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CTSM
CTSM
·
2021-12-27
Nice. Thanks for the article.
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CTSM
CTSM
·
2021-12-27
Nice
[强]
Micron Stock Rallies as Outlook Tops Street Estimates<blockquote>美光科技股价上涨，前景超出华尔街预期</blockquote>
Micron Technology shares headed higher after the memory-chip company posted strong results, while pr
Micron Stock Rallies as Outlook Tops Street Estimates<blockquote>美光科技股价上涨，前景超出华尔街预期</blockquote>
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CTSM
CTSM
·
2021-12-20
Champs [Wow]
Society Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading<blockquote>Society Pass在盘前交易中飙升近70%</blockquote>
Society Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading. Society Pass Incorporated, a leading Southeast
Society Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading<blockquote>Society Pass在盘前交易中飙升近70%</blockquote>
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CTSM
CTSM
·
2021-12-20
Wow…[Surprised]
Verso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading<blockquote>Verso股价在盘前交易中上涨30.67%</blockquote>
Verso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading.Verso inks merger agreement under which BillerudKors
Verso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading<blockquote>Verso股价在盘前交易中上涨30.67%</blockquote>
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CTSM
CTSM
·
2021-12-20
Thanks for the heads up! 🙏🏻
EV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%.<blockquote>电动汽车股在盘前交易中下跌，特斯拉跌超2%。</blockquote>
EV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%. Lucid, Nio, Li Auto and XPeng
EV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%.<blockquote>电动汽车股在盘前交易中下跌，特斯拉跌超2%。</blockquote>
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CTSM
CTSM
·
2021-12-20
Gravity defying fruit! Go Apple go!
Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>
Summary With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to a
Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>
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CTSM
CTSM
·
2021-12-20
[OMG]
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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CTSM
CTSM
·
2021-12-20
Wow… almost like a TV drama… Thanks forthe report.
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CTSM
CTSM
·
2021-12-20
Noted.
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CTSM
·
2021-12-20
Awesome report! Thanks
Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票：较高点下跌43%，现在值得买入吗？</blockquote>
Summary Sea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the mar
Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票：较高点下跌43%，现在值得买入吗？</blockquote>
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Thanks for the article.","listText":"Nice. Thanks for the article.","text":"Nice. Thanks for the article.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696060786","repostId":"2194380177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3838,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696007603,"gmtCreate":1640569152039,"gmtModify":1640569152164,"author":{"id":"4095985983723070","authorId":"4095985983723070","name":"CTSM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095985983723070","idStr":"4095985983723070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice <a href=\"\">[强] </a>","listText":"Nice <a href=\"\">[强] </a>","text":"Nice [强] ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696007603","repostId":"1154367089","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1154367089","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640041733,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1154367089?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Stock Rallies as Outlook Tops Street Estimates<blockquote>美光科技股价上涨，前景超出华尔街预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154367089","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Micron Technology shares headed higher after the memory-chip company posted strong results, while pr","content":"<p>Micron Technology shares headed higher after the memory-chip company posted strong results, while providing better-than-expected forecasts for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>存储芯片公司美光科技公布强劲业绩后，该公司股价走高，同时对本季度的预测好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal first quarter, ended Dec. 2, Micron reported revenue of $7.69 billion, up 33% from a year ago, and marginally ahead of the company’s target of $7.65 billion, though down 7% sequentially. Non-GAAP profits were $2.16, above the company’s target of $2.10 a share.</p><p><blockquote>截至12月2日的第一财季，美光科技公布营收为76.9亿美元，同比增长33%，略高于公司76.5亿美元的目标，但环比下降7%。非GAAP利润为2.16美元，高于公司每股2.10美元的目标。</blockquote></p><p> In extended trading, the stock was up 6.2% to $87.14.</p><p><blockquote>盘后交易中，该股上涨6.2%，至87.14美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b8e920f4d2951731af2a972df72f89e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company said revenue from dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, was up 38% from a year ago, and accounted for 73% of total revenue in the quarter. NAND chips were up 19% from a year ago, and accounted for 24% of total revenue. The company said average selling prices were down in the low single digits on a sequential basis for DRAM, while dropping in the mid-single digits for NAND.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）收入同比增长38%，占本季度总收入的73%。NAND芯片同比增长19%，占总收入的24%。该公司表示，DRAM的平均售价环比下降了低个位数，而NAND的平均售价下降了中个位数。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal second quarter, Micron projects revenue of $7.5 billion, give or take $200 million, with non-GAAP profits of $1.95 a share, plus or minus 10 cents. The Wall Street consensus had been for revenue of $7.27 billion and $1.86 in per-share profits. The company expects gross margin for the quarter of 46%, give or take a percentage point, down from 47% in the latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技预计第二财季营收为75亿美元，上下2亿美元，非GAAP利润为每股1.95美元，上下10美分。华尔街的共识是营收为72.7亿美元，每股利润为1.86美元。该公司预计本季度毛利率为46%，比最近一个季度的47%下降一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back $259 million of its shares in the latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，最近一个季度回购了价值2.59亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Micron delivered solid fiscal first quarter results led by strong product portfolio momentum,” Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in a statement. “We are now shipping our industry-leading DRAM and NAND technologies across major end markets, and we delivered new solutions to data center, client, mobile, graphics and automotive customers.”</p><p><blockquote>美光首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉(Sanjay Mehrotra)在一份声明中表示：“在强劲的产品组合势头的推动下，美光第一财季业绩稳健。”“我们现在正在向主要终端市场提供行业领先的DRAM和NAND技术，并为数据中心、客户端、移动、图形和汽车客户提供了新的解决方案。”</blockquote></p><p> In a presentation prepared for a call with investors scheduled for late Monday with investors, Micron said it expects “record revenue with solid profitability” for the August 2022 fiscal year, with stronger shipment growth in the second half. The company expects capital spending for the year in the $11 billion to $12 billion range, up from $9.7 billion in fiscal 2021.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在为定于周一晚间与投资者举行的看涨期权准备的演示文稿中表示，预计2022年8月财年将实现“创纪录的收入和稳健的盈利能力”，下半年出货量增长将更加强劲。该公司预计今年的资本支出在110亿美元至120亿美元之间，高于2021财年的97亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Micron expects demand for DRAM storage capacity, or bit demand, will grow in the low 20% range in 2021, with mid-to-high teens growth in 2022. For NAND, the company sees growth in the high 30% range for this year, and about 30% for next year.</p><p><blockquote>美光预计，2021年对DRAM存储容量（即位需求）的需求将增长20%左右，2022年将实现中高增长。对于NAND，该公司预计今年将增长30%左右，明年将增长30%左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Stock Rallies as Outlook Tops Street Estimates<blockquote>美光科技股价上涨，前景超出华尔街预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Stock Rallies as Outlook Tops Street Estimates<blockquote>美光科技股价上涨，前景超出华尔街预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-21 07:08</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Micron Technology shares headed higher after the memory-chip company posted strong results, while providing better-than-expected forecasts for the current quarter.</p><p><blockquote>存储芯片公司美光科技公布强劲业绩后，该公司股价走高，同时对本季度的预测好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal first quarter, ended Dec. 2, Micron reported revenue of $7.69 billion, up 33% from a year ago, and marginally ahead of the company’s target of $7.65 billion, though down 7% sequentially. Non-GAAP profits were $2.16, above the company’s target of $2.10 a share.</p><p><blockquote>截至12月2日的第一财季，美光科技公布营收为76.9亿美元，同比增长33%，略高于公司76.5亿美元的目标，但环比下降7%。非GAAP利润为2.16美元，高于公司每股2.10美元的目标。</blockquote></p><p> In extended trading, the stock was up 6.2% to $87.14.</p><p><blockquote>盘后交易中，该股上涨6.2%，至87.14美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b8e920f4d2951731af2a972df72f89e\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company said revenue from dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, was up 38% from a year ago, and accounted for 73% of total revenue in the quarter. NAND chips were up 19% from a year ago, and accounted for 24% of total revenue. The company said average selling prices were down in the low single digits on a sequential basis for DRAM, while dropping in the mid-single digits for NAND.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）收入同比增长38%，占本季度总收入的73%。NAND芯片同比增长19%，占总收入的24%。该公司表示，DRAM的平均售价环比下降了低个位数，而NAND的平均售价下降了中个位数。</blockquote></p><p> For the fiscal second quarter, Micron projects revenue of $7.5 billion, give or take $200 million, with non-GAAP profits of $1.95 a share, plus or minus 10 cents. The Wall Street consensus had been for revenue of $7.27 billion and $1.86 in per-share profits. The company expects gross margin for the quarter of 46%, give or take a percentage point, down from 47% in the latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技预计第二财季营收为75亿美元，上下2亿美元，非GAAP利润为每股1.95美元，上下10美分。华尔街的共识是营收为72.7亿美元，每股利润为1.86美元。该公司预计本季度毛利率为46%，比最近一个季度的47%下降一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it bought back $259 million of its shares in the latest quarter.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，最近一个季度回购了价值2.59亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Micron delivered solid fiscal first quarter results led by strong product portfolio momentum,” Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in a statement. “We are now shipping our industry-leading DRAM and NAND technologies across major end markets, and we delivered new solutions to data center, client, mobile, graphics and automotive customers.”</p><p><blockquote>美光首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉(Sanjay Mehrotra)在一份声明中表示：“在强劲的产品组合势头的推动下，美光第一财季业绩稳健。”“我们现在正在向主要终端市场提供行业领先的DRAM和NAND技术，并为数据中心、客户端、移动、图形和汽车客户提供了新的解决方案。”</blockquote></p><p> In a presentation prepared for a call with investors scheduled for late Monday with investors, Micron said it expects “record revenue with solid profitability” for the August 2022 fiscal year, with stronger shipment growth in the second half. The company expects capital spending for the year in the $11 billion to $12 billion range, up from $9.7 billion in fiscal 2021.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在为定于周一晚间与投资者举行的看涨期权准备的演示文稿中表示，预计2022年8月财年将实现“创纪录的收入和稳健的盈利能力”，下半年出货量增长将更加强劲。该公司预计今年的资本支出在110亿美元至120亿美元之间，高于2021财年的97亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Micron expects demand for DRAM storage capacity, or bit demand, will grow in the low 20% range in 2021, with mid-to-high teens growth in 2022. For NAND, the company sees growth in the high 30% range for this year, and about 30% for next year.</p><p><blockquote>美光预计，2021年对DRAM存储容量（即位需求）的需求将增长20%左右，2022年将实现中高增长。对于NAND，该公司预计今年将增长30%左右，明年将增长30%左右。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154367089","content_text":"Micron Technology shares headed higher after the memory-chip company posted strong results, while providing better-than-expected forecasts for the current quarter.\nFor the fiscal first quarter, ended Dec. 2, Micron reported revenue of $7.69 billion, up 33% from a year ago, and marginally ahead of the company’s target of $7.65 billion, though down 7% sequentially. Non-GAAP profits were $2.16, above the company’s target of $2.10 a share.\nIn extended trading, the stock was up 6.2% to $87.14.\n\nThe company said revenue from dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, was up 38% from a year ago, and accounted for 73% of total revenue in the quarter. NAND chips were up 19% from a year ago, and accounted for 24% of total revenue. The company said average selling prices were down in the low single digits on a sequential basis for DRAM, while dropping in the mid-single digits for NAND.\nFor the fiscal second quarter, Micron projects revenue of $7.5 billion, give or take $200 million, with non-GAAP profits of $1.95 a share, plus or minus 10 cents. The Wall Street consensus had been for revenue of $7.27 billion and $1.86 in per-share profits. The company expects gross margin for the quarter of 46%, give or take a percentage point, down from 47% in the latest quarter.\nThe company also said it bought back $259 million of its shares in the latest quarter.\n“Micron delivered solid fiscal first quarter results led by strong product portfolio momentum,” Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said in a statement. “We are now shipping our industry-leading DRAM and NAND technologies across major end markets, and we delivered new solutions to data center, client, mobile, graphics and automotive customers.”\nIn a presentation prepared for a call with investors scheduled for late Monday with investors, Micron said it expects “record revenue with solid profitability” for the August 2022 fiscal year, with stronger shipment growth in the second half. The company expects capital spending for the year in the $11 billion to $12 billion range, up from $9.7 billion in fiscal 2021.\nMicron expects demand for DRAM storage capacity, or bit demand, will grow in the low 20% range in 2021, with mid-to-high teens growth in 2022. For NAND, the company sees growth in the high 30% range for this year, and about 30% for next year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693177728,"gmtCreate":1639993499612,"gmtModify":1639994609811,"author":{"id":"4095985983723070","authorId":"4095985983723070","name":"CTSM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095985983723070","idStr":"4095985983723070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Champs [Wow] ","listText":"Champs [Wow] ","text":"Champs [Wow]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693177728","repostId":"1150927570","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150927570","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639992300,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150927570?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 17:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Society Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading<blockquote>Society Pass在盘前交易中飙升近70%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150927570","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Society Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading.\n Society Pass Incorporated, a leading Southeast","content":"<p>Society Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Society Pass在盘前交易中飙升近70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72c0eec298020d16e124a5d7b04f0b58\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Society Pass Incorporated, a leading Southeast Asian data-driven loyalty platform, today announced that the Company will be added to the Russell 2000® Index, effective at the open of the U.S. markets on December 20, 2021, according to the preliminary list of IPO additions to the Russell indexes.</p><p><blockquote>东南亚领先的数据驱动忠诚度平台Society Pass Incorporated今天宣布，该公司将加入罗素2000®根据罗素指数IPO新增初步名单，该指数于2021年12月20日美国市场开盘时生效。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Society Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading<blockquote>Society Pass在盘前交易中飙升近70%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSociety Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading<blockquote>Society Pass在盘前交易中飙升近70%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-20 17:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Society Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Society Pass在盘前交易中飙升近70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72c0eec298020d16e124a5d7b04f0b58\" tg-width=\"716\" tg-height=\"615\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Society Pass Incorporated, a leading Southeast Asian data-driven loyalty platform, today announced that the Company will be added to the Russell 2000® Index, effective at the open of the U.S. markets on December 20, 2021, according to the preliminary list of IPO additions to the Russell indexes.</p><p><blockquote>东南亚领先的数据驱动忠诚度平台Society Pass Incorporated今天宣布，该公司将加入罗素2000®根据罗素指数IPO新增初步名单，该指数于2021年12月20日美国市场开盘时生效。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOPA":"Society Pass Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150927570","content_text":"Society Pass surged nearly 70% in premarket trading.\n Society Pass Incorporated, a leading Southeast Asian data-driven loyalty platform, today announced that the Company will be added to the Russell 2000® Index, effective at the open of the U.S. markets on December 20, 2021, according to the preliminary list of IPO additions to the Russell indexes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SOPA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693174521,"gmtCreate":1639993350305,"gmtModify":1639993921282,"author":{"id":"4095985983723070","authorId":"4095985983723070","name":"CTSM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095985983723070","idStr":"4095985983723070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow…[Surprised] ","listText":"Wow…[Surprised] ","text":"Wow…[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693174521","repostId":"1117827522","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117827522","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639992697,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117827522?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Verso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading<blockquote>Verso股价在盘前交易中上涨30.67%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117827522","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Verso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading.Verso inks merger agreement under which BillerudKors","content":"<p>Verso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f894b0ff58e5cdc819358dec775a50\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Verso inks merger agreement under which BillerudKorsnäs AB will acquire all of the outstanding shares of Verso for $27 per share in cash, or ~$825M.</p><p><blockquote>Verso股价在盘前交易中上涨30.67%。Verso签署合并协议，根据该协议，BillerudKorsnäs AB将以每股27美元现金（约合8.25亿美元）收购Verso的所有已发行股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Verso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading<blockquote>Verso股价在盘前交易中上涨30.67%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVerso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading<blockquote>Verso股价在盘前交易中上涨30.67%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-20 17:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Verso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77f894b0ff58e5cdc819358dec775a50\" tg-width=\"714\" tg-height=\"600\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Verso inks merger agreement under which BillerudKorsnäs AB will acquire all of the outstanding shares of Verso for $27 per share in cash, or ~$825M.</p><p><blockquote>Verso股价在盘前交易中上涨30.67%。Verso签署合并协议，根据该协议，BillerudKorsnäs AB将以每股27美元现金（约合8.25亿美元）收购Verso的所有已发行股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"VRS":"Verso Paper Corp"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117827522","content_text":"Verso shares jumped 30.67% in premarket trading.Verso inks merger agreement under which BillerudKorsnäs AB will acquire all of the outstanding shares of Verso for $27 per share in cash, or ~$825M.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VRS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693176556,"gmtCreate":1639993065033,"gmtModify":1639993137744,"author":{"id":"4095985983723070","authorId":"4095985983723070","name":"CTSM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095985983723070","idStr":"4095985983723070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the heads up! 🙏🏻","listText":"Thanks for the heads up! 🙏🏻","text":"Thanks for the heads up! 🙏🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693176556","repostId":"1152008216","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152008216","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639991203,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152008216?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 17:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%.<blockquote>电动汽车股在盘前交易中下跌，特斯拉跌超2%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152008216","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%.\nLucid, Nio, Li Auto and XPeng ","content":"<p>EV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在盘前交易中下跌，特斯拉跌超2%。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid, Nio, Li Auto and XPeng slid between 3% and 6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3570f7360ccafe4ece6a06cb3611efdf\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>Lucid、蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏汽车股价下跌3%至6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%.<blockquote>电动汽车股在盘前交易中下跌，特斯拉跌超2%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%.<blockquote>电动汽车股在盘前交易中下跌，特斯拉跌超2%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-20 17:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在盘前交易中下跌，特斯拉跌超2%。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid, Nio, Li Auto and XPeng slid between 3% and 6%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3570f7360ccafe4ece6a06cb3611efdf\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"587\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>Lucid、蔚来、理想汽车和小鹏汽车股价下跌3%至6%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152008216","content_text":"EV stocks fell in premarket trading, with Tesla falling more than 2%.\nLucid, Nio, Li Auto and XPeng slid between 3% and 6%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693120196,"gmtCreate":1639988460176,"gmtModify":1639988460322,"author":{"id":"4095985983723070","authorId":"4095985983723070","name":"CTSM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095985983723070","idStr":"4095985983723070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gravity defying fruit! Go Apple go!","listText":"Gravity defying fruit! Go Apple go!","text":"Gravity defying fruit! Go Apple go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693120196","repostId":"1183475424","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1183475424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639967829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183475424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183475424","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to a","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li> <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li> <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li> <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li> <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并为最早在3月份加息做准备。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景受到侵蚀，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍保持弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及AR/VR和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现更多增长。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但随着苹果估值接近3万亿美元，其看涨论点仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）今年以来涨幅接近40%。该股不久前曾达到182.13美元的峰值，目前距离成为第一家市值达到3万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到7%，仅占以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数的15%左右。自20世纪90年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了220倍以上，这得益于该公司不断抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面预计将帮助该股抵御明年即将加息的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来最热的水平，美联储周三决定将加快缩减每月1200亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从11月开始的每月150亿美元减少到每月300亿美元。这将有效地结束刺激计划，该计划是在3月份大流行开始时实施的，而不是最初计划的7月份。预计加息将很快开始，以应对不断上涨的物价压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减结束后才会以渐进的速度开始。最新的点阵图显示，从2022年初开始，联邦基金利率有可能从接近零的水平上升三个25个百分点，2023年再上升三个百分点，2024年再上升两个百分点。如果实现，这一过程将在2024年将基金利率提高至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者转向规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会加速侵蚀，以及资本成本上升导致业务增长停滞，尤其是高增长股票，但苹果在美联储发布后上涨了近3%关于政策收紧的最新消息。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。美联储更新后，苹果的上涨以及其他大型科技股的类似上涨趋势推动纳斯达克100指数盘中上涨2.4%，这表明投资者更愿意将资金投资于增长前景强劲的公司以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假期对苹果12月季度销售有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入3万亿美元区间。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购以及新的尖端产品预计在可预见的未来带来的额外收入贡献也将成为支持公司持续强劲的基本面并保持该股的关键催化剂尽管即将加息，但估值仍高于3万亿美元。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股12个月目标价上调至209.43美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年基本面前景概述和回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致商店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过90亿美元，但该公司今年的收入较2020财年增长了33%，达到3660亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年增长了20%以上。本年度的成功主要归功于一系列新产品的推出和功能升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone销量今年增长了39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，占苹果2021财年收入的一半以上。这一结果与去年移动设备需求下滑形成鲜明对比，当时消费者准备应对大流行带来的经济不确定性。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，预计未来几年iPhone销量将保持强劲。2022年可能推出的更实惠的支持5G的iPhone SE预计也将通过吸引“超过10亿非高端Android用户”的切换者来进一步提高苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向另一个历史新高。在推出支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s后，最近几个季度观察到的iPhone销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级者和转换者的数量以两位数强劲增长。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动iPhone的销售贡献。Verizon和AT&T等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励迁移到他们在全国范围内花费数十亿美元建设的5G网络。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内斥资超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这突显出随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回成本，iPhone市场未来将面临巨大的额外增长机会。他们的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac和iPad的销售额在2021财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的352亿美元和319亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新的M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的M1处理器使最新的MacBook“在游戏之外的几乎所有生产力用例上都比任何基于英特尔的设备都好”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的难以置信的需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在9月份季度的Mac产品出货量超过320万台，这推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球PC销量中的排名提升至其他供应商中的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入M1处理器也增强了其在利用全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑需求激增方面的地位，使该公司能够构建具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以无缝集成到其周边配件和服务生态系统中，以吸引邻近收入。随着后大流行时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求预计将在未来几年保持高位——预计到2025年，这些行业的市场规模将分别增长到2243亿美元和6000亿美元，这为苹果的Mac和iPad市场带来了有利的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近关于苹果打算加强其内部芯片开发能力的猜测可能会在未来几年进一步推进其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的额外需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师来增强其在“无线电、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及“用于连接蓝牙和Wi-Fi的半导体”的开发能力。这些发展预计将进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为该公司“最宝贵的资产”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务业的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户基础使该部门在2021财年的收入达到创纪录的超过684亿美元，比上一年增长27%。迄今为止，苹果的高利润服务已吸引了超过7.45亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其各种服务平台（从苹果音乐到iCloud存储解决方案）中不断推动基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对关键消费者趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司快速增长的关键驱动力。-扩大利润。为现有服务平台推出的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品预计将进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品在全球使用不断增加所带来的邻近机会的覆盖范围，例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将以16%的复合年增长率扩张，预计未来五年价值将达到610亿美元，凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果One捆绑包预计将成为未来几年促进服务部门销售的关键贡献者，吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，如果没有捆绑折扣，他们就不会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将利好苹果快速增长的服务板块。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于AAPL拥有世界上最大和使用最多的应用商店之一，有理由假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果App Store涉嫌违反反垄断的审查越来越多——其中最引人注目的是与Epic Games正在进行的法律斗争——但该公司对确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性的持续关注可能会挽救局面。根据Morgan Stanley对美国和中国4000名苹果产品用户进行的一项调查，尽管开发者正在争取在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，但大多数用户都表示对苹果应用商店的忠诚度，因为它提供了“安全、隐私和交易便利性的价值”。作为Epic Games提起的长达一年的诉讼的一部分，苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers在9月份下令的App Store变更，这是App Store持续强劲的另一个迹象。该公司辩称，法院授权的允许App Store用户“直接从网络上的开发者那里购买”的命令将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达所有购买30%的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施App Store变更的最终决定可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，即苹果必须允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到App Store用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际的量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基础和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子和设备的先驱预计将在2023年初推出VR耳机和AR眼镜，这是一项新兴技术，近几个月来，随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，这项技术的发展势头越来越大。与市场上已有的大多数VR头显类似，苹果的将配备3D显示屏，为从游戏到交流的各种活动提供身临其境的环境。差异化因素将是该公司计划在设备中实现一流的图形芯片，以促进超高分辨率显示。即将推出的VR头显最终将为其AR眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是“更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为8000亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的70%以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的AR/VR耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与相关应用程序、软件和服务平台使用相关的邻近收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>对苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测预计也将在可预见的未来为该股带来有意义的上涨。该公司现在计划到2025年推出新的产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场的价值预计将达到2000亿美元以上。最终的汽车可能会向其现有产品组合致敬，例如“类似iPad的触摸屏”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了定制芯片的开发，用于为车辆的自动驾驶功能提供动力。据该州DMV称，最新的芯片将很快应用到其现有的改装SUV车队中，以便在加利福尼亚州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将推出。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了“随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对材料收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别发布的额外上行空间仍然缺失。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期AR/VR设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高1500亿美元。随着时间的推移，当元宇宙趋势继续获得主流关注时，苹果预计将从AR/VR领域获得超过2000亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值前景和即将加息的潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果2021财年年终业绩和12月季度指引的最新预测，我们的基本情况预测预计到2022财年末总净销售额为4393亿美元，到2026财年将进一步增长至6685亿美元。我们预测中应用于各部门收入的增长假设与我们对该股的最新分析基本保持不变，并额外考虑了管理层对供应限制影响和即将加息的近期前景。具体来说，2021财年下半年由于全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延迟造成的90亿美元收入损失（即6月季度约30亿美元，9月季度约60亿美元）预计将恶化2022财年上半年。尽管供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将导致未来几个季度销量损失更大。尽管如此，苹果仍为未来强劲的基本面做好了准备，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（苹果_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关所应用的材料增长假设的更多详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们将苹果股票的12个月目标价修正为209.43美元。基于12月17日171.14美元的最后交易价格，这意味着超过22%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期内的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析得出的，并结合前几节中分析的针对苹果近期发展更新的财务预测。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了8%的WACC来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司当前的资本结构和强劲的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务的很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在加息之前部署以实现额外增长，而不必产生增量资本成本。预计这将进一步巩固投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升带来的更广泛市场压力的情况下继续“转向优质股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为19.8倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品领域即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将加息的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述分析，预计未来两年在当前接近零的联邦基金利率基础上增加175至200个基点，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步增强该公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步增强其抵御更广泛的宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能会推动苹果的估值增长势头。考虑到这些因素，苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，尽管加息即将到来，但其近期仍强劲上涨至3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li> <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li> <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li> <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li> <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并为最早在3月份加息做准备。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景受到侵蚀，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍保持弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及AR/VR和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现更多增长。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但随着苹果估值接近3万亿美元，其看涨论点仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）今年以来涨幅接近40%。该股不久前曾达到182.13美元的峰值，目前距离成为第一家市值达到3万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到7%，仅占以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数的15%左右。自20世纪90年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了220倍以上，这得益于该公司不断抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面预计将帮助该股抵御明年即将加息的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来最热的水平，美联储周三决定将加快缩减每月1200亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从11月开始的每月150亿美元减少到每月300亿美元。这将有效地结束刺激计划，该计划是在3月份大流行开始时实施的，而不是最初计划的7月份。预计加息将很快开始，以应对不断上涨的物价压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减结束后才会以渐进的速度开始。最新的点阵图显示，从2022年初开始，联邦基金利率有可能从接近零的水平上升三个25个百分点，2023年再上升三个百分点，2024年再上升两个百分点。如果实现，这一过程将在2024年将基金利率提高至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者转向规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会加速侵蚀，以及资本成本上升导致业务增长停滞，尤其是高增长股票，但苹果在美联储发布后上涨了近3%关于政策收紧的最新消息。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。美联储更新后，苹果的上涨以及其他大型科技股的类似上涨趋势推动纳斯达克100指数盘中上涨2.4%，这表明投资者更愿意将资金投资于增长前景强劲的公司以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假期对苹果12月季度销售有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入3万亿美元区间。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购以及新的尖端产品预计在可预见的未来带来的额外收入贡献也将成为支持公司持续强劲的基本面并保持该股的关键催化剂尽管即将加息，但估值仍高于3万亿美元。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股12个月目标价上调至209.43美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年基本面前景概述和回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致商店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过90亿美元，但该公司今年的收入较2020财年增长了33%，达到3660亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年增长了20%以上。本年度的成功主要归功于一系列新产品的推出和功能升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone销量今年增长了39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，占苹果2021财年收入的一半以上。这一结果与去年移动设备需求下滑形成鲜明对比，当时消费者准备应对大流行带来的经济不确定性。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，预计未来几年iPhone销量将保持强劲。2022年可能推出的更实惠的支持5G的iPhone SE预计也将通过吸引“超过10亿非高端Android用户”的切换者来进一步提高苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向另一个历史新高。在推出支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s后，最近几个季度观察到的iPhone销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级者和转换者的数量以两位数强劲增长。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动iPhone的销售贡献。Verizon和AT&T等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励迁移到他们在全国范围内花费数十亿美元建设的5G网络。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内斥资超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这突显出随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回成本，iPhone市场未来将面临巨大的额外增长机会。他们的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac和iPad的销售额在2021财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的352亿美元和319亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新的M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的M1处理器使最新的MacBook“在游戏之外的几乎所有生产力用例上都比任何基于英特尔的设备都好”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的难以置信的需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在9月份季度的Mac产品出货量超过320万台，这推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球PC销量中的排名提升至其他供应商中的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入M1处理器也增强了其在利用全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑需求激增方面的地位，使该公司能够构建具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以无缝集成到其周边配件和服务生态系统中，以吸引邻近收入。随着后大流行时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求预计将在未来几年保持高位——预计到2025年，这些行业的市场规模将分别增长到2243亿美元和6000亿美元，这为苹果的Mac和iPad市场带来了有利的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近关于苹果打算加强其内部芯片开发能力的猜测可能会在未来几年进一步推进其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的额外需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师来增强其在“无线电、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及“用于连接蓝牙和Wi-Fi的半导体”的开发能力。这些发展预计将进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为该公司“最宝贵的资产”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务业的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户基础使该部门在2021财年的收入达到创纪录的超过684亿美元，比上一年增长27%。迄今为止，苹果的高利润服务已吸引了超过7.45亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其各种服务平台（从苹果音乐到iCloud存储解决方案）中不断推动基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对关键消费者趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司快速增长的关键驱动力。-扩大利润。为现有服务平台推出的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品预计将进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品在全球使用不断增加所带来的邻近机会的覆盖范围，例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将以16%的复合年增长率扩张，预计未来五年价值将达到610亿美元，凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果One捆绑包预计将成为未来几年促进服务部门销售的关键贡献者，吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，如果没有捆绑折扣，他们就不会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将利好苹果快速增长的服务板块。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于AAPL拥有世界上最大和使用最多的应用商店之一，有理由假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果App Store涉嫌违反反垄断的审查越来越多——其中最引人注目的是与Epic Games正在进行的法律斗争——但该公司对确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性的持续关注可能会挽救局面。根据Morgan Stanley对美国和中国4000名苹果产品用户进行的一项调查，尽管开发者正在争取在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，但大多数用户都表示对苹果应用商店的忠诚度，因为它提供了“安全、隐私和交易便利性的价值”。作为Epic Games提起的长达一年的诉讼的一部分，苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers在9月份下令的App Store变更，这是App Store持续强劲的另一个迹象。该公司辩称，法院授权的允许App Store用户“直接从网络上的开发者那里购买”的命令将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达所有购买30%的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施App Store变更的最终决定可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，即苹果必须允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到App Store用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际的量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基础和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子和设备的先驱预计将在2023年初推出VR耳机和AR眼镜，这是一项新兴技术，近几个月来，随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，这项技术的发展势头越来越大。与市场上已有的大多数VR头显类似，苹果的将配备3D显示屏，为从游戏到交流的各种活动提供身临其境的环境。差异化因素将是该公司计划在设备中实现一流的图形芯片，以促进超高分辨率显示。即将推出的VR头显最终将为其AR眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是“更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为8000亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的70%以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的AR/VR耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与相关应用程序、软件和服务平台使用相关的邻近收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>对苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测预计也将在可预见的未来为该股带来有意义的上涨。该公司现在计划到2025年推出新的产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场的价值预计将达到2000亿美元以上。最终的汽车可能会向其现有产品组合致敬，例如“类似iPad的触摸屏”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了定制芯片的开发，用于为车辆的自动驾驶功能提供动力。据该州DMV称，最新的芯片将很快应用到其现有的改装SUV车队中，以便在加利福尼亚州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将推出。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了“随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对材料收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别发布的额外上行空间仍然缺失。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期AR/VR设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高1500亿美元。随着时间的推移，当元宇宙趋势继续获得主流关注时，苹果预计将从AR/VR领域获得超过2000亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值前景和即将加息的潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果2021财年年终业绩和12月季度指引的最新预测，我们的基本情况预测预计到2022财年末总净销售额为4393亿美元，到2026财年将进一步增长至6685亿美元。我们预测中应用于各部门收入的增长假设与我们对该股的最新分析基本保持不变，并额外考虑了管理层对供应限制影响和即将加息的近期前景。具体来说，2021财年下半年由于全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延迟造成的90亿美元收入损失（即6月季度约30亿美元，9月季度约60亿美元）预计将恶化2022财年上半年。尽管供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将导致未来几个季度销量损失更大。尽管如此，苹果仍为未来强劲的基本面做好了准备，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（苹果_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关所应用的材料增长假设的更多详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们将苹果股票的12个月目标价修正为209.43美元。基于12月17日171.14美元的最后交易价格，这意味着超过22%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期内的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析得出的，并结合前几节中分析的针对苹果近期发展更新的财务预测。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了8%的WACC来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司当前的资本结构和强劲的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务的很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在加息之前部署以实现额外增长，而不必产生增量资本成本。预计这将进一步巩固投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升带来的更广泛市场压力的情况下继续“转向优质股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为19.8倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品领域即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将加息的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述分析，预计未来两年在当前接近零的联邦基金利率基础上增加175至200个基点，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步增强该公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步增强其抵御更广泛的宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能会推动苹果的估值增长势头。考虑到这些因素，苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，尽管加息即将到来，但其近期仍强劲上涨至3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183475424","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.\nWhile rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.\nApple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.\nIts strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.\nAs such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.\n\nguvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAs one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.\nAnd Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.\nSource: Bloomberg\nWhile rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.\nWith the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.\nFY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects\nFiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.\nKey Developments in Products\niPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.\nMac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.\nRecent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.\nKey Developments in Services\nOn the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.\nContinued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.\nCurrently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.\nKey Catalysts Ahead\nApple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.\nOver the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.\nSpeculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.\nWhile Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.\nValuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases\nAdjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.\n\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.\nDrawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nThe revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.\nThe valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nBased on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693162435,"gmtCreate":1639987957644,"gmtModify":1639987957781,"author":{"id":"4095985983723070","authorId":"4095985983723070","name":"CTSM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095985983723070","idStr":"4095985983723070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[OMG] ","listText":"[OMG] ","text":"[OMG]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693162435","repostId":"2192900888","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693168731,"gmtCreate":1639987595873,"gmtModify":1639987595976,"author":{"id":"4095985983723070","authorId":"4095985983723070","name":"CTSM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095985983723070","idStr":"4095985983723070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow… almost like a TV drama… Thanks forthe report.","listText":"Wow… almost like a TV drama… Thanks forthe report.","text":"Wow… almost like a TV drama… Thanks forthe report.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693168731","repostId":"2192901891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693160480,"gmtCreate":1639986823532,"gmtModify":1639986823671,"author":{"id":"4095985983723070","authorId":"4095985983723070","name":"CTSM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095985983723070","idStr":"4095985983723070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted.","listText":"Noted.","text":"Noted.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693160480","repostId":"2192887631","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693111935,"gmtCreate":1639984247649,"gmtModify":1639984248513,"author":{"id":"4095985983723070","authorId":"4095985983723070","name":"CTSM","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095985983723070","idStr":"4095985983723070"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome report! Thanks","listText":"Awesome report! Thanks","text":"Awesome report! Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693111935","repostId":"1109541249","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1109541249","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639972523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1109541249?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票：较高点下跌43%，现在值得买入吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109541249","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the mar","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the market.</li> <li>However, we believe that the fundamental thesis on its rapid growth remains robust.</li> <li>We discuss why investors should capitalize on its recent significant correction to add exposure.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于成长型股票在市场上大量抛售，Sea Limited的股票最近遭受重创。</li><li>然而，我们认为其快速增长的基本论点仍然强劲。</li><li>我们讨论了为什么投资者应该利用其最近的重大调整来增加风险敞口。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited(NYSE:SE) stock is one of our highest conviction growth stocks that has been severely battered over the last month. Since its recent all-time high (ATH) in October, its price has dropped by a dramatic 43%. Many reasons have been presented on why the stock has fallen. We exhort investors not to read too much into them. We believe nothing material has changed from its fundamental thesis. The stock has had a remarkable run in 2021 relative to its gaming peers or e-tailer peers. Therefore, profit-taking of this extent should not be surprising as fear struck growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）股票是我们最有信心的成长型股票之一，但在上个月遭受了严重打击。自10月份创下历史新高(ATH)以来，其价格已大幅下跌43%。关于该股下跌的原因有很多。我们敦促投资者不要对他们解读太多。我们认为它的基本论点没有任何实质性的改变。相对于游戏同行或电子零售商同行，该股在2021年表现出色。因此，随着恐惧袭击成长型股票，这种程度的获利了结并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the recent significant correction in growth stocks across the market has also hit SE stock hard. But, we are not concerned. Significant volatility will always be a factor influencing the performance of growth stocks like SE in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，近期全市场成长股的大幅回调也重创了SE股。但是，我们并不担心。短期内，大幅波动始终是影响SE等成长型股票表现的一个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, we observed that the consensus target price on SE stock had been revised upwards since its FQ3 report card. Moreover, the gap between its price target and its current stock price has been greater than its last significant correction in April/May.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我们观察到，自第三季度成绩单以来，SE股票的共识目标价已向上修正。此外，其目标价与当前股价之间的差距已大于4月/5月上次大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> Our internal DCF valuation model also points to a stock that is now significantly undervalued. Thanks to the market's myopia, we have been presented with another fantastic opportunity since April/May to add SE stock with great fervor again.</p><p><blockquote>我们的内部DCF估值模型也指向一只目前被严重低估的股票。由于市场的短视，自4月/5月以来，我们又迎来了一个绝佳的机会，再次以极大的热情增持SE股票。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss why we think investors should not miss this incredible opportunity to add exposure to an outstanding growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论了为什么我们认为投资者不应该错过这个增加对优秀成长型股票投资的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SE Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SE股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c191d1f0f6a10e392845cdbda1264aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock YTD performance (as of 17 December'21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票年初至今表现（截至21年12月17日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result of the significant correction recently, SE stock's YTD return has dropped to 6.9%, thus underperforming the market. Notably, its YTD gain was as high as 80% in October/early November. Despite that, the stock is still outperforming its e-tailer and gaming peers, as shown above.</p><p><blockquote>由于近期大幅调整，SE股票年初至今的回报率已降至6.9%，表现逊于大盘。值得注意的是，10月/11月初，其年初至今涨幅高达80%。尽管如此，该股的表现仍然优于电子零售商和游戏同行，如上所示。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sea Stock Estimates Have Consistently Been Revised Upwards</b></p><p><blockquote><b>海洋库存估计不断上调</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8555128e2a30e924dd6c2dd162a27eea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited修正后的收入平均共识估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly observe that the company's revenue consensus estimates for FY21-23 have consistently been revised upwards over the last five months. These revisions lend credence to the robust growth prospects of the company over the next two years. Notably, Sea Limited's revenue is estimated to increase at a phenomenal CAGR of 42.8% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以很快观察到，该公司对2021-23财年的收入共识预期在过去五个月中一直在上调。这些修正为公司未来两年的强劲增长前景增添了信心。值得注意的是，Sea Limited的收入预计将通过2023财年以42.8%的惊人复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> There were concerns over the growth rates of its Garena gaming arm in its FQ3 report card.We also explained in our previous article that Sea Limited has clearly explained that investors should expect normalization in Garena's growth after two spectacular years. However, its monetization capability continues to dazzle. Therefore, we are confident that Garena can continue its robust monetization strategies moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>人们对其第三季度成绩单中Garena游戏部门的增长率感到担忧。我们在上一篇文章中还解释说，Sea Limited已经明确解释说，投资者应该预计Garena的增长在经历了两年的辉煌之后将正常化。然而，其变现能力继续令人眼花缭乱。因此，我们相信Garena能够继续其稳健的货币化战略。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, data from Sensor Tower's recent gaming statistics continue to point to sturdy performance from its Free Fire game. It continues to be ranked among the top ten mobile games in terms of overall gaming revenue in November. Moreover, it's also ranked#2 in overall downloadsacross both the App Store and Google Play. Notably, it's also among eight games globally whose annual revenue crossed $1B as of 14 December. Therefore, we think the sentiments and chatter about Free Fire's \"one-shot wonder\" have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Sensor Tower最近的游戏统计数据继续表明其Free Fire游戏的强劲性能。继续位列11月整体游戏收入排名前十的手游。此外，它在App Store和Google Play的总下载量中也排名第二。值得注意的是，截至12月14日，它也是全球年收入超过10亿美元的八款游戏之一。因此，我们认为关于Free Fire的“一次性奇迹”的情绪和喋喋不休被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51247ba1efd7fa6d333b482446e94c9a\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Global games market forecast. Source: Google, Newzoo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球游戏市场预测。资料来源：谷歌、Newzoo</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the global gaming market is estimated to experience a slight decline to $175.8B after last year's massive 23% growth to $177.8B. However, given Garena's impressive growth in FY21 despite the decline in the global market, we believe it validates its business model and prospects. Notably, the gaming market is expected to reverse its decline moving forward. Therefore, Garena's leadership in mobile gaming could continue to propel its growth underpinned by the recovery in the global gaming market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，全球游戏市场在去年大幅增长23%至$177.8 B后，预计将小幅下降至$175.8 B。然而，尽管全球市场下滑，但鉴于Garena在21财年仍取得了令人印象深刻的增长，我们相信它验证了其商业模式和前景。值得注意的是，游戏市场预计将扭转未来的颓势。因此，在全球游戏市场复苏的支持下，Garena在移动游戏领域的领导地位可能会继续推动其增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0612da9a19f7b7198d43213b4f4470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Shopee adjusted EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopee调整了每个订单的EBITDA。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, some investors may have been spooked by Shopee's (Sea Limited's e-commerce arm) continued expansion into new geographical markets. Notably, Shopee continues to report adjusted EBITDA loss per order, as shown above. Therefore, some investors might have been concerned about whether the company's plate is getting too much to handle. Over the last three months, the company has entered into new markets such as India, France, Spain, and Poland. They are in addition to its battle with MercadoLibre (MELI) in Latin America, particularly Brazil. As a result, there are concerns on whether Sea Limited could continue its adroit execution in these markets while still making losses. We believe such concerns are valid. However, Sea Limited has shown its tremendous capability in penetrating the most important markets where the incumbents have strong leadership. It includes Lazada (BABA) in Southeast Asia, MercadoLibre in Brazil, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. Shopee was never the first-mover. But, it took advantage as the \"late-comer\" as it sought to compete with the incumbents. It's important to note that Sea Limited is not averse to competition. It has thrived against the incumbents and has made the e-commerce space in these geographical regions much more competitive.</p><p><blockquote>但是，一些投资者可能被Shopee（Sea Limited的电子商务部门）向新地理市场的持续扩张吓坏了。值得注意的是，Shopee继续报告每个订单调整后的EBITDA损失，如上所示。因此，一些投资者可能会担心该公司的盘子是否太大而无法处理。在过去的三个月里，该公司进入了印度、法国、西班牙和波兰等新市场。除此之外，它还在拉丁美洲，尤其是巴西与MercadoLibre(MELI)展开了战斗。因此，人们担心Sea Limited能否在亏损的同时继续在这些市场娴熟地执行任务。我们认为这种担忧是有道理的。然而，Sea Limited在渗透现有企业拥有强大领导力的最重要市场方面表现出了巨大的能力。其中包括东南亚的Lazada（BABA）、巴西的MercadoLibre和印度尼西亚的Tokopedia。Shopee从来都不是先行者。但是，它利用了“后来者”的优势，试图与现有企业竞争。值得注意的是，Sea Limited并不反对竞争。它在与现有企业的竞争中蓬勃发展，并使这些地理区域的电子商务空间更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80938433e2d55307ca40000eeea2a26f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised adjusted EPS mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited修订后的调整后每股收益均值共识估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the road towards profitability might be stretched further due to its e-commerce expansion. Readers can quickly glance over the chart above, where its adjusted EPS estimates have been revised downwards through FY23 over the last five months. However, we believe that if you are a long-term investor with a five-year horizon at least, it's not a cause for concern. Earlier investors in Sea Limited can keenly recall the company's massive adjusted EBITDA per order losses, as seen in the previous chart. Shopee has scaled tremendously over the last five years and has improved its operating leverage further. But, it's important to note that it takes time to scale up. Therefore, earlier losses in new geographical markets are expected. But, management has demonstrated its execution capability over the last three years. Considering its much reduced adjusted EBITDA losses over the previous few years, we believe that Shopee is even better positioned than before to navigate its expansion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于其电子商务的扩张，盈利之路可能会进一步延伸。读者可以快速浏览上图，其中2023财年在过去五个月中下调了调整后的每股收益预期。然而，我们认为，如果您是至少有五年投资期限的长期投资者，则无需担心。Sea Limited的早期投资者可以敏锐地回忆起该公司每订单调整后EBITDA的巨大损失，如上图所示。Shopee在过去五年中规模巨大，并进一步提高了其运营杠杆。但是，值得注意的是，扩大规模需要时间。因此，预计新地理市场将出现较早亏损。但是，管理层在过去三年中展示了其执行能力。考虑到过去几年调整后EBITDA亏损大幅减少，我们认为Shopee比以前更有能力应对扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is SE Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，SE股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbc835e49ded8a7a0e5f4fcc9e10649\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock EV/NTM Revenue 4Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票EV/NTM收入4年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SE stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 8.3x. Therefore, it has brought it back to its 4Y NTM revenue multiple mean of 8.6x. We believe there's a fantastic opportunity right now as the market has undoubtedly overreacted. As demonstrated clearly, SE is still expected to generate massive revenue growth moving ahead, even though it means the road to profitability gets further extended.</p><p><blockquote>SE股票的EV/NTM收入为8.3倍。因此，它已将其恢复到4年NTM收入倍数平均值8.6倍。我们相信现在有一个绝佳的机会，因为市场无疑反应过度了。正如清楚表明的那样，SE仍有望在未来产生巨大的收入增长，尽管这意味着盈利之路将进一步延长。</blockquote></p><p> Considering its FY23 revenue estimate, SE stock is trading at just 5.8x FY23 revenue. No one can accurately predict where the stock will be headed over the next few months. But, we think it represents a tremendous opportunity right now.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到2023财年的收入预期，SE股票的交易价格仅为2023财年收入的5.8倍。没有人能够准确预测该股未来几个月的走势。但是，我们认为这现在代表着一个巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bea18a0bdfd970ea640308dc35e099c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock price target Vs. actual price trend. Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股价目标与实际价格趋势。资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, readers can observe that the valuation gap between SE stock's consensus price target (PT) of $405.87 and its current price has never been more significant in a while. It's even more pronounced than its last significant correction in April/May. Notably, the consensus price target has been revised upwards despite the so-called \"gaming headwinds.\" And, if you look at the price chart, SE stock price has followed the revised PT trend very consistently over time. Therefore, the current price could be one of the most significant discounts you could observe in a long time.</p><p><blockquote>此外，读者可以观察到，SE股票405.87美元的共识目标价(PT)与其当前价格之间的估值差距从未如此显着。这甚至比4月/5月的上一次大幅调整更加明显。值得注意的是，尽管存在所谓的“博弈阻力”，但共识价格目标仍被上调。而且，如果您查看价格图表，您会发现SE股价随着时间的推移非常一致地遵循修订后的PT趋势。因此，当前价格可能是您在很长一段时间内观察到的最显着的折扣之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939a544ab94c9e2a2b8a6db943703b39\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票DCF估值模型。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ，公司文件，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our DCF model also shows that SE stock is now significantly undervalued with an implied fair value of $371.46. We have also used reasonable estimates in our model. Moreover, we believe that SE will continue to gain significant operating leverage as it scales in the new markets. We estimate that its adjusted EBITDA margins could reach 15% by FY25.</p><p><blockquote>我们的DCF模型还显示，SE股票目前被严重低估，隐含公允价值为371.46美元。我们在模型中也使用了合理的估计。此外，我们相信，随着SE在新市场的扩大规模，它将继续获得巨大的运营杠杆。我们估计，到2025财年，其调整后EBITDA利润率可能达到15%。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, the stock is also testing a critical support level that has strongly underpinned the stock's advance since early 2021. Therefore, there are sufficient reasons to believe that the current entry point to add exposure to SE stock seems very attractive now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该股还在测试关键支撑位，该支撑位自2021年初以来有力支撑了该股的上涨。因此，有足够的理由相信，目前增加SE股票敞口的切入点现在看来非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently,<i>we revise our rating on SE stock to Strong Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，<i>我们将SE股票评级修改为强力买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票：较高点下跌43%，现在值得买入吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Stock: Down 43% From Its High, is a Buy Now?<blockquote>Sea股票：较高点下跌43%，现在值得买入吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Sea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the market.</li> <li>However, we believe that the fundamental thesis on its rapid growth remains robust.</li> <li>We discuss why investors should capitalize on its recent significant correction to add exposure.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于成长型股票在市场上大量抛售，Sea Limited的股票最近遭受重创。</li><li>然而，我们认为其快速增长的基本论点仍然强劲。</li><li>我们讨论了为什么投资者应该利用其最近的重大调整来增加风险敞口。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Sea Limited(NYSE:SE) stock is one of our highest conviction growth stocks that has been severely battered over the last month. Since its recent all-time high (ATH) in October, its price has dropped by a dramatic 43%. Many reasons have been presented on why the stock has fallen. We exhort investors not to read too much into them. We believe nothing material has changed from its fundamental thesis. The stock has had a remarkable run in 2021 relative to its gaming peers or e-tailer peers. Therefore, profit-taking of this extent should not be surprising as fear struck growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）股票是我们最有信心的成长型股票之一，但在上个月遭受了严重打击。自10月份创下历史新高(ATH)以来，其价格已大幅下跌43%。关于该股下跌的原因有很多。我们敦促投资者不要对他们解读太多。我们认为它的基本论点没有任何实质性的改变。相对于游戏同行或电子零售商同行，该股在2021年表现出色。因此，随着恐惧袭击成长型股票，这种程度的获利了结并不令人意外。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, the recent significant correction in growth stocks across the market has also hit SE stock hard. But, we are not concerned. Significant volatility will always be a factor influencing the performance of growth stocks like SE in the short term.</p><p><blockquote>此外，近期全市场成长股的大幅回调也重创了SE股。但是，我们并不担心。短期内，大幅波动始终是影响SE等成长型股票表现的一个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, we observed that the consensus target price on SE stock had been revised upwards since its FQ3 report card. Moreover, the gap between its price target and its current stock price has been greater than its last significant correction in April/May.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我们观察到，自第三季度成绩单以来，SE股票的共识目标价已向上修正。此外，其目标价与当前股价之间的差距已大于4月/5月上次大幅调整。</blockquote></p><p> Our internal DCF valuation model also points to a stock that is now significantly undervalued. Thanks to the market's myopia, we have been presented with another fantastic opportunity since April/May to add SE stock with great fervor again.</p><p><blockquote>我们的内部DCF估值模型也指向一只目前被严重低估的股票。由于市场的短视，自4月/5月以来，我们又迎来了一个绝佳的机会，再次以极大的热情增持SE股票。</blockquote></p><p> We discuss why we think investors should not miss this incredible opportunity to add exposure to an outstanding growth stock.</p><p><blockquote>我们讨论了为什么我们认为投资者不应该错过这个增加对优秀成长型股票投资的绝佳机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>SE Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SE股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c191d1f0f6a10e392845cdbda1264aa\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock YTD performance (as of 17 December'21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票年初至今表现（截至21年12月17日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As a result of the significant correction recently, SE stock's YTD return has dropped to 6.9%, thus underperforming the market. Notably, its YTD gain was as high as 80% in October/early November. Despite that, the stock is still outperforming its e-tailer and gaming peers, as shown above.</p><p><blockquote>由于近期大幅调整，SE股票年初至今的回报率已降至6.9%，表现逊于大盘。值得注意的是，10月/11月初，其年初至今涨幅高达80%。尽管如此，该股的表现仍然优于电子零售商和游戏同行，如上所示。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Sea Stock Estimates Have Consistently Been Revised Upwards</b></p><p><blockquote><b>海洋库存估计不断上调</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8555128e2a30e924dd6c2dd162a27eea\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited修正后的收入平均共识估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly observe that the company's revenue consensus estimates for FY21-23 have consistently been revised upwards over the last five months. These revisions lend credence to the robust growth prospects of the company over the next two years. Notably, Sea Limited's revenue is estimated to increase at a phenomenal CAGR of 42.8% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以很快观察到，该公司对2021-23财年的收入共识预期在过去五个月中一直在上调。这些修正为公司未来两年的强劲增长前景增添了信心。值得注意的是，Sea Limited的收入预计将通过2023财年以42.8%的惊人复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> There were concerns over the growth rates of its Garena gaming arm in its FQ3 report card.We also explained in our previous article that Sea Limited has clearly explained that investors should expect normalization in Garena's growth after two spectacular years. However, its monetization capability continues to dazzle. Therefore, we are confident that Garena can continue its robust monetization strategies moving forward.</p><p><blockquote>人们对其第三季度成绩单中Garena游戏部门的增长率感到担忧。我们在上一篇文章中还解释说，Sea Limited已经明确解释说，投资者应该预计Garena的增长在经历了两年的辉煌之后将正常化。然而，其变现能力继续令人眼花缭乱。因此，我们相信Garena能够继续其稳健的货币化战略。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, data from Sensor Tower's recent gaming statistics continue to point to sturdy performance from its Free Fire game. It continues to be ranked among the top ten mobile games in terms of overall gaming revenue in November. Moreover, it's also ranked#2 in overall downloadsacross both the App Store and Google Play. Notably, it's also among eight games globally whose annual revenue crossed $1B as of 14 December. Therefore, we think the sentiments and chatter about Free Fire's \"one-shot wonder\" have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Sensor Tower最近的游戏统计数据继续表明其Free Fire游戏的强劲性能。继续位列11月整体游戏收入排名前十的手游。此外，它在App Store和Google Play的总下载量中也排名第二。值得注意的是，截至12月14日，它也是全球年收入超过10亿美元的八款游戏之一。因此，我们认为关于Free Fire的“一次性奇迹”的情绪和喋喋不休被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51247ba1efd7fa6d333b482446e94c9a\" tg-width=\"515\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Global games market forecast. Source: Google, Newzoo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球游戏市场预测。资料来源：谷歌、Newzoo</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, the global gaming market is estimated to experience a slight decline to $175.8B after last year's massive 23% growth to $177.8B. However, given Garena's impressive growth in FY21 despite the decline in the global market, we believe it validates its business model and prospects. Notably, the gaming market is expected to reverse its decline moving forward. Therefore, Garena's leadership in mobile gaming could continue to propel its growth underpinned by the recovery in the global gaming market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，全球游戏市场在去年大幅增长23%至$177.8 B后，预计将小幅下降至$175.8 B。然而，尽管全球市场下滑，但鉴于Garena在21财年仍取得了令人印象深刻的增长，我们相信它验证了其商业模式和前景。值得注意的是，游戏市场预计将扭转未来的颓势。因此，在全球游戏市场复苏的支持下，Garena在移动游戏领域的领导地位可能会继续推动其增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a0612da9a19f7b7198d43213b4f4470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Shopee adjusted EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Shopee调整了每个订单的EBITDA。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But, some investors may have been spooked by Shopee's (Sea Limited's e-commerce arm) continued expansion into new geographical markets. Notably, Shopee continues to report adjusted EBITDA loss per order, as shown above. Therefore, some investors might have been concerned about whether the company's plate is getting too much to handle. Over the last three months, the company has entered into new markets such as India, France, Spain, and Poland. They are in addition to its battle with MercadoLibre (MELI) in Latin America, particularly Brazil. As a result, there are concerns on whether Sea Limited could continue its adroit execution in these markets while still making losses. We believe such concerns are valid. However, Sea Limited has shown its tremendous capability in penetrating the most important markets where the incumbents have strong leadership. It includes Lazada (BABA) in Southeast Asia, MercadoLibre in Brazil, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. Shopee was never the first-mover. But, it took advantage as the \"late-comer\" as it sought to compete with the incumbents. It's important to note that Sea Limited is not averse to competition. It has thrived against the incumbents and has made the e-commerce space in these geographical regions much more competitive.</p><p><blockquote>但是，一些投资者可能被Shopee（Sea Limited的电子商务部门）向新地理市场的持续扩张吓坏了。值得注意的是，Shopee继续报告每个订单调整后的EBITDA损失，如上所示。因此，一些投资者可能会担心该公司的盘子是否太大而无法处理。在过去的三个月里，该公司进入了印度、法国、西班牙和波兰等新市场。除此之外，它还在拉丁美洲，尤其是巴西与MercadoLibre(MELI)展开了战斗。因此，人们担心Sea Limited能否在亏损的同时继续在这些市场娴熟地执行任务。我们认为这种担忧是有道理的。然而，Sea Limited在渗透现有企业拥有强大领导力的最重要市场方面表现出了巨大的能力。其中包括东南亚的Lazada（BABA）、巴西的MercadoLibre和印度尼西亚的Tokopedia。Shopee从来都不是先行者。但是，它利用了“后来者”的优势，试图与现有企业竞争。值得注意的是，Sea Limited并不反对竞争。它在与现有企业的竞争中蓬勃发展，并使这些地理区域的电子商务空间更具竞争力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80938433e2d55307ca40000eeea2a26f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Sea Limited revised adjusted EPS mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Sea Limited修订后的调整后每股收益均值共识估计。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ、Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, the road towards profitability might be stretched further due to its e-commerce expansion. Readers can quickly glance over the chart above, where its adjusted EPS estimates have been revised downwards through FY23 over the last five months. However, we believe that if you are a long-term investor with a five-year horizon at least, it's not a cause for concern. Earlier investors in Sea Limited can keenly recall the company's massive adjusted EBITDA per order losses, as seen in the previous chart. Shopee has scaled tremendously over the last five years and has improved its operating leverage further. But, it's important to note that it takes time to scale up. Therefore, earlier losses in new geographical markets are expected. But, management has demonstrated its execution capability over the last three years. Considering its much reduced adjusted EBITDA losses over the previous few years, we believe that Shopee is even better positioned than before to navigate its expansion.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于其电子商务的扩张，盈利之路可能会进一步延伸。读者可以快速浏览上图，其中2023财年在过去五个月中下调了调整后的每股收益预期。然而，我们认为，如果您是至少有五年投资期限的长期投资者，则无需担心。Sea Limited的早期投资者可以敏锐地回忆起该公司每订单调整后EBITDA的巨大损失，如上图所示。Shopee在过去五年中规模巨大，并进一步提高了其运营杠杆。但是，值得注意的是，扩大规模需要时间。因此，预计新地理市场将出现较早亏损。但是，管理层在过去三年中展示了其执行能力。考虑到过去几年调整后EBITDA亏损大幅减少，我们认为Shopee比以前更有能力应对扩张。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is SE Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，SE股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dbc835e49ded8a7a0e5f4fcc9e10649\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock EV/NTM Revenue 4Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票EV/NTM收入4年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> SE stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 8.3x. Therefore, it has brought it back to its 4Y NTM revenue multiple mean of 8.6x. We believe there's a fantastic opportunity right now as the market has undoubtedly overreacted. As demonstrated clearly, SE is still expected to generate massive revenue growth moving ahead, even though it means the road to profitability gets further extended.</p><p><blockquote>SE股票的EV/NTM收入为8.3倍。因此，它已将其恢复到4年NTM收入倍数平均值8.6倍。我们相信现在有一个绝佳的机会，因为市场无疑反应过度了。正如清楚表明的那样，SE仍有望在未来产生巨大的收入增长，尽管这意味着盈利之路将进一步延长。</blockquote></p><p> Considering its FY23 revenue estimate, SE stock is trading at just 5.8x FY23 revenue. No one can accurately predict where the stock will be headed over the next few months. But, we think it represents a tremendous opportunity right now.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到2023财年的收入预期，SE股票的交易价格仅为2023财年收入的5.8倍。没有人能够准确预测该股未来几个月的走势。但是，我们认为这现在代表着一个巨大的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bea18a0bdfd970ea640308dc35e099c\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"362\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock price target Vs. actual price trend. Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股价目标与实际价格趋势。资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Moreover, readers can observe that the valuation gap between SE stock's consensus price target (PT) of $405.87 and its current price has never been more significant in a while. It's even more pronounced than its last significant correction in April/May. Notably, the consensus price target has been revised upwards despite the so-called \"gaming headwinds.\" And, if you look at the price chart, SE stock price has followed the revised PT trend very consistently over time. Therefore, the current price could be one of the most significant discounts you could observe in a long time.</p><p><blockquote>此外，读者可以观察到，SE股票405.87美元的共识目标价(PT)与其当前价格之间的估值差距从未如此显着。这甚至比4月/5月的上一次大幅调整更加明显。值得注意的是，尽管存在所谓的“博弈阻力”，但共识价格目标仍被上调。而且，如果您查看价格图表，您会发现SE股价随着时间的推移非常一致地遵循修订后的PT趋势。因此，当前价格可能是您在很长一段时间内观察到的最显着的折扣之一。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939a544ab94c9e2a2b8a6db943703b39\" tg-width=\"910\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SE stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>SE股票DCF估值模型。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ，公司文件，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Our DCF model also shows that SE stock is now significantly undervalued with an implied fair value of $371.46. We have also used reasonable estimates in our model. Moreover, we believe that SE will continue to gain significant operating leverage as it scales in the new markets. We estimate that its adjusted EBITDA margins could reach 15% by FY25.</p><p><blockquote>我们的DCF模型还显示，SE股票目前被严重低估，隐含公允价值为371.46美元。我们在模型中也使用了合理的估计。此外，我们相信，随着SE在新市场的扩大规模，它将继续获得巨大的运营杠杆。我们估计，到2025财年，其调整后EBITDA利润率可能达到15%。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, the stock is also testing a critical support level that has strongly underpinned the stock's advance since early 2021. Therefore, there are sufficient reasons to believe that the current entry point to add exposure to SE stock seems very attractive now.</p><p><blockquote>最后，该股还在测试关键支撑位，该支撑位自2021年初以来有力支撑了该股的上涨。因此，有足够的理由相信，目前增加SE股票敞口的切入点现在看来非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently,<i>we revise our rating on SE stock to Strong Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，<i>我们将SE股票评级修改为强力买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475931-sea-se-down-significantly-stock-strong-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475931-sea-se-down-significantly-stock-strong-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109541249","content_text":"Summary\n\nSea Limited stock has been battered recently as growth stocks sold off massively in the market.\nHowever, we believe that the fundamental thesis on its rapid growth remains robust.\nWe discuss why investors should capitalize on its recent significant correction to add exposure.\n\nkokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSea Limited(NYSE:SE) stock is one of our highest conviction growth stocks that has been severely battered over the last month. Since its recent all-time high (ATH) in October, its price has dropped by a dramatic 43%. Many reasons have been presented on why the stock has fallen. We exhort investors not to read too much into them. We believe nothing material has changed from its fundamental thesis. The stock has had a remarkable run in 2021 relative to its gaming peers or e-tailer peers. Therefore, profit-taking of this extent should not be surprising as fear struck growth stocks.\nMoreover, the recent significant correction in growth stocks across the market has also hit SE stock hard. But, we are not concerned. Significant volatility will always be a factor influencing the performance of growth stocks like SE in the short term.\nNotably, we observed that the consensus target price on SE stock had been revised upwards since its FQ3 report card. Moreover, the gap between its price target and its current stock price has been greater than its last significant correction in April/May.\nOur internal DCF valuation model also points to a stock that is now significantly undervalued. Thanks to the market's myopia, we have been presented with another fantastic opportunity since April/May to add SE stock with great fervor again.\nWe discuss why we think investors should not miss this incredible opportunity to add exposure to an outstanding growth stock.\nSE Stock YTD Performance\nSE stock YTD performance (as of 17 December'21).\nAs a result of the significant correction recently, SE stock's YTD return has dropped to 6.9%, thus underperforming the market. Notably, its YTD gain was as high as 80% in October/early November. Despite that, the stock is still outperforming its e-tailer and gaming peers, as shown above.\nSea Stock Estimates Have Consistently Been Revised Upwards\nSea Limited revised revenue mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha\nReaders can quickly observe that the company's revenue consensus estimates for FY21-23 have consistently been revised upwards over the last five months. These revisions lend credence to the robust growth prospects of the company over the next two years. Notably, Sea Limited's revenue is estimated to increase at a phenomenal CAGR of 42.8% through FY23.\nThere were concerns over the growth rates of its Garena gaming arm in its FQ3 report card.We also explained in our previous article that Sea Limited has clearly explained that investors should expect normalization in Garena's growth after two spectacular years. However, its monetization capability continues to dazzle. Therefore, we are confident that Garena can continue its robust monetization strategies moving forward.\nMoreover, data from Sensor Tower's recent gaming statistics continue to point to sturdy performance from its Free Fire game. It continues to be ranked among the top ten mobile games in terms of overall gaming revenue in November. Moreover, it's also ranked#2 in overall downloadsacross both the App Store and Google Play. Notably, it's also among eight games globally whose annual revenue crossed $1B as of 14 December. Therefore, we think the sentiments and chatter about Free Fire's \"one-shot wonder\" have been overblown.\nGlobal games market forecast. Source: Google, Newzoo\nIn addition, the global gaming market is estimated to experience a slight decline to $175.8B after last year's massive 23% growth to $177.8B. However, given Garena's impressive growth in FY21 despite the decline in the global market, we believe it validates its business model and prospects. Notably, the gaming market is expected to reverse its decline moving forward. Therefore, Garena's leadership in mobile gaming could continue to propel its growth underpinned by the recovery in the global gaming market.\nShopee adjusted EBITDA per order. Data source: Company filings\nBut, some investors may have been spooked by Shopee's (Sea Limited's e-commerce arm) continued expansion into new geographical markets. Notably, Shopee continues to report adjusted EBITDA loss per order, as shown above. Therefore, some investors might have been concerned about whether the company's plate is getting too much to handle. Over the last three months, the company has entered into new markets such as India, France, Spain, and Poland. They are in addition to its battle with MercadoLibre (MELI) in Latin America, particularly Brazil. As a result, there are concerns on whether Sea Limited could continue its adroit execution in these markets while still making losses. We believe such concerns are valid. However, Sea Limited has shown its tremendous capability in penetrating the most important markets where the incumbents have strong leadership. It includes Lazada (BABA) in Southeast Asia, MercadoLibre in Brazil, and Tokopedia in Indonesia. Shopee was never the first-mover. But, it took advantage as the \"late-comer\" as it sought to compete with the incumbents. It's important to note that Sea Limited is not averse to competition. It has thrived against the incumbents and has made the e-commerce space in these geographical regions much more competitive.\nSea Limited revised adjusted EPS mean consensus estimates. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, Seeking Alpha\nNevertheless, the road towards profitability might be stretched further due to its e-commerce expansion. Readers can quickly glance over the chart above, where its adjusted EPS estimates have been revised downwards through FY23 over the last five months. However, we believe that if you are a long-term investor with a five-year horizon at least, it's not a cause for concern. Earlier investors in Sea Limited can keenly recall the company's massive adjusted EBITDA per order losses, as seen in the previous chart. Shopee has scaled tremendously over the last five years and has improved its operating leverage further. But, it's important to note that it takes time to scale up. Therefore, earlier losses in new geographical markets are expected. But, management has demonstrated its execution capability over the last three years. Considering its much reduced adjusted EBITDA losses over the previous few years, we believe that Shopee is even better positioned than before to navigate its expansion.\nSo, is SE Stock a Buy Now?\nSE stock EV/NTM Revenue 4Y mean.\nSE stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 8.3x. Therefore, it has brought it back to its 4Y NTM revenue multiple mean of 8.6x. We believe there's a fantastic opportunity right now as the market has undoubtedly overreacted. As demonstrated clearly, SE is still expected to generate massive revenue growth moving ahead, even though it means the road to profitability gets further extended.\nConsidering its FY23 revenue estimate, SE stock is trading at just 5.8x FY23 revenue. No one can accurately predict where the stock will be headed over the next few months. But, we think it represents a tremendous opportunity right now.\nSE stock price target Vs. actual price trend. Source: Seeking Alpha\nMoreover, readers can observe that the valuation gap between SE stock's consensus price target (PT) of $405.87 and its current price has never been more significant in a while. It's even more pronounced than its last significant correction in April/May. Notably, the consensus price target has been revised upwards despite the so-called \"gaming headwinds.\" And, if you look at the price chart, SE stock price has followed the revised PT trend very consistently over time. Therefore, the current price could be one of the most significant discounts you could observe in a long time.\nSE stock DCF valuation model. Data source: S&P Capital IQ, company filings, author\nOur DCF model also shows that SE stock is now significantly undervalued with an implied fair value of $371.46. We have also used reasonable estimates in our model. Moreover, we believe that SE will continue to gain significant operating leverage as it scales in the new markets. We estimate that its adjusted EBITDA margins could reach 15% by FY25.\nLastly, the stock is also testing a critical support level that has strongly underpinned the stock's advance since early 2021. Therefore, there are sufficient reasons to believe that the current entry point to add exposure to SE stock seems very attractive now.\nConsequently,we revise our rating on SE stock to Strong Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}