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TaroQ
TaroQ
·
2021-10-14
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$
Plummet like crazy yet not appearing on main page market scanner + watchlist 😶😶😶
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TaroQ
TaroQ
·
2021-10-08
$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$
up up
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TaroQ
TaroQ
·
2021-07-07
Nice
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TaroQ
TaroQ
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2021-07-05
GG
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TaroQ
TaroQ
·
2021-07-02
Cool
The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote>
Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the p
The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote>
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TaroQ
TaroQ
·
2021-07-01
Nice
The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>
Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year. The S&P 5
The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>
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TaroQ
TaroQ
·
2021-06-30
Like please thanks!
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TaroQ
TaroQ
·
2021-06-29
Comment and like please thanks!
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TaroQ
TaroQ
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2021-06-28
Like and comment please thanks!
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TaroQ
TaroQ
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2021-06-27
Like and comment please thanks!
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15:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126312436","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the p","content":"<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市无情飙升。然而，有几个因素有可能终结这场派对。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500上半年的表现是自1998年以来第二好的，而且没有表现出太多放缓的迹象。截至6月底，该指数今年迄今已上涨14.4%，当月创下多项纪录，并于周四创下另一项收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.</p><p><blockquote>然而，DataTrek联合创始人尼克·科拉斯(Nick Colas)表示，有几个关键风险可能会扭转这一切。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a new multi-year high Thursday—even amid growing expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.</p><p><blockquote>首先，油价可能会出现冲击，因为原油价格几乎没有降温的迹象。WTI原油今年迄今已上涨56%，并于周四创下多年新高——尽管人们越来越预期OPEC将增加供应。如果油价足够高，通胀可能会上升到一个水平，如果持续下去，可能会导致消费者需求下降，并可能超出美联储的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”</p><p><blockquote>“油价突然上涨”是Colas股市担忧的首要问题。“油价快速上涨将导致美国通胀超出美联储预期结果，也给美国消费者带来压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Both those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事都可能削弱股市，股市长期以来一直受益于美联储的宽松货币政策，特别是如果美联储暗示加息可能比预期更早到来的话。</blockquote></p><p> That means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，这意味着美联储在讨论利率时需要谨慎行事，以避免惊吓市场。</blockquote></p><p> “Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&P 500 dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，“美联储对即将到来的政策变化和/或过于激进地加息的沟通不畅”是第二个风险。例如，2018年底，随着美联储加息，标普500在大约三个月内暴跌18%，尽管当时市场希望利率保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> Peaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，盈利增长见顶是股市面临的另一个威胁。FactSet的数据显示，随着经济正常化和疫情后复苏放缓，标普500公司的平均盈利增长预计将从2021年的36%放缓至2022年的11%。但平均而言，标普500股市未来12个月预期市盈率为21.5倍，仍高于该指数大流行前的市盈率。在某些时候，股票估值需要更好地反映盈利增长的预期下降，这将意味着股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯写道：“目前估值足够高，盈利见顶可能比以前面临更大的风险。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Had a Great First Half. 3 Things That Could Cause it to Crash.<blockquote>股市上半年表现出色。可能导致它崩溃的三件事。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 15:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市无情飙升。然而，有几个因素有可能终结这场派对。</blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500上半年的表现是自1998年以来第二好的，而且没有表现出太多放缓的迹象。截至6月底，该指数今年迄今已上涨14.4%，当月创下多项纪录，并于周四创下另一项收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> Yet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.</p><p><blockquote>然而，DataTrek联合创始人尼克·科拉斯(Nick Colas)表示，有几个关键风险可能会扭转这一切。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a new multi-year high Thursday—even amid growing expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.</p><p><blockquote>首先，油价可能会出现冲击，因为原油价格几乎没有降温的迹象。WTI原油今年迄今已上涨56%，并于周四创下多年新高——尽管人们越来越预期OPEC将增加供应。如果油价足够高，通胀可能会上升到一个水平，如果持续下去，可能会导致消费者需求下降，并可能超出美联储的预期。</blockquote></p><p> “Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”</p><p><blockquote>“油价突然上涨”是Colas股市担忧的首要问题。“油价快速上涨将导致美国通胀超出美联储预期结果，也给美国消费者带来压力。”</blockquote></p><p> Both those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>这两件事都可能削弱股市，股市长期以来一直受益于美联储的宽松货币政策，特别是如果美联储暗示加息可能比预期更早到来的话。</blockquote></p><p> That means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，这意味着美联储在讨论利率时需要谨慎行事，以避免惊吓市场。</blockquote></p><p> “Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&P 500 dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，“美联储对即将到来的政策变化和/或过于激进地加息的沟通不畅”是第二个风险。例如，2018年底，随着美联储加息，标普500在大约三个月内暴跌18%，尽管当时市场希望利率保持不变。</blockquote></p><p> Peaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯表示，盈利增长见顶是股市面临的另一个威胁。FactSet的数据显示，随着经济正常化和疫情后复苏放缓，标普500公司的平均盈利增长预计将从2021年的36%放缓至2022年的11%。但平均而言，标普500股市未来12个月预期市盈率为21.5倍，仍高于该指数大流行前的市盈率。在某些时候，股票估值需要更好地反映盈利增长的预期下降，这将意味着股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.</p><p><blockquote>科拉斯写道：“目前估值足够高，盈利见顶可能比以前面临更大的风险。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-crash-risks-51625174065","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126312436","content_text":"Stocks have soared relentlessly this year. Several factors, however, have the potential to end the party.\nThe S&P 500 has had its second-best first half of a year since 1998, and it hasn’t shown many signs of letting up. The index ended June up 14.4% year to date, hitting several records during the month and posting another record close on Thursday.\nYet there are a couple key risks that could turn all of that around, according to Nick Colas, co-founder of DataTrek.\nFirst, there’s the possibility of an oil price shock, as the price of crude has shown little sign of cooling off. WTI crude oil is up 56% year to date and notched a new multi-year high Thursday—even amid growing expectations that OPEC will increase supply. If oil prices run hot enough, that could raise inflation to a level that—if sustained — could cause consumer demand to fall and that could surpass Federal Reserve expectations.\n“Suddenly higher oil prices” is atop the list of stock market concerns for Colas. “Rapidly rising oil prices will cause U.S. inflation to overshoot the Fed’s desired outcome and also stress the American consumer.”\nBoth those things could dent the stock market, which has long benefited from the Fed’s accommodative monetary policy, especially if the Fed signals that interest-rate increases could come sooner than expected.\nThat means the Fed will need to tread carefully when discussing rates to avoid spooking the market, Colas says.\n“Federal Reserve miscommunication about upcoming policy changes and/or raising interest rates too aggressively” is a second risk, Colas says. For instance, the S&P 500 dived 18% over roughly three months in late 2018 as the Fed raised rates, despite the market’s hope at that time for rates to stay put.\nPeaking earnings growth is the other threat to stocks, Colas says. Earnings growth for the average S&P 500 company is expected slow down to 11% in 2022 from 36% in 2021, according to FactSet, as the economy normalizes and the postpandemic recovery eases. But on average, S&P 500 stocks trade at 21.5 times expected earnings for the next 12 months, still above the index’s pre-pandemic multiple. At some point, stocks valuations will need to better reflect the expected decline in earnings growth, which would mean falling stock prices.\n“Valuations are high enough currently that peaking earnings could be a larger risk than before,” Colas writes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158340981,"gmtCreate":1625131729543,"gmtModify":1631891327139,"author":{"id":"3585013915019621","authorId":"3585013915019621","name":"TaroQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2dde0e013af7cbb931ba6ccd0713ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585013915019621","idStr":"3585013915019621"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158340981","repostId":"1106223449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106223449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625122086,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106223449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106223449","media":"Barrons","summary":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 5","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自1979年以来，标普500上半年涨幅达到或超过10%已有14次。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p><p><blockquote>标普500的上半年表现是自互联网泡沫以来第二好的。如果股市继续上涨，不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> With June coming to an end, the S&P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p><p><blockquote>随着6月接近尾声，标普500以14.4%的涨幅结束了2021年上半年。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的增幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19疫苗接种提振了市场，帮助美国经济重新开放，而数万亿美元的财政刺激措施帮助支撑了需求。尽管对通胀的担忧加剧了人们对美联储将被迫采取措施减缓经济增长的猜测，但涨幅仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨和美联储更加鹰派的结合引发了市场过于自满的担忧。如果通胀持续持续足够长的时间，央行可能会被迫以比市场预期更快的速度采取行动，并导致股市暴跌。其他人担心美国。经济增长放缓的速度可能快于投资者的预期，导致经济增长放缓。</blockquote></p><p> For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>对于持这种观点的人来说，没有比现在更好的退出股市的时机了。历史表明并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>自1979年以来，标普500上半年涨幅达到或超过10%的有14次，下半年该指数平均涨幅为6.3%。更重要的是，该指数在下半年有11次（即79%的时间）走高。</blockquote></p><p> Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p><p><blockquote>即使是损失，当它们发生时，也没有那么糟糕。标普500在1983年下半年下降了1.9%，在1986年最后六个月下降了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called portfolio insurance was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一个例外是1987年的最后六个月，该指数在下半年下跌了19%。那段时间包括黑色星期一，当时标普500在一天内下跌了20%，仍然是创纪录的跌幅。虽然与所谓投资组合保险相关的抛售最终被归咎于损失的规模和速度，但1987年下半年是债券收益率上升和股市估值高的时期，就像2021年上半年一样。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场一直表现得想要走高，而不是走低。回调是牛市中的正常事件，在2021年表现温和，最大跌幅不到4%。Instinet首席市场技术员Frank Cappelleri写道：“[标普500]在2021年所做的就是在需要的时间和地点回升，始终保持上升趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p><p><blockquote>下半年6.3%的平均涨幅将使标普500的全年涨幅达到23%左右。Fundstrat的汤姆·李(Tom Lee)表示，这将代表着从衰退中“教科书式的[市场]复苏”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p><p><blockquote>至少就目前而言，阻力最小的路径更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 14:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自1979年以来，标普500上半年涨幅达到或超过10%已有14次。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p><p><blockquote>标普500的上半年表现是自互联网泡沫以来第二好的。如果股市继续上涨，不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> With June coming to an end, the S&P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p><p><blockquote>随着6月接近尾声，标普500以14.4%的涨幅结束了2021年上半年。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的增幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19疫苗接种提振了市场，帮助美国经济重新开放，而数万亿美元的财政刺激措施帮助支撑了需求。尽管对通胀的担忧加剧了人们对美联储将被迫采取措施减缓经济增长的猜测，但涨幅仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨和美联储更加鹰派的结合引发了市场过于自满的担忧。如果通胀持续持续足够长的时间，央行可能会被迫以比市场预期更快的速度采取行动，并导致股市暴跌。其他人担心美国。经济增长放缓的速度可能快于投资者的预期，导致经济增长放缓。</blockquote></p><p> For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>对于持这种观点的人来说，没有比现在更好的退出股市的时机了。历史表明并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>自1979年以来，标普500上半年涨幅达到或超过10%的有14次，下半年该指数平均涨幅为6.3%。更重要的是，该指数在下半年有11次（即79%的时间）走高。</blockquote></p><p> Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p><p><blockquote>即使是损失，当它们发生时，也没有那么糟糕。标普500在1983年下半年下降了1.9%，在1986年最后六个月下降了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called portfolio insurance was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一个例外是1987年的最后六个月，该指数在下半年下跌了19%。那段时间包括黑色星期一，当时标普500在一天内下跌了20%，仍然是创纪录的跌幅。虽然与所谓投资组合保险相关的抛售最终被归咎于损失的规模和速度，但1987年下半年是债券收益率上升和股市估值高的时期，就像2021年上半年一样。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场一直表现得想要走高，而不是走低。回调是牛市中的正常事件，在2021年表现温和，最大跌幅不到4%。Instinet首席市场技术员Frank Cappelleri写道：“[标普500]在2021年所做的就是在需要的时间和地点回升，始终保持上升趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p><p><blockquote>下半年6.3%的平均涨幅将使标普500的全年涨幅达到23%左右。Fundstrat的汤姆·李(Tom Lee)表示，这将代表着从衰退中“教科书式的[市场]复苏”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p><p><blockquote>至少就目前而言，阻力最小的路径更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106223449","content_text":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.\nWith June coming to an end, the S&P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.\nThe market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.\nThe combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.\nFor those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.\nSince 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.\nEven the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.\nThe one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called portfolio insurance was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.\nStill, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.\nThat 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.\nFor now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153501927,"gmtCreate":1625031016369,"gmtModify":1631891327141,"author":{"id":"3585013915019621","authorId":"3585013915019621","name":"TaroQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2dde0e013af7cbb931ba6ccd0713ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585013915019621","idStr":"3585013915019621"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please thanks!","listText":"Like please thanks!","text":"Like please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153501927","repostId":"1122418477","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159332857,"gmtCreate":1624940605779,"gmtModify":1631891327144,"author":{"id":"3585013915019621","authorId":"3585013915019621","name":"TaroQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2dde0e013af7cbb931ba6ccd0713ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585013915019621","idStr":"3585013915019621"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like please thanks!","listText":"Comment and like please thanks!","text":"Comment and like please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159332857","repostId":"2147853075","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127783948,"gmtCreate":1624869092784,"gmtModify":1631891327148,"author":{"id":"3585013915019621","authorId":"3585013915019621","name":"TaroQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2dde0e013af7cbb931ba6ccd0713ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585013915019621","idStr":"3585013915019621"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please thanks!","text":"Like and comment please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127783948","repostId":"2146007118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124536985,"gmtCreate":1624771352847,"gmtModify":1631891327152,"author":{"id":"3585013915019621","authorId":"3585013915019621","name":"TaroQ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2dde0e013af7cbb931ba6ccd0713ac","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585013915019621","idStr":"3585013915019621"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please thanks!","listText":"Like and comment please thanks!","text":"Like and comment please thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124536985","repostId":"2146090006","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}