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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-09-16
  Like please
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-08-16
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-08-05
  Please like
  Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August
  The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trad
  Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August
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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-07-26
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  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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- KkwondersKkwonders
  ·2021-07-01
  What comes next
  The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.
  Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year. The S&P 5
  The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.
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like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899972553","repostId":"1105489937","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105489937","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628155377,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105489937?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-05 17:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105489937","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trad","content":"<p>The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trades to dangle before their clients, and that's just what Goldman traders Scott Rubner, Matthew Fleury, Matthieu Martal , Kavita Vaja, and Jonas Bovbjerg are doing by putting together the following 13 charts that capture some of the best ideas and trade recos emerging from the world's most powerful trading desk.</p>\n<p><b>1. \"If you are a stock picker watching earnings prints you are likely fully engaged this week.</b>This week will be peak liquidity for the rest of the summer. Vacation or extended vacation schedules officially kick off next week after earnings season. As we sit right now. Liquidity is at the highs into a busy week\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7085a22959ed7e6fdb8e3dfe125c1d20\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>2. \"I think equities would be fine with higher yields</b>- the negative correlation of SPX &amp; NDX with the 30yr has turned positive again. Higher yields are much less of a problem than they were earlier this year\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e5c5950acc89489fb308d300c3dc20f\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>3.</b>\"<b>China Regulation:</b>&nbsp;As the regulatory pressure on China's leading offshore internet &amp; education firms has increased in recent weeks, tech hardware companies listed onshore have outperformed the Chinese market. With the broader Chinese economy still in a growth phase (with Chinese equities historically displaying 22% return over 15months, entirely driven by earnings re-rating), and earnings revisions outside of the internet sector higher year to date (MSCI China ex Internet EPS up +5% vs China Internet EPS down -22% YTD), this basket is designed to benefit from the expansion of China's high tech manufacturing capabilities. For the first time in 5 years we have seen a meaningful divergence between HK and China listed Tech. ADRs have consistently underperformed.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b5efa9b164299c0081319274ad88464\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>4. Implied dispersion levels have structurally reset higher over the past 5Y in Europe &amp; US.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd483873504d2edb4cce8ab9f3dca03\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>5. Dispersion performance has been stable due to rising realized levels over the same period</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8dd483873504d2edb4cce8ab9f3dca03\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"440\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>6. SX5E 1Y Vega neutral dispersion offered defensives properties in GFC &amp; COVID due to realized volatility spikes.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/828358d146ae81f8416d3e6260df9471\" tg-width=\"606\" tg-height=\"434\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>7. Index implied volatility has reset sharply lower pre- and post-COVID,</b>which has contributed to rising implied entry levels for dispersion. However, the compression of index realized volatility since the US elections has maintained stable dispersion performance from the index leg. SX5E 1Y Dispersion performance has been stable due to contribution from both index and single-stock legs.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f79d93d1babf3fbcd8240888633b008f\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"438\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>8. The fall in index implied volatility in recent years can be partly explained by the sharp fall in index implied correlation levels as well as falling demand for upside call options in European equities.</b>Market-implied average single-stock correlation shows that whilst index implied volatility has fallen since 2015 and again post-COVID, driving the implied dispersion entry level higher, this has coincided with a sharp fall in implied correlation levels over the same period. Therefore, dispersion strategies which sell expensive implied correlation have continued to perform well despite higher implied dispersion entry levels. SX5E 1Y implied correlation has fallen more than index implied volatility levels.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c4e4fd3d5c2103c572126ee034d92ee\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>9. Correlation of returns on t vs t-1 is deeply negative in SX5E</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/999e9e1449cc5df8c196025b2f68b08b\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>10. Despite the spread trading off the lower values during the post-Mar20 period, it remains at historical lows (18th percentile vs. past 5y).</b>The recent pick up in realized spread should support the forward vol level as we roll into the spot spread. Term-structure roll is favorable due to the steepness of the SPX term structure (~0.5v positive carry over the next 3m, everything else remaining equal). The spot spread gets delivered in December at extreme lows, &gt;3v below current 6m realized.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9641a36f2830851d562be4216ceea61e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>11. Significant roll-up in the SX5E-SPX spread</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e03effca5987dae6fb8b74a564e750e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>12. Realized correlation between broader market vs. Momentum vs. EU Cyclicals/Defensives</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e03effca5987dae6fb8b74a564e750e\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p><b>13. VOW3 term structure has materially flattened over the past year</b>(<b>red</b>&nbsp;vs.<b>grey</b>), driven by a combination of call overwriting in the front-end and more recently, long-dated upside options buyers. Implied volatility has also recently reset lower across the curve (<b>red</b>&nbsp;vs.<b>navy</b>) and the skew is flat/call skew is inverted. Therefore, consider owning long-dated upside call spreads which offer a high max. payout ratio (chart 4,<b>navy</b>) where you sell a call 3v higher (<b>grey</b>) than where you buy a call.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/daaa03296f95fab3243b899b370370c0\" tg-width=\"650\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman's Top 13 Charts For The Month Of August\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-05 17:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-top-13-charts-month-august><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trades to dangle before their clients, and that's just what Goldman traders Scott Rubner, Matthew Fleury...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-top-13-charts-month-august\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldmans-top-13-charts-month-august","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105489937","content_text":"The start of a new month means that Goldman's flow traders need a new set of exciting ideas and trades to dangle before their clients, and that's just what Goldman traders Scott Rubner, Matthew Fleury, Matthieu Martal , Kavita Vaja, and Jonas Bovbjerg are doing by putting together the following 13 charts that capture some of the best ideas and trade recos emerging from the world's most powerful trading desk.\n1. \"If you are a stock picker watching earnings prints you are likely fully engaged this week.This week will be peak liquidity for the rest of the summer. Vacation or extended vacation schedules officially kick off next week after earnings season. As we sit right now. Liquidity is at the highs into a busy week\"\n2. \"I think equities would be fine with higher yields- the negative correlation of SPX & NDX with the 30yr has turned positive again. Higher yields are much less of a problem than they were earlier this year\"\n\n3.\"China Regulation: As the regulatory pressure on China's leading offshore internet & education firms has increased in recent weeks, tech hardware companies listed onshore have outperformed the Chinese market. With the broader Chinese economy still in a growth phase (with Chinese equities historically displaying 22% return over 15months, entirely driven by earnings re-rating), and earnings revisions outside of the internet sector higher year to date (MSCI China ex Internet EPS up +5% vs China Internet EPS down -22% YTD), this basket is designed to benefit from the expansion of China's high tech manufacturing capabilities. For the first time in 5 years we have seen a meaningful divergence between HK and China listed Tech. ADRs have consistently underperformed.\"\n\n4. Implied dispersion levels have structurally reset higher over the past 5Y in Europe & US.\n\n5. Dispersion performance has been stable due to rising realized levels over the same period\n\n6. SX5E 1Y Vega neutral dispersion offered defensives properties in GFC & COVID due to realized volatility spikes.\n\n7. Index implied volatility has reset sharply lower pre- and post-COVID,which has contributed to rising implied entry levels for dispersion. However, the compression of index realized volatility since the US elections has maintained stable dispersion performance from the index leg. SX5E 1Y Dispersion performance has been stable due to contribution from both index and single-stock legs.\n\n8. The fall in index implied volatility in recent years can be partly explained by the sharp fall in index implied correlation levels as well as falling demand for upside call options in European equities.Market-implied average single-stock correlation shows that whilst index implied volatility has fallen since 2015 and again post-COVID, driving the implied dispersion entry level higher, this has coincided with a sharp fall in implied correlation levels over the same period. Therefore, dispersion strategies which sell expensive implied correlation have continued to perform well despite higher implied dispersion entry levels. SX5E 1Y implied correlation has fallen more than index implied volatility levels.\n\n9. Correlation of returns on t vs t-1 is deeply negative in SX5E\n\n10. Despite the spread trading off the lower values during the post-Mar20 period, it remains at historical lows (18th percentile vs. past 5y).The recent pick up in realized spread should support the forward vol level as we roll into the spot spread. Term-structure roll is favorable due to the steepness of the SPX term structure (~0.5v positive carry over the next 3m, everything else remaining equal). The spot spread gets delivered in December at extreme lows, >3v below current 6m realized.\n\n11. Significant roll-up in the SX5E-SPX spread\n\n12. Realized correlation between broader market vs. Momentum vs. EU Cyclicals/Defensives\n\n13. VOW3 term structure has materially flattened over the past year(red vs.grey), driven by a combination of call overwriting in the front-end and more recently, long-dated upside options buyers. Implied volatility has also recently reset lower across the curve (red vs.navy) and the skew is flat/call skew is inverted. Therefore, consider owning long-dated upside call spreads which offer a high max. payout ratio (chart 4,navy) where you sell a call 3v higher (grey) than where you buy a call.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800351740,"gmtCreate":1627280815380,"gmtModify":1631889310382,"author":{"id":"4088105701951210","authorId":"4088105701951210","name":"Kkwonders","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1afc16eaae98c55b3779dc496133925e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088105701951210","authorIdStr":"4088105701951210"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800351740","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158892335,"gmtCreate":1625142385727,"gmtModify":1631889310385,"author":{"id":"4088105701951210","authorId":"4088105701951210","name":"Kkwonders","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1afc16eaae98c55b3779dc496133925e","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088105701951210","authorIdStr":"4088105701951210"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"What comes next&nbsp;","listText":"What comes next&nbsp;","text":"What comes next","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158892335","repostId":"1106223449","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106223449","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625122086,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106223449?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106223449","media":"Barrons","summary":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 5","content":"<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d70d0323609e9ce596a9a90e475422d1\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.</span></p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.</p>\n<p>With June coming to an end, the S&amp;P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.</p>\n<p>The market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.</p>\n<p>The combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and&nbsp;cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that&nbsp;U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.</p>\n<p>For those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.</p>\n<p>Since 1979, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.</p>\n<p>Even the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&amp;P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.</p>\n<p>The one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&amp;P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called&nbsp;portfolio insurance&nbsp;was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was&nbsp;a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.</p>\n<p>Still, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&amp;P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank&nbsp;Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.</p>\n<p>That 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&amp;P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.</p>\n<p>For now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cb229b2e05d59b9c126d464a7d771bb\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"647\"></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe S&P 500 Notches Its Second-Best First Half Since the Dot-Com Bubble. What Comes Next.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 14:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-futures-crash-gains-51625071996?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106223449","content_text":"Since 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed its second-best first half since the dot-com bubble. Don’t be surprised if the stock market keeps on rising.\nWith June coming to an end, the S&P 500 finished the first half of 2021 with a gain of 14.4%. Since 1998, only 2019’s 17.4% first-half surge has been larger.\nThe market got a boost from Covid-19 vaccinations, which have helped the U.S. economy reopen, while trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus have helped shore up demand. The gains continued even as concerns about inflation have increased speculation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to take steps to slow the economy.\nThe combination of big gains and a more hawkish Fed have raised concerns that the market has become too complacent. If inflation continues to run hot for long enough, the central bank could be forced to act more quickly than the market expects—and cause stocks to tumble. Others worry that U.S. economic growth could slow faster than investors anticipate, causing a pullback in the process.\nFor those who take that view, there is no better time to back away from the stock market than the present. History suggests otherwise.\nSince 1979, the S&P 500 has gained 10% or more 14 times during the first half of the year, and the index has gone on to average a 6.3% gain over the second half of the year. What’s more, the index finished the second half of the year higher In 11 of those instances, or 79% of the time.\nEven the losses, when they occurred, weren’t all that bad. The S&P 500 dropped 1.9% in the second half of 1983 and 3.5% during the last six months of 1986.\nThe one exception was the last six months of 1987 when the index fell 19% during the second half of the year. That period included Black Monday, when the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day, still a record loss. While selling linked to so-called portfolio insurance was ultimately blamed for the size and speed of the loss, the second half of 1987 was a period of rising bond yields and high stock-market valuations, just like the first half of 2021.\nStill, the market has been acting like it wants to go higher, not lower. Pullbacks, a normal event in the midst of bull runs, have been mild in 2021, with the largest drops being less than 4%. “What the [S&P 500] has done throughout 2021 is pick itself up when and where it has needed to, maintaining an uptrend all along,” writes Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet.\nThat 6.3% average second-half rise would push the S&P 500’s full-year gain to around 23%. That would represent a “textbook [market] recovery” from a recession, says Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.\nFor now, at least, the path of least resistance is higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":550,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}