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Shadowrider

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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-10-04
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-09-28
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-09-16
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  Beyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading
  Beyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading after Piper Sandler downgraded the company to
  Beyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading
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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-09-11
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-09-11
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-09-11
  Ok
  Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited
  Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%
  Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited
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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-09-10
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  482 评论
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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-09-10
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-09-07
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  Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?
  While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the
  Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?
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- ShadowriderShadowrider
  ·2021-09-07
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862989519","repostId":"1168899994","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1676,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885490590,"gmtCreate":1631807814610,"gmtModify":1631891379563,"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorIdStr":"3582060513966213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885490590","repostId":"1169233466","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169233466","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631804939,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169233466?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 23:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169233466","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Beyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading after Piper Sandler downgraded the company to","content":"<p>Beyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading&nbsp;after Piper Sandler&nbsp;downgraded&nbsp;the company to an underweight rating.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f2b15e1f14a11787379dd95a4d8eb6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Shares of Beyond Meat Inc. took a hit Thursday, after Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery turned bearish on the plant-based meat company, citing a weaker growth outlook and concern the outlook for foodservice sales may be overly optimistic.</p>\n<p>Lavery downgraded the stock to underweight, after being at neutral for the past eight months. He cut his price target to $95, which is 14% below Wednesday's closing price, from $120.</p>\n<p>\"Beyond is an early leader in plant-based meat, but we believe its current all-channel retail momentum lags consensus expectations, and our foodservice estimates may be high, too,\" Lavery wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>He estimates that the company's U.S. retail sales fell by about 10% in the third quarter, with multi-outlet with convenience store channel sales down 8% and natural channel sales down 27%.</p>\n<p>\"Beyond's retail sales declines are worse than all of its food peers in our coverage besides B&amp;G Foods,\" Lavery wrote. He rates B&amp;G&nbsp;at neutral.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-16 23:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Beyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading&nbsp;after Piper Sandler&nbsp;downgraded&nbsp;the company to an underweight rating.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58f2b15e1f14a11787379dd95a4d8eb6\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Shares of Beyond Meat Inc. took a hit Thursday, after Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery turned bearish on the plant-based meat company, citing a weaker growth outlook and concern the outlook for foodservice sales may be overly optimistic.</p>\n<p>Lavery downgraded the stock to underweight, after being at neutral for the past eight months. He cut his price target to $95, which is 14% below Wednesday's closing price, from $120.</p>\n<p>\"Beyond is an early leader in plant-based meat, but we believe its current all-channel retail momentum lags consensus expectations, and our foodservice estimates may be high, too,\" Lavery wrote in a note to clients.</p>\n<p>He estimates that the company's U.S. retail sales fell by about 10% in the third quarter, with multi-outlet with convenience store channel sales down 8% and natural channel sales down 27%.</p>\n<p>\"Beyond's retail sales declines are worse than all of its food peers in our coverage besides B&amp;G Foods,\" Lavery wrote. He rates B&amp;G&nbsp;at neutral.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169233466","content_text":"Beyond Meat stock dropped nearly 5% in morning trading after Piper Sandler downgraded the company to an underweight rating.\n\nShares of Beyond Meat Inc. took a hit Thursday, after Piper Sandler analyst Michael Lavery turned bearish on the plant-based meat company, citing a weaker growth outlook and concern the outlook for foodservice sales may be overly optimistic.\nLavery downgraded the stock to underweight, after being at neutral for the past eight months. He cut his price target to $95, which is 14% below Wednesday's closing price, from $120.\n\"Beyond is an early leader in plant-based meat, but we believe its current all-channel retail momentum lags consensus expectations, and our foodservice estimates may be high, too,\" Lavery wrote in a note to clients.\nHe estimates that the company's U.S. retail sales fell by about 10% in the third quarter, with multi-outlet with convenience store channel sales down 8% and natural channel sales down 27%.\n\"Beyond's retail sales declines are worse than all of its food peers in our coverage besides B&G Foods,\" Lavery wrote. He rates B&G at neutral.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881837473,"gmtCreate":1631322661292,"gmtModify":1631891379566,"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorIdStr":"3582060513966213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881837473","repostId":"2166711113","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881837139,"gmtCreate":1631322636421,"gmtModify":1631891379567,"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorIdStr":"3582060513966213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881837139","repostId":"2166374133","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881834257,"gmtCreate":1631322609679,"gmtModify":1631891379570,"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorIdStr":"3582060513966213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881834257","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p>\n<p>In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p>\n<p>Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p>\n<p>SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p>\n<p>Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p>\n<p>Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p>\n<p>“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p>\n<p>Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p>\n<p>Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p>\n<p>The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-11 08:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883174471,"gmtCreate":1631230675493,"gmtModify":1631891379574,"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorIdStr":"3582060513966213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883174471","repostId":"2166426123","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883175156,"gmtCreate":1631230586175,"gmtModify":1631891379580,"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorIdStr":"3582060513966213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883175156","repostId":"2166443253","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817285279,"gmtCreate":1630969874891,"gmtModify":1631891379580,"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorIdStr":"3582060513966213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817285279","repostId":"1136345203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136345203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136345203?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136345203","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the ","content":"<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our&nbsp;<i><b>Daily Market Commentary</b></i>&nbsp;on Wednesday:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c476595aaa36e3658acd7c6b2458a4f3\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.</p>\n<p>However, in the meantime, the&nbsp;<i>“stairstep”</i>&nbsp;advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market.&nbsp;<b>Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.</b>So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ab015b2782edccd8f71c842786623\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings fail<i>t</i>o keep up with bullish expectations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32446c1ed4942c292051ab6f2646826f\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Significantly, investors never realize they are in a&nbsp;</b><b><i>“melt-up”</i></b><b>&nbsp;until after it is over.</b></p>\n<p><u><b>Breadth Remains Weak As Market Advances</b></u></p>\n<p>At the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>”&nbsp;As shown in the chart below, although the S&amp;P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&amp;P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&amp;P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bec2406de602b799eed4c8cda45840c\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“The percentage of S&amp;P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c475204276754086f148219d6f0947\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e880f82c99840963c1b4fb2f95b915ec\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"299\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Can The Fed Really Taper?</b></p>\n<p>We have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted&nbsp;<b><i>in our daily market commentary:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading.&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>The year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;Importantly&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>it suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.</b></i>\n <i>However, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some&nbsp;“wiggle-room”&nbsp;for now, but likely not for long.</i>“\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bb27150d54a104d64668f5f4306208\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.</p>\n<p>The point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be&nbsp;<i>“trapped</i>” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.</p>\n<p>That risk is the&nbsp;<i>“deficit.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Who Is Going To Fund The Deficit</b></p>\n<p>As discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as&nbsp;<i>“infrastructure”</i>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<i>“human infrastructure”</i>comes from debt issuance.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f74a7c9f8392d4c3c6d366934b42511\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least<b><i>&nbsp;$1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning.&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>The Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –</b></i>\n <i>Reason</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The CBO&nbsp;(Congressional Budget Office) recently&nbsp;produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns.&nbsp;I reconstructed a chart from&nbsp;Deutsche Bank&nbsp;showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771627893f89b51b37543e28698ed961\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>The federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.</b></p>\n<p>The problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.</p>\n<p>Let than sink in for a minute.</p>\n<p>If that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to&nbsp;<i>“taper”</i>&nbsp;their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.</p>\n<p>As Expected Q3-<b>GDP Gets Slashed</b></p>\n<p>Since the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that&nbsp;<i>“bonds were sending an economic warning.”</i>&nbsp;To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>As shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ec177d9bfda4dab5c1a89f29d93556\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The&nbsp;<i><b>disappointment of economic growth</b></i>&nbsp;is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.</p>\n<p>On Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>3.7</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>percent</b></i>\n <i>on September 2,&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>down from 5.3 percent on September 1</b></i>\n <i>.” – Atlanta Fed</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c362937b721d02c854d792606d0166\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Notably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan and Goldman As Well</b></p>\n<p>As stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously</b></i>\n <i>. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>An examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e5c5eb2840814e2972c92ab0ef9bf3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.</b></i>\n <i>Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.”</i>&nbsp;–\n <i>&nbsp;Goldman Sachs</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Investors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Estimates At Risk</b></p>\n<p>In our post on<i><b>“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,</b></i>” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity&nbsp;(personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.</p>\n<p>The problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&amp;P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e58e6641c42d1879c094ce45b2f337\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Such puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4abafc44c03ff687ce87c361a1f1357\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That also puts the S&amp;P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0a0666e57f65c24037d219876028e2\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Through the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><i>Economic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Potentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>The increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Higher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>A weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Global demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.</i></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Such will leave investors once again</b><b><i>&nbsp;“overpaying”</i></b><b>&nbsp;for earnings growth that fails to materialize.</b></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 20:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136345203","content_text":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market Commentary on Wednesday:\n\n“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”\n\n\nFor now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their “tapering” plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.\nHowever, in the meantime, the “stairstep” advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market. Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.\nWhile there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings failto keep up with bullish expectations.\nSignificantly, investors never realize they are in a “melt-up” until after it is over.\nBreadth Remains Weak As Market Advances\nAt the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.\n\n” As shown in the chart below, although the S&P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab\n\n“The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”\n“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab\nOf course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.\n\n“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”\n\nCan The Fed Really Taper?\nWe have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin “tapering” the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted in our daily market commentary:\n\n“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading. \nThe year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.\n Importantly \nit suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.\nHowever, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some “wiggle-room” for now, but likely not for long.“\n\nWhile the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.\nThe point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be “trapped” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.\nThat risk is the “deficit.”\nWho Is Going To Fund The Deficit\nAs discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as “infrastructure” and “human infrastructure”comes from debt issuance.\nAs shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least $1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.\n\nThe scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning. \nThe Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –\nReason\n\n\nThe CBO (Congressional Budget Office) recently produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns. I reconstructed a chart from Deutsche Bank showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.\n\nThe federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.\nThe problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.\nLet than sink in for a minute.\nIf that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to “taper” their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.\nAs Expected Q3-GDP Gets Slashed\nSince the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that “bonds were sending an economic warning.” To wit:\n\n“\nAs shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.\n At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”\n\nThe disappointment of economic growth is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.\nOn Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.\n\n“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is \n3.7\n \npercent\non September 2, \ndown from 5.3 percent on September 1\n.” – Atlanta Fed\n\nNotably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.\nMorgan and Goldman As Well\nAs stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:\n\n“\nWe are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously\n. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.\n\n\nAn examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.\n The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”\n\nAs we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:\n\n“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.\nSpending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.” –\n  Goldman Sachs\n\nInvestors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.\nEarnings Estimates At Risk\nIn our post on“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity (personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.\nThe problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.\nSuch puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.\nThat also puts the S&P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.\nThrough the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:\n\nEconomic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.\nPotentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.\nThe increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.\nHigher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.\nA weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.\nGlobal demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.\n\nSuch will leave investors once again “overpaying” for earnings growth that fails to materialize.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817282784,"gmtCreate":1630969845348,"gmtModify":1631891379585,"author":{"id":"3582060513966213","authorId":"3582060513966213","name":"Shadowrider","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a097dc665f46a3e5b535d2fd63e682b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582060513966213","authorIdStr":"3582060513966213"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like&nbsp;","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817282784","repostId":"2165233357","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}