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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-12-17
Should ban short selling
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-12-09
Target price $32
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-12-09
$ChargePoint Holdings Inc.(CHPT)$
updated intrinsic value price to sales $26
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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-11-30
I think tigr should amend the company profile about "focusing on Chinese investors"....
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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-11-10
Yah like bitcoin
The Fed thinks meme stocks threaten the financial structure<blockquote>美联储认为模因股票威胁金融结构</blockquote>
After some detailed research, the Federal Reserve said on Monday thatit is beginning to worrythat th
The Fed thinks meme stocks threaten the financial structure<blockquote>美联储认为模因股票威胁金融结构</blockquote>
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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-11-05
Bubble going to burst soon. How many people will get burn?
Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>
Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r
Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>
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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-11-05
True
Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>
Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r
Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>
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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-10-28
https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/854332882?invite=6D344V&lang=en_US
【声明】
@老虎国际：
近日注意到有关媒体报道，感谢大家对老虎的关注，老虎集团一直视合法合规运营为集团的生命线，我们积极和全球的监管机构保持沟通，坚守合规底线，服从各级监管要求。 老虎证券和其他美国、中国香港券商业务模式一样，严格遵守全球各地监管要求，我们并没有任何法律合规上的变化和创新，只是通过中国科技力量提升用户体验。目前，我们在中国香港地区、新加坡、新西兰、澳大利亚、美国等多地持有证券牌照，80%以上的增量入金客户来自海外，我们始终严格遵守相关的监管要求，保障客户资产安全。
【声明】
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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-10-21
$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$
fair value for sklz should be $19
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judyspt
judyspt
·
2021-10-18
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$
soon someone who wants to take profit will come out with the news that tiger is oversold, buy!
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intrinsic value price to sales $26","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602138737","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1349,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609231051,"gmtCreate":1638284808219,"gmtModify":1638284808349,"author":{"id":"4088945193415610","authorId":"4088945193415610","name":"judyspt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28075c7d730eb01e7fab4597684478f4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088945193415610","authorIdStr":"4088945193415610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think tigr should amend the company profile about \"focusing on Chinese investors\"....","listText":"I think tigr should amend the company profile about \"focusing on Chinese investors\"....","text":"I think tigr should amend the company profile about \"focusing on Chinese investors\"....","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5200de110bdd8ad608d8af7438b39f89","width":"1080","height":"2400"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609231051","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847208814,"gmtCreate":1636519556319,"gmtModify":1636526004203,"author":{"id":"4088945193415610","authorId":"4088945193415610","name":"judyspt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28075c7d730eb01e7fab4597684478f4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088945193415610","authorIdStr":"4088945193415610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yah like bitcoin","listText":"Yah like bitcoin","text":"Yah like bitcoin","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847208814","repostId":"1156695981","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156695981","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636514367,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156695981?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-10 11:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed thinks meme stocks threaten the financial structure<blockquote>美联储认为模因股票威胁金融结构</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156695981","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"After some detailed research, the Federal Reserve said on Monday thatit is beginning to worrythat th","content":"<p>After some detailed research, the Federal Reserve said on Monday thatit is beginning to worrythat the recent and unprecedented volatility in meme stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment are creating pockets of risk inside markets that could create real problems for the entire U.S. financial system.</p><p><blockquote>经过一些详细研究后，美联储周一表示，它开始担心游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票最近前所未有的波动正在市场内制造风险，可能会给整个美国金融体系带来真正的问题。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, many of the self-professed “Apes” who created that volatility reacted to the Fed’s concern about meme stocks in a way best represented by, well, a meme:</p><p><blockquote>周二，许多自称制造波动的“猿类”对美联储对模因股票的担忧做出了反应，模因最能代表这一点：</blockquote></p><p> Based on actual textfrom the Fed’s most recent financial stability report, zero-commission trading apps and investors using social media to coordinate their trades have created a weaponized “echo chamber in which retail investors find themselves communicating most frequently with others with similar interests and views.”</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储最新金融稳定报告的实际文本，零佣金交易应用程序和使用社交媒体协调交易的投资者创造了一个武器化的“回音室”，散户投资者发现自己最频繁地与具有相似兴趣和观点的其他人进行交流。”</blockquote></p><p> In turn, the report found, those like-minded investors create huge waves of volatility and risk that could create real issues for the markets and the financial system in a downturn, especially with so many of these mostly younger retail investors exposing themselves to massive losses using leverage and options to execute their trades.</p><p><blockquote>报告发现，反过来，那些志同道合的投资者制造了巨大的波动和风险，可能会在经济低迷时期给市场和金融体系带来真正的问题，特别是在许多年轻散户投资者面临巨大损失的情况下。使用杠杆和期权执行交易。</blockquote></p><p> But that risk also can be felt elsewhere. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard wrote in a statement accompanying the report that it has already been seen inthe Archegos Capital Management meltdownsaga and could spread.</p><p><blockquote>但这种风险也可以在其他地方感受到。美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)在报告附带的一份声明中写道，这种情况已经在Archegos Capital Management的崩溃传奇中出现，并且可能会蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> “It highlights the potential for nonbank financial institutions such as hedge funds and other leveraged investors to generate large losses in the financial system,” Brainard wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德周一写道：“这凸显了对冲基金和其他杠杆投资者等非银行金融机构在金融体系中造成巨额损失的可能性。”</blockquote></p><p> But while that warning — whichwasn’t Brainard’s first timeringing the alarm on the topic — might have been of concern for Wall Street, retail investors were unshaken.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这一警告——这并不是布雷纳德第一次就这个话题发出警报——可能会引起华尔街的担忧，但散户投资者并没有动摇。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, many retail investors on social media spent Tuesday telling the Fed that using stocks to upend the existing structure of the financial system, by making hedge funds bleed, has been one of their goals all along, using the volatility to reveal what they see as widespread corruption.</p><p><blockquote>相反，社交媒体上的许多散户投资者周二告诉美联储，利用股票通过让对冲基金流血来颠覆金融体系的现有结构，一直是他们的目标之一，利用波动性来揭示他们所看到的普遍腐败。</blockquote></p><p> After all, it’s been no secret that Reddit’s Apes would like nothing more than to see hedge funds crippled by their own actions. Many individuals also expect the end result of that destruction to be a fairer system in which the little guy can thrive.</p><p><blockquote>毕竟，众所周知，Reddit的猿类最希望看到对冲基金因自己的行为而瘫痪。许多人还期望这种破坏的最终结果是一个更公平的系统，在这个系统中，小人物可以茁壮成长。</blockquote></p><p> “How is it that the ultra rich can basically GAMBLE in the stock market with over-leveraged positions, Dark Pools, insider information, etc. for YEARS and there is nothing to worry about,” read one very popular post on subreddit r/Superstonk.</p><p><blockquote>subreddit r/Superstonk上的一篇非常受欢迎的帖子写道：“为什么超级富豪基本上可以用过度杠杆头寸、暗池、内幕信息等在股市上赌博多年，没有什么可担心的。”</blockquote></p><p> “Yeah, these are pretty big words coming from an entity that printed 33% of money into existence in a year and then claimed that it wouldn’t lead to long term inflation,” opined user doned_mest_up. “They don’t quite yield the power over the economy that Reddit does, I suppose.”</p><p><blockquote>用户doned_mest_up表示：“是的，对于一个在一年内印刷了33%的货币，然后声称这不会导致长期通货膨胀的实体来说，这是相当大的言论。”“我想，它们并没有像Reddit那样对经济产生影响力。”</blockquote></p><p> But regardless of how Redditors or other retail investors feel, it is worth noting that Brainard’s involvement in the report should not be taken lightly. It has been recently reported thatshe has interviewed for the top job at the Fedand her chairmanship could include a much closer look at retail trading than Chairman Jerome Powell’s has so far.</p><p><blockquote>但无论Redditors或其他散户投资者的感受如何，值得注意的是，布雷纳德在报告中的参与不应掉以轻心。最近有报道称，她已经参加了美联储最高职位的面试，她的主席任期可能会比主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔迄今为止更密切地关注零售交易。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed thinks meme stocks threaten the financial structure<blockquote>美联储认为模因股票威胁金融结构</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed thinks meme stocks threaten the financial structure<blockquote>美联储认为模因股票威胁金融结构</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-10 11:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After some detailed research, the Federal Reserve said on Monday thatit is beginning to worrythat the recent and unprecedented volatility in meme stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment are creating pockets of risk inside markets that could create real problems for the entire U.S. financial system.</p><p><blockquote>经过一些详细研究后，美联储周一表示，它开始担心游戏驿站和AMC院线等模因股票最近前所未有的波动正在市场内制造风险，可能会给整个美国金融体系带来真正的问题。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, many of the self-professed “Apes” who created that volatility reacted to the Fed’s concern about meme stocks in a way best represented by, well, a meme:</p><p><blockquote>周二，许多自称制造波动的“猿类”对美联储对模因股票的担忧做出了反应，模因最能代表这一点：</blockquote></p><p> Based on actual textfrom the Fed’s most recent financial stability report, zero-commission trading apps and investors using social media to coordinate their trades have created a weaponized “echo chamber in which retail investors find themselves communicating most frequently with others with similar interests and views.”</p><p><blockquote>根据美联储最新金融稳定报告的实际文本，零佣金交易应用程序和使用社交媒体协调交易的投资者创造了一个武器化的“回音室”，散户投资者发现自己最频繁地与具有相似兴趣和观点的其他人进行交流。”</blockquote></p><p> In turn, the report found, those like-minded investors create huge waves of volatility and risk that could create real issues for the markets and the financial system in a downturn, especially with so many of these mostly younger retail investors exposing themselves to massive losses using leverage and options to execute their trades.</p><p><blockquote>报告发现，反过来，那些志同道合的投资者制造了巨大的波动和风险，可能会在经济低迷时期给市场和金融体系带来真正的问题，特别是在许多年轻散户投资者面临巨大损失的情况下。使用杠杆和期权执行交易。</blockquote></p><p> But that risk also can be felt elsewhere. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard wrote in a statement accompanying the report that it has already been seen inthe Archegos Capital Management meltdownsaga and could spread.</p><p><blockquote>但这种风险也可以在其他地方感受到。美联储理事莱尔·布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)在报告附带的一份声明中写道，这种情况已经在Archegos Capital Management的崩溃传奇中出现，并且可能会蔓延。</blockquote></p><p> “It highlights the potential for nonbank financial institutions such as hedge funds and other leveraged investors to generate large losses in the financial system,” Brainard wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>布雷纳德周一写道：“这凸显了对冲基金和其他杠杆投资者等非银行金融机构在金融体系中造成巨额损失的可能性。”</blockquote></p><p> But while that warning — whichwasn’t Brainard’s first timeringing the alarm on the topic — might have been of concern for Wall Street, retail investors were unshaken.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这一警告——这并不是布雷纳德第一次就这个话题发出警报——可能会引起华尔街的担忧，但散户投资者并没有动摇。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, many retail investors on social media spent Tuesday telling the Fed that using stocks to upend the existing structure of the financial system, by making hedge funds bleed, has been one of their goals all along, using the volatility to reveal what they see as widespread corruption.</p><p><blockquote>相反，社交媒体上的许多散户投资者周二告诉美联储，利用股票通过让对冲基金流血来颠覆金融体系的现有结构，一直是他们的目标之一，利用波动性来揭示他们所看到的普遍腐败。</blockquote></p><p> After all, it’s been no secret that Reddit’s Apes would like nothing more than to see hedge funds crippled by their own actions. Many individuals also expect the end result of that destruction to be a fairer system in which the little guy can thrive.</p><p><blockquote>毕竟，众所周知，Reddit的猿类最希望看到对冲基金因自己的行为而瘫痪。许多人还期望这种破坏的最终结果是一个更公平的系统，在这个系统中，小人物可以茁壮成长。</blockquote></p><p> “How is it that the ultra rich can basically GAMBLE in the stock market with over-leveraged positions, Dark Pools, insider information, etc. for YEARS and there is nothing to worry about,” read one very popular post on subreddit r/Superstonk.</p><p><blockquote>subreddit r/Superstonk上的一篇非常受欢迎的帖子写道：“为什么超级富豪基本上可以用过度杠杆头寸、暗池、内幕信息等在股市上赌博多年，没有什么可担心的。”</blockquote></p><p> “Yeah, these are pretty big words coming from an entity that printed 33% of money into existence in a year and then claimed that it wouldn’t lead to long term inflation,” opined user doned_mest_up. “They don’t quite yield the power over the economy that Reddit does, I suppose.”</p><p><blockquote>用户doned_mest_up表示：“是的，对于一个在一年内印刷了33%的货币，然后声称这不会导致长期通货膨胀的实体来说，这是相当大的言论。”“我想，它们并没有像Reddit那样对经济产生影响力。”</blockquote></p><p> But regardless of how Redditors or other retail investors feel, it is worth noting that Brainard’s involvement in the report should not be taken lightly. It has been recently reported thatshe has interviewed for the top job at the Fedand her chairmanship could include a much closer look at retail trading than Chairman Jerome Powell’s has so far.</p><p><blockquote>但无论Redditors或其他散户投资者的感受如何，值得注意的是，布雷纳德在报告中的参与不应掉以轻心。最近有报道称，她已经参加了美联储最高职位的面试，她的主席任期可能会比主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔迄今为止更密切地关注零售交易。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-thinks-meme-stocks-threaten-the-financial-structure-retail-investors-say-thats-kind-of-the-point-11636498740?mod=home-page\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-fed-thinks-meme-stocks-threaten-the-financial-structure-retail-investors-say-thats-kind-of-the-point-11636498740?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156695981","content_text":"After some detailed research, the Federal Reserve said on Monday thatit is beginning to worrythat the recent and unprecedented volatility in meme stocks like GameStop and AMC Entertainment are creating pockets of risk inside markets that could create real problems for the entire U.S. financial system.\nOn Tuesday, many of the self-professed “Apes” who created that volatility reacted to the Fed’s concern about meme stocks in a way best represented by, well, a meme:\nBased on actual textfrom the Fed’s most recent financial stability report, zero-commission trading apps and investors using social media to coordinate their trades have created a weaponized “echo chamber in which retail investors find themselves communicating most frequently with others with similar interests and views.”\nIn turn, the report found, those like-minded investors create huge waves of volatility and risk that could create real issues for the markets and the financial system in a downturn, especially with so many of these mostly younger retail investors exposing themselves to massive losses using leverage and options to execute their trades.\nBut that risk also can be felt elsewhere. Fed Gov. Lael Brainard wrote in a statement accompanying the report that it has already been seen inthe Archegos Capital Management meltdownsaga and could spread.\n“It highlights the potential for nonbank financial institutions such as hedge funds and other leveraged investors to generate large losses in the financial system,” Brainard wrote on Monday.\nBut while that warning — whichwasn’t Brainard’s first timeringing the alarm on the topic — might have been of concern for Wall Street, retail investors were unshaken.\nInstead, many retail investors on social media spent Tuesday telling the Fed that using stocks to upend the existing structure of the financial system, by making hedge funds bleed, has been one of their goals all along, using the volatility to reveal what they see as widespread corruption.\nAfter all, it’s been no secret that Reddit’s Apes would like nothing more than to see hedge funds crippled by their own actions. Many individuals also expect the end result of that destruction to be a fairer system in which the little guy can thrive.\n“How is it that the ultra rich can basically GAMBLE in the stock market with over-leveraged positions, Dark Pools, insider information, etc. for YEARS and there is nothing to worry about,” read one very popular post on subreddit r/Superstonk.\n“Yeah, these are pretty big words coming from an entity that printed 33% of money into existence in a year and then claimed that it wouldn’t lead to long term inflation,” opined user doned_mest_up. “They don’t quite yield the power over the economy that Reddit does, I suppose.”\nBut regardless of how Redditors or other retail investors feel, it is worth noting that Brainard’s involvement in the report should not be taken lightly. It has been recently reported thatshe has interviewed for the top job at the Fedand her chairmanship could include a much closer look at retail trading than Chairman Jerome Powell’s has so far.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842061922,"gmtCreate":1636121035853,"gmtModify":1636121036042,"author":{"id":"4088945193415610","authorId":"4088945193415610","name":"judyspt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28075c7d730eb01e7fab4597684478f4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088945193415610","authorIdStr":"4088945193415610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bubble going to burst soon. How many people will get burn?","listText":"Bubble going to burst soon. How many people will get burn?","text":"Bubble going to burst soon. How many people will get burn?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842061922","repostId":"1180620689","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180620689","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636112077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180620689?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180620689","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r","content":"<p>Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote></p><p> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师称这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote></p><p> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.</p><p><blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told <i>Barron’s</i> he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote></p><p> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote></p><p> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote></p><p> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.</p><p><blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 19:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote></p><p> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师称这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote></p><p> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.</p><p><blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told <i>Barron’s</i> he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote></p><p> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote></p><p> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote></p><p> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.</p><p><blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180620689","content_text":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.\nHis argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.\nTesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.\nToday, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.\n“The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.\nTrainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.\nTo be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his goal for EVs to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.\nThere are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.\nJonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.\nBut if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.\nRecently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.\nLonger-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.\n“Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.\nHis arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.\nThe bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.\nTime will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842060081,"gmtCreate":1636120924712,"gmtModify":1636120982366,"author":{"id":"4088945193415610","authorId":"4088945193415610","name":"judyspt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28075c7d730eb01e7fab4597684478f4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088945193415610","authorIdStr":"4088945193415610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"True","listText":"True","text":"True","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842060081","repostId":"1180620689","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1180620689","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636112077,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180620689?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180620689","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-r","content":"<p>Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote></p><p> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师称这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote></p><p> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.</p><p><blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told <i>Barron’s</i> he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote></p><p> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote></p><p> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote></p><p> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.</p><p><blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is Overvalued by $1 Trillion, Analyst Says. We Looked at the Math.<blockquote>分析师表示，特斯拉股票被高估了1万亿美元。我们看了数学。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-05 19:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的市值最近远远超过1万亿美元，但独立投资研究公司New Constructs认为，该公司的估值被高估了约1万亿美元。该公司首席执行官David Trainer表示，特斯拉股价可能会下跌88%，至每股约150美元。</blockquote></p><p> His argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点主要基于数学，这并不是特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）投资者必须权衡的第一个极端熊市或牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在过去一个月上涨了约57%，在周四下午上涨1.3%后，周五盘前交易中几乎没有变化，而标准普尔500指数上涨0.4%，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌0.1%。强劲的第三季度交付量、盈利以及向汽车租赁公司赫兹(HTZZ)出售10万辆汽车，使该股股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Today, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉的身价约为1.2万亿美元——一位培训师称这个数字毫无意义。特斯拉没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer在周四的一份报告中写道：“1.2万亿美元的估值意味着特斯拉拥有整个全球乘用电动汽车市场的118%，到2030年利润将超过苹果[AAPL]。”他的工作着眼于公司必须实现什么样的销售额和收益才能达到那么高的价值。</blockquote></p><p> Trainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote>Trainer认为，特斯拉必须在2030年销售近3100万辆汽车才能证明当前估值的合理性。根据国际能源署的数据，这超过了他对整个行业产量的预期。IEA 2021年电动汽车展望的基本情景预计，到本世纪末，全球电动汽车年销量约为2800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his <a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">goal for EVs</a> to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，IEA的报告是在四月份发布的，当时许多汽车制造商承诺在汽车电气化和电池产能上投入数十亿美元。八月，乔·拜登总统宣布了他的<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-musk-biden-ev-stock-51628202850\" target=\"_blank\">电动汽车的目标</a>到2030年占新车销量的50%。IEA的报告包括了到2030年全球每年销售约4700万辆电动汽车的最佳情景。</blockquote></p><p> There are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.</p><p><blockquote>当然，也有看好特斯拉的人，他们中的大多数人不相信特斯拉到2030年每年会售出3100万辆汽车。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的亚当·乔纳斯(Adam Jonas)将该股评级为买入，目标价为1,200美元，预计届时年销量约为800万辆。</blockquote></p><p> Jonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.</p><p><blockquote>Jonas认为，特斯拉将比传统汽车制造商更有利可图。但Trainer假设特斯拉的营业利润率将与通用汽车(GM)持平。他表示，特斯拉售出3100万辆汽车，这可能意味着2030年营业利润将达到1310亿美元，高于苹果目前超过1000亿美元的收入。</blockquote></p><p> But if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.</p><p><blockquote>但Trainer表示，如果Jonas对特斯拉2030年销售800万辆汽车的看涨期权是正确的，假设Elon Musk的公司仅与通用8.5%的税后净营业利润率相当，那么每年将产生约300亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Recently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.</p><p><blockquote>当然，最近，特斯拉的一些利润率一直处于行业领先地位，考虑到这些汽车的受欢迎程度以及该公司没有其老竞争对手面临的养老金义务，这并不奇怪。第三季度毛利率超过通用汽车、福特汽车(F)和大众汽车(VOW3.Germany)等。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told <i>Barron’s</i> he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Trainer表示，长期利润率很难预测<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为他的假设是公平的。它们取决于软件销售（所有汽车制造商都提供可以通过订阅出售的软件功能）以及电池成本等因素。</blockquote></p><p> “Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“综合起来：特斯拉提供的风险/回报很差，”特雷纳写道。</blockquote></p><p> His arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.</p><p><blockquote>他的论点不太可能动摇许多关注该股的多头。有14名分析师，几乎占彭博社44条赛道的三分之一，他们的目标价对特斯拉的估值为1万亿美元或以上。</blockquote></p><p> The bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.</p><p><blockquote>看涨者认为，特斯拉是电动汽车的领导者，在可预见的未来，其销量和产量将以平均每年50%的速度增长。他们还相信电动汽车将比传统汽车更有利可图，特斯拉将保持其成本领先地位。许多看涨者还认为，特斯拉的储电业务，加上如果成功开发自动驾驶汽车，它可能推出的机器人出租车业务，将产生可观的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Time will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.</p><p><blockquote>时间会证明谁是对的。鉴于特斯拉的强劲业绩，公牛队这些天感觉很好。空头们目瞪口呆地看着该股的估值，该估值基本上与全球所有传统汽车制造商的估值总和相当。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-overvalued-1-trillion-51636053056?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180620689","content_text":"Tesla‘s market capitalization recently moved well past $1 trillion, but the independent investment-research firm New Constructs believes the company is overvalued by roughly $1 trillion of that. The firm’s CEO, David Trainer, says Tesla shares could fall as much as 88%, to roughly $150 a share.\nHis argument, which isn’t the first extreme bear or bull case Tesla (ticker: TSLA) investors have had to weigh, is mainly based on math.\nTesla stock, which has risen about 57% over the past month, was little changed in premarket trading Friday after gaining up 1.3% Thursday afternoon, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished off 0.1%. Strong third-quarter deliveries, earnings, and a sale of 100,000 vehicles to the rental-car company Hertz (HTZZ) have sent the stock through the roof.\nToday, Tesla is worth roughly $1.2 trillion–a figure Trainer says makes no sense. Tesla didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.\n“The $1.2 trillion valuation implies Tesla owns 118% of the entire global passenger EV market and becomes more profitable than Apple [AAPL] by 2030,” wrote Trainer in a Thursday report. His work looked at what kind of sales and earnings the company would have to achieve to be worth that much.\nTrainer believes Tesla would have to sell almost 31 million vehicles in 2030 to justify the current valuation. That is more than he expects the entire industry to produce, based on figures from the International Energy Agency. The base case in the IEA’s 2021 outlook for electric vehicles projects annual global sales of about 28 million EVs at the end of the decade.\nTo be sure, that IEA report was published in April, before many auto makers committed to spending billions of dollars on vehicle electrification and battery-production capacity. It was in August that President Joe Biden announced his goal for EVs to account for 50% of new-car sales by 2030. And the IEA report includes a best-case scenario with about 47 million EVs sold around the world annually by 2030.\nThere are, of course, Tesla bulls, and most of them don’t believe Tesla is going to sell 31 million cars a year by 2030. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas, who rates the stock at Buy and has a $1,200 price target for shares, predicts annual sales of about 8 million units by then.\nJonas believes Tesla will be more profitable than traditional auto makers. But Trainer assumes that Tesla will have operating profit margins in line with those of General Motors (GM). With 31 million vehicles sold, that might mean Tesla earns $131 billion in 2030 operating profit, higher than the $100 billion-plus Apple is pulling in now, he said.\nBut if Jonas’s call for Tesla to sell 8 million vehicles in 2030 is correct, Trainer said, that would yield earnings of about $30 billion annually, assuming Elon Musk’s company only matches GM’s net operating after-tax profit margin of 8.5%.\nRecently, of course, some of Tesla’s profit margins have been industry-leading, which is no surprise given the popularity of the vehicles and the fact that the company doesn’t have the pension obligations its older rivals face. Third-quarter gross margins exceeded GM’s,Ford Motor‘s (F), and Volkswagen’s (VOW3. Germany), to name a few.\nLonger-term margins are hard to predict, though Trainer told Barron’s he thinks his assumption is fair. They depend on factors such as software sales—all auto makers are offering software-enabled features that can be sold on subscriptions—as well as battery costs.\n“Putting it all together: Tesla provides poor risk/reward,” Trainer wrote.\nHis arguments are unlikely to sway the many bulls who follow the stock. There are 14 analysts, almost one-third of the 44 Bloomberg tracks, with target prices that value Tesla at $1 trillion or more.\nThe bulls believe Tesla is the EV leader and will increase its sales and production volume at 50% a year on average for the foreseeable future. They also believe EVs will be more profitable than traditional vehicles and that Tesla will maintain its cost leadership. Many bulls also believe that Tesla’s power-storage business, plus a robotaxi operation it could launch if it succeeds in developing self-driving cars, will generate significant sales.\nTime will tell who is right. The bulls are feeling good these days given Tesla’s strong results. And the bears are staring agape at the stock’s valuation, which essentially matches all of the world’s traditional auto makers combined.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1784,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854363010,"gmtCreate":1635420378124,"gmtModify":1635421283146,"author":{"id":"4088945193415610","authorId":"4088945193415610","name":"judyspt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28075c7d730eb01e7fab4597684478f4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088945193415610","authorIdStr":"4088945193415610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/854332882?invite=6D344V&lang=en_US","listText":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/854332882?invite=6D344V&lang=en_US","text":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/post/854332882?invite=6D344V&lang=en_US","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854363010","repostId":"854332882","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":854332882,"gmtCreate":1635418468342,"gmtModify":1635421286487,"author":{"id":"36992157811200","authorId":"36992157811200","name":"老虎国际","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/801219a1b6ce93d3dd574afc3dcc9be9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36992157811200","authorIdStr":"36992157811200"},"themes":[],"title":"【声明】","htmlText":"近日注意到有关媒体报道，感谢大家对老虎的关注，老虎集团一直视合法合规运营为集团的生命线，我们积极和全球的监管机构保持沟通，坚守合规底线，服从各级监管要求。 老虎证券和其他美国、中国香港券商业务模式一样，严格遵守全球各地监管要求，我们并没有任何法律合规上的变化和创新，只是通过中国科技力量提升用户体验。目前，我们在中国香港地区、新加坡、新西兰、澳大利亚、美国等多地持有证券牌照，80%以上的增量入金客户来自海外，我们始终严格遵守相关的监管要求，保障客户资产安全。","listText":"近日注意到有关媒体报道，感谢大家对老虎的关注，老虎集团一直视合法合规运营为集团的生命线，我们积极和全球的监管机构保持沟通，坚守合规底线，服从各级监管要求。 老虎证券和其他美国、中国香港券商业务模式一样，严格遵守全球各地监管要求，我们并没有任何法律合规上的变化和创新，只是通过中国科技力量提升用户体验。目前，我们在中国香港地区、新加坡、新西兰、澳大利亚、美国等多地持有证券牌照，80%以上的增量入金客户来自海外，我们始终严格遵守相关的监管要求，保障客户资产安全。","text":"近日注意到有关媒体报道，感谢大家对老虎的关注，老虎集团一直视合法合规运营为集团的生命线，我们积极和全球的监管机构保持沟通，坚守合规底线，服从各级监管要求。 老虎证券和其他美国、中国香港券商业务模式一样，严格遵守全球各地监管要求，我们并没有任何法律合规上的变化和创新，只是通过中国科技力量提升用户体验。目前，我们在中国香港地区、新加坡、新西兰、澳大利亚、美国等多地持有证券牌照，80%以上的增量入金客户来自海外，我们始终严格遵守相关的监管要求，保障客户资产安全。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854332882","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853586416,"gmtCreate":1634824432278,"gmtModify":1634825702201,"author":{"id":"4088945193415610","authorId":"4088945193415610","name":"judyspt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28075c7d730eb01e7fab4597684478f4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088945193415610","authorIdStr":"4088945193415610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>fair value for sklz should be $19","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKLZ\">$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$</a>fair value for sklz should be $19","text":"$Skillz Inc(SKLZ)$fair value for sklz should be $19","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853586416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":850981544,"gmtCreate":1634545292504,"gmtModify":1634545853343,"author":{"id":"4088945193415610","authorId":"4088945193415610","name":"judyspt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28075c7d730eb01e7fab4597684478f4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088945193415610","authorIdStr":"4088945193415610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>soon someone who wants to take profit will come out with the news that tiger is oversold, buy!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>soon someone who wants to take profit will come out with the news that tiger is oversold, buy!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$soon someone who wants to take profit will come out with the news that tiger is oversold, buy!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850981544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}