\n<p>The good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered&nbsp;more than 200,000&nbsp;vehicles in a single quarter.</p>\n<p>After earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla&nbsp;beat earnings&nbsp;estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.</p>\n<p>There is also the issue&nbsp;of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.</p>\n<p>Investors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s&nbsp;Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software&nbsp;as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its&nbsp;charging network&nbsp;to other EVs down the road.</p>\n<p>Those topics and more should be discussed on the earnings&nbsp;conference call&nbsp;scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.</p>\n<p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Reports Earnings Today. Here's What Matters Most.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-26 17:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-earnings-preview-51627061822?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151724613","content_text":"Tesla is set to report second-quarter earnings Monday. Get ready for a very complicated report.\nThe EV pioneer will report after the close of trading on Monday, July 26. Wall Street is looking for Tesla (ticker: TSLA) to report about 94 cents in per-share earnings from $11.5 billion in sales, according to FactSet. Beating analyst estimates is important, almost required, for any stock to remain stable in post-earnings trading. That’s true for Tesla as well.\nThere will be a lot of moving parts, however, even more than usual for the world’s most valuable car company and its iconoclast CEO Elon Musk.\nFactors that will contribute to bottom-line earnings include the global semiconductor shortage,vehicle pricing, vehicle gross profit margins, and the level of profitability in Tesla’s battery storage business. In the end, however, investors will want to see a record in operating profits—no matter how it happens. That’s what could break shares out of their recent range.\n\nTesla reported more than $800 million in operating profits in the 2020 third quarter, and the stock more than doubled to around $860 in the three-month span that followed. But since operating profit growth largely paused in the subsequent quarters, shares have traded down from roughly $860 to around $640 recently. Profit stagnation has meant stock stagnation, too.\nThe good news for Tesla bulls is Wall Street is projecting a fresh record: Operating profit is expected to be $835 million for the second quarter, driven by strong deliveries. The 2021 second quarter marked the first time Tesla delivered more than 200,000 vehicles in a single quarter.\nAfter earnings are digested, there should be endless arguments among bulls and bears about the quality of earnings. For instance, one way Tesla generates sales is by selling regulatory credits—which it earns by producing more than its fair share of electric vehicles. The company generated $518 million in first-quarter credit sales, which helped Tesla beat earnings estimates. There is always debate about what is the “normal” amount of credit sales and when will those sales dry up. Eventually, both the bulls and bears expect other auto makers to sell their own EVs, cutting off that source of revenue for Tesla.\nThere is also the issue of Bitcoin. Tesla recognized a small gain on its Bitcoin holdings in the first quarter, but the cryptocurrency’s prices have fallen by roughly half since their April peak. That means there is a chance of a small loss. How investors react is anyone’s guess, but don’t expect Tesla to sell out of its Bitcoin position. Musk continues to indicate his company will transact in the cryptocurrency when Bitcoin mining uses more sustainable power.\nInvestors will also want to know when Tesla’s new Germany plant and Austin, Texas facility will start delivering cars. The Austin plant will build Tesla’s Cybertruck. There will also likely be questions about advances in Tesla’s driver-assistance functions—the company recently started selling its driver-assistance software as a subscription—and how much money the company could make from its charging network. Musk tweeted this week Tesla would open its charging network to other EVs down the road.\nThose topics and more should be discussed on the earnings conference call scheduled for 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday. Year to date, Tesla stock is down roughly 9%, trailing behind comparable 17% and 15% respective gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Still, Tesla shares have had a strong run, up about 112% over the past 12 months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176935112,"gmtCreate":1626853264636,"gmtModify":1631890360314,"author":{"id":"3575037711303784","authorId":"3575037711303784","name":"tomatomashy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ef93593819bb14a7f75712dc04c3a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575037711303784","authorIdStr":"3575037711303784"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176935112","repostId":"1192375368","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171950254,"gmtCreate":1626703395978,"gmtModify":1631890360314,"author":{"id":"3575037711303784","authorId":"3575037711303784","name":"tomatomashy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4ef93593819bb14a7f75712dc04c3a6","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575037711303784","authorIdStr":"3575037711303784"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171950254","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. 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