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- DanieloyxDanieloyx
  ·2021-02-09
  Waiting for the market to bill again
  Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>
  There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop Look who’s back. After a long absence, active indiv
  Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>
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- DanieloyxDanieloyx
  ·2021-02-09
  Enter and exit at the right time is important. For hyper stocks never be those last batch to enter
  Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>
  This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers
  Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>
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for the market to bill again","listText":"Waiting for the market to bill again","text":"Waiting for the market to bill again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383084040","repostId":"1105339151","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105339151","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612778898,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105339151?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105339151","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active indiv","content":"<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业的复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站公司GME(+19.20%)股票的极快和鲁莽的交易活动占据了头条新闻，但零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续，以及随着美国基准指数的上涨，这对股市意味着什么，这些问题仍然悬而未决。三月创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>复出</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经等了很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>RiverFront Investment Group首席投资策略师克里斯·康斯坦丁诺斯(Chris Konstantinos)在接受采访时表示，过去十年股市出现了历史性反弹，“但散户对此没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，事实上，个人投资者似乎对从房地产到加密货币的几乎所有其他东西都感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着冠状病毒大流行的蔓延，一种转变开始了。Lori表示，2020年第二季度末，嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%等迎合个人投资者的经纪商的账户环比增长“令人瞩目”，随后在接下来的一个季度出现大幅增长。加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)在2月2日的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌上“日内交易”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查的结合可能在个人投资兴趣的上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Ned Davis Research Group首席美国策略师Ed Clissold在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续还没有定论。他说，目前尚不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博而不是投资，并指出“泡沫”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举买入并听取Reddit WallStreetBets论坛上坚持己见的日内交易者将遭受惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但其他人则认为，许多个人投资者可能会留下来，他们的队伍不仅仅是快速的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构性变化”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑“结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者未来可能仍将是美国股市中更大的参与者。”</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使个人投资者在很大程度上与分析师炮制市场预测无关。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的公司股价飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方平仓多头头寸，以获利了结并弥补损失，给股市带来压力。主要基准指数1月份收盘表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA上涨0.30%，标准普尔500SPX上涨0.39%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.57%，创下10月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市在过去一周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，而游戏驿站则暴跌超过80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。”“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以访问廉价的平台。”</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，幽居病并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些以前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念，即债券和其他领域的超低收益率除了股市之外别无选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或盈利收益率而言，股票看起来仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，过去几十年来，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境是公平的。他表示，FD监管（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起使个人投资者“比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者称为“愚蠢的钱”的传统品牌看起来越来越被误导，特别是在游戏驿站事件显示所谓的“聪明的钱”投资者做空了该公司100%以上的股票之后，他们陷入了困境。痛苦的轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，个人投资者在过去一年中进行的一些更知名的交易——在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压——来自过去十年，机构投资者基本上放弃了增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自3月23日低点以来，无论是小盘股还是大盘股，被高度做空的股票的表现都优于市场，这种发展通常发生在市场陷入衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他一些被严重做空的小盘股的空头挤压的散户交易的狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找泡沫，这表明反弹正在进入欣快阶段。阶段通常会出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一站？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，活跃的个人投资兴趣持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续激发对更具价值导向、市值较小、波动性较高的股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克里索尔德表示，对个别证券的持续兴趣可能意味着个股和行业之间回报的更多“分散”或差异——这是过去十年中让主动型基金经理痛苦的缺失因素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，散户对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年那样潮起潮落，但可能不会消失。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>她写道：“除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则考虑到消费者的观望现金水平大幅提高，我们不明白为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Individual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIndividual investors are back — here’s what it means for the stock market<blockquote>个人投资者回来了——这对股市意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop</p><p><blockquote>零售业的复兴不仅仅是游戏驿站</blockquote></p><p> Look who’s back.</p><p><blockquote>看看谁回来了。</blockquote></p><p> After a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.</p><p><blockquote>久违之后，活跃的个人投资者又回来了。尽管游戏驿站公司GME(+19.20%)股票的极快和鲁莽的交易活动占据了头条新闻，但零售交易的更广泛复苏是否会持续，以及随着美国基准指数的上涨，这对股市意味着什么，这些问题仍然悬而未决。三月创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The comeback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>复出</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s been a long time coming.</p><p><blockquote>已经等了很久了。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.</p><p><blockquote>RiverFront Investment Group首席投资策略师克里斯·康斯坦丁诺斯(Chris Konstantinos)在接受采访时表示，过去十年股市出现了历史性反弹，“但散户对此没有任何明显的兴趣”。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，自2007年以来，债券资金流量总额已超过股票流量近3万亿美元。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，事实上，个人投资者似乎对从房地产到加密货币的几乎所有其他东西都感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> A shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.</p><p><blockquote>去年，随着冠状病毒大流行的蔓延，一种转变开始了。Lori表示，2020年第二季度末，嘉信理财(Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%等迎合个人投资者的经纪商的账户环比增长“令人瞩目”，随后在接下来的一个季度出现大幅增长。加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)在2月2日的一份报告中。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).</p><p><blockquote>她指出，与此同时，谷歌上“日内交易”的搜索量也在上升（见下图）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/abaf0f0e954b8c180c43870b72f55252\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"655\"><span>RBC CAPITAL MARKETS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>加拿大皇家银行资本市场</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳和其他人承认，与封锁相关的无聊和美国政府的刺激检查的结合可能在个人投资兴趣的上升中发挥了作用。</blockquote></p><p> The jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Ned Davis Research Group首席美国策略师Ed Clissold在接受采访时表示，这种热情是否会持续还没有定论。他说，目前尚不清楚零售交易的回升有多少仅仅反映了个人通过刺激支票向市场投入额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> That sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.</p><p><blockquote>他说，这种交易感觉更像是赌博而不是投资，并指出“泡沫”市场行为往往会很快消失。</blockquote></p><p> No doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，那些在游戏驿站反弹中大举买入并听取Reddit WallStreetBets论坛上坚持己见的日内交易者将遭受惨重的损失。一些市场观察人士担心，所谓模因股票的泡沫般的活动最终可能会吓跑个人投资者，将任何复苏扼杀在萌芽状态。</blockquote></p><p> But others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.</p><p><blockquote>但其他人则认为，许多个人投资者可能会留下来，他们的队伍不仅仅是快速的日内交易者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Structural change’</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“结构性变化”</b></blockquote></p><p> Calvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示，加拿大皇家银行怀疑“结构性变化可能正在发生，散户投资者未来可能仍将是美国股市中更大的参与者。”</blockquote></p><p> If so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>如果是这样，这将需要华尔街专业人士调整态度，他们习惯于很少关注个人投资者。</blockquote></p><p> After all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行策略师在周四的一份报告中写道，毕竟，强大的被动和系统性投资浪潮使个人投资者在很大程度上与分析师炮制市场预测无关。</blockquote></p><p> But the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，游戏驿站局势造成的市场波动是一个唤醒看涨期权。</blockquote></p><p> While GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.</p><p><blockquote>尽管游戏驿站和其他被严重做空的公司股价飙升，但对冲基金和其他投资者却在其他地方平仓多头头寸，以获利了结并弥补损失，给股市带来压力。主要基准指数1月份收盘表现不佳，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA上涨0.30%，标准普尔500SPX上涨0.39%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨0.57%，创下10月份以来的最大单周跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国股市在过去一周大幅反弹，标普500和纳斯达克指数创下历史新高，而游戏驿站则暴跌超过80%。</blockquote></p><p> The SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.</p><p><blockquote>法国兴业银行分析师表示，散户对市场兴趣的增加是更广泛趋势的一部分，个人投资者推动了对考虑环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）标准的投资的需求。</blockquote></p><p> “Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”</p><p><blockquote>他们写道：“与其批评散户投资者及其行为模式，不如将他们纳入金钱等式。”“毕竟，下雪天被锁在家里的不仅是上班族，还有非常活跃的日内交易者，他们可以访问廉价的平台。”</blockquote></p><p> Cabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，幽居病并不是推动个人投资者对市场重新产生兴趣的唯一因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Leveling the field</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平整场地</b></blockquote></p><p> Some individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>一些以前回避股票的个人投资者可能最终会屈服于这样一种观念，即债券和其他领域的超低收益率除了股市之外别无选择。康斯坦丁诺斯表示，就股息或盈利收益率而言，股票看起来仍然具有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>此外，过去几十年来，机构投资者和个人投资者之间的竞争环境是公平的。他表示，FD监管（“全面披露”）和其他监管变化以及低费用交易平台的兴起使个人投资者“比历史上任何时候都更接近机构投资者”。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，一些市场观察人士认为，将个人投资者称为“愚蠢的钱”的传统品牌看起来越来越被误导，特别是在游戏驿站事件显示所谓的“聪明的钱”投资者做空了该公司100%以上的股票之后，他们陷入了困境。痛苦的轧空。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳指出，个人投资者在过去一年中进行的一些更知名的交易——在经济衰退中购买股票、去年夏天购买航空公司和邮轮公司以及今年冬天实施空头挤压——来自过去十年，机构投资者基本上放弃了增长、动量和质量投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> On that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.</p><p><blockquote>她指出，在这一点上，自3月23日低点以来，无论是小盘股还是大盘股，被高度做空的股票的表现都优于市场，这种发展通常发生在市场陷入衰退中期低点之后。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，围绕游戏驿站和其他一些被严重做空的小盘股的空头挤压的散户交易的狂热向投资者发出了危险信号，他们正在寻找泡沫，这表明反弹正在进入欣快阶段。阶段通常会出现回调。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Next leg?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>下一站？</b></blockquote></p><p> While that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.</p><p><blockquote>虽然短期内情况可能会如此，但一些投资者认为，活跃的个人投资兴趣持续回升可能有助于推动牛市的下一阶段。</blockquote></p><p> Individual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.</p><p><blockquote>康斯坦丁诺斯表示，个人投资者可能会继续激发对更具价值导向、市值较小、波动性较高的股票的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> And sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.</p><p><blockquote>克里索尔德表示，对个别证券的持续兴趣可能意味着个股和行业之间回报的更多“分散”或差异——这是过去十年中让主动型基金经理痛苦的缺失因素。</blockquote></p><p> Calvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳认为，散户对特定股票的兴趣可能会像过去一年那样潮起潮落，但可能不会消失。</blockquote></p><p> “Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>她写道：“除非大门关闭（即通过重大监管变化），否则考虑到消费者的观望现金水平大幅提高，我们不明白为什么散户投资者对交易特定名称的兴趣会完全消失。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/individual-investors-are-back-heres-what-it-means-for-the-stock-market-11612557558?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1105339151","content_text":"There’s more to the retail revival than GameStop\nLook who’s back.\nAfter a long absence, active individual investors have returned. While breakneck and foolhardy trading activity in shares of GameStop Corp.GME,+19.20%has dominated the headlines, unanswered questions remain as to whether a broader resurgence in retail trading will last and what it will mean for the stock market as U.S. benchmark indexes march to all-time highs.\nThe comeback\nIt’s been a long time coming.\nThe stock market put in a historic rally over the past decade “without any prominent retail interest in it,” said Chris Konstantinos, chief investment strategist at RiverFront Investment Group, in an interview.\nHe noted that total bond fund flows have outpaced stock flows by nearly $3 trillion since 2007. In fact, individual investors appeared interested in almost anything else, from real estate to cryptocurrencies, Konstantinos said.\nA shift got under way last year as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. Sequential growth in accounts at brokers such as Charles Schwab Corp.SCHW,+0.98%that cater to individual investors “was remarkable” at the end of the second quarter of 2020 and was followed by a major surge in growth in the following quarter, said Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, in a Feb. 2 note.\nAt the same time Google searches for “day trading” were also on the rise, she noted (see charts below).\nRBC CAPITAL MARKETS\nCalvasina and others acknowledged that a combination of lockdown-related boredom and stimulus checks from the U.S. government likely played a role in the uptick in individual investing interest.\nThe jury is out on whether that enthusiasm will endure, said Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research Group, in an interview. It’s unclear how much of the pickup in retail trading merely reflects individuals throwing extra money via stimulus checks at the market, he said.\nThat sort of trading feels more like gambling than investing, he said, noting that “frothy” market action tends to fade quickly away.\nNo doubt, day traders who jumped on the GameStop rally in a big way and listened to pleas on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum to hold the line were left to suffer ugly losses. Some market watchers fear that the bubble-like activity in so-called meme stocks could end up scaring away individual investors, nipping any resurgence in the bud.\nBut others argued that many individual investors, whose ranks aren’t made up soley of rapid-fire day traders, were likely to stick around.\n‘Structural change’\nCalvasina said RBC suspects a “structural change may be afoot and that retail investors are likely to remain bigger players in the U.S. equity market going forward.”\nIf so, that will require an attitude adjustment by Wall Street pros, who got used to paying little attention to individual investors.\nAfter all, powerful waves of passive and systematic investment had rendered individual investors largely irrelevant to analysts cooking up market forecasts, wrote strategists at Société Générale, in a Thursday note.\nBut the market volatility created by the GameStop situation served as a wake-up call, the analysts said.\nWhile GameStop and other heavily shorted names soared, hedge funds and other investors were seen liquidating long positions elsewhere, to take profits and cover losses, putting pressure on equities markets. Major benchmarks ended January on a sour note, with the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.30%,S&P 500SPX,+0.39%and Nasdaq CompositeCOMP,+0.57%logging their largest weekly declines since October.\nU.S. stocks roared back in the past week, however, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaqscoring all-time highsas GameStop tumbled more than 80%.\nThe SocGen analysts said increased retail interest in the markets is part of a broader trend that has seen individual investors driving demand for investments that take environmental, social and corporate governance, or ESG, standards into account.\n“Rather than criticizing retail investors and their behavioral pattens, it is better to slot them into the money equation,” they wrote. “After all, it is not only office workers who are locked down at home on snowy days but also very active day traders with access to inexpensive platforms.”\nCabin fever, however, is hardly the only factor seen driving the renewed interest in the market by individual investors.\nLeveling the field\nSome individual investors who previously shunned equities might finally be succumbing to the notion that ultralow yields on bonds and elsewhere leave little alternative to the stock market. Equities still look attractive when it comes to dividend or earnings yields, Konstantinos said.\nMoreover, there’s the leveling of the playing field between institutional and individual investors over the past few decades. Regulation FD (for “full disclosure’) and other regulatory changes as well as the rise of low-fee trading platforms have put individual investors “on a closer footing to institutional investors than at any other time in history,” he said.\nIndeed, some market watchers have argued that the conventional branding of individual investors as the “dumb money” looks increasingly misguided, particularly after the GameStop episode showed supposedly “smart money” investors shorting more than 100% of the company’s stock, leaving them wide open to a painful short squeeze.\nCalvasina noted that some of the more well-known trades pursued by individual investors over the past year — buying stocks in the middle of a recession, buying airlines and cruise lines last summer, and implementing short squeezes this winter — come from a playbook that’s been largely abandoned by institutional investors over the past decade in favor of growth-, momentum- and quality-investing strategies.\nOn that point, highly shorted names have outperformed the market since the March 23 lows when it comes to both small- and large-cap stocks, a development that typically occurs after the market has put in a mid-recession low, she noted.\nStill, the frenzy in retail trading that surrounded the short squeeze on GameStop and a handful of other heavily shorted small-cap stocks raised a red flag to investors on the lookout for the sort of froth that signals a rally is entering the sort of euphoric phase typically followed by a pullback.\nNext leg?\nWhile that may prove to be the case in the near term, some investors contend a sustained pickup in active individual investing interest could help drive the next leg of a bull market.\nIndividual investors could continue to fuel interest in more value-oriented, smaller capitalization and higher volatility names, Konstantinos said.\nAnd sustained interest in individual securities could mean more “dispersion,” or variation in returns between individual stocks and sectors, said Clissold — an element that was missing over the past decade to the pain of active fund managers.\nCalvasina argued that retail interest in specific stocks is likely to ebb and flow, as it has done over the past year, but probably won’t fade away.\n“Unless the door closes (i.e. through a major regulatory change), we fail to see why retail investor interest in trading specific names will completely go way given how elevated cash on the sidelines is among consumers,” she wrote.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":383085832,"gmtCreate":1612807717626,"gmtModify":1703765416142,"author":{"id":"3575263762777843","authorId":"3575263762777843","name":"Danieloyx","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575263762777843","idStr":"3575263762777843"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Enter and exit&nbsp;at the right time is important. For hyper stocks never be those last batch to enter&nbsp;","listText":"Enter and exit&nbsp;at the right time is important. For hyper stocks never be those last batch to enter&nbsp;","text":"Enter and exit at the right time is important. For hyper stocks never be those last batch to enter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383085832","repostId":"1195153829","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195153829","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1612781502,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195153829?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-08 18:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195153829","media":"Barrons","summary":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers","content":"<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s What the GameStop Affair Has Taught Us<blockquote>以下是游戏驿站事件教给我们的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-08 18:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>这篇评论最近由基金经理、研究公司和市场时事通讯作者发表，并由《巴伦周刊》编辑。</i></blockquote></p><p> What GameStop Taught Us</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站教给我们的</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Weekly Speculator</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每周投机者</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Marketfield Asset Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Marketfield资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> marketfield.com</p><p><blockquote>marketfield.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：总而言之，GameStop（股票代码：GME）事件最持久的影响之一将是让许多市场参与者了解清算机构存款信托公司所扮演的关键角色和最终权力。这件事更奇怪的一面是，有人试图将其描绘成某种形式的道德讨伐，或者是“小人物”报复华尔街的机会。事实是，一些大投资者损失了大量资金，而另一些投资者则获得了丰厚的回报，就像一些小投资者将获得改变生活的资金，而另一些投资者将损失可能同样具有影响力的资金一样。从这个意义上说，市场是一个精英统治，这并不等同于说它在提供结果方面总是公平的。</blockquote></p><p> What is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&amp;P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&amp;P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.</p><p><blockquote>同样清楚的是，1月下旬，杠杆对冲基金投资者的资金大幅减少，但并未导致股市大幅调整。标普500基本上尊重50日均线的支撑，不需要跌至我们设定的“最坏情况”目标3600点。纳斯达克100指数、Russell 2000指数和MSCI新兴市场指数不需要触及相应的趋势支撑，这三个指数在1月份都成功产生了正回报，不像标普500出现了小幅亏损。随后的反弹迅速而广泛，正如技术性和短暂性催化剂所预期的那样。</blockquote></p><p> That it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.</p><p><blockquote>这不是一件完全积极或无关紧要的事情。漫长的牛市现在有发展成历史性狂热的迹象。这并不意味着市场峰值即将到来，但规范过程——什么是“适当的”最终会受到极端情况的影响——意味着普通投资者承担的风险水平可能明显高于Covid之前。</blockquote></p><p> —Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett</p><p><blockquote>——迈克尔·绍尔、蒂莫西·布莱凯特</blockquote></p><p> Heigh-Ho Silver!</p><p><blockquote>嗨-嗬银！</blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast Weekly Update</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报每周更新</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>The Aden Forecast</i></p><p><blockquote><i>亚丁天气预报</i></blockquote></p><p> adenforecast.com</p><p><blockquote>adenforecast.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：周一，在Reddit的购买狂潮中，白银飙升至接近30美元的8月份高点。无论如何，白银都很坚挺，而且一直保持良好，所以无论谁盯住白银，都知道他们在做什么。白银股也大幅上涨，虽然此后有所平静，但波动性似乎仍将持续。自12月以来，白银一直保持在15周移动平均线上方，并将保持在25美元上方。下一个要超越的里程碑是30美元水平，这是本轮牛市的高点。如果明显被打破，另一条腿将会上升。保持你的白银和白银份额头寸。</blockquote></p><p> —Mary Anne and Pamela Aden</p><p><blockquote>——玛丽·安妮和帕梅拉·亚丁</blockquote></p><p> How to Play Oil’s Recent Rally</p><p><blockquote>如何玩转石油近期的反弹</blockquote></p><p> <i>Daily Insights</i></p><p><blockquote><i>每日洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>BCA Research</i></p><p><blockquote><i>BCA研究</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>bcaresearch.com</i></p><p><blockquote><i>bcaresearch.com</i></blockquote></p><p> Feb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.</p><p><blockquote>2月4日：最近的油价上涨将对能源市场以外的资产价格产生影响。虽然油价上涨有利于石油出口国，但也损害了石油进口国的经济，而且往往有滞后性。</blockquote></p><p> A great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.</p><p><blockquote>这些动态的一个很好的例子是中国。中国经济是石油进口大国；因此，油价上涨是对中国经济增长的一种征税。此外，中国A股大量持有跑赢大盘科技股，这些股没有从能源价格上涨中受益。事实上，在过去四年中，布伦特原油价格上涨确实会导致国内市场在岸价格下跌约三个月。目前的设置让人想起2018年初。当时，在油价开始上涨后，中国A股已经上涨了几个月。最终，中国经济增长放缓和北京谨慎的政策制定导致了中国股市的大幅抛售。如今，中国经济增长再次减速，北京正在进行一些重大监管收紧，而中国人民银行正在抽干流动性。因此，今年春天中国股市可能会出现大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> A lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.</p><p><blockquote>利用这些动态的低辛烷值策略是相对于德国股市做多英国股市，同时支持隐性货币敞口。德国股票非常跑输大盘能源，德国的石油消费全部进口。与此同时，英国基准充满了能源股，英国仍然是石油生产国，即使它进口部分石油（布伦特原油价格上涨对英国经济的税收相对较小）。作为一个附带好处，英镑兑欧元非常便宜，而且英国的疫苗接种活动远远领先于欧元区，这可能会导致英吉利海峡以北更早的经济红利，并在此过程中损害欧元/英镑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> —Mathieu Savary and Team</p><p><blockquote>——Mathieu Savary和团队</blockquote></p><p> High-Yield Opportunities</p><p><blockquote>高收益机会</blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Credit Insight</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret信用洞察</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Carret Asset Mangaement</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Carret资产管理</i></blockquote></p><p> carret.com</p><p><blockquote>carret.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.</p><p><blockquote>2月3日：2020年底，iBoxx高收益指数收益率为4.23%，创历史新低。利差也创下历史新高。随着全球投资者寻求收入，低收益率并不令人意外。美联储支持“堕落天使”，允许许多高收益（HY）公司以更低的利率进行再融资，并将即将到期的期限延长一天。强劲的股市预测盈利将反弹，疫苗将很快带来光明的日子。我们继续在高质量HY市场的短期/中期部分发现有吸引力的价值。</blockquote></p><p> We want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&amp;P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&amp;P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>我们想与您分享一项关于HY债券市场风险和回报的最新学术研究：George Mason University最近发布了一份关于HY债券基金回报和相对于股票波动性的报告（标普500）。自1990年以来，HY债券基金的平均年化回报率为7.1%，波动率为7.7%。同期，标普500的平均年化回报率为7.8%，但波动性几乎是14.5%的两倍。结论是：HY债券的总回报接近美国股市，而波动性只有美国股市的一半。我们相信，随着股票估值上升和国债收益率暴跌，HY市场将在未来十年提供有竞争力的回报。我们利用破产的可转换债券、优先股和特殊情况收入投资的能力增强了我们的现金流机会。</blockquote></p><p> —Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein</p><p><blockquote>——杰森·R·格雷比尔、尼尔·D·克莱因</blockquote></p><p> Emerging Markets Blast Off</p><p><blockquote>新兴市场起飞</blockquote></p><p> <i>PCM Report</i></p><p><blockquote><i>PCM报告</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Peak Capital Management</i></p><p><blockquote><i>匹克资本管理</i></blockquote></p><p> pcmstrategies.com</p><p><blockquote>pcmstrategies.com</blockquote></p><p> Feb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&amp;P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.</p><p><blockquote>2月1日：到目前为止，2021年对新兴市场股市来说是好年景。今年迄今为止，iShares MSCI新兴市场交易所交易基金(EEM)上涨了约8%，而SPDR S&amp;P 500ETF（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的涨幅约为3%。自2008年金融危机以来，新兴市场整体表现严重落后于美国股市。</blockquote></p><p> What could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.</p><p><blockquote>什么可以推动该资产类别在20201年及以后走高？从长远来看，可能的催化剂是人口统计。美国和欧洲等发达市场人口老龄化，这可能意味着与新兴市场经济体相比，未来十年的生产率和国内生产总值增长可能会较低。</blockquote></p><p> In its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通在其最新的资本市场报告中预计，2021年新兴市场的GDP增长率为3.9%，而发达市场为1.6%。报告显示，中国和印度将推动GDP增长，新兴市场的生产率和人力资本将逐渐向发达市场水平趋同。</blockquote></p><p> —Clint Pekrul</p><p><blockquote>-克林特·佩克鲁尔</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-episode-offers-lessons-for-investors-51612572300?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195153829","content_text":"This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron’s.\nWhat GameStop Taught Us\nThe Weekly Speculator\nMarketfield Asset Management\nmarketfield.com\nFeb. 4: After all is said and done, one of the most lasting effects of theGameStop(ticker: GME) episode will be to educate many market participants about the key role and ultimate power held by the clearing institution, the Depository Trust Company. One of the stranger aspects of the affair has been the attempt to paint it as some form of moral crusade, or an opportunity for the “little guy” to get even with Wall Street. The truth is that some large investors lost a great deal of money, while others were well rewarded, just as some small investors will have reaped life-changing sums while others will have lost funds that may prove to be equally impactful. In this sense, the market is a meritocracy, which isn’t quite the same as saying that it is always fair in delivering outcomes.\nWhat is also clear is that late January saw a very significant degrossing of levered hedge-fund investors, without causing a deep correction in the equity market. The S&P 500 essentially respected support at the 50-day moving average, and didn’t need to move down to 3600, which we had set as a “worst case” target. The Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, and MSCI Emerging Markets Index didn’t need to touch their corresponding trend support, and all three indexes managed to generate a positive return in January, unlike the S&P 500, which registered a small loss. The subsequent bounce has been rapid and broad, as would be expected from a catalyst that was both technical and ephemeral in nature.\nThat it is not a wholly positive or inconsequential affair. The long bull market is now showing signs of developing into a historic mania. This doesn’t mean that a market peak is imminent, but the normative process—whereby what is “appropriate” is ultimately influenced by extremes—means that the levels of risk being taken by the average investor are probably significantly higher than they were pre-Covid.\n—Michael Shaoul, Timothy Brackett\nHeigh-Ho Silver!\nThe Aden Forecast Weekly Update\nThe Aden Forecast\nadenforecast.com\nFeb. 4: Silver caught on fire by zipping up to the August highs near $30 on Monday during the Reddit buying frenzy. Silver was strong anyway, and it’s been holding up well, so whoever pegged silver knew what they were doing. Silver shares also got a big boost upward, and while they have since calmed down, it looks like volatility will stay with us. Silver has been holding above its 15-week moving average since December, and it’ll remain strong by staying above it at $25. The next milestone to surpass is the $30 level, the highs for this bull market. If clearly broken, another leg up will be underway. Keep your silver and silver share positions.\n—Mary Anne and Pamela Aden\nHow to Play Oil’s Recent Rally\nDaily Insights\nBCA Research\nbcaresearch.com\nFeb 4: The recent oil rally will have consequences for asset prices beyond the energy market. While higher oil prices benefit oil exporters, they hurt the economies of oil importers, often with a lag.\nA great example of these dynamics is China. The Chinese economy is a large oil importer; hence, rising oil prices act as a tax on Chinese growth. Moreover, Chinese A shares massively overweight tech stocks, which receive no benefit from higher energy prices. In fact, over the past four years, increasing Brent prices reliably lead to a decline in on-shore domestic markets by roughly three months. The current setup is reminiscent of early 2018. Back then, Chinese A shares had been rallying for a few months after oil prices had started to rally. Ultimately, a deceleration in Chinese growth and cautious policy making from Beijing resulted in a powerful selloff of Chinese equities. Today, Chinese growth is once again decelerating and Beijing is conducting some significant regulatory tightening, while the People’s Bank of China is draining liquidity. Thus, a significant correction in Chinese shares is likely this spring.\nA lower-octane strategy to play these dynamics is to go long United Kingdom equities relative to Germany’s while espousing the implicit currency exposure. German equities are extremely underweight energy, and Germany imports its entire oil consumption. Meanwhile, the U.K. benchmark is replete with energy stocks and the U.K. remains an oil producer, even if it imports some of its oil (rising Brent represents a comparatively smaller tax on the U.K. economy). As a side benefit, the pound is very cheap against the euro and the U.K.’s vaccination campaign is massively ahead of the eurozone’s, which could result in earlier economic dividends north of the Channel and hurt the euro/pound in the process.\n—Mathieu Savary and Team\nHigh-Yield Opportunities\nCarret Credit Insight\nCarret Asset Mangaement\ncarret.com\nFeb. 3: At year-end 2020, the iBoxx High-Yield Index yielded 4.23%, an all-time low. Spreads also registered record tightness. Low yields aren’t a surprise as investors globally reach for income. The Federal Reserve has backstopped the “fallen angels,” allowing many high-yield (HY) companies to refinance at ever-lower rates and extend upcoming maturities for another day. Strong equity markets are forecasting an earnings rebound, and the vaccines will bring brighter days soon. We continue to find attractive values in the short/intermediate portion of the high-quality HY market.\nWe want to share a recent academic study with you regarding the risk and returns in the HY bond market: George Mason Universityrecently publisheda report on HY bond-fund returns and volatility relative to equities (S&P 500). Since 1990, the average HY bond fund has delivered average annualized returns of 7.1% with a volatility of 7.7%. Over the same time period, the S&P 500 delivered an average annualized return of 7.8%, but with almost double the volatility of 14.5%. The conclusion: HY bonds have paid total returns near those of the U.S. stock market with half of the volatility. We believe the HY market will offer competitive returns in the decade ahead, as equity valuations have risen and Treasury yields have plummeted. Our ability to utilize busted convertibles, preferreds, and special-situation income investments enhances our cash-flow opportunities.\n—Jason R. Graybill, Neil D. Klein\nEmerging Markets Blast Off\nPCM Report\nPeak Capital Management\npcmstrategies.com\nFeb. 1: So far, 2021 has been a good year for emerging-market equities. Year to date, theiShares MSCI Emerging Marketsexchange-traded fund (EEM) is higher by roughly 8%, compared to a gain of approximately 3% for theSPDR S&P 500ETF (SPY). Ever since the financial crisis of 2008, emerging markets collectively have woefully lagged U.S. equities.\nWhat could propel the asset class higher in 20201 and beyond? In the long term, the likely catalyst is demographics. Developed markets such as the U.S. and Europe have aging populations, which could suggest lower productivity and gross-domestic-product growth over the next decade compared to emerging-market economies.\nIn its most recent capital-markets report, JPMorgan projected GDP growth across emerging markets to be 3.9% in 2021, compared to 1.6% across developed markets. The report suggests China and India will drive GDP growth, and emerging markets’ productivity and human capital will gradually converge to developed-market levels.\n—Clint Pekrul","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}