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- 5ca945a65ca945a6
  ·2021-11-06
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- 5ca945a65ca945a6
  ·2021-11-05
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  U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021
  Dear Tigers, U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021,at 2:00 a.m. At that time,the regu
  U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021
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- 5ca945a65ca945a6
  ·2021-10-03
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  ·2021-10-02
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  ·2021-10-01
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- 5ca945a65ca945a6
  ·2021-09-30
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- 5ca945a65ca945a6
  ·2021-09-29
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  Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"
  Summary Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect
  Technically Speaking: Is The Market "Melting-Up?"
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  ·2021-09-28
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- 5ca945a65ca945a6
  ·2021-09-27
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  Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week
  Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t
  Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week
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- 5ca945a65ca945a6
  ·2021-09-25
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  IPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.
  (Sept 24) Cue Health Inc. opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price. Company & Technology S
  IPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.
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2:00&nbsp;a.m.</p>\n<p>At that time,the regular trading period of the US stock market will move toward by one hour, which will become 22:30 p.m.to 5:00 a.m（Beijing Time/SGT）. </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e441a1a98d5230fc31d6f1652e577bde\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Trading Hours</b></p>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;Eastern Time:9:30 ~ 16:00; Beijing time /SGT :22:30 ~&nbsp;5:00 the next day</p>\n<p><b>pre-trade</b></p>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;Eastern Time:4:00 ~ 9:30;Beijing time/SGT :17:00&nbsp;~&nbsp;22:30</p>\n<p><b>post-trade</b></p>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;Eastern Time:16：00~20：00;Beijing time/SGT:5:00&nbsp;~&nbsp;9:00</p>\n<p>(Note: Daylight saving time always begins on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-05 17:21</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Dear Tigers, U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021,at 2:00&nbsp;a.m.</p>\n<p>At that time,the regular trading period of the US stock market will move toward by one hour, which will become 22:30 p.m.to 5:00 a.m（Beijing Time/SGT）. </p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e441a1a98d5230fc31d6f1652e577bde\" tg-width=\"674\" tg-height=\"365\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Trading Hours</b></p>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;Eastern Time:9:30 ~ 16:00; Beijing time /SGT :22:30 ~&nbsp;5:00 the next day</p>\n<p><b>pre-trade</b></p>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;Eastern Time:4:00 ~ 9:30;Beijing time/SGT :17:00&nbsp;~&nbsp;22:30</p>\n<p><b>post-trade</b></p>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;Eastern Time:16：00~20：00;Beijing time/SGT:5:00&nbsp;~&nbsp;9:00</p>\n<p>(Note: Daylight saving time always begins on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136116425","content_text":"Dear Tigers, U.S. Daylight Saving Time Ends on Sunday, Nov.7 2021,at 2:00 a.m.\nAt that time,the regular trading period of the US stock market will move toward by one hour, which will become 22:30 p.m.to 5:00 a.m（Beijing Time/SGT）. \n\nTrading Hours\nU.S. Eastern Time:9:30 ~ 16:00; Beijing time /SGT :22:30 ~ 5:00 the next day\npre-trade\nU.S. Eastern Time:4:00 ~ 9:30;Beijing time/SGT :17:00 ~ 22:30\npost-trade\nU.S. Eastern Time:16：00~20：00;Beijing time/SGT:5:00 ~ 9:00\n(Note: Daylight saving time always begins on the second Sunday in March and ends on the first Sunday in November)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867222527,"gmtCreate":1633274796025,"gmtModify":1633274827327,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867222527","repostId":"1145081858","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864469130,"gmtCreate":1633139227070,"gmtModify":1633139227310,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864469130","repostId":"2172696913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864820042,"gmtCreate":1633090927733,"gmtModify":1633090927963,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864820042","repostId":"2172506059","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865825302,"gmtCreate":1632968782234,"gmtModify":1632968928887,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865825302","repostId":"1104172212","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862509410,"gmtCreate":1632886551714,"gmtModify":1632886551837,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862509410","repostId":"1198528044","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198528044","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632882697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198528044?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 10:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198528044","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protect","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</li>\n <li>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</li>\n <li>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Is the<i>“market melting-up?”</i>Such was the question I received from my colleague at<i>Cut The Crap Investing.</i>It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a<i>“no risk”</i>market.</p>\n<p>Of course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly</i>\n <i><b>by a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,</b></i>\n <i>rather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“</i>–\n <i>Investopedia</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Currently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.<b><i>As noted previously:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’</i>\n</blockquote>\n<ul>\n <li><b><i>High optimism</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Easy credit (too easy, with loose terms)</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>A rush of initial and secondary offerings</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Risky stocks outperforming</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Stretched valuations</i></b></li>\n</ul>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff8de3a84084162ca86b415584bbf793\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.</p>\n<p><b>A Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up</b></p>\n<p>It is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.<b>Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.</b>The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a218c7efe2ebd874d05c9ff7dd564436\" tg-width=\"797\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f193c9c32d55747bf7ff511c2f9fd53\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.<b>As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c69e418d5a19d6fd03b305ab111e3be3\" tg-width=\"794\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af03d3bbd071b8edfdf3a19e2c7b0bcd\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"437\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>We can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3562aea27b24ad4921d0f5cd497e072\" tg-width=\"804\" tg-height=\"444\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market<i>“melt-up,”</i>there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1419cf4b2afdcdc0f61e0cad862f498d\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The problem with market<i>“melt-ups”</i>is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.</p>\n<p><b>Melting-Up Leads To Melting-Down</b></p>\n<p>A market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why<i>“this time is different.”</i>They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.</p>\n<p>Market melt-ups are all about<i>“psychology.”</i><b>Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.</b>The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous<i>‘melt-up”</i>periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc04cb25c0199dd17475a551a5dd7ec1\" tg-width=\"869\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Given that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b><i>Melt-ups can longer than logic would predict.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>The prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Valuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Investors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.</i></b></li>\n <li><b><i>Lastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.</i></b></li>\n</ol>\n<p>It is essential to recognize the markets are in a<i>“melt-up,</i>” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual<i>“melting-down.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Surviving The Melt-Up</b></p>\n<p><b>As noted, none of this means the next</b><b><i>“bear market”</i></b><b>is lurking.</b>Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “<i>end”</i>a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.</p>\n<p>As such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.</p>\n<p>As portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><i><b>Tighten up stop-loss levels</b></i><i>to current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Hedge portfolios</b></i><i>against major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Take profits</b></i><i>in positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Sell laggards</b></i><i>and losers</i>.<i>(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)</i></li>\n <li><i><b>Raise cash</b></i><i>and rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)</i></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Notice, nothing in there says,</b><b><i>“sell everything and go to cash.”</i></b></p>\n<p>There will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that<i>“stop-loss”</i>levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.</p>\n<p>While it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent<i>“this time is different.”</i></p>\n<p>It likely isn’t.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Technically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTechnically Speaking: Is The Market \"Melting-Up?\"\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-29 10:31 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457469-technically-speaking-is-the-market-melting-up","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198528044","content_text":"Summary\n\nGiven the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nAs is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent “this time is different”.\n\nIs the“market melting-up?”Such was the question I received from my colleague atCut The Crap Investing.It is an excellent question given the relentless increase in what investors believe is a“no risk”market.\nOf course, we need a definition of precisely what constitutes a melt-up.\n\n“A melt-up is a sustained and often unexpected improvement in the investment performance of an asset or asset class, driven partly\nby a stampede of investors who don’t want to miss out on its rise,\nrather than by fundamental improvements in the economy.“–\n Investopedia\n\nCurrently, there is sufficient evidence to support the idea of an exuberant market.As noted previously:\n\n“Near peaks of market cycles, investors become swept up by the underlying exuberance. That exuberance breeds the “rationalization” that “this time is different.” So how do you know the market is exuberant currently? Via Sentiment Trader:”\n\n\n‘This type of market activity is an indication that markets have returned their ‘enthusiasm’ stage. Such is characterized by:’\n\n\nHigh optimism\nEasy credit (too easy, with loose terms)\nA rush of initial and secondary offerings\nRisky stocks outperforming\nStretched valuations\n\n\nHowever, while one would expect individuals to exhibit caution in such an environment, the opposite is true. Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline.\nA Visualization Of A Market Melting-Up\nIt is often easier to visualize something rather than explain it.Since 1900, only two previous market periods qualify as a melt-up: 1920-1929 and 1995-2000.The chart below shows both periods in terms of price.\n\nHowever, the melt-up is also visually represented by the incredibly sharp rise in valuations. Such is essential because earnings are not rising at a fast enough clip to support higher prices.As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way.\n\nWe can compare those two previous periods with the current advance from the March 2020 lows. Again, we see a very similar sharp advance in price combined with a surge in valuations. As expected, investors are currently hoping that future earnings will rise sharply enough to justify current prices. However, the justification for paying high prices is the Federal Reserve’s ongoing balance sheet expansion.\n\nThe following chart looks that the price advance and valuation measures a little differently. It shows the current deviation from the long-term exponential growth trend. Not surprisingly, during a market“melt-up,”there is a rapid deviation from the growth trend matching the acceleration in valuations.\n\nThe problem with market“melt-ups”is not the melt-up itself but what always follows.\nMelting-Up Leads To Melting-Down\nA market melting-up is exciting while it lasts. During melt-ups, investors begin to rationalize why“this time is different.”They start taking on excess leverage to try and capitalize on the rapid advance in prices, and fundamentals take a back seat to price momentum.\nMarket melt-ups are all about“psychology.”Historically, whatever has been the catalyst to spark the disregard of risk is readily witnessed in the corresponding surge in price and valuations.The chart below shows the long-term deviations in relative strength, deviations, and valuations. The previous‘melt-up”periods should be easy to spot when compared with the advance currently.\n\nGiven that current extensions match only a few rare periods in history, a couple of points should be readily apparent.\n\nMelt-ups can longer than logic would predict.\nThe prevailing psychology is always “this time is different.”\nValuations are dismissed in exchange for measures of momentum and forward expectations.\nInvestors take on excess leverage and risk in order to participate in a seemingly “can’t lose” market.\nLastly, and inevitably, “melt-ups” end and always in the worst possible outcomes.\n\nIt is essential to recognize the markets are in a“melt-up,” and the duration of that event is unknowable. Therefore, investors need a strategy to participate in the advance and mitigate the damage from the eventual“melting-down.”\nSurviving The Melt-Up\nAs noted, none of this means the next“bear market”is lurking.Given that a market melting-up is a function of psychology, they can last longer and go further than logic would predict. What is required to “end”a melt-up is an unanticipated exogenous event that changes psychology from bullish to bearish. Such is when the stampede for the exits occurs, and prices decline very quickly.\nAs such, investors need a set of guidelines to participate in the market advance. But, of course, the hard part is keeping those gains when corrections inevitably occur.\nAs portfolio managers for our clients, such is precisely the approach we must take. Accordingly, I have provided a general overview of the process that we employ.\n\nTighten up stop-loss levelsto current support levels for each position.(Provides identifiable exit points when the market reverses.)\nHedge portfoliosagainst major market declines.(Non-correlated assets, short-market positions, index put options)\nTake profitsin positions that have been big winners(Rebalancing overbought or extended positions to capture gains but continue to participate in the advance.)\nSell laggardsand losers.(If something isn’t working in a market melt-up, it most likely won’t work during a broad decline. Better to eliminate the risk early.)\nRaise cashand rebalance portfolios to target weightings.(Rebalancing risk on a regular basis keeps hidden risks somewhat mitigated.)\n\nNotice, nothing in there says,“sell everything and go to cash.”\nThere will be a time to raise significant levels of cash. A good portfolio management strategy will automatically ensure that“stop-loss”levels get triggered, exposure decreases, and cash levels rise when the selling begins.\nWhile it is essential to take advantage of the melt-up while it lasts, just don’t become overly complacent“this time is different.”\nIt likely isn’t.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866431835,"gmtCreate":1632795256927,"gmtModify":1632797569359,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866431835","repostId":"1154750014","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866936010,"gmtCreate":1632719992030,"gmtModify":1632798308407,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866936010","repostId":"2170488786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170488786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632685409,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170488786?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 03:43","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170488786","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race t","content":"<p>Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, economic data on consumer confidence is also due for release.</p>\n<p>The Senate is expected to vote Monday on a procedural motion over the legislation passed by the House of Representatives last week. That bill included a plan to temporarily fund the government through early December, and came alongside a measure to raise the government debt ceiling through December 2022.</p>\n<p>The latter point has been an area of contention for Senate Republicans, who are only narrowly outnumbered by Democratic lawmakers in both chambers and who have threatened to block the bill in its current form.</p>\n<p>Senate Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that Democratic lawmakers should use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling without Republican support. McConnell has, however, supported a short-term government funding bill that excludes a debt ceiling suspension.</p>\n<p>\"If they [the Democrats] want to tax, borrow and spend historic sums of money without our input, they’ll have to raise the debt limit without our help. This is the reality,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last week.</p>\n<p>Democratic lawmakers, for their part, have called for the move to raise the debt limit be bipartisan to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. could default on its debts as soon as October in absence of congressional action.</p>\n<p>\"The U.S. has always paid its bills on time, but the overwhelming consensus among economists and Treasury officials of both parties is that failing to raise the debt limit would produce widespread economic catastrophe,\" Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week.</p>\n<p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned of the consequences of a failure to raise the debt ceiling during his post-FOMC meeting press conference last week.</p>\n<p>\"It's just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due. That's a critically important thing,\" he said. \"The failure to do that is something that could result in severe reactions, severe damage to the economy and to the financial markets ... no <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6a59b9c059b09d9267c8298e0b837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A dead Elm tree is removed on the West Front of the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)ASSOCIATED PRESS</p>\n<p>Amid the standoff, the Office of Management and Budget began warning federal agencies last week to prepare for a potential government shutdown. The reminder served as a standard warning one week out from Congress's deadline to reach an agreement to at least temporarily continue funding the government.</p>\n<p>Though leaders of both political parties have agreed that a continuing resolution to avoid the shutdown at the end of the month is needed, the ongoing tension over raising the debt limit has served as a potential roadblock in this effort.</p>\n<p>\"We still expect Congress to avert a partial government shutdown at the start of October. Republicans won’t vote for the current continuing resolution being touted by the Democratic leadership, which also includes a new debt ceiling suspension,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note Friday. \"But we expect a Plan B to emerge next week with the latter stripped out, which Republicans will support.\"</p>\n<p>\"The bigger issue is that there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to raising the debt ceiling by mid-October, which is when estimates suggest the Treasury’s will exhaust the 'extraordinary measures it is currently using to keep the lights on,\" he added.</p>\n<p>Investors have also grown jittery as the debates wore on, with stocks posting their worst day since May last week amid a confluence of concerns that also included debt concerns with China Evergrande.</p>\n<p>Many strategists, however, have suggested market participants need not be overly concerned about the impacts of a potential government shutdown.</p>\n<p>\"Historically, we've seen that government shutdowns tend to be short-lived,\" Jordan Jackson, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We also know that for those non-essential federal employees, they do get furlough pay as well.\"</p>\n<p>\"If it lasts more than 30 days, it's certainly going to have a bigger impact on the economy. But generally speaking, these shutdowns tend to be short-lived and markets — while they may correct in the short-term — they do sort of continue to grind higher,\" he added. \"I think it's certainly a risk in terms of a short-term mini correction there. But again, with all the liquidity out there, I think any sort of blip in the markets will be short-lived.\"</p>\n<p>Historical equity performance during and immediately following a government shutdown has also tended to point to a muted market impact.</p>\n<p>\"In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&amp;P 500 generated median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution,\" David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist, wrote in a note published on Sept. 21.</p>\n<p>\"One notable exception was the most recent federal shutdown in December 2018, when the S&amp;P 500 fell 2% on the spending authority expiration date,\" he added. \"However, this decline was likely driven primarily by investor concerns about Fed tightening.\"</p>\n<p>Kostin also noted that the typical government shutdown since 1980 has only lasted three days before ultimately being resolved. More recent shutdowns have lasted several times longer, however, with the duration of the four most recent federal shutdowns averaging 18 days, Kostin said.</p>\n<h3>Consumer confidence</h3>\n<p>On the economic data front, one of the most closely watched new pieces of data will be on consumer confidence.</p>\n<p>The Conference Board is set to release its September consumer confidence index Tuesday morning. Economists expect the index to tick up only slightly compared to August, with consumers' views on the coronavirus and rising prices stabilizing near the lowest level since February.</p>\n<p>Specifically, consensus economists are looking for the index to rise to 115.0 in September after dropping to 113.8 in August. During the last monthly report, consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions both eased, and expectations for the next six months out also deteriorated.</p>\n<p>\"Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, due to concerns around the Delta variant and inflation,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note on Friday. \"We think these concerns largely remained in September.\"</p>\n<p>At the time, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said it was still \"too soon to conclude\" whether decline in consumer confidence would \"result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.\"</p>\n<p>The latest spending data has also been equivocal. The Commerce Department's latest report showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August after declining in July. However, the categories posting the biggest declines were areas like e-commerce shops and grocery stores, suggesting consumer behavior was shifting back toward stay-in-place trends and away from in-person events like restaurant dining amid the latest wave of the coronavirus.</p>\n<h3>Economic calendar</h3>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Monday: </b>Durable goods orders, August preliminary (0.6% expected, -0.1% in July); Durable goods excluding transportation, August preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.8% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.1% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.9% in July); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (11.0 expected, 9.0 in July)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Tuesday: </b>Advance goods trade balance, August (-$87.0 billion expected, -$86.4 billion in July); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August preliminary (0.6% in July); Retail inventories, month-over-month, August (0.4% in July); FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, July (1.5% expected, 1.6% in July); S&amp;P <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLGX\">CoreLogic</a> Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (1.62% expected, 1.77% in June); S&amp;P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (20.1% expected, 19.08% in June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, September (114.2 expected, 113.8 in August); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September (9 in August)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Wednesday: </b>MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 24 (4.9% during prior month); Pending home sales, month-over-month, August (1.0% expected, -1.8% in July)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Thursday: </b>Initial jobless claims, week ended September 25 (320,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 18 (2.845 million during prior week); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.7% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate); Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate); MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Friday: </b>Personal income, August (0.2% expected, 1.1% in July); Personal spending, August (0.7% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, month-over-over, August (0.2% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, year-over-year, August (3.6% expected, 3.6% in July); <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRKT\">Markit</a> manufacturing PMI, September final (60.5 in prior estimate); Construction spending, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% in July); University of Michigan sentiment, September final (71.0 expected, 71.0 in prior print); ISM Manufacturing, September (59.5 expected, 59.9 in August)</p></li>\n</ul>\n<h3>Earnings calendar</h3>\n<ul>\n <li><p><b>Monday: </b>Aurora Cannabis (ACB) after market close</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Tuesday: </b>Micron Technology (MU) after market close.</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Wednesday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for release</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b>Thursday: </b>CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY) before market open; Jefferies (JEF) after market close</p></li>\n <li><p><b>Friday: </b><i>No notable reports scheduled for releas</i></p></li>\n</ul>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Debt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDebt ceiling debates in Congress, consumer confidence: What to know this week\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-27 03:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html><strong>Yahoo Finance</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e749e88d2580d292ffc6ae18d03b65","relate_stocks":{"SPY.AU":"SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/debt-ceiling-debates-in-congress-consumer-confidence-what-to-know-this-week-194329712.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170488786","content_text":"Investors this week are set to closely monitor developments in Washington, D.C., as lawmakers race to pass legislation to avoid a government shutdown by the end of the month and debate raising the debt ceiling. Elsewhere, economic data on consumer confidence is also due for release.\nThe Senate is expected to vote Monday on a procedural motion over the legislation passed by the House of Representatives last week. That bill included a plan to temporarily fund the government through early December, and came alongside a measure to raise the government debt ceiling through December 2022.\nThe latter point has been an area of contention for Senate Republicans, who are only narrowly outnumbered by Democratic lawmakers in both chambers and who have threatened to block the bill in its current form.\nSenate Republicans including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have suggested that Democratic lawmakers should use the budget reconciliation process to raise the debt ceiling without Republican support. McConnell has, however, supported a short-term government funding bill that excludes a debt ceiling suspension.\n\"If they [the Democrats] want to tax, borrow and spend historic sums of money without our input, they’ll have to raise the debt limit without our help. This is the reality,” McConnell said on the Senate floor last week.\nDemocratic lawmakers, for their part, have called for the move to raise the debt limit be bipartisan to prevent the government from defaulting on its obligations. The Treasury Department has warned that the U.S. could default on its debts as soon as October in absence of congressional action.\n\"The U.S. has always paid its bills on time, but the overwhelming consensus among economists and Treasury officials of both parties is that failing to raise the debt limit would produce widespread economic catastrophe,\" Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrote in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal last week.\nFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned of the consequences of a failure to raise the debt ceiling during his post-FOMC meeting press conference last week.\n\"It's just very important that the debt ceiling be raised in a timely fashion so that the United States can pay its bills when and as they come due. That's a critically important thing,\" he said. \"The failure to do that is something that could result in severe reactions, severe damage to the economy and to the financial markets ... no one should assume that the Fed or anyone else can protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.\"\nA dead Elm tree is removed on the West Front of the Capitol in Washington, Friday, Sept. 10, 2021. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)ASSOCIATED PRESS\nAmid the standoff, the Office of Management and Budget began warning federal agencies last week to prepare for a potential government shutdown. The reminder served as a standard warning one week out from Congress's deadline to reach an agreement to at least temporarily continue funding the government.\nThough leaders of both political parties have agreed that a continuing resolution to avoid the shutdown at the end of the month is needed, the ongoing tension over raising the debt limit has served as a potential roadblock in this effort.\n\"We still expect Congress to avert a partial government shutdown at the start of October. Republicans won’t vote for the current continuing resolution being touted by the Democratic leadership, which also includes a new debt ceiling suspension,\" wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist for Capital Economics, in a note Friday. \"But we expect a Plan B to emerge next week with the latter stripped out, which Republicans will support.\"\n\"The bigger issue is that there doesn’t appear to be an easy path to raising the debt ceiling by mid-October, which is when estimates suggest the Treasury’s will exhaust the 'extraordinary measures it is currently using to keep the lights on,\" he added.\nInvestors have also grown jittery as the debates wore on, with stocks posting their worst day since May last week amid a confluence of concerns that also included debt concerns with China Evergrande.\nMany strategists, however, have suggested market participants need not be overly concerned about the impacts of a potential government shutdown.\n\"Historically, we've seen that government shutdowns tend to be short-lived,\" Jordan Jackson, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, told Yahoo Finance Live on Friday. \"We also know that for those non-essential federal employees, they do get furlough pay as well.\"\n\"If it lasts more than 30 days, it's certainly going to have a bigger impact on the economy. But generally speaking, these shutdowns tend to be short-lived and markets — while they may correct in the short-term — they do sort of continue to grind higher,\" he added. \"I think it's certainly a risk in terms of a short-term mini correction there. But again, with all the liquidity out there, I think any sort of blip in the markets will be short-lived.\"\nHistorical equity performance during and immediately following a government shutdown has also tended to point to a muted market impact.\n\"In the 14 government shutdowns since 1980, the S&P 500 generated median returns of -0.1% on the dates of budget authority expiration, 0.1% during the shutdown periods, and 0.3% on the dates of resolution,\" David Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief equity strategist, wrote in a note published on Sept. 21.\n\"One notable exception was the most recent federal shutdown in December 2018, when the S&P 500 fell 2% on the spending authority expiration date,\" he added. \"However, this decline was likely driven primarily by investor concerns about Fed tightening.\"\nKostin also noted that the typical government shutdown since 1980 has only lasted three days before ultimately being resolved. More recent shutdowns have lasted several times longer, however, with the duration of the four most recent federal shutdowns averaging 18 days, Kostin said.\nConsumer confidence\nOn the economic data front, one of the most closely watched new pieces of data will be on consumer confidence.\nThe Conference Board is set to release its September consumer confidence index Tuesday morning. Economists expect the index to tick up only slightly compared to August, with consumers' views on the coronavirus and rising prices stabilizing near the lowest level since February.\nSpecifically, consensus economists are looking for the index to rise to 115.0 in September after dropping to 113.8 in August. During the last monthly report, consumers' assessments of current business and labor market conditions both eased, and expectations for the next six months out also deteriorated.\n\"Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low in August, due to concerns around the Delta variant and inflation,\" wrote Bank of America economist Michelle Meyer in a note on Friday. \"We think these concerns largely remained in September.\"\nAt the time, Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said it was still \"too soon to conclude\" whether decline in consumer confidence would \"result in consumers significantly curtailing their spending in the months ahead.\"\nThe latest spending data has also been equivocal. The Commerce Department's latest report showed retail sales rose 0.7% in August after declining in July. However, the categories posting the biggest declines were areas like e-commerce shops and grocery stores, suggesting consumer behavior was shifting back toward stay-in-place trends and away from in-person events like restaurant dining amid the latest wave of the coronavirus.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday: Durable goods orders, August preliminary (0.6% expected, -0.1% in July); Durable goods excluding transportation, August preliminary (0.5% expected, 0.8% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.3% expected, 0.1% in July); Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, August preliminary (0.9% in July); Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index, September (11.0 expected, 9.0 in July)\nTuesday: Advance goods trade balance, August (-$87.0 billion expected, -$86.4 billion in July); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August preliminary (0.6% in July); Retail inventories, month-over-month, August (0.4% in July); FHFA House Price Index, month-over-month, July (1.5% expected, 1.6% in July); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (1.62% expected, 1.77% in June); S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Index, month-over-month, July (20.1% expected, 19.08% in June); Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, September (114.2 expected, 113.8 in August); Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, September (9 in August)\nWednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended September 24 (4.9% during prior month); Pending home sales, month-over-month, August (1.0% expected, -1.8% in July)\nThursday: Initial jobless claims, week ended September 25 (320,000 expected, 351,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 18 (2.845 million during prior week); GDP annualized, quarter-over-quarter, second-quarter third estimate (6.7% expected, 6.6% in prior estimate); Personal consumption, second-quarter third estimate (11.9% in prior estimate); Core personal consumption expenditures, second quarter third estimate (6.1% in prior estimate); MNI Chicago PMI, September (65.0 expected, 66.8 in August)\nFriday: Personal income, August (0.2% expected, 1.1% in July); Personal spending, August (0.7% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, month-over-over, August (0.2% expected, 0.3% in July); Personal consumption expenditures core deflator, year-over-year, August (3.6% expected, 3.6% in July); Markit manufacturing PMI, September final (60.5 in prior estimate); Construction spending, month-over-month, August (0.3% expected, 0.3% in July); University of Michigan sentiment, September final (71.0 expected, 71.0 in prior print); ISM Manufacturing, September (59.5 expected, 59.9 in August)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) after market close\nTuesday: Micron Technology (MU) after market close.\nWednesday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nThursday: CarMax (KMX), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) before market open; Jefferies (JEF) after market close\nFriday: No notable reports scheduled for releas","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY.AU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861271672,"gmtCreate":1632506407096,"gmtModify":1632714690520,"author":{"id":"4088936981410470","authorId":"4088936981410470","name":"5ca945a6","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088936981410470","authorIdStr":"4088936981410470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861271672","repostId":"1104085778","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104085778","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632498166,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104085778?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-24 23:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"IPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104085778","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 24) Cue Health Inc. opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.\n\nCompany & Technology\nS","content":"<p>(Sept 24)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLTH\">Cue Health Inc.</a> opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7270662a08ec3dac176aa52bf5cbd1a\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Company &amp; Technology</b></p>\n<p>San Diego, California-based Cue was founded to first develop a COVID-19 test kit and integrated information platform for processing and communication.</p>\n<p>Management is headed by co-founder, Chairman and CEO Ayub Khattak, who has been with the firm since inception and holds a B.S. in mathematics from UCLA.</p>\n<p>The company’s primary offerings in its Cue Integrated Care Platform:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Health monitoring system</p></li>\n <li><p>Rader</p></li>\n <li><p>Cartridge</p></li>\n <li><p>Wand</p></li>\n <li><p>Data</p></li>\n <li><p>Delivery apps</p></li>\n <li><p>Enterprise dashboard</p></li>\n <li><p>Ecosystem integrations</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Cue has received at least $176 million in equity investment from investors including ACME Capital, Cove Investors, Decheng Capital China Life Sciences, Madrone and NVGA I.</p>\n<p><b>Customer/User Acquisition</b></p>\n<p>The company pursues healthcare provider relationships through its in-house direct sales team focused on healthcare providers, large enterprises and public sector clients.</p>\n<p>Management expects 2021 customer demand for its COVID-19 test kits to exceed its manufacturing capacity.</p>\n<p>Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have varied as revenues have increased sharply, as the figures below indicate:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Sales and Marketing</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Expenses vs. Revenue</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Percentage</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>1.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>3.1%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>1.3%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>The Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, was 100.5x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Sales and Marketing</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Efficiency Rate</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Multiple</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>100.5</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>22.9</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Market &amp; Competition</b></p>\n<p>According to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Grand View Research, the global market for COVID-19 detection kits was an estimated $3.28 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $5 billion by 2027.</p>\n<p>This represents a forecast CAGR of 5.05% from 2021 to 2027.</p>\n<p>The main drivers for this expected growth are a strong growth in demand for testing services of all types on a global basis.</p>\n<p>Also, below is a chart showing the market share of use of detection kits by end-user type:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7fc60b336bae7685e08132f8176b57\" tg-width=\"1158\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source)</p>\n<p>Major competitive or other industry participants include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Abbott Laboratories(NYSE:ABT)</p></li>\n <li><p>Becton, Dickinson(NYSE:BDX)</p></li>\n <li><p>bioMerieux(OTCPK:BMXMF)</p></li>\n <li><p>Bio-Rad Laboratories(NYSE:BIO)</p></li>\n <li><p>Danaher(NYSE:DHR)</p></li>\n <li><p>Ellume Limited</p></li>\n <li><p>Everly Health</p></li>\n <li><p>Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)(OTCQX:RHHBF)</p></li>\n <li><p>Fluidigm(NASDAQ:FLDM)</p></li>\n <li><p>GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)</p></li>\n <li><p>Others</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Financial Performance</b></p>\n<p>Cue’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Sharply growing top line revenue</p></li>\n <li><p>Increasing gross profit and variable gross margin</p></li>\n <li><p>A swing to operating profit and net income</p></li>\n <li><p>Variable cash flow from operations</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Total Revenue</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Total Revenue</p></td>\n   <td><p>% Variance vs. Prior</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 201,922,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>3971.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 22,953,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>246.4%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 6,626,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Gross Profit (Loss)</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Gross Profit (Loss)</p></td>\n   <td><p>% Variance vs. Prior</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 116,745,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>2253.7%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 8,002,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>20.8%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 6,626,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Gross Margin</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Gross Margin</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>57.82%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>34.86%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>100.00%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Operating Profit (Loss)</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Operating Profit (Loss)</p></td>\n   <td><p>Operating Margin</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 79,463,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>39.4%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (45,126,000)</p></td>\n   <td><p>-196.6%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (20,767,000)</p></td>\n   <td><p>-313.4%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Net Income (Loss)</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Net Income (Loss)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 32,840,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (47,352,000)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (20,606,000)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Cash Flow From Operations</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Cash Flow From Operations</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (37,812,000)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 92,655,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (12,996,000)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>As of June 30, 2021, Cue had $246.3 million in cash and $516.3 million in total liabilities.</p>\n<p>Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($60 million).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation Metrics</b></p>\n<p>Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Measure [TTM]</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Amount</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Market Capitalization at IPO</p></td>\n   <td><p>$2,299,981,232</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Enterprise Value</p></td>\n   <td><p>$1,874,455,232</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Price / Sales</p></td>\n   <td><p>10.46</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>EV / Revenue</p></td>\n   <td><p>8.52</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>EV / EBITDA</p></td>\n   <td><p>35.46</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Earnings Per Share</p></td>\n   <td><p>$0.03</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Float To Outstanding Shares Ratio</p></td>\n   <td><p>8.70%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Proposed IPO Midpoint Price per Share</p></td>\n   <td><p>$16.00</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Net Free Cash Flow</p></td>\n   <td><p>-$59,920,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Free Cash Flow Yield Per Share</p></td>\n   <td><p>-2.61%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Revenue Growth Rate</p></td>\n   <td><p>3971.01%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>As a reference, a potential partial and imperfect public comparable to Cue would be Bio-Rad (BIO); below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Metric</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Bio-Rad (BIO)</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Cue Health (HLTH)</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Variance</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Price / Sales</p></td>\n   <td><p>8.15</p></td>\n   <td><p>10.46</p></td>\n   <td><p>28.3%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>EV / Revenue</p></td>\n   <td><p>7.82</p></td>\n   <td><p>8.52</p></td>\n   <td><p>9.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>EV / EBITDA</p></td>\n   <td><p>31.66</p></td>\n   <td><p>35.46</p></td>\n   <td><p>12.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Earnings Per Share</p></td>\n   <td><p>$134.05</p></td>\n   <td><p>$0.03</p></td>\n   <td><p>-100.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Revenue Growth Rate</p></td>\n   <td><p>25.6%</p></td>\n   <td><p>3971.01%</p></td>\n   <td><p>15436.03%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>(Glossary Of Terms)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Commentary</b></p>\n<p>Cue is seeking public investment capital to further scale its commercialization operations as well as continue its R &amp; D efforts.</p>\n<p>The company’s financials show sharply growing top line revenue, strong growth in gross profit and variable gross margin, a swing to operating profit and net income and highly fluctuating cash flow from or use in operations</p>\n<p>Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was an eye-popping negative ($60 million).</p>\n<p>Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased dramatically; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate was an extremely high 100.5x in the most recent reporting period.</p>\n<p>The market opportunity for COVID-19 and related test kit platforms is large and will likely grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years as countries around the world seek to bolster their testing capabilities in the wake of the recent global pandemic.</p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 39.9% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p>\n<p>The primary risk to the firm now is that it is essentially a one-product company, so its revenue base is heavily concentrated.</p>\n<p>As for valuation, compared to partial competitor Bio-Rad Laboratories, the IPO is reasonably valued on a revenue multiple, although Cue is growing at a much higher rate of growth from a much lower revenue base, so the comparison is strained at best.</p>\n<p>Given Cue’s growth trajectory, profitability and reasonable IPO valuation, the IPO is worth consideration.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>IPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIPO opening reminder: Cue Health opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-24 23:42</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 24)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HLTH\">Cue Health Inc.</a> opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7270662a08ec3dac176aa52bf5cbd1a\" tg-width=\"902\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>Company &amp; Technology</b></p>\n<p>San Diego, California-based Cue was founded to first develop a COVID-19 test kit and integrated information platform for processing and communication.</p>\n<p>Management is headed by co-founder, Chairman and CEO Ayub Khattak, who has been with the firm since inception and holds a B.S. in mathematics from UCLA.</p>\n<p>The company’s primary offerings in its Cue Integrated Care Platform:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Health monitoring system</p></li>\n <li><p>Rader</p></li>\n <li><p>Cartridge</p></li>\n <li><p>Wand</p></li>\n <li><p>Data</p></li>\n <li><p>Delivery apps</p></li>\n <li><p>Enterprise dashboard</p></li>\n <li><p>Ecosystem integrations</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Cue has received at least $176 million in equity investment from investors including ACME Capital, Cove Investors, Decheng Capital China Life Sciences, Madrone and NVGA I.</p>\n<p><b>Customer/User Acquisition</b></p>\n<p>The company pursues healthcare provider relationships through its in-house direct sales team focused on healthcare providers, large enterprises and public sector clients.</p>\n<p>Management expects 2021 customer demand for its COVID-19 test kits to exceed its manufacturing capacity.</p>\n<p>Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have varied as revenues have increased sharply, as the figures below indicate:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Sales and Marketing</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Expenses vs. Revenue</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Percentage</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>1.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>3.1%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>1.3%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>The Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, was 100.5x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p>\n<table>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Sales and Marketing</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Efficiency Rate</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Multiple</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>100.5</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>22.9</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Market &amp; Competition</b></p>\n<p>According to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Grand View Research, the global market for COVID-19 detection kits was an estimated $3.28 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $5 billion by 2027.</p>\n<p>This represents a forecast CAGR of 5.05% from 2021 to 2027.</p>\n<p>The main drivers for this expected growth are a strong growth in demand for testing services of all types on a global basis.</p>\n<p>Also, below is a chart showing the market share of use of detection kits by end-user type:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b7fc60b336bae7685e08132f8176b57\" tg-width=\"1158\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>(Source)</p>\n<p>Major competitive or other industry participants include:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Abbott Laboratories(NYSE:ABT)</p></li>\n <li><p>Becton, Dickinson(NYSE:BDX)</p></li>\n <li><p>bioMerieux(OTCPK:BMXMF)</p></li>\n <li><p>Bio-Rad Laboratories(NYSE:BIO)</p></li>\n <li><p>Danaher(NYSE:DHR)</p></li>\n <li><p>Ellume Limited</p></li>\n <li><p>Everly Health</p></li>\n <li><p>Roche(OTCQX:RHHBY)(OTCQX:RHHBF)</p></li>\n <li><p>Fluidigm(NASDAQ:FLDM)</p></li>\n <li><p>GenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)</p></li>\n <li><p>Others</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Financial Performance</b></p>\n<p>Cue’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p>Sharply growing top line revenue</p></li>\n <li><p>Increasing gross profit and variable gross margin</p></li>\n <li><p>A swing to operating profit and net income</p></li>\n <li><p>Variable cash flow from operations</p></li>\n</ul>\n<p>Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Total Revenue</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Total Revenue</p></td>\n   <td><p>% Variance vs. Prior</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 201,922,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>3971.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 22,953,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>246.4%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 6,626,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Gross Profit (Loss)</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Gross Profit (Loss)</p></td>\n   <td><p>% Variance vs. Prior</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 116,745,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>2253.7%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 8,002,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>20.8%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 6,626,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Gross Margin</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Gross Margin</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>57.82%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>34.86%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>100.00%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Operating Profit (Loss)</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Operating Profit (Loss)</p></td>\n   <td><p>Operating Margin</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 79,463,000</p></td>\n   <td><p>39.4%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (45,126,000)</p></td>\n   <td><p>-196.6%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (20,767,000)</p></td>\n   <td><p>-313.4%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Net Income (Loss)</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Net Income (Loss)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 32,840,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (47,352,000)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (20,606,000)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr></tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Cash Flow From Operations</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Period</p></td>\n   <td><p>Cash Flow From Operations</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (37,812,000)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2020</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ 92,655,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>2019</p></td>\n   <td><p>$ (12,996,000)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>As of June 30, 2021, Cue had $246.3 million in cash and $516.3 million in total liabilities.</p>\n<p>Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($60 million).</p>\n<p><b>Valuation Metrics</b></p>\n<p>Below is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Measure [TTM]</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Amount</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Market Capitalization at IPO</p></td>\n   <td><p>$2,299,981,232</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Enterprise Value</p></td>\n   <td><p>$1,874,455,232</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Price / Sales</p></td>\n   <td><p>10.46</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>EV / Revenue</p></td>\n   <td><p>8.52</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>EV / EBITDA</p></td>\n   <td><p>35.46</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Earnings Per Share</p></td>\n   <td><p>$0.03</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Float To Outstanding Shares Ratio</p></td>\n   <td><p>8.70%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Proposed IPO Midpoint Price per Share</p></td>\n   <td><p>$16.00</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Net Free Cash Flow</p></td>\n   <td><p>-$59,920,000</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Free Cash Flow Yield Per Share</p></td>\n   <td><p>-2.61%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Revenue Growth Rate</p></td>\n   <td><p>3971.01%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p>As a reference, a potential partial and imperfect public comparable to Cue would be Bio-Rad (BIO); below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p>\n<table>\n <colgroup></colgroup>\n <tbody>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p><b>Metric</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Bio-Rad (BIO)</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Cue Health (HLTH)</b></p></td>\n   <td><p><b>Variance</b></p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Price / Sales</p></td>\n   <td><p>8.15</p></td>\n   <td><p>10.46</p></td>\n   <td><p>28.3%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>EV / Revenue</p></td>\n   <td><p>7.82</p></td>\n   <td><p>8.52</p></td>\n   <td><p>9.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>EV / EBITDA</p></td>\n   <td><p>31.66</p></td>\n   <td><p>35.46</p></td>\n   <td><p>12.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Earnings Per Share</p></td>\n   <td><p>$134.05</p></td>\n   <td><p>$0.03</p></td>\n   <td><p>-100.0%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>Revenue Growth Rate</p></td>\n   <td><p>25.6%</p></td>\n   <td><p>3971.01%</p></td>\n   <td><p>15436.03%</p></td>\n  </tr>\n  <tr>\n   <td><p>(Glossary Of Terms)</p></td>\n  </tr>\n </tbody>\n</table>\n<p><b>Commentary</b></p>\n<p>Cue is seeking public investment capital to further scale its commercialization operations as well as continue its R &amp; D efforts.</p>\n<p>The company’s financials show sharply growing top line revenue, strong growth in gross profit and variable gross margin, a swing to operating profit and net income and highly fluctuating cash flow from or use in operations</p>\n<p>Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was an eye-popping negative ($60 million).</p>\n<p>Sales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased dramatically; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate was an extremely high 100.5x in the most recent reporting period.</p>\n<p>The market opportunity for COVID-19 and related test kit platforms is large and will likely grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years as countries around the world seek to bolster their testing capabilities in the wake of the recent global pandemic.</p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 39.9% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p>\n<p>The primary risk to the firm now is that it is essentially a one-product company, so its revenue base is heavily concentrated.</p>\n<p>As for valuation, compared to partial competitor Bio-Rad Laboratories, the IPO is reasonably valued on a revenue multiple, although Cue is growing at a much higher rate of growth from a much lower revenue base, so the comparison is strained at best.</p>\n<p>Given Cue’s growth trajectory, profitability and reasonable IPO valuation, the IPO is worth consideration.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104085778","content_text":"(Sept 24) Cue Health Inc. opens for trading at $19.2, up 20% from IPO price.\n\nCompany & Technology\nSan Diego, California-based Cue was founded to first develop a COVID-19 test kit and integrated information platform for processing and communication.\nManagement is headed by co-founder, Chairman and CEO Ayub Khattak, who has been with the firm since inception and holds a B.S. in mathematics from UCLA.\nThe company’s primary offerings in its Cue Integrated Care Platform:\n\nHealth monitoring system\nRader\nCartridge\nWand\nData\nDelivery apps\nEnterprise dashboard\nEcosystem integrations\n\nCue has received at least $176 million in equity investment from investors including ACME Capital, Cove Investors, Decheng Capital China Life Sciences, Madrone and NVGA I.\nCustomer/User Acquisition\nThe company pursues healthcare provider relationships through its in-house direct sales team focused on healthcare providers, large enterprises and public sector clients.\nManagement expects 2021 customer demand for its COVID-19 test kits to exceed its manufacturing capacity.\nSales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have varied as revenues have increased sharply, as the figures below indicate:\n\n\n\nSales and Marketing\nExpenses vs. Revenue\n\n\nPeriod\nPercentage\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n1.0%\n\n\n2020\n3.1%\n\n\n2019\n1.3%\n\n\n\nThe Sales and Marketing efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Sales and Marketing spend, was 100.5x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:\n\n\n\nSales and Marketing\nEfficiency Rate\n\n\nPeriod\nMultiple\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n100.5\n\n\n2020\n22.9\n\n\n\nMarket & Competition\nAccording to a 2020 marketresearch reportby Grand View Research, the global market for COVID-19 detection kits was an estimated $3.28 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $5 billion by 2027.\nThis represents a forecast CAGR of 5.05% from 2021 to 2027.\nThe main drivers for this expected growth are a strong growth in demand for testing services of all types on a global basis.\nAlso, below is a chart showing the market share of use of detection kits by end-user type:\n\n(Source)\nMajor competitive or other industry participants include:\n\nAbbott Laboratories(NYSE:ABT)\nBecton, Dickinson(NYSE:BDX)\nbioMerieux(OTCPK:BMXMF)\nBio-Rad Laboratories(NYSE:BIO)\nDanaher(NYSE:DHR)\nEllume Limited\nEverly Health\nRoche(OTCQX:RHHBY)(OTCQX:RHHBF)\nFluidigm(NASDAQ:FLDM)\nGenMark Diagnostics(NASDAQ:GNMK)\nOthers\n\nFinancial Performance\nCue’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:\n\nSharply growing top line revenue\nIncreasing gross profit and variable gross margin\nA swing to operating profit and net income\nVariable cash flow from operations\n\nBelow are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:\n\n\n\n\nTotal Revenue\n\n\nPeriod\nTotal Revenue\n% Variance vs. Prior\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 201,922,000\n3971.0%\n\n\n2020\n$ 22,953,000\n246.4%\n\n\n2019\n$ 6,626,000\n\n\n\nGross Profit (Loss)\n\n\nPeriod\nGross Profit (Loss)\n% Variance vs. Prior\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 116,745,000\n2253.7%\n\n\n2020\n$ 8,002,000\n20.8%\n\n\n2019\n$ 6,626,000\n\n\n\nGross Margin\n\n\nPeriod\nGross Margin\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n57.82%\n\n\n2020\n34.86%\n\n\n2019\n100.00%\n\n\n\nOperating Profit (Loss)\n\n\nPeriod\nOperating Profit (Loss)\nOperating Margin\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 79,463,000\n39.4%\n\n\n2020\n$ (45,126,000)\n-196.6%\n\n\n2019\n$ (20,767,000)\n-313.4%\n\n\n\nNet Income (Loss)\n\n\nPeriod\nNet Income (Loss)\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 32,840,000\n\n\n2020\n$ (47,352,000)\n\n\n2019\n$ (20,606,000)\n\n\n\nCash Flow From Operations\n\n\nPeriod\nCash Flow From Operations\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ (37,812,000)\n\n\n2020\n$ 92,655,000\n\n\n2019\n$ (12,996,000)\n\n\n\nAs of June 30, 2021, Cue had $246.3 million in cash and $516.3 million in total liabilities.\nFree cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was negative ($60 million).\nValuation Metrics\nBelow is a table of relevant capitalization and valuation figures for the company:\n\n\n\n\nMeasure [TTM]\nAmount\n\n\nMarket Capitalization at IPO\n$2,299,981,232\n\n\nEnterprise Value\n$1,874,455,232\n\n\nPrice / Sales\n10.46\n\n\nEV / Revenue\n8.52\n\n\nEV / EBITDA\n35.46\n\n\nEarnings Per Share\n$0.03\n\n\nFloat To Outstanding Shares Ratio\n8.70%\n\n\nProposed IPO Midpoint Price per Share\n$16.00\n\n\nNet Free Cash Flow\n-$59,920,000\n\n\nFree Cash Flow Yield Per Share\n-2.61%\n\n\nRevenue Growth Rate\n3971.01%\n\n\n\nAs a reference, a potential partial and imperfect public comparable to Cue would be Bio-Rad (BIO); below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nBio-Rad (BIO)\nCue Health (HLTH)\nVariance\n\n\nPrice / Sales\n8.15\n10.46\n28.3%\n\n\nEV / Revenue\n7.82\n8.52\n9.0%\n\n\nEV / EBITDA\n31.66\n35.46\n12.0%\n\n\nEarnings Per Share\n$134.05\n$0.03\n-100.0%\n\n\nRevenue Growth Rate\n25.6%\n3971.01%\n15436.03%\n\n\n(Glossary Of Terms)\n\n\n\nCommentary\nCue is seeking public investment capital to further scale its commercialization operations as well as continue its R & D efforts.\nThe company’s financials show sharply growing top line revenue, strong growth in gross profit and variable gross margin, a swing to operating profit and net income and highly fluctuating cash flow from or use in operations\nFree cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was an eye-popping negative ($60 million).\nSales and Marketing expenses as a percentage of total revenue have fluctuated as revenues have increased dramatically; its Sales and Marketing efficiency rate was an extremely high 100.5x in the most recent reporting period.\nThe market opportunity for COVID-19 and related test kit platforms is large and will likely grow at a high rate of growth over the coming years as countries around the world seek to bolster their testing capabilities in the wake of the recent global pandemic.\nGoldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 39.9% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.\nThe primary risk to the firm now is that it is essentially a one-product company, so its revenue base is heavily concentrated.\nAs for valuation, compared to partial competitor Bio-Rad Laboratories, the IPO is reasonably valued on a revenue multiple, although Cue is growing at a much higher rate of growth from a much lower revenue base, so the comparison is strained at best.\nGiven Cue’s growth trajectory, profitability and reasonable IPO valuation, the IPO is worth consideration.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HLTH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":854,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}