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- KurorzKurorz
  ·2021-07-23
  Ok
  KE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading
  (July 23) KE Holdings Inc. tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading. KE Holdings operates an online pla
  KE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading
  886 评论
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- KurorzKurorz
  ·2021-07-21
  Like please
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  717 2
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- KurorzKurorz
  ·2021-07-20
  Like please
  Nvidia, Blue Origin and Jeff Bezos, Apple, Netflix - 5 Things You Must Know Tuesday
  Stock futures indicate Wall Street will claw back some losses from Monday's selloff; Jeff Bezos prep
  Nvidia, Blue Origin and Jeff Bezos, Apple, Netflix - 5 Things You Must Know Tuesday
  981 评论
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- KurorzKurorz
  ·2021-07-19
  Like my comment please
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
  This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
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- KurorzKurorz
  ·2021-07-11
  Like n comment please
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>KE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKE tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-23 22:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 23)&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">KE Holdings Inc.</a></b> tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading.&nbsp;KE Holdings operates an online platform for Chinese housing transactions and services.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c70e9ab1966db1941d729576154c7970\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138940169","content_text":"(July 23) KE Holdings Inc. tumbled nearly 25% in morning trading. KE Holdings operates an online platform for Chinese housing transactions and services.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176138175,"gmtCreate":1626870351897,"gmtModify":1633770279573,"author":{"id":"3576662484862450","authorId":"3576662484862450","name":"Kurorz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576662484862450","authorIdStr":"3576662484862450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176138175","repostId":"2153534643","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178983600,"gmtCreate":1626781312300,"gmtModify":1633771113542,"author":{"id":"3576662484862450","authorId":"3576662484862450","name":"Kurorz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576662484862450","authorIdStr":"3576662484862450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178983600","repostId":"1158912810","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158912810","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626779113,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158912810?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 19:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia, Blue Origin and Jeff Bezos, Apple, Netflix - 5 Things You Must Know Tuesday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158912810","media":"The Street","summary":"Stock futures indicate Wall Street will claw back some losses from Monday's selloff; Jeff Bezos prep","content":"<p>Stock futures indicate Wall Street will claw back some losses from Monday's selloff; Jeff Bezos prepares for liftoff into space; Nvidia outperforms its peers; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> delays a return to the office.</p>\n<p>Here are five things you must know for Tuesday, July 20:</p>\n<p><b>1. Stock Futures Indicate a Modest Recovery From Monday's Rout</b></p>\n<p>Stock futures traded higher Tuesday, indicating Wall Street will claw back some losses from Monday's selloff as investors turned their attention to a slew of earnings reports.</p>\n<p>Contracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 205 points, S&amp;P 500 futures were up 21 points and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> futures gained 75 points.</p>\n<p>The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell Tuesday to 1.179%. It fell below 1.2% on Monday to the lowest levels since February as investors moved into safe-haven assets.</p>\n<p>Stocks plummeted Mondayas Wall Street weighed what impact rising COVID-19 cases may have on the economic recovery in the U.S. and globally. The Dow dropped more than 700 points, its worst decline since October.</p>\n<p>\"Valuations across the market as a whole had become stretched and we were due for a pullback, but many of the cyclical companies are selling off on fears that COVID will stop the recovery in its tracks,\" said&nbsp;Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.</p>\n<p>\"We don’t believe that that’s the case and are willing to let the selloff run its course and buy the dip on the belief that the economy will fully recover and return to its prior growth trajectory, bringing most of the cyclical companies in the airline, travel and leisure industries along with it,\"&nbsp;Zaccarelli&nbsp;added.</p>\n<p>Benchmark U.S. crude rose 0.63% to $66.84 a barrel early Tuesday after tumbling on worries a resurgence of COVID-19 would sap energy demand.</p>\n<p><b>2. Tuesday's Calendar: <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix, Inc.</a> and Chipotle Earnings</b></p>\n<p>Earnings reports are expected Tuesday from <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">Netflix</a>&nbsp;(<b>NFLX</b>) , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">Philip Morris</a>&nbsp;(<b>PM</b>) ,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a>&nbsp;(<b>ISRG</b>) , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBNK\">United</a> Airlines&nbsp;(<b>UAL</b>) , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMG\">Chipotle Mexican Grill</a>&nbsp;(<b>CMG</b>)&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRV\">Travelers</a>&nbsp;(<b>TRV</b>) .</p>\n<p>The&nbsp;economic calendar&nbsp;in the U.S. Tuesday includes&nbsp;Housing Starts and Permits for June at 8:30 a.m. ET.</p>\n<p><b>3. Jeff Bezos Prepares for Liftoff</b></p>\n<p>Jeff Bezos, the founder and executive chairman of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">Amazon.com</a>&nbsp;(<b>AMZN</b>) and the richest man on Earth, will be leaving solid ground Tuesday on a flight to space.</p>\n<p>Bezos's Blue Origin space-flight startup will blast him and three other space tourists 66 miles above Earth in a fully autonomous rocket and capsule.</p>\n<p>His trip comes a little more than a week after&nbsp;fellow entrepreneur&nbsp;Richard Branson, the founder of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a>&nbsp;(<b>SPCE</b>) ,&nbsp;made the trip to low-Earth orbit space.</p>\n<p>Bezos will be accompanied by his brother Mark; Mary Wallace Funk, an aviation pioneer who at 82 will be the oldest person to go into space; and Oliver Daemen, who at 18 will bethe youngest person to ever go into space.</p>\n<p>\"We'll be building a road to space for the next generation to do amazing things, and those amazing things will improve things here on Earth,\" Bezos said at a news conference at Launch Site One in Van Horn, Texas. \"We really believe this flight is safe.\"</p>\n<p><b>4. Nvidia's Stock Outperforms</b></p>\n<p>Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>) was rising in premarket trading Tuesday, a day after thechipmaker&nbsp;rose while many of its competitors fellin Monday's market swoon.</p>\n<p>Nvidia's stock will be split&nbsp;4-for-1 on Tuesday.</p>\n<p>Shares of Nvidia rose 0.88% to $189.45 early Tuesday after jumping 3.41% during the previous session.</p>\n<p>The stock has risen nearly 80% over the past year, giving it a market value of around $453 billion. That is more than rivals <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">Intel</a>&nbsp;(<b>INTC</b>)&nbsp;and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>&nbsp;(<b>AVGO</b>) combined, a story in The Wall Street Journal noted.</p>\n<p>Analysts have piled on the praise for Nvidia since the company’s first-quarter earnings,which were better than expected.</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TST\">TheStreet</a>'sBrent Kenwell wrote earlier this month that after a recent declineNvidia shares represented a buy-the-dip candidate.</p>\n<p><b>5. Apple Delays a Return to Offices</b></p>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> </b>reportedly has pushed back the date it expects employees to return to the tech giant's offices because of a resurgence of COVID variants across many countries.</p>\n<p>Apple has extended the deadline by&nbsp;at least a month to October at the earliest, Bloomberg reported, citing&nbsp;people familiar with the matter.</p>\n<p>CEO Tim Cook had said in June that employees should begin returning to offices in early September for at least three days a week.</p>\n<p>But that directive has changed with the&nbsp;iPhone maker becoming <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the first U.S. tech giants to delay plans for a return to the office. Apple will give its employees at least a month’s warning before mandating a return to offices, people told Bloomberg.</p>\n<p>The stock gained 0.39% in premarket trading to $143. Shares fell 2.69% on Monday.</p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia, Blue Origin and Jeff Bezos, Apple, Netflix - 5 Things You Must Know Tuesday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia, Blue Origin and Jeff Bezos, Apple, Netflix - 5 Things You Must Know Tuesday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 19:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-things-you-must-know-before-market-opens-tuesday-072021><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Stock futures indicate Wall Street will claw back some losses from Monday's selloff; Jeff Bezos prepares for liftoff into space; Nvidia outperforms its peers; Apple delays a return to the office.\nHere...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-things-you-must-know-before-market-opens-tuesday-072021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/markets/5-things-you-must-know-before-market-opens-tuesday-072021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158912810","content_text":"Stock futures indicate Wall Street will claw back some losses from Monday's selloff; Jeff Bezos prepares for liftoff into space; Nvidia outperforms its peers; Apple delays a return to the office.\nHere are five things you must know for Tuesday, July 20:\n1. Stock Futures Indicate a Modest Recovery From Monday's Rout\nStock futures traded higher Tuesday, indicating Wall Street will claw back some losses from Monday's selloff as investors turned their attention to a slew of earnings reports.\nContracts linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 205 points, S&P 500 futures were up 21 points and Nasdaq futures gained 75 points.\nThe yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury fell Tuesday to 1.179%. It fell below 1.2% on Monday to the lowest levels since February as investors moved into safe-haven assets.\nStocks plummeted Mondayas Wall Street weighed what impact rising COVID-19 cases may have on the economic recovery in the U.S. and globally. The Dow dropped more than 700 points, its worst decline since October.\n\"Valuations across the market as a whole had become stretched and we were due for a pullback, but many of the cyclical companies are selling off on fears that COVID will stop the recovery in its tracks,\" said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance.\n\"We don’t believe that that’s the case and are willing to let the selloff run its course and buy the dip on the belief that the economy will fully recover and return to its prior growth trajectory, bringing most of the cyclical companies in the airline, travel and leisure industries along with it,\" Zaccarelli added.\nBenchmark U.S. crude rose 0.63% to $66.84 a barrel early Tuesday after tumbling on worries a resurgence of COVID-19 would sap energy demand.\n2. Tuesday's Calendar: Netflix, Inc. and Chipotle Earnings\nEarnings reports are expected Tuesday from Netflix (NFLX) , Philip Morris (PM) , Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) , United Airlines (UAL) , Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Travelers (TRV) .\nThe economic calendar in the U.S. Tuesday includes Housing Starts and Permits for June at 8:30 a.m. ET.\n3. Jeff Bezos Prepares for Liftoff\nJeff Bezos, the founder and executive chairman of Amazon.com (AMZN) and the richest man on Earth, will be leaving solid ground Tuesday on a flight to space.\nBezos's Blue Origin space-flight startup will blast him and three other space tourists 66 miles above Earth in a fully autonomous rocket and capsule.\nHis trip comes a little more than a week after fellow entrepreneur Richard Branson, the founder of Virgin Galactic (SPCE) , made the trip to low-Earth orbit space.\nBezos will be accompanied by his brother Mark; Mary Wallace Funk, an aviation pioneer who at 82 will be the oldest person to go into space; and Oliver Daemen, who at 18 will bethe youngest person to ever go into space.\n\"We'll be building a road to space for the next generation to do amazing things, and those amazing things will improve things here on Earth,\" Bezos said at a news conference at Launch Site One in Van Horn, Texas. \"We really believe this flight is safe.\"\n4. Nvidia's Stock Outperforms\nNvidia (NVDA) was rising in premarket trading Tuesday, a day after thechipmaker rose while many of its competitors fellin Monday's market swoon.\nNvidia's stock will be split 4-for-1 on Tuesday.\nShares of Nvidia rose 0.88% to $189.45 early Tuesday after jumping 3.41% during the previous session.\nThe stock has risen nearly 80% over the past year, giving it a market value of around $453 billion. That is more than rivals Intel (INTC) and Broadcom (AVGO) combined, a story in The Wall Street Journal noted.\nAnalysts have piled on the praise for Nvidia since the company’s first-quarter earnings,which were better than expected.\nTheStreet'sBrent Kenwell wrote earlier this month that after a recent declineNvidia shares represented a buy-the-dip candidate.\n5. Apple Delays a Return to Offices\nApple reportedly has pushed back the date it expects employees to return to the tech giant's offices because of a resurgence of COVID variants across many countries.\nApple has extended the deadline by at least a month to October at the earliest, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.\nCEO Tim Cook had said in June that employees should begin returning to offices in early September for at least three days a week.\nBut that directive has changed with the iPhone maker becoming one of the first U.S. tech giants to delay plans for a return to the office. Apple will give its employees at least a month’s warning before mandating a return to offices, people told Bloomberg.\nThe stock gained 0.39% in premarket trading to $143. Shares fell 2.69% on Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"INTC":0.9,"NFLX":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9,"SPCE":0.9,"UAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171387457,"gmtCreate":1626706626279,"gmtModify":1633924749046,"author":{"id":"3576662484862450","authorId":"3576662484862450","name":"Kurorz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576662484862450","authorIdStr":"3576662484862450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment please","listText":"Like my comment please","text":"Like my comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171387457","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148473699,"gmtCreate":1626012420911,"gmtModify":1633930933721,"author":{"id":"3576662484862450","authorId":"3576662484862450","name":"Kurorz","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576662484862450","authorIdStr":"3576662484862450"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment please","listText":"Like n comment please","text":"Like n comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148473699","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}