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- VannessyeapVannessyeap
  ·2021-07-22
  超
  开盘：法拉第未来首日涨超22%，滴滴跌超7%
  7月22日，美股三大指数基本平开，道指跌0.05%，标普500指数涨0.07%，纳指涨0.17%。法拉第未来（FFIE）美股上市首日涨超22%，总市值达54亿美元。贾跃亭现身上市敲钟现场。滴滴美股
  开盘：法拉第未来首日涨超22%，滴滴跌超7%
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- VannessyeapVannessyeap
  ·2021-07-22
  [暗中观察]
  美国的供应短缺何时可以缓解？
  东吴宏观预计，美国大部分的供应短缺将在今年年底得到缓解，但通胀恢复至疫情前水平存在挑战，因此通胀持续时间可能比美联储预计的要更长。疫情爆发以来全球供应链受到冲击，供给短缺和成本压力共同作用下，近期
  美国的供应短缺何时可以缓解？
  1,245 评论
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21:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"开盘：法拉第未来首日涨超22%，滴滴跌超7%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138338643","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"7月22日，美股三大指数基本平开，道指跌0.05%，标普500指数涨0.07%，纳指涨0.17%。\n法拉第未来（FFIE）美股上市首日涨超22%，总市值达54亿美元。贾跃亭现身上市敲钟现场。\n滴滴美股","content":"<p>7月22日，美股三大指数基本平开，道指跌0.05%，标普500指数涨0.07%，纳指涨0.17%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb63859800e23852faa83b133a11fb9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>法拉第未来（FFIE）美股上市首日涨超22%，总市值达54亿美元。贾跃亭现身上市敲钟现场。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>美股开盘跌超7%。股价刷新历史新低，上市以来市值蒸发超150亿美元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KALU\">凯撒铝业</a>跌4%，第二季度调整每股收益不及预期。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCC.U\">Churchill Capital</a> IV涨超3%，公司股东将就电动汽车公司Lucid Motors的合并事项进行投票。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>跌4.3%，第三季度营收指引区间中点低于分析师预期。</p>\n<p>医疗设备公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NURO\">NeuroMetrix</a>涨82.11%，该股此前2个交易日累计上涨超300%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DQ\">大全新能源</a>涨13.38%，报90.00美元。大全新能源运营子公司新疆大全能源(688303.SH)今日在科创板上市，每股定价为21.49元，上市首日收涨184.36%报61.11元，市值1176亿元。上市后，大全新能源持有新疆大全79.57%的股份。</p>\n<p>区块链概念股走强，SOS涨14.29%，Bit Digital涨3.52%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>开盘：法拉第未来首日涨超22%，滴滴跌超7%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n开盘：法拉第未来首日涨超22%，滴滴跌超7%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-22 21:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>7月22日，美股三大指数基本平开，道指跌0.05%，标普500指数涨0.07%，纳指涨0.17%。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bb63859800e23852faa83b133a11fb9\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>法拉第未来（FFIE）美股上市首日涨超22%，总市值达54亿美元。贾跃亭现身上市敲钟现场。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>美股开盘跌超7%。股价刷新历史新低，上市以来市值蒸发超150亿美元。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KALU\">凯撒铝业</a>跌4%，第二季度调整每股收益不及预期。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCC.U\">Churchill Capital</a> IV涨超3%，公司股东将就电动汽车公司Lucid Motors的合并事项进行投票。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TXN\">德州仪器</a>跌4.3%，第三季度营收指引区间中点低于分析师预期。</p>\n<p>医疗设备公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NURO\">NeuroMetrix</a>涨82.11%，该股此前2个交易日累计上涨超300%。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DQ\">大全新能源</a>涨13.38%，报90.00美元。大全新能源运营子公司新疆大全能源(688303.SH)今日在科创板上市，每股定价为21.49元，上市首日收涨184.36%报61.11元，市值1176亿元。上市后，大全新能源持有新疆大全79.57%的股份。</p>\n<p>区块链概念股走强，SOS涨14.29%，Bit Digital涨3.52%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff6e3231d788a5a6d28cf7965385cc7f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138338643","content_text":"7月22日，美股三大指数基本平开，道指跌0.05%，标普500指数涨0.07%，纳指涨0.17%。\n法拉第未来（FFIE）美股上市首日涨超22%，总市值达54亿美元。贾跃亭现身上市敲钟现场。\n滴滴美股开盘跌超7%。股价刷新历史新低，上市以来市值蒸发超150亿美元。\n凯撒铝业跌4%，第二季度调整每股收益不及预期。\nChurchill Capital IV涨超3%，公司股东将就电动汽车公司Lucid Motors的合并事项进行投票。\n德州仪器跌4.3%，第三季度营收指引区间中点低于分析师预期。\n医疗设备公司NeuroMetrix涨82.11%，该股此前2个交易日累计上涨超300%。\n大全新能源涨13.38%，报90.00美元。大全新能源运营子公司新疆大全能源(688303.SH)今日在科创板上市，每股定价为21.49元，上市首日收涨184.36%报61.11元，市值1176亿元。上市后，大全新能源持有新疆大全79.57%的股份。\n区块链概念股走强，SOS涨14.29%，Bit Digital涨3.52%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DIDI":0.9,"FFIE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":949,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172647642,"gmtCreate":1626961024786,"gmtModify":1633769364148,"author":{"id":"4089082136453470","authorId":"4089082136453470","name":"Vannessyeap","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1bc5f8b60b06c0bc4fb0c3a01cf3ffa","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089082136453470","idStr":"4089082136453470"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","listText":"[暗中观察]&nbsp;","text":"[暗中观察]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172647642","repostId":"2153990676","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153990676","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626959231,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2153990676?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 21:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国的供应短缺何时可以缓解？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153990676","media":"川阅全球宏观","summary":"东吴宏观预计，美国大部分的供应短缺将在今年年底得到缓解，但通胀恢复至疫情前水平存在挑战，因此通胀持续时间可能比美联储预计的要更长。\n\n疫情爆发以来全球供应链受到冲击，供给短缺和成本压力共同作用下，近期","content":"<blockquote>\n 东吴宏观预计，美国大部分的供应短缺将在今年年底得到缓解，但通胀恢复至疫情前水平存在挑战，因此通胀持续时间可能比美联储预计的要更长。\n</blockquote>\n<p>疫情爆发以来全球供应链受到冲击，供给短缺和成本压力共同作用下，近期美国商品价格抬升，通胀持续超预期。然而鲍威尔等美联储官员却表示当前美国的高通胀是“暂时的”，并表示通胀在未来几个月将持续温和上升，随后才会趋于平缓。我们认为未来美国通胀回归正常水平的时间很大程度上取决于供应短缺的缓解情况。</p>\n<p>疫情导致美国供货商交付时间延长，供应短缺下美国核心CPI跳升（图1）。广泛的供应链中断问题导致许多美国企业正经历着几十年来最长的交货时间。根据美国统计局2021/7/5至2021/7/11期间的小企业脉冲调查，38.2%的小企业报告了美国国内供应商的延迟，延迟集中在制造业、建筑业和贸易部门。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/00d5b6f06cd4ee68e7e712c169c526dc\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>从存货的角度来看，美国企业未能及时补充库存导致供给不足。新冠疫情爆发后，企业大量商品滞销，库存可销天数短暂大幅上升，经济复苏下需求回暖，但企业尚未能将库存恢复至疫情前水平，导致库存可销天数大幅下降至近30年低位（图2）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffed9a8b82a3a6157b8a44476bcf0836\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>芯片短缺造成多个行业断供，并推高以二手车为代表的商品价格。汽车行业受半导体短缺冲击较大（图3），主要原因在于制造商低估了市场需求（部分来自于拜登的财政刺激计划），疫情初期，汽车制造商预期需求疲软，大量取消了半导体订单，而半导体交货期长且正经历来自电子等其他行业的需求增长，导致疫情后汽车行业的需求无法被满足。此外，汽车半导体供应链极为分散（涉及多个国家和公司），汽车制造商很难追踪瓶颈的根源，使供应问题复杂化。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2d93d5598e5c540635a7bbec3d5ec2e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>劳动力供给紧俏也导致供应短缺，推高木材等原材料价格。美国企业的招聘存在挑战，难以找到合格的招聘者（图4和图5），尤其在低薪和临时劳动者方面。美联储褐皮书表示，商业货运司机和配送司机尤其短缺，制造业等行业的工资上涨压力加剧（图6），难以招聘及留住员工。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31484daa15db1f07a67e74c7ec7ef4cc\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e42915fdbcfc11166d580d67f29b03\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>以木材为例：木材为美国独栋房主要的框架材料，疫情以来独栋房需求高涨，但木材却受到运输限制。疫情减少了司机数量并影响铁路运输，使得工厂难以将木材运送至经销商。</p>\n<p>我们预计大部分的供应短缺将在今年年底得到缓解。</p>\n<p>制造商可以通过提高产能利用率来缓解供给紧缺。参考疫情初期的卫生纸短缺，卫生纸制造商将原本近90%的产能利用率提升至近100%，通过重启闲置的机器、减少机器停机时间等方式，在未改变机器成本的情况下增加了纸张供给。当前美国制造业多数子行业的产能利用率未达到近十年峰值，仍具备生产弹性（图7）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/184180669dcac586072d37130928ae3b\" tg-width=\"697\" tg-height=\"432\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>部分指标显示供应链短缺有缓解迹象：6月二手车价格指数回落、二季度木材价格见顶回落（图8和图9）。根据NAHB今年7月的报告，软木木材产品价格上涨对新建独栋住宅平均价格的影响从4月份的35,872美元降至7月份的29,833美元。此外，纽约、费城和德克萨斯州的联储银行对未来6个月制造商交付时间的预期显示，当前的供应链问题将在近半年内得以缓解（图10）。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5ba81b52f38c68af15924a8eeade3c2\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"421\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/970272bb20622d66c6604c14c931c7ad\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/855ff5b527ab3914a1eb594f12c02bac\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>芯片供给短缺方面，我们认同表1中汽车制造商及相关供应商的看法：二季度是芯片供应短缺的高峰，下半年部分改善，但紧缺形势将持续至2022年。原因有三：①需求强劲，在芯片产能不断被扩充的情况下，近20年产能利用率持续处高位，2020年高达88%（图11）。②前期芯片短缺积累了大量订单。③资本开支需要近一年的建设和启动期，当前对芯片产能的投资在短期无法缓解供应。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86968ef73a721967af2de7e4b1e2c1fe\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"345\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider20210722/61/w1080h581/20210722/ffef-8f6de56d7cdbf4e910fef71ad0f04989.png/w720fin.jpg\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>总而言之，我们认为通胀恢复至疫情前水平存在挑战。虽然大部分供应短缺在年底能得到缓解，但芯片行业的供给紧缺要持续至明年，此外新冠病毒变异等外部风险较大，供应链恢复的不确定性较强，因此通胀持续时间可能比美联储预计的要更长。</p>\n<p>风险提示：新冠变异毒株传播失控，美联储过快收紧货币政策。</p>","source":"lsy1582083733592","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国的供应短缺何时可以缓解？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国的供应短缺何时可以缓解？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 21:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-07-22/doc-ikqcfnca8417809.shtml><strong>川阅全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>东吴宏观预计，美国大部分的供应短缺将在今年年底得到缓解，但通胀恢复至疫情前水平存在挑战，因此通胀持续时间可能比美联储预计的要更长。\n\n疫情爆发以来全球供应链受到冲击，供给短缺和成本压力共同作用下，近期美国商品价格抬升，通胀持续超预期。然而鲍威尔等美联储官员却表示当前美国的高通胀是“暂时的”，并表示通胀在未来几个月将持续温和上升，随后才会趋于平缓。我们认为未来美国通胀回归正常水平的时间很大程度上...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-07-22/doc-ikqcfnca8417809.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c7221d934f1008e531bdf79c8cfe0ee","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","OEX":"标普100","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","QQQ":"纳指100ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2021-07-22/doc-ikqcfnca8417809.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153990676","content_text":"东吴宏观预计，美国大部分的供应短缺将在今年年底得到缓解，但通胀恢复至疫情前水平存在挑战，因此通胀持续时间可能比美联储预计的要更长。\n\n疫情爆发以来全球供应链受到冲击，供给短缺和成本压力共同作用下，近期美国商品价格抬升，通胀持续超预期。然而鲍威尔等美联储官员却表示当前美国的高通胀是“暂时的”，并表示通胀在未来几个月将持续温和上升，随后才会趋于平缓。我们认为未来美国通胀回归正常水平的时间很大程度上取决于供应短缺的缓解情况。\n疫情导致美国供货商交付时间延长，供应短缺下美国核心CPI跳升（图1）。广泛的供应链中断问题导致许多美国企业正经历着几十年来最长的交货时间。根据美国统计局2021/7/5至2021/7/11期间的小企业脉冲调查，38.2%的小企业报告了美国国内供应商的延迟，延迟集中在制造业、建筑业和贸易部门。\n\n从存货的角度来看，美国企业未能及时补充库存导致供给不足。新冠疫情爆发后，企业大量商品滞销，库存可销天数短暂大幅上升，经济复苏下需求回暖，但企业尚未能将库存恢复至疫情前水平，导致库存可销天数大幅下降至近30年低位（图2）。\n\n芯片短缺造成多个行业断供，并推高以二手车为代表的商品价格。汽车行业受半导体短缺冲击较大（图3），主要原因在于制造商低估了市场需求（部分来自于拜登的财政刺激计划），疫情初期，汽车制造商预期需求疲软，大量取消了半导体订单，而半导体交货期长且正经历来自电子等其他行业的需求增长，导致疫情后汽车行业的需求无法被满足。此外，汽车半导体供应链极为分散（涉及多个国家和公司），汽车制造商很难追踪瓶颈的根源，使供应问题复杂化。\n\n劳动力供给紧俏也导致供应短缺，推高木材等原材料价格。美国企业的招聘存在挑战，难以找到合格的招聘者（图4和图5），尤其在低薪和临时劳动者方面。美联储褐皮书表示，商业货运司机和配送司机尤其短缺，制造业等行业的工资上涨压力加剧（图6），难以招聘及留住员工。\n\n以木材为例：木材为美国独栋房主要的框架材料，疫情以来独栋房需求高涨，但木材却受到运输限制。疫情减少了司机数量并影响铁路运输，使得工厂难以将木材运送至经销商。\n我们预计大部分的供应短缺将在今年年底得到缓解。\n制造商可以通过提高产能利用率来缓解供给紧缺。参考疫情初期的卫生纸短缺，卫生纸制造商将原本近90%的产能利用率提升至近100%，通过重启闲置的机器、减少机器停机时间等方式，在未改变机器成本的情况下增加了纸张供给。当前美国制造业多数子行业的产能利用率未达到近十年峰值，仍具备生产弹性（图7）。\n\n部分指标显示供应链短缺有缓解迹象：6月二手车价格指数回落、二季度木材价格见顶回落（图8和图9）。根据NAHB今年7月的报告，软木木材产品价格上涨对新建独栋住宅平均价格的影响从4月份的35,872美元降至7月份的29,833美元。此外，纽约、费城和德克萨斯州的联储银行对未来6个月制造商交付时间的预期显示，当前的供应链问题将在近半年内得以缓解（图10）。\n\n芯片供给短缺方面，我们认同表1中汽车制造商及相关供应商的看法：二季度是芯片供应短缺的高峰，下半年部分改善，但紧缺形势将持续至2022年。原因有三：①需求强劲，在芯片产能不断被扩充的情况下，近20年产能利用率持续处高位，2020年高达88%（图11）。②前期芯片短缺积累了大量订单。③资本开支需要近一年的建设和启动期，当前对芯片产能的投资在短期无法缓解供应。\n\n总而言之，我们认为通胀恢复至疫情前水平存在挑战。虽然大部分供应短缺在年底能得到缓解，但芯片行业的供给紧缺要持续至明年，此外新冠病毒变异等外部风险较大，供应链恢复的不确定性较强，因此通胀持续时间可能比美联储预计的要更长。\n风险提示：新冠变异毒株传播失控，美联储过快收紧货币政策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DDM":0.9,"DJX":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DXD":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UDOW":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}