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老熊888
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老熊888
老熊888
·
07-29
$黄金主连 2508(GCmain)$
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老熊888
老熊888
·
07-25
$黄金主连 2508(GCmain)$
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老熊888
老熊888
·
07-08
$黄金主连 2508(GCmain)$
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老熊888
老熊888
·
06-17
$黄金主连 2508(GCmain)$
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老熊888
老熊888
·
05-30
$黄金主连 2508(GCmain)$
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老熊888
老熊888
·
05-30
$黄金主连 2508(GCmain)$
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老熊888
老熊888
·
2024-12-30
1%就不要叫什么跳水式了小编
美股三大指数期货快速下挫，标普、纳指期货跌逾1%
“跳水式”下挫。
美股三大指数期货快速下挫，标普、纳指期货跌逾1%
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老熊888
老熊888
·
2024-08-13
要点脸吗
英伟达市值一夜大增1050亿美元！美银分析师力挺，瑞穗将目标价上调至132美元
美东时间周一，AI芯片巨头 $英伟达$ 涨超4%，市值一夜大涨1050亿美元。该行在最新发布的一份报告中表示，投资者应该忽略与英伟达下一代Blackwell芯片可能延迟相关的噪音，并指出市场对其GPU芯片的需求仍然持续不断。瑞穗表示，英伟达当前一代H100和H200芯片的产能仍然“紧张”，Blackwell的任何延迟都不会影响需求，只会使公司的收入延迟约两到三个月。该行将英伟达的目标价从127.50美元上调至132美元。
英伟达市值一夜大增1050亿美元！美银分析师力挺，瑞穗将目标价上调至132美元
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老熊888
老熊888
·
2023-06-13
到处喊空居心叵测
越看越像2008！美股本轮“牛市”实则暗藏杀机？
小摩CIO警告称，当前的经济局势与2008年的全球金融危机有太多相似之处，“威胁”总是会被忽视，直到真正爆发……古话常说，不从历史中吸取教训的人注定要重蹈覆辙。摩根大通的CIO认为，市场可能需要上一门
越看越像2008！美股本轮“牛市”实则暗藏杀机？
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老熊888
老熊888
·
2023-02-19
写了那么多，都是废话。
非常抱歉，此主贴已删除
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21:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周一，美股三大指数期货在盘前时段“跳水式”下挫。截至发稿，标普、纳指100指数期货快速跌逾1%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33cca941262f9f112c4a28f2de18ff99\" tg-width=\"1406\" tg-height=\"655\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a68b5381471a16413a0b762cfd074ee\" tg-width=\"1406\" tg-height=\"646\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7ec3d0dd1f01bca738ed37472f7e72a","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105142035","content_text":"周一，美股三大指数期货在盘前时段“跳水式”下挫。截至发稿，标普、纳指100指数期货快速跌逾1%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":1.1,"NQmain":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1442,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337861935976576,"gmtCreate":1723506376132,"gmtModify":1723509878832,"author":{"id":"4106434578722330","authorId":"4106434578722330","name":"老熊888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/699141ee7d4cd9bd23ccd35fe1018fbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106434578722330","authorIdStr":"4106434578722330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"要点脸吗","listText":"要点脸吗","text":"要点脸吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337861935976576","repostId":"1169781546","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169781546","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1723505467,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1169781546?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-13 07:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达市值一夜大增1050亿美元！美银分析师力挺，瑞穗将目标价上调至132美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169781546","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"美东时间周一，AI芯片巨头 $英伟达$ 涨超4%，市值一夜大涨1050亿美元。该行在最新发布的一份报告中表示，投资者应该忽略与英伟达下一代Blackwell芯片可能延迟相关的噪音，并指出市场对其GPU芯片的需求仍然持续不断。瑞穗表示，英伟达当前一代H100和H200芯片的产能仍然“紧张”，Blackwell的任何延迟都不会影响需求，只会使公司的收入延迟约两到三个月。该行将英伟达的目标价从127.50美元上调至132美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美东时间周一，AI芯片巨头 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 涨超4%，市值一夜大涨1050亿美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a09983a52f0161b44d6c0a94cacf9e2c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>美银证券(BofA)分析师Vivek Arya表示，如果半导体行业反弹，英伟达(Nvidia Corp., NVDA)的股票看起来会是一个不错的选择。</p><p>Arya预计，该行业可能会在今年第四季度反弹，因为到那时季节性逆风可能会消退。他表示，投资者正在等待英伟达将于本月晚些时候发布的财报，但9月传统上是费城半导体指数表现最差的月份，因此投资者可能还需要一些耐心。</p><p>好消息是，芯片股通常在第四季度和第一季度表现要好得多，这种动态有助于Arya做出反弹的预测。在这种情况下，英伟达、博通(Broadcom Inc., AVGO)和KLA Corp. (KLAC)是他的首选，因为这些公司是“各自终端市场中最赚钱的供应商”。</p><p>另外，根据瑞穗证券（Mizuho）的说法，该股仍有很大的上涨空间，其即将发布的业绩报告将成为人工智能（AI）股票的主要催化剂。</p><p>该行在最新发布的一份报告中表示，投资者应该忽略与英伟达下一代Blackwell芯片可能延迟相关的噪音，并指出市场对其GPU芯片的需求仍然持续不断。</p><p>瑞穗表示，英伟达当前一代H100和H200芯片的产能仍然“紧张”，Blackwell的任何延迟都不会影响需求，只会使公司的收入延迟约两到三个月。该行将英伟达的目标价从127.50美元上调至132美元。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达市值一夜大增1050亿美元！美银分析师力挺，瑞穗将目标价上调至132美元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达市值一夜大增1050亿美元！美银分析师力挺，瑞穗将目标价上调至132美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-13 07:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美东时间周一，AI芯片巨头 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a> 涨超4%，市值一夜大涨1050亿美元。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a09983a52f0161b44d6c0a94cacf9e2c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>美银证券(BofA)分析师Vivek Arya表示，如果半导体行业反弹，英伟达(Nvidia Corp., NVDA)的股票看起来会是一个不错的选择。</p><p>Arya预计，该行业可能会在今年第四季度反弹，因为到那时季节性逆风可能会消退。他表示，投资者正在等待英伟达将于本月晚些时候发布的财报，但9月传统上是费城半导体指数表现最差的月份，因此投资者可能还需要一些耐心。</p><p>好消息是，芯片股通常在第四季度和第一季度表现要好得多，这种动态有助于Arya做出反弹的预测。在这种情况下，英伟达、博通(Broadcom Inc., AVGO)和KLA Corp. (KLAC)是他的首选，因为这些公司是“各自终端市场中最赚钱的供应商”。</p><p>另外，根据瑞穗证券（Mizuho）的说法，该股仍有很大的上涨空间，其即将发布的业绩报告将成为人工智能（AI）股票的主要催化剂。</p><p>该行在最新发布的一份报告中表示，投资者应该忽略与英伟达下一代Blackwell芯片可能延迟相关的噪音，并指出市场对其GPU芯片的需求仍然持续不断。</p><p>瑞穗表示，英伟达当前一代H100和H200芯片的产能仍然“紧张”，Blackwell的任何延迟都不会影响需求，只会使公司的收入延迟约两到三个月。该行将英伟达的目标价从127.50美元上调至132美元。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169781546","content_text":"美东时间周一，AI芯片巨头 英伟达 涨超4%，市值一夜大涨1050亿美元。美银证券(BofA)分析师Vivek Arya表示，如果半导体行业反弹，英伟达(Nvidia Corp., NVDA)的股票看起来会是一个不错的选择。Arya预计，该行业可能会在今年第四季度反弹，因为到那时季节性逆风可能会消退。他表示，投资者正在等待英伟达将于本月晚些时候发布的财报，但9月传统上是费城半导体指数表现最差的月份，因此投资者可能还需要一些耐心。好消息是，芯片股通常在第四季度和第一季度表现要好得多，这种动态有助于Arya做出反弹的预测。在这种情况下，英伟达、博通(Broadcom Inc., AVGO)和KLA Corp. (KLAC)是他的首选，因为这些公司是“各自终端市场中最赚钱的供应商”。另外，根据瑞穗证券（Mizuho）的说法，该股仍有很大的上涨空间，其即将发布的业绩报告将成为人工智能（AI）股票的主要催化剂。该行在最新发布的一份报告中表示，投资者应该忽略与英伟达下一代Blackwell芯片可能延迟相关的噪音，并指出市场对其GPU芯片的需求仍然持续不断。瑞穗表示，英伟达当前一代H100和H200芯片的产能仍然“紧张”，Blackwell的任何延迟都不会影响需求，只会使公司的收入延迟约两到三个月。该行将英伟达的目标价从127.50美元上调至132美元。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":186961614184480,"gmtCreate":1686668721971,"gmtModify":1686673226299,"author":{"id":"4106434578722330","authorId":"4106434578722330","name":"老熊888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/699141ee7d4cd9bd23ccd35fe1018fbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106434578722330","authorIdStr":"4106434578722330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"到处喊空居心叵测","listText":"到处喊空居心叵测","text":"到处喊空居心叵测","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/186961614184480","repostId":"1194334875","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194334875","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1686646811,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1194334875?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-06-13 17:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"越看越像2008！美股本轮“牛市”实则暗藏杀机？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194334875","media":"金十数据","summary":"小摩CIO警告称，当前的经济局势与2008年的全球金融危机有太多相似之处，“威胁”总是会被忽视，直到真正爆发……古话常说，不从历史中吸取教训的人注定要重蹈覆辙。摩根大通的CIO认为，市场可能需要上一门","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>小摩CIO警告称，当前的经济局势与2008年的全球金融危机有太多相似之处，“威胁”总是会被忽视，直到真正爆发……</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">古话常说，不从历史中吸取教训的人注定要重蹈覆辙。摩根大通的CIO认为，<strong>市场可能需要上一门“历史补习课”</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">负责管理坐拥7000亿美元资产的摩根大通CIO Bob Michele认为，<strong>当前的经济局势与2008年全球金融危机有太多相似之处</strong>，因此<strong>不能轻率地排除危机重演的可能性</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管美国已有四家大银行在今年春天倒闭，但事实证明，经济数据具有弹性，股票价格继续走高，这是因为人们认为，AI将使社会生产力大幅提高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">15年前，摩根大通收购了华尔街第五大投资银行贝尔斯登，以避免其破产，这与最近收购第一共和银行的做法如出一辙，后者似乎阻止了危机在地区银行业中的进一步蔓延。Michele在接受外媒采访时表示：</p><blockquote>“这确实让我想起2008年3-6月的那段时期（摩根大通收购贝尔斯登交易后三个月的市场涨势），市场认为出现了一场危机，但有了政策回应，市场以为危机得到了解决。”</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>这位摩根大通CIO目前正在对自己的资产进行压力测试，以应对未来几个季度经济活动收缩3%至5%的情况</strong>，因为他不相信高盛的乐观预测，即美国甚至可以避免已经降临欧洲的那种温和衰退。他表示：“如果没有衰退，这将是一个奇迹”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Michele还兼任摩根大通资产管理部门固定收益业务的全球主管。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>风险“无处不在”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">庞大的经济规模往往意味着，当所谓的“建筑外墙”出现漏水时，内部早已出现了结构性损伤。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">许多华尔街资深人士在美国上一次面临如此高的通胀率时还没有开始他们的职业生涯，美联储的严厉紧缩政策可能还没有被他们感受到，这是因为实际利率，即使用美联储青睐的4.4%的年化通胀率进行调整后的利率，虽然不再为负，但还没有达到对经济增长构成实质性限制的程度。 </p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管住宅地产已不再那么令人担忧，但随着人们转向远程办公，<strong>商业地产行业的空置率飙升</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据房地产数据提供商Trepp的数据，到2027年，美国将有超过<strong>1.4万亿美元</strong>的商业地产贷款到期，仅今年就有2700亿美元到期。<strong>这些债务中的大部分将不得不以更高的利率展期。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">“有很多公司坐拥非常低成本的资金”，Michele说。“当他们进行再融资时，债务将增加一倍、两倍，或者甚至无法展期，他们将不得不经历某种重组或违约”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对投资者来说，<strong>另一个危险信号是债务上限谈判的余震</strong>，即财政部需要补充其一般账户，因为此前的债务上限僵局，其一般账户已接近枯竭。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现在，一波价值1万亿美元的政府债券海啸预计将在9月前冲击市场，而此前Michele警告称，<strong>美联储已经通过量化紧缩每月抽走950亿美元的流动性</strong>，这些流动性是支撑资产价格的“氧气”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对此，去年最赚的对冲基金Citadel的CEO、亿万富翁Ken Griffin认为，<strong>以目前的估值来看，人工智能炒作更多的是泡沫</strong>，<strong>如果之后资金从风险较高的股票流向回报可观的更安全的债券，可能会打击股市。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>经济威胁一直被忽视，直到爆发</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">可能很少有人记得的是，次贷危机实际上是一辆行驶缓慢的“火车残骸”，当时<strong>很少有人能想象到2008年下半年将出现降临全球的灾难。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2007年3月底，当时的美联储主席伯南克告诉国会，次级抵押贷款市场对整体经济的溢出风险“可能得到控制”。在他发表讲话的时候，美国最大的向信用评分较差的购房者提供贷款的独立机构新世纪金融（New Century Financial）已经摇摇欲坠，一周后，它最终申请破产保护。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>贝尔斯登的问题直到次年6月才开始显现</strong>，当时这家投资银行策划了一项32亿美元的救援计划，以拯救其旗下从事美国房地产市场投机的对冲基金。2008年3月，它与摩根大通的“仓促联姻”似乎标志着危机的高潮，但又过了<strong>6个月</strong>，雷曼兄弟才破产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同样重要的是，雷曼兄弟虽然是最引人注目的受害者，但不是唯一一个。当时全球最大的保险公司美国国际集团（AIG Financial Products）要求纳税人提供惊人的1820亿美元援助，原因是AIG金融产品部门的一小部分伦敦雇员进行了高风险的押注。华盛顿互惠银行、美联银行和美林等大型银行要么倒闭，要么被廉价收购。Michele总结道：</p><blockquote>“有很多事情与2008年产生了共鸣。然而，在它发生之前，它在很大程度上被忽视了。”</blockquote></body></html>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>越看越像2008！美股本轮“牛市”实则暗藏杀机？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n越看越像2008！美股本轮“牛市”实则暗藏杀机？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-13 17:00 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114830><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小摩CIO警告称，当前的经济局势与2008年的全球金融危机有太多相似之处，“威胁”总是会被忽视，直到真正爆发……古话常说，不从历史中吸取教训的人注定要重蹈覆辙。摩根大通的CIO认为，市场可能需要上一门“历史补习课”。负责管理坐拥7000亿美元资产的摩根大通CIO Bob Michele认为，当前的经济局势与2008年全球金融危机有太多相似之处，因此不能轻率地排除危机重演的可能性。尽管美国已有四家大...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114830\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/114830","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194334875","content_text":"小摩CIO警告称，当前的经济局势与2008年的全球金融危机有太多相似之处，“威胁”总是会被忽视，直到真正爆发……古话常说，不从历史中吸取教训的人注定要重蹈覆辙。摩根大通的CIO认为，市场可能需要上一门“历史补习课”。负责管理坐拥7000亿美元资产的摩根大通CIO Bob Michele认为，当前的经济局势与2008年全球金融危机有太多相似之处，因此不能轻率地排除危机重演的可能性。尽管美国已有四家大银行在今年春天倒闭，但事实证明，经济数据具有弹性，股票价格继续走高，这是因为人们认为，AI将使社会生产力大幅提高。15年前，摩根大通收购了华尔街第五大投资银行贝尔斯登，以避免其破产，这与最近收购第一共和银行的做法如出一辙，后者似乎阻止了危机在地区银行业中的进一步蔓延。Michele在接受外媒采访时表示：“这确实让我想起2008年3-6月的那段时期（摩根大通收购贝尔斯登交易后三个月的市场涨势），市场认为出现了一场危机，但有了政策回应，市场以为危机得到了解决。”这位摩根大通CIO目前正在对自己的资产进行压力测试，以应对未来几个季度经济活动收缩3%至5%的情况，因为他不相信高盛的乐观预测，即美国甚至可以避免已经降临欧洲的那种温和衰退。他表示：“如果没有衰退，这将是一个奇迹”。Michele还兼任摩根大通资产管理部门固定收益业务的全球主管。风险“无处不在”庞大的经济规模往往意味着，当所谓的“建筑外墙”出现漏水时，内部早已出现了结构性损伤。许多华尔街资深人士在美国上一次面临如此高的通胀率时还没有开始他们的职业生涯，美联储的严厉紧缩政策可能还没有被他们感受到，这是因为实际利率，即使用美联储青睐的4.4%的年化通胀率进行调整后的利率，虽然不再为负，但还没有达到对经济增长构成实质性限制的程度。 尽管住宅地产已不再那么令人担忧，但随着人们转向远程办公，商业地产行业的空置率飙升。根据房地产数据提供商Trepp的数据，到2027年，美国将有超过1.4万亿美元的商业地产贷款到期，仅今年就有2700亿美元到期。这些债务中的大部分将不得不以更高的利率展期。“有很多公司坐拥非常低成本的资金”，Michele说。“当他们进行再融资时，债务将增加一倍、两倍，或者甚至无法展期，他们将不得不经历某种重组或违约”。对投资者来说，另一个危险信号是债务上限谈判的余震，即财政部需要补充其一般账户，因为此前的债务上限僵局，其一般账户已接近枯竭。现在，一波价值1万亿美元的政府债券海啸预计将在9月前冲击市场，而此前Michele警告称，美联储已经通过量化紧缩每月抽走950亿美元的流动性，这些流动性是支撑资产价格的“氧气”。对此，去年最赚的对冲基金Citadel的CEO、亿万富翁Ken Griffin认为，以目前的估值来看，人工智能炒作更多的是泡沫，如果之后资金从风险较高的股票流向回报可观的更安全的债券，可能会打击股市。经济威胁一直被忽视，直到爆发可能很少有人记得的是，次贷危机实际上是一辆行驶缓慢的“火车残骸”，当时很少有人能想象到2008年下半年将出现降临全球的灾难。2007年3月底，当时的美联储主席伯南克告诉国会，次级抵押贷款市场对整体经济的溢出风险“可能得到控制”。在他发表讲话的时候，美国最大的向信用评分较差的购房者提供贷款的独立机构新世纪金融（New Century Financial）已经摇摇欲坠，一周后，它最终申请破产保护。贝尔斯登的问题直到次年6月才开始显现，当时这家投资银行策划了一项32亿美元的救援计划，以拯救其旗下从事美国房地产市场投机的对冲基金。2008年3月，它与摩根大通的“仓促联姻”似乎标志着危机的高潮，但又过了6个月，雷曼兄弟才破产。同样重要的是，雷曼兄弟虽然是最引人注目的受害者，但不是唯一一个。当时全球最大的保险公司美国国际集团（AIG Financial Products）要求纳税人提供惊人的1820亿美元援助，原因是AIG金融产品部门的一小部分伦敦雇员进行了高风险的押注。华盛顿互惠银行、美联银行和美林等大型银行要么倒闭，要么被廉价收购。Michele总结道：“有很多事情与2008年产生了共鸣。然而，在它发生之前，它在很大程度上被忽视了。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625799511,"gmtCreate":1676775531633,"gmtModify":1676775991790,"author":{"id":"4106434578722330","authorId":"4106434578722330","name":"老熊888","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/699141ee7d4cd9bd23ccd35fe1018fbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4106434578722330","authorIdStr":"4106434578722330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"写了那么多，都是废话。","listText":"写了那么多，都是废话。","text":"写了那么多，都是废话。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625799511","repostId":"1142171733","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}