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2022-07-14
@小虎产品经理
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美联储褐皮书:通胀持续高企,衰退风险影响经济前景
所有地区都出现价格的大幅上涨,但部分地区看到需求放缓的迹象。虽然经济活动以温和的速度扩张,但有5个地方联储联系人指出对经济衰退风险增加的担忧。
美联储褐皮书:通胀持续高企,衰退风险影响经济前景
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","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美东时间7月13日周三,美联储发布了俗称“褐皮书”的地区经济调查报告,结果显示,自5月中旬以来,经济活动总体上以温和的速度增长,所有地区物价大幅上涨;部分地区看到需求放缓的迹象,一些地方指出对经济衰退风险增加的担忧。</p><p><b>经济温和扩张,住房需求减弱,供应链仍是问题</b></p><p>总体而言,虽然经济依然以温和的速度增长,但如6月褐皮书报告类似,各报告区对未来经济增长的前景大多持否定态度,预计未来6至12个月需求将进一步减弱。</p><p>从行业来看,<b>新车销售</b>受到库存水平持续走低影响仍然低迷;<b>酒旅行业</b>呈现健康态势,报告称商务和团体旅游有所上升;<b>制造业</b>活动好坏参半,许多地区报告供应链中断和劳动力短缺继续阻碍生产;<b>非金融服务企业</b>的需求稳定或略有增加,一些企业表示收入超过预期;市场对<b>能源产品</b>的需求仍然强劲,石油和天然气钻探活动回升,但生产仍然受到劳动力供应和关键部件的供应链瓶颈的限制。</p><p>此外,<b>住房方面</b>,住房需求明显减弱,因为人们对可负担性的担忧增加,导致销售量非季节性下降,致使库存略有增加,价格上涨较为温和。商业房地产的情况有所放缓,大多数地区的贷款需求参差不齐;一些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FISI\">金融机构</a>报告称,客户对循环信贷额度的使用有所增加,而其他机构报告说,由于房贷利率上升,住宅贷款需求减弱。</p><p><b>物价水平大幅上涨,近期略有放缓,仍在历史高位</b></p><p>报告指出,在所有报告涉及地区,物价都显出大幅上涨,不过有四分之三的地区指出,木材和钢材等建筑材料的价格有所缓和。</p><p>在广泛的通胀下,食品、商品和能源(特别是燃料)成本的增长仍然显著,部分地区报告称这些类别的价格通胀与最近几个月相比有所放缓,但仍然处于历史高位。此外,也有报告对未来需求降温表示担忧,由于食品和汽油价格上涨,家庭的可支配收入减少,消费者的支出有所减缓。</p><p>总体来说,企业物价定价能力是相对是稳定的,在一些行业,如旅游和酒店业,企业成功地将可观的价格增长转嫁给客户。大多数企业预计,定价压力至少会持续到今年年底。</p><p><b>劳动力供应略有改善,就业市场持续紧张</b></p><p>大多数地区报告称,就业率以温和的速度增长,总体情况仍然紧张。然而,几乎所有地区都指出,在对工人的需求减弱的情况下,劳动力供应情况略有改善,特别是在制造业和建筑业中。</p><p>工资增长方面,三分之一的地区表示,雇主正在考虑或已经给员工发放奖金以抵消与通货膨胀有关的成本,而在两个地区,工人要求加薪以抵消更高的成本。四分之一的地区表示工资增长在未来6个月内将保持高位,而少数地区指出工资压力预计将在今年晚些时候消退。</p><p>美联储褐皮书基于美联储12家地区银行通过收集区域性经济情况和前景汇总而此,每年出版8次。</p><p>周三,美国通胀数据再度超预期,加剧收益率曲线倒挂。日内2年期美债收益率进一步走高,与10年期国债的收益率的倒挂幅度进一步扩大至22个基点,创2000年以来的最高水平。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4f043a2cf292ce9d2ef20afd259f95\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储褐皮书:通胀持续高企,衰退风险影响经济前景\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-14 07:44 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664708><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美东时间7月13日周三,美联储发布了俗称“褐皮书”的地区经济调查报告,结果显示,自5月中旬以来,经济活动总体上以温和的速度增长,所有地区物价大幅上涨;部分地区看到需求放缓的迹象,一些地方指出对经济衰退风险增加的担忧。经济温和扩张,住房需求减弱,供应链仍是问题总体而言,虽然经济依然以温和的速度增长,但如6月褐皮书报告类似,各报告区对未来经济增长的前景大多持否定态度,预计未来6至12个月需求将进一步...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664708\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41f81b99b97a59da55dd70fd1af475cb","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664708","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2251616354","content_text":"美东时间7月13日周三,美联储发布了俗称“褐皮书”的地区经济调查报告,结果显示,自5月中旬以来,经济活动总体上以温和的速度增长,所有地区物价大幅上涨;部分地区看到需求放缓的迹象,一些地方指出对经济衰退风险增加的担忧。经济温和扩张,住房需求减弱,供应链仍是问题总体而言,虽然经济依然以温和的速度增长,但如6月褐皮书报告类似,各报告区对未来经济增长的前景大多持否定态度,预计未来6至12个月需求将进一步减弱。从行业来看,新车销售受到库存水平持续走低影响仍然低迷;酒旅行业呈现健康态势,报告称商务和团体旅游有所上升;制造业活动好坏参半,许多地区报告供应链中断和劳动力短缺继续阻碍生产;非金融服务企业的需求稳定或略有增加,一些企业表示收入超过预期;市场对能源产品的需求仍然强劲,石油和天然气钻探活动回升,但生产仍然受到劳动力供应和关键部件的供应链瓶颈的限制。此外,住房方面,住房需求明显减弱,因为人们对可负担性的担忧增加,导致销售量非季节性下降,致使库存略有增加,价格上涨较为温和。商业房地产的情况有所放缓,大多数地区的贷款需求参差不齐;一些金融机构报告称,客户对循环信贷额度的使用有所增加,而其他机构报告说,由于房贷利率上升,住宅贷款需求减弱。物价水平大幅上涨,近期略有放缓,仍在历史高位报告指出,在所有报告涉及地区,物价都显出大幅上涨,不过有四分之三的地区指出,木材和钢材等建筑材料的价格有所缓和。在广泛的通胀下,食品、商品和能源(特别是燃料)成本的增长仍然显著,部分地区报告称这些类别的价格通胀与最近几个月相比有所放缓,但仍然处于历史高位。此外,也有报告对未来需求降温表示担忧,由于食品和汽油价格上涨,家庭的可支配收入减少,消费者的支出有所减缓。总体来说,企业物价定价能力是相对是稳定的,在一些行业,如旅游和酒店业,企业成功地将可观的价格增长转嫁给客户。大多数企业预计,定价压力至少会持续到今年年底。劳动力供应略有改善,就业市场持续紧张大多数地区报告称,就业率以温和的速度增长,总体情况仍然紧张。然而,几乎所有地区都指出,在对工人的需求减弱的情况下,劳动力供应情况略有改善,特别是在制造业和建筑业中。工资增长方面,三分之一的地区表示,雇主正在考虑或已经给员工发放奖金以抵消与通货膨胀有关的成本,而在两个地区,工人要求加薪以抵消更高的成本。四分之一的地区表示工资增长在未来6个月内将保持高位,而少数地区指出工资压力预计将在今年晚些时候消退。美联储褐皮书基于美联储12家地区银行通过收集区域性经济情况和前景汇总而此,每年出版8次。周三,美国通胀数据再度超预期,加剧收益率曲线倒挂。日内2年期美债收益率进一步走高,与10年期国债的收益率的倒挂幅度进一步扩大至22个基点,创2000年以来的最高水平。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1612,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}