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- ronnie0002ronnie0002
  ·08-31
  高盛经典诱多发言基本面还没跟上情绪必须先营造到
  高盛交易员的市场观察：这个夏天真正的主角是中国股市
  高盛顶级交易员Mark Wilson指出，2025年夏季中国股市成为最意外亮点。中国股市表现超出预期，如今沪指破十年新高，散户融资近2015年峰值，成交额连续12天超2万亿元创纪录。而且从更长周期来看，中国股市的净多头仓位仍处于较低水平，5年区间仅处56分位。
  高盛交易员的市场观察：这个夏天真正的主角是中国股市
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为，中国股市夏季表现超预期，但依然估值较低，净多头仓位比例偏低。</p><p>高盛交易员Mark Wilson近日指出，回顾2025年迄今的表现，中国股市无疑是夏季最大的亮点之一。中国股市表现远超预期，成为市场中最意外的交易机会之一。</p><p><strong>Wilson提到，中国股市依然保持低估值，持仓比例偏低，而交易动能持续增强。这种市场状态本身可能推动股市自我强化，形成反身性效应。</strong></p><p>具体来看，沪指已经突破10年新高，散户融资余额逼近2015年股市泡沫时期的峰值。A股现货成交额连续12天突破2万亿元人民币，创下历史最长纪录，而本周三高盛<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002540\">亚太</a>业务的成交额也创下最大单日成交量。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78cff79ac318e96a75a576fd0b630af0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"/></p><p>此外，从更长周期来看，<strong>中国股市的净多头仓位仍处于较低水平（5年区间仅处56分位）</strong>。本月以来，高盛的自营业务录得历史最高的资金净流入，主要来自多头买盘。总体来看，中国股市的低估值与日益活跃的交易值得关注。</p><h2 id=\"id_1803869421\">美股市场：降息预期推动上涨</h2><p>美股方面，Wilson分析指出，<strong>降息预期已成为推动股市上涨的关键因素</strong>。市场预计，美联储将于9月开始降息，定价概率高达85%。而随着美国就业数据越来越不稳定，<strong>即将公布的8月非农数据（下周五）和9月11日的CPI数据将变得尤为重要。</strong></p><p>值得注意的是，尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数成分股公司第二季度营收同比增长4.8%，但经汇率调整后，销售增长速度有所放缓。尤其是中小型公司的实际营收出现负增长。</p><p>从现在到年底，流动性风险的管理将成为美联储和投资者的重要关注点。7月的FOMC会议纪要提到，TGA（财政账户）重建可能会影响货币市场的波动和资金状况。尤其是随着TGA重建和SLR（杠杆率规定）规则变化的交替，以及量化紧缩（QT）结束，这些都值得关注。<strong>高盛认为，QT可能会在10月结束，因为资金压力加剧。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_52979516\">欧洲市场：意大利和法国风险溢价缩小</h2><p>尽管8月美联储降息预期成为焦点，但今年夏季更具结构性的重要利率变化发生在欧洲。今年夏季，欧洲市场经历了结构性的变化。自1999年欧元成立以来，欧洲债市核心与外围国家的利差一直存在，但现在这种差异正逐渐缩小。特别是意大利BTP债券与法国OAT债券之间的风险溢价差距正在缩小，这种历史性差异即将消失。</p><p>与此同时，欧洲的政治动荡也为市场增添了不确定性。法国总理贝鲁的“不信任投票”提案（9月8日）引发了主权风险溢价，而荷兰政府也在考虑类似的投票问题，英国也面临着财政困境。尽管如此，欧元区PMI创15个月新高，并且2026年欧洲GDP增长预测与美国的差距正在缩小，显示出欧洲经济的复苏势头，甚至有些领先于市场普遍预测。</p><p>高盛指出，今年，欧洲银行股上涨了52%，但随着股价的上涨，投资者开始考虑如何保护这些收益，尤其是在政治和利率的变化可能影响股市的情况下。另外，对于法国国内股票，如果利差回到去年巴尔尼尔辞职后的水平，法国股市可能面临10-15%的下行风险。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛交易员的市场观察：这个夏天真正的主角是中国股市\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-30 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754602><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，中国股市夏季表现超预期，但依然估值较低，净多头仓位比例偏低。高盛交易员Mark Wilson近日指出，回顾2025年迄今的表现，中国股市无疑是夏季最大的亮点之一。中国股市表现远超预期，成为市场中最意外的交易机会之一。Wilson提到，中国股市依然保持低估值，持仓比例偏低，而交易动能持续增强。这种市场状态本身可能推动股市自我强化，形成反身性效应。具体来看，沪指已经突破10年新高，散户融资...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754602\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4a03a5ae5cfc1aad727ce9e6d2b27bb","relate_stocks":{"LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","YINN":"三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) 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USD","BK4614":"Manus概念股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3754602","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2563002830","content_text":"高盛认为，中国股市夏季表现超预期，但依然估值较低，净多头仓位比例偏低。高盛交易员Mark Wilson近日指出，回顾2025年迄今的表现，中国股市无疑是夏季最大的亮点之一。中国股市表现远超预期，成为市场中最意外的交易机会之一。Wilson提到，中国股市依然保持低估值，持仓比例偏低，而交易动能持续增强。这种市场状态本身可能推动股市自我强化，形成反身性效应。具体来看，沪指已经突破10年新高，散户融资余额逼近2015年股市泡沫时期的峰值。A股现货成交额连续12天突破2万亿元人民币，创下历史最长纪录，而本周三高盛亚太业务的成交额也创下最大单日成交量。此外，从更长周期来看，中国股市的净多头仓位仍处于较低水平（5年区间仅处56分位）。本月以来，高盛的自营业务录得历史最高的资金净流入，主要来自多头买盘。总体来看，中国股市的低估值与日益活跃的交易值得关注。美股市场：降息预期推动上涨美股方面，Wilson分析指出，降息预期已成为推动股市上涨的关键因素。市场预计，美联储将于9月开始降息，定价概率高达85%。而随着美国就业数据越来越不稳定，即将公布的8月非农数据（下周五）和9月11日的CPI数据将变得尤为重要。值得注意的是，尽管标普500指数成分股公司第二季度营收同比增长4.8%，但经汇率调整后，销售增长速度有所放缓。尤其是中小型公司的实际营收出现负增长。从现在到年底，流动性风险的管理将成为美联储和投资者的重要关注点。7月的FOMC会议纪要提到，TGA（财政账户）重建可能会影响货币市场的波动和资金状况。尤其是随着TGA重建和SLR（杠杆率规定）规则变化的交替，以及量化紧缩（QT）结束，这些都值得关注。高盛认为，QT可能会在10月结束，因为资金压力加剧。欧洲市场：意大利和法国风险溢价缩小尽管8月美联储降息预期成为焦点，但今年夏季更具结构性的重要利率变化发生在欧洲。今年夏季，欧洲市场经历了结构性的变化。自1999年欧元成立以来，欧洲债市核心与外围国家的利差一直存在，但现在这种差异正逐渐缩小。特别是意大利BTP债券与法国OAT债券之间的风险溢价差距正在缩小，这种历史性差异即将消失。与此同时，欧洲的政治动荡也为市场增添了不确定性。法国总理贝鲁的“不信任投票”提案（9月8日）引发了主权风险溢价，而荷兰政府也在考虑类似的投票问题，英国也面临着财政困境。尽管如此，欧元区PMI创15个月新高，并且2026年欧洲GDP增长预测与美国的差距正在缩小，显示出欧洲经济的复苏势头，甚至有些领先于市场普遍预测。高盛指出，今年，欧洲银行股上涨了52%，但随着股价的上涨，投资者开始考虑如何保护这些收益，尤其是在政治和利率的变化可能影响股市的情况下。另外，对于法国国内股票，如果利差回到去年巴尔尼尔辞职后的水平，法国股市可能面临10-15%的下行风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":1,"YINN":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":206,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}