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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Ook. Nice.
  Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider
  Summary Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for div
  Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider
  406 评论
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Why?😔
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  510 评论
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Nice nice....
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  540 1
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  . Nice
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  573 评论
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Buy buy buy
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  🙏🙏🙏
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  705 评论
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  ....... Hmmm
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-07-29
  $Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc.(BHR)$Mmm
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- Carsonchan86Carsonchan86
  ·2021-06-24
  👍
  The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues
  The fed's inflation gamble continues... Are central banks trapped? Last week’s Fed statement and the
  The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues
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Nice.&nbsp;","listText":"Ook. Nice.&nbsp;","text":"Ook. Nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808825764","repostId":"1141389413","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141389413","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627558905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1141389413?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 19:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141389413","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for div","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Amazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.</li>\n <li>Dividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.</li>\n <li>Amazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.</li>\n <li>Amazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/92fdb38b961293c938988e9eaeb7df1d\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>marekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.</p>\n<p><b>Does Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.</p>\n<p><b>Should Amazon Pay Dividends?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.</p>\n<p>I personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bb9d03526543be149e8628c2939208d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.</p>\n<p>The yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.</p>\n<p>Amazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.</p>\n<p>This does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.</p>\n<p>Amazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for&nbsp;$8.5 billion&nbsp;in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).</p>\n<p>Making these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.</p>\n<p>Amazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to&nbsp;possibly enter the robo-taxi market&nbsp;on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.</p>\n<p>It should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.</p>\n<p>Overall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.</p>\n<p><b>Create Your Own Income Using Options</b></p>\n<p>Amazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.</p>\n<p>If, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one&nbsp;call option contract&nbsp;with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.</p>\n<p>Using this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.</p>\n<p>The strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.</p>\n<p><b>Is Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>Amazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdf764ff4b0eca336f5b0f39fc149329\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>At 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated&nbsp;that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.</p>\n<p>Amazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.</p>\n<p>It is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill Amazon Stock Ever Pay Dividends? What To Consider\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-29 19:41 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.\nDividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442367-will-amazon-stock-ever-pay-dividends","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141389413","content_text":"Summary\n\nAmazon is growing fast and generating solid free cash flows, but those are not used for dividend payments for now.\nDividend payments would likely not impact total returns by a lot, and AMZN can use its cash flows for growth investments, which seems like the better idea for now.\nAmazon will eventually mature at some point, and it seems possible that it will follow Apple's strategy of returning cash to its owners at that point.\nAmazon is a great growth story, but its stock is also expensive. In the long run, returns should be solid, but will not be extremely high.\n\nmarekuliasz/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nAmazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) has been a great investment in the past, and thanks to strong growth rates and a long growth runway, it could be a solid investment in the future, too - despite a rather high valuation. Since some income investors do wonder whether Amazon will ever pay dividends, we will try to evaluate that question in this report, and show a way for AMZN shareholders to generate income from their investment right now.\nDoes Amazon Currently Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question, which is surprisingly brought up often, is a clear no. Amazon does not pay any dividends, has never paid any dividends, and there is no statement by executives that indicates that Amazon is about to pay dividends any time soon. AMZN, in its current state, is a pure capital appreciation play.\nShould Amazon Pay Dividends?\nThe answer to this question is not as easy, as this depends on your viewpoint. Some shareholders that own AMZN stock but that generally prefer to invest in income-producing equities would surely like to see dividend declarations by Amazon. On the other hand, growth investors will point to the fact that the dividend yield would be rather low anyway, and that Amazon could put its cash flows to use in other ways, e.g. by spending on growth capital expenditures, or by acquiring other companies. One can certainly make a case for growth companies such as Amazon to invest in their business in order to drive future growth, instead of paying dividends.\nI personally like to invest in income-producing stocks, but not solely, so I own a couple of capital appreciation plays as well, including Amazon. I do not think that dividend payments from Amazon would be a huge plus, as I think that Amazon is not the type of company that benefits a lot from paying out dividends. I also believe that dividends should only be paid out when a company has significant surplus cash flows, as paying dividends that are financed via debt is not creating value for shareholders. Looking at AMZN's cash flows, we see the following:\nData by YCharts\nThe company currently trades at an 83x free cash flow multiple, which pencils out to a 1.2% free cash flow yield. Paying out all cash flows in the form of dividends would not be advisable anyway, so if AMZN were to pay out 50% of its free cash flow, its dividend yield would be just 0.6%. This is, by far, not high enough to attract a large number of income investors to the stock, and it does not meaningfully impact total returns, either.\nThe yield would be significantly below what income investors get from the broad market (SPY), at 1.3%, or income-investor-friendly sectors such as real estate (VNQ) or utilities (XLU), at 3%, respectively. There would thus, I think, not be a clear benefit if Amazon started to make dividend payments. On the other hand, even a dividend that results in a paltry yield of just 0.6% would eat up more than $10 billion a year in cash, which would then not be available for investments.\nAmazon's core business is not of a high-margin nature, but the company has managed to expand its size by investing in additional high-value businesses, such as cloud computing. These investments would not be possible, or only at a smaller scale if Amazon would pay out billions a year in dividends. As long as Amazon's management team can identify ways to invest its cash profitably, that is likely the better choice for shareholder value creation.\nThis does not mean that things can't change over time, as Amazon will mature at some point, as so many other companies did. Apple (AAPL), for example, eventually started to make dividend payments when its cash flows grew so large that there was no way to reinvest them all profitably. The same could easily happen to AMZN at some point as well, but for now, this does not seem to be the case.\nAmazon has been investing money into a wide range of acquisitions over the years, such as Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (OTC:MGMB), which will be bought out for $8.5 billion in a deal that was announced two months ago. This move will boost AMZN's original content offerings and content creation abilities for its Prime Video segment, which should, in turn, help attract more users and which will make AMZN more competitive versus Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX).\nMaking these types of strategic acquisitions that have the goal of positioning the company for market share gains and future growth is likely more useful in the long run, compared to taking these billions and returning them to shareholders for a paltry yield of well below 1%. Last year's acquisition of autonomous vehicle tech company Zoox is another example of a takeover that fits well into Amazon's overall strategy.\nAmazon naturally would benefit a lot if it were able to roll out autonomous delivery vehicles at some point, as this could improve its cost profile and allow for even faster delivery times. Spending money to bolster AMZN's capabilities in this area makes sense, and it allows AMZN to possibly enter the robo-taxi market on top of that. Taking the $1.2 billion that AMZN paid for Zoox and paying them out to shareholders would have equated to an abysmally small yield of 0.07% -- in other words, shareholders would basically not have gotten anything out of that.\nIt should be noted that there is one possible benefit from introducing dividend payments. If AMZN started to make dividend payments today, even at a very low rate, it could start to build up a dividend growth track record, which could, at some point in the future, when growth has slowed down and payouts are growing, come in handy. Some investors are attracted to stocks that have raised their dividend by 10, 20, 25, or more years in a row, thus starting to build that track record today could have potential future benefits, although not in the near term.\nOverall, I think Amazon.com, Inc. shouldn't make dividend payments today, as growth should remain the priority for a company like AMZN. If Amazon planned to eventually become a regular dividend payer, it might make sense to introduce a very small dividend in order to build up a dividend growth track record.\nCreate Your Own Income Using Options\nAmazon's stock can be volatile, and that allows users to create income using option strategies such as selling covered calls.\nIf, for example, an investor owns 100 shares of Amazon and was to sell one call option contract with a strike price of $4,500 and an expiry date in January 2022, the investor would receive $46 per share, or $4,600 in total. Relative to a current investment value of $363,000 that equates to a cash on cash return of 1.3%. The same process could be done again half a year from now, which would then allow for an annual yield of around 2.6%.\nUsing this strategy, investors could thus create an income yield that is substantially higher than what one can get from the broad market today. The strategy has the downside of shares potentially getting called away, which limits the potential upside. If shares were to run above $4,500 by January, where they would then get called away, the upside would still be 24%, however.\nThe strategy also only works well if you own at least 100 shares of AMZN, which requires a huge portfolio size due to AMZN's high price per share. Nevertheless, this strategy could be of use for some investors that like to own Amazon, but that do want or need some income from their investments.\nIs Amazon A Buy Or Sell Now?\nAmazon.com, Inc. is, I believe, a quality company with a huge moat and a great growth outlook. It is well-positioned to capitalize on megatrends such as cloud computing, online shopping, and online advertisement. On the other hand, shares are pretty expensive, changing hands for valuations that are significantly higher than those of most other stocks:\nData by YCharts\nAt 66x this year's expected net profits, and at 50x next year's profits, AMZN is far from a bargain. It also is noteworthy that valuations have expanded over the last couple of months, shares were trading at 20% lower multiples in March. A couple of weeks ago,I estimated that AMZN could deliver high single-digit returns in the long run, which is not unattractive. But shares will, I believe, not generate the returns we have seen over the last couple of years in the future. AMZN is a quality pick, and returns in the 7%-8% a year range from a quality company are nothing to sneeze at, but AMZN is currently a little too expensive to warrant a strong buy rating.\nAmazon is closer to being a buy than a sell, however, I think, and in case valuations come back by a bit, it could be quite attractive - e.g. at the $3,000 it traded at in March. Whether Amazon is a good choice for your portfolio depends on your investment goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance, of course, but I believe that AMZN's shares are a solid hold, and a potential buy, for those that want to participate in one of the best growth stories one can invest in today.\nIt is, due to AMZN's high valuation, very much possible that shares will decline in the near or medium term, however. We have seen this from time to time in the past, thus it may be prudent to wait for an eventual pullback before entering or expanding a position if you want to maximize the chance for a more favorable entry price.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808822433,"gmtCreate":1627569752022,"gmtModify":1633758186383,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Why?😔","listText":"Why?😔","text":"Why?😔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808822433","repostId":"1110769108","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808823679,"gmtCreate":1627569556491,"gmtModify":1633758189508,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice nice....&nbsp;","listText":"Nice nice....&nbsp;","text":"Nice nice....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808823679","repostId":"2155003319","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":540,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808820735,"gmtCreate":1627569498327,"gmtModify":1633758190771,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":". Nice&nbsp;","listText":". Nice&nbsp;","text":". Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808820735","repostId":"1131907757","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808864711,"gmtCreate":1627569391133,"gmtModify":1633758192256,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy buy buy&nbsp;","listText":"Buy buy buy&nbsp;","text":"Buy buy buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808864711","repostId":"2155078999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":944,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808865812,"gmtCreate":1627569334336,"gmtModify":1633758193397,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙏🙏🙏","listText":"🙏🙏🙏","text":"🙏🙏🙏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808865812","repostId":"1174127311","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808862886,"gmtCreate":1627569292445,"gmtModify":1633758193945,"author":{"id":"3581845696257947","authorId":"3581845696257947","name":"Carsonchan86","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34c70c46b4a21994e74fb370cf1e418a","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581845696257947","authorIdStr":"3581845696257947"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"....... 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In response to a question in the press conference Chair Powell said:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>… the main message I would take away from the SEP is that many [FOMC] participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the Committee's forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated [i.e., labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment, inflation at 2 percent and on track to exceed 2 percent]. And that [is] a welcome development. If such outcomes materialize, it means the economy will have made faster progress toward our goals.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i> …… the other thing I'll say is</i>\n <i><b>rate increases are really not at all the focus of the Committee.</b></i>\n <i>The focus of the Committee is the current state of the economy. …</i>\n <i><b>we're [still] very far from maximum employment,</b></i>\n <i>for example. …</i>\n <i><b>the near-term discussion that will begin is about the path of asset purchases</b></i>\n <i>… we [discussed] that today, and expect to continue in future meetings to think about our progress … Lift-off [a hike in the FF-rate] is well into the future …</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>The Fed has reason to be optimistic about the economy, as economic data, both anecdotal and official data releases have been stronger than expected.</p>\n<p>The housing market in many parts of the country is red hot, employers are scrambling to find workers, retail sales have been strong, and inflation, even taking out the drop from last year has been somewhat elevated.</p>\n<p>And remember the Fed is adding US$80 billion in US Treasuries, and US$40 billion in mortgage-backed securities to its balance sheet each month – that’s $120 billion in extra liquidity flowing straight into already drunk markets.</p>\n<p>Assets on the Fed’s balance sheet hit over US$8 trillion last week – that is 36% of US GDP.</p>\n<p>So here is the trap – not only did gold prices decline by almost 5% last week, but interest rates shot up and the US dollar gained strength – all on the Fed<i>talking about tapering</i>and a forecast of a possible increase more than two years from now. Back to Powell’s press conference for his comments on tapering:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>… [As to when we might consider starting to reduce our asset purchases] you can think of this meeting that we had as</i>\n <i><b>the talking about [tapering] meeting</b></i>\n <i>…</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>… We don't think that we're in a situation [where we need to raise rates to control inflation]. We think that</i>\n <i><b>the economy is recovering from a deep hole</b></i>\n <i>, an unusual hole actually, because it's to do with shutting down the economy. It turns out it's a heck of a lot easier to create demand than it is to bring supply back up to snuff …</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec4fa685f7c5899a9b342d3532c07720\" tg-width=\"1006\" tg-height=\"574\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e18dc5c6c4033c23e38c134098332cb\" tg-width=\"1010\" tg-height=\"578\"></p>\n<p><i>US Dollar Index (DXY) Chart</i></p>\n<p><b>Threat of soaring debts</b></p>\n<p>If the market reaction is this strong when the Fed only starts mentioning that it is talking about a plan to cut back on asset purchases. Moreover, that there might be an eventual interest rate increase more than two years from now. How do they actually get a plan implemented that doesn’t send the US economy into a downturn?</p>\n<p>The US government added more than US$5 trillion in debt since the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic in March of 2020. Also, the baseline projection from the Congressional Budget Office is that the US federal budget deficit will average US$1.2 trillion per year over the next decade.</p>\n<p>That’s right this is the baseline projection! It does not include any extra spending that the Biden Administration and Congress may pass (such as the currently debated infrastructure bill). US debt is now more than 100% of GDP. For every 1 percent increase in interest rates, more of the US government revenues are sucked up servicing its debt, which leaves less for other programs, which no politicians want!</p>\n<p>And if the US leads the way with interest rate increases this puts more upward pressure on the US dollar. Which is good for US consumers of imported goods, but not good for US exporting companies or their employees.</p>\n<p>Bottom line is that the Fed is going to stay behind the inflation curve and lower for longer is still the motto of the day. Higher inflation, low real-rates, and a lower dollar are all good for gold in the long-run!</p>\n<p>We turn back to Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference for the last word:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>… the last thing to say is, the</i>\n <i><b>dots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.</b></i>\n <i>And that's because it's so highly uncertain …</i>\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed's Inflation Gamble Continues\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 16:24 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-06-23/feds-inflation-gamble-continues><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The fed's inflation gamble continues...\nAre central banks trapped?\nLast week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.\n...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-06-23/feds-inflation-gamble-continues\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2021-06-23/feds-inflation-gamble-continues","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159732624","content_text":"The fed's inflation gamble continues...\nAre central banks trapped?\nLast week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.\nThe fed's inflation gamble continues...\nAre central banks trapped?\nLast week’s Fed statement and the press conference that followed proved to be the start of a US$90 (4.8%) decline in the gold price.\nGold Price Daily Chart\nFed on Economic Recovery\nThe Summary of Economic Projections (known as the dot-plots) released with the statement showed that committee members changed their median projection for the Fed Funds rate from its current rate of 0.1% to 0.6% by 2023 year-end – an increase of 0.5% or two rate increases more than two years from now.\nAnd these forecasted rate increases will only happen if inflation is well anchored above the 2% target and the Fed feels it has met its maximum employment part of the mandate. In response to a question in the press conference Chair Powell said:\n\n… the main message I would take away from the SEP is that many [FOMC] participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions in the Committee's forward guidance will be met somewhat sooner than previously anticipated [i.e., labor market conditions consistent with maximum employment, inflation at 2 percent and on track to exceed 2 percent]. And that [is] a welcome development. If such outcomes materialize, it means the economy will have made faster progress toward our goals.\n\n\n …… the other thing I'll say is\nrate increases are really not at all the focus of the Committee.\nThe focus of the Committee is the current state of the economy. …\nwe're [still] very far from maximum employment,\nfor example. …\nthe near-term discussion that will begin is about the path of asset purchases\n… we [discussed] that today, and expect to continue in future meetings to think about our progress … Lift-off [a hike in the FF-rate] is well into the future …\n\nThe Fed has reason to be optimistic about the economy, as economic data, both anecdotal and official data releases have been stronger than expected.\nThe housing market in many parts of the country is red hot, employers are scrambling to find workers, retail sales have been strong, and inflation, even taking out the drop from last year has been somewhat elevated.\nAnd remember the Fed is adding US$80 billion in US Treasuries, and US$40 billion in mortgage-backed securities to its balance sheet each month – that’s $120 billion in extra liquidity flowing straight into already drunk markets.\nAssets on the Fed’s balance sheet hit over US$8 trillion last week – that is 36% of US GDP.\nSo here is the trap – not only did gold prices decline by almost 5% last week, but interest rates shot up and the US dollar gained strength – all on the Fedtalking about taperingand a forecast of a possible increase more than two years from now. Back to Powell’s press conference for his comments on tapering:\n\n… [As to when we might consider starting to reduce our asset purchases] you can think of this meeting that we had as\nthe talking about [tapering] meeting\n…\n\n\n… We don't think that we're in a situation [where we need to raise rates to control inflation]. We think that\nthe economy is recovering from a deep hole\n, an unusual hole actually, because it's to do with shutting down the economy. It turns out it's a heck of a lot easier to create demand than it is to bring supply back up to snuff …\n\n\nUS Dollar Index (DXY) Chart\nThreat of soaring debts\nIf the market reaction is this strong when the Fed only starts mentioning that it is talking about a plan to cut back on asset purchases. Moreover, that there might be an eventual interest rate increase more than two years from now. How do they actually get a plan implemented that doesn’t send the US economy into a downturn?\nThe US government added more than US$5 trillion in debt since the onset of the Covid-19 Pandemic in March of 2020. Also, the baseline projection from the Congressional Budget Office is that the US federal budget deficit will average US$1.2 trillion per year over the next decade.\nThat’s right this is the baseline projection! It does not include any extra spending that the Biden Administration and Congress may pass (such as the currently debated infrastructure bill). US debt is now more than 100% of GDP. For every 1 percent increase in interest rates, more of the US government revenues are sucked up servicing its debt, which leaves less for other programs, which no politicians want!\nAnd if the US leads the way with interest rate increases this puts more upward pressure on the US dollar. Which is good for US consumers of imported goods, but not good for US exporting companies or their employees.\nBottom line is that the Fed is going to stay behind the inflation curve and lower for longer is still the motto of the day. Higher inflation, low real-rates, and a lower dollar are all good for gold in the long-run!\nWe turn back to Chair Powell’s comments in the press conference for the last word:\n\n… the last thing to say is, the\ndots are not a great forecaster of future rate moves.\nAnd that's because it's so highly uncertain …","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}