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Ponraj

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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-23
  Wow
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  414 评论
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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-22
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  474 评论
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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-22
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  621 评论
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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-21
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  405 评论
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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-21
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  635 评论
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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-21
  👍
  Global stocks slide after Wall Street frets about the Fed
  Hong Kong (CNN Business)Global stocks and cryptocurrencies are pulling back on Monday as investors c
  Global stocks slide after Wall Street frets about the Fed
  598 评论
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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-21
  Great
  Goldman believes these quality stocks are cheap
  The value vs. growth debate has dominated investor attention this year, but the best route may just
  Goldman believes these quality stocks are cheap
  611 评论
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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-21
  Good
  Why Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval
  Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective. Biogen(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for
  Why Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval
  584 评论
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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-21
  Good
  Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up
  Summary Plug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with
  Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up
  408 评论
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- PonrajPonraj
  ·2021-06-21
  👍
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  494 评论
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19:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Global stocks slide after Wall Street frets about the Fed","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179311244","media":"CNN Business","summary":"Hong Kong (CNN Business)Global stocks and cryptocurrencies are pulling back on Monday as investors c","content":"<p>Hong Kong (CNN Business)Global stocks and cryptocurrencies are pulling back on Monday as investors continue to weigh signals from the Federal Reserve that it could raise interest rates sooner than expected.</p>\n<p>Markets were broadly lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 (N225) dropping more than 3% — easily the worst major performer — after Wall Street closed out its worst week in months on Friday with a 1.6% fall on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU).</p>\n<p>Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) fell 1.1% and South Korea's Kospi (KOSPI) dropped 0.8%. China's Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) was the regional outlier in Asia, up 0.1%.</p>\n<p>The fallout spilled over into Europe, where London's FTSE 100 (UKX) dropped 0.1%. France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 0.2%, while Germany's DAX (DAX) was up 0.2%.</p>\n<p>The declines followed volatility in the United States on Friday, where the Dow's weak close left it 3.5% lower on the week, its worst pullback since late January. The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) lost 1.3% on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) shed 0.9%.</p>\n<p>US futures were muted early Monday, experiencing little change.</p>\n<p>Wall Street was already having a rough week, but stocks slid even further on Friday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC that he thinks the Fed should raise interest rates as soon as the end of next year. That was even more hawkish than the signal the Fed sent out on Wednesday that it may raise rates twice by late 2023.</p>\n<p>Wall Street is worried about inflation. But investors are also nervous about the Fed taking away the stimulus it is injecting into the market to counter the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.</p>\n<p>The crypto market is also struggling Monday, though it wasn't immediately apparent why. Bitcoin is down more than 6% in the last 24 hours, trading just above $33,000 per coin, according to CoinDesk. Ethereum fell more than 7%, while dogecoin plunged more than 8%.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global stocks slide after Wall Street frets about the Fed</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal stocks slide after Wall Street frets about the Fed\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 19:17 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/investing/global-stocks-fed/index.html><strong>CNN Business</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Hong Kong (CNN Business)Global stocks and cryptocurrencies are pulling back on Monday as investors continue to weigh signals from the Federal Reserve that it could raise interest rates sooner than ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/investing/global-stocks-fed/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/investing/global-stocks-fed/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179311244","content_text":"Hong Kong (CNN Business)Global stocks and cryptocurrencies are pulling back on Monday as investors continue to weigh signals from the Federal Reserve that it could raise interest rates sooner than expected.\nMarkets were broadly lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 (N225) dropping more than 3% — easily the worst major performer — after Wall Street closed out its worst week in months on Friday with a 1.6% fall on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU).\nHong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) fell 1.1% and South Korea's Kospi (KOSPI) dropped 0.8%. China's Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) was the regional outlier in Asia, up 0.1%.\nThe fallout spilled over into Europe, where London's FTSE 100 (UKX) dropped 0.1%. France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 0.2%, while Germany's DAX (DAX) was up 0.2%.\nThe declines followed volatility in the United States on Friday, where the Dow's weak close left it 3.5% lower on the week, its worst pullback since late January. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 1.3% on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) shed 0.9%.\nUS futures were muted early Monday, experiencing little change.\nWall Street was already having a rough week, but stocks slid even further on Friday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC that he thinks the Fed should raise interest rates as soon as the end of next year. That was even more hawkish than the signal the Fed sent out on Wednesday that it may raise rates twice by late 2023.\nWall Street is worried about inflation. But investors are also nervous about the Fed taking away the stimulus it is injecting into the market to counter the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThe crypto market is also struggling Monday, though it wasn't immediately apparent why. Bitcoin is down more than 6% in the last 24 hours, trading just above $33,000 per coin, according to CoinDesk. Ethereum fell more than 7%, while dogecoin plunged more than 8%.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":598,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167566055,"gmtCreate":1624278185277,"gmtModify":1634008541213,"author":{"id":"4087294409896000","authorId":"4087294409896000","name":"Ponraj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fb14018c0d8ecb48194b86e4ce278","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087294409896000","authorIdStr":"4087294409896000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167566055","repostId":"1169140387","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1169140387","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624270145,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169140387?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 18:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman believes these quality stocks are cheap","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169140387","media":"CNBC","summary":"The value vs. growth debate has dominated investor attention this year, but the best route may just ","content":"<div>\n<p>The value vs. growth debate has dominated investor attention this year, but the best route may just be to find quality companies selling at a relative discount, according to Goldman Sachs.\nThe Wall ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/20/goldman-believes-these-quality-stocks-are-cheap.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman believes these quality stocks are cheap</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman believes these quality stocks are cheap\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 18:09 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/20/goldman-believes-these-quality-stocks-are-cheap.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The value vs. growth debate has dominated investor attention this year, but the best route may just be to find quality companies selling at a relative discount, according to Goldman Sachs.\nThe Wall ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/20/goldman-believes-these-quality-stocks-are-cheap.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CSCO":"思科","DE":"迪尔股份有限公司","DRI":"达登饭店","PG":"宝洁","PM":"菲利普莫里斯","CTSH":"高知特","KBR":"KBR科技","AMD":"美国超微公司","SAM":"波斯顿啤酒","LOW":"劳氏"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/20/goldman-believes-these-quality-stocks-are-cheap.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1169140387","content_text":"The value vs. growth debate has dominated investor attention this year, but the best route may just be to find quality companies selling at a relative discount, according to Goldman Sachs.\nThe Wall Street firm said valuations are now in-line with historical averages, signaling investors should be even more selective when looking for opportunities within quality stocks.\n“Against this backdrop we look for stocks with quality characteristics that still trade at a discount/attractive multiples,” Deep Mehta, a vice president at Goldman, told clients. “While there are many ways to define quality, we believe a track record of strong asset productivity and financial returns as well as cash generation are important indicators.”\nGoldman screened for two different types of quality stocks that are cheap in the current climate. The first list of stocks are equities with a combination of strong productivity and efficacy of spending. The second screen are stocks that center around earnings quality, measured by consistent free cash flow.\nGoldman then added a valuation overlay to both these screens. Take a look at the lists of stocks here.\nAsset productivity\nThis list of stocks are buy-rated names that offer a combination of strong and improving gross profitability, solid cash returns on cash invested and fair valuations.\n“We look for companies that despite the pandemic-related headwinds, maintained their Gross Profits/Total Assets in the top half of their respective sectors (Quartile 1 or 2) throughout 2019-2022E, and are set to expand/stay stable in 2022E vs. 2019 on our analysts’ estimates,” said Mehta.\nAll the listed stocks have improving gross profit as a percent of total assets, improving cash return on capital invested and attractive valuations compared to history.\n\nDeere & Co.,Lowe’s,Advanced Micro Devices,Boston Beer and Procter & Gamble all make Goldman’s first quality screen.\n“New ag equipment share of capex is in the early stages of recovering off trough following a sharp destock in used ag equipment inventory,” said Goldman equity analyst Jerry Revich.\nGoldman equity analyst Kate McShane said she is looking for Lowe’s’ margins to expand as the company manages costs and increases productivity.\n“Traffic and ticket growth have been consistently strong throughout the pandemic and continued successful initiatives with the ‘Pro’ customers should increase the likelihood of market share gains,” said McShane.\nImproving free cash flow\nThe next screen includes stocks that have a good track record of free cash flow conversion, plus attractive and growing free cash flow yields, said Goldman.\n“We view companies with the ability to convert accounting net earnings into Free Cash Flow (FCF) cash as well positioned. While investors typically look to net income to gauge a company’s profitability, it is ultimately FCF generation, that underpins an effective capital allocation policy in our view,” said Mehta.\nAll the buy-rated stocks also have free cash flow yield above 5%, that is expected to improve year-over-year.\n\nKBR Inc, Cognizant Technology Solutions, Philip Morris International, Cisco Systems and Darden Restaurants all made Goldman’s free cash flow screen.\n“Strong growth trajectory ahead from rising global hydrogen infrastructure investment and favorable capital deployment,” Goldman equity analyst Jerry Revich told clients about KBR. “Management’s $4-6 EPS target for 2025 seems achievable with strong organic growth in government solutions and a solid booking run-way across Advisory, Ammonia and catalyst.”\nGoldman analyst Matthew O’Neill said Cognizant’s strong balance sheet strength and robust free cash flow generation is also likely to provide capacity to supplement growth with M&A.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167561926,"gmtCreate":1624278089365,"gmtModify":1634008542930,"author":{"id":"4087294409896000","authorId":"4087294409896000","name":"Ponraj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fb14018c0d8ecb48194b86e4ce278","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087294409896000","authorIdStr":"4087294409896000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167561926","repostId":"1136994311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136994311","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624267966,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136994311?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136994311","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective.\n\nBiogen(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for ","content":"<blockquote>\n Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Biogen</b>(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for investors who owned the stock in anticipation of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of its Alzheimer's disease drug, Aduhelm.&nbsp;In this<i>Motley Fool Live</i>video<b>recorded on June 9</b>, Motley Fool contributors Keith Speights and Brian Orelli discuss one reason why Biogen isn't a buy after its key FDA victory.</p>\n<p><b>Keith Speights:</b>Let's segue then to the obvious question here. The question that a lot of investors are asking now is, \"Should I buy Biogen&nbsp;stock after this big FDA approval for its Alzheimer's disease drug?\" Brian, what should investors be factoring in to their decision making process right now? What's your take on whether or not Biogen is a buy right now?</p>\n<p><b>Brian Orelli:</b>From a valuation standpoint, it's easy to look at historical data and see where they've been trading. I tend to look at price-to-sales just because drug companies, if you use the earnings, it's a little more difficult because they have a lot of one-time events and acquisitions and things like that and licensing deals that throw off their GAAP earnings. Then if you're looking at historical earnings, they usually don't back those out, so I use price-to-sales as a metric.</p>\n<p>Biogen is trading at least after Monday's, after Monday's jump, it was at 4.9 price-to-sales ratio. Last time it traded at that level was in the 2018, 2019 time frame, and at that point, revenue was hovering around 10% growth.</p>\n<p>To justify this price-to-sales ratio, you have to expect that sales are going to grow by 10% per year. Revenue was $13.45 billion in 2020. You need to get to $14.8 billion to get to that 10% growth. Guidance for next year is for it to drop to $10.45 billion to $10.75 billion, and they had already factored in modest revenue from Aduhelm in 2021.</p>\n<p>At the high end, Biogen needs $4 billion in sales to justify the current valuation. Four billion would be completely reasonable for an Alzheimer's disease drug, and $10 billion would probably be reasonable, but that would be a drug that actually helps patients. As we've said, there's not enough data to know whether Aduhelm actually helps patients.</p>\n<p>Medicare, they've got the drug approved so that's good, but they need to get the doctors to prescribe it, and they need to get insurers to cover it. Medicare will probably cover it, but it's an infused product and that means it's covered under Medicare Part B, B as in boy, not D as in drugs. That comes with a 20% copay after reaching the deductible. We're talking about $10,000 for the patients they're going to have to pay on the drug. That's going to really limit sales.</p>\n<p>If you want to look at it at a different way, if you assume the valuation already factors in the fall to around $10.5 billion and then you are looking for 10% growth from there, now you only need $1 billion or so in sales to justify that growth. Maybe that seems a little more doable, but then that assumes that the revenue from the multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Rituxan, that are causing the drop this year, and that you have to assume that's going to just stop.</p>\n<p>I don't think that's going to stop, so that means either they're going to generate more than $1 billion to justify 10% growth from 2021-2022. Very long story short, I have a hard time seeing the value of investing at this level.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Biogen Isn't a Buy After Its Alzheimer's Drug Approval\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 17:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/20/why-biogen-isnt-a-buy-after-its-alzheimers-drug-ap/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective.\n\nBiogen(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for investors who owned the stock in anticipation of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/20/why-biogen-isnt-a-buy-after-its-alzheimers-drug-ap/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/20/why-biogen-isnt-a-buy-after-its-alzheimers-drug-ap/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136994311","content_text":"Here's one longtime healthcare expert's perspective.\n\nBiogen(NASDAQ:BIIB)has been a huge winner for investors who owned the stock in anticipation of U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of its Alzheimer's disease drug, Aduhelm. In thisMotley Fool Livevideorecorded on June 9, Motley Fool contributors Keith Speights and Brian Orelli discuss one reason why Biogen isn't a buy after its key FDA victory.\nKeith Speights:Let's segue then to the obvious question here. The question that a lot of investors are asking now is, \"Should I buy Biogen stock after this big FDA approval for its Alzheimer's disease drug?\" Brian, what should investors be factoring in to their decision making process right now? What's your take on whether or not Biogen is a buy right now?\nBrian Orelli:From a valuation standpoint, it's easy to look at historical data and see where they've been trading. I tend to look at price-to-sales just because drug companies, if you use the earnings, it's a little more difficult because they have a lot of one-time events and acquisitions and things like that and licensing deals that throw off their GAAP earnings. Then if you're looking at historical earnings, they usually don't back those out, so I use price-to-sales as a metric.\nBiogen is trading at least after Monday's, after Monday's jump, it was at 4.9 price-to-sales ratio. Last time it traded at that level was in the 2018, 2019 time frame, and at that point, revenue was hovering around 10% growth.\nTo justify this price-to-sales ratio, you have to expect that sales are going to grow by 10% per year. Revenue was $13.45 billion in 2020. You need to get to $14.8 billion to get to that 10% growth. Guidance for next year is for it to drop to $10.45 billion to $10.75 billion, and they had already factored in modest revenue from Aduhelm in 2021.\nAt the high end, Biogen needs $4 billion in sales to justify the current valuation. Four billion would be completely reasonable for an Alzheimer's disease drug, and $10 billion would probably be reasonable, but that would be a drug that actually helps patients. As we've said, there's not enough data to know whether Aduhelm actually helps patients.\nMedicare, they've got the drug approved so that's good, but they need to get the doctors to prescribe it, and they need to get insurers to cover it. Medicare will probably cover it, but it's an infused product and that means it's covered under Medicare Part B, B as in boy, not D as in drugs. That comes with a 20% copay after reaching the deductible. We're talking about $10,000 for the patients they're going to have to pay on the drug. That's going to really limit sales.\nIf you want to look at it at a different way, if you assume the valuation already factors in the fall to around $10.5 billion and then you are looking for 10% growth from there, now you only need $1 billion or so in sales to justify that growth. Maybe that seems a little more doable, but then that assumes that the revenue from the multiple sclerosis drugs, Tecfidera and Rituxan, that are causing the drop this year, and that you have to assume that's going to just stop.\nI don't think that's going to stop, so that means either they're going to generate more than $1 billion to justify 10% growth from 2021-2022. Very long story short, I have a hard time seeing the value of investing at this level.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167563499,"gmtCreate":1624278072711,"gmtModify":1634008543300,"author":{"id":"4087294409896000","authorId":"4087294409896000","name":"Ponraj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fb14018c0d8ecb48194b86e4ce278","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087294409896000","authorIdStr":"4087294409896000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167563499","repostId":"1196746626","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196746626","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624268221,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196746626?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 17:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196746626","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPlug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Plug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with the stock trading at just a fraction of its 1999 tech boom price.</li>\n <li>Despite experiencing a renaissance in the 2020 tech and growth surge, the stock appears to be re-rating back to its earlier valuation multiple as investor optimism falters.</li>\n <li>Management has high hopes for the future, with an impressive slide-deck published in the fall of 2020 laying out how they see the company developing in the near future.</li>\n <li>While forecasts are impressive to read, investors should consider whether there is enough substance in the numbers to back them up.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd52b10176701b73dd7d557921bfd29e\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"480\"><span>3alexd/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Investment Thesis</b></p>\n<p>Despite a strong end to 2020, fuelled by investor optimism for all things linked to our clean and green future, this stock appears to be re-rating back to its former valuation multiple.While there are many factors investors will point towards to support a bull thesis, in our opinion many forward-looking projections are overly ambitious and may ultimately be out of reach. We question whether the total addressable market is significant enough for Plug to prosper, particularly in the light of strong competition.</p>\n<p><b>The Background to our thesis</b></p>\n<p>Plug Power (PLUG) was a roaring success in the latter part of 2020, increasing by over 400% to its January 2021 peak, before crashing back down to earth as the stock was hit by an&nbsp;accounting scandal.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c03000d0db7000dd850fad52fdd9068\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The accounting issues have been covered in detail in the article linked above, so we won’t pore over them in too much detail here, except to say we are big believers in the old adage - “if in doubt, get out.\" An accounting scandal and a restatement of prior year figures is perhaps not the wisest foundations with which to build an investment decision in our opinion.</p>\n<p>Whether an accounting scandal is considered a red flag from an investment thesis or not, most investors would baulk at the thought of investing in a firm with legal concerns and unknown liabilities. Unfortunately, for PLUG stockholders, that is exactly what is laid out in the company’s most recent&nbsp;annual report, with a flurry of legal proceedings being filed in early 2021 off the back of the accounting scandal, adding to earlier proceedings from staff involved in an accident which is yet to be resolved. For many investors, these flags would be enough to deter them from an investment. However, a contrary argument may be that these factors are already priced in and the company's future may be rosier. Let's consider what the future holds for Plug Power.</p>\n<p><b>Considering Plug Power's Valuation</b></p>\n<p>As long-term growth investors, the consideration of valuation is not normally the first port of call when considering an investment decision. We’ve previously laid out our belief that what seems expensive, often is so for good reason, when laying out a bull thesis for other stocks. However, in this case we think it paints a very different story. When considering the valuation of Plug Power, we note a current enterprise value of $16.1 billion, being a $16.8 billion market cap, deducting $1.3 billion cash and adding $0.6 billion in debt. This gives us a forward looking EV/Sales figure for the next twelve months of 36.</p>\n<p>While the multiple itself is high by most gauges, as we’ve outlined, the number itself is not really our primary concern. If we delve a little deeper into the valuation story, what we can see is a company that traded at 3.8 times its next twelve-month revenues in September 2019 (using the same metrics outlined above). This multiple increased gradually to 12.3 by June 2020, before exploding as high as 56 times next twelve-month sales in December 2020.</p>\n<p>This incredible volatility in valuation multiple does not appear to have been triggered by developing sales or profitability. PLUG's quarter-on-quarter last twelve-month sales increased a modest 50% between September 2019 and September 2020 ($198 million September 2019 and $308 million September 2020). Thereafter a large decline, caused by their accounting irregularities, led to a December 2020 loss of $94 million.</p>\n<p>It's our thesis that the stock price surge was not built on any solid financial foundation, more likely linked to investor appetite for exposure to companies that may benefit from future environmental trends, and potentially the strong forecasts from management. As the projections have not yet played out in the numbers, the share price has suffered and this is a trend we expect to continue to see.</p>\n<p>One positive case that can be made for PLUG's future from a valuation perspective is that despite negatively trending income statement features, the company appears to have a strong balance sheet. The considerable cash and cash equivalent balance ($1.3 billion) by far surpasses their current and long-term liabilities ($784 million), meaning PLUG should have no issues in withstanding short-term poor performance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02d2db1e6065bc1e3501e02da38a16a\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"229\"><span>(Source: PLUG's 2020 Annual report)</span></p>\n<p>The company's current ratio of 7.21, being current assets divided by current liabilities, suggests a company more than able to continue operations despite being in a loss-making position.While this is encouraging from a bull thesis perspective, our core investment strategy is more revenue and growth orientated. PLUG certainly appears to be well capitalized, yet that alone will not enable the company to drive returns for investors. One obvious option for PLUG would be to deploy their cash into projects that would develop new revenue streams and enhance their earnings position.</p>\n<p><b>Consideration of growth opportunities</b></p>\n<p>Since we deviated from our normal order of assessment, let’s now return to where the thesis normally begins, that is the story of the company itself. Do we consider this investment story to paint a positive picture of future growth, with products that will change the company fortunes and lead to a prosperous future? If we’re honest, right now, no. Let’s assess why that is the case.</p>\n<p>Firstly, PLUG is a producer of hydrogen powered fuel cell solutions, outlining in their recent&nbsp;annual report&nbsp;that they see their products in “material handling vehicles and industrial trucks.\" This is the first factor that investors should be acutely aware of. The hype of 2020 may have gotten some investors carried away with this “battery producer” for electric vehicles, without understanding its position in the market.</p>\n<p>The vehicle battery market is well laid out by this&nbsp;IHS Markit report, which considers the future prospects for hydrogen fuel cells. If you’re bullish on PLUG, this report will give some encouragement, showing that there is a strong increase expected in both vehicles and charging stations in the coming years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c627200e94e6301508a5f09d5381a43b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"251\"><span>(Source:IHS Markit)</span></p>\n<p>However, it’s not the headline numbers that caught our eye in this report, but the description of where exactly hydrogen-powered batteries sit within the marketplace. According to the report, while there are clear benefits of hydrogen over the lithium batteries used by Tesla and others, the downside is that they use “more complex processes” and have “about half the wheel to wheel efficiency of battery electric,” concluding that they are more suitable for vehicles with heavier weights and longer trip times – think industrial vehicles and buses.</p>\n<p>In our consideration of the story, this dramatically reduces the total addressable market (\"TAM\"). Yes, there are a lot of industrial vehicles in the world, but there is a significantly larger market for standard lighter automobiles, boats, light-aircraft and drones.</p>\n<p>Our assessment of the story is enhanced further by reporting from the International Energy Agency, who lay out their future projections for electric light duty vehicles (“LDV”) in the graph below – electric cars essentially. With projections for up to 200 million units expected to be on the road in 2030, up from 22 million today. In our opinion, if investing in the clean and green future of electric vehicles, the LDV space is far more appealing, and the smaller TAM in the hydrogen fuel cell space is a concern to the company's long-term prospects.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59bfbab3f6732c318b381f6832adfd3d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"342\"><span>(Source :IEA 2021 Report)</span></p>\n<p><b>The contrary thesis for PLUG</b></p>\n<p>We should also consider the counter argument to our thesis on the PLUG story. The bulls will be screaming that despite the smaller market, many companies have been highly profitable while cornering a certain segment of a larger market. That would undoubtedly be a fair assessment to make overall; however, do we consider that PLUG is best placed to do so?</p>\n<p>In the heavy duty vehicle and hydrogen power market, there are already firms such as Proterra (PTRA), who have proof of concept and regular sales in electric buses. Plus it has become apparent that heavyweight competitors are entering the space, with General Motors' (GM&nbsp;)plans to supply&nbsp;fuel cells for locomotive trains. With this in mind, it is difficult to see PLUG capturing a significant portion of the smaller TAM that we defined earlier. Our thesis is that they may get squeezed out by this competition in the longer term.</p>\n<p>That being said, the company management clearly forecasts a bright future. Their impressive September 2020&nbsp;slide deck&nbsp;highlights their forecasts of an incredible surge in revenue growth to $1.2 billion in annual sales and $250 billion in operating EBITDA. This impressive growth will be fuelled by expansion of their existing operations and development of new market segments, such as hydrogen power plants, refueling stations, heavy duty electric vehicles, airplanes and even a \"gigafactory.\"</p>\n<p>The coining of a phrase synonymous with Tesla, via their gigafactory plans, may have whet the appetite of some investors. However, we are firmly in the let’s wait and see camp here. Firstly, on the revenue side, even excluding the 2020 annual loss and writing off to the restatement issues mentioned earlier, it’s hard to gather where the $1 billion figure comes from. That would be an approximate 6.5-fold increase on the 2019 annual revenues ($150 million) in a two and a half year period; pretty ambitious? Not quite as ambitious as doing so while increasing EBITDA to $250 million from a historic loss-making position, while presumably also increasing capital expenditure to fund their gigafactory, hydrogen plant, plane and truck expansions? Unfortunately, we are struggling to see the math.</p>\n<p><b>Our conclusions on Plug Power</b></p>\n<p>In a global environment currently shifting toward a greener and cleaner world, fuelled by more carbon efficient vehicles, it is no surprise that investors have high hopes for a stock such as PLUG. It is easy to read their marketing material and fall in love with the story and the projections. It's encouraging to see the bold plans that management have for the company; however, we would like to see more results before assuming that these can be executed.</p>\n<p>From the research we have undertaken, we believe that the total addressable market for PLUG is smaller than currently perceived by the bulls. Long-term trends suggest that lithium batteries will be the clear leader in fuelling our greener future and we believe the hydrogen market will be considerably smaller, impacting PLUG's ability to grow. When considering this, alongside the strong competition within their subsector, the accounting and litigation red flags we noted earlier, we believe that PLUG may continue to see multiple contraction and a reduction in market cap - hence our bearish outlook at this point in time.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Plug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPlug Power: This Stock Fails To Get Us Charged Up\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-21 17:37 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435786-plug-power-this-stock-fails-to-get-us-charged-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nPlug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with the stock trading at just a fraction of its 1999 tech boom price.\nDespite experiencing a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435786-plug-power-this-stock-fails-to-get-us-charged-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLUG":"普拉格能源"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435786-plug-power-this-stock-fails-to-get-us-charged-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196746626","content_text":"Summary\n\nPlug Power, the producer of hydrogen fuel cell solutions, has had a turbulent history, with the stock trading at just a fraction of its 1999 tech boom price.\nDespite experiencing a renaissance in the 2020 tech and growth surge, the stock appears to be re-rating back to its earlier valuation multiple as investor optimism falters.\nManagement has high hopes for the future, with an impressive slide-deck published in the fall of 2020 laying out how they see the company developing in the near future.\nWhile forecasts are impressive to read, investors should consider whether there is enough substance in the numbers to back them up.\n\n3alexd/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nDespite a strong end to 2020, fuelled by investor optimism for all things linked to our clean and green future, this stock appears to be re-rating back to its former valuation multiple.While there are many factors investors will point towards to support a bull thesis, in our opinion many forward-looking projections are overly ambitious and may ultimately be out of reach. We question whether the total addressable market is significant enough for Plug to prosper, particularly in the light of strong competition.\nThe Background to our thesis\nPlug Power (PLUG) was a roaring success in the latter part of 2020, increasing by over 400% to its January 2021 peak, before crashing back down to earth as the stock was hit by an accounting scandal.\nData by YCharts\nThe accounting issues have been covered in detail in the article linked above, so we won’t pore over them in too much detail here, except to say we are big believers in the old adage - “if in doubt, get out.\" An accounting scandal and a restatement of prior year figures is perhaps not the wisest foundations with which to build an investment decision in our opinion.\nWhether an accounting scandal is considered a red flag from an investment thesis or not, most investors would baulk at the thought of investing in a firm with legal concerns and unknown liabilities. Unfortunately, for PLUG stockholders, that is exactly what is laid out in the company’s most recent annual report, with a flurry of legal proceedings being filed in early 2021 off the back of the accounting scandal, adding to earlier proceedings from staff involved in an accident which is yet to be resolved. For many investors, these flags would be enough to deter them from an investment. However, a contrary argument may be that these factors are already priced in and the company's future may be rosier. Let's consider what the future holds for Plug Power.\nConsidering Plug Power's Valuation\nAs long-term growth investors, the consideration of valuation is not normally the first port of call when considering an investment decision. We’ve previously laid out our belief that what seems expensive, often is so for good reason, when laying out a bull thesis for other stocks. However, in this case we think it paints a very different story. When considering the valuation of Plug Power, we note a current enterprise value of $16.1 billion, being a $16.8 billion market cap, deducting $1.3 billion cash and adding $0.6 billion in debt. This gives us a forward looking EV/Sales figure for the next twelve months of 36.\nWhile the multiple itself is high by most gauges, as we’ve outlined, the number itself is not really our primary concern. If we delve a little deeper into the valuation story, what we can see is a company that traded at 3.8 times its next twelve-month revenues in September 2019 (using the same metrics outlined above). This multiple increased gradually to 12.3 by June 2020, before exploding as high as 56 times next twelve-month sales in December 2020.\nThis incredible volatility in valuation multiple does not appear to have been triggered by developing sales or profitability. PLUG's quarter-on-quarter last twelve-month sales increased a modest 50% between September 2019 and September 2020 ($198 million September 2019 and $308 million September 2020). Thereafter a large decline, caused by their accounting irregularities, led to a December 2020 loss of $94 million.\nIt's our thesis that the stock price surge was not built on any solid financial foundation, more likely linked to investor appetite for exposure to companies that may benefit from future environmental trends, and potentially the strong forecasts from management. As the projections have not yet played out in the numbers, the share price has suffered and this is a trend we expect to continue to see.\nOne positive case that can be made for PLUG's future from a valuation perspective is that despite negatively trending income statement features, the company appears to have a strong balance sheet. The considerable cash and cash equivalent balance ($1.3 billion) by far surpasses their current and long-term liabilities ($784 million), meaning PLUG should have no issues in withstanding short-term poor performance.\n(Source: PLUG's 2020 Annual report)\nThe company's current ratio of 7.21, being current assets divided by current liabilities, suggests a company more than able to continue operations despite being in a loss-making position.While this is encouraging from a bull thesis perspective, our core investment strategy is more revenue and growth orientated. PLUG certainly appears to be well capitalized, yet that alone will not enable the company to drive returns for investors. One obvious option for PLUG would be to deploy their cash into projects that would develop new revenue streams and enhance their earnings position.\nConsideration of growth opportunities\nSince we deviated from our normal order of assessment, let’s now return to where the thesis normally begins, that is the story of the company itself. Do we consider this investment story to paint a positive picture of future growth, with products that will change the company fortunes and lead to a prosperous future? If we’re honest, right now, no. Let’s assess why that is the case.\nFirstly, PLUG is a producer of hydrogen powered fuel cell solutions, outlining in their recent annual report that they see their products in “material handling vehicles and industrial trucks.\" This is the first factor that investors should be acutely aware of. The hype of 2020 may have gotten some investors carried away with this “battery producer” for electric vehicles, without understanding its position in the market.\nThe vehicle battery market is well laid out by this IHS Markit report, which considers the future prospects for hydrogen fuel cells. If you’re bullish on PLUG, this report will give some encouragement, showing that there is a strong increase expected in both vehicles and charging stations in the coming years.\n(Source:IHS Markit)\nHowever, it’s not the headline numbers that caught our eye in this report, but the description of where exactly hydrogen-powered batteries sit within the marketplace. According to the report, while there are clear benefits of hydrogen over the lithium batteries used by Tesla and others, the downside is that they use “more complex processes” and have “about half the wheel to wheel efficiency of battery electric,” concluding that they are more suitable for vehicles with heavier weights and longer trip times – think industrial vehicles and buses.\nIn our consideration of the story, this dramatically reduces the total addressable market (\"TAM\"). Yes, there are a lot of industrial vehicles in the world, but there is a significantly larger market for standard lighter automobiles, boats, light-aircraft and drones.\nOur assessment of the story is enhanced further by reporting from the International Energy Agency, who lay out their future projections for electric light duty vehicles (“LDV”) in the graph below – electric cars essentially. With projections for up to 200 million units expected to be on the road in 2030, up from 22 million today. In our opinion, if investing in the clean and green future of electric vehicles, the LDV space is far more appealing, and the smaller TAM in the hydrogen fuel cell space is a concern to the company's long-term prospects.\n(Source :IEA 2021 Report)\nThe contrary thesis for PLUG\nWe should also consider the counter argument to our thesis on the PLUG story. The bulls will be screaming that despite the smaller market, many companies have been highly profitable while cornering a certain segment of a larger market. That would undoubtedly be a fair assessment to make overall; however, do we consider that PLUG is best placed to do so?\nIn the heavy duty vehicle and hydrogen power market, there are already firms such as Proterra (PTRA), who have proof of concept and regular sales in electric buses. Plus it has become apparent that heavyweight competitors are entering the space, with General Motors' (GM )plans to supply fuel cells for locomotive trains. With this in mind, it is difficult to see PLUG capturing a significant portion of the smaller TAM that we defined earlier. Our thesis is that they may get squeezed out by this competition in the longer term.\nThat being said, the company management clearly forecasts a bright future. Their impressive September 2020 slide deck highlights their forecasts of an incredible surge in revenue growth to $1.2 billion in annual sales and $250 billion in operating EBITDA. This impressive growth will be fuelled by expansion of their existing operations and development of new market segments, such as hydrogen power plants, refueling stations, heavy duty electric vehicles, airplanes and even a \"gigafactory.\"\nThe coining of a phrase synonymous with Tesla, via their gigafactory plans, may have whet the appetite of some investors. However, we are firmly in the let’s wait and see camp here. Firstly, on the revenue side, even excluding the 2020 annual loss and writing off to the restatement issues mentioned earlier, it’s hard to gather where the $1 billion figure comes from. That would be an approximate 6.5-fold increase on the 2019 annual revenues ($150 million) in a two and a half year period; pretty ambitious? Not quite as ambitious as doing so while increasing EBITDA to $250 million from a historic loss-making position, while presumably also increasing capital expenditure to fund their gigafactory, hydrogen plant, plane and truck expansions? Unfortunately, we are struggling to see the math.\nOur conclusions on Plug Power\nIn a global environment currently shifting toward a greener and cleaner world, fuelled by more carbon efficient vehicles, it is no surprise that investors have high hopes for a stock such as PLUG. It is easy to read their marketing material and fall in love with the story and the projections. It's encouraging to see the bold plans that management have for the company; however, we would like to see more results before assuming that these can be executed.\nFrom the research we have undertaken, we believe that the total addressable market for PLUG is smaller than currently perceived by the bulls. Long-term trends suggest that lithium batteries will be the clear leader in fuelling our greener future and we believe the hydrogen market will be considerably smaller, impacting PLUG's ability to grow. When considering this, alongside the strong competition within their subsector, the accounting and litigation red flags we noted earlier, we believe that PLUG may continue to see multiple contraction and a reduction in market cap - hence our bearish outlook at this point in time.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":408,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167535862,"gmtCreate":1624276230556,"gmtModify":1634008564064,"author":{"id":"4087294409896000","authorId":"4087294409896000","name":"Ponraj","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fb14018c0d8ecb48194b86e4ce278","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087294409896000","authorIdStr":"4087294409896000"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;👍","listText":"&nbsp;👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167535862","repostId":"2145081082","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}