个人中心 - 老虎社区

Zdes92

IP属地：未知

帖子 · 8帖子 · 8
关注 · 0关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0粉丝 · 0

- Zdes92Zdes92
  ·2021-07-26
  Looking good
  Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote>
  The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafro
  Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote>
  1,637 评论
  4
  分享
  举报
- Zdes92Zdes92
  ·2021-07-25
  Apple is good
  What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>
  Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo
  What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>
  1,666 评论
  2
  分享
  举报
- Zdes92Zdes92
  ·2021-06-18
  Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,785 评论
  点赞
  分享
  举报
- Zdes92Zdes92
  ·2021-06-11
  AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,209 评论
  3
  分享
  举报
- Zdes92Zdes92
  ·2021-06-11
  Ajahhxhdj
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,111 1
  1
  分享
  举报
- Zdes92Zdes92
  ·2021-05-05
  Hmm let's see what happens later
  Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>
  With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from inv
  Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>
  2,005 2
  4
  分享
  举报
- Zdes92Zdes92
  ·2021-05-05
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,960 2
  1
  分享
  举报
- Zdes92Zdes92
  ·2021-05-02
  Ughh
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  2,147 评论
  2
  分享
  举报

热议股票

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3580033952631204","uuid":"3580033952631204","gmtCreate":1617024295710,"gmtModify":1617024295710,"name":"Zdes92","pinyin":"zdes92","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":2,"headSize":260,"tweetSize":8,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-2","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"资深虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2023.12.25","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.27","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.81%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":177713277,"gmtCreate":1627261426399,"gmtModify":1633766802490,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580033952631204","idStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking good","listText":"Looking good","text":"Looking good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177713277","repostId":"1188501846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188501846","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627261010,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188501846?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 08:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188501846","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafro","content":"<p><div> The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国房地产市场似乎正处于不间断的上升状态。美国人口普查局和住房和城市发展部的最新数据发现单户住宅...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Housing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHousing Economist Sanders: Home Price Growth Rate 'Is Not Sustainable'<blockquote>住房经济学家桑德斯：房价增长率“不可持续”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 08:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing ...</p><p><blockquote><div>美国房地产市场似乎正处于不间断的上升状态。美国人口普查局和住房和城市发展部的最新数据发现单户住宅...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FMCC":"房地美","FNMA":"房利美"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/22130567/housing-economist-sanders-home-price-growth-rate-is-not-sustainable","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188501846","content_text":"The U.S. housing market appears to be in a nonstop state of upward ascension. The most recentdatafrom the U.S. Census BureauandDepartment of Housing and Urban Development found single‐family housing starts in June totaled 1.16 million, 6.3% higher than the revised May figure of 1 million.\nOther new data reports from RE/MAX LLCRMAX 0.74%saw home sales up 14.2% from May to June, the largest month-over-month increase since the company began tracking this data 13 years ago, while June’s median sales price of $336,000 was a new record peak.\nTo understand where the housing market is headed, Benzinga spoke with one of the nation’s most prominent housing-focused economists,Dr. Anthony B. Sanders,distinguished professor of real estate finance at George Mason Universityand director and head of asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities research at Deutsche Bank AGDB 1.26%in New York City.\nSanders’ input has been sought in Congressional hearings and by the Bank of England, European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.\nQ: What role does housing play in today's U.S. economy?\nSanders:Housing has always been important in the U.S. economy, but less so today than during the 2000s.\nDuring the 2000s, housing was an easy way to grow GDP (in the same way China builds massive housing projects to boost GDP). But since the housing bubble burst in 2008, leading to the financial crisis, the federal government could not rely on an easy GDP approach since housing is a consumption good, not an investment good. That is, the U.S. was not building plants to produce goods while China was building plants.\nQ: All recent data is pointing to median home prices at or near record highs. Is this feasible? And how long can prices go up before they stall or go down?\nSanders:Particularly in coastal cities, house prices are at record high, exceeding prices during the infamous housing bubble of 2005-2007. This rate of growth is not sustainable, since the ratio of house price growth to earnings growth is even worse than at the peak of the housing bubble. Then, we have the Federal Reserve which is talking about reducing its Agency MBS, which will put upward pressure on mortgage rates.\nQ: What impact will the new elevated inflation rates have on home buying?\nSanders:Inflation is a dangerous economic phenomenon. Wages are typically sticky with inflation, but home prices surge during inflationary periods. This makes housing even more unaffordable.\nIn the past, attempts at inflation-protected mortgage products like PLAMs (price-level adjusted mortgages) failed.\nThanks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, adjustable-rate mortgages (that offer inflation protection to lenders and mortgage holders) is only at 3.3% of mortgages, leaving a whopping 96.7% of mortgages as long-term, fixed-rate mortgages.\nThirty-year fixed-rate mortgages are particularly sensitive to inflationary pressures and interest rate increases. In other words, the Federal Reserve has boxed the mortgage market into a corner ... of risk.\nQ: Home construction is more expensive than ever, with increased supply costs and a shrinking labor pool. How are home builders responding to this, and what does it mean for buyers?\nSanders:Even though lumber costs have been declining after the spike in price, the cost to build a home is higher than ever. Complicating the federal government's push for affordable housing are local supply constraints, such as zoning laws that discourage new construction.\nQ: Speaking of the federal government, what is going to happen to the housing market when the federal moratoriums on forbearance and evictions expire? Will we see a rush of foreclosure filings and tenants kicked out of rental housing to make room for others who can pay higher rents?\nSanders:What will happen when the moratoriums and forbearances have been lifted is hotly debated. Once again, skyrocketing housing prices and sticky wage growth is not a recipe for success when the moratoriums and forbearance programs are lifted.\nThe Biden administration issued afact sheetto help stem the anticipated spike in foreclosures.\nQ: What is the Biden housing policy? And where is HUD SecretaryMarcia Fudgein the policy making? Lately, she seems to be talking about COVID and infrastructure a lot, but what is she doing for housing?\nSanders:Biden and his team look like \"deer in the headlights\" with regards to housing policy. It is difficult to have a sane \"affordable\" housing policy with runaway housing prices (which is also inflationary).\nHUD SecretaryShaun Donovanunder President Obama at least conceded that most low-income families were better off renting their dwelling and he focused on multifamily programs, not chasing homeownership rates.\nNo one knows what Fudge is thinking about housing policy, but the fact sheet from the Biden administration (which was not signed by HUD Secretary Fudge) seems more like \"deer in the headlights\" policy making. Or sheer panic.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FMCC":0.9,"FNMA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177982215,"gmtCreate":1627176060037,"gmtModify":1633767502611,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580033952631204","idStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple is good","listText":"Apple is good","text":"Apple is good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177982215","repostId":"2153938547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153938547","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627085070,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153938547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153938547","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo","content":"<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望在其智能手机业务中实现大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报发布时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 08:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果财报预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管在周二下午讨论业绩时透露更多有关下一次iPhone发布的暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能使苹果在第二季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这场大流行可能会给通常伴随苹果公司六月季度电话会议的猜谜游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常最重要的花絮来自第三财季收益，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a>定于周二下午公布该公司对9月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一款智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在本财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而较弱的指引可能表明推出将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这一次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟发布正式展望一年多，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以表明其业绩与前几个季度的业绩相比如何，但众所周知，它对iPhone发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness、Crespi、Hardt&amp;Co.分析师Brian写道：“我们预计iPhone 13的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的摇摆因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更精细的方向性评论。”怀特。</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将推出的产品令人非常感兴趣。Barclays分析师Tim Long写道：“iPhone 12周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的六月季度数据传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>随着消费者等待下一款iPhone的发布，但该公司仍有望在其智能手机业务中实现大幅增长。该公司不仅可以轻松地与疫情早期进行比较，而且还应该从异常促销的无线行业中获得回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为1.01美元，高于去年同期的65美分。根据Estimize（对冲基金、学者和其他人的众包预测）的数据，平均预期每股收益为1.16美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet一致认为评级的总收入为732.6亿美元，高于一年前的596.9亿美元。根据Estimize，平均估计为773.8亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中的四份后下跌，尽管该股在过去12个月内上涨了60%，道琼斯工业平均指数上涨了32%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet追踪的44名研究苹果股票的分析师中，33名给予买入评级，9名给予持有评级，2名给予卖出评级，平均目标价为157.88美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么值得注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的iPhone业务有望实现至少三年来的第二大增长率，仅次于上一季度。FactSet追踪的分析师预计iPhone营收为342亿美元，同比增长29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大规模的iPhone促销活动，试图与竞争对手AT&amp;T Inc.的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon首席财务官Matthew Ellis在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度势头强劲，我们安排了促销活动，以充分利用经济复苏和客户活动增加的机会。”威瑞森大约20%的消费者现在使用支持5G的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们可能有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>“如果免费提供基本型号，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元升级到更高端型号，”他在分析去年补贴的基础上写道。</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师David Vogt也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极迹象，例如“积极的促销活动”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他行业，该公司的整体上涨空间受到“限制”。苹果在其收益看涨期权中解决了这些问题，预计6月份季度的负面收入影响将达到30亿至40亿美元，预计主要影响Mac和iPad业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，考虑到家庭以外更正常的活动，这两个部分如何更普遍地保持下去。苹果的Mac和iPad在那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和学校教育的人中很受欢迎，但分析师将关注个人电脑的繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA分析师安吉洛·齐诺(Angelo Zino)写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在[6月季度]及其后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别的近期有利因素。”“我们看到，随着全球经济全面重新开放，企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的丰富多彩的iMac系列和功能强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都是在春季推出的，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153938547","content_text":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.\nThe pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.\nTypically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple $(AAPL)$ is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.\nThe problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.\n\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White.\nThe coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.\nThe June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower one, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.\nWhat to watch for\nEarnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.\nRevenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.\nOn a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.\nStock movement: Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.\nOf the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.\nWhat else to watch for\nApple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.\nSome encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. $(VZ)$, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&T Inc. $(T)$\n\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.\n\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.\nUBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.\nBut he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.\nAnother key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.\n\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"\nThe coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1666,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168170515,"gmtCreate":1623968913337,"gmtModify":1634025202049,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580033952631204","idStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","listText":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","text":"Ghhghkjggbbjjjhgvbbvgjjffdsdghhbvgjkmbgkjvghbhujbbbnjjjh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168170515","repostId":"2144742686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1785,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181146000,"gmtCreate":1623380841300,"gmtModify":1634033959156,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580033952631204","idStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","listText":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","text":"AjajxhxjznhJJxjxcv","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181146000","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181148121,"gmtCreate":1623380811863,"gmtModify":1634033959757,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580033952631204","idStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ajahhxhdj","listText":"Ajahhxhdj","text":"Ajahhxhdj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181148121","repostId":"2142022769","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2111,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102084436,"gmtCreate":1620168788025,"gmtModify":1634207377746,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580033952631204","idStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","listText":"Hmm let's see what happens later&nbsp;","text":"Hmm let's see what happens later","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102084436","repostId":"1107772617","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107772617","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620139709,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107772617?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107772617","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from inv","content":"<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Why you should worry about the flood of new cash into U.S. stock funds<blockquote>观点：为什么你应该担心新现金涌入美国股票基金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-04 22:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>With investments, popular is not better.</b>U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.</p><p><blockquote><b>有了投资，受欢迎并不是更好。</b>美国股票基金现在正从投资者那里获得大量新现金——这并不是一个看涨的迹象。</blockquote></p><p>Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者可能会有不同的看法——大量现金流入是积极的。事实上，资金流动是一个逆向指标：过去美国股市在现金净流出时表现更好。</blockquote></p><p>The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.</p><p><blockquote>下图总结了证据，该图绘制了过去十年中每年流入美国股票基金（开放式基金和交易所交易基金）的现金净额。请注意，自2010年以来，除了两年之外，所有年份都有净流出。</blockquote></p><p><b>Reversal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>逆转</b></blockquote></p><p>Net flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billions</p><p><blockquote>流入美国股票（开放式基金和ETF）的净流量，单位：十亿</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c9c4ef1e3533acd3d248af32cdf728f\" tg-width=\"780\" tg-height=\"308\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>This 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)</p><p><blockquote>2010年至2020年期间，美国股市表现极其强劲。然而，在此期间，美国股票基金经历了7410亿美元的净流出。（数据来自TrimTabs，EPFR是Informa Financial Intelligence的一个部门。）</blockquote></p><p>This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，这一长期趋势发生了重大逆转。根据TrimTabs的数据，今年前四个月，美国股票基金获得了1423亿美元的净流入。如果这一速度持续全年，2021年将有4270亿美元的净流入——追溯到2010年至2020年总流出的一半以上。</blockquote></p><p>One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.</p><p><blockquote>去年12月的《金融评论》上发表了一项研究，对今年迄今为止的巨额资金流入持悲观态度。这项名为“ETF套利、非基本面需求和回报可预测性”的研究由亚利桑那大学的David Brown、科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的Shaun William Davies和犹他大学的Matthew Ringgenberg进行。研究人员发现，平均而言，在这些极端资金流动后的一年内，流出最多的ETF的表现优于流入最多的ETF。</blockquote></p><p>Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.</p><p><blockquote>另一项得出类似结论的学术研究自一月份以来一直在流传。这项名为“ETF领域注意力的竞争”的研究由俄亥俄州立大学的Itzhak Ben-David和Byungwook Kim、瑞士卢加诺大学的Francesco Franzoni和维拉诺瓦大学的Rabih Moussawi进行。研究人员重点关注专门的ETF，这些ETF是为了利用投资者时尚和市场趋势而创建的，通常在推出后不久就会获得大量现金流入。他们发现，这些ETF在推出后的前五年，经风险调整后平均每年落后市场5%。</blockquote></p><p>The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).</p><p><blockquote>业绩和资金流动之间的微妙关系也在附表中显而易见。第一个列出了年初至今回报最好的10只ETF。第二张表列出了净流入最多的10只ETF。（返回数据来自FactSet；流量数据来自CFRA研究）。</blockquote></p><p>Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，第一个表中的基金都没有出现在第二个表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2e0354f1f5c9cfd5611c3f6e03c3cee\" tg-width=\"887\" tg-height=\"497\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5cd98cfa89435ba9ae4a0bfdedd3891\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"447\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-should-worry-about-the-flood-of-new-cash-into-u-s-stock-funds-11620102925?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107772617","content_text":"With investments, popular is not better.U.S. stock funds now are riding a river of new cash from investors — and that is not a bullish sign.Many investors might see this differently — that a huge influx of cash is positive. In fact, fund flows are a contrarian indicator: the U.S. stock market in the past has performed better when there is a net outflow of cash.The evidence is summarized in the chart below, which plots net inflows of cash to U.S. stock funds (both open-end and exchange-traded funds) by year over the past decade. Notice that in all but two of the years since 2010 there have been net outflows.ReversalNet flows into U.S. equity (open-endded funds and ETF), in billionsThis 2010-2020 period was extremely strong for U.S. stocks. Yet over this time U.S. stock funds experienced a net outflow of $741 billion. (Data are from TrimTabs, a part of EPFR, a division of Informa Financial Intelligence.)This year so far is seeing a major reversal of this longer-term trend. For the first four months of this year, according to TrimTabs, U.S. equity funds have received net inflows of $142.3 billion. If this pace were to continue for the full year, there would be $427 billion of net inflows in 2021 — retracing more than half the total outflow from 2010 through 2020.One study that puts this huge year-to-date inflow in a bearish light appeared last December in the Review of Finance. Entitled “ETF Arbitrage, Non-Fundamental Demand, and Return Predictability,” the study was conducted by David Brown of the University of Arizona, Shaun William Davies of the University of Colorado Boulder and Matthew Ringgenberg of the University of Utah. The researchers found that, on average, the ETFs with the biggest outflows outperformed the ETFs with the biggest inflows for up to a year after these extreme flows.Another academic study that reached a similar conclusion has been circulating since January. Entitled “Competition for Attention in the ETF Space,” the study was conducted by Itzhak Ben-David and Byungwook Kim of Ohio State University, Francesco Franzoni of the University of Lugano in Switzerland and Rabih Moussawi of Villanova University. The researchers focused on the specialized ETFs that are created to capitalize on investor fads and market trends, and which typically receive a big influx of cash soon after launch. They found that these ETFs over their first five years after launch lag the market on a risk-adjusted basis by 5% per year on average.The tenuous relationship between performance and fund flows is evident also in the accompanying tables. The first lists the 10 ETFs with the best year-to-date returns. The second table lists the 10 ETFs with the largest net inflows. (Return data are from FactSet; flow data are from CFRA Research).Notice that none of the funds in the first table appears in the second.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2005,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102085762,"gmtCreate":1620168746156,"gmtModify":1634207378811,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580033952631204","idStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102085762","repostId":"1179044309","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101505161,"gmtCreate":1619920344853,"gmtModify":1634209130122,"author":{"id":"3580033952631204","authorId":"3580033952631204","name":"Zdes92","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3580033952631204","idStr":"3580033952631204"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ughh","listText":"Ughh","text":"Ughh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101505161","repostId":"1155857726","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}