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- 7a6217227a621722
  ·2021-07-23
  Expected. Communist’s way for greater vision. Too bad for all ongoing investors and VE/PE firm.
  Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...
  (July 23) Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading. Bloomberg report that, China consider
  Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...
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- 7a6217227a621722
  ·2021-07-14
  [惊讶]
  红什资本米妮：用一级市场的股东心态来投资二级市场
  6月27日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day杭州站顺利举行。多位来自一二级市场的资深研究者对当前市场行情做出分析研判，红什资本资深研究专家米妮受邀出席并发表题为《深度挖掘10倍股的投资逻辑
  红什资本米妮：用一级市场的股东心态来投资二级市场
  1,929 评论
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- 7a6217227a621722
  ·2021-06-28
  Growth🔥
  Valuations Are Extreme. Stocks Can Still Go Up
  It all depends on earnings fulfilling rosy expectations. Somehow or other, the U.S. stock market is
  Valuations Are Extreme. Stocks Can Still Go Up
  1,271 评论
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Communist’s&nbsp;way for greater vision. Too bad for all ongoing investors and VE/PE firm.","listText":"Expected. Communist’s&nbsp;way for greater vision. Too bad for all ongoing investors and VE/PE firm.","text":"Expected. Communist’s way for greater vision. Too bad for all ongoing investors and VE/PE firm.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175795642","repostId":"1112567098","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112567098","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627048219,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1112567098?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 21:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112567098","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 23) Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading. Bloomberg report that, China consider","content":"<p>(July 23)&nbsp;Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading.&nbsp;Bloomberg&nbsp;report&nbsp;that,&nbsp;China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b057d861059cc83420bcf9edf2a465\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>China is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.</p>\n<p>In rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the people said.</p>\n<p>Local regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.</p>\n<p>The new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</p>\n<p>“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”</p>\n<p>New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.</p>\n<p>Beijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.</p>\n<p>Making the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”</p>\n<p>Education technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.</p>\n<p>Beijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.</p>\n<p>Last month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.</p>\n<p>Several high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.</p>\n<p>Shares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.</p>\n<p>Gaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Chinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChinese education stocks are trading sharply lower Fridaya after Bloomberg report suggested...\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-23 21:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 23)&nbsp;Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading.&nbsp;Bloomberg&nbsp;report&nbsp;that,&nbsp;China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2b057d861059cc83420bcf9edf2a465\" tg-width=\"370\" tg-height=\"246\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>China is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.</p>\n<p>In rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> of the people said.</p>\n<p>Local regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.</p>\n<p>The new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</p>\n<p>“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”</p>\n<p>New Oriental Education &amp; Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.</p>\n<p>Beijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.</p>\n<p>Making the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”</p>\n<p>Education technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.</p>\n<p>Beijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.</p>\n<p>Last month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.</p>\n<p>Several high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.</p>\n<p>Shares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.</p>\n<p>Gaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来","GOTU":"高途"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112567098","content_text":"(July 23) Chinese education stocks plunged in morning trading. Bloomberg report that, China considers turning tutoring companies into Non-Profits.\n\nChina is considering asking companies that offer tutoring on the school curriculum to go non-profit, according to people familiar with the matter, as part of a sweeping set of constraints that could decimate the country’s $100 billion education tech industry.\nIn rules currently being mulled, the platforms will likely no longer be allowed to raise capital or go public, the people said, asking to not be identified because the information is not public. Listed firms will also probably no longer be allowed to invest in or acquire education firms teaching school subjects while foreign capital will also be barred from the sector, one of the people said.\nLocal regulators will stop approving new after-school education firms seeking to offer tutoring on China’s compulsory syllabus and require extra scrutiny of existing online platforms, the people said. Vacation and weekend tutoring on school subjects will also be banned, they said. Changes may still occur as the rules haven’t been published. The 21st Century Business Herald earlier reported the bans on IPOs and investments by listed firms.\nThe new set of regulations, devised and overseen by a dedicated branch set up just last month to regulate the industry, could wipe out the enormous growth that made stock market darlings of TAL Education Group and Gaotu Techedu Inc. The regulatory assault mirrors a broader campaign against the growing heft of Chinese internet companies from Didi Global Inc. to Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.\n“Making the sector non-profit is just as good as eradicating the industry all together,” said Wu Yuefeng, a fund manager at Funding Capital Management (Beijing) Co. “The regulations on financing are a major surprise and shows that to the authorities, this is a matter of no small importance. In the short term for the sector, any news will be bad news.”\nNew Oriental Education & Technology Group sank as much as 50% in Hong Kong Friday, while Koolearn Technology Holding Ltd. tumbled 31%.\nBeijing is coming down hard on the sector as excessive tutoring anguishes young pupils and burdens parents with expensive tutoring fees. It’s also regarded as an impediment to one of the country’s top priorities, boosting a declining birth rate. Last month, China said it will allow a couple to have three children and released a slew of support measures to encourage births and lower child expenses.\nMaking the whole sector go non-profit “would make being a listed entity meaningless,” said Justin Tang, head of Asian research at United First Partners. “Investors are selling out first and asking questions later. It’s all being done to reduce cost of education and motivate citizens to raise kids.”\nEducation technology had emerged as one of the hottest investment plays in China in recent years, with $10 billion of venture capital money pouring into the sector last year alone. Alibaba, Tencent Holdings Ltd. and ByteDance Ltd. all entered the arena, seeking to capitalize on Chinese parents’ desires to give their children every academic advantage. A spokesman from the education ministry said relevant polices are still being formulated and declined to provide more details.\nBeijing is taking issue with for-profit companies for stressing out kids while enriching investors and startup founders. In May, President Xi Jinping chaired a meeting with top officials where they approved a new set of rules to ease the burden of homework and after-school training for primary and secondary school students.\nLast month, China’s education ministry created a dedicated division to oversee all private education platforms for the first time. That followed a plethora of restrictions, including caps on fees firms can charge and time limits on after-school programs. Regulators have fined two of the biggest startups for false advertising: Alibaba-backed Zuoyebang and Tencent-investee Yuanfudao. A new law on minor protection, which went into effect June 1, also bans kindergarten and private institutions from teaching the primary-school curriculum to pre-schoolers -- not uncommon previously.\nSeveral high-profile startups in the sector -- including Yuanfudao, which at $15.5 billion is the most valuable of the lot -- are likely to have to put initial public offering plans on hold because of the crackdown.\nShares of China’s largest private education companies are among the world’s worst performers in recent months, with New Oriental Education, TAL Education and Gaotu Techedu together shedding nearly $100 billion of value from their highs reached earlier this year.\nGaotu, New Oriental, Zuoyebang, Yuanfudao and TAL didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"EDU":0.9,"GOTU":0.9,"TAL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":144966308,"gmtCreate":1626262240304,"gmtModify":1631893518511,"author":{"id":"3582781497745376","authorId":"3582781497745376","name":"7a621722","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582781497745376","authorIdStr":"3582781497745376"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[惊讶]","listText":"[惊讶]","text":"[惊讶]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144966308","repostId":"1146832034","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1146832034","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1624946893,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1146832034?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 14:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"红什资本米妮：用一级市场的股东心态来投资二级市场","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146832034","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月27日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day杭州站顺利举行。多位来自一二级市场的资深研究者对当前市场行情做出分析研判，红什资本资深研究专家米妮受邀出席并发表题为《深度挖掘10倍股的投资逻辑","content":"<p>6月27日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day杭州站顺利举行。多位来自一二级市场的资深研究者对当前市场行情做出分析研判，红什资本资深研究专家米妮受邀出席并发表题为《深度挖掘10倍股的投资逻辑》主题分享。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcd89111e3d7b6cc924ccc59b937340\" tg-width=\"278\" tg-height=\"393\">“投资的重点应该放在挖掘上面，无论是10倍股，还是100倍股。”米妮认为，现在的新经济公司面临的可能都是指数级别的增长，也许一年就到来10倍股。我们要做的不仅是挖掘10倍股，重点在于挖掘有价值的公司。</p>\n<p>为什么现在10倍股的完成速度这么快？米妮认为，科技改变了现在经济和社会发展的模式，移动互联网改变了产业链的运营规律。以往传统公司的发展是线性的，随着互联网特别是移动互联网的出现，企业服务的是全球的用户，会发生裂变，带来指数级别的增长。</p>\n<p>作为普通投资人，应该如何应对这个变化呢？“用一级市场的眼光做股东的心态来投资二级市场”，米妮表示。她认为，一级市场的流动性差，持股时间久；二级市场流动性好，但是用户的情绪性操作会导致二级市场估值的波动较大。追涨杀跌比做波段更容易，因此我选择的是，对基本面看好的个股和公司，买入时拿着当股东的心态，给公司时间，陪着公司成长，否则我们其实就容易买到10倍股，但是却挣不到10倍股的钱。</p>\n<p>谈到如何鉴别成长股，长期研究成长股的米妮认为，有些股票的EPS（每股收益）增长来自回购，并非是科技推动。过去三年，每一个月美股公司的回购额都很巨大，我们在做投资的时候，要多关注通过真正的颠覆性、创新性的技术带来利润增长的公司，这样的公司才能抵销通胀预期。</p>\n<p>具体而言，米妮建议投资者从五个方面进行发现和跟踪成长股。</p>\n<p>第一，要看企业的赛道空间。米妮举了一个汽车产业链的例子。以2019年市场规模测算，买车环节三万亿，用车环节大概八万亿，是一个巨大的赛道空间。由于汽车产业链电子化、智能化，改变了以往车厂只覆盖造车这一单一环节的情况，车厂能够参与到上下游的各个制造产业链，获得更多的分润。这也是特斯拉过去估值不断走高的原因，因为它不再是一个单纯的单整车厂，还延伸了产业链的上下游，并可以每个月收取用户的服务费。这种变革对于一线厂商、自动驾驶、激光雷达等等产业链的龙头公司都有利好作用，当这种巨型赛道面临历史变革的时候，也就是牛股倍出的时候，大家需要积极关注。</p>\n<p>第二，要关注企业的生命周期。米妮向大家介绍了一张木头姐姐常用的科技股投资曲线“S曲线图”。每一种新技术增长，都是一条条独立的S型曲线，经过了漫长多起步期，突破了关键点以后进入成长期，也就是说它市占率超过15-20%左右，就迎来了呈指数级别增长的时候，然后慢慢可能到成熟期的尾部增长率放缓，会有新的一条S型曲线出来。当市占率突破的时候，就是一个良好的投资进入点，即使做不到这一段，在这个点的附近，也可以吃到很大的利润。</p>\n<p>已知的财务数据代表企业的过去，公司未来的发展要看创始人和管理层的战略性布局。因此，研究企业的商业模式，分析行业的竞争格局，以及观察企业的管理团队，是另外需要重点关注的三点。</p>\n<p>最后，米妮表示，比发现10倍股更难的就是能拿住10倍股，抱着一级市场的心态关注公司的长期发展，坚定持股，才能获得良好的收益。根据历史的估值水平寻成长股的找安全边际是有局限性的，成长股是有裂变的，要关注公司的可持续性成长。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>红什资本米妮：用一级市场的股东心态来投资二级市场</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n红什资本米妮：用一级市场的股东心态来投资二级市场\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-29 14:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>6月27日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day杭州站顺利举行。多位来自一二级市场的资深研究者对当前市场行情做出分析研判，红什资本资深研究专家米妮受邀出席并发表题为《深度挖掘10倍股的投资逻辑》主题分享。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4bcd89111e3d7b6cc924ccc59b937340\" tg-width=\"278\" tg-height=\"393\">“投资的重点应该放在挖掘上面，无论是10倍股，还是100倍股。”米妮认为，现在的新经济公司面临的可能都是指数级别的增长，也许一年就到来10倍股。我们要做的不仅是挖掘10倍股，重点在于挖掘有价值的公司。</p>\n<p>为什么现在10倍股的完成速度这么快？米妮认为，科技改变了现在经济和社会发展的模式，移动互联网改变了产业链的运营规律。以往传统公司的发展是线性的，随着互联网特别是移动互联网的出现，企业服务的是全球的用户，会发生裂变，带来指数级别的增长。</p>\n<p>作为普通投资人，应该如何应对这个变化呢？“用一级市场的眼光做股东的心态来投资二级市场”，米妮表示。她认为，一级市场的流动性差，持股时间久；二级市场流动性好，但是用户的情绪性操作会导致二级市场估值的波动较大。追涨杀跌比做波段更容易，因此我选择的是，对基本面看好的个股和公司，买入时拿着当股东的心态，给公司时间，陪着公司成长，否则我们其实就容易买到10倍股，但是却挣不到10倍股的钱。</p>\n<p>谈到如何鉴别成长股，长期研究成长股的米妮认为，有些股票的EPS（每股收益）增长来自回购，并非是科技推动。过去三年，每一个月美股公司的回购额都很巨大，我们在做投资的时候，要多关注通过真正的颠覆性、创新性的技术带来利润增长的公司，这样的公司才能抵销通胀预期。</p>\n<p>具体而言，米妮建议投资者从五个方面进行发现和跟踪成长股。</p>\n<p>第一，要看企业的赛道空间。米妮举了一个汽车产业链的例子。以2019年市场规模测算，买车环节三万亿，用车环节大概八万亿，是一个巨大的赛道空间。由于汽车产业链电子化、智能化，改变了以往车厂只覆盖造车这一单一环节的情况，车厂能够参与到上下游的各个制造产业链，获得更多的分润。这也是特斯拉过去估值不断走高的原因，因为它不再是一个单纯的单整车厂，还延伸了产业链的上下游，并可以每个月收取用户的服务费。这种变革对于一线厂商、自动驾驶、激光雷达等等产业链的龙头公司都有利好作用，当这种巨型赛道面临历史变革的时候，也就是牛股倍出的时候，大家需要积极关注。</p>\n<p>第二，要关注企业的生命周期。米妮向大家介绍了一张木头姐姐常用的科技股投资曲线“S曲线图”。每一种新技术增长，都是一条条独立的S型曲线，经过了漫长多起步期，突破了关键点以后进入成长期，也就是说它市占率超过15-20%左右，就迎来了呈指数级别增长的时候，然后慢慢可能到成熟期的尾部增长率放缓，会有新的一条S型曲线出来。当市占率突破的时候，就是一个良好的投资进入点，即使做不到这一段，在这个点的附近，也可以吃到很大的利润。</p>\n<p>已知的财务数据代表企业的过去，公司未来的发展要看创始人和管理层的战略性布局。因此，研究企业的商业模式，分析行业的竞争格局，以及观察企业的管理团队，是另外需要重点关注的三点。</p>\n<p>最后，米妮表示，比发现10倍股更难的就是能拿住10倍股，抱着一级市场的心态关注公司的长期发展，坚定持股，才能获得良好的收益。根据历史的估值水平寻成长股的找安全边际是有局限性的，成长股是有裂变的，要关注公司的可持续性成长。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b3b5e72649367d0aafd9bcbbca9bcd1","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146832034","content_text":"6月27日，知名互联网券商老虎证券七周年Open Day杭州站顺利举行。多位来自一二级市场的资深研究者对当前市场行情做出分析研判，红什资本资深研究专家米妮受邀出席并发表题为《深度挖掘10倍股的投资逻辑》主题分享。“投资的重点应该放在挖掘上面，无论是10倍股，还是100倍股。”米妮认为，现在的新经济公司面临的可能都是指数级别的增长，也许一年就到来10倍股。我们要做的不仅是挖掘10倍股，重点在于挖掘有价值的公司。\n为什么现在10倍股的完成速度这么快？米妮认为，科技改变了现在经济和社会发展的模式，移动互联网改变了产业链的运营规律。以往传统公司的发展是线性的，随着互联网特别是移动互联网的出现，企业服务的是全球的用户，会发生裂变，带来指数级别的增长。\n作为普通投资人，应该如何应对这个变化呢？“用一级市场的眼光做股东的心态来投资二级市场”，米妮表示。她认为，一级市场的流动性差，持股时间久；二级市场流动性好，但是用户的情绪性操作会导致二级市场估值的波动较大。追涨杀跌比做波段更容易，因此我选择的是，对基本面看好的个股和公司，买入时拿着当股东的心态，给公司时间，陪着公司成长，否则我们其实就容易买到10倍股，但是却挣不到10倍股的钱。\n谈到如何鉴别成长股，长期研究成长股的米妮认为，有些股票的EPS（每股收益）增长来自回购，并非是科技推动。过去三年，每一个月美股公司的回购额都很巨大，我们在做投资的时候，要多关注通过真正的颠覆性、创新性的技术带来利润增长的公司，这样的公司才能抵销通胀预期。\n具体而言，米妮建议投资者从五个方面进行发现和跟踪成长股。\n第一，要看企业的赛道空间。米妮举了一个汽车产业链的例子。以2019年市场规模测算，买车环节三万亿，用车环节大概八万亿，是一个巨大的赛道空间。由于汽车产业链电子化、智能化，改变了以往车厂只覆盖造车这一单一环节的情况，车厂能够参与到上下游的各个制造产业链，获得更多的分润。这也是特斯拉过去估值不断走高的原因，因为它不再是一个单纯的单整车厂，还延伸了产业链的上下游，并可以每个月收取用户的服务费。这种变革对于一线厂商、自动驾驶、激光雷达等等产业链的龙头公司都有利好作用，当这种巨型赛道面临历史变革的时候，也就是牛股倍出的时候，大家需要积极关注。\n第二，要关注企业的生命周期。米妮向大家介绍了一张木头姐姐常用的科技股投资曲线“S曲线图”。每一种新技术增长，都是一条条独立的S型曲线，经过了漫长多起步期，突破了关键点以后进入成长期，也就是说它市占率超过15-20%左右，就迎来了呈指数级别增长的时候，然后慢慢可能到成熟期的尾部增长率放缓，会有新的一条S型曲线出来。当市占率突破的时候，就是一个良好的投资进入点，即使做不到这一段，在这个点的附近，也可以吃到很大的利润。\n已知的财务数据代表企业的过去，公司未来的发展要看创始人和管理层的战略性布局。因此，研究企业的商业模式，分析行业的竞争格局，以及观察企业的管理团队，是另外需要重点关注的三点。\n最后，米妮表示，比发现10倍股更难的就是能拿住10倍股，抱着一级市场的心态关注公司的长期发展，坚定持股，才能获得良好的收益。根据历史的估值水平寻成长股的找安全边际是有局限性的，成长股是有裂变的，要关注公司的可持续性成长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1929,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":150069922,"gmtCreate":1624875970966,"gmtModify":1631893518511,"author":{"id":"3582781497745376","authorId":"3582781497745376","name":"7a621722","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3582781497745376","authorIdStr":"3582781497745376"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Growth🔥","listText":"Growth🔥","text":"Growth🔥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150069922","repostId":"1197233389","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197233389","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624871501,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1197233389?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 17:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Valuations Are Extreme. Stocks Can Still Go Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197233389","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"It all depends on earnings fulfilling rosy expectations.\nSomehow or other, the U.S. stock market is ","content":"<p>It all depends on earnings fulfilling rosy expectations.</p>\n<p>Somehow or other, the U.S. stock market is at yet another all-time high. The S&amp;P 500 has risen 91.3% from its Covid panic low last March. With the year not quite half gone, it is up 14%. These are very impressive results, particularly with the latest consumer price index data showing the worst inflation in main street prices in almost three decades.</p>\n<p>The U.S. is also running a long way ahead of the rest of the world. The MSCI World Excluding the U.S. index is somewhat below the high it set earlier in June. In the long run, the difference between the two is extraordinary. It was only a couple of weeks ago that the world excluding the U.S. topped its previous all-time high, set on the ominous date of Oct.&nbsp;31, 2007. As of Friday’s close, the index is 0.18% higher than it was on Halloween 14 years ago. I couldn’t be bothered to get the Bloomberg terminal to calculate that as an annualized rate. Here is how the indexes have compared since that pre-global financial crisis peak:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412e67e47fa984f5c40b44087ab5fb99\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>There are some obvious explanations for this. All the biggest winners from the growth of the internet and online commerce have been American; the euro zone inflicted the sovereign debt crisis on itself for much of the last decade; the Federal Reserve was far faster and more enthusiastic to prime the pump with quantitative easing asset purchases. But still, the U.S. economy continues to cause great discontent amid the population at large, and it’s not as though the rest of the world has suffered anything like the Great Depression, outside small pockets such as Greece.</p>\n<p>If there is a long-term&nbsp;driver, it is corporate earnings. The following remarkable chart comes from Doug Ramsey of the Leuthold Group in Minneapolis:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bf73c190e0872edc313b371ecc524d3\" tg-width=\"1199\" tg-height=\"999\"></p>\n<p>Since that Halloween peak, there has been an astounding 90% correlation between different countries’ growth in earnings per share and the change in the value of their stock markets (as measured by MSCI). And, almost equally astoundingly, most developed countries have seen earnings fall over the last 14&nbsp;years. That means that the U.S. has performed much better than the rest. The only country to come close is Denmark (powered by Novo Nordisk A/S, which has increased sixfold since Halloween 2007).</p>\n<p>Overall, earnings are down outside the U.S., including developed and emerging markets. This is the same chart I began with, but this time showing Bloomberg’s estimate of forward earnings, rather than share prices. The two charts do look similar:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c20f0bb74adbe3209d45c7ad73f6d66\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Ramsey points out that a weakening currency will make&nbsp;U.S. companies’ profits look even better in dollar terms, so the dominance is unlikely to be shaken any time soon. But the broader point remains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>We often joke about the over-optimism of earnings forecasts, but this is ridiculous. In 2021 - with much of the world engaged in QE for a decade or longer and short-term interest rates either at, near, or below zero —&nbsp;most countries are struggling to put up earnings per share levels that analysts once deemed likely for 2008.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>How to explain this? Plainly, this speaks to excruciatingly poor economic performance in much of the world. This may not have been a depression, but growth has been slow since the crisis. There is also an anti-American argument for the many people who want to make it. U.S. authorities have allowed a number of internet groups to buy up their competitors and become deeply entrenched, and they are now busily eating up profits that would once have accrued to companies in other countries. It’s no wonder that European competition authorities are getting aggressive about this. And there is a positive American argument:&nbsp;The internet, which originated in the U.S. military-industrial complex, has allowed corporate America to innovate and grow in a way that has eluded everyone else.</p>\n<p>Leaving that long-term argument to one side, the short-term implication is that even if price-earnings ratios look extremely high (which they do, particularly in the U.S.), it is plenty possible for share prices to rise even as multiples fall, if profits keep expanding. This chart of global equity returns is from Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy Research Ltd. in London. It decomposes growth due to dividends, earnings growth, and multiple expansion. Over the last 12 months, in which equities have somehow returned 39.7%, widening P/E ratios have accounted for most of the gain:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f338d0eea4a054071d7602fae867ed8\" tg-width=\"1562\" tg-height=\"1102\"></p>\n<p>It is only rational to assume that valuations will come down. However, the experience of 2010-2011, highlighted in the chart, shows that it’s still possible for stock markets to gain in these circumstances. The start of that period was a messy year filled with gloom over currency debasement, the debt-ceiling row in the U.S., and the beginning of the euro-zone debt crisis; but earnings still grew by enough to counterbalance the fall in multiples, and stocks rose. A “benign compression” in valuations can happen. If we suffer a liquidity shock or another unexpected blow from the pandemic (of which more below), then valuations make it very hard for stocks to make more progress. But there is a possibility of growth from here.</p>\n<p>To end with a note of caution, however, Absolute Strategy also breaks down global equity returns since 1975 into earnings and multiple expansion. Differences in earnings in the post-crisis era have determined which markets have won and which have lost, but in the longer term, multiples have been far more influential in driving returns.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02e0003916dd8c51e37749191efe213c\" tg-width=\"1356\" tg-height=\"876\"></p>\n<p>The bottom line? Earnings season, three weeks away now, probably matters more for stock prices than the rash of macro data that will start at the end of this week with ISM surveys and U.S. non-farm payrolls. There had better not be too many negative surprises. With valuations so high, it behooves everyone to be aware of the risks of a fall. But it also behooves those (like me) who’ve been warning about the risks of excessive valuations to accept that there’s still a way that markets could gain further from here, if earnings fulfill rosy expectations.</p>\n<p><b>Cautionary Tale From Home</b></p>\n<p>The most dangerous risks are the ones we don’t understand, or don’t see. All of us, including plenty with medical knowledge, have learned what we don’t know about infectious diseases and their effects on the economy over the last 18 months. So I offer the following case with due humility. It would seriously be a good idea to keep an eye on the pandemic in the U.K. in the next few weeks. This is how the trend in daily cases has moved since the beginning of the outbreak last year:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aadeda27d4f18fd5306b22c419e5fd17\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>Obviously, the rise in infections should concern&nbsp;everyone. To recap, the U.K. proved to be a test experiment first on the British variant, then on being the first developed country to execute a successful mass vaccination program, and is now the first developed country to host an outbreak of the delta variant. A big vaccination campaign hasn’t stopped another wave of infections&nbsp;and hospitalizations. So far it hasn’t led to a significant rise in deaths:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7d9e1223fbbb5157263477b9305f0fa\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\"></p>\n<p>What do we need to learn in the next few weeks? The disaster scenario involves the variant gaining further in strength, and hospitalizing and killing more people —&nbsp;even if they have been fully vaccinated, as a significant proportion of current patients have been. If deaths stay this low, and the variant doesn't inflict long-term negative consequences on patients, it could almost be seen as good news; the vaccination campaign has saved the lives of the most vulnerable, and the latest outbreak is most serious among younger people who are less likely to be vaccinated, and also less likely to be in mortal danger. This could be the final stage toward&nbsp;reaching “herd immunity” for the U.K.</p>\n<p>One alarming implication of the U.K. experience, however, is that even a massive vaccination campaign doesn’t get us to herd immunity. At one point there were optimistic projections that only about a quarter of people needed to be infected or vaccinated. Now it looks as though that number is much, much higher. And the longer we wait for herd immunity, the longer the virus has a chance to develop&nbsp;new variants, which may prove resistant to vaccines.</p>\n<p>As it stands, the base scenario, which many are beginning to regard as a certainty, is that the pandemic is on its last legs. That is still a reasonable prospect. But the British experience has already had real world economic effects. Reopening has been postponed for a month, and the Bank of England might well have tapered its support for markets last month had it not been for this renewed outbreak. There is no reason for terror, but every reason for investors to keep a close eye on Covid figures, particularly for now in the U.K.</p>\n<p><b>Authers Indicators</b></p>\n<p>The latest update of Authers Indicators (the glorious name, which wasn’t my idea, for our inflation heat map) ishere. You need to squint to see the changes from last week, as there haven’t been many new economic releases. In brief, market breakevens turned up&nbsp;a little, as did commodity prices, to make up for the overreaction to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting the week before. This leaves most of them plumb in the middle of their range for the last 10 years. Among raw material prices, lumber futures are fast coming back down to earth,&nbsp;as predicted and hoped by many, while the CRB RIND index, second from right in the raw-material prices row, continues to rise. This is of interest because it covers commodities that aren’t available on futures markets, and therefore should be a purer representation of demand and supply pressures, and not affected by swings in sentiment about the Fed.</p>\n<p>The one serious extreme square is rental car inflation. It would be disconcerting if that cell weren’t much paler blue after the next CPI data. The broad overview remains; the official data are plainly elevated, and consumer and business surveys continue to show concern; investors and economists are relatively unconcerned, while wage growth remains under control. There is inflation, but everything so far is consistent with it proving to be transitory.&nbsp;Keep watching this space.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2dbc87c7c9c26f4f27b16f3d0d2246d1\" tg-width=\"658\" tg-height=\"454\"></p>\n<p><b>Risks &amp;&nbsp;Rewards</b></p>\n<p>Lisa Abramowicz and I held our third livestreamed conversation on the markets on Friday, and we hope that it will help you get ready for next week. Lisa started by commenting that markets seemed to have lapsed into a post-FOMC stupor, as if nothing, even a taper, really mattered. That led to an attempt to trademark the phrase “taper stupor.” It’s almost as good as “taper tantrum” but slightly harder to pronounce.</p>\n<p>As you might guess, both of us are rather concerned about complacency, and the difficulty people seem to be having with even imagining what might go wrong from here in markets. There’s certainly a reasonable base case that things go well, but it’s best to remain humble, particularly when one of the primary risks is biological, not financial or economic. You can find the conversation&nbsp;here.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc0b64f70636ef1ef2dc5794db56e959\" tg-width=\"643\" tg-height=\"438\"></p>\n<p><b>Omissions</b></p>\n<p>In last week’s discussion of bond factors going back to Waterloo, based on a paper from the quants at Robeco, I forgot to provide a link to the paper. You can find it&nbsp;here. My apologies for the omission.</p>\n<p><b>Survival Tips</b></p>\n<p>I still have sport on the brain, I’m afraid. As&nbsp;Denmark&nbsp;are proving one of the wonderful stories of the&nbsp;European Championships, let me remind everyone of my favorite Danish export to help me get through the pandemic, the TV series&nbsp;<i>Borgen</i>, which is still streaming on Netflix. It’s a fantastic, twisting and turning drama about&nbsp;Danish politics. Imagine a rather strange hybrid of<i>The West Wing</i>and<i>The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo</i>, and you get the idea. Perfect&nbsp;binge viewing. Meanwhile, for those who had never heard of Christian Eriksen before he became famous for suffering cardiac unrest on the field in the Euros,&nbsp;hereare some of the goals he scored for Spurs as he became a star.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, in baseball the Red Sox have just completed their second successive sweep of the Yankees. A very welcome improvement on last year. I’ve been lucky to be in Yankee Stadium for some great Sox moments in recent years. So, here are some home runs from&nbsp;Rafael Devers in 2017,Brock Holt in 2018(to complete the cycle), and&nbsp;Bobby Dalbecearlier this month. I had a great view of all of them. May they never get old. Have a great week, everyone.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Valuations Are Extreme. Stocks Can Still Go Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValuations Are Extreme. Stocks Can Still Go Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 17:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-28/valuations-are-extreme-stocks-can-still-go-up><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>It all depends on earnings fulfilling rosy expectations.\nSomehow or other, the U.S. stock market is at yet another all-time high. The S&P 500 has risen 91.3% from its Covid panic low last March. With ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-28/valuations-are-extreme-stocks-can-still-go-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-28/valuations-are-extreme-stocks-can-still-go-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197233389","content_text":"It all depends on earnings fulfilling rosy expectations.\nSomehow or other, the U.S. stock market is at yet another all-time high. The S&P 500 has risen 91.3% from its Covid panic low last March. With the year not quite half gone, it is up 14%. These are very impressive results, particularly with the latest consumer price index data showing the worst inflation in main street prices in almost three decades.\nThe U.S. is also running a long way ahead of the rest of the world. The MSCI World Excluding the U.S. index is somewhat below the high it set earlier in June. In the long run, the difference between the two is extraordinary. It was only a couple of weeks ago that the world excluding the U.S. topped its previous all-time high, set on the ominous date of Oct. 31, 2007. As of Friday’s close, the index is 0.18% higher than it was on Halloween 14 years ago. I couldn’t be bothered to get the Bloomberg terminal to calculate that as an annualized rate. Here is how the indexes have compared since that pre-global financial crisis peak:\n\nThere are some obvious explanations for this. All the biggest winners from the growth of the internet and online commerce have been American; the euro zone inflicted the sovereign debt crisis on itself for much of the last decade; the Federal Reserve was far faster and more enthusiastic to prime the pump with quantitative easing asset purchases. But still, the U.S. economy continues to cause great discontent amid the population at large, and it’s not as though the rest of the world has suffered anything like the Great Depression, outside small pockets such as Greece.\nIf there is a long-term driver, it is corporate earnings. The following remarkable chart comes from Doug Ramsey of the Leuthold Group in Minneapolis:\n\nSince that Halloween peak, there has been an astounding 90% correlation between different countries’ growth in earnings per share and the change in the value of their stock markets (as measured by MSCI). And, almost equally astoundingly, most developed countries have seen earnings fall over the last 14 years. That means that the U.S. has performed much better than the rest. The only country to come close is Denmark (powered by Novo Nordisk A/S, which has increased sixfold since Halloween 2007).\nOverall, earnings are down outside the U.S., including developed and emerging markets. This is the same chart I began with, but this time showing Bloomberg’s estimate of forward earnings, rather than share prices. The two charts do look similar:\n\nRamsey points out that a weakening currency will make U.S. companies’ profits look even better in dollar terms, so the dominance is unlikely to be shaken any time soon. But the broader point remains:\n\nWe often joke about the over-optimism of earnings forecasts, but this is ridiculous. In 2021 - with much of the world engaged in QE for a decade or longer and short-term interest rates either at, near, or below zero — most countries are struggling to put up earnings per share levels that analysts once deemed likely for 2008.\n\nHow to explain this? Plainly, this speaks to excruciatingly poor economic performance in much of the world. This may not have been a depression, but growth has been slow since the crisis. There is also an anti-American argument for the many people who want to make it. U.S. authorities have allowed a number of internet groups to buy up their competitors and become deeply entrenched, and they are now busily eating up profits that would once have accrued to companies in other countries. It’s no wonder that European competition authorities are getting aggressive about this. And there is a positive American argument: The internet, which originated in the U.S. military-industrial complex, has allowed corporate America to innovate and grow in a way that has eluded everyone else.\nLeaving that long-term argument to one side, the short-term implication is that even if price-earnings ratios look extremely high (which they do, particularly in the U.S.), it is plenty possible for share prices to rise even as multiples fall, if profits keep expanding. This chart of global equity returns is from Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy Research Ltd. in London. It decomposes growth due to dividends, earnings growth, and multiple expansion. Over the last 12 months, in which equities have somehow returned 39.7%, widening P/E ratios have accounted for most of the gain:\n\nIt is only rational to assume that valuations will come down. However, the experience of 2010-2011, highlighted in the chart, shows that it’s still possible for stock markets to gain in these circumstances. The start of that period was a messy year filled with gloom over currency debasement, the debt-ceiling row in the U.S., and the beginning of the euro-zone debt crisis; but earnings still grew by enough to counterbalance the fall in multiples, and stocks rose. A “benign compression” in valuations can happen. If we suffer a liquidity shock or another unexpected blow from the pandemic (of which more below), then valuations make it very hard for stocks to make more progress. But there is a possibility of growth from here.\nTo end with a note of caution, however, Absolute Strategy also breaks down global equity returns since 1975 into earnings and multiple expansion. Differences in earnings in the post-crisis era have determined which markets have won and which have lost, but in the longer term, multiples have been far more influential in driving returns.\n\nThe bottom line? Earnings season, three weeks away now, probably matters more for stock prices than the rash of macro data that will start at the end of this week with ISM surveys and U.S. non-farm payrolls. There had better not be too many negative surprises. With valuations so high, it behooves everyone to be aware of the risks of a fall. But it also behooves those (like me) who’ve been warning about the risks of excessive valuations to accept that there’s still a way that markets could gain further from here, if earnings fulfill rosy expectations.\nCautionary Tale From Home\nThe most dangerous risks are the ones we don’t understand, or don’t see. All of us, including plenty with medical knowledge, have learned what we don’t know about infectious diseases and their effects on the economy over the last 18 months. So I offer the following case with due humility. It would seriously be a good idea to keep an eye on the pandemic in the U.K. in the next few weeks. This is how the trend in daily cases has moved since the beginning of the outbreak last year:\n\nObviously, the rise in infections should concern everyone. To recap, the U.K. proved to be a test experiment first on the British variant, then on being the first developed country to execute a successful mass vaccination program, and is now the first developed country to host an outbreak of the delta variant. A big vaccination campaign hasn’t stopped another wave of infections and hospitalizations. So far it hasn’t led to a significant rise in deaths:\n\nWhat do we need to learn in the next few weeks? The disaster scenario involves the variant gaining further in strength, and hospitalizing and killing more people — even if they have been fully vaccinated, as a significant proportion of current patients have been. If deaths stay this low, and the variant doesn't inflict long-term negative consequences on patients, it could almost be seen as good news; the vaccination campaign has saved the lives of the most vulnerable, and the latest outbreak is most serious among younger people who are less likely to be vaccinated, and also less likely to be in mortal danger. This could be the final stage toward reaching “herd immunity” for the U.K.\nOne alarming implication of the U.K. experience, however, is that even a massive vaccination campaign doesn’t get us to herd immunity. At one point there were optimistic projections that only about a quarter of people needed to be infected or vaccinated. Now it looks as though that number is much, much higher. And the longer we wait for herd immunity, the longer the virus has a chance to develop new variants, which may prove resistant to vaccines.\nAs it stands, the base scenario, which many are beginning to regard as a certainty, is that the pandemic is on its last legs. That is still a reasonable prospect. But the British experience has already had real world economic effects. Reopening has been postponed for a month, and the Bank of England might well have tapered its support for markets last month had it not been for this renewed outbreak. There is no reason for terror, but every reason for investors to keep a close eye on Covid figures, particularly for now in the U.K.\nAuthers Indicators\nThe latest update of Authers Indicators (the glorious name, which wasn’t my idea, for our inflation heat map) ishere. You need to squint to see the changes from last week, as there haven’t been many new economic releases. In brief, market breakevens turned up a little, as did commodity prices, to make up for the overreaction to the Federal Open Market Committee meeting the week before. This leaves most of them plumb in the middle of their range for the last 10 years. Among raw material prices, lumber futures are fast coming back down to earth, as predicted and hoped by many, while the CRB RIND index, second from right in the raw-material prices row, continues to rise. This is of interest because it covers commodities that aren’t available on futures markets, and therefore should be a purer representation of demand and supply pressures, and not affected by swings in sentiment about the Fed.\nThe one serious extreme square is rental car inflation. It would be disconcerting if that cell weren’t much paler blue after the next CPI data. The broad overview remains; the official data are plainly elevated, and consumer and business surveys continue to show concern; investors and economists are relatively unconcerned, while wage growth remains under control. There is inflation, but everything so far is consistent with it proving to be transitory. Keep watching this space.\n\nRisks & Rewards\nLisa Abramowicz and I held our third livestreamed conversation on the markets on Friday, and we hope that it will help you get ready for next week. Lisa started by commenting that markets seemed to have lapsed into a post-FOMC stupor, as if nothing, even a taper, really mattered. That led to an attempt to trademark the phrase “taper stupor.” It’s almost as good as “taper tantrum” but slightly harder to pronounce.\nAs you might guess, both of us are rather concerned about complacency, and the difficulty people seem to be having with even imagining what might go wrong from here in markets. There’s certainly a reasonable base case that things go well, but it’s best to remain humble, particularly when one of the primary risks is biological, not financial or economic. You can find the conversation here.\n\nOmissions\nIn last week’s discussion of bond factors going back to Waterloo, based on a paper from the quants at Robeco, I forgot to provide a link to the paper. You can find it here. My apologies for the omission.\nSurvival Tips\nI still have sport on the brain, I’m afraid. As Denmark are proving one of the wonderful stories of the European Championships, let me remind everyone of my favorite Danish export to help me get through the pandemic, the TV series Borgen, which is still streaming on Netflix. It’s a fantastic, twisting and turning drama about Danish politics. Imagine a rather strange hybrid ofThe West WingandThe Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and you get the idea. Perfect binge viewing. Meanwhile, for those who had never heard of Christian Eriksen before he became famous for suffering cardiac unrest on the field in the Euros, hereare some of the goals he scored for Spurs as he became a star.\nMeanwhile, in baseball the Red Sox have just completed their second successive sweep of the Yankees. A very welcome improvement on last year. I’ve been lucky to be in Yankee Stadium for some great Sox moments in recent years. So, here are some home runs from Rafael Devers in 2017,Brock Holt in 2018(to complete the cycle), and Bobby Dalbecearlier this month. I had a great view of all of them. May they never get old. Have a great week, everyone.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}