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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-10-15
Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀
Buying The Dip Is Dead
Summary Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up. There's a mechanical rea
Buying The Dip Is Dead
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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-10-14
BUY-ing [Miser]
86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating
• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock inv
86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating
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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-10-08
Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year [Smart]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-10-07
Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]
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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-10-02
Interesting choices 🤔
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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-09-30
So much good options! [Miser]
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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-09-29
Looks like we will need to cash up 🐯
Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's "Strong Rebound", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment
For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumb
Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's "Strong Rebound", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment
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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-09-26
Added to watchlist [Observation]
5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021
Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now? The past trading week has been exciting, to
5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021
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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-09-24
Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀
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Lainey_Lim
Lainey_Lim
·
2021-09-23
[Blush]
Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors
Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice. Inv
Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors
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There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p>\n<p>Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p>\n<p>The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p>\n<p>If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p>\n<p>The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p>\n<p>The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p>\n<p>Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p>\n<p>This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-14 11:40 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825166300,"gmtCreate":1634210513996,"gmtModify":1634210514110,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BUY-ing [Miser] ","listText":"BUY-ing [Miser] ","text":"BUY-ing [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825166300","repostId":"1169529009","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169529009","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632904196,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169529009?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 16:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169529009","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock inv","content":"<p>• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83% upside potential from the latest market close price, despite possible sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.</p>\n<p>• 86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US $668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will decline due to the mix change of financing activities on the platform.</p>\n<p>• 86Research derives their US$21 price target based on a 20x 2024E P/E multiple and 13% 2-yr discount rate. The PT implies 13.8x/11.7x/8.4x 2021E/2022E/2023E forward P/B multiples, reflecting a premium to global peers. HK license approval, progress in international expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.</p>\n<p>• 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app and one account.</p>\n<p>• Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business development in investment banking and wealth management services are expected to contribute meaningful revenues.</p>\n<p>• International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion. Although facing challenges in terms of culture, regulatory environment and competition, 86Research is positive that TIGR will capture more growth in its two promising markets.</p>\n<p>• TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research is confident such growth can offset the cyclical impact from a long-term perspective.</p>\n<p>• HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR can also build connections with banks to provide IPO subscriptions and financing services in Hong Kong and support the development of margin financing business.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-29 16:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83% upside potential from the latest market close price, despite possible sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.</p>\n<p>• 86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US $668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will decline due to the mix change of financing activities on the platform.</p>\n<p>• 86Research derives their US$21 price target based on a 20x 2024E P/E multiple and 13% 2-yr discount rate. The PT implies 13.8x/11.7x/8.4x 2021E/2022E/2023E forward P/B multiples, reflecting a premium to global peers. HK license approval, progress in international expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.</p>\n<p>• 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app and one account.</p>\n<p>• Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business development in investment banking and wealth management services are expected to contribute meaningful revenues.</p>\n<p>• International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion. Although facing challenges in terms of culture, regulatory environment and competition, 86Research is positive that TIGR will capture more growth in its two promising markets.</p>\n<p>• TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research is confident such growth can offset the cyclical impact from a long-term perspective.</p>\n<p>• HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR can also build connections with banks to provide IPO subscriptions and financing services in Hong Kong and support the development of margin financing business.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169529009","content_text":"• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83% upside potential from the latest market close price, despite possible sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.\n• 86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US $668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will decline due to the mix change of financing activities on the platform.\n• 86Research derives their US$21 price target based on a 20x 2024E P/E multiple and 13% 2-yr discount rate. The PT implies 13.8x/11.7x/8.4x 2021E/2022E/2023E forward P/B multiples, reflecting a premium to global peers. HK license approval, progress in international expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.\n• 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app and one account.\n• Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business development in investment banking and wealth management services are expected to contribute meaningful revenues.\n• International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion. Although facing challenges in terms of culture, regulatory environment and competition, 86Research is positive that TIGR will capture more growth in its two promising markets.\n• TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research is confident such growth can offset the cyclical impact from a long-term perspective.\n• HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR can also build connections with banks to provide IPO subscriptions and financing services in Hong Kong and support the development of margin financing business.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823518653,"gmtCreate":1633648680507,"gmtModify":1633648844493,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year [Smart] ","listText":"Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year [Smart] ","text":"Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year [Smart]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823518653","repostId":"1152020493","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829729057,"gmtCreate":1633560025456,"gmtModify":1633560025952,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm] ","listText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm] ","text":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829729057","repostId":"2173917919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864244853,"gmtCreate":1633123723364,"gmtModify":1633123723760,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting choices 🤔 ","listText":"Interesting choices 🤔 ","text":"Interesting choices 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864244853","repostId":"2172295185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865339222,"gmtCreate":1632950152696,"gmtModify":1632950153088,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So much good options! [Miser] ","listText":"So much good options! [Miser] ","text":"So much good options! [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865339222","repostId":"2171984641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"content":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","text":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","html":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862893372,"gmtCreate":1632865487416,"gmtModify":1632865487543,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looks like we will need to cash up 🐯","listText":"Looks like we will need to cash up 🐯","text":"Looks like we will need to cash up 🐯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862893372","repostId":"1166571782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166571782","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632787589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166571782?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166571782","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumb","content":"<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"<b>the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction</b>\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87b7fac22f1a1f5db68fec641fc7528\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&P.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45afcf0068538b4f56bc85f42af9e52f\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Well, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion, the S&P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.</p>\n<p>So has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?</p>\n<p>Today we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly. <b>With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.</b>\"</p>\n<p>We'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.</b>The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The final component we spend a lot of time on is price.</b>While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, \n <b>we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.</b>In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.\n</blockquote>\n<p>With that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks<b>\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"</b>and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"</p>\n<p>The other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.<b>The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.</b>This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"</p>\n<p>Curiously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f0bb937e8d564694c06b7e1362bd81\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>In short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namely<b>why did stocks rally so much into the end of the week</b>on what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?</p>\n<p>Here Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.</p>\n<p>The other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.<b>In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.</b>Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.</p>\n<p>Whatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"</p>\n<p>His conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fc56e35f140c96104f8d8aa0826fd3\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Getting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.</p>\n<p>It will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"<b>don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"</b>which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"<b>that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"</b>and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.</p>\n<p>* * *</p>\n<p>With all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>Since the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts</b>. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e643723cfa540ad52a1dcebcba24f3\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<blockquote>\n We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation. \n <b>Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5496394c7a42ab136f68ba74c64cf83\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6beae58fd458a45024d160d45b4684\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>No surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:</p>\n<p><b>2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...</b>we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates<b>, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects</b>.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80ec048b5856ebf2159d1d9d0151334\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Further, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c8fcfa4bb23d953d8c2079bc1a0ec5\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Wilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—<b>in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216bbe5eae73445b35a9152e741dccef\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Translation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-28 08:06 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166571782","content_text":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.\nWilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&P.\n\nWell, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion, the S&P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.\nSo has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?\nToday we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly. With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.\"\nWe'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:\n\nOur equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.\n\n\nThe final component we spend a lot of time on is price.While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, \n we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.\n\n\nThis year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.\n\nWith that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"\nThe other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"\nCuriously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).\n\nIn short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"\nWhich brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namelywhy did stocks rally so much into the end of the weekon what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?\nHere Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.\nThe other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.\nWhatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"\nHis conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"\n\nGetting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.\nIt will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.\n* * *\nWith all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:\n\nSince the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.\n\n\n\n We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation. \n Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.\n\n\nNo surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:\n2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects.\n\nFurther, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.\n\nWilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"\n\nTranslation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1456,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868389953,"gmtCreate":1632608695272,"gmtModify":1632653975170,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Added to watchlist [Observation] ","listText":"Added to watchlist [Observation] ","text":"Added to watchlist [Observation]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868389953","repostId":"1188909032","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188909032","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632531451,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188909032?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-25 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188909032","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?\nThe past trading week has been exciting, to","content":"<p>Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?</p>\n<p>The past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.</p>\n<p>Evidently, we could look at the likes of<b>Roku</b>(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.</p>\n<p>At the same time, there is some interesting movement going on with<b>Nike’s</b>(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?</p>\n<p>Best Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Beyond Meat Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: BYND)</li>\n <li><b>Trip.com Group Ltd.</b>(NASDAQ: TCOM)</li>\n <li><b>Vail Resorts Inc.</b>(NYSE: MTN)</li>\n <li><b>Costco Wholesale Corporation</b>(NASDAQ: COST)</li>\n <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: SFIX)</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Beyond Meat Inc.</p>\n<p><b>Beyond Meat</b>is a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.</p>\n<p>In August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875119289e70dc28e620fb5eeb2d291b\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p>\n<p><b>[Read More]</b> What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch</p>\n<p>Trip.com Group Ltd</p>\n<p>Following that, we have multinational online travel company<b>Trip.com</b>, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.</p>\n<p>After yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781e08ea2e30a4f9c94020727b3e77bc\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.</p>\n<p><b>Vail Resorts</b>is a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.</p>\n<p>Recently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c596fd2c2dc3ef4d15e9c9dfa89b8147\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p>\n<p><b>[Read More]</b> 4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now</p>\n<p>Costco Wholesale Corporation</p>\n<p>Next up, we will be taking a look at<b>Costco</b>. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.</p>\n<p>By and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0412ae414ccd0df0d5f93302bd037b56\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p>\n<p><b>[Read More]</b> Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist</p>\n<p>Stitch Fix Inc.</p>\n<p>Another name to know in the consumer stock space now would be<b>Stitch Fix</b>. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.</p>\n<p>Notably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?</p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-25 08:57 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-top-consumer-stocks-to-watch-ahead-of-october-2021-2021-09-24><strong>Nasdaq</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?\nThe past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-top-consumer-stocks-to-watch-ahead-of-october-2021-2021-09-24\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","COST":"好市多","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","ROKU":"Roku Inc","NKE":"耐克","TCOM":"携程网"},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-top-consumer-stocks-to-watch-ahead-of-october-2021-2021-09-24","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188909032","content_text":"Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?\nThe past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.\nEvidently, we could look at the likes ofRoku(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.\nAt the same time, there is some interesting movement going on withNike’s(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?\nBest Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today\n\nBeyond Meat Inc.(NASDAQ: BYND)\nTrip.com Group Ltd.(NASDAQ: TCOM)\nVail Resorts Inc.(NYSE: MTN)\nCostco Wholesale Corporation(NASDAQ: COST)\nStitch Fix Inc.(NASDAQ: SFIX)\n\nBeyond Meat Inc.\nBeyond Meatis a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.\nIn August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch\nTrip.com Group Ltd\nFollowing that, we have multinational online travel companyTrip.com, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.\nAfter yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.\nVail Resortsis a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.\nRecently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] 4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now\nCostco Wholesale Corporation\nNext up, we will be taking a look atCostco. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.\nBy and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist\nStitch Fix Inc.\nAnother name to know in the consumer stock space now would beStitch Fix. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.\nNotably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BYND":0.9,"COST":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"TCOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863705575,"gmtCreate":1632432667697,"gmtModify":1632728586616,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","listText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","text":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863705575","repostId":"2169667599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863040780,"gmtCreate":1632348701740,"gmtModify":1632801122370,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Blush] ","listText":"[Blush] ","text":"[Blush]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863040780","repostId":"1118101852","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118101852","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632302285,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118101852?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118101852","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInv","content":"<p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.</p>\n<p>Invoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.</p>\n<p>Wilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.</p>\n<p>A fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.</p>\n<p>His “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”</p>\n<p>The Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.</p>\n<p>The equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.</p>\n<p>On Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.</p>\n<p>The S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p>\n<p>Monday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.</p>\n<p>Wilson said that the break of the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.</p>\n<p>“Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.</p>\n<p>“I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.</p>\n<p>“I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.</p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-22 17:18 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInvoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118101852","content_text":"Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInvoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.\nWilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.\nA fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.\nHis “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”\nThe Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.\nThe equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.\nOn Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.\nThe S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMonday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.\nWilson said that the break of the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.\n“Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.\n“I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.\n“I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}