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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  great
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,879 评论
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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  ok
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,315 评论
  1
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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  great
  Wall Street Has Given Up on These 3 Stocks, and That's a Huge Mistake<blockquote>华尔街放弃了这三只股票，这是一个巨大的错误</blockquote>
  It's never a bad time to search for beaten-down stocks that are profitable on paper.Searching forval
  Wall Street Has Given Up on These 3 Stocks, and That's a Huge Mistake<blockquote>华尔街放弃了这三只股票，这是一个巨大的错误</blockquote>
  1,269 评论
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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  bad news
  How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>
  You may not like the answer. For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b
  How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>
  1,287 1
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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  great
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,471 评论
  2
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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  igreat
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,097 评论
  3
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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,750 评论
  1
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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,239 评论
  1
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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  not very bad
  U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>
  (April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic grow
  U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>
  1,626 评论
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- fazrokersfazrokers
  ·2021-04-03
  great
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,607 评论
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When the share price comes back to reality, you'll be a winner. Wall Street has the habit of kicking a stock when it's down, as negative sentiment surrounding a particular name can spell doom for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是寻找纸面上盈利的遭受重创的股票的最佳时机。寻找价值股票非常简单：找到从股价角度来看表现不佳的财务稳健的公司，并在它们下跌时买入它们。当股价回到现实时，你将是赢家。华尔街有在股票下跌时踢掉股票的习惯，因为围绕某个特定名称的负面情绪可能会给股东带来厄运。</blockquote></p><p>For those seeking value, these moments present an opportunity. Here, we'll look at three value stocks that have seen better days, but also have a good chance at rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些寻求价值的人来说，这些时刻提供了一个机会。在这里，我们将关注三只价值股，它们经历了更好的日子，但也有很好的反弹机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gilead Sciences</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉利德科学</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past five years,<b>Gilead Sciences</b>(NASDAQ:GILD)has managed to lose about 40% of its value on the open market, and has vastly underperformed apassively held index fundover the same period (as shown below). As a market leader in the oncology, HIV, and hepatitis C drug markets, respectively, the company produces a suite of antivirals for typically hard-to-treat illnesses. While Gilead was -- and is -- front-and-center during the pandemic in its production of Veklury (more commonly known as remdesivir), it is not one of the major vaccine producers.</p><p><blockquote>五年来，<b>吉利德科学</b>（纳斯达克：GILD）在公开市场上损失了约40%的价值，并且同期的表现远远落后于被动持有的指数基金（如下所示）。作为肿瘤学、艾滋病毒和丙型肝炎药物市场的市场领导者，该公司生产一系列针对通常难以治疗的疾病的抗病毒药物。虽然吉利德在大流行期间一直是Veklury（通常称为remdesivir）生产的前沿和中心，但它并不是主要的疫苗生产商之一。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps the better news for those considering a Gilead investment is that the company is fundamentally quite strong. It trades at 9 times earnings, which is comparably cheap across the large-cap biotech sector. It projects a strong 2021, releasing guidance for revenue of $25 billion and EPS in the $7 range .</p><p><blockquote>对于那些考虑投资吉利德的人来说，也许更好的消息是该公司从根本上来说相当强大。它的市盈率为9倍，在大型生物技术行业中相对便宜。它预计2021年将表现强劲，发布的收入指引为250亿美元，每股收益在7美元左右。</blockquote></p><p>Put simply, the company trades at an attractive price relative to the earnings it generates, and the hope is that patients start treatment for other viral and chronic (non-COVID) illnesses now that the pandemic has waned a bit in the early part of the year.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，相对于其产生的收入，该公司的交易价格具有吸引力，希望患者能够开始治疗其他病毒性和慢性（非新冠）疾病，因为疫情在今年年初有所减弱。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e7203dcf348bdd13924f561f04db9af\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>DISH Network</b></p><p><blockquote><b>碟形网络</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite a stagnant stock price --<b>DISH Network</b>(NASDAQ:DISH)has fallen from just under $50 per share to around $35 today -- there is reason to believe a comeback is in the works. The stock currently trades at 11 times earnings, relatively cheap based on today's standards, and posted strong revenue growth in 2020, up about 40% from 2019.</p><p><blockquote>尽管股价停滞不前--<b>碟形网络</b>（纳斯达克：DISH）的股价已从每股略低于50美元跌至今天的35美元左右——有理由相信股价正在卷土重来。该股目前的市盈率为11倍，以今天的标准来看相对便宜，2020年收入增长强劲，较2019年增长约40%。</blockquote></p><p>DISH has engaged in a few creative partnerships; perhaps the most promising of the bunchis a pact with DraftKings, which seeks to offer sports betting from DISH set-top boxes. The underlying current here is that DISH Network has shown an ability to think outside the box, which is reflected in itsprofitability measures. It is a buy at its current price, and has an opportunity to stage a comeback in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>DISH参与了一些创造性的合作；也许其中最有前途的是与DraftKings的协议，该协议旨在通过碟形机顶盒提供体育博彩。这里的潜在趋势是，DISH Network已经表现出了跳出框框思考的能力，这反映在其盈利能力指标上。以目前的价格买入，并有机会在未来几年卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tupperware Brands</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特百惠品牌</b></blockquote></p><p>While not the most high-flying name you've ever heard,<b>Tupperware Brands</b>(NYSE:TUP)simply runs a sustainably profitable business. Last year's earnings were $2.24 a share, and the stock currently trades around $25 per share, leading to a current price-to-earnings ratio of only about 11. While overall sales were down in 2020, profitable sales growth rose, a sign that the company is still able to control costs and make money in the most difficult of circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是你听过的最崇高的名字，<b>特百惠品牌</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TUP）只是经营一项可持续盈利的业务。去年的每股收益为2.24美元，该股目前的交易价格约为每股25美元，导致目前的市盈率仅为11左右。虽然2020年整体销售额下降，但盈利销售额增长上升，这表明该公司仍然能够在最困难的情况下控制成本并赚钱。</blockquote></p><p>The stock has also lost two-thirds of its value since 2013 but remains profitable. According to its year-end press release, the company has been successful in restructuring its debt and executing on its turnaround plans (especially concerning its core businesses). Shares remain cheap for the moment, but the fact remains: The company makes money and has the financials to prove it.</p><p><blockquote>自2013年以来，该股的价值也损失了三分之二，但仍保持盈利。根据其年终新闻稿，该公司已成功重组债务并执行扭亏为盈计划（特别是有关其核心业务）。目前股价仍然便宜，但事实仍然是：该公司赚钱，并且有财务数据证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p><b>When in doubt, seek value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当有疑问时，寻求价值</b></blockquote></p><p>The basic premise of value investing is to find profitable companies that happen to be on sale in the open market. While single-stock investing is far from a guaranteed strategy, it's worth looking into seemingly \"forgotten\" companies that simply have not yet had their day in the sun. Companies that have demonstrated their ability to grow and sustain profitability are your best bet, especially when they're cheap.</p><p><blockquote>价值投资的基本前提是找到盈利的公司，而这些公司恰好在公开市场上出售。虽然单一股票投资远非一种有保证的策略，但值得关注那些看似“被遗忘”的公司，这些公司只是还没有成功。已经证明有能力增长和维持盈利能力的公司是你最好的选择，尤其是当它们很便宜的时候。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Has Given Up on These 3 Stocks, and That's a Huge Mistake<blockquote>华尔街放弃了这三只股票，这是一个巨大的错误</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Has Given Up on These 3 Stocks, and That's a Huge Mistake<blockquote>华尔街放弃了这三只股票，这是一个巨大的错误</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It's never a bad time to search for beaten-down stocks that are profitable on paper.Searching forvalue stocksis pretty simple: Find financially robust companies that have performed poorly from a share price perspective, and buy them when they're down. When the share price comes back to reality, you'll be a winner. Wall Street has the habit of kicking a stock when it's down, as negative sentiment surrounding a particular name can spell doom for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>现在是寻找纸面上盈利的遭受重创的股票的最佳时机。寻找价值股票非常简单：找到从股价角度来看表现不佳的财务稳健的公司，并在它们下跌时买入它们。当股价回到现实时，你将是赢家。华尔街有在股票下跌时踢掉股票的习惯，因为围绕某个特定名称的负面情绪可能会给股东带来厄运。</blockquote></p><p>For those seeking value, these moments present an opportunity. Here, we'll look at three value stocks that have seen better days, but also have a good chance at rebounding.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些寻求价值的人来说，这些时刻提供了一个机会。在这里，我们将关注三只价值股，它们经历了更好的日子，但也有很好的反弹机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gilead Sciences</b></p><p><blockquote><b>吉利德科学</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past five years,<b>Gilead Sciences</b>(NASDAQ:GILD)has managed to lose about 40% of its value on the open market, and has vastly underperformed apassively held index fundover the same period (as shown below). As a market leader in the oncology, HIV, and hepatitis C drug markets, respectively, the company produces a suite of antivirals for typically hard-to-treat illnesses. While Gilead was -- and is -- front-and-center during the pandemic in its production of Veklury (more commonly known as remdesivir), it is not one of the major vaccine producers.</p><p><blockquote>五年来，<b>吉利德科学</b>（纳斯达克：GILD）在公开市场上损失了约40%的价值，并且同期的表现远远落后于被动持有的指数基金（如下所示）。作为肿瘤学、艾滋病毒和丙型肝炎药物市场的市场领导者，该公司生产一系列针对通常难以治疗的疾病的抗病毒药物。虽然吉利德在大流行期间一直是Veklury（通常称为remdesivir）生产的前沿和中心，但它并不是主要的疫苗生产商之一。</blockquote></p><p>Perhaps the better news for those considering a Gilead investment is that the company is fundamentally quite strong. It trades at 9 times earnings, which is comparably cheap across the large-cap biotech sector. It projects a strong 2021, releasing guidance for revenue of $25 billion and EPS in the $7 range .</p><p><blockquote>对于那些考虑投资吉利德的人来说，也许更好的消息是该公司从根本上来说相当强大。它的市盈率为9倍，在大型生物技术行业中相对便宜。它预计2021年将表现强劲，发布的收入指引为250亿美元，每股收益在7美元左右。</blockquote></p><p>Put simply, the company trades at an attractive price relative to the earnings it generates, and the hope is that patients start treatment for other viral and chronic (non-COVID) illnesses now that the pandemic has waned a bit in the early part of the year.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，相对于其产生的收入，该公司的交易价格具有吸引力，希望患者能够开始治疗其他病毒性和慢性（非新冠）疾病，因为疫情在今年年初有所减弱。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e7203dcf348bdd13924f561f04db9af\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>DISH Network</b></p><p><blockquote><b>碟形网络</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite a stagnant stock price --<b>DISH Network</b>(NASDAQ:DISH)has fallen from just under $50 per share to around $35 today -- there is reason to believe a comeback is in the works. The stock currently trades at 11 times earnings, relatively cheap based on today's standards, and posted strong revenue growth in 2020, up about 40% from 2019.</p><p><blockquote>尽管股价停滞不前--<b>碟形网络</b>（纳斯达克：DISH）的股价已从每股略低于50美元跌至今天的35美元左右——有理由相信股价正在卷土重来。该股目前的市盈率为11倍，以今天的标准来看相对便宜，2020年收入增长强劲，较2019年增长约40%。</blockquote></p><p>DISH has engaged in a few creative partnerships; perhaps the most promising of the bunchis a pact with DraftKings, which seeks to offer sports betting from DISH set-top boxes. The underlying current here is that DISH Network has shown an ability to think outside the box, which is reflected in itsprofitability measures. It is a buy at its current price, and has an opportunity to stage a comeback in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>DISH参与了一些创造性的合作；也许其中最有前途的是与DraftKings的协议，该协议旨在通过碟形机顶盒提供体育博彩。这里的潜在趋势是，DISH Network已经表现出了跳出框框思考的能力，这反映在其盈利能力指标上。以目前的价格买入，并有机会在未来几年卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tupperware Brands</b></p><p><blockquote><b>特百惠品牌</b></blockquote></p><p>While not the most high-flying name you've ever heard,<b>Tupperware Brands</b>(NYSE:TUP)simply runs a sustainably profitable business. Last year's earnings were $2.24 a share, and the stock currently trades around $25 per share, leading to a current price-to-earnings ratio of only about 11. While overall sales were down in 2020, profitable sales growth rose, a sign that the company is still able to control costs and make money in the most difficult of circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>虽然不是你听过的最崇高的名字，<b>特百惠品牌</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：TUP）只是经营一项可持续盈利的业务。去年的每股收益为2.24美元，该股目前的交易价格约为每股25美元，导致目前的市盈率仅为11左右。虽然2020年整体销售额下降，但盈利销售额增长上升，这表明该公司仍然能够在最困难的情况下控制成本并赚钱。</blockquote></p><p>The stock has also lost two-thirds of its value since 2013 but remains profitable. According to its year-end press release, the company has been successful in restructuring its debt and executing on its turnaround plans (especially concerning its core businesses). Shares remain cheap for the moment, but the fact remains: The company makes money and has the financials to prove it.</p><p><blockquote>自2013年以来，该股的价值也损失了三分之二，但仍保持盈利。根据其年终新闻稿，该公司已成功重组债务并执行扭亏为盈计划（特别是有关其核心业务）。目前股价仍然便宜，但事实仍然是：该公司赚钱，并且有财务数据证明这一点。</blockquote></p><p><b>When in doubt, seek value</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当有疑问时，寻求价值</b></blockquote></p><p>The basic premise of value investing is to find profitable companies that happen to be on sale in the open market. While single-stock investing is far from a guaranteed strategy, it's worth looking into seemingly \"forgotten\" companies that simply have not yet had their day in the sun. Companies that have demonstrated their ability to grow and sustain profitability are your best bet, especially when they're cheap.</p><p><blockquote>价值投资的基本前提是找到盈利的公司，而这些公司恰好在公开市场上出售。虽然单一股票投资远非一种有保证的策略，但值得关注那些看似“被遗忘”的公司，这些公司只是还没有成功。已经证明有能力增长和维持盈利能力的公司是你最好的选择，尤其是当它们很便宜的时候。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/wall-street-has-given-up-on-these-3-stocks-and-tha/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GILD":"吉利德科学","DISH":"Dish Network"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/wall-street-has-given-up-on-these-3-stocks-and-tha/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121666420","content_text":"It's never a bad time to search for beaten-down stocks that are profitable on paper.Searching forvalue stocksis pretty simple: Find financially robust companies that have performed poorly from a share price perspective, and buy them when they're down. When the share price comes back to reality, you'll be a winner. Wall Street has the habit of kicking a stock when it's down, as negative sentiment surrounding a particular name can spell doom for shareholders.For those seeking value, these moments present an opportunity. Here, we'll look at three value stocks that have seen better days, but also have a good chance at rebounding.Gilead SciencesOver the past five years,Gilead Sciences(NASDAQ:GILD)has managed to lose about 40% of its value on the open market, and has vastly underperformed apassively held index fundover the same period (as shown below). As a market leader in the oncology, HIV, and hepatitis C drug markets, respectively, the company produces a suite of antivirals for typically hard-to-treat illnesses. While Gilead was -- and is -- front-and-center during the pandemic in its production of Veklury (more commonly known as remdesivir), it is not one of the major vaccine producers.Perhaps the better news for those considering a Gilead investment is that the company is fundamentally quite strong. It trades at 9 times earnings, which is comparably cheap across the large-cap biotech sector. It projects a strong 2021, releasing guidance for revenue of $25 billion and EPS in the $7 range .Put simply, the company trades at an attractive price relative to the earnings it generates, and the hope is that patients start treatment for other viral and chronic (non-COVID) illnesses now that the pandemic has waned a bit in the early part of the year.DISH NetworkDespite a stagnant stock price --DISH Network(NASDAQ:DISH)has fallen from just under $50 per share to around $35 today -- there is reason to believe a comeback is in the works. The stock currently trades at 11 times earnings, relatively cheap based on today's standards, and posted strong revenue growth in 2020, up about 40% from 2019.DISH has engaged in a few creative partnerships; perhaps the most promising of the bunchis a pact with DraftKings, which seeks to offer sports betting from DISH set-top boxes. The underlying current here is that DISH Network has shown an ability to think outside the box, which is reflected in itsprofitability measures. It is a buy at its current price, and has an opportunity to stage a comeback in the coming years.Tupperware BrandsWhile not the most high-flying name you've ever heard,Tupperware Brands(NYSE:TUP)simply runs a sustainably profitable business. Last year's earnings were $2.24 a share, and the stock currently trades around $25 per share, leading to a current price-to-earnings ratio of only about 11. While overall sales were down in 2020, profitable sales growth rose, a sign that the company is still able to control costs and make money in the most difficult of circumstances.The stock has also lost two-thirds of its value since 2013 but remains profitable. According to its year-end press release, the company has been successful in restructuring its debt and executing on its turnaround plans (especially concerning its core businesses). Shares remain cheap for the moment, but the fact remains: The company makes money and has the financials to prove it.When in doubt, seek valueThe basic premise of value investing is to find profitable companies that happen to be on sale in the open market. While single-stock investing is far from a guaranteed strategy, it's worth looking into seemingly \"forgotten\" companies that simply have not yet had their day in the sun. Companies that have demonstrated their ability to grow and sustain profitability are your best bet, especially when they're cheap.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DISH":0.9,"GILD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340489642,"gmtCreate":1617451871686,"gmtModify":1634520900111,"author":{"id":"3579362351112270","authorId":"3579362351112270","name":"fazrokers","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164b69c4070fb492c3a85d878da98f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579362351112270","authorIdStr":"3579362351112270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"bad news","listText":"bad news","text":"bad news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340489642","repostId":"1191998262","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191998262","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1617366158,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191998262?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191998262","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-b","content":"<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Likely Is a Stock Market Crash?<blockquote>股市崩盘的可能性有多大？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-04-02 20:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  You may not like the answer.  For the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmark<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.</p><p><blockquote>你可能不喜欢这个答案。在过去的一年里，投资者享受了有史以来最大的反弹之一。基准后<b>标普500</b>由于围绕冠状病毒大流行的前所未有的不确定性，(SNPINDEX：^GSPC)在短短几周内就损失了三分之一的价值，但随后反弹至较低点上涨了75%左右。你可以正确地说，耐心得到了回报。</blockquote></p><p> But there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.</p><p><blockquote>但投资者——尤其是长期投资者——敏锐地意识到了另一个现实：股市崩盘或调整的倾向。现在情况可能看起来很好，但下一次大幅暴跌总是在等待。</blockquote></p><p> It begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：股市崩盘的可能性有多大？让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Double-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average</b></p><p><blockquote><b>平均每1.87年出现两位数的下降</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&amp;P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.</p><p><blockquote>首先，股市调整（即至少下跌10%）在标普500中很常见。根据市场分析公司Yardeni Research的数据，自1950年初以来，标普500已经出现了38次回调。这意味着基准指数平均每1.87年下降两位数。由于距离市场触及熊市底部已经一年多了，平均水平肯定不会受到投资者的青睐。</blockquote></p><p> However, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.</p><p><blockquote>然而，平均值不过如此...平均值。市场并不遵循平均水平，即使有些人根据历史上发生的事情进行投资。</blockquote></p><p> We could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.</p><p><blockquote>我们可能会进入一个类似于1991年到1996年的时期，那里的修正为零。或者我们可以延续2010年初以来的主题，平均每19个月就会出现一次修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Corrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在熊市触底后的三年内，调整是历史性的</b></blockquote></p><p> Another interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&amp;P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.</p><p><blockquote>另一个值得研究的有趣证据是标普500在触及熊市底部后修正的频率。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).</p><p><blockquote>自1960年初（为了简单起见，我随意选择了一年）以来，这个广受关注的指数已经经历了九次熊市，包括冠状病毒崩盘。在从之前八次熊市低点反弹的过程中，100%的情况下，三年内至少有一次两位数的百分比下跌。在过去八次熊市底部之后的三年内，总共发生了13次调整（即每次底部之后都有一次或两次）。</blockquote></p><p> Put another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，从熊市底部反弹很少是直线走高。然而，自2020年3月23日以来，上涨、上涨和离开几乎一直是投资者的主题。历史表明，未来两年内股市很有可能走低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Crashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit</b></p><p><blockquote><b>当达到这个估值指标时，经常会发生崩溃</b></blockquote></p><p> But the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&amp;P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.</p><p><blockquote>但最确凿的证据可能是标普500的席勒市盈率（P/E）。这是一个估值指标，考察过去10年经通胀调整后的平均收益。你可能也知道它是周期性调整市盈率，或CAPE。</blockquote></p><p> As of the close of business on March 30, the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.</p><p><blockquote>截至3月30日收盘，标普500的席勒市盈率达到35.61。这是150年来平均水平16.8的两倍多。以持续的牛市走势为参数，这是其历史上第二高的读数。</blockquote></p><p> To some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.</p><p><blockquote>在某种程度上，现在的股票估值应该高于历史水平是有道理的。这是因为利率接近历史低点，而且互联网接入有效地打破了华尔街和主街之间的障碍，这些障碍在过去可能会阻碍市盈率倍数。</blockquote></p><p> However, previous instances of the S&amp;P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，此前标普500席勒市盈率突破并维持在30水平的情况并没有得到很好的结局。在之前四次席勒市盈率超过并保持在30以上的情况下，基准指数下跌了20%至89%。尽管如今不太可能出现大萧条期间经历的89%的暴跌，但从历史上看，当估值延长时，就有可能出现大幅下跌，就像现在一样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Keep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将现金放在手边，以防机会来袭</b></blockquote></p><p> To circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.</p><p><blockquote>回到手头的最初问题，数据非常清楚地表明，股市崩盘或调整的可能性已经大大增加。不可能准确预测崩盘何时可能发生，下跌将持续多长时间，或者下跌幅度有多大。但数据强烈表明下行趋势即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> While this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这对一些投资者来说可能是一个令人失望的发现，但事实并非如此。崩盘和调整是投资周期的正常部分。更重要的是，它们为投资者提供了以折扣价购买伟大公司的机会。想想去年三月你可能会因为没有购买而自责的所有伟大公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&amp;P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&amp;P 500 been negative.</p><p><blockquote>对崩溃和修正感到兴奋的原因也可以在数据中找到。你看，自1950年初以来的38次标普500调整中，每一次最终都被牛市反弹抛到了后视镜中。此外，在过去的一个世纪里，标普500的20年滚动总回报率（包括股息）从未为负。</blockquote></p><p> If you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&amp;P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.</p><p><blockquote>如果您在调整期间需要进一步鼓励买入，请记住，标普500 38次两位数下跌中有24次是在104个或更短的日历日（3.5个月或更短）内触底的。崩溃和修正有时可能很剧烈，但往往会很快解决。这是你在机会来临时准备好现金的提示。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/04/02/how-likely-is-a-stock-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191998262","content_text":"You may not like the answer.\n\nFor the past year, investors have enjoyed one of the greatest bounce-back rallies of all time. After the benchmarkS&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)lost a third of its value in mere weeks due to unprecedented uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus pandemic, it bounced back to gain in the neighborhood of 75% off its lows. You could rightly say that patience has paid off.\nBut there's another reality that investors -- especially long-term investors -- are keenly aware of: the propensity of the stock market to crash or correct. Things might look great now, but the next big nosedive is always waiting in the wings.\nIt begs the question: How likely is astock market crash? Let's take a closer look.\nDouble-digit declines occur every 1.87 years, on average\nTo begin with the basics, stock market corrections (i.e., declines of at least 10%) are quite common in the S&P 500. According to data from market analytics firm Yardeni Research, there have been 38 corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950. This works out to an average double-digit decline in the benchmark indexevery 1.87 years. Since it's now been more than a year since the market hit its bear-market bottom, the averages are certainly not in investors' favor.\nHowever, averages are nothing more than that... averages. The market doesn't adhere to averages, even if some folks base their investments off of what's happened historically.\nWe could enter a period similar to 1991 through 1996 where there were zero corrections. Or we could continue the theme since the beginning of 2010, where corrections occur, on average, every 19 months.\nCorrections have been an historical given within three years of a bear market bottom\nAnother interesting piece of evidence to examine is the frequency by which the S&P 500 corrects after hitting a bear-market bottom.\nSince the beginning of 1960 (an arbitrary year I chose for the sake of simplicity), the widely followed index has navigated its way through nine bear markets, including the coronavirus crash. In rebounding from each of the previous eight bear market lows, there was at least one double-digit percentage decline within three years100% of the time. In aggregate, 13 corrections have occurred within three years following the last eight bear market bottoms (i.e., either one or two following each bottom).\nPut another way, rebounding from a bear-market bottom is rarely a straight-line move higher. Yet up, up, and away has pretty much been the theme for investors since March 23, 2020. History would suggest that there's a very good chance of a move lower in equities within the next two years.\nCrashes frequently occur when this valuation metric is hit\nBut the most damning bit of evidence might just be the S&P 500's Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio. This is a valuation metric that examines the average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years. You might also know it as the cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE.\nAs of the close of business on March 30, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 35.61. That's well over double its 150-year average of 16.8. Using continuous bull market moves as a parameter, it's the second-highest reading in its history.\nTo some extent, itmakes sensethat equity valuations should be higher now than they've been historically. That's because interest rates are near an all-time low and access to the internet has effectively broken down barriers between Wall Street and Main Street that may have, in the past, kept P/E multiples at bay.\nHowever, previous instances of the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio crossing above and sustaining the 30 levelhaven't ended well. In the prior four instances where the Shiller P/E surpassed and held above 30, the benchmark index tumbled anywhere from 20% to as much as 89%. Although an 89% plunge, which was experienced during the Great Depression, is very unlikely these days, a big drop has historically been in the cards when valuations get extended, as they are now.\nKeep that cash handy in the event that opportunity knocks\nTo circle back to the original question at hand, the data is pretty clear that the likelihood of a stock market crash or correction has grown considerably. It's impossible to precisely predict when a crash might occur, how long the decline will last, or how steep the drop could be. But the data strongly suggests that downside is in the offing.\nWhile this might be a disappointing revelation to some investors, it shouldn't be. Crashes and corrections are a normal part of the investing cycle. More importantly, theyprovide an opportunityfor investors to buy into great companies at a discount. Just think about all the great companies you're probably kicking yourself over for not buying last March.\nThe reason to be excited about crashes and corrections is also found in the data. You see, of those 38 previous corrections in the S&P 500 since the beginning of 1950, each and every one has eventually been put into the rearview mirror by a bull market rally. Plus,at no point over the past centuryhave rolling 20-year total returns (including dividends) for the S&P 500 been negative.\nIf you need further encouragement to buy during a correction, keep in mind that 24 of the 38 double-digit declines in the S&P 500 havefound their bottom in 104 or fewer calendar days(3.5 months or less). Crashes and corrections may be steep at times but tend to resolve quickly. That's your cue to have cash at the ready in the event that opportunity knocks.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340489301,"gmtCreate":1617451823503,"gmtModify":1634520900354,"author":{"id":"3579362351112270","authorId":"3579362351112270","name":"fazrokers","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164b69c4070fb492c3a85d878da98f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579362351112270","authorIdStr":"3579362351112270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340489301","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340489930,"gmtCreate":1617451795620,"gmtModify":1634520900476,"author":{"id":"3579362351112270","authorId":"3579362351112270","name":"fazrokers","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164b69c4070fb492c3a85d878da98f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579362351112270","authorIdStr":"3579362351112270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"igreat","listText":"igreat","text":"igreat","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340489930","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1097,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340549749,"gmtCreate":1617439476381,"gmtModify":1634520946967,"author":{"id":"3579362351112270","authorId":"3579362351112270","name":"fazrokers","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164b69c4070fb492c3a85d878da98f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579362351112270","authorIdStr":"3579362351112270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340549749","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2750,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340549524,"gmtCreate":1617439462368,"gmtModify":1634520947208,"author":{"id":"3579362351112270","authorId":"3579362351112270","name":"fazrokers","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164b69c4070fb492c3a85d878da98f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579362351112270","authorIdStr":"3579362351112270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340549524","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340549162,"gmtCreate":1617439413156,"gmtModify":1634520947452,"author":{"id":"3579362351112270","authorId":"3579362351112270","name":"fazrokers","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164b69c4070fb492c3a85d878da98f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579362351112270","authorIdStr":"3579362351112270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"not very bad","listText":"not very bad","text":"not very bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340549162","repostId":"1176602902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176602902","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1617366683,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176602902?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-02 20:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176602902","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic grow","content":"<p>(April&nbsp;2)&nbsp;Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort pushed companies to step up hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.</p><p><blockquote>（4月2日）美国劳工部周五报告称，由于强劲的经济增长和积极的疫苗接种工作推动企业加大招聘力度，3月份就业增长以去年夏天以来的最快速度增长。</blockquote></p><p>Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6%.</p><p><blockquote>当月非农就业人数增加91.6万人，失业率降至6%。</blockquote></p><p>Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.</p><p><blockquote>接受道琼斯调查的经济学家一直预计增加675,000人，失业率为6%。</blockquote></p><p>The report comes amid a slew of other indicators pointing to stronger growth as the U.S. tries to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. States and municipalities across the country continue to reopen after a year of operating at reduced capacity.</p><p><blockquote>该报告发布之际，一系列其他指标表明，随着美国试图摆脱Covid-19大流行的影响，经济增长将更加强劲。在经历了一年的产能减少后，全国各地的州和市继续重新开放。</blockquote></p><p>Business activity has returned to close to normal levels in much of the company despite the restrictions, with a tracker by Jeffries indicating that activity is at 93.5% of its pre-pandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管受到限制，该公司大部分地区的业务活动已恢复到接近正常水平，Jeffries的跟踪显示，业务活动为大流行前水平的93.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Data from Homebase shows that employees working and hours worked both gained sharply over the past month, with significant improvements in both hospitality and entertainment. Those have been the hardest-hit sectors, but have improved over the past two months as governments have loosened up on some of the harshest restrictions on activity.</p><p><blockquote>Homebase的数据显示，过去一个月，员工的工作时间和工作时间都大幅增加，接待和娱乐方面都有显着改善。这些是受打击最严重的行业，但随着政府放松了一些最严厉的活动限制，过去两个月有所改善。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, manufacturing is enjoying a boom, with an Institute for Supply Management gauge of activity in the sector hitting its highest level since late 1983 in March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，制造业正在蓬勃发展，供应管理协会对该行业活动的衡量在3月份达到了1983年底以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The pace of gains combined with the unprecedented level of government stimulus has kindled worries about inflation, though Federal Reserve officials say any increases will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员表示，任何加息都将是暂时的，但加息速度加上政府前所未有的刺激措施引发了人们对通胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keeping a close eye on the jobs data, but policymakers have said repeatedly that even with the recent improvements the labor market is nowhere near a point that would push the central bank into raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在密切关注就业数据，但政策制定者一再表示，即使最近有所改善，劳动力市场也远未达到推动央行加息的程度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. added 916,000 jobs in March, above expectations<blockquote>美国3月新增就业91.6万个，高于预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-02 20:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(April&nbsp;2)&nbsp;Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort pushed companies to step up hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.</p><p><blockquote>（4月2日）美国劳工部周五报告称，由于强劲的经济增长和积极的疫苗接种工作推动企业加大招聘力度，3月份就业增长以去年夏天以来的最快速度增长。</blockquote></p><p>Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6%.</p><p><blockquote>当月非农就业人数增加91.6万人，失业率降至6%。</blockquote></p><p>Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.</p><p><blockquote>接受道琼斯调查的经济学家一直预计增加675,000人，失业率为6%。</blockquote></p><p>The report comes amid a slew of other indicators pointing to stronger growth as the U.S. tries to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. States and municipalities across the country continue to reopen after a year of operating at reduced capacity.</p><p><blockquote>该报告发布之际，一系列其他指标表明，随着美国试图摆脱Covid-19大流行的影响，经济增长将更加强劲。在经历了一年的产能减少后，全国各地的州和市继续重新开放。</blockquote></p><p>Business activity has returned to close to normal levels in much of the company despite the restrictions, with a tracker by Jeffries indicating that activity is at 93.5% of its pre-pandemic level.</p><p><blockquote>尽管受到限制，该公司大部分地区的业务活动已恢复到接近正常水平，Jeffries的跟踪显示，业务活动为大流行前水平的93.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Data from Homebase shows that employees working and hours worked both gained sharply over the past month, with significant improvements in both hospitality and entertainment. Those have been the hardest-hit sectors, but have improved over the past two months as governments have loosened up on some of the harshest restrictions on activity.</p><p><blockquote>Homebase的数据显示，过去一个月，员工的工作时间和工作时间都大幅增加，接待和娱乐方面都有显着改善。这些是受打击最严重的行业，但随着政府放松了一些最严厉的活动限制，过去两个月有所改善。</blockquote></p><p>At the same time, manufacturing is enjoying a boom, with an Institute for Supply Management gauge of activity in the sector hitting its highest level since late 1983 in March.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，制造业正在蓬勃发展，供应管理协会对该行业活动的衡量在3月份达到了1983年底以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>The pace of gains combined with the unprecedented level of government stimulus has kindled worries about inflation, though Federal Reserve officials say any increases will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美联储官员表示，任何加息都将是暂时的，但加息速度加上政府前所未有的刺激措施引发了人们对通胀的担忧。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keeping a close eye on the jobs data, but policymakers have said repeatedly that even with the recent improvements the labor market is nowhere near a point that would push the central bank into raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>美联储正在密切关注就业数据，但政策制定者一再表示，即使最近有所改善，劳动力市场也远未达到推动央行加息的程度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176602902","content_text":"(April 2) Job growth boomed in March at the fastest pace since last summer as stronger economic growth and an aggressive vaccination effort pushed companies to step up hiring, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 for the month while the unemployment rate fell to 6%.Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 675,000 and an unemployment rate of 6%.The report comes amid a slew of other indicators pointing to stronger growth as the U.S. tries to shake off the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. States and municipalities across the country continue to reopen after a year of operating at reduced capacity.Business activity has returned to close to normal levels in much of the company despite the restrictions, with a tracker by Jeffries indicating that activity is at 93.5% of its pre-pandemic level.Data from Homebase shows that employees working and hours worked both gained sharply over the past month, with significant improvements in both hospitality and entertainment. Those have been the hardest-hit sectors, but have improved over the past two months as governments have loosened up on some of the harshest restrictions on activity.At the same time, manufacturing is enjoying a boom, with an Institute for Supply Management gauge of activity in the sector hitting its highest level since late 1983 in March.The pace of gains combined with the unprecedented level of government stimulus has kindled worries about inflation, though Federal Reserve officials say any increases will be temporary.The Fed is keeping a close eye on the jobs data, but policymakers have said repeatedly that even with the recent improvements the labor market is nowhere near a point that would push the central bank into raising interest rates.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":340561615,"gmtCreate":1617434471837,"gmtModify":1634520968932,"author":{"id":"3579362351112270","authorId":"3579362351112270","name":"fazrokers","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164b69c4070fb492c3a85d878da98f3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3579362351112270","authorIdStr":"3579362351112270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"great","listText":"great","text":"great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340561615","repostId":"2124875875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}