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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-23
Rebound soon?
An Intrinsic Calculation For Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) Suggests It's 38% Undervalued<blockquote>Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)的内在计算表明其价值被低估了38%</blockquote>
Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Sea
An Intrinsic Calculation For Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) Suggests It's 38% Undervalued<blockquote>Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)的内在计算表明其价值被低估了38%</blockquote>
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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-20
Interesting
非常抱歉,此主贴已删除
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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-20
Interesting
Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票:较高点下跌43%,现在值得买入吗?</blockquote>
Summary Sea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the mar
Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票:较高点下跌43%,现在值得买入吗?</blockquote>
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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-18
Interesting
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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-17
$TOP GLOVE CORPORATION BHD(BVA.SI)$
ggoing to rebound?
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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-16
Interesting
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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-14
$GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.(GFS)$
still correction?
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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-14
Nice sharing
元宇宙这么火,别忘了任天堂
@4207f134:
和元宇宙有关的前景还没有反映在任天堂的股价中。 电子游戏在新冠疫情大流行时期迎来了复兴,但该行业的原始玩家却被甩在了后面。任天堂(NTDOY)的美国存托凭证在2021年下跌了29%。 这家日本电子游戏巨头仍然在制作深受粉丝喜爱的游戏,但投资者今年大部分时间都在寻找那些对“元宇宙”做出重大承诺的公司。(metaverse,指的是能够实现社交互动和商业的虚拟世界。) 这推动了Roblox (RBLX)和英伟达(NVDA)等公司股票今年大幅上涨。Roblox 是一家为游戏玩家提供创建在线世界工具的公司,在最近的一次投资者会议上,它提到了“ metaverse”17次。 Roblox自3月份直接上市以来股价已经上涨了160%。该公司正面临多年的年度亏损,按明年的销售额计算目前市销率为21倍,而任天堂仅为3.5倍。 与此同时,任天堂的发展战略依然很保守。在上个月一份48页的盈利报告中,它没有提到元宇宙,尽管爆款游戏《集合啦!动物森友会》本身就是一个迷你元宇宙。 这款游戏有虚拟货币、服装和在线功能,玩家可以在自己亲自建设的热带岛屿上与朋友互动。自2020年3月发行以来,该游戏已售出近3500万部。 可是和元宇宙有关的前景还没有反映在任天堂的股价中。华尔街预计,在截至明年3月的2022财年,任天堂美国存托凭证的每股收益将为3.74美元,低于2021财年的4.64美元。预计销售额将从162亿美元降至145亿美元,供应链问题和半导体短缺是造成预期降幅的部分原因,这将是六年来的首次下降。 韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)分析师迈克尔·帕切特(Michael Pachter)表示,他认为市场对任天堂Switch游戏机的需求不会下降,该游戏机自2017年上市以来已售出约9300万台。该设备允许玩家通过手持模式和通过电视进行游戏。今年10月,任天堂推出了一款价格更高的机型,配备了
元宇宙这么火,别忘了任天堂
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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-13
Great
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Dalang
Dalang
·
2021-12-13
Sound interesting
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soon?","listText":"Rebound soon?","text":"Rebound soon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698991086","repostId":"1151093531","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1151093531","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640229464,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151093531?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"An Intrinsic Calculation For Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) Suggests It's 38% Undervalued<blockquote>Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)的内在计算表明其价值被低估了38%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151093531","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Sea","content":"<p>Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.</p><p><blockquote>今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,该方法用于通过预测Sea Limited(纽约证券交易所股票代码:SE)的未来现金流,然后将其贴现至当前价值来估计其作为投资机会的吸引力。我们的分析将采用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。在你认为你无法理解它之前,请继续读下去!它实际上比你想象的要简单得多。</blockquote></p><p> Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, theSimply Wall St analysis model heremay be something of interest to you.</p><p><blockquote>公司可以通过多种方式进行估值,因此我们要指出,DCF并不适合所有情况。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里简单的华尔街分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> The method</p><p><blockquote>方法</blockquote></p><p> We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.</p><p><blockquote>我们使用两阶段增长模型,这仅仅意味着我们考虑了公司增长的两个阶段。在初始阶段,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被认为有稳定的增长率。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们从最后一次估计或报告的价值推断之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将放缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早年的增长往往比晚年放缓得更多。</blockquote></p><p> A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900a00b739c53cb9c592a1ff4cb5eaff\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"239\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)</p><p><blockquote>DCF的理念是未来一美元的价值低于今天的一美元,因此我们将这些未来现金流的价值贴现为以今天美元计算的估计价值:(“Est”=Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)</blockquote></p><p> <b>Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)</b>= US$46b</p><p><blockquote><b>10年现金流现值(PVCF)</b>=46b美元</blockquote></p><p> After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.3%.</p><p><blockquote>在计算了最初10年期间未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终值,它占了第一阶段以外的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(2.0%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期相同,我们使用6.3%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现为今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Terminal Value (TV)</b>= FCF2031× (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$13b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.3%– 2.0%) = US$293b</p><p><blockquote><b>终端值(TV)</b>=FCF 2031 ×(1+g)÷(R-G)=13b美元×(1+2.0%)÷(6.3%-2.0%)=2930亿美元</blockquote></p><p> <b>Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)</b>= TV / (1 + r)10= US$293b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= US$159b</p><p><blockquote><b>终值现值(PVTV)</b>=TV/(1+r)10=2930亿美元÷(1+6.3%)10=1590亿美元</blockquote></p><p> The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$204b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$228, the company appears quite good value at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.</p><p><blockquote>总价值是未来十年的现金流加上贴现的最终价值之和,得出总股权价值,在本例中为2040亿美元。为了得到每股的内在价值,我们将其除以已发行股票总数。与目前228美元的股价相比,该公司的价值似乎相当不错,比目前的股价折价38%。但请记住,这只是一个近似的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样——垃圾进,垃圾出。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d031f94f7285b2dd74b50be13b78ca2d\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The assumptions</p><p><blockquote>假设</blockquote></p><p> The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sea as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.</p><p><blockquote>上面的计算非常依赖于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流量。你不必同意这些输入,我建议你自己重做计算,玩玩它们。DCF也不考虑行业可能的周期性,或公司未来的资本要求,因此它不能全面反映公司的潜在业绩。鉴于我们将Sea视为潜在股东,因此使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了6.3%,这是基于1.000的杠杆贝塔值。贝塔值是衡量股票相对于整个市场波动性的指标。我们从全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值中获取贝塔值,限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是稳定业务的合理范围。</blockquote></p><p> Looking Ahead:</p><p><blockquote>展望未来:</blockquote></p><p> Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Sea, we've compiled three further items you should assess:</p><p><blockquote>虽然DCF计算很重要,但它不应该是你在研究一家公司时考虑的唯一指标。DCF模型并不是完美的股票估值工具。最好是应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,产出可能会非常不同。我们能弄清楚为什么公司的交易价格低于内在价值吗?对于Sea,我们还编制了您应该评估的三个项目:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol> <li><b>Risks</b>: To that end, you should be aware of the<b>2 warning signs</b> we've spotted with Sea.</li> <li><b>Future Earnings</b>: How does SE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market?</li> <li><b>Other High Quality Alternatives</b>: Do you like a good all-rounder?</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>风险</b>:为此,您应该了解<b>2警告标志</b>我们发现了大海。</li><li><b>未来收益</b>:与同行和更广泛的市场相比,SE的增长率如何?</li><li><b>其他高质量替代品</b>:你喜欢一个好的全能选手吗?</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>An Intrinsic Calculation For Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) Suggests It's 38% Undervalued<blockquote>Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)的内在计算表明其价值被低估了38%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAn Intrinsic Calculation For Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) Suggests It's 38% Undervalued<blockquote>Sea Limited(NYSE:SE)的内在计算表明其价值被低估了38%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.</p><p><blockquote>今天,我们将简单介绍一种估值方法,该方法用于通过预测Sea Limited(纽约证券交易所股票代码:SE)的未来现金流,然后将其贴现至当前价值来估计其作为投资机会的吸引力。我们的分析将采用贴现现金流(DCF)模型。在你认为你无法理解它之前,请继续读下去!它实际上比你想象的要简单得多。</blockquote></p><p> Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, theSimply Wall St analysis model heremay be something of interest to you.</p><p><blockquote>公司可以通过多种方式进行估值,因此我们要指出,DCF并不适合所有情况。对于那些热衷于学习股票分析的人来说,这里简单的华尔街分析模型可能会让你感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> The method</p><p><blockquote>方法</blockquote></p><p> We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.</p><p><blockquote>我们使用两阶段增长模型,这仅仅意味着我们考虑了公司增长的两个阶段。在初始阶段,公司可能有较高的增长率,而第二阶段通常被认为有稳定的增长率。首先,我们需要估计未来十年的现金流。在可能的情况下,我们使用分析师的估计,但当这些估计不可用时,我们从最后一次估计或报告的价值推断之前的自由现金流(FCF)。我们假设自由现金流萎缩的公司将放缓其萎缩速度,而自由现金流增长的公司在此期间的增长率将放缓。我们这样做是为了反映早年的增长往往比晚年放缓得更多。</blockquote></p><p> A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/900a00b739c53cb9c592a1ff4cb5eaff\" tg-width=\"614\" tg-height=\"239\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">(\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)</p><p><blockquote>DCF的理念是未来一美元的价值低于今天的一美元,因此我们将这些未来现金流的价值贴现为以今天美元计算的估计价值:(“Est”=Simply Wall St估计的FCF增长率)</blockquote></p><p> <b>Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)</b>= US$46b</p><p><blockquote><b>10年现金流现值(PVCF)</b>=46b美元</blockquote></p><p> After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.3%.</p><p><blockquote>在计算了最初10年期间未来现金流的现值后,我们需要计算终值,它占了第一阶段以外的所有未来现金流。出于多种原因,使用了一个非常保守的增长率,不能超过一个国家的GDP增长率。在这种情况下,我们使用10年期政府债券收益率的5年平均值(2.0%)来估计未来的增长。与10年“增长”期相同,我们使用6.3%的权益成本将未来现金流贴现为今天的价值。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Terminal Value (TV)</b>= FCF2031× (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$13b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.3%– 2.0%) = US$293b</p><p><blockquote><b>终端值(TV)</b>=FCF 2031 ×(1+g)÷(R-G)=13b美元×(1+2.0%)÷(6.3%-2.0%)=2930亿美元</blockquote></p><p> <b>Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)</b>= TV / (1 + r)10= US$293b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= US$159b</p><p><blockquote><b>终值现值(PVTV)</b>=TV/(1+r)10=2930亿美元÷(1+6.3%)10=1590亿美元</blockquote></p><p> The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$204b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$228, the company appears quite good value at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.</p><p><blockquote>总价值是未来十年的现金流加上贴现的最终价值之和,得出总股权价值,在本例中为2040亿美元。为了得到每股的内在价值,我们将其除以已发行股票总数。与目前228美元的股价相比,该公司的价值似乎相当不错,比目前的股价折价38%。但请记住,这只是一个近似的估值,就像任何复杂的公式一样——垃圾进,垃圾出。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d031f94f7285b2dd74b50be13b78ca2d\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"380\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The assumptions</p><p><blockquote>假设</blockquote></p><p> The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sea as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.</p><p><blockquote>上面的计算非常依赖于两个假设。第一个是贴现率,另一个是现金流量。你不必同意这些输入,我建议你自己重做计算,玩玩它们。DCF也不考虑行业可能的周期性,或公司未来的资本要求,因此它不能全面反映公司的潜在业绩。鉴于我们将Sea视为潜在股东,因此使用股权成本作为贴现率,而不是占债务的资本成本(或加权平均资本成本,WACC)。在此计算中,我们使用了6.3%,这是基于1.000的杠杆贝塔值。贝塔值是衡量股票相对于整个市场波动性的指标。我们从全球可比公司的行业平均贝塔值中获取贝塔值,限制在0.8到2.0之间,这是稳定业务的合理范围。</blockquote></p><p> Looking Ahead:</p><p><blockquote>展望未来:</blockquote></p><p> Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Sea, we've compiled three further items you should assess:</p><p><blockquote>虽然DCF计算很重要,但它不应该是你在研究一家公司时考虑的唯一指标。DCF模型并不是完美的股票估值工具。最好是应用不同的案例和假设,看看它们会如何影响公司的估值。如果一家公司以不同的速度增长,或者如果其股本成本或无风险利率急剧变化,产出可能会非常不同。我们能弄清楚为什么公司的交易价格低于内在价值吗?对于Sea,我们还编制了您应该评估的三个项目:</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol> <li><b>Risks</b>: To that end, you should be aware of the<b>2 warning signs</b> we've spotted with Sea.</li> <li><b>Future Earnings</b>: How does SE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market?</li> <li><b>Other High Quality Alternatives</b>: Do you like a good all-rounder?</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>风险</b>:为此,您应该了解<b>2警告标志</b>我们发现了大海。</li><li><b>未来收益</b>:与同行和更广泛的市场相比,SE的增长率如何?</li><li><b>其他高质量替代品</b>:你喜欢一个好的全能选手吗?</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/an-intrinsic-calculation-for-sea-limited-nyse%3Ase-suggests-its-38-undervalued\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/an-intrinsic-calculation-for-sea-limited-nyse%3Ase-suggests-its-38-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151093531","content_text":"Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Sea Limited (NYSE:SE) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.\nCompanies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, theSimply Wall St analysis model heremay be something of interest to you.\nThe method\nWe're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.\nA DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:(\"Est\" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)\nPresent Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$46b\nAfter calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.0%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 6.3%.\nTerminal Value (TV)= FCF2031× (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$13b× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (6.3%– 2.0%) = US$293b\nPresent Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$293b÷ ( 1 + 6.3%)10= US$159b\nThe total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$204b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$228, the company appears quite good value at a 38% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.\nThe assumptions\nThe calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Sea as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.3%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.000. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.\nLooking Ahead:\nWhilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Sea, we've compiled three further items you should assess:\n\nRisks: To that end, you should be aware of the2 warning signs we've spotted with Sea.\nFuture Earnings: How does SE's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market?\nOther High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693616368,"gmtCreate":1640012601205,"gmtModify":1640012601790,"author":{"id":"4093059407761700","authorId":"4093059407761700","name":"Dalang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9884b0395e7dd457fb8aa5df567c286c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093059407761700","idStr":"4093059407761700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693616368","repostId":"2192181330","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2895,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693135275,"gmtCreate":1639983676498,"gmtModify":1639983704887,"author":{"id":"4093059407761700","authorId":"4093059407761700","name":"Dalang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9884b0395e7dd457fb8aa5df567c286c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093059407761700","idStr":"4093059407761700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693135275","repostId":"1109541249","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1109541249","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639972523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109541249?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票:较高点下跌43%,现在值得买入吗?</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109541249","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the mar","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the market.</li> <li>However, we believe that the fundamental thesis on its rapid growth remains robust.</li> <li>We discuss why investors should capitalize on its recent significant correction to add exposure.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于成长型股票在市场上大量抛售,Sea Limited的股票最近遭受重创。</li><li>然而,我们认为其快速增长的基本论点仍然强劲。</li><li>我们讨论了为什么投资者应该利用其最近的重大调整来增加风险敞口。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited(NYSE:SE) stock is one of our highest conviction growth stocks that has been severely battered over the last month. Since its recent all-time high (ATH) in October, its price has dropped by a dramatic 43%. Many reasons have been presented on why the stock has fallen. We exhort investors not to read too much into them. We believe nothing material has changed from its fundamental thesis. The stock has had a remarkable run in 2021 relative to its gaming peers or e-tailer peers. Therefore, profit-taking of this extent should not be surprising as fear struck growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited(纽约证券交易所股票代码:SE)股票是我们最有信心的成长型股票之一,但在上个月遭受了严重打击。自10月份创下历史新高(ATH)以来,其价格已大幅下跌43%。关于该股下跌的原因有很多。我们敦促投资者不要对他们解读太多。我们认为它的基本论点没有任何实质性的改变。相对于游戏同行或电子零售商同行,该股在2021年表现出色。因此,随着恐惧袭击成长型股票,这种程度的获利了结并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the recent significant correction in growth stocks across the market has also hit SE stock hard. But, we are not concerned. Significant volatility will always be a factor influencing the performance of growth stocks like SE in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>此外,近期全市场成长股的大幅回调也重创了SE股。但是,我们并不担心。短期内,大幅波动始终是影响SE等成长型股票表现的一个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, we observed that the consensus target price on SE stock had been revised upwards since its FQ3 report card. Moreover, the gap between its price target and its current stock price has been greater than its last significant correction in April/May.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是,我们观察到,自第三季度成绩单以来,SE股票的共识目标价已向上修正。此外,其目标价与当前股价之间的差距已大于4月/5月上次大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> Our internal DCF valuation model also points to a stock that is now significantly undervalued. Thanks to the market's myopia, we have been presented with another fantastic opportunity since April/May to add SE stock with great fervor again.</p><p><blockquote>我们的内部DCF估值模型也指向一只目前被严重低估的股票。由于市场的短视,自4月/5月以来,我们又迎来了一个绝佳的机会,再次以极大的热情增持SE股票。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss why we think investors should not miss this incredible opportunity to add exposure to an outstanding growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论了为什么我们认为投资者不应该错过这个增加对优秀成长型股票投资的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SE Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SE股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c191d1f0f6a10e392845cdbda1264aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock YTD performance (as of 17 December'21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票年初至今表现(截至21年12月17日)。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result of the significant correction recently, SE stock's YTD return has dropped to 6.9%, thus underperforming the market. Notably, its YTD gain was as high as 80% in October/early November. Despite that, the stock is still outperforming its e-tailer and gaming peers, as shown above.</p><p><blockquote>由于近期大幅调整,SE股票年初至今的回报率已降至6.9%,表现逊于大盘。值得注意的是,10月/11月初,其年初至今涨幅高达80%。尽管如此,该股的表现仍然优于电子零售商和游戏同行,如上所示。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sea Stock Estimates Have Consistently Been Revised Upwards</b></p><p><blockquote><b>海洋库存估计不断上调</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8555128e2a30e924dd6c2dd162a27eea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited修正后的收入平均共识估计。数据来源:S&P Capital IQ、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly observe that the company's revenue consensus estimates for FY21-23 have consistently been revised upwards over the last five months. These revisions lend credence to the robust growth prospects of the company over the next two years. Notably, Sea Limited's revenue is estimated to increase at a phenomenal CAGR of 42.8% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以很快观察到,该公司对2021-23财年的收入共识预期在过去五个月中一直在上调。这些修正为公司未来两年的强劲增长前景增添了信心。值得注意的是,Sea Limited的收入预计将通过2023财年以42.8%的惊人复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> There were concerns over the growth rates of its Garena gaming arm in its FQ3 report card.We also explained in our previous article that Sea Limited has clearly explained that investors should expect normalization in Garena's growth after two spectacular years. However, its monetization capability continues to dazzle. Therefore, we are confident that Garena can continue its robust monetization strategies moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>人们对其第三季度成绩单中Garena游戏部门的增长率感到担忧。我们在上一篇文章中还解释说,Sea Limited已经明确解释说,投资者应该预计Garena的增长在经历了两年的辉煌之后将正常化。然而,其变现能力继续令人眼花缭乱。因此,我们相信Garena能够继续其稳健的货币化战略。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, data from Sensor Tower's recent gaming statistics continue to point to sturdy performance from its Free Fire game. It continues to be ranked among the top ten mobile games in terms of overall gaming revenue in November. Moreover, it's also ranked#2 in overall downloadsacross both the App Store and Google Play. Notably, it's also among eight games globally whose annual revenue crossed $1B as of 14 December. Therefore, we think the sentiments and chatter about Free Fire's \"one-shot wonder\" have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>此外,Sensor Tower最近的游戏统计数据继续表明其Free Fire游戏的强劲性能。继续位列11月整体游戏收入排名前十的手游。此外,它在App Store和Google Play的总下载量中也排名第二。值得注意的是,截至12月14日,它也是全球年收入超过10亿美元的八款游戏之一。因此,我们认为关于Free Fire的“一次性奇迹”的情绪和喋喋不休被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51247ba1efd7fa6d333b482446e94c9a\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Global games market forecast. Source: Google, Newzoo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球游戏市场预测。资料来源:谷歌、Newzoo</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the global gaming market is estimated to experience a slight decline to $175.8B after last year's massive 23% growth to $177.8B. However, given Garena's impressive growth in FY21 despite the decline in the global market, we believe it validates its business model and prospects. Notably, the gaming market is expected to reverse its decline moving forward. Therefore, Garena's leadership in mobile gaming could continue to propel its growth underpinned by the recovery in the global gaming market.</p><p><blockquote>此外,全球游戏市场在去年大幅增长23%至$177.8 B后,预计将小幅下降至$175.8 B。然而,尽管全球市场下滑,但鉴于Garena在21财年仍取得了令人印象深刻的增长,我们相信它验证了其商业模式和前景。值得注意的是,游戏市场预计将扭转未来的颓势。因此,在全球游戏市场复苏的支持下,Garena在移动游戏领域的领导地位可能会继续推动其增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0612da9a19f7b7198d43213b4f4470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Shopee adjusted EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopee调整了每个订单的EBITDA。数据来源:公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, some investors may have been spooked by Shopee's (Sea Limited's e-commerce arm) continued expansion into new geographical markets. Notably, Shopee continues to report adjusted EBITDA loss per order, as shown above. Therefore, some investors might have been concerned about whether the company's plate is getting too much to handle. Over the last three months, the company has entered into new markets such as India, France, Spain, and Poland. They are in addition to its battle with MercadoLibre (MELI) in Latin America, particularly Brazil. As a result, there are concerns on whether Sea Limited could continue its adroit execution in these markets while still making losses. We believe such concerns are valid. However, Sea Limited has shown its tremendous capability in penetrating the most important markets where the incumbents have strong leadership. It includes Lazada (BABA) in Southeast Asia, MercadoLibre in Brazil, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. Shopee was never the first-mover. But, it took advantage as the \"late-comer\" as it sought to compete with the incumbents. It's important to note that Sea Limited is not averse to competition. It has thrived against the incumbents and has made the e-commerce space in these geographical regions much more competitive.</p><p><blockquote>但是,一些投资者可能被Shopee(Sea Limited的电子商务部门)向新地理市场的持续扩张吓坏了。值得注意的是,Shopee继续报告每个订单调整后的EBITDA损失,如上所示。因此,一些投资者可能会担心该公司的盘子是否太大而无法处理。在过去的三个月里,该公司进入了印度、法国、西班牙和波兰等新市场。除此之外,它还在拉丁美洲,尤其是巴西与MercadoLibre(MELI)展开了战斗。因此,人们担心Sea Limited能否在亏损的同时继续在这些市场娴熟地执行任务。我们认为这种担忧是有道理的。然而,Sea Limited在渗透现有企业拥有强大领导力的最重要市场方面表现出了巨大的能力。其中包括东南亚的Lazada(BABA)、巴西的MercadoLibre和印度尼西亚的Tokopedia。Shopee从来都不是先行者。但是,它利用了“后来者”的优势,试图与现有企业竞争。值得注意的是,Sea Limited并不反对竞争。它在与现有企业的竞争中蓬勃发展,并使这些地理区域的电子商务空间更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80938433e2d55307ca40000eeea2a26f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised adjusted EPS mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited修订后的调整后每股收益均值共识估计。数据来源:S&P Capital IQ、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the road towards profitability might be stretched further due to its e-commerce expansion. Readers can quickly glance over the chart above, where its adjusted EPS estimates have been revised downwards through FY23 over the last five months. However, we believe that if you are a long-term investor with a five-year horizon at least, it's not a cause for concern. Earlier investors in Sea Limited can keenly recall the company's massive adjusted EBITDA per order losses, as seen in the previous chart. Shopee has scaled tremendously over the last five years and has improved its operating leverage further. But, it's important to note that it takes time to scale up. Therefore, earlier losses in new geographical markets are expected. But, management has demonstrated its execution capability over the last three years. Considering its much reduced adjusted EBITDA losses over the previous few years, we believe that Shopee is even better positioned than before to navigate its expansion.</p><p><blockquote>然而,由于其电子商务的扩张,盈利之路可能会进一步延伸。读者可以快速浏览上图,其中2023财年在过去五个月中下调了调整后的每股收益预期。然而,我们认为,如果您是至少有五年投资期限的长期投资者,则无需担心。Sea Limited的早期投资者可以敏锐地回忆起该公司每订单调整后EBITDA的巨大损失,如上图所示。Shopee在过去五年中规模巨大,并进一步提高了其运营杠杆。但是,值得注意的是,扩大规模需要时间。因此,预计新地理市场将出现较早亏损。但是,管理层在过去三年中展示了其执行能力。考虑到过去几年调整后EBITDA亏损大幅减少,我们认为Shopee比以前更有能力应对扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is SE Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么,SE股票现在值得买入吗?</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbc835e49ded8a7a0e5f4fcc9e10649\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock EV/NTM Revenue 4Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票EV/NTM收入4年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SE stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 8.3x. Therefore, it has brought it back to its 4Y NTM revenue multiple mean of 8.6x. We believe there's a fantastic opportunity right now as the market has undoubtedly overreacted. As demonstrated clearly, SE is still expected to generate massive revenue growth moving ahead, even though it means the road to profitability gets further extended.</p><p><blockquote>SE股票的EV/NTM收入为8.3倍。因此,它已将其恢复到4年NTM收入倍数平均值8.6倍。我们相信现在有一个绝佳的机会,因为市场无疑反应过度了。正如清楚表明的那样,SE仍有望在未来产生巨大的收入增长,尽管这意味着盈利之路将进一步延长。</blockquote></p><p> Considering its FY23 revenue estimate, SE stock is trading at just 5.8x FY23 revenue. No one can accurately predict where the stock will be headed over the next few months. But, we think it represents a tremendous opportunity right now.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到2023财年的收入预期,SE股票的交易价格仅为2023财年收入的5.8倍。没有人能够准确预测该股未来几个月的走势。但是,我们认为这现在代表着一个巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bea18a0bdfd970ea640308dc35e099c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock price target Vs. actual price trend. Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股价目标与实际价格趋势。资料来源:寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, readers can observe that the valuation gap between SE stock's consensus price target (PT) of $405.87 and its current price has never been more significant in a while. It's even more pronounced than its last significant correction in April/May. Notably, the consensus price target has been revised upwards despite the so-called \"gaming headwinds.\" And, if you look at the price chart, SE stock price has followed the revised PT trend very consistently over time. Therefore, the current price could be one of the most significant discounts you could observe in a long time.</p><p><blockquote>此外,读者可以观察到,SE股票405.87美元的共识目标价(PT)与其当前价格之间的估值差距从未如此显着。这甚至比4月/5月的上一次大幅调整更加明显。值得注意的是,尽管存在所谓的“博弈阻力”,但共识价格目标仍被上调。而且,如果您查看价格图表,您会发现SE股价随着时间的推移非常一致地遵循修订后的PT趋势。因此,当前价格可能是您在很长一段时间内观察到的最显着的折扣之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939a544ab94c9e2a2b8a6db943703b39\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票DCF估值模型。数据来源:S&P Capital IQ,公司文件,作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our DCF model also shows that SE stock is now significantly undervalued with an implied fair value of $371.46. We have also used reasonable estimates in our model. Moreover, we believe that SE will continue to gain significant operating leverage as it scales in the new markets. We estimate that its adjusted EBITDA margins could reach 15% by FY25.</p><p><blockquote>我们的DCF模型还显示,SE股票目前被严重低估,隐含公允价值为371.46美元。我们在模型中也使用了合理的估计。此外,我们相信,随着SE在新市场的扩大规模,它将继续获得巨大的运营杠杆。我们估计,到2025财年,其调整后EBITDA利润率可能达到15%。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, the stock is also testing a critical support level that has strongly underpinned the stock's advance since early 2021. Therefore, there are sufficient reasons to believe that the current entry point to add exposure to SE stock seems very attractive now.</p><p><blockquote>最后,该股还在测试关键支撑位,该支撑位自2021年初以来有力支撑了该股的上涨。因此,有足够的理由相信,目前增加SE股票敞口的切入点现在看来非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently,<i>we revise our rating on SE stock to Strong Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此,<i>我们将SE股票评级修改为强力买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票:较高点下跌43%,现在值得买入吗?</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票:较高点下跌43%,现在值得买入吗?</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the market.</li> <li>However, we believe that the fundamental thesis on its rapid growth remains robust.</li> <li>We discuss why investors should capitalize on its recent significant correction to add exposure.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于成长型股票在市场上大量抛售,Sea Limited的股票最近遭受重创。</li><li>然而,我们认为其快速增长的基本论点仍然强劲。</li><li>我们讨论了为什么投资者应该利用其最近的重大调整来增加风险敞口。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited(NYSE:SE) stock is one of our highest conviction growth stocks that has been severely battered over the last month. Since its recent all-time high (ATH) in October, its price has dropped by a dramatic 43%. Many reasons have been presented on why the stock has fallen. We exhort investors not to read too much into them. We believe nothing material has changed from its fundamental thesis. The stock has had a remarkable run in 2021 relative to its gaming peers or e-tailer peers. Therefore, profit-taking of this extent should not be surprising as fear struck growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited(纽约证券交易所股票代码:SE)股票是我们最有信心的成长型股票之一,但在上个月遭受了严重打击。自10月份创下历史新高(ATH)以来,其价格已大幅下跌43%。关于该股下跌的原因有很多。我们敦促投资者不要对他们解读太多。我们认为它的基本论点没有任何实质性的改变。相对于游戏同行或电子零售商同行,该股在2021年表现出色。因此,随着恐惧袭击成长型股票,这种程度的获利了结并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the recent significant correction in growth stocks across the market has also hit SE stock hard. But, we are not concerned. Significant volatility will always be a factor influencing the performance of growth stocks like SE in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>此外,近期全市场成长股的大幅回调也重创了SE股。但是,我们并不担心。短期内,大幅波动始终是影响SE等成长型股票表现的一个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, we observed that the consensus target price on SE stock had been revised upwards since its FQ3 report card. Moreover, the gap between its price target and its current stock price has been greater than its last significant correction in April/May.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是,我们观察到,自第三季度成绩单以来,SE股票的共识目标价已向上修正。此外,其目标价与当前股价之间的差距已大于4月/5月上次大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> Our internal DCF valuation model also points to a stock that is now significantly undervalued. Thanks to the market's myopia, we have been presented with another fantastic opportunity since April/May to add SE stock with great fervor again.</p><p><blockquote>我们的内部DCF估值模型也指向一只目前被严重低估的股票。由于市场的短视,自4月/5月以来,我们又迎来了一个绝佳的机会,再次以极大的热情增持SE股票。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss why we think investors should not miss this incredible opportunity to add exposure to an outstanding growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论了为什么我们认为投资者不应该错过这个增加对优秀成长型股票投资的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SE Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SE股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c191d1f0f6a10e392845cdbda1264aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock YTD performance (as of 17 December'21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票年初至今表现(截至21年12月17日)。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result of the significant correction recently, SE stock's YTD return has dropped to 6.9%, thus underperforming the market. Notably, its YTD gain was as high as 80% in October/early November. Despite that, the stock is still outperforming its e-tailer and gaming peers, as shown above.</p><p><blockquote>由于近期大幅调整,SE股票年初至今的回报率已降至6.9%,表现逊于大盘。值得注意的是,10月/11月初,其年初至今涨幅高达80%。尽管如此,该股的表现仍然优于电子零售商和游戏同行,如上所示。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sea Stock Estimates Have Consistently Been Revised Upwards</b></p><p><blockquote><b>海洋库存估计不断上调</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8555128e2a30e924dd6c2dd162a27eea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited修正后的收入平均共识估计。数据来源:S&P Capital IQ、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly observe that the company's revenue consensus estimates for FY21-23 have consistently been revised upwards over the last five months. These revisions lend credence to the robust growth prospects of the company over the next two years. Notably, Sea Limited's revenue is estimated to increase at a phenomenal CAGR of 42.8% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以很快观察到,该公司对2021-23财年的收入共识预期在过去五个月中一直在上调。这些修正为公司未来两年的强劲增长前景增添了信心。值得注意的是,Sea Limited的收入预计将通过2023财年以42.8%的惊人复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> There were concerns over the growth rates of its Garena gaming arm in its FQ3 report card.We also explained in our previous article that Sea Limited has clearly explained that investors should expect normalization in Garena's growth after two spectacular years. However, its monetization capability continues to dazzle. Therefore, we are confident that Garena can continue its robust monetization strategies moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>人们对其第三季度成绩单中Garena游戏部门的增长率感到担忧。我们在上一篇文章中还解释说,Sea Limited已经明确解释说,投资者应该预计Garena的增长在经历了两年的辉煌之后将正常化。然而,其变现能力继续令人眼花缭乱。因此,我们相信Garena能够继续其稳健的货币化战略。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, data from Sensor Tower's recent gaming statistics continue to point to sturdy performance from its Free Fire game. It continues to be ranked among the top ten mobile games in terms of overall gaming revenue in November. Moreover, it's also ranked#2 in overall downloadsacross both the App Store and Google Play. Notably, it's also among eight games globally whose annual revenue crossed $1B as of 14 December. Therefore, we think the sentiments and chatter about Free Fire's \"one-shot wonder\" have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>此外,Sensor Tower最近的游戏统计数据继续表明其Free Fire游戏的强劲性能。继续位列11月整体游戏收入排名前十的手游。此外,它在App Store和Google Play的总下载量中也排名第二。值得注意的是,截至12月14日,它也是全球年收入超过10亿美元的八款游戏之一。因此,我们认为关于Free Fire的“一次性奇迹”的情绪和喋喋不休被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51247ba1efd7fa6d333b482446e94c9a\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Global games market forecast. Source: Google, Newzoo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球游戏市场预测。资料来源:谷歌、Newzoo</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the global gaming market is estimated to experience a slight decline to $175.8B after last year's massive 23% growth to $177.8B. However, given Garena's impressive growth in FY21 despite the decline in the global market, we believe it validates its business model and prospects. Notably, the gaming market is expected to reverse its decline moving forward. Therefore, Garena's leadership in mobile gaming could continue to propel its growth underpinned by the recovery in the global gaming market.</p><p><blockquote>此外,全球游戏市场在去年大幅增长23%至$177.8 B后,预计将小幅下降至$175.8 B。然而,尽管全球市场下滑,但鉴于Garena在21财年仍取得了令人印象深刻的增长,我们相信它验证了其商业模式和前景。值得注意的是,游戏市场预计将扭转未来的颓势。因此,在全球游戏市场复苏的支持下,Garena在移动游戏领域的领导地位可能会继续推动其增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0612da9a19f7b7198d43213b4f4470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Shopee adjusted EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopee调整了每个订单的EBITDA。数据来源:公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, some investors may have been spooked by Shopee's (Sea Limited's e-commerce arm) continued expansion into new geographical markets. Notably, Shopee continues to report adjusted EBITDA loss per order, as shown above. Therefore, some investors might have been concerned about whether the company's plate is getting too much to handle. Over the last three months, the company has entered into new markets such as India, France, Spain, and Poland. They are in addition to its battle with MercadoLibre (MELI) in Latin America, particularly Brazil. As a result, there are concerns on whether Sea Limited could continue its adroit execution in these markets while still making losses. We believe such concerns are valid. However, Sea Limited has shown its tremendous capability in penetrating the most important markets where the incumbents have strong leadership. It includes Lazada (BABA) in Southeast Asia, MercadoLibre in Brazil, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. Shopee was never the first-mover. But, it took advantage as the \"late-comer\" as it sought to compete with the incumbents. It's important to note that Sea Limited is not averse to competition. It has thrived against the incumbents and has made the e-commerce space in these geographical regions much more competitive.</p><p><blockquote>但是,一些投资者可能被Shopee(Sea Limited的电子商务部门)向新地理市场的持续扩张吓坏了。值得注意的是,Shopee继续报告每个订单调整后的EBITDA损失,如上所示。因此,一些投资者可能会担心该公司的盘子是否太大而无法处理。在过去的三个月里,该公司进入了印度、法国、西班牙和波兰等新市场。除此之外,它还在拉丁美洲,尤其是巴西与MercadoLibre(MELI)展开了战斗。因此,人们担心Sea Limited能否在亏损的同时继续在这些市场娴熟地执行任务。我们认为这种担忧是有道理的。然而,Sea Limited在渗透现有企业拥有强大领导力的最重要市场方面表现出了巨大的能力。其中包括东南亚的Lazada(BABA)、巴西的MercadoLibre和印度尼西亚的Tokopedia。Shopee从来都不是先行者。但是,它利用了“后来者”的优势,试图与现有企业竞争。值得注意的是,Sea Limited并不反对竞争。它在与现有企业的竞争中蓬勃发展,并使这些地理区域的电子商务空间更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80938433e2d55307ca40000eeea2a26f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised adjusted EPS mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited修订后的调整后每股收益均值共识估计。数据来源:S&P Capital IQ、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the road towards profitability might be stretched further due to its e-commerce expansion. Readers can quickly glance over the chart above, where its adjusted EPS estimates have been revised downwards through FY23 over the last five months. However, we believe that if you are a long-term investor with a five-year horizon at least, it's not a cause for concern. Earlier investors in Sea Limited can keenly recall the company's massive adjusted EBITDA per order losses, as seen in the previous chart. Shopee has scaled tremendously over the last five years and has improved its operating leverage further. But, it's important to note that it takes time to scale up. Therefore, earlier losses in new geographical markets are expected. But, management has demonstrated its execution capability over the last three years. Considering its much reduced adjusted EBITDA losses over the previous few years, we believe that Shopee is even better positioned than before to navigate its expansion.</p><p><blockquote>然而,由于其电子商务的扩张,盈利之路可能会进一步延伸。读者可以快速浏览上图,其中2023财年在过去五个月中下调了调整后的每股收益预期。然而,我们认为,如果您是至少有五年投资期限的长期投资者,则无需担心。Sea Limited的早期投资者可以敏锐地回忆起该公司每订单调整后EBITDA的巨大损失,如上图所示。Shopee在过去五年中规模巨大,并进一步提高了其运营杠杆。但是,值得注意的是,扩大规模需要时间。因此,预计新地理市场将出现较早亏损。但是,管理层在过去三年中展示了其执行能力。考虑到过去几年调整后EBITDA亏损大幅减少,我们认为Shopee比以前更有能力应对扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is SE Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么,SE股票现在值得买入吗?</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbc835e49ded8a7a0e5f4fcc9e10649\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock EV/NTM Revenue 4Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票EV/NTM收入4年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SE stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 8.3x. Therefore, it has brought it back to its 4Y NTM revenue multiple mean of 8.6x. We believe there's a fantastic opportunity right now as the market has undoubtedly overreacted. As demonstrated clearly, SE is still expected to generate massive revenue growth moving ahead, even though it means the road to profitability gets further extended.</p><p><blockquote>SE股票的EV/NTM收入为8.3倍。因此,它已将其恢复到4年NTM收入倍数平均值8.6倍。我们相信现在有一个绝佳的机会,因为市场无疑反应过度了。正如清楚表明的那样,SE仍有望在未来产生巨大的收入增长,尽管这意味着盈利之路将进一步延长。</blockquote></p><p> Considering its FY23 revenue estimate, SE stock is trading at just 5.8x FY23 revenue. No one can accurately predict where the stock will be headed over the next few months. But, we think it represents a tremendous opportunity right now.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到2023财年的收入预期,SE股票的交易价格仅为2023财年收入的5.8倍。没有人能够准确预测该股未来几个月的走势。但是,我们认为这现在代表着一个巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bea18a0bdfd970ea640308dc35e099c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock price target Vs. actual price trend. Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股价目标与实际价格趋势。资料来源:寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, readers can observe that the valuation gap between SE stock's consensus price target (PT) of $405.87 and its current price has never been more significant in a while. It's even more pronounced than its last significant correction in April/May. Notably, the consensus price target has been revised upwards despite the so-called \"gaming headwinds.\" And, if you look at the price chart, SE stock price has followed the revised PT trend very consistently over time. Therefore, the current price could be one of the most significant discounts you could observe in a long time.</p><p><blockquote>此外,读者可以观察到,SE股票405.87美元的共识目标价(PT)与其当前价格之间的估值差距从未如此显着。这甚至比4月/5月的上一次大幅调整更加明显。值得注意的是,尽管存在所谓的“博弈阻力”,但共识价格目标仍被上调。而且,如果您查看价格图表,您会发现SE股价随着时间的推移非常一致地遵循修订后的PT趋势。因此,当前价格可能是您在很长一段时间内观察到的最显着的折扣之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939a544ab94c9e2a2b8a6db943703b39\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票DCF估值模型。数据来源:S&P Capital IQ,公司文件,作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our DCF model also shows that SE stock is now significantly undervalued with an implied fair value of $371.46. We have also used reasonable estimates in our model. Moreover, we believe that SE will continue to gain significant operating leverage as it scales in the new markets. We estimate that its adjusted EBITDA margins could reach 15% by FY25.</p><p><blockquote>我们的DCF模型还显示,SE股票目前被严重低估,隐含公允价值为371.46美元。我们在模型中也使用了合理的估计。此外,我们相信,随着SE在新市场的扩大规模,它将继续获得巨大的运营杠杆。我们估计,到2025财年,其调整后EBITDA利润率可能达到15%。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, the stock is also testing a critical support level that has strongly underpinned the stock's advance since early 2021. Therefore, there are sufficient reasons to believe that the current entry point to add exposure to SE stock seems very attractive now.</p><p><blockquote>最后,该股还在测试关键支撑位,该支撑位自2021年初以来有力支撑了该股的上涨。因此,有足够的理由相信,目前增加SE股票敞口的切入点现在看来非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently,<i>we revise our rating on SE stock to Strong Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此,<i>我们将SE股票评级修改为强力买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源:<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475931-sea-se-down-significantly-stock-strong-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验,我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475931-sea-se-down-significantly-stock-strong-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109541249","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the market.\nHowever, we believe that the fundamental thesis on its rapid growth remains robust.\nWe discuss why investors should capitalize on its recent significant correction to add exposure.\n\nkokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSea Limited(NYSE:SE) stock is one of our highest conviction growth stocks that has been severely battered over the last month. Since its recent all-time high (ATH) in October, its price has dropped by a dramatic 43%. Many reasons have been presented on why the stock has fallen. We exhort investors not to read too much into them. We believe nothing material has changed from its fundamental thesis. The stock has had a remarkable run in 2021 relative to its gaming peers or e-tailer peers. Therefore, profit-taking of this extent should not be surprising as fear struck growth stocks.\nMoreover, the recent significant correction in growth stocks across the market has also hit SE stock hard. But, we are not concerned. Significant volatility will always be a factor influencing the performance of growth stocks like SE in the short term.\nNotably, we observed that the consensus target price on SE stock had been revised upwards since its FQ3 report card. Moreover, the gap between its price target and its current stock price has been greater than its last significant correction in April/May.\nOur internal DCF valuation model also points to a stock that is now significantly undervalued. Thanks to the market's myopia, we have been presented with another fantastic opportunity since April/May to add SE stock with great fervor again.\nWe discuss why we think investors should not miss this incredible opportunity to add exposure to an outstanding growth stock.\nSE Stock YTD Performance\nSE stock YTD performance (as of 17 December'21).\nAs a result of the significant correction recently, SE stock's YTD return has dropped to 6.9%, thus underperforming the market. Notably, its YTD gain was as high as 80% in October/early November. Despite that, the stock is still outperforming its e-tailer and gaming peers, as shown above.\nSea Stock Estimates Have Consistently Been Revised Upwards\nSea Limited revised revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha\nReaders can quickly observe that the company's revenue consensus estimates for FY21-23 have consistently been revised upwards over the last five months. These revisions lend credence to the robust growth prospects of the company over the next two years. Notably, Sea Limited's revenue is estimated to increase at a phenomenal CAGR of 42.8% through FY23.\nThere were concerns over the growth rates of its Garena gaming arm in its FQ3 report card.We also explained in our previous article that Sea Limited has clearly explained that investors should expect normalization in Garena's growth after two spectacular years. However, its monetization capability continues to dazzle. Therefore, we are confident that Garena can continue its robust monetization strategies moving forward.\nMoreover, data from Sensor Tower's recent gaming statistics continue to point to sturdy performance from its Free Fire game. It continues to be ranked among the top ten mobile games in terms of overall gaming revenue in November. Moreover, it's also ranked#2 in overall downloadsacross both the App Store and Google Play. Notably, it's also among eight games globally whose annual revenue crossed $1B as of 14 December. Therefore, we think the sentiments and chatter about Free Fire's \"one-shot wonder\" have been overblown.\nGlobal games market forecast. Source: Google, Newzoo\nIn addition, the global gaming market is estimated to experience a slight decline to $175.8B after last year's massive 23% growth to $177.8B. However, given Garena's impressive growth in FY21 despite the decline in the global market, we believe it validates its business model and prospects. Notably, the gaming market is expected to reverse its decline moving forward. Therefore, Garena's leadership in mobile gaming could continue to propel its growth underpinned by the recovery in the global gaming market.\nShopee adjusted EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings\nBut, some investors may have been spooked by Shopee's (Sea Limited's e-commerce arm) continued expansion into new geographical markets. Notably, Shopee continues to report adjusted EBITDA loss per order, as shown above. Therefore, some investors might have been concerned about whether the company's plate is getting too much to handle. Over the last three months, the company has entered into new markets such as India, France, Spain, and Poland. They are in addition to its battle with MercadoLibre (MELI) in Latin America, particularly Brazil. As a result, there are concerns on whether Sea Limited could continue its adroit execution in these markets while still making losses. We believe such concerns are valid. However, Sea Limited has shown its tremendous capability in penetrating the most important markets where the incumbents have strong leadership. It includes Lazada (BABA) in Southeast Asia, MercadoLibre in Brazil, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. Shopee was never the first-mover. But, it took advantage as the \"late-comer\" as it sought to compete with the incumbents. It's important to note that Sea Limited is not averse to competition. It has thrived against the incumbents and has made the e-commerce space in these geographical regions much more competitive.\nSea Limited revised adjusted EPS mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha\nNevertheless, the road towards profitability might be stretched further due to its e-commerce expansion. Readers can quickly glance over the chart above, where its adjusted EPS estimates have been revised downwards through FY23 over the last five months. However, we believe that if you are a long-term investor with a five-year horizon at least, it's not a cause for concern. Earlier investors in Sea Limited can keenly recall the company's massive adjusted EBITDA per order losses, as seen in the previous chart. Shopee has scaled tremendously over the last five years and has improved its operating leverage further. But, it's important to note that it takes time to scale up. Therefore, earlier losses in new geographical markets are expected. But, management has demonstrated its execution capability over the last three years. Considering its much reduced adjusted EBITDA losses over the previous few years, we believe that Shopee is even better positioned than before to navigate its expansion.\nSo, is SE Stock a Buy Now?\nSE stock EV/NTM Revenue 4Y mean.\nSE stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 8.3x. Therefore, it has brought it back to its 4Y NTM revenue multiple mean of 8.6x. We believe there's a fantastic opportunity right now as the market has undoubtedly overreacted. As demonstrated clearly, SE is still expected to generate massive revenue growth moving ahead, even though it means the road to profitability gets further extended.\nConsidering its FY23 revenue estimate, SE stock is trading at just 5.8x FY23 revenue. No one can accurately predict where the stock will be headed over the next few months. But, we think it represents a tremendous opportunity right now.\nSE stock price target Vs. actual price trend. Source: Seeking Alpha\nMoreover, readers can observe that the valuation gap between SE stock's consensus price target (PT) of $405.87 and its current price has never been more significant in a while. It's even more pronounced than its last significant correction in April/May. Notably, the consensus price target has been revised upwards despite the so-called \"gaming headwinds.\" And, if you look at the price chart, SE stock price has followed the revised PT trend very consistently over time. Therefore, the current price could be one of the most significant discounts you could observe in a long time.\nSE stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author\nOur DCF model also shows that SE stock is now significantly undervalued with an implied fair value of $371.46. We have also used reasonable estimates in our model. Moreover, we believe that SE will continue to gain significant operating leverage as it scales in the new markets. We estimate that its adjusted EBITDA margins could reach 15% by FY25.\nLastly, the stock is also testing a critical support level that has strongly underpinned the stock's advance since early 2021. Therefore, there are sufficient reasons to believe that the current entry point to add exposure to SE stock seems very attractive now.\nConsequently,we revise our rating on SE stock to Strong Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699876343,"gmtCreate":1639786591946,"gmtModify":1639786592151,"author":{"id":"4093059407761700","authorId":"4093059407761700","name":"Dalang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9884b0395e7dd457fb8aa5df567c286c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093059407761700","idStr":"4093059407761700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699876343","repostId":"1170036266","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699048489,"gmtCreate":1639728677595,"gmtModify":1639728677595,"author":{"id":"4093059407761700","authorId":"4093059407761700","name":"Dalang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9884b0395e7dd457fb8aa5df567c286c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093059407761700","idStr":"4093059407761700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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rebound?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01f4f240b5c79e8ed13fcabdbb805e6f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699048489","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690238378,"gmtCreate":1639668458480,"gmtModify":1639668458700,"author":{"id":"4093059407761700","authorId":"4093059407761700","name":"Dalang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9884b0395e7dd457fb8aa5df567c286c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093059407761700","idStr":"4093059407761700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690238378","repostId":"2191943009","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607377967,"gmtCreate":1639494194557,"gmtModify":1639494249624,"author":{"id":"4093059407761700","authorId":"4093059407761700","name":"Dalang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9884b0395e7dd457fb8aa5df567c286c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093059407761700","idStr":"4093059407761700"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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与此同时,任天堂的发展战略依然很保守。在上个月一份48页的盈利报告中,它没有提到元宇宙,尽管爆款游戏《集合啦!动物森友会》本身就是一个迷你元宇宙。 这款游戏有虚拟货币、服装和在线功能,玩家可以在自己亲自建设的热带岛屿上与朋友互动。自2020年3月发行以来,该游戏已售出近3500万部。 可是和元宇宙有关的前景还没有反映在任天堂的股价中。华尔街预计,在截至明年3月的2022财年,任天堂美国存托凭证的每股收益将为3.74美元,低于2021财年的4.64美元。预计销售额将从162亿美元降至145亿美元,供应链问题和半导体短缺是造成预期降幅的部分原因,这将是六年来的首次下降。 韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)分析师迈克尔·帕切特(Michael Pachter)表示,他认为市场对任天堂Switch游戏机的需求不会下降,该游戏机自2017年上市以来已售出约9300万台。该设备允许玩家通过手持模式和通过电视进行游戏。今年10月,任天堂推出了一款价格更高的机型,配备了","listText":"和元宇宙有关的前景还没有反映在任天堂的股价中。 电子游戏在新冠疫情大流行时期迎来了复兴,但该行业的原始玩家却被甩在了后面。任天堂(NTDOY)的美国存托凭证在2021年下跌了29%。 这家日本电子游戏巨头仍然在制作深受粉丝喜爱的游戏,但投资者今年大部分时间都在寻找那些对“元宇宙”做出重大承诺的公司。(metaverse,指的是能够实现社交互动和商业的虚拟世界。) 这推动了Roblox (RBLX)和英伟达(NVDA)等公司股票今年大幅上涨。Roblox 是一家为游戏玩家提供创建在线世界工具的公司,在最近的一次投资者会议上,它提到了“ metaverse”17次。 Roblox自3月份直接上市以来股价已经上涨了160%。该公司正面临多年的年度亏损,按明年的销售额计算目前市销率为21倍,而任天堂仅为3.5倍。 与此同时,任天堂的发展战略依然很保守。在上个月一份48页的盈利报告中,它没有提到元宇宙,尽管爆款游戏《集合啦!动物森友会》本身就是一个迷你元宇宙。 这款游戏有虚拟货币、服装和在线功能,玩家可以在自己亲自建设的热带岛屿上与朋友互动。自2020年3月发行以来,该游戏已售出近3500万部。 可是和元宇宙有关的前景还没有反映在任天堂的股价中。华尔街预计,在截至明年3月的2022财年,任天堂美国存托凭证的每股收益将为3.74美元,低于2021财年的4.64美元。预计销售额将从162亿美元降至145亿美元,供应链问题和半导体短缺是造成预期降幅的部分原因,这将是六年来的首次下降。 韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)分析师迈克尔·帕切特(Michael Pachter)表示,他认为市场对任天堂Switch游戏机的需求不会下降,该游戏机自2017年上市以来已售出约9300万台。该设备允许玩家通过手持模式和通过电视进行游戏。今年10月,任天堂推出了一款价格更高的机型,配备了","text":"和元宇宙有关的前景还没有反映在任天堂的股价中。 电子游戏在新冠疫情大流行时期迎来了复兴,但该行业的原始玩家却被甩在了后面。任天堂(NTDOY)的美国存托凭证在2021年下跌了29%。 这家日本电子游戏巨头仍然在制作深受粉丝喜爱的游戏,但投资者今年大部分时间都在寻找那些对“元宇宙”做出重大承诺的公司。(metaverse,指的是能够实现社交互动和商业的虚拟世界。) 这推动了Roblox (RBLX)和英伟达(NVDA)等公司股票今年大幅上涨。Roblox 是一家为游戏玩家提供创建在线世界工具的公司,在最近的一次投资者会议上,它提到了“ metaverse”17次。 Roblox自3月份直接上市以来股价已经上涨了160%。该公司正面临多年的年度亏损,按明年的销售额计算目前市销率为21倍,而任天堂仅为3.5倍。 与此同时,任天堂的发展战略依然很保守。在上个月一份48页的盈利报告中,它没有提到元宇宙,尽管爆款游戏《集合啦!动物森友会》本身就是一个迷你元宇宙。 这款游戏有虚拟货币、服装和在线功能,玩家可以在自己亲自建设的热带岛屿上与朋友互动。自2020年3月发行以来,该游戏已售出近3500万部。 可是和元宇宙有关的前景还没有反映在任天堂的股价中。华尔街预计,在截至明年3月的2022财年,任天堂美国存托凭证的每股收益将为3.74美元,低于2021财年的4.64美元。预计销售额将从162亿美元降至145亿美元,供应链问题和半导体短缺是造成预期降幅的部分原因,这将是六年来的首次下降。 韦德布什证券(Wedbush Securities)分析师迈克尔·帕切特(Michael 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