个人中心 - 老虎社区

db17dc

IP属地：未知

帖子 · 117帖子 · 117
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-26
  Like and comment
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  961 3
  4
  分享
  举报
- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-24
  Like and comment
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,408 2
  7
  分享
  举报
- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-23
  Like pls
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,512 2
  5
  分享
  举报
- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-22
  Lile pls
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,443 评论
  6
  分享
  举报
- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-21
  Like pls
  Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>
  Futures mixed. Treasury yields extend gains. Verizon Communications Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Co
  Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>
  1,176 评论
  13
  分享
  举报
- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-19
  Like and comment
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>
  This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>
  1,248 1
  7
  分享
  举报
- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-18
  Like and comment
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,066 评论
  5
  分享
  举报
- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-17
  Like and comment
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,277 1
  6
  分享
  举报
- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-14
  Lile and comment
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,726 1
  5
  分享
  举报
- db17dcdb17dc
  ·2021-07-13
  Like and comment
  Orbsat Corp shares jumps nearly 100% in early trading,as the company's Global Telesat Communications Unit Approved as an Alibaba gold supplier.<blockquote>Orbsat Corp股价在早盘交易中上涨近100%，该公司的全球Telesat通信部门被批准为阿里巴巴-SW金牌供应商。</blockquote>
  Orbsat Corp shares jumps nearly 100% in early trading,as the company's Global Telesat Communications
  Orbsat Corp shares jumps nearly 100% in early trading,as the company's Global Telesat Communications Unit Approved as an Alibaba gold supplier.<blockquote>Orbsat Corp股价在早盘交易中上涨近100%，该公司的全球Telesat通信部门被批准为阿里巴巴-SW金牌供应商。</blockquote>
  2,415 1
  4
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3579253238684353","uuid":"3579253238684353","gmtCreate":1616159214841,"gmtModify":1616165102933,"name":"db17dc","pinyin":"computers80","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":12,"headSize":225,"tweetSize":117,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":1,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.08.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001}],"userBadgeCount":1,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":800554735,"gmtCreate":1627309532427,"gmtModify":1631883848382,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800554735","repostId":"1172003910","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":961,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174718885,"gmtCreate":1627138547847,"gmtModify":1631883848396,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174718885","repostId":"1109439356","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174047673,"gmtCreate":1627054509592,"gmtModify":1631883848410,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174047673","repostId":"2153983997","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172510696,"gmtCreate":1626965726115,"gmtModify":1631883848424,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lile pls","listText":"Lile pls","text":"Lile pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172510696","repostId":"2153671844","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176167042,"gmtCreate":1626872637486,"gmtModify":1631883848436,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176167042","repostId":"1199453596","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199453596","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626868481,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199453596?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 19:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199453596","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Futures mixed.\nTreasury yields extend gains.\nVerizon Communications Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Co","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Futures&nbsp;mixed.</li>  <li>Treasury yields extend gains.</li>  <li>Verizon Communications Inc., Johnson &amp; Johnson, Coca-Cola Co and Anthem, Inc. posted earnings results in premarket.</li>  <li>Bitcoin Storms Back Over $31,000.</li> </ul> (July&nbsp;21)&nbsp;US equity futures, European bourses and Treasury yields rose for a second day clawing back much of the week's losses that were sparked by fears over spiking COVID-19 cases, as well as the \"peak growth\" and \"peak inflation\" narratives, as bargain hunters helped the S&amp;P 500 to all but erase Monday’s slide in a rally led by cyclicals such as industrial stocks even though the dollar notched further gains on concerns over the impact of a fast-spreading coronavirus variant.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期货涨跌互现。</li><li>美国国债收益率扩大涨幅。</li><li>威瑞森通信公司、强生公司、可口可乐公司和Anthem公司在盘前公布了收益结果。</li><li>比特币抢回了31000多美元。</li></ul>（7月21日）美国股指期货、欧洲股市和美国国债收益率连续第二天上涨，收复了本周的大部分跌幅，这些跌幅是由对新冠肺炎病例激增以及“增长峰值”和“通胀峰值”的担忧引发的，因为逢低买入者帮助标普500几乎抹去了周一在工业股等周期性股票引领的反弹中的跌势，尽管美元因对快速传播的冠状病毒变种影响的担忧而进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>“The correction we had is healthy to clear some of the excess out of the market and to get better balancing between growth and value,</b>”&nbsp;Katie Koch, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s co-head of fundamental equity, said on Bloomberg Television. “From a long-term perspective we are really still very constructive on equity markets, so we’d encourage clients to be overweight risk assets.”</p><p><blockquote><b>“我们进行的调整是健康的，可以清除市场上的一些过剩产品，并在增长和价值之间获得更好的平衡，</b>”高盛资产管理公司基本面股票联席主管凯蒂·科赫在彭博电视台表示。“从长期角度来看，我们对股市仍然非常有建设性，因此我们鼓励客户成为跑赢大盘风险资产。”</blockquote></p><p> At 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 77 points, or 0.22%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were ip 2.75&nbsp;points, or 0.06% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 45.25 points, or 0.31%.&nbsp;Bitcoin recovered from its drop below 30,000 jumping back over $31,000 ahead of a conference that sees Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Cathie Woodspeak on cryptos.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:55，道指E-minis上涨77点，即0.22%，标普500 E-minis上涨2.75点，即0.06%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌45.25点，即0.31%。比特币在Elon Musk、Jack Dorsey和Cathie Woodspeak讨论加密货币的会议之前，股价跌破30,000美元，反弹至31,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc4ef529489e25f7c52e4a3f54940d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是当今美国一些最大的推动者：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cryptocurrency-related stocks jump in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading, tracking a rebound for Bitcoin back above the $30,000 level. Marathon Digital (MARA) rises 6.9% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) gains 6.3%.</li>  <li>Moderna (MRNA) slips 1.5% ahead of its inclusion into the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>  <li>Netflix (NFLX) gains 0.3% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading with most analysts maintaining a positive view on the stock despite second-quarter results and forecast for subscriber growth that came in below expectations.</li>  <li>Next shares surge as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the U.K. retailer raised its profit forecast again as shoppers returned to stores after the end of lockdowns. RBC sees consensus estimates being increased by mid-to-high single digits.</li>  <li>Thule rises as much as 11% in its steepest intraday gain since Feb. 10 as the maker of bike racks and bags beats the highest profit estimate in the consensus range.</li>  <li>ASML shares rise as much as 4.6%, the most intraday since May 5, after the company reported record orders that Oddo BHF (outperform) says were “slightly above expectations.”</li>  <li>SAP’s shares fall more than 5.1% after earnings, with analysts underwhelmed by the software giant’s slightly raised outlook for cloud revenue.</li>  <li>Ubisoft shares drop as much as 4.3% to a two-month low after giving a sales update. Jefferies notes the video game maker’s guidance remains a wide range.</li>  <li>Daimler shares fall as much as 4% in Frankfurt after lowering the sales outlook for its Mercedes-Benz division amid a chip shortage. Warburg says the reduction “is clearly negative” while noting that the margin target corridor for Mercedes-Benz Cars and Vans was confirmed.</li> </ul> <b>Financial Result&nbsp;posted&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>加密货币相关股票在盘前交易中上涨，追随比特币反弹至30,000美元上方。Marathon Digital(MARA)上涨6.9%，Riot区块链(RIOT)上涨6.3%。</li><li>Moderna(MRNA)在纳入标普500指数之前下跌1.5%。</li><li>Netflix(NFLX)在盘前交易中上涨0.3%，尽管第二季度业绩和用户增长预测低于预期，但大多数分析师仍对该股保持积极看法。</li><li>随着封锁结束后购物者重返商店，这家英国零售商再次上调了利润预期，Next股价飙升11%，为2020年4月以来的最高水平。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)预计共识预期将增加中高个位数。</li><li>Thule股价上涨11%，创2月10日以来最大盘中涨幅，这家自行车架和包袋制造商的利润超出了市场普遍预期的最高利润预期。</li><li>ASML股价上涨4.6%，为5月5日以来最大盘中涨幅，此前该公司报告订单创纪录，Oddo BHF（跑赢大盘）称“略高于预期”。</li><li>SAP公布财报后股价下跌超过5.1%，分析师对这家软件巨头略微上调的云收入前景印象不深。</li><li>育碧发布销售更新后，股价下跌4.3%，至两个月低点。杰富瑞指出，这家视频游戏制造商的指导范围仍然很广。</li><li>由于芯片短缺，戴姆勒下调了梅赛德斯-奔驰部门的销售前景，该公司股价在法兰克福下跌4%。华宝表示，这一下降“显然是负面的”，同时指出梅赛德斯-奔驰轿车和货车的利润率目标走廊已得到确认。</li></ul><b>盘前公布的财务业绩：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;ASML</b>-ASML reports €4.0 billion net sales and €1.0 billion net income in Q2 2021 Net sales now expected to grow by around 35% in 2021.Q2 net sales of €4.0 billion, gross margin of 50.9%, net income of €1.0 billion; Q2 net bookings of €8.3 billion; ASML expects Q3 2021 net sales between €5.2 billion and €5.4 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 52%; ASML announces a new share buyback program of up to €9 billion to be executed by December 31, 2023.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）ASML</b>-ASML报告2021年第二季度净销售额为40亿欧元，净利润为10亿欧元。目前预计2021年净销售额将增长35%左右。第二季度净销售额为40亿欧元，毛利率为50.9%，净利润为10亿欧元；第二季度净预订量为83亿欧元；ASML预计2021年第三季度净销售额在52亿欧元至54亿欧元之间，毛利率在51%至52%之间；ASML宣布一项高达90亿欧元的新股票回购计划，将于2023年12月31日执行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Coca-Cola</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;Coca-Cola rallied almost 2% in premarket trading following an upbeat quarter.&nbsp;Coca-Cola came in 12 cents above estimates withadjusted quarterly earnings of 68 cents per share, with revenue beating forecasts as venues like stadiums and movie theaters reopened.&nbsp;Coca-Cola also raised its full-year forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）可口可乐</b>-可口可乐在经历了一个乐观的季度后，在盘前交易中上涨了近2%。可口可乐的调整后季度收益为每股68美分，比预期高出12美分，随着体育场和电影院等场所重新开放，收入超出预期。可口可乐还上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;</b><b>Verizon</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;Verizon beats on Q2 earnings, issues robust FY21 outlook. Verizon Communications Inc reported second-quarter FY21 operating revenue growth of 10.9% year-on-year to $33.8 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $32.68 billion. Wireless revenue growth, strong Fios and Verizon Media results, and increased wireless equipment revenue drove the revenue numbers.</p><p><blockquote><b>3) </b><b>Verizon</b>-Verizon第二季度盈利好于预期，发布了强劲的2021财年前景。Verizon Communications Inc公布2021财年第二季度营业收入同比增长10.9%至338亿美元，超出分析师预期的326.8亿美元。无线收入增长、强劲的Fios和Verizon Media业绩以及无线设备收入的增加推动了收入数字。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson</b> - Johnson &amp; Johnson Q2 earnings beat expectations; raises FY21 outlook, sees $2.5B sales from COVID vaccine. Johnson &amp; Johnson reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $2.48 per share, almost 50% higher than the $1.67 posted a year ago and better than the consensus of $2.27. Net sales increased 27% Y/Y to $23.3 billion, and ahead of the $22.1 billion consensus.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）强生</b>-强生Q2盈利超预期；上调2021财年展望，预计COVID疫苗销售额为2.5 B美元。强生公司报告第二季度调整后每股收益为2.48美元，比一年前的1.67美元高出近50%，也好于市场普遍预期的2.27美元。净销售额同比增长27%至233亿美元，高于市场预期的221亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury&nbsp;10-year yields rose further above 1.2% though it remains to be seen if the recovery in yields has legs amid lingering concerns about the delta virus variant that led traders to&nbsp;pare back&nbsp;bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Treasuries bear-steepened with long-end yields cheaper by 3bp-4bp as U.S. stock futures rise to weekly highs, with focus turning to corporate earnings. Treasury 10-year yields 1.243%, were cheaper by ~2bp on the day and mildly underperforming bunds and gilts; long-end-led losses steepen 2s10s and 5s30s by ~2bp. The Asian session produced gains for Treasuries, led by Aussie bonds, that began to erode during European morning helped by 10-year futures block sale. U.S. session’s main event is 20-year bond reopening.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率进一步升至1.2%以上，但由于对delta病毒变种的担忧挥之不去，导致交易员削减了对美联储加息的押注，收益率的复苏是否持续还有待观察。随着美国股指期货升至周高点，美国国债熊市加剧，长期收益率下跌3bp-4bp，焦点转向企业盈利。10年期国债收益率为1.243%，当日下跌约2个基点，表现略逊于德国国债和英国国债；长端led损耗使2s10s和5s30s陡峭约2bp。亚洲时段，以澳大利亚债券为首的美国国债上涨，但在10年期期货大宗销售的帮助下，美国国债在欧洲早盘开始下跌。美国时段的主要事件是20年期债券重新开放。</blockquote></p><p> In FX, the dollar index edged up 0.07% to 93.030, with the euro down 0.07% to $1.1771. The Bloomberg dollar index advanced to its highest since early April and risk-sensitive currencies rallied as a slew of corporate earnings took the focus off the coronavirus. The Aussie headed for its longest run of losses since September amid stricter virus curbs and a weaker-than-expected retail sales print. The Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar led G-10 gains while the yen underperformed.</p><p><blockquote>外汇方面，美元指数小幅上涨0.07%至93.030，欧元指数下跌0.07%至1.1771美元。彭博美元指数升至4月初以来的最高水平，随着一系列企业财报将人们的注意力从冠状病毒上转移开来，对风险敏感的货币上涨。由于更严格的病毒限制措施和弱于预期的零售销售数据，澳元将迎来自9月份以来最长的跌幅。挪威克朗和新西兰元领涨G-10，而日元表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> In commodities, Brent crude oil climbed back above $70 a barrel. The precious metals complex moved in tandem with yields, with spot gold in a tight range just above USD 1,800/oz (1,803-13/oz) and spot silver north of USD 25/oz (24.76-25.12/oz). Base metals have nursed overnight losses as the risk appetite across the markets offers base metals with some solace from China’s NDRC resuming its jawboning.<b>Chinese state media noted that China is to auction 30k tonnes of copper, 90k tonnes of aluminium, and 50k tonnes of zinc from state reserves later this month</b>, whilst the NDRC urged stepping up supervision on commodity prices and ensure overall price level targets this year.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品方面，布伦特原油回升至每桶70美元上方。贵金属综合体与收益率同步波动，现货黄金窄幅波动，略高于1800美元/盎司（1803-13美元/盎司），现货白银高于25美元/盎司（24.76-25.12美元/盎司）。基本金属隔夜下跌，因为整个市场的风险偏好为基本金属提供了一些安慰，中国国家发改委恢复了其言论。<b>中国官方媒体指出，中国将于本月晚些时候拍卖国家储备中的3万吨铜、9万吨铝和5万吨锌</b>同时，国家发改委敦促加强大宗商品价格监管，确保今年物价总水平目标。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Wednesday<blockquote>周三美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 19:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Futures&nbsp;mixed.</li>  <li>Treasury yields extend gains.</li>  <li>Verizon Communications Inc., Johnson &amp; Johnson, Coca-Cola Co and Anthem, Inc. posted earnings results in premarket.</li>  <li>Bitcoin Storms Back Over $31,000.</li> </ul> (July&nbsp;21)&nbsp;US equity futures, European bourses and Treasury yields rose for a second day clawing back much of the week's losses that were sparked by fears over spiking COVID-19 cases, as well as the \"peak growth\" and \"peak inflation\" narratives, as bargain hunters helped the S&amp;P 500 to all but erase Monday’s slide in a rally led by cyclicals such as industrial stocks even though the dollar notched further gains on concerns over the impact of a fast-spreading coronavirus variant.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>期货涨跌互现。</li><li>美国国债收益率扩大涨幅。</li><li>威瑞森通信公司、强生公司、可口可乐公司和Anthem公司在盘前公布了收益结果。</li><li>比特币抢回了31000多美元。</li></ul>（7月21日）美国股指期货、欧洲股市和美国国债收益率连续第二天上涨，收复了本周的大部分跌幅，这些跌幅是由对新冠肺炎病例激增以及“增长峰值”和“通胀峰值”的担忧引发的，因为逢低买入者帮助标普500几乎抹去了周一在工业股等周期性股票引领的反弹中的跌势，尽管美元因对快速传播的冠状病毒变种影响的担忧而进一步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <b>“The correction we had is healthy to clear some of the excess out of the market and to get better balancing between growth and value,</b>”&nbsp;Katie Koch, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s co-head of fundamental equity, said on Bloomberg Television. “From a long-term perspective we are really still very constructive on equity markets, so we’d encourage clients to be overweight risk assets.”</p><p><blockquote><b>“我们进行的调整是健康的，可以清除市场上的一些过剩产品，并在增长和价值之间获得更好的平衡，</b>”高盛资产管理公司基本面股票联席主管凯蒂·科赫在彭博电视台表示。“从长期角度来看，我们对股市仍然非常有建设性，因此我们鼓励客户成为跑赢大盘风险资产。”</blockquote></p><p> At 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 77 points, or 0.22%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were ip 2.75&nbsp;points, or 0.06% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 45.25 points, or 0.31%.&nbsp;Bitcoin recovered from its drop below 30,000 jumping back over $31,000 ahead of a conference that sees Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Cathie Woodspeak on cryptos.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午7:55，道指E-minis上涨77点，即0.22%，标普500 E-minis上涨2.75点，即0.06%，纳斯达克100 E-minis下跌45.25点，即0.31%。比特币在Elon Musk、Jack Dorsey和Cathie Woodspeak讨论加密货币的会议之前，股价跌破30,000美元，反弹至31,000美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62cc4ef529489e25f7c52e4a3f54940d\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是当今美国一些最大的推动者：</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cryptocurrency-related stocks jump in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading, tracking a rebound for Bitcoin back above the $30,000 level. Marathon Digital (MARA) rises 6.9% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) gains 6.3%.</li>  <li>Moderna (MRNA) slips 1.5% ahead of its inclusion into the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>  <li>Netflix (NFLX) gains 0.3% in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading with most analysts maintaining a positive view on the stock despite second-quarter results and forecast for subscriber growth that came in below expectations.</li>  <li>Next shares surge as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the U.K. retailer raised its profit forecast again as shoppers returned to stores after the end of lockdowns. RBC sees consensus estimates being increased by mid-to-high single digits.</li>  <li>Thule rises as much as 11% in its steepest intraday gain since Feb. 10 as the maker of bike racks and bags beats the highest profit estimate in the consensus range.</li>  <li>ASML shares rise as much as 4.6%, the most intraday since May 5, after the company reported record orders that Oddo BHF (outperform) says were “slightly above expectations.”</li>  <li>SAP’s shares fall more than 5.1% after earnings, with analysts underwhelmed by the software giant’s slightly raised outlook for cloud revenue.</li>  <li>Ubisoft shares drop as much as 4.3% to a two-month low after giving a sales update. Jefferies notes the video game maker’s guidance remains a wide range.</li>  <li>Daimler shares fall as much as 4% in Frankfurt after lowering the sales outlook for its Mercedes-Benz division amid a chip shortage. Warburg says the reduction “is clearly negative” while noting that the margin target corridor for Mercedes-Benz Cars and Vans was confirmed.</li> </ul> <b>Financial Result&nbsp;posted&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>加密货币相关股票在盘前交易中上涨，追随比特币反弹至30,000美元上方。Marathon Digital(MARA)上涨6.9%，Riot区块链(RIOT)上涨6.3%。</li><li>Moderna(MRNA)在纳入标普500指数之前下跌1.5%。</li><li>Netflix(NFLX)在盘前交易中上涨0.3%，尽管第二季度业绩和用户增长预测低于预期，但大多数分析师仍对该股保持积极看法。</li><li>随着封锁结束后购物者重返商店，这家英国零售商再次上调了利润预期，Next股价飙升11%，为2020年4月以来的最高水平。加拿大皇家银行(RBC)预计共识预期将增加中高个位数。</li><li>Thule股价上涨11%，创2月10日以来最大盘中涨幅，这家自行车架和包袋制造商的利润超出了市场普遍预期的最高利润预期。</li><li>ASML股价上涨4.6%，为5月5日以来最大盘中涨幅，此前该公司报告订单创纪录，Oddo BHF（跑赢大盘）称“略高于预期”。</li><li>SAP公布财报后股价下跌超过5.1%，分析师对这家软件巨头略微上调的云收入前景印象不深。</li><li>育碧发布销售更新后，股价下跌4.3%，至两个月低点。杰富瑞指出，这家视频游戏制造商的指导范围仍然很广。</li><li>由于芯片短缺，戴姆勒下调了梅赛德斯-奔驰部门的销售前景，该公司股价在法兰克福下跌4%。华宝表示，这一下降“显然是负面的”，同时指出梅赛德斯-奔驰轿车和货车的利润率目标走廊已得到确认。</li></ul><b>盘前公布的财务业绩：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1)&nbsp;ASML</b>-ASML reports €4.0 billion net sales and €1.0 billion net income in Q2 2021 Net sales now expected to grow by around 35% in 2021.Q2 net sales of €4.0 billion, gross margin of 50.9%, net income of €1.0 billion; Q2 net bookings of €8.3 billion; ASML expects Q3 2021 net sales between €5.2 billion and €5.4 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 52%; ASML announces a new share buyback program of up to €9 billion to be executed by December 31, 2023.</p><p><blockquote><b>1）ASML</b>-ASML报告2021年第二季度净销售额为40亿欧元，净利润为10亿欧元。目前预计2021年净销售额将增长35%左右。第二季度净销售额为40亿欧元，毛利率为50.9%，净利润为10亿欧元；第二季度净预订量为83亿欧元；ASML预计2021年第三季度净销售额在52亿欧元至54亿欧元之间，毛利率在51%至52%之间；ASML宣布一项高达90亿欧元的新股票回购计划，将于2023年12月31日执行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2)&nbsp;Coca-Cola</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;Coca-Cola rallied almost 2% in premarket trading following an upbeat quarter.&nbsp;Coca-Cola came in 12 cents above estimates withadjusted quarterly earnings of 68 cents per share, with revenue beating forecasts as venues like stadiums and movie theaters reopened.&nbsp;Coca-Cola also raised its full-year forecast.</p><p><blockquote><b>2）可口可乐</b>-可口可乐在经历了一个乐观的季度后，在盘前交易中上涨了近2%。可口可乐的调整后季度收益为每股68美分，比预期高出12美分，随着体育场和电影院等场所重新开放，收入超出预期。可口可乐还上调了全年预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3)&nbsp;</b><b>Verizon</b>&nbsp;-&nbsp;Verizon beats on Q2 earnings, issues robust FY21 outlook. Verizon Communications Inc reported second-quarter FY21 operating revenue growth of 10.9% year-on-year to $33.8 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $32.68 billion. Wireless revenue growth, strong Fios and Verizon Media results, and increased wireless equipment revenue drove the revenue numbers.</p><p><blockquote><b>3) </b><b>Verizon</b>-Verizon第二季度盈利好于预期，发布了强劲的2021财年前景。Verizon Communications Inc公布2021财年第二季度营业收入同比增长10.9%至338亿美元，超出分析师预期的326.8亿美元。无线收入增长、强劲的Fios和Verizon Media业绩以及无线设备收入的增加推动了收入数字。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>4)&nbsp;Johnson &amp; Johnson</b> - Johnson &amp; Johnson Q2 earnings beat expectations; raises FY21 outlook, sees $2.5B sales from COVID vaccine. Johnson &amp; Johnson reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $2.48 per share, almost 50% higher than the $1.67 posted a year ago and better than the consensus of $2.27. Net sales increased 27% Y/Y to $23.3 billion, and ahead of the $22.1 billion consensus.</p><p><blockquote><b>4）强生</b>-强生Q2盈利超预期；上调2021财年展望，预计COVID疫苗销售额为2.5 B美元。强生公司报告第二季度调整后每股收益为2.48美元，比一年前的1.67美元高出近50%，也好于市场普遍预期的2.27美元。净销售额同比增长27%至233亿美元，高于市场预期的221亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Treasury&nbsp;10-year yields rose further above 1.2% though it remains to be seen if the recovery in yields has legs amid lingering concerns about the delta virus variant that led traders to&nbsp;pare back&nbsp;bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Treasuries bear-steepened with long-end yields cheaper by 3bp-4bp as U.S. stock futures rise to weekly highs, with focus turning to corporate earnings. Treasury 10-year yields 1.243%, were cheaper by ~2bp on the day and mildly underperforming bunds and gilts; long-end-led losses steepen 2s10s and 5s30s by ~2bp. The Asian session produced gains for Treasuries, led by Aussie bonds, that began to erode during European morning helped by 10-year futures block sale. U.S. session’s main event is 20-year bond reopening.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率进一步升至1.2%以上，但由于对delta病毒变种的担忧挥之不去，导致交易员削减了对美联储加息的押注，收益率的复苏是否持续还有待观察。随着美国股指期货升至周高点，美国国债熊市加剧，长期收益率下跌3bp-4bp，焦点转向企业盈利。10年期国债收益率为1.243%，当日下跌约2个基点，表现略逊于德国国债和英国国债；长端led损耗使2s10s和5s30s陡峭约2bp。亚洲时段，以澳大利亚债券为首的美国国债上涨，但在10年期期货大宗销售的帮助下，美国国债在欧洲早盘开始下跌。美国时段的主要事件是20年期债券重新开放。</blockquote></p><p> In FX, the dollar index edged up 0.07% to 93.030, with the euro down 0.07% to $1.1771. The Bloomberg dollar index advanced to its highest since early April and risk-sensitive currencies rallied as a slew of corporate earnings took the focus off the coronavirus. The Aussie headed for its longest run of losses since September amid stricter virus curbs and a weaker-than-expected retail sales print. The Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar led G-10 gains while the yen underperformed.</p><p><blockquote>外汇方面，美元指数小幅上涨0.07%至93.030，欧元指数下跌0.07%至1.1771美元。彭博美元指数升至4月初以来的最高水平，随着一系列企业财报将人们的注意力从冠状病毒上转移开来，对风险敏感的货币上涨。由于更严格的病毒限制措施和弱于预期的零售销售数据，澳元将迎来自9月份以来最长的跌幅。挪威克朗和新西兰元领涨G-10，而日元表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> In commodities, Brent crude oil climbed back above $70 a barrel. The precious metals complex moved in tandem with yields, with spot gold in a tight range just above USD 1,800/oz (1,803-13/oz) and spot silver north of USD 25/oz (24.76-25.12/oz). Base metals have nursed overnight losses as the risk appetite across the markets offers base metals with some solace from China’s NDRC resuming its jawboning.<b>Chinese state media noted that China is to auction 30k tonnes of copper, 90k tonnes of aluminium, and 50k tonnes of zinc from state reserves later this month</b>, whilst the NDRC urged stepping up supervision on commodity prices and ensure overall price level targets this year.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品方面，布伦特原油回升至每桶70美元上方。贵金属综合体与收益率同步波动，现货黄金窄幅波动，略高于1800美元/盎司（1803-13美元/盎司），现货白银高于25美元/盎司（24.76-25.12美元/盎司）。基本金属隔夜下跌，因为整个市场的风险偏好为基本金属提供了一些安慰，中国国家发改委恢复了其言论。<b>中国官方媒体指出，中国将于本月晚些时候拍卖国家储备中的3万吨铜、9万吨铝和5万吨锌</b>同时，国家发改委敦促加强大宗商品价格监管，确保今年物价总水平目标。</blockquote></p><p> On day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.</p><p><blockquote>在跌破30,000美元（许多人认为必须守住的关键支撑位）后的第二天，随着比特币飙升并回到31,000美元上方，它就做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199453596","content_text":"Futures mixed.\nTreasury yields extend gains.\nVerizon Communications Inc., Johnson & Johnson, Coca-Cola Co and Anthem, Inc. posted earnings results in premarket.\nBitcoin Storms Back Over $31,000.\n\n(July 21) US equity futures, European bourses and Treasury yields rose for a second day clawing back much of the week's losses that were sparked by fears over spiking COVID-19 cases, as well as the \"peak growth\" and \"peak inflation\" narratives, as bargain hunters helped the S&P 500 to all but erase Monday’s slide in a rally led by cyclicals such as industrial stocks even though the dollar notched further gains on concerns over the impact of a fast-spreading coronavirus variant.\n“The correction we had is healthy to clear some of the excess out of the market and to get better balancing between growth and value,” Katie Koch, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s co-head of fundamental equity, said on Bloomberg Television. “From a long-term perspective we are really still very constructive on equity markets, so we’d encourage clients to be overweight risk assets.”\nAt 7:55 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 77 points, or 0.22%, S&P 500 E-minis were ip 2.75 points, or 0.06% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 45.25 points, or 0.31%. Bitcoin recovered from its drop below 30,000 jumping back over $31,000 ahead of a conference that sees Elon Musk, Jack Dorsey and Cathie Woodspeak on cryptos.\n\nHere are some of the biggest U.S. movers today:\n\nCryptocurrency-related stocks jump in premarket trading, tracking a rebound for Bitcoin back above the $30,000 level. Marathon Digital (MARA) rises 6.9% and Riot Blockchain (RIOT) gains 6.3%.\nModerna (MRNA) slips 1.5% ahead of its inclusion into the S&P 500 Index.\nNetflix (NFLX) gains 0.3% in premarket trading with most analysts maintaining a positive view on the stock despite second-quarter results and forecast for subscriber growth that came in below expectations.\nNext shares surge as much as 11%, the most since April 2020, after the U.K. retailer raised its profit forecast again as shoppers returned to stores after the end of lockdowns. RBC sees consensus estimates being increased by mid-to-high single digits.\nThule rises as much as 11% in its steepest intraday gain since Feb. 10 as the maker of bike racks and bags beats the highest profit estimate in the consensus range.\nASML shares rise as much as 4.6%, the most intraday since May 5, after the company reported record orders that Oddo BHF (outperform) says were “slightly above expectations.”\nSAP’s shares fall more than 5.1% after earnings, with analysts underwhelmed by the software giant’s slightly raised outlook for cloud revenue.\nUbisoft shares drop as much as 4.3% to a two-month low after giving a sales update. Jefferies notes the video game maker’s guidance remains a wide range.\nDaimler shares fall as much as 4% in Frankfurt after lowering the sales outlook for its Mercedes-Benz division amid a chip shortage. Warburg says the reduction “is clearly negative” while noting that the margin target corridor for Mercedes-Benz Cars and Vans was confirmed.\n\nFinancial Result posted in premarket:\n1) ASML-ASML reports €4.0 billion net sales and €1.0 billion net income in Q2 2021 Net sales now expected to grow by around 35% in 2021.Q2 net sales of €4.0 billion, gross margin of 50.9%, net income of €1.0 billion; Q2 net bookings of €8.3 billion; ASML expects Q3 2021 net sales between €5.2 billion and €5.4 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 52%; ASML announces a new share buyback program of up to €9 billion to be executed by December 31, 2023.\n2) Coca-Cola - Coca-Cola rallied almost 2% in premarket trading following an upbeat quarter. Coca-Cola came in 12 cents above estimates withadjusted quarterly earnings of 68 cents per share, with revenue beating forecasts as venues like stadiums and movie theaters reopened. Coca-Cola also raised its full-year forecast.\n3) Verizon - Verizon beats on Q2 earnings, issues robust FY21 outlook. Verizon Communications Inc reported second-quarter FY21 operating revenue growth of 10.9% year-on-year to $33.8 billion, beating the analyst consensus of $32.68 billion. Wireless revenue growth, strong Fios and Verizon Media results, and increased wireless equipment revenue drove the revenue numbers.\n4) Johnson & Johnson - Johnson & Johnson Q2 earnings beat expectations; raises FY21 outlook, sees $2.5B sales from COVID vaccine. Johnson & Johnson reported Q2 adjusted earnings of $2.48 per share, almost 50% higher than the $1.67 posted a year ago and better than the consensus of $2.27. Net sales increased 27% Y/Y to $23.3 billion, and ahead of the $22.1 billion consensus.\nTreasury 10-year yields rose further above 1.2% though it remains to be seen if the recovery in yields has legs amid lingering concerns about the delta virus variant that led traders to pare back bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike. Treasuries bear-steepened with long-end yields cheaper by 3bp-4bp as U.S. stock futures rise to weekly highs, with focus turning to corporate earnings. Treasury 10-year yields 1.243%, were cheaper by ~2bp on the day and mildly underperforming bunds and gilts; long-end-led losses steepen 2s10s and 5s30s by ~2bp. The Asian session produced gains for Treasuries, led by Aussie bonds, that began to erode during European morning helped by 10-year futures block sale. U.S. session’s main event is 20-year bond reopening.\nIn FX, the dollar index edged up 0.07% to 93.030, with the euro down 0.07% to $1.1771. The Bloomberg dollar index advanced to its highest since early April and risk-sensitive currencies rallied as a slew of corporate earnings took the focus off the coronavirus. The Aussie headed for its longest run of losses since September amid stricter virus curbs and a weaker-than-expected retail sales print. The Norwegian krone and New Zealand dollar led G-10 gains while the yen underperformed.\nIn commodities, Brent crude oil climbed back above $70 a barrel. The precious metals complex moved in tandem with yields, with spot gold in a tight range just above USD 1,800/oz (1,803-13/oz) and spot silver north of USD 25/oz (24.76-25.12/oz). Base metals have nursed overnight losses as the risk appetite across the markets offers base metals with some solace from China’s NDRC resuming its jawboning.Chinese state media noted that China is to auction 30k tonnes of copper, 90k tonnes of aluminium, and 50k tonnes of zinc from state reserves later this month, whilst the NDRC urged stepping up supervision on commodity prices and ensure overall price level targets this year.\nOn day after sliding below $30,000, a key support level which many said has to hold, it did just that with bitcoin storming higher and back over $31,000.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171987784,"gmtCreate":1626702748848,"gmtModify":1631883848452,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171987784","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173370614,"gmtCreate":1626622942438,"gmtModify":1631883848462,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173370614","repostId":"1183956332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179688977,"gmtCreate":1626518029499,"gmtModify":1631883848478,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179688977","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2277,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144329369,"gmtCreate":1626269151151,"gmtModify":1631883848488,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lile and comment","listText":"Lile and comment","text":"Lile and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144329369","repostId":"1154987666","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145909076,"gmtCreate":1626184887995,"gmtModify":1631883848502,"author":{"id":"3579253238684353","authorId":"3579253238684353","name":"db17dc","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3579253238684353","idStr":"3579253238684353"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145909076","repostId":"1152442565","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152442565","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626183960,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152442565?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 21:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Orbsat Corp shares jumps nearly 100% in early trading,as the company's Global Telesat Communications Unit Approved as an Alibaba gold supplier.<blockquote>Orbsat Corp股价在早盘交易中上涨近100%，该公司的全球Telesat通信部门被批准为阿里巴巴-SW金牌供应商。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152442565","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Orbsat Corp shares jumps nearly 100% in early trading,as the company's Global Telesat Communications","content":"<p>Orbsat Corp&nbsp;shares&nbsp;jumps&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;100%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;the company's Global Telesat Communications Unit Approved as an Alibaba gold supplier.</p><p><blockquote>Orbsat Corp股价在早盘交易中上涨近100%，该公司的全球Telesat通信部门被批准为阿里巴巴-SW金牌供应商。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df700e33a39e4c926a5f47fe2917a75c\" tg-width=\"1286\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orbsat Corp, a global provider of IoT and connectivity solutions through next-generation satellite technology, today announced that its Global Telesat Communications (GTC) unit has entered into an agreement with Alibaba.com, the B2B (Business-to-Business) e-commerce website owned and operated by Alibaba Group Holding Limited, also known as Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA; HKEX: 9988), a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology. GTC will be a Gold- Supplier on Alibaba.com, the world's largest Business-to-Business (B2B) e-commerce website.</p><p><blockquote>通过下一代卫星技术提供物联网和连接解决方案的全球提供商Orbsat Corp今天宣布，其全球Telesat Communications(GTC)部门已与B2B（企业对企业）阿里巴巴达成协议电子商务网站由阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（又称阿里巴巴-SW集团（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA；香港交易所代码：9988）拥有和运营，是一家专注于电子商务、零售、互联网和技术的中国跨国科技公司。GTC将成为全球最大的企业对企业(B2B)电子商务网站Alibaba.com的金牌供应商。</blockquote></p><p> \"With our launch on Alibaba.com, the world's largest B2B platform, we are significantly accelerating our global expansion plans, expanding, and deepening our e-commerce reach into nearly every country. This will allow us to better serve the needs of our enterprise customers across the world,\" said Charles M. Fernandez, Chairman and CEO of Orbsat. \"There has been explosive growth in online shopping due to the pandemic as businesses and consumers around the world embrace e-commerce. Long-term, we believe that e-commerce will be the preferred channel for businesses and consumers seeking to research and purchase our satellite IoT and connectivity products and services. We also intend to secure new integration alliances including joint commerce structures with additional connectivity partners such as those in the CubeSat space which can leverage our expanded e-commerce platforms and ground station-based infrastructure.\"</p><p><blockquote>Orbsat董事长兼首席执行官Charles M.Fernandez表示：“随着我们在全球最大的B2B平台Alibaba.com上的推出，我们正在显着加快我们的全球扩张计划，扩大和深化我们的电子商务覆盖几乎每个国家。这将使我们能够更好地满足全球企业客户的需求。”“由于疫情，随着世界各地的企业和消费者接受电子商务，在线购物出现了爆炸性增长。从长远来看，我们相信电子商务将成为寻求研究和购买我们卫星物联网和连接产品和服务的企业和消费者的首选渠道。我们还打算建立新的集成联盟，包括与其他连接合作伙伴的联合商务结构，例如CubeSat领域的合作伙伴，这些合作伙伴可以利用我们扩展的电子商务平台和基于地面站的基础设施。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Orbsat Corp shares jumps nearly 100% in early trading,as the company's Global Telesat Communications Unit Approved as an Alibaba gold supplier.<blockquote>Orbsat Corp股价在早盘交易中上涨近100%，该公司的全球Telesat通信部门被批准为阿里巴巴-SW金牌供应商。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOrbsat Corp shares jumps nearly 100% in early trading,as the company's Global Telesat Communications Unit Approved as an Alibaba gold supplier.<blockquote>Orbsat Corp股价在早盘交易中上涨近100%，该公司的全球Telesat通信部门被批准为阿里巴巴-SW金牌供应商。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 21:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Orbsat Corp&nbsp;shares&nbsp;jumps&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;100%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;the company's Global Telesat Communications Unit Approved as an Alibaba gold supplier.</p><p><blockquote>Orbsat Corp股价在早盘交易中上涨近100%，该公司的全球Telesat通信部门被批准为阿里巴巴-SW金牌供应商。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df700e33a39e4c926a5f47fe2917a75c\" tg-width=\"1286\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Orbsat Corp, a global provider of IoT and connectivity solutions through next-generation satellite technology, today announced that its Global Telesat Communications (GTC) unit has entered into an agreement with Alibaba.com, the B2B (Business-to-Business) e-commerce website owned and operated by Alibaba Group Holding Limited, also known as Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA; HKEX: 9988), a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology. GTC will be a Gold- Supplier on Alibaba.com, the world's largest Business-to-Business (B2B) e-commerce website.</p><p><blockquote>通过下一代卫星技术提供物联网和连接解决方案的全球提供商Orbsat Corp今天宣布，其全球Telesat Communications(GTC)部门已与B2B（企业对企业）阿里巴巴达成协议电子商务网站由阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司（又称阿里巴巴-SW集团（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA；香港交易所代码：9988）拥有和运营，是一家专注于电子商务、零售、互联网和技术的中国跨国科技公司。GTC将成为全球最大的企业对企业(B2B)电子商务网站Alibaba.com的金牌供应商。</blockquote></p><p> \"With our launch on Alibaba.com, the world's largest B2B platform, we are significantly accelerating our global expansion plans, expanding, and deepening our e-commerce reach into nearly every country. This will allow us to better serve the needs of our enterprise customers across the world,\" said Charles M. Fernandez, Chairman and CEO of Orbsat. \"There has been explosive growth in online shopping due to the pandemic as businesses and consumers around the world embrace e-commerce. Long-term, we believe that e-commerce will be the preferred channel for businesses and consumers seeking to research and purchase our satellite IoT and connectivity products and services. We also intend to secure new integration alliances including joint commerce structures with additional connectivity partners such as those in the CubeSat space which can leverage our expanded e-commerce platforms and ground station-based infrastructure.\"</p><p><blockquote>Orbsat董事长兼首席执行官Charles M.Fernandez表示：“随着我们在全球最大的B2B平台Alibaba.com上的推出，我们正在显着加快我们的全球扩张计划，扩大和深化我们的电子商务覆盖几乎每个国家。这将使我们能够更好地满足全球企业客户的需求。”“由于疫情，随着世界各地的企业和消费者接受电子商务，在线购物出现了爆炸性增长。从长远来看，我们相信电子商务将成为寻求研究和购买我们卫星物联网和连接产品和服务的企业和消费者的首选渠道。我们还打算建立新的集成联盟，包括与其他连接合作伙伴的联合商务结构，例如CubeSat领域的合作伙伴，这些合作伙伴可以利用我们扩展的电子商务平台和基于地面站的基础设施。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152442565","content_text":"Orbsat Corp shares jumps nearly 100% in early trading,as the company's Global Telesat Communications Unit Approved as an Alibaba gold supplier.\nOrbsat Corp, a global provider of IoT and connectivity solutions through next-generation satellite technology, today announced that its Global Telesat Communications (GTC) unit has entered into an agreement with Alibaba.com, the B2B (Business-to-Business) e-commerce website owned and operated by Alibaba Group Holding Limited, also known as Alibaba Group (NYSE: BABA; HKEX: 9988), a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, internet, and technology. GTC will be a Gold- Supplier on Alibaba.com, the world's largest Business-to-Business (B2B) e-commerce website.\n\"With our launch on Alibaba.com, the world's largest B2B platform, we are significantly accelerating our global expansion plans, expanding, and deepening our e-commerce reach into nearly every country. This will allow us to better serve the needs of our enterprise customers across the world,\" said Charles M. Fernandez, Chairman and CEO of Orbsat. \"There has been explosive growth in online shopping due to the pandemic as businesses and consumers around the world embrace e-commerce. Long-term, we believe that e-commerce will be the preferred channel for businesses and consumers seeking to research and purchase our satellite IoT and connectivity products and services. We also intend to secure new integration alliances including joint commerce structures with additional connectivity partners such as those in the CubeSat space which can leverage our expanded e-commerce platforms and ground station-based infrastructure.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"OSAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}