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鱼三

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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-11-17
  $一起教育科技(YQ)$怎么回事？回光返照？
  1,537 评论
  1
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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-08-04
  $腾讯音乐(TME)$再次被政策波及到了Ouch
  1,125 评论
  1
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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-07-26
  $一起教育科技(YQ)$哈哈哈哈哈哈今天才掉24块！已经是死猪不怕开水烫了[得意]
  2,435 2
  4
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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-07-22
  $SOS Limited(SOS)$两天涨了30%,虽然还在亏损，但你真是妈妈的好大儿[安慰]
  1,518 评论
  3
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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-07-06
  $滴滴(DIDI)$我这是买啥啥跌，韭菜风向标。不过那些11多就抛售的韭菜们，断舍离做得很干脆利落啊[惊讶]
  2,705 8
  3
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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-07-01
  $滴滴(DIDI)$今晚为滴滴摇旗呐喊
  1,522 1
  2
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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-06-22
  $一起教育科技(YQ)$再跌就认你当爹[警告]
  1,281 评论
  5
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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-06-21
  公司就是做Saas的。等上市分股票已经等了很久了。遥遥无期。[笑哭]
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,043 1
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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-06-19
  和一起教育科技还是没有一毛钱关系[流泪] 求求股票快站起来，别再跪了
  中概教育股强势反弹，高途涨超9%
  6月18日，中概教育股强势反弹，截止发稿，高途涨超9%，好未来涨超8%，有道涨近6%，新东方涨超4%。
  中概教育股强势反弹，高途涨超9%
  1,194 评论
  4
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- 鱼三鱼三
  ·2021-06-15
  看不懂[DOGE] 这是什么意思？
  2万亿期权周五到期，年内第二个“四巫日”太可怕？
  美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号。
  2万亿期权周五到期，年内第二个“四巫日”太可怕？
  1,572 4
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[开心]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":158661724,"gmtCreate":1625148034568,"gmtModify":1633944259915,"author":{"id":"3575637218307642","authorId":"3575637218307642","name":"鱼三","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026c5a802db8b0565039777618671de7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575637218307642","authorIdStr":"3575637218307642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>今晚为滴滴摇旗呐喊","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YQ\">$一起教育科技(YQ)$</a>再跌就认你当爹[警告]&nbsp;","text":"$一起教育科技(YQ)$再跌就认你当爹[警告]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca2914601444437a013fd7912b82239b","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129921910","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":167883120,"gmtCreate":1624258621260,"gmtModify":1634008765273,"author":{"id":"3575637218307642","authorId":"3575637218307642","name":"鱼三","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026c5a802db8b0565039777618671de7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575637218307642","authorIdStr":"3575637218307642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"公司就是做Saas的。等上市分股票已经等了很久了。遥遥无期。[笑哭]&nbsp;","listText":"公司就是做Saas的。等上市分股票已经等了很久了。遥遥无期。[笑哭]&nbsp;","text":"公司就是做Saas的。等上市分股票已经等了很久了。遥遥无期。[笑哭]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167883120","repostId":"1171966944","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":162153277,"gmtCreate":1624047551199,"gmtModify":1631888899615,"author":{"id":"3575637218307642","authorId":"3575637218307642","name":"鱼三","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026c5a802db8b0565039777618671de7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575637218307642","authorIdStr":"3575637218307642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"和一起教育科技还是没有一毛钱关系[流泪]&nbsp;求求股票快站起来，别再跪了","listText":"和一起教育科技还是没有一毛钱关系[流泪]&nbsp;求求股票快站起来，别再跪了","text":"和一起教育科技还是没有一毛钱关系[流泪] 求求股票快站起来，别再跪了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162153277","repostId":"1156914181","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156914181","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624024980,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156914181?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 22:03","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"中概教育股强势反弹，高途涨超9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156914181","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月18日，中概教育股强势反弹，截止发稿，高途涨超9%，好未来涨超8%，有道涨近6%，新东方涨超4%。","content":"<p>6月18日，中概教育股强势反弹，截止发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">有道</a>涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>涨超4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253ed0f448834fca32d2ac08bcdc7bc8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中概教育股强势反弹，高途涨超9%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中概教育股强势反弹，高途涨超9%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-18 22:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月18日，中概教育股强势反弹，截止发稿，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOTU\">高途</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">有道</a>涨近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>涨超4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/253ed0f448834fca32d2ac08bcdc7bc8\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a65ddf73055baf7ee7e017124875990","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156914181","content_text":"6月18日，中概教育股强势反弹，截止发稿，高途涨超9%，好未来涨超8%，有道涨近6%，新东方涨超4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":160008631,"gmtCreate":1623765708623,"gmtModify":1634028661376,"author":{"id":"3575637218307642","authorId":"3575637218307642","name":"鱼三","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026c5a802db8b0565039777618671de7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575637218307642","authorIdStr":"3575637218307642"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看不懂[DOGE]&nbsp;这是什么意思？","listText":"看不懂[DOGE]&nbsp;这是什么意思？","text":"看不懂[DOGE] 这是什么意思？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160008631","repostId":"1119444358","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119444358","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623730397,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119444358?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 12:13","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"2万亿期权周五到期，年内第二个“四巫日”太可怕？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119444358","media":"美港电讯","summary":"美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号。","content":"<p>周一，纳指、标普500指数再创历史新高；与此同时，衡量标普500指数波动性的VIX指数近日持续走低，目前已经触及去年疫情爆发以来的最低水平。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c682edd73777792c9069a8b0727620e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>金融博客零对冲撰文指出，<u><b>美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号，这是年内第二个“四巫日”，届时大量美股期权将同时到期。</b></u></p>\n<p>高盛的内部衍生品专家Rocky Fishman预测6月即将到期的期权规模和之前一样巨大，具体而言，本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54db6f13be487dd09e44c260bc5440db\" tg-width=\"894\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>值得注意的是，执行价格接近标的资产价格的期权数量创下10年来最低，由于近期美股一直处于高位，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的股指现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a85d6a35c0b893247b3b9095f4400b15\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此外，据高盛估计，折式合成期权（combos）占标普500指数期权规模的15-20%，即调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远大于即将到期的单一股票期权的未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。</p>\n<p><b><u>这个“四巫日”之所以特别，一个重要原因是此前大盘波动率实在低得异常。</u></b>高盛策略师指出标普500指数过去13个交易日的波动率仅为5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>这一幕和1997年8月相似，当时标普500指数不断续刷新高，与此同时VIX指数却处于新低。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>大盘波动率极低，但诡异的是，个股却频频上演极端波动，例如AMC——虽然AMC上周名义成交量仅70亿美元/天，远低于亚马逊的1200亿美元/天，且远低于第一季度的峰值，但在所有个股中其合约成交量最高，期间可实现的成交量接近400%。</p>\n<p>分析指出，散户驱动了所有个股期权活动的很大比例，近期个股期权活动的增长主要集中在低价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量的份额与名义交易量不匹配。</p>\n<p>目前美股的多头伽玛头寸规模依然高企，野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，<b><u>极低的大盘实际波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期的情况是危险的，即一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升</u></b>。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>高盛还指出，临近周五“四巫日”，美股期权交易量正在下降，这个反常现象出现主要是因为每周到期的短期期权正在变得火热，尤其是大受散户投资者欢迎。事实上，第三个周五到期的标普500指数期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，甚至小于每周一和周三到期期权交易量的百分比。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>超短期期权交易量增加的一个解释是散户对部分个股的热潮。高盛指出：</p>\n<blockquote>\n “如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者看涨买入产生的短期gamma，他们可能会积极买入多头头寸，以抵消伽玛效应。”\n</blockquote>\n<p>零对冲警告，一旦这个趋势变得普遍，大盘可能会面临剧烈波动。</p>","source":"live_meigang","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2万亿期权周五到期，年内第二个“四巫日”太可怕？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2万亿期权周五到期，年内第二个“四巫日”太可怕？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 12:13 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003226><strong>美港电讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周一，纳指、标普500指数再创历史新高；与此同时，衡量标普500指数波动性的VIX指数近日持续走低，目前已经触及去年疫情爆发以来的最低水平。\n\n金融博客零对冲撰文指出，美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号，这是年内第二个“四巫日”，届时大量美股期权将同时到期。\n高盛的内部衍生品专家Rocky Fishman预测6月即将到期的期权规模和之前一样巨大，具体而言，本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003226\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://news.ushknews.com/mobile/details.html?id=1003226","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119444358","content_text":"周一，纳指、标普500指数再创历史新高；与此同时，衡量标普500指数波动性的VIX指数近日持续走低，目前已经触及去年疫情爆发以来的最低水平。\n\n金融博客零对冲撰文指出，美股这样的平静日子很可能在本周五就画上句号，这是年内第二个“四巫日”，届时大量美股期权将同时到期。\n高盛的内部衍生品专家Rocky Fishman预测6月即将到期的期权规模和之前一样巨大，具体而言，本周五到期的期权包括：价值2400亿美元的标普500指数ETF期权，2000亿美元的迷你标普500指数期货以及1.8万亿美元的标普500指数期权。\n\n值得注意的是，执行价格接近标的资产价格的期权数量创下10年来最低，由于近期美股一直处于高位，预计大部分6月未平仓合约价格都低于当前的股指现货价格。如下图所示，行权价在3900和4150附近期权分布密集。这意味着在本周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的支撑，直到被新的gamma重新填充。\n\n此外，据高盛估计，折式合成期权（combos）占标普500指数期权规模的15-20%，即调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远大于即将到期的单一股票期权的未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。\n这个“四巫日”之所以特别，一个重要原因是此前大盘波动率实在低得异常。高盛策略师指出标普500指数过去13个交易日的波动率仅为5.1%，这是自2019年以来最低。\n\n这一幕和1997年8月相似，当时标普500指数不断续刷新高，与此同时VIX指数却处于新低。\n\n大盘波动率极低，但诡异的是，个股却频频上演极端波动，例如AMC——虽然AMC上周名义成交量仅70亿美元/天，远低于亚马逊的1200亿美元/天，且远低于第一季度的峰值，但在所有个股中其合约成交量最高，期间可实现的成交量接近400%。\n分析指出，散户驱动了所有个股期权活动的很大比例，近期个股期权活动的增长主要集中在低价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量的份额与名义交易量不匹配。\n目前美股的多头伽玛头寸规模依然高企，野村证券的Charlie McElligott指出，极低的大盘实际波动率与大量看涨gamma期权到期的情况是危险的，即一旦头寸集体平仓，实际波动率可能会瞬间回升。同时，VIX指数期货相对于标普500指数Beta值不断上升，这表明，如果市场出现抛售，空头gamma仓位会回升，市场将变得更加不稳定。\n\n高盛还指出，临近周五“四巫日”，美股期权交易量正在下降，这个反常现象出现主要是因为每周到期的短期期权正在变得火热，尤其是大受散户投资者欢迎。事实上，第三个周五到期的标普500指数期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，甚至小于每周一和周三到期期权交易量的百分比。\n\n超短期期权交易量增加的一个解释是散户对部分个股的热潮。高盛指出：\n\n “如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者看涨买入产生的短期gamma，他们可能会积极买入多头头寸，以抵消伽玛效应。”\n\n零对冲警告，一旦这个趋势变得普遍，大盘可能会面临剧烈波动。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3562670436825511","authorId":"3562670436825511","name":"上了飞机老师","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1f05edd9e1dfe2801c7d5b00683313e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3562670436825511","authorIdStr":"3562670436825511"},"content":"amc会暴涨","text":"amc会暴涨","html":"amc会暴涨"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}