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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-12-08
Buy Confluent[Happy]
Confluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote>
Confluent stock dropped 7.7% in premarket trading after announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of
Confluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote>
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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-11-06
Way to go[强]
Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluence股票早盘飙升14%</blockquote>
Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations. Conflue
Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluence股票早盘飙升14%</blockquote>
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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-10-29
[弱]
This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>
The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for st
This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>
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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-09-29
Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.
Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>
Summary Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect
Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>
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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-09-25
[弱]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-09-24
$Equinix(EQIX)$
@venseliau
[强]
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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-09-21
[强]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-09-13
[强]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-09-11
Apple should have been a bigger man.
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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ThECROW
ThECROW
·
2021-09-11
[强]
Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>
Summary Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops. Stocks, options, commodities
Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>
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Confluent[Happy] ","listText":"Buy Confluent[Happy] ","text":"Buy Confluent[Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602353548","repostId":"1175631540","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175631540","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638971326,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175631540?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 21:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175631540","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Confluent stock dropped 7.7% in premarket trading after announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of","content":"<p>Confluent stock dropped 7.7% in premarket trading after announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of convertible senior notes.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据后，Confluence股价在盘前交易中下跌7.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d476c7b993aae8544efebc2be2798615\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Confluent, Inc.(NASDAQ: CFLT)</b>,the platform for data in motion, today announced its intent to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors,$1.0 billionaggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Confluent also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the Notes are first issued, up to an additional$100.0 millionaggregate principal amount of Notes.</p><p><blockquote><b>汇合公司（纳斯达克：CFLT）</b>data in motion平台今天宣布，根据市场状况和其他因素，打算以私募方式发行本金总额为10亿美元的2027年到期的可转换优先票据（“票据”）（“发行”）根据1933年证券法（经修订）（“证券法”）第144A条，向有理由相信是合格机构买家的人员。Confluent还打算授予票据的初始购买者选择权，可在票据首次发行之日起13天内额外购买最多1亿美元的票据本金总额。</blockquote></p><p> The Notes will be general unsecured obligations of Confluent and will accrue interest payable semiannually in arrears. The notes will be convertible into cash, shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock, at Confluent’s election. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Offering.</p><p><blockquote>该票据将是Confluence的一般无担保债务，并将每半年计息一次。根据Confluent的选择，这些票据将可转换为现金、Confluent A类普通股或现金和Confluent A类普通股的组合。票据的利率、初始兑换率和其他条款将在发行定价时确定。</blockquote></p><p> Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. Confluent expects to use the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Confluent may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the Option Counterparties (as defined below) and the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes and for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, Confluent does not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time.</p><p><blockquote>Confluence预计将使用此次发行的部分净收益来支付下述上限看涨期权交易的成本。Confluence预计将剩余的净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途。Confluent还可以将部分净收益用于收购或战略投资互补业务、产品、服务或技术。如果初始购买者行使购买额外票据的选择权，Confluence预计将使用出售额外票据的部分净收益与期权交易对手（定义如下）签订额外的上限看涨期权交易，剩余净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司目的，以及收购或战略投资补充业务、产品、服务或技术。然而，Confluence目前没有任何协议或承诺进行任何重大收购或投资。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with the pricing of the Notes, Confluent expects to enter into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Confluent’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments Confluent is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap.</p><p><blockquote>就票据定价而言，Confluence预计将与一名或多名初始购买者或其关联公司和/或其他金融机构（“期权交易对手”）签订有上限的看涨期权交易。受限制的看涨期权交易将涵盖Confluent最初作为票据基础的A类普通股的股份数量（根据惯例进行调整）。预计有上限的看涨期权交易通常会减少任何票据转换时对Confluence A类普通股的潜在稀释和/或抵消Confluence需要支付的超过已转换票据本金额的任何现金支付（视情况而定），此类减少和/或抵消受上限限制。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Confluent expects the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the trading price of the Notes at that time.</p><p><blockquote>在建立上限看涨期权交易的初始对冲时，Confluence预计期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司将就Confluence的A类普通股进行各种衍生交易和/或在票据定价的同时或之后不久购买Confluence的A类普通股股票，包括与票据中的某些投资者或从票据中的某些投资者（视情况而定）。此活动可能会增加（或减少）Confluent A类普通股的市场价格或当时票据的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling Confluent’s Class A common stock or other securities of Confluent in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 40 trading day period beginning on the 41st scheduled trading day prior to maturity of the Notes, or, to the extent Confluent exercises the relevant election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase, redemption or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the Notes which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, this could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司可以在票据定价后和票据到期前，通过签订或平仓与Confluence A类普通股相关的各种衍生品和/或在二级市场交易中购买或出售Confluence A类普通股或Confluence的其他证券来修改其对冲头寸（并且可能在票据到期前第41个预定交易日开始的40个交易日期间这样做，或者在任何回购、赎回或转换票据后，Confluence根据上限看涨期权交易行使相关选择的范围内）。该活动还可能导致或避免Confluent A类普通股或票据的市场价格上涨或下跌，这可能会影响票据持有人转换票据的能力，并且如果该活动发生在与票据转换相关的任何观察期内，这可能会影响股份数量（如果有）以及票据持有人在转换其票据时将收到的对价价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Notes and any shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold inthe United Statesabsent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.</p><p><blockquote>票据和票据转换后可能发行的Confluence A类普通股的任何股份尚未也不会根据《证券法》、任何州证券法或任何其他司法管辖区的证券法进行登记，除非进行了登记，否则不得在未经登记或适用豁免或不受《证券法》和其他适用证券法注册要求约束的交易中在美国发行或出售。</blockquote></p><p> This press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿既不是出售任何这些证券的要约，也不是购买任何这些证券的要约邀请，也不是在任何州或司法管辖区出售这些证券，在这些州或司法管辖区，此类要约、招揽或出售在注册或根据任何此类州或司法管辖区的证券法获得资格之前是非法的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent Announces Proposed $1.0 Billion Offering of Convertible Senior Notes<blockquote>Confluent宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-08 21:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Confluent stock dropped 7.7% in premarket trading after announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of convertible senior notes.</p><p><blockquote>在宣布拟发行10亿美元可转换优先票据后，Confluence股价在盘前交易中下跌7.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d476c7b993aae8544efebc2be2798615\" tg-width=\"850\" tg-height=\"620\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Confluent, Inc.(NASDAQ: CFLT)</b>,the platform for data in motion, today announced its intent to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors,$1.0 billionaggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Confluent also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the Notes are first issued, up to an additional$100.0 millionaggregate principal amount of Notes.</p><p><blockquote><b>汇合公司（纳斯达克：CFLT）</b>data in motion平台今天宣布，根据市场状况和其他因素，打算以私募方式发行本金总额为10亿美元的2027年到期的可转换优先票据（“票据”）（“发行”）根据1933年证券法（经修订）（“证券法”）第144A条，向有理由相信是合格机构买家的人员。Confluent还打算授予票据的初始购买者选择权，可在票据首次发行之日起13天内额外购买最多1亿美元的票据本金总额。</blockquote></p><p> The Notes will be general unsecured obligations of Confluent and will accrue interest payable semiannually in arrears. The notes will be convertible into cash, shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock, at Confluent’s election. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Offering.</p><p><blockquote>该票据将是Confluence的一般无担保债务，并将每半年计息一次。根据Confluent的选择，这些票据将可转换为现金、Confluent A类普通股或现金和Confluent A类普通股的组合。票据的利率、初始兑换率和其他条款将在发行定价时确定。</blockquote></p><p> Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. Confluent expects to use the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Confluent may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the Option Counterparties (as defined below) and the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes and for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, Confluent does not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time.</p><p><blockquote>Confluence预计将使用此次发行的部分净收益来支付下述上限看涨期权交易的成本。Confluence预计将剩余的净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司用途。Confluent还可以将部分净收益用于收购或战略投资互补业务、产品、服务或技术。如果初始购买者行使购买额外票据的选择权，Confluence预计将使用出售额外票据的部分净收益与期权交易对手（定义如下）签订额外的上限看涨期权交易，剩余净收益用于营运资金和其他一般公司目的，以及收购或战略投资补充业务、产品、服务或技术。然而，Confluence目前没有任何协议或承诺进行任何重大收购或投资。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with the pricing of the Notes, Confluent expects to enter into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Confluent’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments Confluent is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap.</p><p><blockquote>就票据定价而言，Confluence预计将与一名或多名初始购买者或其关联公司和/或其他金融机构（“期权交易对手”）签订有上限的看涨期权交易。受限制的看涨期权交易将涵盖Confluent最初作为票据基础的A类普通股的股份数量（根据惯例进行调整）。预计有上限的看涨期权交易通常会减少任何票据转换时对Confluence A类普通股的潜在稀释和/或抵消Confluence需要支付的超过已转换票据本金额的任何现金支付（视情况而定），此类减少和/或抵消受上限限制。</blockquote></p><p> In connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Confluent expects the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the trading price of the Notes at that time.</p><p><blockquote>在建立上限看涨期权交易的初始对冲时，Confluence预计期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司将就Confluence的A类普通股进行各种衍生交易和/或在票据定价的同时或之后不久购买Confluence的A类普通股股票，包括与票据中的某些投资者或从票据中的某些投资者（视情况而定）。此活动可能会增加（或减少）Confluent A类普通股的市场价格或当时票据的交易价格。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling Confluent’s Class A common stock or other securities of Confluent in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 40 trading day period beginning on the 41st scheduled trading day prior to maturity of the Notes, or, to the extent Confluent exercises the relevant election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase, redemption or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the Notes which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, this could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.</p><p><blockquote>此外，期权交易对手或其各自的关联公司可以在票据定价后和票据到期前，通过签订或平仓与Confluence A类普通股相关的各种衍生品和/或在二级市场交易中购买或出售Confluence A类普通股或Confluence的其他证券来修改其对冲头寸（并且可能在票据到期前第41个预定交易日开始的40个交易日期间这样做，或者在任何回购、赎回或转换票据后，Confluence根据上限看涨期权交易行使相关选择的范围内）。该活动还可能导致或避免Confluent A类普通股或票据的市场价格上涨或下跌，这可能会影响票据持有人转换票据的能力，并且如果该活动发生在与票据转换相关的任何观察期内，这可能会影响股份数量（如果有）以及票据持有人在转换其票据时将收到的对价价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Notes and any shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold inthe United Statesabsent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.</p><p><blockquote>票据和票据转换后可能发行的Confluence A类普通股的任何股份尚未也不会根据《证券法》、任何州证券法或任何其他司法管辖区的证券法进行登记，除非进行了登记，否则不得在未经登记或适用豁免或不受《证券法》和其他适用证券法注册要求约束的交易中在美国发行或出售。</blockquote></p><p> This press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.</p><p><blockquote>本新闻稿既不是出售任何这些证券的要约，也不是购买任何这些证券的要约邀请，也不是在任何州或司法管辖区出售这些证券，在这些州或司法管辖区，此类要约、招揽或出售在注册或根据任何此类州或司法管辖区的证券法获得资格之前是非法的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175631540","content_text":"Confluent stock dropped 7.7% in premarket trading after announcing proposed $1.0 billion offering of convertible senior notes.\n\nConfluent, Inc.(NASDAQ: CFLT),the platform for data in motion, today announced its intent to offer, subject to market conditions and other factors,$1.0 billionaggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2027 (the “Notes”) in a private placement (the “Offering”) to persons reasonably believed to be qualified institutional buyers pursuant to Rule 144A under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”). Confluent also intends to grant the initial purchasers of the Notes an option to purchase, within a 13-day period beginning on, and including, the date on which the Notes are first issued, up to an additional$100.0 millionaggregate principal amount of Notes.\nThe Notes will be general unsecured obligations of Confluent and will accrue interest payable semiannually in arrears. The notes will be convertible into cash, shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock or a combination of cash and shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock, at Confluent’s election. The interest rate, initial conversion rate and other terms of the Notes will be determined at the time of pricing of the Offering.\nConfluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the Offering to pay the cost of the capped call transactions described below. Confluent expects to use the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Confluent may also use a portion of the net proceeds for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. If the initial purchasers exercise their option to purchase additional Notes, Confluent expects to use a portion of the net proceeds from the sale of the additional Notes to enter into additional capped call transactions with the Option Counterparties (as defined below) and the remaining net proceeds for working capital and other general corporate purposes and for acquisitions of, or strategic investments in, complementary businesses, products, services, or technologies. However, Confluent does not have any agreements or commitments to enter into any material acquisitions or investments at this time.\nIn connection with the pricing of the Notes, Confluent expects to enter into capped call transactions with one or more of the initial purchasers or affiliates thereof and/or other financial institutions (the “Option Counterparties”). The capped call transactions will cover, subject to customary adjustments, the number of shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock initially underlying the Notes. The capped call transactions are expected generally to reduce the potential dilution to Confluent’s Class A common stock upon any conversion of Notes and/or offset any cash payments Confluent is required to make in excess of the principal amount of converted Notes, as the case may be, with such reduction and/or offset subject to a cap.\nIn connection with establishing their initial hedges of the capped call transactions, Confluent expects the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates will enter into various derivative transactions with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchase shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock concurrently with or shortly after the pricing of the Notes, including with, or from, as the case may be, certain investors in the Notes. This activity could increase (or reduce the size of any decrease in) the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the trading price of the Notes at that time.\nIn addition, the Option Counterparties or their respective affiliates may modify their hedge positions by entering into or unwinding various derivatives with respect to Confluent’s Class A common stock and/or purchasing or selling Confluent’s Class A common stock or other securities of Confluent in secondary market transactions following the pricing of the Notes and prior to the maturity of the Notes (and are likely to do so during the 40 trading day period beginning on the 41st scheduled trading day prior to maturity of the Notes, or, to the extent Confluent exercises the relevant election under the capped call transactions, following any repurchase, redemption or conversion of the Notes). This activity could also cause or avoid an increase or a decrease in the market price of Confluent’s Class A common stock or the Notes which could affect a noteholder’s ability to convert the Notes and, to the extent the activity occurs during any observation period related to a conversion of Notes, this could affect the number of shares, if any, and value of the consideration that a noteholder will receive upon conversion of its Notes.\nThe Notes and any shares of Confluent’s Class A common stock potentially issuable upon conversion of the Notes have not been and will not be registered under the Securities Act, any state securities laws or the securities laws of any other jurisdiction, and unless so registered, may not be offered or sold inthe United Statesabsent registration or an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act and other applicable securities laws.\nThis press release is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy any of these securities nor shall there be any sale of these securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such an offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to the registration or qualification thereof under the securities laws of any such state or jurisdiction.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CFLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2404,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842976372,"gmtCreate":1636128687399,"gmtModify":1636128687563,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Way to go[强] ","listText":"Way to go[强] ","text":"Way to go[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842976372","repostId":"1173116654","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1173116654","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636120291,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173116654?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 21:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluence股票早盘飙升14%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173116654","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.\n\nConflue","content":"<p>Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>季度业绩超出预期后，Confluence股价在早盘交易中飙升14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491afb60ce801feec7c28a82a51a62a3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Confluent reported quarterly losses of $(0.17) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.23) by 26.09 percent. The company reported quarterly sales of $102.57 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $90.66 million by 13.14 percent.</p><p><blockquote>Confluence报告季度亏损为每股(0.17)美元，比分析师普遍预期的(0.23)美元高出26.09%。该公司报告季度销售额为1.0257亿美元，比分析师普遍预期的9066万美元高出13.14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluence股票早盘飙升14%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nConfluent stock surged 14% in morning trading<blockquote>Confluence股票早盘飙升14%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-05 21:51</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.</p><p><blockquote>季度业绩超出预期后，Confluence股价在早盘交易中飙升14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491afb60ce801feec7c28a82a51a62a3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Confluent reported quarterly losses of $(0.17) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.23) by 26.09 percent. The company reported quarterly sales of $102.57 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $90.66 million by 13.14 percent.</p><p><blockquote>Confluence报告季度亏损为每股(0.17)美元，比分析师普遍预期的(0.23)美元高出26.09%。该公司报告季度销售额为1.0257亿美元，比分析师普遍预期的9066万美元高出13.14%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CFLT":"Confluent, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173116654","content_text":"Confluent stock surged 14% in morning trading after quarterly results beating expectations.\n\nConfluent reported quarterly losses of $(0.17) per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $(0.23) by 26.09 percent. The company reported quarterly sales of $102.57 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $90.66 million by 13.14 percent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CFLT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2029,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857813129,"gmtCreate":1635517309750,"gmtModify":1635517313183,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[弱] ","listText":"[弱] ","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857813129","repostId":"1147983155","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147983155","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635484615,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147983155?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-29 13:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147983155","media":"Barrons","summary":"The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for st","content":"<p>The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场显示出对经济增长的一些担忧。这可能会在短期内给股市带来波涛汹涌：这是一个潜在的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.</p><p><blockquote>收益率曲线近期趋于平坦。10年期国债收益率已从一周前触及的2021年下半年高点1.702%降至1.556%，表明市场对经济需求不太乐观，也不太担心其可能带来的长期通胀。部分由强劲需求刺激的通胀上升意味着债券投资者需要更高的收益率，以避免因债务固定付款而实际亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，2年期国债收益率已从一周前的0.46%升至0.49%，这表明市场认为当前整个经济的价格飙升足以迫使美联储加息。这将逐渐减少需求和通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Figures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>周四公布的数据显示，经济增长放缓幅度超出了许多人的预期。经季节调整后，第三季度国内生产总值较第二季度增长2%，而FactSet调查的经济学家普遍看涨期权为增长3.5%。第二季度增长6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”</p><p><blockquote>公民银行全球市场主管托尼·贝迪基安(Tony Bedikian)表示：“显然，曲线变平非常显着。”“这主要是由过去几周飙升的美联储加息预期推动的。”</blockquote></p><p> The difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>2年期和10年期国债收益率之差已从一周前的约1.24个百分点降至1.07个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the S&P 500 have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>股市似乎已经注意到了债市的信号。标准普尔500指数的涨幅已经放缓。该指数过去一周上涨了不到1%，而截至一周前收盘，较10月4日（近期暴跌的低点）上涨了近6%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.</p><p><blockquote>如果收益率曲线保持平坦一段时间，涨幅放缓可能会变成抛售。这将意味着市场对经济增长前景正在恶化更有信心。</blockquote></p><p> “If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.</p><p><blockquote>贝迪基安表示：“如果新年伊始，收益率曲线仍处于非常平坦的环境中，那么一旦美联储最终开始加息，经济可能会放缓，这将会引起一些人的担忧。”。</blockquote></p><p> That isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.</p><p><blockquote>这不是最有可能的情况。华尔街大多数人预计收益率曲线将扩大。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，鉴于长期通胀预期高于2%，随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率至少可以轻松升至接近2%。部分原因是，尽管经济前景有所减弱，但仍然乐观。</blockquote></p><p> A steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.</p><p><blockquote>对于股票来说，更陡的收益率曲线将是一个好兆头，尤其是对经济更敏感的周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，银行和工业公司的股价下跌。SPDR S&P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）下跌略高于2%，工业精选行业SPDR ETF(XLI)下跌约0.5%。这些可能值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> “Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)在最近的一份研究报告中表示：“淡化技术性收益率曲线趋平的趋势，逢低买入周期性资产。”投资者应该注意债券市场发出的信息，但要持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis Indicator Is Signaling Trouble Ahead for the Stock Market<blockquote>该指标预示着股市即将遇到麻烦</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-29 13:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场显示出对经济增长的一些担忧。这可能会在短期内给股市带来波涛汹涌：这是一个潜在的买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.</p><p><blockquote>收益率曲线近期趋于平坦。10年期国债收益率已从一周前触及的2021年下半年高点1.702%降至1.556%，表明市场对经济需求不太乐观，也不太担心其可能带来的长期通胀。部分由强劲需求刺激的通胀上升意味着债券投资者需要更高的收益率，以避免因债务固定付款而实际亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，2年期国债收益率已从一周前的0.46%升至0.49%，这表明市场认为当前整个经济的价格飙升足以迫使美联储加息。这将逐渐减少需求和通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Figures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>周四公布的数据显示，经济增长放缓幅度超出了许多人的预期。经季节调整后，第三季度国内生产总值较第二季度增长2%，而FactSet调查的经济学家普遍看涨期权为增长3.5%。第二季度增长6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”</p><p><blockquote>公民银行全球市场主管托尼·贝迪基安(Tony Bedikian)表示：“显然，曲线变平非常显着。”“这主要是由过去几周飙升的美联储加息预期推动的。”</blockquote></p><p> The difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>2年期和10年期国债收益率之差已从一周前的约1.24个百分点降至1.07个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the S&P 500 have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.</p><p><blockquote>股市似乎已经注意到了债市的信号。标准普尔500指数的涨幅已经放缓。该指数过去一周上涨了不到1%，而截至一周前收盘，较10月4日（近期暴跌的低点）上涨了近6%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.</p><p><blockquote>如果收益率曲线保持平坦一段时间，涨幅放缓可能会变成抛售。这将意味着市场对经济增长前景正在恶化更有信心。</blockquote></p><p> “If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.</p><p><blockquote>贝迪基安表示：“如果新年伊始，收益率曲线仍处于非常平坦的环境中，那么一旦美联储最终开始加息，经济可能会放缓，这将会引起一些人的担忧。”。</blockquote></p><p> That isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.</p><p><blockquote>这不是最有可能的情况。华尔街大多数人预计收益率曲线将扩大。根据圣路易斯联储的数据，鉴于长期通胀预期高于2%，随着时间的推移，10年期国债收益率至少可以轻松升至接近2%。部分原因是，尽管经济前景有所减弱，但仍然乐观。</blockquote></p><p> A steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.</p><p><blockquote>对于股票来说，更陡的收益率曲线将是一个好兆头，尤其是对经济更敏感的周期性股票。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周，银行和工业公司的股价下跌。SPDR S&P Bank ETF（股票代码：KBE）下跌略高于2%，工业精选行业SPDR ETF(XLI)下跌约0.5%。这些可能值得购买。</blockquote></p><p> “Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通首席全球市场策略师马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)在最近的一份研究报告中表示：“淡化技术性收益率曲线趋平的趋势，逢低买入周期性资产。”投资者应该注意债券市场发出的信息，但要持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-yield-curve-bonds-51635440287?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-yield-curve-bonds-51635440287?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147983155","content_text":"The bond market is signaling some concern over economic growth. That could spell rough waters for stocks in the near term: a potential buying opportunity.\nThe yield curve has flattened recently. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 1.556% from its 2021 second-half high of 1.702%, hit a week ago, signifying that markets are less optimistic about economic demand and less concerned about the long-term inflation it could bring. Higher inflation, spurred in part by strong demand, means bond investors need higher yields to avoid losing money in real terms on the fixed payments they receive on the debt.\nThe 2-year yield, meanwhile, has risen to 0.49% from 0.46% a week ago, signaling that markets see the current surge in prices across the economy as lasting enough to force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. That would gradually reduce demand and inflation.\nFigures released Thursday show economic growth is slowing more than many people expected. In the third quarter, gross domestic product increased 2% from the second on a seasonally adjusted annual basis, while the consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet had been for a 3.5% increase. Growth in the second quarter was 6.7%.\n“Clearly the curve flattening has been significant,” said Tony Bedikian, head of global markets at Citizens Banks. “It’s primarily driven by Fed rate hike expectations that have skyrocketed in the past few weeks.”\nThe difference in yield between 2-year and 10-year debt has fallen to 1.07 percentage points from about 1.24 points a week ago.\nThe stock market seems to have taken note of the bond market’s signal. Gains in the S&P 500 have slowed down. The index is up less than 1% in the past week, while it had gained just under 6% from its level on Oct. 4, the low point in a recent slump, through the close of trading a week ago.\nThe slowdown in gains could turn into a selloff if the yield curve remains flat for a little while longer. That would signify that markets are more confident that the economic growth outlook is deteriorating.\n“If we get to the beginning of the new year and we’re still in a very flat yield curve environment, it’s going to raise some eyebrows that maybe there is an economic slowdown once the Fed eventually does start to hike,” Bedikian said.\nThat isn’t the most likely scenario. Most on Wall Street expect the yield curve to expand. The 10 year yield—at the least—could easily rise to close to 2% over time, given that long-term inflation expectations are above 2%, according to St. Louis Fed data. That is partly because, although the economic outlook has weakened, it remains positive.\nA steeper yield curve would be a good sign for stocks, especially the more economically sensitive, cyclical ones.\nShares of banks and industrial companies have fallen in the past week. The SPDR S&P Bank ETF (ticker: KBE) is down just over 2% and the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLI) has fallen about 0.5%. Those could be worth buying.\n“Fade the technical yield curve flattening and buy the dip in cyclical assets,” Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, said in a recent research note. Investors should note the message the bond market has been sending, but take it with a grain of salt.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862569073,"gmtCreate":1632891004819,"gmtModify":1632891004951,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","listText":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","text":"Actually it is a cycle of moods. Much like mood swings.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862569073","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li> <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li> <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i> <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i> <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>– <i>Investopedia</i> Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i> <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i> <ul> <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li> <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近顶峰时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li> <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略会自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li> <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li> <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i> <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i> <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>– <i>Investopedia</i> Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i> <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i> <ul> <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li> <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近顶峰时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li> <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略会自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861276555,"gmtCreate":1632507088777,"gmtModify":1632714651506,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[弱] ","listText":"[弱] ","text":"[弱]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861276555","repostId":"1187521937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863709699,"gmtCreate":1632429736111,"gmtModify":1632728706661,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQIX\">$Equinix(EQIX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4093922341007940\">@venseliau</a>[强] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQIX\">$Equinix(EQIX)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4093922341007940\">@venseliau</a>[强] ","text":"$Equinix(EQIX)$@venseliau[强]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/204725148501739d3bbb96fb96c1762a","width":"720","height":"1593"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863709699","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869309893,"gmtCreate":1632239920112,"gmtModify":1632801821693,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869309893","repostId":"1178869256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888631008,"gmtCreate":1631492390704,"gmtModify":1631889101743,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888631008","repostId":"2167305804","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881114722,"gmtCreate":1631316850766,"gmtModify":1631883964302,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","listText":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","text":"Apple should have been a bigger man.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881114722","repostId":"2166711943","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881355307,"gmtCreate":1631305717409,"gmtModify":1631889101748,"author":{"id":"3583650394724849","authorId":"3583650394724849","name":"ThECROW","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3583650394724849","idStr":"3583650394724849"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[强] ","listText":"[强] ","text":"[强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881355307","repostId":"1148605188","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148605188","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631265518,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148605188?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-10 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148605188","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li> <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li> <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li> <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li> <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li> <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li> <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li> <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li> <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li> <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li> <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li> <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li> <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li> <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Crash September 2021: What You Should Know<blockquote>2021年9月比特币坠机事件：您应该知道什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-10 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.</li> <li>Stocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.</li> <li>If you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</li> </ul> Yesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>比特币将成为比特币，桶店将成为桶店。</li><li>股票、期权、大宗商品和外汇与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻。</li><li>如果你在crypto，你需要两种策略来处理崩溃。</li></ul>昨天（2021年9月7日）比特币崩溃了，当我写这篇文章的时候，它又在飙升。作为空头，这对我来说并不奇怪，但对许多预计比特币将不间断地直奔10万美元的多头来说却是一个重大冲击。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.</p><p><blockquote>比特币受到波动性的困扰/祝福，毫无疑问，如果它没有巨大的波动性，它就不会成为现在的巨型品牌，加密也不会成为永远改变金融服务的金融地震。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’</p><p><blockquote>市场是赌场；赌徒喜欢赌博，赌场也喜欢赌徒，并确保他们尽可能以有利可图的方式容纳玩家。股票、期权、商品、外汇，它们与加密货币没有什么不同，因为它们充满了崩溃、欺诈和丑闻，赌桌也是一样的...“来玩杠杆，来玩止损，这可能是你的幸运日。”</blockquote></p><p> Edwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.</p><p><blockquote>埃德温·勒费夫尔在1923年写了一本关于著名交易员/投机者/赌徒杰西·利弗莫尔的经典交易书，名为《股票经营者的回忆》。当时的“桶店”骗局和1890-1930年左右的总体交易环境今天基本保持不变（…但是，但是，但是想想我们现在所有的监管…）。利弗莫尔是一位才华横溢的交易者，当他失去一切时，他自杀了，这是交易者注定要做的——由他们的交易对手和数学来做的。</blockquote></p><p> Leverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.</p><p><blockquote>杠杆和止损只是“桶店”等市场参与者如何将您的账户余额转移到他们的账户余额中的一个例子。隐藏费用、庞氏骗局、“拉高转储”等所有相同的金融诈骗在加密货币、股票等领域仍然随处可见。哪里有资源，哪里就有捕食者。</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:</p><p><blockquote>因此，加密货币的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。把这个短语写成这样：</blockquote></p><p> So, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.</p><p><blockquote>因此，______的疯狂崩溃是可以预料的，甚至可能是必然的。</blockquote></p><p> Fill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.</p><p><blockquote>填写你认为合适的空白：股票、债券、房地产、美元、黄金、垃圾债券…它会很合适。</blockquote></p><p> Crashing is what markets do.</p><p><blockquote>崩盘是市场的表现。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果你想玩加密货币，或者在任何金融市场，你需要两种应对崩溃的策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Strategy 1) What not to do</b></p><p><blockquote><b>策略1）不要做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Do not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.</li> <li>Do not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.</li> <li>Do not hold positions for no good reason.</li> <li>Be prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one</li> <li>If you are<b>certain</b>a crash is underway, do not hold and hope,<i>sell</i>.</li> </ol> <b>Strategy 2) What to do</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果有的话，不要携带太多杠杆。如果一种工具不稳定，根本不要使用杠杆。</li><li>不要在另一方的平台上持有止损。</li><li>不要无缘无故持仓。</li><li>如果您陷入其中，请做好在崩盘后持有头寸的准备</li><li>如果你是<b>某些</b>崩盘正在进行，不要抱着希望，<i>出售</i>.</li></ol><b>策略2）做什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Never stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.</li> <li>Buy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.</li> <li>If you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.</li> </ol> A crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>永远不要停止寻找下一次崩溃。这是不可避免的。一个6万美元的BTC就是两个3万美元的BTC。</li><li>购买崩溃，但只有在它发生并且尘埃落定之后。这是对一个投资者的终极考验。</li><li>如果您必须在崩盘期间进行交易，请确保您可以依靠您的提供商在最重要的时候不会将您拒之门外（股票和加密货币都是如此）。如果你不能依赖你的服务提供商，就不要玩。崩溃期间没有客户服务。</li></ol>崩盘是指一种沉闷的资产下跌25%，但任何辛辣的资产（如加密货币）下跌50%-75%，市场蓝筹股工具以外的资产下跌90%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What next?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>接下来呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Here is the chart:</p><p><blockquote>图表如下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e84d0c18312986bee801a102afc9dd6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">I’m still a bear<i>but</i>I think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.</p><p><blockquote>我还是只熊<i>但</i>我认为最近的反弹在很大程度上是由中国的社会打压推动的，比特币和其他加密货币是一种将资本从发展中的独裁噩梦中转移出去的方式；这是一场噩梦，即使是想玩电脑游戏的孩子也无法逃脱意识形态的束缚。这一新发展的影响可能会被证明是极其强大的，对许多人来说不是一件好事，但对crypto来说，它可能非常强大。</blockquote></p><p> However, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果没有这种顺风或其他地缘政治概念，我预计比特币将跌破20,000美元，但市场不听我的。就像每一次看涨期权一样，你必须根据所发生的事情来衡量你的猜测。几个月前，我制作了一张类似的图表，显示了如上所述的牛市和熊市趋势。我按照我预期的走势徘徊在熊市趋势，比特币就像变魔术一样在牛市趋势上上涨。猜测就是这样，你必须相信你所看到的，而不是你所想的。</blockquote></p><p> The above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.</p><p><blockquote>上述趋势将因此发展，我仍然看跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么办？</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.</p><p><blockquote>黄金法则是，如果你认为你知道，你不知道，所以停下来。如果你知道你知道，那就继续。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically:</p><p><blockquote>具体来说：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>If you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.</li> <li>If you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions</li> <li>If you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.</li> <li>If you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.</li> <li>If you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).</li> <li>If you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.</li> </ol> <b>What am I doing?</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果你是一个Hodl’er继续美元成本平均。如果它真的融化了，那么也许可以添加一些额外的菲亚特。</li><li>如果您不知道该做什么并且需要询问，那么出售并保存您的菲亚特以备您确定自己的头寸时使用</li><li>如果您想逢低买入，请确保您想持有，因为您可能需要长期持有。如果你想翻转，你应该等待，因为这一步可能会走得更低。</li><li>如果你想交易，就要反对极端的交易，但前提是它们会让你眼花缭乱。确保您使用的平台不会阻塞，并且可以在极端音量下执行。</li><li>如果你像我一样正在寻找重返校园的机会，这还不是它。</li><li>如果你是一个新手交易者，研究一下这一点。崩盘是真正的交易者和投资者大赚一笔的地方，因为这是新手输光的地方。</li></ol><b>我在做什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> ‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.</p><p><blockquote>“霍德林”我有多少“不稳定的硬币”。我正在关注当这一举措失败时什么看起来很有价值，同时目前专注于中型股代币。如果这是这个周期的大崩盘，在一切结束后，一两周后，我会从废墟中挑选一个投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.</p><p><blockquote>在我写这篇文章的时候，比特币又掉了1000美元，在我编辑这篇文章的时候又跳了1000美元。最大的收获是比特币将成为比特币，加密货币将永远崩溃和登月，这也是它将永远是一个吸引数百万人的巨大品牌的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，比特币将走得更高，但这不会是一条平坦或短暂的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","01499":"欧科云链","01611":"新火科技控股","GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4454069-bitcoin-crash-september-2021-what-you-should-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148605188","content_text":"Summary\n\nBitcoin will be Bitcoin and bucket shops will be bucket shops.\nStocks, options, commodities and forex are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal.\nIf you're in crypto you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\n\nYesterday (7thSeptember 2021) Bitcoin crashed, and as I write it is spiking down again. As a bear this is no surprise to me, but it is a major shock to many bulls who are expecting Bitcoin to go straight to $100,000 without a halt.\nBitcoin is plagued/blessed with volatility and, make no mistake, if it did not have huge volatility, it would not be the giant brand it has become and crypto would not be the financial earthquake that is changing financial services forever.\nMarkets are casinos; gamblers love to gamble and casinos love gamblers and ensure that they accommodate the players in as profitable a way as they can. Stocks, options, commodities, forex, they are no different from crypto in that they are filled with crashes, skulduggery and scandal, and the gaming tables are the same... ‘come play with leverage, come play with stop losses, this could be your lucky day.’\nEdwin Lefevre wrote the classic trading book in 1923 called ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ about famous trader/speculator/gambler Jesse Livermore. The ‘bucket shop’ scams of the time and the general trading environment around 1890-1930 remain basically unchanged today (…but, but, but think of all the regulation we have now…). Livermore was an incredibly talented trader that committed suicide when he lost it all, as traders are fated - by their counterparties and math - to do.\nLeverage and stop losses are just one example of how market actors like ‘bucket shops’ drive your account balances into their account balances. All the same finance scams of hidden charges, Ponzi schemes, ‘pump and dumps’ and so on are still everywhere to be seen in crypto, stocks etc. Where there are resources there are predators.\nSo, a wild crash in crypto is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed. Take this phrase and write it like this:\nSo, a wild crash in ______ is to be expected and is perhaps even guaranteed.\nFill the blank as you see fit: stocks, bonds, property, the dollar, gold, junk bonds…. It will fit in just fine.\nCrashing is what markets do.\nTherefore, if you want to play in crypto, or for that matter in any financial market, you need two strategies for dealing with crashes.\nStrategy 1) What not to do\n\nDo not carry much leverage if any. If an instrument is volatile do not carry leverage at all.\nDo not hold stop losses on another party’s platforms.\nDo not hold positions for no good reason.\nBe prepared to hold your positions after a crash if you get caught and stuck in one\nIf you arecertaina crash is underway, do not hold and hope,sell.\n\nStrategy 2) What to do\n\nNever stop searching out the next crash. It is inevitable. One BTC at $60,000 is two BTC at $30,000.\nBuy the crash but only well after it’s happened and the dust is settling. This is the ultimate test of an investor.\nIf you must trade during a crash, make sure you can depend on your providers not shuttering you in or out when it matters most (as true in stocks as in crypto). If you cannot depend on your service provider do not play. There is no customer service during a crash.\n\nA crash is a 25% drop in a dull asset but 50%-75% in anything spicy like crypto and 90% outside the blue chip instruments of a market.\nWhat next?\nHere is the chart:\nI’m still a bearbutI think the recent rally is heavily driven by the social clampdown in China with Bitcoin and other cryptos a way of expatriating capital away from a developing authoritarian nightmare; a nightmare where even kids who want to play computer games can’t escape the boot of ideology. The impact of this new development may prove to be extremely potent and not in a good way for many, but for crypto it could be very strong.\nHowever, without that tailwind or other geopolitical conniptions I would expect Bitcoin to go under $20,000 but markets don’t listen to me. Like with every call, you must measure your speculation against what transpired. I produced a similar chart a few months ago showing the bull and the bear trend like the above. I hovered to the bear trend as the move I expected, and up went Bitcoin exactly on the bull trend as if by magic. Speculation is just that, and you have to believe what you see not what you think.\nThe above trends will therefore develop, and I remain a bear.\nWhat to do?\nThe golden rule is if you think you know, you don’t, so stop. If you know you know then proceed.\nSpecifically:\n\nIf you are a Hodl’er continue to dollar cost average in. If it really does melt down then perhaps drop some extra fiat in.\nIf you don’t know what to do and need to ask then sell and save your fiat for when you are certain of your positions\nIf you want to buy the dip be sure you want to hold because you might need to Hodl for a long time. If you are looking to flip you should wait because this move could go way lower.\nIf you want to trade, look to go against extreme moves but only when they make your eyes bug out. Make sure the platform you use won’t choke and can execute under extreme volume.\nIf you are looking for a re-entry - like me - this isn’t it (yet).\nIf you are a tyro trader, study every tick of this. Crashes are where the real traders and investors make their killings because this is where the novices lose their shirts.\n\nWhat am I doing?\n‘Hodling’ what little ‘unstable coins’ I have. I am watching out for what will look great value when this move capitulates while focusing on midcap tokens for now. If this is the big crash of this cycle, after it’s all over and a week or two later, I’ll be picking a portfolio from the rubble.\nBitcoin dropped another $1000 while I wrote this article and jumped $1000 while I edited it. The big take away is Bitcoin will be Bitcoin and crypto will always crash and moon and that is one of the reasons it will always be a huge brand fascinating millions.\nLong term, Bitcoin will go a lot higher but it will not be a smooth or short road.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01611":0.9,"01499":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"GBTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}