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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-03-05
...risky stock it just took risky
Sundial Growers plunged more than 8%
(March 4) Sundial Growers plunged more than 8%.Sundial Growers Files For Stock Shelf Of Up To 98.33
Sundial Growers plunged more than 8%
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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-03-05
The retracement period is here!! 😱😱😱
Stocks are flat as market struggles to rebound from back-to-back losses
(March 4) U.S. stock index futures were trading near the flatline early Thursday, as a better-than-e
Stocks are flat as market struggles to rebound from back-to-back losses
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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-02-22
Slow market growth but it's the safest for now I guess 🤷🏽♂️
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-02-22
Seems like a market retracement crash is about to happen.. 🤷🏽♂️
Bitcoin slips sharply from record highs
Bitcoin fell sharply on Monday after surging to a record $58,354 a day earlier, as a selloff in glob
Bitcoin slips sharply from record highs
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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-02-21
Hi guys I'm planning on buying this stock but why does it say delayed?
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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-02-21
I'm contemplating on doing so because isn't the stock market going to have a retracement crash soon?
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-02-16
The dip in the market is shocking [惊讶]
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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-02-12
Hey guys I'm planning to invest in penny stocks. What would you recommend me to do for those stocks. Buy and hold or Sell-short?
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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-02-10
Is GME still having a possible bullish trend or a bearish ones? Any thoughts
GameStop Revives Fights Over Stock Tax, HFT Firms Buying Orders
Leading Democrats are calling for tougher financial regulation Changing the rules could be difficult
GameStop Revives Fights Over Stock Tax, HFT Firms Buying Orders
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6f55e400
6f55e400
·
2021-02-08
Buy and hold?
从历史数据看今年美股四大趋势
从许多指标来看，今年股市回报率高于平均水平的可能性很大。 预测股市未来的表现很难，但富达投资(Fidelity Investments)分析师丹妮斯·奇斯霍尔姆(Denise Chisholm)有一
从历史数据看今年美股四大趋势
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8%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/444a4b3fbd9bd94ddb1ef48464328d8e\" tg-width=\"691\" tg-height=\"498\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Sundial Growers Files For Stock Shelf Of Up To 98.33 Mln Common Shares By Selling Shareholder.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136459317","content_text":"(March 4) Sundial Growers plunged more than 8%.Sundial Growers Files For Stock Shelf Of Up To 98.33 Mln Common Shares By Selling 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title> Stocks are flat as market struggles to rebound from back-to-back losses</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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class=\"title\">\n Stocks are flat as market struggles to rebound from back-to-back losses\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-04 22:32 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/03/stock-market-open-to-close-news.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(March 4) U.S. stock index futures were trading near the flatline early Thursday, as a better-than-expected reading on weekly jobless claims supported sentiment on Wall Street.Futures contracts tied ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/03/stock-market-open-to-close-news.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/03/stock-market-open-to-close-news.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1109661138","content_text":"(March 4) U.S. stock index futures were trading near the flatline early Thursday, as a better-than-expected reading on weekly jobless claims supported sentiment on Wall Street.Futures contracts tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average pointed to a slight gain 30 points at the open. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat.First-time filings for unemployment insurance in the week ended Feb. 27 totaled 745,000, a touch below the Dow Jones estimate of 750,000,the Labor Department reported Thursday.Investors also awaited a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is set to join The Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit to talk about the economy later Thursday.Treasury yields, which have been keeping investors on edge in recent weeks, edged up once again. The benchmark10-year Treasury yieldtraded slightly higher at 1.47%. Last week, the rate soared to a high of 1.6% in a sudden move that sparked a big sell-off in stocks.Stocks posted heavy losses during Wednesday’s regular trading as rising bond yields spooked investors. The S&P 500 dipped 1.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 119 points, or 0.38%, lower. The Nasdaq Composite was the relative underperformer, falling 2.7% as tech names declined. The index is on track to post its third straight negative week — the longest weekly losing streak since September.Major averages started the week with a surge with the Dow jumping 600 points on Monday, but the rally failed to carry through amid lingering concerns about higher interest rates and tech valuations.“Our current strategy work suggests robust economic growth this year with a modest increase in inflation,” noted Scott Wren, senior global equity strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “In attempting to read the tea leaves, the steepening of the yield curve, in our opinion, reflects the market’s belief that growth and inflation should continue to move back toward appropriate levels as the pandemic eases. We view this as a positive for stocks and other risk assets, like commodities,” he added.During Wednesday’s session, one bright spot was companies tied to the economy’s reopening. Shares of airline and cruise line operators advanced after President Joe Biden said Tuesday that the U.S. will have enough Covid-19 vaccines for all adults by the end of May.Additional stimulus measures could also inject optimism into the market. The Senate is currently debating the $1.9 trillion relief packagepassed by the House on Saturday.“Our macro team sees the economy as spring-loaded given the vaccinations and additional stimulus,” Keith Lerner, Truist chief market strategist, wrote in a note to clients. “The ability and desire of the consumer to spend on services and experiences should lead to the best economic growth we have seen in over 35 years.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369337312,"gmtCreate":1614004152436,"gmtModify":1634551575910,"author":{"id":"3575186596526281","authorId":"3575186596526281","name":"6f55e400","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186596526281","authorIdStr":"3575186596526281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Slow market growth but it's the safest for now I guess 🤷🏽♂️","listText":"Slow market growth but it's the safest for now I guess 🤷🏽♂️","text":"Slow market growth but it's the safest for now I guess 🤷🏽♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369337312","repostId":"1155156489","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369331196,"gmtCreate":1614003769215,"gmtModify":1634551577161,"author":{"id":"3575186596526281","authorId":"3575186596526281","name":"6f55e400","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186596526281","authorIdStr":"3575186596526281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seems like a market retracement crash is about to happen.. 🤷🏽♂️","listText":"Seems like a market retracement crash is about to happen.. 🤷🏽♂️","text":"Seems like a market retracement crash is about to happen.. 🤷🏽♂️","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369331196","repostId":"1100241886","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100241886","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1613990937,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1100241886?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-22 18:48","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin slips sharply from record highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100241886","media":"Reuters","summary":"Bitcoin fell sharply on Monday after surging to a record $58,354 a day earlier, as a selloff in glob","content":"<p>Bitcoin fell sharply on Monday after surging to a record $58,354 a day earlier, as a selloff in global equities curbed risk appetite.</p>\n<p>The most popular cryptocurrency rallied over the weekend to record levels, almost doubling year-to-date. It hit a market capitalisation of $1 trillion on Friday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin’s gains have been fueled by signs it is gaining acceptance among mainstream investors and companies, from Tesla Inc and Mastercard Inc to BNY Mellon.</p>\n<p>It fell as much as 6% on Monday, and was last trading down 4.4% at $54,941. Rival cryptocurrency ether fell 7% to $1,798 after also hitting a record high on Saturday.</p>\n<p>Traders said the move was largely technical, and not tied to any particular news catalyst.</p>\n<p>“We did finally see some momentum gathering over the weekend, but weekend rallies haven’t been sustainable lately,” said Joseph Edwards of Enigma Securities, a cryptocurrency broker in London.</p>\n<p>“We do tend to think that there’s a good chance of a down week and small correction coming in off of this, although it does little to dull medium-term prospects.”</p>\n<p>Tesla boss Elon Musk, whose tweets on bitcoin have added fuel to the cryptocurrency’s rally, said on Saturday the price of bitcoin and ethereum seemed high.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin slips sharply from record highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin slips sharply from record highs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-22 18:48</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bitcoin fell sharply on Monday after surging to a record $58,354 a day earlier, as a selloff in global equities curbed risk appetite.</p>\n<p>The most popular cryptocurrency rallied over the weekend to record levels, almost doubling year-to-date. It hit a market capitalisation of $1 trillion on Friday.</p>\n<p>Bitcoin’s gains have been fueled by signs it is gaining acceptance among mainstream investors and companies, from Tesla Inc and Mastercard Inc to BNY Mellon.</p>\n<p>It fell as much as 6% on Monday, and was last trading down 4.4% at $54,941. Rival cryptocurrency ether fell 7% to $1,798 after also hitting a record high on Saturday.</p>\n<p>Traders said the move was largely technical, and not tied to any particular news catalyst.</p>\n<p>“We did finally see some momentum gathering over the weekend, but weekend rallies haven’t been sustainable lately,” said Joseph Edwards of Enigma Securities, a cryptocurrency broker in London.</p>\n<p>“We do tend to think that there’s a good chance of a down week and small correction coming in off of this, although it does little to dull medium-term prospects.”</p>\n<p>Tesla boss Elon Musk, whose tweets on bitcoin have added fuel to the cryptocurrency’s rally, said on Saturday the price of bitcoin and ethereum seemed high.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100241886","content_text":"Bitcoin fell sharply on Monday after surging to a record $58,354 a day earlier, as a selloff in global equities curbed risk appetite.\nThe most popular cryptocurrency rallied over the weekend to record levels, almost doubling year-to-date. It hit a market capitalisation of $1 trillion on Friday.\nBitcoin’s gains have been fueled by signs it is gaining acceptance among mainstream investors and companies, from Tesla Inc and Mastercard Inc to BNY Mellon.\nIt fell as much as 6% on Monday, and was last trading down 4.4% at $54,941. Rival cryptocurrency ether fell 7% to $1,798 after also hitting a record high on Saturday.\nTraders said the move was largely technical, and not tied to any particular news catalyst.\n“We did finally see some momentum gathering over the weekend, but weekend rallies haven’t been sustainable lately,” said Joseph Edwards of Enigma Securities, a cryptocurrency broker in London.\n“We do tend to think that there’s a good chance of a down week and small correction coming in off of this, although it does little to dull medium-term prospects.”\nTesla boss Elon Musk, whose tweets on bitcoin have added fuel to the cryptocurrency’s rally, said on Saturday the price of bitcoin and ethereum seemed high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BTCmain":0.9,"XBTmain":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360841066,"gmtCreate":1613890934155,"gmtModify":1634551934360,"author":{"id":"3575186596526281","authorId":"3575186596526281","name":"6f55e400","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186596526281","authorIdStr":"3575186596526281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi guys I'm planning on buying this stock but why does it say delayed?","listText":"Hi guys I'm planning on buying this stock but why does it say delayed?","text":"Hi guys I'm planning on buying this stock but why does it say delayed?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab8e7549cd2460df46f39ea4d1e6f4a7","width":"720","height":"1674"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360841066","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":360843078,"gmtCreate":1613890708694,"gmtModify":1634551934973,"author":{"id":"3575186596526281","authorId":"3575186596526281","name":"6f55e400","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186596526281","authorIdStr":"3575186596526281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I'm contemplating on doing so because isn't the stock market going to have a retracement crash soon?","listText":"I'm contemplating on doing so because isn't the stock market going to have a retracement crash soon?","text":"I'm contemplating on doing so because isn't the stock market going to have a retracement crash soon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360843078","repostId":"1143100356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382777594,"gmtCreate":1613487204918,"gmtModify":1634553461711,"author":{"id":"3575186596526281","authorId":"3575186596526281","name":"6f55e400","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186596526281","authorIdStr":"3575186596526281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The dip in the market is shocking [惊讶] ","listText":"The dip in the market is shocking [惊讶] ","text":"The dip in the market is shocking [惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382777594","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":388741011,"gmtCreate":1613102025933,"gmtModify":1634554517402,"author":{"id":"3575186596526281","authorId":"3575186596526281","name":"6f55e400","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186596526281","authorIdStr":"3575186596526281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hey guys I'm planning to invest in penny stocks. What would you recommend me to do for those stocks. Buy and hold or Sell-short?","listText":"Hey guys I'm planning to invest in penny stocks. What would you recommend me to do for those stocks. Buy and hold or Sell-short?","text":"Hey guys I'm planning to invest in penny stocks. What would you recommend me to do for those stocks. Buy and hold or Sell-short?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388741011","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":426,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":381651395,"gmtCreate":1612964977317,"gmtModify":1703767558259,"author":{"id":"3575186596526281","authorId":"3575186596526281","name":"6f55e400","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186596526281","authorIdStr":"3575186596526281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is GME still having a possible bullish trend or a bearish ones? Any thoughts","listText":"Is GME still having a possible bullish trend or a bearish ones? Any thoughts","text":"Is GME still having a possible bullish trend or a bearish ones? Any thoughts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/381651395","repostId":"2110425090","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2110425090","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612949548,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2110425090?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-10 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Revives Fights Over Stock Tax, HFT Firms Buying Orders","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2110425090","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Leading Democrats are calling for tougher financial regulation\nChanging the rules could be difficult","content":"<ul>\n <li>Leading Democrats are calling for tougher financial regulation</li>\n <li>Changing the rules could be difficult in a divided Congress</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Frenzied trading of GameStop Corp.and other companies last month is reviving debate in Washington about changes that Wall Street has long opposed, including taxing stock purchases, banning brokerages from selling their customers’ orders and reining in short-selling.</p>\n<p>The ideas being floated by some Democratic lawmakers have long been on the wish lists of consumer advocates, who argue they would prevent financial firms from preyingon retail investors and curb the excessive speculation that’s transformed the stock market into a casino, rather than a place where companies raise money to grow their businesses. But industry executives counter that policy revamps often have unintended consequences and that a transaction tax would ultimately increase trading costs for all shareholders.</p>\n<p>The January tumult -- sparked by readers of Reddit’s WallStreetBets chat room and users of Robinhood Markets’ popular trading app -- will be examined by the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing next week and the Senate Banking Committee is planning to follow. While getting a rules overhaul through a bitterly divided Congress won’t be easy, here’s an overview from analysts, consumer advocates and other experts on what might be on the table:</p>\n<p><b>Payment for Order Flow</b></p>\n<p>At the heart of the zero-commission trading platforms offered by Robinhood and other online brokerages is so-called payment for order flow, in which the firms steer investor trades to high-volume market makers such as Citadel Securities in exchange for fees.</p>\n<p>The arrangements have helped expand access to stock markets by dramatically lowering costs for retail investors. Indeed, the free trades offered by Robinhood have become ubiquitous with competitors such as E*Trade Financial Corp.,Interactive Brokers Group Inc.and Charles Schwab Corp.all following suit.</p>\n<p>Citadel Securities,Virtu Financial Inc.and other firms that buy orders make money by taking advantage of minuscule price changes in the market -- seeking to almost instantaneously sell shares for more than they paid for them.</p>\n<p>Critics contend that payment for order flow can leave brokerages beholden to giant financial firms, including high-frequency traders, with their customers unaware of the potential conflicts. The Securities and Exchange Commission has also brought cases tied to the practice, including fining Robinhood $65 millionin December for allegedly failing to inform clients that it sold their orders -- claims that the firm didn’tadmitor deny.</p>\n<p>“Payment for order flow is essentially legalized bribery that creates conflict of interest that incentivize brokers to breach their duties to their clients,” said Better Markets Inc. Chief Executive Officer Dennis Kelleher, who wants to see it banned.</p>\n<p>Tyler Gellasch, a former Senate and SEC counsel who now leads the Healthy MarketsAssociation, offered a similarly caustic view.</p>\n<p>“In few other circumstances do we say, ‘Look on the one hand you have a duty to give customers the best prices; on the other hand you’re allowed to accept bribes and not pass it through, or even disclose to your customers how much they are,’” Gellasch said.</p>\n<p>But Graham Steele, a former Senate Banking Committee staff member who now leads the Corporations and Society Initiative at Stanford’s University’s Graduate School of Business, said challenges to payment for order flow have been raised in response to previous market disruptions, but lawmakers and the SEC have failed to find a way to address the problems it poses.</p>\n<p>“The same issues come up every time and there’s a reason that progress hasn’t been made,” Steele said. “A lot of the market participantsfeellike this is the worst option except for all the others.”</p>\n<p>One issue that might be particularly thorny for lawmakers who are skeptical of payment for order flow is that they probably have constituents who love trading stocks for free. Figuring out a way to boost safeguards while preserving that expectation for no-cost trades could be difficult.</p>\n<p>Financial Transaction Tax</p>\n<p>Discussion about imposing a tax on financial transactions dates back more than a decade, to when then-President Barack Obama’s administration thwarted plans for a levy that were advocated by congressional Democrats and the European Union after the 2008 financial crisis. More recently, Hillary Clinton campaigned for president in 2016 on a Democratic platform backing a transaction tax and Senator Bernie Sanders pushed the idea in his campaign for president last year.</p>\n<p>Transaction tax backers like Bartlett Naylor, a financial policy advocate for Public Citizen, say charging a few basis points every time a financial asset is traded would cut down on high-frequency trading and cause investors to think twice before making speculative bets. Opponents such as Tom Quaadman, who leads the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’ Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness, contend that such a tax would “increase the costs for pension funds and harm investors.”</p>\n<p>And even some supporters like Kelleher of Better Markets and Gellasch of Healthy Markets say a transaction tax wouldn’t have prevented the kind of wild trading that pushed GameStop shares to stratospheric levels.</p>\n<p>“I don’t think a financial transaction fee would have had any impact on the trading in the meme stocks,” Kelleher said, contending that the levels being proposed are too small to serve as a deterrent. Gellasch said high-frequency traders and other market intermediaries would simply pass their costs along to investors.</p>\n<p><b>Increased Disclosures for Short Sellers</b></p>\n<p>At present, hedge funds don’t have to disclose their positions when they bet against a company’s shares, as happened with GameStop. But should they be required to?</p>\n<p>Both Naylor of Public Citizen and Kelleher of Better Markets generally favor more regulation. “The world will not end if short-sellers have to disclose more information, because the world hasn’t ended in Europe,” Kelleher said.</p>\n<p>“Greater transparency there would be better for everybody,” Gellasch said. “It would also dispel some of the misinformation out there.”</p>\n<p>Gellasch added that there are nascent efforts in Congress to require more disclosure, but he cautioned against taking steps that would undermine what he and others see as the crucial role played by short-sellers in helping to keep share prices in line with a company’s potential earnings. That clearly got out of whack with GameStop, which closed as high as $347.51 a share last month despite not being expected to post a profit for years.</p>\n<p>“You do want to be careful, I don’t think you want to overcook it,” Gellasch said.</p>\n<p>Lynn Turner, a former SEC chief accountant, has argued that another issue lawmakers and regulators should examine is the size of short bets. Amid the GameStop frenzy, many market observers were shocked to learn that hedge funds and other professional investors had made bearish wagers against some companies that exceeded 100% of their stock, trading that Turner said looks like manipulation.</p>\n<p><b>What’s Next?</b></p>\n<p>The House plans to hold the first hearing on the GameStop mania Feb. 18. Payment for order flow, a tax on trades and short-selling rules will be debated significantly by lawmakers and witnesses, Gellasch predicts, with all three issues standing a good chance of being part of legislative proposals that emerge after the hearing.</p>\n<p>While a transaction tax requires action by Congress, Gellasch contends that the SEC already has authority to crack down on payments to brokers and to boost disclosure of short bets. But a demand from Capitol Hill -- or even lawmakers issuing a bill that never becomes law -- is often needed to get the agency to get moving on divisive policies, he said.</p>\n<p>“There’s a big difference between what they’re authorized to do and what they do,” Gellasch said. “Congressional legislation can sometimes nudge the SEC to do something.”</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Revives Fights Over Stock Tax, HFT Firms Buying Orders</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Revives Fights Over Stock Tax, HFT Firms Buying Orders\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-10 17:32 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-10/gamestop-revives-fights-over-stock-tax-hft-firms-buying-orders><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Leading Democrats are calling for tougher financial regulation\nChanging the rules could be difficult in a divided Congress\n\nFrenzied trading of GameStop Corp.and other companies last month is reviving...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-10/gamestop-revives-fights-over-stock-tax-hft-firms-buying-orders\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-10/gamestop-revives-fights-over-stock-tax-hft-firms-buying-orders","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2110425090","content_text":"Leading Democrats are calling for tougher financial regulation\nChanging the rules could be difficult in a divided Congress\n\nFrenzied trading of GameStop Corp.and other companies last month is reviving debate in Washington about changes that Wall Street has long opposed, including taxing stock purchases, banning brokerages from selling their customers’ orders and reining in short-selling.\nThe ideas being floated by some Democratic lawmakers have long been on the wish lists of consumer advocates, who argue they would prevent financial firms from preyingon retail investors and curb the excessive speculation that’s transformed the stock market into a casino, rather than a place where companies raise money to grow their businesses. But industry executives counter that policy revamps often have unintended consequences and that a transaction tax would ultimately increase trading costs for all shareholders.\nThe January tumult -- sparked by readers of Reddit’s WallStreetBets chat room and users of Robinhood Markets’ popular trading app -- will be examined by the House Financial Services Committee at a hearing next week and the Senate Banking Committee is planning to follow. While getting a rules overhaul through a bitterly divided Congress won’t be easy, here’s an overview from analysts, consumer advocates and other experts on what might be on the table:\nPayment for Order Flow\nAt the heart of the zero-commission trading platforms offered by Robinhood and other online brokerages is so-called payment for order flow, in which the firms steer investor trades to high-volume market makers such as Citadel Securities in exchange for fees.\nThe arrangements have helped expand access to stock markets by dramatically lowering costs for retail investors. Indeed, the free trades offered by Robinhood have become ubiquitous with competitors such as E*Trade Financial Corp.,Interactive Brokers Group Inc.and Charles Schwab Corp.all following suit.\nCitadel Securities,Virtu Financial Inc.and other firms that buy orders make money by taking advantage of minuscule price changes in the market -- seeking to almost instantaneously sell shares for more than they paid for them.\nCritics contend that payment for order flow can leave brokerages beholden to giant financial firms, including high-frequency traders, with their customers unaware of the potential conflicts. The Securities and Exchange Commission has also brought cases tied to the practice, including fining Robinhood $65 millionin December for allegedly failing to inform clients that it sold their orders -- claims that the firm didn’tadmitor deny.\n“Payment for order flow is essentially legalized bribery that creates conflict of interest that incentivize brokers to breach their duties to their clients,” said Better Markets Inc. Chief Executive Officer Dennis Kelleher, who wants to see it banned.\nTyler Gellasch, a former Senate and SEC counsel who now leads the Healthy MarketsAssociation, offered a similarly caustic view.\n“In few other circumstances do we say, ‘Look on the one hand you have a duty to give customers the best prices; on the other hand you’re allowed to accept bribes and not pass it through, or even disclose to your customers how much they are,’” Gellasch said.\nBut Graham Steele, a former Senate Banking Committee staff member who now leads the Corporations and Society Initiative at Stanford’s University’s Graduate School of Business, said challenges to payment for order flow have been raised in response to previous market disruptions, but lawmakers and the SEC have failed to find a way to address the problems it poses.\n“The same issues come up every time and there’s a reason that progress hasn’t been made,” Steele said. “A lot of the market participantsfeellike this is the worst option except for all the others.”\nOne issue that might be particularly thorny for lawmakers who are skeptical of payment for order flow is that they probably have constituents who love trading stocks for free. Figuring out a way to boost safeguards while preserving that expectation for no-cost trades could be difficult.\nFinancial Transaction Tax\nDiscussion about imposing a tax on financial transactions dates back more than a decade, to when then-President Barack Obama’s administration thwarted plans for a levy that were advocated by congressional Democrats and the European Union after the 2008 financial crisis. More recently, Hillary Clinton campaigned for president in 2016 on a Democratic platform backing a transaction tax and Senator Bernie Sanders pushed the idea in his campaign for president last year.\nTransaction tax backers like Bartlett Naylor, a financial policy advocate for Public Citizen, say charging a few basis points every time a financial asset is traded would cut down on high-frequency trading and cause investors to think twice before making speculative bets. Opponents such as Tom Quaadman, who leads the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’ Center for Capital Markets Competitiveness, contend that such a tax would “increase the costs for pension funds and harm investors.”\nAnd even some supporters like Kelleher of Better Markets and Gellasch of Healthy Markets say a transaction tax wouldn’t have prevented the kind of wild trading that pushed GameStop shares to stratospheric levels.\n“I don’t think a financial transaction fee would have had any impact on the trading in the meme stocks,” Kelleher said, contending that the levels being proposed are too small to serve as a deterrent. Gellasch said high-frequency traders and other market intermediaries would simply pass their costs along to investors.\nIncreased Disclosures for Short Sellers\nAt present, hedge funds don’t have to disclose their positions when they bet against a company’s shares, as happened with GameStop. But should they be required to?\nBoth Naylor of Public Citizen and Kelleher of Better Markets generally favor more regulation. “The world will not end if short-sellers have to disclose more information, because the world hasn’t ended in Europe,” Kelleher said.\n“Greater transparency there would be better for everybody,” Gellasch said. “It would also dispel some of the misinformation out there.”\nGellasch added that there are nascent efforts in Congress to require more disclosure, but he cautioned against taking steps that would undermine what he and others see as the crucial role played by short-sellers in helping to keep share prices in line with a company’s potential earnings. That clearly got out of whack with GameStop, which closed as high as $347.51 a share last month despite not being expected to post a profit for years.\n“You do want to be careful, I don’t think you want to overcook it,” Gellasch said.\nLynn Turner, a former SEC chief accountant, has argued that another issue lawmakers and regulators should examine is the size of short bets. Amid the GameStop frenzy, many market observers were shocked to learn that hedge funds and other professional investors had made bearish wagers against some companies that exceeded 100% of their stock, trading that Turner said looks like manipulation.\nWhat’s Next?\nThe House plans to hold the first hearing on the GameStop mania Feb. 18. Payment for order flow, a tax on trades and short-selling rules will be debated significantly by lawmakers and witnesses, Gellasch predicts, with all three issues standing a good chance of being part of legislative proposals that emerge after the hearing.\nWhile a transaction tax requires action by Congress, Gellasch contends that the SEC already has authority to crack down on payments to brokers and to boost disclosure of short bets. But a demand from Capitol Hill -- or even lawmakers issuing a bill that never becomes law -- is often needed to get the agency to get moving on divisive policies, he said.\n“There’s a big difference between what they’re authorized to do and what they do,” Gellasch said. “Congressional legislation can sometimes nudge the SEC to do something.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389490344,"gmtCreate":1612793370888,"gmtModify":1703765096662,"author":{"id":"3575186596526281","authorId":"3575186596526281","name":"6f55e400","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575186596526281","authorIdStr":"3575186596526281"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy and hold?","listText":"Buy and hold?","text":"Buy and hold?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389490344","repostId":"1179703692","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179703692","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团，引入百年历史的《巴伦》（Barron's）独家内容，打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"巴伦周刊","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1612764491,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1179703692?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 14:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从历史数据看今年美股四大趋势","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179703692","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"从许多指标来看，今年股市回报率高于平均水平的可能性很大。\n\n预测股市未来的表现很难，但富达投资(Fidelity Investments)分析师丹妮斯·奇斯霍尔姆(Denise Chisholm)有一","content":"<blockquote>\n 从许多指标来看，今年股市回报率高于平均水平的可能性很大。\n</blockquote>\n<p>预测股市未来的表现很难，但富达投资(Fidelity Investments)分析师丹妮斯·奇斯霍尔姆(Denise Chisholm)有一种很有效的办法。</p>\n<p>为了预测股市未来的曲折走势，奇斯霍尔姆深入研究了历史数据，发现了一些各种市场和经济因素是如何相互作用的模式。通过统计分析，她预测出接下来12到18个月股市可能发生的事。</p>\n<p>从数据来看，2021年股市将继续上涨，但期间会出现大量波动。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆说，“从许多指标来看，今年股市回报率高于平均水平的可能性很大。“她在股市很多目前令投资者不安的领域都发现了一些积极迹象。</p>\n<p>衡量股市波动水平的VIX指数去年年底大幅上升，奇斯霍尔姆指出，自1990年以来，在VIX指数飙升之后，股市接下来12个月的回报都非常高。在该指数升至如此高水平后的12个月里，90%的时间里回报率都为正值，平均回报率达到23％。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆说，信贷息差对一些投资者来说是另一个威胁，上季度信贷息差持续收紧，现在处于历史区间低端。她表示，这可能会引发有关股市已经涨太多、可能要开始下跌的担忧。</p>\n<p>但奇斯霍尔姆认为，“这对股市其实是一个好兆头。”自1987年以来，当信贷息差收紧时，股市12个月的平均回报率最高（12%），而信贷息差较宽时，股市回报率最低（2％）。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆还在股市内部发现了一些预测指标。“投资者卖出他们认为有风险的股票并竞购他们认为安全的股票导致股票之间的估值差很大，这是投资者担忧情绪的一种表现，这一现象在当前周期中一直存在，”她说，“而相对于大盘和历史水平，风险最高的股票仍然显得便宜，这些现象证明了信贷指标的可靠性，为2021年股市的走势奠定了坚实的背景。”</p>\n<p>此外，在经历了去年疫情暴发、股市回落、经济陷入衰退后，投资者对不确定性的担忧还没有消失。</p>\n<p><b>整体看涨，波动增多</b></p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆指出，我们没有办法对未知因素进行统计分析，黑天鹅事件总是有可能发生，但历史可以为一些已知的不确定性提供参考。比如税收政策，如果拜登执政期间税率上升会给股市带来什么样的影响？奇斯霍尔姆称，从历史数据来看，1950年以来有13年政策上调了税率，标普500指数在这些年里的回报率比9%的平均水平高出2到5个百分点。</p>\n<p>至于政治因素如何影响2021年的股市，实际上很难判断执政权从共和党转向民主党会具体带来什么影响。奇斯霍尔姆表示，最近的政府交接在一定程度上减少了一些不确定性，这对股市来说是一个利好，确定性总是受欢迎的。</p>\n<p><b>她称，虽然上述两点结合来看2021年股市前景不错，但历史表明今年股市在上涨的同时也会伴随不少波动。</b></p>\n<p>自1990年以来，每当VIX指数像去年年底那样达到历史区间高端时，标普500指数每月回报率的平均标准差（衡量波动性的指标）一直处于高水平，为3.1%。奇斯霍尔姆引用的数据显示，相比之下，当VIX指数降至历史区间低端时，该指数每月回报率的平均标准差为1.6%。</p>\n<p>要想让概率分析更可靠，输入所有统计相关的因素是关键。奇斯霍尔姆说，“这是一门艺术，而不是科学，当因素触及极端时概率较高，但并非所有数据指标都在极端附近，在研究哪些因素在历史上是重要的、哪些因素现在是极端的、以及这意味着什么时，我们需要大量的证据。”</p>\n<p><b>在周期性板块寻找机会</b></p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆深入挖掘了板块历史的趋势，发现了<b>科技股前景持续向好的原因——尽管估值很高，但基本面强劲</b>。</p>\n<p>她<b>看涨金融、医疗保健、工业、非必需消费品等周期股，尤其看好能源股</b>，这些股票糟糕的基本面很可能已经反映在了股价中。去年第四季度能源股出现的反弹势头可能会持续，原因是估值较低，而且近年来能源公司大幅减少了资本支出占销售额的比例。</p>\n<p>从历史上看，当资本支出占销售额的比例较高时，能源股一般都会跑输大盘，而当支出水平较低时能够跑赢大盘。奇斯霍尔姆称，在减少支出的同时，如果经济复苏，能源公司的销售额会增加时，跑赢势头也会更明显。</p>\n<p>她还建议<b>减持消费必须品、公用事业和房地产等板块</b>。</p>\n<p><b>小盘股可能跑赢</b></p>\n<p>在经济出现衰退之后，小盘股在70%的时间里跑赢，但自去年3月份股市大幅下滑以来，小盘股一直落后于大盘股。奇斯霍尔姆说，如果以史为鉴，在经济复苏之际中小盘股的收益会提高，跑输大盘股的情况极有可能发生变化。</p>\n<p>1990年以来，小盘股盈利增长乏力，自由现金流也表现不佳。奇斯霍尔姆指出，<b>小盘股指数罗素2000在经历了一段时间的盈利增长乏力后跑赢标普500指数的几率为58%，如果计入低估值这一因素，这一概率会提高到83%。而当这些因素同时起作用时，小盘股跑赢的几率会超过100%</b>。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆说，“从历史数据来看，小盘股估值很低和盈利加速增长这两种情况不常同时出现，但从经济周期来看，当这两种情况确实同时出现时，小盘股跑赢的几率超过了70%，这为2021年小盘股的走势提供了一个参考。”</p>\n<p><b>价值股可能上扬</b></p>\n<p>从历史数据看，<b>当硬资产（而非技术等软资产）的资本支出在一段增长缓慢的时期后重新加速时，价值股跑赢大盘的可能性会上升。“目前情况正是这样</b>，”奇斯霍尔姆说。</p>\n<p>她表示，“与整体经济增长相比，这种资本支出的加速增长对价值股估值的影响更大。从历史数据看，经济复苏并不是提振价值股的最大因素，只有当盈利加速增长时（2021年很可能出现这种情况），估值上升的可能性才更大。”</p>\n<p>至于2021年股市是否会大幅回落，投资者不必过于担心。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆说，“股市回调是无法改变的事实，自1960年以来，60%的年份里股市出现过5%到15%幅度的回调，但在75%的年份里都是上涨的。<b>问题的关键不是回调是否会发生（回调肯定会发生），对投资者来说，最重要的是当发生回调时该采取什么样的行动。从我观察的指标来看，目前股市的风险回报仍然是有吸引力的</b>。”</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>从历史数据看今年美股四大趋势</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从历史数据看今年美股四大趋势\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">巴伦周刊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-02-08 14:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 从许多指标来看，今年股市回报率高于平均水平的可能性很大。\n</blockquote>\n<p>预测股市未来的表现很难，但富达投资(Fidelity Investments)分析师丹妮斯·奇斯霍尔姆(Denise Chisholm)有一种很有效的办法。</p>\n<p>为了预测股市未来的曲折走势，奇斯霍尔姆深入研究了历史数据，发现了一些各种市场和经济因素是如何相互作用的模式。通过统计分析，她预测出接下来12到18个月股市可能发生的事。</p>\n<p>从数据来看，2021年股市将继续上涨，但期间会出现大量波动。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆说，“从许多指标来看，今年股市回报率高于平均水平的可能性很大。“她在股市很多目前令投资者不安的领域都发现了一些积极迹象。</p>\n<p>衡量股市波动水平的VIX指数去年年底大幅上升，奇斯霍尔姆指出，自1990年以来，在VIX指数飙升之后，股市接下来12个月的回报都非常高。在该指数升至如此高水平后的12个月里，90%的时间里回报率都为正值，平均回报率达到23％。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆说，信贷息差对一些投资者来说是另一个威胁，上季度信贷息差持续收紧，现在处于历史区间低端。她表示，这可能会引发有关股市已经涨太多、可能要开始下跌的担忧。</p>\n<p>但奇斯霍尔姆认为，“这对股市其实是一个好兆头。”自1987年以来，当信贷息差收紧时，股市12个月的平均回报率最高（12%），而信贷息差较宽时，股市回报率最低（2％）。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆还在股市内部发现了一些预测指标。“投资者卖出他们认为有风险的股票并竞购他们认为安全的股票导致股票之间的估值差很大，这是投资者担忧情绪的一种表现，这一现象在当前周期中一直存在，”她说，“而相对于大盘和历史水平，风险最高的股票仍然显得便宜，这些现象证明了信贷指标的可靠性，为2021年股市的走势奠定了坚实的背景。”</p>\n<p>此外，在经历了去年疫情暴发、股市回落、经济陷入衰退后，投资者对不确定性的担忧还没有消失。</p>\n<p><b>整体看涨，波动增多</b></p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆指出，我们没有办法对未知因素进行统计分析，黑天鹅事件总是有可能发生，但历史可以为一些已知的不确定性提供参考。比如税收政策，如果拜登执政期间税率上升会给股市带来什么样的影响？奇斯霍尔姆称，从历史数据来看，1950年以来有13年政策上调了税率，标普500指数在这些年里的回报率比9%的平均水平高出2到5个百分点。</p>\n<p>至于政治因素如何影响2021年的股市，实际上很难判断执政权从共和党转向民主党会具体带来什么影响。奇斯霍尔姆表示，最近的政府交接在一定程度上减少了一些不确定性，这对股市来说是一个利好，确定性总是受欢迎的。</p>\n<p><b>她称，虽然上述两点结合来看2021年股市前景不错，但历史表明今年股市在上涨的同时也会伴随不少波动。</b></p>\n<p>自1990年以来，每当VIX指数像去年年底那样达到历史区间高端时，标普500指数每月回报率的平均标准差（衡量波动性的指标）一直处于高水平，为3.1%。奇斯霍尔姆引用的数据显示，相比之下，当VIX指数降至历史区间低端时，该指数每月回报率的平均标准差为1.6%。</p>\n<p>要想让概率分析更可靠，输入所有统计相关的因素是关键。奇斯霍尔姆说，“这是一门艺术，而不是科学，当因素触及极端时概率较高，但并非所有数据指标都在极端附近，在研究哪些因素在历史上是重要的、哪些因素现在是极端的、以及这意味着什么时，我们需要大量的证据。”</p>\n<p><b>在周期性板块寻找机会</b></p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆深入挖掘了板块历史的趋势，发现了<b>科技股前景持续向好的原因——尽管估值很高，但基本面强劲</b>。</p>\n<p>她<b>看涨金融、医疗保健、工业、非必需消费品等周期股，尤其看好能源股</b>，这些股票糟糕的基本面很可能已经反映在了股价中。去年第四季度能源股出现的反弹势头可能会持续，原因是估值较低，而且近年来能源公司大幅减少了资本支出占销售额的比例。</p>\n<p>从历史上看，当资本支出占销售额的比例较高时，能源股一般都会跑输大盘，而当支出水平较低时能够跑赢大盘。奇斯霍尔姆称，在减少支出的同时，如果经济复苏，能源公司的销售额会增加时，跑赢势头也会更明显。</p>\n<p>她还建议<b>减持消费必须品、公用事业和房地产等板块</b>。</p>\n<p><b>小盘股可能跑赢</b></p>\n<p>在经济出现衰退之后，小盘股在70%的时间里跑赢，但自去年3月份股市大幅下滑以来，小盘股一直落后于大盘股。奇斯霍尔姆说，如果以史为鉴，在经济复苏之际中小盘股的收益会提高，跑输大盘股的情况极有可能发生变化。</p>\n<p>1990年以来，小盘股盈利增长乏力，自由现金流也表现不佳。奇斯霍尔姆指出，<b>小盘股指数罗素2000在经历了一段时间的盈利增长乏力后跑赢标普500指数的几率为58%，如果计入低估值这一因素，这一概率会提高到83%。而当这些因素同时起作用时，小盘股跑赢的几率会超过100%</b>。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆说，“从历史数据来看，小盘股估值很低和盈利加速增长这两种情况不常同时出现，但从经济周期来看，当这两种情况确实同时出现时，小盘股跑赢的几率超过了70%，这为2021年小盘股的走势提供了一个参考。”</p>\n<p><b>价值股可能上扬</b></p>\n<p>从历史数据看，<b>当硬资产（而非技术等软资产）的资本支出在一段增长缓慢的时期后重新加速时，价值股跑赢大盘的可能性会上升。“目前情况正是这样</b>，”奇斯霍尔姆说。</p>\n<p>她表示，“与整体经济增长相比，这种资本支出的加速增长对价值股估值的影响更大。从历史数据看，经济复苏并不是提振价值股的最大因素，只有当盈利加速增长时（2021年很可能出现这种情况），估值上升的可能性才更大。”</p>\n<p>至于2021年股市是否会大幅回落，投资者不必过于担心。</p>\n<p>奇斯霍尔姆说，“股市回调是无法改变的事实，自1960年以来，60%的年份里股市出现过5%到15%幅度的回调，但在75%的年份里都是上涨的。<b>问题的关键不是回调是否会发生（回调肯定会发生），对投资者来说，最重要的是当发生回调时该采取什么样的行动。从我观察的指标来看，目前股市的风险回报仍然是有吸引力的</b>。”</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e54cdec0463b583da260da1ed3f050b1","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179703692","content_text":"从许多指标来看，今年股市回报率高于平均水平的可能性很大。\n\n预测股市未来的表现很难，但富达投资(Fidelity Investments)分析师丹妮斯·奇斯霍尔姆(Denise Chisholm)有一种很有效的办法。\n为了预测股市未来的曲折走势，奇斯霍尔姆深入研究了历史数据，发现了一些各种市场和经济因素是如何相互作用的模式。通过统计分析，她预测出接下来12到18个月股市可能发生的事。\n从数据来看，2021年股市将继续上涨，但期间会出现大量波动。\n奇斯霍尔姆说，“从许多指标来看，今年股市回报率高于平均水平的可能性很大。“她在股市很多目前令投资者不安的领域都发现了一些积极迹象。\n衡量股市波动水平的VIX指数去年年底大幅上升，奇斯霍尔姆指出，自1990年以来，在VIX指数飙升之后，股市接下来12个月的回报都非常高。在该指数升至如此高水平后的12个月里，90%的时间里回报率都为正值，平均回报率达到23％。\n奇斯霍尔姆说，信贷息差对一些投资者来说是另一个威胁，上季度信贷息差持续收紧，现在处于历史区间低端。她表示，这可能会引发有关股市已经涨太多、可能要开始下跌的担忧。\n但奇斯霍尔姆认为，“这对股市其实是一个好兆头。”自1987年以来，当信贷息差收紧时，股市12个月的平均回报率最高（12%），而信贷息差较宽时，股市回报率最低（2％）。\n奇斯霍尔姆还在股市内部发现了一些预测指标。“投资者卖出他们认为有风险的股票并竞购他们认为安全的股票导致股票之间的估值差很大，这是投资者担忧情绪的一种表现，这一现象在当前周期中一直存在，”她说，“而相对于大盘和历史水平，风险最高的股票仍然显得便宜，这些现象证明了信贷指标的可靠性，为2021年股市的走势奠定了坚实的背景。”\n此外，在经历了去年疫情暴发、股市回落、经济陷入衰退后，投资者对不确定性的担忧还没有消失。\n整体看涨，波动增多\n奇斯霍尔姆指出，我们没有办法对未知因素进行统计分析，黑天鹅事件总是有可能发生，但历史可以为一些已知的不确定性提供参考。比如税收政策，如果拜登执政期间税率上升会给股市带来什么样的影响？奇斯霍尔姆称，从历史数据来看，1950年以来有13年政策上调了税率，标普500指数在这些年里的回报率比9%的平均水平高出2到5个百分点。\n至于政治因素如何影响2021年的股市，实际上很难判断执政权从共和党转向民主党会具体带来什么影响。奇斯霍尔姆表示，最近的政府交接在一定程度上减少了一些不确定性，这对股市来说是一个利好，确定性总是受欢迎的。\n她称，虽然上述两点结合来看2021年股市前景不错，但历史表明今年股市在上涨的同时也会伴随不少波动。\n自1990年以来，每当VIX指数像去年年底那样达到历史区间高端时，标普500指数每月回报率的平均标准差（衡量波动性的指标）一直处于高水平，为3.1%。奇斯霍尔姆引用的数据显示，相比之下，当VIX指数降至历史区间低端时，该指数每月回报率的平均标准差为1.6%。\n要想让概率分析更可靠，输入所有统计相关的因素是关键。奇斯霍尔姆说，“这是一门艺术，而不是科学，当因素触及极端时概率较高，但并非所有数据指标都在极端附近，在研究哪些因素在历史上是重要的、哪些因素现在是极端的、以及这意味着什么时，我们需要大量的证据。”\n在周期性板块寻找机会\n奇斯霍尔姆深入挖掘了板块历史的趋势，发现了科技股前景持续向好的原因——尽管估值很高，但基本面强劲。\n她看涨金融、医疗保健、工业、非必需消费品等周期股，尤其看好能源股，这些股票糟糕的基本面很可能已经反映在了股价中。去年第四季度能源股出现的反弹势头可能会持续，原因是估值较低，而且近年来能源公司大幅减少了资本支出占销售额的比例。\n从历史上看，当资本支出占销售额的比例较高时，能源股一般都会跑输大盘，而当支出水平较低时能够跑赢大盘。奇斯霍尔姆称，在减少支出的同时，如果经济复苏，能源公司的销售额会增加时，跑赢势头也会更明显。\n她还建议减持消费必须品、公用事业和房地产等板块。\n小盘股可能跑赢\n在经济出现衰退之后，小盘股在70%的时间里跑赢，但自去年3月份股市大幅下滑以来，小盘股一直落后于大盘股。奇斯霍尔姆说，如果以史为鉴，在经济复苏之际中小盘股的收益会提高，跑输大盘股的情况极有可能发生变化。\n1990年以来，小盘股盈利增长乏力，自由现金流也表现不佳。奇斯霍尔姆指出，小盘股指数罗素2000在经历了一段时间的盈利增长乏力后跑赢标普500指数的几率为58%，如果计入低估值这一因素，这一概率会提高到83%。而当这些因素同时起作用时，小盘股跑赢的几率会超过100%。\n奇斯霍尔姆说，“从历史数据来看，小盘股估值很低和盈利加速增长这两种情况不常同时出现，但从经济周期来看，当这两种情况确实同时出现时，小盘股跑赢的几率超过了70%，这为2021年小盘股的走势提供了一个参考。”\n价值股可能上扬\n从历史数据看，当硬资产（而非技术等软资产）的资本支出在一段增长缓慢的时期后重新加速时，价值股跑赢大盘的可能性会上升。“目前情况正是这样，”奇斯霍尔姆说。\n她表示，“与整体经济增长相比，这种资本支出的加速增长对价值股估值的影响更大。从历史数据看，经济复苏并不是提振价值股的最大因素，只有当盈利加速增长时（2021年很可能出现这种情况），估值上升的可能性才更大。”\n至于2021年股市是否会大幅回落，投资者不必过于担心。\n奇斯霍尔姆说，“股市回调是无法改变的事实，自1960年以来，60%的年份里股市出现过5%到15%幅度的回调，但在75%的年份里都是上涨的。问题的关键不是回调是否会发生（回调肯定会发生），对投资者来说，最重要的是当发生回调时该采取什么样的行动。从我观察的指标来看，目前股市的风险回报仍然是有吸引力的。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}