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ThomasWong
IP属地：浙江
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
12-05
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
空头已经都成燃料了哈哈哈
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
11-29
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
涨五天评论区里干净多了
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
11-28
哥们杠杆和长期持有不会出现在同一个句子里
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
11-14
笑死公布一个月前的仓位有个几把用？人家现在买了多少进了你又知道？都是落后信息几把用都没
桥水基金三季度大幅减持英伟达
11 月 14 日，全球最大对冲基金桥水截至今年三季度末的持仓报告出炉。报告显示，截至今年三季度末，桥水持有 251 万股英伟达，数量相较于二季度末的 723 万股降低 65.3%。值得一提的是，在今年二季度，桥水对英伟达加仓幅度高达 154.37%。这一减仓举动显示出桥水对英伟达的后市表现趋于谨慎。
桥水基金三季度大幅减持英伟达
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
11-12
那个果子哥啥时候直播吃翔啊
$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
11-12
现在Ai结果都来发了？
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
11-05
大佬纷纷主动拉出自己的空仓仓位，跟着大佬买的这辈子也是有了，心里都没逼数人家赚的钱是哪里来的，我把大佬放心上大佬把我挂树上
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
10-24
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
空军踏空了一堆人上蹿下跳的哈哈 做空没胆量，做多没胆识，拿着现金天天眼巴巴看空笑死我了
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
10-17
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
怎么说呢，几个空军来来回回唱衰唱空，只要一跌就集美小作文说泡沫，现在哪个资产没泡沫？黄金美股越南缅A虚拟货币？比特币从10被唱衰到现在12万还在被唱衰，空军是手里拿着现金心态崩了？
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ThomasWong
ThomasWong
·
09-29
按他这套玩纳斯达克这辈子也是有了
“巴菲特指标”突破200%警戒线！美股估值超越“玩火”水平，但也有观点认为这一指标已“过时”
在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中，巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。如今，这一指标高达217%，远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值，也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。不过，也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。
“巴菲特指标”突破200%警戒线！美股估值超越“玩火”水平，但也有观点认为这一指标已“过时”
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涨五天评论区里干净多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505278580629712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":505126893232672,"gmtCreate":1764341248955,"gmtModify":1764341253995,"author":{"id":"3576845431666845","authorId":"3576845431666845","name":"ThomasWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0296c2d194c9046cee1e65e05cd0f0b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576845431666845","authorIdStr":"3576845431666845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哥们杠杆和长期持有不会出现在同一个句子里","listText":"哥们杠杆和长期持有不会出现在同一个句子里","text":"哥们杠杆和长期持有不会出现在同一个句子里","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/505126893232672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500085460787224,"gmtCreate":1763116597209,"gmtModify":1763125399132,"author":{"id":"3576845431666845","authorId":"3576845431666845","name":"ThomasWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0296c2d194c9046cee1e65e05cd0f0b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576845431666845","authorIdStr":"3576845431666845"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"笑死公布一个月前的仓位有个几把用？人家现在买了多少进了你又知道？都是落后信息几把用都没","listText":"笑死公布一个月前的仓位有个几把用？人家现在买了多少进了你又知道？都是落后信息几把用都没","text":"笑死公布一个月前的仓位有个几把用？人家现在买了多少进了你又知道？都是落后信息几把用都没","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500085460787224","repostId":"1100703230","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100703230","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1763115796,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100703230?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-14 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n桥水基金三季度大幅减持英伟达\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-11-14 18:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>11 月 14 日，全球最大对冲基金桥水截至今年三季度末的持仓报告出炉。报告显示，截至今年三季度末，<strong>桥水持有 251 万股英伟达，数量相较于二季度末的 723 万股降低 65.3%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">值得一提的是，在今年二季度，桥水对英伟达加仓幅度高达 154.37%。这一减仓举动显示出桥水对英伟达的后市表现趋于谨慎。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/04104318a59ace30537c3fb80b5644f3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1251\" tg-height=\"502\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/54c8d89a3a127f48d75c059b16be86c3","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100703230","content_text":"11 月 14 日，全球最大对冲基金桥水截至今年三季度末的持仓报告出炉。报告显示，截至今年三季度末，桥水持有 251 万股英伟达，数量相较于二季度末的 723 万股降低 65.3%。值得一提的是，在今年二季度，桥水对英伟达加仓幅度高达 154.37%。这一减仓举动显示出桥水对英伟达的后市表现趋于谨慎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":499398833418328,"gmtCreate":1762949174063,"gmtModify":1762952512563,"author":{"id":"3576845431666845","authorId":"3576845431666845","name":"ThomasWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0296c2d194c9046cee1e65e05cd0f0b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576845431666845","authorIdStr":"3576845431666845"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"那个果子哥啥时候直播吃翔啊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$ </a> ","listText":"那个果子哥啥时候直播吃翔啊<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/GCmain\">$黄金主连 2512(GCmain)$ </a> ","text":"那个果子哥啥时候直播吃翔啊$黄金主连 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> 空军踏空了一堆人上蹿下跳的哈哈 做空没胆量，做多没胆识，拿着现金天天眼巴巴看空笑死我了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> 空军踏空了一堆人上蹿下跳的哈哈 做空没胆量，做多没胆识，拿着现金天天眼巴巴看空笑死我了","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 空军踏空了一堆人上蹿下跳的哈哈 做空没胆量，做多没胆识，拿着现金天天眼巴巴看空笑死我了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492727599542384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":490222958235704,"gmtCreate":1760710701898,"gmtModify":1760711486591,"author":{"id":"3576845431666845","authorId":"3576845431666845","name":"ThomasWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0296c2d194c9046cee1e65e05cd0f0b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576845431666845","authorIdStr":"3576845431666845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> 怎么说呢，几个空军来来回回唱衰唱空，只要一跌就集美小作文说泡沫，现在哪个资产没泡沫？黄金美股越南缅A虚拟货币？比特币从10被唱衰到现在12万还在被唱衰，空军是手里拿着现金心态崩了？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> 怎么说呢，几个空军来来回回唱衰唱空，只要一跌就集美小作文说泡沫，现在哪个资产没泡沫？黄金美股越南缅A虚拟货币？比特币从10被唱衰到现在12万还在被唱衰，空军是手里拿着现金心态崩了？","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 怎么说呢，几个空军来来回回唱衰唱空，只要一跌就集美小作文说泡沫，现在哪个资产没泡沫？黄金美股越南缅A虚拟货币？比特币从10被唱衰到现在12万还在被唱衰，空军是手里拿着现金心态崩了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/490222958235704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":483638706708776,"gmtCreate":1759104717351,"gmtModify":1759104719685,"author":{"id":"3576845431666845","authorId":"3576845431666845","name":"ThomasWong","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0296c2d194c9046cee1e65e05cd0f0b7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576845431666845","authorIdStr":"3576845431666845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"按他这套玩纳斯达克这辈子也是有了","listText":"按他这套玩纳斯达克这辈子也是有了","text":"按他这套玩纳斯达克这辈子也是有了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/483638706708776","repostId":"1145000178","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1145000178","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1759103217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145000178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-29 07:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“巴菲特指标”突破200%警戒线！美股估值超越“玩火”水平，但也有观点认为这一指标已“过时”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145000178","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中，巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。如今，这一指标高达217%，远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值，也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。不过，也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e109fc409f8ab806263cd73c30381e11\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"457\"/></p><p>沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）曾经最钟爱的股市估值指标如今攀升至历史新高，再次引发担忧：投资者是否又在考验市场狂热的极限。</p><p>这个指标被称为<strong>巴菲特指标（Buffett Indicator）</strong>，它衡量美国上市公司股票总市值（以威尔希尔5000指数为代表）与美国国民生产总值（GNP）的比值。在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中，巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。该指标也曾被包括保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）在内的知名投资者引用。</p><p>巴菲特在2001年的一次演讲（后被《财富》摘录）中表示：“如果这一比例降到70%或80%左右，买股票对你来说可能非常划算。”他还警告说，“如果这一比例接近200%——就像在1999年和2000年一部分时间那样——你就是在玩火。”</p><p>如今，这一指标高达<strong>217%</strong>，远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值，也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05991784bdadcde4267d380d0282eafc\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p>按照这一标准，今天的美国股市正进入前所未有的水域：股票市值的扩张速度远超美国整体经济的增长。推动这波行情的主要是<strong>超大市值科技公司</strong>，它们在人工智能领域投入数十亿美元研发，并因新时代的增长前景而获得高估值倍数。</p><p>其他估值指标也在释放类似信号。根据Bespoke Investment Group的数据，标普500指数的市销率（P/S）近期升至<strong>3.33</strong>，创下历史新高。相比之下，2000年互联网泡沫时期的峰值仅为<strong>2.27</strong>，而新冠疫情后的繁荣则达到<strong>3.21</strong>后才回落。</p><p>不过，也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。过去20年，美国经济发生了巨大变化，越来越少依赖有形资产，而是更多依靠<strong>科技、软件和知识产权</strong>驱动。</p><p>在这种情况下，GDP和GNP可能低估了一个建立在数据网络和创新之上的经济体的价值。因此，全球最具生产力和创新力的美国经济，或许能够支撑更高的股票估值。</p><p>巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。但他在伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）过去两年持续构筑现金“堡垒”，同时准备把CEO职位交给格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）。公司第二季度财报显示，伯克希尔现金储备已达<strong>3441亿美元</strong>，且连续第11个季度净卖出股票。</p><p>即便这一指标可能已“过时”，但结合“奥马哈先知”当前的谨慎布局，如今飙升至极端水平的巴菲特指标，仍必然会引起市场的高度关注。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“巴菲特指标”突破200%警戒线！美股估值超越“玩火”水平，但也有观点认为这一指标已“过时”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“巴菲特指标”突破200%警戒线！美股估值超越“玩火”水平，但也有观点认为这一指标已“过时”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-29 07:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e109fc409f8ab806263cd73c30381e11\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"457\"/></p><p>沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）曾经最钟爱的股市估值指标如今攀升至历史新高，再次引发担忧：投资者是否又在考验市场狂热的极限。</p><p>这个指标被称为<strong>巴菲特指标（Buffett Indicator）</strong>，它衡量美国上市公司股票总市值（以威尔希尔5000指数为代表）与美国国民生产总值（GNP）的比值。在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中，巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。该指标也曾被包括保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）在内的知名投资者引用。</p><p>巴菲特在2001年的一次演讲（后被《财富》摘录）中表示：“如果这一比例降到70%或80%左右，买股票对你来说可能非常划算。”他还警告说，“如果这一比例接近200%——就像在1999年和2000年一部分时间那样——你就是在玩火。”</p><p>如今，这一指标高达<strong>217%</strong>，远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值，也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05991784bdadcde4267d380d0282eafc\" tg-width=\"715\" tg-height=\"469\"/></p><p>按照这一标准，今天的美国股市正进入前所未有的水域：股票市值的扩张速度远超美国整体经济的增长。推动这波行情的主要是<strong>超大市值科技公司</strong>，它们在人工智能领域投入数十亿美元研发，并因新时代的增长前景而获得高估值倍数。</p><p>其他估值指标也在释放类似信号。根据Bespoke Investment Group的数据，标普500指数的市销率（P/S）近期升至<strong>3.33</strong>，创下历史新高。相比之下，2000年互联网泡沫时期的峰值仅为<strong>2.27</strong>，而新冠疫情后的繁荣则达到<strong>3.21</strong>后才回落。</p><p>不过，也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。过去20年，美国经济发生了巨大变化，越来越少依赖有形资产，而是更多依靠<strong>科技、软件和知识产权</strong>驱动。</p><p>在这种情况下，GDP和GNP可能低估了一个建立在数据网络和创新之上的经济体的价值。因此，全球最具生产力和创新力的美国经济，或许能够支撑更高的股票估值。</p><p>巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。但他在伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）过去两年持续构筑现金“堡垒”，同时准备把CEO职位交给格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）。公司第二季度财报显示，伯克希尔现金储备已达<strong>3441亿美元</strong>，且连续第11个季度净卖出股票。</p><p>即便这一指标可能已“过时”，但结合“奥马哈先知”当前的谨慎布局，如今飙升至极端水平的巴菲特指标，仍必然会引起市场的高度关注。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e109fc409f8ab806263cd73c30381e11","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145000178","content_text":"沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）曾经最钟爱的股市估值指标如今攀升至历史新高，再次引发担忧：投资者是否又在考验市场狂热的极限。这个指标被称为巴菲特指标（Buffett Indicator），它衡量美国上市公司股票总市值（以威尔希尔5000指数为代表）与美国国民生产总值（GNP）的比值。在2001年《财富》杂志的一篇专栏中，巴菲特称这一指标“可能是判断任何时点估值水平的最佳单一衡量标准”。该指标也曾被包括保罗·都铎·琼斯（Paul Tudor Jones）在内的知名投资者引用。巴菲特在2001年的一次演讲（后被《财富》摘录）中表示：“如果这一比例降到70%或80%左右，买股票对你来说可能非常划算。”他还警告说，“如果这一比例接近200%——就像在1999年和2000年一部分时间那样——你就是在玩火。”如今，这一指标高达217%，远超互联网泡沫时期的峰值，也超过了2021年疫情时期股市狂热时达到的190%。按照这一标准，今天的美国股市正进入前所未有的水域：股票市值的扩张速度远超美国整体经济的增长。推动这波行情的主要是超大市值科技公司，它们在人工智能领域投入数十亿美元研发，并因新时代的增长前景而获得高估值倍数。其他估值指标也在释放类似信号。根据Bespoke Investment Group的数据，标普500指数的市销率（P/S）近期升至3.33，创下历史新高。相比之下，2000年互联网泡沫时期的峰值仅为2.27，而新冠疫情后的繁荣则达到3.21后才回落。不过，也有人认为巴菲特指标的意义已不如从前。过去20年，美国经济发生了巨大变化，越来越少依赖有形资产，而是更多依靠科技、软件和知识产权驱动。在这种情况下，GDP和GNP可能低估了一个建立在数据网络和创新之上的经济体的价值。因此，全球最具生产力和创新力的美国经济，或许能够支撑更高的股票估值。巴菲特本人已经多年未对这一指标发表评论。但他在伯克希尔·哈撒韦（Berkshire Hathaway）过去两年持续构筑现金“堡垒”，同时准备把CEO职位交给格雷格·阿贝尔（Greg Abel）。公司第二季度财报显示，伯克希尔现金储备已达3441亿美元，且连续第11个季度净卖出股票。即便这一指标可能已“过时”，但结合“奥马哈先知”当前的谨慎布局，如今飙升至极端水平的巴菲特指标，仍必然会引起市场的高度关注。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":1.1,"SPY":1.1,"BRK.A":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}