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- bo叔bo叔
  ·2022-10-24
  压根没说到核心问题
  Alibaba: It Could Get Worse<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：情况可能会变得更糟</blockquote>
  SummaryShort interest in Alibaba spiked by over 7% sequentially and it's up nearly 50% since April.A
  Alibaba: It Could Get Worse<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：情况可能会变得更糟</blockquote>
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Latest data reveals that short interest in the stock has spiked 7% in the last reporting cycle. This rapid short build up suggeststhat market participants might perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and likely anticipate it to fall further in the coming days and weeks. This should encourage Alibaba investors to reassess their investment thesis and avoid trying to catch falling knives. Let’s take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW的空头兴趣环比飙升超过7%，自4月份以来已增长近50%。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW的前景似乎几乎每隔一周就会恶化，这可能就是它在做空界迅速流行的原因。</li><li>该股似乎将进一步下跌，投资者可能希望避免试图接住掉落的刀。</li></ul>阿里巴巴-SW(NYSE：BABA)股价今年迄今已下跌35%，但低迷可能尚未结束。最新数据显示，在上一个报告周期中，该股的空头兴趣飙升了7%。这种快速的空头积累表明，市场参与者可能认为该股在当前水平上被高估，并可能预计该股在未来几天和几周内进一步下跌。这应该会鼓励阿里巴巴-SW投资者重新评估他们的投资论点，避免试图接住掉落的刀。让我们仔细看看这一切。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Elevated Shorting Activity</b></h2>Let me start by saying that short interest is basically the total number of short positions that are open and are yet to be covered at the end of each bi-monthly reporting cycle. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants are actively placing short bets against a given stock with the anticipation that it would quickly decline in value in the foreseeable future. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that short-side traders are closing their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly-valued, with limited downside potential. So, the short interest metric is a handy tool to gauge the Street’s ever-evolving sentiment pertaining to any given stock.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>短路活动升高</b></h2>首先我要说的是，空头利息基本上是每个双月报告周期结束时未平仓且尚未回补的空头头寸总数。该指标的急剧上升表明市场参与者正在积极做空特定股票，预计该股票的价值将在可预见的未来迅速下跌。相反，该指标的急剧下降表明空头交易者正在平仓空头头寸，因为他们认为该股估值合理，下行潜力有限。因此，空头利息指标是衡量华尔街对任何特定股票不断变化的情绪的便捷工具。</blockquote></p><p>As far as Alibaba is concerned, its short interest amounted to 59 million at the end of the latest reporting cycle ending September 30. This figure is up 7.2% sequentially and up 47% over the past 5 months alone, indicating that market participants have gradually stacked their short-side bets against the company in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>就阿里巴巴-SW而言，截至9月30日的最新报告周期结束时，其空头利息达5900万美元。这一数字环比上涨7.2%，仅在过去5个月就上涨了47%，表明市场参与者近几个月来逐渐加大了对该公司的空头押注。</blockquote></p><p>This short interest build up is rather counterintuitive as the stock has been dropping continuously and it should have, in theory at least, encouraged short-side market participants to close their shorts and book profits. But the fact that short interest in Alibaba continues to rise, in spite of its dropping stock price, suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and are betting on the stock to fall further going forward.</p><p><blockquote>这种空头兴趣的增加是相当违反直觉的，因为该股一直在持续下跌，至少在理论上，它应该鼓励空头市场参与者平仓并获利。但尽管阿里巴巴-SW股价下跌，但空头兴趣持续上升，这一事实表明市场参与者认为该股目前水平被高估，并押注该股未来将进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2f95098c8f6d45998f55472f8d16d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>Next, I wanted to compare Alibaba with other US-listed e-commerce stocks to have a better understanding of shorting activity in the said industry. If the market is betting against the vast majority of such stocks, then Alibaba wouldn’t come across as the odd one out. But that’s not quite the case here. As it turns out, short interest in Alibaba rose much faster than a broad swath of 30 other US-listed stocks that are engaged in e-commerce businesses. This confirms that market participants are more or less neutral on the industry but specifically bearish on Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我想将阿里巴巴-SW与其他在美国上市的电子商务股票进行比较，以更好地了解该行业的做空活动。如果市场做空绝大多数此类股票，那么阿里巴巴-SW就不会给人留下例外的印象。但这里的情况并非如此。事实证明，阿里巴巴-SW的空头兴趣增长速度远快于其他30只从事电子商务业务的美国上市股票。这证实了市场参与者对该行业或多或少持中立态度，但特别看跌阿里巴巴-SW。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6019ac925a96524d96e2dc53d1823155\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>This raises an important question now – why are market participants actively shorting Alibaba even though its shares have crashed significantly and are seemingly undervalued?</p><p><blockquote>现在这就提出了一个重要的问题——为什么市场参与者在阿里巴巴-SW股价大幅暴跌且看似被低估的情况下仍在积极做空？</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Reasons Fueling Pessimism</b></h2>First of all, I’d like to clear the misconception that Alibaba is undervalued after its recent correction. It may seem undervalued on a standalone basis but that’s not really the case when we look at industry comparables. The chart below should put things in perspective.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>加剧悲观情绪的原因</b></h2>首先，我想澄清一下阿里巴巴-SW在最近的调整后被低估的误解。单独来看，它似乎被低估了，但当我们观察行业可比产品时，情况并非如此。下面的图表应该能让你正确看待事情。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02a8cdb767bb27a98904344d984815f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQiant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQiant.com</blockquote></p><p>The Y-axis plots the enterprise value-to-free cash flow (or EV/FCF) values for over 30 stocks that are classified in the e-commerce/internet retail industry. Note how Alibaba is vertically positioned much higher than a broad swath of its mentioned peers, indicating that the stock is trading at a relative premium.</p><p><blockquote>Y轴绘制了电子商务/互联网零售行业30多只股票的企业价值与自由现金流（或EV/FCF）值。请注意，阿里巴巴-SW的垂直定位远高于上述众多同行，这表明该股的交易价格相对溢价。</blockquote></p><p>Now, let’s shift attention to the X-axis, which plots the free cash flow growth for the same set of companies. Note how Alibaba is horizontally positioned more or less in the middle, indicating that its free cash flow growth is in-line with the industry averages.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们将注意力转移到X轴上，它绘制了同一组公司的自由现金流增长情况。请注意，阿里巴巴-SW或多或少处于中间位置，这表明其自由现金流增长与行业平均水平一致。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The collective takeaway from both the axes here is that Alibaba is a mediocre performer in terms of free cash flow growth but its shares are trading at a premium nonetheless. There are in fact 4 other stocks in the e-commerce industry that are growing free cash flows at a rate faster than Alibaba, but their shares still trading at a lower EV/FCF multiple.</p><p><blockquote>这两个轴的共同结论是，阿里巴巴-SW在自由现金流增长方面表现平平，但其股价仍处于溢价状态。事实上，电子商务行业还有另外4只股票的自由现金流增长速度快于阿里巴巴-SW，但它们的股票EV/FCF倍数仍较低。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not like the business prospects are improving or signaling impending growth for Alibaba, either. Much like the US, analysts and rating agencies have been slashing GDP growth forecasts for China almost every other week. This deteriorating macroeconomic environment is bound to limit personal disposable income and hinder consumer spending across major economies, which will inevitably weigh down on Alibaba’s business. We’re already seeing analysts slashing their revenue estimates for the company and I contend that more cuts shall follow in the coming 2 to 3 months at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的商业前景也没有改善，也没有预示着即将增长。就像美国一样，分析师和评级机构几乎每隔一周就会大幅下调中国GDP增长预期。这种不断恶化的宏观经济环境势必限制个人可支配收入，阻碍各主要经济体的消费支出，这将不可避免地拖累阿里巴巴-SW的业务。我们已经看到分析师大幅削减了对该公司的收入预期，我认为至少在未来2到3个月内还会有更多的削减。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9940fbe16823a8aecadd41f1e3818a9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>What exacerbates the problem is that we don’t know how far along will revenue expectations drop for Alibaba. Maybe 2 months down the line, we’d have slashed our revenue estimates for Alibaba by $10 billion or maybe it&#39;ll be $30 billion, we just don’t know. This heightened uncertainty amidst growing recessionary fears, makes it difficult for anyone to call a bottom for an e-commerce company such as Alibaba. So, this is another major reason why we think we’re seeing short interest spike in the company’s shares of late.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，我们不知道阿里巴巴-SW的收入预期会下降多远。也许两个月后，我们会将阿里巴巴-SW的收入预期削减100亿美元，也可能是300亿美元，我们只是不知道。在对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧的情况下，这种不确定性加剧，使得任何人都很难看涨期权像阿里巴巴-SW这样的电子商务公司的底部。因此，这是我们认为最近该公司股票的空头兴趣激增的另一个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c95dde41ca2ea45ca9c28867d815701\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>There’s another variable at play here. US auditors flew to Hong Kong a few weeks ago to conduct audit inspections on US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba. These inspections are likely to last from 8-12 weeks and will reveal if Alibaba is audited in accordance with the US GAAP or if there are irregularities in its reporting. If it’s the latter, then it’ll fuel further fear, uncertainty and doubt about the legitimacy of Alibaba’s growth prospects, and fuel speculation about the quantum of penalty that might be imposed by US regulators. This essentially means the moment of truth is fast approaching for US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有另一个变量在起作用。美国审计人员数周前飞抵港，对阿里巴巴-SW等在美上市的中国公司进行审计检查。这些检查可能会持续8-12周，并将揭示阿里巴巴-SW是否按照美国公认会计准则进行审计，或者其报告是否存在违规行为。如果是后者，那么它将进一步加剧人们对阿里巴巴-SW增长前景合法性的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑，并加剧人们对美国监管机构可能实施的处罚力度的猜测。这实质上意味着，对于阿里巴巴-SW等在美上市的中国公司来说，关键时刻即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Final Thoughts</b></h2>The takeaway here is that Alibaba’s shares are trading at a premium relative to its peers, despite heightened macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the name. This is likely why short interest in the name has been surging and will continue to do so in the coming weeks as well. So, I believe that investors may want to avoid the stock for the time being, as it looks set to fall further from the current levels. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>最后的想法</b></h2>这里的要点是，尽管围绕该名称的宏观经济和监管不确定性加剧，但阿里巴巴-SW的股价相对于同行而言仍处于溢价状态。这可能就是为什么对该名称的空头兴趣一直在飙升，并且在未来几周内还将继续如此。因此，我认为投资者可能希望暂时避开该股，因为它看起来将从当前水平进一步下跌。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba: It Could Get Worse<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：情况可能会变得更糟</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba: It Could Get Worse<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW：情况可能会变得更糟</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-10-20 16:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><h2>Summary</h2><ul><li>Short interest in Alibaba spiked by over 7% sequentially and it&#39;s up nearly 50% since April.</li><li>Alibaba&#39;s prospects appear to be deteriorating almost every other week which is probably why it&#39;s quickly becoming popular in shorting circles.</li><li>The stock seems set to fall further and investors may want to avoid trying to catch falling knives.</li></ul><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99fd8bfbb6e746ad97e8ae396d55f7fb\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) shares are down 35% year to date but the downturn may not be over yet. Latest data reveals that short interest in the stock has spiked 7% in the last reporting cycle. This rapid short build up suggeststhat market participants might perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and likely anticipate it to fall further in the coming days and weeks. This should encourage Alibaba investors to reassess their investment thesis and avoid trying to catch falling knives. Let’s take a closer look at it all.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><h2>总结</h2><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW的空头兴趣环比飙升超过7%，自4月份以来已增长近50%。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW的前景似乎几乎每隔一周就会恶化，这可能就是它在做空界迅速流行的原因。</li><li>该股似乎将进一步下跌，投资者可能希望避免试图接住掉落的刀。</li></ul>阿里巴巴-SW(NYSE：BABA)股价今年迄今已下跌35%，但低迷可能尚未结束。最新数据显示，在上一个报告周期中，该股的空头兴趣飙升了7%。这种快速的空头积累表明，市场参与者可能认为该股在当前水平上被高估，并可能预计该股在未来几天和几周内进一步下跌。这应该会鼓励阿里巴巴-SW投资者重新评估他们的投资论点，避免试图接住掉落的刀。让我们仔细看看这一切。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Elevated Shorting Activity</b></h2>Let me start by saying that short interest is basically the total number of short positions that are open and are yet to be covered at the end of each bi-monthly reporting cycle. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants are actively placing short bets against a given stock with the anticipation that it would quickly decline in value in the foreseeable future. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that short-side traders are closing their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly-valued, with limited downside potential. So, the short interest metric is a handy tool to gauge the Street’s ever-evolving sentiment pertaining to any given stock.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>短路活动升高</b></h2>首先我要说的是，空头利息基本上是每个双月报告周期结束时未平仓且尚未回补的空头头寸总数。该指标的急剧上升表明市场参与者正在积极做空特定股票，预计该股票的价值将在可预见的未来迅速下跌。相反，该指标的急剧下降表明空头交易者正在平仓空头头寸，因为他们认为该股估值合理，下行潜力有限。因此，空头利息指标是衡量华尔街对任何特定股票不断变化的情绪的便捷工具。</blockquote></p><p>As far as Alibaba is concerned, its short interest amounted to 59 million at the end of the latest reporting cycle ending September 30. This figure is up 7.2% sequentially and up 47% over the past 5 months alone, indicating that market participants have gradually stacked their short-side bets against the company in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>就阿里巴巴-SW而言，截至9月30日的最新报告周期结束时，其空头利息达5900万美元。这一数字环比上涨7.2%，仅在过去5个月就上涨了47%，表明市场参与者近几个月来逐渐加大了对该公司的空头押注。</blockquote></p><p>This short interest build up is rather counterintuitive as the stock has been dropping continuously and it should have, in theory at least, encouraged short-side market participants to close their shorts and book profits. But the fact that short interest in Alibaba continues to rise, in spite of its dropping stock price, suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and are betting on the stock to fall further going forward.</p><p><blockquote>这种空头兴趣的增加是相当违反直觉的，因为该股一直在持续下跌，至少在理论上，它应该鼓励空头市场参与者平仓并获利。但尽管阿里巴巴-SW股价下跌，但空头兴趣持续上升，这一事实表明市场参与者认为该股目前水平被高估，并押注该股未来将进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf2f95098c8f6d45998f55472f8d16d6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>Next, I wanted to compare Alibaba with other US-listed e-commerce stocks to have a better understanding of shorting activity in the said industry. If the market is betting against the vast majority of such stocks, then Alibaba wouldn’t come across as the odd one out. But that’s not quite the case here. As it turns out, short interest in Alibaba rose much faster than a broad swath of 30 other US-listed stocks that are engaged in e-commerce businesses. This confirms that market participants are more or less neutral on the industry but specifically bearish on Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我想将阿里巴巴-SW与其他在美国上市的电子商务股票进行比较，以更好地了解该行业的做空活动。如果市场做空绝大多数此类股票，那么阿里巴巴-SW就不会给人留下例外的印象。但这里的情况并非如此。事实证明，阿里巴巴-SW的空头兴趣增长速度远快于其他30只从事电子商务业务的美国上市股票。这证实了市场参与者对该行业或多或少持中立态度，但特别看跌阿里巴巴-SW。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6019ac925a96524d96e2dc53d1823155\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"650\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>This raises an important question now – why are market participants actively shorting Alibaba even though its shares have crashed significantly and are seemingly undervalued?</p><p><blockquote>现在这就提出了一个重要的问题——为什么市场参与者在阿里巴巴-SW股价大幅暴跌且看似被低估的情况下仍在积极做空？</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Reasons Fueling Pessimism</b></h2>First of all, I’d like to clear the misconception that Alibaba is undervalued after its recent correction. It may seem undervalued on a standalone basis but that’s not really the case when we look at industry comparables. The chart below should put things in perspective.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>加剧悲观情绪的原因</b></h2>首先，我想澄清一下阿里巴巴-SW在最近的调整后被低估的误解。单独来看，它似乎被低估了，但当我们观察行业可比产品时，情况并非如此。下面的图表应该能让你正确看待事情。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02a8cdb767bb27a98904344d984815f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQiant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQiant.com</blockquote></p><p>The Y-axis plots the enterprise value-to-free cash flow (or EV/FCF) values for over 30 stocks that are classified in the e-commerce/internet retail industry. Note how Alibaba is vertically positioned much higher than a broad swath of its mentioned peers, indicating that the stock is trading at a relative premium.</p><p><blockquote>Y轴绘制了电子商务/互联网零售行业30多只股票的企业价值与自由现金流（或EV/FCF）值。请注意，阿里巴巴-SW的垂直定位远高于上述众多同行，这表明该股的交易价格相对溢价。</blockquote></p><p>Now, let’s shift attention to the X-axis, which plots the free cash flow growth for the same set of companies. Note how Alibaba is horizontally positioned more or less in the middle, indicating that its free cash flow growth is in-line with the industry averages.</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们将注意力转移到X轴上，它绘制了同一组公司的自由现金流增长情况。请注意，阿里巴巴-SW或多或少处于中间位置，这表明其自由现金流增长与行业平均水平一致。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The collective takeaway from both the axes here is that Alibaba is a mediocre performer in terms of free cash flow growth but its shares are trading at a premium nonetheless. There are in fact 4 other stocks in the e-commerce industry that are growing free cash flows at a rate faster than Alibaba, but their shares still trading at a lower EV/FCF multiple.</p><p><blockquote>这两个轴的共同结论是，阿里巴巴-SW在自由现金流增长方面表现平平，但其股价仍处于溢价状态。事实上，电子商务行业还有另外4只股票的自由现金流增长速度快于阿里巴巴-SW，但它们的股票EV/FCF倍数仍较低。</blockquote></p><p>It’s not like the business prospects are improving or signaling impending growth for Alibaba, either. Much like the US, analysts and rating agencies have been slashing GDP growth forecasts for China almost every other week. This deteriorating macroeconomic environment is bound to limit personal disposable income and hinder consumer spending across major economies, which will inevitably weigh down on Alibaba’s business. We’re already seeing analysts slashing their revenue estimates for the company and I contend that more cuts shall follow in the coming 2 to 3 months at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW的商业前景也没有改善，也没有预示着即将增长。就像美国一样，分析师和评级机构几乎每隔一周就会大幅下调中国GDP增长预期。这种不断恶化的宏观经济环境势必限制个人可支配收入，阻碍各主要经济体的消费支出，这将不可避免地拖累阿里巴巴-SW的业务。我们已经看到分析师大幅削减了对该公司的收入预期，我认为至少在未来2到3个月内还会有更多的削减。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9940fbe16823a8aecadd41f1e3818a9\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"435\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/>Data byYCharts</p><p><blockquote>数据来自YCharts</blockquote></p><p>What exacerbates the problem is that we don’t know how far along will revenue expectations drop for Alibaba. Maybe 2 months down the line, we’d have slashed our revenue estimates for Alibaba by $10 billion or maybe it&#39;ll be $30 billion, we just don’t know. This heightened uncertainty amidst growing recessionary fears, makes it difficult for anyone to call a bottom for an e-commerce company such as Alibaba. So, this is another major reason why we think we’re seeing short interest spike in the company’s shares of late.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，我们不知道阿里巴巴-SW的收入预期会下降多远。也许两个月后，我们会将阿里巴巴-SW的收入预期削减100亿美元，也可能是300亿美元，我们只是不知道。在对经济衰退的担忧日益加剧的情况下，这种不确定性加剧，使得任何人都很难看涨期权像阿里巴巴-SW这样的电子商务公司的底部。因此，这是我们认为最近该公司股票的空头兴趣激增的另一个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5c95dde41ca2ea45ca9c28867d815701\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>BusinessQuant.com</p><p><blockquote>BusinessQuant.com</blockquote></p><p>There’s another variable at play here. US auditors flew to Hong Kong a few weeks ago to conduct audit inspections on US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba. These inspections are likely to last from 8-12 weeks and will reveal if Alibaba is audited in accordance with the US GAAP or if there are irregularities in its reporting. If it’s the latter, then it’ll fuel further fear, uncertainty and doubt about the legitimacy of Alibaba’s growth prospects, and fuel speculation about the quantum of penalty that might be imposed by US regulators. This essentially means the moment of truth is fast approaching for US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba.</p><p><blockquote>这里还有另一个变量在起作用。美国审计人员数周前飞抵港，对阿里巴巴-SW等在美上市的中国公司进行审计检查。这些检查可能会持续8-12周，并将揭示阿里巴巴-SW是否按照美国公认会计准则进行审计，或者其报告是否存在违规行为。如果是后者，那么它将进一步加剧人们对阿里巴巴-SW增长前景合法性的恐惧、不确定性和怀疑，并加剧人们对美国监管机构可能实施的处罚力度的猜测。这实质上意味着，对于阿里巴巴-SW等在美上市的中国公司来说，关键时刻即将到来。</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Final Thoughts</b></h2>The takeaway here is that Alibaba’s shares are trading at a premium relative to its peers, despite heightened macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the name. This is likely why short interest in the name has been surging and will continue to do so in the coming weeks as well. So, I believe that investors may want to avoid the stock for the time being, as it looks set to fall further from the current levels. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>最后的想法</b></h2>这里的要点是，尽管围绕该名称的宏观经济和监管不确定性加剧，但阿里巴巴-SW的股价相对于同行而言仍处于溢价状态。这可能就是为什么对该名称的空头兴趣一直在飙升，并且在未来几周内还将继续如此。因此，我认为投资者可能希望暂时避开该股，因为它看起来将从当前水平进一步下跌。祝你好运！</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547525-alibaba-stock-it-could-get-worse\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4547525-alibaba-stock-it-could-get-worse","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111819580","content_text":"SummaryShort interest in Alibaba spiked by over 7% sequentially and it's up nearly 50% since April.Alibaba's prospects appear to be deteriorating almost every other week which is probably why it's quickly becoming popular in shorting circles.The stock seems set to fall further and investors may want to avoid trying to catch falling knives.Alibaba’s (NYSE:BABA) shares are down 35% year to date but the downturn may not be over yet. Latest data reveals that short interest in the stock has spiked 7% in the last reporting cycle. This rapid short build up suggeststhat market participants might perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and likely anticipate it to fall further in the coming days and weeks. This should encourage Alibaba investors to reassess their investment thesis and avoid trying to catch falling knives. Let’s take a closer look at it all.Elevated Shorting ActivityLet me start by saying that short interest is basically the total number of short positions that are open and are yet to be covered at the end of each bi-monthly reporting cycle. A sharp rise in the metric indicates that market participants are actively placing short bets against a given stock with the anticipation that it would quickly decline in value in the foreseeable future. Conversely, a sharp decline in the metric indicates that short-side traders are closing their short positions as they perceive the stock to be fairly-valued, with limited downside potential. So, the short interest metric is a handy tool to gauge the Street’s ever-evolving sentiment pertaining to any given stock.As far as Alibaba is concerned, its short interest amounted to 59 million at the end of the latest reporting cycle ending September 30. This figure is up 7.2% sequentially and up 47% over the past 5 months alone, indicating that market participants have gradually stacked their short-side bets against the company in recent months.This short interest build up is rather counterintuitive as the stock has been dropping continuously and it should have, in theory at least, encouraged short-side market participants to close their shorts and book profits. But the fact that short interest in Alibaba continues to rise, in spite of its dropping stock price, suggests that market participants perceive the stock to be overvalued at current levels and are betting on the stock to fall further going forward.BusinessQuant.comNext, I wanted to compare Alibaba with other US-listed e-commerce stocks to have a better understanding of shorting activity in the said industry. If the market is betting against the vast majority of such stocks, then Alibaba wouldn’t come across as the odd one out. But that’s not quite the case here. As it turns out, short interest in Alibaba rose much faster than a broad swath of 30 other US-listed stocks that are engaged in e-commerce businesses. This confirms that market participants are more or less neutral on the industry but specifically bearish on Alibaba.BusinessQuant.comThis raises an important question now – why are market participants actively shorting Alibaba even though its shares have crashed significantly and are seemingly undervalued?Reasons Fueling PessimismFirst of all, I’d like to clear the misconception that Alibaba is undervalued after its recent correction. It may seem undervalued on a standalone basis but that’s not really the case when we look at industry comparables. The chart below should put things in perspective.BusinessQiant.comThe Y-axis plots the enterprise value-to-free cash flow (or EV/FCF) values for over 30 stocks that are classified in the e-commerce/internet retail industry. Note how Alibaba is vertically positioned much higher than a broad swath of its mentioned peers, indicating that the stock is trading at a relative premium.Now, let’s shift attention to the X-axis, which plots the free cash flow growth for the same set of companies. Note how Alibaba is horizontally positioned more or less in the middle, indicating that its free cash flow growth is in-line with the industry averages.The collective takeaway from both the axes here is that Alibaba is a mediocre performer in terms of free cash flow growth but its shares are trading at a premium nonetheless. There are in fact 4 other stocks in the e-commerce industry that are growing free cash flows at a rate faster than Alibaba, but their shares still trading at a lower EV/FCF multiple.It’s not like the business prospects are improving or signaling impending growth for Alibaba, either. Much like the US, analysts and rating agencies have been slashing GDP growth forecasts for China almost every other week. This deteriorating macroeconomic environment is bound to limit personal disposable income and hinder consumer spending across major economies, which will inevitably weigh down on Alibaba’s business. We’re already seeing analysts slashing their revenue estimates for the company and I contend that more cuts shall follow in the coming 2 to 3 months at the very least.Data byYChartsWhat exacerbates the problem is that we don’t know how far along will revenue expectations drop for Alibaba. Maybe 2 months down the line, we’d have slashed our revenue estimates for Alibaba by $10 billion or maybe it'll be $30 billion, we just don’t know. This heightened uncertainty amidst growing recessionary fears, makes it difficult for anyone to call a bottom for an e-commerce company such as Alibaba. So, this is another major reason why we think we’re seeing short interest spike in the company’s shares of late.BusinessQuant.comThere’s another variable at play here. US auditors flew to Hong Kong a few weeks ago to conduct audit inspections on US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba. These inspections are likely to last from 8-12 weeks and will reveal if Alibaba is audited in accordance with the US GAAP or if there are irregularities in its reporting. If it’s the latter, then it’ll fuel further fear, uncertainty and doubt about the legitimacy of Alibaba’s growth prospects, and fuel speculation about the quantum of penalty that might be imposed by US regulators. This essentially means the moment of truth is fast approaching for US-listed Chinese companies such as Alibaba.Final ThoughtsThe takeaway here is that Alibaba’s shares are trading at a premium relative to its peers, despite heightened macroeconomic and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the name. This is likely why short interest in the name has been surging and will continue to do so in the coming weeks as well. So, I believe that investors may want to avoid the stock for the time being, as it looks set to fall further from the current levels. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"defaultTab":"posts","isTTM":false}