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5ca945a6
5ca945a6
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2021-11-06
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5ca945a6
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2021-11-05
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U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021<blockquote>美国夏令时将于2021年11月7日星期日结束</blockquote>
Dear Tigers, U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021,at 2:00 a.m. At that time,the regu
U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021<blockquote>美国夏令时将于2021年11月7日星期日结束</blockquote>
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5ca945a6
5ca945a6
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2021-10-03
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2021-10-02
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2021-10-01
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2021-09-30
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2021-09-29
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Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>
Summary Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect
Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>
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2021-09-28
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2021-09-27
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Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>
Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t
Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>
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2021-09-25
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IPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.<blockquote>IPO开盘提醒：Cue Health开盘价为19.2美元，较IPO价格上涨20%。</blockquote>
(Sept 24) Cue Health Inc. opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price. Company & Technology S
IPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.<blockquote>IPO开盘提醒：Cue Health开盘价为19.2美元，较IPO价格上涨20%。</blockquote>
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Beijing time /SGT :22:30 ~ 5:00 the next day</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间：9:30~16:00；北京时间/SGT：22:30~次日5:00</blockquote></p><p> <b>pre-trade</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易前</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. Eastern Time:4:00 ~ 9:30;Beijing time/SGT :17:00 ~ 22:30</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间：4:00~9:30；北京时间/SGT：17:00~22:30</blockquote></p><p> <b>post-trade</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易后</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. Eastern Time:16：00~20：00;Beijing time/SGT:5:00 ~ 9:00</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间：16:00~20:00；北京时间/SGT：5:00~9:00</blockquote></p><p> (Note: Daylight saving time always begins on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November)</p><p><blockquote>（注：夏令时总是从三月的第二个星期日开始，到十一月的第一个星期日结束）</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021<blockquote>美国夏令时将于2021年11月7日星期日结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021<blockquote>美国夏令时将于2021年11月7日星期日结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-05 17:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dear Tigers, U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021,at 2:00 a.m.</p><p><blockquote>亲爱的老虎们，美国夏令时于2021年11月7日周日凌晨2点结束。</blockquote></p><p> At that time,the regular trading period of the US stock market will move toward by one hour, which will become 22:30 p.m.to 5:00 a.m（Beijing Time/SGT）. </p><p><blockquote>届时，美股常规交易时段将提前一小时，即北京时间下午22:30至凌晨5:00。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e441a1a98d5230fc31d6f1652e577bde\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Hours</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易时间</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. Eastern Time:9:30 ~ 16:00; Beijing time /SGT :22:30 ~ 5:00 the next day</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间：9:30~16:00；北京时间/SGT：22:30~次日5:00</blockquote></p><p> <b>pre-trade</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易前</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. Eastern Time:4:00 ~ 9:30;Beijing time/SGT :17:00 ~ 22:30</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间：4:00~9:30；北京时间/SGT：17:00~22:30</blockquote></p><p> <b>post-trade</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易后</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S. Eastern Time:16：00~20：00;Beijing time/SGT:5:00 ~ 9:00</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间：16:00~20:00；北京时间/SGT：5:00~9:00</blockquote></p><p> (Note: Daylight saving time always begins on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November)</p><p><blockquote>（注：夏令时总是从三月的第二个星期日开始，到十一月的第一个星期日结束）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136116425","content_text":"Dear Tigers, U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021,at 2:00 a.m.\nAt that time,the regular trading period of the US stock market will move toward by one hour, which will become 22:30 p.m.to 5:00 a.m（Beijing Time/SGT）. \n\nTrading Hours\nU.S. Eastern Time:9:30 ~ 16:00; Beijing time /SGT :22:30 ~ 5:00 the next day\npre-trade\nU.S. Eastern Time:4:00 ~ 9:30;Beijing time/SGT :17:00 ~ 22:30\npost-trade\nU.S. Eastern Time:16：00~20：00;Beijing time/SGT:5:00 ~ 9:00\n(Note: Daylight saving time always begins on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1035,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867222527,"gmtCreate":1633274796025,"gmtModify":1633274827327,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867222527","repostId":"1145081858","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864469130,"gmtCreate":1633139227070,"gmtModify":1633139227310,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864469130","repostId":"2172696913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":940,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864820042,"gmtCreate":1633090927733,"gmtModify":1633090927963,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864820042","repostId":"2172506059","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1092,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865825302,"gmtCreate":1632968782234,"gmtModify":1632968928887,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865825302","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862509410,"gmtCreate":1632886551714,"gmtModify":1632886551837,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please ","listText":"Like please ","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862509410","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li> <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li> <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i> <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i> <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>– <i>Investopedia</i> Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i> <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i> <ul> <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li> <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近顶峰时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li> <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略会自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"<blockquote>从技术上讲：市场正在“融化”吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 10:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li> <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li> <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li> </ul> Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</li><li>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</li><li>虽然在融化持续期间利用它是至关重要的，但不要过于自满“这次不同了”。</li></ul>是<i>“市场融化？”</i>这是我从我的同事那里收到的问题<i>少废话投资。</i>考虑到投资者认为的持续增长，这是一个很好的问题<i>“没有风险”</i>市场。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p><p><blockquote>当然，我们需要一个准确定义什么是融化。</blockquote></p><p> <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i> <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i> <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>– <i>Investopedia</i> Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p><p><blockquote><i>他说：“熔断是指一项资产或资产类别的投资表现持续且往往出乎意料的改善，部分原因是</i><i><b>不想错过其上涨机会的投资者蜂拥而至，</b></i><i>而不是经济的根本改善。”</i>–<i>投资百科</i>目前，有足够的证据支持市场繁荣的观点。<b><i>如前所述：</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i> <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i> <ul> <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li> <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><i>“在市场周期接近顶峰时，投资者会被潜在的繁荣所席卷。这种繁荣滋生了“合理化”，即“这次不同了”。那么，你如何知道市场目前是繁荣的呢？通过情绪交易者：”</i><i>这种类型的市场活动表明市场已经回到了“热情”阶段。其特征在于：</i><ul><li><b><i>高度乐观</i></b></li><li><b><i>宽松信贷（太宽松，条款宽松）</i></b></li><li><b><i>首次和二次发行热潮</i></b></li><li><b><i>风险股跑赢大盘</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值过高</i></b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p><p><blockquote>然而，虽然人们会期望个人在这样的环境中表现出谨慎，但事实恰恰相反。鉴于美联储正在进行的资产负债表操作，投资者完全相信他们有能力免受经济衰退的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场融化的可视化</b></blockquote></p><p> It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p><p><blockquote>想象某事通常比解释它更容易。<b>自1900年以来，只有两个市场时期符合熔化的条件：1920-1929年和1995-2000年。</b>下图显示了这两个时期的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，估值的大幅上涨也直观地体现了这种融化。这一点至关重要，因为盈利增长速度不足以支撑价格上涨。<b>与往常一样，投资大众相信未来的收益将证明在融化期间价格上涨是合理的。从来都不是那样的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以将前两个时期与当前从2020年3月低点的上涨进行比较。我们再次看到非常相似的价格大幅上涨和估值飙升。正如预期的那样，投资者目前希望未来收益将大幅上涨，足以证明当前价格的合理性。然而，支付高价的理由是美联储持续的资产负债表扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，价格上涨和估值指标略有不同。它显示了当前与长期指数增长趋势的背离。毫不奇怪，在市场期间<i>“融化。”</i>与估值加速相匹配的增长趋势出现了快速背离。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p><p><blockquote>市场的问题<i>“融化”</i>不是融化本身，而是随之而来的一切。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p><p><blockquote><b>熔化导致熔化</b></blockquote></p><p> A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化持续下去是令人兴奋的。在熔断期间，投资者开始合理化原因<i>“这次不一样。”</i>他们开始过度杠杆，试图利用价格的快速上涨，基本面让位于价格动能。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p><p><blockquote>市场融化都是关于<i>“心理学。”</i><b>从历史上看，无论引发忽视风险的催化剂是什么，都很容易在价格和估值的相应飙升中看到。</b>下图显示了相对强度、偏差和估值的长期偏差。上一篇<i>“融化”</i>与目前的进展相比，时期应该很容易发现。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的延期仅与历史上少数罕见的时期相匹配，有几点应该是显而易见的。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li> <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li> </ol> It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b><i>融化的时间可能比逻辑预测的要长。</i></b></li><li><b><i>普遍的心理总是“这次不一样了”。</i></b></li><li><b><i>估值被驳回，以换取动量和前瞻性预期的衡量标准。</i></b></li><li><b><i>投资者为了参与一个看似“输不起”的市场，承担了过多的杠杆和风险。</i></b></li><li><b><i>最后，不可避免的是，“融化”以最糟糕的结果告终。</i></b></li></ol>必须认识到市场正处于<i>“融化，</i>“而且该事件的持续时间是未知的。因此，投资者需要一种策略来参与提前并减轻最终的损失<i>“熔化。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在融化中幸存下来</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p><p><blockquote><b>如上所述，这些都不意味着下一个</b><b><i>“熊市”</i></b><b>正在潜伏。</b>鉴于市场融化是心理作用，它们可以持续更长时间，走得比逻辑预测的更远。需要什么“<i>结束“</i>融化是一种意想不到的外生事件，它将心理从看涨转变为看跌。这就是人们蜂拥退出的时候，价格会迅速下跌。</blockquote></p><p> As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者需要一套指导方针来参与市场上涨。但是，当然，困难的部分是在不可避免地发生调整时保持这些收益。</blockquote></p><p> As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p><p><blockquote>作为客户的投资组合经理，这正是我们必须采取的方法。因此，我提供了我们采用的流程的总体概述。</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li> <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li> <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li> </ol> <b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><i><b>收紧止损水平</b></i><i>每个头寸的当前支撑位。（当市场反转时提供可识别的退出点。）</i></li><li><i><b>对冲投资组合</b></i><i>（非相关资产、空头市场头寸、指数看跌期权）</i></li><li><i><b>获利了结</b></i><i>在已经成为大赢家的头寸中（重新平衡超买或扩展头寸以获取收益，但继续参与上涨。）</i></li><li><i><b>出售落后者</b></i><i>和失败者</i>.<i>（如果某些东西在市场融化时不起作用，那么在广泛下跌时很可能也不会起作用。最好尽早消除风险。）</i></li><li><i><b>筹集现金</b></i><i>并重新平衡投资组合以达到目标权重。（定期重新平衡风险可以在一定程度上减轻隐藏的风险。）</i></li></ol><b>注意，里面没有任何东西说，</b><b><i>“卖掉所有东西，去兑现。”</i></b></blockquote></p><p> There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p><p><blockquote>将会有一段时间来筹集大量现金。一个好的投资组合管理策略会自动确保<i>“止损”</i>当出售开始时，水平被触发，风险减少，现金水平上升。</blockquote></p><p> While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p><p><blockquote>虽然有必要在融化持续期间利用它，但不要过于自满<i>“这次不一样。”</i></blockquote></p><p> It likely isn’t.</p><p><blockquote>很可能不是。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866431835,"gmtCreate":1632795256927,"gmtModify":1632797569359,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866431835","repostId":"1154750014","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866936010,"gmtCreate":1632719992030,"gmtModify":1632798308407,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866936010","repostId":"2170488786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170488786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632685409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170488786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 03:43","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170488786","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t","content":"<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDebt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week<blockquote>国会债务上限辩论、消费者信心：本周需要了解什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 03:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p><p><blockquote><div>投资者本周将密切关注华盛顿特区的事态发展，因为议员们竞相通过立法，以避免政府在本月底关闭，并就提高...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e749e88d2580d292ffc6ae18d03b65","relate_stocks":{"SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170488786","content_text":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, economic data on consumer confidence is also due for release.\nThe Senate is expected to vote Monday on a procedural motion over the legislation passed by the House of Representatives last week. That bill included a plan to temporarily fund the government through early December, and came alongside a measure to raise the government debt ceiling through December 2022.\nThe latter point has been an area of contention for Senate Republicans, who are only narrowly outnumbered by Democratic lawmakers in both chambers and who have threatened to block the bill in its current form.\nSenate Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that Democratic lawmakers should use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling without Republican support. McConnell has, however, supported a short-term government funding bill that excludes a debt ceiling suspension.\n\"If they [the Democrats] want to tax, borrow and spend historic sums of money without our input, they’ll have to raise the debt limit without our help. This is the reality,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last week.\nDemocratic lawmakers, for their part, have called for the move to raise the debt limit be bipartisan to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. could default on its debts as soon as October in absence of congressional action.\n\"The U.S. has always paid its bills on time, but the overwhelming consensus among economists and Treasury officials of both parties is that failing to raise the debt limit would produce widespread economic catastrophe,\" Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned of the consequences of a failure to raise the debt ceiling during his post-FOMC meeting press conference last week.\n\"It's just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due. That's a critically important thing,\" he said. \"The failure to do that is something that could result in severe reactions, severe damage to the economy and to the financial markets ... no one should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.\"\nA dead Elm tree is removed on the West Front of the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nAmid the standoff, the Office of Management and Budget began warning federal agencies last week to prepare for a potential government shutdown. The reminder served as a standard warning one week out from Congress's deadline to reach an agreement to at least temporarily continue funding the government.\nThough leaders of both political parties have agreed that a continuing resolution to avoid the shutdown at the end of the month is needed, the ongoing tension over raising the debt limit has served as a potential roadblock in this effort.\n\"We still expect Congress to avert a partial government shutdown at the start of October. Republicans won’t vote for the current continuing resolution being touted by the Democratic leadership, which also includes a new debt ceiling suspension,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note Friday. \"But we expect a Plan B to emerge next week with the latter stripped out, which Republicans will support.\"\n\"The bigger issue is that there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to raising the debt ceiling by mid-October, which is when estimates suggest the Treasury’s will exhaust the 'extraordinary measures it is currently using to keep the lights on,\" he added.\nInvestors have also grown jittery as the debates wore on, with stocks posting their worst day since May last week amid a confluence of concerns that also included debt concerns with China Evergrande.\nMany strategists, however, have suggested market participants need not be overly concerned about the impacts of a potential government shutdown.\n\"Historically, we've seen that government shutdowns tend to be short-lived,\" Jordan Jackson, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We also know that for those non-essential federal employees, they do get furlough pay as well.\"\n\"If it lasts more than 30 days, it's certainly going to have a bigger impact on the economy. But generally speaking, these shutdowns tend to be short-lived and markets — while they may correct in the short-term — they do sort of continue to grind higher,\" he added. \"I think it's certainly a risk in terms of a short-term mini correction there. But again, with all the liquidity out there, I think any sort of blip in the markets will be short-lived.\"\nHistorical equity performance during and immediately following a government shutdown has also tended to point to a muted market impact.\n\"In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 generated median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution,\" David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist, wrote in a note published on Sept. 21.\n\"One notable exception was the most recent federal shutdown in December 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 2% on the spending authority expiration date,\" he added. \"However, this decline was likely driven primarily by investor concerns about Fed tightening.\"\nKostin also noted that the typical government shutdown since 1980 has only lasted three days before ultimately being resolved. More recent shutdowns have lasted several times longer, however, with the duration of the four most recent federal shutdowns averaging 18 days, Kostin said.\nConsumer confidence\nOn the economic data front, one of the most closely watched new pieces of data will be on consumer confidence.\nThe Conference Board is set to release its September consumer confidence index Tuesday morning. Economists expect the index to tick up only slightly compared to August, with consumers' views on the coronavirus and rising prices stabilizing near the lowest level since February.\nSpecifically, consensus economists are looking for the index to rise to 115.0 in September after dropping to 113.8 in August. During the last monthly report, consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions both eased, and expectations for the next six months out also deteriorated.\n\"Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, due to concerns around the Delta variant and inflation,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note on Friday. \"We think these concerns largely remained in September.\"\nAt the time, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said it was still \"too soon to conclude\" whether decline in consumer confidence would \"result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.\"\nThe latest spending data has also been equivocal. The Commerce Department's latest report showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August after declining in July. However, the categories posting the biggest declines were areas like e-commerce shops and grocery stores, suggesting consumer behavior was shifting back toward stay-in-place trends and away from in-person events like restaurant dining amid the latest wave of the coronavirus.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Durable goods orders, August preliminary (0.6% expected, -0.1% in July); Durable goods excluding transportation, August preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.8% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.1% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.9% in July); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (11.0 expected, 9.0 in July)\nTuesday: Advance goods trade balance, August (-$87.0 billion expected, -$86.4 billion in July); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August preliminary (0.6% in July); Retail inventories, month-over-month, August (0.4% in July); FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, July (1.5% expected, 1.6% in July); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (1.62% expected, 1.77% in June); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (20.1% expected, 19.08% in June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, September (114.2 expected, 113.8 in August); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September (9 in August)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 24 (4.9% during prior month); Pending home sales, month-over-month, August (1.0% expected, -1.8% in July)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended September 25 (320,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 18 (2.845 million during prior week); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.7% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate); Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate); MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)\nFriday: Personal income, August (0.2% expected, 1.1% in July); Personal spending, August (0.7% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, month-over-over, August (0.2% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, year-over-year, August (3.6% expected, 3.6% in July); Markit manufacturing PMI, September final (60.5 in prior estimate); Construction spending, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% in July); University of Michigan sentiment, September final (71.0 expected, 71.0 in prior print); ISM Manufacturing, September (59.5 expected, 59.9 in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) after market close\nTuesday: Micron Technology (MU) after market close.\nWednesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nThursday: CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open; Jefferies (JEF) after market close\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for releas","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1121,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861271672,"gmtCreate":1632506407096,"gmtModify":1632714690520,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please ","listText":"Like please ","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861271672","repostId":"1104085778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104085778","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632498166,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104085778?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-24 23:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"IPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.<blockquote>IPO开盘提醒：Cue Health开盘价为19.2美元，较IPO价格上涨20%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104085778","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 24) Cue Health Inc. opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.\n\nCompany & Technology\nS","content":"<p>(Sept 24) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLTH\">Cue Health Inc.</a> opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月24日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLTH\">提示健康公司。</a>开盘价为19.2美元，较IPO价格上涨20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7270662a08ec3dac176aa52bf5cbd1a\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company & Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司与技术</b></blockquote></p><p> San Diego, California-based Cue was founded to first develop a COVID-19 test kit and integrated information platform for processing and communication.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的Cue成立的目的是首先开发新冠肺炎测试套件和用于处理和通信的集成信息平台。</blockquote></p><p> Management is headed by co-founder, Chairman and CEO Ayub Khattak, who has been with the firm since inception and holds a B.S. in mathematics from UCLA.</p><p><blockquote>管理层由联合创始人、董事长兼首席执行官Ayub Khattak领导，他自公司成立以来一直在公司工作，并拥有学士学位。加州大学洛杉矶分校数学专业。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s primary offerings in its Cue Integrated Care Platform:</p><p><blockquote>该公司在其Cue综合护理平台中的主要产品：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Health monitoring system</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>健康监测系统</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Rader</p><p><blockquote><li>雷达</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cartridge</p><p><blockquote><li>弹壳</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Wand</p><p><blockquote><li>墙</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Data</p><p><blockquote><li>数据</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Delivery apps</p><p><blockquote><li>交付应用程序</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Enterprise dashboard</p><p><blockquote><li>企业仪表板</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Ecosystem integrations</p><p><blockquote><li>生态系统集成</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Cue has received at least $176 million in equity investment from investors including ACME Capital, Cove Investors, Decheng Capital China Life Sciences, Madrone and NVGA I.</p><p><blockquote>Cue已经获得了包括ACME Capital、Cove Investors、德诚资本中国生命科学、Madrone和NVGA I在内的投资者至少1.76亿美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer/User Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户/用户获取</b></blockquote></p><p> The company pursues healthcare provider relationships through its in-house direct sales team focused on healthcare providers, large enterprises and public sector clients.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过其专注于医疗保健提供商、大型企业和公共部门客户的内部直销团队寻求医疗保健提供商关系。</blockquote></p><p> Management expects 2021 customer demand for its COVID-19 test kits to exceed its manufacturing capacity.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预计，2021年客户对其COVID-19检测试剂盒的需求将超过其生产能力。</blockquote></p><p> Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have varied as revenues have increased sharply, as the figures below indicate:</p><p><blockquote>销售及营销开支佔总收入的百分比随着收入急剧增加而变化，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Expenses vs. Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>费用与收入</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Percentage</p><p><blockquote><td>百分比</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>3.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>1.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, was 100.5x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销效率率（定义为每美元销售和营销支出产生多少美元的额外新收入）在最近一个报告期内为100.5倍，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Efficiency Rate</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>效率率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Multiple</p><p><blockquote><td>多个的</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>100.5</p><p><blockquote><td>100.5</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>22.9</p><p><blockquote><td>22.9</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <b>Market & Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场与竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> According to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Grand View Research, the global market for COVID-19 detection kits was an estimated $3.28 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $5 billion by 2027.</p><p><blockquote>根据Grand View Research的2020年市场研究报告，2020年新冠肺炎检测试剂盒的全球市场估计为32.8亿美元，预计到2027年将达到50亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This represents a forecast CAGR of 5.05% from 2021 to 2027.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着2021年至2027年的预测复合年增长率为5.05%。</blockquote></p><p> The main drivers for this expected growth are a strong growth in demand for testing services of all types on a global basis.</p><p><blockquote>这一预期增长的主要驱动力是全球对所有类型测试服务需求的强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> Also, below is a chart showing the market share of use of detection kits by end-user type:</p><p><blockquote>此外，下图显示了按最终用户类型划分的检测试剂盒使用的市场份额：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7fc60b336bae7685e08132f8176b57\" tg-width=\"1158\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（资料来源）</blockquote></p><p> Major competitive or other industry participants include:</p><p><blockquote>主要竞争对手或其他行业参与者包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Abbott Laboratories(NYSE:ABT)</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>雅培实验室（纽约证券交易所代码：ABT）</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Becton, Dickinson(NYSE:BDX)</p><p><blockquote><li>迪金森贝克顿（纽约证券交易所代码：BDX）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>bioMerieux(OTCPK:BMXMF)</p><p><blockquote><li>生物梅里埃（OTCPK：BMXMF）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Bio-Rad Laboratories(NYSE:BIO)</p><p><blockquote><li>Bio-Rad实验室（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BIO）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Danaher(NYSE:DHR)</p><p><blockquote><li>丹纳赫（纽约证券交易所代码：DHR）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Ellume Limited</p><p><blockquote><li>Ellume有限公司</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Everly Health</p><p><blockquote><li>艾弗利健康</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)(OTCQX:RHHBF)</p><p><blockquote><li>罗氏(OTCQX：RHHBY)(OTCQX：RHHBF)</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Fluidigm(NASDAQ:FLDM)</p><p><blockquote><li>Fluidigm（纳斯达克：FLDM）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)</p><p><blockquote><li>GenMark Diagnostics（纳斯达克：GNMK）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Others</p><p><blockquote><li>其他</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p><p><blockquote>Cue近期财务业绩可总结如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sharply growing top line revenue</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收急剧增长</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Increasing gross profit and variable gross margin</p><p><blockquote><li>增加毛利及可变毛利率</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>A swing to operating profit and net income</p><p><blockquote><li>营业利润和净利润的波动</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Variable cash flow from operations</p><p><blockquote><li>经营活动产生的可变现金流量</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p><p><blockquote>以下是来自公司注册声明的相关财务业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <colgroup></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Total Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>收入总额</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Total Revenue</p><p><blockquote><td>收入总额</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>% Variance vs. Prior</p><p><blockquote><td>与既往相比的%差异</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 201,922,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$201,922,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3971.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>3971.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 22,953,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$22,953,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>246.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>246.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 6,626,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$6,626,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Gross Profit (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>毛利（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Gross Profit (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>毛利（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>% Variance vs. Prior</p><p><blockquote><td>与既往差异%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 116,745,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$116,745,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>2253.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>2253.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 8,002,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$8,002,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>20.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 6,626,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$6,626,000</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Gross Margin</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>毛利率</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Gross Margin</p><p><blockquote><td>毛利率</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>57.82%</p><p><blockquote><td>57.82%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>34.86%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.86%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>100.00%</p><p><blockquote><td>100.00%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Operating Profit (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>经营溢利（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Operating Profit (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>经营溢利（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Operating Margin</p><p><blockquote><td>营业利润率</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 79,463,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$79,463,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (45,126,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(45,126,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-196.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-196.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (20,767,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(20,767,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-313.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>-313.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Net Income (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>净利润（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Net Income (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>净利润（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 32,840,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$32,840,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (47,352,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(47,352,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (20,606,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(20,606,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Cash Flow From Operations</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>经营所得现金流量</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Cash Flow From Operations</p><p><blockquote><td>经营所得现金流量</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (37,812,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(37,812,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 92,655,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$92,655,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (12,996,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(12,996,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> As of June 30, 2021, Cue had $246.3 million in cash and $516.3 million in total liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，Cue拥有2.463亿美元现金，总负债为5.163亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($60 million).</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月内，自由现金流为负（6000万美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:</p><p><blockquote>下表为本公司的相关资本化及估值数字：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <colgroup></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Measure [TTM]</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>测量[TTM]</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Amount</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>数量</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Market Capitalization at IPO</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>IPO时的市值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$2,299,981,232</p><p><blockquote><td>$2,299,981,232</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Enterprise Value</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>企业价值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$1,874,455,232</p><p><blockquote><td>$1,874,455,232</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Price / Sales</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>价格/销售额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10.46</p><p><blockquote><td>10.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>EV / Revenue</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>EV/收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.52</p><p><blockquote><td>8.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>EV / EBITDA</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>EV/EBITDA</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>35.46</p><p><blockquote><td>35.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Earnings Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股盈利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$0.03</p><p><blockquote><td>$0.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Float To Outstanding Shares Ratio</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>流通股与流通股比率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.70%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.70%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Proposed IPO Midpoint Price per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>建议IPO每股中点价格</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$16.00</p><p><blockquote><td>$16.00</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Net Free Cash Flow</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>净自由现金流</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-$59,920,000</p><p><blockquote><td>-$59,920,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Free Cash Flow Yield Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流收益率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-2.61%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2.61%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue Growth Rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>收入增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3971.01%</p><p><blockquote><td>3971.01%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> As a reference, a potential partial and imperfect public comparable to Cue would be Bio-Rad (BIO); below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，与Cue相当的潜在部分和不完美的公共将是Bio-Rad（BIO）；以下是其主要估值指标的比较：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <colgroup></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>公制</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Bio-Rad (BIO)</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>Bio-Rad（生物）</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Cue Health (HLTH)</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>提示健康（HLTH）</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Variance</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>差异</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Price / Sales</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>价格/销售额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.15</p><p><blockquote><td>8.15</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10.46</p><p><blockquote><td>10.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>28.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>EV / Revenue</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>EV/收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>7.82</p><p><blockquote><td>7.82</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.52</p><p><blockquote><td>8.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>EV / EBITDA</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>EV/EBITDA</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>31.66</p><p><blockquote><td>31.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>35.46</p><p><blockquote><td>35.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>12.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Earnings Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股盈利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$134.05</p><p><blockquote><td>$134.05</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$0.03</p><p><blockquote><td>$0.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-100.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-100.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue Growth Rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>收入增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>25.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3971.01%</p><p><blockquote><td>3971.01%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>15436.03%</p><p><blockquote><td>15436.03%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>(Glossary Of Terms)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>（术语表）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <b>Commentary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评论</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue is seeking public investment capital to further scale its commercialization operations as well as continue its R & D efforts.</p><p><blockquote>Cue正在寻求公共投资资本，以进一步扩大其商业化业务并继续其研发工作。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s financials show sharply growing top line revenue, strong growth in gross profit and variable gross margin, a swing to operating profit and net income and highly fluctuating cash flow from or use in operations</p><p><blockquote>该公司的财务数据显示，营收大幅增长，毛利润和可变毛利率强劲增长，营业利润和净利润出现波动，经营活动产生或使用的现金流高度波动</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was an eye-popping negative ($60 million).</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月的自由现金流是令人瞠目结舌的负值（6000万美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased dramatically; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate was an extremely high 100.5x in the most recent reporting period.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销费用占总收入的百分比随着收入的急剧增加而波动；在最近的报告期内，其销售和营销效率高达100.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity for COVID-19 and related test kit platforms is large and will likely grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years as countries around the world seek to bolster their testing capabilities in the wake of the recent global pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎和相关检测试剂盒平台的市场机会很大，并且在未来几年可能会以高增长率增长，因为世界各国在最近的全球疫情之后寻求增强其检测能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Goldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 39.9% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p><p><blockquote>高盛是首席承销商，该公司在过去12个月内牵头的IPO自IPO以来的平均回报率为39.9%。这是期内所有主要承销商的中等表现。</blockquote></p><p> The primary risk to the firm now is that it is essentially a one-product company, so its revenue base is heavily concentrated.</p><p><blockquote>该公司现在面临的主要风险是，它本质上是一家单一产品公司，因此其收入基础高度集中。</blockquote></p><p> As for valuation, compared to partial competitor Bio-Rad Laboratories, the IPO is reasonably valued on a revenue multiple, although Cue is growing at a much higher rate of growth from a much lower revenue base, so the comparison is strained at best.</p><p><blockquote>至于估值，与部分竞争对手Bio-Rad Laboratories相比，IPO的收入倍数估值合理，尽管Cue在收入基础低得多的情况下以高得多的增长率增长，因此这种比较充其量是紧张的。</blockquote></p><p> Given Cue’s growth trajectory, profitability and reasonable IPO valuation, the IPO is worth consideration.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Cue的增长轨迹、盈利能力和合理的IPO估值，此次IPO值得考虑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.<blockquote>IPO开盘提醒：Cue Health开盘价为19.2美元，较IPO价格上涨20%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.<blockquote>IPO开盘提醒：Cue Health开盘价为19.2美元，较IPO价格上涨20%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-24 23:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 24) <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLTH\">Cue Health Inc.</a> opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月24日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLTH\">提示健康公司。</a>开盘价为19.2美元，较IPO价格上涨20%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7270662a08ec3dac176aa52bf5cbd1a\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Company & Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司与技术</b></blockquote></p><p> San Diego, California-based Cue was founded to first develop a COVID-19 test kit and integrated information platform for processing and communication.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的Cue成立的目的是首先开发新冠肺炎测试套件和用于处理和通信的集成信息平台。</blockquote></p><p> Management is headed by co-founder, Chairman and CEO Ayub Khattak, who has been with the firm since inception and holds a B.S. in mathematics from UCLA.</p><p><blockquote>管理层由联合创始人、董事长兼首席执行官Ayub Khattak领导，他自公司成立以来一直在公司工作，并拥有学士学位。加州大学洛杉矶分校数学专业。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s primary offerings in its Cue Integrated Care Platform:</p><p><blockquote>该公司在其Cue综合护理平台中的主要产品：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Health monitoring system</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>健康监测系统</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Rader</p><p><blockquote><li>雷达</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Cartridge</p><p><blockquote><li>弹壳</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Wand</p><p><blockquote><li>墙</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Data</p><p><blockquote><li>数据</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Delivery apps</p><p><blockquote><li>交付应用程序</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Enterprise dashboard</p><p><blockquote><li>企业仪表板</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Ecosystem integrations</p><p><blockquote><li>生态系统集成</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Cue has received at least $176 million in equity investment from investors including ACME Capital, Cove Investors, Decheng Capital China Life Sciences, Madrone and NVGA I.</p><p><blockquote>Cue已经获得了包括ACME Capital、Cove Investors、德诚资本中国生命科学、Madrone和NVGA I在内的投资者至少1.76亿美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer/User Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户/用户获取</b></blockquote></p><p> The company pursues healthcare provider relationships through its in-house direct sales team focused on healthcare providers, large enterprises and public sector clients.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过其专注于医疗保健提供商、大型企业和公共部门客户的内部直销团队寻求医疗保健提供商关系。</blockquote></p><p> Management expects 2021 customer demand for its COVID-19 test kits to exceed its manufacturing capacity.</p><p><blockquote>管理层预计，2021年客户对其COVID-19检测试剂盒的需求将超过其生产能力。</blockquote></p><p> Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have varied as revenues have increased sharply, as the figures below indicate:</p><p><blockquote>销售及营销开支佔总收入的百分比随着收入急剧增加而变化，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Expenses vs. Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>费用与收入</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Percentage</p><p><blockquote><td>百分比</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>3.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>1.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> The Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, was 100.5x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销效率率（定义为每美元销售和营销支出产生多少美元的额外新收入）在最近一个报告期内为100.5倍，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Efficiency Rate</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>效率率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Multiple</p><p><blockquote><td>多个的</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>100.5</p><p><blockquote><td>100.5</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>22.9</p><p><blockquote><td>22.9</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <b>Market & Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场与竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> According to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Grand View Research, the global market for COVID-19 detection kits was an estimated $3.28 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $5 billion by 2027.</p><p><blockquote>根据Grand View Research的2020年市场研究报告，2020年新冠肺炎检测试剂盒的全球市场估计为32.8亿美元，预计到2027年将达到50亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This represents a forecast CAGR of 5.05% from 2021 to 2027.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着2021年至2027年的预测复合年增长率为5.05%。</blockquote></p><p> The main drivers for this expected growth are a strong growth in demand for testing services of all types on a global basis.</p><p><blockquote>这一预期增长的主要驱动力是全球对所有类型测试服务需求的强劲增长。</blockquote></p><p> Also, below is a chart showing the market share of use of detection kits by end-user type:</p><p><blockquote>此外，下图显示了按最终用户类型划分的检测试剂盒使用的市场份额：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7fc60b336bae7685e08132f8176b57\" tg-width=\"1158\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（资料来源）</blockquote></p><p> Major competitive or other industry participants include:</p><p><blockquote>主要竞争对手或其他行业参与者包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Abbott Laboratories(NYSE:ABT)</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>雅培实验室（纽约证券交易所代码：ABT）</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Becton, Dickinson(NYSE:BDX)</p><p><blockquote><li>迪金森贝克顿（纽约证券交易所代码：BDX）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>bioMerieux(OTCPK:BMXMF)</p><p><blockquote><li>生物梅里埃（OTCPK：BMXMF）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Bio-Rad Laboratories(NYSE:BIO)</p><p><blockquote><li>Bio-Rad实验室（纽约证券交易所股票代码：BIO）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Danaher(NYSE:DHR)</p><p><blockquote><li>丹纳赫（纽约证券交易所代码：DHR）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Ellume Limited</p><p><blockquote><li>Ellume有限公司</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Everly Health</p><p><blockquote><li>艾弗利健康</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)(OTCQX:RHHBF)</p><p><blockquote><li>罗氏(OTCQX：RHHBY)(OTCQX：RHHBF)</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Fluidigm(NASDAQ:FLDM)</p><p><blockquote><li>Fluidigm（纳斯达克：FLDM）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)</p><p><blockquote><li>GenMark Diagnostics（纳斯达克：GNMK）</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Others</p><p><blockquote><li>其他</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p><p><blockquote>Cue近期财务业绩可总结如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sharply growing top line revenue</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收急剧增长</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Increasing gross profit and variable gross margin</p><p><blockquote><li>增加毛利及可变毛利率</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>A swing to operating profit and net income</p><p><blockquote><li>营业利润和净利润的波动</li></blockquote></p><p></li> <li>Variable cash flow from operations</p><p><blockquote><li>经营活动产生的可变现金流量</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p><p><blockquote>以下是来自公司注册声明的相关财务业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <colgroup></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Total Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>收入总额</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Total Revenue</p><p><blockquote><td>收入总额</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>% Variance vs. Prior</p><p><blockquote><td>与既往相比的%差异</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 201,922,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$201,922,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3971.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>3971.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 22,953,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$22,953,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>246.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>246.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 6,626,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$6,626,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Gross Profit (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>毛利（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Gross Profit (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>毛利（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>% Variance vs. Prior</p><p><blockquote><td>与既往差异%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 116,745,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$116,745,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>2253.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>2253.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 8,002,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$8,002,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>20.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 6,626,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$6,626,000</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Gross Margin</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>毛利率</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Gross Margin</p><p><blockquote><td>毛利率</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>57.82%</p><p><blockquote><td>57.82%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>34.86%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.86%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>100.00%</p><p><blockquote><td>100.00%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Operating Profit (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>经营溢利（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Operating Profit (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>经营溢利（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Operating Margin</p><p><blockquote><td>营业利润率</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 79,463,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$79,463,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (45,126,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(45,126,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-196.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-196.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (20,767,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(20,767,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-313.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>-313.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Net Income (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>净利润（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Net Income (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>净利润（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 32,840,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$32,840,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (47,352,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(47,352,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (20,606,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(20,606,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr></tr> <tr> <td><b>Cash Flow From Operations</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>经营所得现金流量</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>Cash Flow From Operations</p><p><blockquote><td>经营所得现金流量</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日止</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (37,812,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(37,812,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ 92,655,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$92,655,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$ (12,996,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(12,996,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> As of June 30, 2021, Cue had $246.3 million in cash and $516.3 million in total liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，Cue拥有2.463亿美元现金，总负债为5.163亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($60 million).</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月内，自由现金流为负（6000万美元）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:</p><p><blockquote>下表为本公司的相关资本化及估值数字：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <colgroup></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Measure [TTM]</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>测量[TTM]</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Amount</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>数量</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Market Capitalization at IPO</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>IPO时的市值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$2,299,981,232</p><p><blockquote><td>$2,299,981,232</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Enterprise Value</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>企业价值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$1,874,455,232</p><p><blockquote><td>$1,874,455,232</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Price / Sales</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>价格/销售额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10.46</p><p><blockquote><td>10.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>EV / Revenue</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>EV/收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.52</p><p><blockquote><td>8.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>EV / EBITDA</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>EV/EBITDA</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>35.46</p><p><blockquote><td>35.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Earnings Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股盈利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$0.03</p><p><blockquote><td>$0.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Float To Outstanding Shares Ratio</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>流通股与流通股比率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.70%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.70%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Proposed IPO Midpoint Price per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>建议IPO每股中点价格</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$16.00</p><p><blockquote><td>$16.00</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Net Free Cash Flow</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>净自由现金流</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-$59,920,000</p><p><blockquote><td>-$59,920,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Free Cash Flow Yield Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流收益率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-2.61%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2.61%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue Growth Rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>收入增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3971.01%</p><p><blockquote><td>3971.01%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> As a reference, a potential partial and imperfect public comparable to Cue would be Bio-Rad (BIO); below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，与Cue相当的潜在部分和不完美的公共将是Bio-Rad（BIO）；以下是其主要估值指标的比较：</blockquote></p><p> <table> <colgroup></colgroup> <tbody> <tr> <td><b>Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>公制</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Bio-Rad (BIO)</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>Bio-Rad（生物）</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Cue Health (HLTH)</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>提示健康（HLTH）</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td><b>Variance</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>差异</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Price / Sales</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>价格/销售额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.15</p><p><blockquote><td>8.15</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>10.46</p><p><blockquote><td>10.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>28.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>EV / Revenue</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>EV/收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>7.82</p><p><blockquote><td>7.82</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>8.52</p><p><blockquote><td>8.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>EV / EBITDA</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>EV/EBITDA</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>31.66</p><p><blockquote><td>31.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>35.46</p><p><blockquote><td>35.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>12.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Earnings Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股盈利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$134.05</p><p><blockquote><td>$134.05</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>$0.03</p><p><blockquote><td>$0.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>-100.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-100.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>Revenue Growth Rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>收入增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>25.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>3971.01%</p><p><blockquote><td>3971.01%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> <td>15436.03%</p><p><blockquote><td>15436.03%</td></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> <tr> <td>(Glossary Of Terms)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>（术语表）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <b>Commentary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评论</b></blockquote></p><p> Cue is seeking public investment capital to further scale its commercialization operations as well as continue its R & D efforts.</p><p><blockquote>Cue正在寻求公共投资资本，以进一步扩大其商业化业务并继续其研发工作。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s financials show sharply growing top line revenue, strong growth in gross profit and variable gross margin, a swing to operating profit and net income and highly fluctuating cash flow from or use in operations</p><p><blockquote>该公司的财务数据显示，营收大幅增长，毛利润和可变毛利率强劲增长，营业利润和净利润出现波动，经营活动产生或使用的现金流高度波动</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was an eye-popping negative ($60 million).</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月的自由现金流是令人瞠目结舌的负值（6000万美元）。</blockquote></p><p> Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased dramatically; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate was an extremely high 100.5x in the most recent reporting period.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销费用占总收入的百分比随着收入的急剧增加而波动；在最近的报告期内，其销售和营销效率高达100.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity for COVID-19 and related test kit platforms is large and will likely grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years as countries around the world seek to bolster their testing capabilities in the wake of the recent global pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>新冠肺炎和相关检测试剂盒平台的市场机会很大，并且在未来几年可能会以高增长率增长，因为世界各国在最近的全球疫情之后寻求增强其检测能力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Goldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 39.9% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p><p><blockquote>高盛是首席承销商，该公司在过去12个月内牵头的IPO自IPO以来的平均回报率为39.9%。这是期内所有主要承销商的中等表现。</blockquote></p><p> The primary risk to the firm now is that it is essentially a one-product company, so its revenue base is heavily concentrated.</p><p><blockquote>该公司现在面临的主要风险是，它本质上是一家单一产品公司，因此其收入基础高度集中。</blockquote></p><p> As for valuation, compared to partial competitor Bio-Rad Laboratories, the IPO is reasonably valued on a revenue multiple, although Cue is growing at a much higher rate of growth from a much lower revenue base, so the comparison is strained at best.</p><p><blockquote>至于估值，与部分竞争对手Bio-Rad Laboratories相比，IPO的收入倍数估值合理，尽管Cue在收入基础低得多的情况下以高得多的增长率增长，因此这种比较充其量是紧张的。</blockquote></p><p> Given Cue’s growth trajectory, profitability and reasonable IPO valuation, the IPO is worth consideration.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Cue的增长轨迹、盈利能力和合理的IPO估值，此次IPO值得考虑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HLTH":"Cue Health Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104085778","content_text":"(Sept 24) Cue Health Inc. opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.\n\nCompany & Technology\nSan Diego, California-based Cue was founded to first develop a COVID-19 test kit and integrated information platform for processing and communication.\nManagement is headed by co-founder, Chairman and CEO Ayub Khattak, who has been with the firm since inception and holds a B.S. in mathematics from UCLA.\nThe company’s primary offerings in its Cue Integrated Care Platform:\n\nHealth monitoring system\nRader\nCartridge\nWand\nData\nDelivery apps\nEnterprise dashboard\nEcosystem integrations\n\nCue has received at least $176 million in equity investment from investors including ACME Capital, Cove Investors, Decheng Capital China Life Sciences, Madrone and NVGA I.\nCustomer/User Acquisition\nThe company pursues healthcare provider relationships through its in-house direct sales team focused on healthcare providers, large enterprises and public sector clients.\nManagement expects 2021 customer demand for its COVID-19 test kits to exceed its manufacturing capacity.\nSales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have varied as revenues have increased sharply, as the figures below indicate:\n\n\n\nSales and Marketing\nExpenses vs. Revenue\n\n\nPeriod\nPercentage\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n1.0%\n\n\n2020\n3.1%\n\n\n2019\n1.3%\n\n\n\nThe Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, was 100.5x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:\n\n\n\nSales and Marketing\nEfficiency Rate\n\n\nPeriod\nMultiple\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n100.5\n\n\n2020\n22.9\n\n\n\nMarket & Competition\nAccording to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Grand View Research, the global market for COVID-19 detection kits was an estimated $3.28 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $5 billion by 2027.\nThis represents a forecast CAGR of 5.05% from 2021 to 2027.\nThe main drivers for this expected growth are a strong growth in demand for testing services of all types on a global basis.\nAlso, below is a chart showing the market share of use of detection kits by end-user type:\n\n(Source)\nMajor competitive or other industry participants include:\n\nAbbott Laboratories(NYSE:ABT)\nBecton, Dickinson(NYSE:BDX)\nbioMerieux(OTCPK:BMXMF)\nBio-Rad Laboratories(NYSE:BIO)\nDanaher(NYSE:DHR)\nEllume Limited\nEverly Health\nRoche(OTCQX:RHHBY)(OTCQX:RHHBF)\nFluidigm(NASDAQ:FLDM)\nGenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)\nOthers\n\nFinancial Performance\nCue’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:\n\nSharply growing top line revenue\nIncreasing gross profit and variable gross margin\nA swing to operating profit and net income\nVariable cash flow from operations\n\nBelow are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:\n\n\n\n\nTotal Revenue\n\n\nPeriod\nTotal Revenue\n% Variance vs. Prior\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 201,922,000\n3971.0%\n\n\n2020\n$ 22,953,000\n246.4%\n\n\n2019\n$ 6,626,000\n\n\n\nGross Profit (Loss)\n\n\nPeriod\nGross Profit (Loss)\n% Variance vs. Prior\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 116,745,000\n2253.7%\n\n\n2020\n$ 8,002,000\n20.8%\n\n\n2019\n$ 6,626,000\n\n\n\nGross Margin\n\n\nPeriod\nGross Margin\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n57.82%\n\n\n2020\n34.86%\n\n\n2019\n100.00%\n\n\n\nOperating Profit (Loss)\n\n\nPeriod\nOperating Profit (Loss)\nOperating Margin\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 79,463,000\n39.4%\n\n\n2020\n$ (45,126,000)\n-196.6%\n\n\n2019\n$ (20,767,000)\n-313.4%\n\n\n\nNet Income (Loss)\n\n\nPeriod\nNet Income (Loss)\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 32,840,000\n\n\n2020\n$ (47,352,000)\n\n\n2019\n$ (20,606,000)\n\n\n\nCash Flow From Operations\n\n\nPeriod\nCash Flow From Operations\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ (37,812,000)\n\n\n2020\n$ 92,655,000\n\n\n2019\n$ (12,996,000)\n\n\n\nAs of June 30, 2021, Cue had $246.3 million in cash and $516.3 million in total liabilities.\nFree cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($60 million).\nValuation Metrics\nBelow is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:\n\n\n\n\nMeasure [TTM]\nAmount\n\n\nMarket Capitalization at IPO\n$2,299,981,232\n\n\nEnterprise Value\n$1,874,455,232\n\n\nPrice / Sales\n10.46\n\n\nEV / Revenue\n8.52\n\n\nEV / EBITDA\n35.46\n\n\nEarnings Per Share\n$0.03\n\n\nFloat To Outstanding Shares Ratio\n8.70%\n\n\nProposed IPO Midpoint Price per Share\n$16.00\n\n\nNet Free Cash Flow\n-$59,920,000\n\n\nFree Cash Flow Yield Per Share\n-2.61%\n\n\nRevenue Growth Rate\n3971.01%\n\n\n\nAs a reference, a potential partial and imperfect public comparable to Cue would be Bio-Rad (BIO); below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nBio-Rad (BIO)\nCue Health (HLTH)\nVariance\n\n\nPrice / Sales\n8.15\n10.46\n28.3%\n\n\nEV / Revenue\n7.82\n8.52\n9.0%\n\n\nEV / EBITDA\n31.66\n35.46\n12.0%\n\n\nEarnings Per Share\n$134.05\n$0.03\n-100.0%\n\n\nRevenue Growth Rate\n25.6%\n3971.01%\n15436.03%\n\n\n(Glossary Of Terms)\n\n\n\nCommentary\nCue is seeking public investment capital to further scale its commercialization operations as well as continue its R & D efforts.\nThe company’s financials show sharply growing top line revenue, strong growth in gross profit and variable gross margin, a swing to operating profit and net income and highly fluctuating cash flow from or use in operations\nFree cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was an eye-popping negative ($60 million).\nSales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased dramatically; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate was an extremely high 100.5x in the most recent reporting period.\nThe market opportunity for COVID-19 and related test kit platforms is large and will likely grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years as countries around the world seek to bolster their testing capabilities in the wake of the recent global pandemic.\nGoldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 39.9% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.\nThe primary risk to the firm now is that it is essentially a one-product company, so its revenue base is heavily concentrated.\nAs for valuation, compared to partial competitor Bio-Rad Laboratories, the IPO is reasonably valued on a revenue multiple, although Cue is growing at a much higher rate of growth from a much lower revenue base, so the comparison is strained at best.\nGiven Cue’s growth trajectory, profitability and reasonable IPO valuation, the IPO is worth consideration.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HLTH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1407,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}