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Sherminxm

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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-12-09
  $MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$[Miser]
  2,046 8
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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-10-11
  $SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Woooo
  1,736 评论
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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-08-13
  Okay noted
  2 Stocks to Buy When the Next Market Crash Comes
  Planning your actions ahead of market crashes makes following through easier.
  2 Stocks to Buy When the Next Market Crash Comes
  2,043 评论
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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-08-11
  Woo
  @Sherminxm：
  $ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$Woo
  $ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$Woo
  1,404 评论
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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-08-04
  $ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$Woo
  1,986 1
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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-08-03
  $MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$[Happy]
  1,026 评论
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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-07-31
  👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,505 评论
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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-07-22
  Ohhhh
  非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
  1,276 2
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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-07-20
  $MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$😁
  2,064 评论
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- SherminxmSherminxm
  ·2021-07-20
  Ooooooooooooo
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
  This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.
  Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual
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LTD(C6L.SI)$Woooo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c3e968a929b115062ecfda54362639","width":"1125","height":"2196"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828467322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":894648988,"gmtCreate":1628824478444,"gmtModify":1633689175768,"author":{"id":"4088434082181330","authorId":"4088434082181330","name":"Sherminxm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48bc204d5fc6b3e0603c2faf13a5f90","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088434082181330","authorIdStr":"4088434082181330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay noted&nbsp;","listText":"Okay noted&nbsp;","text":"Okay noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894648988","repostId":"2158709252","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158709252","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628772540,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2158709252?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 20:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Stocks to Buy When the Next Market Crash Comes","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158709252","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Planning your actions ahead of market crashes makes following through easier.","content":"<p><b>Roku</b> (NASDAQ:ROKU) and <b>Chewy</b> (NYSE:CHWY) are two excellent companies growing revenue and customers rapidly. Investors have noticed, and their stock prices are up 289% and 154%, respectively, over the last three years.</p>\n<p>One way you can get into these stocks at better prices would be during a stock market crash. Admittedly, it can be difficult to be a buyer when you see the market selling off. That's why it pays to look into companies you are interested in buying and put them on your list so that you can be ready to make the buy when the event occurs.</p>\n<p>Here are a few features of each stock that make these two companies attractive investments in the long run.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4cf59b52c0f0427b4b325944820d668\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"436\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data source: YCharts</span></p>\n<h2>1. Roku</h2>\n<p>Roku is benefiting from the long-run secular trend where consumers are switching from linear TV to streaming viewership. The rate of the shift may fluctuate but it's unlikely to change direction. According to Roku management, eventually, content will be 100% streaming. Indeed, here is what founder and CEO Anthony Wood said in its most recent conference call:</p>\n<blockquote>\n But I think the big picture for me is that we're still in the middle of this transition where viewers, advertisers, and the industry is moving 100% to streaming. We're just not there yet, but it's moving and it's happening. If you look, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> stat I think that's interesting from Nielsen is that if you look at 18 to 45-year-olds, 39% of their TV watching is streaming.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Roku has accumulated 55.1 million accounts, a 28% increase from the second quarter of last year. Undoubtedly, the pandemic helped accelerate customer acquisition. Folks were limited in entertainment options when ballparks, concerts, restaurants, and movie theaters were all shut down for most of the previous year.</p>\n<p>The company's operating system is reliable and fast. That's led many original equipment manufacturers to build TVs with Roku's operating system natively installed. Roku is the No. 1 TV operating system in the U.S. and Canada, and it's well on its way to international expansion.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a23631810a53cf2c4ddc7de5a5f41be\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Image source: Getty Images.</span></p>\n<h2>2. Chewy</h2>\n<p>Chewy is an exclusively online pet retailer. The company boasts 19.8 million active customers, 31.8% more than it had last year. The pandemic caused millions of pet parents to look for new options to fulfill their pet's everyday needs. Some may never return to shopping in brick-and-mortar stores. One reason is that Chewy offers customers automatic delivery of their pet's food and medicine.</p>\n<p>Indeed, in its most recent quarter, 69.3% of overall sales were through automatic delivery, or what Chewy calls Autoship. It makes people's lives easier as it is one less thing they need to remember. Chewy even offers a small discount on orders placed through Autoship. The company is piggybacking off the long-run spending moving online from retail locations.</p>\n<p>Revenue is growing rapidly, and Chewy is doing it efficiently. Its gross profit margin expanded from 16.6% in 2016 to 25.5% in 2021.</p>\n<h2>Investor takeaway</h2>\n<p>Roku and Chewy are doing an excellent job capturing their respective markets and solving a problem for their customers. Streaming content costs less, and viewers get liberated from lengthy cable contracts. Chewy gives pet parents the peace of mind to know food and medicine can be delivered automatically.</p>\n<p>The one hesitation investors could have with these two companies is their relatively rich valuations. Putting these stocks on your watch list and waiting for a market correction to buy could minimize that hesitation.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Stocks to Buy When the Next Market Crash Comes</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Stocks to Buy When the Next Market Crash Comes\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-12 20:49 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/12/2-stocks-to-buy-when-the-next-market-crash-comes/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) and Chewy (NYSE:CHWY) are two excellent companies growing revenue and customers rapidly. Investors have noticed, and their stock prices are up 289% and 154%, respectively, over the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/12/2-stocks-to-buy-when-the-next-market-crash-comes/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ROKU":"Roku Inc","CHWY":"Chewy, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/12/2-stocks-to-buy-when-the-next-market-crash-comes/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158709252","content_text":"Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) and Chewy (NYSE:CHWY) are two excellent companies growing revenue and customers rapidly. Investors have noticed, and their stock prices are up 289% and 154%, respectively, over the last three years.\nOne way you can get into these stocks at better prices would be during a stock market crash. Admittedly, it can be difficult to be a buyer when you see the market selling off. That's why it pays to look into companies you are interested in buying and put them on your list so that you can be ready to make the buy when the event occurs.\nHere are a few features of each stock that make these two companies attractive investments in the long run.\nData source: YCharts\n1. Roku\nRoku is benefiting from the long-run secular trend where consumers are switching from linear TV to streaming viewership. The rate of the shift may fluctuate but it's unlikely to change direction. According to Roku management, eventually, content will be 100% streaming. Indeed, here is what founder and CEO Anthony Wood said in its most recent conference call:\n\n But I think the big picture for me is that we're still in the middle of this transition where viewers, advertisers, and the industry is moving 100% to streaming. We're just not there yet, but it's moving and it's happening. If you look, one stat I think that's interesting from Nielsen is that if you look at 18 to 45-year-olds, 39% of their TV watching is streaming.\n\nRoku has accumulated 55.1 million accounts, a 28% increase from the second quarter of last year. Undoubtedly, the pandemic helped accelerate customer acquisition. Folks were limited in entertainment options when ballparks, concerts, restaurants, and movie theaters were all shut down for most of the previous year.\nThe company's operating system is reliable and fast. That's led many original equipment manufacturers to build TVs with Roku's operating system natively installed. Roku is the No. 1 TV operating system in the U.S. and Canada, and it's well on its way to international expansion.\nImage source: Getty Images.\n2. Chewy\nChewy is an exclusively online pet retailer. The company boasts 19.8 million active customers, 31.8% more than it had last year. The pandemic caused millions of pet parents to look for new options to fulfill their pet's everyday needs. Some may never return to shopping in brick-and-mortar stores. One reason is that Chewy offers customers automatic delivery of their pet's food and medicine.\nIndeed, in its most recent quarter, 69.3% of overall sales were through automatic delivery, or what Chewy calls Autoship. It makes people's lives easier as it is one less thing they need to remember. Chewy even offers a small discount on orders placed through Autoship. The company is piggybacking off the long-run spending moving online from retail locations.\nRevenue is growing rapidly, and Chewy is doing it efficiently. Its gross profit margin expanded from 16.6% in 2016 to 25.5% in 2021.\nInvestor takeaway\nRoku and Chewy are doing an excellent job capturing their respective markets and solving a problem for their customers. Streaming content costs less, and viewers get liberated from lengthy cable contracts. Chewy gives pet parents the peace of mind to know food and medicine can be delivered automatically.\nThe one hesitation investors could have with these two companies is their relatively rich valuations. Putting these stocks on your watch list and waiting for a market correction to buy could minimize that hesitation.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CHWY":0.9,"ROKU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892841187,"gmtCreate":1628650409649,"gmtModify":1633745369250,"author":{"id":"4088434082181330","authorId":"4088434082181330","name":"Sherminxm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48bc204d5fc6b3e0603c2faf13a5f90","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088434082181330","authorIdStr":"4088434082181330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Woo","listText":"Woo","text":"Woo","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892841187","repostId":"807413879","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":807413879,"gmtCreate":1628049192591,"gmtModify":1631886431293,"author":{"id":"4088434082181330","authorId":"4088434082181330","name":"Sherminxm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48bc204d5fc6b3e0603c2faf13a5f90","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088434082181330","authorIdStr":"4088434082181330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>Woo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/A17U.SI\">$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV TRUST(A17U.SI)$</a>Woo","text":"$ASCENDAS REAL ESTATE INV 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16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p>\n<p>The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p>\n<p>But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p>\n<p>Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p>\n<p>Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p>\n<p>If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p>\n<p>Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p>\n<p>Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p>\n<p>All this has a number of implications:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>\n <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>\n <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>\n <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 16:27 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle '...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}