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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-12-13
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  Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>
  Summary The short-term correction has probably not ended yet. Macroeconomic indicators signal furth
  Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>
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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-12-03
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-12-01
  $SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$oversold
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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-11-23
  Adjusted net profit is improved. But operating profit is lower than last year.. what are the major item adjusted
  XIAOMI's total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion for Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-over-year.<blockquote>小米第三季度总收入为人民币781亿元，同比增长8.2%。</blockquote>
  XIAOMI's total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion for Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-ove
  XIAOMI's total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion for Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-over-year.<blockquote>小米第三季度总收入为人民币781亿元，同比增长8.2%。</blockquote>
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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-11-17
  $Salesforce.com(CRM)$happy
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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-11-12
  $XIAOMI-W(01810)$moon
  3,028 评论
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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-11-10
  $Microsoft(MSFT)$777
  2,661 评论
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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-11-10
  $Apple(AAPL)$777
  4,236 评论
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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-11-09
  $XIAOMI-W(01810)$hi
  2,764 评论
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- blackblack1blackblack1
  ·2021-11-08
  $BYD COMPANY(01211)$regret
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11:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169099899","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal furth","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>  <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>  <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲的采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好被视为延伸到12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBull Run Enters Late Cycle<blockquote>牛市进入后期周期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The short-term correction has probably not ended yet.</li>  <li>Macroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.</li>  <li>The Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35de74b68a683fda3b95d3fd873bc678\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1025\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>MundusImages/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>短期回调很可能还没有结束。</li><li>尽管短期存在回调潜力，但宏观经济指标表明股市将进一步上涨。</li><li>美联储可能会比许多人预期更快地面临宽松货币立场的严峻挑战。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>MundusImages/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.</p><p><blockquote>商业周期正在成熟，但尚未结束。根据Stouff capital的估计，它可能正在进入周期后期阶段。他们的美国长期宏观指数指标达到了90%的阈值，这是经济衰退的早期指标。这是相关的，因为经济衰退对于股市熊市来说有着完美的记录。过去170年的每一次NBER衰退都涉及美国股市的熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/631eab7d5b7d2c62994d942fc86cdcfc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"511\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Refinitiv、Stouff Capital）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，进入商业周期后期并不意味着股市处于熊市。相反，股票在上个世纪商业周期的后期发展积极。如果投资者相信统计证据，商业周期的衰退阶段是他们想要避开的时间窗口。历史上可靠的其他领先指标尚未表明经济衰退即将来临。在上次报告之前，劳动力市场一直是建设性的。此外，世界大型企业联合会领先经济指数（LEI）的最新读数创下历史新高。从历史上看，劳动力市场和LEI比经济提前几个月达到周期峰值。大多数情况下，在美国经济陷入衰退之前，这两个指数甚至先于美国股市见顶。同样，收益率曲线尚未闪烁衰退信号。从历史上看，它在经济衰退到来前不久反转，也是周期性股市高点的领先指标。今天的情况也不是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fed5b5760550aa77356656aee41f1d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"379\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our&nbsp;mid-November article&nbsp;here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.</p><p><blockquote>然而，截至12月初，股市从近期高点回调了5%-10%。正如我们在11月中旬关于Seeking Alpha的文章中所解释的那样，下跌并不令人意外，因为市场正在火热。情绪和技术指标表明即将出现5%-10%的回调。尽管如此，调整可能不会在短期内完成。在接下来的几周里，更多的疲软仍然是基本情况。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当前的周期还有一些奇特之处。它正以前所未有的速度展开。因此，周期后期可能会让许多人感到惊讶，因为它不会像通常那样持续很长时间。此外，随着通胀迅速上升，当前环境对央行来说可能极具挑战性。上图显示，欧洲的采购价格比去年上涨了20%以上。这是该指数自70年代以来的最大涨幅。70年代是布雷顿森林汇率体系解体后最近一个出现两位数通胀的时期。美国的通胀压力也在加大。由于供应短缺，不仅商品变得昂贵，服务最近也加入了这一行列。这一发展对央行来说是一个问题，因为它们没有有效的工具来应对供应方短缺。因此，我们不太可能在短期内看到货币宽松。近年来，这一直是股市的阻力。再说一次，这不是肇事逃逸事件，我们还没有到那一步。从历史上看，股市通常在首次加息后很久就会达到周期性高点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdb33a6b0c068438eae297a0bd32d1d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"390\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：路孚特、CEIC、百达资产管理）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Technicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&amp;P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.</p><p><blockquote>技术面支持上述宏观证据。大多数主要指数可能从11月高点展开看跌艾略特波浪。标普500最好被视为延伸到12月6日低点的领先对角线。这是一个信号，表明短期调整可能尚未结束。相反，该形态可能会演变为朝向4250-4390的三浪修正腿。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，短期内有可能造成更多损害。技术证据暗示，在看到下一次可持续上涨之前，4390 S/R将再次受到攻击。时间会证明这是否是周期结束前的最后一次上涨。上面讨论的一些宏观指标可能会在事情变糟之前提供进一步的暗示。最重要的是，尽管短期内有进一步回调的潜力，但牛市趋势很可能完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474830-bull-run-enters-late-cycle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169099899","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe short-term correction has probably not ended yet.\nMacroeconomic indicators signal further upside for stocks despite short-term correction potential.\nThe Fed could face tough challenges with its loose monetary stance sooner than many expect.\n\nMundusImages/E+ via Getty Images\nThe business cycle is maturing but has not ended yet. It is probably entering the late-cycle stage, according to Stouff capital's estimates. Their US Long-Term Macro Index gauge reached the 90% threshold, an early indicator for economic recessions. That's relevant because recessions had a perfect track record for bear markets in stocks. Every NBER recession in the past 170 involved a bear market in US stocks.\n(Source: Refinitiv, Stouff Capital)\nNonetheless, entering the late stage of the business cycle does not imply that equities are in a bear market. On the contrary, equities developed positively during the late stage of the business cycle during the past century. The recession stage of the business cycle is the time window that investors want to avoid if they believe in statistical evidence. Other leading indicators, which have been reliable historically, do not signal an imminent recession yet. The labor market has been constructive until the last report. Moreover, the conference board Leading Economic Index (LEI) marked an all-time high on its latest reading. Historically, the labor market and the LEI reached their cycle peak several months ahead of the economy. Most often, both indices peaked even ahead of the US stock market before the US economy went into recession. Likewise, the yield curve is not flashing recessionary signals yet. Historically, it inverted shortly before a recession arrived and was also a leading indicator for cyclical stock market highs. That's neither the case today.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nHowever, equities corrected 5%-10% from their most recent highs into early December. The drop was not surprising because the market was running hot, as explained in our mid-November article here on Seeking Alpha. Sentiment and technical indicators signaled an imminent 5%-10% correction. Nonetheless, the correction is probably not finished short term. Some more weakness remains the base case during the next couple of weeks.\nMoreover, there is something peculiar about the current cycle. It is unfolding at an unprecedented speed. Therefore, the late-cycle stage may surprise many by not lasting as long as it usually does. Further, the current environment might prove extraordinarily challenging for central banks as inflation increases rapidly. The chart above shows that European purchasing prices are more than 20% higher versus last year. That's the steepest increase of the index since the '70s. The '70s were the latest period that recorded double-digit inflation after the breakup of the Bretton-Woods exchange-rate system. Inflation pressure is also mounting in the United States as well. Not only do goods become expensive due to supply shortages, but services also joined the party lately. The development is a problem for central banks as they have no effective tools against supply-side shortages. Consequently, we are unlikely to witness monetary easing short-term. That has been a headwind for equities in recent years. Yet again, that's not a hit-and-run event and we are not there yet. Historically, equities reached their cyclical high typically well after the initial rate hike.\n(Source: Refinitiv, CEIC, Pictet Asset Management)\nTechnicals support the macro evidence outlined above. Most of the major indices probably unfolded bearish Elliot waves from their November highs. The S&P 500 counts best as an extending leading diagonal into the December 6th low. That's a signal that the short-term correction may not be over yet. The pattern will probably morph into a three-wave corrective leg towards 4250-4390 instead.\nAll in all, there is potential for more damage short term. Technical evidence hints at another attack at the 4390 S/R before seeing the next sustainable leg up. Time will tell if it is the last leg up before the cycle ends. Some of the macro indicators discussed above will probably provide further hints before things turn sour. The bottom line is that the bull trend is most likely intact despite further short-term correction potential.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601165477,"gmtCreate":1638499135110,"gmtModify":1638499135192,"author":{"id":"4087735305621010","authorId":"4087735305621010","name":"blackblack1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a3f9b815b90862b1826692953a69dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087735305621010","idStr":"4087735305621010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601165477","repostId":"2188543124","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3309,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609486906,"gmtCreate":1638317786052,"gmtModify":1638317786136,"author":{"id":"4087735305621010","authorId":"4087735305621010","name":"blackblack1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a3f9b815b90862b1826692953a69dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087735305621010","idStr":"4087735305621010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$</a>oversold","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/S68.SI\">$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$</a>oversold","text":"$SINGAPORE EXCHANGE LIMITED(S68.SI)$oversold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609486906","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875241838,"gmtCreate":1637661944761,"gmtModify":1637662198712,"author":{"id":"4087735305621010","authorId":"4087735305621010","name":"blackblack1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a3f9b815b90862b1826692953a69dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087735305621010","idStr":"4087735305621010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Adjusted net profit is improved. But operating profit is lower than last year.. what are the major item adjusted&nbsp;","listText":"Adjusted net profit is improved. But operating profit is lower than last year.. what are the major item adjusted&nbsp;","text":"Adjusted net profit is improved. But operating profit is lower than last year.. what are the major item adjusted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875241838","repostId":"1150608449","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1150608449","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1637661249,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150608449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 17:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XIAOMI's total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion for Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-over-year.<blockquote>小米第三季度总收入为人民币781亿元，同比增长8.2%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150608449","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"XIAOMI's total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion for Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-ove","content":"<p>XIAOMI's&nbsp;total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion&nbsp;for&nbsp;Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>小米第三季度总收入为人民币781亿元，同比增长8.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abaa185fe9a2742dc48b32195311e11\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the third quarter of 2021, smartphone revenue totaled RMB47.8 billion with a gross margin of 12.8%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-over-year. Despite the global supply shortage of key components, smartphone shipments in the quarter still reached 43.9 million. According to Canalys, global smartphone shipments ranked No. 3 in the third quarter of 2021, with a market share of 13.5%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，智能手机收入总额为人民币478亿元，毛利率为12.8%，同比增长4.4个百分点。尽管全球关键零部件供应短缺，该季度智能手机出货量仍达到4390万部。根据Canalys的数据，2021年第三季度全球智能手机出货量排名第3，市场份额为13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> IoT and lifestyle products segment revenue was RMB20.9 billion during the third quarter of 2021, increasing 15.5% year-over-year. Notably, overseas IoT and lifestyle products revenue reached a new record high despite the challenges in maritime shipping logistics overseas this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，物联网和生活产品部门收入为人民币209亿元，同比增长15.5%。值得注意的是，尽管本季度海外海运物流面临挑战，但海外物联网和生活方式产品收入仍创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> In the third quarter of 2021, revenue from&nbsp;internet services segment rose to RMB7.3 billion, reaching a new quarterly high, representing an increase of 27.1% year-over-year. The gross profit margin of&nbsp;internet services segment was 73.6%, 13.1 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，互联网服务业务收入增至人民币73亿元，创季度新高，同比增长27.1%。互联网服务板块毛利率为73.6%，较去年同期高13.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;revenue from overseas markets reached RMB40.9 billion during the third quarter of 2021, accounting for 52.4% of total revenue. Despite the global shortage of key components, company solidified&nbsp;market position by optimizing global market resource allocation and reinforcing&nbsp;channels in accordance with local market conditions. According to Canalys,&nbsp;market share of smartphone shipments in the third quarter ranked No. 1 in 11 countries and regions and among the top five in 59 countries and regions globally.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度来自海外市场的收入达到人民币409亿元，占总收入的52.4%。在全球关键零部件短缺的情况下，公司通过优化全球市场资源配置，根据当地市场情况加强渠道建设，巩固了市场地位。根据Canalys的数据，第三季度智能手机出货量市场份额在11个国家和地区排名第一，在全球59个国家和地区排名前五。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XIAOMI's total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion for Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-over-year.<blockquote>小米第三季度总收入为人民币781亿元，同比增长8.2%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXIAOMI's total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion for Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-over-year.<blockquote>小米第三季度总收入为人民币781亿元，同比增长8.2%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-23 17:54</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>XIAOMI's&nbsp;total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion&nbsp;for&nbsp;Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>小米第三季度总收入为人民币781亿元，同比增长8.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8abaa185fe9a2742dc48b32195311e11\" tg-width=\"1132\" tg-height=\"556\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In the third quarter of 2021, smartphone revenue totaled RMB47.8 billion with a gross margin of 12.8%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-over-year. Despite the global supply shortage of key components, smartphone shipments in the quarter still reached 43.9 million. According to Canalys, global smartphone shipments ranked No. 3 in the third quarter of 2021, with a market share of 13.5%.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，智能手机收入总额为人民币478亿元，毛利率为12.8%，同比增长4.4个百分点。尽管全球关键零部件供应短缺，该季度智能手机出货量仍达到4390万部。根据Canalys的数据，2021年第三季度全球智能手机出货量排名第3，市场份额为13.5%。</blockquote></p><p> IoT and lifestyle products segment revenue was RMB20.9 billion during the third quarter of 2021, increasing 15.5% year-over-year. Notably, overseas IoT and lifestyle products revenue reached a new record high despite the challenges in maritime shipping logistics overseas this quarter.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，物联网和生活产品部门收入为人民币209亿元，同比增长15.5%。值得注意的是，尽管本季度海外海运物流面临挑战，但海外物联网和生活方式产品收入仍创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> In the third quarter of 2021, revenue from&nbsp;internet services segment rose to RMB7.3 billion, reaching a new quarterly high, representing an increase of 27.1% year-over-year. The gross profit margin of&nbsp;internet services segment was 73.6%, 13.1 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度，互联网服务业务收入增至人民币73亿元，创季度新高，同比增长27.1%。互联网服务板块毛利率为73.6%，较去年同期高13.1个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;revenue from overseas markets reached RMB40.9 billion during the third quarter of 2021, accounting for 52.4% of total revenue. Despite the global shortage of key components, company solidified&nbsp;market position by optimizing global market resource allocation and reinforcing&nbsp;channels in accordance with local market conditions. According to Canalys,&nbsp;market share of smartphone shipments in the third quarter ranked No. 1 in 11 countries and regions and among the top five in 59 countries and regions globally.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第三季度来自海外市场的收入达到人民币409亿元，占总收入的52.4%。在全球关键零部件短缺的情况下，公司通过优化全球市场资源配置，根据当地市场情况加强渠道建设，巩固了市场地位。根据Canalys的数据，第三季度智能手机出货量市场份额在11个国家和地区排名第一，在全球59个国家和地区排名前五。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150608449","content_text":"XIAOMI's total revenue amounted to RMB78.1 billion for Q3, representing an increase of 8.2% year-over-year.\nIn the third quarter of 2021, smartphone revenue totaled RMB47.8 billion with a gross margin of 12.8%, an increase of 4.4 percentage points year-over-year. Despite the global supply shortage of key components, smartphone shipments in the quarter still reached 43.9 million. According to Canalys, global smartphone shipments ranked No. 3 in the third quarter of 2021, with a market share of 13.5%.\nIoT and lifestyle products segment revenue was RMB20.9 billion during the third quarter of 2021, increasing 15.5% year-over-year. Notably, overseas IoT and lifestyle products revenue reached a new record high despite the challenges in maritime shipping logistics overseas this quarter.\nIn the third quarter of 2021, revenue from internet services segment rose to RMB7.3 billion, reaching a new quarterly high, representing an increase of 27.1% year-over-year. The gross profit margin of internet services segment was 73.6%, 13.1 percentage points higher than the same period of last year.\nThe revenue from overseas markets reached RMB40.9 billion during the third quarter of 2021, accounting for 52.4% of total revenue. Despite the global shortage of key components, company solidified market position by optimizing global market resource allocation and reinforcing channels in accordance with local market conditions. According to Canalys, market share of smartphone shipments in the third quarter ranked No. 1 in 11 countries and regions and among the top five in 59 countries and regions globally.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01810":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871792602,"gmtCreate":1637110729281,"gmtModify":1637110729566,"author":{"id":"4087735305621010","authorId":"4087735305621010","name":"blackblack1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a3f9b815b90862b1826692953a69dd","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087735305621010","idStr":"4087735305621010"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">$Salesforce.com(CRM)$</a>happy","listText":"<a 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