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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-30
  Pike it
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-30
  Google talkin sheet
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  1,864 评论
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-30
  Need likes
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-29
  Sell n like
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-29
  Like it brah
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-28
  Like pls thx
  Microsoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost<blockquote>微软因云推动而创下季度利润纪录</blockquote>
  (Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expecta
  Microsoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost<blockquote>微软因云推动而创下季度利润纪录</blockquote>
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-27
  Goinf to zero yo
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-27
  Like yo netflixker
  Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Netflix：计算其内在价值</blockquote>
  Summary Our forecasts are based purely on fundamentals. We expect Netflix to see margin expansion g
  Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Netflix：计算其内在价值</blockquote>
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-27
  Ey lik pls
  How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013<blockquote>2013年美联储缩减规模时10年期国债利率和标普500的表现如何</blockquote>
  In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slow
  How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013<blockquote>2013年美联储缩减规模时10年期国债利率和标普500的表现如何</blockquote>
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- jenxjenx
  ·2021-07-27
  Yo like pls
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brah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801747394","repostId":"2155729009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803198754,"gmtCreate":1627427134578,"gmtModify":1633765219200,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587023056098177","idStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls thx","listText":"Like pls thx","text":"Like pls thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803198754","repostId":"1155220013","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155220013","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627426975,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155220013?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost<blockquote>微软因云推动而创下季度利润纪录</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155220013","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expecta","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings, as demand soared for the software giant’s cloud-based services.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-微软公司周二公布了有史以来最赚钱的一个季度，收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，因为对这家软件巨头基于云的服务的需求飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares rose&nbsp;nearly 1% in after-hours trading, following the company’s year-to-date run of 30% that left investors with high expectations for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价在盘后交易中上涨近1%，此前该公司今年迄今已上涨30%，这让投资者对本季度抱有很高的期望。</blockquote></p><p> The pandemic-driven shift to remote work has boosted consumer appetite for cloud-based computing, helping companies including Microsoft, Amazon.com Inc’s cloud unit and Alphabet Inc’s Google Cloud.</p><p><blockquote>疫情推动的向远程工作的转变提振了消费者对基于云的计算的兴趣，帮助了微软、亚马逊公司的云部门和Alphabet公司的谷歌云等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue in its “Intelligent Cloud” segment rose 30% to $17.4 billion, with 51% growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, in the fourth quarter ended June 30. Analysts had expected 43.1% growth in Azure, according to consensus data from Visible Alpha.</p><p><blockquote>截至6月30日的第四季度，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了30%，达到174亿美元，Azure云计算业务增长了51%。根据Visible Alpha的一致数据，分析师此前预计Azure将增长43.1%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a very impressive report from Microsoft with the company easily surpassing expectations on the performance of almost all business units,” said Haris Anwar, senior analyst at Investing.com.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Haris Anwar表示：“微软发布的这份报告非常令人印象深刻，该公司几乎所有业务部门的业绩都轻松超出了预期。”</blockquote></p><p> He noted Azure’s growth and strong demand for the company’s legacy Office and software products.</p><p><blockquote>他注意到Azure的增长以及对该公司传统办公和软件产品的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> “That said, Microsoft’s stock has made a big run since the beginning of the pandemic, and is trading at rich multiples,” Anwar said. “After such a powerful rally, its shares may take a breather, especially when investors are still unclear how the demand scenario will evolve in the post-pandemic environment.”</p><p><blockquote>安华表示：“尽管如此，自疫情爆发以来，微软的股价大幅上涨，目前的市盈率很高。”“在如此强劲的反弹之后，其股价可能会喘口气，尤其是当投资者仍不清楚大流行后环境下需求情景将如何演变时。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s market capitalization stands at nearly $2.2 trillion, fueling concerns among some analysts that it may be overvalued. The stock has climbed nearly 30% so far this year, compared with 18% for the overall S&amp;P 500 Index, according to Refinitiv Eikon data based on Monday’s closing price.</p><p><blockquote>微软的市值接近2.2万亿美元，这加剧了一些分析师对其可能被高估的担忧。根据Refinitiv Eikon基于周一收盘价的数据，该股今年迄今已上涨近30%，而标普500整体指数的涨幅为18%。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue from personal computing, which includes Windows software and Xbox gaming consoles, rose 9% to $14.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>包括Windows软件和Xbox游戏机在内的个人计算收入增长9%，达到141亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But Xbox content and services revenue dipped, suggesting that a pandemic-fueled gaming boom is beginning to wane, said Paolo Pescatore, an analyst at PP Foresight. The company must strengthen its presence in the home to better compete with rivals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>但PP Foresight分析师Paolo Pescatore表示，Xbox内容和服务收入下降，表明大流行推动的游戏热潮开始消退。他补充说，该公司必须加强其在国内的影响力，以便更好地与竞争对手竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Some Microsoft hardware lines were affected by a shortage of components such as chips, said Kyle Vikstrom, director of Microsoft investor relations. Makers of cars to smartphones have grappled with an unprecedented chip shortage in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>微软投资者关系总监Kyle Vikstrom表示，一些微软硬件产品线受到芯片等零部件短缺的影响。最近几个季度，从汽车到智能手机的制造商都在努力应对前所未有的芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> “We are seeing supply chain constraints that are impacting Windows OEM and Surface ... and also impacting Xbox consoles,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们看到供应链限制正在影响Windows OEM和Surface……也影响Xbox游戏机，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> The chip shortage could also be contributing to Microsoft’s dip in Xbox content and services revenue, as constrained hardware sales lead to a weaker performance in services, said Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush Securities的Daniel Ives表示，芯片短缺也可能导致微软Xbox内容和服务收入下降，因为硬件销售受限导致服务表现疲软。</blockquote></p><p> “If there’s any lagging part of Microsoft, it’s the consumer piece,” he said. “I think that continues to be a work in progress.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果说微软有任何落后的部分，那就是消费者部分，”他说。“我认为这仍然是一项正在进行的工作。”</blockquote></p><p> Revenue rose 21% to $46.2 billion, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $44.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The company reported earnings of $2.17 per share, above the consensus estimate of $1.92.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，收入增长21%至462亿美元，超过分析师普遍预期的442.4亿美元。该公司报告每股收益为2.17美元，高于市场普遍预期的1.92美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost<blockquote>微软因云推动而创下季度利润纪录</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft scores record quarterly profit on cloud boost<blockquote>微软因云推动而创下季度利润纪录</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 07:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings, as demand soared for the software giant’s cloud-based services.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-微软公司周二公布了有史以来最赚钱的一个季度，收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，因为对这家软件巨头基于云的服务的需求飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares rose&nbsp;nearly 1% in after-hours trading, following the company’s year-to-date run of 30% that left investors with high expectations for the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司股价在盘后交易中上涨近1%，此前该公司今年迄今已上涨30%，这让投资者对本季度抱有很高的期望。</blockquote></p><p> The pandemic-driven shift to remote work has boosted consumer appetite for cloud-based computing, helping companies including Microsoft, Amazon.com Inc’s cloud unit and Alphabet Inc’s Google Cloud.</p><p><blockquote>疫情推动的向远程工作的转变提振了消费者对基于云的计算的兴趣，帮助了微软、亚马逊公司的云部门和Alphabet公司的谷歌云等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue in its “Intelligent Cloud” segment rose 30% to $17.4 billion, with 51% growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, in the fourth quarter ended June 30. Analysts had expected 43.1% growth in Azure, according to consensus data from Visible Alpha.</p><p><blockquote>截至6月30日的第四季度，其“智能云”部门的收入增长了30%，达到174亿美元，Azure云计算业务增长了51%。根据Visible Alpha的一致数据，分析师此前预计Azure将增长43.1%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s a very impressive report from Microsoft with the company easily surpassing expectations on the performance of almost all business units,” said Haris Anwar, senior analyst at Investing.com.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Haris Anwar表示：“微软发布的这份报告非常令人印象深刻，该公司几乎所有业务部门的业绩都轻松超出了预期。”</blockquote></p><p> He noted Azure’s growth and strong demand for the company’s legacy Office and software products.</p><p><blockquote>他注意到Azure的增长以及对该公司传统办公和软件产品的强劲需求。</blockquote></p><p> “That said, Microsoft’s stock has made a big run since the beginning of the pandemic, and is trading at rich multiples,” Anwar said. “After such a powerful rally, its shares may take a breather, especially when investors are still unclear how the demand scenario will evolve in the post-pandemic environment.”</p><p><blockquote>安华表示：“尽管如此，自疫情爆发以来，微软的股价大幅上涨，目前的市盈率很高。”“在如此强劲的反弹之后，其股价可能会喘口气，尤其是当投资者仍不清楚大流行后环境下需求情景将如何演变时。”</blockquote></p><p> Microsoft’s market capitalization stands at nearly $2.2 trillion, fueling concerns among some analysts that it may be overvalued. The stock has climbed nearly 30% so far this year, compared with 18% for the overall S&amp;P 500 Index, according to Refinitiv Eikon data based on Monday’s closing price.</p><p><blockquote>微软的市值接近2.2万亿美元，这加剧了一些分析师对其可能被高估的担忧。根据Refinitiv Eikon基于周一收盘价的数据，该股今年迄今已上涨近30%，而标普500整体指数的涨幅为18%。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue from personal computing, which includes Windows software and Xbox gaming consoles, rose 9% to $14.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>包括Windows软件和Xbox游戏机在内的个人计算收入增长9%，达到141亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But Xbox content and services revenue dipped, suggesting that a pandemic-fueled gaming boom is beginning to wane, said Paolo Pescatore, an analyst at PP Foresight. The company must strengthen its presence in the home to better compete with rivals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>但PP Foresight分析师Paolo Pescatore表示，Xbox内容和服务收入下降，表明大流行推动的游戏热潮开始消退。他补充说，该公司必须加强其在国内的影响力，以便更好地与竞争对手竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Some Microsoft hardware lines were affected by a shortage of components such as chips, said Kyle Vikstrom, director of Microsoft investor relations. Makers of cars to smartphones have grappled with an unprecedented chip shortage in recent quarters.</p><p><blockquote>微软投资者关系总监Kyle Vikstrom表示，一些微软硬件产品线受到芯片等零部件短缺的影响。最近几个季度，从汽车到智能手机的制造商都在努力应对前所未有的芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> “We are seeing supply chain constraints that are impacting Windows OEM and Surface ... and also impacting Xbox consoles,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“我们看到供应链限制正在影响Windows OEM和Surface……也影响Xbox游戏机，”她说。</blockquote></p><p> The chip shortage could also be contributing to Microsoft’s dip in Xbox content and services revenue, as constrained hardware sales lead to a weaker performance in services, said Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush Securities的Daniel Ives表示，芯片短缺也可能导致微软Xbox内容和服务收入下降，因为硬件销售受限导致服务表现疲软。</blockquote></p><p> “If there’s any lagging part of Microsoft, it’s the consumer piece,” he said. “I think that continues to be a work in progress.”</p><p><blockquote>“如果说微软有任何落后的部分，那就是消费者部分，”他说。“我认为这仍然是一项正在进行的工作。”</blockquote></p><p> Revenue rose 21% to $46.2 billion, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $44.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The company reported earnings of $2.17 per share, above the consensus estimate of $1.92.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，收入增长21%至462亿美元，超过分析师普遍预期的442.4亿美元。该公司报告每股收益为2.17美元，高于市场普遍预期的1.92美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/microsoft-results/update-3-microsoft-scores-record-quarterly-profit-on-cloud-boost-idUSL4N2P33TQ\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/microsoft-results/update-3-microsoft-scores-record-quarterly-profit-on-cloud-boost-idUSL4N2P33TQ","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155220013","content_text":"(Reuters) -Microsoft Corp posted its most profitable quarter on Tuesday, beating Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings, as demand soared for the software giant’s cloud-based services.\nIts shares rose nearly 1% in after-hours trading, following the company’s year-to-date run of 30% that left investors with high expectations for the quarter.\nThe pandemic-driven shift to remote work has boosted consumer appetite for cloud-based computing, helping companies including Microsoft, Amazon.com Inc’s cloud unit and Alphabet Inc’s Google Cloud.\nRevenue in its “Intelligent Cloud” segment rose 30% to $17.4 billion, with 51% growth in its Azure cloud-computing business, in the fourth quarter ended June 30. Analysts had expected 43.1% growth in Azure, according to consensus data from Visible Alpha.\n“It’s a very impressive report from Microsoft with the company easily surpassing expectations on the performance of almost all business units,” said Haris Anwar, senior analyst at Investing.com.\nHe noted Azure’s growth and strong demand for the company’s legacy Office and software products.\n“That said, Microsoft’s stock has made a big run since the beginning of the pandemic, and is trading at rich multiples,” Anwar said. “After such a powerful rally, its shares may take a breather, especially when investors are still unclear how the demand scenario will evolve in the post-pandemic environment.”\nMicrosoft’s market capitalization stands at nearly $2.2 trillion, fueling concerns among some analysts that it may be overvalued. The stock has climbed nearly 30% so far this year, compared with 18% for the overall S&P 500 Index, according to Refinitiv Eikon data based on Monday’s closing price.\nRevenue from personal computing, which includes Windows software and Xbox gaming consoles, rose 9% to $14.1 billion.\nBut Xbox content and services revenue dipped, suggesting that a pandemic-fueled gaming boom is beginning to wane, said Paolo Pescatore, an analyst at PP Foresight. The company must strengthen its presence in the home to better compete with rivals, he added.\nSome Microsoft hardware lines were affected by a shortage of components such as chips, said Kyle Vikstrom, director of Microsoft investor relations. Makers of cars to smartphones have grappled with an unprecedented chip shortage in recent quarters.\n“We are seeing supply chain constraints that are impacting Windows OEM and Surface ... and also impacting Xbox consoles,” she said.\nThe chip shortage could also be contributing to Microsoft’s dip in Xbox content and services revenue, as constrained hardware sales lead to a weaker performance in services, said Daniel Ives of Wedbush Securities.\n“If there’s any lagging part of Microsoft, it’s the consumer piece,” he said. “I think that continues to be a work in progress.”\nRevenue rose 21% to $46.2 billion, beating analysts’ consensus estimate of $44.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv. The company reported earnings of $2.17 per share, above the consensus estimate of $1.92.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809281767,"gmtCreate":1627372931359,"gmtModify":1633765631880,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587023056098177","idStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goinf to zero yo","listText":"Goinf to zero yo","text":"Goinf to zero yo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809281767","repostId":"2154813991","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809281296,"gmtCreate":1627372906915,"gmtModify":1633765632123,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587023056098177","idStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like yo netflixker","listText":"Like yo netflixker","text":"Like yo netflixker","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809281296","repostId":"1154159969","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154159969","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627372017,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154159969?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Netflix：计算其内在价值</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154159969","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOur forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.\nWe expect Netflix to see margin expansion g","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Our forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.</li>  <li>We expect Netflix to see margin expansion going forward.</li>  <li>Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a06802a1c9fe18b04bc7c3eae704b91\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们的预测纯粹基于基本面。</li><li>我们预计Netflix未来的利润率将会扩大。</li><li>在当前的市场条件下，Netflix的价值被低估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>帕斯卡·勒塞格雷坦/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Netflix Inc (NFLX) has the potential to perform well. However, we highlight what you need to consider before jumping into the stock. We base our forecast purely on the company's fundamentals. By doing so, we are able to point to the specific growth drivers rooted in numbers as opposed to perceived potential. In addition, we believe that Netflix's margins will expand going forward. Using the fundamentals allows us to more reasonably estimate the company's margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix Inc(NFLX)有潜力表现良好。然而，我们强调了在买入该股之前您需要考虑的事项。我们的预测纯粹基于公司的基本面。通过这样做，我们能够指出植根于数字而不是感知潜力的具体增长动力。此外，我们相信Netflix的利润率未来将会扩大。使用基本面可以让我们更合理地估计公司的利润率扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Forecasting is not easy and it's difficult to be precise. However, the point of forecasting is not to be right but to be reasonable. Our projections are based on the company's fundamentals. We try to determine what growth rates the company can fundamentally sustain up until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>预测并不容易，也很难做到精确。然而，预测的重点不是正确，而是合理。我们的预测基于公司的基本面。我们试图确定公司可以基本维持到2025年的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> We will begin with the growth rate we expect for fiscal year 2021. The first thing we need is to determine what will constitute as reinvestment. For Netflix, it will be research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, net investment in content, and change in net working capital.</p><p><blockquote>我们将从2021财年的预期增长率开始。我们需要做的第一件事是确定什么构成再投资。对于Netflix来说，将是研发、营销、资本支出、内容净投资以及净营运资本的变化。</blockquote></p><p> Please note that we measure net investment in content as the cash spent on developing content subtracted by the amortization of previously developed content. Our assumption is that the amortized amount is the \"maintenance content\" needed to maintain the interest of current users and doesn't contribute to growth. The net investment in content is what we consider the \"growth content\" that contributes to attracting new users or justifying price increases.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，我们将内容净投资衡量为开发内容花费的现金减去先前开发内容的摊销。我们的假设是，摊销金额是维持当前用户兴趣所需的“维护内容”，对增长没有贡献。内容的净投资是我们所认为的有助于吸引新用户或证明价格上涨合理性的“增长内容”。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, that depreciation and amortization expense is subtracted from the reinvestment rate as it is used as a proxy for maintenance capex that does not contribute to growth.</p><p><blockquote>此外，折旧和摊销费用从再投资率中扣除，因为它被用作对增长没有贡献的维护资本支出的代表。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to find the revenue-to-capital ratio. This measures how much revenue a company generates for each dollar in capital. Once we have both numbers, we multiply them to calculate the fundamental growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>下一步是找到收入资本比。这衡量公司每一美元资本产生的收入。一旦我们有了这两个数字，我们就把它们相乘来计算基本增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1190d7305518113889190a4e5d4e177\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"462\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the picture above, we see that the reinvestment rate was 21.44% of revenue and revenue to capital was 93.39%. Therefore, the fundamental growth rate for fiscal year 2021 equals 20.02%. This is slightly above analysts' expectations but by very little.</p><p><blockquote>在上图中，我们看到再投资率占收入的21.44%，收入占资本的比例为93.39%。因此，2021财年的基本增长率等于20.02%。这略高于分析师的预期，但幅度很小。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to determine the degree of operating leverage, which is a multiple that measures how much the operating income of a company will change in response to a change in sales. Netflix has had a ratio of over 2 over the past several years. To be conservative, we will use 2 and reduce it each year. In addition, we did the same thing with gross margins using a starting point of 1.08.</p><p><blockquote>下一步是确定运营杠杆程度，这是一个倍数，衡量公司的营业收入会因销售额的变化而发生多少变化。过去几年，Netflix的比率超过2。为了保守起见，我们将使用2，并每年减少它。此外，我们对毛利率做了同样的事情，起点为1.08。</blockquote></p><p> As the EBIT margin increases, the reinvestment rate decreases because R&amp;D and marketing expenses become a smaller percentage of revenue, resulting in a slowdown of growth. We measure this slowdown by setting R&amp;D and marketing to 70% of total operating expenses (percentage in fiscal year 2020). We then calculate the future fundamental growth rates with the projected numbers as follows:</p><p><blockquote>随着息税前利润率的提高，再投资率下降，因为研发和营销费用占收入的比例变小，导致增长放缓。我们通过将研发和营销设置为总运营费用的70%（2020财年的百分比）来衡量这种放缓。然后，我们用预测数字计算未来的基本增长率如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8251e55395490f4c6d6347fef3a9a08f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We used the average capital expenditure and D&amp;A margins of the last three years. Now we will input these numbers into a DCF using the company's weighted average cost of capital of 5% based on&nbsp;<b>current market conditions.</b>Please note that we grouped net content investment with capital expenditures.</p><p><blockquote>我们使用了过去三年的平均资本支出和D&amp;A利润率。现在，我们将使用公司5%的加权平均资本成本将这些数字输入到DCF中，基于<b>当前的市场状况。</b>请注意，我们将净内容投资与资本支出进行了分组。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb2441365f739f8ec307436cfd81926\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author using Finbox tools</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者使用Finbox工具</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, with a 5% discount rate, 21% tax rate, 2% terminal growth rate, and a forecast based on fundamentals, the company has the potential for 24.6% upside. Of course, discount rates are always changing and not everyone likes to use current discount rates. Therefore, we made the chart below to demonstrate the fair value at each discount rate and terminal growth rate:</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，5%的贴现率、21%的税率、2%的终端增长率以及基于基本面的预测，该公司有24.6%的上涨潜力。当然，折扣率总是在变化，并不是每个人都喜欢使用当前的折扣率。因此，我们制作下图以展示按各折现率及最终增长率计算的公允价值：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a824dfed49d58dacb3f22cad000213\" tg-width=\"430\" tg-height=\"209\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As you can see, if interest rates stay low for an extended period of time, Netflix can potentially see solid upside. However, there isn't much room for changes in the discount rates, and therefore should be careful if you believe discount rates are going up.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，如果利率长期保持在低位，Netflix可能会看到强劲的上涨空间。然而，贴现率的变化空间不大，因此如果您认为贴现率正在上升，请小心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Checking for Consistencies in the Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>检查预测的一致性</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's make sure everything makes sense in the forecast. We'll begin with revenue growth. You can see that we expect revenue growth to accelerate in 2022 before gradually decreasing in the following years. This is because we expect Netflix to increase its net content investment in 2021. The company has stated that it willincrease overall investment in contentto $17 billion, up from $11.8 billion in 2020. This consequently leads to a higher reinvestment rate and the potential to accelerate revenue growth. This seems reasonable to us because it has happened to Netflix in the past where revenue growth has accelerated.</p><p><blockquote>让我们确保预测中的一切都有意义。我们将从收入增长开始。您可以看到，我们预计收入增长将在2022年加速，然后在随后几年逐渐下降。这是因为我们预计Netflix将在2021年增加净内容投资。该公司表示，将把内容总投资从2020年的118亿美元增加到170亿美元。因此，这导致更高的再投资率和加速收入增长的潜力。这对我们来说似乎是合理的，因为Netflix过去就发生过这种情况，收入增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4008559ff06f06414badc2e9f7509765\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"71\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, the net content investment in our forecast is similar to the absolute amounts Netflix spent pre-pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们预测中的净内容投资与Netflix在大流行前的绝对支出金额相似。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, management expects free cash flow for this year to be break even or slightly higher. It's hard to say what slightly above means for the management team. Although $119 million is exactly slightly above breakeven, it is still significantly less than what it was in 2020. However, management hasn't specified whether it is unlevered or levered free cash flow and it is possible that unlevered free cash flow (which is what we used) might be higher. It is also possible that Netflix might have a stronger than expected second half. Regardless, the $119 million is immaterial to the valuation overall.</p><p><blockquote>此外，管理层预计今年的自由现金流将达到收支平衡或略高。很难说稍微上面一点对管理团队意味着什么。尽管1.19亿美元略高于盈亏平衡，但仍明显低于2020年。然而，管理层尚未具体说明它是无杠杆还是杠杆自由现金流，并且无杠杆自由现金流（我们使用的）可能会更高。Netflix下半年的表现也有可能强于预期。无论如何，1.19亿美元对于整体估值来说并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生长催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> An obvious growth catalyst that impacts our forecast is the company's increase in content spend. Content is the most important factor when it comes to entertainment-based businesses. Netflix can have the most technologically advanced platform in the world but, if the content is boring, then nobody would use it.</p><p><blockquote>影响我们预测的一个明显的增长催化剂是该公司内容支出的增加。对于基于娱乐的业务来说，内容是最重要的因素。网飞可以拥有世界上技术最先进的平台，但如果内容很无聊，那么没有人会使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, although streaming has become increasingly popular, cable still accounts for the largest share of total tv time in the US:</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管流媒体越来越受欢迎，但有线电视仍占美国电视总时间的最大份额：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa87184a65693ead5a02993493df64f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the streaming market as a whole is only 27% of the total share. Despite all the talk about increasing competition, there is still plenty of room for the streaming segment to grow as a whole. Therefore, even if Netflix loses market share to other streamers, it will still be able to grow in absolute terms.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，流媒体市场整体仅占总份额的27%。尽管人们都在谈论竞争加剧，但流媒体领域整体仍有很大的增长空间。因此，即使Netflix的市场份额输给了其他流媒体，它仍然能够在绝对值上增长。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, Netflix's venture intovideo gamescould be beneficial if executed correctly. However, we don't have too much conviction in this idea just yet, which we talk more about in the \"risks\" section below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果执行得当，Netflix进军视频游戏可能是有益的。然而，我们对这个想法还没有太多的信心，我们将在下面的“风险”部分详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> We will begin with video games. The video game industry is very tough. With all the money that Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) generates, it hasstruggled to releasea successful game since starting the division in 2014. Likewise, Alphabet Inc (GOOG) has suffered asimilar problem. This implies that developing successful video games is not as easy as throwing money at developers and requires a certain level of specialization.</p><p><blockquote>我们将从电子游戏开始。电子游戏行业非常艰难。自2014年成立该部门以来，凭借亚马逊公司(AMZN)赚取的所有资金，该公司一直在努力发布一款成功的游戏。同样，Alphabet公司（GOOG）也遭遇了类似的问题。这意味着开发成功的视频游戏并不像向开发者砸钱那么容易，需要一定程度的专业化。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of throwing money, Netflix's increased spend on content may not yield positive results if it is rushed. Thisarticledemonstrates that people can notice when projects are rushed. Although the article is from 2019, it is an important reminder that the quality of the content is likely to be more important than the quantity. If Netflix fails to deliver on quality, it could see subscriber counts drop.</p><p><blockquote>说到砸钱，网飞在内容上增加的支出如果操之过急，可能不会产生积极的结果。这篇文章证明了人们可以注意到项目何时仓促进行。虽然这篇文章是2019年的，但它是一个重要的提醒，内容的质量可能比数量更重要。如果Netflix未能提供高质量的服务，用户数量可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions; however, it doesn't provide enough of a margin of safety if the interest/discount rates increase. Thus, although Netflix may continue to do well, we will stay on the sidelines for now.</p><p><blockquote>在当前的市场条件下，Netflix的价值被低估；然而，如果利率/贴现率上升，它不能提供足够的安全边际。因此，尽管Netflix可能会继续表现良好，但我们目前仍将保持观望。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Netflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Netflix：计算其内在价值</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNetflix: Calculating Its Intrinsic Value<blockquote>Netflix：计算其内在价值</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 15:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Our forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.</li>  <li>We expect Netflix to see margin expansion going forward.</li>  <li>Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a06802a1c9fe18b04bc7c3eae704b91\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1022\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>我们的预测纯粹基于基本面。</li><li>我们预计Netflix未来的利润率将会扩大。</li><li>在当前的市场条件下，Netflix的价值被低估。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>帕斯卡·勒塞格雷坦/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Netflix Inc (NFLX) has the potential to perform well. However, we highlight what you need to consider before jumping into the stock. We base our forecast purely on the company's fundamentals. By doing so, we are able to point to the specific growth drivers rooted in numbers as opposed to perceived potential. In addition, we believe that Netflix's margins will expand going forward. Using the fundamentals allows us to more reasonably estimate the company's margin expansion.</p><p><blockquote>Netflix Inc(NFLX)有潜力表现良好。然而，我们强调了在买入该股之前您需要考虑的事项。我们的预测纯粹基于公司的基本面。通过这样做，我们能够指出植根于数字而不是感知潜力的具体增长动力。此外，我们相信Netflix的利润率未来将会扩大。使用基本面可以让我们更合理地估计公司的利润率扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Forecasting is not easy and it's difficult to be precise. However, the point of forecasting is not to be right but to be reasonable. Our projections are based on the company's fundamentals. We try to determine what growth rates the company can fundamentally sustain up until 2025.</p><p><blockquote>预测并不容易，也很难做到精确。然而，预测的重点不是正确，而是合理。我们的预测基于公司的基本面。我们试图确定公司可以基本维持到2025年的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> We will begin with the growth rate we expect for fiscal year 2021. The first thing we need is to determine what will constitute as reinvestment. For Netflix, it will be research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, net investment in content, and change in net working capital.</p><p><blockquote>我们将从2021财年的预期增长率开始。我们需要做的第一件事是确定什么构成再投资。对于Netflix来说，将是研发、营销、资本支出、内容净投资以及净营运资本的变化。</blockquote></p><p> Please note that we measure net investment in content as the cash spent on developing content subtracted by the amortization of previously developed content. Our assumption is that the amortized amount is the \"maintenance content\" needed to maintain the interest of current users and doesn't contribute to growth. The net investment in content is what we consider the \"growth content\" that contributes to attracting new users or justifying price increases.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，我们将内容净投资衡量为开发内容花费的现金减去先前开发内容的摊销。我们的假设是，摊销金额是维持当前用户兴趣所需的“维护内容”，对增长没有贡献。内容的净投资是我们所认为的有助于吸引新用户或证明价格上涨合理性的“增长内容”。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, that depreciation and amortization expense is subtracted from the reinvestment rate as it is used as a proxy for maintenance capex that does not contribute to growth.</p><p><blockquote>此外，折旧和摊销费用从再投资率中扣除，因为它被用作对增长没有贡献的维护资本支出的代表。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to find the revenue-to-capital ratio. This measures how much revenue a company generates for each dollar in capital. Once we have both numbers, we multiply them to calculate the fundamental growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>下一步是找到收入资本比。这衡量公司每一美元资本产生的收入。一旦我们有了这两个数字，我们就把它们相乘来计算基本增长率。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1190d7305518113889190a4e5d4e177\" tg-width=\"354\" tg-height=\"462\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the picture above, we see that the reinvestment rate was 21.44% of revenue and revenue to capital was 93.39%. Therefore, the fundamental growth rate for fiscal year 2021 equals 20.02%. This is slightly above analysts' expectations but by very little.</p><p><blockquote>在上图中，我们看到再投资率占收入的21.44%，收入占资本的比例为93.39%。因此，2021财年的基本增长率等于20.02%。这略高于分析师的预期，但幅度很小。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to determine the degree of operating leverage, which is a multiple that measures how much the operating income of a company will change in response to a change in sales. Netflix has had a ratio of over 2 over the past several years. To be conservative, we will use 2 and reduce it each year. In addition, we did the same thing with gross margins using a starting point of 1.08.</p><p><blockquote>下一步是确定运营杠杆程度，这是一个倍数，衡量公司的营业收入会因销售额的变化而发生多少变化。过去几年，Netflix的比率超过2。为了保守起见，我们将使用2，并每年减少它。此外，我们对毛利率做了同样的事情，起点为1.08。</blockquote></p><p> As the EBIT margin increases, the reinvestment rate decreases because R&amp;D and marketing expenses become a smaller percentage of revenue, resulting in a slowdown of growth. We measure this slowdown by setting R&amp;D and marketing to 70% of total operating expenses (percentage in fiscal year 2020). We then calculate the future fundamental growth rates with the projected numbers as follows:</p><p><blockquote>随着息税前利润率的提高，再投资率下降，因为研发和营销费用占收入的比例变小，导致增长放缓。我们通过将研发和营销设置为总运营费用的70%（2020财年的百分比）来衡量这种放缓。然后，我们用预测数字计算未来的基本增长率如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8251e55395490f4c6d6347fef3a9a08f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"605\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We used the average capital expenditure and D&amp;A margins of the last three years. Now we will input these numbers into a DCF using the company's weighted average cost of capital of 5% based on&nbsp;<b>current market conditions.</b>Please note that we grouped net content investment with capital expenditures.</p><p><blockquote>我们使用了过去三年的平均资本支出和D&amp;A利润率。现在，我们将使用公司5%的加权平均资本成本将这些数字输入到DCF中，基于<b>当前的市场状况。</b>请注意，我们将净内容投资与资本支出进行了分组。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cfb2441365f739f8ec307436cfd81926\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"259\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author using Finbox tools</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者使用Finbox工具</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, with a 5% discount rate, 21% tax rate, 2% terminal growth rate, and a forecast based on fundamentals, the company has the potential for 24.6% upside. Of course, discount rates are always changing and not everyone likes to use current discount rates. Therefore, we made the chart below to demonstrate the fair value at each discount rate and terminal growth rate:</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，5%的贴现率、21%的税率、2%的终端增长率以及基于基本面的预测，该公司有24.6%的上涨潜力。当然，折扣率总是在变化，并不是每个人都喜欢使用当前的折扣率。因此，我们制作下图以展示按各折现率及最终增长率计算的公允价值：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8a824dfed49d58dacb3f22cad000213\" tg-width=\"430\" tg-height=\"209\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As you can see, if interest rates stay low for an extended period of time, Netflix can potentially see solid upside. However, there isn't much room for changes in the discount rates, and therefore should be careful if you believe discount rates are going up.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，如果利率长期保持在低位，Netflix可能会看到强劲的上涨空间。然而，贴现率的变化空间不大，因此如果您认为贴现率正在上升，请小心。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Checking for Consistencies in the Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>检查预测的一致性</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's make sure everything makes sense in the forecast. We'll begin with revenue growth. You can see that we expect revenue growth to accelerate in 2022 before gradually decreasing in the following years. This is because we expect Netflix to increase its net content investment in 2021. The company has stated that it willincrease overall investment in contentto $17 billion, up from $11.8 billion in 2020. This consequently leads to a higher reinvestment rate and the potential to accelerate revenue growth. This seems reasonable to us because it has happened to Netflix in the past where revenue growth has accelerated.</p><p><blockquote>让我们确保预测中的一切都有意义。我们将从收入增长开始。您可以看到，我们预计收入增长将在2022年加速，然后在随后几年逐渐下降。这是因为我们预计Netflix将在2021年增加净内容投资。该公司表示，将把内容总投资从2020年的118亿美元增加到170亿美元。因此，这导致更高的再投资率和加速收入增长的潜力。这对我们来说似乎是合理的，因为Netflix过去就发生过这种情况，收入增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4008559ff06f06414badc2e9f7509765\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"71\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, the net content investment in our forecast is similar to the absolute amounts Netflix spent pre-pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们预测中的净内容投资与Netflix在大流行前的绝对支出金额相似。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, management expects free cash flow for this year to be break even or slightly higher. It's hard to say what slightly above means for the management team. Although $119 million is exactly slightly above breakeven, it is still significantly less than what it was in 2020. However, management hasn't specified whether it is unlevered or levered free cash flow and it is possible that unlevered free cash flow (which is what we used) might be higher. It is also possible that Netflix might have a stronger than expected second half. Regardless, the $119 million is immaterial to the valuation overall.</p><p><blockquote>此外，管理层预计今年的自由现金流将达到收支平衡或略高。很难说稍微上面一点对管理团队意味着什么。尽管1.19亿美元略高于盈亏平衡，但仍明显低于2020年。然而，管理层尚未具体说明它是无杠杆还是杠杆自由现金流，并且无杠杆自由现金流（我们使用的）可能会更高。Netflix下半年的表现也有可能强于预期。无论如何，1.19亿美元对于整体估值来说并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Catalysts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>生长催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p> An obvious growth catalyst that impacts our forecast is the company's increase in content spend. Content is the most important factor when it comes to entertainment-based businesses. Netflix can have the most technologically advanced platform in the world but, if the content is boring, then nobody would use it.</p><p><blockquote>影响我们预测的一个明显的增长催化剂是该公司内容支出的增加。对于基于娱乐的业务来说，内容是最重要的因素。网飞可以拥有世界上技术最先进的平台，但如果内容很无聊，那么没有人会使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, although streaming has become increasingly popular, cable still accounts for the largest share of total tv time in the US:</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管流媒体越来越受欢迎，但有线电视仍占美国电视总时间的最大份额：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa87184a65693ead5a02993493df64f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"434\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As you can see, the streaming market as a whole is only 27% of the total share. Despite all the talk about increasing competition, there is still plenty of room for the streaming segment to grow as a whole. Therefore, even if Netflix loses market share to other streamers, it will still be able to grow in absolute terms.</p><p><blockquote>正如您所看到的，流媒体市场整体仅占总份额的27%。尽管人们都在谈论竞争加剧，但流媒体领域整体仍有很大的增长空间。因此，即使Netflix的市场份额输给了其他流媒体，它仍然能够在绝对值上增长。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, Netflix's venture intovideo gamescould be beneficial if executed correctly. However, we don't have too much conviction in this idea just yet, which we talk more about in the \"risks\" section below.</p><p><blockquote>最后，如果执行得当，Netflix进军视频游戏可能是有益的。然而，我们对这个想法还没有太多的信心，我们将在下面的“风险”部分详细讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> We will begin with video games. The video game industry is very tough. With all the money that Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) generates, it hasstruggled to releasea successful game since starting the division in 2014. Likewise, Alphabet Inc (GOOG) has suffered asimilar problem. This implies that developing successful video games is not as easy as throwing money at developers and requires a certain level of specialization.</p><p><blockquote>我们将从电子游戏开始。电子游戏行业非常艰难。自2014年成立该部门以来，凭借亚马逊公司(AMZN)赚取的所有资金，该公司一直在努力发布一款成功的游戏。同样，Alphabet公司（GOOG）也遭遇了类似的问题。这意味着开发成功的视频游戏并不像向开发者砸钱那么容易，需要一定程度的专业化。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking of throwing money, Netflix's increased spend on content may not yield positive results if it is rushed. Thisarticledemonstrates that people can notice when projects are rushed. Although the article is from 2019, it is an important reminder that the quality of the content is likely to be more important than the quantity. If Netflix fails to deliver on quality, it could see subscriber counts drop.</p><p><blockquote>说到砸钱，网飞在内容上增加的支出如果操之过急，可能不会产生积极的结果。这篇文章证明了人们可以注意到项目何时仓促进行。虽然这篇文章是2019年的，但它是一个重要的提醒，内容的质量可能比数量更重要。如果Netflix未能提供高质量的服务，用户数量可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Netflix is undervalued under current market conditions; however, it doesn't provide enough of a margin of safety if the interest/discount rates increase. Thus, although Netflix may continue to do well, we will stay on the sidelines for now.</p><p><blockquote>在当前的市场条件下，Netflix的价值被低估；然而，如果利率/贴现率上升，它不能提供足够的安全边际。因此，尽管Netflix可能会继续表现良好，但我们目前仍将保持观望。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441533-netflix-calculating-its-intrinsic-value\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441533-netflix-calculating-its-intrinsic-value","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154159969","content_text":"Summary\n\nOur forecasts are based purely on fundamentals.\nWe expect Netflix to see margin expansion going forward.\nNetflix is undervalued under current market conditions.\n\nPascal Le Segretain/Getty Images News\nNetflix Inc (NFLX) has the potential to perform well. However, we highlight what you need to consider before jumping into the stock. We base our forecast purely on the company's fundamentals. By doing so, we are able to point to the specific growth drivers rooted in numbers as opposed to perceived potential. In addition, we believe that Netflix's margins will expand going forward. Using the fundamentals allows us to more reasonably estimate the company's margin expansion.\nValuation\nForecasting is not easy and it's difficult to be precise. However, the point of forecasting is not to be right but to be reasonable. Our projections are based on the company's fundamentals. We try to determine what growth rates the company can fundamentally sustain up until 2025.\nWe will begin with the growth rate we expect for fiscal year 2021. The first thing we need is to determine what will constitute as reinvestment. For Netflix, it will be research and development, marketing, capital expenditures, net investment in content, and change in net working capital.\nPlease note that we measure net investment in content as the cash spent on developing content subtracted by the amortization of previously developed content. Our assumption is that the amortized amount is the \"maintenance content\" needed to maintain the interest of current users and doesn't contribute to growth. The net investment in content is what we consider the \"growth content\" that contributes to attracting new users or justifying price increases.\nIn addition, that depreciation and amortization expense is subtracted from the reinvestment rate as it is used as a proxy for maintenance capex that does not contribute to growth.\nThe next step is to find the revenue-to-capital ratio. This measures how much revenue a company generates for each dollar in capital. Once we have both numbers, we multiply them to calculate the fundamental growth rate.\nSource: Author\nIn the picture above, we see that the reinvestment rate was 21.44% of revenue and revenue to capital was 93.39%. Therefore, the fundamental growth rate for fiscal year 2021 equals 20.02%. This is slightly above analysts' expectations but by very little.\nThe next step is to determine the degree of operating leverage, which is a multiple that measures how much the operating income of a company will change in response to a change in sales. Netflix has had a ratio of over 2 over the past several years. To be conservative, we will use 2 and reduce it each year. In addition, we did the same thing with gross margins using a starting point of 1.08.\nAs the EBIT margin increases, the reinvestment rate decreases because R&D and marketing expenses become a smaller percentage of revenue, resulting in a slowdown of growth. We measure this slowdown by setting R&D and marketing to 70% of total operating expenses (percentage in fiscal year 2020). We then calculate the future fundamental growth rates with the projected numbers as follows:\nSource: Author\nWe used the average capital expenditure and D&A margins of the last three years. Now we will input these numbers into a DCF using the company's weighted average cost of capital of 5% based on current market conditions.Please note that we grouped net content investment with capital expenditures.\nSource: Author using Finbox tools\nAs you can see, with a 5% discount rate, 21% tax rate, 2% terminal growth rate, and a forecast based on fundamentals, the company has the potential for 24.6% upside. Of course, discount rates are always changing and not everyone likes to use current discount rates. Therefore, we made the chart below to demonstrate the fair value at each discount rate and terminal growth rate:\nSource: Author\nAs you can see, if interest rates stay low for an extended period of time, Netflix can potentially see solid upside. However, there isn't much room for changes in the discount rates, and therefore should be careful if you believe discount rates are going up.\nChecking for Consistencies in the Forecast\nLet's make sure everything makes sense in the forecast. We'll begin with revenue growth. You can see that we expect revenue growth to accelerate in 2022 before gradually decreasing in the following years. This is because we expect Netflix to increase its net content investment in 2021. The company has stated that it willincrease overall investment in contentto $17 billion, up from $11.8 billion in 2020. This consequently leads to a higher reinvestment rate and the potential to accelerate revenue growth. This seems reasonable to us because it has happened to Netflix in the past where revenue growth has accelerated.\nSource: Author\nIn addition, the net content investment in our forecast is similar to the absolute amounts Netflix spent pre-pandemic.\nFurthermore, management expects free cash flow for this year to be break even or slightly higher. It's hard to say what slightly above means for the management team. Although $119 million is exactly slightly above breakeven, it is still significantly less than what it was in 2020. However, management hasn't specified whether it is unlevered or levered free cash flow and it is possible that unlevered free cash flow (which is what we used) might be higher. It is also possible that Netflix might have a stronger than expected second half. Regardless, the $119 million is immaterial to the valuation overall.\nGrowth Catalysts\nAn obvious growth catalyst that impacts our forecast is the company's increase in content spend. Content is the most important factor when it comes to entertainment-based businesses. Netflix can have the most technologically advanced platform in the world but, if the content is boring, then nobody would use it.\nIn addition, although streaming has become increasingly popular, cable still accounts for the largest share of total tv time in the US:\n\nAs you can see, the streaming market as a whole is only 27% of the total share. Despite all the talk about increasing competition, there is still plenty of room for the streaming segment to grow as a whole. Therefore, even if Netflix loses market share to other streamers, it will still be able to grow in absolute terms.\nFinally, Netflix's venture intovideo gamescould be beneficial if executed correctly. However, we don't have too much conviction in this idea just yet, which we talk more about in the \"risks\" section below.\nRisks\nWe will begin with video games. The video game industry is very tough. With all the money that Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) generates, it hasstruggled to releasea successful game since starting the division in 2014. Likewise, Alphabet Inc (GOOG) has suffered asimilar problem. This implies that developing successful video games is not as easy as throwing money at developers and requires a certain level of specialization.\nSpeaking of throwing money, Netflix's increased spend on content may not yield positive results if it is rushed. Thisarticledemonstrates that people can notice when projects are rushed. Although the article is from 2019, it is an important reminder that the quality of the content is likely to be more important than the quantity. If Netflix fails to deliver on quality, it could see subscriber counts drop.\nFinal Thoughts\nNetflix is undervalued under current market conditions; however, it doesn't provide enough of a margin of safety if the interest/discount rates increase. Thus, although Netflix may continue to do well, we will stay on the sidelines for now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809283665,"gmtCreate":1627372886057,"gmtModify":1633765633034,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587023056098177","idStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ey lik pls","listText":"Ey lik pls","text":"Ey lik pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809283665","repostId":"2154875967","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2154875967","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627372266,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2154875967?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 15:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013<blockquote>2013年美联储缩减规模时10年期国债利率和标普500的表现如何</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2154875967","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slow","content":"<p>In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"taper tantrum .\"</p><p><blockquote>在大衰退之后，美联储花了大约五年时间才开始放缓其备受争议的大规模债券购买计划，最终使2013年成为“缩减恐慌”之年。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials have said they'd rather avoid a repeat of that episode, when it comes to eventually scaling back its $120 billion-a-month, pandemic-era asset-purchase program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员表示，在最终缩减大流行时期每月1200亿美元的资产购买计划时，他们宁愿避免这一事件重演。</blockquote></p><p> And while it felt like the U.S. stock and bond markets both freaked out in 2013, a review of the S&amp;P 500's performance in that tumultuous year shows it turned out pretty well for equity investors who stayed the course.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2013年美国股市和债市都陷入了恐慌，但对标普500在那动荡的一年中表现的回顾表明，对于坚持到底的股票投资者来说，结果相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> Following a roughly 6% pullback post-Fed taper announcement, the S&amp;P 500 finished the year higher by about 30%, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的数据显示，美联储宣布缩减购债规模后，标普500股价下跌约6%，今年收盘上涨约30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5888ee701d08887e5b8d11bca7d6e30\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>S&amp;P 500 rose 30% in 2013. WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500在2013年上涨了30%。富国银行投资研究所</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly doubled in six months from a low of almost 1.5% to roughly 3.1% by that December, leading to higher borrowing costs that rippled through the U.S. economy, from commercial real-estate owners to U.S. corporations <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$(LQD)$</a>.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，10年期美国国债收益率在6个月内几乎翻了一番，从近1.5%的低点升至去年12月的约3.1%，导致借贷成本上升，从商业地产所有者到美国企业，波及美国经济<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$(LQD)$</a>.</blockquote></p><p> \"Higher inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a less dovish Fed could potentially cause the market to pause,\" Chris Haverland, Wells Fargo Institute's global equity strategist wrote, in a Monday note.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行研究所全球股票策略师克里斯·哈弗兰在周一的一份报告中写道：“通胀上升、长期利率上升以及美联储不那么鸽派可能会导致市场暂停。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, equities have historically performed well through these events, even if there was some initial selling pressure.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，即使最初存在一些抛售压力，股市在这些事件中历来表现良好。”</blockquote></p><p> Haverland thinks the Fed may announce plans to reduce its asset purchases later this year, which could lift longer-duration Treasury rates, including the 10-year, from its current 1.3% range. He also prefers to stick to his wheelhouse in equities over bonds.</p><p><blockquote>哈弗兰认为，美联储可能会在今年晚些时候宣布减少资产购买的计划，这可能会将包括10年期国债在内的长期国债利率从目前的1.3%区间上调。他还更愿意坚持自己在股票而不是债券方面的专长。</blockquote></p><p> \"If the market corrects, we would view it as an opportunity to fill our equity positions that may be below strategic or tactical targets,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“如果市场调整，我们会将其视为填补可能低于战略或战术目标的股票头寸的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $80 billion of Treasurys each month and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while increasing its balance sheet to about $8.2 trillion .</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，美联储每月购买约800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），同时将其资产负债表增加到约8.2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Some Fed officials have been debating buying, as a first step to withdrawing some support, particularly since the U.S. housing market has been red-hot during the COVID crisis, albeit with recent signs of cooling.</p><p><blockquote>一些美联储官员一直在讨论购买，作为撤回部分支持的第一步，特别是因为美国房地产市场在新冠危机期间一直炙手可热，尽管最近有降温迹象。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于周二开始为期两天的政策会议，并于周三下午2点发表声明。东部，随后是美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks drifted higher into record territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index claiming new closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周一走高，创历史新高，道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500和纳斯达克综合指数创下收盘新高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013<blockquote>2013年美联储缩减规模时10年期国债利率和标普500的表现如何</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow the 10-year Treasury rate and S&P 500 performed when the Fed tapered in 2013<blockquote>2013年美联储缩减规模时10年期国债利率和标普500的表现如何</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 15:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"taper tantrum .\"</p><p><blockquote>在大衰退之后，美联储花了大约五年时间才开始放缓其备受争议的大规模债券购买计划，最终使2013年成为“缩减恐慌”之年。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve officials have said they'd rather avoid a repeat of that episode, when it comes to eventually scaling back its $120 billion-a-month, pandemic-era asset-purchase program.</p><p><blockquote>美联储官员表示，在最终缩减大流行时期每月1200亿美元的资产购买计划时，他们宁愿避免这一事件重演。</blockquote></p><p> And while it felt like the U.S. stock and bond markets both freaked out in 2013, a review of the S&amp;P 500's performance in that tumultuous year shows it turned out pretty well for equity investors who stayed the course.</p><p><blockquote>尽管2013年美国股市和债市都陷入了恐慌，但对标普500在那动荡的一年中表现的回顾表明，对于坚持到底的股票投资者来说，结果相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> Following a roughly 6% pullback post-Fed taper announcement, the S&amp;P 500 finished the year higher by about 30%, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行投资研究所(Wells Fargo Investment Institute)的数据显示，美联储宣布缩减购债规模后，标普500股价下跌约6%，今年收盘上涨约30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5888ee701d08887e5b8d11bca7d6e30\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>S&amp;P 500 rose 30% in 2013. WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500在2013年上涨了30%。富国银行投资研究所</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly doubled in six months from a low of almost 1.5% to roughly 3.1% by that December, leading to higher borrowing costs that rippled through the U.S. economy, from commercial real-estate owners to U.S. corporations <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$(LQD)$</a>.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，10年期美国国债收益率在6个月内几乎翻了一番，从近1.5%的低点升至去年12月的约3.1%，导致借贷成本上升，从商业地产所有者到美国企业，波及美国经济<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LQD\">$(LQD)$</a>.</blockquote></p><p> \"Higher inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a less dovish Fed could potentially cause the market to pause,\" Chris Haverland, Wells Fargo Institute's global equity strategist wrote, in a Monday note.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行研究所全球股票策略师克里斯·哈弗兰在周一的一份报告中写道：“通胀上升、长期利率上升以及美联储不那么鸽派可能会导致市场暂停。”</blockquote></p><p> \"However, equities have historically performed well through these events, even if there was some initial selling pressure.\"</p><p><blockquote>“然而，即使最初存在一些抛售压力，股市在这些事件中历来表现良好。”</blockquote></p><p> Haverland thinks the Fed may announce plans to reduce its asset purchases later this year, which could lift longer-duration Treasury rates, including the 10-year, from its current 1.3% range. He also prefers to stick to his wheelhouse in equities over bonds.</p><p><blockquote>哈弗兰认为，美联储可能会在今年晚些时候宣布减少资产购买的计划，这可能会将包括10年期国债在内的长期国债利率从目前的1.3%区间上调。他还更愿意坚持自己在股票而不是债券方面的专长。</blockquote></p><p> \"If the market corrects, we would view it as an opportunity to fill our equity positions that may be below strategic or tactical targets,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示：“如果市场调整，我们会将其视为填补可能低于战略或战术目标的股票头寸的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> During the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $80 billion of Treasurys each month and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while increasing its balance sheet to about $8.2 trillion .</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，美联储每月购买约800亿美元的美国国债和400亿美元的机构抵押贷款支持证券（MBS），同时将其资产负债表增加到约8.2万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Some Fed officials have been debating buying, as a first step to withdrawing some support, particularly since the U.S. housing market has been red-hot during the COVID crisis, albeit with recent signs of cooling.</p><p><blockquote>一些美联储官员一直在讨论购买，作为撤回部分支持的第一步，特别是因为美国房地产市场在新冠危机期间一直炙手可热，尽管最近有降温迹象。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于周二开始为期两天的政策会议，并于周三下午2点发表声明。东部，随后是美联储主席鲍威尔的新闻发布会。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks drifted higher into record territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index claiming new closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市周一走高，创历史新高，道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500和纳斯达克综合指数创下收盘新高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","LQD":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx投资级公司债","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","OEX":"标普100","MBB":"美国按揭抵押债券ETF-iShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-10-year-treasury-rate-and-s-p-500-performed-when-the-fed-tapered-in-2013-11627344095?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2154875967","content_text":"In the wake of the Great Recession, it took about five years for the U.S. central bank to start slowing down its controversial large-scale bond-buying program, ultimately making 2013 the year of the \"taper tantrum .\"\nFederal Reserve officials have said they'd rather avoid a repeat of that episode, when it comes to eventually scaling back its $120 billion-a-month, pandemic-era asset-purchase program.\nAnd while it felt like the U.S. stock and bond markets both freaked out in 2013, a review of the S&P 500's performance in that tumultuous year shows it turned out pretty well for equity investors who stayed the course.\nFollowing a roughly 6% pullback post-Fed taper announcement, the S&P 500 finished the year higher by about 30%, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.\nS&P 500 rose 30% in 2013. WELLS FARGO INVESTMENT INSTITUTE\nAt the same time, the 10-year Treasury yield nearly doubled in six months from a low of almost 1.5% to roughly 3.1% by that December, leading to higher borrowing costs that rippled through the U.S. economy, from commercial real-estate owners to U.S. corporations $(LQD)$.\n\"Higher inflation, rising long-term interest rates, and a less dovish Fed could potentially cause the market to pause,\" Chris Haverland, Wells Fargo Institute's global equity strategist wrote, in a Monday note.\n\"However, equities have historically performed well through these events, even if there was some initial selling pressure.\"\nHaverland thinks the Fed may announce plans to reduce its asset purchases later this year, which could lift longer-duration Treasury rates, including the 10-year, from its current 1.3% range. He also prefers to stick to his wheelhouse in equities over bonds.\n\"If the market corrects, we would view it as an opportunity to fill our equity positions that may be below strategic or tactical targets,\" he said.\nDuring the pandemic, the Fed has been buying about $80 billion of Treasurys each month and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS), while increasing its balance sheet to about $8.2 trillion .\nSome Fed officials have been debating buying, as a first step to withdrawing some support, particularly since the U.S. housing market has been red-hot during the COVID crisis, albeit with recent signs of cooling.\nThe Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference.\nU.S. stocks drifted higher into record territory on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average , S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index claiming new closing highs.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"SDS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"IVV":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MBB":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"LQD":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809289710,"gmtCreate":1627372867930,"gmtModify":1633765633642,"author":{"id":"3587023056098177","authorId":"3587023056098177","name":"jenx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/422c2ebfc14a61dc15dd098a40cd6a5e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587023056098177","idStr":"3587023056098177"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yo like pls","listText":"Yo like pls","text":"Yo like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809289710","repostId":"1148689588","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1172,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}