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kkchang
kkchang
·
2021-12-21
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外媒头条：曼钦提出对拜登经济法案的修改建议
土耳其里拉上演疯狂过山车 埃尔多安新政大幅拉升里拉汇率土耳其里拉飙升，从纪录低点反弹。追踪的31种主要货币中，里拉周一涨幅居首。埃尔多安政府周一宣布了一系列措施，其中包括推出一项新的计划，保护储蓄额免受本币波动的影响。埃尔多安在安卡拉主持召开内阁会议后表示，如果里拉兑硬通货的跌幅超过银行承诺的利率，政府将弥补里拉存款持有人的损失。“当前的疫情状况极其难以举办全球性面对面的会议，”WEF表示。
外媒头条：曼钦提出对拜登经济法案的修改建议
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kkchang
kkchang
·
2021-12-16
Is it a good time for SIA?
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kkchang
kkchang
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2021-12-07
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非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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kkchang
kkchang
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2021-10-17
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kkchang
kkchang
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2021-10-16
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kkchang
kkchang
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2021-10-15
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kkchang
kkchang
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2021-10-11
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What To Watch As Third-Quarter Earnings Season Begins?<blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的开始，有什么值得关注的？</blockquote>
(Oct 11) The Third-quarter earnings season ramps up in earnest this week with a packed schedule of m
What To Watch As Third-Quarter Earnings Season Begins?<blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的开始，有什么值得关注的？</blockquote>
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kkchang
kkchang
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2021-10-06
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kkchang
kkchang
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2021-10-03
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kkchang
kkchang
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2021-09-30
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U.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>在达美航空推动的低迷之后，美国经济有望加速</blockquote>
Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but e
U.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>在达美航空推动的低迷之后，美国经济有望加速</blockquote>
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referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>曼钦提出对拜登经济法案的修改建议 抨击白宫和党内有人对他霸凌</b></p>\n<p>美国民主党参议员曼钦周一概述了拜登经济法案需做出哪些改变才可能赢得他的支持，此外他还对攻击他的白宫工作人员和其他民主党人士予以了抨击。</p>\n<p>在接受西弗吉尼亚州一家电台采访时，曼钦给出其对经济法案的修改路线图。拜登和民主党计划明年1月国会休会归来后通过该项法案。曼钦重申，不能为了压低总成本就推出一个包含不同社会支出项目的大杂烩法案。</p>\n<p>一天前，白宫指责他出尔反尔，违反对总统和其他民主党人的承诺，但曼钦指责白宫工作人员持续几个月来不断推动他一直反对的法案条款，尽管拜登承诺重新协商。</p>\n<p>他说，“不是总统，是白宫的工作人员”。</p>\n<p>曼钦表示，他支持的法案必须真正带来美国税制改革，使纳税变得更加公平，而且对处方药的降价程度也要比目前法案更大更广。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a5bb4066461839c74c728bb7b29489\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"405\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>土耳其里拉上演疯狂过山车 埃尔多安新政大幅拉升里拉汇率</b></p>\n<p>土耳其里拉飙升，从纪录低点反弹。</p>\n<p>里拉兑美元汇率一度上涨25%至1美元兑12.28里拉，盘中里拉曾触及纪录低点18.36。 追踪的31种主要货币中，里拉周一涨幅居首。</p>\n<p>埃尔多安政府周一宣布了一系列措施，其中包括推出一项新的计划，保护储蓄额免受本币波动的影响。埃尔多安在安卡拉主持召开内阁会议后表示，如果里拉兑硬通货的跌幅超过银行承诺的利率，政府将弥补里拉存款持有人的损失。</p>\n<p>这些措施旨在缓解散户投资者对美元的需求，结束里拉持续三个月的动荡。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>外汇策略师Brendan McKenna表示，“此举可能对里拉有帮助，但我认为这取决于政府的公信力，以及储户是否认为这是一项切实可行的政策。目前，土耳其的政府机构没有很多信誉，所以要博得里储户的信任可能并非易事”。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/badf05c326b5da77467dad6f86c76c6a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"423\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>全球掀起新一轮疫情 冬季达沃斯论坛连续第二年被迫改期</b></p>\n<p>世界经济论坛（WEF）将推迟举办下月的达沃斯年会，由于瑞士和全球各地掀起新一轮疫情，会议的举办连续第二年遇挫。</p>\n<p>会议原定于1月17-21日举办；WEF在声明中称，围绕omicron变异株“持续的不确定性”迫使其进行重新考虑，现在计划在初夏举行会议。</p>\n<p>“当前的疫情状况极其难以举办全球性面对面的会议，”WEF表示。“尽管会议实行严格的卫生规定，omicron的传播性及其对旅行和人员流动的影响使得延期成为必要。”</p>\n<p>就在上周，WEF的官员还表示，鉴于瑞士开放国际旅行，且可以提供定期检测，因此对会议的举办有信心。</p>\n<p>但是，由于出现了快速传播的omicron，上述计划面临威胁。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9382a2e10ac9e0880a4cd6d25d5dbed\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"407\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>2021年全球并购交易活动首次突破5万亿美元 创历史纪录</b></p>\n<p>全球并购（M&A）活动在2021年打破了历史纪录，因大量资本和天价估值助长了疯狂的交易水平。</p>\n<p>Dealogic的数据显示，全球并购活动价值有史以来首次突破5万亿美元。截至12月16日，并购交易额增长63%，达到5.63万亿美元，轻松超过了2007年金融危机前4.42万亿美元的记录。</p>\n<p>科技和医疗保健通常占并购市场的最大份额，在2021年再次居首，部分原因是去年被压抑的需求，当时并购活动步伐因新冠疫情对全球金融的影响。</p>\n<p>企业争先恐后地通过股票或债券发行筹集资金，大型企业利用繁荣的股票市场将自家股票作为收购货币。此外，尽管存在通胀压力等潜在逆风，但强劲的企业盈利和整体良好的经济前景使企业CEO们有信心进行大型、变革性的交易。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a75cab9e1fa212afe8ac614f75cb9b0a\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"352\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>试验显示Moderna加强针可将针对omicron的抗体水平提高36倍</b></p>\n<p>Moderna Inc．表示，接种其新冠疫苗第三针可提高针对omicron变异株的抗体水平，公司称，虽说正在研发专门针对该毒株的疫苗，但这一结果令人安心。</p>\n<p>Moderna周一在声明中指出，接种50微克--加强针授权剂量--可令中和抗体水平提高36倍。公司还使用100微克的剂量进行试验，与接种最初两剂疫苗相比，抗体水平提高了82倍。</p>\n<p>当前，各家企业正在力争弄清各自的疫苗对新毒株效果如何，并评估是否需要新的疫苗来遏制其传播。辉瑞公司和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>本月早些时候表示，实验室初步研究显示，接种其两剂疫苗者对omicron的抗体下降了24倍，因此可能需要接种第三针，来对抗该毒株。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3bdb571f289d1c0b320275f19660e74\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>甲骨文重金砸入医疗保健行业 以283亿美元收购Cerner</b></p>\n<p>甲骨文同意以大约283亿美元的代价收购医疗记录系统供应商Cerner Corp．，为这家软件制造商带来医疗保健行业的广泛客户基础，提振其云计算和数据库业务。</p>\n<p>甲骨文周一公告称，将以每股95美元现金收购Cerner。这是甲骨文历史上最大的全现金交易。</p>\n<p>甲骨文首席执行官Safra Catz表示，这笔收购将在完成交易后的第一个完整财年立即增加甲骨文的调整后收益，并从第二财年开始贡献更多利润。两家公司表示，交易预计将于明年完成。</p>\n<p>作为营收排名全球第二的软件制造商，甲骨文以数据库产品闻名，近年来在云计算领域一直难有进展，远远落后于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>等行业领军企业。根据市场研究机构IDC的数据，Cerner交易给甲骨文带来了医疗保健行业的巨大技术立足点——预计到2023年，该行业将在云基础设施和软件上要投入158亿美元。</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：曼钦提出对拜登经济法案的修改建议</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：曼钦提出对拜登经济法案的修改建议\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-21 07:07 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-21/doc-ikyakumx5387993.shtml><strong>新浪美股</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、曼钦提出对拜登经济法案的修改建议 抨击白宫和党内有人对他霸凌\n\n\n2、土耳其里拉上演疯狂过山车 埃尔多安新政大幅拉升里拉汇率\n\n\n3、全球掀起新一轮疫情 冬季达沃斯论坛连续第二年被迫改期\n\n\n4、2021年全球并购交易活动首次突破5万亿美元 创历史纪录\n\n\n5、试验显示Moderna加强针可将针对omicron的抗体水平提高36倍\n\n\n6、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-21/doc-ikyakumx5387993.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1a5bb4066461839c74c728bb7b29489","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4538":"云计算",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4528":"SaaS概念"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-12-21/doc-ikyakumx5387993.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2193360811","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：\n\n1、曼钦提出对拜登经济法案的修改建议 抨击白宫和党内有人对他霸凌\n\n\n2、土耳其里拉上演疯狂过山车 埃尔多安新政大幅拉升里拉汇率\n\n\n3、全球掀起新一轮疫情 冬季达沃斯论坛连续第二年被迫改期\n\n\n4、2021年全球并购交易活动首次突破5万亿美元 创历史纪录\n\n\n5、试验显示Moderna加强针可将针对omicron的抗体水平提高36倍\n\n\n6、甲骨文重金砸入医疗保健行业 以283亿美元收购Cerner\n\n\n曼钦提出对拜登经济法案的修改建议 抨击白宫和党内有人对他霸凌\n美国民主党参议员曼钦周一概述了拜登经济法案需做出哪些改变才可能赢得他的支持，此外他还对攻击他的白宫工作人员和其他民主党人士予以了抨击。\n在接受西弗吉尼亚州一家电台采访时，曼钦给出其对经济法案的修改路线图。拜登和民主党计划明年1月国会休会归来后通过该项法案。曼钦重申，不能为了压低总成本就推出一个包含不同社会支出项目的大杂烩法案。\n一天前，白宫指责他出尔反尔，违反对总统和其他民主党人的承诺，但曼钦指责白宫工作人员持续几个月来不断推动他一直反对的法案条款，尽管拜登承诺重新协商。\n他说，“不是总统，是白宫的工作人员”。\n曼钦表示，他支持的法案必须真正带来美国税制改革，使纳税变得更加公平，而且对处方药的降价程度也要比目前法案更大更广。\n\n土耳其里拉上演疯狂过山车 埃尔多安新政大幅拉升里拉汇率\n土耳其里拉飙升，从纪录低点反弹。\n里拉兑美元汇率一度上涨25%至1美元兑12.28里拉，盘中里拉曾触及纪录低点18.36。 追踪的31种主要货币中，里拉周一涨幅居首。\n埃尔多安政府周一宣布了一系列措施，其中包括推出一项新的计划，保护储蓄额免受本币波动的影响。埃尔多安在安卡拉主持召开内阁会议后表示，如果里拉兑硬通货的跌幅超过银行承诺的利率，政府将弥补里拉存款持有人的损失。\n这些措施旨在缓解散户投资者对美元的需求，结束里拉持续三个月的动荡。\n富国银行外汇策略师Brendan McKenna表示，“此举可能对里拉有帮助，但我认为这取决于政府的公信力，以及储户是否认为这是一项切实可行的政策。目前，土耳其的政府机构没有很多信誉，所以要博得里储户的信任可能并非易事”。\n\n全球掀起新一轮疫情 冬季达沃斯论坛连续第二年被迫改期\n世界经济论坛（WEF）将推迟举办下月的达沃斯年会，由于瑞士和全球各地掀起新一轮疫情，会议的举办连续第二年遇挫。\n会议原定于1月17-21日举办；WEF在声明中称，围绕omicron变异株“持续的不确定性”迫使其进行重新考虑，现在计划在初夏举行会议。\n“当前的疫情状况极其难以举办全球性面对面的会议，”WEF表示。“尽管会议实行严格的卫生规定，omicron的传播性及其对旅行和人员流动的影响使得延期成为必要。”\n就在上周，WEF的官员还表示，鉴于瑞士开放国际旅行，且可以提供定期检测，因此对会议的举办有信心。\n但是，由于出现了快速传播的omicron，上述计划面临威胁。\n\n2021年全球并购交易活动首次突破5万亿美元 创历史纪录\n全球并购（M&A）活动在2021年打破了历史纪录，因大量资本和天价估值助长了疯狂的交易水平。\nDealogic的数据显示，全球并购活动价值有史以来首次突破5万亿美元。截至12月16日，并购交易额增长63%，达到5.63万亿美元，轻松超过了2007年金融危机前4.42万亿美元的记录。\n科技和医疗保健通常占并购市场的最大份额，在2021年再次居首，部分原因是去年被压抑的需求，当时并购活动步伐因新冠疫情对全球金融的影响。\n企业争先恐后地通过股票或债券发行筹集资金，大型企业利用繁荣的股票市场将自家股票作为收购货币。此外，尽管存在通胀压力等潜在逆风，但强劲的企业盈利和整体良好的经济前景使企业CEO们有信心进行大型、变革性的交易。\n\n试验显示Moderna加强针可将针对omicron的抗体水平提高36倍\nModerna Inc．表示，接种其新冠疫苗第三针可提高针对omicron变异株的抗体水平，公司称，虽说正在研发专门针对该毒株的疫苗，但这一结果令人安心。\nModerna周一在声明中指出，接种50微克--加强针授权剂量--可令中和抗体水平提高36倍。公司还使用100微克的剂量进行试验，与接种最初两剂疫苗相比，抗体水平提高了82倍。\n当前，各家企业正在力争弄清各自的疫苗对新毒株效果如何，并评估是否需要新的疫苗来遏制其传播。辉瑞公司和BioNTech SE本月早些时候表示，实验室初步研究显示，接种其两剂疫苗者对omicron的抗体下降了24倍，因此可能需要接种第三针，来对抗该毒株。\n\n甲骨文重金砸入医疗保健行业 以283亿美元收购Cerner\n甲骨文同意以大约283亿美元的代价收购医疗记录系统供应商Cerner Corp．，为这家软件制造商带来医疗保健行业的广泛客户基础，提振其云计算和数据库业务。\n甲骨文周一公告称，将以每股95美元现金收购Cerner。这是甲骨文历史上最大的全现金交易。\n甲骨文首席执行官Safra Catz表示，这笔收购将在完成交易后的第一个完整财年立即增加甲骨文的调整后收益，并从第二财年开始贡献更多利润。两家公司表示，交易预计将于明年完成。\n作为营收排名全球第二的软件制造商，甲骨文以数据库产品闻名，近年来在云计算领域一直难有进展，远远落后于亚马逊、微软等行业领军企业。根据市场研究机构IDC的数据，Cerner交易给甲骨文带来了医疗保健行业的巨大技术立足点——预计到2023年，该行业将在云基础设施和软件上要投入158亿美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690807356,"gmtCreate":1639651828631,"gmtModify":1639651828844,"author":{"id":"3584436939205570","authorId":"3584436939205570","name":"kkchang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6aa2135c7d0082a82e328633884f7f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584436939205570","idStr":"3584436939205570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is it a good time for SIA?","listText":"Is it a good time for SIA?","text":"Is it a good time for 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633920404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189049020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What To Watch As Third-Quarter Earnings Season Begins?<blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的开始，有什么值得关注的？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189049020","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 11) The Third-quarter earnings season ramps up in earnest this week with a packed schedule of m","content":"<p>(Oct 11) The Third-quarter earnings season ramps up in earnest this week with a packed schedule of major financial companies poised to report results. Investors have been anxiously awaiting the start of the latest earnings season and bracing for a deceleration in corporate profit growth after a strong second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>（10月11日）第三季度财报季本周正式启动，主要金融公司将公布业绩。投资者一直在焦急地等待最新财报季的开始，并为第二季度强劲后企业利润增长放缓做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cc1643f346c667ff972e41da6bbe71\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2940\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The pace of S&P 500 year-over-year earnings and sales growth reached eye-popping levels for the second quarter due to the easy comparisons with Covid-ravaged 2020 and robust economic growth. The expectations going into this reporting season are more modest, with earnings slated to grow at almost 28% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>由于可以轻松地与遭受新冠疫情蹂躏的2020年和强劲的经济增长进行比较，标普500第二季度的盈利和销售额同比增长速度达到了令人瞠目结舌的水平。进入本报告季的预期更为温和，预计盈利同比增长近28%。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide, the actual performance should still exceed these elevated levels despite a moderation in economic activity. While it will be necessary for earnings to beat expectations, forward guidance will be essential with the current worries about the economic outlook and cost pressures.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴，尽管经济活动放缓，实际表现仍应超过这些较高水平。虽然盈利有必要超出预期，但鉴于当前对经济前景和成本压力的担忧，前瞻性指引至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There are 20 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week, but the primary focus will be on the financials and the banks in particular. </b>According to FactSet, the financials should be around the middle of the pack in earnings growth rates, with consensus year-over-year growth estimates of 17%.</p><p><blockquote><b>本周有20家标普500公司计划公布财报，但主要焦点将是金融股，尤其是银行股。</b>FactSet的数据显示，金融股的盈利增长率应该处于中等水平，普遍预期同比增长率为17%。</blockquote></p><p> There are a handful of other companies like Delta Air Lines (DAL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM)on the calendar. </p><p><blockquote>日历上还有一些其他公司，如达美航空(DAL)、达美乐披萨(DPZ)、台积电公司(TSM)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This season, the impact of higher costs and the ability to pass on higher prices to protect profit margins will be closely scrutinized across all companies.</b> Labor costs will be a headwind for companies, with average hourly earnings rising at a 4.6% year-over-year rate in September. Offsetting higher labor costs is that companies have only re-hired 78% of the jobs lost during the Covid-lockdown. Higher commodity costs will also negatively impact most company’s profitability. The increase in commodity prices goes beyond oil, but as an example, the sharp rise in oil prices negatively impacts the costs for many non-energy companies. The energy sector had a loss in the third quarter of 2020, but the expected 53% increase in sales tells the story of the oil price rebound.</p><p><blockquote><b>本季度，所有公司都将密切关注成本上升的影响以及转嫁更高价格以保护利润率的能力。</b>劳动力成本将成为企业的阻力，9月份平均时薪同比增长4.6%。抵消劳动力成本上升的是，公司只重新雇用了新冠疫情封锁期间失去的78%的工作岗位。较高的商品成本也将对大多数公司的盈利能力产生负面影响。大宗商品价格的上涨不仅仅是石油，但举个例子，油价的大幅上涨对许多非能源公司的成本产生了负面影响。能源行业在2020年第三季度出现亏损，但预计销售额增长53%说明了油价反弹的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply chain disruptions remain a significant issue for this earnings season.</b> These disruptions both increased costs for most companies and resulted in lost sales for companies unable to secure the goods demanded by consumers. Increased shipping costs are almost certain to be a familiar refrain by the end of this reporting season. In the end, robust demand and increased productivity should overcome all these challenges and allow the actual third-quarter results to exceed expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应链中断仍然是本财报季的一个重大问题。</b>这些中断既增加了大多数公司的成本，也导致无法获得消费者所需商品的公司销售损失。到本报告季结束时，运输成本增加几乎肯定会成为人们熟悉的现象。最终，强劲的需求和生产率的提高应该会克服所有这些挑战，并使第三季度的实际业绩超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Aside from earnings, Congress has reached a deal to raise the debt limit enough to kick the can down the road until December 3 at least.</b> Recall that previously, Congress was able to pass a short-term budget resolution to avoid a government shutdown until this date. This temporary measure should allow enough time for the Democrats, who control all three branches of the federal government, to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling via reconciliation. With the debt ceiling crisis averted until December, Congress will now return to focusing on negotiating the hefty tax and spending bills.</p><p><blockquote><b>除了收益之外，国会还达成了一项协议，将债务上限提高到足以将债务上限至少推迟到12月3日。</b>回想一下，此前，国会能够通过一项短期预算决议，以避免政府在此之前关闭。这一临时措施应该会让控制联邦政府所有三个分支的民主党有足够的时间通过和解单方面提高债务上限。随着债务上限危机在12月之前得以避免，国会现在将重新专注于谈判巨额税收和支出法案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings calendar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利日历</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Monday:</b> No notable reports scheduled for release</li> <li><b>Tuesday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FAST\">Fastenal</a> before market open</li> <li><b>Wednesday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a> before market open</li> <li><b>Thursday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">Domino's Pizza</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> , The Progressive Corp. (PGR), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), US Bancorp (USB), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> before market open; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a> after market close</li> <li><b>Friday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC Financial Services Group Inc</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist Financial Corp</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>, The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> before market open</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</li><li><b>星期二：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FAST\">紧固件</a>开市前</li><li><b>星期三：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>开市前</li><li><b>星期四：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">达美乐披萨</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林靴子联盟</a>、进步公司(PGR)、联合健康集团(UNH)、美国合众银行(USB)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>开市前；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">美国铝业</a>收市后</li><li><b>星期五：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC金融服务集团公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist金融公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>，该<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>开市前</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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Investors have been anxiously awaiting the start of the latest earnings season and bracing for a deceleration in corporate profit growth after a strong second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>（10月11日）第三季度财报季本周正式启动，主要金融公司将公布业绩。投资者一直在焦急地等待最新财报季的开始，并为第二季度强劲后企业利润增长放缓做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cc1643f346c667ff972e41da6bbe71\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2940\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The pace of S&P 500 year-over-year earnings and sales growth reached eye-popping levels for the second quarter due to the easy comparisons with Covid-ravaged 2020 and robust economic growth. The expectations going into this reporting season are more modest, with earnings slated to grow at almost 28% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>由于可以轻松地与遭受新冠疫情蹂躏的2020年和强劲的经济增长进行比较，标普500第二季度的盈利和销售额同比增长速度达到了令人瞠目结舌的水平。进入本报告季的预期更为温和，预计盈利同比增长近28%。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide, the actual performance should still exceed these elevated levels despite a moderation in economic activity. While it will be necessary for earnings to beat expectations, forward guidance will be essential with the current worries about the economic outlook and cost pressures.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴，尽管经济活动放缓，实际表现仍应超过这些较高水平。虽然盈利有必要超出预期，但鉴于当前对经济前景和成本压力的担忧，前瞻性指引至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There are 20 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week, but the primary focus will be on the financials and the banks in particular. </b>According to FactSet, the financials should be around the middle of the pack in earnings growth rates, with consensus year-over-year growth estimates of 17%.</p><p><blockquote><b>本周有20家标普500公司计划公布财报，但主要焦点将是金融股，尤其是银行股。</b>FactSet的数据显示，金融股的盈利增长率应该处于中等水平，普遍预期同比增长率为17%。</blockquote></p><p> There are a handful of other companies like Delta Air Lines (DAL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM)on the calendar. </p><p><blockquote>日历上还有一些其他公司，如达美航空(DAL)、达美乐披萨(DPZ)、台积电公司(TSM)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This season, the impact of higher costs and the ability to pass on higher prices to protect profit margins will be closely scrutinized across all companies.</b> Labor costs will be a headwind for companies, with average hourly earnings rising at a 4.6% year-over-year rate in September. Offsetting higher labor costs is that companies have only re-hired 78% of the jobs lost during the Covid-lockdown. Higher commodity costs will also negatively impact most company’s profitability. The increase in commodity prices goes beyond oil, but as an example, the sharp rise in oil prices negatively impacts the costs for many non-energy companies. The energy sector had a loss in the third quarter of 2020, but the expected 53% increase in sales tells the story of the oil price rebound.</p><p><blockquote><b>本季度，所有公司都将密切关注成本上升的影响以及转嫁更高价格以保护利润率的能力。</b>劳动力成本将成为企业的阻力，9月份平均时薪同比增长4.6%。抵消劳动力成本上升的是，公司只重新雇用了新冠疫情封锁期间失去的78%的工作岗位。较高的商品成本也将对大多数公司的盈利能力产生负面影响。大宗商品价格的上涨不仅仅是石油，但举个例子，油价的大幅上涨对许多非能源公司的成本产生了负面影响。能源行业在2020年第三季度出现亏损，但预计销售额增长53%说明了油价反弹的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply chain disruptions remain a significant issue for this earnings season.</b> These disruptions both increased costs for most companies and resulted in lost sales for companies unable to secure the goods demanded by consumers. Increased shipping costs are almost certain to be a familiar refrain by the end of this reporting season. In the end, robust demand and increased productivity should overcome all these challenges and allow the actual third-quarter results to exceed expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应链中断仍然是本财报季的一个重大问题。</b>这些中断既增加了大多数公司的成本，也导致无法获得消费者所需商品的公司销售损失。到本报告季结束时，运输成本增加几乎肯定会成为人们熟悉的现象。最终，强劲的需求和生产率的提高应该会克服所有这些挑战，并使第三季度的实际业绩超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Aside from earnings, Congress has reached a deal to raise the debt limit enough to kick the can down the road until December 3 at least.</b> Recall that previously, Congress was able to pass a short-term budget resolution to avoid a government shutdown until this date. This temporary measure should allow enough time for the Democrats, who control all three branches of the federal government, to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling via reconciliation. With the debt ceiling crisis averted until December, Congress will now return to focusing on negotiating the hefty tax and spending bills.</p><p><blockquote><b>除了收益之外，国会还达成了一项协议，将债务上限提高到足以将债务上限至少推迟到12月3日。</b>回想一下，此前，国会能够通过一项短期预算决议，以避免政府在此之前关闭。这一临时措施应该会让控制联邦政府所有三个分支的民主党有足够的时间通过和解单方面提高债务上限。随着债务上限危机在12月之前得以避免，国会现在将重新专注于谈判巨额税收和支出法案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings calendar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利日历</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Monday:</b> No notable reports scheduled for release</li> <li><b>Tuesday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FAST\">Fastenal</a> before market open</li> <li><b>Wednesday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a> before market open</li> <li><b>Thursday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">Domino's Pizza</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> , The Progressive Corp. (PGR), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), US Bancorp (USB), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> before market open; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a> after market close</li> <li><b>Friday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC Financial Services Group Inc</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist Financial Corp</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>, The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> before market open</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</li><li><b>星期二：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FAST\">紧固件</a>开市前</li><li><b>星期三：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>开市前</li><li><b>星期四：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">达美乐披萨</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林靴子联盟</a>、进步公司(PGR)、联合健康集团(UNH)、美国合众银行(USB)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>开市前；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">美国铝业</a>收市后</li><li><b>星期五：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC金融服务集团公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist金融公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>，该<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>开市前</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189049020","content_text":"(Oct 11) The Third-quarter earnings season ramps up in earnest this week with a packed schedule of major financial companies poised to report results. Investors have been anxiously awaiting the start of the latest earnings season and bracing for a deceleration in corporate profit growth after a strong second quarter.\n\nThe pace of S&P 500 year-over-year earnings and sales growth reached eye-popping levels for the second quarter due to the easy comparisons with Covid-ravaged 2020 and robust economic growth. The expectations going into this reporting season are more modest, with earnings slated to grow at almost 28% year-over-year.\nIf history is any guide, the actual performance should still exceed these elevated levels despite a moderation in economic activity. While it will be necessary for earnings to beat expectations, forward guidance will be essential with the current worries about the economic outlook and cost pressures.\nThere are 20 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week, but the primary focus will be on the financials and the banks in particular. According to FactSet, the financials should be around the middle of the pack in earnings growth rates, with consensus year-over-year growth estimates of 17%.\nThere are a handful of other companies like Delta Air Lines (DAL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM)on the calendar. \nThis season, the impact of higher costs and the ability to pass on higher prices to protect profit margins will be closely scrutinized across all companies. Labor costs will be a headwind for companies, with average hourly earnings rising at a 4.6% year-over-year rate in September. Offsetting higher labor costs is that companies have only re-hired 78% of the jobs lost during the Covid-lockdown. Higher commodity costs will also negatively impact most company’s profitability. The increase in commodity prices goes beyond oil, but as an example, the sharp rise in oil prices negatively impacts the costs for many non-energy companies. The energy sector had a loss in the third quarter of 2020, but the expected 53% increase in sales tells the story of the oil price rebound.\nSupply chain disruptions remain a significant issue for this earnings season. These disruptions both increased costs for most companies and resulted in lost sales for companies unable to secure the goods demanded by consumers. Increased shipping costs are almost certain to be a familiar refrain by the end of this reporting season. In the end, robust demand and increased productivity should overcome all these challenges and allow the actual third-quarter results to exceed expectations.\nAside from earnings, Congress has reached a deal to raise the debt limit enough to kick the can down the road until December 3 at least. Recall that previously, Congress was able to pass a short-term budget resolution to avoid a government shutdown until this date. This temporary measure should allow enough time for the Democrats, who control all three branches of the federal government, to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling via reconciliation. With the debt ceiling crisis averted until December, Congress will now return to focusing on negotiating the hefty tax and spending bills.\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nTuesday: Fastenal before market open\nWednesday: JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, First Republic Bank , Delta Air Lines before market open\nThursday: Bank of America , Domino's Pizza , Walgreens Boots Alliance , The Progressive Corp. (PGR), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), US Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup before market open; Alcoa after market close\nFriday: PNC Financial Services Group Inc, Truist Financial Corp, Coinbase Global, Inc., The Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs before market open","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1978,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829829815,"gmtCreate":1633488644445,"gmtModify":1633488644736,"author":{"id":"3584436939205570","authorId":"3584436939205570","name":"kkchang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6aa2135c7d0082a82e328633884f7f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584436939205570","idStr":"3584436939205570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829829815","repostId":"1101968131","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867637847,"gmtCreate":1633249389536,"gmtModify":1633249389787,"author":{"id":"3584436939205570","authorId":"3584436939205570","name":"kkchang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6aa2135c7d0082a82e328633884f7f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584436939205570","idStr":"3584436939205570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867637847","repostId":"2172964018","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865121553,"gmtCreate":1632962128437,"gmtModify":1632962128740,"author":{"id":"3584436939205570","authorId":"3584436939205570","name":"kkchang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d6aa2135c7d0082a82e328633884f7f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584436939205570","idStr":"3584436939205570"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865121553","repostId":"1186072554","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186072554","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632961699,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186072554?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-30 08:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>在达美航空推动的低迷之后，美国经济有望加速</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186072554","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but e","content":"<p> <b>Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but expect recovery to regain momentum.</b> The Delta variant of Covid-19 appeared to temper economic growth this summer, but economists expect the recovery from the pandemic to reaccelerate as the virus’s toll eases.</p><p><blockquote><b>由于Covid-19激增和供应限制，经济学家下调了第三季度增长预期，但预计复苏将重新获得动力。</b>今年夏天，Covid-19的德尔塔变异毒株似乎抑制了经济增长，但经济学家预计，随着病毒造成的损失减轻，疫情的复苏将重新加速。</blockquote></p><p> In recent weeks, many economists lowered their forecasts for third-quarter economic growth in large part because consumers slowed spending on meals out, hotels and airline tickets amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. The Covid-19 surge also complicated office and school reopenings, turning what had been expected to bea September boom into a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，许多经济学家下调了对第三季度经济增长的预期，很大程度上是因为在高传染性德尔塔变异毒株蔓延的情况下，消费者放缓了外出就餐、酒店和机票的支出。Covid-19的激增也使办公室和学校的重新开放变得复杂，将原本预期的9月份的繁荣变成了低迷。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37953ed44d3a4dd5212d6c91ad50ee96\" tg-width=\"337\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">One wild card is continued supply constraints—including product and worker shortages—that have been more severe than many analysts anticipated, contributing to inflation and downgrades in growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote>一个不确定因素是持续的供应限制——包括产品和工人短缺——比许多分析师预期的更加严重，导致通胀和增长预期下调。</blockquote></p><p> While constraints such asbackups at U.S. portsandoverseas manufacturing disruptionshave persisted, the Federal Reserve and economists expect them to eventually ease.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国港口备份和海外制造业中断等限制因素持续存在，但美联储和经济学家预计这些限制最终会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，近期通胀上升的持续时间可能比央行官员预期的要长，但他重申了他的预期，即物价飙升最终应该会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end,” Mr. Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the European Central Bank.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“当前的通胀飙升实际上是供应限制满足非常强劲需求的结果。这一切都与经济重新开放有关，这是一个有开始、中间和结束的过程。”在欧洲央行主持的主持讨论中。</blockquote></p><p> While many economists have lowered growth forecasts for the third-quarter, they have raised forecasts for next year, indicating that some spending and production have been delayed by the Delta surge, rather than lost to it and supply-chain disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多经济学家下调了第三季度的增长预期，但他们上调了明年的预期，这表明一些支出和生产因三角洲激增而推迟，而不是因其和供应链中断而损失。</blockquote></p><p> Forecasting firm IHS Markit projected in late September that gross domestic product would grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That is less than half of the firm’s mid-July estimate for 7.8% growth in the third quarter, in part reflecting the spending dent from the Delta strain. The government will release its estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Oct. 28.</p><p><blockquote>预测公司IHS Markit在9月底预测，第三季度国内生产总值年率将增长3.6%。这不到该公司7月中旬预测的第三季度增长7.8%的一半，部分反映了Delta菌株导致的支出下降。政府将于10月28日发布对美国第三季度国内生产总值的估计。</blockquote></p><p> “I do think that this new strain has set off some alarm bells that weren’t ringing before July,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at IHS Markit. “The recovery is on solid footing. But it’s just not as robust as what we saw in the first half of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit首席美国经济学家乔尔·普拉肯(Joel Prakken)表示：“我确实认为，这种新毒株已经敲响了一些7月份之前没有敲响的警钟。”“复苏基础稳固。但只是不如我们今年上半年看到的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> There are early signs that the spending slowdown is bottoming out asCovid-19 cases decline. In the week ended Sept. 28, the number of diners seated at restaurants was down just 8% from the same period in 2019, a less severe decline than earlier in the month, data from reservations site OpenTable show.</p><p><blockquote>有早期迹象表明，随着COVID-19病例的减少，支出放缓正在触底。预订网站OpenTable的数据显示，截至9月28日的一周，餐厅就餐人数较2019年同期仅下降8%，降幅没有本月早些时候那么严重。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. hotel occupancy was at 63% for the week ending Sept. 18, the highest level since late August, data from STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company, show. Air travel has shown signs of recovery since hitting a recent trough in mid-September, according to Transportation Security Administration figures comparing passenger traffic with 2019.</p><p><blockquote>全球酒店数据和分析公司STR的数据显示，截至9月18日当周，美国酒店入住率为63%，为8月底以来的最高水平。根据运输安全管理局（Transportation Security Administration）将客运量与2019年进行比较的数据，自9月中旬触及近期低谷以来，航空旅行已显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dac43b243a510d478a3f1cea785c4b09\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Covid-19 cases are likely to continue falling, according to projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If they do, households could tap intoa record $142 trillion in net worthand ramp up spending on in-person services, economists say. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据疾病控制和预防中心的预测，新冠肺炎病例可能会继续下降。经济学家表示，如果他们这样做，家庭可能会获得创纪录的142万亿美元净资产，并增加面对面服务的支出。消费者支出是美国经济增长的最大动力。</blockquote></p><p> “The consumer is in great shape,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC. “They have the firepower, they have the ability to spend.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies LLC)首席经济学家阿内塔·马科斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示：“消费者状况良好。”“他们有火力，他们有能力花钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Markowska added the holiday season could provide another impetus for spending. More people are likely to travel for family get-togethers than last year, when many stayed home amid rising coronavirus cases, she said. In one sign of robust holiday demand, there were five times as many internet searches related to December travel in August compared with a year earlier, according to digital analytics company Similarweb.</p><p><blockquote>Markowska女士补充说，假期可能会为支出提供另一个推动力。她说，与去年相比，更多的人可能会去旅行参加家庭聚会，当时许多人在冠状病毒病例不断增加的情况下呆在家里。根据数字分析公司Similarweb的数据，8月份与12月旅行相关的互联网搜索量是去年同期的五倍，这是度假需求强劲的一个迹象。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve raised its 2022 growth forecast to 3.8% in its September projections released last week, up from 3.3% in June projections.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在上周发布的9月份预测中将2022年增长预期上调至3.8%，高于6月份预测的3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists expect growth to reaccelerate after the third quarter. This month, Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc., projected output would grow at a 6.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 5.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022, up from 4.2% in the third.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家预计增长将在第三季度后重新加速。本月，Decision Economics，Inc.首席全球经济学家兼策略师艾伦·西奈（Allen Sinai）预计，2022年第四季度和第一季度的产出年增长率分别为6.5%和5.1%，高于第三季度的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dcd664726fd8adabd04207c1c6534de\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The economy looks like a coiled spring “that’s being held down in the third quarter by the worsening pandemic,” he said. “But six months from now, one way or the other, as we have seen in the past, we’ll be over that hump.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经济看起来像一个螺旋弹簧，“第三季度因疫情恶化而受到抑制”。“但从现在起六个月后，无论如何，正如我们过去所看到的那样，我们将度过这个难关。”</blockquote></p><p> Though the U.S. is vulnerable to the fast-changing pandemic and potential new variants, each wave of rising Covid cases appears to pose less of an economic threat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国容易受到快速变化的大流行和潜在新变种的影响，但每一波不断上升的新冠病例似乎对经济构成的威胁较小。</blockquote></p><p> The economic drag from the Delta variant was less severe than previous virus surges, many economists say. Most American adults are now vaccinated, helping consumers feel more at ease. Further, most businesses are operating without capacity restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>许多经济学家表示，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的拖累没有之前的病毒激增严重。大多数美国成年人现在都接种了疫苗，这有助于消费者感到更加放心。此外，大多数企业的运营没有产能限制。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant and hotel revenue at the 112-year-old Hotel Boulderado in Boulder, Colo., broke above pre-pandemic levels this summer and are now riding 5% to 10% higher than two years ago, said Creighton Smith, the hotel’s general manager. People eager to travel have been drawn to Boulder’s outdoorsy environment, he said.</p><p><blockquote>科罗拉多州博尔德市拥有112年历史的博尔德拉多酒店(Hotel Boulderado)总经理克赖顿·史密斯(Creighton Smith)表示，该酒店的餐厅和酒店收入今年夏天突破了大流行前的水平，目前比两年前增长了5%至10%。他说，渴望旅行的人被博尔德的户外环境所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> “There was a lot of pent-up demand for travel for the summer and the fall,” Mr. Smith said.</p><p><blockquote>“夏季和秋季的旅行需求被压抑了很多，”史密斯先生说。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9ef376a0840b60f33cabfeb060576c\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Delta has triggered a slowdown in winter bookings for corporate meetings, Mr. Smith said. Still, the hotel no longer faces the same business restrictions and consumer fear of the virus that held back sales earlier in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>史密斯先生说，达美航空已经导致冬季公司会议预订放缓。尽管如此，该酒店不再面临疫情早期阻碍销售的同样的商业限制和消费者对病毒的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re looking forward to a good fall and, I think, an OK winter,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们期待着一个好的秋天，我认为，还有一个好的冬天，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in August reporteda sharp increase in new ordersfor appliances, computers, transportation equipment and other durable goods. Businesses have struggled to meet demand for goods.</p><p><blockquote>8月份企业报告家电、计算机、运输设备和其他耐用品的新订单急剧增加。企业一直在努力满足对商品的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor shortages could continue to crimp shoppers’ ability to buy cars and other goods well into next year. IHS Markit analysts lowered their estimates for 2022 vehicle production on the basis that supply-chain disruptions abroad would take time to resolve. For instance, in Malaysia, extended government lockdowns have squeezed the nation’s ability to supply semiconductors used in autos, the forecasting firm noted.</p><p><blockquote>半导体短缺可能会在明年继续抑制购物者购买汽车和其他商品的能力。IHS Markit分析师下调了对2022年汽车产量的预期，理由是海外供应链中断需要时间才能解决。例如，该预测公司指出，在马来西亚，政府长期封锁挤压了该国供应汽车用半导体的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Still, spending on long-lasting goods fell over the summer after surging in March, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expect demand for goods will cool in the coming months, allowing businesses time to restock inventories.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，根据商务部的数据，耐用品支出在三月份飙升后，在夏季有所下降。经济学家预计，未来几个月商品需求将降温，让企业有时间补充库存。</blockquote></p><p> Housing permits, which have increased for two straight months, could offer an early signal that some material shortages are easing, Ms. Markowska of Jefferies said. The rise in building permits suggests homebuilders are able to get more production materials to launch projects, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies的Markowska女士表示，连续两个月增加的住房许可可能是一些材料短缺正在缓解的早期信号。她说，建筑许可的增加表明房屋建筑商能够获得更多的生产材料来启动项目。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages stand to improve in the coming months, helping businesses meet demand. More workers will likely return from the sidelines as school reopenings alleviate child-care burdens. The nationwide expiration of expanded unemployment benefits in September could pull some workers back into the workforce.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺问题将在未来几个月得到改善，帮助企业满足需求。随着学校重新开放减轻了儿童保育负担，更多的工人可能会从场外返回。全国范围内扩大的失业救济金将于9月份到期，这可能会吸引一些工人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Increased vaccinations—including among children—could provide another labor-market boost. Some parents have stayed out of the labor force because of Covid outbreaks at schools and quarantining requirements, said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist at AC Cutts & Associates LLC.</p><p><blockquote>增加疫苗接种——包括儿童疫苗接种——可能会再次提振劳动力市场。AC Cutts&Associates LLC首席经济学家艾米·克鲁斯·卡茨(Amy Crews Cutts)表示，由于学校爆发新冠疫情和隔离要求，一些家长没有加入劳动力队伍。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can get these kids vaccinated, that stops a lot of the transmission that’s happening now that they’re back in schools,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说：“如果我们能让这些孩子接种疫苗，就能阻止他们重返学校后发生的大量传播。”</blockquote></p><p> Economists say vaccine requirements could spur some workers to quit, while drawing others back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，疫苗要求可能会刺激一些工人辞职，同时吸引其他人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages helped drive up wages and salaries for private-sector workers by 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2002, according to Labor Department data. Economists expect the unemployment rate—which was 5.2% in August—will continue declining, putting continued pressure on wages. Higher wages could offer more support for consumer spending, even though pay gains would be partially offset by elevated inflation.</p><p><blockquote>根据劳工部的数据，劳动力短缺导致第二季度私营部门工人的工资同比上涨3.6%，这是自2002年以来的最快增速。经济学家预计失业率（8月份为5.2%）将继续下降，给工资带来持续压力。更高的工资可能会为消费者支出提供更多支持，尽管工资增长将被通胀上升部分抵消。</blockquote></p><p> The federal government also could deliver another round of spending that could nudge up growth, economists say. That includes a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a separate $3.5 trillion budget bill that would expand access to healthcare, offer universal prekindergarten and reduce carbon emissions, among other measures.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，联邦政府还可能实施另一轮支出，从而提振经济增长。其中包括一项1万亿美元的基础设施法案和一项单独的3.5万亿美元预算法案，该法案将扩大医疗保健、提供普及学前教育和减少碳排放等措施。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists say households are still flush with cash and harbor a lot of pent-up demand for services. Households have only spent about 25% of this year’s stimulus payments, according to an analysis of Household Pulse Survey data by Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家表示，家庭仍然拥有充足的现金，并且对服务有大量被压抑的需求。根据Jefferies LLC对家庭脉搏调查数据的分析，家庭只花了今年刺激支出的25%左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>在达美航空推动的低迷之后，美国经济有望加速</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Economy Is Expected to Pick Up Speed After Delta-Driven Downturn<blockquote>在达美航空推动的低迷之后，美国经济有望加速</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-30 08:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but expect recovery to regain momentum.</b> The Delta variant of Covid-19 appeared to temper economic growth this summer, but economists expect the recovery from the pandemic to reaccelerate as the virus’s toll eases.</p><p><blockquote><b>由于Covid-19激增和供应限制，经济学家下调了第三季度增长预期，但预计复苏将重新获得动力。</b>今年夏天，Covid-19的德尔塔变异毒株似乎抑制了经济增长，但经济学家预计，随着病毒造成的损失减轻，疫情的复苏将重新加速。</blockquote></p><p> In recent weeks, many economists lowered their forecasts for third-quarter economic growth in large part because consumers slowed spending on meals out, hotels and airline tickets amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. The Covid-19 surge also complicated office and school reopenings, turning what had been expected to bea September boom into a downturn.</p><p><blockquote>最近几周，许多经济学家下调了对第三季度经济增长的预期，很大程度上是因为在高传染性德尔塔变异毒株蔓延的情况下，消费者放缓了外出就餐、酒店和机票的支出。Covid-19的激增也使办公室和学校的重新开放变得复杂，将原本预期的9月份的繁荣变成了低迷。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37953ed44d3a4dd5212d6c91ad50ee96\" tg-width=\"337\" tg-height=\"428\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">One wild card is continued supply constraints—including product and worker shortages—that have been more severe than many analysts anticipated, contributing to inflation and downgrades in growth expectations.</p><p><blockquote>一个不确定因素是持续的供应限制——包括产品和工人短缺——比许多分析师预期的更加严重，导致通胀和增长预期下调。</blockquote></p><p> While constraints such asbackups at U.S. portsandoverseas manufacturing disruptionshave persisted, the Federal Reserve and economists expect them to eventually ease.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国港口备份和海外制造业中断等限制因素持续存在，但美联储和经济学家预计这些限制最终会缓解。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周三表示，近期通胀上升的持续时间可能比央行官员预期的要长，但他重申了他的预期，即物价飙升最终应该会消退。</blockquote></p><p> “The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end,” Mr. Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the European Central Bank.</p><p><blockquote>鲍威尔表示：“当前的通胀飙升实际上是供应限制满足非常强劲需求的结果。这一切都与经济重新开放有关，这是一个有开始、中间和结束的过程。”在欧洲央行主持的主持讨论中。</blockquote></p><p> While many economists have lowered growth forecasts for the third-quarter, they have raised forecasts for next year, indicating that some spending and production have been delayed by the Delta surge, rather than lost to it and supply-chain disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>尽管许多经济学家下调了第三季度的增长预期，但他们上调了明年的预期，这表明一些支出和生产因三角洲激增而推迟，而不是因其和供应链中断而损失。</blockquote></p><p> Forecasting firm IHS Markit projected in late September that gross domestic product would grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That is less than half of the firm’s mid-July estimate for 7.8% growth in the third quarter, in part reflecting the spending dent from the Delta strain. The government will release its estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Oct. 28.</p><p><blockquote>预测公司IHS Markit在9月底预测，第三季度国内生产总值年率将增长3.6%。这不到该公司7月中旬预测的第三季度增长7.8%的一半，部分反映了Delta菌株导致的支出下降。政府将于10月28日发布对美国第三季度国内生产总值的估计。</blockquote></p><p> “I do think that this new strain has set off some alarm bells that weren’t ringing before July,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at IHS Markit. “The recovery is on solid footing. But it’s just not as robust as what we saw in the first half of the year.”</p><p><blockquote>IHS Markit首席美国经济学家乔尔·普拉肯(Joel Prakken)表示：“我确实认为，这种新毒株已经敲响了一些7月份之前没有敲响的警钟。”“复苏基础稳固。但只是不如我们今年上半年看到的那么强劲。”</blockquote></p><p> There are early signs that the spending slowdown is bottoming out asCovid-19 cases decline. In the week ended Sept. 28, the number of diners seated at restaurants was down just 8% from the same period in 2019, a less severe decline than earlier in the month, data from reservations site OpenTable show.</p><p><blockquote>有早期迹象表明，随着COVID-19病例的减少，支出放缓正在触底。预订网站OpenTable的数据显示，截至9月28日的一周，餐厅就餐人数较2019年同期仅下降8%，降幅没有本月早些时候那么严重。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. hotel occupancy was at 63% for the week ending Sept. 18, the highest level since late August, data from STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company, show. Air travel has shown signs of recovery since hitting a recent trough in mid-September, according to Transportation Security Administration figures comparing passenger traffic with 2019.</p><p><blockquote>全球酒店数据和分析公司STR的数据显示，截至9月18日当周，美国酒店入住率为63%，为8月底以来的最高水平。根据运输安全管理局（Transportation Security Administration）将客运量与2019年进行比较的数据，自9月中旬触及近期低谷以来，航空旅行已显示出复苏迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dac43b243a510d478a3f1cea785c4b09\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Covid-19 cases are likely to continue falling, according to projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If they do, households could tap intoa record $142 trillion in net worthand ramp up spending on in-person services, economists say. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>根据疾病控制和预防中心的预测，新冠肺炎病例可能会继续下降。经济学家表示，如果他们这样做，家庭可能会获得创纪录的142万亿美元净资产，并增加面对面服务的支出。消费者支出是美国经济增长的最大动力。</blockquote></p><p> “The consumer is in great shape,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC. “They have the firepower, they have the ability to spend.”</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies LLC)首席经济学家阿内塔·马科斯卡(Aneta Markowska)表示：“消费者状况良好。”“他们有火力，他们有能力花钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Markowska added the holiday season could provide another impetus for spending. More people are likely to travel for family get-togethers than last year, when many stayed home amid rising coronavirus cases, she said. In one sign of robust holiday demand, there were five times as many internet searches related to December travel in August compared with a year earlier, according to digital analytics company Similarweb.</p><p><blockquote>Markowska女士补充说，假期可能会为支出提供另一个推动力。她说，与去年相比，更多的人可能会去旅行参加家庭聚会，当时许多人在冠状病毒病例不断增加的情况下呆在家里。根据数字分析公司Similarweb的数据，8月份与12月旅行相关的互联网搜索量是去年同期的五倍，这是度假需求强劲的一个迹象。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve raised its 2022 growth forecast to 3.8% in its September projections released last week, up from 3.3% in June projections.</p><p><blockquote>美联储在上周发布的9月份预测中将2022年增长预期上调至3.8%，高于6月份预测的3.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists expect growth to reaccelerate after the third quarter. This month, Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc., projected output would grow at a 6.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 5.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022, up from 4.2% in the third.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家预计增长将在第三季度后重新加速。本月，Decision Economics，Inc.首席全球经济学家兼策略师艾伦·西奈（Allen Sinai）预计，2022年第四季度和第一季度的产出年增长率分别为6.5%和5.1%，高于第三季度的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dcd664726fd8adabd04207c1c6534de\" tg-width=\"315\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The economy looks like a coiled spring “that’s being held down in the third quarter by the worsening pandemic,” he said. “But six months from now, one way or the other, as we have seen in the past, we’ll be over that hump.”</p><p><blockquote>他说，经济看起来像一个螺旋弹簧，“第三季度因疫情恶化而受到抑制”。“但从现在起六个月后，无论如何，正如我们过去所看到的那样，我们将度过这个难关。”</blockquote></p><p> Though the U.S. is vulnerable to the fast-changing pandemic and potential new variants, each wave of rising Covid cases appears to pose less of an economic threat.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国容易受到快速变化的大流行和潜在新变种的影响，但每一波不断上升的新冠病例似乎对经济构成的威胁较小。</blockquote></p><p> The economic drag from the Delta variant was less severe than previous virus surges, many economists say. Most American adults are now vaccinated, helping consumers feel more at ease. Further, most businesses are operating without capacity restrictions.</p><p><blockquote>许多经济学家表示，德尔塔变异毒株对经济的拖累没有之前的病毒激增严重。大多数美国成年人现在都接种了疫苗，这有助于消费者感到更加放心。此外，大多数企业的运营没有产能限制。</blockquote></p><p> Restaurant and hotel revenue at the 112-year-old Hotel Boulderado in Boulder, Colo., broke above pre-pandemic levels this summer and are now riding 5% to 10% higher than two years ago, said Creighton Smith, the hotel’s general manager. People eager to travel have been drawn to Boulder’s outdoorsy environment, he said.</p><p><blockquote>科罗拉多州博尔德市拥有112年历史的博尔德拉多酒店(Hotel Boulderado)总经理克赖顿·史密斯(Creighton Smith)表示，该酒店的餐厅和酒店收入今年夏天突破了大流行前的水平，目前比两年前增长了5%至10%。他说，渴望旅行的人被博尔德的户外环境所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> “There was a lot of pent-up demand for travel for the summer and the fall,” Mr. Smith said.</p><p><blockquote>“夏季和秋季的旅行需求被压抑了很多，”史密斯先生说。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be9ef376a0840b60f33cabfeb060576c\" tg-width=\"327\" tg-height=\"422\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Delta has triggered a slowdown in winter bookings for corporate meetings, Mr. Smith said. Still, the hotel no longer faces the same business restrictions and consumer fear of the virus that held back sales earlier in the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>史密斯先生说，达美航空已经导致冬季公司会议预订放缓。尽管如此，该酒店不再面临疫情早期阻碍销售的同样的商业限制和消费者对病毒的恐惧。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re looking forward to a good fall and, I think, an OK winter,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们期待着一个好的秋天，我认为，还有一个好的冬天，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Companies in August reporteda sharp increase in new ordersfor appliances, computers, transportation equipment and other durable goods. Businesses have struggled to meet demand for goods.</p><p><blockquote>8月份企业报告家电、计算机、运输设备和其他耐用品的新订单急剧增加。企业一直在努力满足对商品的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Semiconductor shortages could continue to crimp shoppers’ ability to buy cars and other goods well into next year. IHS Markit analysts lowered their estimates for 2022 vehicle production on the basis that supply-chain disruptions abroad would take time to resolve. For instance, in Malaysia, extended government lockdowns have squeezed the nation’s ability to supply semiconductors used in autos, the forecasting firm noted.</p><p><blockquote>半导体短缺可能会在明年继续抑制购物者购买汽车和其他商品的能力。IHS Markit分析师下调了对2022年汽车产量的预期，理由是海外供应链中断需要时间才能解决。例如，该预测公司指出，在马来西亚，政府长期封锁挤压了该国供应汽车用半导体的能力。</blockquote></p><p> Still, spending on long-lasting goods fell over the summer after surging in March, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expect demand for goods will cool in the coming months, allowing businesses time to restock inventories.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，根据商务部的数据，耐用品支出在三月份飙升后，在夏季有所下降。经济学家预计，未来几个月商品需求将降温，让企业有时间补充库存。</blockquote></p><p> Housing permits, which have increased for two straight months, could offer an early signal that some material shortages are easing, Ms. Markowska of Jefferies said. The rise in building permits suggests homebuilders are able to get more production materials to launch projects, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies的Markowska女士表示，连续两个月增加的住房许可可能是一些材料短缺正在缓解的早期信号。她说，建筑许可的增加表明房屋建筑商能够获得更多的生产材料来启动项目。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages stand to improve in the coming months, helping businesses meet demand. More workers will likely return from the sidelines as school reopenings alleviate child-care burdens. The nationwide expiration of expanded unemployment benefits in September could pull some workers back into the workforce.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺问题将在未来几个月得到改善，帮助企业满足需求。随着学校重新开放减轻了儿童保育负担，更多的工人可能会从场外返回。全国范围内扩大的失业救济金将于9月份到期，这可能会吸引一些工人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Increased vaccinations—including among children—could provide another labor-market boost. Some parents have stayed out of the labor force because of Covid outbreaks at schools and quarantining requirements, said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist at AC Cutts & Associates LLC.</p><p><blockquote>增加疫苗接种——包括儿童疫苗接种——可能会再次提振劳动力市场。AC Cutts&Associates LLC首席经济学家艾米·克鲁斯·卡茨(Amy Crews Cutts)表示，由于学校爆发新冠疫情和隔离要求，一些家长没有加入劳动力队伍。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can get these kids vaccinated, that stops a lot of the transmission that’s happening now that they’re back in schools,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说：“如果我们能让这些孩子接种疫苗，就能阻止他们重返学校后发生的大量传播。”</blockquote></p><p> Economists say vaccine requirements could spur some workers to quit, while drawing others back into the labor force.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，疫苗要求可能会刺激一些工人辞职，同时吸引其他人重返劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p> Labor shortages helped drive up wages and salaries for private-sector workers by 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2002, according to Labor Department data. Economists expect the unemployment rate—which was 5.2% in August—will continue declining, putting continued pressure on wages. Higher wages could offer more support for consumer spending, even though pay gains would be partially offset by elevated inflation.</p><p><blockquote>根据劳工部的数据，劳动力短缺导致第二季度私营部门工人的工资同比上涨3.6%，这是自2002年以来的最快增速。经济学家预计失业率（8月份为5.2%）将继续下降，给工资带来持续压力。更高的工资可能会为消费者支出提供更多支持，尽管工资增长将被通胀上升部分抵消。</blockquote></p><p> The federal government also could deliver another round of spending that could nudge up growth, economists say. That includes a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a separate $3.5 trillion budget bill that would expand access to healthcare, offer universal prekindergarten and reduce carbon emissions, among other measures.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家表示，联邦政府还可能实施另一轮支出，从而提振经济增长。其中包括一项1万亿美元的基础设施法案和一项单独的3.5万亿美元预算法案，该法案将扩大医疗保健、提供普及学前教育和减少碳排放等措施。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists say households are still flush with cash and harbor a lot of pent-up demand for services. Households have only spent about 25% of this year’s stimulus payments, according to an analysis of Household Pulse Survey data by Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家表示，家庭仍然拥有充足的现金，并且对服务有大量被压抑的需求。根据Jefferies LLC对家庭脉搏调查数据的分析，家庭只花了今年刺激支出的25%左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-set-to-pick-up-speed-after-delta-driven-downturn-11632907800?mod=hp_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-economy-set-to-pick-up-speed-after-delta-driven-downturn-11632907800?mod=hp_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186072554","content_text":"Economists cut third-quarter growth estimates because of Covid-19 surge and supply constraints but expect recovery to regain momentum.\n\nThe Delta variant of Covid-19 appeared to temper economic growth this summer, but economists expect the recovery from the pandemic to reaccelerate as the virus’s toll eases.\nIn recent weeks, many economists lowered their forecasts for third-quarter economic growth in large part because consumers slowed spending on meals out, hotels and airline tickets amid the spread of the highly contagious Delta variant. The Covid-19 surge also complicated office and school reopenings, turning what had been expected to bea September boom into a downturn.\nOne wild card is continued supply constraints—including product and worker shortages—that have been more severe than many analysts anticipated, contributing to inflation and downgrades in growth expectations.\nWhile constraints such asbackups at U.S. portsandoverseas manufacturing disruptionshave persisted, the Federal Reserve and economists expect them to eventually ease.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that a recent spell of higher inflation might last longer than central bank officials had anticipated, but he repeated his expectation that the price surge should eventually fade.\n“The current inflation spike is really a consequence of supply constraints meeting very strong demand. And that is all associated with the reopening of the economy, which is a process that will have a beginning, middle and an end,” Mr. Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the European Central Bank.\nWhile many economists have lowered growth forecasts for the third-quarter, they have raised forecasts for next year, indicating that some spending and production have been delayed by the Delta surge, rather than lost to it and supply-chain disruptions.\nForecasting firm IHS Markit projected in late September that gross domestic product would grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the third quarter. That is less than half of the firm’s mid-July estimate for 7.8% growth in the third quarter, in part reflecting the spending dent from the Delta strain. The government will release its estimate of third-quarter U.S. gross domestic product on Oct. 28.\n“I do think that this new strain has set off some alarm bells that weren’t ringing before July,” said Joel Prakken, chief U.S. economist at IHS Markit. “The recovery is on solid footing. But it’s just not as robust as what we saw in the first half of the year.”\nThere are early signs that the spending slowdown is bottoming out asCovid-19 cases decline. In the week ended Sept. 28, the number of diners seated at restaurants was down just 8% from the same period in 2019, a less severe decline than earlier in the month, data from reservations site OpenTable show.\nU.S. hotel occupancy was at 63% for the week ending Sept. 18, the highest level since late August, data from STR, a global hospitality data and analytics company, show. Air travel has shown signs of recovery since hitting a recent trough in mid-September, according to Transportation Security Administration figures comparing passenger traffic with 2019.\nCovid-19 cases are likely to continue falling, according to projections from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. If they do, households could tap intoa record $142 trillion in net worthand ramp up spending on in-person services, economists say. Consumer spending is the biggest driver of U.S. economic growth.\n“The consumer is in great shape,” said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC. “They have the firepower, they have the ability to spend.”\nMs. Markowska added the holiday season could provide another impetus for spending. More people are likely to travel for family get-togethers than last year, when many stayed home amid rising coronavirus cases, she said. In one sign of robust holiday demand, there were five times as many internet searches related to December travel in August compared with a year earlier, according to digital analytics company Similarweb.\nThe Federal Reserve raised its 2022 growth forecast to 3.8% in its September projections released last week, up from 3.3% in June projections.\nSome economists expect growth to reaccelerate after the third quarter. This month, Allen Sinai, chief global economist and strategist at Decision Economics, Inc., projected output would grow at a 6.5% annual rate in the fourth quarter and at a 5.1% rate in the first quarter of 2022, up from 4.2% in the third.\nThe economy looks like a coiled spring “that’s being held down in the third quarter by the worsening pandemic,” he said. “But six months from now, one way or the other, as we have seen in the past, we’ll be over that hump.”\nThough the U.S. is vulnerable to the fast-changing pandemic and potential new variants, each wave of rising Covid cases appears to pose less of an economic threat.\nThe economic drag from the Delta variant was less severe than previous virus surges, many economists say. Most American adults are now vaccinated, helping consumers feel more at ease. Further, most businesses are operating without capacity restrictions.\nRestaurant and hotel revenue at the 112-year-old Hotel Boulderado in Boulder, Colo., broke above pre-pandemic levels this summer and are now riding 5% to 10% higher than two years ago, said Creighton Smith, the hotel’s general manager. People eager to travel have been drawn to Boulder’s outdoorsy environment, he said.\n“There was a lot of pent-up demand for travel for the summer and the fall,” Mr. Smith said.\n\nDelta has triggered a slowdown in winter bookings for corporate meetings, Mr. Smith said. Still, the hotel no longer faces the same business restrictions and consumer fear of the virus that held back sales earlier in the pandemic.\n“We’re looking forward to a good fall and, I think, an OK winter,” he said.\nCompanies in August reporteda sharp increase in new ordersfor appliances, computers, transportation equipment and other durable goods. Businesses have struggled to meet demand for goods.\nSemiconductor shortages could continue to crimp shoppers’ ability to buy cars and other goods well into next year. IHS Markit analysts lowered their estimates for 2022 vehicle production on the basis that supply-chain disruptions abroad would take time to resolve. For instance, in Malaysia, extended government lockdowns have squeezed the nation’s ability to supply semiconductors used in autos, the forecasting firm noted.\nStill, spending on long-lasting goods fell over the summer after surging in March, according to the Commerce Department. Economists expect demand for goods will cool in the coming months, allowing businesses time to restock inventories.\nHousing permits, which have increased for two straight months, could offer an early signal that some material shortages are easing, Ms. Markowska of Jefferies said. The rise in building permits suggests homebuilders are able to get more production materials to launch projects, she said.\nLabor shortages stand to improve in the coming months, helping businesses meet demand. More workers will likely return from the sidelines as school reopenings alleviate child-care burdens. The nationwide expiration of expanded unemployment benefits in September could pull some workers back into the workforce.\nIncreased vaccinations—including among children—could provide another labor-market boost. Some parents have stayed out of the labor force because of Covid outbreaks at schools and quarantining requirements, said Amy Crews Cutts, chief economist at AC Cutts & Associates LLC.\n“If we can get these kids vaccinated, that stops a lot of the transmission that’s happening now that they’re back in schools,” she said.\nEconomists say vaccine requirements could spur some workers to quit, while drawing others back into the labor force.\nLabor shortages helped drive up wages and salaries for private-sector workers by 3.6% in the second quarter from a year earlier, the fastest pace since 2002, according to Labor Department data. Economists expect the unemployment rate—which was 5.2% in August—will continue declining, putting continued pressure on wages. Higher wages could offer more support for consumer spending, even though pay gains would be partially offset by elevated inflation.\nThe federal government also could deliver another round of spending that could nudge up growth, economists say. That includes a $1 trillion infrastructure bill and a separate $3.5 trillion budget bill that would expand access to healthcare, offer universal prekindergarten and reduce carbon emissions, among other measures.\nSome economists say households are still flush with cash and harbor a lot of pent-up demand for services. Households have only spent about 25% of this year’s stimulus payments, according to an analysis of Household Pulse Survey data by Jefferies LLC.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3413,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}