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选择投资的目的是什么？赚钱？学习？还是抵抗通货膨胀

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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-10-07
  Good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,741 评论
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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-10-02
  Good
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-09-28
  Tq
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-09-28
  Tq
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-09-26
  Is it
  中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？
  此轮利率上行可能有何异同? —2021年9月20日~9月26日报告发布时间：2021年09月26日摘要近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点
  中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？
  1,477 评论
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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-09-22
  $iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$ igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF
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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-09-21
  $Apple(AAPL)$ yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.
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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-09-20
  Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage
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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-09-18
  先买在最低点
  Here is where ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) is Expanding and How Long it can Sustain Expenses
  This article was originally published on Simply Wall St News As many investors know, ChargePoint Hol
  Here is where ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) is Expanding and How Long it can Sustain Expenses
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- Winwin8Winwin8
  ·2021-09-17
  CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us
  Down 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?
  This electric vehicle infrastructure company is positioned to capitalize on the energy transition.
  Down 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?
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it","listText":"Is it","text":"Is it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868233950","repostId":"2170176756","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2170176756","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1632648965,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2170176756?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-26 17:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170176756","media":"Kevin策略研究","summary":"此轮利率上行可能有何异同?\n—2021年9月20日~9月26日\n报告发布时间：2021年09月26日\n摘要\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点","content":"<p><b>此轮利率上行可能有何异同?</b></p>\n<p><b>—2021年9月20日~9月26日</b></p>\n<p><b>报告发布时间：2021年09月26日</b></p>\n<p>摘要</p>\n<p>近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行28个基点。此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等。</p>\n<p>往前看，我们维持对长端利率短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，实际利率隐含~100bp上行空间。对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，变动速度及市场所身处环境更关键。</p>\n<p>那么，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?</p>\n<p>1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：如疫情见顶基本对应实际利率见底，而财政政策的进展将会成为催化剂</p>\n<p>2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕。因此相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落、短端利率同样上行这三点不同。这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格会阶段转向价值，但中期还是成长</p>\n<p>3、美股估值：不论标普还是纳指都低于年初利率抬升时水平</p>\n<p>4、美国与非美周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快。对比当前，中国增长已明显放缓，部分新兴还在受疫情影响，进而导致美国和非美增长裂口扩大。因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴资金有流出压力。</p>\n<p>本周焦点：与2月份相比，此轮利率上行可能有哪些异同之处?</p>\n<p>近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行了28个基点(图表1)。</p>\n<p>此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合(图表2)(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，符合我们一直强调的利率上行往往发生在预期阶段、而货币政策正式开始操作时通常反而见顶的历史规律(《关于QE减量的八问八答》)，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已经悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等等(图表3~5)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ab925c8d4fcd3ab9a129741c48aac75\" tg-width=\"875\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f840bb19004d84ee570b9660e466b9d\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>往前看，我们依然维持对于长端利率在短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，以部分“纠正”7~8月份因为疫情升级导致的名义利率大幅回落特别是实际利率定价扭曲的问题。我们测算，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，而实际利率按照与M2和储蓄率的历史关系看可能距离隐含的均衡水平存在~100bp左右的上行空间(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)(图表7~8)。</p>\n<p>对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，2月上一轮利率上行和8月初底部以来的抬升已经不止一次说明了这一问题。相比之下，利率变动的速度以及市场所身处宏观和自身环境更为关键(图表6)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1047b92b61ce2c4d94d022184b63677\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>那么，结合本轮利率上行，如果如我们预期的那样还有进一步空间的话，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?</p>\n<p><b>1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：疫情见顶与财政政策催化剂</b></p>\n<p>从利率短期变化的微观节奏上看，上一轮疫情见顶(1月初)基本对应着实际利率见底，这与当前的环境类似(图表9)。我们注意到近期美国疫情逐步筑顶(图表3)，服务型消费也有回暖迹象(图表10)(《美国服务消费有回暖迹象(9月25日)》)，这也是当前实际利率见底的大背景。</p>\n<p>随后利率在2月初的快速上行，则与当时1.9万亿美元财政刺激出现积极进展的催化剂有直接关系(《美国新一轮财政刺激渐行渐近 2021年2月1日~2月7日》)。往前看，美国9月底到10月中旬也面临一系列的重要的财政政策日程，如5500亿基建计划、包含加税方案的3.5亿财政支出、10月1日新一财年的支出预算(如不能顺利通过则面临政府关门)、10月中旬可能触及的债务上限(可能导致政府违约)(图表12~13)。</p>\n<p>与2月初类似，这一系列财政政策的变化(如新的支出法案通过、或债务上限提升后TGA账户再度回升，图表11)都有可能成为利率变化的催化剂，而中间过程的曲折则可能会对市场造成扰动，这也是我们一再提示对此需要重点关注的原因(《9月海外市场的几个关键变量》)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42013f9424a839f2e3394b1aee3557e5\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"681\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕</b></p>\n<p>虽然在短期微观环境、节奏和事件性催化剂上，此轮利率变化与2月初有一些可以比较和借鉴之处，但是大的经济周期和政策环境已然不同，进而可能导致利率上行的形态和节奏存在差异。</p>\n<p>一方面，美国增长已经不像去年底处于修复的初期，向上的二阶导数最快的阶段逐步过去。从目前增长路径来看，二季度同比高点过去后，三季度原本预计是环比高点，但由于疫情升级在7~8月份造成了较大冲击，三季度反而提供了一个环比低基数，进而有可能推动四季度增长出现不错的环比改善。不过，即便如此，增长最快阶段可能已经逐步过去，明年初或逐步回落(图表14)，除非接下来基建和新一轮财政刺激计划大超预期，但目前来看3.5万亿支出计划存在一定变数。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e546324010cf46bb1ada447f75a75318\" tg-width=\"873\" tg-height=\"361\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>另一方面，货币政策环境已然不同。最新的9月FOMC会议已经传递了较为强烈的QE减量即将开始的信号、而且结束时间也可能比预期预想的更要更鹰派(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，这与2月初的环境是截然不同的(图表15，19)。</p>\n<p>因此综合这两点不同，如果我们上面假设的路径是对的，那么相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短(正式减量后逐步筑顶以反映增长预期的逐步回落)、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落(流动性退出预期纠正被严重扭曲的实际利率定价，而通胀预期则很难再出现年初大宗商品在当时增长加速和再通胀预期下的大幅抬升)、短端利率同样上行(体现货币政策退出的效果)这三点不同(图表16~18，20，22)。</p>\n<p>这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格在利率阶段性上行期间可能会再转向银行等价值股，但由于增长周期也可能逐步回落，我们预计中期可能还是以与大的宏观增长环境相关性较低的成长为主(图表35)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0d5eb532977fb96d503667c00c12b6c\" tg-width=\"879\" tg-height=\"708\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47994d71735efe52ffd31ff6bd197bab\" tg-width=\"876\" tg-height=\"487\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d155963d8454026b91ad7ca914ea436\" tg-width=\"877\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18cb3e41001723f1c98d8172671c206\" tg-width=\"742\" tg-height=\"711\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82c7d3b259e5df5407c186e97bba67e5\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"330\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>3、美股估值：低于年初利率抬升时水平</b></p>\n<p>得益于美股盈利在一二季度持续且大幅的修复，当前美股估值不论是标普500(当前22倍 vs. 年初25~26倍)、还是偏成长的纳斯达克(当前30倍 vs. 年初32倍)，反而都要低于年初利率上行时的水平(图表21)。</p>\n<p>当前流动性和增长环境能够支撑的估值也高于也要高于当时(图表72)。</p>\n<p><b>4、美国与非美的增长周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快</b></p>\n<p>除了上述美国自身增长和政策环境外，美国和非美地区的相对对比也已经出现很大变化。去年底和今年初上一轮利率上行期间，中国和大部分新兴市场也处于增长改善和预期加速向上的阶段，这解释了当时资金大量流入包括中国在内的新兴市场(图表26~27)、美元走弱、以及大宗商品的快速走高。</p>\n<p>但是对比当前，中国增长已经明显放缓，而部分新兴市场还在受疫情升级和缺乏疫苗困扰导致增长一度大幅回落，如越南(图表28~30)。美国和非美国家增长裂口的扩大、叠加美联储政策退出的临近和美债利率上行，可能会在经常账户原本因为疫情提供受损的背景下，资本项下也面临压力。</p>\n<p>因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴市场资金有流出压力的情形。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b289733eadc7cd82eefb3624048197ed\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"610\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58fe36084f4f8b333d587fcc004a4bb3\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>市场动态：FOMC传递鹰派信号，利率美元走强，实际利率抬升，价值跑赢成长</p>\n<p>资产表现：大宗&gt;股&gt;债;利率快速抬升，价值领涨</p>\n<p>过去一周，周一美欧股市一度受港股房地产板块大幅波动波及而回调。周三结束的9月FOMC议息会议从多方面看都更为鹰派，传递了较为强烈的减量信号且结束时间可能更早，但不同资产的反映却存在一定分歧。长端国债在当天并未出现明显抬升，但周四明显上行至1.45%，可能反应了鹰派信号的滞后效果。相比之下，美股市场的表现更为积极，后三天持续反弹修复。不过我们依然建议需要关注利率快速抬升、以及后续一系列财政政策不确定性的可能扰动。利率的上行导致价值股再度领先、FAAMNG为代表的成长股下跌，这与历次规律和我们强调的情形一致。</p>\n<p>整体来看，美元计价下，大宗&gt;股&gt;债;原油、印度、铜领涨，比特币、VIX多头、美国中概、港股领跌。分行业来看，能源、银行、消费者服务等领涨，耐用消费品、房地产、公用事业等领跌。利率方面，10年美债利率快速抬升至1.45%，上升约9bp，其中实际利率抬升10bp，通胀预期下降1bp;美国投资级信用利差走阔，高收益债信用利差收窄。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a83e3d37e64e5da70743d3771c18d3a6\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e3434b0e35a935180ca55d3c9140b7d\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>情绪仓位：美股转为多头，美元净多头增加</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例较上周继续抬升;欧美股市超买程度均抬升，日本、新兴回落;黄金、布油抬升;美股投机性仓位由空转多</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd76be0c1a5bd3741f8748b3369cb10\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb501a93af2a3df319bb559be1ecae29\" tg-width=\"748\" tg-height=\"283\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>资金流向：股市38周流入后首度流出</b></p>\n<p>过去一周，债市流入大幅放缓，股市在连续38周流入后首度转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，欧美股市转为流出，日本及新兴市场加速流入。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5fc6232fa61ab31813c417b88d298ae\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>基本面与政策：欧美9月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> PMI均出现回落且不及预期</b></p>\n<p>美国方面，9月MarkitPMI相对低迷。9月Markit制造业PMI初值降至60.5，创2021年4月以来新低，一定程度上也继续体现了疫情的影响。分项来看，产出创2020年10月以来新低，新订单降至2021年3月以来新低，在手订单抬升至2007年以来最高。生产线仍然受到原材料短缺、运输挑战以及劳动力短缺的困扰。与此同时，出厂价格抬升至历史新高，供应时间也创有记录以来最长。9月Markit服务业PMI初值同样回落至54.4且不及预期。8月新屋开工增幅超预期，建筑许可同样抬升，新屋销售也连续第二个月上涨。</p>\n<p>欧洲方面，9月Markit制造业及服务业PMI均出现回落且不及预期，最大经济体德国的PMI数据同样低于预期，显示出持续的供应链中断以及最近天然气价格的飙升对欧洲经济复苏造成一定困扰。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf1a0196dcbec9084d24308e1215b636\" tg-width=\"870\" tg-height=\"679\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4b1b95f81ecf8fb9f3661a14f7b6033\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"700\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>市场估值：美股估值略低于增长和利率环境支撑水平</b></p>\n<p>当前标普500指数24.9倍静态P/E低于增长(9月Markit制造业PMI=60.5)和流动性(10年美债利率1.45%)能够支撑的合理水平(~25.3倍)。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fa79a0c24e4743004813027fb125e1f\" tg-width=\"871\" tg-height=\"334\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","source":"kevinclyj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金海外：此轮美国利率上行可能有何异同？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-26 17:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/565679.html><strong>Kevin策略研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>此轮利率上行可能有何异同?\n—2021年9月20日~9月26日\n报告发布时间：2021年09月26日\n摘要\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行28个基点。此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/565679.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/565679.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170176756","content_text":"此轮利率上行可能有何异同?\n—2021年9月20日~9月26日\n报告发布时间：2021年09月26日\n摘要\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行28个基点。此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等。\n往前看，我们维持对长端利率短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，实际利率隐含~100bp上行空间。对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，变动速度及市场所身处环境更关键。\n那么，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?\n1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：如疫情见顶基本对应实际利率见底，而财政政策的进展将会成为催化剂\n2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕。因此相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落、短端利率同样上行这三点不同。这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格会阶段转向价值，但中期还是成长\n3、美股估值：不论标普还是纳指都低于年初利率抬升时水平\n4、美国与非美周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快。对比当前，中国增长已明显放缓，部分新兴还在受疫情影响，进而导致美国和非美增长裂口扩大。因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴资金有流出压力。\n本周焦点：与2月份相比，此轮利率上行可能有哪些异同之处?\n近期，美国长端利率再度上行，10年美债利率上周一度超过1.45%，相比8月初的1.17%低点已经上行了28个基点(图表1)。\n此次利率上行恰逢明显偏鹰派的9月FOMC会议后并非巧合(图表2)(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，符合我们一直强调的利率上行往往发生在预期阶段、而货币政策正式开始操作时通常反而见顶的历史规律(《关于QE减量的八问八答》)，而其他一些推动利率上行的种子也已经悄悄埋下，如疫情逐步见顶、财政部TGA账户已经降至2019年以来低位、美联储持续购买实际利率导致市场定价较为扭曲等等(图表3~5)。\n\n往前看，我们依然维持对于长端利率在短期内(减量正式开启前)可能上行的判断，以部分“纠正”7~8月份因为疫情升级导致的名义利率大幅回落特别是实际利率定价扭曲的问题。我们测算，名义利率的均衡水平在1.8%附近，而实际利率按照与M2和储蓄率的历史关系看可能距离隐含的均衡水平存在~100bp左右的上行空间(《实际利率持续为负之“谜”》)(图表7~8)。\n对市场而言，利率的影响并非简单的取决于变动方向，2月上一轮利率上行和8月初底部以来的抬升已经不止一次说明了这一问题。相比之下，利率变动的速度以及市场所身处宏观和自身环境更为关键(图表6)。\n\n那么，结合本轮利率上行，如果如我们预期的那样还有进一步空间的话，我们想探讨的问题是，从各个维度来看，当前与2月初那一轮有何异同之处?又会因此带来何种影响上的差异?\n1、微观节奏和催化剂存在可比之处：疫情见顶与财政政策催化剂\n从利率短期变化的微观节奏上看，上一轮疫情见顶(1月初)基本对应着实际利率见底，这与当前的环境类似(图表9)。我们注意到近期美国疫情逐步筑顶(图表3)，服务型消费也有回暖迹象(图表10)(《美国服务消费有回暖迹象(9月25日)》)，这也是当前实际利率见底的大背景。\n随后利率在2月初的快速上行，则与当时1.9万亿美元财政刺激出现积极进展的催化剂有直接关系(《美国新一轮财政刺激渐行渐近 2021年2月1日~2月7日》)。往前看，美国9月底到10月中旬也面临一系列的重要的财政政策日程，如5500亿基建计划、包含加税方案的3.5亿财政支出、10月1日新一财年的支出预算(如不能顺利通过则面临政府关门)、10月中旬可能触及的债务上限(可能导致政府违约)(图表12~13)。\n与2月初类似，这一系列财政政策的变化(如新的支出法案通过、或债务上限提升后TGA账户再度回升，图表11)都有可能成为利率变化的催化剂，而中间过程的曲折则可能会对市场造成扰动，这也是我们一再提示对此需要重点关注的原因(《9月海外市场的几个关键变量》)。\n\n2、整体增长和政策环境已经不同：增长处于修复尾声、政策处于收紧前夕\n虽然在短期微观环境、节奏和事件性催化剂上，此轮利率变化与2月初有一些可以比较和借鉴之处，但是大的经济周期和政策环境已然不同，进而可能导致利率上行的形态和节奏存在差异。\n一方面，美国增长已经不像去年底处于修复的初期，向上的二阶导数最快的阶段逐步过去。从目前增长路径来看，二季度同比高点过去后，三季度原本预计是环比高点，但由于疫情升级在7~8月份造成了较大冲击，三季度反而提供了一个环比低基数，进而有可能推动四季度增长出现不错的环比改善。不过，即便如此，增长最快阶段可能已经逐步过去，明年初或逐步回落(图表14)，除非接下来基建和新一轮财政刺激计划大超预期，但目前来看3.5万亿支出计划存在一定变数。\n\n另一方面，货币政策环境已然不同。最新的9月FOMC会议已经传递了较为强烈的QE减量即将开始的信号、而且结束时间也可能比预期预想的更要更鹰派(《9月FOMC：减量可能很快开启》)，这与2月初的环境是截然不同的(图表15，19)。\n因此综合这两点不同，如果我们上面假设的路径是对的，那么相比2月，本轮利率变化可能呈现出上行周期比较短(正式减量后逐步筑顶以反映增长预期的逐步回落)、实际利率主导而通胀预期持平甚至回落(流动性退出预期纠正被严重扭曲的实际利率定价，而通胀预期则很难再出现年初大宗商品在当时增长加速和再通胀预期下的大幅抬升)、短端利率同样上行(体现货币政策退出的效果)这三点不同(图表16~18，20，22)。\n这一背景下，黄金或将继续承压、股票风格在利率阶段性上行期间可能会再转向银行等价值股，但由于增长周期也可能逐步回落，我们预计中期可能还是以与大的宏观增长环境相关性较低的成长为主(图表35)。\n\n3、美股估值：低于年初利率抬升时水平\n得益于美股盈利在一二季度持续且大幅的修复，当前美股估值不论是标普500(当前22倍 vs. 年初25~26倍)、还是偏成长的纳斯达克(当前30倍 vs. 年初32倍)，反而都要低于年初利率上行时的水平(图表21)。\n当前流动性和增长环境能够支撑的估值也高于也要高于当时(图表72)。\n4、美国与非美的增长周期不同：美国依然稳健、非美放缓更快\n除了上述美国自身增长和政策环境外，美国和非美地区的相对对比也已经出现很大变化。去年底和今年初上一轮利率上行期间，中国和大部分新兴市场也处于增长改善和预期加速向上的阶段，这解释了当时资金大量流入包括中国在内的新兴市场(图表26~27)、美元走弱、以及大宗商品的快速走高。\n但是对比当前，中国增长已经明显放缓，而部分新兴市场还在受疫情升级和缺乏疫苗困扰导致增长一度大幅回落，如越南(图表28~30)。美国和非美国家增长裂口的扩大、叠加美联储政策退出的临近和美债利率上行，可能会在经常账户原本因为疫情提供受损的背景下，资本项下也面临压力。\n因此，与上一轮利率上行初期美元走弱、资金流入新兴市场不同，我们预计本轮可能会伴随着美元相对偏强、而新兴市场资金有流出压力的情形。\n\n市场动态：FOMC传递鹰派信号，利率美元走强，实际利率抬升，价值跑赢成长\n资产表现：大宗>股>债;利率快速抬升，价值领涨\n过去一周，周一美欧股市一度受港股房地产板块大幅波动波及而回调。周三结束的9月FOMC议息会议从多方面看都更为鹰派，传递了较为强烈的减量信号且结束时间可能更早，但不同资产的反映却存在一定分歧。长端国债在当天并未出现明显抬升，但周四明显上行至1.45%，可能反应了鹰派信号的滞后效果。相比之下，美股市场的表现更为积极，后三天持续反弹修复。不过我们依然建议需要关注利率快速抬升、以及后续一系列财政政策不确定性的可能扰动。利率的上行导致价值股再度领先、FAAMNG为代表的成长股下跌，这与历次规律和我们强调的情形一致。\n整体来看，美元计价下，大宗>股>债;原油、印度、铜领涨，比特币、VIX多头、美国中概、港股领跌。分行业来看，能源、银行、消费者服务等领涨，耐用消费品、房地产、公用事业等领跌。利率方面，10年美债利率快速抬升至1.45%，上升约9bp，其中实际利率抬升10bp，通胀预期下降1bp;美国投资级信用利差走阔，高收益债信用利差收窄。\n\n情绪仓位：美股转为多头，美元净多头增加\n过去一周，美股看空/看多期权比例较上周继续抬升;欧美股市超买程度均抬升，日本、新兴回落;黄金、布油抬升;美股投机性仓位由空转多\n\n资金流向：股市38周流入后首度流出\n过去一周，债市流入大幅放缓，股市在连续38周流入后首度转为流出，货币基金转为流入。分市场看，欧美股市转为流出，日本及新兴市场加速流入。\n\n基本面与政策：欧美9月Markit PMI均出现回落且不及预期\n美国方面，9月MarkitPMI相对低迷。9月Markit制造业PMI初值降至60.5，创2021年4月以来新低，一定程度上也继续体现了疫情的影响。分项来看，产出创2020年10月以来新低，新订单降至2021年3月以来新低，在手订单抬升至2007年以来最高。生产线仍然受到原材料短缺、运输挑战以及劳动力短缺的困扰。与此同时，出厂价格抬升至历史新高，供应时间也创有记录以来最长。9月Markit服务业PMI初值同样回落至54.4且不及预期。8月新屋开工增幅超预期，建筑许可同样抬升，新屋销售也连续第二个月上涨。\n欧洲方面，9月Markit制造业及服务业PMI均出现回落且不及预期，最大经济体德国的PMI数据同样低于预期，显示出持续的供应链中断以及最近天然气价格的飙升对欧洲经济复苏造成一定困扰。\n\n市场估值：美股估值略低于增长和利率环境支撑水平\n当前标普500指数24.9倍静态P/E低于增长(9月Markit制造业PMI=60.5)和流动性(10年美债利率1.45%)能够支撑的合理水平(~25.3倍)。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"UBmain":0.9,"ZBmain":0.9,"ZFmain":0.9,"ZNmain":0.9,"ZTmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869872642,"gmtCreate":1632275920486,"gmtModify":1632801552279,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IGV\">$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$</a>&nbsp;igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IGV\">$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$</a>&nbsp;igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF&nbsp;","text":"$iShares North American Tech-Software ETF(IGV)$ igv is a great combination of 150 tech stock. You may consider the ETF","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e103ee92395c3c7a1f4ef780d2e6fce","width":"1080","height":"2608"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869872642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860560063,"gmtCreate":1632188871152,"gmtModify":1632802194019,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$ yesterday is a good time to buy more apple.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/948689f325006159e5a6b18e9f123ab1","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860560063","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1140,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860982782,"gmtCreate":1632121895246,"gmtModify":1632802702486,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage&nbsp;","listText":"Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage&nbsp;","text":"Apple recently trend but in able to keep it in high percentage","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a337ecef694c8e6e9f00298debc505d","width":"1080","height":"2737"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860982782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":884576406,"gmtCreate":1631923513405,"gmtModify":1632805363305,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"先买在最低点","listText":"先买在最低点","text":"先买在最低点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884576406","repostId":"2168754240","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2168754240","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631829342,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2168754240?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-17 05:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here is where ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) is Expanding and How Long it can Sustain Expenses","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168754240","media":"Simply Wall St.","summary":"This article was originally published on Simply Wall St News\nAs many investors know, ChargePoint Hol","content":"<html><body><p><em>This article was originally published on Simply Wall St News</em></p>\n<p>As many investors know, <strong>ChargePoint Holdings</strong> (NYSE:CHPT) markets networked <strong>electric vehicle (“EV”) charging system infrastructure</strong> (“Networked Charging Systems”) and cloud-based services which connect customers to the charging stations.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint is currently a market leader in North America in commercial Level 2 Alternating Current (“AC”) charging, where it has the largest market share. <strong>The company is also expanding into Europe</strong> with the rationale that a mix between EV usage growth and government incentives that drive down the cost for EV's will provide opportunities for revenue growth.</p>\n<p>Most of the Europe expansion is occurring by way of acquisitions, and ChargePoint is currently integrating 2 companies:</p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>has.to.be gmbh (“has.to.be” or “HTB”) for approximately Euro 250.0 million in cash and Company common stock subject to adjustments. has.to.be is an <strong>Austria-based e-mobility provider</strong> with a European charging software platform.</em></li>\n<li><em>ViriCiti B.V. (“ViriCiti”) for approximately Euro 75.0 million in cash, subject to adjustments. ViriCiti is a Netherlands-based provider of electrification solutions for eBus and commercial fleets.</em></li>\n</ul>\n<p>We will take a quick overview of the current performance of the company, and a deeper dive into the capacity of ChargePoint to finance growth projects, which should yield cash flows for investors. <em>Always keep in mind the end-game when looking at a business, it is their ability to generate cash flows to investors (and lenders), not revenues, not even net income (statutory profits).</em></p>\n<p>From the get-go we have a large red flag, as the company is operating since 2007 and has incurred net operating losses and negative cash flows from operations every year since its inception. Additionally, we looked at the projections, and it is hard to see this company becoming profitable in the next 3 years. None of this is actually bad, it may well be worth the wait, but investors should be aware that they are buying into a company whose market cap, values the present value of cash flows above US$6.6b!</p>\n<p>Les's see how the company stands according to the latest report.</p>\n<p>On the 3rd of September, ChargePoint release its second quarter 2021 earnings. The company reported a mediocre second quarter result with increased losses and weaker control over costs, although revenues improved.</p>\n<p>Second quarter 2022 results:</p>\n<ul>\n<li><em>Revenue: US$56.1m (up 61% from 2Q 2021)</em></li>\n<li><em>Net loss: US$84.9m (loss widened 141% from 2Q 2021)</em></li>\n</ul>\n<p>The revenues are on route and growing. The company even issued an update on guidance, raising revenue expectations to US$235m for the whole Fiscal Year 2021.</p>\n<p>The net loss position is a feature of a developing company, because they have to make massive reinvestments in order to attain the market share needed to turn a profit. Continually investing necessitates a clear path to profitability for the company, as well as a sense of the extent of the profit potential. In other words, management needs to come up with a clear path to when the company will be profitable and by what margin.</p>\n<p><span> <span>View our latest analysis for ChargePoint Holdings</span> </span></p>\n<p>Now that we have a sense of the business performance and what to expect going forward, let's examine ChargePoint's capacity to fund projects before breaking profit.</p>\n<h3><span>How Long Is ChargePoint Holdings' Cash Runway?</span></h3>\n<p><span>A cash runway is defined as the length of time it would take a company to run out of money if it kept spending at its current rate of cash burn.</span></p>\n<p><span>In July 2021, <strong>ChargePoint Holdings had US$618m in cash</strong>, and was debt-free.</span> <span>Importantly, its cash burn was US$116m over the trailing twelve months.</span> <span>Meaning that it had a <strong>cash runway of about 5.3 years from July 2021.</strong></span><strong> </strong></p>\n<p><span>Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.</span></p>\n<figure>\n<img src=\"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/YKh9yxyMuhLiQ2IWhkBfOw--/cT03NTthcHBpZD15dmlkZW9mZWVkczs-/https://media.zenfs.com/en/simply_wall_st__316/78dfb35e5959e0b675d79cd9809cc82d\"/>\n<figcaption>\n  NYSE:CHPT Debt to Equity History September 16th 2021\n </figcaption>\n</figure>\n<h3>How Well Is ChargePoint Holdings Growing?</h3>\n<p><span>Some investors might find it troubling that ChargePoint Holdings is actually <em>increasing</em> its cash burn, which is up 22% in the last year.</span> <span>The silver lining is that revenue was up 22%, showing the business is growing at the top line.</span></p>\n<p><span>While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all.</span> <span>For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.</span></p>\n<h3><span>How Hard Would It Be For ChargePoint Holdings To Raise More Cash For Growth?</span></h3>\n<p><span>While ChargePoint seems to be in a decent position, we reckon it is still worth thinking about how easily it could raise more cash, as companies that are still developing tend to use investor funding.</span></p>\n<p><span>Many companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth.</span> <span>By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalization, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.</span></p>\n<p><span>ChargePoint Holdings' cash burn of US$116m is about 1.7% of its US$6.6b market capitalization.</span> <span>So it could  easily raise the cash by issuing a few shares.</span></p>\n<h3><span>Key Takeaways</span></h3>\n<p>ChargePoint is in the initial phases of developing its business model since it became a publicly traded company. Growth is well under way, but the company is far from profitable, and it is hard to estimate what the profit margins will look like when the company grows. This adds on to the risk of investing, since investors are speculating on what the cash flows are going to look like 10 or more years from now.</p>\n<p>The company is heavily investing into projects and is also moving into Europe, currently by way of acquisitions. The capacity for investing based on the current cash and expenditures is some good 5.3 years. Investors would note, that at present market valuation the company can easily raise additional capital by issuing additional shares and with that, extend the cash runway for developing the business.</p>\n<p><span>It's important for readers to be cognizant of the risks that can affect the company's operations, and we've picked out <strong>3 warning signs for ChargePoint Holdings</strong> that investors should know when investing in the stock.</span></p>\n<p><span>Of course <strong>ChargePoint Holdings may not be the best stock to buy</strong>. So you may wish to see this <strong>free</strong> collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.</span></p>\n<p><i>Simply Wall St analyst Goran Damchevski and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.</i></p>\n<p><strong>Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly.</strong><em> Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com</em></p></body></html>","source":"yahoofinance","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here is where ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) is Expanding and How Long it can Sustain Expenses</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere is where ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) is Expanding and How Long it can Sustain Expenses\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-17 05:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-chargepoint-nyse-chpt-expanding-215542802.html><strong>Simply Wall St.</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>This article was originally published on Simply Wall St News\nAs many investors know, ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE:CHPT) markets networked electric vehicle (“EV”) charging system infrastructure (“...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-chargepoint-nyse-chpt-expanding-215542802.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/Bcu5LYtfzP5eCpZp1OC98Q--~B/aD00MzI7dz0xMTk0O2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://s.yimg.com/uu/api/res/1.2/pqyYOHxaWH.8u18Gy5gkHQ--~B/aD00MzI7dz0xMTk0O2FwcGlkPXl0YWNoeW9u/https://media.zenfs.com/en/simply_wall_st__316/6ab18196d6ec761f9ba75009bcc254c6","relate_stocks":{"CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc."},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-chargepoint-nyse-chpt-expanding-215542802.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5f26f4a48f9cb3e29be4d71d3ba8c038","article_id":"2168754240","content_text":"This article was originally published on Simply Wall St News\nAs many investors know, ChargePoint Holdings (NYSE:CHPT) markets networked electric vehicle (“EV”) charging system infrastructure (“Networked Charging Systems”) and cloud-based services which connect customers to the charging stations.\nChargePoint is currently a market leader in North America in commercial Level 2 Alternating Current (“AC”) charging, where it has the largest market share. The company is also expanding into Europe with the rationale that a mix between EV usage growth and government incentives that drive down the cost for EV's will provide opportunities for revenue growth.\nMost of the Europe expansion is occurring by way of acquisitions, and ChargePoint is currently integrating 2 companies:\n\nhas.to.be gmbh (“has.to.be” or “HTB”) for approximately Euro 250.0 million in cash and Company common stock subject to adjustments. has.to.be is an Austria-based e-mobility provider with a European charging software platform.\nViriCiti B.V. (“ViriCiti”) for approximately Euro 75.0 million in cash, subject to adjustments. ViriCiti is a Netherlands-based provider of electrification solutions for eBus and commercial fleets.\n\nWe will take a quick overview of the current performance of the company, and a deeper dive into the capacity of ChargePoint to finance growth projects, which should yield cash flows for investors. Always keep in mind the end-game when looking at a business, it is their ability to generate cash flows to investors (and lenders), not revenues, not even net income (statutory profits).\nFrom the get-go we have a large red flag, as the company is operating since 2007 and has incurred net operating losses and negative cash flows from operations every year since its inception. Additionally, we looked at the projections, and it is hard to see this company becoming profitable in the next 3 years. None of this is actually bad, it may well be worth the wait, but investors should be aware that they are buying into a company whose market cap, values the present value of cash flows above US$6.6b!\nLes's see how the company stands according to the latest report.\nOn the 3rd of September, ChargePoint release its second quarter 2021 earnings. The company reported a mediocre second quarter result with increased losses and weaker control over costs, although revenues improved.\nSecond quarter 2022 results:\n\nRevenue: US$56.1m (up 61% from 2Q 2021)\nNet loss: US$84.9m (loss widened 141% from 2Q 2021)\n\nThe revenues are on route and growing. The company even issued an update on guidance, raising revenue expectations to US$235m for the whole Fiscal Year 2021.\nThe net loss position is a feature of a developing company, because they have to make massive reinvestments in order to attain the market share needed to turn a profit. Continually investing necessitates a clear path to profitability for the company, as well as a sense of the extent of the profit potential. In other words, management needs to come up with a clear path to when the company will be profitable and by what margin.\n View our latest analysis for ChargePoint Holdings \nNow that we have a sense of the business performance and what to expect going forward, let's examine ChargePoint's capacity to fund projects before breaking profit.\nHow Long Is ChargePoint Holdings' Cash Runway?\nA cash runway is defined as the length of time it would take a company to run out of money if it kept spending at its current rate of cash burn.\nIn July 2021, ChargePoint Holdings had US$618m in cash, and was debt-free. Importantly, its cash burn was US$116m over the trailing twelve months. Meaning that it had a cash runway of about 5.3 years from July 2021. \nDepicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.\n\n\n\n  NYSE:CHPT Debt to Equity History September 16th 2021\n \n\nHow Well Is ChargePoint Holdings Growing?\nSome investors might find it troubling that ChargePoint Holdings is actually increasing its cash burn, which is up 22% in the last year. The silver lining is that revenue was up 22%, showing the business is growing at the top line.\nWhile the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.\nHow Hard Would It Be For ChargePoint Holdings To Raise More Cash For Growth?\nWhile ChargePoint seems to be in a decent position, we reckon it is still worth thinking about how easily it could raise more cash, as companies that are still developing tend to use investor funding.\nMany companies end up issuing new shares to fund future growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalization, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.\nChargePoint Holdings' cash burn of US$116m is about 1.7% of its US$6.6b market capitalization. So it could  easily raise the cash by issuing a few shares.\nKey Takeaways\nChargePoint is in the initial phases of developing its business model since it became a publicly traded company. Growth is well under way, but the company is far from profitable, and it is hard to estimate what the profit margins will look like when the company grows. This adds on to the risk of investing, since investors are speculating on what the cash flows are going to look like 10 or more years from now.\nThe company is heavily investing into projects and is also moving into Europe, currently by way of acquisitions. The capacity for investing based on the current cash and expenditures is some good 5.3 years. Investors would note, that at present market valuation the company can easily raise additional capital by issuing additional shares and with that, extend the cash runway for developing the business.\nIt's important for readers to be cognizant of the risks that can affect the company's operations, and we've picked out 3 warning signs for ChargePoint Holdings that investors should know when investing in the stock.\nOf course ChargePoint Holdings may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.\nSimply Wall St analyst Goran Damchevski and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\nHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CHPT":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":884126376,"gmtCreate":1631869615895,"gmtModify":1631890230709,"author":{"id":"3581737028877212","authorId":"3581737028877212","name":"Winwin8","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2560fc5b1bcedf6269f67fe776ac4af5","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581737028877212","authorIdStr":"3581737028877212"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us","listText":"CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us","text":"CHPT is the future to charges the ev car across Europe and Us","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884126376","repostId":"2167935325","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2167935325","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631718924,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2167935325?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 23:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Down 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167935325","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"This electric vehicle infrastructure company is positioned to capitalize on the energy transition.","content":"<p>Shares of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and software company <b>ChargePoint </b>(NYSE:CHPT) are down 55% from their all-time high last December. Similar to other companies that have gone public via special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) or de-SPAC in the past year, ChargePoint is part of a class of stocks that have dramatically underperformed the <b>S&amp;P 500</b>'s 20% year-to-date gain.</p>\n<p>Although it's a hypergrowth company in an attractive industry, there's an argument to be made that ChargePoint's stock price got a little ahead of itself. Now that it's at a discount, there's more room for upside for aspirational shareholders. Let's break down ChargePoint's performance so far this year to see whether the stock has become too cheap to ignore.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F642150%2F1-chargepoint-red-car.jpeg&amp;w=700&amp;op=resize\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"560\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>Recovering from a tough year</h2>\n<p>Part of the reason ChargePoint's stock has come under fire could be its lackluster fiscal year (FY) 2021 performance. FY 2021 represents the 12 months ended Jan. 31 2021.&nbsp;The COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on ChargePoint, as the company generated $146.5 million in revenue in FY 2021, just 1% higher than the $144.5 million in FY 2020.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's goal is to offer a comprehensive charging network and services for commercial customers, fleets, and passenger vehicles. Yet the reality is that commercial sales dominate its revenue mix, accounting for 75% of Q2 FY 2022 revenue.</p>\n<p>Commercial customers can include businesses and office parks that want to offer free or low-cost charging as a perk to their employees and customers. The problem is that this perk becomes a lot less enticing if folks aren't commuting to work or shopping in person, as was the case during the height of the pandemic. The shift to work from home could be permanent for many Americans, a trend that could prove somewhat of an issue for ChargePoint.</p>\n<h2>Scorching hot growth rate</h2>\n<p>Despite these headwinds, ChargePoint did an impressive job putting up a monster top-line figure of $97 million for the first half of FY 2022. Full-year guidance was just raised to a range of $225 million to $235 million, suggesting second-half revenue of around $130 million. If ChargePoint hits its goal, it would represent 57% revenue growth from FY 2021.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint has set some lofty revenue goals for the years ahead -- such as its target of nearly $1 billion in sales by FY 2025. Instead of speculating on the feasibility of that goal, let's focus instead on some positives the business is demonstrating right now.</p>\n<p>One nugget from the company's Q2 FY 2022 earnings call from early September was management's commentary on workplace sales. ChargePoint reported that it's now growing faster on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis than it did in Q2 FY 2020. \"Our business volume is now above pre-COVID levels, and our growth rate is above pre-COVID levels, but COVID is not over yet,\" said CEO Pasquale Romano on the company's Q2 FY 2022 call. \"What we have seen is a mix shift due to COVID, but the overall growth in the space has been more than compensated for by the increased arrival rate in cars relative to the pre-COVID levels that we have seen. So, with all of that said, as workplace returns, it's all upside.\" In sum, ChargePoint is doing just fine even though many folks still aren't going back to the office.</p>\n<p>The company models its revenue forecast based on the number of EVs hitting the road, not where or when people are charging. If ChargePoint is correct that the number of EVs on the road is what really matters when it comes to generating sales, then there's an argument that it could very well sustain a hypergrowth rate for years to come. ChargePoint said its model has proved accurate for the three quarters it has produced as a public company. That's a good start, but too short of a streak to garner much credit.</p>\n<h2>Diversifying the business</h2>\n<p>ChargePoint could stand a better chance at sustaining its high growth rate if it can diversify its revenue mix to include more residential and fleet sales. The good news is that both categories are showing signs of improvement. In the recent quarter, the residential segment was able to grow sales by 79% year over year. ChargePoint called out particular strides from multifamily housing as complexes look to offer charging for their residents.</p>\n<p>In August, ChargePoint announced it was acquiring ViriCiti, a fleet vehicle management provider. ChargePoint's fleet segment had a record Q2 by increasing billings by 187% year over year. Gaining competitive advantages in the fleet business could be game-changing for ChargePoint. From delivery vehicles such as those that <b>United Parcel Service</b> and <b>FedEx</b> use, to <b>Waste Management</b>'s massive garbage trucks, to the needs of trucking and logistics companies, the transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy solutions looks to be a harder challenge for fleets than for passenger cars. However, the fleet segment has a lot of long-term upside if ChargePoint can establish itself as a leader early on and continue to land key partnerships. ViriCiti should improve ChargePoint's offering by letting customers monitor their operations data and gain visibility into fleet performance.</p>\n<h2>The bottom line</h2>\n<p>ChargePoint stock's decline could present a buying opportunity for investors looking for an up-and-coming EV growth stock. Despite strong top-line growth, the company's path to profitability remains unclear. Management continues to prioritize revenue growth and customer acquisitions above positive cash flow or profitability, trusting that results will come with time as the industry matures.</p>\n<p>ChargePoint's investment thesis could take years to play out, and the stock could be quite volatile in the process. But for investors willing to stomach the risks, ChargePoint looks like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the better EV stocks on the market today.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Down 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDown 55% From Its High, Is This Hypergrowth Stock Too Cheap to Ignore?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-15 23:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/down-55-from-its-high-is-this-hypergrowth-stock-to/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Shares of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and software company ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) are down 55% from their all-time high last December. Similar to other companies that have gone ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/down-55-from-its-high-is-this-hypergrowth-stock-to/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHPT":"ChargePoint Holdings Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/09/15/down-55-from-its-high-is-this-hypergrowth-stock-to/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167935325","content_text":"Shares of electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure and software company ChargePoint (NYSE:CHPT) are down 55% from their all-time high last December. Similar to other companies that have gone public via special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) or de-SPAC in the past year, ChargePoint is part of a class of stocks that have dramatically underperformed the S&P 500's 20% year-to-date gain.\nAlthough it's a hypergrowth company in an attractive industry, there's an argument to be made that ChargePoint's stock price got a little ahead of itself. Now that it's at a discount, there's more room for upside for aspirational shareholders. Let's break down ChargePoint's performance so far this year to see whether the stock has become too cheap to ignore.\nImage source: Getty Images.\nRecovering from a tough year\nPart of the reason ChargePoint's stock has come under fire could be its lackluster fiscal year (FY) 2021 performance. FY 2021 represents the 12 months ended Jan. 31 2021. The COVID-19 pandemic took a toll on ChargePoint, as the company generated $146.5 million in revenue in FY 2021, just 1% higher than the $144.5 million in FY 2020.\nChargePoint's goal is to offer a comprehensive charging network and services for commercial customers, fleets, and passenger vehicles. Yet the reality is that commercial sales dominate its revenue mix, accounting for 75% of Q2 FY 2022 revenue.\nCommercial customers can include businesses and office parks that want to offer free or low-cost charging as a perk to their employees and customers. The problem is that this perk becomes a lot less enticing if folks aren't commuting to work or shopping in person, as was the case during the height of the pandemic. The shift to work from home could be permanent for many Americans, a trend that could prove somewhat of an issue for ChargePoint.\nScorching hot growth rate\nDespite these headwinds, ChargePoint did an impressive job putting up a monster top-line figure of $97 million for the first half of FY 2022. Full-year guidance was just raised to a range of $225 million to $235 million, suggesting second-half revenue of around $130 million. If ChargePoint hits its goal, it would represent 57% revenue growth from FY 2021.\nChargePoint has set some lofty revenue goals for the years ahead -- such as its target of nearly $1 billion in sales by FY 2025. Instead of speculating on the feasibility of that goal, let's focus instead on some positives the business is demonstrating right now.\nOne nugget from the company's Q2 FY 2022 earnings call from early September was management's commentary on workplace sales. ChargePoint reported that it's now growing faster on a quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year basis than it did in Q2 FY 2020. \"Our business volume is now above pre-COVID levels, and our growth rate is above pre-COVID levels, but COVID is not over yet,\" said CEO Pasquale Romano on the company's Q2 FY 2022 call. \"What we have seen is a mix shift due to COVID, but the overall growth in the space has been more than compensated for by the increased arrival rate in cars relative to the pre-COVID levels that we have seen. So, with all of that said, as workplace returns, it's all upside.\" In sum, ChargePoint is doing just fine even though many folks still aren't going back to the office.\nThe company models its revenue forecast based on the number of EVs hitting the road, not where or when people are charging. If ChargePoint is correct that the number of EVs on the road is what really matters when it comes to generating sales, then there's an argument that it could very well sustain a hypergrowth rate for years to come. ChargePoint said its model has proved accurate for the three quarters it has produced as a public company. That's a good start, but too short of a streak to garner much credit.\nDiversifying the business\nChargePoint could stand a better chance at sustaining its high growth rate if it can diversify its revenue mix to include more residential and fleet sales. The good news is that both categories are showing signs of improvement. In the recent quarter, the residential segment was able to grow sales by 79% year over year. ChargePoint called out particular strides from multifamily housing as complexes look to offer charging for their residents.\nIn August, ChargePoint announced it was acquiring ViriCiti, a fleet vehicle management provider. ChargePoint's fleet segment had a record Q2 by increasing billings by 187% year over year. Gaining competitive advantages in the fleet business could be game-changing for ChargePoint. From delivery vehicles such as those that United Parcel Service and FedEx use, to Waste Management's massive garbage trucks, to the needs of trucking and logistics companies, the transition from fossil fuels to alternative energy solutions looks to be a harder challenge for fleets than for passenger cars. However, the fleet segment has a lot of long-term upside if ChargePoint can establish itself as a leader early on and continue to land key partnerships. ViriCiti should improve ChargePoint's offering by letting customers monitor their operations data and gain visibility into fleet performance.\nThe bottom line\nChargePoint stock's decline could present a buying opportunity for investors looking for an up-and-coming EV growth stock. Despite strong top-line growth, the company's path to profitability remains unclear. Management continues to prioritize revenue growth and customer acquisitions above positive cash flow or profitability, trusting that results will come with time as the industry matures.\nChargePoint's investment thesis could take years to play out, and the stock could be quite volatile in the process. But for investors willing to stomach the risks, ChargePoint looks like one of the better EV stocks on the market today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CHPT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}