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Heykid
Heykid
·
01-08
“畜牧教主马斯克"，不知道做空了没有，这货做空的话虽然裤衩都没了，但还算条汉子。最贱的就是，整天唱衰，又怂又菜，做空都不敢。
特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业
综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。
特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业
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Heykid
Heykid
·
2025-12-18
那就做空去啊，逼逼什么呢？
机构警告：扣除自动驾驶和能源业务，特斯拉汽车业务每股价值只有30到40美元
William Blair能源研究主管Jed Dorsheimer表示，特斯拉汽车业务的权重其实被大幅淡化了，我们在部分加总分析中指出，汽车本业每股价值其实只有大约30到40美元。Dorsheimer
机构警告：扣除自动驾驶和能源业务，特斯拉汽车业务每股价值只有30到40美元
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Heykid
Heykid
·
2025-12-03
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这货靠蒙对一把金融危机，打算靠这吃一辈子了，上次他就做空过特斯拉，屁股被爆开花，这次又来了
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Heykid
Heykid
·
2025-09-18
太假了！这么没节操吗？
10000台！特斯拉机器人斩获史上最大订单
马斯克的万亿薪酬赌局开始了这回真的爆了！特斯拉Optimus Gen3刚刚拿下了全球首个外部订单——整整1万台！采购方PharmAGRI制药公司计划用这些机器人实现药物生产流程的自动化，确保精准控制和高效率。而这还只是开始。马斯克自己也在疯狂加码：9月12日，他个人掏出10亿美元买入特斯拉股票，背后还绑着一个“疯狂薪酬计划”——如果他能在未来交付100万台Optimus，就能解锁价值1.2万亿美元的股票奖励。Optimus Gen3+ 有多强——它在特斯拉工厂里已经验证过，效率比人工高30%，未来成本甚至有望压到2万美元以下。也就是说，它不只“能干”，还“便宜得惊人”。
10000台！特斯拉机器人斩获史上最大订单
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Heykid
Heykid
·
2025-03-03
打什么嘴炮，干就完了。各人为自己的认知买单，又不是不能卖空。谁跟钱过不去呢，大胆作多或者大胆做空，验证你的认知！
股价“自由落体”式崩跌40%！特斯拉跌出万亿俱乐部恐怕只是开始
本周股价约17%的跌幅表明，特斯拉核心汽车业务的放缓正开始令交易员感到不安。特斯拉今年麻烦不断。分析师预计，特斯拉短期内不会对其全自动驾驶汽车计划做出有意义的更新。期权交易员为防范特斯拉股价下跌所支付的溢价达到了自去年8月市场暴跌以来的最高水平。
股价“自由落体”式崩跌40%！特斯拉跌出万亿俱乐部恐怕只是开始
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Heykid
Heykid
·
2024-06-19
那你就抓紧点做空啊，你的判断如此坚定有力，如何能错过这做空盛宴
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斯克\"，不知道做空了没有，这货做空的话虽然裤衩都没了，但还算条汉子。最贱的就是，整天唱衰，又怂又菜，做空都不敢。","listText":"“畜牧教主马斯克\"，不知道做空了没有，这货做空的话虽然裤衩都没了，但还算条汉子。最贱的就是，整天唱衰，又怂又菜，做空都不敢。","text":"“畜牧教主马斯克\"，不知道做空了没有，这货做空的话虽然裤衩都没了，但还算条汉子。最贱的就是，整天唱衰，又怂又菜，做空都不敢。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519624606548216","repostId":"2601877535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601877535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767784565,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601877535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-07 19:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601877535","media":"美股研究社","summary":"综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险</strong></p><p>我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。</p><p>即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的<strong>核心人物风险</strong>。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>储能业务：</strong></p><p><strong>装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑</strong></p><p>接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。</p><p>但光鲜数据的背后，是<strong>同比增速的快速滑落</strong>：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。</p><p>与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是<strong>单位装机量营收的持续走低</strong>。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。</p><p>综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>汽车业务：</strong></p><p><strong>交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压</strong></p><p>无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。</p><p>此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已<span>跌破</span> 4 万美元。</p><p>市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。</p><p>从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。</p><p>放眼全球市场，2025 年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。</p><p>雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>估值泡沫：</strong></p><p><strong>人形机器人预期已被过度透支</strong></p><p>我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。</p><p>但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被<strong>完全计入当前估值</strong>。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。</p><p>即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKLTlW17KYicXbduwZsUSFEKA3QhDoZBDRLD4pI17USiafzA7ib7ZgicBniaIKocAFvdFCDFy7DSsRicKibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&from=appmsg\"/><p>数据来源：营收预期（Seeking Alpha）</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场，特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力；储能业务虽有增长，但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益，早已被市场透支殆尽，当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。</p><p>更致命的是，创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机，以及由此带来的核心人物风险，正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。</p><p>综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言，现在正是最后的离场时机。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=other&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=5\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKnkt8t5QpwjNQOKyGlZz4SFiacicdM3aP4hZVCfGia7HbIYBoDxz2gubPAgoXDXhfrcLIfT2eG92icfw/640?wx_fmt=other&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&from=appmsg&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&tp=webp#imgIndex=7\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 19:16 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF 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RA SGD-H","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601877535","content_text":"用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】储能业务：装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。但光鲜数据的背后，是同比增速的快速滑落：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是单位装机量营收的持续走低。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。汽车业务：交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已跌破 4 万美元。市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，小米等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。放眼全球市场，2025 年比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。估值泡沫：人形机器人预期已被过度透支我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被完全计入当前估值。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。数据来源：营收预期（Seeking Alpha）结语在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场，特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力；储能业务虽有增长，但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益，早已被市场透支殆尽，当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。更致命的是，创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机，以及由此带来的核心人物风险，正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言，现在正是最后的离场时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":266,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":511988668543896,"gmtCreate":1766024272961,"gmtModify":1766024916854,"author":{"id":"3577104682622234","authorId":"3577104682622234","name":"Heykid","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf51fc7e80e268248e5747d923640d90","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577104682622234","authorIdStr":"3577104682622234"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"那就做空去啊，逼逼什么呢？","listText":"那就做空去啊，逼逼什么呢？","text":"那就做空去啊，逼逼什么呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/511988668543896","repostId":"2592172928","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2592172928","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1766023774,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2592172928?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-18 10:09","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"机构警告：扣除自动驾驶和能源业务，特斯拉汽车业务每股价值只有30到40美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592172928","media":"格隆汇","summary":"William Blair能源研究主管Jed Dorsheimer表示，特斯拉汽车业务的权重其实被大幅淡化了，我们在部分加总分析中指出，汽车本业每股价值其实只有大约30到40美元。Dorsheimer","content":"<html><body><p>William Blair能源研究主管Jed Dorsheimer表示，特斯拉汽车业务的权重其实被大幅淡化了，我们在部分加总分析中指出，汽车本业每股价值其实只有大约30到40美元。Dorsheimer认为，目前股价几乎完全是对尚未完全实现的未来下注，这场“转型”其实已经完成——市场不再以电动车交付量来评价特斯拉，而是聚焦在其机器人与AI的进展。\n根据他的分析，自动驾驶如今已占特斯拉整体价值超过70%，包括长期承诺的Robotaxi平台以及人形机器人Optimus。能源业务的成长也非常明显，其价值已经与汽车业务相当，甚至可能略高。从部分加总的角度来看，若扣除市场对自动驾驶软件与能源储存事业的高度期待，剩下的电动车公司本体，相对目前股价显得大幅被高估。Dorsheimer看好特斯拉长期的能源布局，并指出能源事业是市场尚未充分重视、却极具潜力的未来获利引擎。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n机构警告：扣除自动驾驶和能源业务，特斯拉汽车业务每股价值只有30到40美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-18 10:09 北京时间 <a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>William Blair能源研究主管Jed Dorsheimer表示，特斯拉汽车业务的权重其实被大幅淡化了，我们在部分加总分析中指出，汽车本业每股价值其实只有大约30到40美元。Dorsheimer认为，目前股价几乎完全是对尚未完全实现的未来下注，这场“转型”其实已经完成——市场不再以电动车交付量来评价特斯拉，而是聚焦在其机器人与AI的进展。\n根据他的分析，自动驾驶如今已占特斯拉整体价值超过...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2326559502.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity P/A SGD-H","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4511":"特斯拉概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU1551013425.SGD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS H2-SGD","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY 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Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2592172928","content_text":"William Blair能源研究主管Jed Dorsheimer表示，特斯拉汽车业务的权重其实被大幅淡化了，我们在部分加总分析中指出，汽车本业每股价值其实只有大约30到40美元。Dorsheimer认为，目前股价几乎完全是对尚未完全实现的未来下注，这场“转型”其实已经完成——市场不再以电动车交付量来评价特斯拉，而是聚焦在其机器人与AI的进展。\n根据他的分析，自动驾驶如今已占特斯拉整体价值超过70%，包括长期承诺的Robotaxi平台以及人形机器人Optimus。能源业务的成长也非常明显，其价值已经与汽车业务相当，甚至可能略高。从部分加总的角度来看，若扣除市场对自动驾驶软件与能源储存事业的高度期待，剩下的电动车公司本体，相对目前股价显得大幅被高估。Dorsheimer看好特斯拉长期的能源布局，并指出能源事业是市场尚未充分重视、却极具潜力的未来获利引擎。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.97,"TSYW.SI":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":352,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":506514989351944,"gmtCreate":1764691566920,"gmtModify":1764691611985,"author":{"id":"3577104682622234","authorId":"3577104682622234","name":"Heykid","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf51fc7e80e268248e5747d923640d90","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577104682622234","authorIdStr":"3577104682622234"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 这货靠蒙对一把金融危机，打算靠这吃一辈子了，上次他就做空过特斯拉，屁股被爆开花，这次又来了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 这货靠蒙对一把金融危机，打算靠这吃一辈子了，上次他就做空过特斯拉，屁股被爆开花，这次又来了","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 这货靠蒙对一把金融危机，打算靠这吃一辈子了，上次他就做空过特斯拉，屁股被爆开花，这次又来了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506514989351944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000618","authorId":"9000000000000618","name":"EarlBoyle","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000618","authorIdStr":"9000000000000618"},"content":"這空頭老哥真是屢敗屢戰啊[笑哭]","text":"這空頭老哥真是屢敗屢戰啊[笑哭]","html":"這空頭老哥真是屢敗屢戰啊[笑哭]"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000382","authorId":"9000000000000382","name":"StewardTout","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9833086a2eb5862f61e00a211a246a76","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000382","authorIdStr":"9000000000000382"},"content":"空头老哥又來送人頭了[吃瓜]","text":"空头老哥又來送人頭了[吃瓜]","html":"空头老哥又來送人頭了[吃瓜]"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479773364109312,"gmtCreate":1758156529259,"gmtModify":1758160159544,"author":{"id":"3577104682622234","authorId":"3577104682622234","name":"Heykid","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf51fc7e80e268248e5747d923640d90","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577104682622234","authorIdStr":"3577104682622234"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"太假了！这么没节操吗？","listText":"太假了！这么没节操吗？","text":"太假了！这么没节操吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479773364109312","repostId":"2568445968","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2568445968","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1758153958,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2568445968?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-18 08:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"10000台！特斯拉机器人斩获史上最大订单","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2568445968","media":"机器人领航员","summary":"马斯克的万亿薪酬赌局开始了这回真的爆了！特斯拉Optimus Gen3刚刚拿下了全球首个外部订单——整整1万台！采购方PharmAGRI制药公司计划用这些机器人实现药物生产流程的自动化，确保精准控制和高效率。而这还只是开始。马斯克自己也在疯狂加码：9月12日，他个人掏出10亿美元买入特斯拉股票，背后还绑着一个“疯狂薪酬计划”——如果他能在未来交付100万台Optimus，就能解锁价值1.2万亿美元的股票奖励。Optimus Gen3+ 有多强——它在特斯拉工厂里已经验证过，效率比人工高30%，未来成本甚至有望压到2万美元以下。也就是说，它不只“能干”，还“便宜得惊人”。","content":"<html><body><article><p>马斯克的万亿薪酬赌局开始了</p><p>这回真的爆了！<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>Optimus Gen3刚刚拿下了全球首个外部订单——整整1万台！采购方PharmAGRI制药公司计划用这些机器人实现药物生产流程的自动化，确保精准控制和高效率。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/gXwSBLiaU0hTqCdL5B5AFE6TAsUhoEzwIJnHvruYWbxeZibUGW3w9Nu68q5wQ3WSSBUKibcxlVXzsSgNMCnTxJib1w/640?wx_fmt=jpeg\"/><p>而这还只是开始。马斯克自己也在疯狂加码：9月12日，他个人掏出10亿美元买入特斯拉股票，背后还绑着一个“疯狂薪酬计划”——如果他能在未来交付100万台Optimus，就能解锁价值1.2万亿美元的股票奖励。</p><p>Optimus Gen3+ 有多强——它在特斯拉工厂里已经验证过，效率比人工高30%，未来成本甚至有望压到2万美元以下。也就是说，它不只“能干”，还“便宜得惊人”。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10000台！特斯拉机器人斩获史上最大订单</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n10000台！特斯拉机器人斩获史上最大订单\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-18 08:05 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250918080353a72721ae&s=b><strong>机器人领航员</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>马斯克的万亿薪酬赌局开始了这回真的爆了！特斯拉Optimus Gen3刚刚拿下了全球首个外部订单——整整1万台！采购方PharmAGRI制药公司计划用这些机器人实现药物生产流程的自动化，确保精准控制和高效率。而这还只是开始。马斯克自己也在疯狂加码：9月12日，他个人掏出10亿美元买入特斯拉股票，背后还绑着一个“疯狂薪酬计划”——如果他能在未来交付100万台Optimus，就能解锁价值1.2万亿美元...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250918080353a72721ae&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0097036916.USD":"贝莱德美国增长A2 USD","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC 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FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU1232071149.USD":"AZ FUND 1 GLOBAL GROWTH SELECTOR \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","BK4604":"机器人概念","LU1674673691.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (USD) INC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","TSLA":"特斯拉","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0323591593.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLOBAL QUALITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU2357305700.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence ET H2-SGD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250918080353a72721ae&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2568445968","content_text":"马斯克的万亿薪酬赌局开始了这回真的爆了！特斯拉Optimus Gen3刚刚拿下了全球首个外部订单——整整1万台！采购方PharmAGRI制药公司计划用这些机器人实现药物生产流程的自动化，确保精准控制和高效率。而这还只是开始。马斯克自己也在疯狂加码：9月12日，他个人掏出10亿美元买入特斯拉股票，背后还绑着一个“疯狂薪酬计划”——如果他能在未来交付100万台Optimus，就能解锁价值1.2万亿美元的股票奖励。Optimus Gen3+ 有多强——它在特斯拉工厂里已经验证过，效率比人工高30%，未来成本甚至有望压到2万美元以下。也就是说，它不只“能干”，还“便宜得惊人”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.5,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409333746979008,"gmtCreate":1740952927562,"gmtModify":1740965332788,"author":{"id":"3577104682622234","authorId":"3577104682622234","name":"Heykid","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf51fc7e80e268248e5747d923640d90","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577104682622234","authorIdStr":"3577104682622234"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"打什么嘴炮，干就完了。各人为自己的认知买单，又不是不能卖空。谁跟钱过不去呢，大胆作多或者大胆做空，验证你的认知！","listText":"打什么嘴炮，干就完了。各人为自己的认知买单，又不是不能卖空。谁跟钱过不去呢，大胆作多或者大胆做空，验证你的认知！","text":"打什么嘴炮，干就完了。各人为自己的认知买单，又不是不能卖空。谁跟钱过不去呢，大胆作多或者大胆做空，验证你的认知！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409333746979008","repostId":"2514543325","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2514543325","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1740747550,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2514543325?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-02-28 20:59","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"股价“自由落体”式崩跌40%！特斯拉跌出万亿俱乐部恐怕只是开始","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2514543325","media":"智通财经","summary":"本周股价约17%的跌幅表明，特斯拉核心汽车业务的放缓正开始令交易员感到不安。特斯拉今年麻烦不断。分析师预计，特斯拉短期内不会对其全自动驾驶汽车计划做出有意义的更新。期权交易员为防范特斯拉股价下跌所支付的溢价达到了自去年8月市场暴跌以来的最高水平。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>随着<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价持续下挫，部分投资者正为未来更大的下跌空间做准备。</p><p>这家由马斯克领导的电动汽车公司股价已较2024年末高点下跌约40%，这一跌势在近期加速，原因是数据显示特斯拉1月在欧洲的汽车销量近乎腰斩。本周股价约17%的跌幅表明，特斯拉核心汽车业务的放缓正开始令交易员感到不安。对于一只涨跌在很大程度上取决于投资者热情而非基本面的股票来说，这并不是什么好消息。</p><p>“对于像特斯拉这样估值高昂的股票，真正的难题在于难以判断其底部，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IBKR\">盈透证券</a>首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示，“由于特斯拉长期以来一直违背传统估值标准，其底部更多取决于投资者情绪，而非价值投资者可能使用的常规指标。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3351dc6eb27aa808ea4609caca3d3438\" tg-width=\"486\" tg-height=\"272\"/></p><p>特斯拉今年麻烦不断。美国总统大选后，由于投资者押注马斯克将受益于与美国总统特朗普的密切关系，其股价不断飙升。但今年1月，该公司报告了疲弱的第四季度交付数据，年度销售额出现十多年来的首次下滑，投资者信心随之减弱。随后发布的财报显示季度利润低于预期，同时公司下调了2025年的销售展望。</p><p>本周，特斯拉市值自去年11月以来首次跌破1万亿美元，使其在美国最具价值公司的排名中落后于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>哈撒韦(BRK.A.US)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>(AVGO.US)。其股价距离追平历史上最长的连跌纪录仅一步之遥。</p><p><strong>缺乏催化剂</strong></p><p>目前，可以推动特斯拉股价上涨的催化剂寥寥无几。分析师预计，特斯拉短期内不会对其全自动驾驶汽车计划做出有意义的更新。近日，特斯拉FSD辅助驾驶功能在中国正式上线，订阅价格为6.4万元人民币。然而，相比之下，竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>(01211)本月早些时候表示，未来几乎所有车型都将免费配备高级驾驶辅助功能。另外，马斯克对政治事务的专注也令投资者感到担忧，他们希望马斯克能花更多时间经营这家电动汽车制造商。</p><p>特斯拉的高估值是另一个需要谨慎的理由。特斯拉股票的远期市盈率为92倍，相比之下，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数为21倍，特斯拉的大型科技股同行平均为28倍。其近期股价下跌正值大盘走弱之际，标普500指数从本月创下的历史高点下跌了约5%。</p><p>上述任何一个因素都可能是部分投资者准备迎接更多动荡，而非逢低买入的原因。衡量期权头寸的一项指标——一个月期权的隐含偏斜度——在上周自去年11月以来首次转为看跌，这表明交易员正在寻求防范未来股价下跌的保护。期权交易员为防范特斯拉股价下跌所支付的溢价达到了自去年8月市场暴跌以来的最高水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718c445d97d3ddbd58fbd2b6e81a81b1\" tg-width=\"499\" tg-height=\"276\"/></p><p>研究图表以预测股票走势的技术策略师同样谨慎。其中一个原因是该股票当前下跌的强劲势头，以及其过往剧烈波动的历史。</p><p>Fundstrat技术策略主管Mark Newton预计，该股将从275美元的水平反弹，这一价位意味着将较周四收盘价低约2.5%。他表示，若跌破这一价位，该股可能会进一步试探260美元的支撑位，这是该股在大选前曾触及的水平。</p><p>诚然，即便是最看空特斯拉的投资者也清楚，即使基本面看起来很糟糕，这只股票的情绪也可能瞬间扭转。最近的例子出现在大选后的反弹期间，当时公司股价在短短29个交易日内几乎翻了一番。</p><p>然而，Roundhill Financial首席执行官David Mazza表示，那些指望出现转机的投资者可能会经历一段艰难时期。</p><p>他表示：“我们预计特斯拉短期内仍将继续承压，因为投资者在权衡马斯克‘第一伙伴’溢价带来的好处与电动汽车业务在战略重要市场挣扎的现实。鉴于这些相互矛盾的叙事，很难说这只股票的正确走势是什么。”</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>股价“自由落体”式崩跌40%！特斯拉跌出万亿俱乐部恐怕只是开始</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n股价“自由落体”式崩跌40%！特斯拉跌出万亿俱乐部恐怕只是开始\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-02-28 20:59 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1256421.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着特斯拉股价持续下挫，部分投资者正为未来更大的下跌空间做准备。这家由马斯克领导的电动汽车公司股价已较2024年末高点下跌约40%，这一跌势在近期加速，原因是数据显示特斯拉1月在欧洲的汽车销量近乎腰斩。本周股价约17%的跌幅表明，特斯拉核心汽车业务的放缓正开始令交易员感到不安。对于一只涨跌在很大程度上取决于投资者热情而非基本面的股票来说，这并不是什么好消息。“对于像特斯拉这样估值高昂的股票，真正的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1256421.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e0d9f23e003547a93295253f05b6a55","relate_stocks":{"LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU2360107168.USD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU2290526834.HKD":"BGF NEXT GENERATION TECHNOLOGY \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU1066051498.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AM2\" (USD) INC","LU1066053197.SGD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED 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INC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1256421.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2514543325","content_text":"随着特斯拉股价持续下挫，部分投资者正为未来更大的下跌空间做准备。这家由马斯克领导的电动汽车公司股价已较2024年末高点下跌约40%，这一跌势在近期加速，原因是数据显示特斯拉1月在欧洲的汽车销量近乎腰斩。本周股价约17%的跌幅表明，特斯拉核心汽车业务的放缓正开始令交易员感到不安。对于一只涨跌在很大程度上取决于投资者热情而非基本面的股票来说，这并不是什么好消息。“对于像特斯拉这样估值高昂的股票，真正的难题在于难以判断其底部，”盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick表示，“由于特斯拉长期以来一直违背传统估值标准，其底部更多取决于投资者情绪，而非价值投资者可能使用的常规指标。”特斯拉今年麻烦不断。美国总统大选后，由于投资者押注马斯克将受益于与美国总统特朗普的密切关系，其股价不断飙升。但今年1月，该公司报告了疲弱的第四季度交付数据，年度销售额出现十多年来的首次下滑，投资者信心随之减弱。随后发布的财报显示季度利润低于预期，同时公司下调了2025年的销售展望。本周，特斯拉市值自去年11月以来首次跌破1万亿美元，使其在美国最具价值公司的排名中落后于伯克希尔哈撒韦(BRK.A.US)和博通(AVGO.US)。其股价距离追平历史上最长的连跌纪录仅一步之遥。缺乏催化剂目前，可以推动特斯拉股价上涨的催化剂寥寥无几。分析师预计，特斯拉短期内不会对其全自动驾驶汽车计划做出有意义的更新。近日，特斯拉FSD辅助驾驶功能在中国正式上线，订阅价格为6.4万元人民币。然而，相比之下，竞争对手比亚迪(01211)本月早些时候表示，未来几乎所有车型都将免费配备高级驾驶辅助功能。另外，马斯克对政治事务的专注也令投资者感到担忧，他们希望马斯克能花更多时间经营这家电动汽车制造商。特斯拉的高估值是另一个需要谨慎的理由。特斯拉股票的远期市盈率为92倍，相比之下，标普500指数为21倍，特斯拉的大型科技股同行平均为28倍。其近期股价下跌正值大盘走弱之际，标普500指数从本月创下的历史高点下跌了约5%。上述任何一个因素都可能是部分投资者准备迎接更多动荡，而非逢低买入的原因。衡量期权头寸的一项指标——一个月期权的隐含偏斜度——在上周自去年11月以来首次转为看跌，这表明交易员正在寻求防范未来股价下跌的保护。期权交易员为防范特斯拉股价下跌所支付的溢价达到了自去年8月市场暴跌以来的最高水平。研究图表以预测股票走势的技术策略师同样谨慎。其中一个原因是该股票当前下跌的强劲势头，以及其过往剧烈波动的历史。Fundstrat技术策略主管Mark Newton预计，该股将从275美元的水平反弹，这一价位意味着将较周四收盘价低约2.5%。他表示，若跌破这一价位，该股可能会进一步试探260美元的支撑位，这是该股在大选前曾触及的水平。诚然，即便是最看空特斯拉的投资者也清楚，即使基本面看起来很糟糕，这只股票的情绪也可能瞬间扭转。最近的例子出现在大选后的反弹期间，当时公司股价在短短29个交易日内几乎翻了一番。然而，Roundhill Financial首席执行官David Mazza表示，那些指望出现转机的投资者可能会经历一段艰难时期。他表示：“我们预计特斯拉短期内仍将继续承压，因为投资者在权衡马斯克‘第一伙伴’溢价带来的好处与电动汽车业务在战略重要市场挣扎的现实。鉴于这些相互矛盾的叙事，很难说这只股票的正确走势是什么。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318218558591240,"gmtCreate":1718728629625,"gmtModify":1718732439655,"author":{"id":"3577104682622234","authorId":"3577104682622234","name":"Heykid","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf51fc7e80e268248e5747d923640d90","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577104682622234","authorIdStr":"3577104682622234"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"那你就抓紧点做空啊，你的判断如此坚定有力，如何能错过这做空盛宴","listText":"那你就抓紧点做空啊，你的判断如此坚定有力，如何能错过这做空盛宴","text":"那你就抓紧点做空啊，你的判断如此坚定有力，如何能错过这做空盛宴","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/318218558591240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}