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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Ook. Nice.
  Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>
  Summary Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for div
  Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Why?😔
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,410 评论
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Nice nice....
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  . Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,586 评论
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Buy buy buy
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  🙏🙏🙏
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,656 评论
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  ....... Hmmm
  1,196 评论
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  $Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc.(BHR)$Mmm
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-06-24
  👍
  The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues<blockquote>美联储通胀豪赌仍在继续</blockquote>
  The fed's inflation gamble continues... Are central banks trapped? Last week’s Fed statement and the
  The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues<blockquote>美联储通胀豪赌仍在继续</blockquote>
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Nice.&nbsp;","listText":"Ook. Nice.&nbsp;","text":"Ook. Nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808825764","repostId":"1141389413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141389413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627558905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141389413?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141389413","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for div","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.</li>  <li>Dividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.</li>  <li>Amazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.</li>  <li>Amazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fdb38b961293c938988e9eaeb7df1d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊正在快速增长并产生稳定的自由现金流，但这些现金流目前尚未用于支付股息。</li><li>股息支付可能不会对总回报产生太大影响，而且亚马逊可以将其现金流用于增长型投资，这似乎是目前更好的主意。</li><li>亚马逊最终会在某个时候成熟，亚马逊似乎有可能在那个时候遵循苹果向所有者返还现金的策略。</li><li>亚马逊是一个伟大的增长故事，但它的股票也很昂贵。从长远来看，回报应该是稳健的，但不会极高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司（AMZN）在过去一直是一项伟大的投资，由于强劲的增长率和漫长的增长跑道，它在未来也可能是一项可靠的投资——尽管估值相当高。由于一些收益投资者确实想知道亚马逊是否会支付股息，我们将尝试在本报告中评估这个问题，并为亚马逊股东展示一种立即从投资中产生收入的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊目前支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，这个经常被提出的问题的答案显然是否定的。亚马逊不支付任何股息，从未支付过任何股息，高管也没有任何声明表明亚马逊即将在短期内支付股息。就目前的状态而言，亚马逊是一种纯粹的资本增值业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should Amazon Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊应该支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案并不那么容易，因为这取决于你的观点。一些持有亚马逊股票但通常更喜欢投资创收股票的股东肯定希望看到亚马逊宣布股息。另一方面，成长型投资者会指出这样一个事实，即股息收益率无论如何都会相当低，亚马逊可以将其现金流用于其他方面，例如。通过增长资本支出或收购其他公司。人们当然可以为亚马逊等成长型公司投资其业务以推动未来增长而不是支付股息提供理由。</blockquote></p><p> I personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:</p><p><blockquote>我个人喜欢投资创收股票，但不仅仅如此，所以我也拥有一些资本增值股票，包括亚马逊。我不认为亚马逊支付股息会是一个巨大的优势，因为我认为亚马逊不是那种从支付股息中受益匪浅的公司。我还认为，只有当公司有大量剩余现金流时才应该支付股息，因为支付通过债务融资的股息不会为股东创造价值。看看亚马逊的现金流，我们看到以下情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb9d03526543be149e8628c2939208d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的自由现金流市盈率为83倍，自由现金流收益率为1.2%。无论如何，以股息的形式支付所有现金流都是不可取的，因此如果AMZN支付其自由现金流的50%，其股息收益率将仅为0.6%。到目前为止，这一数字还不足以吸引大量收益投资者购买该股票，也不会对总回报产生有意义的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.</p><p><blockquote>收益率将明显低于投资者从大盘（SPDR标普500指数ETF）获得的1.3%或房地产（VNQ）或公用事业（XLU）等收入投资者友好行业获得的3%。因此，我认为，如果亚马逊开始支付股息，不会有明显的好处。另一方面，即使股息收益率仅为0.6%，每年也会消耗超过100亿美元的现金，而这些现金将无法用于投资。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的核心业务并不具有高利润的性质，但该公司通过投资额外的高价值业务（例如云计算）成功扩大了规模。如果亚马逊每年支付数十亿美元的股息，这些投资将是不可能的，或者只会规模较小。只要亚马逊的管理团队能够找到投资现金获利的方法，这可能是创造股东价值的更好选择。</blockquote></p><p> This does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着事情不会随着时间的推移而改变，因为亚马逊会在某个时候成熟，就像许多其他公司一样。例如，苹果（AAPL）最终开始支付股息，当时其现金流增长如此之大，以至于无法将其全部再投资并获利。同样的事情也很容易在某个时候发生在亚马逊身上，但目前情况似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for&nbsp;$8.5 billion&nbsp;in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>多年来，亚马逊一直在投资大量收购，例如米高梅（OTC：MGMB），该公司将在两个月前宣布的交易中以85亿美元的价格被收购。此举将增强亚马逊Prime Video细分市场的原创内容产品和内容创作能力，这反过来将有助于吸引更多用户，并使亚马逊与迪士尼(DIS)和Netflix(NFLX)相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> Making these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，与以远低于1%的微不足道的收益率将这些数十亿美元返还给股东相比，进行此类战略收购的目标是使公司获得市场份额和未来增长，可能更有用。去年收购自动驾驶汽车科技公司Zoox是另一个非常符合亚马逊整体战略的收购例子。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to&nbsp;possibly enter the robo-taxi market&nbsp;on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊能够在某个时候推出自动送货车辆，它自然会受益匪浅，因为这可以改善其成本状况，并允许更快的送货时间。花钱增强亚马逊在这一领域的能力是有意义的，而且它使亚马逊有可能在此基础上进入机器人出租车市场。将AMZN为Zoox支付的12亿美元支付给股东，相当于0.07%的极小收益率——换句话说，股东基本上不会从中获得任何东西。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，引入股息支付可能有一个好处。如果亚马逊今天开始支付股息，即使利率非常低，它也可能开始建立股息增长记录，这可能会在未来某个时候，当增长放缓而派息增长时，就会出现。方便。一些投资者被连续10年、20年、25年或更长时间提高股息的股票所吸引，因此今天开始建立这一记录可能会带来潜在的未来好处，尽管不是在短期内。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为亚马逊公司今天不应该支付股息，因为增长仍然应该是像亚马逊这样的公司的首要任务。如果亚马逊计划最终成为定期股息支付者，那么引入非常小的股息以建立股息增长记录可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Create Your Own Income Using Options</b></p><p><blockquote><b>使用期权创造自己的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的股票可能会波动，这使得用户可以使用期权策略（例如出售担保评级）来创造收入。</blockquote></p><p> If, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one&nbsp;call option contract&nbsp;with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果投资者拥有100股Amazon股票，并出售一份执行价为4,500美元、到期日为2022年1月的看涨期权期权合约，则投资者将获得每股46美元，即总计4,600美元。相对于当前363,000美元的投资价值，相当于1.3%的现金回报率。同样的过程可以在半年后再次进行，这样年产量将达到2.6%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Using this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用这种策略，投资者可以创造出远高于当今大盘的收益率。该策略的缺点是股票可能会被回调，从而限制了潜在的上涨空间。然而，如果股价到1月份突破4,500美元，然后就会被回调，那么上涨空间仍将为24%。</blockquote></p><p> The strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.</p><p><blockquote>该策略也只有在您持有至少100股AMZN股票的情况下才能有效，由于AMZN的每股价格较高，这需要巨大的投资组合规模。尽管如此，这种策略对于一些喜欢拥有亚马逊但确实想要或需要从投资中获得一些收入的投资者来说可能很有用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:</p><p><blockquote>我相信，亚马逊公司是一家优质公司，拥有巨大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。它处于有利地位，可以利用云计算、在线购物和在线广告等大趋势。另一方面，股票相当昂贵，易手的估值明显高于大多数其他股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf764ff4b0eca336f5b0f39fc149329\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated&nbsp;that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.</p><p><blockquote>按照今年预期净利润的66倍和明年利润的50倍计算，AMZN远非便宜货。还值得注意的是，过去几个月估值有所扩大，3月份股价市盈率下降了20%。几周前，我估计亚马逊从长远来看可以带来高个位数的回报，这并非没有吸引力。但我相信，股票未来不会产生我们过去几年看到的回报。AMZN是一个优质选择，优质公司每年7%-8%的回报率不容小觑，但AMZN目前有点太贵，无法获得强烈买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为亚马逊更接近买入而不是卖出，如果估值回升一点，它可能会非常有吸引力——例如。3月份的交易价格为3,000美元。当然，亚马逊是否是您投资组合的好选择取决于您的投资目标、时间范围和风险承受能力，但我相信，对于那些想要参与其中之一的人来说，亚马逊的股票是可靠的持有和潜在的买入。当今可以投资的最佳增长故事。</blockquote></p><p> It is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于亚马逊的高估值，其股价很可能在近期或中期下跌。我们在过去不时看到这种情况，因此，如果您想最大限度地获得更有利的入场价格的机会，在入场或扩大头寸之前等待最终回调可能是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider<blockquote>亚马逊股票会支付股息吗？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 19:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.</li>  <li>Dividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.</li>  <li>Amazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.</li>  <li>Amazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fdb38b961293c938988e9eaeb7df1d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>亚马逊正在快速增长并产生稳定的自由现金流，但这些现金流目前尚未用于支付股息。</li><li>股息支付可能不会对总回报产生太大影响，而且亚马逊可以将其现金流用于增长型投资，这似乎是目前更好的主意。</li><li>亚马逊最终会在某个时候成熟，亚马逊似乎有可能在那个时候遵循苹果向所有者返还现金的策略。</li><li>亚马逊是一个伟大的增长故事，但它的股票也很昂贵。从长远来看，回报应该是稳健的，但不会极高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊公司（AMZN）在过去一直是一项伟大的投资，由于强劲的增长率和漫长的增长跑道，它在未来也可能是一项可靠的投资——尽管估值相当高。由于一些收益投资者确实想知道亚马逊是否会支付股息，我们将尝试在本报告中评估这个问题，并为亚马逊股东展示一种立即从投资中产生收入的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Does Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊目前支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，这个经常被提出的问题的答案显然是否定的。亚马逊不支付任何股息，从未支付过任何股息，高管也没有任何声明表明亚马逊即将在短期内支付股息。就目前的状态而言，亚马逊是一种纯粹的资本增值业务。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should Amazon Pay Dividends?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊应该支付股息吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案并不那么容易，因为这取决于你的观点。一些持有亚马逊股票但通常更喜欢投资创收股票的股东肯定希望看到亚马逊宣布股息。另一方面，成长型投资者会指出这样一个事实，即股息收益率无论如何都会相当低，亚马逊可以将其现金流用于其他方面，例如。通过增长资本支出或收购其他公司。人们当然可以为亚马逊等成长型公司投资其业务以推动未来增长而不是支付股息提供理由。</blockquote></p><p> I personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:</p><p><blockquote>我个人喜欢投资创收股票，但不仅仅如此，所以我也拥有一些资本增值股票，包括亚马逊。我不认为亚马逊支付股息会是一个巨大的优势，因为我认为亚马逊不是那种从支付股息中受益匪浅的公司。我还认为，只有当公司有大量剩余现金流时才应该支付股息，因为支付通过债务融资的股息不会为股东创造价值。看看亚马逊的现金流，我们看到以下情况：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb9d03526543be149e8628c2939208d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的自由现金流市盈率为83倍，自由现金流收益率为1.2%。无论如何，以股息的形式支付所有现金流都是不可取的，因此如果AMZN支付其自由现金流的50%，其股息收益率将仅为0.6%。到目前为止，这一数字还不足以吸引大量收益投资者购买该股票，也不会对总回报产生有意义的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.</p><p><blockquote>收益率将明显低于投资者从大盘（SPDR标普500指数ETF）获得的1.3%或房地产（VNQ）或公用事业（XLU）等收入投资者友好行业获得的3%。因此，我认为，如果亚马逊开始支付股息，不会有明显的好处。另一方面，即使股息收益率仅为0.6%，每年也会消耗超过100亿美元的现金，而这些现金将无法用于投资。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的核心业务并不具有高利润的性质，但该公司通过投资额外的高价值业务（例如云计算）成功扩大了规模。如果亚马逊每年支付数十亿美元的股息，这些投资将是不可能的，或者只会规模较小。只要亚马逊的管理团队能够找到投资现金获利的方法，这可能是创造股东价值的更好选择。</blockquote></p><p> This does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.</p><p><blockquote>这并不意味着事情不会随着时间的推移而改变，因为亚马逊会在某个时候成熟，就像许多其他公司一样。例如，苹果（AAPL）最终开始支付股息，当时其现金流增长如此之大，以至于无法将其全部再投资并获利。同样的事情也很容易在某个时候发生在亚马逊身上，但目前情况似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for&nbsp;$8.5 billion&nbsp;in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).</p><p><blockquote>多年来，亚马逊一直在投资大量收购，例如米高梅（OTC：MGMB），该公司将在两个月前宣布的交易中以85亿美元的价格被收购。此举将增强亚马逊Prime Video细分市场的原创内容产品和内容创作能力，这反过来将有助于吸引更多用户，并使亚马逊与迪士尼(DIS)和Netflix(NFLX)相比更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> Making these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，与以远低于1%的微不足道的收益率将这些数十亿美元返还给股东相比，进行此类战略收购的目标是使公司获得市场份额和未来增长，可能更有用。去年收购自动驾驶汽车科技公司Zoox是另一个非常符合亚马逊整体战略的收购例子。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to&nbsp;possibly enter the robo-taxi market&nbsp;on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.</p><p><blockquote>如果亚马逊能够在某个时候推出自动送货车辆，它自然会受益匪浅，因为这可以改善其成本状况，并允许更快的送货时间。花钱增强亚马逊在这一领域的能力是有意义的，而且它使亚马逊有可能在此基础上进入机器人出租车市场。将AMZN为Zoox支付的12亿美元支付给股东，相当于0.07%的极小收益率——换句话说，股东基本上不会从中获得任何东西。</blockquote></p><p> It should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，引入股息支付可能有一个好处。如果亚马逊今天开始支付股息，即使利率非常低，它也可能开始建立股息增长记录，这可能会在未来某个时候，当增长放缓而派息增长时，就会出现。方便。一些投资者被连续10年、20年、25年或更长时间提高股息的股票所吸引，因此今天开始建立这一记录可能会带来潜在的未来好处，尽管不是在短期内。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，我认为亚马逊公司今天不应该支付股息，因为增长仍然应该是像亚马逊这样的公司的首要任务。如果亚马逊计划最终成为定期股息支付者，那么引入非常小的股息以建立股息增长记录可能是有意义的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Create Your Own Income Using Options</b></p><p><blockquote><b>使用期权创造自己的收入</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的股票可能会波动，这使得用户可以使用期权策略（例如出售担保评级）来创造收入。</blockquote></p><p> If, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one&nbsp;call option contract&nbsp;with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果投资者拥有100股Amazon股票，并出售一份执行价为4,500美元、到期日为2022年1月的看涨期权期权合约，则投资者将获得每股46美元，即总计4,600美元。相对于当前363,000美元的投资价值，相当于1.3%的现金回报率。同样的过程可以在半年后再次进行，这样年产量将达到2.6%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Using this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.</p><p><blockquote>因此，使用这种策略，投资者可以创造出远高于当今大盘的收益率。该策略的缺点是股票可能会被回调，从而限制了潜在的上涨空间。然而，如果股价到1月份突破4,500美元，然后就会被回调，那么上涨空间仍将为24%。</blockquote></p><p> The strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.</p><p><blockquote>该策略也只有在您持有至少100股AMZN股票的情况下才能有效，由于AMZN的每股价格较高，这需要巨大的投资组合规模。尽管如此，这种策略对于一些喜欢拥有亚马逊但确实想要或需要从投资中获得一些收入的投资者来说可能很有用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>亚马逊现在是买入还是卖出？</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:</p><p><blockquote>我相信，亚马逊公司是一家优质公司，拥有巨大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。它处于有利地位，可以利用云计算、在线购物和在线广告等大趋势。另一方面，股票相当昂贵，易手的估值明显高于大多数其他股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf764ff4b0eca336f5b0f39fc149329\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated&nbsp;that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.</p><p><blockquote>按照今年预期净利润的66倍和明年利润的50倍计算，AMZN远非便宜货。还值得注意的是，过去几个月估值有所扩大，3月份股价市盈率下降了20%。几周前，我估计亚马逊从长远来看可以带来高个位数的回报，这并非没有吸引力。但我相信，股票未来不会产生我们过去几年看到的回报。AMZN是一个优质选择，优质公司每年7%-8%的回报率不容小觑，但AMZN目前有点太贵，无法获得强烈买入评级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我认为亚马逊更接近买入而不是卖出，如果估值回升一点，它可能会非常有吸引力——例如。3月份的交易价格为3,000美元。当然，亚马逊是否是您投资组合的好选择取决于您的投资目标、时间范围和风险承受能力，但我相信，对于那些想要参与其中之一的人来说，亚马逊的股票是可靠的持有和潜在的买入。当今可以投资的最佳增长故事。</blockquote></p><p> It is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于亚马逊的高估值，其股价很可能在近期或中期下跌。我们在过去不时看到这种情况，因此，如果您想最大限度地获得更有利的入场价格的机会，在入场或扩大头寸之前等待最终回调可能是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141389413","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.\nDividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.\nAmazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.\nAmazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.\n\nmarekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.\nDoes Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.\nShould Amazon Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.\nI personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:\nData by YCharts\nThe company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.\nThe yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.\nAmazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.\nThis does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.\nAmazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for $8.5 billion in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).\nMaking these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.\nAmazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to possibly enter the robo-taxi market on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.\nIt should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.\nOverall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.\nCreate Your Own Income Using Options\nAmazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.\nIf, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one call option contract with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.\nUsing this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.\nThe strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.\nIs Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAmazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:\nData by YCharts\nAt 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.\nAmazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.\nIt is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808822433,"gmtCreate":1627569752022,"gmtModify":1633758186383,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why?😔","listText":"Why?😔","text":"Why?😔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808822433","repostId":"1110769108","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1410,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808823679,"gmtCreate":1627569556491,"gmtModify":1633758189508,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice nice....&nbsp;","listText":"Nice nice....&nbsp;","text":"Nice nice....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808823679","repostId":"2155003319","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808820735,"gmtCreate":1627569498327,"gmtModify":1633758190771,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":". Nice&nbsp;","listText":". Nice&nbsp;","text":". Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808820735","repostId":"1131907757","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808864711,"gmtCreate":1627569391133,"gmtModify":1633758192256,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy buy&nbsp;","listText":"Buy buy buy&nbsp;","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808864711","repostId":"2155078999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1720,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808865812,"gmtCreate":1627569334336,"gmtModify":1633758193397,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙏🙏🙏","listText":"🙏🙏🙏","text":"🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808865812","repostId":"1174127311","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808862886,"gmtCreate":1627569292445,"gmtModify":1633758193945,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"....... 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In response to a question in the press conference Chair Powell said:</p><p><blockquote>只有当通胀稳定在2%的目标之上并且美联储认为它已经达到了最大就业部分的任务时，这些预测的加息才会发生。鲍威尔主席在记者招待会上回答提问时说：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… the main message I would take away from the SEP is that many [FOMC] participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the Committee's forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated [i.e., labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment, inflation at 2 percent and on track to exceed 2 percent]. And that [is] a welcome development. If such outcomes materialize, it means the economy will have made faster progress toward our goals.</i>    <i> …… the other thing I'll say is</i>  <i><b>rate increases are really not at all the focus of the Committee.</b></i>  <i>The focus of the Committee is the current state of the economy. …</i>  <i><b>we're [still] very far from maximum employment,</b></i>  <i>for example. …</i>  <i><b>the near-term discussion that will begin is about the path of asset purchases</b></i>  <i>… we [discussed] that today, and expect to continue in future meetings to think about our progress … Lift-off [a hike in the FF-rate] is well into the future …</i>  The Fed has reason to be optimistic about the economy, as economic data, both anecdotal and official data releases have been stronger than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>……我从SEP中得到的主要信息是，许多[FOMC]参与者更放心地认为，委员会前瞻性指引中的经济状况将比之前预期的更快得到满足[即劳动力市场状况与最大就业一致，通胀率为2%，并有望超过2%]。这是一个受欢迎的发展。如果这样的结果成为现实，这意味着经济将朝着我们的目标取得更快的进展。</i><i>……我要说的另一件事是</i><i><b>加息实际上根本不是委员会的重点。</b></i><i>委员会的重点是当前的经济状况……</i><i><b>我们离就业最大化还很远，</b></i><i>比如……</i><i><b>近期将开始的讨论是关于资产购买的路径</b></i><i>……我们今天[讨论]了这个问题，并期望在未来的会议上继续思考我们的进展……升空[提高FF利率]将在未来很长一段时间内……</i>美联储有理由对经济持乐观态度，因为经济数据，无论是传闻数据还是官方数据发布都强于预期。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market in many parts of the country is red hot, employers are scrambling to find workers, retail sales have been strong, and inflation, even taking out the drop from last year has been somewhat elevated.</p><p><blockquote>美国许多地区的房地产市场非常火爆，雇主们都在争先恐后地寻找工人，零售销售强劲，通货膨胀率，即使扣除去年的下降，也有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> And remember the Fed is adding US$80 billion in US Treasuries, and US$40 billion in mortgage-backed securities to its balance sheet each month – that’s $120 billion in extra liquidity flowing straight into already drunk markets.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，美联储每月在其资产负债表上增加800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券——这意味着1200亿美元的额外流动性直接流入已经喝醉的市场。</blockquote></p><p> Assets on the Fed’s balance sheet hit over US$8 trillion last week – that is 36% of US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表上的资产上周超过8万亿美元，占美国GDP的36%。</blockquote></p><p> So here is the trap – not only did gold prices decline by almost 5% last week, but interest rates shot up and the US dollar gained strength – all on the Fed<i>talking about tapering</i>and a forecast of a possible increase more than two years from now. Back to Powell’s press conference for his comments on tapering:</p><p><blockquote>所以陷阱就在这里——上周不仅金价下跌了近5%，而且利率飙升，美元走强——这一切都归咎于美联储<i>谈渐缩</i>并预测两年多后可能会增加。回到鲍威尔在新闻发布会上对tapering的评论：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… [As to when we might consider starting to reduce our asset purchases] you can think of this meeting that we had as</i>  <i><b>the talking about [tapering] meeting</b></i>  <i>…</i>    <i>… We don't think that we're in a situation [where we need to raise rates to control inflation]. We think that</i>  <i><b>the economy is recovering from a deep hole</b></i>  <i>, an unusual hole actually, because it's to do with shutting down the economy. It turns out it's a heck of a lot easier to create demand than it is to bring supply back up to snuff …</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec4fa685f7c5899a9b342d3532c07720\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"574\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e18dc5c6c4033c23e38c134098332cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"578\"></p><p><blockquote><i>……[关于我们何时可能考虑开始减少资产购买]你可以把我们召开的这次会议看作</i><i><b>谈论[缩减]会议</b></i><i>…</i><i>……我们不认为我们处于[需要加息来控制通胀]的境地。我们认为</i><i><b>经济正在从深渊中复苏</b></i><i>事实上，这是一个不寻常的漏洞，因为它与关闭经济有关。事实证明，创造需求比让供应恢复正常要容易得多……</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart</i></p><p><blockquote><i>美元指数(DXY)图表</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Threat of soaring debts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务飙升的威胁</b></blockquote></p><p> If the market reaction is this strong when the Fed only starts mentioning that it is talking about a plan to cut back on asset purchases. Moreover, that there might be an eventual interest rate increase more than two years from now. How do they actually get a plan implemented that doesn’t send the US economy into a downturn?</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储刚开始提及正在讨论削减资产购买计划时，市场反应就如此强烈。此外，两年多后最终可能会加息。他们如何真正实施一项不会让美国经济陷入衰退的计划？</blockquote></p><p> The US government added more than US$5 trillion in debt since the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic in March of 2020. Also, the baseline projection from the Congressional Budget Office is that the US federal budget deficit will average US$1.2 trillion per year over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来，美国政府增加了超过5万亿美元的债务。此外，国会预算办公室的基线预测是，未来十年美国联邦预算赤字平均每年将达到1.2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That’s right this is the baseline projection! It does not include any extra spending that the Biden Administration and Congress may pass (such as the currently debated infrastructure bill). US debt is now more than 100% of GDP. For every 1 percent increase in interest rates, more of the US government revenues are sucked up servicing its debt, which leaves less for other programs, which no politicians want!</p><p><blockquote>没错，这是基线投影！它不包括拜登政府和国会可能通过的任何额外支出（如目前正在争论的基建法案）。美国债务现在超过GDP的100%。利率每上升1%，就有更多的美国政府收入被用来偿还债务，留给其他项目的收入更少，这是任何政治家都不想要的！</blockquote></p><p> And if the US leads the way with interest rate increases this puts more upward pressure on the US dollar. Which is good for US consumers of imported goods, but not good for US exporting companies or their employees.</p><p><blockquote>如果美国率先加息，这将给美元带来更大的上行压力。这对进口商品的美国消费者有利，但对美国出口公司或其员工不利。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line is that the Fed is going to stay behind the inflation curve and lower for longer is still the motto of the day. Higher inflation, low real-rates, and a lower dollar are all good for gold in the long-run!</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储将落后于通胀曲线，并且在更长时间内保持较低水平仍然是当今的座右铭。从长远来看，通胀上升、实际利率下降和美元走低都对黄金有利！</blockquote></p><p> We turn back to Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference for the last word:</p><p><blockquote>我们回到鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上的评论，了解最后一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… the last thing to say is, the</i>  <i><b>dots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.</b></i>  <i>And that's because it's so highly uncertain …</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>……最后要说的是，</i><i><b>dots并不能很好地预测未来利率变动。</b></i><i>这是因为它非常不确定……</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues<blockquote>美联储通胀豪赌仍在继续</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues<blockquote>美联储通胀豪赌仍在继续</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 16:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The fed's inflation gamble continues...</p><p><blockquote>美联储的通胀豪赌仍在继续……</blockquote></p><p> Are central banks trapped?</p><p><blockquote>央行被困住了吗？</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.</p><p><blockquote>上周美联储的声明和随后的新闻发布会被证明是金价下跌90美元（4.8%）的开始。</blockquote></p><p> The fed's inflation gamble continues...</p><p><blockquote>美联储的通胀豪赌仍在继续……</blockquote></p><p> Are central banks trapped?</p><p><blockquote>央行被困住了吗？</blockquote></p><p> Last week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.</p><p><blockquote>上周美联储的声明和随后的新闻发布会被证明是金价下跌90美元（4.8%）的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5f6f4d07713bdee7bee47adab746e65\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"576\"><i>Gold Price Daily Chart</i></p><p><blockquote><i>金价日线图</i></blockquote></p><p> Fed on Economic Recovery</p><p><blockquote>美联储谈经济复苏</blockquote></p><p> The Summary of Economic Projections (known as the dot-plots) released with the statement showed that committee members changed their median projection for the Fed Funds rate from its current rate of 0.1% to 0.6% by 2023 year-end – an increase of 0.5% or two rate increases more than two years from now.</p><p><blockquote>与声明一起发布的经济预测摘要（称为点阵图）显示，委员会成员将联邦基金利率的预测中值从目前的0.1%更改为2023年底的0.6%，增幅为0.5%或两年多后两次加息。</blockquote></p><p> And these forecasted rate increases will only happen if inflation is well anchored above the 2% target and the Fed feels it has met its maximum employment part of the mandate. In response to a question in the press conference Chair Powell said:</p><p><blockquote>只有当通胀稳定在2%的目标之上并且美联储认为它已经达到了最大就业部分的任务时，这些预测的加息才会发生。鲍威尔主席在记者招待会上回答提问时说：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… the main message I would take away from the SEP is that many [FOMC] participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the Committee's forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated [i.e., labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment, inflation at 2 percent and on track to exceed 2 percent]. And that [is] a welcome development. If such outcomes materialize, it means the economy will have made faster progress toward our goals.</i>    <i> …… the other thing I'll say is</i>  <i><b>rate increases are really not at all the focus of the Committee.</b></i>  <i>The focus of the Committee is the current state of the economy. …</i>  <i><b>we're [still] very far from maximum employment,</b></i>  <i>for example. …</i>  <i><b>the near-term discussion that will begin is about the path of asset purchases</b></i>  <i>… we [discussed] that today, and expect to continue in future meetings to think about our progress … Lift-off [a hike in the FF-rate] is well into the future …</i>  The Fed has reason to be optimistic about the economy, as economic data, both anecdotal and official data releases have been stronger than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>……我从SEP中得到的主要信息是，许多[FOMC]参与者更放心地认为，委员会前瞻性指引中的经济状况将比之前预期的更快得到满足[即劳动力市场状况与最大就业一致，通胀率为2%，并有望超过2%]。这是一个受欢迎的发展。如果这样的结果成为现实，这意味着经济将朝着我们的目标取得更快的进展。</i><i>……我要说的另一件事是</i><i><b>加息实际上根本不是委员会的重点。</b></i><i>委员会的重点是当前的经济状况……</i><i><b>我们离就业最大化还很远，</b></i><i>比如……</i><i><b>近期将开始的讨论是关于资产购买的路径</b></i><i>……我们今天[讨论]了这个问题，并期望在未来的会议上继续思考我们的进展……升空[提高FF利率]将在未来很长一段时间内……</i>美联储有理由对经济持乐观态度，因为经济数据，无论是传闻数据还是官方数据发布都强于预期。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market in many parts of the country is red hot, employers are scrambling to find workers, retail sales have been strong, and inflation, even taking out the drop from last year has been somewhat elevated.</p><p><blockquote>美国许多地区的房地产市场非常火爆，雇主们都在争先恐后地寻找工人，零售销售强劲，通货膨胀率，即使扣除去年的下降，也有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> And remember the Fed is adding US$80 billion in US Treasuries, and US$40 billion in mortgage-backed securities to its balance sheet each month – that’s $120 billion in extra liquidity flowing straight into already drunk markets.</p><p><blockquote>请记住，美联储每月在其资产负债表上增加800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券——这意味着1200亿美元的额外流动性直接流入已经喝醉的市场。</blockquote></p><p> Assets on the Fed’s balance sheet hit over US$8 trillion last week – that is 36% of US GDP.</p><p><blockquote>美联储资产负债表上的资产上周超过8万亿美元，占美国GDP的36%。</blockquote></p><p> So here is the trap – not only did gold prices decline by almost 5% last week, but interest rates shot up and the US dollar gained strength – all on the Fed<i>talking about tapering</i>and a forecast of a possible increase more than two years from now. Back to Powell’s press conference for his comments on tapering:</p><p><blockquote>所以陷阱就在这里——上周不仅金价下跌了近5%，而且利率飙升，美元走强——这一切都归咎于美联储<i>谈渐缩</i>并预测两年多后可能会增加。回到鲍威尔在新闻发布会上对tapering的评论：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… [As to when we might consider starting to reduce our asset purchases] you can think of this meeting that we had as</i>  <i><b>the talking about [tapering] meeting</b></i>  <i>…</i>    <i>… We don't think that we're in a situation [where we need to raise rates to control inflation]. We think that</i>  <i><b>the economy is recovering from a deep hole</b></i>  <i>, an unusual hole actually, because it's to do with shutting down the economy. It turns out it's a heck of a lot easier to create demand than it is to bring supply back up to snuff …</i>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec4fa685f7c5899a9b342d3532c07720\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"574\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e18dc5c6c4033c23e38c134098332cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"578\"></p><p><blockquote><i>……[关于我们何时可能考虑开始减少资产购买]你可以把我们召开的这次会议看作</i><i><b>谈论[缩减]会议</b></i><i>…</i><i>……我们不认为我们处于[需要加息来控制通胀]的境地。我们认为</i><i><b>经济正在从深渊中复苏</b></i><i>事实上，这是一个不寻常的漏洞，因为它与关闭经济有关。事实证明，创造需求比让供应恢复正常要容易得多……</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart</i></p><p><blockquote><i>美元指数(DXY)图表</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Threat of soaring debts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务飙升的威胁</b></blockquote></p><p> If the market reaction is this strong when the Fed only starts mentioning that it is talking about a plan to cut back on asset purchases. Moreover, that there might be an eventual interest rate increase more than two years from now. How do they actually get a plan implemented that doesn’t send the US economy into a downturn?</p><p><blockquote>如果美联储刚开始提及正在讨论削减资产购买计划时，市场反应就如此强烈。此外，两年多后最终可能会加息。他们如何真正实施一项不会让美国经济陷入衰退的计划？</blockquote></p><p> The US government added more than US$5 trillion in debt since the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic in March of 2020. Also, the baseline projection from the Congressional Budget Office is that the US federal budget deficit will average US$1.2 trillion per year over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来，美国政府增加了超过5万亿美元的债务。此外，国会预算办公室的基线预测是，未来十年美国联邦预算赤字平均每年将达到1.2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That’s right this is the baseline projection! It does not include any extra spending that the Biden Administration and Congress may pass (such as the currently debated infrastructure bill). US debt is now more than 100% of GDP. For every 1 percent increase in interest rates, more of the US government revenues are sucked up servicing its debt, which leaves less for other programs, which no politicians want!</p><p><blockquote>没错，这是基线投影！它不包括拜登政府和国会可能通过的任何额外支出（如目前正在争论的基建法案）。美国债务现在超过GDP的100%。利率每上升1%，就有更多的美国政府收入被用来偿还债务，留给其他项目的收入更少，这是任何政治家都不想要的！</blockquote></p><p> And if the US leads the way with interest rate increases this puts more upward pressure on the US dollar. Which is good for US consumers of imported goods, but not good for US exporting companies or their employees.</p><p><blockquote>如果美国率先加息，这将给美元带来更大的上行压力。这对进口商品的美国消费者有利，但对美国出口公司或其员工不利。</blockquote></p><p> Bottom line is that the Fed is going to stay behind the inflation curve and lower for longer is still the motto of the day. Higher inflation, low real-rates, and a lower dollar are all good for gold in the long-run!</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，美联储将落后于通胀曲线，并且在更长时间内保持较低水平仍然是当今的座右铭。从长远来看，通胀上升、实际利率下降和美元走低都对黄金有利！</blockquote></p><p> We turn back to Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference for the last word:</p><p><blockquote>我们回到鲍威尔主席在新闻发布会上的评论，了解最后一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <i>… the last thing to say is, the</i>  <i><b>dots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.</b></i>  <i>And that's because it's so highly uncertain …</i> </p><p><blockquote><i>……最后要说的是，</i><i><b>dots并不能很好地预测未来利率变动。</b></i><i>这是因为它非常不确定……</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-06-23/feds-inflation-gamble-continues\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-06-23/feds-inflation-gamble-continues","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159732624","content_text":"The fed's inflation gamble continues...\nAre central banks trapped?\nLast week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.\nThe fed's inflation gamble continues...\nAre central banks trapped?\nLast week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.\nGold Price Daily Chart\nFed on Economic Recovery\nThe Summary of Economic Projections (known as the dot-plots) released with the statement showed that committee members changed their median projection for the Fed Funds rate from its current rate of 0.1% to 0.6% by 2023 year-end – an increase of 0.5% or two rate increases more than two years from now.\nAnd these forecasted rate increases will only happen if inflation is well anchored above the 2% target and the Fed feels it has met its maximum employment part of the mandate. In response to a question in the press conference Chair Powell said:\n\n… the main message I would take away from the SEP is that many [FOMC] participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the Committee's forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated [i.e., labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment, inflation at 2 percent and on track to exceed 2 percent]. And that [is] a welcome development. If such outcomes materialize, it means the economy will have made faster progress toward our goals.\n\n\n …… the other thing I'll say is\nrate increases are really not at all the focus of the Committee.\nThe focus of the Committee is the current state of the economy. …\nwe're [still] very far from maximum employment,\nfor example. …\nthe near-term discussion that will begin is about the path of asset purchases\n… we [discussed] that today, and expect to continue in future meetings to think about our progress … Lift-off [a hike in the FF-rate] is well into the future …\n\nThe Fed has reason to be optimistic about the economy, as economic data, both anecdotal and official data releases have been stronger than expected.\nThe housing market in many parts of the country is red hot, employers are scrambling to find workers, retail sales have been strong, and inflation, even taking out the drop from last year has been somewhat elevated.\nAnd remember the Fed is adding US$80 billion in US Treasuries, and US$40 billion in mortgage-backed securities to its balance sheet each month – that’s $120 billion in extra liquidity flowing straight into already drunk markets.\nAssets on the Fed’s balance sheet hit over US$8 trillion last week – that is 36% of US GDP.\nSo here is the trap – not only did gold prices decline by almost 5% last week, but interest rates shot up and the US dollar gained strength – all on the Fedtalking about taperingand a forecast of a possible increase more than two years from now. Back to Powell’s press conference for his comments on tapering:\n\n… [As to when we might consider starting to reduce our asset purchases] you can think of this meeting that we had as\nthe talking about [tapering] meeting\n…\n\n\n… We don't think that we're in a situation [where we need to raise rates to control inflation]. We think that\nthe economy is recovering from a deep hole\n, an unusual hole actually, because it's to do with shutting down the economy. It turns out it's a heck of a lot easier to create demand than it is to bring supply back up to snuff …\n\n\nUS Dollar Index (DXY) Chart\nThreat of soaring debts\nIf the market reaction is this strong when the Fed only starts mentioning that it is talking about a plan to cut back on asset purchases. Moreover, that there might be an eventual interest rate increase more than two years from now. How do they actually get a plan implemented that doesn’t send the US economy into a downturn?\nThe US government added more than US$5 trillion in debt since the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic in March of 2020. Also, the baseline projection from the Congressional Budget Office is that the US federal budget deficit will average US$1.2 trillion per year over the next decade.\nThat’s right this is the baseline projection! It does not include any extra spending that the Biden Administration and Congress may pass (such as the currently debated infrastructure bill). US debt is now more than 100% of GDP. For every 1 percent increase in interest rates, more of the US government revenues are sucked up servicing its debt, which leaves less for other programs, which no politicians want!\nAnd if the US leads the way with interest rate increases this puts more upward pressure on the US dollar. Which is good for US consumers of imported goods, but not good for US exporting companies or their employees.\nBottom line is that the Fed is going to stay behind the inflation curve and lower for longer is still the motto of the day. Higher inflation, low real-rates, and a lower dollar are all good for gold in the long-run!\nWe turn back to Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference for the last word:\n\n… the last thing to say is, the\ndots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.\nAnd that's because it's so highly uncertain …","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}