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- SebestianTSebestianT
  ·2021-10-18
  Ok
  Zillow slipped over 11% in early trading<blockquote>Zillow早盘下跌逾11%</blockquote>
  Zillow slipped over 11% in early trading after after the online real-estate company told Bloomberg t
  Zillow slipped over 11% in early trading<blockquote>Zillow早盘下跌逾11%</blockquote>
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- SebestianTSebestianT
  ·2021-10-11
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  The Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote>
  The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survi
  The Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote>
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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634565494,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115206110?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-18 21:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow slipped over 11% in early trading<blockquote>Zillow早盘下跌逾11%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115206110","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Zillow slipped over 11% in early trading after after the online real-estate company told Bloomberg t","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a> slipped over 11% in early trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;after the online real-estate company told Bloomberg that it won’t purchase homes for the rest of the year, saying that it was “beyond operational capacity.”</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>这家在线房地产公司告诉彭博社，今年剩余时间不会购买房屋，称其“超出了运营能力”，早盘交易中股价下跌超过11%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9f19862649f5b746719782994812fd\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Related:</b>&nbsp;<b>Zillow Gets Outplayed at Its Own Game</b></p><p><blockquote><b>相关：</b> <b>Zillow在自己的游戏中被击败</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow, it seems, has over-flipped.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow似乎已经过度翻转了。</blockquote></p><p> The company that has prided itself on its technology to outsource a lot of human work is suddenly referring the work right back to humans. Zillow Group’s automated home-flipping business has stopped pursuing new home acquisitions temporarily, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. In a statement for this article, a Zillow spokesperson said in an email it is “beyond operational capacity in [its] Zillow Offers business.” Zillow said it is now connecting homeowners looking to sell their home to its local Premier Agent partners.</p><p><blockquote>这家以其外包大量人类工作的技术而自豪的公司突然将工作重新交给了人类。据彭博社周日报道，Zillow Group的自动化房屋翻转业务已暂时停止寻求新房收购。在本文的一份声明中，Zillow发言人在一封电子邮件中表示，Zillow提供的业务“超出了运营能力”。Zillow表示，它现在正在将希望将房屋出售给当地顶级代理合作伙伴的房主联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> The pause seems to be a case of poor planning—a surprising lapse for a company that has been in the online real-estate business for nearly 17 years. Rather than a cash issue, Zillow is saying it experienced supply constraints having to do with on-the-ground workers and vendors. Leave it to atechnology companyto develop an algorithm to predict home values, but mismanage the human aspect of its business.</p><p><blockquote>这一暂停似乎是规划不周的一个例子——对于一家从事在线房地产业务近17年的公司来说，这是一个令人惊讶的失误。Zillow表示，它遇到的不是现金问题，而是与现场工人和供应商有关的供应限制。让科技公司开发一种预测房屋价值的算法，但对其业务的人的方面管理不善。</blockquote></p><p> To add insult to injury, Zillow’s biggest competitor seems to be handling high volumes just fine.Opendoor TechnologiesOPEN+2.52%said it is “open for business and continues to scale and grow,” noting it has worked hard over the past seven years to ensure it can continue to deliver as it expands. While Zillow long predates Opendoor as a company, it mainly offered an online marketing platform for agents before adding iBuying in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>雪上加霜的是，Zillow最大的竞争对手似乎处理高销量还不错。Opendoor TechnologiesOPEN+2.52%表示，该公司“已开始营业，并继续扩大规模和增长”，并指出该公司在过去七年中一直在努力确保随着扩张它可以继续提供服务。虽然Zillow作为一家公司早于Opendoor，但在2018年加入iBuying之前，它主要为代理商提供在线营销平台。</blockquote></p><p> Zillow said it purchased a record number of homes in the second quarter at 3,805, but that still paled in comparison to the 8,494 homes Opendoor purchased in the same period. It doesn’t seem as though the near-term business hascompletely flopped: The company says it is continuing to process the purchases of homes from sellers who are already under contract as quickly as possible. That means home purchases could still continue to grow sequentially in the fourth quarter, even with the pause. Zillow hasn’t publicly commented on its fourth-quarter buying forecast, but has said its third-quarter outlook implies a “step up” in purchase activity.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow表示，第二季度购买了创纪录的3,805套房屋，但与Opendoor同期购买的8,494套房屋相比，这一数字仍然相形见绌。近期业务似乎并没有完全失败：该公司表示，它将继续尽快处理已签订合同的卖家购买的房屋。这意味着即使暂停，第四季度的购房仍可能继续环比增长。Zillow尚未公开评论其第四季度的购买预测，但表示其第三季度的前景意味着购买活动将“加速”。</blockquote></p><p> Rather than flip out, iBuying investors may want to look at Zillow’s news as an opportunity for its competitors. Opendoor is now active in 44 markets, including all but two of Zillow’s 25 markets. Zillow’s pause therefore spells a golden opportunity for Opendoor. Zillow hasn’t yet said when it will resume new home purchases, but an email from a Zillow Offers Advisor to an agent seen by the Journal suggests the pause will last through the end of 2021 at the least.</p><p><blockquote>iBuying投资者可能不会惊慌失措，而是希望将Zillow的消息视为其竞争对手的机会。Opendoor目前活跃在44个市场，包括Zillow 25个市场中除两个市场外的所有市场。因此，Zillow的暂停对Opendoor来说意味着一个千载难逢的机会。Zillow尚未表示何时恢复新房购买，但《华尔街日报》看到的Zillow Offers顾问发给经纪人的一封电子邮件表明，暂停将至少持续到2021年底。</blockquote></p><p> Zillow’s mismanagement also highlights a key strength for smaller competitorOfferpad Solutions.OPAD+0.73%Led by a former real-estate agent, that company has longtouted its ground game. Offerpad, which is now a publicly traded company after closing its merger with a special-purpose acquisition company in September, seems to have been ahead of the curve in terms of understanding how many workers to employ and where, which repairs need to get done and how to execute them efficiently. An analysis by BTIG Research shows Offerpad’s contribution profit per home sold was over 4.7 times that of Zillow’s last year.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow的管理不善也凸显了规模较小的竞争对手Offerpad Solutions的一个关键优势。该公司由一位前房地产经纪人领导，长期以来一直吹捧其地面游戏。Offerpad在9月份完成了与一家特殊目的收购公司的合并后，现在是一家上市公司，在了解雇用多少工人、在哪里、需要进行哪些维修以及如何有效地执行这些维修方面，它似乎已经走在了潮流的前面。BTIG Research的一项分析显示，Offerpad每售出一套房屋的贡献利润是Zillow去年的4.7倍以上。</blockquote></p><p> But the news is also a signal that investors may want to start to tread more lightly around what has thus far been a banner year for the sector. The reality is that iBuyers have incredible amounts of market data, can plan acquisitions and inventory months in advance and have a number of levers to pull to slow or accelerate the business, according to Mike DelPrete, a real estate tech strategist and scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder. Given that, it is unusual that Zillow’s pause happened so suddenly and across all its markets.</p><p><blockquote>但这一消息也是一个信号，表明投资者可能希望开始对该行业迄今为止表现出色的一年采取更轻松的态度。房地产技术策略师兼学者迈克·德尔普雷特(Mike DelPrete)表示，现实情况是，iBuyers拥有令人难以置信的大量市场数据，可以提前几个月计划收购和库存，并拥有许多杠杆来减缓或加速业务。科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的住院医师。有鉴于此，Zillow的暂停发生得如此突然且遍及其所有市场是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. real-estate market has finallystarted to cool a bit. On Friday, Redfin reported the median home sale price rose 14% year-over-year in September—the lowest growth rate since December 2020. Meanwhile, closed home sales and new listings of homes for sale both fell from a year earlier, by 5% and 9% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>美国房地产市场终于开始降温。周五，Redfin报告称，9月份房屋销售价格中位数同比上涨14%，为2020年12月以来的最低增长率。与此同时，已完成房屋销售和新挂牌待售房屋均较上年同期下降，分别下降5%和9%。</blockquote></p><p> Thus far, no other major iBuyer has said it was pausing new acquisitions this year. As Mr. DelPrete notes, it is possible Opendoor and Offerpad began to slow their own buying commitments as the market started to change, whileZillow missed the signs. More likely, Zillow, which has consistently prophesied what it calls the “Great Reshuffling” amid a permanence in remote work, just neglected to do its own reshuffling on the ground.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，还没有其他主要iBuyer表示今年将暂停新的收购。正如DelPrete先生指出的那样，随着市场开始发生变化，Opendoor和Offerpad可能开始放慢自己的购买承诺，而Zillow则错过了这些迹象。更有可能的是，Zillow一直预言在远程工作的持久性中进行评级的“大洗牌”，只是忽略了在地面上进行自己的洗牌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow slipped over 11% in early trading<blockquote>Zillow早盘下跌逾11%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow slipped over 11% in early trading<blockquote>Zillow早盘下跌逾11%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-18 21:58</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a> slipped over 11% in early trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;after the online real-estate company told Bloomberg that it won’t purchase homes for the rest of the year, saying that it was “beyond operational capacity.”</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z\">Zillow</a>这家在线房地产公司告诉彭博社，今年剩余时间不会购买房屋，称其“超出了运营能力”，早盘交易中股价下跌超过11%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9f19862649f5b746719782994812fd\" tg-width=\"1043\" tg-height=\"566\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Related:</b>&nbsp;<b>Zillow Gets Outplayed at Its Own Game</b></p><p><blockquote><b>相关：</b> <b>Zillow在自己的游戏中被击败</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow, it seems, has over-flipped.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow似乎已经过度翻转了。</blockquote></p><p> The company that has prided itself on its technology to outsource a lot of human work is suddenly referring the work right back to humans. Zillow Group’s automated home-flipping business has stopped pursuing new home acquisitions temporarily, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. In a statement for this article, a Zillow spokesperson said in an email it is “beyond operational capacity in [its] Zillow Offers business.” Zillow said it is now connecting homeowners looking to sell their home to its local Premier Agent partners.</p><p><blockquote>这家以其外包大量人类工作的技术而自豪的公司突然将工作重新交给了人类。据彭博社周日报道，Zillow Group的自动化房屋翻转业务已暂时停止寻求新房收购。在本文的一份声明中，Zillow发言人在一封电子邮件中表示，Zillow提供的业务“超出了运营能力”。Zillow表示，它现在正在将希望将房屋出售给当地顶级代理合作伙伴的房主联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> The pause seems to be a case of poor planning—a surprising lapse for a company that has been in the online real-estate business for nearly 17 years. Rather than a cash issue, Zillow is saying it experienced supply constraints having to do with on-the-ground workers and vendors. Leave it to atechnology companyto develop an algorithm to predict home values, but mismanage the human aspect of its business.</p><p><blockquote>这一暂停似乎是规划不周的一个例子——对于一家从事在线房地产业务近17年的公司来说，这是一个令人惊讶的失误。Zillow表示，它遇到的不是现金问题，而是与现场工人和供应商有关的供应限制。让科技公司开发一种预测房屋价值的算法，但对其业务的人的方面管理不善。</blockquote></p><p> To add insult to injury, Zillow’s biggest competitor seems to be handling high volumes just fine.Opendoor TechnologiesOPEN+2.52%said it is “open for business and continues to scale and grow,” noting it has worked hard over the past seven years to ensure it can continue to deliver as it expands. While Zillow long predates Opendoor as a company, it mainly offered an online marketing platform for agents before adding iBuying in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>雪上加霜的是，Zillow最大的竞争对手似乎处理高销量还不错。Opendoor TechnologiesOPEN+2.52%表示，该公司“已开始营业，并继续扩大规模和增长”，并指出该公司在过去七年中一直在努力确保随着扩张它可以继续提供服务。虽然Zillow作为一家公司早于Opendoor，但在2018年加入iBuying之前，它主要为代理商提供在线营销平台。</blockquote></p><p> Zillow said it purchased a record number of homes in the second quarter at 3,805, but that still paled in comparison to the 8,494 homes Opendoor purchased in the same period. It doesn’t seem as though the near-term business hascompletely flopped: The company says it is continuing to process the purchases of homes from sellers who are already under contract as quickly as possible. That means home purchases could still continue to grow sequentially in the fourth quarter, even with the pause. Zillow hasn’t publicly commented on its fourth-quarter buying forecast, but has said its third-quarter outlook implies a “step up” in purchase activity.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow表示，第二季度购买了创纪录的3,805套房屋，但与Opendoor同期购买的8,494套房屋相比，这一数字仍然相形见绌。近期业务似乎并没有完全失败：该公司表示，它将继续尽快处理已签订合同的卖家购买的房屋。这意味着即使暂停，第四季度的购房仍可能继续环比增长。Zillow尚未公开评论其第四季度的购买预测，但表示其第三季度的前景意味着购买活动将“加速”。</blockquote></p><p> Rather than flip out, iBuying investors may want to look at Zillow’s news as an opportunity for its competitors. Opendoor is now active in 44 markets, including all but two of Zillow’s 25 markets. Zillow’s pause therefore spells a golden opportunity for Opendoor. Zillow hasn’t yet said when it will resume new home purchases, but an email from a Zillow Offers Advisor to an agent seen by the Journal suggests the pause will last through the end of 2021 at the least.</p><p><blockquote>iBuying投资者可能不会惊慌失措，而是希望将Zillow的消息视为其竞争对手的机会。Opendoor目前活跃在44个市场，包括Zillow 25个市场中除两个市场外的所有市场。因此，Zillow的暂停对Opendoor来说意味着一个千载难逢的机会。Zillow尚未表示何时恢复新房购买，但《华尔街日报》看到的Zillow Offers顾问发给经纪人的一封电子邮件表明，暂停将至少持续到2021年底。</blockquote></p><p> Zillow’s mismanagement also highlights a key strength for smaller competitorOfferpad Solutions.OPAD+0.73%Led by a former real-estate agent, that company has longtouted its ground game. Offerpad, which is now a publicly traded company after closing its merger with a special-purpose acquisition company in September, seems to have been ahead of the curve in terms of understanding how many workers to employ and where, which repairs need to get done and how to execute them efficiently. An analysis by BTIG Research shows Offerpad’s contribution profit per home sold was over 4.7 times that of Zillow’s last year.</p><p><blockquote>Zillow的管理不善也凸显了规模较小的竞争对手Offerpad Solutions的一个关键优势。该公司由一位前房地产经纪人领导，长期以来一直吹捧其地面游戏。Offerpad在9月份完成了与一家特殊目的收购公司的合并后，现在是一家上市公司，在了解雇用多少工人、在哪里、需要进行哪些维修以及如何有效地执行这些维修方面，它似乎已经走在了潮流的前面。BTIG Research的一项分析显示，Offerpad每售出一套房屋的贡献利润是Zillow去年的4.7倍以上。</blockquote></p><p> But the news is also a signal that investors may want to start to tread more lightly around what has thus far been a banner year for the sector. The reality is that iBuyers have incredible amounts of market data, can plan acquisitions and inventory months in advance and have a number of levers to pull to slow or accelerate the business, according to Mike DelPrete, a real estate tech strategist and scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder. Given that, it is unusual that Zillow’s pause happened so suddenly and across all its markets.</p><p><blockquote>但这一消息也是一个信号，表明投资者可能希望开始对该行业迄今为止表现出色的一年采取更轻松的态度。房地产技术策略师兼学者迈克·德尔普雷特(Mike DelPrete)表示，现实情况是，iBuyers拥有令人难以置信的大量市场数据，可以提前几个月计划收购和库存，并拥有许多杠杆来减缓或加速业务。科罗拉多大学博尔德分校的住院医师。有鉴于此，Zillow的暂停发生得如此突然且遍及其所有市场是不寻常的。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. real-estate market has finallystarted to cool a bit. On Friday, Redfin reported the median home sale price rose 14% year-over-year in September—the lowest growth rate since December 2020. Meanwhile, closed home sales and new listings of homes for sale both fell from a year earlier, by 5% and 9% respectively.</p><p><blockquote>美国房地产市场终于开始降温。周五，Redfin报告称，9月份房屋销售价格中位数同比上涨14%，为2020年12月以来的最低增长率。与此同时，已完成房屋销售和新挂牌待售房屋均较上年同期下降，分别下降5%和9%。</blockquote></p><p> Thus far, no other major iBuyer has said it was pausing new acquisitions this year. As Mr. DelPrete notes, it is possible Opendoor and Offerpad began to slow their own buying commitments as the market started to change, whileZillow missed the signs. More likely, Zillow, which has consistently prophesied what it calls the “Great Reshuffling” amid a permanence in remote work, just neglected to do its own reshuffling on the ground.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，还没有其他主要iBuyer表示今年将暂停新的收购。正如DelPrete先生指出的那样，随着市场开始发生变化，Opendoor和Offerpad可能开始放慢自己的购买承诺，而Zillow则错过了这些迹象。更有可能的是，Zillow一直预言在远程工作的持久性中进行评级的“大洗牌”，只是忽略了在地面上进行自己的洗牌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115206110","content_text":"Zillow slipped over 11% in early trading after after the online real-estate company told Bloomberg that it won’t purchase homes for the rest of the year, saying that it was “beyond operational capacity.”\n\nRelated: Zillow Gets Outplayed at Its Own Game\nZillow, it seems, has over-flipped.\nThe company that has prided itself on its technology to outsource a lot of human work is suddenly referring the work right back to humans. Zillow Group’s automated home-flipping business has stopped pursuing new home acquisitions temporarily, Bloomberg reported on Sunday. In a statement for this article, a Zillow spokesperson said in an email it is “beyond operational capacity in [its] Zillow Offers business.” Zillow said it is now connecting homeowners looking to sell their home to its local Premier Agent partners.\nThe pause seems to be a case of poor planning—a surprising lapse for a company that has been in the online real-estate business for nearly 17 years. Rather than a cash issue, Zillow is saying it experienced supply constraints having to do with on-the-ground workers and vendors. Leave it to atechnology companyto develop an algorithm to predict home values, but mismanage the human aspect of its business.\nTo add insult to injury, Zillow’s biggest competitor seems to be handling high volumes just fine.Opendoor TechnologiesOPEN+2.52%said it is “open for business and continues to scale and grow,” noting it has worked hard over the past seven years to ensure it can continue to deliver as it expands. While Zillow long predates Opendoor as a company, it mainly offered an online marketing platform for agents before adding iBuying in 2018.\nZillow said it purchased a record number of homes in the second quarter at 3,805, but that still paled in comparison to the 8,494 homes Opendoor purchased in the same period. It doesn’t seem as though the near-term business hascompletely flopped: The company says it is continuing to process the purchases of homes from sellers who are already under contract as quickly as possible. That means home purchases could still continue to grow sequentially in the fourth quarter, even with the pause. Zillow hasn’t publicly commented on its fourth-quarter buying forecast, but has said its third-quarter outlook implies a “step up” in purchase activity.\nRather than flip out, iBuying investors may want to look at Zillow’s news as an opportunity for its competitors. Opendoor is now active in 44 markets, including all but two of Zillow’s 25 markets. Zillow’s pause therefore spells a golden opportunity for Opendoor. Zillow hasn’t yet said when it will resume new home purchases, but an email from a Zillow Offers Advisor to an agent seen by the Journal suggests the pause will last through the end of 2021 at the least.\nZillow’s mismanagement also highlights a key strength for smaller competitorOfferpad Solutions.OPAD+0.73%Led by a former real-estate agent, that company has longtouted its ground game. Offerpad, which is now a publicly traded company after closing its merger with a special-purpose acquisition company in September, seems to have been ahead of the curve in terms of understanding how many workers to employ and where, which repairs need to get done and how to execute them efficiently. An analysis by BTIG Research shows Offerpad’s contribution profit per home sold was over 4.7 times that of Zillow’s last year.\nBut the news is also a signal that investors may want to start to tread more lightly around what has thus far been a banner year for the sector. The reality is that iBuyers have incredible amounts of market data, can plan acquisitions and inventory months in advance and have a number of levers to pull to slow or accelerate the business, according to Mike DelPrete, a real estate tech strategist and scholar-in-residence at the University of Colorado Boulder. Given that, it is unusual that Zillow’s pause happened so suddenly and across all its markets.\nThe U.S. real-estate market has finallystarted to cool a bit. On Friday, Redfin reported the median home sale price rose 14% year-over-year in September—the lowest growth rate since December 2020. Meanwhile, closed home sales and new listings of homes for sale both fell from a year earlier, by 5% and 9% respectively.\nThus far, no other major iBuyer has said it was pausing new acquisitions this year. As Mr. DelPrete notes, it is possible Opendoor and Offerpad began to slow their own buying commitments as the market started to change, whileZillow missed the signs. More likely, Zillow, which has consistently prophesied what it calls the “Great Reshuffling” amid a permanence in remote work, just neglected to do its own reshuffling on the ground.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828422905,"gmtCreate":1633938549581,"gmtModify":1633938549648,"author":{"id":"4093925014008610","authorId":"4093925014008610","name":"SebestianT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28fe16ee135652599bb75c14ffd8d597","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4093925014008610","idStr":"4093925014008610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828422905","repostId":"1132567957","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1132567957","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633937986,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1132567957?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 15:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1132567957","media":"Barrons","summary":"The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survi","content":"<p>The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survive earnings season?</p><p><blockquote>股市在过去一周的债务上限之争和油价飙升中幸存下来。它能挺过财报季吗？</blockquote></p><p> The week began with everything falling apart—energy prices were skyrocketing and the U.S. appeared on the verge of default. It ended with lower oil prices, thanks to Vladimir Putin, of all people, and the debt-ceiling being pushed off to December. It even brushed off what looked to be a surprisingly weak jobs report to—wait for it—finish higher.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，一切都分崩离析——能源价格飙升，美国似乎濒临违约。多亏了弗拉基米尔·普京，油价下跌，债务上限被推迟到12月。它甚至无视了看似令人惊讶的疲软就业报告——等着瞧吧——收盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;gained 1.2% this past week, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose 0.8%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;squeaked out a 0.1% advance. For the Dow, it was&nbsp;just the second rise in the past six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上周上涨1.2%，标准普尔500指数上涨0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.1%。对于道琼斯指数来说，这只是过去六周内的第二次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But let’s admit something right here, right now. None of this is normal—not the politics, and certainly not the economic data. September’s jobs report was a disaster—but not because of the disappointing headline number. Yes, the U.S. added just 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 500,000, and that’s the kind of miss that would suggest a slowing economy. The number, though, was close to meaningless, given the seasonal adjustments—which may have skewed it lower—and by comparison to the household survey, which showed more than 500,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. Try making an investment decision off that.</p><p><blockquote>但是让我们现在就承认一些事情。这些都不正常——政治不正常，经济数据当然也不正常。九月份的就业报告是一场灾难——但并不是因为令人失望的头条数据。是的，美国9月份仅增加了194,000个就业岗位，远低于预期的500,000个，这种失误表明经济正在放缓。不过，考虑到季节性调整（这可能会使其偏低），并且与家庭调查相比，这个数字几乎毫无意义。家庭调查显示，随着失业率降至4.8%，新增就业岗位超过50万个。尝试以此为基础做出投资决定。</blockquote></p><p> “Investors should be careful to temper their reactions to the non-farm payroll report, which is quite volatile and typically undergoes material revisions in the months following the initial release,” writes Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)写道：“投资者应该小心缓和对非农就业报告的反应，该报告相当不稳定，通常会在首次发布后的几个月内进行重大修订。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market tried to make the best of it. While bonds initially saw a bit of buying, pushing yields down, the 10-year Treasury closed the week with a yield of 1.6%, its highest since June, defying what appeared to be bad news. The Dow finished Friday down 0.03%, while the S&amp;P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场还是试图充分利用它。虽然债券最初出现了一些买盘，压低了收益率，但10年期国债收益率本周收于1.6%，为6月份以来的最高水平，无视了看似坏消息的影响。道琼斯指数周五收盘下跌0.03%，标普500下跌0.2%，纳斯达克下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That the stock market would do virtually nothing makes sense given the complexity of the employment picture. Job openings remain high, but the number of people leaving the workforce only seems to increase. Even rising pay—average hourly wages rose 4.6%—hasn’t been able to bring workers back. And that means that the labor market, despite an unemployment rate well above prepandemic levels of 3.5%, might actually be much tighter than it looks.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到就业形势的复杂性，股市几乎无所作为是有道理的。职位空缺仍然很高，但离开劳动力市场的人数似乎只会增加。即使工资上涨——平均时薪上涨4.6%——也没能让工人回来。这意味着，尽管失业率远高于疫情前3.5%的水平，但劳动力市场实际上可能比看起来要紧张得多。</blockquote></p><p> The reality of rising costs, from labor and raw materials, has begun worrying investors. Just 25% of investors expect corporate profit margins to expand over the next six to 12 months, says an RBC Capital Markets survey, down from 39% in June. Some 36% now expect margins to contract, up from 19%. The respondents are also becoming more pessimistic about the market—28% now describe themselves as bearish, up from 14%.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力和原材料成本上升的现实已经开始让投资者感到担忧。加拿大皇家银行资本市场的一项调查显示，只有25%的投资者预计企业利润率将在未来6至12个月内扩大，低于6月份的39%。目前约36%的人预计利润率将收缩，高于19%。受访者对市场也变得更加悲观——28%的人现在表示自己看跌，高于14%。</blockquote></p><p> The worst may not be over yet, writes Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “The results of our own survey support our belief that the unwind in institutional investor sentiment that’s been underway hasn’t fully played out yet, which may contribute to further volatility in the broader U.S. equity market in the near term,” she explains.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)写道，最糟糕的时期可能还没有结束。她解释说：“我们自己的调查结果支持了我们的信念，即机构投资者情绪的缓和尚未完全显现，这可能会导致短期内美国股市进一步波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a first read on those fears when earnings season starts this coming week. The banks get all the attention, and for good reason. Reports from&nbsp;JPMorgan Chase&nbsp;(ticker: JPM),Bank of America&nbsp;(BAC), and&nbsp;Citigroup&nbsp;(C) should help give the market a read on the strength of the U.S. economy, the demand for loans, and even consumer spending. (Financial-sector profits are expected to grow by 18%.) But other companies will give investors their own read on costs and margins.Fastenal&nbsp;(FAST), a distributor of industrial fasteners, is expected to report a profit of 42 cents a share on Monday, though it was downgraded by&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;on Friday over concerns about rising wages and freight costs.Delta Air Lines&nbsp;(DAL) should give a read on wage pressures, as well as the demand for travel.</p><p><blockquote>当下周财报季开始时，投资者将首次了解这些担忧。银行得到了所有的关注，这是有充分理由的。摩根大通（股票代码：JPM）、美国银行（BAC）和花旗集团（C）的报告应该有助于让市场了解美国经济的实力、贷款需求甚至消费者支出。（金融业利润预计将增长18%。）但其他公司将向投资者提供自己对成本和利润率的看法。工业紧固件分销商Fastenal(FAST)预计周一将公布每股42美分的利润，尽管由于担心工资和运费上涨，富国银行周五下调了该公司的评级。达美航空(DAL)应该对工资压力以及旅行需求进行解读。</blockquote></p><p> Just don’t expect the same kind of earnings season we’ve experienced since Covid. Since the lockdowns, U.S. corporations have, for the most part, reported massive earnings growth and sizable “beats,” but something has changed. Analysts have stopped revising their earnings expectations higher and have been lowering them instead. Earnings are still expected to rise more than 20% from the third quarter one year ago, although the rate of growth is slowing. And with stocks still pricey—the S&amp;P 500 is trading at 20.6 times 12-month forward earnings—there is little room for error. “There are a lot of adjustments that need to go on,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US. “The market has more downside than upside in the short term.”</p><p><blockquote>只是不要指望我们会经历自新冠疫情以来经历的那种财报季。自封锁以来，美国企业在很大程度上报告了大幅的盈利增长和可观的“增长”，但有些事情已经发生了变化。分析师已不再上调盈利预期，而是下调盈利预期。尽管增长速度正在放缓，但预计盈利仍将比一年前的第三季度增长20%以上。由于股票仍然昂贵——标普500的交易价格是12个月预期市盈率的20.6倍——几乎没有犯错的余地。CIBC Private Wealth US首席投资官戴夫·多纳贝迪安(Dave Donabedian)表示：“需要进行很多调整。”“市场短期内下行空间大于上行空间。”</blockquote></p><p> The new normal? It might just be more volatility.</p><p><blockquote>新常态？可能只是波动性更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Stock Market Survived a Scary Week. Why This Week Could Be Scarier.<blockquote>股市度过了可怕的一周。为什么这周会更可怕。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-11 15:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survive earnings season?</p><p><blockquote>股市在过去一周的债务上限之争和油价飙升中幸存下来。它能挺过财报季吗？</blockquote></p><p> The week began with everything falling apart—energy prices were skyrocketing and the U.S. appeared on the verge of default. It ended with lower oil prices, thanks to Vladimir Putin, of all people, and the debt-ceiling being pushed off to December. It even brushed off what looked to be a surprisingly weak jobs report to—wait for it—finish higher.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，一切都分崩离析——能源价格飙升，美国似乎濒临违约。多亏了弗拉基米尔·普京，油价下跌，债务上限被推迟到12月。它甚至无视了看似令人惊讶的疲软就业报告——等着瞧吧——收盘走高。</blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;gained 1.2% this past week, while the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;rose 0.8%, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;squeaked out a 0.1% advance. For the Dow, it was&nbsp;just the second rise in the past six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上周上涨1.2%，标准普尔500指数上涨0.8%，纳斯达克综合指数小幅上涨0.1%。对于道琼斯指数来说，这只是过去六周内的第二次上涨。</blockquote></p><p> But let’s admit something right here, right now. None of this is normal—not the politics, and certainly not the economic data. September’s jobs report was a disaster—but not because of the disappointing headline number. Yes, the U.S. added just 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 500,000, and that’s the kind of miss that would suggest a slowing economy. The number, though, was close to meaningless, given the seasonal adjustments—which may have skewed it lower—and by comparison to the household survey, which showed more than 500,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. Try making an investment decision off that.</p><p><blockquote>但是让我们现在就承认一些事情。这些都不正常——政治不正常，经济数据当然也不正常。九月份的就业报告是一场灾难——但并不是因为令人失望的头条数据。是的，美国9月份仅增加了194,000个就业岗位，远低于预期的500,000个，这种失误表明经济正在放缓。不过，考虑到季节性调整（这可能会使其偏低），并且与家庭调查相比，这个数字几乎毫无意义。家庭调查显示，随着失业率降至4.8%，新增就业岗位超过50万个。尝试以此为基础做出投资决定。</blockquote></p><p> “Investors should be careful to temper their reactions to the non-farm payroll report, which is quite volatile and typically undergoes material revisions in the months following the initial release,” writes Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>Glenmede私人财富首席投资官贾森·普莱德(Jason Pride)写道：“投资者应该小心缓和对非农就业报告的反应，该报告相当不稳定，通常会在首次发布后的几个月内进行重大修订。”</blockquote></p><p> Still, the market tried to make the best of it. While bonds initially saw a bit of buying, pushing yields down, the 10-year Treasury closed the week with a yield of 1.6%, its highest since June, defying what appeared to be bad news. The Dow finished Friday down 0.03%, while the S&amp;P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，市场还是试图充分利用它。虽然债券最初出现了一些买盘，压低了收益率，但10年期国债收益率本周收于1.6%，为6月份以来的最高水平，无视了看似坏消息的影响。道琼斯指数周五收盘下跌0.03%，标普500下跌0.2%，纳斯达克下跌0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> That the stock market would do virtually nothing makes sense given the complexity of the employment picture. Job openings remain high, but the number of people leaving the workforce only seems to increase. Even rising pay—average hourly wages rose 4.6%—hasn’t been able to bring workers back. And that means that the labor market, despite an unemployment rate well above prepandemic levels of 3.5%, might actually be much tighter than it looks.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到就业形势的复杂性，股市几乎无所作为是有道理的。职位空缺仍然很高，但离开劳动力市场的人数似乎只会增加。即使工资上涨——平均时薪上涨4.6%——也没能让工人回来。这意味着，尽管失业率远高于疫情前3.5%的水平，但劳动力市场实际上可能比看起来要紧张得多。</blockquote></p><p> The reality of rising costs, from labor and raw materials, has begun worrying investors. Just 25% of investors expect corporate profit margins to expand over the next six to 12 months, says an RBC Capital Markets survey, down from 39% in June. Some 36% now expect margins to contract, up from 19%. The respondents are also becoming more pessimistic about the market—28% now describe themselves as bearish, up from 14%.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力和原材料成本上升的现实已经开始让投资者感到担忧。加拿大皇家银行资本市场的一项调查显示，只有25%的投资者预计企业利润率将在未来6至12个月内扩大，低于6月份的39%。目前约36%的人预计利润率将收缩，高于19%。受访者对市场也变得更加悲观——28%的人现在表示自己看跌，高于14%。</blockquote></p><p> The worst may not be over yet, writes Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “The results of our own survey support our belief that the unwind in institutional investor sentiment that’s been underway hasn’t fully played out yet, which may contribute to further volatility in the broader U.S. equity market in the near term,” she explains.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)写道，最糟糕的时期可能还没有结束。她解释说：“我们自己的调查结果支持了我们的信念，即机构投资者情绪的缓和尚未完全显现，这可能会导致短期内美国股市进一步波动。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a first read on those fears when earnings season starts this coming week. The banks get all the attention, and for good reason. Reports from&nbsp;JPMorgan Chase&nbsp;(ticker: JPM),Bank of America&nbsp;(BAC), and&nbsp;Citigroup&nbsp;(C) should help give the market a read on the strength of the U.S. economy, the demand for loans, and even consumer spending. (Financial-sector profits are expected to grow by 18%.) But other companies will give investors their own read on costs and margins.Fastenal&nbsp;(FAST), a distributor of industrial fasteners, is expected to report a profit of 42 cents a share on Monday, though it was downgraded by&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;on Friday over concerns about rising wages and freight costs.Delta Air Lines&nbsp;(DAL) should give a read on wage pressures, as well as the demand for travel.</p><p><blockquote>当下周财报季开始时，投资者将首次了解这些担忧。银行得到了所有的关注，这是有充分理由的。摩根大通（股票代码：JPM）、美国银行（BAC）和花旗集团（C）的报告应该有助于让市场了解美国经济的实力、贷款需求甚至消费者支出。（金融业利润预计将增长18%。）但其他公司将向投资者提供自己对成本和利润率的看法。工业紧固件分销商Fastenal(FAST)预计周一将公布每股42美分的利润，尽管由于担心工资和运费上涨，富国银行周五下调了该公司的评级。达美航空(DAL)应该对工资压力以及旅行需求进行解读。</blockquote></p><p> Just don’t expect the same kind of earnings season we’ve experienced since Covid. Since the lockdowns, U.S. corporations have, for the most part, reported massive earnings growth and sizable “beats,” but something has changed. Analysts have stopped revising their earnings expectations higher and have been lowering them instead. Earnings are still expected to rise more than 20% from the third quarter one year ago, although the rate of growth is slowing. And with stocks still pricey—the S&amp;P 500 is trading at 20.6 times 12-month forward earnings—there is little room for error. “There are a lot of adjustments that need to go on,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US. “The market has more downside than upside in the short term.”</p><p><blockquote>只是不要指望我们会经历自新冠疫情以来经历的那种财报季。自封锁以来，美国企业在很大程度上报告了大幅的盈利增长和可观的“增长”，但有些事情已经发生了变化。分析师已不再上调盈利预期，而是下调盈利预期。尽管增长速度正在放缓，但预计盈利仍将比一年前的第三季度增长20%以上。由于股票仍然昂贵——标普500的交易价格是12个月预期市盈率的20.6倍——几乎没有犯错的余地。CIBC Private Wealth US首席投资官戴夫·多纳贝迪安(Dave Donabedian)表示：“需要进行很多调整。”“市场短期内下行空间大于上行空间。”</blockquote></p><p> The new normal? It might just be more volatility.</p><p><blockquote>新常态？可能只是波动性更大。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-earnings-season-51633738642?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-earnings-season-51633738642?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1132567957","content_text":"The stock market survived the debt-ceiling fight and an oil-price spike this past week. Can it survive earnings season?\nThe week began with everything falling apart—energy prices were skyrocketing and the U.S. appeared on the verge of default. It ended with lower oil prices, thanks to Vladimir Putin, of all people, and the debt-ceiling being pushed off to December. It even brushed off what looked to be a surprisingly weak jobs report to—wait for it—finish higher.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.2% this past week, while the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite squeaked out a 0.1% advance. For the Dow, it was just the second rise in the past six weeks.\nBut let’s admit something right here, right now. None of this is normal—not the politics, and certainly not the economic data. September’s jobs report was a disaster—but not because of the disappointing headline number. Yes, the U.S. added just 194,000 jobs in September, well below forecasts for 500,000, and that’s the kind of miss that would suggest a slowing economy. The number, though, was close to meaningless, given the seasonal adjustments—which may have skewed it lower—and by comparison to the household survey, which showed more than 500,000 new jobs as the unemployment rate fell to 4.8%. Try making an investment decision off that.\n“Investors should be careful to temper their reactions to the non-farm payroll report, which is quite volatile and typically undergoes material revisions in the months following the initial release,” writes Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth at Glenmede.\nStill, the market tried to make the best of it. While bonds initially saw a bit of buying, pushing yields down, the 10-year Treasury closed the week with a yield of 1.6%, its highest since June, defying what appeared to be bad news. The Dow finished Friday down 0.03%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% and the Nasdaq declined 0.5%.\nThat the stock market would do virtually nothing makes sense given the complexity of the employment picture. Job openings remain high, but the number of people leaving the workforce only seems to increase. Even rising pay—average hourly wages rose 4.6%—hasn’t been able to bring workers back. And that means that the labor market, despite an unemployment rate well above prepandemic levels of 3.5%, might actually be much tighter than it looks.\nThe reality of rising costs, from labor and raw materials, has begun worrying investors. Just 25% of investors expect corporate profit margins to expand over the next six to 12 months, says an RBC Capital Markets survey, down from 39% in June. Some 36% now expect margins to contract, up from 19%. The respondents are also becoming more pessimistic about the market—28% now describe themselves as bearish, up from 14%.\nThe worst may not be over yet, writes Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. “The results of our own survey support our belief that the unwind in institutional investor sentiment that’s been underway hasn’t fully played out yet, which may contribute to further volatility in the broader U.S. equity market in the near term,” she explains.\nInvestors will get a first read on those fears when earnings season starts this coming week. The banks get all the attention, and for good reason. Reports from JPMorgan Chase (ticker: JPM),Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C) should help give the market a read on the strength of the U.S. economy, the demand for loans, and even consumer spending. (Financial-sector profits are expected to grow by 18%.) But other companies will give investors their own read on costs and margins.Fastenal (FAST), a distributor of industrial fasteners, is expected to report a profit of 42 cents a share on Monday, though it was downgraded by Wells Fargo on Friday over concerns about rising wages and freight costs.Delta Air Lines (DAL) should give a read on wage pressures, as well as the demand for travel.\nJust don’t expect the same kind of earnings season we’ve experienced since Covid. Since the lockdowns, U.S. corporations have, for the most part, reported massive earnings growth and sizable “beats,” but something has changed. Analysts have stopped revising their earnings expectations higher and have been lowering them instead. Earnings are still expected to rise more than 20% from the third quarter one year ago, although the rate of growth is slowing. And with stocks still pricey—the S&P 500 is trading at 20.6 times 12-month forward earnings—there is little room for error. “There are a lot of adjustments that need to go on,” says Dave Donabedian, chief investment officer at CIBC Private Wealth US. “The market has more downside than upside in the short term.”\nThe new normal? It might just be more volatility.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}