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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-09-16
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-08-16
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-08-05
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  Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August<blockquote>高盛8月份前13名图表</blockquote>
  The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trad
  Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August<blockquote>高盛8月份前13名图表</blockquote>
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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-07-26
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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-07-01
  What comes next
  The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>
  Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year. The S&P 5
  The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>
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like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899972553","repostId":"1105489937","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105489937","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628155377,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105489937?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 17:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August<blockquote>高盛8月份前13名图表</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105489937","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trad","content":"<p>The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trades to dangle before their clients, and that's just what Goldman traders Scott Rubner, Matthew Fleury, Matthieu Martal , Kavita Vaja, and Jonas Bovbjerg are doing by putting together the following 13 charts that capture some of the best ideas and trade recos emerging from the world's most powerful trading desk.</p><p><blockquote>新的一个月的开始意味着高盛的流量交易员需要一套新的令人兴奋的想法和交易摆在他们的客户面前，这正是高盛交易员Scott Rubner、Matthew Fleury、Matthieu Martal、Kavita Vaja和Jonas Bovbjerg正在做的事情，他们将以下13张图表放在一起，捕捉了来自世界上最强大的交易台的一些最佳想法和交易记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. \"If you are a stock picker watching earnings prints you are likely fully engaged this week.</b>This week will be peak liquidity for the rest of the summer. Vacation or extended vacation schedules officially kick off next week after earnings season. As we sit right now. Liquidity is at the highs into a busy week\"</p><p><blockquote><b>1.“如果您是一名关注财报的选股者，本周您可能会全神贯注。</b>本周将是夏季剩余时间的流动性高峰。假期或延长假期计划将于下周财报季后正式开始。就像我们现在坐的那样。流动性处于高位，进入繁忙的一周”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7085a22959ed7e6fdb8e3dfe125c1d20\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2. \"I think equities would be fine with higher yields</b>- the negative correlation of SPX &amp; NDX with the 30yr has turned positive again. Higher yields are much less of a problem than they were earlier this year\"</p><p><blockquote><b>2.“我认为股票收益率较高会很好</b>-SPX和NDX与30年期的负相关性再次转为正相关性。与今年早些时候相比，较高的收益率问题要小得多”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e5c5950acc89489fb308d300c3dc20f\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>3.</b>\"<b>China Regulation:</b>&nbsp;As the regulatory pressure on China's leading offshore internet &amp; education firms has increased in recent weeks, tech hardware companies listed onshore have outperformed the Chinese market. With the broader Chinese economy still in a growth phase (with Chinese equities historically displaying 22% return over 15months, entirely driven by earnings re-rating), and earnings revisions outside of the internet sector higher year to date (MSCI China ex Internet EPS up +5% vs China Internet EPS down -22% YTD), this basket is designed to benefit from the expansion of China's high tech manufacturing capabilities. For the first time in 5 years we have seen a meaningful divergence between HK and China listed Tech. ADRs have consistently underperformed.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>3.</b>\"<b>中国法规：</b>最近几周，随着中国领先的离岸互联网和教育公司面临的监管压力加大，在境内上市的科技硬件公司的表现优于中国市场。由于更广泛的中国经济仍处于增长阶段（中国股市在15个月内的回报率为22%，完全是由盈利重新评级推动的），以及今年迄今为止互联网行业以外的盈利修正较高（MSCI中国除外互联网每股收益上涨+5%，而中国互联网每股收益年初至今下降-22%），该篮子旨在受益于中国高科技制造能力的扩张。五年来，我们首次看到香港和中国上市科技公司之间存在显着差异。美国存托凭证的表现一直不佳。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b5efa9b164299c0081319274ad88464\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Implied dispersion levels have structurally reset higher over the past 5Y in Europe &amp; US.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.在过去的5年里，欧洲和美国的隐含离差水平结构性地重置为更高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd483873504d2edb4cce8ab9f3dca03\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Dispersion performance has been stable due to rising realized levels over the same period</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.由于同期实现水平上升，分散性能一直稳定</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd483873504d2edb4cce8ab9f3dca03\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>6. SX5E 1Y Vega neutral dispersion offered defensives properties in GFC &amp; COVID due to realized volatility spikes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.由于实现了波动性峰值，SX5E 1Y Vega中性分散体在GFC和COVID中提供了防御特性。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828358d146ae81f8416d3e6260df9471\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"434\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Index implied volatility has reset sharply lower pre- and post-COVID,</b>which has contributed to rising implied entry levels for dispersion. However, the compression of index realized volatility since the US elections has maintained stable dispersion performance from the index leg. SX5E 1Y Dispersion performance has been stable due to contribution from both index and single-stock legs.</p><p><blockquote><b>7.指数隐含波动率在新冠疫情前后大幅降低，</b>这导致了离散的隐含进入水平的上升。然而，自美国大选以来指数已实现波动率的压缩使指数腿保持了稳定的分散表现。由于指数和个股的贡献，SX5E 1Y分散表现一直稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79d93d1babf3fbcd8240888633b008f\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"438\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>8. The fall in index implied volatility in recent years can be partly explained by the sharp fall in index implied correlation levels as well as falling demand for upside call options in European equities.</b>Market-implied average single-stock correlation shows that whilst index implied volatility has fallen since 2015 and again post-COVID, driving the implied dispersion entry level higher, this has coincided with a sharp fall in implied correlation levels over the same period. Therefore, dispersion strategies which sell expensive implied correlation have continued to perform well despite higher implied dispersion entry levels. SX5E 1Y implied correlation has fallen more than index implied volatility levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>8.近年来指数隐含波动率下降的部分原因是指数隐含相关性水平急剧下降，以及欧洲股票对上行看涨期权期权的需求下降。</b>市场隐含平均个股相关性显示，虽然指数隐含波动率自2015年以来下降，并在COVID后再次下降，推动隐含离差进入水平上升，但这与同期隐含相关性水平急剧下降相吻合。因此，尽管隐含离差进入水平较高，但出售昂贵的隐含相关性的离差策略继续表现良好。SX5E 1Y隐含相关性的跌幅超过了指数隐含波动率水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c4e4fd3d5c2103c572126ee034d92ee\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Correlation of returns on t vs t-1 is deeply negative in SX5E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9.在SX5E中，t与t-1的回报相关性非常负</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/999e9e1449cc5df8c196025b2f68b08b\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Despite the spread trading off the lower values during the post-Mar20 period, it remains at historical lows (18th percentile vs. past 5y).</b>The recent pick up in realized spread should support the forward vol level as we roll into the spot spread. Term-structure roll is favorable due to the steepness of the SPX term structure (~0.5v positive carry over the next 3m, everything else remaining equal). The spot spread gets delivered in December at extreme lows, &gt;3v below current 6m realized.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.尽管利差在2020年3月后期间脱离了较低的值，但仍处于历史低点（第18个百分点与过去5年相比）。</b>随着我们进入现货价差，最近已实现价差的回升应该会支撑远期成交量水平。由于SPX期限结构的陡度（在接下来的3m上约0.5 V正进位，其他条件保持不变），期限结构滚动是有利的。现货价差在12月份以极低的价格交付，比当前实现的6m低3v以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9641a36f2830851d562be4216ceea61e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Significant roll-up in the SX5E-SPX spread</b></p><p><blockquote><b>11.SX5E-SPX价差大幅上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e03effca5987dae6fb8b74a564e750e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Realized correlation between broader market vs. Momentum vs. EU Cyclicals/Defensives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12.大盘与动量与欧盟周期性/防御性之间已实现的相关性</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e03effca5987dae6fb8b74a564e750e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>13. VOW3 term structure has materially flattened over the past year</b>(<b>red</b>&nbsp;vs.<b>grey</b>), driven by a combination of call overwriting in the front-end and more recently, long-dated upside options buyers. Implied volatility has also recently reset lower across the curve (<b>red</b>&nbsp;vs.<b>navy</b>) and the skew is flat/call skew is inverted. Therefore, consider owning long-dated upside call spreads which offer a high max. payout ratio (chart 4,<b>navy</b>) where you sell a call 3v higher (<b>grey</b>) than where you buy a call.</p><p><blockquote><b>13.VOW3期限结构在过去一年中基本持平</b>(<b>红色</b>vs.<b>灰色</b>），受到前端看涨期权覆盖和最近长期上行期权买家的共同推动。隐含波动率最近也在曲线上重置较低（<b>红色</b>vs.<b>海军</b>)并且偏斜是平的/看涨期权偏斜是反的。因此，考虑持有长期上行看涨期权利差，它提供了很高的最大派息率（图4，<b>海军</b>)哪里有卖看涨期权3v高的(<b>灰色</b>）比您购买看涨期权的地方还要多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daaa03296f95fab3243b899b370370c0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August<blockquote>高盛8月份前13名图表</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August<blockquote>高盛8月份前13名图表</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-05 17:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trades to dangle before their clients, and that's just what Goldman traders Scott Rubner, Matthew Fleury, Matthieu Martal , Kavita Vaja, and Jonas Bovbjerg are doing by putting together the following 13 charts that capture some of the best ideas and trade recos emerging from the world's most powerful trading desk.</p><p><blockquote>新的一个月的开始意味着高盛的流量交易员需要一套新的令人兴奋的想法和交易摆在他们的客户面前，这正是高盛交易员Scott Rubner、Matthew Fleury、Matthieu Martal、Kavita Vaja和Jonas Bovbjerg正在做的事情，他们将以下13张图表放在一起，捕捉了来自世界上最强大的交易台的一些最佳想法和交易记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. \"If you are a stock picker watching earnings prints you are likely fully engaged this week.</b>This week will be peak liquidity for the rest of the summer. Vacation or extended vacation schedules officially kick off next week after earnings season. As we sit right now. Liquidity is at the highs into a busy week\"</p><p><blockquote><b>1.“如果您是一名关注财报的选股者，本周您可能会全神贯注。</b>本周将是夏季剩余时间的流动性高峰。假期或延长假期计划将于下周财报季后正式开始。就像我们现在坐的那样。流动性处于高位，进入繁忙的一周”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7085a22959ed7e6fdb8e3dfe125c1d20\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2. \"I think equities would be fine with higher yields</b>- the negative correlation of SPX &amp; NDX with the 30yr has turned positive again. Higher yields are much less of a problem than they were earlier this year\"</p><p><blockquote><b>2.“我认为股票收益率较高会很好</b>-SPX和NDX与30年期的负相关性再次转为正相关性。与今年早些时候相比，较高的收益率问题要小得多”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e5c5950acc89489fb308d300c3dc20f\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>3.</b>\"<b>China Regulation:</b>&nbsp;As the regulatory pressure on China's leading offshore internet &amp; education firms has increased in recent weeks, tech hardware companies listed onshore have outperformed the Chinese market. With the broader Chinese economy still in a growth phase (with Chinese equities historically displaying 22% return over 15months, entirely driven by earnings re-rating), and earnings revisions outside of the internet sector higher year to date (MSCI China ex Internet EPS up +5% vs China Internet EPS down -22% YTD), this basket is designed to benefit from the expansion of China's high tech manufacturing capabilities. For the first time in 5 years we have seen a meaningful divergence between HK and China listed Tech. ADRs have consistently underperformed.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>3.</b>\"<b>中国法规：</b>最近几周，随着中国领先的离岸互联网和教育公司面临的监管压力加大，在境内上市的科技硬件公司的表现优于中国市场。由于更广泛的中国经济仍处于增长阶段（中国股市在15个月内的回报率为22%，完全是由盈利重新评级推动的），以及今年迄今为止互联网行业以外的盈利修正较高（MSCI中国除外互联网每股收益上涨+5%，而中国互联网每股收益年初至今下降-22%），该篮子旨在受益于中国高科技制造能力的扩张。五年来，我们首次看到香港和中国上市科技公司之间存在显着差异。美国存托凭证的表现一直不佳。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b5efa9b164299c0081319274ad88464\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Implied dispersion levels have structurally reset higher over the past 5Y in Europe &amp; US.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.在过去的5年里，欧洲和美国的隐含离差水平结构性地重置为更高。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd483873504d2edb4cce8ab9f3dca03\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Dispersion performance has been stable due to rising realized levels over the same period</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.由于同期实现水平上升，分散性能一直稳定</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd483873504d2edb4cce8ab9f3dca03\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>6. SX5E 1Y Vega neutral dispersion offered defensives properties in GFC &amp; COVID due to realized volatility spikes.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.由于实现了波动性峰值，SX5E 1Y Vega中性分散体在GFC和COVID中提供了防御特性。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828358d146ae81f8416d3e6260df9471\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"434\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>7. Index implied volatility has reset sharply lower pre- and post-COVID,</b>which has contributed to rising implied entry levels for dispersion. However, the compression of index realized volatility since the US elections has maintained stable dispersion performance from the index leg. SX5E 1Y Dispersion performance has been stable due to contribution from both index and single-stock legs.</p><p><blockquote><b>7.指数隐含波动率在新冠疫情前后大幅降低，</b>这导致了离散的隐含进入水平的上升。然而，自美国大选以来指数已实现波动率的压缩使指数腿保持了稳定的分散表现。由于指数和个股的贡献，SX5E 1Y分散表现一直稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79d93d1babf3fbcd8240888633b008f\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"438\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>8. The fall in index implied volatility in recent years can be partly explained by the sharp fall in index implied correlation levels as well as falling demand for upside call options in European equities.</b>Market-implied average single-stock correlation shows that whilst index implied volatility has fallen since 2015 and again post-COVID, driving the implied dispersion entry level higher, this has coincided with a sharp fall in implied correlation levels over the same period. Therefore, dispersion strategies which sell expensive implied correlation have continued to perform well despite higher implied dispersion entry levels. SX5E 1Y implied correlation has fallen more than index implied volatility levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>8.近年来指数隐含波动率下降的部分原因是指数隐含相关性水平急剧下降，以及欧洲股票对上行看涨期权期权的需求下降。</b>市场隐含平均个股相关性显示，虽然指数隐含波动率自2015年以来下降，并在COVID后再次下降，推动隐含离差进入水平上升，但这与同期隐含相关性水平急剧下降相吻合。因此，尽管隐含离差进入水平较高，但出售昂贵的隐含相关性的离差策略继续表现良好。SX5E 1Y隐含相关性的跌幅超过了指数隐含波动率水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c4e4fd3d5c2103c572126ee034d92ee\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>9. Correlation of returns on t vs t-1 is deeply negative in SX5E</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9.在SX5E中，t与t-1的回报相关性非常负</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/999e9e1449cc5df8c196025b2f68b08b\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>10. Despite the spread trading off the lower values during the post-Mar20 period, it remains at historical lows (18th percentile vs. past 5y).</b>The recent pick up in realized spread should support the forward vol level as we roll into the spot spread. Term-structure roll is favorable due to the steepness of the SPX term structure (~0.5v positive carry over the next 3m, everything else remaining equal). The spot spread gets delivered in December at extreme lows, &gt;3v below current 6m realized.</p><p><blockquote><b>10.尽管利差在2020年3月后期间脱离了较低的值，但仍处于历史低点（第18个百分点与过去5年相比）。</b>随着我们进入现货价差，最近已实现价差的回升应该会支撑远期成交量水平。由于SPX期限结构的陡度（在接下来的3m上约0.5 V正进位，其他条件保持不变），期限结构滚动是有利的。现货价差在12月份以极低的价格交付，比当前实现的6m低3v以上。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9641a36f2830851d562be4216ceea61e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>11. Significant roll-up in the SX5E-SPX spread</b></p><p><blockquote><b>11.SX5E-SPX价差大幅上涨</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e03effca5987dae6fb8b74a564e750e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>12. Realized correlation between broader market vs. Momentum vs. EU Cyclicals/Defensives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12.大盘与动量与欧盟周期性/防御性之间已实现的相关性</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e03effca5987dae6fb8b74a564e750e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>13. VOW3 term structure has materially flattened over the past year</b>(<b>red</b>&nbsp;vs.<b>grey</b>), driven by a combination of call overwriting in the front-end and more recently, long-dated upside options buyers. Implied volatility has also recently reset lower across the curve (<b>red</b>&nbsp;vs.<b>navy</b>) and the skew is flat/call skew is inverted. Therefore, consider owning long-dated upside call spreads which offer a high max. payout ratio (chart 4,<b>navy</b>) where you sell a call 3v higher (<b>grey</b>) than where you buy a call.</p><p><blockquote><b>13.VOW3期限结构在过去一年中基本持平</b>(<b>红色</b>vs.<b>灰色</b>），受到前端看涨期权覆盖和最近长期上行期权买家的共同推动。隐含波动率最近也在曲线上重置较低（<b>红色</b>vs.<b>海军</b>)并且偏斜是平的/看涨期权偏斜是反的。因此，考虑持有长期上行看涨期权利差，它提供了很高的最大派息率（图4，<b>海军</b>)哪里有卖看涨期权3v高的(<b>灰色</b>）比您购买看涨期权的地方还要多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daaa03296f95fab3243b899b370370c0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-top-13-charts-month-august\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-top-13-charts-month-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105489937","content_text":"The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trades to dangle before their clients, and that's just what Goldman traders Scott Rubner, Matthew Fleury, Matthieu Martal , Kavita Vaja, and Jonas Bovbjerg are doing by putting together the following 13 charts that capture some of the best ideas and trade recos emerging from the world's most powerful trading desk.\n1. \"If you are a stock picker watching earnings prints you are likely fully engaged this week.This week will be peak liquidity for the rest of the summer. Vacation or extended vacation schedules officially kick off next week after earnings season. As we sit right now. Liquidity is at the highs into a busy week\"\n2. \"I think equities would be fine with higher yields- the negative correlation of SPX & NDX with the 30yr has turned positive again. Higher yields are much less of a problem than they were earlier this year\"\n\n3.\"China Regulation: As the regulatory pressure on China's leading offshore internet & education firms has increased in recent weeks, tech hardware companies listed onshore have outperformed the Chinese market. With the broader Chinese economy still in a growth phase (with Chinese equities historically displaying 22% return over 15months, entirely driven by earnings re-rating), and earnings revisions outside of the internet sector higher year to date (MSCI China ex Internet EPS up +5% vs China Internet EPS down -22% YTD), this basket is designed to benefit from the expansion of China's high tech manufacturing capabilities. For the first time in 5 years we have seen a meaningful divergence between HK and China listed Tech. ADRs have consistently underperformed.\"\n\n4. Implied dispersion levels have structurally reset higher over the past 5Y in Europe & US.\n\n5. Dispersion performance has been stable due to rising realized levels over the same period\n\n6. SX5E 1Y Vega neutral dispersion offered defensives properties in GFC & COVID due to realized volatility spikes.\n\n7. Index implied volatility has reset sharply lower pre- and post-COVID,which has contributed to rising implied entry levels for dispersion. However, the compression of index realized volatility since the US elections has maintained stable dispersion performance from the index leg. SX5E 1Y Dispersion performance has been stable due to contribution from both index and single-stock legs.\n\n8. The fall in index implied volatility in recent years can be partly explained by the sharp fall in index implied correlation levels as well as falling demand for upside call options in European equities.Market-implied average single-stock correlation shows that whilst index implied volatility has fallen since 2015 and again post-COVID, driving the implied dispersion entry level higher, this has coincided with a sharp fall in implied correlation levels over the same period. Therefore, dispersion strategies which sell expensive implied correlation have continued to perform well despite higher implied dispersion entry levels. SX5E 1Y implied correlation has fallen more than index implied volatility levels.\n\n9. Correlation of returns on t vs t-1 is deeply negative in SX5E\n\n10. Despite the spread trading off the lower values during the post-Mar20 period, it remains at historical lows (18th percentile vs. past 5y).The recent pick up in realized spread should support the forward vol level as we roll into the spot spread. Term-structure roll is favorable due to the steepness of the SPX term structure (~0.5v positive carry over the next 3m, everything else remaining equal). The spot spread gets delivered in December at extreme lows, >3v below current 6m realized.\n\n11. Significant roll-up in the SX5E-SPX spread\n\n12. Realized correlation between broader market vs. Momentum vs. EU Cyclicals/Defensives\n\n13. VOW3 term structure has materially flattened over the past year(red vs.grey), driven by a combination of call overwriting in the front-end and more recently, long-dated upside options buyers. Implied volatility has also recently reset lower across the curve (red vs.navy) and the skew is flat/call skew is inverted. Therefore, consider owning long-dated upside call spreads which offer a high max. payout ratio (chart 4,navy) where you sell a call 3v higher (grey) than where you buy a call.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800351740,"gmtCreate":1627280815380,"gmtModify":1631889310382,"author":{"id":"4088105701951210","authorId":"4088105701951210","name":"Kkwonders","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1afc16eaae98c55b3779dc496133925e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088105701951210","authorIdStr":"4088105701951210"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800351740","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2153,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158892335,"gmtCreate":1625142385727,"gmtModify":1631889310385,"author":{"id":"4088105701951210","authorId":"4088105701951210","name":"Kkwonders","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1afc16eaae98c55b3779dc496133925e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088105701951210","authorIdStr":"4088105701951210"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What comes next&nbsp;","listText":"What comes next&nbsp;","text":"What comes next","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158892335","repostId":"1106223449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106223449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625122086,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106223449?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106223449","media":"Barrons","summary":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 5","content":"<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自1979年以来，标普500上半年涨幅达到或超过10%已有14次。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p><p><blockquote>标普500的上半年表现是自互联网泡沫以来第二好的。如果股市继续上涨，不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> With June coming to an end, the S&amp;P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p><p><blockquote>随着6月接近尾声，标普500以14.4%的涨幅结束了2021年上半年。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的增幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19疫苗接种提振了市场，帮助美国经济重新开放，而数万亿美元的财政刺激措施帮助支撑了需求。尽管对通胀的担忧加剧了人们对美联储将被迫采取措施减缓经济增长的猜测，但涨幅仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and&nbsp;cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that&nbsp;U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨和美联储更加鹰派的结合引发了市场过于自满的担忧。如果通胀持续持续足够长的时间，央行可能会被迫以比市场预期更快的速度采取行动，并导致股市暴跌。其他人担心美国。经济增长放缓的速度可能快于投资者的预期，导致经济增长放缓。</blockquote></p><p> For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>对于持这种观点的人来说，没有比现在更好的退出股市的时机了。历史表明并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>自1979年以来，标普500上半年涨幅达到或超过10%的有14次，下半年该指数平均涨幅为6.3%。更重要的是，该指数在下半年有11次（即79%的时间）走高。</blockquote></p><p> Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p><p><blockquote>即使是损失，当它们发生时，也没有那么糟糕。标普500在1983年下半年下降了1.9%，在1986年最后六个月下降了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called&nbsp;portfolio insurance&nbsp;was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was&nbsp;a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一个例外是1987年的最后六个月，该指数在下半年下跌了19%。那段时间包括黑色星期一，当时标普500在一天内下跌了20%，仍然是创纪录的跌幅。虽然与所谓投资组合保险相关的抛售最终被归咎于损失的规模和速度，但1987年下半年是债券收益率上升和股市估值高的时期，就像2021年上半年一样。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&amp;P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank&nbsp;Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场一直表现得想要走高，而不是走低。回调是牛市中的正常事件，在2021年表现温和，最大跌幅不到4%。Instinet首席市场技术员Frank Cappelleri写道：“[标普500]在2021年所做的就是在需要的时间和地点回升，始终保持上升趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&amp;P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p><p><blockquote>下半年6.3%的平均涨幅将使标普500的全年涨幅达到23%左右。Fundstrat的汤姆·李(Tom Lee)表示，这将代表着从衰退中“教科书式的[市场]复苏”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p><p><blockquote>至少就目前而言，阻力最小的路径更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.<blockquote>标普500取得了自互联网泡沫以来第二好的上半年成绩。接下来会发生什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 14:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自1979年以来，标普500上半年涨幅达到或超过10%已有14次。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p><p><blockquote>标普500的上半年表现是自互联网泡沫以来第二好的。如果股市继续上涨，不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> With June coming to an end, the S&amp;P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p><p><blockquote>随着6月接近尾声，标普500以14.4%的涨幅结束了2021年上半年。自1998年以来，只有2019年上半年17.4%的增幅更大。</blockquote></p><p> The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p><p><blockquote>Covid-19疫苗接种提振了市场，帮助美国经济重新开放，而数万亿美元的财政刺激措施帮助支撑了需求。尽管对通胀的担忧加剧了人们对美联储将被迫采取措施减缓经济增长的猜测，但涨幅仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and&nbsp;cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that&nbsp;U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p><p><blockquote>大幅上涨和美联储更加鹰派的结合引发了市场过于自满的担忧。如果通胀持续持续足够长的时间，央行可能会被迫以比市场预期更快的速度采取行动，并导致股市暴跌。其他人担心美国。经济增长放缓的速度可能快于投资者的预期，导致经济增长放缓。</blockquote></p><p> For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>对于持这种观点的人来说，没有比现在更好的退出股市的时机了。历史表明并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p><p><blockquote>自1979年以来，标普500上半年涨幅达到或超过10%的有14次，下半年该指数平均涨幅为6.3%。更重要的是，该指数在下半年有11次（即79%的时间）走高。</blockquote></p><p> Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p><p><blockquote>即使是损失，当它们发生时，也没有那么糟糕。标普500在1983年下半年下降了1.9%，在1986年最后六个月下降了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called&nbsp;portfolio insurance&nbsp;was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was&nbsp;a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>一个例外是1987年的最后六个月，该指数在下半年下跌了19%。那段时间包括黑色星期一，当时标普500在一天内下跌了20%，仍然是创纪录的跌幅。虽然与所谓投资组合保险相关的抛售最终被归咎于损失的规模和速度，但1987年下半年是债券收益率上升和股市估值高的时期，就像2021年上半年一样。</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&amp;P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank&nbsp;Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场一直表现得想要走高，而不是走低。回调是牛市中的正常事件，在2021年表现温和，最大跌幅不到4%。Instinet首席市场技术员Frank Cappelleri写道：“[标普500]在2021年所做的就是在需要的时间和地点回升，始终保持上升趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&amp;P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p><p><blockquote>下半年6.3%的平均涨幅将使标普500的全年涨幅达到23%左右。Fundstrat的汤姆·李(Tom Lee)表示，这将代表着从衰退中“教科书式的[市场]复苏”。</blockquote></p><p> For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p><p><blockquote>至少就目前而言，阻力最小的路径更高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106223449","content_text":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.\nWith June coming to an end, the S&P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.\nThe market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.\nThe combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.\nFor those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.\nSince 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.\nEven the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.\nThe one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called portfolio insurance was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.\nStill, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.\nThat 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.\nFor now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}