社区
首页
集团介绍
社区
资讯
行情
学堂
TigerAI
登录
注册
immryan
IP属地：未知
+关注
帖子 · 24
帖子 · 24
关注 · 0
关注 · 0
粉丝 · 0
粉丝 · 0
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-24
Ok
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
1,728
回复
1
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-22
Good
Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>
The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs. ISTOCKPHOTO In the rolling correcti
Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>
看
2,695
回复
1
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-19
Good
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
2,920
回复
1
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-17
That is not good
Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales<blockquote>零售额降幅超预期后股市低开</blockquote>
(Aug 17) Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales. Dow industrials fall 291
Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales<blockquote>零售额降幅超预期后股市低开</blockquote>
看
1,056
回复
评论
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-16
Good
Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员权衡在2022年中期结束资产购买</blockquote>
Reducing bond buying sooner could provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stay
Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员权衡在2022年中期结束资产购买</blockquote>
看
2,340
回复
评论
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-16
Good!
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
2,536
回复
评论
点赞
3
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-12
Like !
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
2,527
回复
1
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-10
Good and like !
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
2,738
回复
评论
点赞
4
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-09
Like !
Morrisons suitor CD&R gets more time to trump $9.3 billion offer<blockquote>莫里森的收购者CD&R有更多时间击败93亿美元的报价</blockquote>
LONDON (Reuters) -Morrisons suitor, U.S. private equity group Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), has w
Morrisons suitor CD&R gets more time to trump $9.3 billion offer<blockquote>莫里森的收购者CD&R有更多时间击败93亿美元的报价</blockquote>
看
2,770
回复
2
点赞
2
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
immryan
immryan
·
2021-08-08
Good and like :)
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
看
2,981
回复
评论
点赞
5
编组 21备份 2
分享
举报
加载更多
热议股票
{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isCurrentUser":false,"userPageInfo":{"id":"3582024918476098","uuid":"3582024918476098","gmtCreate":1618932477186,"gmtModify":1618932477186,"name":"immryan","pinyin":"immryan","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":7,"headSize":1,"tweetSize":24,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-1","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"出道虎友","description":"加入老虎社区500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e4d0ca1da0456dc7894c946d44bf9ab","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f2f65e8ce4cfaae8db2bea9b127f58b","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5948a31b6edf154422335b265235809","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2022.09.17","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"page":1,"watchlist":null,"tweetList":[{"id":834270433,"gmtCreate":1629810577222,"gmtModify":1631891663461,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834270433","repostId":"1154386229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832955137,"gmtCreate":1629567453829,"gmtModify":1631891663465,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832955137","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOGL":"谷歌A","ON":"安森美半导体","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","SNPS":"新思科技","AAPL":"苹果","SSNLF":"三星电子","ASML":"阿斯麦","CDNS":"铿腾电子","TSM":"台积电","GOOG":"谷歌","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"ON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838036371,"gmtCreate":1629357279293,"gmtModify":1631891663468,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838036371","repostId":"1152703663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833136400,"gmtCreate":1629209562400,"gmtModify":1631891663472,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"That is not good","listText":"That is not good","text":"That is not good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833136400","repostId":"1146168029","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146168029","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629206834,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146168029?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 21:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales<blockquote>零售额降幅超预期后股市低开</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146168029","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 17) Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales.\nDow industrials fall 291","content":"<p>(Aug 17) Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>（8月17日）零售销售降幅大于预期后，股市开盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Dow industrials fall 291 points, or 0.8%. S&P 500 drops 0.7% to 4,448.21. Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% at 14,650.41.</p><p><blockquote>道指下跌291点，跌幅0.8%。标普500下跌0.7%，至4,448.21点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.9%，至14,650.41点。</blockquote></p><p> China tech stocks slump as China’s market regulator issued draft rules banning unfair competition among the nation’s online platform operators.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国市场监管机构发布禁止中国在线平台运营商之间不公平竞争的规则草案，中国科技股暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792e1772879dc34b07a1aad8629d5ca1\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Dow member Home Depot fell more than 4% after reporting second-quarter results, knocking futures. While quarterly earnings topped estimates, same-store sales rose 4.5% in the period, below the 5% consensus estimate of analysts polled by StreetAccount. U.S. same store sales increased by just 3.4%.</p><p><blockquote>道指成分股家得宝公布二季度业绩后跌超4%，打击期货。虽然季度收益超出预期，但同期同店销售额增长4.5%，低于StreetAccount调查的分析师5%的普遍预期。美国同店销售额仅增长3.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4c94ff0a55a39c655244dde44c44ae\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Walmart shares gained 0.27% after second-quarter earnings topped estimates. The retailer issued cautious guidance; the company said it will earn between $1.30 and $1.40 a share this quarter while the consensus analyst estimate is $1.32, according to StreetAccount.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛股价上涨0.零售商发布了谨慎的指引；根据StreetAccount的数据，该公司表示本季度每股收益将在1.30美元至1.40美元之间，而分析师普遍预期为1.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc921ddb3f633aa1f233242ac43da84c\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales<blockquote>零售额降幅超预期后股市低开</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales<blockquote>零售额降幅超预期后股市低开</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 21:27</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 17) Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales.</p><p><blockquote>（8月17日）零售销售降幅大于预期后，股市开盘走低。</blockquote></p><p> Dow industrials fall 291 points, or 0.8%. S&P 500 drops 0.7% to 4,448.21. Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% at 14,650.41.</p><p><blockquote>道指下跌291点，跌幅0.8%。标普500下跌0.7%，至4,448.21点。纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.9%，至14,650.41点。</blockquote></p><p> China tech stocks slump as China’s market regulator issued draft rules banning unfair competition among the nation’s online platform operators.</p><p><blockquote>随着中国市场监管机构发布禁止中国在线平台运营商之间不公平竞争的规则草案，中国科技股暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/792e1772879dc34b07a1aad8629d5ca1\" tg-width=\"375\" tg-height=\"853\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Dow member Home Depot fell more than 4% after reporting second-quarter results, knocking futures. While quarterly earnings topped estimates, same-store sales rose 4.5% in the period, below the 5% consensus estimate of analysts polled by StreetAccount. U.S. same store sales increased by just 3.4%.</p><p><blockquote>道指成分股家得宝公布二季度业绩后跌超4%，打击期货。虽然季度收益超出预期，但同期同店销售额增长4.5%，低于StreetAccount调查的分析师5%的普遍预期。美国同店销售额仅增长3.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e4c94ff0a55a39c655244dde44c44ae\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Walmart shares gained 0.27% after second-quarter earnings topped estimates. The retailer issued cautious guidance; the company said it will earn between $1.30 and $1.40 a share this quarter while the consensus analyst estimate is $1.32, according to StreetAccount.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛股价上涨0.零售商发布了谨慎的指引；根据StreetAccount的数据，该公司表示本季度每股收益将在1.30美元至1.40美元之间，而分析师普遍预期为1.32美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc921ddb3f633aa1f233242ac43da84c\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"653\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146168029","content_text":"(Aug 17) Stocks open lower after larger-than-expected drop in retail sales.\nDow industrials fall 291 points, or 0.8%. S&P 500 drops 0.7% to 4,448.21. Nasdaq Composite down 0.9% at 14,650.41.\nChina tech stocks slump as China’s market regulator issued draft rules banning unfair competition among the nation’s online platform operators.\nDow member Home Depot fell more than 4% after reporting second-quarter results, knocking futures. While quarterly earnings topped estimates, same-store sales rose 4.5% in the period, below the 5% consensus estimate of analysts polled by StreetAccount. U.S. same store sales increased by just 3.4%.\n\nWalmart shares gained 0.27% after second-quarter earnings topped estimates. The retailer issued cautious guidance; the company said it will earn between $1.30 and $1.40 a share this quarter while the consensus analyst estimate is $1.32, according to StreetAccount.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1056,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839390731,"gmtCreate":1629121217123,"gmtModify":1631891663475,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ","listText":"Good ","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839390731","repostId":"1165935172","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165935172","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629118103,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1165935172?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 20:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员权衡在2022年中期结束资产购买</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165935172","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Reducing bond buying sooner could provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stay","content":"<p> Reducing bond buying sooner could provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly. Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.</p><p><blockquote>如果通胀居高不下、失业率迅速下降，尽早减少债券购买可以为加息提供更大的灵活性。如果经济持续复苏，美联储官员接近同意在大约三个月内开始缩减宽松货币政策，一些人正在推动在明年年中结束资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的采访和公开声明中，一些人主张制定这一时间表，如果经济朝着他们的目标快速前进，这将使他们能够比目前预期的更早加息。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.</p><p><blockquote>央行去年12月表示，将继续目前的债券购买步伐，直到官员们得出结论，他们在实现2%平均通胀率和强劲就业的目标方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote></p><p> Officials at their July 27-28 meetingdeliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on Wednesday minutes of the meeting that could provide further clues about those discussions.</p><p><blockquote>官员们在7月27日至28日的会议上审议了两个重要问题：何时开始削减每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元抵押贷款证券的购买量，以及多快减少或缩减这些购买量。美联储将于周三发布会议纪要，可能会为这些讨论提供进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> The answers are important to financial markets because Fed officials have said they would prefer to conclude the bond-buying program before considering when to raise interest rates from near-zero. At their June 15-16 policy meeting, 13 of 18 Fed officials projected they would raise rates by the end of 2023; seven expected to do so by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这些答案对金融市场很重要，因为美联储官员曾表示，他们更愿意在考虑何时从接近零的利率上调之前结束债券购买计划。在6月15日至16日的政策会议上，18名美联储官员中有13名预计将在2023年底前加息；预计到2022年底将有7家这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 28 news conference that the Fed was still “a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔在7月28日的新闻发布会上表示，美联储“距离考虑加息还有很长的路要走。这不是我们现在关注的事情”。</blockquote></p><p> A recent run ofstrong hiring reportshave strengthened the case for the Fed to announce at its next meeting, Sept. 21-22, its intentions to start tapering, potentially as soon as its following meeting in November.</p><p><blockquote>最近一系列强劲的招聘报告增强了美联储在9月21日至22日的下一次会议上宣布开始缩减规模的意图的理由，可能最早在11月的下一次会议上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf5a9a0b2244055076f521102b5b4a\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“I do expect we are going to be at the point where we’ve seen substantial further progress…probably later this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in avirtual roundtable with reporterslast week.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥联储主席查尔斯·埃文斯上周在与记者举行的虚拟圆桌会议上表示：“我确实预计我们将看到实质性的进一步进展……可能是在今年晚些时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expected to see by the Sept. 21-22 meeting enough job growth to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases. “That would set up some time this fall a possible tapering that is dependent on the Delta variant and other variants not slowing down the labor market substantially,” he said in an interview last week. Mr. Rosengren said he hopes that if strong economic growth continues, “we’re done with the tapering program…towards the middle of next year.”</p><p><blockquote>波士顿联储主席Eric Rosengren在接受采访时表示，他预计到9月21日至22日将看到足够的就业增长，以满足减少债券购买的标准。他在上周接受采访时表示：“这将为今年秋季某个时候可能的缩减规模奠定基础，这取决于德尔塔变异毒株和其他不会大幅减缓劳动力市场的变量。”罗森格伦表示，他希望如果经济持续强劲增长，“我们将在明年年中完成缩减计划。”</blockquote></p><p> The Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But in December 2013, when it announced that it would soon start that process, the economy was weaker, with higher unemployment and low inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美联储非常缓慢地结束了之前的债券购买计划，在10个月内减少了购买量。但在2013年12月，当它宣布将很快启动这一进程时，经济更加疲软，失业率更高，通胀更低。</blockquote></p><p> Officials had another reason for caution back then because they were stunned by a surge in long-term Treasury yields, dubbed the “taper tantrum,” that occurred in the middle of 2013, after then-Chair Ben Bernanke suggested they might soon reduce their asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>官员们当时还有另一个谨慎的原因，因为他们对长期国债收益率飙升感到震惊，这被称为“缩减恐慌”，发生在2013年年中，当时的主席本·伯南克暗示他们可能很快就会减少资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed now finds itself in a very different position. The economy is growing rapidly. Unemployment is much lower, at 5.4% in July.Inflation is much hotter. And bond yields have tumbled this year even as the central bank has discussed plans to reduce bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储现在发现自己处于一个截然不同的境地。经济快速增长。7月份失业率要低得多，为5.4%。通货膨胀要高得多。尽管央行讨论了减少债券购买的计划，但债券收益率今年仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The asset purchases aim to stimulate the economy by holding down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending. Mr. Rosengren pointed to recentsurges in home pricesas evidence that the program may be nearing a point of diminishing returns. “If you can’t get housing materials and you can’t get construction workers to come back on site, but we do increase demand for housing, then it doesn’t do much for our employment mandate—but it does increase housing prices more than it otherwise would,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>资产购买旨在通过压低长期利率以刺激借贷和支出来刺激经济。罗森格伦先生指出，最近房价的飙升证明该计划可能接近回报递减点。“如果你无法获得住房材料，也无法让建筑工人回到现场，但我们确实增加了对住房的需求，那么这对我们的就业任务没有多大作用——但它确实会增加房价。否则，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan agreed. “These purchases are very well designed to stimulate demand, but we don’t have a demand problem,” he said in an interview. “In the aftermath of the Great Recession, we did. So I don’t want to use the playbook from 2009 to 2013.”</p><p><blockquote>达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰对此表示同意。他在接受采访时表示：“这些采购旨在刺激需求，但我们没有需求问题。”“在大衰退之后，我们做到了。所以我不想使用2009年至2013年的剧本。”</blockquote></p><p> Some other officials have argued for more patience. Fed governor Lael Brainard indicated last month she wanted to see September hiring data, which won’t be available until early October, before deciding. That would hold off any tapering until no sooner than the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting.</p><p><blockquote>其他一些官员主张要有更多的耐心。美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)上个月表示，她希望看到9月份的招聘数据，该数据要到10月初才能公布，然后再做出决定。这将使任何缩减购债规模推迟到美联储11月2日至3日的会议。</blockquote></p><p> San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview last week she thinks the economy should support “beginning to taper later this year, or maybe next.” Labor markets are “really strong—getting stronger,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利上周在接受采访时表示，她认为经济应该支持“今年晚些时候，或者明年开始缩减规模”。她说，劳动力市场“非常强劲——越来越强劲”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Ms. Daly said it was too soon to say how the Fed should reduce the purchases. “Those things haven’t been decided,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>戴利表示，现在说美联储应该如何减少购买还为时过早。“这些事情还没有决定，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Mr. Evans didn’t say how soon he thought the Fed would need to wind down its purchases. He expects inflation to fall back to 2% by the end of next year, which would argue for less urgency to withdraw monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>同样，埃文斯没有透露他认为美联储需要多快结束购买。他预计明年年底通胀率将回落至2%，这将证明撤回货币刺激措施的紧迫性降低。</blockquote></p><p> “My own outlook is, we’re gonna be more challenged in getting inflation to confidently stay up in the 2% or 2.1% or 2.2%” range, he said. “If others had more confidence that inflation was going to be higher on a sustainable basis, then that…quicker tapering could be the right path.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“我自己的前景是，我们将面临更大的挑战，让通胀率自信地保持在2%、2.1%或2.2%的范围内。”“如果其他人更有信心通胀将在可持续的基础上走高，那么……更快的缩减可能是正确的道路。”</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have yet to decidewhether to reduce their purchasesof Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the same pace.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员尚未决定是否以同样的速度减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Rosengren said he would prefer to reduce them monthly by equal quantities. Because the Fed is buying twice as many Treasurys as mortgage-backed securities, that would result in mortgage-bond purchases ending in half the time as Treasury purchases.</p><p><blockquote>罗森格伦先生说，他更愿意每月减少等量。由于美联储购买的国债数量是抵押贷款支持证券的两倍，这将导致抵押贷款债券购买结束的时间是国债购买的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Kaplan said he favors reducing the purchases of both types of bonds over the course of eight months, or by $10 billion for Treasurys and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities a month. “That strikes me as the most prudent course: start soon, and go gradually, and for me, gradually means eight months,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>卡普兰表示，他赞成在八个月内减少这两种债券的购买，即每月减少100亿美元的美国国债和50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。“在我看来，这是最谨慎的做法：尽快开始，然后逐步进行，对我来说，逐步意味着八个月，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to start paring assets in October and conclude the program by March, reducing the purchases of Treasurys by $20 billion a month and mortgage bonds by $10 billion a month. Fed governor Christopher Waller has outlined a similar preference.</p><p><blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，他希望从10月份开始削减资产，并在3月份结束该计划，每月减少200亿美元的美国国债购买量，每月减少100亿美元的抵押贷款债券购买量。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒也概述了类似的偏好。</blockquote></p><p> Even though “that would be a fairly rapid pullout of the asset-purchase program,” Mr. Bullard said in an interview last week that he thought it would give the Fed more flexibility to determine whether to raise rates later next year. “I don’t want to have to move too rapidly [to raise rates] because it can be very disruptive, so I think that the pace I’m suggesting would give us a lot more optionality in 2022 if we needed to use it.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管“这将是相当迅速地退出资产购买计划”，但布拉德在上周接受采访时表示，他认为这将使美联储在决定明年晚些时候是否加息方面具有更大的灵活性。“我不想（加息）行动太快，因为这可能具有很大的破坏性，所以我认为，如果我们需要使用它，我建议的步伐将在2022年为我们提供更多选择。”</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Kaplan said by reducing asset purchases sooner, the Fed might be able to wait longer before it has to raise interest rates. “By getting a more appropriate stance of monetary policy now or soon, it might actually allow you to be more flexible and be more patient on how you adjust the federal-funds rate down the road,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>卡普兰表示，通过更快地减少资产购买，美联储可能能够等待更长时间才能加息。他表示：“通过现在或很快采取更适当的货币政策立场，实际上可能会让你在未来如何调整联邦基金利率方面更加灵活、更加耐心。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员权衡在2022年中期结束资产购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Officials Weigh Ending Asset Purchases by Mid-2022<blockquote>美联储官员权衡在2022年中期结束资产购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-16 20:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> Reducing bond buying sooner could provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly. Federal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.</p><p><blockquote>如果通胀居高不下、失业率迅速下降，尽早减少债券购买可以为加息提供更大的灵活性。如果经济持续复苏，美联储官员接近同意在大约三个月内开始缩减宽松货币政策，一些人正在推动在明年年中结束资产购买计划。</blockquote></p><p> In recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的采访和公开声明中，一些人主张制定这一时间表，如果经济朝着他们的目标快速前进，这将使他们能够比目前预期的更早加息。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.</p><p><blockquote>央行去年12月表示，将继续目前的债券购买步伐，直到官员们得出结论，他们在实现2%平均通胀率和强劲就业的目标方面取得了“实质性的进一步进展”。</blockquote></p><p> Officials at their July 27-28 meetingdeliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on Wednesday minutes of the meeting that could provide further clues about those discussions.</p><p><blockquote>官员们在7月27日至28日的会议上审议了两个重要问题：何时开始削减每月800亿美元国债和400亿美元抵押贷款证券的购买量，以及多快减少或缩减这些购买量。美联储将于周三发布会议纪要，可能会为这些讨论提供进一步线索。</blockquote></p><p> The answers are important to financial markets because Fed officials have said they would prefer to conclude the bond-buying program before considering when to raise interest rates from near-zero. At their June 15-16 policy meeting, 13 of 18 Fed officials projected they would raise rates by the end of 2023; seven expected to do so by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这些答案对金融市场很重要，因为美联储官员曾表示，他们更愿意在考虑何时从接近零的利率上调之前结束债券购买计划。在6月15日至16日的政策会议上，18名美联储官员中有13名预计将在2023年底前加息；预计到2022年底将有7家这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 28 news conference that the Fed was still “a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席鲍威尔在7月28日的新闻发布会上表示，美联储“距离考虑加息还有很长的路要走。这不是我们现在关注的事情”。</blockquote></p><p> A recent run ofstrong hiring reportshave strengthened the case for the Fed to announce at its next meeting, Sept. 21-22, its intentions to start tapering, potentially as soon as its following meeting in November.</p><p><blockquote>最近一系列强劲的招聘报告增强了美联储在9月21日至22日的下一次会议上宣布开始缩减规模的意图的理由，可能最早在11月的下一次会议上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fcf5a9a0b2244055076f521102b5b4a\" tg-width=\"317\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">“I do expect we are going to be at the point where we’ve seen substantial further progress…probably later this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in avirtual roundtable with reporterslast week.</p><p><blockquote>芝加哥联储主席查尔斯·埃文斯上周在与记者举行的虚拟圆桌会议上表示：“我确实预计我们将看到实质性的进一步进展……可能是在今年晚些时候。”</blockquote></p><p> Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expected to see by the Sept. 21-22 meeting enough job growth to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases. “That would set up some time this fall a possible tapering that is dependent on the Delta variant and other variants not slowing down the labor market substantially,” he said in an interview last week. Mr. Rosengren said he hopes that if strong economic growth continues, “we’re done with the tapering program…towards the middle of next year.”</p><p><blockquote>波士顿联储主席Eric Rosengren在接受采访时表示，他预计到9月21日至22日将看到足够的就业增长，以满足减少债券购买的标准。他在上周接受采访时表示：“这将为今年秋季某个时候可能的缩减规模奠定基础，这取决于德尔塔变异毒株和其他不会大幅减缓劳动力市场的变量。”罗森格伦表示，他希望如果经济持续强劲增长，“我们将在明年年中完成缩减计划。”</blockquote></p><p> The Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But in December 2013, when it announced that it would soon start that process, the economy was weaker, with higher unemployment and low inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美联储非常缓慢地结束了之前的债券购买计划，在10个月内减少了购买量。但在2013年12月，当它宣布将很快启动这一进程时，经济更加疲软，失业率更高，通胀更低。</blockquote></p><p> Officials had another reason for caution back then because they were stunned by a surge in long-term Treasury yields, dubbed the “taper tantrum,” that occurred in the middle of 2013, after then-Chair Ben Bernanke suggested they might soon reduce their asset purchases.</p><p><blockquote>官员们当时还有另一个谨慎的原因，因为他们对长期国债收益率飙升感到震惊，这被称为“缩减恐慌”，发生在2013年年中，当时的主席本·伯南克暗示他们可能很快就会减少资产购买。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed now finds itself in a very different position. The economy is growing rapidly. Unemployment is much lower, at 5.4% in July.Inflation is much hotter. And bond yields have tumbled this year even as the central bank has discussed plans to reduce bond purchases.</p><p><blockquote>美联储现在发现自己处于一个截然不同的境地。经济快速增长。7月份失业率要低得多，为5.4%。通货膨胀要高得多。尽管央行讨论了减少债券购买的计划，但债券收益率今年仍大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The asset purchases aim to stimulate the economy by holding down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending. Mr. Rosengren pointed to recentsurges in home pricesas evidence that the program may be nearing a point of diminishing returns. “If you can’t get housing materials and you can’t get construction workers to come back on site, but we do increase demand for housing, then it doesn’t do much for our employment mandate—but it does increase housing prices more than it otherwise would,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>资产购买旨在通过压低长期利率以刺激借贷和支出来刺激经济。罗森格伦先生指出，最近房价的飙升证明该计划可能接近回报递减点。“如果你无法获得住房材料，也无法让建筑工人回到现场，但我们确实增加了对住房的需求，那么这对我们的就业任务没有多大作用——但它确实会增加房价。否则，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan agreed. “These purchases are very well designed to stimulate demand, but we don’t have a demand problem,” he said in an interview. “In the aftermath of the Great Recession, we did. So I don’t want to use the playbook from 2009 to 2013.”</p><p><blockquote>达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰对此表示同意。他在接受采访时表示：“这些采购旨在刺激需求，但我们没有需求问题。”“在大衰退之后，我们做到了。所以我不想使用2009年至2013年的剧本。”</blockquote></p><p> Some other officials have argued for more patience. Fed governor Lael Brainard indicated last month she wanted to see September hiring data, which won’t be available until early October, before deciding. That would hold off any tapering until no sooner than the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting.</p><p><blockquote>其他一些官员主张要有更多的耐心。美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)上个月表示，她希望看到9月份的招聘数据，该数据要到10月初才能公布，然后再做出决定。这将使任何缩减购债规模推迟到美联储11月2日至3日的会议。</blockquote></p><p> San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview last week she thinks the economy should support “beginning to taper later this year, or maybe next.” Labor markets are “really strong—getting stronger,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利上周在接受采访时表示，她认为经济应该支持“今年晚些时候，或者明年开始缩减规模”。她说，劳动力市场“非常强劲——越来越强劲”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Ms. Daly said it was too soon to say how the Fed should reduce the purchases. “Those things haven’t been decided,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>戴利表示，现在说美联储应该如何减少购买还为时过早。“这些事情还没有决定，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, Mr. Evans didn’t say how soon he thought the Fed would need to wind down its purchases. He expects inflation to fall back to 2% by the end of next year, which would argue for less urgency to withdraw monetary stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>同样，埃文斯没有透露他认为美联储需要多快结束购买。他预计明年年底通胀率将回落至2%，这将证明撤回货币刺激措施的紧迫性降低。</blockquote></p><p> “My own outlook is, we’re gonna be more challenged in getting inflation to confidently stay up in the 2% or 2.1% or 2.2%” range, he said. “If others had more confidence that inflation was going to be higher on a sustainable basis, then that…quicker tapering could be the right path.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“我自己的前景是，我们将面临更大的挑战，让通胀率自信地保持在2%、2.1%或2.2%的范围内。”“如果其他人更有信心通胀将在可持续的基础上走高，那么……更快的缩减可能是正确的道路。”</blockquote></p><p> Fed officials have yet to decidewhether to reduce their purchasesof Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the same pace.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员尚未决定是否以同样的速度减少美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Rosengren said he would prefer to reduce them monthly by equal quantities. Because the Fed is buying twice as many Treasurys as mortgage-backed securities, that would result in mortgage-bond purchases ending in half the time as Treasury purchases.</p><p><blockquote>罗森格伦先生说，他更愿意每月减少等量。由于美联储购买的国债数量是抵押贷款支持证券的两倍，这将导致抵押贷款债券购买结束的时间是国债购买的一半。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Kaplan said he favors reducing the purchases of both types of bonds over the course of eight months, or by $10 billion for Treasurys and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities a month. “That strikes me as the most prudent course: start soon, and go gradually, and for me, gradually means eight months,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>卡普兰表示，他赞成在八个月内减少这两种债券的购买，即每月减少100亿美元的美国国债和50亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。“在我看来，这是最谨慎的做法：尽快开始，然后逐步进行，对我来说，逐步意味着八个月，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to start paring assets in October and conclude the program by March, reducing the purchases of Treasurys by $20 billion a month and mortgage bonds by $10 billion a month. Fed governor Christopher Waller has outlined a similar preference.</p><p><blockquote>圣路易斯联储主席布拉德表示，他希望从10月份开始削减资产，并在3月份结束该计划，每月减少200亿美元的美国国债购买量，每月减少100亿美元的抵押贷款债券购买量。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒也概述了类似的偏好。</blockquote></p><p> Even though “that would be a fairly rapid pullout of the asset-purchase program,” Mr. Bullard said in an interview last week that he thought it would give the Fed more flexibility to determine whether to raise rates later next year. “I don’t want to have to move too rapidly [to raise rates] because it can be very disruptive, so I think that the pace I’m suggesting would give us a lot more optionality in 2022 if we needed to use it.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管“这将是相当迅速地退出资产购买计划”，但布拉德在上周接受采访时表示，他认为这将使美联储在决定明年晚些时候是否加息方面具有更大的灵活性。“我不想（加息）行动太快，因为这可能具有很大的破坏性，所以我认为，如果我们需要使用它，我建议的步伐将在2022年为我们提供更多选择。”</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Kaplan said by reducing asset purchases sooner, the Fed might be able to wait longer before it has to raise interest rates. “By getting a more appropriate stance of monetary policy now or soon, it might actually allow you to be more flexible and be more patient on how you adjust the federal-funds rate down the road,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>卡普兰表示，通过更快地减少资产购买，美联储可能能够等待更长时间才能加息。他表示：“通过现在或很快采取更适当的货币政策立场，实际上可能会让你在未来如何调整联邦基金利率方面更加灵活、更加耐心。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-ending-asset-purchases-by-mid-2022-11629106200\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-officials-weigh-ending-asset-purchases-by-mid-2022-11629106200","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165935172","content_text":"Reducing bond buying sooner could provide more flexibility to raise interest rates if inflation stays high and unemployment falls rapidly.\n\nFederal Reserve officials are nearing agreement to begin scaling back their easy money policies in about three months if the economic recovery continues, with some pushing to end their asset-purchase program by the middle of next year.\nIn recent interviews and public statements, several have advocated for this timetable, which would enable them to raise interest rates sooner than currently anticipated if the economy makes rapid progress toward their goals.\nThe central bank last December said it would continue the current pace of bond purchases until officials concluded they had achieved “substantial further progress” toward their goals of 2% average inflation and robust employment.\nOfficials at their July 27-28 meetingdeliberated on two important questions: when to start paring their monthly purchases of $80 billion in Treasury securities and $40 billion in mortgage securities, and how quickly to reduce, or taper, them. The Fed is set to release on Wednesday minutes of the meeting that could provide further clues about those discussions.\nThe answers are important to financial markets because Fed officials have said they would prefer to conclude the bond-buying program before considering when to raise interest rates from near-zero. At their June 15-16 policy meeting, 13 of 18 Fed officials projected they would raise rates by the end of 2023; seven expected to do so by the end of 2022.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell said at a July 28 news conference that the Fed was still “a ways away from considering raising interest rates. It’s not something that is on our radar screen right now.”\nA recent run ofstrong hiring reportshave strengthened the case for the Fed to announce at its next meeting, Sept. 21-22, its intentions to start tapering, potentially as soon as its following meeting in November.\n“I do expect we are going to be at the point where we’ve seen substantial further progress…probably later this year,” said Chicago Fed President Charles Evans in avirtual roundtable with reporterslast week.\nBoston Fed President Eric Rosengren said in an interview he expected to see by the Sept. 21-22 meeting enough job growth to meet the criteria for reducing bond purchases. “That would set up some time this fall a possible tapering that is dependent on the Delta variant and other variants not slowing down the labor market substantially,” he said in an interview last week. Mr. Rosengren said he hopes that if strong economic growth continues, “we’re done with the tapering program…towards the middle of next year.”\nThe Fed wound down its previous bond-buying program very gradually, reducing its purchases over the course of 10 months. But in December 2013, when it announced that it would soon start that process, the economy was weaker, with higher unemployment and low inflation.\nOfficials had another reason for caution back then because they were stunned by a surge in long-term Treasury yields, dubbed the “taper tantrum,” that occurred in the middle of 2013, after then-Chair Ben Bernanke suggested they might soon reduce their asset purchases.\nThe Fed now finds itself in a very different position. The economy is growing rapidly. Unemployment is much lower, at 5.4% in July.Inflation is much hotter. And bond yields have tumbled this year even as the central bank has discussed plans to reduce bond purchases.\nThe asset purchases aim to stimulate the economy by holding down long-term interest rates to spur borrowing and spending. Mr. Rosengren pointed to recentsurges in home pricesas evidence that the program may be nearing a point of diminishing returns. “If you can’t get housing materials and you can’t get construction workers to come back on site, but we do increase demand for housing, then it doesn’t do much for our employment mandate—but it does increase housing prices more than it otherwise would,” he said.\nDallas Fed President Robert Kaplan agreed. “These purchases are very well designed to stimulate demand, but we don’t have a demand problem,” he said in an interview. “In the aftermath of the Great Recession, we did. So I don’t want to use the playbook from 2009 to 2013.”\nSome other officials have argued for more patience. Fed governor Lael Brainard indicated last month she wanted to see September hiring data, which won’t be available until early October, before deciding. That would hold off any tapering until no sooner than the Fed’s Nov. 2-3 meeting.\nSan Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview last week she thinks the economy should support “beginning to taper later this year, or maybe next.” Labor markets are “really strong—getting stronger,” she said.\nMs. Daly said it was too soon to say how the Fed should reduce the purchases. “Those things haven’t been decided,” she said.\nLikewise, Mr. Evans didn’t say how soon he thought the Fed would need to wind down its purchases. He expects inflation to fall back to 2% by the end of next year, which would argue for less urgency to withdraw monetary stimulus.\n“My own outlook is, we’re gonna be more challenged in getting inflation to confidently stay up in the 2% or 2.1% or 2.2%” range, he said. “If others had more confidence that inflation was going to be higher on a sustainable basis, then that…quicker tapering could be the right path.”\nFed officials have yet to decidewhether to reduce their purchasesof Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at the same pace.\nMr. Rosengren said he would prefer to reduce them monthly by equal quantities. Because the Fed is buying twice as many Treasurys as mortgage-backed securities, that would result in mortgage-bond purchases ending in half the time as Treasury purchases.\nMr. Kaplan said he favors reducing the purchases of both types of bonds over the course of eight months, or by $10 billion for Treasurys and $5 billion for mortgage-backed securities a month. “That strikes me as the most prudent course: start soon, and go gradually, and for me, gradually means eight months,” he said.\nSt. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he wants to start paring assets in October and conclude the program by March, reducing the purchases of Treasurys by $20 billion a month and mortgage bonds by $10 billion a month. Fed governor Christopher Waller has outlined a similar preference.\nEven though “that would be a fairly rapid pullout of the asset-purchase program,” Mr. Bullard said in an interview last week that he thought it would give the Fed more flexibility to determine whether to raise rates later next year. “I don’t want to have to move too rapidly [to raise rates] because it can be very disruptive, so I think that the pace I’m suggesting would give us a lot more optionality in 2022 if we needed to use it.”\nMr. Kaplan said by reducing asset purchases sooner, the Fed might be able to wait longer before it has to raise interest rates. “By getting a more appropriate stance of monetary policy now or soon, it might actually allow you to be more flexible and be more patient on how you adjust the federal-funds rate down the road,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830880403,"gmtCreate":1629044252702,"gmtModify":1631891663477,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good!","listText":"Good!","text":"Good!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830880403","repostId":"2159145532","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2536,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894962291,"gmtCreate":1628783328113,"gmtModify":1631891663479,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like !","listText":"Like !","text":"Like !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894962291","repostId":"2158189268","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896127739,"gmtCreate":1628563032521,"gmtModify":1631891663481,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good and like !","listText":"Good and like !","text":"Good and like !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896127739","repostId":"1122543075","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898539550,"gmtCreate":1628508286570,"gmtModify":1631891663486,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like !","listText":"Like !","text":"Like !","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898539550","repostId":"1122403360","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122403360","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628507058,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122403360?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-09 19:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morrisons suitor CD&R gets more time to trump $9.3 billion offer<blockquote>莫里森的收购者CD&R有更多时间击败93亿美元的报价</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122403360","media":"Reuters","summary":"LONDON (Reuters) -Morrisons suitor, U.S. private equity group Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), has w","content":"<p>LONDON (Reuters) -Morrisons suitor, U.S. private equity group Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), has won more time to consider a counter bid to Fortress’ agreed 6.7 billion pounds ($9.3 billion) offer for the British supermarket group.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-莫里森的收购者、美国私募股权集团Clayton，Dubilier&Rice(CD&R)赢得了更多时间来考虑对Fortress同意的67亿英镑（93亿美元）收购这家英国超市集团的还价。</blockquote></p><p> Britain’s Takeover Panel, which regulates corporate takeovers, said on Monday CD&R would have until Aug. 20 to announce a firm intention to make a new offer or walk away, a so-called “put-up or shut-up” order, extending a previous Aug. 9 deadline.</p><p><blockquote>负责监管企业收购的英国收购委员会周一表示，CD&R必须在8月20日之前宣布提出新要约或退出的坚定意图，即所谓的“提出或闭嘴”命令，延长之前的8月9日截止日期。</blockquote></p><p> The battle for Britain’s fourth-largest grocer after Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda, is the most high-profile looming takeover in the country amid a raft of bids and counter bids, reflecting private equity’s appetite for UK Plc.</p><p><blockquote>继特易购(Tesco)、塞恩斯伯里(Sainsbury's)和阿斯达(Asda)之后，英国第四大杂货商的争夺战是该国在大量收购和还价中最引人注目的迫在眉睫的收购，反映了私募股权对英国公司的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Morrisons on Friday approved the raised 272 pence a share offer from the consortium led by Softbank owned Fortress Investment Group - a 52% premium to its share price before takeover interest emerged.</p><p><blockquote>莫里森周五批准了软银旗下Fortress Investment Group牵头的财团提出的每股272便士的要约，较收购兴趣出现前的股价溢价52%。</blockquote></p><p> The retailer had requested the Takeover Panel set a revised deadline for CD&R.</p><p><blockquote>该零售商已要求收购小组为CD&R设定修订后的最后期限。</blockquote></p><p> On Friday, Morrisons also adjourned from Aug. 16 to Aug. 27 the shareholder meeting to vote on the Fortress offer. To pass, it would need the support of shareholders representing at least 75% in value of voting investors at the meeting.</p><p><blockquote>周五，莫里森还将股东大会从8月16日推迟至8月27日，以就Fortress收购要约进行投票。要通过，它需要代表会议上投票投资者价值至少75%的股东的支持。</blockquote></p><p> Shares in Morrisons were trading at nearly 279 pence on Monday - above Fortress’ new offer, indicating investors expect a higher bid.</p><p><blockquote>周一，莫里森的股价交易价格接近279便士，高于Fortress的新报价，表明投资者预计出价会更高。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have also speculated that U.S. giant Amazon, which has a partnership deal with Morrisons, could still enter the fray.</p><p><blockquote>分析师还猜测，与莫里森达成合作协议的美国巨头亚马逊仍可能加入竞争。</blockquote></p><p> SYNERGIES</p><p><blockquote>协同作用</blockquote></p><p> CD&R, which has former Tesco boss Terry Leahy as a senior adviser, had a 230 pence a share proposal worth 5.52 billion pounds rejected by Morrisons on June 17.</p><p><blockquote>CD&R的高级顾问是Tesco前老板Terry Leahy，该公司提出的每股230便士、价值55.2亿英镑的提议于6月17日被莫里森拒绝。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Morrisons’ board agreed to Fortress’ 254 pence a share offer worth 6.3 billion pounds but major Morrisons investors Silchester, M&G and JO Hambro all indicated it was too low.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，莫里森董事会同意了Fortress每股254便士、价值63亿英镑的报价，但莫里森的主要投资者Silchester、M&G和JO Hambro都表示这一报价太低。</blockquote></p><p> Fortress, which bought British wine seller Majestic Wine in 2019, has said it “remains committed to becoming the new owner of Morrisons.”</p><p><blockquote>Fortress于2019年收购了英国葡萄酒销售商Majestic Wine，并表示“仍然致力于成为Morrisons的新所有者”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fortress consortium, which also includes Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Koch Real Estate Investments and Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC, has given assurances that it would retain Morrisons’ headquarters in Bradford, northern England, and its existing management team led by Chief Executive David Potts, and execute its existing strategy. Material store sale and leaseback transactions are not planned.</p><p><blockquote>Fortress财团还包括加拿大养老金计划投资委员会、科赫房地产投资公司和新加坡主权财富基金GIC，该财团已保证将保留莫里森位于英格兰北部布拉德福德的总部及其由首席执行官David Potts领导的现有管理团队，并执行其现有战略。材料商店出售和回租交易没有计划。</blockquote></p><p> People with knowledge of the situation have said CD&R would also be able to tick those boxes to secure a recommendation from Morrisons’ board.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，CD&R也能够勾选这些框，以获得莫里森董事会的推荐。</blockquote></p><p> They said CD&R, whose track record includes investment in UK discount retailer B&M, was likely to stress the greater synergies they would get from a deal, given its existing ownership of the Motor Fuel Group petrol forecourt chain.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，CD&R的业绩记录包括对英国折扣零售商B&M的投资，鉴于其现有对汽车燃料集团petrol forecourt chain的所有权，CD&R可能会强调他们将从交易中获得更大的协同效应。</blockquote></p><p> However, some analysts have argued that a higher bid makes asset sales more likely.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一些分析师认为，更高的出价会使资产出售的可能性更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morrisons suitor CD&R gets more time to trump $9.3 billion offer<blockquote>莫里森的收购者CD&R有更多时间击败93亿美元的报价</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorrisons suitor CD&R gets more time to trump $9.3 billion offer<blockquote>莫里森的收购者CD&R有更多时间击败93亿美元的报价</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-09 19:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>LONDON (Reuters) -Morrisons suitor, U.S. private equity group Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), has won more time to consider a counter bid to Fortress’ agreed 6.7 billion pounds ($9.3 billion) offer for the British supermarket group.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-莫里森的收购者、美国私募股权集团Clayton，Dubilier&Rice(CD&R)赢得了更多时间来考虑对Fortress同意的67亿英镑（93亿美元）收购这家英国超市集团的还价。</blockquote></p><p> Britain’s Takeover Panel, which regulates corporate takeovers, said on Monday CD&R would have until Aug. 20 to announce a firm intention to make a new offer or walk away, a so-called “put-up or shut-up” order, extending a previous Aug. 9 deadline.</p><p><blockquote>负责监管企业收购的英国收购委员会周一表示，CD&R必须在8月20日之前宣布提出新要约或退出的坚定意图，即所谓的“提出或闭嘴”命令，延长之前的8月9日截止日期。</blockquote></p><p> The battle for Britain’s fourth-largest grocer after Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda, is the most high-profile looming takeover in the country amid a raft of bids and counter bids, reflecting private equity’s appetite for UK Plc.</p><p><blockquote>继特易购(Tesco)、塞恩斯伯里(Sainsbury's)和阿斯达(Asda)之后，英国第四大杂货商的争夺战是该国在大量收购和还价中最引人注目的迫在眉睫的收购，反映了私募股权对英国公司的兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> Morrisons on Friday approved the raised 272 pence a share offer from the consortium led by Softbank owned Fortress Investment Group - a 52% premium to its share price before takeover interest emerged.</p><p><blockquote>莫里森周五批准了软银旗下Fortress Investment Group牵头的财团提出的每股272便士的要约，较收购兴趣出现前的股价溢价52%。</blockquote></p><p> The retailer had requested the Takeover Panel set a revised deadline for CD&R.</p><p><blockquote>该零售商已要求收购小组为CD&R设定修订后的最后期限。</blockquote></p><p> On Friday, Morrisons also adjourned from Aug. 16 to Aug. 27 the shareholder meeting to vote on the Fortress offer. To pass, it would need the support of shareholders representing at least 75% in value of voting investors at the meeting.</p><p><blockquote>周五，莫里森还将股东大会从8月16日推迟至8月27日，以就Fortress收购要约进行投票。要通过，它需要代表会议上投票投资者价值至少75%的股东的支持。</blockquote></p><p> Shares in Morrisons were trading at nearly 279 pence on Monday - above Fortress’ new offer, indicating investors expect a higher bid.</p><p><blockquote>周一，莫里森的股价交易价格接近279便士，高于Fortress的新报价，表明投资者预计出价会更高。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts have also speculated that U.S. giant Amazon, which has a partnership deal with Morrisons, could still enter the fray.</p><p><blockquote>分析师还猜测，与莫里森达成合作协议的美国巨头亚马逊仍可能加入竞争。</blockquote></p><p> SYNERGIES</p><p><blockquote>协同作用</blockquote></p><p> CD&R, which has former Tesco boss Terry Leahy as a senior adviser, had a 230 pence a share proposal worth 5.52 billion pounds rejected by Morrisons on June 17.</p><p><blockquote>CD&R的高级顾问是Tesco前老板Terry Leahy，该公司提出的每股230便士、价值55.2亿英镑的提议于6月17日被莫里森拒绝。</blockquote></p><p> Last month, Morrisons’ board agreed to Fortress’ 254 pence a share offer worth 6.3 billion pounds but major Morrisons investors Silchester, M&G and JO Hambro all indicated it was too low.</p><p><blockquote>上个月，莫里森董事会同意了Fortress每股254便士、价值63亿英镑的报价，但莫里森的主要投资者Silchester、M&G和JO Hambro都表示这一报价太低。</blockquote></p><p> Fortress, which bought British wine seller Majestic Wine in 2019, has said it “remains committed to becoming the new owner of Morrisons.”</p><p><blockquote>Fortress于2019年收购了英国葡萄酒销售商Majestic Wine，并表示“仍然致力于成为Morrisons的新所有者”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fortress consortium, which also includes Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Koch Real Estate Investments and Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC, has given assurances that it would retain Morrisons’ headquarters in Bradford, northern England, and its existing management team led by Chief Executive David Potts, and execute its existing strategy. Material store sale and leaseback transactions are not planned.</p><p><blockquote>Fortress财团还包括加拿大养老金计划投资委员会、科赫房地产投资公司和新加坡主权财富基金GIC，该财团已保证将保留莫里森位于英格兰北部布拉德福德的总部及其由首席执行官David Potts领导的现有管理团队，并执行其现有战略。材料商店出售和回租交易没有计划。</blockquote></p><p> People with knowledge of the situation have said CD&R would also be able to tick those boxes to secure a recommendation from Morrisons’ board.</p><p><blockquote>知情人士表示，CD&R也能够勾选这些框，以获得莫里森董事会的推荐。</blockquote></p><p> They said CD&R, whose track record includes investment in UK discount retailer B&M, was likely to stress the greater synergies they would get from a deal, given its existing ownership of the Motor Fuel Group petrol forecourt chain.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，CD&R的业绩记录包括对英国折扣零售商B&M的投资，鉴于其现有对汽车燃料集团petrol forecourt chain的所有权，CD&R可能会强调他们将从交易中获得更大的协同效应。</blockquote></p><p> However, some analysts have argued that a higher bid makes asset sales more likely.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一些分析师认为，更高的出价会使资产出售的可能性更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/morrisons-ma-cdr/update-3-morrisons-suitor-cdr-gets-more-time-to-trump-9-3-bln-offer-idUSL8N2PG0X7\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRWSF":"WM Morrison Supermarkets Plc."},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/morrisons-ma-cdr/update-3-morrisons-suitor-cdr-gets-more-time-to-trump-9-3-bln-offer-idUSL8N2PG0X7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122403360","content_text":"LONDON (Reuters) -Morrisons suitor, U.S. private equity group Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R), has won more time to consider a counter bid to Fortress’ agreed 6.7 billion pounds ($9.3 billion) offer for the British supermarket group.\nBritain’s Takeover Panel, which regulates corporate takeovers, said on Monday CD&R would have until Aug. 20 to announce a firm intention to make a new offer or walk away, a so-called “put-up or shut-up” order, extending a previous Aug. 9 deadline.\nThe battle for Britain’s fourth-largest grocer after Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda, is the most high-profile looming takeover in the country amid a raft of bids and counter bids, reflecting private equity’s appetite for UK Plc.\nMorrisons on Friday approved the raised 272 pence a share offer from the consortium led by Softbank owned Fortress Investment Group - a 52% premium to its share price before takeover interest emerged.\nThe retailer had requested the Takeover Panel set a revised deadline for CD&R.\nOn Friday, Morrisons also adjourned from Aug. 16 to Aug. 27 the shareholder meeting to vote on the Fortress offer. To pass, it would need the support of shareholders representing at least 75% in value of voting investors at the meeting.\nShares in Morrisons were trading at nearly 279 pence on Monday - above Fortress’ new offer, indicating investors expect a higher bid.\nAnalysts have also speculated that U.S. giant Amazon, which has a partnership deal with Morrisons, could still enter the fray.\nSYNERGIES\nCD&R, which has former Tesco boss Terry Leahy as a senior adviser, had a 230 pence a share proposal worth 5.52 billion pounds rejected by Morrisons on June 17.\nLast month, Morrisons’ board agreed to Fortress’ 254 pence a share offer worth 6.3 billion pounds but major Morrisons investors Silchester, M&G and JO Hambro all indicated it was too low.\nFortress, which bought British wine seller Majestic Wine in 2019, has said it “remains committed to becoming the new owner of Morrisons.”\nThe Fortress consortium, which also includes Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Koch Real Estate Investments and Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund GIC, has given assurances that it would retain Morrisons’ headquarters in Bradford, northern England, and its existing management team led by Chief Executive David Potts, and execute its existing strategy. Material store sale and leaseback transactions are not planned.\nPeople with knowledge of the situation have said CD&R would also be able to tick those boxes to secure a recommendation from Morrisons’ board.\nThey said CD&R, whose track record includes investment in UK discount retailer B&M, was likely to stress the greater synergies they would get from a deal, given its existing ownership of the Motor Fuel Group petrol forecourt chain.\nHowever, some analysts have argued that a higher bid makes asset sales more likely.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRWSF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891545262,"gmtCreate":1628404149456,"gmtModify":1631891663491,"author":{"id":"3582024918476098","authorId":"3582024918476098","name":"immryan","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582024918476098","authorIdStr":"3582024918476098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good and like :)","listText":"Good and like :)","text":"Good and like :)","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891545262","repostId":"1190347839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2981,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}